#AIUI

[adhdo5]

I mean they do do that it's just a locked room

[acumensmedia]

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[impishdullahan]

Well now I'm curious what the Baltic is to Non-Avian's Proto-Indo-European, or the Icelandic to Old Norse. Ie. which bird is thought to retain the greatest number or basal features even if they have some radical changes no other bird has

“Did you know chicken is the closet living relative of trex”

Yeah and? that shouldn’t be an insult!! Have those people ever met a chicken!! Anyone who’s ever worked with those little killing machines never use chicken to mean cowardice

They’d eat YOU if they could get away with it !!

never mind that every bird is the closest living relative of t. rex

[caesarsaladinn]

where did the suggestion of deep rest (in the sense of blacking out all your senses and trying to sleep for like 12-24 hours per day) as a long covid treatment come from?

[robustcornhusk]

i think my only other location of social media at the moment is strava

you can only post on strava if you've done an activity, but you can add pictures and video&c

a friend of mine, who seems to use it as their main form of social media, posts life updates on strava attached to random walks they take

i was going to say "it's like if tumblr only let you post if you had another chapter to your fanfiction" but i understand that's how some people use the author notes on the fanfiction website: sorry for the delay on the new chapter! i moved/got hit by a car/went to jail, etc

[tanadrin]

do polls of the whole country tell us anything? don't you need to look at swing states?

National polls aren't useless, because movement in polls tends to correlate. If a national poll moves a couple points in one direction or another, that will tend to correlate with some degree of movement in several states. As I understand it, though, certain subgroups of states (e.g., ones with similar demographics) have much closer correlations in how their polls move, so that a shift in the polls in one Sun Belt state should correspond to a similar shift in the polls in another. This means you can make predictions like "If Donald Trump wins Virginia, he's probably winning a crushing victory nationally," because his performance in Virginia should correlate to his performance in many other states.

Swing state polls are very valuable, but keeping those correlations in mind helps to understand whether a swing state poll is an outlier or not. If a poll shows a shift in a certain direction, but that's not correlated with similar movement in similar states, it's worth questioning of that poll is accurate. Ditto if the poll shows unusual breakdown of results in demographic subgroups: if Trump is winning (say) 30% of young black voters, given the way demographics and party alignment usually break down, he should be winning a massive margin with other groups.

One reason I am not so bearish on Biden is that my understanding is that a lot of polls have had these demographic anomalies, with Trump's lead coming largely from support among younger, politically disengaged voters of color, and Biden, apparently, doing well with demographics like older whites. It is not a coincidence, in this view, that Trump seems to be performing unusually well with demographics that are particularly hard to poll in the modern polling landscape--response rates to telephone polls are very low among millennials and gen Z--and while there are various ways you can try to compensate for non-response bias, those depend on your model of the electorate.

Now, I am not extremely confident about this, because I am the furthest thing in the world from a polling expert, but as I understand it, there are two possible situations here:

One: the polls are broadly correct, and Trump is ahead. The election in November, if current trends continue, will feature a historic realignment of voters along demographic lines like age and race of the likes not seen since the 1960s (called "depolarization" by some commentators), perhaps driven by the rise in far-right internet media and social media.

Two: the polls are broadly incorrect, and we should be more agnostic about the state of the race, or even assume Biden is a little ahead, because such a massive realignment is extremely unlikely to have occurred in only two years since the 2022 midterms (where no such realignment was in evidence, and Democrats broadly overperformed polls), and polling right now is plagued by historically low response rates in the same key demographics that give Trump his lead.

Some commentators, including commentators whose field is polling, seem to want to have it both ways: the demographic crosstabs are wrong, but the top-line polling numbers are right. I'm not sure how this can be true. On top of that, big political realignments usually take time (i.e., we should have at minimum seen some evidence of this coming in 2022), and are unlikely to occur in a race where both candidates have been president before.

So on balance I think the second scenario is more likely. Now, I am not a stats person, nor particularly knowledgeable about polls; all of this opinion is second-hand from other commentators. As such, I am not going to claim any kind if ironclad certainty about this, and you're perfectly entitled to rub it in my face if I turn out to be totally wrong. And if I do stumble across someone who does know the polls really well with an explanation of why I'm wrong (even just at the level of "you are factually wrong, here's why the crosstabs are actually perfectly normal") I may well revise my opinion.

[collapsedsquid]

LA conservatives wanting to elect as mayor the guy who built the fireproof mall because of how good at resisting fire he is but also nobody better demand any expensive fireproofing when they rebuild their houses.

[caesarsaladinn]

this is apparently satire but could you imagine. NINJA mortgage on heaven. celestial subprime loans. massive divine cash infusions when it turns out the customers didn't accept Jesus properly, the deals went bad, and now Gabriel stands to lose millions.

They’re trying to do settler colonialism with the afterlife

[unconventiononthelawofthesea]

I guess something like the ancient Norse thing where thralls would have thralls of their own is possible. I don't know any present societies structured like this. do any exist?

[adhdo5]

How do you have three children including two sons and not one valid heir among them.png

[aorish]

my evil thought is there are enough weak-willed moral patients out there unwilling to take responsibility for their own lives that you could in fact get people to pay to sign their rights away to you and enter into indentured servitude so long as you convincingly promised to take care of them and not let anyone hurt them.

i mean its really just marriage with extra steps but the kids these days get the ick about sex and children anyway so perhaps this is an acceptable modern substitute.

[ardl]

how did cobalt bcome the element of discussion wrt mining & extractionism in drc?

[robustcornhusk]

okay, with six pairs of completely untouched backup shoes, even conservatively, i'm good until some time next year on favorite running shoe

at that time i think i'd be better served to find a new favorite shoe, rather than continuing to find new-old stock of old/current favorite shoe

[neil-gaiman]

(first off: I'm not an astronomer, and I may be wildly off, but…) I had always assumed that "This too was incorrect. By almost a quarter of an hour", on the first page of Good Omens, was a throwaway joke. Today I realised it might actually be a reference; was it?

AIUI, Ussher said that although the creation occurred on the autumn equinox (22 September), he gave the date as 21 October to account for the drift caused by the Julian calendar, which was in use in Ireland at that time. I think he also said that it occurred at 9am Irish time, because that's noon in Jerusalem.

What just occurred to me is that Irish civil time is calculated from the Greenwich meridian. But Ussher lived in Armagh, 6.55° west of Greenwich. The solar time in Armagh at noon in Jerusalem is 9:19am and on 21 October is 9:11am. So 9am is off by almost a quarter of an hour.

Thanks for all the happy memories and the solidarity over the years.

I just want to show this to Terry Pratchett.

[lepertamar]

#a lot of it is sort of assimilative to what the author sees as the Default Normal Culture if that makes sense

I really wish queer media recommendations were more clear on if a thing actively engages with queerness vs just passively features queer characters, rather than the current & nebulous "queernorm" and "not queernorm"...