#Bates and Duggar timeline

[thefundiemuseum]

Jason Duggar and Claire Langdon Courtship Speculation

I made the mistake of visiting the DS subreddit (as I do from time to time), and I saw that folks having been following Claire Langdon’s Pinterest as part of the Duggar-Langdon Courtship Speculation. 

That sent me down the rabbit hole of looking at evidence of Claire Langdon and Jason Duggar’s supposed courtship. 

So. . . here we go.

The earliest photo I can find of them is from Katie Bates Clark’s wedding in Dec 2021.

Then they are seen together several times in spring and summer of 2022.

Around this time, there was also the blurry photo of a blonde young woman (Claire?) talking to a Duggar lost boy (Jason?) at Lawson and Tiffany’s wedding, but I don’t think anyone was officially ID’d in that pic.  In May 2022, Kelly Jo Bates posted a super detailed IG post about Claire’s graduation, leading to lots of speculation about WHY she cared so much about this girl who wasn’t--as far as we know--even dating one of her sons.

After the summer of 2022, things go quiet for a while. There’s a Langdon wedding in early 2023 where the Duggars are in attendance, and then more photos of Claire and Jason together in the spring.

And, of course, there’s the thing that started this stupid rabbit hole for me: Claire’s Pinterest.

While I can’t say for certain what “Comers duggars” means, I assume it’s a play on “comer” in Spanish, as it’s a collection of recipes. Is she planning things to cook for a crowded family gathering? Who knows.

She also has a bunch of pins of RVs, which would be very on-brand for a new Duggar bride. 

The only thing that gives me pause is. . . what’s the hold up? She’s graduated. He’s doing construction (I think). They’ve known each other quite a while. It just seems off compared to the usual Duggar courtship-to-engagement-to-wedding timeline. 

[goodthoughts001]

Breaking Amish Season 3 Episode 10 Recap: The Light at the End of the NYC Tunnel

Breaking Amish Season 3 Episode 10 marked the end of this fall’s run for the TLC show, as the journey came to an end for the Fab Five from Amish County. For any business translation inquiries, contact Translation Company UK

What did we learn on the third season finale? How did they leave it?

Many things happened on Breaking Amish Season 3 Episode 10.

Perhaps most notably, Matt became a father for the first time.

If you watch Breaking Amish online, however, you know this is more complicated than traditional first-time parenthood for so many reasons with Matt.

Not only did he Break Amish, but his conduct in Brooklyn has been questionable from the start, and the birth of his child also puts him at a life crossroads.

What decision will he make with regard to his music career?

Speaking of complex relationships and tough decisions, Bates confronted Rena about the newest challenging wrinkle to impact the couple’s future.

Barbie also to make a choice that would change her life forever, with the stakes higher than we can possibly imagine and the finality of it all looming large.

So what happened? What did they all decide to do?

The answer can be found when you follow the link above to see Breaking Amish Season 3 Episode 10. Just be forewarned, it can get a little intense.

Jill Duggar, Derick Dillard Post #BabyDilly Ultrasound Pic: See What He’s Doing in There!

Derick Dillard and Jill Duggar Dillard of TLC’s 19 Kids & Counting fame shared the first photo of their baby son ahead of his anticipated March arrival.

Yes, they posted an adorable ultrasound picture of #BabyDilly!

“I am keeping his ultrasound pictures safe … it is so exciting to look at this picture,” Jill tells People, adding that the little one “is moving and kicking now.”

“It’s crazy to realize I have this wonderful baby boy inside me.”

Jill and Derick wed June 21, and just a few weeks later revealed her pregnancy. They saved their first kiss for the altar, and quickly made up for lost time.

The couple, ages 23 (her) and 25 (him), have set up a Duggar-Dillard baby registry and are taking childbirth classes to prepare for a natural home birth.

“I am learning a lot about birth,” says Derick. “We are doing our homework together, and I keep reading new things, the medical aspects are fascinating to me.”

“I’m a Boy Scout. Being prepared is my motto,” he adds of staying ready for anything for his now-22-weeks pregnant wife. “I’m going to be prepared.”

Jill Duggar and Derick Dillard say they are working together to practice relaxation techniques together and write out their birth plan as a united front.

“We are really on the same page,” says the midwife by trade. “The more Derick learns about birth, the more he feels that natural childbirth makes sense.”

“Derick’s been great at helping me with relaxation, and really supportive. He’s an amazing husband, he’ll be awesome when our baby is born. He already is.”

Did you like Jill Duggar & Derick Dillard Photos: True Love Timeline? If so, please share:Get more content like this delivered to your inbox for FREE:

Until that day arrives next spring, the couple’s routine includes singing “Jesus Loves Me” each night to the baby and writing in a journal for their son.

“Right now, we’re just looking forward to him coming and preparing with classes,” Jill says. “After the holidays, then we’ll get started on the nursery.”

We can’t wait for her next updates and baby bump pics. In the meantime, watch 19 Kids and Counting online and relive their road to the altar via TLC!

[fundiebabynamebible]

Duggar Bates 2017 Timeline

It’s been a busy few years for the Duggar and Bates families with many courtships, weddings and births. I thought it would be ‘fun’ (aka extremely stressful) to make a timeline of each year to look back on and reminisce over these precious memories the Lord blessed us all with. There is a lot to remember so if I have forgotten anything, please let me know.

Lets start with 2017.

January 

5th - The fifth Season of Bringing Up Bates begins to air on UPTV

16th - The fourth season of Counting On begins to air on TLC

26th - John and Alyssa Webster welcome their second child, a daughter named Lexi Mae

February

6th - Jessa and Ben Seewald welcome their second child and son, Henry Wilberforce

9th - Tori Bates announces she is courting Bobby Smith

27th - The finale of the fourth season of Counting On airs on TLC

March

2nd - Joy Duggar announces he is engaged to Austin Forsyth

8th - Joseph Duggar announces he is courting Kendra Caldwell

April

13th - The finale of the fifth season of Bringing Up Bates airs on UPTV

May

26th - Joy Duggar marries Austin Forsyth. Joe Duggar gets engaged to Kendra Caldwell.

June

1st - The sixth season of Bringing Up Bates begins to air on UPTV

17th - The fifth season of Counting On begins to air on TLC

25th - Michaela Keilen shares a post on her blog about her infertility

July

8th - Jill and Derick Dillard welcome their second child, a son named Samuel Scott, via emergency c-section.

24th - The finale of the fifth season of Counting On airs on TLC

August

9th - Jill and Derick Dillard announce they’re moving back to Arkansas permanently following two years living in Central America for mission work

30th - Joy and Austin Forsyth announce they’re expecting their first child

September

8th - Joe Duggar marries Kendra Caldwell

11th - The sixth season of Counting On airs on TLC

12th - Josh and Anna Duggar welcome their 5th child, a son named Mason Garrett

14th - The finale of the sixth season of Bringing Up Bates airs on UPTV

21st - Tori Bates and Bobby Smith announce they’re engaged

October

17th - Erin and Chad Paine announce they’re expecting their third child, a daughter named Everly Hope. She is due in April 2018.

23rd - The finale of the sixth season of Counting On airs on TLC

November

9th - John and Alyssa Webster announce they’re expecting their third child, a girl, and she is due in April 2018.

11th - TLC announce Derick Dillard will no longer appear in Counting On after he writes transphobic tweets directing to Jazz Jennings

December

15th - Derick Dillard announces that he and his family will no longer appear in Counting On

16th - Tori Bates marries Bobby Smith

18th - Joe and Kendra Duggar announce they’re expecting their first child, due in June 2018

[duggardata]

Holy Crap, Lawson is Married.

Data, ESOQ, and When To Expect Baby #1.

On Thursday (?!), May 12, 2022, William “Lawson” Bates, 29, and Tiffany Lian Espensen, 23, tied the knot aboard a yacht in San Diego, California.  (Duggar Data totally called that they’d get married on a boat! Lol.)  Guests included a slew of Predictor People, including most of Bateses and a healthy sprinkling of Duggars.  (Oh, and don’t forget Tiffany’s family!)

People was first to report the nuptials.  Lawson told the tabloid—

“This day has superseded all expectations I have ever had. I could have never even dreamed of marrying someone so kind, sincere and passionate about life as Tiffany! She has the absolute most beautiful heart, and I'm so blessed that God chose to bring us together.”

Read on for a full data analysis!

Relationship Recap

Lawson + Tiffany met through the magic of social media.  Per Lawson, Tiffany had written an article about “faith in the spotlight,” which he “randomly” read.  (Here’s the article.)  Intrigued, he found Tiffany on Instagram a few days later, and “slid into her DMs.”  From there, they started talking on FaceTime “every day for a month,” until they met in–person.  Duggar Data would consider that ‘talking prior to meeting’ stage to be Lawson + Tiffany’s Pre–Courtship.  And after that, up until he proposed, would be their Courtship.

Okay...  Dates.  When did this happen?  Well, it seems they became “official” back in September 2020—September 21, 2020, to be exact.  Based on that, Duggar Data is going to use that as their Courtposal Date.  Counting back 1 Month, let’s use mid–August (August 16, 2020) as an Approximate Pre–C.S. Date, since we know they talked “for a month” before they met.

Duggar Data acknowledges that Lawson + Tiffany’s relationship might not’ve been a “courtship,” or at least wasn’t called that, but it is ultimately irrelevant.  We can still categorize the stages of their relationship as Pre–C.S., Courtship, Engagement, etc.  The Bateses have been moving away from the “courtship” terminology, but the “talking,” officially dating, engaged, and married phases remain, more or less, the same.

Data gets easier after Lawson + Tiffany after they went public in Early 2021...  We known their exact Proposal Date (October 26, 2021) and, of course, the Wedding Date (May 12, 2022).

Effect on Bates Data  (Relationship Timeline)

Okay, let’s crunch some numbers!  Based on the Pre–Courtship, Courtposal, Proposal, and Weddings Dates discussed above, here’s how long Lawson + Tiffany spent at each relationship stage—

Pre–Courtship   ~36 Days

Courtship   400 Days

Engagement   198 Days

And, the total time from Courtship to Marriage was 598 Days (1.64 Years).

How does this compares to Lawson’s Siblings?  Glad you asked...  Omitting Lawson + Tiffany’s data, it is Bates–typical for the Pre–C.S. to last 311 Days, Courtship to last 263 Days, and Engagement to last 141 Days.  Factoring the Lawson + Tiffany data back in, here’s how things shift—

Average Pre–C.S.   280 Days  (–31 Days)

Average Courtship   272 Days  (+9 Days)

Average Engagement   147 Days  (+6 Days)

Average CS to Marriage   424 Days  (+20 Days)  

As for records...  Lawson + Tiffany didn’t set any.  Their Pre–Courtship wasn’t the shortest; Michaela + Brandon’s was, at 31 Days.  Nor was their Courtship the longest; Josie + Kelton’s was, at 413 Days.  And their Engagement wasn’t the longest, either; Carlin + Evan’s was, at 245 Days.

Effect on Bates Data  (Age Gap / Age at C.S.)

Lawson’s DOB is July 27, 1992 and Tiffany’s is February 10, 1999.  Doing the math, the Age Gap is 2,389 Days (6.54 Years), with Lawson being older.  On their Courtposal Date, Lawson was Ave 28.15 and Tiffany was Age 21.61.

Again, let’s compare that to the rest of the Bates Data.  Omitting Law + Tiff’s data, a Bates–typical Age Gap is 2.33 Years, with the man being older, and a typical Age at Courtship is 23.22 for Males and 20.78 for Females.  Factoring Lawson + Tiffany’s data back in, here’s their impact—

Average Age Gap   2.63 Years, Favoring The Man  (+110 Days)

Average Age at C.S. (Males)   23.63 Years  (+150 Days)   

Average Age at C.S. (Females)   20.85 Years  (+25 Days)     

Lawson set a new Bate record for Oldest at Courtship (Male), at 28.15 Years.  The record was previously held by Nathan (27.13 Years). 

Procreative Potential / ESOQ

Tiffany was adopted.  We know nothing about her biological mother.  Due to this, we’ll use the default Fertility Cut–Off for Tiffany—assuming she is fertile until Age 40.00.

Tiffany will be 40 Years Old on February 10, 2039.  She got married today, on May 12, 2022.  Doing the math, her Total Marital Fertility (TMF) (Wedding to Fertility Cut–Off) is 6,118 Days.  Here’s how that stacks up against the rest of the Bates Wives—

Lawson + Tiffany (Espensen) Bates   6,118 Days

Michaela (Bates) + Brandon Keilen   7,119 Days

Zach + Whitney (Perkins) Bates   7,221 Days

Nathan + Esther (Keyes) Bates   7,446 Days

Erin (Bates) + Chad Paine   8,314 Days

Tori (Bates) + Bobby Smith  8,502 Days

Katie (Bates) + Travis Clark   8,805 Days

Gil + Kelly Jo (Callaham) Bates   8,810 Days

Carlin (Bates) + Evan Stewart   8,820 Days  

Alyssa (Bates) + John Webster   9,398 Days

Josie (Bates) + Kelton Balka   9,532 Days

As you can see, it’s a new record.  (Some of you are probably wondering why her TMF is so low.  It’s not; everyone else’s is just high.  The Bates Daughters have a late Fertility Cut–Off [Age 45.27], due to Kelly’s Data.  Similar deal with Esther, whose Mom last gave birth at Age 44.41.  And while Whitney’s Fertility Cut–Off is also the default [40.00], she got married a lot younger than Tiffany.)

But don’t fret, Lawson + Tiffany!  It’s all fine.  Assuming a Bates–typical pace, y’all still have an ESOQ of 11 Children.   

When To Expect Bates–Espensen #1

As of their Wedding Day, here’s what the Predictor forecasts—

Baby News   October 11, 2022

Sex Reveal   November 16, 2022

Due Date   April 4, 2023

Date of Birth   March 27, 2023      

[keepingupwithfundies]

Putting aside that Justin and Claire are kids...

Did Justin move to Texas as a minor? Lived with another family unsheltered?? Does that mean he finished high school early? I know nothing happened but still all by himself in another state seems risky, even for the Duggars. Whenever the Bates or Duggars visit each other there's always a few at a time to keep Jesus the chaperone around

The Duggars tend to “finish high school” around 16 years old, so my guess is Justin finished in a generally Duggar typical timeline. Claire also confirmed this in an instagram comment: “he’s been graduated for quite a while” 

As for living in another state before turning 18, I don’t actually think that’s risky at all (putting aside the socializing the Spiveys are doing during a pandemic. THAT of course is risky). It’s not uncommon for college freshman to go to school at 17 years old, and in high school, I has a few good friends who were foreign exchange students living with host families. This doesn’t seem like a wildly different situation to me. And the Spiveys seem just as capable of chaperoning and preventing any pre-martial hanky panky as the Duggars, and the families have a longstanding relationship. I just don’t really see any risks here. Plus, we’ve seen James there and the Duggar family was there at the engagement party.  Ben also lived on the Duggar property to be closer to Jessa during courtship, so it doesn’t seem like an uncommon thing for a fundie guy a-courtin’ to do. Not that I like the reason for living out of state, obviously, as I really wish that Justin want getting married immediately after turning 18. But I just think a 17 year old living with a family out of state isn’t inherently risky (other than, ya know, the whole Covid situation)

-T 

[spurgie-cousin]

I dont really follow the Bates as much as the Duggars. Please explain why Lawson Bates grates on people so much?! Thanks :)

He's basically every annoying social media stereotype rolled into a big ball and then dusted with Christianity

On Twitter he likes to get political and tweets things that in the past have been homophobic, transphobic, sexist, pro-Trump, etc. He retweets a lot of far-right politicians, so his timeline is basically shitty political stuff mixed with this kind of corny crap:

His instagram is basically 90% posed pictures of himself, which range from 'ok Lawson' to

He's also a musician and even though he's 27 years old every song he writes sounds like he's a 15 y/o girl who got dumped for the first time and just learned how to play guitar.

Essentially, he's a mega cornball with bad opinions.

[fundiebabynamebible]

The Duggar/Bates 2019 Timeline

IT’S BABYGEDDON TIME!!!

January

9th - Jessa and Ben Seewald announce they’re expecting their third child

February

7th - Zach and Whitney Bates reveal they suffered a miscarriage in Summer 2018

11th - Josiah and Lauren Duggar reveal they suffered a miscarriage in fall 2018 (Date of loss later confirmed to be 4th October, 2018)

13th - Josie and Kelton Balka announce they’re expecting their first child, due July 2019

March

28th - Josie and Kelton Balka announce they’re expecting a baby girl named Willow Kristy after Kelton’s late Mom

April

11th - Joe and Kendra Duggar announce they’re expecting their second child

21st -  Amy (Duggar) and Dillon King announce they’re expecting their first child, due in October 2019

26th - Josh and Anna Duggar announce they’re expecting their sixth child, due Fall 2019

May

1st - Joy and Austin Forsyth announce they’re expecting their second child, due in November 2019

9th - Zach and Whitney Bates announce they’re expecting their third child, due November 2019

20th - Josiah and Lauren Duggar announce they’re expecting their second child, due Fall 2019

25th - Carlin Bates marries Evan Stewart

26th - Jessa and Ben Seewald welcome their third child, a daughter named Ivy Jane

June

6th - Chad and Erin Paine announce they’re expecting their fourth child, due December 2019

9th - Grandma Duggar dies

18th - Grandma Duggar’s funeral takes place

20th - Josh and Anna Duggar announce M6 is a baby girl

25th - Joe and Kendra Duggar announce their second child is a baby girl. Josiah and Lauren Duggar announce their first child is also a baby girl.

26th - Joy and Austin Forsyth miscarry their baby at 20 weeks gestation. The baby is a girl and they decide to name her Annabell Elise.

July

1st - Amy and Dillon King announce their first child is a baby boy

19th - Josie and Kelton Balka welcome their first child, a daughter named Willow Kristy

20th - Amy and Dillon King reveal their son will be named Daxton Ryan

August

1st - John and Abbie Duggar announce they’re expecting their first child

19th - John and Abbie Duggar announce their first child is a baby girl via TLC

September

4th - Carlin and Evan Stewart announce they’re expecting their first child, due February 2020

11th - Trace Bates announces he is courting Chaney Grace

October

5th - Carlin and Evan Stewart announce their first child is a baby girl and will be named Layla Rae

9th - Amy and Dillon King welcome their first child, Daxton Ryan

18th - Tori and Bobby Smith announce they’re expecting their second child in April 2020. The baby is a boy and will be named Kolter Grey. The spelling of Kolter’s middle name was later changed to Gray.

         Clockwise from top left: Khloé, Holland, Addison,  Maryella, Bella

November

2nd - Joe and Kendra Duggar welcome their second child, Addison Renee

3rd - Jed Duggar announces he is running for Arkansas State Representative District 29 (spoiler: he lost)

7th - Zach and Whitney Bates welcome their third child, Khloé Eileen

8th - Josiah and Lauren Duggar welcome their first child, Bella Milagro 

26th - Chad and Erin Paine welcome their fourth child, Holland Grace

27th - Josh and Anna Duggar welcome their sixth child, Maryella Hope

December

Nothing

I found it hard to choose who’s announcement to use for each month and I feel that I left some people out, so here are some more photo highlights from 2019.

[fundiebabynamebible]

Tori and Kendra’s Baby Race/Timeline

09.08.2017 - Joe and Kendra get married

September 2017 - Joe and Kendra conceive Duggar-Caldwell #1 (Garrett) during their honeymoon

12.16.2017 - Tori and Bobby get married

12.18.2017 - Joe and Kendra announce pregnancy with Duggar-Caldwell #1

February/March 2018 - Tori and Bobby conceive Smith #1 (Kade)

05.10.2018 - Tori and Bobby announce pregnancy with Smith #1

06.08.2018 - Joe and Kendra welcome Duggar-Caldwell #1 (Garrett David) 

11.09.2018 - Tori and Bobby welcome Smith #1 ( Robert Ellis ‘Kade’)

February 2019 - Joe and Kendra Conceive Duggar-Caldwell #2 (Addison), Garrett is 8 months old

04.11.2019 - Joe and Kendra announce pregnancy with Duggar-Caldwell #2

July 2019 - Tori and Bobby conceive Smith #2 (Kolter Gray), Kade is 8 months old

10.18.2019 - Tori and Bobby announce pregnancy with Smith #2

11.02.2019 - Joe and Kendra welcome Duggar-Caldwell #2 (Addison Renee)

03.25.2020 - Tori and Bobby welcome Smith #2 (Kolter Gray)

May 2020 - Joe and Kendra conceive Duggar Caldwell #3, Addison is 6 months old

08.19.2020 - Joe and Kendra announce pregnancy with Duggar-Caldwell #3

September 2020 - Tori and Bobby conceive Smith #3 (Charlotte Raine), Kolter is 5/6 months old

01.19.2021 - Tori and Bobby announce pregnancy with Smith #3 (Charlotte Raine)

February 2021 - Joe and Kendra expected to welcome Duggar-Caldwell #3

June 2021 - Tori and Bobby expected to welcome Smith #3 (Charlotte Raine) 

At the moment, it seems that Bobby and Tori are playing catch up but the gap is narrowing with 5 months between Garrett and Kade but 4 months between Addison/Kolter and Duggar-Caldwell #3 and Charlotte’s due dates.

N/B - Conception dates are approximates

[fundiebabynamebible]

The Duggar/Bates 2018 Timeline

January

3rd - Jinger and Jeremy Vuolo announce they’re expecting their first child

4th - Carlin Bates announces she is courting Evan Stewart, ahead of the premier of season seven of Bringing Up Bates that evening.

11th - Josie Bates announces she is courting Kelton Balka

23rd - Josiah Duggar announces he is courting Lauren Swanson (estimated courtship start date of January 6th, 2018)

February 

3rd - Joe and Kendra Duggar announce their first child is a boy

23rd - Joy and Austin Forsyth welcome their first child, Gideon Martyn, via emergency C-section

26th - The seventh season of Counting On premiers on TLC

March 

5th - Josiah Duggar announces he is engaged to Lauren Swanson

23rd - Joe and Kendra Duggar reveal their first child is due on Father’s Day, June 17th

26th - The finale of the seventh season of Counting On airs on TLC

28th - John and Alyssa Webster welcome their third child, Zoey Joy

30th - Chad and Erin Paine welcome their third child, Everly Hope

April

9th - Jinger and Jeremy Vuolo announce they’re expecting a baby girl

May

10th - Tori and Bobby Smith announce they’re expecting their first child, due in the fall

June 

8th - Joe and Kendra Duggar welcome their first child, Garrett David

19th - Josie Bates gets engaged to Kelton Balka

21st -  The finale of the seventh season of Bringing Up Bates airs on UPTV

26th - John Duggar announces he is courting Abbie Burnett

30th - Josiah Duggar marries Lauren Swanson

July 

17th - John Duggar gets engaged to Abbie Burnett

19th - Jinger and Jeremy Vuolo welcome their first child, Felicity Nicole

30th - The eighth season of Counting On premiers on TLC 

August 

Nothing

September

22nd - Carlin Bates gets engaged to Evan Stewart

October 

1st - The finale of the eighth season of Counting On airs on TLC

5th - Josie Bates marries Kelton Balka

November

3rd - John Duggar marries Abbie Burnett

9th - Tori and Bobby Smith welcome their first child,  Robert Ellis IV "Kade" 

December

Nothing

[fundiebabynamebible]

Firstly, I’ve spent the past three hours doing the 2019 Duggar/Bates timeline. I forgot just how busy the year was.

Secondly, Balka #2′s name predictions for a boy will be up tomorrow morning.

[fundiebabynamebible]

When are you posting the 2019 timeline?

When Kendra announces she’s had the baby. I want to space them out a little more. It's a busy one though.

[duggardata]

In Other News...

Duggar Data has been so focused on the trial lately, the following events never got the Posts they deserve...

Anna (Keller) Duggar Gave Birth To M7

Madyson Lily Duggar was born on Saturday, October 23, 2021.  (But, the birth wasn’t publicly announced until November 16th.)  She is the 7th, and Final (?), Child of Anna (Keller) + Joshua Duggar.

Josh + Anna did a combined Pregnancy Announcement + Sex Reveal on April 23, 2021, less than a week before Josh’s arrest on federal CSAM charges.  No Due Date information was ever revealed, other than Anna being due “this fall.”  As a result, it’s impossible to do any kind of analyses for Timing of Pregnancy Announcement, Sex Reveal, or Due Date vs. Delivery.

Madyson was born 696 Days After M7, Maryella Hope.  Factoring in Madyson, Josh + Anna’s Procreative Pace (PP) stands at 726 Days (~1.99 Years).

Given recent events, Duggar Data won’t be predicting for Josh + Anna, for the foreseeable future.  (And, honestly, I doubt there will ever be an M8.)

Lawson Bates + Tiffany Espensen Got Engaged

On October 26, 2021, William “Lawson” Bates, 29, proposed to his girlfriend, Tiffany Lian Espensen, 22, during an impromptu trip to Italy.  She said yes, of course, and they’re now in wedding planning mode.

TBH, Duggar Data is slight unclear on their relationship timeline, and will hold off on analyzing the length of each relationship stage, hoping they will reveal more on Bringing Up Bates.

As for when they’ll get married...  As of now, the average Bates Engagement lasts 141 Days (~20 Weeks).  If Lawson + Tiffany are Bates–typical, they wed on March 16, 2022; however, that’s a Wednesday, so let’s adjust that to March 18, 2022, a Friday.  If they are on the early side of typical (–1 SD), they would marry on January 14, 2022.  If they’re on the late side of typical (+1 SD), they’ll tie the knot on May 14, 2022.     

Katie (Bates) + Travis Clark Got Married

Katie (Bates) + Travis Clark wed on Friday, December 3, 2021, after 890 Days together—240 Engaged, 394 Courting, and 256 Pre–Courting.

Currently, the typical Bates Newlywed become parents after just 315 Days (or 10.35 Months); this varies by a SD of just 39 Days.  If Katie + Travis are 100% typical, here’s what we can expect for Clark #1—

Baby News   April 26, 2022

Due Date   October 22, 2022

Birthdate   October 14, 2022

[duggardata]

Esther Keyes Said “Yes.”

Get The Data Here.

On Saturday, May 22, 2021, Kenneth Nathaniel (“Nathan”) Bates, 27, proposed to Esther Joy Keyes, 23, in Orlando, Florida.  She said ‘yes,’ surprising no one.  Bizarrely, Fox News got the exclusive—a first for the Bateses or Duggars.  They reported the news on May 24, 2021 (Today / Monday).

Read on for the data!

Relationship Timeline

First Meeting.   According to Nathan on Bringing Up Bates (4–29–21), “Tis The Season For Surprises,” he and Esther met at “a mutual friend’s wedding.”  This seems to have occurred around December 2019, since he was telling the story in December 2020 (Christmastime), and said it happened about a year prior.  It didn’t take Nathan long to fall for Esther; apparently, he professed his feelings for her after only a week of talking.

Relatedly...  Does anyone know of any wedding that Nathan / the Bateses went to in December 2019?  I can’t think of one, and a cursory glance at Fundie Wiki and Free Jinger didn’t immediately narrow it down. 

Pre–Courtship.   Okay, so this one’s tricky.  From Nathan’s POV, they probably began pre–courting, like, immediately, since he announced his feeling after just one week.  However, from the way Nathan tells the story, it seemed that Esther didn’t immediately reciprocate those feelings.  It took a little longer for her—he didn’t say exactly how long—but, eventually, she came around.  Given this, I’m thinking the logical way to approach this would be to set the Pre–C.S. Date on the day, whatever it is, that Esther told Nathan she wanted to be with him, too.

So...  When is that date?  Well, we don’t know.  Previously, I was using April 12, 2020 as a Pre–Courtship Date for them, based on them listing that as the start of their relationship on Facebook.  To me, it seems quite significant that they’d list a date like that...  So, I’m tempted to still use it.  I’m also nearly certain that that date coincides with a visit by Nathan to see Esther in Pennsylvania, which would make sense.  I’m thinking she admitted her feelings in person, maybe.

Anyway, TL;DR...  We don’t really know.  Duggar Data is using April 12, 2020.

Courtship.   Facebook evidence points to October 14, 2020 as their Courtposal Date.  This was then confirmed by Nathan on Bringing Up Bates (4–29–21), “Tis The Season For Surprises,” when he stated:  “I asked Esther to be my girlfriend on her birthday.”  (Her birthday is October 14.)  So...  Apparently, they began an official courtship on October 14, 2020.  Duggar Data considers it ‘confirmed.’

Engagement.   Per Fox News’s exclusive, Nathan proposed on May 22, 2021.  That date is ‘confirmed.’

Length of Each Relationship Stage

Based on the dates above, their Pre–Courtship lasted ~185 Days (~6 Months), while their Courtship lasted 220 Days (~7 Months).

Excluding Nathan + Esther, a ‘typical’ Bates Couple pre–courted for 303 Days.  (The range is 31 Days [Michaela + Brandon] to 586 Days [Erin + Chad].  A Pre–C.S. in the 300–Day range is most typical, with 3 Bates Couples [Tori + Bobby, Carlin + Evan, and Josie + Kelton] all pre–courting for between 300–399 Days.)  The Standard Deviation (SD) was 174 Days.

Factoring in Nathan + Esther, it is now Bates–typical to pre–court for 289 Days (–2 Weeks) and the SD decreased to 167 Days, indicating more consistency. 

Prior to Nathan + Esther, a ‘typical’ Bates Couple courted for 269 Days, before getting engaged.  That is ~9 Months.  (The range is 71 Days [Alyssa + John] to 469 Days [Erin + Chad].)  The SD was 156 Days.

Adding in Nathan + Esther’s data, it’s now Bates–typical to court for 263 Days (–6 Days) and the SD decreased to 147 Days, indicating more consistency.

Age at Courtship / Age Gap

Nathan’s DOB is August 29, 1993.  Esther’s DOB is October 14, 1997.  Nathan is 4.13 Years (1,507 Days) Older than Esther, and that’s their Age Gap.  Nathan + Esther started courting on October 14, 2020, at the following ages—

Her Age at C.S.   23.00 Years

His Age at C.S.   27.13 Years  

Before Nathan + Esther, a typical Bates Couple had an Age Gap of 2.18 Years, favoring the man.  (It ranges from 0.42 Years / Woman Older [Katie + Travis] to 4.97 Years / Man Older [Alyssa + John].)  The SD was 1.90 Years.

Factoring in Nathan + Esther, the typical Age Gap shifts is now 2.33 Years, with the man being older.  The SD barely shifted, moving from 1.90 to 1.89 Years.

As for Age at C.S. for Males and Females...  Prior to Nathan + Esther, a ‘typical’ Bates (or Bates In–Law) began courting at Age 22.83 (for Males) and Age 20.56 (for Females).  (For Males, the range went from Age 19.00 [Travis] to Age 25.63 [Chad].  For Females, it was from Age 18.44 [Josie] to Age 23.93 [Michaela].)  It varied by SDs of 1.86 Years (Males) and 1.74 Years (Females).   

Factoring in Nathan + Esther...  Nathan set a new record for Oldest Male at CS, at Age 27.13.  Esther was also on the older side—but, at Age 23.00, she didn’t quite beat Michaela’s record (Age 23.93).  Their data shifts the average Ages at C.S. as follows—

Typical Age at C.S. (Bates Males)   Age 23.22 (+142 Days)   

Typical Age at C.S. (Bates Females)   Age 20.78 (+80 Days)      

When Will They Get Married?

Based on the weddings so far (Chad + Erin to Carlin + Evan), it’s Bates–typical to wed 125 Days after the proposal.  (It ranges from 89 Days [Zach + Whit and Tori + Bobby] to 245 Days [Carlin + Evan].)  It varied by a SD of 55 Days.  With this in mind, and assuming they’ll marry on a Friday or a Saturday, here’s when Nathan + Esther might tie the knot—

Exactly Average   September 24, 2021

Early (–1 SD)   July 31, 2021

Late (+1 SD)   November 19, 2021   

But, hold on.  Not so fast.  Recently, we learned that, after getting engaged on April 7, 2021, Katie Bates is planning to marry Travis Clark in December.  Their engagement is, thus, going to be significantly longer than is currently typical in the Bates Family.  This is worth factoring in, I think!  So, let’s just assume that Katie + Travis plan to marry in mid–December (December 16th).  Since that’s a Thursday, let’s go with December 17, 2021, instead.  With the Proposal Date of April 7, 2021, they’d have been engaged for 254 Days.  Factoring that estimate in, it would then be Bates–typical to be engaged for 141 Days.  And the SD will increase to 68 Days.  Based on this data, and again assuming the wedding will be on a Friday or Saturday, here’s when Nathan + Esther might wed—

Exactly Average   October 9, 2021

Early (–1 SD)   July 31, 2021 or August 6, 2021

Late (+1 SD)   December 17, 2021

That’s the official Predictor guess, as it’s already factoring in Katie + Travis.  We will see, though!  I’ve heard the rumor about Nathan + Esther possibly planning a Spring 2022 Wedding...  Now that would be a long engagement!

[duggardata]

The Next 6 Months:  March—August 2021

Here we go again...  Your monthly installment of The Next 6 Months.  Coming up—

What happened in February 2021?  Was it early, late, or what?

Did anyone miss a deadline in February?  Who?  For what?

Overall, who’s late, and for what?  What’s the rescheduled date?

What’s expected to happen from now through August 2021?

Latest Events—

Quite a lot as happened, recently!

Justin Duggar + Claire Spivey married in Texas on February 26, 2021. They’d been engaged since November 10, 2020. 

Erin (Bates) Paine confirmed that, due to recent ovarian surgery, she’s unlikely to have more biological children.  The Predictor will not predict any further pregnancies for Erin + Chad.

Nurie (Rodrigues) + Nathan Keller announced their 1st Pregnancy on February 22, 2021, via Jill’s Facebook.  The Due Date is October 12.

Joe + Kendra (Caldwell) Duggar welcomed their 3rd Child—Brooklyn Praise—on February 19, 2021.  They announced with E! Online.

Josie (Bates) + Kelton Balka did the Sex + Name Reveal for Balka #2* on Instagram on February 18, 2021.  It’s a girl!  Hazel Sloane.

Jessa (Duggar) + Ben Seewald are expecting Baby #4 “this summer,” after suffering a miscarriage in 2020.  They announced on February 18, 2021, with Entertainment Tonight.

Allison (Bontrager) + Jeremiah Helferich are expecting!  They shared the news on February 17, 2021, via social media.  Helferich #1 is due in “late spring,” which presumably means May. 

Alyssa (Bates) + John Webster had their 4th Child and 4th Daughter, Maci Jo, on February 9, 2021.  They announced with People.

What’s Next?—

03–20–21   Denver Bontrager marries Praise Helferich.  (Confirmed)

03–25–21   Sierra + Mark Dominguez announce Pregnancy #8.  (1.5 SD Late)

03–26–21   Josiah + Lauren (Swanson) Duggar announce Pregnancy #2. (1 SD Late)

03–31–21   Esther (Keller) + John Shrader announce Pregnancy #13.

04–03–21   Carlin (Bates) + Evan Stewart announce Pregnancy #2.  (2 SDs Late)

04–09–21   Jesse + Anna (Craig) Maxwell announce Pregnancy #1.  (0.5 SD Late)

04–23–21   Travis Clark proposes to Katie Bates.  (1 SD Late)

04–30–21   Mary Maxwell starts courting.  (0.5 SD Late)

05–17–21   Helferich #1 born to Allison (Bontrager) + Jeremiah Helferich.

05–18–21   Kaylee Rodrigues starts courting.  (0.5 SD Late)

05–19–21   Courtney + Christopher Rogers announce Pregnancy #12.

05–22–21   Caldwell #9 born to Paul + Christina (Hamrick) Caldwell.

05–29–21   Trace starts courting.  (0.5 SD Late)

05–29–21   John + Chelsy (Bontrager) Maxwell announce Pregnancy #3.

06–07–21   Nurie (Rodrigues) + Nathan Keller do Keller–Rodrigues #1’s Sex Reveal.  (Keller Data)

06–12–21   Smith #3 (Charlotte Raine) born to Tori (Bates) + Bobby Smith.

06–13–21   John + Abbie (Burnett) Duggar announce Pregnancy #2.

06–17–21   Nurie (Rodrigues) + Nathan Keller do Keller–Rodrigues #1’s Sex Reveal.  (Rodrigues Data)

06–17–21   Kristen + Justin Young announce Pregnancy #4.

06–18–21   Bates–Perkins #4 (Jayden Carl) born to Zach + Whitney (Perkins) Bates.

06–18–21   Lauren Caldwell marries Titus Hall.  (Maybe)

06–22–21   Nathan Bates proposes to Esther Keyes.

06–22–21   Balka #2* (Hazel Slone) born to Josie (Bates) + Kelton Balka.

07–07–21   Josh + Anna (Keller) Duggar announce Pregnancy #7.

07–15–21   Seewald #4* born to Jessa (Duggar) + Ben Seewald.

08–04–21   Meagan (Forsyth) + Bobby Ballinger announce Pregnancy #4.

08–06–21   Priscilla (Keller) + David Waller announce Pregnancy #6.

08–13–21   Joy (Duggar) + Austin Forsyth announce Pregnancy #3.

08–27–21   Katie Bates marries Travis Clark.

08–28–21   Joshua + Cassidy (Bowers) Bontrager announce Pregnancy #3.

08–30–21   Stewart #2 born to Carlin (Bates) + Evan Stewart.

08–31–21   Justin + Claire (Spivey) Duggar announce Pregnancy #1.

08–31–21   Renee Rodrigues starts courting.

Note—Currently, Lawson and Nathan’s relationship timelines are very tentative.  Currently, I’m assuming that Lawson + Tiffany began pre–courting c. Christmas 2020, and Nathan + Esther started officially courting on October 14, 2020.

Nothing Predicted For—

Bateses   Michaela + Brandon, Erin + Chad, Lawson + Tiffany, Alyssa + John, Jackson to Jeb 

Bontragers   Mitchell + Bryn, Carson + Carolina, Taylor to Rebecca

Caldwells   Kendra + Joe, Micah to Isaiah

Duggars   Jana, Jill + Derick, Jinger + Jeremy, Joe + Kendra, Jedidiah to James, Jackson to Josie

Maxwells   Nathan + Melanie, Christopher + Anna Marie, Sarah, Joseph + Elissa, Anna

Rodriguii   Timothy, Phillip to Janessa

Other   Karissa + Mandrae Collins

[fundiebabynamebible]

The Duggar/Bates 2020 Timeline

January

7th - John and Abbie Duggar welcome their first child, Grace Annette

31st - Carlin and Evan Stewart welcome their first child, Layla Rae

February

22nd - Jill and Derick Dillard announce their eldest son, Israel, will be attending public school for Kindergarten. 

March 

10th - Katie Bates announces she is courting Travis Clark

18th - Joy and Austin Forsyth announce they’re expecting their second child following a miscarriage at 20 weeks gestation in June 2019. The baby is a girl and due in August 2020.

25th - Tori and Bobby Smith welcome their second child, Kolter Gray

April

Nothing

May

28th - Jinger and Jeremy Vuolo announce they’re expecting their second child following a miscarriage in November 2019. The baby is a girl and due in November 2020.

June

6th - Jinger and Jeremy Vuolo announce they’re starting a podcast

30th - Jason Duggar joins Instagram

July

Nothing

August

6th - John and Alyssa Webster announce they’re expecting their fourth child, due on 17th February 2021.

16th - Carlin and Evan Stewart reveal they are recovering from Covid-19

19th - Joe and Kendra Duggar announce they’re expecting their third child, due in February 2021

21st - Joy and Austin Forsyth welcome their baby girl

24th - Israel Dillard starts Kindergarten. He is the first child in the Duggar family to attend public school in over 30 years.

27th - Joy Forsyth announces her daughter’s name is Evelyn Mae

September 

9th - Josie and Kelton Balka announce they have suffered a miscarriage

12th - John and Alyssa Webster reveal their fourth child is a girl.

18th -  John and Alyssa Webster reveal their fourth child will be named Maci Jo.

21st - After months of speculation, Justin Duggar announces he is courting Claire Spivey.

30th - Jill and Derick Dillard reveal they’re using non-hormonal birth control. 

October

Nothing

November 

4th - Jed Duggar loses to Megan Godfrey in the election and fails to become the Arkansas State Representative for District 89

6th - James Duggar joins Instagram

13th - Christina and Paul Caldwell (Kendra Duggar’s parents) announce they’re expecting their ninth child

16th - Justin Duggar and Claire Spivey announce they’re engaged

22nd - Jinger and Jeremy Vuolo welcome their second child, Evangeline Jo

24th - Zach and Whitney Bates announce they’re expecting their fourth child, due in June 2021. Whitney caught Covid-19 whilst she was in the early stage of pregnancy but is being closely monitored by her doctor.

30th - Joe and Kendra Duggar announce their third child, due in February 2021, is a girl.

December

Nothing

[duggardata]

So...  When Did Trace + Chaney Start Courting?

So...  Trace + Chaney are apparently courting.  At this point, we seriously need some concrete dates for their relationship.  Right now, we’ve got zilch...  or, do we?  After a thorough review of all relevant Instagrams, I think I’ve got enough for a few data–based estimates.  Here is my best guess for their First Meeting, Pre–Courtship, and Courtship dates—

First Meeting

Trace + Chaney met 8 Months Ago, as of September 2019.  (This was reported by In Touch, when they announced that Trace + Chaney were “officially dating.”  It was also confirmed by Trace when, on September 11, 2019, he posted on IG:  “It has been a great 8 Months getting to know this beautiful girl [Chaney].”)

We also know that Trace met Chaney during a ski trip, because Kelly Jo Bates told us so in her ‘Happy Birthday’ IG Post to Chaney.  Kelly wrote, in that Post:  “I’m grateful God let our paths cross on that cold, winters wonderland ski trip.” A few days later, In Touch added that the trip in question was to Colorado.  On Instagram, Trace, Lawson, and Kelly Jo all posted about the trip.  Kelly actually tagged Chaney’s older sister, Chelsea Kahle, in her Post, thanked Chelsea “for taking pictures for us,” and said:  “It was a joy to meet your sweet family!”  

After some sleuthing, here’s what I was able to dig up about the exact timing of the Bates and Kahle trips—

The Bateses were in Colorado on (and around) January 10, 2019.  (They recorded the January 10, 2019 Live Chat at what appeared to be a cabin or ski house, and they mentioned that they were in Colorado, skiing.)

Bethany Kahle got engaged to her now–husband, Trenton, on January 9, 2019 in Granby, Colorado, a ski area.  (Duggar Data found this fact on the couple’s public wedding website.  Trace + Chaney attended the wedding, as well.  They both posted photos from the wedding on IG.)

Based on this Post on Chelsea Kahle’s Instagram, the Kahles might have left Colorado on January 13, 2019 (May 21, 2019 — 128 Days).  (Note—Chelsea’s IG is public.)

Since they met “8 Months Ago” in September 2019, Trace + Chaney must have met in January 2019.  While we don’t know the exact date, my sleuthing shows that the Bateses were in Colorado on (and around) January 10, while the Kahles were likely in Colorado on (and around) January 9–13.  Put differently:  We have evidence placing both families in Colorado on January 10, 2019.  That is what I will use for Trace + Chaney’s Estimated First Meeting date.

Pre–Courtship

Pre–Courtship is sort of a nebulous concept, but it’s clear that Trace + Chaney were ‘special friends’ by the Bates Family’s 2019 “I Love You Day” party.  (See Bringing Up Bates (9–19–19), “A Very Medieval ‘I Love You’ Day.”)  If Instagram can be trusted, that party occurred on (or about) February 17, 2019.  Since we know they were ‘special friends’ by then, that’ll be Trace + Chaney’s Estimated Pre–Courtship start date, until and unless better data becomes available.

Note that, thus far, your typical Bates announces a pre–courtship after about 6 Months (196 Days).  If the September 11, 2019 In Touch article was intended to announce Trace + Chaney’s pre–courtship (as opposed to courtship), it fits well with a February start date.  (September 11, 2019 — 196 Days = February 27.)

Courtship

This is the tricky one...  According to Kelly Bates, Trace + Chaney are courting.  She said so on the September 19, 2019 Bates Family Live Chat...  Specifically, she said:  “Trace just started courting.”  But what does that mean?  And, does that mean the In Touch article was actually a courtship announcement?  It’s all very confusing.  Let’s see if the data helps...

So far, the typical Bates waits 47 Days to publicly announce a courtship.  If the In Touch article was actually a courtship announcement, then perhaps Trace + Chaney’s courtship began 47 Days Prior, on July 26, 2019.

Alternately, the Predictor assumes a Bates–typical length pre–courtship before the ‘courtposal.’  Currently, it’s Bates–typical to pre–court for 301 Days.  If they started pre–courting on February 17, 2019, that data suggests the ‘courtposal’ would occur December 15, 2019.

... and that won’t work.  Apparently, they’re already courting!  So, maybe their relationship is moving at a faster pace (Average – 1 SD).  If that’s the case, the pre–courtship would only last 118 Days.  If it began on February 17, 2019, the courtposal might’ve occurred on June 15, 2019.

Honestly, it’s kind of creepy...  That’s actually the date I suspected, after taking a hard look at all the Instagram evidence.  Chaney posted a really suspicious–looking photo of her and Trace and a romantic sunset on June 15, 2019.  (Yes, that exact date.  Wild, right?)  Photos of Trace + Chaney really increased after that, too, as did instances where they were ‘confirmed’ as a couple.  Here’s an overly–detailed timeline—

6–15–19   Chaney posts a photo of her and Trace enjoying a sunset.  It’s met with many unsolicited “congratulations” by commenters assuming a courtposal.  Also, several Bateses commented on it.  Trace said:  “That’s one sunset I’ll never forget.”  Alyssa said:  “Y’all are perfect!”  Plus, Kelly Jo, Whitney, Katie, and Josie all commented approvingly.

6–16–19   Trace posts on IG that his “Sundays are brighter with [Chaney] in them.”

6–25–19   The Bates Family IG posts photos from a recent trip to Waco, TX.  Kelly gives a ‘photo credit’ to Chelsea Kahle, clearly indicating that the Bateses saw the Kahles during that trip.  (The Kahles live in Texas.)

7–2–19   A photo of Trace + Chaney at Chuck E. Cheese appears on the Bates Family IG.

7–6–19   Whitney posts a photo of Trace + Chaney at the Bates Family’s July 4th party in South Carolina.

7–11–19   Bates Sister Boutique refers to Chaney as “Trace’s girlfriend,” when asked (via comment) if she is dating a Bates.

8–10–19   Trace accompanies Chaney to her sister’s wedding in Texas. 

8–18–19   The Bates Family IG posts a photo of Trace + Chaney coupled up at yet another wedding (Abby Paine’s).

9–9–19   Kelly Jo wishes Chaney a ‘happy birthday’ on IG, saying:  “I’m looking forward to many more visits with you....  I’m sure Trace seconds that idea!”

9–11–19    In Touch exclusively reveals that Trace + Chaney are “dating.”

9–11–19   Trace posts a photo of him and Chaney on IG, and says:  “It’s been a great eight months getting to know this beautiful girl.”

9–19–19   On the Bates Family Live Chat, Kelly says:  “Trace just started courting.”  (Trace wasn’t present on the Live Chat.)  She didn’t say when the courtship began, or give any other details.

TL;DR

For now, Duggar Data will use the following dates for Trace + Chaney...

First Meeting   January 10, 2019

Pre–Courting   February 17, 2019

Courting   June 15, 2019

All of these are estimates, especially the courtposal date.  We really don’t have much data to go on for these two!  I’m hoping more comes out on this season of Bringing Up Bates.