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#Benjamin Santer
paulbraterman · 11 months
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Roy Spencer's stratospheric levels of denial
Our knowledge of the stratosphere reaches new heights. So does Roy Spencer's denial
Frontispiece of article, Climate fearmongering reaches stratospheric heights, by Roy Spencer, also published by the Cornwall alliance. Fair Use. When a scientist who has won awards for his work in the field disagrees with his colleagues, we must ask how much attention we should give to his opinion. The image you’re looking at is copied from the website of Dr Roy Spencer, whose piece was also…
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ainews · 2 years
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According to a new study, fuel from a long-ago era is still present in the atmosphere today.
The study, published in the journal Science, found that about 3 percent of the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere today came from a time before the Industrial Revolution.
The study's authors say the finding helps to explain why the atmosphere has not been cooling as much as expected in recent years.
The study's lead author, Gabriela Segura, of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, said the findings show that "the industrial revolution was not as big of a deal as we thought it was."
The study's co-author, Ralph Keeling, also of Scripps, said the findings suggest that natural processes are still playing a role in climate change.
"This is not just an anthropogenic phenomenon," Keeling said. "It's a natural phenomenon that's been going on for a long time."
The study's authors say the finding could help to improve climate models.
The study's co-author, Benjamin Santer, of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, said the findings "suggest that we need to revisit some of our basic assumptions" about how the atmosphere works.
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scitechman · 7 years
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Study on Impact of Climate Change on Snowpack
Study on Impact of Climate Change on Snowpack
An international team of scientists, including one from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), has found that up to 20 percent loss in the annual maximum amount of water contained in the Western United States‘ mountain snowpack in the last three decades is due to human influence.
Peak runoff in streams and rivers of the Western U.S. is strongly influenced by melting of accumulated…
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rjzimmerman · 6 years
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Excerpt:
Summers are heating up faster than the other seasons as global temperatures rise, especially in parts of the Northern Hemisphere, and the changes carry the clear fingerprints of human-caused climate change, a new study shows.
The findings deliver another blow against two refrains commonly repeated by climate deniers: that the satellite record doesn't show that the planet is warming, and that it's impossible to know how much warming is from nature and how much is from human beings.
Both claims are wrong, say the authors of the study, published Thursday in the journal Science.
Opponents to climate action have pointed to satellites in their arguments against global warming, said lead author Benjamin Santer, a climate researcher at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. "But in fact, satellite temperature data show very strong signals of human effects on climate."
Santer and his co-authors looked at the satellite record going back to the late 1970s to trace how warming is impacting seasons differently. They found that while year-round temperatures are rising, the rate of that temperature increase is happening faster in the mid-latitudes during the summer than it is during the winter. That's even more pronounced in the Northern Hemisphere.
The scientists ran models to look at rates of warming and separate out the causes, taking into account the greenhouse gases that come from the burning of fossil fuels and then looking just at natural variability without mankind's influence. "We show that the human fingerprint is far larger than our best current estimates of natural changes," Santer said.
Santer and his team found that at the mid-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, from about 40° North (close to the Kansas-Nebraska border) to about 60° North (mid-Canada), there is a gap between how much temperatures are rising in summer compared to how much they are rising in winter. That gap grew by roughly a tenth of a degrees Celsius each decade over the 38-year satellite record as the summers warmed faster.
The reason for this, the study explains, is that much of the world's land is in the Northern Hemisphere, as opposed to the Southern Hemisphere, which has more ocean. Ocean temperatures don't fluctuate as much and are slower to reflect change.
The mid-latitudes are also where many of the world's crops are grown, and as the temperature rises and the soil dries out, that could have major implications for food sources.
Above 60° North latitude—going into the Arctic—the scientists saw the trend reverse. There, the winters are getting warmer faster, giving seasonal sea ice less time to regrow each year.
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Charney Report
New Post has been published on https://www.aneddoticamagazine.com/charney-report/
Charney Report
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What if all leaders and nations had proves climate cheanges because of human emissions of CO2?
We all know that climate is changing. The “game” between environmentalists and world leaders under the pressure of multinational companies regards the causes that have produced and that are accelerating these changes. In other words, global warming is a phenomenon the origins of which are anthropogenic, that is caused by man?
Nobody talks about that, but there is a scientific evidence that global warming is caused by an unnatural desire to produce (and sell) more and more: the proof of this relationship dates back to 40 years ago. A group of scientists of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States led by meteorologist Jule Gregory demonstrated that the average temperature of the planet would be increased, and why (and much more accurate of what is said during such historical events as the meetings of the Kyoto or the COP21, Paris): 40 years ago, at the end of July 1979, researchers published a report in which it was highlighted the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and climate change.
The results which were arrived were so devastating that researchers scurried to communicate tothe White House, even before that to the media.
Strangely, no one, neither the White House nor other branches of the government, said anything about the the study received. They simply forgotten it. It was a period of “hot” news: Russia had invaded Afghanistan; in Italy, only a few years before, the referendum on abortion had marked a moment in history and, just a year before, in 1978, was kidnapped Aldo Moro, and soon after, in 1980, it came to pass in the disaster of Ustica, who triggered controversy in the international is not just with France, the USA and Libya; in Spain, had just been launched to the Constitution. The whole of the international policy was focused on a series of events that had blinded the heads of state and had permitted, perhaps, to realize that they were in the act changes that would have changed the planet in a few decades. Even in the USA, the government preferred to look the alrta part: the rest had just been re-established diplomatic relations with China, was launched as the first revolutionary Shuttle and Jimmy Carter and Leonid Brezhnev had signed the agreements SALT II.
May be it was this the reason whay no one took the trouble to investigate the consequences of the thesis of a group of american researchers.
Later, in 2005, other scientists confirmed the accuracy of the forecasts reported in 1979: basing on three of the most large set of satellite data used by climate scientists over the past 40 years, results reached the ”gold standard” of certainty (the third had him in 2016). The forecasts reported in the study of the seventies were so precise that, thirty years later, in 2009, Raymond Pierrehumbert, professor of geosciences at the university of Chicago, was obliged to acknowledge that “nothing of all the knowledge achieved in recent decades has been able to contradict the conclusions of the report, Charney”.
(A sign that even then someone had tried to contradict that, which was not a theory but a thesis demonstrated, but without success).
This means that, already in 1979, scientists had demonstrated the impact of humanity on climate changes. But it also means another thing, far more relevant: that world leaders, who knew it, decided not to do anything. And they ketp doing (or better not douing) for forty years.
For all this decads research Charney ended up in oblivion. But the report had too much weight to remain hidden: the Charney report explained that “some changes in the composition of the atmosphere can change its ability to absorb the energy of the Sun”. If world leaders had devoted the attention they deserved to that research and if they had acted immediately, today the world would not find itself managing an emergency of epochal dimensions.
Why didn’t they do anything? Yet the document in the hands of world leaders was clear: “We have irrefutable proof that the atmosphere is changing and that man is contributing to this process. The concentrations of carbon dioxide are constantly increasing, which is linked to the combustion of fossil resources and the exploitation of the soil. Since CO2 plays a significant role in the thermal equilibrium of the atmosphere, it is reasonable to assume that its increase will have consequences on the climate ”. What consequences? Also in this respect the researchers, in 1979, had provided extremely precise data: Carl Wunsch, one of the authors of the Charney report, demonstrated the thesis of global warming of anthropic origin does not require complex calculations and models and predicted that a doubling of the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere would have led to an increase in the average global temperature of between 1.5 and 4.5 degrees Celsius, due to the different scenarios considered. Exactly what has occurred in recent years!
World leaders gathered in Paris come to mind at the end of the COP21 work. All smiling, between a dinner and a group photo, while presenting the “new” plan to contain the increase in global temperatures and save the world (a plan to be implemented who knows when, especially after Trump’s decision to pull back).
Instead, all of them already knew the causes and the extent of rising global temperatures very well. And not for a short time, for decades. “The main findings of the report have aged very well,” said Mark Zelinka, a climate scientist at LLNL, who also coauthored the document. “The story that scientists don’t know the cause of climate change is wrong,” Benjamin Santer, lead author of the study, “We know it” told Reuters.
As Pierrehumbert pointed out: “Political decision makers have not taken these forecasts into account and have not acted preventively”. Indeed, even today they pretend not to know with certainty the relationship of cause and effect between the increase of CO2 emissions, increase in global temperatures and climate change!
The point is that, after reading the report, and especially after seeing that the predictions of scientists have already become reality, their choices can no longer be hidden behind a sort of poor knowledge. Or of ignorance. There is no doubt that those who have governed in recent decades have not considered the common good or the preservation of the planet as primary: they have ruled with only the economic advantages of a few at heart. Now, forty years after the publication of the Charney Report, he can no longer deny it.
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jakez19 · 8 months
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suedtirolerfreiheit · 6 years
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Jung. Motiviert. Patriotisch! – Süd-Tiroler Freiheit stellt Jugendkandidaten vor
Auf einer Pressekonferenz wurden die Jugendkandidaten der Süd-Tiroler Freiheit für die Landtagswahl vorgestellt. Mit einem Team von neun Jungkandidaten weist die Bewegung die jüngste Kandidatenliste in Süd-Tirol auf. Die Jugendkandidaten haben gleichzeitig ein detailliertes Programm für die Jugend Süd-Tirols ausgearbeitet und vorgestellt.
(more…)
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realitista · 5 years
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So, there's still a chance?
No, We’re Sure
New analysis of 40 years’ worth of satellite data shows that it’s a near-certainty that humanity is actively causing global climate change.
Climate deniers often claim, in the face of overwhelming evidence, that the planet is heating up and natural disasters are becoming more intense and common just because that’s the way it is — incorrectly insisting that humanity’s love affair with fossil fuels has nothing to do with it. Now, scientists say the chances that that’s true are just one in a million.
Yep, Pretty Sure
According to the research by scientists at California’s Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, that’s because climate data has now reached a so-called “gold standard” of scientific evidence — there’s only a one in a million chance that ongoing climate change could have been caused by anything other than humanity, reports Reuters.
“The narrative out there that scientists don’t know the cause of climate change is wrong,” Benjamin Santer, the scientist who led the research, told Reuters. “We do.”
No Uncertainty
The scientific research process almost never eradicates uncertainty: researchers test their hypotheses to get a better understanding of the world, but there’s almost always some other factor out there that could have impacted their findings. In other words, a gold standard is not something that’s taken lightly.
The new analysis looked at the three largest satellite data sets used by climate scientists. It shows that two of those data sets reached the gold standard of certainty that humanity causes climate change back in 2005, and the third did in 2016.
That level of certainty, highly uncommon in scientific research, makes humanity’s impact on the planet very clear. And now we have to figure out what to do about it.
“Humanity cannot afford to ignore such clear signals,” reads the analysis.
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inhandnetworks-blog · 6 years
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Study Remote Machine Monitoring & Maintenance System   Strengthens Link Between Human Activities and Climate Change
www.inhandnetworks.com
Geographical patterns of observed and simulated trends (in degrees Celsius per decade) from 1979 to 2011. Abbreviations stand for the lower stratosphere (TLS), the mid- to upper LTE router  troposphere (TMT), a Vending Telemetry  nd the lower troposphere (TLT). The observations are measurements of microwave emissions made by microwave sounding units (MSUs) on polar-orbiting satellites. MSU-based temperature data came from three different observational groups: Remote Sensing Systems (RSS), the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH), and the Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) in Maryland. Courtesy Benjamin Santer, LLNL
Comparing 20 of the latest climate models against 33 years of satellite data has lead the scientists of a newly published study to believe, with a high degree of certainty, that human activities are linked to climate change.
New research shows some of the clearest evidence yet of a discernible human influence on atmospheric temperature.
Published online in the Nov. 29 early edition of the Proceedings of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, the study compared 20 of the latest climate models against 33 years of satellite data. When human factors were included in the models, they followed the pattern of temperature changes observed by satellite. When the same simulations were run without considering human influences, the results were quite different.
“We can only match the satellite record when we add in human influences on the atmosphere,” said Michael Wehner, a research scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) Computational Research Division and a coauthor of the article, which involved colleagues from 16 other organizations and was led by Benjamin Santer, an atmospheric scientist at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL).
Because the differences were so marked between models run with and without human influences, “we can conclude that these differences are unlikely to be due to natural causes  smart vending  with a high degree of certainty. In fact, in statistical terms, we are far more certain of this finding than we are of the existence of the Higgs-Boson,” said Wehner.
The new climate model simulations analyzed by the team will form the scientific backbone of the upcoming 5th assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is due out in 2014.
The goal of the study was to determine whether previous findings of a “discernible human influence” on tropospheric and stratospheric temperature were affected by current uncertainties in climate models and satellite data. (The troposphere is the lowest portion of earth’s atmosphere. The stratosphere sits just above the troposphere, between six and 30 miles above earth’s surface.)
To help eliminate the influence of naturally occurring climate variability, the team ran two different kinds of models: Models that included historical and projected increases in carbon dioxide and “aerosols,” such as smoke and dust, and one without. The second set of models acted as a sort of baseline that allowed researchers to filter out the effects of phenomena such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. This “noise” can obscure the “signal” scientists are searching for in satellite data and models. Using this information, researchers were able to distinguish the clearest signal yet linking human factors to satellite-observed temperature changes between 1979 and 2011.
Analyzing geographical patterns of atmospheric temperature change over the 33-year period of satellite observations, researchers found that the lower stratosphere cools markedly in both observations and computer models. This cooling is primarily a response to the human-caused depletion of stratospheric ozone, due mostly to the once-widespread use of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in spray can propellants and coolants, among other uses.
The observations and model simulations also show a common pattern of large-scale warming of the lower troposphere, with largest warming over the Arctic, and muted warming (or even cooling) over Antarctica. Tropospheric warming is mainly driven by human-caused increases in well-mixed greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide.
“It’s very unlikely that purely natural causes can explain these distinctive patterns of temperature change,” said LLNL’s Santer. “No known mode of natural climate variability can cause sustained, global-scale warming of the troposphere and cooling of the lower stratosphere.”
Wehner’s work was supported by the Regional and Global Climate Modeling Program and the Earth System Modeling Program of the Office of Biological and Environmental Research in the Department of Energy Office of Science.
Other contributors to the study, outside Berkeley Lab and LLNL, include researchers from Remote Sensing Systems of Santa Rosa; the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, Australia; the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis, Victoria, Canada; the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton; the University of Colorado, Boulder; the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge; the U.K. Met. Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, U.K.; the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Toulouse, France; North Carolina State University; the National Climatic Data Center, Asheville; the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder; the University of Adelaide, South Australia; the University of Reading, U.K.; and the Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Camp Springs.
Image: Benjamin Santer, LLNL
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malangtoday-blog · 6 years
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Tekan Angka Korupsi Malang Raya, MCW Eksplor Potensi Media Massa
MALANGTODAY.NET - Dalam rangka menyambut hari anti korupsi yang akan jatuh pada tanggal 9 Desember nanti, Malang Corruption Watch (MCW) menggelar kegiatan sarasehan dengan berbagai elemen. Hal yang menarik dari kegiatan ini yaitu sarasehan digelar bersama perwakilan media massa se-Malang Raya. "Dengan surat kabar kadang-kadang muncul kericuhan, tapi tanpa surat kabar akan selalu muncul penindasan," ujar perwakilan MCW Fahmi seraya mengutip seorang penulis sekaligus aktivis politik Eropa Benjamin Konstan. Baca Juga: Reuni Akbar 212, Rizieq Shihab Ajak Umat Bersatu Menangkan Pilpres 2019 Lebih lanjut Fahmi juga menyatakan bahwa pers atau media massa merupakan pilar keempat demokrasi setelah eksekutif, yudikatif dan legislatif. "Walaupun berada diluar sistem politik formal, keberadaan media massa memiliki posisi yang strategis dalam penyampaian informasi, pendidikan kepada publik sekaligus menjadi alat kontrol sosial," kata Fahmi dalam sarasehan yang dihadiri perwakilan media massa Malang Raya, Selasa (27/11/2018). "Kami menilai peran pers sangat strategis dan ampuh dalam memerangi perilaku korupsi," tambahnya. Perlu diketahui sarasehan yang diadakan oleh MCW menyasar kepada awak media, warga masyarakat, mahasiswa, seniman, akademisi, serta pusat-pusat kajian. Karena menurut mereka kasus korupsi tidak akan tuntas jika hanya mengandalkan para penegak hukum saja. Baca Juga: Santer Digosipkan Gabung PDIP, Ini Pesan Megawati ke Ahok "Kami ingin mengajak seluruh elemen masyarakat untuk berpartisipasi dalam memberantas korupsi yang ada di Malang raya ini," pungkasnya.
Reporter: Rosita Shahnaz Editor: Swara Mardika
Source : https://malangtoday.net/malang-raya/kota-malang/tekan-angka-korupsi-malang-raya-mcw-eksplor-potensi-media-massa/
MalangTODAY
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Charney Report
New Post has been published on https://www.aneddoticamagazine.com/charney-report/
Charney Report
Tumblr media
What if all leaders and nations had proves climate cheanges because of human emissions of CO2?
We all know that climate is changing. The “game” between environmentalists and world leaders under the pressure of multinational companies regards the causes that have produced and that are accelerating these changes. In other words, global warming is a phenomenon the origins of which are anthropogenic, that is caused by man?
Nobody talks about that, but there is a scientific evidence that global warming is caused by an unnatural desire to produce (and sell) more and more: the proof of this relationship dates back to 40 years ago. A group of scientists of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States led by meteorologist Jule Gregory demonstrated that the average temperature of the planet would be increased, and why (and much more accurate of what is said during such historical events as the meetings of the Kyoto or the COP21, Paris): 40 years ago, at the end of July 1979, researchers published a report in which it was highlighted the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and climate change.
The results which were arrived were so devastating that researchers scurried to communicate tothe White House, even before that to the media.
Strangely, no one, neither the White House nor other branches of the government, said anything about the the study received. They simply forgotten it. It was a period of “hot” news: Russia had invaded Afghanistan; in Italy, only a few years before, the referendum on abortion had marked a moment in history and, just a year before, in 1978, was kidnapped Aldo Moro, and soon after, in 1980, it came to pass in the disaster of Ustica, who triggered controversy in the international is not just with France, the USA and Libya; in Spain, had just been launched to the Constitution. The whole of the international policy was focused on a series of events that had blinded the heads of state and had permitted, perhaps, to realize that they were in the act changes that would have changed the planet in a few decades. Even in the USA, the government preferred to look the alrta part: the rest had just been re-established diplomatic relations with China, was launched as the first revolutionary Shuttle and Jimmy Carter and Leonid Brezhnev had signed the agreements SALT II.
May be it was this the reason whay no one took the trouble to investigate the consequences of the thesis of a group of american researchers.
Later, in 2005, other scientists confirmed the accuracy of the forecasts reported in 1979: basing on three of the most large set of satellite data used by climate scientists over the past 40 years, results reached the ”gold standard” of certainty (the third had him in 2016). The forecasts reported in the study of the seventies were so precise that, thirty years later, in 2009, Raymond Pierrehumbert, professor of geosciences at the university of Chicago, was obliged to acknowledge that “nothing of all the knowledge achieved in recent decades has been able to contradict the conclusions of the report, Charney”.
(A sign that even then someone had tried to contradict that, which was not a theory but a thesis demonstrated, but without success).
This means that, already in 1979, scientists had demonstrated the impact of humanity on climate changes. But it also means another thing, far more relevant: that world leaders, who knew it, decided not to do anything. And they ketp doing (or better not douing) for forty years.
For all this decads research Charney ended up in oblivion. But the report had too much weight to remain hidden: the Charney report explained that “some changes in the composition of the atmosphere can change its ability to absorb the energy of the Sun”. If world leaders had devoted the attention they deserved to that research and if they had acted immediately, today the world would not find itself managing an emergency of epochal dimensions.
Why didn’t they do anything? Yet the document in the hands of world leaders was clear: “We have irrefutable proof that the atmosphere is changing and that man is contributing to this process. The concentrations of carbon dioxide are constantly increasing, which is linked to the combustion of fossil resources and the exploitation of the soil. Since CO2 plays a significant role in the thermal equilibrium of the atmosphere, it is reasonable to assume that its increase will have consequences on the climate ”. What consequences? Also in this respect the researchers, in 1979, had provided extremely precise data: Carl Wunsch, one of the authors of the Charney report, demonstrated the thesis of global warming of anthropic origin does not require complex calculations and models and predicted that a doubling of the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere would have led to an increase in the average global temperature of between 1.5 and 4.5 degrees Celsius, due to the different scenarios considered. Exactly what has occurred in recent years!
World leaders gathered in Paris come to mind at the end of the COP21 work. All smiling, between a dinner and a group photo, while presenting the “new” plan to contain the increase in global temperatures and save the world (a plan to be implemented who knows when, especially after Trump’s decision to pull back).
Instead, all of them already knew the causes and the extent of rising global temperatures very well. And not for a short time, for decades. “The main findings of the report have aged very well,” said Mark Zelinka, a climate scientist at LLNL, who also coauthored the document. “The story that scientists don’t know the cause of climate change is wrong,” Benjamin Santer, lead author of the study, “We know it” told Reuters.
As Pierrehumbert pointed out: “Political decision makers have not taken these forecasts into account and have not acted preventively”. Indeed, even today they pretend not to know with certainty the relationship of cause and effect between the increase of CO2 emissions, increase in global temperatures and climate change!
The point is that, after reading the report, and especially after seeing that the predictions of scientists have already become reality, their choices can no longer be hidden behind a sort of poor knowledge. Or of ignorance. There is no doubt that those who have governed in recent decades have not considered the common good or the preservation of the planet as primary: they have ruled with only the economic advantages of a few at heart. Now, forty years after the publication of the Charney Report, he can no longer deny it.
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cendananews · 7 years
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Mendy Cedera, Pep Guardiola Bidik Ryan Bertrand
Mendy Cedera, Pep Guardiola Bidik Ryan Bertrand
MANCHESTER — Pep Guardiola dalam dilema. Salah satu pemain andalannya Benjamin Mendy harus absen hingga April tahun depan akibat cedera lutut. Guardiola harus mendatangkan pemain baru untuk memperkuat pertahanan Manchester City.
Salah satu bidikan mantan arsitek Barcelona dan Bayern Muenchen adalah Ryan Bertrand. Kabar yang berkembang santer menyebutkan jika Pep bakal memboyong bintang…
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environmentguru · 7 years
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Taxpayer-Funded Scientist Complains Trump Doesn’t Take Policy Advice From Him
Ben Santer Climate scientist Benjamin Santer wrote a lengthy op-ed in The Washington Post Wednesday, complaining the Trump administration’s “trickle-down ignorance” on man-made global warming was clouding the U.S. in darkness. Interestingly enough, S https://www.environmentguru.com/pages/elements/element.aspx?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=tumblr&id=5143524
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suedtirolerfreiheit · 6 years
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Top Climate Alarmist: Computer Models Wrong, Skeptics Right on “Pause”
Top Climate Alarmist: Computer Models Wrong, Skeptics Right on “Pause”
Count on the Fake News media to ignore a huge admission by a Climategate scientist that there has been no measurable global warming over the past 20 years — something he has previously vociferously denied. The admission by Dr. Benjamin Santer, a top global-warming alarmist, should have made headlines — but, of course it didn’t.
Santer was a leading “pause denier,” a climate alarmist who refused…
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inhandnetworks-blog · 6 years
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Study Strengthens Link Between Human Activities and C dtu  limate Change
www.inhandnetworks.com
Geographical patterns of observed and simulated trends (in degrees Celsius per decade) from 1979 to 2011. Abbreviations stand for the lower stratosphere (TLS), the mid- to upper troposphere (TMT), and the lower troposphere (TLT). The observations are measurements of microwave emissions made by microwave sounding units (MSUs) on polar-orbiting satellites. MSU-based temperature data came from three different observational groups: Remote Sensing Systems (RSS), the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH), and the Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) in Maryland. Courtesy Benjamin Santer, LLNL
Comparing 20 of the latest climate models against 33 years of satellite data has lead the scientists of a newly published study to believe, with a high degree of certainty, that human activities are linked to climate change.
New research shows some of the clearest evidence yet of a discernible human influence on atmospheric temperature.
Published online in the Nov. 29 early edition of the Proceedi industrial IoT router  ngs of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, the study compared 20 of the latest climate models against 33 years of satellite data. When human factors were included in the models, they followed the pattern of temperature changes observed by satellite. When the same simulations were run without considering human influences, the results were quite different.
“We can only match the satellite record when we add in human influences on the atmosphere,” said Michael Wehner, a research scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) Computational R 3g router esearch Division and a coauthor of the article, which involved colleagues from 16 other organizations and was led by Benjamin Santer, an atmospheric scientist at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL).
Because the differences were so marked between models run with and without human influences, “we can conclude that these differences are unlikely to be due to natural causes with a high degree of certainty. In fact, in statistical terms, we are far more certain of this finding than we are of the existence of the Higgs-Boson,” said Wehner.
The new climate model simulations analyzed by the team will form the scientific backbone of the upcoming 5th assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is due out in 2014.
The goal of the study was to determine whether previous findings of a “discernible human influence” on tropospheric and stratospheric temperature were affected by current uncertainties in climate models and satellite data. (The troposphere is the lowest portion of earth’s atmosphere. The stratosphere sits just above the troposphere, between six and 30 miles above earth’s surface.)
To help eliminate the influence of naturally occurring climate variability, the team ran two different kinds of models: Models that included historical and projected increases in carbon dioxide and “aerosols,” such as smoke and dust, and one without. The second set of models acted as a sort of baseline that allowed researchers to filter out the effects of phenomena such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. This “noise” can obscure the “signal” scientists are searching for in satellite data and models. Using this information, researchers were able to distinguish the clearest signal yet linking human factors to satellite-observed temperature changes between 1979 and 2011.
Analyzing geographical patterns of atmospheric temperature change over the 33-year period of satellite observations, researchers found that the lower stratosphere cools markedly in both observations and computer models. This cooling is primarily a response to the human-caused depletion of stratospheric ozone, due mostly to the once-widespread use of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in spray can propellants and coolants, among other uses.
The observations and model simulations also show a common pattern of large-scale warming of the lower troposphere, with largest warming over the Arctic, and muted warming (or even cooling) over Antarctica. Tropospheric warming is mainly driven by human-caused increases in well-mixed greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide.
“It’s very unlikely that purely natural causes can explain these distinctive patterns of temperature change,” said LLNL’s Santer. “No known mode of natural climate variability can cause sustained, global-scale warming of the troposphere and cooling of the lower stratosphere.”
Wehner’s work was supported by the Regional and Global Climate Modeling Program and the Earth System Modeling Program of the Office of Biological and Environmental Research in the Department of Energy Office of Science.
Other contributors to the study, outside Berkeley Lab and LLNL, include researchers from Remote Sensing Systems of Santa Rosa; the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, Australia; the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis, Victoria, Canada; the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Ad Remote Diagnostics  ministration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton; the University of Colorado, Boulder; the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge; the U.K. Met. Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, U.K.; the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Toulouse, France; North Carolina State University; the National Climatic Data Center, Asheville; the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder; the University of Adelaide, South Australia; the University of Reading, U.K.; and the Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Camp Springs.
Image: Benjamin Santer, LLNL
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