#Thats what makes these shows so special on such a broad scale

[ronithesnail]

When i say art is less about the quality of the thing itself and more about the impact on its audience (a very cliche statement yes i know), i mean like an iconic tv show is less about the quality of the actual show and more about how feral it makes the fanbase

[spearxwind]

OOF... i dont even have a theme for the major extinction characters sjlklfdhk. i dont.. i dont have most minor characters planned out even 

I WILL GIVE YOU HOWEVER, a song that’s been inspiring me for certain worldbuilding things (though i cant say much bc idk if itll end up showing in the story at all but you can have it!) 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XciV8HuNQLw  [it’s realm breaker, by mechina]

Oh man, im influenced by a bunch of art and comics but i couldnt pin down specific inspirations for those haha

as for the more broad sense, i also have a bunch of things! significantly, physics and space. it might not look like it but i think a lot about the logistics of things and whatever rules would exist in my universes etc. it does suck sometimes bc it prevents me from doing things just for the hell of it, but i love applying knowledge to things. and space has always been something really close to me, my dad’s an astrophysicist so ive been exposed to all sorts of cool knowledge about it since i was a wee bab 

i also really really love metaphors and symbolism, but rather than take inspiration from things i just use my own personal symbolism x) i put a lot of myself in what i do. which.. i guess could be said for many artists too so its not too special haha

and also as with many other artists, i AM fueled by spite significantly. specifically 1. for the people who once thought or who still think id never be good to do art, or that id never get better at what i do. 2. for people who draw wings wrong (especially professional people? what’s wrong with you. im begging you to look at a bird) 3. for people and companies that make terrible designs with terrible decisions (they fuel me to do better than them) 4. for people who believe that the only way to be good at art and design is to make overly complex and visually charged, detailed designs with many colors/hues (all my ocs are fairly simple and have the most limited colors kffhk) 

im sure there’s a lot more but ive spent a lot of time writing this out already and i cant really think of anything else so i hope this is a good enough answer!! 

god i do NOT have enough knowledge for this but what the fuck was up with the volturi lol. like fuckin, vampire goth club over there did nothing to change over hundreds of years, all of them still stuck in their medieval ways. i remember a plot point that was touched upon was that they had a specific person lure in a bunch of lost tourists through the sewer entrance so that the volturi could drink them and like ?? bro. how is this not investigated at any point, ever. like a shit ton of tourists just disappear ??? all the time?? and no one gives a fuck?? no investigation?? what do they do with the bodies?????

also, they were willing to blast the carlisle family into fucking orbit over Turning A Child (tm) into a vampire, but they had absolutely no qualms about vampire wars/soldiers where a lot of people were irresponsibly turned into neophytes for their strength (like jasper) or people who turned others just for the fuck of it or bc theyd have sickass powers (like benjamin. that was the sole reason for benjamin being turned. bc the dude could feel that benj would have cool powers and he absolutely did... he was a fucking avatar. controller of the elements. and he did absolutely jack shit in the books. im still so mad) 

but yeah anyway the volturi are big hypocrites. got nothing to say about their lifestyle and aesthetic tho bc italians just be like that

his horns and the spikes on his forearms and tail are rly solid and rly pointy so theyre about as dangerous as a solid, pointy big thing can be

the spikes on his neck and back are a lot softer though. theyre flat scales and are probably bendy, but still sturdy. they don’t have edges or anything so you wont be sliced up if you touch them but touching them is probably not too comfortable

alex would probably be a crocodile tbh! it’s one of the things i based his dragon form off of for the latest iteration, and i just think it fits him a lot (also its funny that crocodiles are water creatures but alex has a Big Dislike of water)

also i literally cannot see adri as anything other than a snake sklhfsdk. its what he is!! this is like asking someone’s favorite color but not letting them choose their actual favorite. do you want me to lie? do you want me to say something not true??

Honestly i always loved deer but refused to acknowledge it, especially to myself, and much less thought about having one as a sona bc “prey animals are lame” was rly prevalent in my circles for the longest time. everyone was a dragon or a wolf etc bc they wanted to be cool and so did i but i never vibed with it it took me a rly long time to just accept that i rly liked deer haha and i think what made me decide on it in the end was ‘well i can make a deer more monstery if i wanted to, i have that power’ and so i did  then later i tied the whole ‘wrong deer’ aesthetic to my own personal symbolism of always being picked on by many until i got sick of it and learned to stand up for myself. my sona is something that’s not for people to prey on anymore, and so am i c:

honestly? ive never thought about it. im not too knowledgeable about dnd still so i dont think id be able to do them justice

ive thought about making dnd encounters based off of my ocs thought (like, how their powers would work turn/mechanic wise) but if i ever did i dont think id use them or talk about them :’) 

jkdg gosh thats so sweet thank you sm!! im so happy you enjoy my stuff :’DDDD 

WELL, in no particular order: 

1. several glass bottles 2. bei’s pet golem sierra (they got her back though) 3. a knife or two probably 4. an air conditioning remote 5. do sewer rats count? sewer rats. besides all the other rats i mean 6. homeless man who tried to rob his store at gunpoint 7. the gun  8. drank a bottle of cyanide once 9. a motorcycle (as collateral damage) 10. tbh he will eat any creature he finds while walking around that’s small enough to fit in his mouth and no one can rly stop him

DISGOSTING!!! not even bc of the flavor i rly dont care abt that but bc like... warm pineapple... that’s the real crime 

oh my gosh that’d be an honor tbh!! I’m not sure if i’d be a big help since i might be tied with school stuff at the time, but id definitely love to try!! ty!! 

[sage-nebula]

alan vs liam...? my money's on alan. He's got that purpose and drive in his life now-hell, even with everything weighing down on him in canon he still had it in him to push forward even while he was letting go and finally enjoying his battles with satoshi and thats what let him win. b/c he has that drive to protect and those precious people in his heart. does liam even have that other than shou? does he ever get the chance to learn that vital lesson? it seems like an uphill battle for him.

Hmm, well …

See, what I think you’re describing is Alan’s unflinching, unyielding determination. He is a Determinator. He does not quit. The one time we see him break, it’s extremely temporary, and under the most grievous of circumstances. I don’t think anyone can blame him for having that complete breakdown atop Prism Tower, and even then, it’s not like we see him say he’s going to stop fighting, or that he’s going to give up and go home. He shuts down for a time, yes (and again, who could blame him), but he’s still there, and Ash is able to snap him out of it. Ash is able to help him temporarily shelve his trauma long enough so that his natural Determinator instinct can kick in and he can keep fighting, because that is what he does. Regardless of the odds stacked against him, no matter how insurmountable they may seem, he goes out and fights because that’s just who he is. Even when Primal Legendaries were threatening the world—even when it was outright stated that the apocalypse was nigh—Alan, without hesitating, said that he was going to go to where they were fighting so that he could do something about it. Of course, he was doing this because he felt that it was Right, and doing what is Right is his primary motivation, but one still can’t deny the sheer determination he has, the fact that he just doesn’t give up unless you physically incapacitate him. He has to be buried under rubble or unconscious (nearly dead) before he stops fighting. Again, the only exception is when he has his emotional breakdown on Prism Tower, but even that was temporary, and is more than understandable. He’s not a machine, even he has limits—but even then, with some words of encouragement, he pushes past those limits anyway and stays determined, because that’s who he is.

That soul, I think, that inner strength—it all comes down to where you stand on nature vs. nurture, but personally I feel that human beings are a mixture of both. Our experiences certainly shape us in huge ways, but I think that there are some parts of us that are core, that we’re not entirely blank slates when we’re born, that there are some parts of us that simply are. (Hence why, for instance, some babies are fussier than others, even when newborn, before their experiences have a chance to shape them.) If that’s the case, if that’s true, then Liam has that same Determinator spirit that Alan does. They’d both be Determinators, they’d both set their sights on something and then go after it with everything they have. Liam shows his determination when he ignores what his family says and chooses to run away to go become a trainer regardless of what they want or think. Everything is set against him doing this—there are so many obstacles in his path—but he doesn’t let any of it stop him. His parents and grandparents disapproving doesn’t stop him, the fact that he has no pokémon to help him safely get to Lumiose City doesn’t stop him, the fact that he’s never traveled alone before doesn’t stop him, the fact that he doesn’t have a License doesn’t stop him, and so on and so forth. The challenges are great and many, but they aren’t enough to get him to back down. He keeps going, keeps fighting, because this is important to him, he feels he has to do it. So in that sense, he does have the same determination that Alan does, the same refusal to give up.

So that’s something they share, even if not for the same reasons, because you’re right: Liam doesn’t have the same number of precious people in his life that Alan does. Liam has Shou, and other pokémon he could potentially train, and at present, that’s about it. (Though he still could form a relationship with Sycamore, it would just be quite different.) I think that their moral compasses could still be about the same, at least on a broad scale. I think that, if faced with the end of the world, Liam—like Alan—would choose to fight because it’s the Right thing to do, and again, he does have the determination to go after it. But no, he doesn’t have specific people to protect, he lacks that as a motivation. So he doesn’t have that in his corner the way that Alan does.

But the reason why my money is still on Alan winning in a battle between them isn’t down to motivation (particularly if it was just a fun battle), but rather instead comes down to the fact that I just feel like Alan would be the superior trainer, for a few reasons:

Alan’s knowledge, both in terms of general pokémon care and battling techniques, far suprasses Liam’s. Liam’s tutoring regimens were extremely strict; he’s very smart and knows a great many things, to be sure. But most of his subjects didn’t cover pokémon, and those that did didn’t exactly touch upon pokémon care or battling techniques. By the time he leaves on his journey, he’s had any love of academia or studying completely crushed out of him due to how strict his tutors / grandparents were (and his parents refusing to step in / not fostering a love of learning / saying he should pursue his lessons despite hating them didnt’ help), and so he doesn’t want to take the time to study and learn later on, either. So while he is very smart, he never actually studied anything that would benefit him when it comes to being a trainer, and so anything he learns, he learns on the go, on the field. This can be fine, but it also means that he’s going to start way behind Alan …… who has been studying pokémon (both in terms of general care and battling techniques) since he was five. Not only was Alan raised by Sycamore at his lab, but he also helped Sycamore out as an assistant, meaning that he learned all about the different pokémon they had there at the lab, as well as all kinds of different other species through various lessons on zoology and the like. Alan had his natural curiosity and intelligence nurtured, and Sycamore fostered a love for learning and academia in him, so that Alan often sought out various subjects and lessons on his own (or asked Sycamore to teach him various different things), which included so many different lessons about pokémon. On top of that, Sycamore’s father (Alan’s adoptive grandfather) decided from the get-go that Alan was a Champ-in-Making, and so he often got him various books and guides about training techniques and battling, which Sycamore sometimes sighed in exasperation at, but Alan loved reading. So even when he was just a little kid, undecided if he’d even train someday, he still read books about various strategies and different pokémon for fun. So when the time came that he applied for his License when he turned ten, although he did study in preparation for the exam, it was really unnecessary; he passed with a perfect score. Even as a trainer, he still studies in addition to practical training for fun, because that’s just how he is.So while Liam learns on the fly, and is still very smart and does do a good job, Alan knows far more about this than Liam does. He may have left on his journey two years later than Liam, but the two years he spent at the lab were not spent slacking, they were spent learning. I mean, this is a guy who uses the Agiligross strategy in canon. He knows what he’s doing; he’s not making it up as he goes along.

As absolutely godawful as being in Lysandre’s service was … it can’t be denied that it really taught Alan how to fight, and since there’s a high probability that Liam would never be pulled into Lysandre’s service like that, he simply wouldn’t have that experience.Like, again, being in Lysandre’s service was horrid, absolutely awful. Lysandre emotionally abused Alan for years. But Lysandre himself straight up says, “I have no use for weaklings.” While this is more emotional abuse, it also points to the training that Lysandre no doubt put Alan through after recruiting him. Alan knew to go to Lysandre to request further training (which was given to him in the form of the mega evolution gauntlet) in TSME 4; we can only assume, then, that he probably had similar training in the past, quite possibly after first being recruited. Like, I don’t think it was a gauntlet before—I think Lysandre set up that rather harsh gauntlet in order to punish what he perceived to be impatience from Alan, because he dislikes impatience—but I do think that when Lysandre first recruited Alan (by having his pyroar curbstomp Lizardon) he no doubt gave him some form of training to toughen both him and Lizardon up so that they would be more useful. And even setting aside training that Lysandre made available to them, they traveled for two years in his service, going god knows where to get Mega Stones, battling other trainers who utilized mega evolution along the way once Lizardon evolved into charizard. Alan not only no doubt underwent training as Lysandre’s agent, but he also learned how to fight out of necessity as someone working the field (learning on the job, as it were), potentially going to very dangerous places and getting into dangerous situations that he then had to get himself (and Lizardon) out of. And again, Liam just doesn’t have that, more than likely. He would have never had any training set up by Lysandre, and he wouldn’t have lived the experiences that Alan did that taught him and Lizardon how to fight. I’m not talking about fighting as in determination, but I’m talking about fighting as in combat strength and skill. Liam and Shou are strong, no doubt—again, they’re not stupid, they’re not weak—but Alan and Lizardon went through a special set of circumstances that, as godawful and harmful as those circumstances were to their mental health (and hell, even physically—both of them nearly died in TSME 3), still gave them strength and survival skills that they might not have had otherwise.  

So because of those two factors, my money would definitely be on Alan. Liam is good, no doubt, but I think that Alan would still be the superior trainer, and Lizardon would be the stronger charizard. No shade on Liam or Shou; I just don’t think they’re in the position (or timeline) to be able to keep up.

[snoddysessions]

Cards For Play Final

Cards For Play.

Jack Snodgrass.                             Student ID:14874354

This is an example of what my cards would look like. The top tag line shows what type of card it is. For example this is a character card. The middle piece under the picture that shows what it is is the name of the character or item (in this case Frodo). And the bottom level of text is a basic description that doesn’t relate to gameplay but just thing itself.

Project Title:

This project is titled cards for play. This project utilises a pack of cards of the students design to invoke play in users and players. My project is part about expressing the thoughts and fantasies of a person by triggering the brains creative processors. This is shown through the brains process of interpreting events that may be fictional or impossible to ever be carried out. When telling a story a humans brain does wondrous things, not only is the part that controls language utilised but any part of the brain that would be used to carry out the action or process you are describing will be triggered. So this is why when telling a story your brain will employ feelings that you may never be able to experience in a real life scenario.

Reflective Statement:

This project is titled cards for play. This project utilises a pack of cards of the students design to invoke play in users and players. I have completed this project by designing a game of cards that utilises aspects and elements from all genres of stories to let the users create their own fantasy stories. I discovered this was a fun way to get the creative waves of your brain rolling in a way that invokes play and is enjoyable for a large group of people. Through the experience and process of designing this game it helped me connect and reflect on the bigger picture and underlying them of what i was trying to do, whilst keeping the play element as the major focus. This is, as stated above, trying to get the parts of your brain used for creativity to be used at maximum levels. When telling stories the parts of your brain that would be used for the real life actions you are describing come into play and are used. This means that through telling stories you get to feel, no matter how small the feeling, things that you may never get to experience on a full scale or real level. For example if in your story you have a character jump off a cliff, part of your brain that would deal with the adrenaline and feeling of that might get a spark and you get a taste of what that could be like. Some things that i learnt throughout this process really surprised me. I usually find myself being very capable of writing when i sit down and really put my mind to it, but i found that as i played this game with my family that my brain went into overdrive as i tried to think of stuff on my feet and on the go. I think this is really cool because people are going to have to really think hard and fast to try and keep the story flowing. This project was shaped and first came into my mind as I am a lover of reading. As i feel reading is a dying art with the age of television only growing larger i think its important to still read stories and give your imagination a workout. This is where my idea grew from, as not only is reading a fundamental thing for a human, but the ability to use your imagination to come up with a sequence of events is just as important.

This projects goal and purpose was to create a game that was used to facilitate play. Play is described as people engaging in activity for enjoyment and recreation rather than a serious or practical purpose. This is why when designing and planning this project i tried to use things that bring me joy in my everyday life and try to find a way i can use it in a playful way. This is why i found it a no brainer to make a game that uses stories and elements from stories in a. creative and playful way. My project is a success in my eyes purely for the fact that it takes something that i feel is becoming a lost art and using it in a way that everyone can enjoy, even if they don't enjoy the activity and basis of my design plan.

What I've learned from this experience is that the power of your mind and imagination is something that people sometimes take for granted and should not be. Before designing this game it had been awhile since i had really had to stretch my imagination for any purpose. But in trialling this i found my mind working a lot harder then it has in recent weeks. I feel that this was a major part of this project as whilst the play aspect is the major function, a game that forces people to think and use parts of their brain that may go mainly unused in every day life is a success.

Whilst i am happy with where my project is at this point, like most others if not all things in the world, there is room for growth. I feel that this game and project could grown bigger and bigger, as with writing a novel, or a story, or a movie script there is a endless amount of material to be used and discovered. Whilst the brief says to make a standard deck of 52 cards my game would go well beyond that. Due to the amount of material available the amount of cards could go into the hundreds, and people will always think of new things and aspects to add for it.

My thoughts for this project are that the play aspect has a broader meaning. Play can be anything from a game to a playful thought. Thats why i feel this project is great because the ideas that come out will be able to be incorporated from a card game to many other aspects and features that could be used in every day life.

“Storytelling is the most powerful way to put ideas into the world.” – Robert McKee

Twitter friendly tagline:

“We cannot create a world we can’t imagine and stories are the engines of our imaginations.” – Josh Stearns

- My project has the title name improvisations. My game improvisations is used to expand and challenge the users mind and creative instincts to create a story using plot elements that they have no prior knowledge of what there going to be. This forces users and players to think on their feet and try to use knowledge of existing stories to drive themselves towards the ending. Players will be forced to reach for the corners of their imaginations to drive their stories and create a great fantasy world unlike our own. Users feelings and emotions will be effected an used throughout as they work hard to place themselves in a frame of mind where their stories fell there coming to life. This is a great game to enjoy with your entire family, or a group of friends anytime and anywhere.

RULES OF PLAY:

Initial Story telling card game rules:

One player at a time narrating the story, the player who begins as the narrator is chosen through a agreed upon routine by all players

The player who is the narrator must use the cards in his/her hand to reach the climax and ending that they have in their hand

Players turns will be over if they are deemed to be rambling

Players will pick another card if they end their turn or their turn is ended through other means

Players will each start with 8 cards not including their ending card

Cards will be randomly shuffled and handed out so that every player has a different blend of the types of cards they have

The takeover cards will be spread throughput the deck and can be played at any point

The switch cards can only be played when the type of card (Location, aspect, Character) corresponds to the card that has been played

If the word on any of your cards is mentioned you may play that card and take over narrating

The ending card can only be played once all other cards are on the table

The game is only over once the ending card has been played and only one person may win

No shortcuts

Type of Cards:

The types of cards i will be using will draw inspiration and design from the many different genres of film, tv and stories. There will be 5 main types of cards that the users will need to use to create their story and get to their ending.

- Character

Setting

Object

Action

Takeover/Switch

Character:

The character cards for my game will come from all aspects of every story there is. Films , television and Books (nursery rhymes, fantasy, novels)

Frodo

Homer Simpson

Little red riding hood

Etc

Setting:

These setting cards will have settings of specific and also generic places from all forms of stories. These specific settings will be things such as; the three little pigs house, gingerbread cottage, Springfield. Then the generic ones will be such things as; Castles, Plains, forests.

Object:

The object cards will cover objects from every type of story, both make believe and real. These will be things such as weapons, every day items, magical items, clothing etc.

Action:

Action cards will cover a broad spectrum of activities, scenarios and situations that occur in almost every story that exists. These will cover everything from running to fighting, conversing to arguing, loving and hating etc.

Takeover Pickup and Switch:

The takeover cards will function as the way for one player to take over narrating from another. The Takeover cards will be very limited and they will serve as a way to take over at any point in the game even if you are not the next player to go. These can be played at any time.

The switch card will be the second way to take over the narrating from another player. These cards will be scattered throughout the decks and will be normal cards that have a special symbol on them that allows the players to swap it in. For example if someone plays a setting card (forest) and another player has a setting card that has the symbol on it (swamp) they can take over the story only if they can play the card and fit the story around it. You may not play these for different types of cards, e.g. Setting to character etc

The pickup cards will function as the way that players can place down and make a chosen player in the game pick up the corresponding number of cards. These will be used so players can strategically place them to make someone pick up if they are drawing near to finishing the cards in their hand.

Gameplay , Setup and Rules: (Rules of Play)

Number of players: 3-10

Setup: Shuffle all the different element cards into one pile so that the draw selection is completely random. Include the takeover pickup and switch cards into this pile so that they are also at random and are not necessarily given or played by all participants.  Each player then gets a starting hand of 8 cards drawn at random from the deck. Each person then draws a ending card for themselves from the seperate deck of ending cards that have also been shuffled.

Choosing the first narrator: Have a deck of cards with different aspects of a person to chose who goes first. For example; person with the longest hair, person with the closest birthday, is the shortest or the tallest.

Turn options: The turns work with one person going at a time. The person narrating is in charge of continuing or starting the story. As they are telling the story they place the cards that correspond to what they are saying e.g “The hero walked into a swamp” as they use the word swamp they may place the card that has swamp on it into play. The story must make sense and can not just be random mumbling so they can play there cards all at once. The persons turn last as long as they can keep the story flowing at a normal pace, if they start rambling or get stuck there turn is over. Also if a player plays a takeover or switch card the person that played that takes over the narrating role. If the player chose to pass the turn over or they start rambling they must draw another card from the deck when their turn is over. If the players turn finishes with a takeover or swap card being played they do not have to draw a card.

Drawing a card: If the narrator chooses to end their turn or they are forced to end it due to rambling they must draw one card from the deck. If their turn is ended by a takeover or swap card being played they do not need to draw a card. The pickup cards in the decks will have 1,2, and 3 on it. These cards can be played at any point in the game but the person who is the narrator is the one who will need to pick up. Unlike most games you can not place another pick up card on top of one to make the number higher for another player. These are allowed to played even if the person narrating only has their ending card left

Playing the game: As you play the game your story elements are placed as you incorporate the aspects on your cards into the story.  You may only play the card if you use the element in the story and it makes sense, meaning your character cant be in the sky and then randomly in a field. As you play your cards you must use what you have to try and drive the story towards the ending that you have. This invokes play and draws the game out longer as you cant just ramble for 30 seconds and arrive at the end of your story.

Ending the game: The game is ended when one person has discarded and used all their cards and can play their ending card in a manner that makes sense. This means the player cant just randomly flip the story to match their ending and finish the game. The ending they conjure must make sense and be relevant to the way the story was unfolding e.g. “The hero drew his last breath and died valiantly in the battle” couldn't result in the Ending: And the hero conquered all and became the most powerful person in the kingdom. So this invokes the play strategy of using your cards and your turns wisely to try push the other players to continue towards your ending without knowing.

example of gameplay:

Players: James, Josh, Lucy,

James: Forest, Bilbo, Sword,

Josh: Swamp, Little red Riding hood, Switch (action)

Lucy: Plain, Big bad wolf, Running, Takeover

As done by who has the next birthday James goes first.

James: “ A long time ago in a kingdom far far away there lived a young hobbit named Bilbo (places bilbo card down on the table), Bilbo was akin young hobbit who loved minding his own business. One day when Bilbo was out walking in the enchanted Forest (places forest card down) he came across a strange site. End turn

James then picks up another card as he willing ended his own turn. Now josh is the narrator and he picks up the story right were James left off.

Josh: “it was a Swamp (places swamp card down) right in the middle of the forest. Bilbo suddenly grew very worried as he saw a red coat covered in dry blood. He realised this was the coat of Little  red riding hood (places the character card down) he was just about to get out of there when …

Lucy places her takeover card on to the table. This means that Lucy has interrupted josh and ended his turn as the narrator. since she ended his turn he does not have to pick another card up.

Lucy: “when the Big bad wolf (places character card down) grabs him from behind. Bilbo screams and tries to fight his way out. He mages to break the wolfs grasp and takes off Running (places running card down) ….

Josh now can play his switch card. As Lucy has played an action card down and he possesses a switch card that corresponds to the action cards he may place it and take back the narrating. Like before since he ended her turn she does not have to draw a new card

[vsplusonline]

Canada is flattening the coronavirus curve. That’s ‘good news,’ expert explains

New Post has been published on https://apzweb.com/canada-is-flattening-the-coronavirus-curve-thats-good-news-expert-explains/

Canada is flattening the coronavirus curve. That’s ‘good news,’ expert explains

Canadians have closed schools and shut down large parts of the economy to deal with the threat of the novel coronavirus.

Encouragingly, public health experts say that a graph of positive tests shows that the sacrifice is working.

“This is a good-news graph,” says Steven Hoffman of York University.

“The good news is that it’s not a straight line and that it’s actually curving downwards, which is exactly what we would want to see. These lines don’t show that the outbreak is ending. The number of cases might be going up. It’s just not going up as fast as we would have expected in the absence of intervention.”

The University of Toronto’s Ashleigh Tuite agrees.

“Overall, it’s a positive graph,” she says. “All the provinces are bending — you want them to be as flat as possible. They are all headed in the right direction, which is a positive sign.”

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The graph above will continue to be updated as new data becomes available.

Epidemiologists use graphs like this in part to see how long it takes infections to double — the longer the period, the better.

“That’s just a convenient way to think about it: there’s nothing special about doubling,” Hoffman says.

“You could also say how many days it it is before it gets 10 times bigger. It’s a helpful measure of the pace of what we’re trying to slow down. At this point, our focus is not on stopping the spread of an outbreak but slowing down how fast it spreads.”

0:46 Coronavirus outbreak: Ontario health official says province has ‘bent the curve’ but more work must be done

Coronavirus outbreak: Ontario health official says province has ‘bent the curve’ but more work must be done

The graph below is identical to the graph above, except for the addition of reference lines. These lines allow you to compare provincial trends against common doubling rates.

Doubling every two days, the dotted line on the left-hand side of the graph, would be a “very bad sign,” Hoffman says.

“The average we’re seeing in the world is four and a half to five days per doubling. If we could get it down to a doubling every week or so, that would be better than the rest of the world and totally change the severity of the outbreak in a very good way.”

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Slowing the outbreak is crucial because it gives the medical system time to cope. If the number of cases becomes unmanageable at a given time, doctors are forced to make harsh choices.

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“The scary thing becomes when the curve goes above the system capacity because that’s when doctors have to start making resource allocation decisions, which are probably among the very worst decisions that anyone could ever have to make,” Hoffman says.

READ MORE: One will live, one will die — How Canada is preparing for tough coronavirus choices

Urgently, we need to measure the coronavirus as a problem, but every way we have to measure it has to be seen with an understanding of its flaws.

Daily totals of cases (used in the charts above) seem like the most obvious and up-to-date number to look at. As a way of measuring the scale of the problem, though, these are distorted by the uneven availability of tests and the fact that some provinces test much more than others.

Deaths and hospitalizations are in some ways better but can reflect infections that happened three or four weeks ago.

The graph below shows the growth trend of COVID-19 deaths for each province with more than 30 deaths due to the illness.

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The numbers are crucial because we have few other tools to answer life-and-death questions, among them: is the huge dislocation caused by largely shutting down society helping to slow the virus, and if so, to what extent? If we were to reopen the economy, how would we know if that was the right decision?

A sharp rise in positive cases could show that the problem is getting worse — or that our knowledge about it is getting better.

“Normally, when you test more, you’re going to find more cases,” says the University of Toronto’s Colin Furness.

“It would be even better if we tested more and didn’t. All you’re doing is saying: ‘There’s an iceberg out there.’ Some portion of the iceberg is visible, and we are measuring that. That doesn’t say anything about the iceberg — it simply quantifies what you can already see.”

1:00 Coronavirus outbreak: Ontario hits first COVID-19 testing target, says premier

Coronavirus outbreak: Ontario hits first COVID-19 testing target, says premier

If we had the resources, Tuite says, we would ideally test people in a broad cross-section of society in a system somewhat like jury duty.

Quebec has suffered more than the rest of Canada because of “bad luck,” Furness says.

“They got some super-spreading, clearly. They got a big dose of virus-laden people. Sometimes, you only need a couple of people with lots of contact,” he says.

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“Their March break was a week early. The point at which, Canada-wide, we started closing schools and so forth, was a week too late for Quebec. If they’d just done it a week earlier, and if Ontario had done its stuff a week earlier — days matter.”

Quebec also tested more extensively, Tuite explains.

“If you look at the first five days since their 100th confirmed case, they have this very, very rapid growth in cases, and what that reflects is the fact that early on, they had a really large increase in testing that they were doing in their population. That gets to the messiness of the data,” she says.

READ MORE: Blaine Higgs suggests N.B. could be first province to reopen as no coronavirus cases reported Thursday

The Maritimes, on the other hand, have had a gentler time of it, at least so far.

“When you look at the Atlantic provinces — New Brunswick, P.E.I. — they didn’t have bad luck, and part of that is that they don’t have big international airports, so there’s less opportunity to have bad luck, and they started closing stuff down when Ontario started closing stuff down,” Furness says. “Lo and behold, they’re kind of done. The spread never really happened.”

At what point will the data tell us that can we start to lift restrictions? All the experts Global News talked to said there wasn’t a clear standard.

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“The reality is that it’s going to be trial and error, and I don’t think that putting a timeline on it is helpful,” Tuite says.

“If you look at how rapidly the situation has changed — every week feels like a month, or longer, in terms of how things change. Our understanding changes of where we are in the epidemic curve.”

The charts above are logarithmic charts.

In a traditional chart, like the one below, the vertical axis is divided evenly: 10, 20, 30. In a logarithmic chart, the vertical axis accelerates by a factor of 10: 10, 100, 1,000 and so forth. Logarithmic charts show change better, but you have to bear the distortion in mind.

You can see charts like this for dozens of countries here.

Here is what a more traditional chart of known infections looks like:

Click here to view data »

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© 2020 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.

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Three ebook formatting tips, part IV

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