#US House

[redistrictgirl]

As of August 11th, 2024, the race to control the US House of Representatives is a dead heat.

This is the most surprising output from my model, I think. After all the teeth-gnashing of 2022, an environment three points to the left still produces a nail-biter in the US House of Representatives! This time, though, Democrats are favored slightly, with an edge in 219 of 435 seats. I'm not going to go over every single interesting seat, because there's over 100 that could wind up competitive this year, so let's just go over the highlights.

The Southwest is going to be very competitive this year, extending all the way to California! Democrats will need to flip seats here to get to the magic 218 number, especially in California, where they dramatically underperformed in 2022. Conversely, Republicans will be eyeing Nevada - despite its gerrymander, three seats here are theoretically within reach, so a strong performance in the state at the top of the ticket could be a boon.

In the Midwest, Democrats will be playing defense, with vulnerable seats in Michigan, Ohio, and Minnesota already. A red wave is the biggest hope for the GOP, as that would put seats in Illinois, Kansas, and Indiana in play. On the other hand, if the environment gets bluer, Democrats could flip seats in Iowa and Michigan as well as Nebraska.

The one region to watch in the House might actually be the Northeast! Two districts in Allentown and Scranton are probably the easiest pickup opportunities for the GOP this cycle given Democratic coattails in 2022 that are unlikely to repeat, and Dems will be trying to hold a seat in Suburban Pittsburgh and flip a seat in Central New Jersey - both are razor-close, and either could definitely swing the chamber. In New York, Democrats absolutely must gain seats, but a fresh gerrymander will help them achieve that.

Speaking of gerrymanders, North Carolina's redrawn map will decimate the Democratic Party there, halving their safe representation. The Hampton Roads region and Northeast NC are critical to overcome that setback, as they have a close GOP-held seat and the expected median seat, respectively. Both incumbents here are strong, and they'll both need to be for their respective parties.

So while on paper, Democrats are the favorites, they'll be playing a lot of defense outside of New York and California. Control of the chamber could come down to many different factors, and if 2022 is anything to go by, even the most marginal seats can make a huge difference. 27 states are expected to have a competitive seat, so people across the country will play a role in deciding what the next government looks like.

[girlactionfigure]

[alwaysbewoke]

[boysinperil]

source

[elimgarakdemocrat]

The housing crisis has gotten really out of hand, now even the United States has no house 😨😨😨

[whilomm]

everyone lets place bets on the number of votes its gonna take. mines 23 (22 failed votes with the 23rd being successful).

lowballing it w the assumption that they will get too tired to let it go into the fuckin months long situation like the Last Time This Happened, BUT i could be Very Wrong :)

[gwydionmisha]

Poland warns US House speaker: you're to blame if Russia advances in Ukraine

[mega-ringsandthings-world]

Gaetz almost got his ass beat on the house floor LMAOOOOOOOOOO

[figuring-it-all-out]

He’s not going to, but imagine the pure chaos if - instead of voting for himself - Kevin McCarthy voted for the Democratic speaker. I’d be like that scene in Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End when Jack voted for Elizabeth instead of himself.

[redistrictgirl]

As of September 8th, 2024, Democrats are slightly favored (60% chance) in the race for control of the House of Representatives.

Downballot Democrats are finally starting to get tailwinds from the Harris campaign, and it shows as several close districts have shifted left and Republicans have lost the advantage in two seats based in Des Moines and the northern Phoenix suburbs. Unfortunately, polling is still super limited, so we don't have much to discuss, but I have a surprise for you all today - an experimental model designed to ease in small sample sizes more smoothly. It's not all that different, but it shows some surprising seats (in places like Nevada, the Tampa Bay, and Western Maryland) being more competitive than expected.

[uboat53]

You know, I write quite a bit about politics so it'd be reasonable for people to ask if I understand any of it. Given that I come from a science background my standard for understanding something is whether you can make accurate predictions about it.

Given that, I thought I'd write up some of my predictions for the New Year so that you can check and see if I know what I'm talking about. Here's what I've got:

1) Conservatives across the country will try to limit the ability of voters to directly express their preferences through the ballot box after losing badly on every abortion referendum in 2022.

2) Covid-19 will continue to kill about 300-400 people per day (~130,000 per year) making it the sixth or seventh leading cause of death in the United States.

3) mRNA vaccines for diseases like Influenza and RSV will continue to be developed, though I don't expect any to be approved within the next year.

4) I don't expect many states to change whether abortion is legal or not, instead the primary debate in 2023 is whether and how those states that have banned abortion will pay for the likely increase of births to low income women and families.

5) The Russian-Ukrainian war will continue with Ukraine making slow and grinding progress. By mid-summer they will have likely addressed the threat of Russian missiles hitting civilian infrastructure and Russia will likely turn to another form of brutality.

6) The Republican House will accomplish very little in substantive terms other than investigating the Biden Administration because they will prove fundamentally incapable of passing bills that Senate Democrats will be willing to accept.

7) The pace of judicial and executive branch appointments will increase because the Senate will have little else to do with the House in Republican hands.

[enderexplorer1212]

McCarthy L

L L L

I cannot deny my absolute glee at McCarthy losing by ONE fucking vote. It is absolutely hysterical and I cannot believe how amazing this is, oh my god.

[politijohn]

Source

[elimgarakdemocrat]

[fernsnailz]

i think we all need to complain about LED headlights more. please can we all complain about them more. night driving is nearly impossible for me to do now without having to white knuckle my way through a thousand evil suns. every time i see those headlights in my mirrors i take 2d6 radiant damage. i want to destroy every single LED headlight under my feet like they’re goombas