#and even nastier to colin as a character!!!!!

[dollypopup]

listen. . .words TRULY cannot explain how vindicated i am feeling in the fandom after all these interviews and snippets

do you even KNOW how much hate I got for writing Come Over Here and Profound for Me? where Penelope was guilt spiraling over all she did as LW? and people accused me of being a 'psychopath' and needing therapy (as if being in therapy is a. . .bad thing?) and being oh so unfair to Penelope because she was beating herself up a lot and her friends were hurt and betrayed?

and then we got the clip of her talking down to herself, about how embarrassing she is and how no one wants her and 'of course you wouldn't want to court me' and how sad he was about how lowly she sees herself.

how absolutely baffled I was over the narrative that every new male character would be a suitor for her? how little sense it made and how Penelope was for us unseen girlies and her being a diamond would be weird and ooc and unfulfilling?

and then it was revealed that Dankworth is Prudence's husband, and that Anderson is a hit with the older ladies, hinting he's there for Violet (as a continuation of her Queen Charlotte storyline) and that Debling is in a grand total of two episodes and that even Adjoa Andoh said the season was for the wallflowers.

how confused i was over monolithic 'Penelope is a girlboss and never did anything wrong!' narratives that happened over and over in our fandom and that Colin would grovel and beg and cry to be in Penelope's good graces again over one comment?

and then the clip came out and the person she was actually dragging was herself and the worst thing she called him was 'cruel' and just about one day later she's staring into his eyes and telling him how beautiful they are and how they shine when he's kind

how peeps insisted he'd be just fine when the truth comes out that Penelope is Lady Whistledown and that he'd find her clever or already knows or wouldn't be upset at all?

LINK

Interviewer: 'How do you think Colin would react if he found out she's LW?' LN: 'He would react. . .worst out of everyone in the ton' NC: 'She slagged off a LOT of people! I'm like 'Girl, you should be worried!' LN: 'He's also a sensitive boy! We'll see, I'm sure'

i'm not gonna name names. . .but some of y'all owe a LOT of people in this fandom a LOT of apologies

[dwarvenbash]

Dwarf Longbeards!

Definitely one of my top 3 favorite Dwarf units in Warhammer. I tried my hardest to match the feel of the excellent 6th edition designs by the legendary sculptor Colin Dixon as pictured in the bottom-most picture (the standard bearer in the center-left has been promoted to a Runelord), but I have quite a few quibbles with the newer plastic kit.

Even so, while my take on these old fogeys could maybe do with a couple additions to fill some gaps, I'd like to think I preserved some of that grumpy character to help them fit in with the rest of the unit!

As promised though, more complaining under the cut...

Now before I dive too deep into a screed of negativity, I'll gush a bit about the aforementioned 6th edition sculpts.

Colin Dixon is responsible for some of the best Warhammer Dwarf designs in my opinion, and absolutely nails all the elements that make them stand out from their other more generic fantasy equivalents. They are loaded to the whiskers with small details, from the iconic angular "ancestor" detailing of simplified dwarven faces on their weapons and armor, to accessories from beer steins to smoking pipes to rings on their fingers. Each miniature tells a story, and for these Longbeards especially it's like they're carrying a long lineage of heirlooms and history with them into battle!

One of the greatest parts of Colin's sculpts however in my opinion are how he poses his dwarfs. An essential element that seperated old Warhammer Dwarf designs from others were how short their legs were. Most of the time, a Dwarf's boots were all you could see on a miniature, the rest obscured by long-hanging chainmail or beard hair. While this did a great job of helping them have a distinct look, it also meant it could be hard getting more dynamic and characterful poses out of them; not so for these Longbeards, however! Unlike their more follicle-challenged kin, these old Dwarfs are not shown charging into the fray, hopped up on adrenaline. This is not their first battle, and you're sure to hear them mutter something about how that "back in their day" the orcs were nastier, and the ale tasted better, to boot! So to reflect this, they are posed at ease, resting on their great weapons like walking sticks, unimpressed, just waiting for the enemy to come to them.

Now, much like in the Dwarfen kingdoms of Warhammer, the new-fangled miniature designing ways somewhat pale in comparison to the old masterworks, which brings us to the new Longbeard model...

I'm not going to sugarcoat it; in my opinion, this is a terribly designed kit. The eclectic choice of colors here isn't doing this promotional image any favors, but the problems run a lot deeper than that. Designed to pull double duty as both Hammerers and Longbeards, this 8th edition kit saps all the uniqueness and character from both unit types in order to kill two proverbial Dwarfs with one stone. The kit is basically mono-pose: the head slots into the body in a very specific way, and the ball joint sockets for the arms might as well be for show. Jamming two different unit types into one kit also means there is no room for any interesting accessories or fun bits like (nearly) every other Dwarf kit has; there are only extra heads or weapons from the unit you weren't building in the first place, which in my opinion, have different enough aesthetics to warrant two separate designs.

Beyond the kit itself, though, the design you are left with after you put it together (if you follow the instructions) is egregious. Most glaring is the model's scale: these Dwarfs are for some reason far more bulky than any of their brethren, so much so that it's a challenge trying to rank these guys up on 20mm bases! (These 8th edition models I suspect are one of the reasons TOW moved their bases up 5mm) Their stupidly bulky armor, too, is bedazzled with this bizarre flowing curly-cue ornamentation that looks more like elven handiwork than anything Dwarf-crafted. Their helmets don't even have horns of any kind like the old designs, opting instead for an odd football helmet-esque look with these orbs on each side that I absolutely despise.

The worst offender might be the model's pose. While it might not be as bad when they are built with hand weapons, the great weapon pose has absolutely no character or energy behind it. I assume the idea is that they are supposed to be mid-march, but they look like they have about as much agency and personality as a chess piece. Embarrassingly, most of the Longbeard head option's beards barely even touch the ground! The one requirement to make this unit recognizable as what it is supposed to be, and they could barely manage that.

I will say the Longbeard unit champion in this kit (pictured front and center in the above picture) does maintain some of that original repose and character by virtue of leaning on his shield and great weapon, and in order to salvage this kit I relied heavily on these bits for my own Longbeards, which you may be able to spot in the initial photos.

That and some old reliable bits from the 4th edition Dwarf Warrior kit saved this build for me, but what stings the most about this new kit is that it is what two of the most iconic Dwarf units are stuck with looking like for most people for the foreseeable future. It has been kept in production solidly since 8th edition as an Age of Sigmar unit, and now with The Old World, it'll probably hold that course.

That being said, there's still a chance for some new developments with The Old World, as some units like the Dwarf Lord with Shieldbearers will almost certainly be getting new models. I'll keep my fingers crossed, but like any good Longbeard, I'll probably just keep sticking with the old stuff. :)

Thanks for reading this somewhat rambling editorial, I'll try to keep these constructive rather than full on devolve into GW-bashing all of the time (while that is quite fun...), but I had to devote some time to articulate why exactly I feel so strongly about this particular variety of Dwarf, as one does.

Not to end on a sad note, but Colin Dixon passed away quite recently, so if you have a moment, here is a very nice article memorializing his career as a painter and sculptor of miniatures:

[gleefullypolin]

I agree, I need them all. Good and bad, I don't care I am much better off for them. I don't want the beats of their romantic stuff so much as I want the overall beats for preparing myself if you get my meaning. Seeing what happens in text gives me a peace of mind while watching something with context. My husband hates spoilers but he knows I love them so he only asks me for them if he thinks he's going to get pissed off, ha.

My chaotic brain will both love and hate a huge cliffhanger. Love it because I've written fic for so long that it's just damned fun and hate it because I won't know what's coming and that's rude. I will be right along with you looking for spoilers. I will be ridiculous.

Oh I had dictionaries. Even a thesaurus, paperback style. I explained how a pager used to work to a teenager a few months ago and wanted to die inside the whole time.

Episode 4 is the second scene? You know, that makes a lot of sense actually even though I know most people aren't going to like it. If he has to watch Obi Wan with Penelope for episode 3 and he's already caught feelings by the end of 2, by 4 he's going to be a mess and a half. I heard that he just mopes and sits in a corner during the scene so if he's been pining and thinks all is lost and he can't even escape in a way that's worked for him in the past, he's going to have to do something about it.

With the LOWK of it all and she did not look thrilled during that dance with him in the trailer, adding in chaotic and unhinged Colin because of Kenebling (which is fair, I just see him not as an obstacle but more the physical manifestation of Colin's fear that he might have lost her to someone else in the book), I'm sure a lot is going to happen within that episode that gets us ready for the back half of the season and onto their happily ever after. That episode is going to be insane I'm sure.

Oh oh yes, I have been burned too many times. Let me be insane for one season then settle into just happily watching from then on. A perfect scenario for me really. Yeah, I've seen some nasty things and for people who have consistently accused others of such and such, I have yet to see the such and such, even in the replies on their nastier posts. If even the kindest posts asking for manners are met with vitriol from a ship's fans then maybe not everyone else is wrong about behaviors from certain fans.

My kingdom to hear a My Wife!

Just look at it as being paid to read fic. You've taken on the Man and gotten paid for leisure. And for years? Truly queen behavior right there.

I agree, I just need to know that A happens, then B, which leads them to X by the end of that episode. I don’t know to know how each scene plays out or how they say it, that is the beauty then of watching it play out. But at least I know that I will cringe at B, but I will cry with C and by the time I get to X all is right. Or perhaps I will hate X but by the time episode 3 comes it will be ok by F. Oh my word the way my brain works is terrifying. But my husband is the same as yours. He doesn’t want to know what is coming, he only wants to know if I’m going to be angry beforehand. And then he just laughs and says, oh dear.

I will hate needing to wait another month again, but another part of my brain hates me and will truly love all of it. Because I will sit and create angsty things and dream of scenarios in my head of lovely ways to fix it and isn’t that what fandom is all about anyway? Besides it gives me something to do other than sitting on twitter with my fingers cramping while I get angry over politics and the world. I prefer this to that any day! So, I’ll take the angst of romance, will they or won’t they, carriage rides, and waltz’s, longing looks, and trying to figure out how the story goes.

I think my brain works different as a watcher vs a writer. I think it goes to show writers CAN’T be trusted in some form. As a fic writer I am all about pain. I LOVE cliffhangers and putting my characters through the ringer. I mean I am also a happy ending writer so I trust that I will get my readers there eventually and not all television writers can do that for you. But I guess writers like a bit of a mess! Where is the fun in boy and girl meet, the end, right?

OH MY WORD you explained a pager! To someone from this day and age! That must have been terrifying. I work for a company that acquired a startup, and I have to say, we do not speak the same tech language. LMAO!

It does make sense! Because I’m sure a lot changes from 2 to 4. His brain has mushed from then in how he feels and his confusion has misted over from this BS “my friend Pen is not a woman” to “my whatever Pen is to me sure has plump lips and pert breasts” who is now dancing and giggling with Lord Kenobi all day long and now looking very troubled while speaking with him at that ball. I’m sure seeing her run out of the ball during whatever is happening (I’m assuming either a proposal or a price on LW head is happening)

And I’m sure before this ball is the brothel scene where Colin is all in his feels and not interested in anything else but what is playing in his head about Pen. So, he has gone to this ball with only her in his mind and maybe even realizes he loves her at this point so he’s realizing he’s lost her here. Then whatever happens she runs out and he goes after her, so I figure it has to be LW here because there has to be something that snaps for them both. And then the drama begins, because we pretty much end friends to lovers for part 1 and that is when enemies to lovers starts for part 2.

I literally don’t have the attention span for more than this season. I was gung ho for a couple years on Captain Swan and I burned out very hard, writing fics daily and spending hours until I had a literal melt down mentally. So my attention to the pretty will be here for this season and then I will need a head space break again I’m sure. It will be nice to then see them and be happy and not be stressed about the who, what, and where will be happening and just know they are happy. And hopefully the negative fans can crawl back into whatever negative hole they came from as they wish hell on the show they apparently only loved because of 2 people and will burn to the ground now without.

It is sad, when I was on phones, I would sneak a peek at a fic. When I got into leadership, I snuck off to write a few chapters. Once I hit management…I’ve been paid to write full fics. They love me. I have put in more hours than 40 in a week. So I’ve paid my dues, it’s mental health benefits to write on the side! Haha!

[jokerfic]

SO, have you seen the new Batman movie yet?

hell yeah I did and if you want thoughts I got thoughts, spoiler-free above the cut (aside from things you’ve probably garnered just generally, given that the movie’s been out for two weeks), spoilery under it!

Gotham City as a setting (always important) was outstanding. outdated buildings, dark, cramped interiors INSIDE the outdated buildings, raining CONSTANTLY, NOT cool, NOT beautiful, SUPER awesome Gotham my love <3 <3 <3 I always want a Gotham that feels like its own character and The Batman came through.

you guys may or may not know I have a parasocial feud with Rpattz that has nothing to do with his level of talent (which I believe to be above average). annoyed/pleased to report that I thought he did a great job here, i.e. I forgot it was Robert Pattinson even when he was out of the cowl.

SPEAKING of which, it’s a different take on Bruce, but I found it totally believable, especially for early-Bat-Bruce. as much as the brainless playboy fop is a great and hilarious defense, you can totally argue that painfully shy/socially awkward/depressed/scared of his own shadow Bruce Wayne is an equally effective defense against “What if Bruce Wayne is Batman?” Nobody meeting this Batman and then running into this Bruce Wayne the next day would connect the two and that’s the ideal dynamic for the two roles, no matter how it’s expressed.

oh and since we’re talking about dynamics Jim Gordon/Batman work husbands forever 🖤🖤 I feel like casting departments are continually trying to get around the ACAB crowd by casting the most affable and likable man as possible as Jim Gordon every time and Jeffrey Wright came through in a big way.

+ I know people complain about Bats and Catwoman having no chemistry but 1. I don’t think you can say there’s anyone Zoe Kravitz doesn’t have chemistry with and 2. idk, I found Batman’s stoic silence covering MULTITUDES of awkwardness around her very charming and telling. he was practically trailing around at her heels the whole movie. it was incredible for me.

this answer is getting too long, the movie is 3 hrs and there’s a lot to say about it, so here’s a flash review of the rest of it: loved the detective noir feel and Zodiac-esque plot, a nice return from the blahness of the DCEU in general. GREAT fight scenes. Reeves clearly did a lot of worldbuilding that you get glimpses of (the gang in the subway! the half painted face of the rookie!) but that there’s no time to elaborate on, which works to illustrate the world, but I’d love to see him with a series/television show to really build with. a little TOO long (some bloat in the middle could have been excised for a cleaner story but ah well). Colin Farrell was funny and charming but why Colin Farrell? it baffles me! for as little as Andy Serkis got to do, they didn’t deserve him as Alfred. love that they went full Italian for Falcone, finally lmao. great incorporation of classical pieces AND NIRVANA into the soundtrack. meme potential: infinite

MORE EXPLICIT SPOILERS BELOW:

Paul Dano leading an incel-esque redditor-esque group of wannabe terrorist-vigilantes via Twitch-style livestream was hilarious. I guess those tools do make up the hallmark of the modern geek, and the Riddler is nothing if not the modern geek. I loved his murderous little ass and I loved that he was a fangless dweeb once his computer was taken away-- that’s peak Riddler for you there.

also 😊 😊  our boy got himself a cameo 😊 😊 I know next to nothing about Barry Koeghan except that some of my friends are freaks for him, which, as far as I’m concerned, is a ringing endorsement. he certainly had an excellent Joker laugh and I loved the prosthetics that we could see. The nastier the Joker, the better, tbh. Apparently the next movie is going to focus on the Court of Owls, so I think it could be till the 3rd one that we actually get a new take on the Joker, but I’ve got my fingers crossed, always hopeful.

overall, IMO: good take on a Batman story! good casting, atmosphere, story, and the cast & crew’s genuine love of/loyalty to Batman really shows. it’s not the Batman I want to see for the rest of my life, but like... none of them are, though Nolan’s is probably the closest. I enjoyed it, I hope all of y’all did too :)

ps peter sarsgaard is cute as usual and if I was Selina I’d have scooped his tweaky little ass up and taken him far, far away from there. end post

[sciencespies]

How Viruses Evolve

https://sciencespies.com/nature/how-viruses-evolve/

How Viruses Evolve

The unusual cases of pneumonia began to appear in midwinter, in China. The cause, researchers would later learn, was a coronavirus new to science. By March, the infection began to spread to other Asian countries and overseas. People were dying, and the World Health Organization issued a global health alert.

But this was 2003, not 2020, and the disease was SARS, not Covid-19. By June, the outbreak was almost gone, with just 8,098 confirmed infections and 774 deaths worldwide. No cases of SARS have been reported since 2004.

Contrast that with the closely related coronavirus that causes Covid-19 today: more than 13,600,000 confirmed cases as of July 16, and more than 585,000 deaths.

Why did SARS go away while today’s coronavirus just keeps on spreading? Why, for that matter, did both these coronaviruses spill over into people at all, from their original bat hosts?

And just as vital as those questions is another: What happens next?

As we face the current pandemic, it will be important to understand how SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, is likely to evolve in the months and years ahead. It’s possible the virus could lose its lethal character and settle into an evolutionary détente with humanity. It might end up as just another cold virus, as may have happened to another coronavirus in the past. But it could also remain a serious threat or perhaps even evolve to become more lethal. The outcome depends on the complex and sometimes subtle interplay of ecological and evolutionary forces that shape how viruses and their hosts respond to one another.

“One thing you learn about evolution is never to generalize,” says Edward Holmes, an evolutionary virologist at the University of Sydney, Australia, and author of an article on the evolution of emerging viruses in the Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics. “It depends entirely on the biological nuance of the situation.”

Steps to viral success

Many of the scariest viruses that have caused past or current epidemics originated in other animals and then jumped to people: HIV from other primates, influenza from birds and pigs, and Ebola probably from bats. So, too, for coronaviruses: The ones behind SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome), MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome) and Covid-19 all probably originated in bats and arrived in people via another, stepping-stone species, likely palm civets, camels and possibly pangolins, respectively.

But making the jump from one species to another isn’t easy, because successful viruses have to be tightly adapted to their hosts. To get into a host cell, a molecule on the virus’s surface has to match a receptor on the outside of the cell, like a key fitting into a lock. Once inside the cell, the virus has to evade the cell’s immune defenses and then commandeer the appropriate parts of the host’s biochemistry to churn out new viruses. Any or all of these factors are likely to differ from one host species to another, so viruses will need to change genetically — that is, evolve — in order to set up shop in a new animal.

Pandemics — disease outbreaks of global reach — have visited humanity many times. Here are examples.

A recent mutation alters the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein to make it less fragile (the altered bits are shown as colored blobs). This added robustness appears to make the virus more infectious. Three sites are shown because the spike protein is composed of three identical subunits that bind together.

(DOE/Los Alamos National Laboratory)

Host switching actually involves two steps, though these can overlap. First, the virus has to be able to invade the new host’s cells: That’s a minimum requirement for making the host sick. But to become capable of causing epidemics, the virus also has to become infectious — that is, transmissible between individuals — in its new host. That’s what elevates a virus from an occasional nuisance to one capable of causing widespread harm.

SARS-CoV-2 shows these two stages clearly. Compared with the virus in bats, both the virus that infects people and a close relative in pangolins carry a mutation that changes the shape of the surface “ spike protein.” The alteration is right at the spot that binds to host cell receptors to let the virus in. This suggests that the mutation first arose either in pangolins or an as yet unidentified species and happened to allow the virus to jump over to people, too.

But SARS-CoV-2 carries other changes in the spike protein that appear to have arisen after it jumped to people, since they don’t occur in the bat or pangolin viruses. One is in a region called the polybasic cleavage site, which is known to make other coronaviruses and flu viruses more infectious. Another appears to make the spike protein less fragile, and in lab experiments with cell cultures, it makes the virus more infectious. The mutation has become more common as the Covid-19 pandemic goes on, which suggests — but does not prove — that it makes the virus more infectious in the real world, too. (Fortunately, though it may increase spread, it doesn’t seem to make people sicker.)

This evolutionary two-step — first spillover, then adaptation to the new host — is probably characteristic of most viruses as they shift hosts, says Daniel Streicker, a viral ecologist at the University of Glasgow. If so, emerging viruses probably pass through a “silent period” immediately after a host shift, in which the virus barely scrapes by, teetering on the brink of extinction until it acquires the mutations needed for an epidemic to bloom.

Streicker sees this in studies of rabies in bats — which is a good model for studying the evolution of emerging viruses, he says, since the rabies virus has jumped between different bat species many times. He and his colleagues looked at decades’ worth of genetic sequence data for rabies viruses that had undergone such host shifts. Since larger populations contain more genetic variants than smaller populations do, measuring genetic diversity in their samples enabled the scientists to estimate how widespread the virus was at any given time.

The team found that almost none of the 13 viral strains they studied took off immediately after switching to a new bat species. Instead, the viruses eked out a marginal existence for years to decades before they acquired the mutations — of as yet unknown function — that allowed them to burst out to epidemic levels. Not surprisingly, the viruses that emerged the fastest were those that needed the fewest genetic changes to blossom.

SARS-CoV-2 probably passed through a similar tenuous phase before it acquired the key adaptations that allowed it to flourish, perhaps the mutation to the polybasic cleavage site, perhaps others not yet identified. In any case, says Colin Parrish, a virologist at Cornell University who studies host shifts, “by the time the first person in Wuhan had been identified with coronavirus, it had probably been in people for a while.”

It was our bad luck that SARS-CoV-2 adapted successfully. Many viruses that spill over to humans never do. About 220 to 250 viruses are known to infect people, but only about half are transmissible — many only weakly — from one person to another, says Jemma Geoghegan, an evolutionary virologist at the University of Otago, New Zealand. The rest are dead-end infections. Half is a generous estimate, she adds, since many other spillover events probably fizzle out before they can even be counted.

Getting nicer — or nastier

SARS-CoV-2, of course, is well past the teetering stage. The big question now is: What happens next? One popular theory, endorsed by some experts, is that viruses often start off harming their hosts, but evolve toward a more benign coexistence. After all, many of the viruses we know of that trigger severe problems in a new host species cause mild or no disease in the host they originally came from. And from the virus’s perspective, this theory asserts, hosts that are less sick are more likely to be moving around, meeting others and spreading the infection onward.

“I believe that viruses tend to become less pathogenic,” says Burtram Fielding, a coronavirologist at the University of the Western Cape, South Africa. “The ultimate aim of a pathogen is to reproduce, to make more of itself. Any pathogen that kills the host too fast will not give itself enough time to reproduce.” If SARS-CoV-2 can spread faster and further by killing or severely harming fewer of the people it infects, we might expect that over time, it will become less harmful — or, as virologists term it, less virulent.

This kind of evolutionary gentling may be exactly what happened more than a century ago to one of the other human coronaviruses, known as OC43, Fielding suggests. Today, OC43 is one of four coronaviruses that account for up to a third of cases of the common cold (and perhaps occasionally more severe illness). But Fielding and a few others think it could also have been the virus behind a worldwide pandemic, usually ascribed to influenza, that began in 1890 and killed more than a million people worldwide, including Queen Victoria’s grandson and heir.

After rabbits were introduced to Australia, their population exploded. “They are very plentiful here,” says the handwritten inscription on the back of this postcard from around 1930. Scientists eventually introduced the myxoma virus to control the rabbit plague.

(Photographer Paul C. Nomchong / National Museum of Australia)

Scientists can’t prove that, because no virus samples survive from that pandemic, but some circumstantial evidence makes the case plausible, Fielding says. For one thing, people who were infected in the 1890 pandemic apparently experienced nervous-system symptoms we now see as more typical of coronaviruses than of influenza. And when Belgian researchers sequenced OC43’s genome in 2005 and compared it to other known coronaviruses, they concluded that it likely originated as a cattle virus and may have jumped to people right around 1890. They speculated that it may have caused the 1890 pandemic and then settled down to a less nasty coexistence as an ordinary cold virus.

Other evolutionary biologists disagree. The pandemic certainly faded as more people became immune, but there’s no solid evidence that OC43 itself evolved from highly virulent to mostly benign over the last century, they say. Even if it did, that does not mean SARS-CoV-2 will follow the same trajectory. “You can’t just say it’s going to become nicer, that somehow a well-adapted pathogen doesn’t harm its host. Modern evolutionary biology, and a lot of data, shows that doesn’t have to be true. It can get nicer, and it can get nastier,” says Andrew Read, an evolutionary microbiologist at Penn State University. (Holmes is blunter: “Trying to predict virulence evolution is a mug’s game,” he says.)

To understand why it’s so hard to predict changes in virulence, Read says it’s important to recognize the difference between virulence — that is, how sick a virus makes its host — and its transmissibility, or how easily it passes from one host individual to another. Evolution always favors increased transmissibility, because viruses that spread more easily are evolutionarily fitter — that is, they leave more descendants. But transmissibility and virulence aren’t linked in any dependable way, Read says. Some germs do just fine even if they make you very sick. The bacteria that cause cholera spread through diarrhea, so severe disease is good for them. Malaria and yellow fever, which are transmitted by mosquitos, can spread just fine even from a person at death’s door.

Funeral for a U.S. soldier who died of influenza in Russia in 1919. The 1918-1920 pandemic killed an estimated 50 million people worldwide.

(U.S. National Archives)

Respiratory viruses, like influenza and the human coronaviruses, need hosts that move around enough to breathe on one another, so extremely high virulence might be detrimental in some cases. But there’s no obvious evolutionary advantage for SARS-CoV-2 to reduce its virulence, because it pays little price for occasionally killing people: It spreads readily from infected people who are not yet feeling sick, and even from those who may never show symptoms of illness. “To be honest, the novel coronavirus is pretty fit already,” Geoghegan says.

Nor are there many documented instances of viruses whose virulence has abated over time. The rare, classic example is the myxoma virus, which was deliberately introduced to Australia in the 1950s from South America to control invasive European rabbits. Within a few decades, the virus evolved to reduce its virulence, albeit only down to 70 to 95 percent lethality from a whopping 99.8 percent. (It has since ticked up again.)

But myxoma stands nearly alone, Parrish says. For instance, he notes, there is no evidence that recent human pathogens such as Ebola, Zika or chikungunya viruses have shown any signs of becoming less pathogenic in the relatively short time since jumping to humans.

“Everyone has influenza,” reads a headline in a French publication from January 1890.

(Wellcome Collection via CC by 4.0)

The ones that went away

The faded nightmares of our past — pandemics that terrorized, then receded, such as SARS in 2003 and flu in 1918-20 and again in 1957, 1968 and 2009 — went away not because the viruses evolved to cause milder disease, but for other reasons. In the case of SARS, the virus made people sick enough that health workers were able to contain the disease before it got out of hand. “People who got SARS got very sick, very fast and were easily identified, easily tracked and readily quarantined — and their contacts were also readily identified and quarantined,” says Mark Cameron, an immunologist at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland, who worked in a Toronto hospital during the height of the SARS outbreak there. That was never going to be as easy to do for Covid-19 because people who don’t show symptoms can spread the virus.

Flu pandemics, meanwhile, have tended to recede for another reason, one that offers more hope in our present moment: Enough of the population eventually becomes immune to slow the virus down. The H1N1 influenza virus that caused the 1918 pandemic continued as the main influenza virus until the 1950s, and its descendants still circulate in the human population. What made the virus such a threat in 1918-20 is that it was novel and people had little immunity. Once much of the population had been exposed to the virus and had developed immunity, the pandemic waned, although the virus persisted at a lower level of infections — as it does to this day. It appears less lethal now largely because older people, who are at greatest risk of dying from influenza, have usually encountered H1N1 influenza or something like it at some point in their lives and retain some degree of immunity, Read says.

With the new coronavirus, Parrish says, “we’re sort of in that 1918 period where the virus is spreading fast in a naive population.” But that will change as more people either catch Covid-19 or are vaccinated (if and when that becomes possible) and develop some level of immunity. “There’s no question that once the population is largely immune, the virus will die down,” Parrish says.

The question is how long that immunity will last: for a lifetime, like smallpox, or just a few years, like flu? In part, that will depend on whether the vaccine induces a permanent antibody response or just a temporary one. But it also depends on whether the virus can change to evade the antibodies generated by the vaccine. Although coronaviruses don’t accumulate mutations as fast as flu viruses, they do still change. And at least one, which causes bronchitis in chickens, has evolved new variants that aren’t covered by previous vaccines. But at this point, no one knows what to expect from SARS-CoV-2.

There is, at least, one encouraging aspect to all this. Even if we can’t predict how the virus will evolve or how it will respond to the coming vaccine, there is something all of us can do to reduce the risk of the virus evolving in dangerous ways. And it doesn’t involve any complicated new behaviors. “Viruses can only evolve if they’re replicating and transmitting,” Streicker says. “Anything that reduces the replication of a virus will in consequence reduce the amount of evolution that happens.” In other words, we can do our part to slow down the evolution of the Covid-19 virus by behaving exactly as we’ve been told to already to avoid catching it: Minimize contact with others, wash your hands and wear a mask.

This article originally appeared in Knowable Magazine, an independent journalistic endeavor from Annual Reviews. Sign up for the newsletter.

#Nature

[killian-whump]

I know you weren't a big fan of s6, so if you could rewrite it, what would you change?

Everything.

No, I’m kidding. I mean, there were some things I liked about S6 and would definitely keep around. I thought the S5 finale set everything up for S6 really well. I was excited for the Land of Untold Stories, and all the tales that were hinted at in the scenes that took place there, and I love Regina, especially when she’s the Evil Queen in flashbacks, so I was all amped up for the dual Reginas storyline. S6 looked great from that point.

Then it all went to shit.

The Evil Queen thing was SO over-the-top, and Lana was playing her in a campy and ridiculous way that didn’t appeal to me at all. In hindsight, I can see that they were trying to keep her “redeemable” and play up the whole “still Regina, even as the Evil Queen” thing for the storyline resolution, so they needed her to only be quasi-evil instead of evil-evil. Okay, fair enough, but it was still super disappointing and even downright cringey, and I will never forgive them for turning one of my favorite parts of the show into a circus act. Honestly, if they weren’t going to do the Evil Queen justice, I would’ve rather they hadn’t gone anywhere near her. So that would be change #1: Drop the camp or drop that storyline entirely.

And they could’ve dropped it entirely. That exciting land of Untold Stories they teased us with in the S5 finale was... a let-down. Yes, we got Jekyll and Hyde and Captain Nemo... but the Aladdin stuff they gave us was more fairytale than literary classic, and wtf was up with the ridiculous one-off shit like the Count of Monte Cristo? There were SO many classics they could’ve visited, and greater detail they could’ve gone into with the ones they DID visit... and the Land of Untold Stories was so COOL looking, with its wild mix of architecture and dirigibles and steampunk style. WHY would you create such a fantastical and fun-looking world, and then take everyone from that world and put them in OUR boring ass world? S6 should’ve taken place IN the Land of Untold Stories and brought us a lot more fresh takes and characters from that land than the pittance we got. AND MORE STEAMPUNK, FOR FUCK’S SAKE.

I’m also still angry that they teased me with an asylum plot in the press before the S5 finale, then gave me a taste of it IN that finale... and then ripped it from my greedy, hot little hands. They didn’t even put Killian Jones in a straitjacket while they were there. What the fuck, guys? Who does that? That man was born to be put into a straitjacket for my enjoyment and you had him RIGHT THERE and even put someone in a straitjacket, but it was the wrong fucking someone. Had S6 stayed in the Land of Untold Stories, we could’ve had untold opportunities for more asylum whump, and they could’ve put Killian in a straitjacket and made all of my dreams come true.

And why the SHIT did they actually kill off Hyde when Sam Witwer was the best thing to happen to that show since Colin, himself?! I mean, yeah, the Jekyll and Hyde storyline was probably planned from the get-go to end in their deaths, but when you see what a complete GEM Hyde is, what with his penchant for the Evil Queen’s cooking and his ridiculously awesome facial expressions and his dashing dapper-do and Sam Fucking Witwer’s everything... change whatever the fuck you need to change to somehow keep this man on your show. And then they even went and full-on made this man redeemable and gave him a heartbreaking backstory right before they killed him. Like, fuck you? Seriously. Fuck everyone for that one. I will never forgive them for killing Hyde.

Okay. Moving on from my general complaints, we come to my Killian-specific complaints. And there’s a lot of them. S6 did that character SO wrong SO many times... I really just want to take it out back and beat the shit out of it.

For starters, his relationships were ALL thrown in the shitcan. It was like S3-S5 just never happened and he was right back to Square One with everyone, being that dastardly pirate that can’t be trusted and that no one could ever care about. People who clearly cared enough about him to go to the fucking Underworld for him in S5 were suddenly calling him a pirate like it’s a foul word, and blatantly telling him he’s not good enough to be part of the family. Yeah, I get it, they wanted some dramatic negativity before showing these characters fully accepting and embracing him as part of their clan... but you know what makes for really awesome storytelling? Realistic relationships that grow and evolve over the course of several seasons - which was what they fucking HAD before they threw them all in the shitter for fake “developments” that had already happened. And FYI, Henry was actually nastier to Killian in the beginning of 6x06 than he was during the Spell of Shattered Sight. Like, did no one at the writers table even pause in their pursuit of drama long enough to realize that if Henry really ever had that much animosity towards Killian, it would’ve come out THEN? Or, you know, at any point in the course of the last four seasons?!

And it goes without saying: I would never, ever, ever have had Killian be the murderer of David’s father. Or, at the very least, I would’ve never had the murder go down the way they showed it in the flashback. Have it be an accidental death. Have it be a pirate duel. Have it be anything but cold-blooded murder. First of all, it’s just not believable that David could forgive him so easily and so quickly for depriving him of a loving father for no fucking reason. Secondly, they spend four whole seasons showing us flashbacks of a pirate with a deeply-buried heart of gold, who kept wanting to make the right decisions... but ended up making the wrong ones time and time again. They never showed us, before this ridiculously cheap dramatic ploy, a man who willfully murdered people just for shits and giggles. Finally, Killian Jones is a motherfucking pirate. Stealing from the King is par for the course, but the whole “Dead men tell no tales” thing makes ZERO sense. Pirates thrive by striking FEAR into the hearts of their enemies, and you don’t get a solid reputation for being a cut-throat villain to be feared by literally killing off all the witnesses to your evil deeds. Pirates are like, one step short of going “BEHOLD! It is I, Captain PirateGuy, here to steal your gold and seduce your ladies! Be sure to tell all your friends and neighbors about this when we’re through.” So... yeah. Way to throw a completely nonsensical spanner in the works that makes literally NO sense and flies in the face of everything else you’ve said and shown about this character in the past. It’s shit, and I refuse to accept it, and they should be sorry for its very existence.

And then there’s Captain Swan. *sigh* This relationship fell prey to the same shit that ALL of Killian’s relationships were destroyed by throughout S6. Only it was much, much worse here - because this is supposed to be (and has been!) his closest, most important relationship. And yet... We see Emma blow him off and then lie right to his face in the very first episode. Then she lies some more in each of the next few episodes, and when her lies are finally revealed, she doesn’t even seem to give a shit about the trust she’s betrayed or the hurt she’s caused. And the fact that they even filmed that deleted scene with Emma giving Killian a flippant “I said I was sorry...” just shows how fucking tone-deaf those writers were. If someone lies to your face, repeatedly, over something of life-or-death importance and for a lengthy period of time, then basically gives you a “I said I was sorry, what more do you want from me?” twenty minutes after their lies are revealed, because you’re still sore about it... get the FUCK out of that relationship immediately, because that person does not give two shits about you.

Things only got worse when she snooped through his belongings, pushed him to propose on her terms and when she wanted him to (despite the fact that he was clearly drunk and troubled by something at the time), called off their engagement when he dared to keep something from her (despite the fact that she’d just recently spent weeks lying right to his face), believed that he would just abandon her completely despite everything they’d been through, lied to him again right before their wedding in the course of once again shutting him out and not letting him help her with something (even though that’s literally the EXACT reason she ended their engagement when HE was the one doing it)... I mean, come on. That is NOT the CS I signed up for, and I refuse to accept it as the CS that is my OTP.

Hence, the Dark Emma explanation was born in my head. And when it comes to changes to S6... I’d either completely re-write about 90% of S6′s CS storylines... or make my Dark Emma theory a reality. The theory is as such: Since Emma did not die in 5x11, but merely had her Darkness sucked into Killian/Excaliber before HE died... some residual darkness remained in her. Nothing much was seen/noticed in 5b (though Killian DID make a comment about her not sleeping...) because she was too focused on saving Killian. However, once she was back home, safe and sound with her man, the Darkness started showing itself. She lied to those she loved. She made uncharacteristically selfish decisions. She hurt people. She eschewed all she’d learned about letting others in and getting help from the people who love her. And it wasn’t until her literal and figurative death at Gideon’s hands that the Darkness was truly eradicated from her - and only THEN could she truly find her Happy Beginning.

Oh, and by the way, I also hate the writers for even HAVING Killian walk to the docks with a packed bag and even consider boarding the Nautilus and leaving town. No. Just... no. Having him even CONSIDER doing that is even worse than having Emma believe he WOULD do such a thing to her. It’s like they got the S6 writers out of a Cracker Jack box and not a single one had ever watched an episode of the show or seen this couple before in their lives. Their whole fucking SCHTICK is that he would NEVER abandon her, that he would follow her to the end of the world or time itself... and that, despite a lifetime of fears and abandonment issues, Emma Swan has come to TRUST that he would never leave her. YOU CAN’T JUST GO “LOL, THAT’S NOT TRUE NOW” AND EXPECT ME TO ACCEPT THAT SHIT. No. Fuck you. Fuck your entire season AND the boat it rode in on. Just... fuck, man. FUCK.

The wedding was nice, though. I loved the musical aspect. Everyone did great in it. It was a truly lovely episode in almost every way, although I didn’t care for Emma’s dress and especially not her hairdo. It was too stark, too severe, but somehow too fancy at the same time... and it seemed more Jen Morrison than Emma Swan to me. Other than that, though, it was lovely. Everyone looked lovely. The singing was lovely. The vows were lovely. Shame about the whirling black vortex of doom, though.

Speaking of things that suck, I would also like to set that fucking doily shirt that Emma wore in 6x17 on fucking fire. And she actually DARED to rescue my man in that atrocity. Did she not realize I would need to SEE that shitty article of clothing every time I admired that dashing rescue? Did no one think of the KWs of the world who would suffer from this fashion faux pas?!?!

Oh, and I hate that they literally had Emma burn Killian’s image in the curse and not have any kind of recollection. I mean, I get that they wanted Henry to make her believe, and the way they got him to do that was cute, but did they HAVE to show Emma looking at Killian’s picture burning in the fire and being like, “Eh, he might ring a bell, but not enough to bother thinking about for more than a second or anything.” I could’ve done without that scene, honestly, because it just comes off like, “This love isn’t strong enough to break through this curse!” and EXCUSE ME, but where’s the fucking fun in that? Haven’t any of those bitches ever read a goddamn fanfic?! LOVE BREAKING THROUGH A CURSE IS ALL THE RAGE, GUYS. That’s the kind of shit we like to read and see in our OTPs. What’s with this “Eh, let that handsome fucker on page 172 burn” shit??

Oh, but that scene where Fiona serves the charred remains of the book to Henry on a platter would need to stay. That shit was stone cold savage. That bitch came to play, and that scene straight up told you that she was NOT going to be sitting at anyone’s Thanksgiving table next year, asking someone to pass the potatoes like she was just named People Magazine’s Redeemed Villain of the Year or something. She meant business.

Finally, I think I would’ve ended the show with the S6 finale. Don’t get me wrong, I enjoyed S7 and I loved KnightRook and Wish Hook and all the excellent Colin content we got that year... but in hindsight, the Hail Mary play of rebooting the series really just didn’t work, and S7 ended up as the “extra chapter” the series itself didn’t need. It’s not that I would want to give up the awesomeness of what we had... It’s just that I feel like if we hadn’t had it, we’d be unaware of what we were missing out on anyway, but the series as a whole would’ve maintained more of its impact and dignity.

But then, we were blessed with Wish Hook and the wonders of S7 Hooked Queen, so... :D I mean, coulda shoulda woulda, I’ve got ‘em now and you can’t take that away from meeee...

[rocknvaughn]

Transcript of the new Colin Morgan Interview

Colin Morgan is a man of many talents. Enigmatic performer. Charming Ulsterman. Method actor. Qualities that have underpinned his ability to reinvent himself at every turn. Since bursting onto the scene over a decade ago, Colin has transported us back to the Middle Ages, explored the meaning of life as a twenty-first century android, and broken a few hearts as a troubled Victorian shrink. Gee Wong talks to the rising star about the intensity of the roles he plays, his way with accents and why he’s giving social media the cold shoulder.

Arranging an interview with Colin Morgan is a lesson in timing. Given that his brisk schedule and unforeseen events have thwarted our previously arranged powwows, it’s a relief when the phone eventually whirrs into life. He introduces himself in his deep loquacious Ulster drawl and all is forgiven. “I’m glad we’ve finally got the chance to talk, there’s been a lot of back and forth, hope everything is alright?” he says. The raw accent, while expected, is captivating to hear for the first time—largely because he’s a master at disguising those native vowels.

From the West End stage to television to the silver screen, the vocal gymnastics have been key to defining this award-winning actor’s march toward stardom. In fact, they often go hand in hand with the intense and angst-heavy roles he clearly relishes. “I couldn’t write down any specific reasons why I go for a part because it really is instinctive. It’s more of a feeling than a reason, you know what I mean?” he explains. “It’s like when you meet someone and you just click, but you don’t really know why, but you just do. It’s a bit like that. I’m meeting a character when I read it on the page and if it does something to me, it literally calls.” His confidence in an ability to single out roles is striking and the approach clearly works for him. “It has to be the only way. The scriptwriter, director and producer—theyre all on board because they’re passionate about a project and you’ve got to come in and respect there’s been a lot of hard work gone into the stage where they’re casting—these things can go on for years!” Auditions must be pretty intense then? “Yeah, I can feel it sometimes in auditions—if you can’t come in and deliver that level of what’s come before then you shouldn’t be there. You’ve got to love it.”

For his breakout performance—as the eponymous young wizard in the BBC’s fantasy drama Merlin—Colin owned an English accent so convincingly that his burgeoning fan base couldn’t quite believe he was from County Armagh. What’s his secret to cracking an accent? The answer is, of course, a lot of talent, practice and immersing himself in the role. “When I’m working on a character the voice comes first, or initially the way they move, it all influences each other,” he says. It’s a habit that’s seen him in good stead over the years. “Just like a runner training for a marathon, you need to do your training, listen to a lot of people, the way they talk and move, and imitate a lot because you’re working in the business of mimicry,” he admits. “It’s a case of muscle memory for me. I love accents, I love doing them, as many as I can really.”

He’s recently been back on the box—fine-tuning his Received Pronunciation English—in the supernatural period drama The Living and the Dead. It’s a darkly written role about grief and holding onto the past, with no shortage of terrifying apparitions to hammer home the message. What was it like returning to the fantasy genre after a few years away? “It’s weird because fantasy implies a story is lifted from reality. I don’t feel like I get affected by the genre because the character is just living their story,” he says. “For me, it’s all about the script and reaching into the character that I can inhabit.” The actor gave his all to the role, including staying in accent throughout filming. “I didn’t plan on it at all on the first day, but after we did our first scene it just stayed with me for the whole shoot. You’re in costume and even on your lunch break you’re still dressed as the character, you’ve still got the long hair and the beard,” he explains, laughing. “You still feel it—the person and the voice are just part of it.” So, in reality, not as odd as it sounds. “It’s just so much easier especially when you have a Northern Irish accent. To try and go from that to an English accent from 1894—they’re miles apart!”

Talking of his appearance, his fans set Twitter alight after the first episode. The reason? A sit-up-in-your-chair topless scene that let slip an ‘all growed up’ physique and, inevitably, a new-found pin-up status for the actor. It’s a far cry from his fresh-faced debut in Merlin at the tender age of 22. Nevertheless, the comments went right over his head—he shuns social media. “It’s just not me really. You have to want to do it,” he states without hesitation. “It’s an amazing medium for getting the word out for shows, promotion and for staying in contact, but there are a lot of negative sides as well.” Can he point out a few of the downsides? “When the words you want to say don’t have to be said face to face people tend to say a lot of stuff—that’s not something I think is healthy for an actor to be an open party to,” he adds. I get the impression he’s been burnt from personal experience and now views his privacy as sacrosanct. When pressed further, he confesses to a distaste for so-called ‘insta-stardom’ and all the baggage that comes with it. “The good stuff can make you arrogant, the bad stuff can stay with you forever,” he declares.

That said, don’t call him a technophobe. Although he doesn’t watch much television these days, he’s all for the BBC’s decision to simultaneously broadcast and stream his latest show. “It’s brilliant. It’s absolutely in keeping with how people are watching nowadays. When I do watch television, it’s on catch-up, Netflix and Amazon.” He does also venture online to shop and email. He has googled himself once—purely out of curiosity—which was enough to put him off for life. So, how does he receive feedback on his performances? “I never hear about it unless it’s mentioned to me. Fans show their support in many different ways. A lot of them write fan letters, which I think is much more in line with how I’m likely to respond.”

A low-fi solution indeed, but totally in keeping with Colin’s old-school, yet easygoing style. Not much fazes him: was turning 30 a big deal last year? “No, not really, weirdly. I can appreciate it’s one of those milestones in your life,” he states matter-of-factly before pausing and reflecting on intriguing new possibilities. “At the minute, I think I’m still on that younger side of the age bracket, but I’m looking forward to being an ageing actor and getting to play all those great Shakespearean roles as well.”

A busy year it certainly was. Having played the lead in the mystery drama Waiting for You, he returned for the second season of the UK sci-fi drama Humans. Apparently, there was tremendous pressure to live up to the first season, which was a surprise hit for Channel 4—its biggest show in 20 years. “It definitely went up in scale, much bigger, much faster, lots of new characters and more storylines,” he says of the production. “I think fans will have loved the direction it went in.” A third season looks like a shoo-in.

Then there was the closing chapter of The Fall. Over the course of the show’s story arc critics and audiences endured the stuff of nightmares as Gillian Anderson’s detective hunted sadistic serial killer Paul Spector, played by fellow Ulsterman Jamie Dornan. Colin joined the show in season two as enigmatic detective Tom Anderson and reveals it was equal parts tension and anticipation during the filming of the endgame. “A pure page-turner! I couldn’t wait to get the next page of the script and that says a lot about the writer’s skill,” he admits. What was it like working with Gillian? “Just brilliant. Gillian’s a consummate professional, such a joy to work with and she has a really good sense of humour. She had really heavy scenes, but she was just able to let go after filming.” What about Jamie? “Absolutely brilliant, he’s had global success and he’s exactly the same as when I first started working with him. He’s a real talent.”

If last year was good, then 2017 is set to be even better. He’s in final talks on a number of projects, including another film that he hopes will start shooting in the early summer. Meanwhile, he’s attracting considerable attention from across the Atlantic. “There are a lot of exciting dramas happening, and right now a lot of American things are coming through,” he says.

Talk turns to the day of his photo shoot, which I suspect might not have been the most enjoyable experience for the publicity-shy actor. “It was brilliant! The guys were so good! It was basically a group of people in a room with a camera having a bit of a laugh,” he volunteers, somewhat enthusiastically, before pausing as if to compose himself. After a few seconds he continues: “Obviously, in any of those situations it’s not a normal thing to be photographed, it’s not really second nature to me. So, anything that makes the whole experience relaxed, enjoyable and fun that’s the key, and the guys really did that for me.”

It’s apparent he draws a clear distinction between performing for his art and self-promotion—the later of which he accepts as part and parcel of his profession. “I think it’s important to divide the line between your professional and personal self,” he says. I press him further on how he finds the right balance between championing his work and maintaining a safe distance from media intrusion. “With so many shows being on TV there is a commitment in terms of publicity that wasn’t as strong as in the past. Yes, when you work on a job, it’s important that you’re proud of it and you want to support it. The other side of it is the nastier side, which can backfire on people.” A diplomatic answer tempered with his signature frankness.

It’s nearing the end of the interview, but his last remarks remind me of something he said at the outset that neatly sums up the actor’s perspective. “Whenever I did theatre, I’d go in, do the job, go home and trust that the work we had done was enough. We didn’t need anyone’s approval, disapproval or opinions.” In our current hashtag culture, it’s refreshing to hear someone completely unfazed by fame, while somehow still managing to wear their sensibilities so lightly.