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absolxguardian · 6 years ago

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How Flint’s war could have been won

A while ago I made a post saying that I believed that Flint and co could have won the war to drive Europe out of the new world. I didn’t want to do a whole big write up, unless someone was interested. But @artsymoth is, so here you go. It’s very long, so the rest is under the cut

Terminology

For the colonial rulers of the New World, I’m generally going to use the term “Christendom” rather than Europe. When it comes to the motivations of the war, things will get religious very quickly. Also, the Ottomans will be very important, and their Empire will be very important to the war.

I’m going to refer to Flint’s allies as the Alliance, even before I think they’d come up with the name. The full name would be the Alliance of the Americas (translated to whatever their language’s word for the continents are for their various native allies), since that’s the least relative to Europe name they could come up with. And it really will be an alliance, not a single army or would be nation.

Shortly after the show ends

Let’s just say that Madi was able to convince Silver to continue to prosecute the war is the change in the timeline. Just like in the show, the conflict between one’s own personal emancipation and freedom for all of their people will be the biggest threat to the success of the war. Because with Rogers dead and the cache secured, Jack becomes the immediate threat.

Jack Rackham

Without Silver, Jack has no hope to kill Flint. Beyond the status of wealth, he was born into, Jack is privileged and not invested in the war for ideological reasons. We see time and again that he cares more about safety for him and the people he loves than helping those like him. Either Flint is forced to kill Jack, or Jack, changing with the winds like he always does, never mentions the deal he had with Marion Guthrie. If Jack is spared, he will remain the biggest liability the Alliance possesses in the early days of the war. Featherstone is loyal to Max, but he lacks the shrewdness and will to do anything other than follow Jack when he’s the length of a continent away from Max. If Jack plays his hand, since Featherstone is known to be unreliable, he’ll be killed with Jack. As for the individual members of the crew, it will depend on each man’s reputation and temperament.

As for Anne and Max, Jack has no chance to outsail the news of Flint’s war. Two scenarios are possible. One, through the use of their new and less recognizable allies, Max and Anne are smuggled out of Boston. However, with Jack dead, Max and Anne would be assumed to be traitors as well. It is also possible that the Alliance simply doesn’t have the resources to spare. Marion’s patience towards Anne and Max will quickly tire when she realizes Jack is either dead or a traitor. But she seems to respect Max, so it’s possible that Marion will train Max as a protegee, well until Boston is economically destabilized.

Barbados

After regrouping on the Maroon’s island, the Alliance will next set their sight on Barbados, as it was already described currently revolting. With the massive disparity between the enslaved and white populations, the Alliance would simply need to help them take out the few entrenched positions and prevent any outside navel support.

As Barbados was one of England’s most successful sugar colonies, this would greatly bloody England’s economic nose and attract its ire, much more than the loss of Nassau. But England is currently defending against Spain in the war of the Quadruple Alliance, and so long as Flint doesn’t announce his true intentions, not only would England be distracted, but they’d likely still only be seen as a blip.

Julius arguing that the Maroons should fold to protect what they already managed to protect would likely dissolve when seeing an entire island of his people freed.

The Alliance would also have the chance to make another vital connection in the aftermath of the liberation of Barbados. Jewish merchants started the sugar trade on Barbados, but were pushed out by the English when the venture became established and profitable. As long as Flint made his intentions for a New World free of any racial and religious restrictions (a much better offer than England’s or any at the time) and a Spanish Empire humiliated, a fair amount of said Sephardim would join the Alliance, providing vital connections.

In that same episode, other pirates were talking about how easy it would be to take Jamaica, but if the Alliance were to bide their time, as the Sephardim from Barbados would explain, Jamaica could be handed to them even more easily. So I’ll discuss it in its appropriate section.

Nassau

With the Spanish gone and Roger’s dead, taking Nassau would be more of a symbol to Flint’s pirate allies than anything more The crews left would know the winds were turning, and would side with the Alliance instantly. I think the sheer fact that the Alliance needs sailors is the only thing that would keep Silver from fulfilling his threat to destroy any former pirates who took the pardon. Mapleton has likely filled the power vacuum and in return for Hudson’s assistance, sent the handmaid away to London. Mapleton would remain the governor equivalent of Nassau, although she is another liability to Flint. If at this point Max has rejoined the Alliance and totally wasn’t planning on betraying it a few months ago, she’d be who the Alliance actually appoints, with the assumption that she could bring Mapleton under control. Nassau would also become the Alliance de facto capital, if only because of how hard it is to reach the Maroon camp. This is where all the important meetings would occur.

Allies

Corsairs

What do you need for a pirate alliance? Well more pirates. The corsairs of the Barbary Coast and Medditerean are natural allies for Flint. Corsair crews also contained more Africans (especially former slaves) and Muslims than Caribean pirates, so they’d be more prone to accept Flint’s radical ideology. It’s likely that a handful of corsairs end up on pirate crews, and they certainly knew about each other, especially crews that hunted closer to Africa. So someone would be there to offer up such an idea as a suggestion and provide a way to meet them.

These pirates, especially the Barbary corsairs would, if they all worked together, cause the transatlantic slave trade to become unprofitable. And despite the language barrier (historically Caribbean pirate crews sold slaves just taken from Africa but recruited second generation slaves), many of those Africans could join the crews. The rest would obviously be returned, gaining the trust of their tribes. But I don’t think they’d be of much use, because given my understanding the level of colonialism at this time in Africa was simply of the “taking slaves” variety. But the economy of the Americas would stall even before the Alliance took each location because of part of the triangle trade no longer worked.

Many corsairs were privateers under contract from the Ottoman Empire or Morocco, and well, that’s going to be the biggest ally Flint gets, and the one that allows him to win the war.

The Ottoman Empire (also Morocco)

While the Ottoman Empire may not agree with Flint’s anarchist ideals, they just want to take away their biggest enemies’ economic advantage. It’s just not practical for the Ottoman Empire to have New World colonies. The Ottoman Empire can provide the Alliance with all the resources of a great power.

Morocco (and any other independent North African states, Morocco is just the one I know about) can provide all of their privateers. At the time, Morocco was threatened by Spain and the Ottomans. Now with the Ottomans on their side against Spain, they’d have a secure position.

And this is where it gets religious. Once the alliance with the Ottomans is made public, this isn’t some insurgents against England, it’s Christendom vs the Muslims (propaganda wise). I’ll discuss what that would mean for Europe itself later. But as a quick teaser, especially if Flint is openly bi and makes his promises of freedom for all regardless of race, religion, or gender, Christendom is going to paint him as literally the Antichrist. And I don’t mean propaganda and general hatred. I mean people are going to break out millennialism and revelations again. Jesus is going to come down from Heaven and fight Flint. But I’ll discuss if this inherent threat to Christendom will be more of a First Crusade or a Fourth Crusade later.

Jews

Now, this is how the Alliance will take Jamacia, almost the same way the Brittish did a generation ago. For a variety of reasons, Jamacia was full of Jewish/converso colonists. They provided the fifth collum the Brittish needed to take Jamacia. Cromwell offered them the right to practice their religion openly, but not protection from prosecution nor equal rights. With the help of the Sephardim recruited from Barbados, those same connections could be reestablished. If Anne and Max are part of the Alliance, their connections in Port Royal could also be used. The interior of Jamacia was also full of Maroons allied with the native Taino. An assault from both sides, accompanied with the usual slave revolt (the Alliance’s general tactic for the West Indies) will hand Jamacia to the Alliance. Jamaica is vitally important as a port because it is the best port to stop by when entering the West Indies.

Many of the Jews of the Netherlands (although those who hold a lot of stocks in the dutch west India company wouldn’t) would defect in their merchant ships to the Alliance. I could also see the Ottomans offering their jews (and other ethnic minorities in the Empire) the same rights as the Alliance would (the restrictions on Jews in Muslim nations did exist but were generally better than anything Christendom had) to prevent defections. Although as I’ll discuss later, this alliance may not be the best for the Jews of the rest of Christendom.

Natives

Most of the natives of South America would be too genocided to provide much assistance to the Alliance, but the survivors can provide information about the interior and help begin a guerrilla war to take colonies. The fact many of them are already allied with Maroons means their help would be easy to secure.

But in North America, the natives are the key to taking the 13 colonies. If they’re armed with European weapons and all working together, they can push back against the Brittish and the French. If the alliance is kept secret at first, France and England would be too busy fighting the Alliance War to provide much assistance. Then Alliance ships are in Boston Harbor. At this point, if Jack is with the Alliance, Max and Anne would be able to join them.

Defectors

Once the war really gets going, defection from Europe would be made almost impossible. But from captured ships, especially with how England is going to be impressing more people, defection will occur at a higher rate than previously. Crew members, weather navy or merchant, will be executed if they don’t defect, rather than set free without their goods. Because this is now a war. And it’s not a war between “respectable” Christian powers, but a war against savages and infidels. Christendom won’t follow the rules for PoWs at the time, and neither will the Alliance.

But queer people, protestants living in Catholic countries, Catholics living in protestant countries, and Jews will reliably defect when given the chance. I could even see them joining ships with the hope that they will be boarded. “Mark” Read was also part of the royal navy in the war of the quadruple alliance (in Black Sails), and given the chance, she would defect.

Trading

The cache won’t be of much use if the Alliance can’t find anyone to trade with. The same goes for Columbus’ secret gold mine (if it exists and is found) and Peru and Mexico’s silver mines once they’re captured (with the Urca de Lima in possession of gold, there has got to a gold mine in some spainish colony in this universe). Without slave labor, their output will only be a fraction of what Spain could manage, but still. Who can they trade with? The Ottomans are already providing them with resources as allies and the sugar plantations are being converted into food-bearing farms by those not interested in fighting. Some of the cache and silver can be used to stimulate the Ottoman economy and their trading partners, but I think they could probably cut some side deal with Russia. Since this is a big important war for the fate of Christendom, they can’t openly support the Alliance, but economically they’d want to hurt their western neighbors. They’ve also been Orthodox for centuries, so they’re not as religiously bound. The Jews living in Russia would provide the go-betweens. The same goes for the Holy Roman Empire, except the HRE is in the most danger from the Ottomans. But the HRE was notorious for not being able to control its princes, so a few lords more concerned about the short term could be swayed as well.

The biggest threats

Infighting

Oppressed groups can easily end up fighting each other. Pirates just want money and freedom, they aren’t concerned about the Africans and natives fighting their own war. The protestants could end up fighting the Catholics. Minority Christian sects might not be able to put aside their hatred of Jews and Muslims despite the promise of their own freedom. Different native tribes won’t work together because of their grudges. People start questioning the authority held by Madi because of their sexism and Flint because of their homophobia. People try to turn the Alliance to their own ends because of their own selfishness. The biggest threat to the Alliance is that some groups are promised amnesty in exchange for betraying the Alliance. Or they could splinter into different factions and Christendom picks them off one by one. As the war gets harder and more losses are sustained, the odds of this happening increase. The same factors that stopped the war before it began in the show could easily bring it all crashing down.

Christendom gets it shit together

Earlier I referenced the crusades. Those didn’t go well because, despite the political power of religion in the middle ages, people are still selfish, xenophobic, and more concerned about the realpolitik than ideals. Now the powers of Western Europe’s entire economic system is under threat, but they still might not work together. Fighting two enemies in a war is a lot easier than fighting an alliance of two enemies. Especially since Spain just finished going to war with the other European powers. Various armies may get distracted fighting over newly reclaimed land instead of continuing on. And despite the Ottomans, this would mostly be a Spain, France, England, and Dutch affair. Eastern and northern Europe would be less likely to get involved.

And unlike during the crusades, the protestant reformation now divides Christendom. The Pope can’t even try to unite everyone under his banner. Especially if the Ottomans use their navy rather than army to the support the Alliance, the HRE won’t feel too pressured to respond.

The main advantages that the Alliance has against Christendom are the benefits of defensive guerilla warfare, especially when it’s the “stand in a line a shoot” time period for warfare and this fact. If Christendom’s entire resources were to act in parallel to each other, Flint would stand no chance. But they probably can’t.

Reactionary Conservatism

It is a known principle that when challenged, a society will double down on its oppressive elements to defend itself. Just like how the slaves of the other plantations on Nassau were used as hostages against the slaves of the Underhill plantation, something similar will happen across the world. The cost will be high.

Slavemasters will become more paranoid about revolution. They can’t kill their entire stock, it just won’t work, but punishments will become worse. Once the news of alliances with native tribes gets out, the colonists will preemptively renew the efforts against their native neighbors.

Even if the Alliance didn’t offer total religious freedom and have Jewish allies, pogroms would still happen. They wouldn’t be organized, but the increased anti-semitic violence during the Crusades proves that it doesn’t matter. The destruction of the Holy Specluche resulted in the massacre of a Jewish community in France. But with Jews accepted by the Alliance, it’s even worse. The governments wouldn’t even bother with exile, those Jews would just run to the Alliance. Spanish ire towards New Christians would return, remembering how once conversos cost them Peru and then Jamacia, and are doing that again.

The same heightened religious persecution would effect Catholics in protestant countries and Protestants in Catholic countries. Such persecution and atrocities could also keep the Protestant and Catholic countries from playing nice with each other. This increased fear against the other could also turn Protestants against each other. I feel like the majority Protestant religion in each country would become more state-controlled, just like the Anglican Church. But such tightening would turn even protestant countries against each other. Fearing the other gets pretty inconvenient when you have to team up to fight the greater other. But I don’t know enough about each individual country’s religions, and also there would be a difference between the ignored hate crimes committed in rural villages and official government policy. Maybe this outside pressure could cause the reformation to end, but I’m not sure? Depends on how much Christendom gets its shit together. It’s much easier to hate someone who’s beliefs are a bit to the left of yours than those that are radically different. The Quakers probably won’t make it out of this alive, the pacifism and lack of accepting central authority will do that to you.

English discrimination against the Scottish, Welsh, and Irish would increase. This is just after the most recent Jacobite rebellion and the Alliance might not be offering them their homeland, but it’s offering them a place to start over free. The white allies found in colonies would most likely be poor non-English.

To add to the list of how Flint fighting this war makes things worse for the people he’s trying to help trapped in Christendom, the Alliance’s open acceptance of queerness would be matched by increased persecution in their enemies. Low key wealthy queer people, especially male ones, wouldn’t be given the benefit of the doubt anymore. Places who didn’t bother with enforcing their anti-sodomy laws would do so again.

Because the war is a threat to society itself, paranoia will reach Red Scare levels. And the government doesn’t have to pretend to respect free speech this time! The newborn Enlightenment would be strangled in its crib.

After the war

But then the war ends. It’s too much for Christendom to take. The high taxes they must raise to fund this war has probably caused at least a few internal conflicts. Maybe a civil war knocks some big player out of the game. Who knows?

The entirety of the New World is surrendered to the Alliance. The Ottomans get a few of their own concessions. Other than an initial agreement that any Jews/crypto-Jews remaining after the latest round of Inquisition get to travel to the Alliance, movement between the Alliance and Christendom will be restricted tightly. One's best bet would be to manage to get to the Ottoman Empire and go from there. America really would become the mythic land of freedom only spoken of in whispers. There probably isn’t an explicit ban against the African slave trade, but without the New World, it isn’t profitable anymore. Trade with the east either has to go through the Ottomans or around Africa. That trade is stopped by “oh those totally aren’t privateers who raided you, those are pirates” raids and those pirates who want to remain on the account move to the Mediterranian.

The Americas

Flint was never interested in nation building. But since no one wants to be delivered from one monarch to another, the resulting small allied states probably run on a combination of the pirate crew system and the Iroquois’ great law of peace. After that, I don’t know what will happen. Without Europe and with slave labor, can western style soicety remain in the New World? How long until they break out into war with each other? What culture is created by a blending of native and European culture without the oppression? Will interconnected soicety fall apart or will commerce continue? I don’t know. But a happy ending is only happy because of when you end it.

Europe

The scenario I have for Europe is very dark, literally. It’s another dark age. I’ve considered it being like the French being inspired by the Americans on a larger scale, but there aren’t any Enlightenment texts to inspire it and no one in Christendom was taking notes and listening to ambassadors.

The economy of Europe will collapse. There was a direct challenge to soicety, and it succeeded. Unless someone starts the Industrial Revolution, and fast, capitalism’s rise will be halted and slowly fall. And the horrors of war has marked everything. The ideas of the Renaissance are looked at with a new suspicion. Things like Thomas Hamilton’s saloons won’t happen anymore. Civil wars will flare across the Christendom. Russia, and to a lesser extent the rest of Eastern Europe will get out of it fine, but they will not tolerate any sort of subversive ideas. The HRE was already declining, and the war might have provided the last push in this timeline.

Despite things getting worse, the Alliance can’t go on the offensive. They won’t have the home field advantage “just wait them out” guerilla warfare tactics available, most of the Alliance just wants to secure safety for their people, and if they were to move against Christendom, the Ottomans would want the land for themselves. Driving royals out of some of their land is also a lot less messy than getting rid of them altogether.

The Ottoman Empire

It’s time for the Islamic Golden Age 2. Unlike Christendom, they won’t get the clock turned back when it comes to ideas. The Enlightenment, especially with the good trade relationship with the Americas, will happen here. But I doubt the Ottoman Empire will become as radical as the Americas. It’s still an Empire. They’ll move into a weakened Europe. Perhaps it will become a constitutional monarchy, partially modeled off of how the American states govern themselves. Perhaps, especially with how Sultans have to kill all their brothers, it will get so big it will just break into smaller states.

Africa and the East

Colonialism wave 2 will hit Africa sooner, at the hands of the Ottomans. Colonialism in the style of the scramble for Africa conquest, or perhaps, since there won’t be that much racism involved, Africa will be treated like other parts of the Ottoman Empire. Maybe the resultant states will scrabble for it themselves and take bits out of China. Or maybe since it doesn’t have enough seeds of capitalism, the industrial revolution will take much longer. At this point, I don’t know. Maybe some Maroons will suspect this and make sure the African tribes have European weapons. Will anyone ever bother to gunboat open Japan? How long until tyrants rise again in the Americas and they’re the ones to conquer the east?

The Inherent Randomness

Maybe there’s some lesser factor that would most certainly have a much bigger impact in this timeline that I don’t know about. I’d love if someone could tell me. I have a lot of spots in my knowledge here and would love to discuss and add on to this idea.

But there are things that can’t be predicted. Flint could get fatally shot securing Barbados and that’s how things end. Maybe elements and people that are irrelevant in our world are important in this timeline. That why I didn’t outline how I think they would win in the military sense. That would require responding to things and I don’t know what those things are. The farther and farther one goes through this essay, the less certain I am about these things. One thing I do know for certain, is that the TLDR for the war is an alliance with the Ottomans. They’re the only state powerful enough who’s own capabilities means they’ll actually ally with Flint.

Silver is right. The cost would be so high. It’s a war, and entering into this war is double or nothing.

#black sails #black sails season 4

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