#but yeah dec 3 2020 is when i first made this post and put it in my drafts lmaoooo

[thompsborn]

harley, at heaven’s gates: so being gay doesn’t send me to hell, then?

god: of course not. you are all my children.

harley: okay...

harley:

harley: daddy

god, turning around: nevermind

[goodgirlsfanficawards]

We’re closing out our fic promo posts with one last Motivation Monday! If they aren’t on there already, make sure you add these five authors to your reading list! 

softbrio ( @softbrio ) started writing Good Girls fic in April 2020 and have posted 32 works since then featuring a lot of fluff and soft Rio.

but tonight i'm gonna hold you so close

06 Mar 2021, T, 3.3K, 1/1

"But after everything, I don't hate you. I was scared, if anything," Beth said, staring at the wall in front of her. Her eyes fixated on the tiny crack in the wall. It was like them--together, but not perfect. "Scared of what?" Rio asked. "Getting in too deep, then driving you away,"

they say she’s gone too far this time

22 Feb 2021, T, 1.4K, 1/1

beth needs the gun that rio made her touch back, and he has a lovely idea of how she can *win* it back

after hours

18 Feb 2021, M, 1.6K, 1/1

He started to push her hair that was dangling into her view away with his hand, and he leaned in even closer. So close that she could just barely feel his breath on her neck, and it reminded her of when they were in that bathroom—and her bedroom. inspired by the s4 trailer.

Hereliesbethboland writes Brio fic for every occasion, from one-shot to multi-chapter, T to E, canon to AU, fluff to angst and everything in between. 

Table It

02 Mar 2021, T, 1.8K, 1/1

Rio shows up before Beth leaves for Vegas. s3 canon divergent ficlet.

In the Loss In the Gain

28 Feb 2021, E, 18K, 3/3

After handling her rotten egg Beth is ready to get back in the game. Can she gain the keys to the kingdom without losing herself? (Season 2 canon divergent after 'Slow Down Children at Play')

Scream

21 Feb 2021, E, 35K, 4/4

a little AU fic featuring Rio as Dean's boss and Brio lust at first sight…

Sdktrs12 ( @sdktrs12 ) has posted 24 Good Girls fics including from hefty multi-chapter AUs to canon divergent one-shots plus a number of holiday-centric fics.

A (very) Charlie Brown Christmas

14 Jan 2021, T, 2.1K, 1/1

“What is this?” Rio looks up from where he’s seated behind his desk, taking Beth in, who leans against the doorjamb on the other side of the large office space from him. She thinks for a minute she might have to clarify just what it is she’s referring to, but then he’s following her sightline and he rolls his eyes as he drops his pen, settling back in his chair with his hands folded in front of him. “Looks like a Christmas tree.” He answers glibly, rolling his shoulders back as she steps further into the office and Beth scoffs. “This is not a Christmas tree.” She laments as she gets closer to the desk, holding out one of the glasses currently occupying her hands to him, which he takes with a small nod before settling back into his chair. Her fingers come out to poke at the blue blanket that’s wrapped around the base of the small pathetic (supposed) tree, that’s currently sitting atop the desk. “You really are the grinch.” - AKA - A Brio Christmas party (but like, barely)

I Put A Spell On You (and now you're mine)

01 Jan 2021, E, 32K, 24/24

31 Days of Hauntober (A ficlet for every prompt from the #Hauntober Prompt list for October.)

Touch (without leaving a trace)

27 Dec 2020, E, 3.4K, 1/1

Kink Prompt 50. pre-brio. beth’s short at a drop and offers herself to the gang to negotiate more time. rio only watches as she get passed around, turned on but refusing to touch her. he comes to her later that night. alone. Gangbang, exhibitionism + GG Kinkfest Author Bingo Board #1 - Re-use a canon quote in a different context, Write a kink you haven’t written before, Include a scene with no dialogue.

delicatelingon ( @delicatelingon​ ) has been writing Good Girls fic since January 2020 including a number of one shots and a four fic PWP series.

A snowflake fell (and it felt like a kiss)

31 Dec 2020, T, 2.7K, 1/1

A small road trip out of state, only they don't make it all the way back…

Thunderstruck

03 Nov 2020, E, 1.5K, 1/1

Beth’s shitfaced. She’s so drunk she can’t stand without swaying, it’s like she’s on an endless rollercoaster and she doesn’t know how to get off. Relaxing a little, she lets him support some of her weight and she can’t help but nuzzle his neck a little. Rubbing her nose at his short hair, she lets out a kitten sigh, he smells heavenly.

What Mama Say (Life is Good)

03 Nov 2020, E, >1K, 1/1

“Thank you?” This was not going where she thought it were, but if this was something he’s into… then he looks up to her and she sees the vulnerability in his eyes and she thinks, yeah, maybe he needs this. She can do this for him. She makes her voice all soft, the way she’ll talk to her kids when they’re upset or just before bedtime, “don’t worry, you’ll always be my baby. Why don’t you come up here for a cuddle?”

Itsfatebaby has been writing a long-running kid fic series since April 2020 featuring Beth and Rio spending time with their own and each other’s kids throughout their lives.

Birthday Dinner

21 Nov 2020, M, 1.6K, 1/1

Just a nice birthday dinner.

“Adult”

21 Nov 2020, M, 2.1K, 1/1

Just someone who thinks they are an adult.

June 18th

03 Sep 2020, NR, 2.7K, 1/1

No matter what it comes once a year.

If you know of anyone’s tumblr/twitter and we haven’t found it or tagged incorrectly, please send us an ask to let us know.

[the-bejeesus]

To Those Who Say “I’m not gonna catch up on One Piece until it’s finished. Why would I watch/read 1000+ episodes/chapters when I don’t even get to know how the story ends?”

      Now for the past few years, when I came across somebody who said this, my rebute would be something like “Well the series is great already. It doesn’t really matter if I don’t know how it ends, because the journey itself is enjoyable.” or “Man if that’s your excuse, who you gonna explain why you read/watch stuff like Berserk, Hunter X Hunter, JoJo’s Bizarre Adventure, and My Hero Academia? Newsflash, they aren’t done yet.” But it came across my mind that I can now apply a completely different approach:

“If you start watching/reading at this pace right now, it will be over by the time you catch up.”

      If you’re a fan of the series, you’ll know that for awhile now Oda has been saying that he plans to end the series in just 5-4 years. Now he’s made lots of claims in the past that turned out to be ridiculous. However, many One Piece researchers have compiled his claims and found out that they only get more accurate as time goes on, with the most ridiculous claims being found to be myths. And with the most recent claims of ending the series in less than 5 years, even his editors who are usually skeptical have started to trust that he can do this. After all, he has officially set there to be only one more saga (which isn’t necessarily one arc, but it’s either going to be 1-2 major arcs or an anthology of 5-6 shorter arcs). And now that we can trust this claim, we can essentially extrapolate how many chapters/episodes are left and what pace we have to binge to catch up at just the right time.

If you plan to read the manga (black and white):

The manga in black in white is a perfectly fine way to enjoy One Piece. It’s what Oda draws, it’s how he intends it to be viewed, and best of all, it will be the first version of publication to finish.

     Out of the 1223 weeks since the first chapter published in July 19, 1997, 1000 chapters have published, meaning on average he publishes 42 chapters per year, or in other words, there are only 10 hiatuses per year (including holidays where WSJ does not publish). Now if I wanted to be more accurate, I’d only look at the chapters published this year, to exclude outliers like how he had no hiatuses for the first 200 chapters, or how he had a 4-week hiatus during the timeskip, but 2020 has been a bit crazy, so we’re not doing that for this or any of the others.

     Going off of this, the final chapter would be chapter 1212 in December 28, 2025 (yes, the 28th would be a Sunday again.) So here’s how you’d calculate the pace in which you need to read One Piece, and really this is how we’ll calculate it for every version)

     Now I know math is boring, but the reason I’m showing this to you is because the amount of weeks until One Piece ends will vary based on when you start this binge. Chances are you aren’t going to start the day you see this post, and there’s an even greater chance you won’t see this post the day it’s posted. For every example I’m going to assume you started binging on December 28, 2020. Now let’s try to use it for this example.

     And there’s your answer, just read 4-5 chapters per week. By the end, One Piece should be nearly over or have very recently ended. To put that into a different perspective, you could purchase and read just two volumes per month and you’ll be at prime pace. Or you could read one chapter every day, but only on weekdays.  If you want to, you can see this calculation in action in graph form.

     While this is a very rudimentary graph, it’s a basic visualization of what we’re calculating here. We’re calculating what speed we need to binge to catch up at exactly the right moment. I say exact, but ultimately no one can predict how many chapters there will be exactly, nor how many hiatuses Oda will go on during it. It will be important, as you’re nearing the end, to find a spoiler-free way to keep up on how close One Piece is to ending. To know whether you ought to speed up or slow down.

If you plan to watch the anime (subtitled):

For years now people have hated on the anime “terrible animation!” “terrible pacing” but at the end of the day, it’s the more popular version. Or the more viewed version I should say. And personally, I think that once you acknowledge its problems and learn how to deal with them, it’s a perfectly fine experience. There’s enough good voice acting and enough good storytelling that you’re easily able to ignore the problems. Plus, the animation has substantially improved since Wano.

      Now for this we’re going to have to change a lot of variables to get this right. We’re going to have to adjust when publication started, and recalculate when One Piece will end by looking at how slowly the anime adapts the manga, and how behind it is. The anime aired on October 20, 1999, and has aired 956 episodes since then. This means on average they air 44.9 episodes per year, meaning there is pretty much only 7 breaks the entire year. With these 956 episodes, they have adapted 955 chapters, making the pace almost exactly one chapter per episode. However this is really inaccurate, considering all the better-paced arcs earlier on in the story. Looking solely at episodes 2012 and onwards, the anime adapts at a pace of 0.65 chapters/episode.

     Knowing that there are roughly 212 chapters left, and Toei adapts at 0.65 chapters per episode, we can assume that there are going to be roughly 324 episodes left. That sounds like too many, but keep in mind that there will be several, several instances where the manga will be on hiatus whereas the anime will keep on airing. Knowing there are approximately 324 episodes left, and that the anime only takes about 7 breaks a year, we can assume that it will take 7 years, or 374.49 weeks before the anime will end. So now we have the information we need to do the math again.

x = 1280/374.49

x = 3.417 episodes/week.

     It may seem like a more relaxed binge, since you get a whole 2 extra years to binge, and you only have to do 3-4 episodes per week, compared to the 4-5 chapters. But keep in mind that these episodes are 24 minutes each. Still not at all bad, but you will be spending more time on it overall.

If you plan to watch One Pace:

One Pace is a fan project that edits the anime so that filler and padding is cut, other edits will be made to make the anime more manga-accurate, such as reorganizing scenes, or adding title cards where absent. Originally only used by a niche number of One Piece fans, One Pace has grown in popularity, and has tried to improve its quality to accommodate more fans, such as making their episodes Dual Audio (meaning you can switch between the dub and original Japanese audio tracks), and including Spanish subtitles.

      You’d think we’d have to adjust for when One Pace began, how slowly One Pace catches up, and the works, but there’s not much to calculate. Fortunately for us, no matter how far behind One Pace is on editing the current arc, they always like to wrap things up just a few weeks within when an arc ended, if not the very same week. So really all we have to calculate is how many One Pace episodes there will be by the end of all this, so that we know how many you’ll need to watch per week.

      Looking solely at what they’ve covered so far, One Pace has taken 573 episodes and condensed it down to 259 episodes. That’s a pace of 2.21 anime episodes/ paced episode. Earlier we calculated that there would be 324 episodes of the anime left, making for 1280 episodes total. This would mean that there would be around 578 One Pace episodes by the end. And One Pace would probably wrap up in, let’s say 376 weeks, because as I said, they’ll probably finish editing the final arc a week or two after the last episode airs.

x = 578/376

x = 1.53 episodes per week

      Now that’s a relaxed pace. 1-2 episodes per week? That’s so slow, I’m not even sure if I’ll remember what I watched last week next time I watch some episodes. The only problem is some of the pre-timeskip still haven’t been edited. They’ll probably be done by the time they finish the final arc, but that’s not gonna work out fast enough. You’ll hit your first roadblock about 7 weeks in when you need to watch the Baratie arc and it’s not done. And don’t even get me started on how many arcs aren’t done in dub or Spanish sub yet. Hopefully you could just switch to the anime or manga when you hit these arcs, readjusting how many episodes/chapters you need to watch/read when you do. But that’s a bit of an excessive amount of math for something that’s supposed to be fun. So yeah, if you’re still convinced you shouldn’t get into One Piece until it’s ended, maybe this is the option for you.

If you plan to read the manga (Colored):

Since 2012, Shueisha has made a colorization of One Piece. It’s not a fan coloring, it’s as official as it gets. Many consider the color schemes portrayed in this version as the most canon, as the majority are pulled straight from whatever colored illustrations of Oda’s they can find. And quite frankly it makes the manga at least 10 times more beautiful. It’s especially great if you have trouble interpreting dense, small black and white panels.

      This one is a doozy. You’d think all I gotta do is calculate how far behind the colored manga usually and just adjust from there, right? Wrong. Because how far behind the colored manga is, or how frequently they release volumes in full color, is one of the most inconsistent things I have ever seen. You wanna see what I’m talking about? This is how they’ve chosen to release each volume since 2012:

Volume 1-12: July 15, 2012

Volume 13-23: September 28, 2012

Volume 24-63: December 4, 2012

Volume 64-65: April 4, 2013

Volume 66-68: December 20, 2013

Volume 69-70: August 25, 2014

Volume 71-72: September 16, 2015

Volume 73-75: October 4, 2016

Volume 76: December 2, 2016

Volume 77: March 3, 2017

Volume 78: July 2, 2017

Volume 79: September 4, 2017

Volume 80: December 4, 2017

Volume 81-82: March 3, 2018

Volume 83: October 4, 2018

Volume 84-86: August 2, 2019

Volume 87-92: September 16, 2020

     How I am supposed to find out how long it will take for Shueisha to colorize the final volume of One Piece is beyond me. I guess the first step would be to look at how far behind the manga each release was on average, but I’m going to ignore all the ones before 2013, because those were clearly just Shueisha catching up really fast cause they just started and didn’t want to be dozens of volumes behind forever. So of the 14 publications between 2013 and now, on average the last chapter of the last volume they colored was 97.78 weeks after that chapter had published in Weekly Shonen Jump. This means that if the final chapter of One Piece is chapter 1212 on December 28, 2025, then you can expect the final colored volume to publish November 14, 2027.

x = 1212/359

x = 3.37 chapters/week

     So if you prefer the manga but don’t want to read 5 chapters every week for 5 years, this might be a better option for ya. But yea, I have no doubt my prediction is at least a little off for this one.

If you plan to watch the anime (dubbed):

Unlike the 4KidsTV and Odex dubs of One Piece, the FUNimation dub is a perfect way to enjoy One Piece. The DVDs come with enjoyable commentary and a marathon mode, great for binging.

       FUNimation’s releases of the dub are inconsistent, although not nearly as erratic as the colored manga release. However, there was recently a 2-year hiatus we only just got out of. Since Episode 1′s dub in May 27, 2008, the dub has gotten as far as Episode 614. But that’s only looking at the DVD releases. If you’re willing to stream on FUNimationnow, the dub is as far as 641, and if you’re willing to digitally purchase it from an e-shop such as the Microsoft store, it goes all the way to Episode 654. With that being said, that would mean that on average, FUNimation dubs 1.004 episodes per week. Although if we go back to before the two-year hiatus so as to exclude it from the average, it’s actually 1.10 episodes per week. Not a huge difference, actually. And then if we look solely after the two-year hiatus, it’s actually 2.25 episodes per week, which is insanely faster. It’s hard to tell what the future of the dub will be. I can’t assume they’ll go this fast forever, so I’m just going to take the average of all 3 and say it’s 1.45 episodes per week. Don’t know if that’s the best mathematical approach, but the number seems about right.

     So knowing that the dub is at Episode 654 and looking at our previous guesstimation that the anime will be 1280 episodes long, we can predict that it will take 431 weeks before the dub catches up and ends. That would be in 2029! Sounds quick at first until you notice it’s 4 years behind!

x = 1280/431

x = 2.96 episodes per week

      Looks like it’s almost exactly 3 episodes per week. Not as much less of a workload as I expected, compared to catching up to the sub. You know, I figured those 4 extra years would make you binge a lot slower.

Final Thoughts:

      There’s a lot of my math that was estimation, approximations, extrapolations. Feel free to correct me or fact check me, especially if you plan on using this. I figured this would be a fun thought excercise. There’s also a lot of smaller variables I simply didn’t want to take into account because of how long this is already. For example, reading the black and white manga. The calculation can vary slightly depending on if you read it the day it’s published (which I assume would have to be a fanscan unless you can read Japanese), reading the weekly publication legally on Viz.com, waiting for the physical volume release. The dub can also vary depending on whether you buy from Microsoft, wait for the FUNimationnow release, wait for the DVDs, or wait for the Collection sets. So feel free to take this into account.

[thetaylorfiles]

To your anon asking about TTB promises. She promised no second wedding, no male pronouns or male love interests on Lover, a coming out, Karlie leaving in August, no Josh at holidays, no way they go to awards, absolutely would she not include him in her documentary because it woul be about coming out. The list is rather long. The truth is people left over stopped calling her out on always being wrong. And every month for the last 2 years dont worry, its almost over the girls are fine.

Wow. Great memory.

Let’s list all of TTBs lies, promises and predictions that never came true. For posterity.

TTB promised there would be:

[[MORE]]

1. No Joshlie wedding. At all. And no second Joshlie wedding. (Both happened!)

- in fact the plan, according to TTB was: to gently introduce Kaylor to the public.

- announce engagement > call off engagement > have Taylor be seen providing emotional support to a heartbroken Karlie > after a while, explain that spending time together amid this upset made them realize they were more than just friends!

Oops. Never happened.

2. No male pronouns on Lover (several songs with male pronouns!)

3. No male love interests on Lover (clearly a male interest in Lover. And no, London Boy isn’t satire. It’s tongue in cheek)

4. Karlie being “free” in August each and every year. (and many, many more times)

5. No Josh at holidays.

(Yet somehow they seem to be together for thanksgiving and NYE and several Jewish holidays every single year.)

6. Joe and Taylor not attending awards shows together (so far they’ve attended: Golden Globes, Cats premiere, and NME awards)

7. Joe not being included in the documentary (Taylor literally runs into his arms backstage)

8. The documentary would be about Taylor coming out

I remember (and edited to add other peoples recollections)

9. Taylor was supposed to come out after Rep tour was over.

10. Taylor was supposed to come out the day she announced her new single “ME!” In fact, the announcement was meant to be her coming out, but instead was her new single.

11. Joe would be gone before Rep Tour

12. Joe would be gone after Rep Tour.

13. Joe would be gone before Lover Promo

14. Joe would be gone after Lover release.

15. Karlie would be free from Josh literally too many times to count. She always says that the contract is up in August. Then she says Karlie re-ups.

16. Taylor was going to come out on the last day of Pride month but scrapped those plans and instead released her statement about Scooter and Scott. That the masters changed everything so she couldn’t come out.

Now, had she intended to come out, and changed her mind that very last day upon learning of the master sales, she would’ve had to:

- add 4 new songs about a male

- chang all pronouns on lover from “her” to “him”

- remanufacturing every copy (how many DNAs did that need)

- create and chang diary entries

- all this would’ve had to be done whiles Taylor spent the first week of July with her friends on vacation. And while Karlie was on a yacht with Scooter, posting several instagrams documenting it.

- Then she went straight into filming ‘Lover’ video with a man. All this in a matter of a week or two, while on vacation, right before Lover came out. (Thanks to the anon for help!)

17. She claimed Karlie never followed Joe, when in fact, she did after K’s Rep concert. A week later, she unfollowed him. Also her sisters and Josh unfollowed Taylor in that same time frame.

18. She claims that when a beard wears blue, a breakup will occur and Taylor will be free of her contract. That Taylor plans it this way. TTB has said the inevitable breakup is going to happen when Joe wears blue numerous times yet this has never come to fruition.

19. Any time there is an article about Joshlie or Joe and Taylor, ttb claims its ALWAYS “seeding” a breakup. Yet, the breakup never, ever comes. (And no one in entertainment uses the phrase “seeding”. That’s a pure conspiracy theorist term. Like “crisis actor”).

20. She once promised a nervous anon that Josh and Karlie would never actually marry. They’d only be faux engaged to make it all seem real.

21. Claimed that Karlie and Josh didn’t go to New Zealand together over the New Year. Said Josh went alone and Karlie only flew in one day to take all the pics with him- in multiple clothing changes- to get all the pics necessary for the “stunt”. Even though everyone outside of Kaylorland already believes they’re a married couple and the “stunt” got zero publicity.

22. TTB claimed many times no beard would ever attend an important event or red carpet with Taylor. Then Joe went to the Golden Globes with her, then the Cats premiere, and then the NME awards. Oops! Wrong each and every time.

23. When Joe and Taylor vacationed in the Turks and Caicos TTB claimed Joe was flown in for a quick photoshoot and flown right back out. Except the next day, he was still there and there were new pictures.

24. Claimed for MONTHS after the Joshlie wedding that it was a “photoshoot”, not a wedding. That it would soon show up in Vogue. Then it was Vogue Brazil. (The wedding was never in a magazine)

25. She also claimed it was all a giant ad for Dior. The photoshoot would be one big advertisement for Dior. (The wedding was never an ad anywhere for Dior)

26. After several Vogue magazines came and went after, TTB claimed that Josh was having the article and photoshoot put on hold so that they could release it at a time that Trump made a big gaffe and Josh would need good press. The idea being that if Trump messes up, this somehow reflects badly on Josh, though it never has.

27. TTB and Kaylors claim that the reason why Karlie and Taylor stopped hanging out in public was so as not to tarnish Taylor’s reputation by being associated with Trump. Yet, Kelle went backstage at Rep after Trump was elected.

Anyone who knows about magazines or has seen the documentary The September Issue knows that the magazine layout is planned months in advance and articles and photo shoots are put in in a timely manner. Someone like Josh would have no bearing on getting to hold it back. (The wedding never showed up in any magazine and Trump made gaffes constantly).

28. TTB also claimed that they were no longer being seen in public anymore so that the public would start to ask and wonder why they weren’t “friends” anymore. Which would “seed” a coming out story.

29. Ttb claims she’ll have definitive proof this Monday, 9/7/20/, in the form of “tea” she’s been dangling in front of her followers for months now, that will prove the existence of Kaylor.

And she posted a submission that proved absolutely nothing! Just a screenshot of Karlies insta story from May that shows the reflection of one open white umbrella and one closed white umbrella. Apparently Taylor has two white umbrella near her pool in Beverly Hills. Ttb believes this is definitive proof that Karlie and Taykor have been together in LA for months.

This was wholly underwhelming and easily disputable. Taylor’s jet has been in Utah, with Joe posting a few pics of him hiking there. Her jet has also been in RI. Then the jet went to England. While the jet doesn’t prove Taylor wasn’t in BH the whole time, it sure does make it much more likely than a reflection in glass of an umbrella.

30 TTB claims that josh posted an Instagram on 9/3 of a sunset to indicate the sun setting on his relationship with Karlie. A message sent to Kaylors. No divorce as of yet!

31. Going along with the above, TTB also claimed that she expects Joshlie to announce their divorce on 9/4/20 because it’s the slowest in the news cycle. A Friday afternoon before a holiday weekend. Yet, no divorce news and Trump calling fallen soldiers “lovers and suckers” is dominating the headlines.

32. Prior to the Kushner biography being released TTB predicted/promised that it would mention Josh’s homosexual proclivities in some way: the bearding or Mikey. And at the very least, it would paint him to be the giant criminal that she claims he is.

Instead it did nothing of the sort. It only talked about how strong his love for Karlie was. That despite his parents being unkind and unaccepting to her for several years, he stuck it out with her. It also addressed her conversion to Judaism.

33. Ttb likes to claim that Karlie never converted to Judaism. She says that because Karlie has never spoken the exact words “I converted” that it means she hasn’t. Despite the fact that many Jewish people have told her that when Karlie told Andy Cohen that she “joined the tribe” that, was, in fact, how Jewish people say they converted.

Karlie has also spoken at length in interviews and her own musings about her conversion. Ttb still refutes this and sometimes will post anons who write in questionable and anti Semitic references.

34. There was a period of time where TTB claimed that Josh needed Karlie as a beard in order to get an inheritance from an old aunt of his. This aunt stipulated in their will that he MUST be married to a woman in order to collect the money. Shockingly (to no one) TTB started claiming this right after josh and Karlie got married.

A few months later, the aunt and the inheritance disappeared never to be spoken of again. Which was absurd to begin with considering Josh is reportedly worth $800 million. Which could be off considerably, but even if it is? Even if he’s only worth $100 million? Yeah, he’s good. He doesn’t need an aunts inheritance.

35. These days (September of 2020) TTB is claiming that Karlie is staying with Josh in the contact for bearding willingly. This is a drastic change of narrative from years past when she claimed he was essentially blackmailing her to stay. For the Aunt inheritance, for not telling the world her and Taylor’s secrets, etc.

**** this hasn’t been updated in a few months. It’s now Dec. 1st. I’ll do my best to fill in a couple more below soon. There’s been a handful or two of lies that need to be recorded.****

36. People Mag announces that sources close to Karlie say she’s pregnant with Josh’s kid. Ttb refuses to believe it until Karlie herself confirms it, though in the past she has specifically stated that People is the one mag you can trust as publicists use it as a vehicle to get the truth out about their client.

36. Ttb stated emphatically and multiple times that IF Karlie is pregnant it CANNOT be a Kaylor baby because it would not tarnished by having a Kushner last name and being tied to that “organized crime” family. Nope. Taylor is in no way involved.

And now that Karlie has confirmed the pregnancy, what do uou know? Ttb conveniently changes her time, forgets all she’s said in the past and seems to be firmly on the “oh, it’s totally a Karlie/Tayklor baby. I thought so all along”.

Now, Karlie is there willingly. And when an anon asked whyC her answer was “it’s all part of the narrative.” As if that’s a sufficient answer.

37. TTB said Joe and Taylor’s career paths would never intertwine.

And now they’ve written 5 songs together. One on which he played the piano too.

There’s a lot more especially about Karlies pregnancy but I don’t have the time or energy to fill it in right now. Back soon to do it.

Anyone else remember anything specific? Let’s come up with a comprehensive list.

[gumnut-logic]

We’ll Be Home For Christmas 3.4

Title: We’ll be home for Christmas

Day Three - If not for the courage of the fearless crew – Part 4

Prologue | 1.1 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.3

Author: Gumnut

29 Dec 2019 - 4 Jan 2020

Fandom: Thunderbirds Are Go 2015/ Thunderbirds TOS

Rating: Teen

Summary: The boys can’t fly home for Christmas, so they have to find another way.

Word count: 4342

Spoilers & warnings: language and so, so much fluff. Science!Gordon. Artist!Virgil, Minor various ships, mostly background.

Timeline: Christmas Season 3, I have also kinda ignored the main storyline of Season 3. The boys needed a break, so I gave them one. Post season 3B, before Season 3C cos we haven’t seen it yet.

Author’s note: For @scattergraph. This is my 2019 TAG Secret Santa fic :D I hope you enjoy it.

I’m probably posting this before it is ready and I’m not happy with the ending so may change where it ends when I start writing the next part, but I really need a little cheering up today, so here be the next 4000-odd words of this fic. I hope you enjoy them :D

Many thanks to @vegetacide and @scribbles97 for cheering me on and their wonderful support through this craziness. And to @onereyofstarlight for geeking out with me over the setting.

Disclaimer: Mine? You’ve got to be kidding. Money? Don’t have any, don’t bother.

-o-o-o-

They stashed their luggage in the hostel, a large white and wooden building that had obviously seen many residents over the years, but was well loved and maintained.

Melissa gave them a quick tour of the compound. It consisted of series of buildings similar to the hostel but of varying sizes over looking the ocean and the adjacent Oneraki Beach. The island was basically a triangle with the encampment on the north facing side high up on Fleetwood Bluff. There was something about a Flagstaff but Virgil missed it...mainly due to the conversation Gordon and Sam were laughing over behind him.

Whatever it was called, the view was magnificent. Far below in the bay, A Little Lightning was a small white smudge on the blue of the Pacific.

Melissa ran them through the rules of conduct on the island. No one was to venture anywhere on the island outside the compound unaccompanied by a DOC employee. Please keep your luggage inside the hostel. All life is protected on the island and in the waters. It was illegal to damage or remove anything. No littering. The list went on.

It was a long one.

Apart from being a cetacean biologist and a loud talker, Sam was also apparently the resident cook on the island. Melissa put no claim to any culinary skills, so had left it to Sam.

The man had baked a cake.

A Christmas cake.

In their isolation on the boat, despite their aim to be home for Christmas, Virgil had forgotten it was the day before Christmas Eve. December twenty-three.

It wasn’t the first time he had forgotten Christmas. Three years ago he had spent Christmas dragging survivors off the Amazon flood plain when the river engulfed an entire city. Christmas had been obliterated. As had the two months after due to the damn fever he had caught from those flood waters. It hadn’t been a great start to the year.

But this year it was different. They were on vacation. A forced vacation, but a vacation nonetheless, of which the whole purpose was to get home in time for Christmas. Yet the decorations and the tree in the corner of the communal hall had taken him by surprise.

The cake was very nice. He had to hold Alan back from grabbing seconds. But it got him thinking about the day after next and what they would be doing as a family.

“He sang to the whales?!”

Virgil jumped at Sam’s exclamation somewhere behind him.

“Yeah, he did. You should have heard it. It was incredible.” Virgil’s eyes widened at the pride in Gordon’s voice.

“They didn’t pay any attention, though, did they? All previous attempts have failed.”

“Ho, Sam, I have to show you the recordings. They responded alright. Virg may not speak whale, but he knows how to speak emotion. Mamma whale definitely understood something.”

Virgil buried his face in his coffee. The experience was still raw. He wasn’t sure he wanted to talk about it and it was inevitable that he would be asked.

“What did he use?” And the conversation dropped to normal levels. Virgil’s name was mentioned several times along with John’s. Sam was eager and excited.

Virgil felt dread.

“You okay, bro?” Alan was frowning at him while hoovering the second piece of cake Virgil had already told him he couldn’t have.

Why did he bother?

“So I guess we’ll be hauling in extra food supplies for these people after you’ve finished with them.”

“It was one piece of cake.”

“It’s the only cake, Alan.”

His brother’s eyes widened in realisation. “Oh.”

“Yes, oh.”

“I’ll bring them something before New Years.”

“Yes, you will.”

“Or maybe Scott can. He might want to visit.”

“What? Why?” But Alan was gesturing with his head in the direction of their eldest brother.

Deep in conversation with Melissa Fisher.

Virgil raised an eyebrow.

-o-o-o-

“So by claiming for twenty one instead of twenty volunteers we get just that extra bit of funding.”

“Clever move.” Scott had finished his cake and was drinking tea. Virgil had shot him an incredulous look when he asked for it, but if there was one thing Scott remembered about this place, it was the herbal tea. Melissa knew how to brew a great drink...even if she had to threaten him and his father to try it the first time.

“Are you still using Jack Dunning?”

“Oh, yes, the man is brilliant. And he does all our work pro bono which saves us so much. Thank you for the recommendation.”

Scott was not going to mention one Gordon Tracy jumping up and down in front of him one afternoon several years ago. His aquanaut brother had been apoplectic and at the end of a very sharp conversation, Scott had been more than willing to call in their lawyers to act on behalf of the DOC Kermadec Expedition. The fishery megacorporation challenging the validity of the Sanctuary hadn’t known what hit them.

And if Scott wanted Jack to send him all the bills, that was his prerogative. Melissa didn’t have to know everything.

“So how is Virgil?” It was a quiet question as she picked up her own cup of tea.

He eyed her a moment. He was well aware of her attraction to his brother. Gordon had made a point of stirring Virgil until his quiet brother had clapped him around the ears.

“He’s recovering. I’ll be happier when he is home.”

She eyed him as if considering whether she should breach a topic or not. Something flickered in her eyes. “How goes Tracy Island? Is the regrowth flourishing as we hoped?”

He thought back at the tracts of native vegetation his father had planted all those years ago, mostly on the other side of the island, though some covered scars from the IR excavations.The pōhutukawa and palm trees seemed to be okay, but his mind was usually on other things when he ran past them.

He shook his head. “To be honest, I don’t know. You could ask Gordon?”

She peered closer at him. “Are you okay?”

He straightened where he sat. “I’m good.” He stretched. “Got any recommendations for a good place to run? Need to stretch my legs.”

She swallowed the last of her drink. “I can show you.”

“No need, just point me in the right direction and I’ll find my way.”

A snort. “You’re not on Tracy Island, Commander. No visitors go unaccompanied on Raoul, remember. You’ve got a choice between me and Sam.” A smirk. “And you won’t get much distance out of him unless you prefer swimming.”

Internally he groaned. He had been looking forward to time alone.

“I can show you around the crater rim. You’ll get a great workout.”

The thought of finding the physical relief was just too tempting. The hike up the hill had been a teaser and he wanted more. He sculled the last of his tea. “Fine. Lead the way.” He hoped she could keep up.

Her smile was a challenge in itself. “I’ll go grab my running gear. Meet you out front in ten.”

“FAB.”

-o-o-o-

Gordon watched as Scott stood up, brushed past Virgil and said something, before following Mel out the door.

“Do you think Virgil would be willing to talk about his experience?”

Gordon glanced at Sam and then eyed his brother. His linen shirt was tight across his shoulders as the man hunched over his coffee. “I don’t know.”

“Can you ask?” Sam was all eagerness. It was understandable. The surfer had made cetaceans his life’s work and this was a fantastic opportunity.

A sucked in breath. “Leave it with me, I’ll see what I can do.”

-o-o-o-

John, drink in hand, had taken the opportunity to find himself a vantage point on the cliff. The island was very quiet, even quieter than Tracy Island was at times and considerably bigger.

He appreciated the solitude.

Of course, the boat hadn’t exactly been loud or even crowded. He truly enjoyed the time with his brothers. But it was nice to step away, even if only for a little time.

He parked himself in the long grass at the edge of the bluff and stared out into the blue of the Pacific.

An idle thought.

“Eos?”

“Hello, John.”

“Hello, Eos. Status?”

“All emergency calls are being fielded by the appropriate agencies. Mr Lemaire has entombed himself in ice at the South Pole in an attempt to locate Santa Claus. I have advised the GDF. He is safe and secure for the moment.”

John’s thoughts locked up for a second. “The South Pole? Santa Claus lives in the North Pole.”

“Ignoring the fact that Santa Claus is a myth, Mr Lemaire claimed that ‘the North Pole is an ocean and only an idiot would build a house on an ice floe that melts every summer, therefore he must be hidden at the South Pole.’ He planned to be the first human to interview the father of Christmas and used a specialised drilling machine to dig into the ice...which promptly collapsed on him twenty metres down.”

John sighed. “You are sure he is safe?”

“Colonel Casey has sent a specialist team. He and his wife have enough survival supplies to make it through to New Years if necessary.”

“Monitor the situation. Call us in only if there is no alternative.” A trip to the South Pole was something they did not need.

“FAB, John.”

“And how are you?”

“I am functioning well.”

“Do you have any results from the problem I set you?”

“I have analysed three thousand two hundred and twenty-three recordings of humpback whale communications. Unfortunately, many of the recordings are missing the lower frequencies as the equipment used was not sufficient. I do have some translation possibilities, however I am still calculating multiple variables and am hesitant to postulate a theory.”

He had expected as much. She had only been working on it for a few hours. “Are you enjoying the work?” To be honest, he wasn’t expecting a positive result. It did, however, keep a bored AI occupied.

“It is very interesting. Virgil’s response shows no pattern relative to the language he was attempting to respond to, yet he received a result.”

“I suspect there is an element of synergy in the language that enables it to become more than a sum of its parts. Perhaps that is what Virgil was able to tap into.”

“I’m not sure what you mean, John.”

John sucked in a breath. “You are a computer program, yet you are more than lines of code, you are a person. Correct?”

“Yes.”

“Perhaps this language is a step beyond simple complexity. Perhaps the elements combined create a new level of communication? One that is not entirely on the conscious level.”

His daughter was silent for a moment. “How does interpretation differ between the human conscious and subconscious? The literature claims a lack of cognitive recognition of events created or observed subconsciously. How could Virgil create something he is not aware of?”

“There is much we do not yet understand. The human subconscious is well known for gathering multiple observed factors and combining them into instinct, all without conscious control. Perhaps you should explore that region of research?” Come to think of it, Virgil’s instincts in the field were very sharp. There were multiple examples of his brother acting against orders and ultimately saving lives that otherwise would have been lost, including those of his brothers.

“I will, John, thank you.”

“You are welcome.” His lips curled into a smile. “Enjoy yourself.”

-o-o-o-

It was amazing to finally get his feet moving.

Scott’s shoes pounded volcanic dust and rock so familiar it was almost as if he was home. A regular thud-thud-thud, the sea breeze, the rock, the vegetation...energy flowed through him and was used, muscles firing, skin tingling in the afternoon air. God, it was so good to get out.

Melissa said nothing to him beyond directing which path to take. She had removed her DOC uniform, reducing her clothing to a tight crop top, shorts and running shoes, and if he was honest, he had to admit he was appreciating the view.

The woman was all slim muscle. Tight waist, lightly browned skin. Her pale hair bounced behind her in a hastily tied ponytail and he found himself following it as she leapt from path to rock and over logs.

She had no trouble keeping up. In fact, it was more the other way around. He had to work to keep up with her, despite the difference in stride. She knew exactly where she was going and she was offering no handicap.

They pushed up a steep incline for some time. She had taken them off the main track and deep into the forest. Birds sung all around and the wind rustled through the blossoming trees. The pōhutukawa were in their brilliant crimson Christmas flowers, festooning the island as if to decorate for the season.

Grandma loved the pōhutukawa trees on Tracy Island and was in fact the only reason he knew the name of the plant. She cut flowers every year for their Christmas table to acknowledge the beautiful piece of land they lived on.

They reminded him of home.

This whole island reminded him of home.

Melissa ran around a particularly large tree and he followed only to come to a screeching halt as the path suddenly changed direction. A huge crater appeared in front of him.

Melissa was running on the spot. She nodded down at the lake at the bottom of the volcanic bowl. “Blue Lake.”

And it was.

A stunning, almost unnatural cobalt blue. He stared down at it, panting from his exertions. His thin grey tank top clung to his sweaty body.

She grinned at him before darting off along the crater rim.

Hmmm. An indrawn breath and he took off after her.

The crater wasn’t massive on a volcanic scale, but it was impressive nonetheless. The late afternoon sun shadowed the mountain, emphasising the extremes of the landscape.

“The far lake is Green Lake.” Melissa had stopped and was running on the spot again. A fine sheen of perspiration glistened on her skin.

He did know the geography, he had flown over the island often enough, but this perspective was considerably different. “It’s beautiful.” Not unlike its caretaker.

The random thought shook him out of contemplation and forced himself to look out at the smaller green lake in the distance.

Where the hell had that come from? A sideways glance in her direction and he found her gaze caught on the spectacle before them, her love for the island obvious.

Well, he had to admit that he did have his own island love. Just not this island.

“C’mon, slow poke, let’s up the pace.” And she darted off into the forest again.

Really?

Thighs pumping, he followed her under the trees, down the slope a little before he found himself climbing again.

She called back to him from several metres in front. “Got a full body workout coming up. I hope you’re up to it.” Her grin bounced down the mountain and off his head.

She was challenging him? Well, he had been known to hang off rocket ships and climb vertical cliff faces. Bring it on.

She did.

The path dissolved. There was no other real word for it. It became a mass of black jagged volcanic rocks, interspersed with tree regrowth.

“This was dumped here last time Virgil yanked us off the Island.” Her words were interspersed with harsh breathing as she clambered over the obstacle. As he climbed the crater once again came into view and the scar in the side of the mountain became clear.

Wow.

There was a swath of dead forest dotted with regrowth. He remembered Virgil’s report. The footage had involved billowing smoke and steam, but his brother had confined most of his readings to the encampment, his concern more for the lives endangered than any geological happenings. Brains had taken readings and read GeoNet’s reports as he did for any activity on the Kermadec Ridge, but he had reported it small and unremarkable.

Looked far more remarkable in person.

Melissa reached the top of the pile of rock and finally stopped.

He was grateful. The woman knew how to push it. He clambered up the last few and stood next to her.

The view was magnificent.

“She risks our lives, but I have to say she is beautiful.” Her love was there again, in her eyes. It was a similar expression to what he saw on Gordon’s face when he stared out across the ocean.

“You love this island, don’t you.” It wasn’t a question.

She turned to stare at him and he realised that her eyes were a startling multicoloured grey. “I love this place. It’s mountains, its plants, its ocean, its everything. It is one of the truly saved places on our planet. There aren’t many left.” She shrugged. “I’m just lucky to be able to experience it and contribute my little bit of help.”

He snorted. “Even I know what you are doing is anything but little. You’ve expanded the Sanctuary by hundreds of kilometres since you’ve been here.”

Her gaze turned back to him. “You’ve been reading up on me?”

Half a grin. “I like to know who I am dealing with.”

She arched an eyebrow. “And what did you find, Commander?”

His smile spread. “Someone remarkable.”

-o-o-o-

Virgil hid for the rest of the afternoon. He slunk away to the hostel, found himself a bed and curled up. At some point, he heard a brother open the door to the communal room and another brother, Alan maybe, mutter something, but they went away and he was glad for it.

The wood of the building creaked in the sun and birds squawked almost continually, but despite, or perhaps because of the soundscape, he fell into a much better sleep than he had had the entire week. Deep and complete.

The sun was heading towards the horizon when he woke, yellowing rays cutting across the hostel windows, turning the white paintwork gold.

Gordon was in the room, fossicking through a bag. “G’don?” He blinked and screwed up his face.

“Hey, Virg! Sorry, did I wake you?”

“No. Don’t think so?”

“How are you feeling?”

Virgil rolled over and pushed himself up, sitting on the side of the bed. He rubbed his hands over his face. “Okay, I guess.”

His brother snorted. “I’ll ask you again in half an hour after coffee and brain activation.”

The grunt he sent in the aquanaut’s direction only proved his point.

“Sam is very interested in what you did today.”

Crap. Another grunt.

That earned him a querying look. Virgil had no idea what his brother expected. If a simple question about how he was feeling was a stumbler, the complex concepts involving what had happened earlier in the day were a complete brain frier.

“You up for dinner?” Gordon was suddenly sitting on the bed next to him. When had he moved? “Sam’s dragged out the barbecue. Claims he wants to test the theory of ‘throwing a prawn on the barbie’. Apparently, as an Australian he’s never cooked a shrimp on a barbecue before.” As if to punctuate the statement, the smell of cooking meat wafted in through the window.

Virgil stared at his brother.

“They had to import the shrimp for Christmas.”

The staring continued.

“They’re throwing a party because we’re here and using their Christmas supplies to do it...why the hell are you staring at me like that?”

Virgil didn’t answer him. He just wrapped an arm around him and hugged Gordon to his side.

His brother didn’t resist, but did look at him strangely. “You okay?”

“I’m good.”

Gordon didn’t say anything further and for a moment they sat there together.

Virgil’s stomach rumbled.

Gordon snorted. “C’mon, bro, food awaits.” He slipped Virgil’s hold and, turning around, offered him a hand up.

Without another word, Virgil took it and stood up beside his brother, his hand landing on his shoulder and squeezing.

That earned him another questioning look, but he ignored it.

The grassed central area of the compound had been transformed both by the golden sunlight and the lights strung between the trees. Sam was standing in front of a sizzling barbecue, someone Virgil didn’t know, laughing and holding him close. Alan and John were deep in discussion with another new person. All three of them had drinks in hand. John’s hair flickered about as if it was on fire, the sun catching it as the breeze tossed it around. And Scott...

Virgil stared.

Scott was laughing his ass off.

With Melissa Fisher.

The two of them sat beside each other in a couple of deck chairs. His brother appearing more relaxed than Virgil had seen him in a long time.

“What happened?” It came out without thought.

“They went for a run. Came back friendly as can be. I think Scott may have fallen for her charms.”

Charms? The woman was a handful. Virgil wasn’t afraid to admit he found her a challenge. Her gratitude the last time he had airlifted her and her squad of staff and volunteers off Raoul had been...exuberant.

If Kayo hadn’t escorted her out of his cockpit, he wasn’t sure what he would have done. As it was, Gordon had ribbed him until he cracked and thwapped him one.

But Scott seemed almost enthusiastic. Despite himself, Virgil broke into a grin.

Gordon echoed it. “Yeah, it’s great to finally see him relaxing.”

Quiet. “Yes. Yes, it is.”

Gordon grabbed his arm and nudged him in the direction of a table piled with food and drink. “Let’s get you fuelled up so I can introduce you to Liam and Elspeth.”

Coffee, as always, solved a lot of problems and, hugging his mug like the lifeline it was, Virgil was introduced to Sam’s husband.

Liam turned out to be a meteorologist. Raoul was not only important as a wildlife sanctuary, but also supported this corner of the Pacific’s meteorological station, providing atmospheric readings crucial to both weather and climate studies.

Having no shortage of interest in weather conditions, both as a pilot and a rescue operative who often found himself in the extremes of all kinds of those conditions, Virgil fell into in a very interesting discussion regarding navigating tropical cyclones.

In appearance, Liam was taller than Sam, blond and much more reserved than his husband. Hell, it was almost like someone had grabbed John and Gordon, thrown their physical characteristics in a blender and then assembled Liam and Sam. Liam even had a similar flick of blond hair on his forehead that John had in his red hair.

Almost in contrast, where Liam was pale and tall, Elspeth was dark and petite. Long plaited black hair hung to her waist, her features in shades of sepia. The artist in him was quite drawn to her.

But not as much as his two starbound brothers, because Elspeth was an astronomer. She and Liam had been on the other side of the island earlier in the day collecting readings from the observatory. Something about a rogue object passing through the Solar System. Virgil lost the discussion at some point between the Oort cloud and the orbit of Jupiter. He kept getting distracted by Scott laughing.

Virgil hadn’t heard his brother laugh so freely in a long time. Melissa appeared to be enjoying herself. It was as if a bubble had surrounded them and cut them off from everyone else. Stuck in their own happy little world.

An irrational spark of envy and the inevitable smirk at his brother deploying his well played charms were all completely smothered by the happiness he felt seeing Scott finally relaxing and enjoying himself.

As the evening became night, Virgil continued to hover on the edges of conversation, more Gordon, Sam and Liam than John, Alan and Elspeth. The latter group’s discussion had dissolved into equations and while Virgil loved a good piece of math like any engineer, theoreticals were more than he was willing to think about right at the moment.

The food was delicious and he complimented Sam thoroughly. Liam smiled and waxed poetic about some of the meals his husband had cooked in the past. Sam blushed appropriately red on several occasions, setting Gordon off into ribbing the poor man.

A thumb in Gordon’s direction. “Ignore him, he’s just jealous. There are days on end where we don’t get time to cook a decent meal.”

“You don’t have a cook?” Sam was frowning.

“We have Grandma.” Gordon was smiling ruefully.

“She’s a good cook?”

Virgil cut in. “Grandma is the backbone of International Rescue.”

“Your grandmother works with you?”

“Often, yes.”

“A truly family business.”

“Yes, it is.”

The conversation fell quiet a moment and Virgil took a swig of the beer in his hand.

“So, how did you become a cetacean biologist?”

Sam’s eyes widened. “Oh, um, had an encounter, fell in love, now devoted to them forever.”

Liam snorted. “He asked about you and whales, not for our love story.”

His husband shrugged. “Pretty much the same story really. Found myself in dire straits off Waitpinga Beach while surfing, dolphin saved me.”

Gordon had obviously heard the story before. He grinned. “For a surfer, you really are crap at surfing.”

“It’s all about the image, Gordo. You know that.” But Sam was grinning as much as Gordon. “But on a more serious note,” and the grin turned into a mock glare at Virgil’s brother, “she saved my life. It was a big, life changing moment. Been saving the whales ever since.”

“I can understand that.” All the Tracys could understand that.

Sam sparked up, all eagerness and bright eyes. “So, you spoke to a whale today?”

-o-o-o-

End Day Three, Part Four

[theliberaltony]

via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.

sarahf (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): This is the first debate of 2020 and the last debate before the voting starts in Iowa in less than three weeks. There are six candidates (the smallest debate stage yet), and we’ve finally published our primary forecast (!!!), which shows the field (especially in Iowa) is pretty wide open.

So how are you thinking about tonight’s debate? Do you think it has the potential to really shake things up?

clare.malone (Clare Malone, senior political writer): I think the big story on Monday — and potentially the big story of the debate — is what’s going on with the rivalry between Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. First, there is the Sanders campaign’s talking points that reportedly had volunteers paint Warren as “the candidate of the elite.” And then a story leaked on Monday that’s pretty damn unflattering to Sanders, claiming he told Warren he didn’t think a woman could win the presidency. So … I would say there’s some jostling on the progressive end of the spectrum that could play out tonight!

ameliatd (Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux, senior writer): Definitely. One thing I’ll be watching for is whether some of the tacit alliances we’ve seen between the candidates start to break down. That story really did not reflect well on Sanders. On the other hand, it’s generally risky for women to go on the offensive in debates like these, so it might be a little tricky for Warren to turn that to her advantage.

natesilver (Nate Silver, editor in chief): Yeah, it seems like the theme of this debate is somewhat inevitably going to be SANDERS-WARREN BATTLE. Unless they really do decide to turn the other cheek.

clare.malone: I mean, I do think the Warren people have been savvier about dropping opposition research like this.

natesilver: That’s a pretty serious oppo drop.

clare.malone: Sanders’s defense is generally “the mainstream media is stirring up conflict.”

Which is true, partially, in the sense that the media is the one publishing this stuff, but there are, indeed, real tensions between those two campaigns!

natesilver: Like, 95 percent of these oppo drops are dumb as fuck, concerning things that ordinarily voters couldn’t possibly care about. But this would be a big deal if it’s somehow confirmed or if Warren repeats the accusation herself.

sarahf: Yeah, it’s amazing how fast the news cycle moves, I had thought the situation with Iran would be the dominant thread of conversation tonight, but agree that between the Selzer & Co. Iowa poll that put Sanders in first in Iowa, and now the breakdown of Warren and Sanders’s truce to not attack each other, that will be a big part of tonight’s debate. And going in, it doesn’t seem great for Sanders …

ameliatd: Warren could really benefit from getting some more support from lefty Democrats who might be undecided or mostly seem to be sticking with Sanders. But if this accusation comes off as a cheap shot from Warren, I think that could hurt her. Or at least, not endear her further to those on the left.

clare.malone: Sanders’s support is pretty sticky, though, so it’s hard for me to see her winning over any of his supporters. Honestly, at this point, I think she has to worry about losing her supporters to Sanders or Pete Buttigieg — or even Joe Biden.

natesilver: Part of the dynamic is that Sanders hasn’t really been considered a front-runner. But now the media is covering him like one, even though it’s not really clear how much has actually changed in his candidacy. (If you look at the odds in our primary model — where we ran older forecasts retroactively before we launched — Sanders’s chances of winning the majority of pledged delegates have been pretty steady since November.)

sarahf: So let’s say tonight is the Sanders “wine cave” edition, where he’s at the center of attacks like Buttigieg was in the December debate. That debate seemed to have actually dampened some enthusiasm for Buttigieg — for instance, he fell pretty substantially in that Selzer poll from where he was in November. Do we see Sanders as the candidate tonight who has the most at stake? What about Biden? He is after all, the front-runner in our model even if he’s not the clear favorite to win; i.e., he’s still an underdog relative to the rest of the field.

natesilver: So on the one hand, I agree that Sanders’s support is likely to be pretty sticky, as Clare puts it. There’s evidence from polls that his supporters are the most firmly committed to any one candidate. But on the other hand, he hasn’t really gotten the same front-runner-type scrutiny that Warren DID get at some points this fall. So whether he holds up, once that level of scrutiny is applied, is very much up in the air.

ameliatd: And it’s not a low-stakes debate for Warren either, because she’s been actively trying to revitalize her campaign. When I was in Iowa on a reporting trip a few weeks ago, she was kind of trying to hit the “reset” button by hammering her core message on corruption and the economy. And of course, she’s now campaigning with Julián Castro.

clare.malone: I mean, we’ll just have to wait and see what the attacks are. I’m not entirely sure Warren, for instance, would go for “Bernie is sexist” on stage. That just doesn’t seem like her temperament. I would expect more of an attack on Sanders from Warren to be like, “his plans are implausible and therefore, bad for the general election.” But then again, he could also push back (as he’s been doing on the campaign trail), saying that HE is actually the most electable in a general. And there’s some truth to it, especially in comparison to Warren. Our polling with Ipsos shows the same thing — voters generally rate Sanders next after Biden in terms of his ability to defeat Trump.

Also, Sanders benefits from everyone kinda knowing what his thing is — socialism, baby! — which takes some of the sting out of “he’s too far out there!!” attacks. The brand is strong, as the kids say.

sarahf: Right, but to Amelia’s point, tonight could be a big night for Warren. She was only 3 points behind Sanders in that Selzer poll, which is a good sign for her considering her national numbers had dipped in late November and through December. And you can already see the slightest of upticks already in our national polling average:

geoffrey.skelley (Geoffrey Skelley, elections analyst): Yeah, that Selzer poll had Sanders in the lead in Iowa as we’ve discussed, but then that Monmouth poll out on Monday showed Biden in the lead with 24 percent in Iowa and Sanders in second at 18 percent, suggesting that Iowa is very wide open and very difficult to predict.

clare.malone: Like the state itself!

sarahf: Right, Biden is either in first or fourth, depending on which poll you look at.

geoffrey.skelley: So far, the debates haven’t seemed to have affected the polls all that much, at least not since Sen. Kamala Harris’s surge after the June debate.

The first Democratic debate shifted polls the most

Average change* in national polls and the candidates who moved the most after the first four Democratic primary debates

Debate Avg. Change Biggest gainer Biggest loser June 26-27 +/- 2.4 Harris +8.3 Biden -6.5 July 30-31 0.9 Warren +3.0 Harris -3.0 Sept. 12 1.1 Warren +4.4 Sanders -2.0 Oct. 15 1.0 Buttigieg +1.6 Warren -3.5

*Average change in national polls evaluates the average absolute change in polling averages before and after each debate across the 10 candidates with the highest post-debate polling average. Polling averages were calculated using national polls conducted during the two weeks before and two weeks after each debate.

Source: Polls

Although I haven’t run the numbers the same way for the November and December debates, one look at the polls suggests there wasn’t a dramatic shakeup after those events, either. Now, tonight’s debate could be different since there are fewer candidates and voting is right around the corner. But then again, maybe not.

clare.malone: My spidey sense is that this debate will matter, especially to Iowans. These people are tuned in to a deranged degree!

natesilver: And polls also find that a high proportion of Iowans haven’t yet made their final decision.

clare.malone: Right.

sarahf: So if many Iowans haven’t made their final decision … how many do you think are actively considering Amy Klobuchar or Tom Steyer?

Klobuchar didn’t do as well in that Selzer poll as I thought she might, given how respondents in our poll with Ipsos rated her December debate performance. Granted, a lot of time has passed since Dec. 19, but there also haven’t been that many polls.

And then Steyer had a kind of weird surge in South Carolina and Nevada? It’s too soon to really make sense of what’s happening there (although he has spent a ton of money on TV ads).

natesilver: Klobuchar is actually in a pretty weird place. She’s at 6.6 percent in our Iowa polling average, but usually candidates either rise up to at least ~15 percent in Iowa — which matters, given how the caucus process itself works — or fall back into the low single digits.

clare.malone: The Steyer stuff is interesting in the sense that yes, he’s doing well in polls, probably because of advertising in those two states that have fewer ads in general than, say, Iowa or New Hampshire. But other candidates are going to start to get into that media-market scrum. Let’s see how much those numbers stick for him.

What I will say, though, is that the ads themselves cannily talk about the economy, not impeachment or climate change, subjects with which Steyer is more closely associated.

ameliatd: Steyer has been kind of defensive, too, about the fact that he made the debate at all — the implication being that he’s only there because he spent a ton of money on ads. That makes him a potential target, particularly for someone like Sanders or Warren. But attacking him also runs the risk of making him look like a more serious threat, so it’s somewhat complicated.

clare.malone: I think he won’t really be a big factor, tbh.

natesilver: I just don’t think Steyer is very interesting.

ameliatd: Right, maybe the other candidates won’t think it’s worth their time to question why he’s even there.

natesilver: So long as he’s at 3 percent in Iowa and New Hampshire, I don’t really care where he is in Nevada and South Carolina.

clare.malone: I mean, I don’t think he’s half bad in debates! I just think the scrum will go a little more the Sanders/Warren and the Buttigieg/Klobuchar.

perry (Perry Bacon Jr., senior writer): We touched on this a bit earlier, but Biden is currently winning the race for the nomination. And I think, as a result, you are seeing blunter criticism of him. Buttigieg and Sanders have both taken Biden to task for his vote for the Iraq War, and Sanders has also criticized Biden’s record on issues of racial justice.

I’m not sure his rivals will attack Biden on Tuesday, but that’s the thing I’m watching most closely: Does anyone decide this is the last real chance to take on the person mostly likely to win? I have been confused by how much Warren’s allies are attacking Buttigieg, and now it seems like Warren is attacking Sanders — but Biden is winning!

It feels like 2016 a bit — Christie attacking Rubio instead of Trump — what is the point?

natesilver: If somehow Biden gets through the debate, and all the focus is on Sanders vs. Warren, Buttigieg, etc. — that seems like a very fortunate outcome for the former vice president.

ameliatd: Yes, Biden clearly benefited from being able to float above the fray in the December debate. And the other candidates mostly let him do that, which was a little weird.

natesilver: Biden does have a tendency to cause trouble for himself, of course.

It’s also probably worth noting that his relatively smooth debate in December has been followed up by quite a few endorsements, etc. Party elites seem to have fewer concerns than they once did about his steadiness as a candidate.

perry: Harris was kind of limited in taking on Biden, in my view, since she will be high on the VP list. But I don’t think Biden is going to pick Buttigieg, Warren or Sanders for VP, so they have very little incentive to hold back. Buttigieg, in particular, has been very good at attacking people — it would be interesting to see if one was the one to push the Iraq issue, because Biden seems, at times, unwilling to concede he voted for the war.

clare.malone: Yeah, I gotta say, that whole thing is really weird.

John Kerry, a Biden surrogate, was trying to say that other candidates were misrepresenting his record, but it’s clear as day that Biden voted for the Iraq War. If you want to complicate the narrative and say it was a mistake, and you were misled — fine. But that whole talking point is weak sauce, in my opinion.

sarahf: OK, this is our last debate before the voting starts in Iowa, and as I said at the outset of the chat — it’s pretty much a four-way race with Biden, Sanders, Warren and Buttigieg all projected to get some delegates. Biden is in the lead in our forecast, but as we’ve said in our chat, a lot of Iowans are still on the fence. What will you be keeping a close eye on tonight to see if it moves the needle at all?

perry: Biden seems poised to win the nomination — perhaps even Iowa. I’ll be watching to see whether any of the other top three really take him on — and if they do, on what issues?

ameliatd: I will be interested to see, as Perry mentioned, if Biden’s Iraq war vote — and his strange unwillingness to admit to it — gets turned against him, or if he can turn the general foreign policy conversation/discussion of what’s happening with Iran in his favor. Because in general, that’s an issue where he has a clear advantage over the other candidates.

clare.malone: I mean, it’s trite, but I’ll be curious to see what Warren and Sanders do on stage, given the conflict they’ve had. And I’ll be curious to see if Sanders, in particular, challenges Biden on a general-election electability front.

natesilver: Repeating myself a bit, but it feels to me like Sanders is liable to play a central role in this debate with perceptions that he’s now a front-runner, and those sorts of debates tend to be pretty high stakes.

ameliatd: Basically, tonight comes down to who’s taking the gloves off, and who are they going after?

[patriotsnet]

Who Is Running For President For Republicans

New Post has been published on https://www.patriotsnet.com/who-is-running-for-president-for-republicans/

Who Is Running For President For Republicans

List Of Republicans Who Opposed The Donald Trump 2016 Presidential Campaign

2020 Election – 5 Republicans Who Might Run For President (Why Donald Trump will be the GOP Nominee)

This article is part of a series about

e

This is a list of Republicans and conservatives who announced their opposition to the election of Donald Trump, the 2016 Republican Party nominee and eventual winner of the election, as the President of the United States. It also includes former Republicans who left the party due to their opposition to Trump and as well as Republicans who endorsed a different candidate. It includes Republican presidential primary election candidates that announced opposition to Trump as the nominee. Some of the Republicans on this list threw their support to Trump after he won the presidential election, while many of them continue to oppose Trump. Offices listed are those held at the time of the 2016 election.

Early March 201: Between Super Tuesdays

After Super Tuesday voting, but before winner-take-all voting was to begin, nine states, two territories and Washington, D.C. held their primaries and caucuses. During this period, 377 delegates were at stake. On March 3, 2016, the day before Carson dropped out of the race, Romney criticized Trump in a heavily publicized speech. Later that day, there was another GOP debate, which again featured Trump, Cruz, Rubio and Kasich. Carson did not participate in the debate, as he announced the suspension of his campaign the next day, narrowing the field to four; he subsequently endorsed Trump on March 10, 2016, the day after Fiorina endorsed Cruz. Meanwhile, as the prospect of a Trump nomination became more imminent, establishment Republicans pressured Romney or House Speaker Paul Ryan to enter the race; Romney had already decided not to enter the race on January 30, 2015, while Ryan announced he would not enter on April 13, 2016.

In the Virgin Islands caucuses on March 10, a slate composed wholly of uncommitted delegates was initially elected. However, the entire slate was later disqualified by the territorial party and was replaced by the elected alternates two uncommitted, two for Rubio and one each for Cruz and Trump. The dispute later went to court. Also on March 10, there was a debate in Florida between the four surviving candidates, which was conducted in a more civil tone than prior debates.

March 512 results Candidate

Delegates won:1

I Made A Decision To Live My Life In Service

Brock Pierce is a former child actor who appeared in the Mighty Ducks franchise and starred as the presidents son in the 1996 comedy First Kid. But thanks to his second career as a tech entrepreneur, hes also probably a crypto currency billionaire.

Why is he running for president? Partly because he is deeply concerned by the state of the country.

I think that we lack a real vision for the future I mean, what kind of world do we want to live in, in the year 2030? What is the plan? Where are we trying to get to, you know? You have to aim for something. And I see mostly just a lot of mud being thrown around, not a lot of people putting forth game-changing ideas. Its getting scary. And I have a view of what to do.

For the last four years, Mr Pierce has focused on philanthropic work in Puerto Rico, where his foundation recently raised a million dollars for PPE to give to first responders.

Asked what Americas priorities should be for the next four years, he suggests the country stops pursuing growth for growths sake, and measures its success by how well life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness are upheld.

I have many liberal tendencies, just like I have conservative tendencies, Mr Pierce says. And I think its time we take a collective breath and a brave step into the future, because all of these ideologies have something to teach us.

And if he doesnt pull it off? Mr Pierce says he has offers.

Recommended Reading: Congress Denies Funding For Benghazi

Former Us Ambassador To The United Nations Nikki Haley

Haley, 49, stands out in the potential pool of 2024 Republican candidates by her resume. She has experience as an executive as the former governor of South Carolina and foreign policy experience from her time as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.

Haley was a member of the Republican Partys 2010 tea party class. A former South Carolina state representative, her long shot gubernatorial campaign saw its fortunes improve after she was endorsed by Sarah Palin. Haley rocketed from fourth to first just days after the endorsement, and she went on to clinch the nomination and become her states first female and first Indian-American governor.

As governor, she signed a bill removing the Confederate flag from the state Capitol following the white supremacist attack at the Emanuel African Methodist Church in Charleston. She left office in 2017 to join the Trump administration as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, and Quinnipiac poll found she was at one point the most popular member of Trumps foreign policy team.

I think that shes done a pretty masterful job in filling out her resume, said Robert Oldendick, a professor and director of graduate studies at the University of South Carolinas department of political science.

Haley criticized Trump following the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol by his supporters, saying she was disgusted by his conduct. Oldendick said he thought her pretty pointed criticism of the president will potentially cause some problems.

How Biden Won: Ramping Up The Base And Expanding Margins In The Suburbs

It brings the number of states Biden flipped from Trumps 2016 column to five, including Arizona, which last voted Democratic in a presidential race when it backed Clinton in 1996.

Biden also flipped Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, three key northern industrial states that ultimately delivered the White House to Trump four years ago. Biden also won a single electoral vote in Nebraskas 2nd Congressional District, which last voted Democratic for former President Barack Obama in 2008.

Electors from each state and the District of Columbia are expected to vote on Dec. 14. The new Congress will then count the votes and certify Bidens victory on Jan. 6, two weeks before the inauguration.

But Georgias political activity is far from over. The state will hold two runoff elections on Jan. 5 for both its U.S. Senate seats, which are currently held by Republicans.

Recommended Reading: Secret Service Lapel Pin Meaning

The Long Race For The 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination Begins

WEST DES MOINES, Iowa In the past week alone, Nikki Haley regaled activists in Iowa, Mike Pence courted donors in California and Donald Trump returned to the rally stage, teasing a third campaign for the White House.

The midterms are more than a year away, and there are 1,225 days until the next presidential election. But Republicans eyeing a White House run are wasting no time in jockeying for a strong position in what could emerge as an extremely crowded field of contenders.

The politicking will only intensify in the coming weeks, particularly in Iowa, home to the nations leadoff presidential caucuses and a state where conservative evangelicals play a significant role in steering the direction of the GOP. Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas is slated to visit on Tuesday, and others, including Pence, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo are expected to appear in July.

The flurry of activity is a sign that there is no clear frontrunner to lead the GOP if Trump opts against a 2024 campaign.

It definitely feels early, but it doesnt feel like its a bad idea based on the situation, said Mike DuHaime, a longtime Republican strategist. The party has changed, the voters are changing and I think the process has changed. And I think many of the candidates have realized that.

We won the election twice, he said. And its possible well have to win it a third time.

As for Trump?

Sen Marco Rubio Of Florida

Like Cruz, Rubio would enter the 2024 presidential race with heightened name ID and experience from his 2016 run. One of Rubios biggest challenges, though, could be his fellow Floridians. If DeSantis and fellow Sen. Rick Scott run, there could be just one ticket out of Florida, a Republican strategist said.

Rubio, 49, is married to Jeanette Dousdebes and they have four children. He graduated from the University of Florida and University of Miami School of Law and was speaker of the Florida House of Representatives before running for U.S. Senate in 2010.

You May Like: Top Republicans In Congress

Confidence Interval: Republicans Will Win Back Congress In 2022

natesilver: Good pick.

nrakich: Yeah, Pence has led almost every 2024 poll so far that hasnt included Trump. It goes back to what I said earlier about name recognition a lot of the time, the early front-runner wins and you dont have to overthink it.;;

geoffrey.skelley: Pence was my No. 2 pick for these reasons. Plus, vice presidents who run for the presidency have a pretty good history of winning nominations! Think of Joe Biden, Al Gore, George H.W. Bush, Walter Mondale. As Nathaniel wrote back in 2019, its often been a successful stepping stone to the presidency.

alex: Not bad, Sarah! But to play devils advocate: If Trump doesnt run, but the GOP is still the party of Trump in 2022 or 2024, would someone who didnt overturn the election go far?

sarah: Excellent point, Alex, which brings me to my second pick. Pence isnt the most charismatic, and as has been pointed out, the idea that the GOP moves in a more moderate direction might not be the direction the party is interested in heading in. And while I know some like Geoffrey are convinced that Trump is gonna pull a Cleveland and run again as I said up top, I dont buy it I think Republicans are going to be OK with someone else at the top of the ticket as long as they stick to Trumps agenda. And if Im right, who better than Trumps eldest son, the heir apparent?

Its grievance politics 2.0 that maybe has the potential to win back Republicans in the suburbs.

geoffrey.skelley: Oh man. DJTJ?

Other Candidates Who Filed To Run For President In 2024 But Are Not Currently In The Race

Republican Lawmakers Are Terrified Of Trump Running For President Again

Other than Democrats and Republicans there are other Third Party candidates and Independent candidates who will seek their name on the ballot in 2024. While a Third Party or Independent candidate has never won the general election it does not detour their efforts to win the Presidency. Below is a list of registered candidates for each additional party.

Also Check: How Many Democratic Presidents Have Republicans Tried To Impeach

Trumpworld Is Already Weighing Veeps For 2024 Hint: It Aint Pence

The former president is keeping tabs on the field and hes all but decided to ditch the guy he ran with last time.

07/23/2021 04:30 AM EDT

Link Copied

Donald Trump and his advisers are convinced that if he runs again for president in 2024, the Republican nomination will be his. Their confidence is so supreme that they view almost all of the emerging field not as competition but as possible vice presidential picks.

No formal vetting process is in place, and there is no expectation that Trump, should he run, will do so unopposed in a Republican primary. But allies of the former president are already keeping tabs on how GOP officials with presidential ambitions are addressing Trump himself and the legitimacy of Joe Bidens election.

You cant wait to run for president, said one Trump adviser. But those doing it now look like theyre dancing on the grave and the political bodys still warm.

As things stand now, Trump is extremely unlikely to run again with former Vice President Mike Pence as his number two, advisers say. Some Trump aides have also written off Pences political future, at least at the presidential level, privately arguing that he has failed to capture anything close to the same kind of enthusiasm as Trump. They point to anger among the most diehard Trump supporters over Pences decision to carry out his Constitutional duty in certifying Bidens election win.

Filed Under:

Trumpism Suffers Untold Damage In Its Collision With The Us Capitol

It is not an accident that Trump, following the advice of onetime adviser Steve Bannon, spoke approvingly of Jackson in 2016. When he entered the White House, Trump hung Jackson’s presidential portrait in the Oval Office overlooking the Resolute Desk.

It is not hard to imagine Trump invoking the spirit of Jackson’s 1828 campaign against the “corrupt bargain,” if he runs in 2024 against “the steal” .

Jackson, the ultimate outsider in his own time, makes a far better template for Trump than either Cleveland or Teddy Roosevelt â even though the latter two were New Yorkers like Trump.

Two New York governors, two decades apart

For now, Cleveland remains the only two-term president who had a time out between terms. When he first won in 1884, he was the first Democratic president elected in 28 years, and he won by the micro-margin of just 25,000 votes nationwide. He won because he carried New York, where he was governor at the time, adding its electoral votes to those of Democratic-leaning states in the South â which preferred a Democratic Yankee to a Republican Yankee.

Potent as it was, that language backfired by alienating enough Catholics in New York to elect Cleveland, himself a Protestant. His margin in his home state was a mere thousand votes, but it was enough to deliver a majority in the Electoral College.

A statue of Theodore Roosevelt in New York City. After leaving office, Roosevelt tried unsuccessfully to return to the White House.hide caption

toggle caption

Recommended Reading: Did Parties Switch Platforms

President Trump Your Legacy Is Secure Stop The ‘stolen Election’ Rhetoric

As many on the left have pointed out, the 2020 election was less a repudiation of Trump than a narrow loss for a man who proved just unpalatable enough for a critical sliver of his coalition.

Sean Spicer, a former Trump press secretary, told The Post his ex-boss would be an instant front-runner in a 2024 primary. He has a rock-solid base, I just dont think that there is anyone else who even comes close.

Teasing a potential run in 2024 would at the very least ensure Trump stays relevant and in the press for years to come.

If Trump himself passes on the opportunity, his two very political children Don Jr. and Ivanka Trump could also potentially pick up the mantle. Trump Jr. has long acted as an outside surrogate for his father online and in the press and connects strongly with his base. Ivanka, meanwhile, has years of administration experience under her belt as a White House adviser to her father.

Odds On Which Candidate Will Drop Out Next

When the early state primaries and caucuses are ongoing, sportsbooks usually post a fun political prop on the next candidate to drop out. These futures odds tend to focus on the side that is in opposition to the incumbent, but in 2024, we expect to see legitimate challengers on both sides of the aisle.

However, if Biden makes it through his first three years in good physical and mental health, there is a strong likelihood that the 2024 campaign could be a repeat of 2020: Biden vs. Trump. The heat of these campaigns is still a long way off, and anything can happen between now and then, but the odds are the highest and most profitable the further out bettors lay action on them.

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‘i Made A Decision To Live My Life In Service’

Brock Pierce is a former child actor who appeared in the Mighty Ducks franchise and starred as the president’s son in the 1996 comedy First Kid. But thanks to his second career as a tech entrepreneur, he’s also probably a crypto currency billionaire.

Why is he running for president? Partly because he is deeply concerned by the state of the country.

“I think that we lack a real vision for the future – I mean, what kind of world do we want to live in, in the year 2030? What is the plan? Where are we trying to get to, you know? You have to aim for something. And I see mostly just a lot of mud being thrown around, not a lot of people putting forth game-changing ideas. It’s getting scary. And I have a view of what to do.”

For the last four years, Mr Pierce has focused on philanthropic work in Puerto Rico, where his foundation recently raised a million dollars for PPE to give to first responders.

Asked what America’s priorities should be for the next four years, he suggests the country stops pursuing “growth for growth’s sake”, and measures its success by how well life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness are upheld.

“I have many liberal tendencies, just like I have conservative tendencies,” Mr Pierce says. “And I think it’s time we take a collective breath and a brave step into the future, because all of these ideologies have something to teach us.”

‘We don’t like either candidate’

And if he doesn’t pull it off? Mr Pierce says he has offers.

List Of United States Republican Party Presidential Tickets

This is a list of the candidates for the offices of President of the United States and Vice President of the United States of the Republican Party, either duly preselected and nominated, or the presumptive nominees of a future preselection and election. Opponents who received over one percent of the popular vote or ran an official campaign that received Electoral College votes are listed. Offices held prior to Election Day are included, and those held on Election Day have an italicized end date.

Recommended Reading: Have Democrats Tried To Impeach Every Republican President Since Eisenhower?

[patriotsnet]

Who Is Running For President For Republicans

New Post has been published on https://www.patriotsnet.com/who-is-running-for-president-for-republicans/

Who Is Running For President For Republicans

List Of Republicans Who Opposed The Donald Trump 2016 Presidential Campaign

2020 Election – 5 Republicans Who Might Run For President (Why Donald Trump will be the GOP Nominee)

This article is part of a series about

e

This is a list of Republicans and conservatives who announced their opposition to the election of Donald Trump, the 2016 Republican Party nominee and eventual winner of the election, as the President of the United States. It also includes former Republicans who left the party due to their opposition to Trump and as well as Republicans who endorsed a different candidate. It includes Republican presidential primary election candidates that announced opposition to Trump as the nominee. Some of the Republicans on this list threw their support to Trump after he won the presidential election, while many of them continue to oppose Trump. Offices listed are those held at the time of the 2016 election.

Early March 201: Between Super Tuesdays

After Super Tuesday voting, but before winner-take-all voting was to begin, nine states, two territories and Washington, D.C. held their primaries and caucuses. During this period, 377 delegates were at stake. On March 3, 2016, the day before Carson dropped out of the race, Romney criticized Trump in a heavily publicized speech. Later that day, there was another GOP debate, which again featured Trump, Cruz, Rubio and Kasich. Carson did not participate in the debate, as he announced the suspension of his campaign the next day, narrowing the field to four; he subsequently endorsed Trump on March 10, 2016, the day after Fiorina endorsed Cruz. Meanwhile, as the prospect of a Trump nomination became more imminent, establishment Republicans pressured Romney or House Speaker Paul Ryan to enter the race; Romney had already decided not to enter the race on January 30, 2015, while Ryan announced he would not enter on April 13, 2016.

In the Virgin Islands caucuses on March 10, a slate composed wholly of uncommitted delegates was initially elected. However, the entire slate was later disqualified by the territorial party and was replaced by the elected alternates two uncommitted, two for Rubio and one each for Cruz and Trump. The dispute later went to court. Also on March 10, there was a debate in Florida between the four surviving candidates, which was conducted in a more civil tone than prior debates.

March 512 results Candidate

Delegates won:1

I Made A Decision To Live My Life In Service

Brock Pierce is a former child actor who appeared in the Mighty Ducks franchise and starred as the presidents son in the 1996 comedy First Kid. But thanks to his second career as a tech entrepreneur, hes also probably a crypto currency billionaire.

Why is he running for president? Partly because he is deeply concerned by the state of the country.

I think that we lack a real vision for the future I mean, what kind of world do we want to live in, in the year 2030? What is the plan? Where are we trying to get to, you know? You have to aim for something. And I see mostly just a lot of mud being thrown around, not a lot of people putting forth game-changing ideas. Its getting scary. And I have a view of what to do.

For the last four years, Mr Pierce has focused on philanthropic work in Puerto Rico, where his foundation recently raised a million dollars for PPE to give to first responders.

Asked what Americas priorities should be for the next four years, he suggests the country stops pursuing growth for growths sake, and measures its success by how well life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness are upheld.

I have many liberal tendencies, just like I have conservative tendencies, Mr Pierce says. And I think its time we take a collective breath and a brave step into the future, because all of these ideologies have something to teach us.

And if he doesnt pull it off? Mr Pierce says he has offers.

Recommended Reading: Congress Denies Funding For Benghazi

Former Us Ambassador To The United Nations Nikki Haley

Haley, 49, stands out in the potential pool of 2024 Republican candidates by her resume. She has experience as an executive as the former governor of South Carolina and foreign policy experience from her time as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.

Haley was a member of the Republican Partys 2010 tea party class. A former South Carolina state representative, her long shot gubernatorial campaign saw its fortunes improve after she was endorsed by Sarah Palin. Haley rocketed from fourth to first just days after the endorsement, and she went on to clinch the nomination and become her states first female and first Indian-American governor.

As governor, she signed a bill removing the Confederate flag from the state Capitol following the white supremacist attack at the Emanuel African Methodist Church in Charleston. She left office in 2017 to join the Trump administration as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, and Quinnipiac poll found she was at one point the most popular member of Trumps foreign policy team.

I think that shes done a pretty masterful job in filling out her resume, said Robert Oldendick, a professor and director of graduate studies at the University of South Carolinas department of political science.

Haley criticized Trump following the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol by his supporters, saying she was disgusted by his conduct. Oldendick said he thought her pretty pointed criticism of the president will potentially cause some problems.

How Biden Won: Ramping Up The Base And Expanding Margins In The Suburbs

It brings the number of states Biden flipped from Trumps 2016 column to five, including Arizona, which last voted Democratic in a presidential race when it backed Clinton in 1996.

Biden also flipped Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, three key northern industrial states that ultimately delivered the White House to Trump four years ago. Biden also won a single electoral vote in Nebraskas 2nd Congressional District, which last voted Democratic for former President Barack Obama in 2008.

Electors from each state and the District of Columbia are expected to vote on Dec. 14. The new Congress will then count the votes and certify Bidens victory on Jan. 6, two weeks before the inauguration.

But Georgias political activity is far from over. The state will hold two runoff elections on Jan. 5 for both its U.S. Senate seats, which are currently held by Republicans.

Recommended Reading: Secret Service Lapel Pin Meaning

The Long Race For The 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination Begins

WEST DES MOINES, Iowa In the past week alone, Nikki Haley regaled activists in Iowa, Mike Pence courted donors in California and Donald Trump returned to the rally stage, teasing a third campaign for the White House.

The midterms are more than a year away, and there are 1,225 days until the next presidential election. But Republicans eyeing a White House run are wasting no time in jockeying for a strong position in what could emerge as an extremely crowded field of contenders.

The politicking will only intensify in the coming weeks, particularly in Iowa, home to the nations leadoff presidential caucuses and a state where conservative evangelicals play a significant role in steering the direction of the GOP. Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas is slated to visit on Tuesday, and others, including Pence, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo are expected to appear in July.

The flurry of activity is a sign that there is no clear frontrunner to lead the GOP if Trump opts against a 2024 campaign.

It definitely feels early, but it doesnt feel like its a bad idea based on the situation, said Mike DuHaime, a longtime Republican strategist. The party has changed, the voters are changing and I think the process has changed. And I think many of the candidates have realized that.

We won the election twice, he said. And its possible well have to win it a third time.

As for Trump?

Sen Marco Rubio Of Florida

Like Cruz, Rubio would enter the 2024 presidential race with heightened name ID and experience from his 2016 run. One of Rubios biggest challenges, though, could be his fellow Floridians. If DeSantis and fellow Sen. Rick Scott run, there could be just one ticket out of Florida, a Republican strategist said.

Rubio, 49, is married to Jeanette Dousdebes and they have four children. He graduated from the University of Florida and University of Miami School of Law and was speaker of the Florida House of Representatives before running for U.S. Senate in 2010.

You May Like: Top Republicans In Congress

Confidence Interval: Republicans Will Win Back Congress In 2022

natesilver: Good pick.

nrakich: Yeah, Pence has led almost every 2024 poll so far that hasnt included Trump. It goes back to what I said earlier about name recognition a lot of the time, the early front-runner wins and you dont have to overthink it.;;

geoffrey.skelley: Pence was my No. 2 pick for these reasons. Plus, vice presidents who run for the presidency have a pretty good history of winning nominations! Think of Joe Biden, Al Gore, George H.W. Bush, Walter Mondale. As Nathaniel wrote back in 2019, its often been a successful stepping stone to the presidency.

alex: Not bad, Sarah! But to play devils advocate: If Trump doesnt run, but the GOP is still the party of Trump in 2022 or 2024, would someone who didnt overturn the election go far?

sarah: Excellent point, Alex, which brings me to my second pick. Pence isnt the most charismatic, and as has been pointed out, the idea that the GOP moves in a more moderate direction might not be the direction the party is interested in heading in. And while I know some like Geoffrey are convinced that Trump is gonna pull a Cleveland and run again as I said up top, I dont buy it I think Republicans are going to be OK with someone else at the top of the ticket as long as they stick to Trumps agenda. And if Im right, who better than Trumps eldest son, the heir apparent?

Its grievance politics 2.0 that maybe has the potential to win back Republicans in the suburbs.

geoffrey.skelley: Oh man. DJTJ?

Other Candidates Who Filed To Run For President In 2024 But Are Not Currently In The Race

Republican Lawmakers Are Terrified Of Trump Running For President Again

Other than Democrats and Republicans there are other Third Party candidates and Independent candidates who will seek their name on the ballot in 2024. While a Third Party or Independent candidate has never won the general election it does not detour their efforts to win the Presidency. Below is a list of registered candidates for each additional party.

Also Check: How Many Democratic Presidents Have Republicans Tried To Impeach

Trumpworld Is Already Weighing Veeps For 2024 Hint: It Aint Pence

The former president is keeping tabs on the field and hes all but decided to ditch the guy he ran with last time.

07/23/2021 04:30 AM EDT

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Donald Trump and his advisers are convinced that if he runs again for president in 2024, the Republican nomination will be his. Their confidence is so supreme that they view almost all of the emerging field not as competition but as possible vice presidential picks.

No formal vetting process is in place, and there is no expectation that Trump, should he run, will do so unopposed in a Republican primary. But allies of the former president are already keeping tabs on how GOP officials with presidential ambitions are addressing Trump himself and the legitimacy of Joe Bidens election.

You cant wait to run for president, said one Trump adviser. But those doing it now look like theyre dancing on the grave and the political bodys still warm.

As things stand now, Trump is extremely unlikely to run again with former Vice President Mike Pence as his number two, advisers say. Some Trump aides have also written off Pences political future, at least at the presidential level, privately arguing that he has failed to capture anything close to the same kind of enthusiasm as Trump. They point to anger among the most diehard Trump supporters over Pences decision to carry out his Constitutional duty in certifying Bidens election win.

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Trumpism Suffers Untold Damage In Its Collision With The Us Capitol

It is not an accident that Trump, following the advice of onetime adviser Steve Bannon, spoke approvingly of Jackson in 2016. When he entered the White House, Trump hung Jackson’s presidential portrait in the Oval Office overlooking the Resolute Desk.

It is not hard to imagine Trump invoking the spirit of Jackson’s 1828 campaign against the “corrupt bargain,” if he runs in 2024 against “the steal” .

Jackson, the ultimate outsider in his own time, makes a far better template for Trump than either Cleveland or Teddy Roosevelt â even though the latter two were New Yorkers like Trump.

Two New York governors, two decades apart

For now, Cleveland remains the only two-term president who had a time out between terms. When he first won in 1884, he was the first Democratic president elected in 28 years, and he won by the micro-margin of just 25,000 votes nationwide. He won because he carried New York, where he was governor at the time, adding its electoral votes to those of Democratic-leaning states in the South â which preferred a Democratic Yankee to a Republican Yankee.

Potent as it was, that language backfired by alienating enough Catholics in New York to elect Cleveland, himself a Protestant. His margin in his home state was a mere thousand votes, but it was enough to deliver a majority in the Electoral College.

A statue of Theodore Roosevelt in New York City. After leaving office, Roosevelt tried unsuccessfully to return to the White House.hide caption

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President Trump Your Legacy Is Secure Stop The ‘stolen Election’ Rhetoric

As many on the left have pointed out, the 2020 election was less a repudiation of Trump than a narrow loss for a man who proved just unpalatable enough for a critical sliver of his coalition.

Sean Spicer, a former Trump press secretary, told The Post his ex-boss would be an instant front-runner in a 2024 primary. He has a rock-solid base, I just dont think that there is anyone else who even comes close.

Teasing a potential run in 2024 would at the very least ensure Trump stays relevant and in the press for years to come.

If Trump himself passes on the opportunity, his two very political children Don Jr. and Ivanka Trump could also potentially pick up the mantle. Trump Jr. has long acted as an outside surrogate for his father online and in the press and connects strongly with his base. Ivanka, meanwhile, has years of administration experience under her belt as a White House adviser to her father.

Odds On Which Candidate Will Drop Out Next

When the early state primaries and caucuses are ongoing, sportsbooks usually post a fun political prop on the next candidate to drop out. These futures odds tend to focus on the side that is in opposition to the incumbent, but in 2024, we expect to see legitimate challengers on both sides of the aisle.

However, if Biden makes it through his first three years in good physical and mental health, there is a strong likelihood that the 2024 campaign could be a repeat of 2020: Biden vs. Trump. The heat of these campaigns is still a long way off, and anything can happen between now and then, but the odds are the highest and most profitable the further out bettors lay action on them.

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‘i Made A Decision To Live My Life In Service’

Brock Pierce is a former child actor who appeared in the Mighty Ducks franchise and starred as the president’s son in the 1996 comedy First Kid. But thanks to his second career as a tech entrepreneur, he’s also probably a crypto currency billionaire.

Why is he running for president? Partly because he is deeply concerned by the state of the country.

“I think that we lack a real vision for the future – I mean, what kind of world do we want to live in, in the year 2030? What is the plan? Where are we trying to get to, you know? You have to aim for something. And I see mostly just a lot of mud being thrown around, not a lot of people putting forth game-changing ideas. It’s getting scary. And I have a view of what to do.”

For the last four years, Mr Pierce has focused on philanthropic work in Puerto Rico, where his foundation recently raised a million dollars for PPE to give to first responders.

Asked what America’s priorities should be for the next four years, he suggests the country stops pursuing “growth for growth’s sake”, and measures its success by how well life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness are upheld.

“I have many liberal tendencies, just like I have conservative tendencies,” Mr Pierce says. “And I think it’s time we take a collective breath and a brave step into the future, because all of these ideologies have something to teach us.”

‘We don’t like either candidate’

And if he doesn’t pull it off? Mr Pierce says he has offers.

List Of United States Republican Party Presidential Tickets

This is a list of the candidates for the offices of President of the United States and Vice President of the United States of the Republican Party, either duly preselected and nominated, or the presumptive nominees of a future preselection and election. Opponents who received over one percent of the popular vote or ran an official campaign that received Electoral College votes are listed. Offices held prior to Election Day are included, and those held on Election Day have an italicized end date.

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