#contracts clause

[mostlysignssomeportents]

How (and why) Biden should overcome the Supreme Court to end the debt showdown

’m coming to the HowTheLightGetsIn festival in HAY-ON-WYE with my novel Red Team Blues:

Sun (May 28), 1130AM: The AI Enigma

Mon (May 29), 12PM: Danger and Desire at the Frontier

I’m at OXFORD’s Blackwell’s on May 29 at 7:30PM with Tim Harford.

Then it’s Nottingham, Manchester, London, Edinburgh, and Berlin!

Is it legal for Congress to default on the US national debt? It depends on who you ask. There are a ton of good legal arguments for and against, so perhaps it comes down to what the (degraded, corrupt, illegitimate, partisan) Supreme Court says?

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/04/opinion/biden-administration-debt-republican.html

Put in those terms, it seems like the game was over before it began. Biden should just surrender, hand the most extreme wing of the (degraded, corrupt, illegitimate, authoritarian) Republican Party whatever it wants, even if doing so will push Biden’s approval rating even lower, dangerously close to the next federal election.

In this telling, the Republicans have already won. The decision to let the GOP steal three Supreme Court seats, combined with the decision not to end the debt ceiling charade when Dems had the majorities to do so, means that from now on, we live in the GOP’s shithole country, where the only “freedoms” that matter are the freedom to control others’ bodily autonomy and gender expression; the freedom to exploit labor; the freedom to censor ideas that challenge white nationalist, imperialist messages; and the freedom to menace with open-carry assault weapons:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/19/opinion/republican-legislatures-abortion-trangender-education.html

In other words, we’re screwed. Might as well dig a hole, climb inside, and pull the dirt in on top of us.

Fuck that.

There are clear majorities in support of the Build Back Better agenda, and even for the watered down Machin Synematic Universe version we got through the Infrastructure Bill. If the Dems could mobilize voters — by convincing them that they were committed to doing things rather than capitulating — they could win strong majorities in 2024. Even in the gerrymandered, antimajoritarian America, electoral wins are possible — they just require overwhelming turnout, rather than the 50.00001% “victories” favored by “data-driven” Democratic consultants (victories that leave the party incapable of governing, and let monsters like Joe Manchin hold the entire nation hostage).

Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe doing things won’t mobilize voters. But if we’re already going to stipulate that without significant majorities, the real President of the United States is the three-headed monster (Gorsuch, Thomas, and Roberts), and the billionaires who yank their chains, then what do we have to lose?

There are a lot of things that Biden could try to get through the debt ceiling crisis without giving up on the promises he made to the American people and the programs the American Congress passed. Here’s a couple interesting ones, courtesy of Brad DeLong:

“The Federal Reserve might simply record a negative balance in the Treasury account,” then create an “overdraft” account and pay the US’s obligations out of it;

The Fed could tell retail banks trying to clear government checks that the checks didn’t clear, and the banks could tell their depositors, “ your Treasury check has bounced, but do not worry, we have credited your account, anyway, and will handle this, and please be very grateful to us.”

https://braddelong.substack.com/p/debt-ceiling-what-are-e-fallback

Of course, there are lots of other possibilities: Biden could issue an Executive Order to the effect that the Debt Ceiling violates the 14th Amendment. Or that it violates the Contracts Clause. Or he could order the Treasury to start issuing coupon-free bonds. Or he could just mint the coin:

https://www.theverge.com/2023/5/23/23734654/government-debt-default-trillion-dollar-platinum-coin

Yes, each of these would end up in front of the (degraded, corrupt, illegitimate, partisan) Supreme Court, who would very likely strike them down.

But writing for The American Prospect, Ryan Cooper argues that this could still be sound tactics:

https://prospect.org/economy/2023-05-25-democrats-fear-supreme-court/

If Biden does something about the debt default, and the Supremes block it, then the default is their fault. What’s more, it’s a mess they absolutely do not want to get into, like deciding which of the US’s creditors will and won’t get paid when they sue over the default. And if the court won’t do it, will they give the president the power to “just pick and choose what gets paid? That would give him a de facto line-item veto over the entire budget, and the Court has already ruled that a law explicitly giving him that power is unconstitutional”:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clinton_v._City_of_New_York

Basically, if the Supreme Court kills Biden’s attempt to resolve the budget crisis, then it becomes the Supreme Court’s problem, as everyone owed a federal payment “say, Social Security beneficiaries or military contractors,” brings a case — “There would be tens of millions of such potential litigants.”

So what should Biden do?

Call their bluff.

First, mint the coin. If the court strikes that down, issue coupon-free bonds. If the court strikes that down, declare debt ceilings to violate the 14th Amendment. If the court strikes that down, declare it to violate the Contracts Clause. Keep doing it. Throw in every solution including the kitchen sink — but never give into the GOP’s demand for Biden to violate his promise to the American people and unilaterally tear up laws establishing programs that make our lives better.

This is what Lincoln did when the Supreme Court blocked his attempts to end slavery. It’s what FDR did when they blocked the New Deal. The court doesn’t have an army, it can’t force its decisions on the American people. It doesn’t have a bureaucratic workforce and it can’t take over the administrative branch — hell, they don’t even have the keys to the office buildings.

The Supreme Court’s power comes from its legitimacy, not force of arms, and while they may not act like it, the Supremes know in their bones that without legitimacy, they are nothing:

https://pluralistic.net/2023/03/25/consequentialism/#dotards-in-robes

The justices in stolen seats have made it clear that they consider themselves to be “a de facto super-legislature that rules in favor of its own partisan policy objectives based on tendentious up-is-down reasoning or no reasoning at all.” This is an illegitimate proposition.

The Supreme Court can’t get any less legitimate. If Biden were to ignore the Supremes and make good law in the teeth of their pronouncements, it couldn’t make the situation any worse than it is today. The Supremes have set themselves against labor law, against climate resiliency, against bodily autonomy, against political accountability, against the rule of law itself. We should not — we must not — cede the power to overrule democratically elected lawmakers and the will of the people.

As Cooper says, Biden should tell the Supremes to go pound sand and then “raise holy hell in speeches and the press to make clear the grotesque irresponsibility of what is happening”:

Here’s an institution trying to cause a completely pointless national default, destroying untold jobs, businesses, and the credit rating of the country, whose elite members are all unelected, where five members of the majority were appointed by a president who took office after losing the popular vote, and one of whom occupies a blatantly stolen seat. Here’s an institution that has struck down anti-corruption laws by the bushel and is openly rolling in oligarch graft like Scrooge McDuck, while declaring itself to be immune from oversight. All that would add to the political pressure on the justices.

If Biden can’t do well for the American people they they will not turn out in the massive majorities that Democrats need to get minimal majorities. If Biden can’t do well for the American people, then Biden — who would lose an election to either Ron DeSantis or Donald Trump if it were called today — will turn America’s predators loose on its people for at least four more years:

https://jacobin.com/2023/05/2024-presidential-election-2016-donald-trump-joe-biden/

And let’s face it, it’ll be Trump. DeSantis is dead in the water. The GOP is the party of out-of-control, swivel-eyed loons who’ve been whipped into a terrorized frenzy by an evil, crapulent senescent Australian billionaire and his freak henchmen, like the taint-tanning frozen food failson. They aren’t going to elect “smart Trump.” They like “stupid Trump” (AKA “Trump”) too much.

Catch me on tour with Red Team Blues in Hay-on-Wye, Oxford, Manchester, Nottingham, London, and Berlin!

If you'd like an essay-formatted version of this post to read or share, here's a link to it on pluralistic.net, my surveillance-free, ad-free, tracker-free blog:

https://pluralistic.net/2023/05/26/mint-the-coin-etc-etc/#blitz-em

[Image ID: A kitchen sink. The Supreme Court building protrudes from it. Behind the sink is a window. Joe Biden grins from the other side of the window.]

Image: Joe Ravi (modified) https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Panorama_of_United_States_Supreme_Court_Building_at_Dusk.jpg

CC BY-SA 3.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/deed.en

[welcometogrouchland]

No offense but I want Hunter to brag about him and willow next episode I don't care how out of character it is.

I want Eda to exorcise Belos out of puppet!Raine's body and for Hunter to stand over the shambling, melting corpse of the man who abused him and scream "you think you could hurt me? You think you could keep me down? Kill me? WELL YOU CAN'T. AND I HOPE YOU KNOW THAT AFTER I AROSE FROM THE GRAVE, I GOT A GIRLFRIEND. WE HELD HANDS FOR 3 WHOLE SECONDS. YEAH, THAT'S RIGHT, 3! YOU TRIED TO LEAVE MY BODY RIDDLED WITH SCARS??? JOKES ON YOU! SHE THINKS THAT'S HOT!!!!!! HOW DO YOU LIKE THEM APPLES, "UNCLE"???!!!!!" With Zeno doing his best unhinged hunter voice as Caleb fucking Fortnite dances in the background and Belos thrashes about in pain at the mention of premarital hand holding

[ailendolin]

The ghosts gave up so much when they told Alison it was okay to leave.

They haven't just lost the Coopers that day - they've lost all the little things Alison (and Mike) have brought into their afterlives. There will be no more war documentaries for the Captain, no more football for Pat, no more Friends for Thomas. No one will lay out their favourite books for them and turn the pages every morning. No one will put on their favourite music, dance with them or set up the chess board. No one will time the Captain's morning run or decorate the Christmas tree just like Fanny likes it.

I know they still have Julian to turn on the TV or music but with the house being turned into a hotel, they can no longer indulge in these things like they used to, not with guests around. And those guests will be staying in their bedrooms, robbing them of what little privacy they have or perhaps forcing them to give up their rooms altogether. Given that none of them used Heather's bedroom when she was alive, I think it's safe to assume they wouldn't constantly want to share their rooms with the livings.

They've lost so much when they let Alison go, and they must have known they would before they talked to her. But they set her free anyway because that's what you do when you love someone: you have their best interests at heart, not your own.

And I think that, more than anything, shows how much they've grown since Alison came into their lives.

[rickybaby]

Daniel on Ted’s Notebook | Testing Day 3 | pt.2

“[Lando] is normally pretty honest. So if he’s feeling a little down, maybe they expected to be a little quicker […] but for now, we’re hopefully a Q3 or top 10 car but to be much more than that, I think that’s probably getting too excited 😁😁😁”

[macaiv]

Has anyone listened to this french podcast Esteban was on a number of months ago? I don't speak French so I had to get by using the auto-translate (while slowing down the video a bit) and the google translate app transcribe function. I think the translation was fairly understandable. Anyway, here are some parts I found interesting:

Esteban mentioned that included in his contract was that the team (Alpine) must not have a number 1 driver and that he doesn't want one side to be favoured over the other. He wants to have the same "weapons" to fight with his teammate.

His dad was a French Junior Cycling Champion when he was younger but was unable to progress further due to the lack of resources and lack of contacts. So his dad made a promise with himself that if he will have a child in a similar situation, he will do the maximum in order for their dream to happen. That's why he and his mum were so willing to sacrifice everything for him.

They were able to get Nico Rosberg to ask a question to Esteban. He, in true form, asked about teammate rivalry 😆 Esteban mentioned that Nico gave him a lot of support and advice when he arrived in Formula 1 in 2016.

His Dad also asked a question, "What was your best memory from the karting years?". "I remember we were parked on this mountain at the Monaco Karting Grand Prix in 2010. I will always remember waking up in the caravan every morning, opening the door and seeing the sea right in front." He would see other drivers going to the hotel while they stayed behind since they lived in a caravan. The hotel was more comfortable but because they slept on/near the track, it was to their advantage that they were able to work longer in the evenings making them more prepared for the race.

Besides these everything else discussed were already mentioned in his other interviews.

[20001541]

AU where All For One tries to explode Lady Nagant as per canon but then realizes he forgot to give the explosion quirk to her so then it's just awkward

[anothernightanotherdream2]

If we ever get a scene where Husk stands up to Alastor for the others the way Angel did to Valentino, I will be forever screaming about it.

"Broadcast my screams! Tear my soul apart! I don't care! But I will do my best to protect them from you. That's a promise."

[silentreigns]

I didn't process this much while it was happening but this has to be one of the most wildest radio moments from last season. How could Torger expect Lewis to have faith in the team and car with that kind of message?

[dragon-cookies]

What do you guys think would be more satisfying

Angel Dust strangling Valentino with this own chains like Leia strangled Jabba the Hut

Or Angel Dust acquiring a knife made of angelic steel and stabbing Valentino from behind like the song Noel’s Lament from Ride the Cyclone

[asleepinawell]

if you choose to take mizora up on her offer of one banging hot night of infernal lust while staying in the inn, the game places you right next to aylin and isobel after while mizora is still dirty talking you lmao

aylin gained a condition: judging you

[paddockpatrol]

[rickybaby]

“👀”

[doolallymagpie]

another BattleTech vs The Expanse poll (and this time the other one isn't even over! go vote here if you haven't), this time:

[sadaveniren]

sorry I don’t think I was around at the time and everything with bbg is already convoluted and confusing enough for me as it is. Can you briefly explain boobgate to me? B was found to have had plastic surgery on her breast at the time she was supposedly pregnant and seems to have lead to this mess in recent years to compensate/not have any more slip ups? Is that the gist?

In 2020/2021 Briana had a new boyfriend who paid for her breast implants (that she didn’t even take care of like how hard is it to massage them) but then after he paid for them she ghosted him and so he sued her and went to the papers about how Louis has abandoned the kid (which we already knew because Louis went radio silence from 2018-2020 with the kid) and then talked about the fact that to avoid having a formal, legal custody arrangement Louis agreed not to take a paternity test and just pay Briana $60,000 a year in child support.

This was a big problem because since this was an actual court case and he wanted paid back for the boob job Briana’s finances would be looked at. And if her finances were looked at they might see Briana getting $60,000 tax free (as child support in the USA is given) but then she’s not spending it on her son… or maybe the courts would find that Briana ISNT getting $60,000 tax free, instead she’s getting taxed on it (because it’s an employment cost) or she’s being paid as an independent contractor who is responsible for filing taxes on that $60,000. Whatever way it was looking into the finances of Briana’s compensation was going to be a problem and Louis/LTHQ had to step in to wrangle it.

Therefore Briana (and the Clarks) lost basically all rights to doing stuff, the house she was living in just got sold, and we got Freddie in the documentary because Louis had to clean up the mess she caused by scamming some dude for fake boobs. 🤷🏼‍♀️

Oh and they never went to their court date! They settled out of court. Because again. They could not have this looked at under a microscope that is a legal court case.

[dwtdog]

do you think he got an extension for emotional clauses because at this point i would. poor fucking sapnap man half of his friends are gone and the other half are getting attacked by the internet fuckkk poor him

at least he had fun in the mc event a few days ago and made new friends 😭 maybe bro just needs to pick up duolingo and leave the english speaking mcyt side behind

[alarrytale]

If they were still bound by the image clause wouldn’t Louis not be able to do a lot of the things he does now? And Harry? Harry sings explicitly about drugs and Louis swears a lot even in interviews and generally they do a lot of things that are presumed to be under the image clause. I mean, Louis released a whole movie where he talked about the gripes he had with people in the studio. If babygate is truly a thing, I don’t think that would be what keeping it going.

Hi, anon!

Good question. I think they've both negotiated with Sony several times over the years and Louis has been at the helm of it. I think they've managed to get Sony on board with letting them have some slack in regards to their public images in exhange for their cooperation. There is little that would threaten H's career other than larry, so i don't think Sony cares much about other aspects than that. H shaving his hair off is fine.

I also think Sony let Louis go to BMG and let L and BMG create his own new image, as long as the image is in accordance with bg and that whole narrative. If he didn’t they probably wouldn't have let him leave. Also, as i've mentioned before, 1D may still have deliverables to Sony in form of an album and tour. 1D never broke up. They're on a hiatus. There might be a reunion clause in their contracts for all we know. If Sony's going to make money off a reunion, they can't have their members with face tattoos, three convictions and a member who's posting right wing conspiracies on the internet.

Also Sony did care about making sure Niall was blond (to make him the blond one), that Liam was the responsible one (he's the one that was balancing on a ledge) and that Zayn was the mysterious one (to mask his anxiety). Sony made up cheating stories, drug stories and you name it to get 1Ds names in the papers. They were a boyband and very controlled. Sony knows that sex, drugs and rock and roll sells, so they're okay with that. They're also okay with performative queerness, that's exciting and interesting, as long as people don't believe they're actually gay and in relationship. That's the thing they fear the most (not in a homophobic way, but in a it will hurt the bottom line way). Also, letting H and L give off the illusion that they are free and can do and say what they want will help legitimise bg. Louis can come off as very outspoken, he did in 1d too, but we know he's holding back on several topics. There is so much he can't say or do still. Neither of them are free.