#electoral data

[probablyasocialecologist]

Adopting rightwing policies on issues such as immigration and the economy does not help centre-left parties win votes, according to new analysis of European electoral and polling data. Faced with a 20-year decline in their vote share, accompanied by rising support for the right, far right and sometimes the far left, social democratic parties across Europe have increasingly sought salvation by moving towards the political centre. However the analysis, published on Wednesday, shows that centre-left parties promising, for example, to be tough on immigration or unrelenting on public spending are both unlikely to attract potential voters on the right, and risk alienating existing progressive supporters.

[...]

One of the key lessons was that “trying to imitate rightwing positions is just not a successful strategy for the left”, he said. Two studies in particular, looking at so-called welfare chauvinism and fiscal policy, illustrated the point, the researchers said. Björn Bremer of the Central European University in Vienna said a survey in Spain, Italy, the UK and Germany and larger datasets from 12 EU countries showed that since the financial crisis of 2008, “fiscal orthodoxy” had been a vote loser for the centre left. “Social democratic parties that have backed austerity fail to win the support of voters worried about public debt, and lose the backing of those who oppose austerity,” Bremer said. “Centre-left parties that actually impose austerity lose votes.”

[...]

The data strongly suggests centre-left parties can build a coalition of voters who believe a strong welfare state, effective public services and real investment, for example in the green transition, are essential,” Bremer said. “But doing the opposite – offering a contradictory programme that promotes austerity but promises to protect public services and the welfare state, and hoping voters will swallow such fairytales – failed in the 2010s, and is likely to fail again.” Similarly, said Matthias Enggist of the University of Lausanne, analysis of data from eight European countries showed no evidence that welfare chauvinism – broadly, restricting immigrants’ access to welfare – was a successful strategy for the left.

[identitty-dickruption]

the thing is. ever since 2007, there’s been a consistent trend that Australians don’t blame the government for economic issues. yes, it sucks that the Libs have Labor up for failure with the tax cuts. but I don’t see it having a tangible effect on the public’s perception of either of the parties. the average Australian blames “global context” for economic strife, which will work for the current government in this case

[newspatron]

Unmasking the Deep State Toolkit

What are your thoughts on the Deep State Toolkit allegations? Share your views in the comments below!

Unmasking the Deep State Toolkit: The Haryana Elections and Indian DemocracyDecoding the Deep State ToolkitWhat is the Deep State?Deep State Conspiracy Theories: A Global PhenomenonDeep State Toolkit: The Alleged Modus OperandiDeep State Toolkit in the Haryana Elections: Fact or Fiction?Congress’s Alleged Adoption of the ToolkitD K Dubey’s Legal Analysis: Separating Truth from SpeculationThe…

[superblyeffective]

[Image ID: Screenshot of headline stating

New Poll Suggests Gaza Ceasefire and Arms Embargo Would Help Dems with Swing State Voters

The YouGov/IMEU Policy Project poll found over a third of voters in Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia are more likely to vote for a Democratic nominee who pledges to withhold weapons to Israel.

by Prem Thakker August 14, 2024

Methodology: IMEU Policy Project and YouGov’s survey was conducted July 25-Aug. 9. 387 voters were surveyed in Arizona, with a margin of error of 5.7%. 374 voters were surveyed in Georgia, with a margin of error of 5.4%. 369 voters were surveyed in Pennsylvania, with a margin of error of 5.3%.

/.End ID]

https://zeteo.com/p/poll-harris-democrats-gaza-ceasefire-arms-embargo

[nando161mando]

AOC calls for Venezuela electoral officials to publish complete and detailed electoral data for each voting station.

[legalattorneyblog]

NBA Calls for Voter Data Verification Ahead of 2024 General Elections

Distinguished Colleagues, The Electoral Committee of the Nigerian Bar Association (ECNBA) has published on its website ECNBA Notice 8, requesting all members to proceed to verify their personal details and data on the Voters’ Database. According to the ECNBA, “This verification is crucial to ensure the accuracy and integrity of our voter database of members and to facilitate a smooth and…

[best-news-report]

Electoral Bonds Data Live Updates

[strategiadvizo]

The Role of Digital Marketing in Shaping India's 2024 General Election: Insights from Strategia Advizo

As India gears up for the 2024 general election, the landscape of political campaigning is witnessing a transformative shift towards digital marketing. Strategia Advizo, a leading digital marketing service provider, stands at the forefront of this change, leveraging innovative strategies to influence electoral outcomes. The significance of digital marketing in the upcoming election cannot be…

[rightnewshindi]

Latest Data; इलेक्टोरल बॉन्ड से भाजपा को मिला सबसे ज्यादा 6987 करोड़ का चंदा, जानें दूसरे और तीसरे नंबर पर कौन

Latest Data; इलेक्टोरल बॉन्ड से भाजपा को मिला सबसे ज्यादा 6987 करोड़ का चंदा, जानें दूसरे और तीसरे नंबर पर कौन

Electoral Bonds Update: चुनाव आयोग ने इलेक्टोरल बॉन्ड का नया डाटा सार्वजनिक कर दिया है। नए डाटा के अनुसार बीजेपी को जहां सबसे ज्यादा चुनावी बॉन्ड से चंदा मिला है, तो वहीं दूसरे नंबर पर ममता बनर्जी की पार्टी तृणमूल कांग्रेस हैं। इलेक्टोरल बॉन्ड से चंदा लेने के मामले में कांग्रेस तीसरे नंबर पर है। बीजेपी को इलेक्टोरल बॉन्ड से कितना मिला बीजेपी ने कुल 6,986.5 करोड़ रुपये के चुनावी बांड भुनाए।…

[jimbotimes]

California leads the States in donations to Trump through Quarter 3

When governors Gavin Newsom and Ron DeSantis held their “debate” this past November, one minor fact missing from the discussion was that donors in “the Golden State” have actually led the nation in supporting Donald Trump’s re-election campaign so far. Data from the Federal Election Commission shows that since August 2022 – September 2023, Californians have made at least 167,000 donations for the…

[crazyintheeast]

For people who don't remember the 2016 Tumblr was full of Russian trolls who posed as progressive social justice blogs and urged young liberals to throw their vote away on a third party. You can read more about it here :https://www.wired.com/story/tumblr-russia-trolls-propaganda/ This camapign was extraiordinary succesful and third party voters were a key reason why Trump one( if you look at the electoral results you will see that the race was so close that if the third party votes had gone to Hillary she would have easily buried Trump) Sadly we didn't know that this was a orchestred camapign until Tumblr released the data itself and told us who the blogs were. Those were not simple spam blogs. They were pros. They knew how to talk to people, they made real posts and interacted. They tried this in 2020 but we were wary because the memories were still fresh But now thy are trying again. I just found this guy who is running the EXACT same play book as in 2016. Pretending to be a person of color , poting progresive posts while at the same time urigng everyoe to vote third party. As soon as I called him out he immedately blocked me beause he knew I outed him. So now i's up to you guys. Don't let Trump supporting Russian trolls run their psy ops here. Report en masse and get them now instead of waiting for months for tumblr to tell us they worked for Trump REPORT THIS RUSSIAN TROLL NOW. DON'T LET THEM PULL THEIR GAMES AGAIN: https://www.tumblr.com/decolonize-the-left

[awakenlng369]

ELECTION REGISTER DATA BREACH - Name, Phone Numbers, Address and E-Mails

Election Register Data Breached for 2 Years 1. The Electoral Commissioner FAILED TO INFORM THE PUBLIC THEIR DATA WAS SOLD ON THE OPEN REGISTER 2. IT IS A DATA BREACH TO COLLECT ALL YOUR HOUSEHOLDS DATA FROM 1 PERSON Did The Public asking To be Removed instigate the announcement Failing to Report to ICO within 72 Hours Capita Data Breach Open Register is Abused – Councils Fail to Adhere to…

[reasonsforhope]

For all the concern in recent years that U.S. democracy is on the brink, in danger or under threat, a report out Tuesday offers a glimmer of good news for American voters worried that casting a ballot will be difficult in 2024.

Put simply, the new data shows that voting in America has gotten easier over the past two decades. More voters have the ability to cast a ballot before Election Day, with the majority of U.S. states now offering some form of early in-person voting and mail voting to all voters.

"Although we often talk in a partisan context about voter fraud and voter suppression and whether voters have access to the ballot, the reality is, over the past 25 years, we've greatly increased the convenience of voting for almost all Americans," said David Becker, the founder and executive director of the Center for Election Innovation & Research (CEIR), which authored the new report...

The data shows that, despite real efforts by some Republican-led legislatures to restrict access at the margins, the trend in the U.S. since 2000 has been toward making it easier to vote: Nearly 97% of voting-age American citizens now live in states that offer the option to vote before Election Day.

"The lies about early voting, the lies about voting machines and efforts in some state legislatures to roll back some of the election integrity and convenience measures that have evolved over the last several decades, those efforts almost all failed," Becker said. "In almost every single state, voters can choose to vote when they want to."

Forty-six states and Washington, D.C., offer some form of early in-person voting, the report tallied, and 37 of those jurisdictions also offer mail voting to all voters without requiring an excuse...

In 2000

In 2024

Infographic via NPR. If you go to the article, you can watch an animation of this map that shows voting availability in every election since 2000.

There are some political trends that show up in the data. Of the 14 states that don't offer mail voting to all voters, for instance, 12 have Republican-led legislatures.

-via NPR, March 19, 2024. Article continues below.

But maybe the more striking trends are geographic. Every single state in the western U.S. has offered some form of early and mail voting to all voters since 2004, according to the data. And those states span the political spectrum, from conservative Idaho to liberal California.

"It's really hard to talk about partisanship around this issue because historically there just hasn't been much," Mann said. "We've seen voting by mail and early in-person voting supported by Republican legislatures, Democratic legislatures, Republican governors, Democratic governors. We see voters in both parties use both methods." ...

In 2020, New York, Connecticut and Massachusetts all made changes to make voting more easily accessible, which have since partially or fully become permanent. Delaware is currently embroiled in a legal fight over whether it can implement early and mail voting changes this election cycle as well.

The South, with its history of slavery and Jim Crow laws, has long lagged behind when it comes to voting access. The CEIR data shows that, although some states have slowly started expanding options for voters, generally it is still the most difficult region for voters to cast a ballot.

As options nationwide have become more widely available, voters have also responded by taking advantage.

In the 2000 election, 86% of voters voted at a polling place on Election Day, according to U.S. Census Bureau data.

In 2020, during the pandemic, that number dropped to less than 31% of voters. It went back up in 2022, to roughly half of the electorate, but was still in line with the two-decade trend toward more ballots being cast early.

...in reality, Becker says, more voting options actually make elections more secure and less susceptible to malicious activity or even human error.

"If there were a problem, if there were a cyber event, if there were a malfunction, if there were bad weather, if there were traffic, if there were was a power outage, you could think of all kinds of circumstances. ... The more you spread voting out over a series of days and over multiple modes, the less likely it's going to impact voters," he said...

-via NPR, March 19, 2024

[zvaigzdelasas]

A growing body of research shows that authoritarian regimes can be responsive to ordinary citizens, but why is this the case?

Why do those in power expend any effort in dealing with citizens’ everyday complaints and demands when they face no pressure from electoral [editor's note: ruling party] competition?[...]

We tested whether responsiveness among local officials comes from bottom-up citizen engagement, from top-down oversight of government superiors, or from preferential treatment toward loyal supporters.

In our experiment, we made four types of requests asking for assistance in obtaining social welfare benefits on local government web forums and examined how differences in these requests affected government responses.

1: The baseline – a request to simply describe economic hardship.

2: Collective action request – an intention to take some undefined action with other people who face similar hardship if the government cannot help.

3: Tattling to superiors request – an intention to complain to upper levels of government if the government cannot help.

4: Party loyalist request – identification as a loyal, long-standing Party member.[...]

we find that the collective action requests and tattling to superiors requests generate higher levels of responsiveness from Chinese local governments than the simple description of economic hardship; however, the identification as a Party loyalist, does not increase responsiveness substantially. With the baseline request, we received responses from approximately one third of counties. To put this number in context, one third is higher than responsiveness of U.S. state legislators to constituents (~20%) but lower than the responsiveness among members the U.S. congress (~40%) on certain [sic] issues. Adding the intention of collective action and tattling to superiors both increase response rates by 8-10 percentage points.

The second finding is that the collective action requests, compared with other types of requests, made the local government respond in a more public manner.[...]

Third, we also find that local officials are more likely to provide pertinent and concrete information to citizens when receiving the collective action requests.[...]

these results show that top-down mechanisms of oversight as well as some forms of bottom-up pressure exerted by citizens can increase government responsiveness in this particular authoritarian context. Regardless of whether responsiveness derives from top-down mechanisms or bottom up pressures, citizen engagement seems to be consequential.

seems like an awful lot of words to explain this when "the Chinese Government is democratic" is just 5

[mapsontheweb]

Map of werewolf witch trials

by subthings2

   Mapping the location of 223 witch trials that included accusations of turning into a wolf, mostly based on Lorey's online list (just under 200 listed). Blécourt gives a few corrections to Lorey's list, Klaniczay has 13 Hungarian trials, and Madar, Metsvah and Winkler collectively give 14 Estonian trials; Metsvah says there are 30 recorded in Estonia in total, but data on the rest weren't provided. When a location has multiple trials, the crosses form a circle around the city so as to not overlap - this is most obvious for Tallinn, Riga, and Sopron.  

   The initial point was to visualise how the trials spread over time, but what it also makes really obvious is how tightly clustered most of them are - this matches how regional the witch trials in general were, but also that beliefs in werewolves weren't evenly spread across Europe; hence the lack of anything in Great Britain, Basque Country, but weirdly also Scandinavia where southern Sweden is known for having a decent number of werewolves in its folklore.  

   Finally, after going through all of Lorey's descriptions, there's a few that stood out that I wanted to share (machine translated from German):  

   1619 Tonnis Steven von Grevenstein, shepherd in Kallenhardt (Electoral Cologne Office of Rüthen). “Out of pain and unbearable torment, I had to say that  I was a magician and a Wehrwolf, but God in heaven knows that everything is a lie and I have never seen a devil in my life.”  

   1652 Wilhelm Scheffern, shepherd from Metterich (di Metternich near Münstermaifeld, Kurtrier). One of the reasons he was talked about was because - in contrast to his successors - there were never any losses due to wolf attacks during his time as a shepherd. "It is entirely believed that the defendant could turn himself into a werewolf" (6th count) and "that he ... once made himself invisible in the field" (point 15). However, previously in points 2 and 3 "that his "The father was burned because of the vice" and "that the defendant's sisters were burned years ago because of the vice of magic." (Court verdict not received; according to Krämer, however, probably executed.)  

   1661 Cuno Jung, a shepherd from Westerburg, had not defended himself strongly enough against being called a werewolf. Because his parents were already under suspicion and his sister had been executed as a witch, he spoke out against the witchcraft trials. He also refused to take part in an execution as a lay judge. He once even tried to buy his way out as an observer at a witch trial. Executed in Westerburg.  

   there's also the WAR WLF of Lemgo, featuring this funky little guy that's also had several people write about the rather unfunky little trial  

   the single case aaaall the way up in Finland is Erkki Juhonpoika  

   Sources:  

   Willem de Blécourt, ‘The Differentiated Werewolf: An Introduction to Cluster Methodology’, Werewolf Histories (2015), pg 7  

   Gábor Klaniczay, Bengt Ankerloo & Gustav Henningson (ed.), ‘Hungary: The Accusations and the Universe of Popular Magic’, Early Modern European Witchcraft: Centres and Peripheries (1993) pg 254, footnote 122  

   Elmar Lorey, ‘Werwolfprozesse in der Frühen Neuzeit’, http://www.elmar-lorey.de/prozesse.htm (2000)  

   Maia Madar, Bengt Ankerloo & Gustav Henningson (ed.), ‘Estonia I: Werewolves and Poisoners’, Early Modern European Witchcraft: Centres and Peripheries (1993), pg 270-271  

   Merili Metsvah, Willem de Blécourt (ed.), ‘Estonian Werewolf History’, Werewolf Histories (2015), pg 210 & footnote 25  

   Rudolf Winkler, ‘Uber Hexenwahn und Hexenprozesse in Estland wahrend der Schwedenherrschaft’, Baltische Monatsschrift, 67 (1909), pg 333-4