#fooledbyrandomness

[epicforwards]

"Difficulty is what wakes up the genius."

-- Nassim Nicholas Taleb

[gpstudios]

Embracing Uncertainty – Insights from Chapter 13 of "Fooled by Randomness"

In Chapter 13 of Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s “Fooled by Randomness,” titled “A Mathematical Meditation on Epistemology,” Taleb takes a deep dive into the concept of uncertainty and how we navigate a world dominated by randomness. This chapter is a reflection on the limits of human knowledge and the importance of humility when dealing with unpredictable events. Taleb argues that accepting uncertainty…

[theramifications]

Outside of this very specialized bookmaker-style profession, to be honest, I am unable to answer the question of who's lucky or unlucky. I can tell that person A seems less lucky than person B, but the confidence in such knowledge can be so weak as to be meaningless. I prefer to remain a skeptic. People frequently misinterpret my opinion. I never said that every rich man is an idiot and every unsuccessful person unlucky, only that in the absence of much additional information, it is preferable to reserve one's judgment.

It is safer.

Pg171 FooledByRandomness

[bigphil1983-blog]

You only live once folks #risk #iso #riskmanagement #i #motivation #money #riskassessment #success #entrepreneur #safety #training #security #cybersecurity #probability #love #business #bedofprocrustes #quote #fooledbyrandomness #nntaleb #antifragile #nassimnicholastaleb #nassimtaleb #randomness #blackswan #modernstoic #quoteoflife #skininthegame #stoics #quotes (at Northern Ireland) https://www.instagram.com/p/B8yGZ5Jhy9H/?igshid=10xlcv2ovapm0

[jumpropeveteran]

"Wind extinguishes a candle and energizes a fire. Likewise with randomness, uncertainty, chaos: you want to use them, not hide from them. You want to be the fire and wish for the wind." Nassim Taleb, "Antifragile" #nassimtaleb #antifragile #blackswan #fooledbyrandomness #brilliantquotes #discipline #jumprope #antifragility #detachment #jumpropetofreedom (at Hopewell, Virginia) https://www.instagram.com/p/B7W_Z2RFtZ5/?igshid=1uevi0bh5jq8l

[jasaupdateandroid]

random pt.3

It takes a huge investment in introspection to learn that the thirty or more hours spent “studying” the news last month neither had any predictive ability during your activities of that month nor did it impact your current knowledge of the world. This problem is similar to the weakness in our ability to correct for past errors: Like a health club membership taken out to satisfy a New Year’s resolution, people often think that it will surely be the next batch of news that will really make a difference to their understanding of things”

Over a short time increment, one observes the variability of the portfolio, not the returns. In other words, one sees the variance, little else.

[essentiallystoic]

The God Abandons Antony

When suddenly, at midnight, you hear an invisible procession going by with exquisite music, voices, don’t mourn your luck that’s failing now, work gone wrong, your plans all proving deceptive—don’t mourn them uselessly. As one long prepared, and graced with courage, say goodbye to her, the Alexandria that is leaving. Above all, don’t fool yourself, don’t say it was a dream, your ears deceived you: don’t degrade yourself with empty hopes like these. As one long prepared, and graced with courage, as is right for you who proved worthy of this kind of city, go firmly to the window and listen with deep emotion, but not with the whining, the pleas of a coward; listen—your final delectation—to the voices, to the exquisite music of that strange procession, and say goodbye to her, to the Alexandria you are losing. - Constantine P. Kavafis

If a stoic were to visit us, he would fell represented by the previous poem. It is about Mark Antony, who has just lost the battle against octavius and was forsaken by Bacchus, the god who until then had proteced him. The poem addresses Antony, now defeated and betrayed (according to legend even his horse deserted him.I first leaned about this poem in the book "fooled by randomness" by Nassim Taleb

[gpstudios]

Blog Post: The Role of Fate and Randomness – Insights from Chapter 12 of "Fooled by Randomness"

In Chapter 12 of Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s “Fooled by Randomness,” titled “Bacchus Abandons Antony,” Taleb delves into the complex relationship between fate, randomness, and human perception. This chapter explores how we often attribute outcomes to fate or destiny, while in reality, many of these outcomes are heavily influenced by random events and chance. Taleb uses historical and personal…

[gpstudios]

Blog Post: The Problem of Silent Evidence – Insights from Chapter 11 of "Fooled by Randomness"

In Chapter 11 of Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s “Fooled by Randomness,” titled “Randomness and Our Mind – We Are Probability Blind,” Taleb delves into a concept he calls “silent evidence.” This chapter explores how our understanding of history, success, and failure is often distorted because we only see the survivors—the people and outcomes that made it through—while the countless others who didn’t…

[gpstudios]

Blog Post: Nonlinearities and the Unexpected – Insights from Chapter 10 of "Fooled by Randomness"

In Chapter 10 of Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s “Fooled by Randomness,” titled “Loser Takes All – On the Nonlinearities of Life,” the focus shifts to the concept of nonlinearities and how small changes or events can lead to disproportionate outcomes. Taleb challenges the linear thinking that often dominates our approach to understanding the world, emphasizing instead the unpredictable and often chaotic…

[gpstudios]

Blog Post: Navigating the Pitfalls of Behavioral Biases and Unpredictability – Insights from Chapter 9 of "Fooled by Randomness"

Chapter 9 of "Fooled by Randomness" delves into how behavioral biases, overconfidence, and the unpredictability of life impact our decisions. Learn to navigate uncertainty with caution and humility.

In Chapter 9 of Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s “Fooled by Randomness,” the focus shifts to the challenges of decision-making in a world dominated by unpredictability and uncertainty. This chapter, titled “It is Easier to Buy and Sell than Fry an Egg,” delves into how cognitive biases, over-reliance on models, and the underestimation of luck can lead to flawed judgments and poor decisions, especially in…

[gpstudios]

Blog Post: The Misleading Power of Overconfidence and Illusory Patterns – Insights from Chapter 8 of "Fooled by Randomness"

Explore Chapter 8 of "Fooled by Randomness," where Nassim Taleb reveals how overconfidence and false pattern recognition can mislead us, especially in random environments like financial markets.

As we continue our journey through Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s “Fooled by Randomness,” Chapter 8 explores the interplay between overconfidence, pattern recognition, and the role of luck in shaping outcomes. Titled “Too Many Millionaires Next Door,” this chapter delves into how our tendency to see patterns and attribute success to skill can lead us astray, particularly in environments dominated by…

[gpstudios]

Blog Post: The Problem of Induction – Insights from Chapter 7 of "Fooled by Randomness"

Chapter 7 of "Fooled by Randomness" explores the limitations of inductive reasoning and the risks of relying on past experiences to predict the future. Learn how to navigate life's unpredictability and avoid being blindsided by Black Swan events.

In Chapter 7 of “Fooled by Randomness,” titled “The Problem of Induction,” Nassim Nicholas Taleb explores the limitations and dangers of relying on inductive reasoning to understand the world. Induction, a fundamental part of human reasoning, involves making generalizations based on specific observations. While this approach can be useful, Taleb highlights its pitfalls, particularly when it comes…

[gpstudios]

Blog Post: Skewness, Asymmetry, and the Unpredictability of Life – Insights from Chapter 6 of "Fooled by Randomness"

Explore Chapter 6 of "Fooled by Randomness," where Nassim Taleb unpacks the concepts of skewness and asymmetry in random events. Learn how these imbalances affect our understanding of risk and decision-making.

As we continue our exploration of Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s “Fooled by Randomness,” Chapter 6 introduces us to the concepts of skewness and asymmetry in random events. Titled “Skewness and Asymmetry,” this chapter dives into how these statistical properties affect our understanding of probability and risk. Taleb argues that many aspects of life, particularly in finance, are not evenly distributed…

[gpstudios]

Blog Post: Survivorship Bias and the Illusion of Success – Insights from Chapter 5 of "Fooled by Randomness"

"Discover how survivorship bias and the illusion of skill distort our understanding of success in Chapter 5 of #FooledByRandomness by Nassim Taleb. Embrace the role of chance! #BookReview #CognitiveBiases #Randomness"

Welcome back to our exploration of Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s “Fooled by Randomness.” In Chapter 5, titled “Survival of the Least Fit – Can Evolution be Fooled by Randomness?” Taleb delves into the concept of survivorship bias and its impact on our perception of success and failure. This chapter challenges the conventional wisdom that success is solely due to skill and effort, highlighting the…

[gpstudios]

Blog Post: Intellectual Traps and Misinterpretation of Randomness – Insights from Chapter 4 of "Fooled by Randomness"

Discover how even the brightest minds can be misled by randomness and overconfidence in Chapter 4 of "Fooled by Randomness" by Nassim Taleb. Learn to navigate intellectual traps and embrace humility.

Welcome back to our exploration of Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s “Fooled by Randomness.” In Chapter 4, titled “Randomness, Nonsense, and the Scientific Intelligentsia,” Taleb dives into how even highly educated individuals can be misled by randomness and fall prey to cognitive biases. This chapter highlights the limitations of human understanding and the pitfalls of overconfidence in interpreting…