#Probability

[unbfacts]

In 2003, a retired Michigan man used math to exploit a lottery loophole in the WinFall game. By buying tickets in bulk during "rolldowns," he and his wife legally won about $26 million over several years.

[prokopetz]

Sometimes reading a new indie RPG gives you an insight into the principles of game design you'd have never arrived at on your own.

Sometimes reading a new indie RPG gives you a sum-of-2dX lookup table with its entries in alphabetical order.

[nerdicorntheshipper]

What the fairy vs. walrus thing demonstration to me is that humans are a lot more willing to accept an impossible event over an improbable one.

You see, for an event you believe to be impossible to happen, you must be wrong about it's impossibility. It's not easy to accept that you are wrong about the fundamental nature of reality. But once you do, you suddenly find yourself in a world where it makes sense for the impossible event to occur.

When it comes to improbable events, however, Because our brains are bad at processing probability, we treat improbable events like impossible ones, with one key distinction. An improbable event occurring doesn't disprove it's improbability. There is no re-framing that makes a walrus at your door make sense. you're just stuck grappling with an improbable event

[thefugitivesaint]

Ellan Raskin (1928-1984), ''Probability - The Science of Chance'' by Arthur G. Razzell, 1967

[tumbler-polls]

[wronghands1]

[stone-cold-groove]

Mathematics: The Story of Numbers, Symbols and Space. The Golden Library of Knowledge - 1958.

[pandemic-info]

We often hear the risk of death or disability associated with COVID described as being “low” or “high.” Confusingly, different people can respond to the same number with very different qualifiers. Just how risky is COVID compared to other risks in our lives? We dig into that in this article.

...

Statistically, you can expect to run with the bulls 18 times before your cumulative risk of injury exceeds 50%. Beyond that point, the odds begin to stack against you. It takes 77 excursions before you can be 95% confident that you will get injured.

For such a seemingly dangerous sport, those numbers aren’t that bad. The per-infection chance of developing symptomatic Long COVID is 14.6% according to Statistics Canada. With these numbers, you can get infected with SARS-Cov-2 4 times before your risk of Long COVID approaches a 50/50 chance. After 19 infections, your cumulative risk approaches near certainty at 95%.

We would rather run with the bulls.

[licaonia]

♠️_Non riesco a non amare.

O tutto o niente.

Bottiglia vuota, bicchiere pieno.

Il problema è che trovo solo bicchieri già pieni, rotti o ancora nella confezione.

E la mia bottiglia continua a riempirsi e l’amore a cercare una via di fuga.

Pranzo 🖤🌹

©️Licaonia Lupe

[mikufunfacts]

can miku spell resteraunt ? cause i cant

miku fun fact #382

miku can spell most anything! the real question is: WILL she?

[chica-de-costa]

reply to @bini-kei (this is not hate, i purely have statistics to display)

[Additional information; i am very passionate about statistics and mathematics, this is purely a chance for me to further engage this, provide information, and prove a point. All my data is drawn from Wikipedia and UCLA statistics]

I am using the term "Queer" as someone who falls under the LGBT+ umbrella, rather than as a synonym for "weird" by Oxford definition.

--

The original post made stated as so;

"To the person who said that making all the pjo characters queer is unrealistic:

Making all of them straight is unrealistic too"

My contradicting point is as following;

It is not unrealistic, but rather the chances of the majority of the characters being queer in some form goes against most statistics.

I am not homophobic, i just need an opportunity to talk about data and statistics and debate in some way. I really love statistics and probability.

--

Gallup 2014 statistics state that 4.5% of adult-americans identify as queer in some way, and general surveys spanning over multiple years from western cultures "find, on average, that about 93% of men and 87% of women identify as completely heterosexual".

Now this is purely in western culture, but to narrow down the statistics to make this as accurate as possible, i will draw data from individual states and countries, and mainly focus on the 7 + Nico and Will.

Going in alphabetical order;

Annabeth Chase.

The Riordan wiki states that she is originally from Virgina with a swedish background, but i will focus on her place of origin being Virgina now.

5.9% of adults in Virgina identify as queer, meaning that statistically, the chances of Annabeth being queer, are 5.9%.

The population of Virgina is 8,624,511 as of 2022, though the data was collected in 2021, meaning it is not outdated.

5.9% of 8,624,511 ≈ 50,8846

Frank Zangh

A survey conducted by SC [statistics Canada] in 2014 stated that 4% of the adult population in canada identified as queer in some way - or "LGBT" as stated in the survey.

This means that the chances of Frank being queer are 4%.

To spare you time, these are all the data collected (holding Nico and Hazel for purposes i will explain)

Annabeth Chase - 5,9% Frank Zangh - 4% Jason/Thalia Grace - 9.3% Leo Valdez - 5.1% Percy Jackson - 5.5% Piper Mclean - 6% Will Solace - 5.1%

Now since both Hazel and Nico are from the 1930's - 1940's, gathering data from that period of time was very difficult. Little to no data was collected from this period of time as Homosexual marriages and/or activities were either highly discouraged, unrecognised, or banned in the majority of places (with the exception of the Faroe islands, Greenland, Sweden, Poland, Etc.)

With modern data it would state as following;

Hazel Levesque - 5.7% Nico Di Angelo - 2.4% (with some contradictions)

Ultimately, adding all of these changes together give us 5,4%

Which gives us the average percentage for the chances of the desired outcome, and i will use this cause Lord i am so tired of all of these equations i've been doing - you have no idea.

Now, the chances of every each of the 9 being queer, is approximately

0.0000000073%.

[skill7spark04]

Hitchiker's guide to the Galaxy asks an important question:

go ahead, get your life, the universe and everything out of the way, we all know it's 42. now down to business: what if the universe actually runs on Improbability rather than probability? think for a moment. each movement you make has a certain chance to happen. each quark has a chance to move a certain way. each atom has a chance to randomly disassemble. everything has a chance, a percent chance, for any action imaginable to happen, and there are no zero percent answers. in a world of improbability, the opposite would be true. the low chance answers would happen first, and "normalcy" would be rare. at one moment the universe could blink into nothing, turn itself inside out, turn back on, explode and implode simultaneously, form into the shape of a giraffe, atoms become cube shaped, time inverts where it's distance * Speed instead of Distance/Speed, leading to maddening results, or even, as improbable as it seems: mankind's existence in a world where everything is constantly experiencing the least likely things to happen in paced out succession. everything happens because it has a probability to happen. the world revolves around this idea. there's always a .1 * 10^-432nd chance you spontaneously combust from energy overconsumption. in a world of improbability, unreasonability trumps reason. the wildest scenarios are beyond human perception and confounding. after all, if you look at what The Heart of Gold does, it simply narrows down the probability of being in a specific place at a specific time working backwards. through messing with improbability, we gain the ability to teleport across space and time. it doesn't matter when, where, or how we go. thank God the Heart of Gold has an end radius. because if it affected the entire universe, all life would be doomed to a world of improbability. and I'd probably be a butt ugly Vogon with a pension for a lugnut plantation and a mortgage on some random dude's soul. because while Im lucky, when Im not lucky, I'm REALLY unlucky.

[prokopetz]

The tabletop game designer's true sorrow: when the results distribution that's most conducive to engaging play is unaesthetic.

[friendlydecapod]

Long-term cannabis users' IQs declined by 5.5 points on average from childhood, and there were deficits in learning and processing speed compared to people that did not use cannabis. The more frequently an individual used cannabis, the greater the resulting cognitive impairment, suggesting a potential causative link. The study also found that people who knew these long-term cannabis users well observed that they had developed memory and attention problems. The above findings persisted even when the study authors controlled for factors such as dependence on other drugs, childhood socioeconomic status, or baseline childhood intelligence.

[itsallreallythere]