Black Lion Keys 2: Probability Boogaloo
We've been here before but now I am doing all the living stories and expansion, not including SoTO cause it's not done yet <3
(also redid some things I thought were off about my original)
The wiki says there's a 30% chance of getting a key for maps but from my own searching of other peoples experiences, it seems closer to 25%, so i've gone with that for the sake of ease!
So what are the chances of you getting a black lion key from every map from the expansions?
And what's the chance of getting a key from every single possible map?
Let's explore, shall we?
First note, no season 1! There's only Southsun Cove added with that and you can't get a key from it! Sorry Scarlet :(
Second note, any errors about jumping puzzles are because I was checking the list on the wiki! Sorry if any were missed!
LWS2: Glint's Prophecy
While there are 8 story parts there were only 2 maps added, there's not a huge amount to go over here.
There are 8 waypoints, 0 renown hearts, 40 points of interest, 11 hero points, 13 vistas, and 2 jumping puzzles!
You've got a 6.25% chance of getting keys from both maps! Which is by far the highest out of everything I'm about to go over.
Heart Of Thorns
The first expansion to Guild Wars 2, I remember pre-ordering this! Introducing raids, the revenant, and elite specialisations!
There are 4 maps that make up the HoT part of The Heart Of Maguuma, containing 32 waypoints, 0 renown hearts, 92 points of interest, 40 hero points, 25 vistas, and 5 jumping puzzles!
You have a 0.390625% chance of getting a key from every map!
LWS3: Glint's Legacy
This has 6 story parts and a new map for each one! Bloodstone Fen is a map used for key farming, as it has no renown hearts and very few things to get for map completion.
The 6 maps contain 17 waypoints, 24 renown hearts, 98 points of interest, 0 hero points, 33 vistas, and 3 jumping puzzles!
You have a 0.02441406% chance of getting a key from every map!
Path of Fire
The second expansion, bringing in mounts and more elite specs! It also brought in 3 new raid wings!
There are 5 maps and radically fewer waypoints comparatively, with only 23! There are 27 renown hearts, 166 points of interest, 29 hero points, 51 vistas, and 0 jumping puzzles!
You have a 0.09765625% chance of getting a key from every map!
LWS4: Rise of Kralkatorrik
A lot of people cite this living story as their favourite part of gw2 story! It brought in 2 new mounts, the roller beetle and the skyscale!
There are 6 maps here, containing 19 waypoints, 19 renown hearts, 158 points of interest, 0 hero points, 36 vistas, and 1 jumping puzzle!
You have a 0.02441406% chance of getting a key from every map!
LWS5: Icebrood Saga
A living story I never actually finished and still giggle at the shortening of its name. It brought in 3 very large maps!
These maps contain 7 waypoints, 0 renown hearts, 97 points of interest, 0 hero points, 34 vistas, and 1 jumping puzzle.
You have a 1.5625% chance of getting a key for every map!
End Of Dragons
The third expansion that brought an end to a decade long storyline! Introducing jadebots, skiffs, the siege turtle and yet more elite specs!
This expansion brought in 5 maps, including the later added Gyala Delve!
These contain 24 waypoints, 9 renown hearts, a staggering 196 points of interest, 30 hero points, 23 vistas, and 2 jumping puzzles!
You have a 0.09765625% chance of getting a key for every map!
Conclusion
It's nigh on impossible to get keys for every map but it is very fun to think about!
Getting a key from every map from every living story and expansion is a 2.1684039x10^-17% chance!
In non standard form this is 0.000000000000000021684039%
That's absolutely tiny!
But for every single map you could possible get a key on? How tiny would that be?
It would be a 1.92592916x10^-32% chance.
Written out of standard of form that number looks like this.
0.0000000000000000000000000000000192592916%
I cannot even think of what to compare this to.
A single amu (atomic mass unit) or dalton is 1.66x10^-24 grams.
This probablity is even tinier than that.
It's unlikely that this will ever happen but what an incredible occurence it would be if it ever did. An act of pure and absolute luck.
If you read this far, thank you for reading my ramblings <3
And I wish you all luck getting black lion keys.
30 notes
·
View notes
Just realizes that you'd probably love the roller beetle mount in gw2.
They go fast. They spin. People race on these bad boys.
Theyre so cute.
Look at them. Adorable.
AWWW WHAT!!!!!! I WANT ONE IRL NOW..
8 notes
·
View notes
My mount keybinds in GW2 make total sense and are easy to remember:
Raptor - V - Vraptor (it's a silent V)
Springer - B - BNUUY
Skimmer - N - Not today, water (or: Nautical time!)
Jackal - K - Kanine, duh
Griffon - < - ...It kinda looks like a beak???
Roller Beetle - L - Let's go FAST!
12 notes
·
View notes
In gw2 they should renovate Tyria with roads and roller beetles have to stay properly in lanes and obey traffic rules and parallel park. If you want to get to the overworld meta on time you have to leave the home instance 30 minutes early. I’m stuck in real life traffic right now and I just think there should be more negativity in the world
96 notes
·
View notes