#i used to play jump then fall on february 2022 so much when working on a final project for school

[catastrxblues]

did they just play JUMP THEN FALL on the radio??????

[calm-and-wine]

(I’ll give you) the best years

part I (moodboard)

Hello lovely people! Here is the start of a little drabble series about Nulu’s future (you can catch up on Down the line here). The biggest thank you to Anna @silverrank​ for editing and giving the best tips. Please come talk to me about those two anytime of day or night!

April 2022

“My mum’s been busting my ass with questions about the wedding. She’d love to help us plan things,” Niall said between bites of his breakfast.

They were in his house in LA, Niall had been putting finishing touches on his new album, while Lucy had a week off before going to Europe for clay season.

“Umm sure, I mean I’d love to have her help, but it’s not like we have a date set or anything. We haven’t even really talked about what we want it to be like.”

They had been engaged for a few months, but had yet to breach the topic of their wedding at all. Lucy quite enjoyed this phase of their relationship. Of course she wanted to take the relationship to the next level - hence the engagement - but after Australian Open, they hadn't spent more than two weeks together. The worst part of it was that those two weeks hadn't even been consecutive, thanks to Niall being busy recording his album and Lucy with playing.

“I know. But I think she’s just excited. And she assured me she doesn’t want to make decisions for us, just help with the organisation, since we’re both busy.”

“She’s honestly the sweetest soul. I love your mum.” Lucy sighed longingly, because she really did; Maura was an angel who had welcomed Lucy into the family with open arms, even when they hadn’t been dating that long. Because of that, she made a mental note to call her, as it’d been too long since their last chat. “Well, how about September next year? I could probably take a bit of a time off after US Open, skip a couple tournaments. I mean, it’s the end of the season anyway…”

“I’m gonna be done with touring by the end of July, so yeah, that’d work. Did you have a location in mind?”

“London,” Lucy said without a second of hesitation

“Really?” Niall looked at her surprised. “No destination wedding? Like a beach or something?”

“Nope,” she said, shaking her head. “London’s home and I’d love to do it somewhere there. Would you prefer somewhere abroad?”

“No, London’s good. I would be okay with a destination wedding, but it would be a pain in the ass with all the guests flying in and stuff. And some people wouldn’t come, so that would be a shame. Look at us, we already have a venue and a date!” Niall said with a big smile on his face. Apparently planning a wedding wasn’t that hard, all you had to do is have a chat with your partner and voila, everything was set!

Lucy laughed. “We do not have a date and a venue, we have a month and a whole city area.”

“Okay, party pooper.” Niall stuck his tongue out at her. “What about people? How many are you thinking?”

“I don’t know, about a hundred?”

A concentrated frown made Niall’s eyebrows scrunch together. “A hundred people for each of us? I guess I could make it work…”

Lucy made a face. “I meant a hundred altogether, actually.”

Niall looked at her with surprise. “Wait, what? A hundred people total?”

“Well, yeah. How many were you thinking?” Now Lucy was the one confused.

“I don’t know, around three hundred or something,” Niall mumbled, picking at his food like he was embarrassed.

“Are you serious? I wouldn’t know even half of them!” Lucy raised her brows and waited for Niall to raise his head, but when he did, he just shrugged. Lucy sighed. “And you wouldn’t even have enough time to talk to three hundred people.”

“So you want a small wedding, then?” he said after a minute.

“Yeah,” she admitted. “I mean, I’d rather have fun with the people that are closest to us than spend half the night wondering if I talked to everyone and if no one feels left out or annoyed I’m not giving them attention.”

Niall hummed, but stayed silent for a moment, thinking it over. “Maybe you’re right. I think we should start making a list, see how many people we come up with.” He had his phone in his hand in a second, ready to type. “What?” he asked, when he looked up at Lucy only to see a wide smile and bright eyes.

She shook her head slightly, but the smile wouldn't leave her face. ���It just kinda hit me that we’re really doing this. We’re actually getting married.”

“Are you regretting it already?” he asked with raised brows, but with a smile that matched hers.

“No, but I might, if you actually want to invite three hundred people.”

Niall’s laughter filled the place and she joined him, thinking that she might even endure a night in the company of three hundred people or more, if it meant hearing that laugh and making a man she loved happy.

February 2023

Lucy went dress shopping with her mum, Niall’s mum, Laura, Mia and Natalia. The latter was Mia’s girlfriend of almost a year. Lucy always had limited time in London, so instead of going to a variety of different stores, she looked through an online catalogue of the one they were in, now presenting the five dresses she’d chosen. The first one had gotten mixed reactions from her company, so it was a no. The second was beautiful, but Lucy found the narrow, mermaid style bottom of the dress a little too constricting.

The minute she put on the third dress, Lucy knew her mum wouldn’t like it. And she was proved right as soon as the dressing room’s door opened.

“Oh no, this one brings too much attention to your arms and shoulders and you don’t want that, honey,” said Megan right away.

Lucy didn’t even bother making her way to the mirror in the room, nor did she grace her mum with a response. They’d been through similar situations so many times she’d lost count. The rest of her help committee was rendered silent and she didn’t want to make the atmosphere even more awkward, so she just went and changed into dress number four, losing hope of actually finding one everyone would like, herself especially.

Two out of the pre-picked dresses were nice, the first and fourth one, but none was amazing. Not one made Lucy go, ‘Wow’. Maybe she just expected too much, she always thought that she would just know, she would try it on and just feel that it’s the right one. She wanted to fall in love with her wedding dress; was that too much to ask?

“Let’s maybe look around for a bit? Maybe something will catch your eye, it’s always a bit different than browsing online.” Mia stood up as soon as she saw her cousin’s disheartened expression after looking at her reflection in the last dress.

Lucy smiled with gratitude before stepping down and heading towards the racks full of all types of wedding dresses. The other women joined them, spreading around the room to look through the garments. The group worked quietly, the main sound in the room being the scraping of hangers and background music. Lucy’s attention was brought to whoever called her name to show her one of the dresses, but she mostly replied with a shake of her head. Diana, the shop assistant, was observing the scene, ready to bring whatever was needed or take a dress to wait for Lucy in the changing room.

“What about this one?” Natalia spoke up for the first time since they started looking. Lucy looked up, and she felt her eyes instantly starting to sparkle when she looked at the dress in Natalia’s hands. It was so beautiful and delicate, breathtaking, yet not too much, all at once. She was scared to like it too much right away, before even trying it on, but the thought that this dress might be the one made her heart do a little jump.

“Yeah, I kinda love it.” She gave Nat a wide smile before turning to Diana. “Do you have my size?”

~~~~

After the visit in the bridal shop, Lucy, her mum, Maura and Mia went to lunch. Laura had a meeting about one of her new work projects, while Natalia had a photoshoot location to look at. It was nice to actually spend time with her family and friends and Lucy was relieved that most of their conversation topics weren’t about her wedding. Obviously she was excited about the whole thing, but she had been the centre of attention all morning and it was nice to get away from the spotlight a bit.

After lunch she had a session with her psychologist. They’d been working together for a few years now to make sure she had the right mentality on court, as well as helping with general mental health. As soon as the appointment was over, she had a proper training session with her coach scheduled.

It had been a good day, but when evening came, she was more than happy to be back home, enjoying a quiet evening with a steaming mug of tea and catching up on some tv shows. And when her phone finally rang with an incoming facetime call, she didn’t even try to contain her growing smile. She loved being back in London, but it was always a bit bittersweet if Niall wasn’t around. It didn’t feel completely like home.

“Hi, love.” Niall’s smiling face filled her screen and her heart instantly warmed.

“Hey. Are you leaving for the venue soon?” She could see he was still in his hotel room, shirtless as always and it looked like his hair was wet. He had a show tonight, though - in Chicago if she remembered correctly - so he should be heading out soon.

“Yeah, but I wanted to chat with you for a bit before. Did you have a good day?” He was lounging on his bed, his attention focused solely on Lucy. It was one of the things she loved most about him, especially because sometimes he found it quite hard to focus on one thing, but never when he talked to her.

“Really nice day. It was so good to see everyone and spend time together. I do miss you, though.” She pouted, an action Niall mirrored.

“I miss you, too, Lulu. I’m counting down the days for that week and a half together before clay.” He smiled sadly. They had a few small visits planned, but it was usually for two or three days; they had to wait until the beginning of April for a longer visit.

“48 days,” she said with a smile; she had an app counting the days.

As if to change the subject before the mood became too sad, Niall asked, “How was the dress-hunt?”

“Terrible, at first,” Lucy laughed. “But it got better.”

“I heard your mum made some comments…” Niall said, a bit tentatively.

“Did Maura tell you that?” Lucy asked, at which he nodded. “Yeah, she hates my arms and shoulders, but what else is new. Well, those arms and shoulders got me a spot in the top 10 best female servers for a few years now, so I really don’t care if my mum thinks they’re not feminine enough.”

“I love you, Lulu,” Niall said with a fond look in his eyes. She was appreciative that those were the words that left his mouth, not that she was beautiful; somehow it made her feel better and it was like he knew she didn’t really need that boost of confidence.

“I love you too, baby.” They stared at each other through the screen for a while, giving each other gentle smiles and supporting looks. “I hope Maura didn’t have a terrible time today.” She had to ask... well, indirectly, because she always had this creeping fear that maybe people didn’t enjoy her company as much as she enjoyed theirs. And with her mum making it awkward for a bit and the dress search taking longer than expected, she’d hate to think that maybe Niall’s mum became irritated at some point or would rather spend her time differently.

“Don’t be silly,” Niall said instantly. “She called me today as soon as I’d woken up and wouldn’t shut up about how great you are and how lucky I am to be marrying you, like I didn’t know already. You know she adores you and she felt very honored that you wanted her there. I’m pretty sure she actually texted me the minute you invited her.”

Lucy laughed. “That woman is so cute. Did she tell you about the dress?”

“Oh, you found the dress?” Something in Niall's tone made Lucy raise her eyebrows. A beat of silence followed, before Niall broke it with a sigh. “Well, she didn’t say much, refused to give me even the smallest description, but she did say you look absolutely stunning in it. She also said I’m gonna be completely speechless when I see you in it. I might not be able to say ‘I do’ if that’s the case. Do you think a nod will do?”

Lucy looked at him very unamused, while he cackled to himself. “Why, oh why, have I agreed to marry an idiot?” she asked.

“Oh please, you love my jokes. You think I’m hilarious.”

“I don’t think there’s a person on this planet who’d ever use that word to describe you,” she retorted, though without heat or malice.

They just leveled each other with a daring look until Lucy broke and started laughing, with Niall following suit.

“I really can’t wait to marry you, Lulu,” he said when they calmed down, with smiles still painted on both their faces. “Why haven’t we decided to elope?”

She snickered at that. “May I remind you that not so long ago, you actually wanted a wedding for three hundred people?” She raised her brow daringly, at which he laughed and shook his head.

“Well, good thing I’m marrying such a smart woman; at least she’ll always get my head on straight.”

Lucy let out a soft chuckle and silence engulfed them for a split moment before another thought hit her. “Oh, I told Mia we’re gonna come do the tasting in the week after Wimbledon, she said Monday would be best, cause they’re closed then, so they’d just come in for a few hours for us. You’ll be back then, right?”

Mia was a sous chef at one of the best restaurants in London, so of course they wanted to hire that team for their wedding. Obviously Mia herself wouldn’t be working as she was the maid of honour, but her colleagues would be just fine without her watchful eye.

“Yup, I’m flying back Sunday afternoon, shouldn’t be home too late, so Monday works for me.” Lucy nodded while Niall took a minute to consider something before speaking again. “I’m going to sound like a dick, I know, but is it extremely awful that I kinda hope you won’t become a Wimbledon champion this year?” he asked sheepishly.

She wasn’t offended at all, just looked at him softly, with a little tilt of her head. It just so happened that he was playing this tour’s last concert the day of the women's final at Wimbledon.

“Well, a part of me is kinda hoping I’ll lose early on, so I can come see you at least for the last show,” she said. “Maybe even a couple, if I lose in the first week.”

They shared a look with which they tried to transpire an unspoken message of ‘I miss you’ and ‘I love you’. This was their normal, not being able to experience all of the big moments together, having to make tough choices, knowing when you could be selfish and when to put the relationship first. Some may think that was too much trouble, but through their years together they learned to navigate it somehow. Sure, they still made mistakes and were torn between decisions, but as cliche as it sounded, communication was the key. And neither of them would ever exchange their relationship for something easier. After all, Lucy was a firm believer of working hard on things to truly earn them. And working on her partnership with Niall might actually be the most pleasurable work ever.

September 2023

“Man, you’re actually getting married, that’s so wild!” said Mully clasping a hand on Niall’s shoulder with a big smile on his face. “I mean, it feels like you two has been together forever, so no one really had a doubt that you’d be endgame, but just… You’re actually settling down, that’s crazy.”

“You’re one to talk… Should I remind you that you proposed to Jordan three months ago?”

“Touché,” Sean laughed.

“Can you go see how everything's going out there? And get me some water, please,” Niall said to his childhood friend, mostly because he wanted a minute to talk to his father.

“I’m on it.” Mully gave a salute and left the room with a laugh.

The rest of his groomsmen were out there as well, making sure their partners and plus ones didn’t feel abandoned and giving Niall a moment to breathe.

“Why are you so nervous, son? I thought you were a million percent sure she’s the one,” said Bobby, noticing Niall’s bouncing knee and unfocused gaze.

“I am, I mean I’ve never even been in love like that. I want to spend my life with Lulu, of course I do, but, like, what if things don’t work out? What if we actually won’t last? How can I know that?” he asked.

He loved Lucy with his whole heart and soul, he’d never been more sure about anything, and he knew she felt the same way about him. But some part of him was worried, because sometimes things just didn’t work out, right? Things happened and feelings could change. He was sure his parents were in love when they got married, yet their marriage didn’t last. And so did so many others. Maybe love wasn’t everything and marriage wasn’t the road they should take? Just thinking about losing Lulu was making his insides churn and if he focused on it for too long, he might just throw up his breakfast. 

“Niall.” Bobby came closer and looked at him with a soft, but sure look. “There are simply no guarantees. That’s just life. But let me tell you that I don’t think I’ve ever seen a relationship as strong as yours, or two people so determined to make it work, just because of the love they have for each other. Sure, life will throw all kinds of troubles at you, but I think you’ve worked through a lot of the hurdles already. As long as you’ll stay like this, honest and open and wanting to make it work, you’ll be fine. I’m pretty sure of this.”

Niall looked at him with glazed eyes. His father wasn’t one for inspirational speeches like that, which made it even more meaningful.

“And I hope you know how proud we are of you, me and your mum. For everything you’ve done and what a beautiful life you’ve built.”

“Thanks, dad,” he said, enveloping Bobby in a tight hug.

He didn’t doubt Lucy and their love, he doubted life and happy endings. He doubted just how much goodness and happiness one could get from the universe. His life had thrown so many good things his way already, there was so much luck involved in all of his successes, and he just felt that someday it’d have to turn around and some gloom would take over. And maybe not seeing Lucy since yesterday and spending the night without her brought a bit of self-consciousness and worry. After all, she was usually his voice of reason. They lifted each other up. And deep down he knew it’d always be like that. They wouldn’t let each other fall, and together they wouldn’t hit the ground, because there would always be one to hold the other up.

~~

“I need to see Niall,” Lucy said, when her hair was finally perfectly arranged and she was left in a room with her and Niall’s mums, Mia, Natalia and Laura, who were her bridal party.

“What?” asked Megan, brows drawn together in confusion. 

It was less than an hour until the start of the ceremony. Lucy hadn’t seen her soon to be husband since late afternoon yesterday, as they’d decided to follow that bit of tradition and spend the night apart, with him staying at home, while she was at the hotel with her parents and Mia. She was very much regretting that decision now. They’d texted and talked on the phone before falling asleep, but she still missed him, it was different knowing he was so close, yet they weren’t together. It didn’t feel right. And now, when she was so stressed, not about the whole marrying him thing, but just about the whole ceremony and having all eyes on her throughout the day. At least she was glad that they’ve managed to wrap up the guest list just under hundred and fifty people.

Her and Niall were not supposed to see each other before the big walk down the aisle, but she needed his presence to calm her nerves.

“Can you please ask him to come meet me?” she asked Maura.

She looked at her a bit surprised, but nodded and brought a small smile to her face, even though her eyes looked a little worried. “Of course, sweetheart.”

“Don’t worry, it’s nothing bad, I just need to see him,” Lucy assured before Maura left the room.

“We’ll give you a moment,” said Mia, squeezing Lucy’s shoulder as she passed, ushering everyone out of the room. Megan gave her an unnerved look, but left the room.

While waiting, she looked at herself in the mirror. She was wearing her perfect dress, her hair was done just the way she wanted, part of it pinned up and part left down in soft curls, her face adorned by quite delicate makeup. Everything was just the way she imagined, even better.

There was a quick knock on her door followed by a nervous, “Lulu?”.

She took a deep breath before saying “come in”.

Hearing that Lucy wanted to see him and then standing outside her door, Niall thought his heart might just beat out of his chest. But when he walked in and saw her, standing there, a mirror behind her, a soft glow coming from the window and lighting up all of her best features, he felt like his heart just left his chest. He felt nervous and suddenly calm at the same time. His mum had been right - he was very much speechless, because Lucy looked like a vision.

“Is, um, is everything alright?” he asked, searching for any signs of distress in her eyes.

“Yes, of course. I’m about to marry the most wonderful man in the whole world. I’m a bit nervous, though, and just needed to see you,” she said a little sheepishly. She hadn’t really thought about how it might look to Niall when his mum showed up and said his fiancée wanted to see him, hadn’t considered how panicked he might get.

He took a step closer, not being able to stand the distance between them any longer, especially since he was sure she wasn’t about to call the wedding off or anything like that. When he was close enough, he noticed her hands were shaking and instantly engulfed them in both of his.

“Nothing to be nervous about. It’s just people we know out there. And I’m gonna be there, waiting for you at the altar and then be by your side the whole time. Plus, I have to say, just… wow. You look so incredibly beautiful, Lulu. I knew you would, you always do, but this... this is just a different level. And knowing you’re gonna become my wife today, somehow it just makes you even more stunning.”

When she finally looked at him, her eyes were already starting to water. “You look incredibly handsome as well.” His face finally lit up with a big smile and she almost launched herself into his arms. “Can we share our vows now?” she asked quietly into his ear.

Out there, in front of everyone, they’d decided to go with the traditional vows, to try and not make each other cry. But they both wanted to do their own, special ones. It was agreed to exchange them sometime later, probably late at night, when the wedding festivities were over, but she didn’t want to wait. As they were standing in this small room, both ready, wrapped up in each other, she wanted to be his already. Even if it wouldn’t be officiated, she wanted to have that promise between them already. She wanted to walk down the aisle with his vows playing in her head. She needed the confidence that his words would give her, the reminder of his love and devotion.

“Of course, whatever you want, love,” he whispered. “Do you want me to start?” Even though he didn’t see her because of their embrace, he could feel her nod. He planted a soft kiss on her cheek, right by her ear, before slowly pulling away, but keeping his hands around her waist.

Lucy felt like her heart was about to beat out of her chest. It was fluttering around her ribcage, when she looked at the man in front of her, ready to soak up his every word. Even though her heartbeat might say differently, she wasn’t nervous.

“My Lulu,” Niall started, looking straight into her eyes. He’d use her full name out there for their proper vows, so now, as it was just the two of them, he really wanted to call her by his favourite nickname. “I promise to love and to cherish you every second of every day, no matter what’s going on or where we are, together or apart. I promise to not let you lose yourself, especially not in my own life and dreams. I promise to always be your number one fan and supporter, to always believe in you, always let you shine and remind you how bright you are. But most of all, I promise to be your partner, through thick and thin, no matter what life throws at us, to stand by your side, hold you tight and lift you up. I love you, Lulu and I promise to try to be the best husband possible.”

About halfway through his speech, Lucy’s eyes not only sparkled, but full on watered, tears eventually spilling down her cheeks. Niall quickly wiped them away with a soft smile and a look that said he’ll always be there to do just that. He didn’t even need to say it out loud, she already knew.

Before she started speaking, Lucy reached up on her tiptoes and planted a kiss right on his lips. “Niall, baby, I knew I should have gone first, cause you’re better at words than I am,” she started, at which he chuckled and squeezed her waist encouragingly. “I promise to always make sure you know how much I love you, through words and gestures, to always make you feel secure and confident, just like you do for me. I promise to always have your back, cause we are a team and together we can do anything. I promise to always try to understand you and consider your feelings. I promise to be open and honest, just like you want me to. I promise to never lose sight of how amazing you are and not let you to, either. I promise not to let you sacrifice yourself too much for me, even if you want to. I promise to make you laugh, just like you do with your stupid jokes, and to play with your hair and rub your back when you’re tired or can’t sleep. And I promise to always strive to be exactly what you need. Even though I can’t promise to be the perfect wife, I promise to try my hardest and always be the best for you.”

Just as she was saying the last sentence, a tear rolled down Niall’s left cheek, which she wiped with the tip of her finger, just like he’d done to her a few minutes earlier. She’d barely finished, when he pulled her closer and enveloped her in a tight hug while planting kisses all over her face and neck. This moment was just so blissful, they both wanted to stay in it forever.

Neither of them could even say how long they’d spent alone, after their vows they just stayed in each others’ embrace, sharing kisses every other second, inhaling one another, swaying back and forth on their feet, even though there was no music playing. They were wrapped up in their little bubble of love and excitement. Until there was a knock on the door.

“Please stop mingling in there, you’re supposed to get married in twenty minutes. I can’t believe you couldn’t even keep your hands off each other for one day.” Mia’s voice was slightly muffled through the doors, but her words were still clear. Niall and Lucy shared a shocked look, not even thinking of what anyone might think they were doing (they truly didn’t care), before erupting in laughter.

~~~~

When Lucy was coming back from the toilet, someone pulled her hand before she reached the main room. She turned her head to see it was her husband. He had a wicked smile on his face and put a finger to his lips as a signal to keep quiet, even though she was pretty sure no one would hear them over the loud music coming from the dancefloor anyway. He laced their fingers and led them into a corner of the hallway passed the kitchen.

Niall propped her against the wall, but put a hand around her waist to soften the hit.

“I’ve missed you,” he said, quietly bringing his body closer and leaning in to kiss her cheek before moving on to her neck.

Lucy let out a lovely laugh. It was a sound that he wanted to hear for the rest of his life. “We got married today, baby, we’ve been around each other for hours.” Despite her words, he kinda had a point. Sure, they were always together, holding hands or wrapping an arm around the waist to keep the other by their sides, but they were constantly around other people, listening to congratulations, well wishes and just making conversations with their guests. It was lovely, it was a part of the whole wedding ordeal, and it was their family and friends, who they were so happy to share this moment with, but she did want a minute alone with her husband as well.

“Yes, but I want you just for myself for a moment. You’ve been my wife for hours now and I’ve barely even kissed you. It’s a bit outrageous, don’t you think?” He whispered it all straight into her ear, nibbling on a skin once he was done.

She hummed. “Very much so” she agreed. She grabbed the back of his hair to pull him away from her neck and finally bring him in for a proper kiss. Both of them were hungry for it, their mouths working hurriedly, like anyone could interrupt them at any given moment, which was kind of true in this situation. Niall’s hands were rummaging around her dress, sneaking from around her ribcage to her waist and then travelling down and in this moment Lucy was both glad and mad at herself that her wedding gown was floor length, because she missed the warmth of his skin on her, even though this definitely wasn't the time and place to be doing that. She wanted to do nothing more but rake her fingers through his soft hair, but it was still perfectly styled and she didn’t want to ruin it, especially since it would probably create quite a buzz between the guests.

“Man, I can’t wait until the party’s over” he sighed, throwing his head back, when Lucy pulled away with a groan to force them both to catch their breath. “Is it really awful that I’m saying that about my own wedding?”

“Nah, I kinda feel the same right now,” she admitted with a giggle. At this moment, when they were sneaking around the party for a bit of a make out session, she felt like a teenager with butterflies in her stomach, not an adult with a husband. But there was a certain beauty in that, how Niall could make her feel giddy and excited with the simplest things, no matter how long they’d been together.

“Should we sneak off to the bathroom or something?” he asked with a glint in his eyes.

Lucy chuckled, knowing, well, hoping at least, that he wasn’t actually being serious. There was no way she was having sex with her husband for the first time in some filthy bathroom at their own wedding. Well, maybe not filthy, cause the whole place was very nice, but the sentiment was very much the same. It was not the place (nor time) to engage in marital sex. She and Niall had slept together too many times to count, but both of them wondered if this next time would be different, because of the official commitment marriage brought, if anything would change in their connection. Lucy had a gut feeling it’d be better than any time before and that they’d feel close and connected like never before, although that’d never been an issue for them. Their intimacy always brought not only their bodies, but also their minds and souls as close together as possible.

“Absolutely not,” she said, planting a kiss on his lips to soften the blow. “But we should get back. Theo looked pretty sleepy and I promised him another dance. Also, Harry made me swear to save one for him as well.” She smiled at the memory of sharing a dance with Niall’s ten year old godson not even an hour ago, and at the conversation they’d had with his former bandmates, which involved a lot of teasing of her husband.

“No,” Niall whined languidly. “Why do I have to share you? I’m fine with Theo, he’s a good kid, but Harry can suck it, he has his own girl.” He pouted to emphasize his words, at which Lucy laughed and reached her hand to smooth his features.

“Well, you could dance with Meave or another of the boys’ girls and then we can swap to get back together. I’m the bride, baby, a hot commodity, nothing we can do about it.” She shrugged her shoulders with a smile.

He sighed and pulled her closer to hide in the space between her neck and shoulder, which might just be his favourite spot on her body. “Okay, let’s go, I want to get it over with,” he said after a minute, standing straighter up. The smile on his face and the kiss he gave her before pulling away and lacing their fingers to head back to their party told her what she already knew, that he wasn’t actually grumpy and he did enjoy the night, even if it meant sharing her the whole night. Because in the end, she was his and he was hers and they had a whole lifetime together ahead of them.

Right before they entered the room where most of the guests were gathered, he pulled her to her chest once more and whispered a simple sentence right into her ear, but that few words sent a thrilled chill across her whole body: “Can’t wait for our honeymoon.”

[atths--twice]

Moving right along... This is one I wrote in February for a friend of mine before she had to go to the hospital for a major surgery. She was very nervous and as I am very far away, there is only so much I can do. Well, she loves the family stories and so... I wrote this for her as a sweet surprise. 

Hope you enjoy it. 

Happiness Triumphant      4/5

Summer has officially begun, and Mulder cannot wait to spend it with his little girl, who has just completed her first year of preschool.

June 2022

School was nearly over for the year, and summer was stretching out before them like a never ending road that promised many adventures. Camp outs, staying up late, trips to the library for story hour, arts and crafts, or simply being home and doing nothing.

Mulder had been looking forward to it for weeks, much to Scully’s amusement, even going so far as to crossing the days off the calendar with Faith. Big black X’s that made him smile, but for reasons Faith would never understand.

The square on the calendar for the seventeenth of June, was circled and decorated with ice cream cones, happy faces, and shooting stars. No way could anyone miss the importance of the day.

On the seventeenth, he waited at the school for Faith, pacing internally for twenty minutes as he sat in the car, working at getting the high score on Candy Crush, a game he denied playing anytime Scully questioned him about the app.

“I don’t play that game, Scully. It’s silly. You downloaded it and it showed up on my phone too, that’s all.” He would tell her as she nodded with her eyebrows raised, a look he knew all too well.

School’s Out began to play on his phone, interrupting his game, and he shut it off. Hearing it playing, he grinned, happy he had taken the time to figure out how to set it as his alarm.

It was finally noon and time to get his girl. He was giddy with excitement as he stepped out of the car and all but ran across the parking lot.

He was the first one at the gate, and he grinned when he saw her face pressed to the classroom window, her blue eyes shining with happiness, and a huge smile on her face.

She ran to him when the door opened, her dark hair flying free from the braids Scully had taken the time to put in that morning.

“Daddy!” she shouted, wrapping her arms around his neck. “It’s the day, Daddy! It’s ice cream day!”

“It is and so much more! No more school! You don’t have to be back here for three months! No more school! No more school! Oh… sorry Miss Cole. We, uh…” he said, catching sight of Faith’s teacher. He looked at Faith and she smiled, absolutely no help to him in his moment of awkwardness.

“It’s quite alright, Mr. Mulder,” Miss Cole said with a smile. “If you promise not to tell anyone, at this time next week, I’ll feel the same way.” She put a finger to her lips and winked.

He chuckled and nodded, reaching into his back pocket as he shifted Faith to his side. “This is from Dana and I. I know Faith gave you her card…”

“Which I will treasure always. Hand print flowers are my weakness.”

“Right. Well, we wanted you to also have a little something extra, so this is for you.” He handed her a pink greeting card envelope and smiled at her. “Thank you for everything this year. Faith has enjoyed your class and she’s really blossomed. I know you had a lot to do with it, so thank you.”

Miss Cole sniffled and took the card with a shaky smile. “Thank you. She’s been a joy to have in class and I’m excited to see the person she continues to become.” She touched Faith’s shoulder and she dove into her arms. Miss Cole gave out a laugh which ended on a sob, as she hugged her tightly.

“I love you Miss Cole! Do you want come and get ice cream with us? I like chocolate,” Faith asked, pulling back to look at her.

“No… I…” Her eyes were wet and she swallowed a couple of times. “I would love to, but I have to say goodbye to the other children. You have a wonderful summer, and I’ll see you next year, okay?”

“Okay!” She slid down and went to grab her backpack and lunchbox.

“She’s a very sweet girl. I know we’re not supposed to have favorites,” she said conspiratorially, looking at the other children. “But come on…” He laughed and nodded.

“I agree, but I am rather biased. Thank you again. Have a great summer.” He smiled as Faith ran back to him and handed him her things, hugging Miss Cole once more.

Taking Faith’s hand, they walked past the other parents who were beginning to trickle in to pick up their children, most of them not appearing to be as excited as he felt. But then, they did not have a blue eyed girl who had been counting down to today, her excitement nearly as high as his own.

“Daddy, can I have sprinkles on my ice cream?”

“Don’t you always?”

“Uh huh. But it’s polite to ask, right?”

“It is indeed, my girl,” he said with a laugh. “It is indeed. How about today you get sprinkles and gummy bears?”

“Really?”

“Sure! It’s the last day of school! We are freeeeee!” He threw his head back and howled and she copied him, both of them howling to the sky and then laughing as they looked at each other.

“Come on, my wild girl, let’s go get that ice cream.” He scooped her up and buckled her in her seat, dropping her bags on the floorboard, and waving goodbye to the school as they drove away.  

“See you next time!” Faith called and he smiled as he looked back at her in the rear view mirror; a little carbon copy of him and Scully all rolled into one little person.

The drive to the ice cream shop took about fifteen minutes, during which she told him about her last day of school. They played most of the day and then helped Miss Cole box up the toys for the children to play with the next school year.

“Sounds like you had fun and you were productive.”

“What does pro-duc-tive mean?”

“It means you worked at something and accomplished a goal. The goal was to box up the toys and help Miss Cole. You and your classmates worked together, you were productive, and you finished that goal,” he explained, glancing back at her again.

“Oh. Yeah, we were very pro-duc-tive. I helped Elijah put the cars in the red bin and Margot helped Ryan do the instruments. Miss Cole said it was good teamwork.”

“And she’s right, you all worked hard and got the job done, now it’s time forrrrrrr ICE CREAM!” he shouted as they pulled into the parking lot and she lifted her arms in the air in celebration.

Walking into the shop, he let her go ahead of him, waving at the girl behind the counter, and then startling when Faith suddenly yelled out.

“Mommy!” she said, as she ran to the left and sure enough, there stood Scully, smiling as she bent down to receive Faith’s hug. “You surprised me, Mommy!” Scully laughed and met Mulder’s eyes over Faith’s shoulder.

“Was it a good surprise?” Scully asked, as Faith pulled back and held her face in her small hands.

“The best surprise! Are you getting ice cream too?”

“I am, my love.” Scully smiled as she brushed Faith’s hair back and kissed her forehead. “Come on, let’s pick out our flavors.” She stood up and grasped Faith’s hand, smiling at Mulder as she walked closer. “Surprised?”

“Without a doubt,” he said, kissing her lips and squeezing her upper arm. “What are you doing here?”

“Well, I couldn’t miss the most important day of the year. It’s only been on the calendar for two months now,” she teased and he smiled, kissing her again.

“You joining us just for ice cream?”

���Nope,” she smiled. “I took the rest of the day off. Just had to finish up paperwork this morning and I am here for it all.”

“Well, that’s the best surprise I could hope to hear.” He placed his hand on the small of her hack and they walked over to place their order.

Sitting down at a table, Scully stopped Faith from taking her first bite, tying her hair back first, knowing how messy she could get.

“What happened to the braids I put in your hair this morning?” Scully asked, tucking a strand behind Faith’s ear.

“I was Rapunzel today. She doesn’t have braids,” she responded, taking a big bite of her chocolate ice cream, a gummy bear falling from her spoon and into her cup.

“Hmm. Can’t argue with that logic,” Scully smiled and shrugged, taking a bite of her own ice cream; chocolate with salted caramel sauce and brownie bits.

Mulder winked at her and scooped a large bite of his ice cream into his mouth; strawberry with white chocolate sauce. Licking his lips, he watched Scully staring and leaned forward with a napkin.

“Oh, you have a little drool there,” he teased with a smirk, wiping at the corner of her mouth.

“Oh… you better just knock it off.” She laughed and pushed his hand away as she shook her head.

“Daddy, here, have one of my gummy bears.” No chance to politely refuse or even lean away, she shoved a cold hard gummy bear between his lips and into his mouth. He coughed as he sat back in his seat, rolling the candy around on his tongue, letting it thaw a bit before he bit it.

“Instant karma, I love it,” Scully laughed and Faith took another big bite, watching him chew the candy.

“Double karma,” he said, making a face. “It’s a green one.” Scully laughed harder as Faith frowned. “Thank you honey, I love it.” Her frown changed to a smile as he kissed the top of  her head, making another face at Scully.

They continued eating their ice cream, as Faith told them what she did on her last day; playing and having fun with her friends.

“Miss Cole gave me a present. It’s in my backpack. Can I open it in the car?” she asked Mulder, her lips and chin covered in chocolate. He smiled and wiped her mouth and then saw the state of her hands.

“Why don’t you and Mommy go wash up, I’ll toss out our trash, and we can go see about that present?”

She jumped down from her chair and they went to the bathroom while he cleared their table. When they returned, she took each of their hands and they walked out to the car.

As Faith opened her gift, a book she had loved in the classroom, Scully moved her car to a shadier spot, before getting into Mulder’s car.

“How about we go to the children’s museum?” she suggested, as she buckled her seat belt and Faith cheered.

For the next two hours, Faith ran around playing with everything: the water area, the pretend city where she shopped and then scanned her groceries, the stage where she controlled the lights and sound, and the little farm area with real live chicks in a plastic covered habitat.

Watching a puppet show, with Faith sitting front and center, Mulder and Scully sat in the back on a faux log. Sighing as the children all laughed, Mulder glanced at her.

“You okay?” he asked, interlocking his fingers with hers.

“Hmm? Yeah, I’m okay,” she said quietly.

“Didn’t sound very convincing,” he replied, nudging her a little with his shoulder. She sighed and squeezed his hand, putting her head on his shoulder.

“It’s going by so fast,” she whispered and he watched Faith, pointing excitedly at the puppets along with the other kids, telling them to look behind them.

“Some of it, Scully. Not everything,” he said and she sighed again. “I’ve loved every age and stage of her life, but this right now, this is the best. She can express her feelings, her wants and needs, and she can understand consequences- good and bad. She’s so much fun, so intelligent, and has such a beautiful soul.”

“Mulder,” she breathed, taking a shaky breath and sniffing.

“Hey, I didn’t mean to make you cry. I’m sorry,” he said, letting go of her hand and putting his arm around her, pulling her close. “What are you thinking?”

“I don’t know,” she sighed. “I love working, but I want to be at home too. I know this was my decision, and you’ve never made me feel I’ve made the wrong one, but… I don’t know. Should I have waited until she started kindergarten in a couple of years? She will be there full time then…”

“Scully, stop or you’ll make me cry,” he said with a heavy sigh. “I don’t even want to think about that right now. This past year has been hard enough. The three hours she’s gone, twice a week, is bad enough. But all day? Five days a week?” She chuckled as he shook his head and she placed her hand on his thigh, giving it a squeeze.  

“I say, we enjoy the moments we are in, and worry later, especially on a day like today. It’s ice cream day, Scully.” He rubbed her arm and she laughed.

“Yes, it is. Okay. No more crying. Be in the now, right?”

“Well if we’re talking Wayne’s World, the quote is live in the now, but otherwise, you’re right.”

“I wasn’t talking Wayne’s World.”

“Seems silly not to be, but then I suppose that means you’re right,” he said, moving his arm to clap for the end of the puppet show along with everyone else.

“I do enjoy hearing that,” she teased, as they stood up to meet Faith.

“I know you do,” he said, close to her ear, and he heard her chuckle.

Deciding it was time to leave, they walked through the gift shop, telling Faith she could pick one item. Taking her decision very seriously, she walked around the shop looking at everything. Hearing her gasp, they both wondered what had caught her eye.

She reached out toward a black picnic box covered in brightly colored planets, comets, stars, and meteoroids. All of them, save the tiny stars, had happy smiling faces.

“That’s Earth. And that’s Saturn. Mars. Neptune. What’s this purple one?” She held the box in her hands and pointed to it, looking up at Mulder.

“I don’t think it’s entirely accurate, but it’s pretty cute. Let’s see what’s inside, shall we?” He knelt down beside her and they unlocked it.

Opening it, they found a tea set. Four cups, plates, and saucers, a tray to serve it on and a teapot all decorated with stars and planets. The tray had an astronaut, a monkey, and a dog wearing round clear helmets as they stood on the moon.

“Ohhh, I love it,” she said, touching the teapot. “It has a dog on it. Like Bella. Can I have this?”

“Absolutely! One tea set coming right up!” He stood up and handed it back to Faith. “You lead the way, my love.” She grinned and carried her purchase to the register as they followed her.

“She already has a tea set, you know,” Scully said quietly.

“Not one with planets,” he said just as quietly and she laughed.

The girl at the register smiled as she rang up the tea set and Mulder handed Faith the money to pay for it which she did happily. Change given, they thanked her and walked out, Faith carrying her lunchbox with a big smile.

They dropped Scully back at her car, with plans for her to pick up food for dinner, while they went home to put away the school things and give Faith a bath. Scully waved as they drove away, Faith chattering in the backseat about her new tea set.

When they got home, they greeted Bella who was very happy to see them, running around the yard and chasing Faith. She laughed as she fell in the grass and Bella licked her face, before lying down beside her, pushing her head at Faith, wanting to be pet.

“You’re a good girl, Bella. I love you,” she told her, kissing her head and getting up to go into the house with Bella following.

Inside, they had a ceremonial putting away of her cleaned out school backpack and lunch bag, saying thank you for the school year and they would see it in a few months. Then they went upstairs and Faith had a fun time splashing and playing in the mountains of sweet smelling bubbles added to her bath as Bella lay beside the tub keeping watch.

Dried and dressed in her unicorn nightgown, Mulder braided her hair, though not as neatly as Scully always seemed to get them. Adding two sparkly clips, they went downstairs to open her tea set.

“Oh, wait!” she shouted, as they had it all set up. She ran upstairs, coming back down with her alien and a small purple unicorn. “We needed more people.” She set them on the coffee table in front of the plates, as Mulder knelt down at his place.

“May I please have some tea, Miss Faith?” he asked, holding out his tin star covered cup.

“You may,” she said, lifting the tea pot and pouring some water into his cup.

“Mm, it smells delicious. Which flavor did you choose today?”

“It’s cinnamon and honey.”

“An excellent choice,” he said, taking a small sip with his pinky in the air. She poured some into the other cups and then lifted hers to take a sip.

“Mm, it’s very good. The honey makes it very sweet,” she said knowingly and he nodded.

“May I have a cookie, Miss Faith?”

“You may.” She offered him the plate of shortbread cookies, adding one to each of the plates and to her own.

“Such lovely treats you’ve prepared today. Thank you for inviting me to such a splendid party.”

“Daddy, you’re so silly,” she said with a giggle and he made a funny face at her.

Halfway through their second cup, Scully came in with bags of food. Deciding on a picnic in the house, they put away the tea party, laid a blanket out on the floor, and sat down to eat their dinner.

They each snuck bites of food to Bella who was ecstatic at their apparent new eating arrangements. Faith giggled a lot as they ate, the fun of the day seeming to catch up with her. Scully told some funny stories, thus increasing the laughter and soon they were all laughing and trying to stop, thought it was nearly impossible.

Once they had calmed down and dinner was finished and cleared away, Mulder suggested a movie night, something they had not seen before.

“How about Rapunzel, since you pretended to be her today, Faith? We haven’t seen that yet, right? No wait, it’s not called that, it’s something else. What’s it called? Wrapped Up?”

“I think you mean Tangled,” Scully laughed and he nodded.

“Yes.Tangled. Let’s have a pajama party and watch that movie.”

So they did. Popcorn was popped, waters brought to the coffee table, and cozy blankets gathered. The lights were dimmed as the movie started, Faith snuggled in between them, her alien in her arms.

Fifteen minutes in and she asked at least thirty questions. Mulder paused it to try to answer them in better depth so she understood that Rapunzel had been taken from her parents and raised by the mean mommy, who did not love her, but only her hair.

“Her hair is really long,” she said, watching the mean mommy slide down it as Mulder unpaused the movie. “Why doesn’t she cut it?”

“Remember it turns brown, like when she was a baby. She can’t cut it or it will lose its magic,” Scully told her.

“Oh, yeah.”

Mulder looked at Scully and smiled as they watched her watch the movie. She did not watch much television, but when she did, she was always engrossed in what was happening.

It was quiet for a bit as they watched the funnier bits, all of them laughing at the horse, and Rapunzel trying to shove Flynn into her closet.

“I don’t like her mean mommy yelling at her,” she said, turning her head and hiding on Scully as she held her arm. “She’s being mean.” Mulder looked at Scully again and she stuck out her lip with a smile.

“I like the lizard, he’s funny.”

“He’s a chameleon, honey. He can change colors.”

“Oh no, her mean mommy is back. I don’t like her, Mommy. She makes me sad.”

“Do you want me to turn it off, baby?” Mulder asked and she shook her head.

“I just want to hold onto Mommy,” she said, her head on Scully’s arm as she held it. Scully smiled as she leaned her own head down on top of hers.

Again watching Faith more than the movie, she had become quieter, but very animated, and they smiled. She sat forward, soaking it all in, as she hid her face, covered her mouth, and stared at the television with wide eyes.

“The mean mommy is trying to trick Rapunzel. Mommy, I don’t want to see her.” She hid in Scully’s arm, only looking when they said she was gone.

“I like the horse, he’s like Bella. Oh, they’re at the castle now. It’s so pretty there. I like all the flowers in her hair too.”

She got off the couch and spun around as Rapunzel danced with Flynn, actually named Eugene, and Bella barked at her as she did. Scully reached for Mulder’s hand and squeezed it, her chin scrunching as they watched her spinning around and then stopping as the music did, Eugene and Rapunzel also stopping. She stood in front of the television, watching the movie, not coming back to the couch.

“That’s her real mommy and daddy. Is her daddy sad?”

“Yes, he is,” Mulder said, and she turned around, her eyes big.

“Why is he sad?”

“Because he misses his little girl. Remember the mean mommy took her away from them when she was a baby and they have missed her very much.”

She looked back at the movie and then came over and crawled into his lap, her head under his chin as he wrapped an arm around her. Scully moved over and he put his other arm around her as they sat silently watching the movie.

Until Faith gasped and sat up, leaning forward.

“The lights are so pretty. So many beautiful lights.”

Scully leaned her head on his shoulder and took a deep breath. “Makes me think of the lanterns for my mom,” she whispered and he nodded, squeezing her arm.

“Oh no, the mean guys are there, Daddy,” Faith burrowed back in his lap and he smiled, holding her tightly.

“Look honey, Rapunzel figured it out. She remembers seeing the sun when she was a little baby. She knows she’s the princess that’s been lost,” he said and she turned her head to look before hiding again when the mean mommy was coming after Rapunzel.

“Oof,” Mulder said with a groan as Eugene escaped from jail on the horse. “No chance for the royal bloodline to advance after Eugene lands on the saddle that hard.” He shifted his legs a little and Scully laughed.

“The horse is flying!”

“Oh Daddy, I don’t like the mean mommy,” she said, leaning back against him, reaching her arm up to wrap around his neck.

“Oh! Eugene cut off all her long hair!”

“Damn. Pascal just straight up murdered Mother Gothel,” Scully muttered as Faith leaned forward again.

“It’s okay, he’s a chameleon. He knows how to cover it up,” Mulder murmured and she covered her mouth and giggled.

“Her magic hair is gone. She can’t help Eugene and he’s hurt.”  

“Let’s just see what happens, honey.”

Faith gasped as Rapunzel’s tear fell on Eugene’s cheek and he began to glow a bright yellow before waking up, completely healed. She smiled and clapped her hands when they hugged, climbing into Scully’s lap and hugging her hard, then reaching for Mulder and hugging him too.

“Look, her mommy and daddy are happy now,” Faith said, when the family was finally reunited. They nodded, both of them suddenly unable to speak past the lumps in their throats. She got down off the couch and danced around again as the movie ended and they wiped at their slightly wet eyes.

“That ending just about did me in, Jesus Christ,” he muttered, thinking of how they all fell to the ground as they hugged. “Leave it to Disney, as usual.”

Turning off the movie and television, he looked at Faith and smiled. “So, what did you think, honey? Did you like it?”

“Yes, but not the mean mommy. She took Rapunzel away from her family. That’s not nice.”

“No. It’s not, but she’s with them now and they’re all happy again.”

“I don’t want someone to take me away,” she said, her eyes filling with tears. “I don't want to leave you.”

“Oh, honey, come here,” he said, hating to see her so upset. Her eyes were the exact shade as Scully’s. Seeing her cry made him ache, just as it always did when Scully cried, and he saw such pain in the blue depths.

Faith came over and climbed onto his lap, crying hard as she clung to him. “If the mean… mommy took me… I would be… all alone,” she sobbed and he turned to Scully for help, only to discover she had tears in her eyes as well.

“Oh come on,” he whispered, not knowing what to do as both his ladies were crying. “This isn’t fair. It’s double the blue eyes against me.”

Scully tried to laugh but it only came out as a sob. He pulled her close and they became a mirror image of the movie, the three of them huddled together in tears. He shook his head as they cried, letting out a laugh of disbelief at the drastic turn the evening had taken.

“Faith, my love, no one would ever take you away from us. Not ever. Not in a million years. This was just a story, one that a person made up to be fun and exciting,” he said, above her soft cries. “Nearly every book or movie has a villain, the bad guy or girl, and a hero, the good guy or girl. For this movie, the villain was the mean mommy and the heroes were Rapunzel and Eugene. They worked together to stop the mean mommy and they saved the day.”

“It was teamwork?” she asked softly.

“Yes. In fact, there was a lot of teamwork. All the guys helped Eugene and then he was able to help Rapunzel.”

She was quiet and then she sat up, staring at him with big, wet eyes. “No one will take me?”

“No one. Daddy and Mommy would never let that happen. Or Bella. You think Bella would let anything bad happen to you?” She smiled as she looked over at Bella who was sleeping on her bed and shook her head. “No way. She’s your protector and she would bite whoever tried to do anything to you. Probably right on their butt.”

He smiled at her and she laughed as she looked at him again. He wiped her eyes and stroked her cheeks, kissing her forehead and sighing.

“Better now, my love?” She nodded. “And you, Mommy? Are you okay?” Scully laughed softly as she sat up. “You ladies can’t both cry like that because what am I supposed to do then? Four blue eyes filling with tears is too much for anyone, but especially me.”

Scully sighed and stared at him, her eyes still wet as she gave him a knowing look. He nodded, aware of what and of whom she was thinking.

“It’s not the same.”

“I know,” she whispered. “It’s just…”

“I know.” She sighed again and he stroked her cheek.

“Faithy, I think Mommy could use a great big monster hug.”

Faith leaned over and Scully pulled her into her lap, hugging her tightly, murmuring in her ear. He watched them, upset that he had chosen a movie which caused sadness, but glad that it could be fixed with a hug and some extra love.

Not wanting to end the night on a bad note, and even though it was getting late, he made a decision and suggested another tea party. Faith’s eyes lit up and they worked together to clear the coffee table. He filled the teapot with cold water and brought over one cookie each, setting them on a plate.

Gathering around the table, they nodded at one another, stating what a glorious evening it was for such a wonderful tea party. Cookies were distributed, tea was poured, and together they smiled, lifted their cups, and took a sip.

The happy replacing the sad. The heroes triumphantly defeating the villain.

[thestarsoftheirondog]

2021 The Year of the Silver Ox

The Metal Ox – Look in the Mirror

This is the year of the white metal Ox, sometimes known as the golden ox, but better named The Silver Ox.   This is going to be a year when we will fully feel the weight of our responsibilities, a year when it is necessary to double our efforts to accomplish anything at all.  The heavy-handed peace-maker has come to restore law and order.  Nothing untoward will be tolerated in this year and rebellion will be quashed.  Home is serene this year because the Ox is very patient, domesticated and sentimental. Family has a chance to reconcile and reunite.   The metal of this Ox is not some old, rusty piece of heavy machinery.  This is the Silver Ox, a shiny, polished metal that acts as a mirror and allows many to look candidly at themselves, clarify their desires and act decisively to make change, both personal and professional.   Achievement is still utterly dependent on a full measure of back-breaking work, but the Silver Ox in more insightful and self-knowing than other Ox years.  Work hard, but know what you want and what you are working towards.

I’m not a fan of the Ox in general. My very sharp teeth are not at all useful for gnawing cornerstones to perfect right angles, which is generally the proscribed activity for Ox years.  And I am a metal dog, the Iron Dog, particularly inflexible, so the stubborn metal of the Silver Ox out-weights my own naturally iron will, and I can foresee wasting a lot of time barking at myself in the mirror. The words of warning: if you are stubborn this year and stand against the Ox’s very frank demands for hard work and honesty, you are going to get flattened into the mud; and if you allow your anxieties and stress to pile up, boil over or spew forth, they are just going to get reflected back at you in that mirror.

That being said, I’m sure everyone is quite eager to get off the plague ship of 2020, regardless of what the Silver Ox has in store!  So plunk down the gangplank and let’s disembark without delay.    

 Note: I added the years for each animal sign, but remember if you are born in January, you are ruled by the previous year’s animal sign because the Chinese New Year does not usually begin until February.

Rat (1948, 1960, 1972, 1984, 1998, 2010): This is the year for your transformation.  You plotted it all out last year; now do it! Your new career is waiting. Don’t gamble – industry is the path to success.  Take no chances.  Avoid nuance – the Ox demands plain speech and overt action.  No sneaking around underground or lurking in dark corners this year!  Lucky you, Ox keeps things comfy at home so you can concentrate on your career. But Ox demands hard work and discipline and stamina.  You must stay well rested in order to meet the rigorous demands of the Ox. And above all, you must deliver on your promises.  This is a metal Ox and metal adds stubbornness to an already inflexible year. You should have a good year since you are starting ahead of everyone else – they are all staring stupidly into that mirror either asking themselves soul-searching questions or trying to figure out what they really want, while your plans are already made.  Continue to show restraint in spending – Ox will let you earn money, through hard work but resist the urge to splurge.  You will not need the money you earn this year so put it away and do not make any large purchases. This should be a very healthy year since the Ox will lend you fortitude to kick even your minor bad habits. This year there really are not a lot of other signs who can help you.  Ox is pretty much your best friend, even though they are very demanding.  Pigs are lively companions, although their obsession with work can be both exhausting and exasperating to their partners.  Tigers, Horses and Dogs are a triangle of signs you should avoid if you can – they have innate stubborn streaks (dogs) and rebellious tendencies (horses and tigers) that could get them into trouble that you want no part of that right now.

Ox (1949, 1961,1973, 1985, 1997, 2009): Love and Money are always yours in this year because you can be your hard-working, strong and ardent self.  No cunning or conniving required and no delicate veneers or refinements can contest your raw energy and brute strength.  This year, however, bodes for a distinct change in personality and perspective.  It’s a sentimental year.  Home can be blissful and loving if the Ox can keep its emotional sensitivity and stubbornness in check.  Look in the mirror and be mindful of what you see.  This will allow you to change and be more open to this year’s opportunities, both social and professional.  Your physical health should be good this year, but do remember to rest and relax.   Enjoy the company of friends and family.  The only health issues you are likely to have are mental.  Being overly sensitive can lead to depression. Excessive of energy can lead to agitation which will manifest as physical illness.   Snakes and Roosters are your best friends this year (and they aren’t hard on the eyes either).  They can help cheer you up and entertain you. Snakes have creative vision to help you direct your energy. And Roosters, aside from sharing your work ethic, can guide you to making your Herculean efforts profitable.  The Tiger-Horse-Dog triad are known agitators that will disturb you, in your year no less, so avoid them.  Goats are poised to flee to higher ground, so you can count on parting ways with them quickly.  

Tiger (1938,1950,1962, 1974, 1986, 1998, 2010): Look in the mirror. Time for some focus on yourself.  Questions, from the mundane and material to the spiritual and emotional, need to be answered during the first half of the year.  The Ox rewards hard work, but the Silver Ox requires you to be very introspective when setting your goals. Beware the fate of Narcissus, however, and do not languish before the mirror merely admiring yourself. You are fierce, noble and strong, but those are not the questions that require answers.  The Ox is industrious but not fast.  Tigers are strong as the Ox and a lot faster.  But before you dash out the door and start tearing things up, figure out what you really want.  The Ox wants discipline and order, and Tigers are just a tad unruly, with a bit of a temper to boot (and really sharp claws- No clawing this year!).  Simmer down and be patient when the Ox makes its demands. Financially, it is a good year for very careful planning and investing.  It is not a good year for spending.  The Silver Ox is very sentimental and home-oriented, so be careful not to overspend on your family or your abode.  Ox in general has a tendency to over-eat and to be an “emotional eater”, so stick to your diet.  Practice the patience of the Ox without the Ox’s emotional over-sensitivity.  Stress will make you physically ill so you need to be more objective and less emotional this year.  Your year, your 12 year reset, the next 12 year cycle of your life starts next year, in 2022, when we all go back to the jungle.  So this year you need to tidy up all the loose ends and mentally, as well as physically, finish whatever you have been working on.

Rabbit (1939, 1951, 1963, 1975, 1987, 1999, 2011):  You have the potential to identify other, significant sources of revenue this year. You can harness the energy of the Ox and make your hard work profitable.  You also need to stop playing second-fiddle and start giving yourself the respect and credibility you deserve.  You have an over-abundance of creativity this year – exactly what the Ox lacks.  You can really pull rabbits out of the hat this year, so pull yourself out!  Show off your talents. Stop worrying about absolute perfection and jump! Look in the mirror and see yourself as you truly are instead of as what loved ones tell you are or should be. This will lead to disagreement with your colleagues and your lovers.  You are so sensual and desirable that your nearest and dearest often suffer serious pangs of jealousy and insecurity, leading them to unfairly downplay your talent and criticize your work.   Be careful not to overwork yourself.  The Ox has stamina few can match, so don’t fall into that contest because you will lose and your health will suffer disastrously. You need to conserve your energy and use it creatively, with laser focus.  The Ox year is a domestic year, the last in a line of five (Rooster, Dog, Pig, Rat, Ox), before we all go back to the jungle in 2022, the Year of the Tiger.  So use the relative security of the Ox’s law-abiding, straight shooting, moderately paced year to make good progress, but remember this is a slow and steady wins the race year. Depression is a risk for the zodiac signs pre-disposed to it (Rabbit, Goat, Horse, Dog), so spend time with Goats (they will cheer you up and validate you) and Pigs (they will give you gentle, uncritical advice) and Dogs (they will believe in you and protect you).    

Dragon (1940, 1952, 1964, 1976, 1988, 2000, 2012): Opportunities are there and the Ox is earthbound and slow so you should have a clear view and ample time to make the most of them.  This is a year where the non-conformists (Dragons) shine.  Of all the zodiac animals, only the Dragons are mythical. Ox has plenty of energy and strength but lacks creativity.  This makes Dragons all the more sought after for their magic and imagination.  And this Ox is sweetly sentimental so home and family are not a source of friction this year. Dragons will be free to express themselves more fully and honestly to their loved ones.  Look in the mirror – you can solve any problem but you have to recognize it as a problem first. And, like the Tigers and the Goats, Dragons should beware of wasting too much time looking in the mirror only to admire their own reflections. The first half of the year will be relatively inactive since Dragons will be questioning their problems and possible solutions.  Even magical dragons can have doubts and seek advice. The Ox will lend you whatever muscle you need, so do not shirk your responsibilities, no matter how heavy.  This is a year when you must actually work, not just dream.  Be careful not to become agitated – there is no need and agitation will only exhaust you. Your health has the potential to deteriorate seriously if you don’t remain calm and well-rested. Remember too that Ox has a tendency to be an emotional eater, so stick very carefully to your diet and health regimes.  The second half of the year Dragons will relaunch themselves to new heights and dominate the skies again in a new and very purposeful way.  Monkeys and Rats will be good friends for you this year.  Monkeys are very clever and provide useful advice. Monkeys also have little or no conscience so their advice will be refreshingly unclouded by emotion or sentiment. They are also at their charming best this year.  Rats are the masters of timing and self-interest, so they can be of good service to Dragons this year.  Stay away from the Dogs – their bark is never agreeable to you, and this year your mirror is the only critic you have time for.

Snake (1941, 1953, 1965, 1977, 1989, 2001, 2013): You can actually find enlightenment and answers this year. Your dreams that have been on hold for a while can take root and blossom this year.  You inspire others. You provide many things the Ox innately lacks and can make a big difference in the lives of others this year.  Don’t be lured into imitating the Ox’s unreasonable and demanding tactics; you need to be your charming and charismatic self.  You have great flexibility which the Ox entirely lacks.  Emotional over-sensitivity of the Ox makes your hypnotic and graceful mannerisms very important to those around you.  Treat others and their emotions carefully and tactfully.  More importantly, socializing and communicating graciously will greatly improve the chance that you will meet someone who will be a catalyst for a significant career move some time in the next few years.  Ox and Roosters are your friends this year. Ox has the energy and the strength but needs your creative vision to be effective.  And the Rooster has the business acumen and accounting skills to make your projects profitable. Pigs, like you, are incredibly creative, however, they are workaholics and trying to partner with them in business will kill you.  Health is generally good for Snakes this year. This is a year full of energy, but be patient and practice stress management and reduction, or else agitation could lead to insomnia, depression and even mental disease.

Horse (1942, 1954, 1966, 1978, 1990, 2002, 2014): Optimism is high and you are brimming with confidence and plans which attract many willing helpers.  Ox likes your work ethic and will throw its significant weight behind you to help you get it done. You are detail oriented, disciplined and leave little to chance, so the mirror the Ox wants you to look in doesn’t really contain any surprises. Rather, the introspection of this year is just a sentimental review of your childhood and experiences, and recognition of how they have shaped you.  Above all, forgive yourself, love yourself and then put the mirror away.  Be careful not to get too sentimental as the Ox has a tendency to overspend on family and friends, and the horse has a tendency to try to purchase harmony with loved ones.  You are in the Tiger-Horse-Dog triad of compatibility, so those signs will always be fundamentally compatible with you.  Dog is conservative like you, and likes law and order, and Tiger shares your love of freedom and your wanderlust.  Ox is conservative too, and the Silver Ox is actually in favor of travel for family reunions, visits to ancestral lands or grave sites, or any travel for business.  Goats are very companionable this year (they are lonely); Tigers are willing to lend you a helping hand (they are bored).  Dragons are very spiritually appealing and noble this year.  Monkeys provide excellent advice and are better mannered than usual.  Avoid the Rats; their misgivings, pessimism and selfishness just rain all over your parade this year and bring down your high spirits.  Health is generally good this year, although there is a high chance of injury/accident in the second half of the year.  And there may be some problem within the skull – either dental, auditory or mental.  

Goat (1943, 1955, 1967, 1979, 1991, 2003): Money cannot buy you love, so don’t waste your money. Set goals because you can climb high and fast and will achieve them.  Invest in yourself, your own business, your own career and you will profit greatly.  Keep your cool or you might lose your lover and your money.  You don’t really get along with Ox, and when you do look in the mirror, you don’t look honestly.  You far prefer the flattery and attention of others. They tell you what you want to hear, and in exchange, you try to tell them what they want to hear.  Romance is in the air and you love Love.  Horses and rabbits are your best bet – they have the added benefit of being really creative and full of interesting plans this year, and they both need your kindness and pleasantry.  You could be absolutely smitten with a Pig or another Goat. Pig, however, loves business more than Pig will ever love you.  And another Goat, while a charming lover, isn’t going to take you anywhere new or different. Just remember, Love is not going to pay the bills, so don’t go languishing in it when you should be working.  Agitation and stress can manifest as physical illness this year, so Goats will have to be extra careful to devote enough time to rest and relaxation.  Goat’s health is always precariously wrapped up in their mental well-being and the demands of the Silver Ox for introspection can lead to depression in the zodiac signs that are prone to this affliction anyway (Horse, Goat, Rabbit, Dog).  Goat has a thin skin and the Silver Ox’s sentimentality leaves the Goat’s emotions exposed for excess bruising. Goat should stay away from the Rats (they will depress you) and the Dogs (they will hurt your feelings). One last reminder: Goats are stubborn, and at their worst can hurl themselves head first at rock walls; don’t do it.  Rock walls are for climbing, as nimbly as only a Goat can.

Monkey (1944, 1956, 1968, 1980, 1992, 2004): You have the energy, talent and ambition this year, and the Ox will reward your efforts and even lend you some extra muscle.  But you have some long-ignored questions about yourself that you need to answer.  Do not be afraid to look in the mirror.  With the answers, you will become more confident and focused throughout the year. Your wishes can’t come true until you actually make a wish; you can’t achieve your goals until you set them.  This Ox is sentimental and that sentimentality is NOT weakness; it is the patience and kindness to look at your past and acknowledge how it influences your personality, and how better to apply yourself.  You will be infinitely more successful with this self-knowledge.  This year has plenty of opportunities for the Monkey and you are intelligent enough, and quick enough, to take advantage with excellent results for your career and your bank account.  Be careful not to make promises you cannot keep. It is a healthy year generally, but could get off to a rocky start or suffer a minor set-back in the middle.  You are vibrant this year, and less inclined to tease than usual, making you very attractive and sought-after.  Take advantage of social connections to gain valuable information and higher visibility, but beware would-be seducers masquerading as would-be business partners.  They could raise false expectations, waste your valuable time and potentially damage your professional reputation.  

Rooster (1933, 1945, 1957, 1969, 1981, 1993, 2005):  This year is about an organized and disciplined campaign to regain your personal authority and power.  This is not a blustery year of fortune’s fickle winds and upheaval.  Change this year is engineered and deliberate to solve real problems.  Although some sacrifices are required, Roosters can make the necessary and timely changes, and surpass themselves gloriously.  It’s that Phoenix thing – crash, burn, rise from the ashes, soar high, and repeat as often as necessary.  It will be a busy year, full of plans and projects and social engagements.  And, because Rooster desires change, the sentimentality of this Ox will not depress Rooster or leave the Rooster with any regrets.  Friends and Family always come first with Rooster, and this year the sentimental Ox rewards the Rooster handsomely for these fine priorities. There will be friction in your professional life because you have to deal with personalities you do not appreciate.  Use your abundance of energy to focus on making the team work together and get the job done.  Snakes and Ox are very good friends this year: Snake has some excellent ideas and Ox has the muscle; Rooster harnesses them together and can drive them to success.  Monkeys and Rabbits are very hard to live with because Monkey tries to second-guess you at every turn, and Rabbit is just bouncing all over the place. Besides, neither of them are domesticated.  Your philosophical disagreements with Rats continue, with no plausible end in sight. Although you both love work, your work ethic is stronger and Rat does not give as high a priority to family life as you do. Excess energy can lead to excess agitation which in turn will lead to a decline in health, so keep your cool and your objectivity. As with any metal year, Roosters should take extra care to avoid accidents/injury.

Dog (1946, 1958, 1970, 1982, 1994, 2006): You have the energy and you have the determination; be organized and pay attention to detail. Consider your opportunities objectively so that you can prioritize the ones with the greatest potential for success and not waste your time on somebody else’s noble but impractical or impossible pet project. And don’t let your hard work go unrewarded or unrecognized.  Act decisively and demand credit where credit is due.  Look in the mirror to remind yourself of your self-worth and be confident that you deserve reward and advancement.  Don’t be suckered or guilted, or even friended into doing other people’s work for them.  We all have our own responsibilities this year, and they are heavy. Even with the extra energy of the Ox, your own burdens are quite enough – do not shoulder the burdens of others.  This is a domesticated year, the last of a string of 5 (Rooster, Dog, Pig, Rat, Ox) so be your dedicated, strong, well-behaved self - think lead on the sled dog team … running the Iditarod.  2022, the Year of the Tiger, it’s back to the jungle and you can howl and run wild with Tiger’s protection and good will, because Tiger is in your compatibility triad. Ox is not.  Your stamina is good and you pursue doggedly, but the Ox always demands more and physical exhaustion leading to deterioration in health is a real risk. No excesses this year.  Resist the impulsive spending and gift-giving; you have what you need so put the rest away for a rainy day. Keep your criticisms of others entirely to yourself this year (and every year?) because the Ox is in charge and other people’s feelings bruise easily this year. Depression is a big risk this year, so look to Rabbits (they are Dog’s secret friend and can cheer you up) and Tigers (in your affinity triad and they reassure and protect Dogs) to lift your spirits. While you tend to offer too much criticism, and nobody wants to hear it this year, you esteem Tigers and Horses so much that you find fault with them far less frequently than with others. And even when you do find fault with them, your loyalty generally keeps you quiet.  So you will be a much more agreeable companion within your triad this year than outside it.  Strive to remain optimistic; it will be better for everyone if you do! There are no obstacles in an Ox year that cannot be overcome.

Pig (1947, 1959, 1971, 1983, 1995, 2007): Money flows your way and luck is with you in your investments.  You are strong like the ox and the ox loves your work ethic and willingly throws its weight behind your endeavors. You are clever and can really take advantage of the opportunities this year. Don’t let sentimentality draw you into unfruitful ventures or cloud your vision concerning really golden opportunities.  Although the pig can potentially over-indulge, their enormous appetite for work over-rides everything this year.  And while excess energy leads to agitation and stress in other signs, the pigs just plow it back into even greater productivity. There will be extra money this year, so put some away safely to invest in a terrific opportunity a few years from now. This will be an extraordinary year in many regards.  Be careful with the feelings of others.  The Ox has a tendency to be overly sensitive. Pigs will need to be patient with the sentimental mood that prevails this year. Of course Pig would rather just work, but family and friends feel neglected by pig while pig is truffle hunting. Goats, Tigers and Rabbits are good friends this year.  The Tigers admire your strength and your ability to fight. This bodes well for you in 2022, the Year of the Tiger, when jungle warfare comes back into style. Tigers also like your creativity and intelligence and will help you this year because they are bored.  Goats and Rabbits need you a little bit more than you need them. Goats are lonely this year and want to socialize in style (you have high style); and Rabbits need your advice and help applying their creativity in a more focused and profitable manner. Both Goats and Rabbits trust you not to bruise their emotions. Goat may even fall in love with you.  Living with a Rat is never boring, but although both of you have a tendency to prioritize work over home life, ironically it is the Rat who claims to be neglected.  This is likely because Rat lacks your stamina. Snakes are to be avoided – they get on well with Ox and can flourish this year, but they have nothing to offer Pigs. Remember the Roosters are very good with money, and are doing capable of doing that Phoenix thing and rise from the ashes, so don’t discount them from your business plans.

[theliberaltony]

via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.

sarahf (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): Alright, we’re back with a 2020 draft — but with a twist. This time we’re not interested in discussing who we think will win the Democratic nomination; we want to debate who we think will drop out next.

Already the days of a debate stage maxed out with 20 candidates seem to be a thing of the past: As Geoffrey wrote on Tuesday, only nine candidates have qualified for the third debate so far. So we’re interested in debating how the field will (or won’t!) winnow in the coming weeks.

Welcome to the first 2020 “Drop-Out Draft”!!!

The rules are simple: Three rounds (with three of us playing, that means nine picks in total) in which we pick from among the candidates FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” No

draft, because, well, that would be nuts. Whoever’s “team” includes the most candidates who drop out by the October debate (or by the time Iowa rolls around, if we want to be a bit more judicious and save face) will be the winner.

The order:

Geoffrey

Nathaniel

Sarah

OK, Geoff, you’re up! End our suspense and let me and Nathaniel know how royally screwed we are.

geoffrey.skelley (Geoffrey Skelley, elections analyst): OK, so my first pick is former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper. He had just 13,000 donors at the end of June and is very unlikely to make the September debate, considering he also has just one qualifying poll (he still needs three more). Plus, he has an exit ramp available to him: running for Senate in Colorado.

And it seems like Hickenlooper might be open to the idea of mounting a challenge to GOP Sen. Cory Gardner. There’s also some evidence that this might be a good move for Hickenlooper, too. A poll released Tuesday found him ahead of Gardner, 51 percent to 38 percent, and another survey this week showed Hickenlooper leading the crowded primary field by about 50 percentage points.

nrakich (Nathaniel Rakich, elections analyst): Good pick.

Yeah, Hickenlooper has resisted calls for him to run for Senate for a loooong time.

He even said back in February that “I’m not cut out to be a senator.” It seemed pretty definitive.

But then last week, he appeared to subtly change his tune when his communications director said “he hasn’t closed the door to anything.”

To me, that’s a sign that he may be preparing to jump ship.

sarahf: Do we think Hickenlooper is jeopardizing his Senate chances by continuing to stay in the presidential primary?

geoffrey.skelley: Sarah, he might be, but the Colorado Democratic primary field for the Senate race is crowded, too, with no obvious front-runner, and that is good news for Hickenlooper. It means he doesn’t have to rush to get into the race.

sarahf: And I guess with Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold ruling out running (she’d been speculated as a possible contender) … there really isn’t a clear front-runner yet.

geoffrey.skelley: Bingo. And maybe her avoidance of the race is a sign that she’s not sure Hickenlooper won’t end up running.

nrakich: This was kind of a silly story, but it was also reported a couple weeks ago that a firm that had previously worked for Hickenlooper registered domain names like “HickForSenate.com.”

geoffrey.skelley: Oh, I love a good domain registration story.

nrakich: None of these pieces of evidence is strong on its own, but in total, they might be pointing to something.

sarahf: OK, Geoff … so does Hickenlooper drop out before October? Or … before Iowa?

geoffrey.skelley: I think he drops out before October after failing to qualify for the September debate.

sarahf: Alright, you heard it here first folks! You’re up next, Nathaniel.

nrakich: OK, with the second overall pick, I choose Rep. Seth Moulton.

sarahf:

He’s still running?

nrakich: Haha, indeed. I’m a bit surprised that he is.

He didn’t even qualify for the first two debates, which every other major candidate without a good excuse (i.e., jumped in the race after the qualifying deadline for the first debate) did.

He’s almost certainly not going to make the September debate.

In addition, he reportedly had to let go of half his campaign staffers, indicating his campaign might be in financial trouble.

Finally, although he can legally run for president and for reelection to his House seat at the same time, it’s not a good look.

sarahf: Yeah, I imagine his calculus has to be pretty similar to Eric Swalwell — a House member who also ran for president, but has since dropped out to focus on his 2020 reelection bid.

geoffrey.skelley: All this makes sense to me, though I wonder if Moulton might hang around awhile longer. After all, the candidate filing deadline for Massachusetts isn’t until May 2020, whereas Swalwell had a December 2019 deadline to worry about if he was going to seek reelection.

nrakich: I hear that, Geoffrey, but Moulton is also already attracting primary challengers in the Massachusetts 6th District.

And he was already catching flak back home after he led a failed attempt to deprive Nancy Pelosi of the speakership after Democrats took back the House in 2018.

So I think he’d be smart to focus on his House primary, which I think he could be in real danger of losing.

geoffrey.skelley: But when does he drop out?

nrakich: Yeah, the one thing that gives me pause is the fact that he hasn’t already.

But I would say soon — particularly if he is indeed running out of money.

geoffrey.skelley: Yeah, hard to get people to work for you if you can’t give them a paycheck.

Now let’s see if Sarah will take my preferred next pick…

sarahf: Haha. l think I might get the first “bad pick” of the draft.

geoffrey.skelley: There are no bad picks … until there are bad picks. Lol.

sarahf: But first a step back to explain my rationale. I think there are two big groups of candidates when we’re talking about who drops out before Iowa.

You’ve got your unconventional, “never stood a chance” candidates like Mike Gravel, who simply don’t have the resources (or interest) to stay in any longer.

And then you’ve got your “also rans” like Swalwell (and Moulton), who I think could have held out until Iowa if they wanted to, but purposefully chose not to in order to avoid jeopardizing their political reputation. Like I wouldn’t be surprised if Swalwell mounts a Senate bid when Dianne Feinstein’s seat is up in 2024.

A candidate I think that falls into that category (although arguably, she shouldn’t) is … Kirsten Gillibrand!!!

nrakich: Outside the box!!

geoffrey.skelley: Now that is an interesting pick.

sarahf: She’s a talented career politician — she’s been in the Senate since 2009 and was in the House before that. And she maybe even picked up some momentum after the second debate (e.g., she now has one qualifying poll where she’s cracked 2 percent).

But to be clear, she’s still polling at 0.3 percent nationally, on average, according to Real Clear Politics.

So I think Gillibrand and her campaign are going to have some tough talks in the lead-up to October about her campaign and whether to fold it, because she’s got too many Senate colleagues in the race with whom she has close working relationships. In particular, I’m thinking Cory Booker and Kamala Harris, but even Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders.

And so if she stays in too much longer without earning more support, I think there will be a lot of internal pressure from the party asking her to drop out.

Now … if she makes the September debate, discount everything I’ve said. But I don’t think she’ll make it. And I’m not convinced she’ll hang around for the October debate either, even though the DNC has said it will keep the polling and donor threshold the same as the September debate. As I’m not sure how much those few extra weeks would matter to her.

nrakich: I think that’s totally defensible. She was one of my late-round sleeper picks.

geoffrey.skelley: On the one hand, I think Gillibrand has the resources to fight on. But on the other hand, she really might miss the September debate and maybe decide to pull the plug.

sarahf: I totally agree on the resources front. I just think she’ll care more about exiting when it’s still the “no hard feelings” period.

nrakich: To me, Gillibrand is the one candidate who was supposed to be in the top tier but who has flopped the most.

So she might be the Scott Walker of 2020 — the big-name candidate who drops out because it just didn’t come together.

geoffrey.skelley: Though at least Walker led the polls in Iowa early on. But yeah, Gillibrand has never caught fire. The fact that Gillibrand pushed for former Sen. Al Franken’s resignation over allegations of sexual misconduct could be part of it, but there are also just a lot of top-tier candidates in the race.

nrakich: She has an outside shot to make the October debate, as Geoffrey wrote yesterday. If she makes that, I agree, she’ll obviously stay in. But if she doesn’t, she’s not one of these vanity candidates like Steyer or de Blasio. She really thought she could win, and if things aren’t going according to plan, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see her pull the plug.

geoffrey.skelley: Right, she’s a politician who wants to win office. She’s not running just to bring an issue or two to the forefront.

sarahf: OK, Geoffrey, you’re up.

geoffrey.skelley: Well, Sarah didn’t take my pick, so I’m going with Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan. He’s already suspended his campaign once in the wake of the shooting in Dayton to return to Ohio, and he’s definitely not going to make the September debate. So I can see him dropping out by October.

Something to keep in mind with Ryan is that a successful reelection bid in the House is probably more important than sticking out the presidential race, as it could set him up to run for the Senate in 2022, when Republican Sen. Rob Portman’s seat is up, or for governor against GOP Gov. Mike DeWine.

I’m sure Ryan figured that a presidential run would help expand his name recognition and make connections for a potential future statewide bid. He’s routinely floated as a potential candidate for higher office, and with redistricting after the 2020 census, Ohio might lose a seat in reapportionment and put Ryan’s seat on the chopping block. Seeking to be Sherrod Brown 2.0 isn’t the worst strategy for an Ohio Democrat.

nrakich: Yeah, Ryan is an obvious pick … Although personally I’d rank him below the person I’m going to choose next…

But Ryan did run with a clear purpose: He really seems to believe in winning back the white factory worker for the Democratic Party. He also doesn’t face pressure to drop out to run for reelection, because Ohio law allows him to run for both.

On the other hand, he raised less in the second quarter — and had less cash on hand — than any other candidate FiveThirtyEight considers “major,” so he may not have the option to keep going.

sarahf: True. OK, Nathaniel, you’re up!

nrakich: My next pick is … Washington Gov. Jay Inslee!

The debates seem very important to Inslee. He tried to get one debate organized solely around his pet issue, climate change.

Yet he seems quite unlikely to make either the September or October debates.

I’m not sure why he would continue running if that happens.

geoffrey.skelley: Yeah, he’ll likely get the donors for September and October, but it seems unlikely he’ll get the polls he needs.

nrakich: Crucially, Inslee has the ability to run for a third term as governor in 2020.

But legally, he cannot be on the ballot for both governor and president.

And the potential gubernatorial field in Washington is in a holding pattern waiting for Inslee to make up his mind.

As a sitting governor, he is probably aware of pressures back home.

sarahf: Wow, two of the governors in the race out by October.

geoffrey.skelley: Inslee is a good pick. Once again, a candidate with some home-base electoral considerations. And as a governor who can run for a third term, that’s a pretty attractive alternative.

sarahf: When does Inslee have to decide if he’s going to run for a third term?

nrakich: The candidate filing deadline isn’t until May. But politically, that is untenable. He knows he needs to give other Democrats in Washington the chance to build up their campaigns before then if he’s not going to run.

geoffrey.skelley: Right. And this is a good moment to remind folks that a lot of states have multiple primaries: one for president and then a separate one for Congress or state offices. We’ve already talked about some states where this is true — Colorado, Massachusetts and Washington.

But there are also some states with consolidated primaries — their presidential and state-specific primaries take place the same day, which is the case in states like California, Illinois and Texas. Anyway, I mention this because the differences in filing deadlines can play a big part in the decision-making process for many of these candidates when it comes to deciding whether to drop out.

sarahf: OK, I’m up!

My second pick is less bold than my first, but arguably more likely to happen, at least by October anyway — Bill de Blasio.

De Blasio always had a tough road ahead of him, and as much as I can’t believe that the mayor of South Bend, Indiana, stands more of a chance than the mayor of New York City, that’s where I think we currently are. De Blasio strikes me as a candidate who never really stood a chance, or wasn’t running to win — although, I can’t exactly tell you what issue he was running on, per se.

And the most damning stat of his candidacy was his popularity at home — New Yorkers don’t like him and didn’t want him to run!

It’s like if those at home, who in theory know you best, don’t like you all that much, why try to catapult yourself onto a national stage? Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani was at least popular when he mounted his 2008 presidential bid.

nrakich: Oh, see, Sarah, that’s kind of why I don’t think he’ll drop out anytime soon.

De Blasio strikes me as the kind of candidate who isn’t really running to win, just to throw some rhetorical bombs and maybe have a good time.

So why let having almost no chance of winning the nomination stop you?

Reportedly, de Blasio doesn’t like his day job as New York City mayor. So I think he’ll try to prolong his presidential campaign as long as possible — to stay away from City Hall.

geoffrey.skelley: Resources could be a problem though — de Blasio only raised $1.1 million by the end of June, and had just 6,700 donors. Yeesh. So yeah, I can see him leaving just because he can’t afford to stay in.

sarahf: Yeesh is right. OK, Geoffrey. Last round! Make it count.

geoffrey.skelley: Alright, I think there’s an easy pick that I would take if we had four rounds, but given we only have three picks, I think I’m going to go for my sleeper choice: former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke. I think it’s possible that he might actually consider running for Senate again. He’s polling at 2 percent nationally with no obvious path for improvement, and he’s even worse off in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Not to mention, O’Rourke abandoned the campaign trail to go home to El Paso after the mass shooting there. So if I squint, I can see him deciding to drop the presidential bid for a more winnable race — at least in terms of his party’s nomination. At this point I think he would be much, much more likely to win the Democratic nomination for Senate in Texas than the presidency, and given his performance in the 2018 Senate contest, maybe he could even win the general. He’d be an underdog, but he’s been there before.

nrakich: Yesssss. I’m so glad someone chose him!

Mostly so I wouldn’t be tempted to waste my own pick on him

But I totally agree. O’Rourke has been home in El Paso helping his community heal. And that’s the kind of campaign break that leads to self-reflection — maybe the people at home are the ones you’d rather be trying to help.

To be more crassly political, it might also be a chance to step back and see that your campaign has been a pretty big flop so far — after you entered the presidential race expecting to be one of the four or five front-runners.

sarahf: Right, has anyone experienced a bigger flop in the polls?

nrakich: At one point, O’Rourke registered in the double digits — sometimes in third place! — in some polls right after his announcement. Now he’s at 2 points in the Real Clear Politics average.

geoffrey.skelley: Pete Buttigieg’s campaign really stepped all over O’Rourke.

sarahf: Right, and Nate wrote about this last month, but something tricky about O’Rourke is that his base (young, white, moderate Democrats) is smaller than you’d expect, so he’s running to attract a segment of the party that isn’t all that big to begin with. It doesn’t help that he’s faced stiff competition in candidates like Buttigieg or Warren in trying to diversify his appeal.

nrakich: O’Rourke also seems to be a guy prone to a lot of soul-searching. So if any candidate who has already made the September debate (as he has) is going to drop out for personal reasons before then, I bet it would be him.

geoffrey.skelley: And while he’s not leading in most Texas presidential primary polls, he still does OK, so I think he could successfully pivot to the Senate race. Anyway, I wouldn’t take it to the bank, but his leaving to go to El Paso really made me wonder if he might drop out.

sarahf: Good pick.

Alright, Nathaniel, you’re up!

nrakich: OK, I’m going to go with the easy pick, then (thanks, Geoffrey!): Montana Gov. Steve Bullock.

sarahf: Ahh!! Stole my pick.

nrakich: Bullock will continue to face a lot of pressure from party elders (and even in his Twitter replies!) to switch to the Senate race.

He’s similar to Hickenlooper in that regard, although frankly I think Democrats’ chances in Colorado’s Senate race don’t change that much if they nominate Hickenlooper vs. someone else. Whereas in Montana, Bullock is legitimately the only candidate who can probably put that Senate seat in play.

Now, like Hickenlooper, Bullock has denied any interest in the Senate.

But maybe, if he doesn’t make the September or October debates, that will change.

He is term-limited as governor, so the alternative is basically to go home and retire.

geoffrey.skelley: But unlike Hickenlooper, Bullock would probably enter a Senate general election in Montana as a clear underdog against Republican Sen. Steve Daines. The state did reelect Democratic Sen. Jon Tester last year, but Tester was an incumbent and it was a favorable environment for a Democrat. And even still, it was close! Bullock probably wouldn’t have as favorable as national environment working in his favor.

nrakich: That’s true.

sarahf: OK, last pick!! This pick is also not that surprising, but speaks to a similar trend of many of our picks (although, not all) — another lesser-known moderate in the party dropping out: Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet.

He’s done a good job cracking 1 percent pretty consistently in the polls, but he hasn’t achieved more than that, so I don’t see his campaign catching on otherwise.

That said, there’s not necessarily a good reason why he’d be the next to drop out (no pressing filing deadline), but he also strikes me as someone who is going to approach this fairly pragmatically, so if he thinks he doesn’t have support, I do think he’ll bow out.

What do you make of many of the more moderate members of the party being some of the first candidates to go?

nrakich: Yeah, we didn’t name a single person of color in this draft, and only one woman! I think the “electable white men” are definitely the favorites to drop out soon.

geoffrey.skelley: But some of them were likely to be also-rans to begin with (Ryan, Moulton, former Rep. John Delaney), but the fact that statewide electeds like Bennet, Bullock and Hickenlooper are struggling probably has a lot to do with both the mood of the party as well as Joe Biden’s presence in the race.

nrakich: Right, at the risk of stating the obvious, I think part of what we’re seeing is there’s already a popular electable white man in the race sucking up all the oxygen: Biden.

geoffrey.skelley: Though I will say that it’s hard for me to see some of these guys being able to pick up Biden’s mantle if the former vice president weren’t in the race. The fact that they’re ideologically similar to Biden could help, but sharing the same moderate approach as Biden will only take these candidates so far. It’s not like all of Biden’s backers would just default to these candidates.

nrakich: Agreed, but that’s why I think it’s less about being moderate and more about being a white man/being seen as “electable” (which is probably related).

Like, de Blasio and Inslee aren’t moderate.

But I agree, Geoffrey — the field is so crowded that I don’t think any one of them would be doing significantly better if Biden weren’t in the race. Biden’s support would probably spread out evenly rather than going entirely to, say, Hickenlooper.

But even in that case, maybe someone like Inslee would be polling at 3 percent and would make the debates. So it could have made a difference for some of these candidates.

sarahf: OK, let’s recap. Here’s our teams. Who wants to vote first?

Who will drop out before the October debate?

Round Geoff Nathaniel Sarah 1 John Hickenlooper Seth Moulton Kirsten Gillibrand 2 Tim Ryan Jay Inslee Bill de Blasio 3 Beto O’Rourke Steve Bullock Michael Bennet

  I think I’m going to go with the safe pick here. Nathaniel’s draft picks seem the most likely on average to actually drop out before October.

nrakich: Yeah, I like my team. But I appreciate how you guys were willing to pick some dark horses! You should get extra credit if those turn out to be true.

geoffrey.skelley: I agree that Nathaniel’s team probably has the best overall chance to go three for three on dropping out.

nrakich: But let’s be real — will even two of these nine candidates still be in the race come Iowa?

[ecoorganic]

Mailbag: Future Changes to NFL's TV Packages, Impact of Canceled College Games

Plus, the impact a canceled college season has on the NFL, what to expect from Gardner Minshew in Year 2, whether this season will be seen as legitimate and more.

It’s a sad day in the football world. Blue-blood programs that are 41 (Michigan), 33 (Penn State), 32 (USC) and 30 (Ohio State and Nebraska) years older than the NFL itself won’t be playing this fall. And no matter who you blame, it’s a shame that

we’re here.

The slow death march college football seems to be on will absolute reverberate in the NFL world. We’re going to get to that, and a whole lot more, in this week’s mailbag. …

From Brock Ascher (@BrockAscher): What happens to NFL TV rights in the near future? Will I ever be able to get rid of DirecTV? Will I ever be able to buy a one-team out of market package?

Brock, my guess is the over-the-air packages will probably remain the same. I think Thursday night is the one variable in all this, with the potential Disney snaps it up so it can put either MNF or TNF on ABC, with the other staying on ESPN, ideal for them for cable-fee reasons. (My guess is Fox is finished with TNF.) The biggest difference you’d notice could come in structure. I was told by two execs that the NFL has discussed jettisoning the divvying up of Sunday afternoons by conference (the cross-flex would be a precursor to that).

It’d give the NFL more flexibility and, in this scenario, you could have Fox and CBS simply split up the games, via some sort of “draft.”

After that, we can dive into how streaming (where the younger audience lives) plays into all of this, and how the Sunday Ticket package you’re referencing factors into that. AT&T now owns DirecTV, which has the Ticket through 2022. The Ticket is vital to DirecTV's survival. How much does AT&T care about that? We’ll see, because the NFL has discussed the idea of moving the Ticket to a streaming service, where a younger audience lives.

You can imagine what the Ticket would be worth to ESPN-Plus, Peacock, HBO Max, DAZN or Amazon Prime. How many people would jump on those services if the Ticket was there? Based on DirecTV’s numbers, the answer is a lot. And part of the NFL’s concern about production quality in doing something like this may have been alleviated with how smoothly Amazon Prime’s venture into creating such a product for the Premier League over in the UK went.

As for the a la carte end of this, we’ll see. I think that’s coming, but it might be further down the line, and whoever were to win the Ticket rights would be involved in all of that. The bottom line here: Media’s changing fast, and the NFL is preparing for that.

From Jonathan Barakat (@jonathanbarakat): How do you think Gardner Minshew will play this year? Will he exceed expectations? Also what do you think of D.J. Chark coming into his third year?

Jonathan, I’ll give you what I like and what I don’t like about Gardner Minshew’s situation.

What I like: Minshew gets to play for Jay Gruden, who’s immediately made a big difference for young quarterbacks in both his previous NFL homes (Kirk Cousins in D.C. and Andy Dalton in Cincinnati), and in one of those cases actually did it with a rookie coming off the lockout, which is somewhat analogous to this situation. Also, D.J. Chark gives Minshew a strong No. 1 target, and Doug Marrone will use the run game to support him.

What I don’t like: It’s pretty clear where Jacksonville stands on Cam Robinson, and having an issue at left tackle isn’t great—particularly in a year when it’s going to be tough to work out offensive line issues on the fly. Also, the viability of the run game rides largely on Leonard Fournette, who hasn’t been the most reliable guy over his first three NFL seasons. And beyond Chark, there are question marks at receiver and tight end.

So all in all, it’s not a complete mess, but not really setup for Minshew to have a breakthrough sophomore campaign.

From Roberta Wears A Mask You Should Too (@AceandJasper): How will the teams take care of season ticket holders who won't get to sit in their front row seats even for a game or two?

Most teams are rolling payments over or refunding—and I can’t imagine any haven’t already given their season-ticket holders the choice to opt out and hold on to the rights to their seats in 2021. I think, at this point, we know that the season isn’t going to start with full stadiums anywhere. How will it end? That’s four months from now. And I think the last four months should be enough to keep anyone from making predictions that far ahead.

From Erik Ghirarduzzi (@eghirarduzzi): Given the circumstance around this season, currently known and ones yet to come, how legit would a SB winner be? There are teams at a competitive disadvantage, through no fault of their own, already and the season hasn't started.

Erik, this is a great question—I do believe this year will be remembered, if it’s completed, like the strike years of 1982 and ’87. In ’82, teams played nine games, the divisions were temporarily abolished, and a 16-team playoff was staged. In ’87, just six quarterbacks broke 3,000 yards passing, and just two backs reached 1,000 yards rushing. In both years, interestingly enough, Joe Gibbs led Washington to a championship.

Now, I don’t think the season necessarily will be cut to nine games (as ’82 was), nor will you have the oddity of replacement players en masse (like ’87 had). But I do think there’ll be aspects of the season that will go sideways, and the NFL, to its credit, knows it and is preparing for that.

So how are ’82 and ’87 remembered? I think most people who didn’t live it (I was way too young, 2, to remember the former, and have faint memories of the latter) probably wouldn’t look at championships or accolades from that year (John Elway was MVP and Reggie White DPOY in ’87) much differently. But it doesn’t take much Google acumen to discover how weird all the numbers from those seasons look.

To me, that feels like the likely result of this year.

From Dan Heiserman (@HeisermanDan): Has any player in history ever been on more teams than Josh McCown?

Speaking of Google, Dan, I didn’t know the answer to this and was legitimately interested, so I looked and found that legend-of-the-aughts J.T. O’Sullivan was on 11 (!) different NFL teams (Saints, Packers, Bears, Vikings, Patriots, Panthers, Lions, Niners, Bengals, Chargers, Raiders), which unbelievably matches McCown’s number (Cardinals, Lions, Raiders, Dolphins, Panthers, Niners, Bears, Bucs, Browns, Jets, Eagles).

A little more bumping around the internet showed that kicker Bill Cundiff was, at one point or another, with 13 different NFL teams (Cowboys, Bucs, Packers, Saints, Falcons, Chiefs, Lions, Browns, Ravens, Washington, Niners, Jets, Bills). And I’m sure there are other backup quarterbacks and kickers—playing positions where careers are longer, which facilitates this sort of movement—out there like these guys.

All of them must have pretty cool jersey displays in their basements.

From SUPER BOWL SUPER BROWNS HELL YEAH!!! (@WAH3rd): Should I still go back to the party barn and start drinking at 7 a.m. and yell at people on Saturdays this fall like I used to?

This is a very specific message just for me and a lot of other people who were in legit mourning on Tuesday night—and this will be absolutely be one of the Lane Avenue casualties (right there with the Varsity Club) of the depressing news we all got. It’s hard to describe the Party Barn if you don’t know what it is already, so I won’t try.

And the answer is yes.

From Skeeter6265 (@skeeter6265): Do you think Ohio will beat Michigan?

I was very excited for Michigan to celebrate the 20th anniversary of its last win in Columbus—that was in the fall of my junior year—this November. Maybe that team can have a Zoom reunion to commemorate it now.

From FootballFan64 (@FFan64): With college coaches out of the running for NFL openings since their season is moving to the spring, which NFL coordinators do you expect to be coveted for any newly vacated HC positions? Who is this year’s Matt Rhule?

Well, Football Fan, I’m not sure that colleges playing in the spring (if that even happens) would prevent NFL teams from making runs at coaches at that level. If, and again it’s a big if, college football goes in the spring semester, my guess would be the season would start in February (you can’t just start the season the minute kids get back to campus). The NFL coaching carousel is spinning at the beginning of January. So there’d be time.

The NFL coordinator names you’ll hear most are some of the usual suspects from the last couple cycles—Patriots OC Josh McDaniels, Chiefs OC Eric Bieniemy, Ravens coordinators Greg Roman and Wink Martindale, 49ers DC Robert Saleh and Saints DC Dennis Allen would be on that list. I’d also just keep an eye on Falcons DC Raheem Morris, Chiefs pass-game coordinator Mike Kafka and Titans OC Arthur Smith as names that could pop up.

As for the next Matt Rhule, the NFL will continue to have interest in Oklahoma’s Lincoln Riley, and Ohio State’s Ryan Day is beginning to be held in that sort of regard among those in the pros. But both those guys have jobs that are very well-paying and, in reality, better than the majority of jobs they’d find in the NFL. Stanford’s David Shaw and Northwestern’s Pat Fitzgerald have long been on the radar of the league, but haven’t shown much appetite for leaving their alma maters. And Minnesota’s P.J. Fleck is a fun name to keep an eye on.

From Shawn Tangen (@SMTangen): How is Kevin Warren viewed within NFL circles?

Shawn, I’d say it’s pretty mixed. And I got some pretty strong reaction from certain corners of the NFL about the Big Ten commissioner (and former Vikings executive) after the conference canceled its season on Tuesday.

Warren was a polarizing figure inside the Minnesota locker room during the Adrian Peterson scandal of 2014—Peterson felt like Warren betrayed him to the point where Warren’s promotion to COO was a sticking point in the star’s contract negotiation. That was a situation that coach Mike Zimmer had to manage, and ultimately defuse, on the ground with the players, and it’s just one example in his NFL past where he’s rankled co-workers.

On top of that, many NFL people felt like Warren’s move to the Big 10 was with designs on eventually making a run at becoming NFL commissioner down the line. In that regard, the final result of his management of the last week (a result we won’t have for a while) will probably go a long way in determining whether those aspirations are realistic or not. I’d just hope his decisions here weren’t made with that in mind.

From Brycen Papp (@BrycenPapp): Do you think this season will be a massive shift in the way the draft process works? Will the NFL lower the requirements for college players to be draft eligible to two years instead of three?

Brycen, I think there will be a shift to the draft process to a degree, and we’re going to get into that in the GamePlan on Thursday. But I do want to get into your question on the NFL’s age requirement, because it’s a fascinating one—and something we covered extensively on the podcast this week.

I believe many of the best players in the Big 10 and Pac-12, from places like Ohio State, Oregon, USC, Penn State and Michigan, will sign with agents now, and go into draft prep. Because of that, and how the Big 10/Pac-12 shutdown devalues this college season, I think we’ll also see some attrition from the other conferences. That could lead to some players who only played two years of college football and skipped the required third year out of high school, going high in next April’s draft.

That, in turn, could open the door in the future for players with two good years on their resume skipping their junior year to protect themselves and prepare for the draft—in the same way Christian McCaffrey skipping his bowl game in 2016 gave others cover to do the same. At that point, the idea that players need three years of development to be NFL-ready gets broken down, and now you have guys taking a “gap year” instead.

Which isn’t good for the players, for college football or for the NFL.

It’s important to remember here too that it’s not college football keeping guys in school for three years. It’s pro football. The three-year rule is an NFL rule. And when Maurice Clarett and Mike Williams sued to become eligible for the draft in 2004, it wasn’t a school, a conference or the NCAA they sued. It was the NFL. So the ball would be in the NFL’s court on this one, if the situation comes to a head.

From Sam Perrone (@samjp33): Do you think the NFL would be willing to move the draft if the college football season bleeds into the spring?

I think, Sam, the NFL will do whatever it needs to in order to support the golden goose that is college football. Why? College football is very good for the NFL. And primarily for three reasons.

1) It’s a free minor league. The NFL, unlike the other sports, doesn’t have to fund a complex minor-league system to develop college-aged players. The expense of doing so in a sport like football would be astronomical and the opportunity to monetize it, as we’ve seen with other start-up leagues in the past, would be pretty limited.

2) It’s a marketing monster for star players coming in. Say what you will about Tim Tebow and Johnny Manziel—they were legit sports-world celebrities before they lifted a single dumbbell in preparation for the draft. Everyone knows who Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovialoa and Chase Young are. Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley were household names as collegians. And all of that is great for the NFL on so many different levels.

3) College football is the foundation for the NFL’s tentpole offseason event. The draft is The Draft because of college football. We’ve been watching most of the top players for years. It marries two wildly popular entertainment entities. The draft itself wouldn’t be nearly the event it is without college football.

So, in order to protect the sanctity of a spring college football season (as much of a sham as it might be) would the NFL be willing to move the draft back a few weeks? Well, of course it would be.

• Question or comment? Email us.

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[biofunmy]

The N.B.A. Elite Are Now From Everywhere

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It was at the 2018 All-Star Game in Los Angeles that I asked Steve Nash, one of the foremost imports in N.B.A. history, if the league would ever be ready — really ready — for a Rest of the World vs. United States format for its annual midseason showcase.

“We’re getting there,” Nash said then.

Nash suggested that perhaps 2022 would be “the time to try it,” as a 30th anniversary tribute to the original Dream Team that wowed the world at the Barcelona Olympics.

That forecast is looking smarter every day.

Understandably somewhat lost last week amid the very sad news of the former N.B.A. commissioner David Stern’s death was the bulletin from the league office detailing the first batch of returns from fan balloting for next month’s All-Star Game in Chicago.

The leading vote-getter in the Eastern Conference: Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo from Greece.

The leading vote-getter in the West: Dallas’s Luka Doncic of Slovenia.

Fan voting will always generate outrage for one reason or another. Boston’s little-used Tacko Fall, who placed sixth among East frontcourt candidates, and the Los Angeles Lakers’ Alex Caruso, who landed at No. 8 among West guards, were the primary causes for complaints from the opening round of polling. Yet you scarcely heard a quibble about the fact that LeBron James trailed both Giannis and Luka even though he has joined Anthony Davis in powering the Lakers to a 29-7 start.

Antetokounmpo is the league’s reigning Most Valuable Player Award winner and is playing at an even higher level this season. Doncic has yet to appear in an N.B.A. playoff game, but he has established himself as a consensus top-10 player by averaging a ridiculous 29.7 points, 9.7 rebounds and 8.9 assists in his sophomore season — leading the upstart Mavericks to a surprising 23-13 record in the process.

Unlike Nash’s era, when the N.B.A. certainly featured numerous successful international players but only a few who were considered truly elite, there are several at that level besides Giannis and Luka.

The Cameroonian duo of Philadelphia’s Joel Embiid and Toronto’s Pascal Siakam have their own gaudy stat lines that make them All-Star locks.

Denver’s Nikola Jokic (Serbia), despite some slippage in his numbers from last season, remains the unquestioned fulcrum for the team with the second-best record in the West.

Utah’s Rudy Gobert (France) is not assured of making his All-Star breakthrough next month because a defense-first reputation like his historically doesn’t help much in All-Star campaigning. But Gobert has made such an all-around impact for the Jazz that you can find his name on Basketball Reference’s M.V.P. tracker at a solid No. 10.

Minnesota’s Karl-Anthony Towns, who was born in New Jersey but represents the Dominican Republic internationally, played in the past two All-Star Games and would be a cinch for a third appearance if not for a recent knee injury — and the Timberwolves’ slump to a 14-21 record from a 10-8 start.

Throw in top All-Star contenders such as Philadelphia’s Ben Simmons (Australia) and Indiana’s Domantas Sabonis (Lithuania) — as well as All-Stars of recent vintage such as Orlando’s Nikola Vucevic (Montenegro), Philadelphia’s Al Horford (Dominican Republic), Toronto’s Marc Gasol (Spain), Miami’s Goran Dragic (Slovenia) and Dallas’s Kristaps Porzingis (Latvia) — and the point becomes clear.

There may not quite be 12 internationals playing at an indisputable All-Star level as we speak, but it’s increasingly fair to ask, as Nash predicted, if we’re all that far away.

Porzingis, after all, is working his way back to an All-Star standard after a lengthy injury layoff. Two of Nash’s young fellow Canadians — Oklahoma City’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Denver’s Jamal Murray — have also flashed All-Star potential. Recent top-five lottery picks include Phoenix’s Deandre Ayton (Bahamas) and the Knicks’ R.J. Barrett (Canada).

The way things are going, as we dribble into a new decade, it looks as though mathematical fairness is the only deterrent to N.B.A. Commissioner Adam Silver’s trying out a United States/World format.

There were 108 foreign-born players on opening-night rosters this season, meaning there were more than 300 American-born players. It simply wouldn’t be equitable for two groups of such disparate size to battle for 12 All-Star spots each.

But I also don’t believe that the league is married to its two-year-old system in which the two leading vote-getters, as captains, pick their respective squads without regard to conference. For all the anticipation and chatter that the made-for-television selection show generates, momentum from the first game played using this format in L.A. in 2018, after years of waning interest, did not carry over to the 2019 edition in Charlotte.

Don’t forget that Silver, when he initially proposed the introduction of an in-season tournament starting with the 2020-21 season, was looking at the final four of that competition as a potential replacement for the All-Star Game entirely. The league ultimately backed off that proposal when teams and the players’ union voiced resistance to an in-season tournament that would fall any later on the league’s calendar than December, but Silver’s original thinking suggests that the N.B.A. remains concerned about how flat All-Star Games tend to feel.

At the M.I.T. Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in Boston in March, remember, Silver himself said the 2019 All-Star Game “didn’t work” and admitted that the most recent changes were akin to putting “an earring on a pig.”

Maybe the starry imports who have succeeded Nash, Dirk Nowitzki, Pau Gasol, Tony Parker and all the international stars from the last decade will never get their chance to engage the Americans in an All-Star duel. Maybe restricting that format to the Rising Stars Game featuring first- and second-year players, as the N.B.A. has done for the past five seasons, is the right call.

Yet the mere fact that the debate only gets stronger may be as fitting a tribute as we can muster for Stern — since taking the N.B.A. global before any other North American sport, and to a much greater degree, is such a huge slice of his legacy.

The Scoop @TheSteinLine

This newsletter is OUR newsletter. So please weigh in with what you’d like to see here. To get your hoops-loving friends and family involved, please forward this email to them so they can jump in the conversation. If you’re not a subscriber, you can sign up here.

You ask; I answer. Every week in this space, I’ll field three questions posed via email at marcstein-newsletter@nytimes.com. (Please include your first and last name, as well as the city you’re writing in from, and make sure “Corner Three” is in the subject line.)

Q: Where would you rank David Stern as a commissioner compared to those in other sports like Pete Rozelle in the N.F.L., Bowie Kuhn or Fay Vincent in baseball, etc.? — Bob Purcell (San Diego)

Stein: I covered a smattering of all the major North American men’s team sports in my youth, but I have been covering the N.B.A. almost exclusively since February 1994. So it’s not really fair for me to answer this one.

I would naturally put Stern ahead of all his competitors because I know so much more about his work. Most of my older peers always say that mythical top spot has to go to either Stern or Rozelle. But as our own Harvey Araton sagely noted when I asked him, Stern’s edge may well be that on his watch the N.B.A. achieved relevance on social, cultural and international fronts that the N.F.L. — for all its advantages in TV prominence and in-stadium attendance — can’t match.

What I can say with greater confidence is that I will always wish Stern, upon ceding his office to Adam Silver in February 2014, would have spent a few years trying to bring order to a sport he loved almost as much as I do: tennis.

Tennis has always suffered greatly from the lack of a commissioner who could exert authority over the sport’s many (too many, really) competing factions. But Stern’s focus, for pretty much his entire adult life, was the N.B.A. and growing/enhancing/protecting his league. So I am forced to concede that it probably would have been hard for him to muster anywhere near the same passion for another sport in a working capacity.

Q: I have to agree with the recent comment here that the Raptors are mostly ignored by the American sports media. Maybe you are an exception, but why aren’t more people writing about the Chris Boucher story alone? — Kent Goodwin (Stowe, Vt.)

Stein: I think we’ve reached the point in this discussion where nothing I say is going to persuade the skeptics. But I think I will be vindicated when Coach of the Year Award voting results are released in June.

The Raptors awoke on Tuesday on a 54-win pace. If they maintain that level for the rest of the regular season, given the ridiculous string of injuries they’ve faced along the way, Nick Nurse will have a real shot at winning the C.O.Y. prize — and thus prove how closely the Raptors are being monitored south of the border in the post-Kawhi Leonard era.

It was suggested to me last week by a trusted insider that the Raptors just might surprise us again before the Feb. 6 trade deadline and emerge as buyers to fortify themselves for another playoff run. The widespread assumption coming into the season held that Toronto would trade the veteran likes of Kyle Lowry, Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka to prepare for a reset in the summer of 2021 built around the free-agency pursuit of Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo. (I predicted as much myself.)

The safe bet remains that Masai Ujiri, Toronto’s president of basketball operations, will avoid any deals that affect the Raptors’ cap space in 2021. But the Raptors will be a huge source of curiosity over the next month — thanks in part to the unexpected contributions from the likes of Boucher, Terence Davis, Matt Thomas, Oshae Brissett and O.G. Anunoby — whether or not they’re generating reams of coverage.

Q: How convenient for you. Now you get to expand your hate for Houston beyond basketball. — @venramamurthy from Twitter

Stein: This tweet came in response to my social media cheering for the Buffalo Bills as a proud former Western New Yorker — which lasted until the Bills unraveled in Saturday’s A.F.C. wild-card loss to the Houston Texans to extend their drought without a playoff win to 1995.

The supposition from Venkat is that rooting against the Texans was a natural for me because I “hate” his Rockets.

We’re still not past this stuff in 2020, friends?

My only issues with Houston, here in the real world, are the traffic, how hard it is to get to Cafe Adel for some wonderful Bosnian food in that traffic when staying downtown and the oppressive weather from June to September (my quarrel with every city in Texas — including the one I live in).

Happy New Year!

Numbers Game

$2,615,000

In 20 years as the team owner of the Dallas Mavericks, Mark Cuban has accrued more than $2.6 million in publicly announced fines from the N.B.A., according to this ledger maintained by the longtime Mavericks historian Patricia Bender. Not all fines issued by the league office are made public.

6

The N.B.A.’s two Florida teams sport quite the contrast with their records in overtime games so far this season: Miami is 6-0, and Orlando is 0-0.

16-19

The Pacers finished three games under .500 last season after losing Victor Oladipo to a ruptured quadriceps muscle in his right leg and were swept by Boston in a first-round playoff series. After acquiring Malcolm Brogdon in an off-season sign-and-trade with Milwaukee, Indiana is on a 51-win pace this season without Oladipo but still doesn’t know when he will return.

3-2

The potential downside of the Los Angeles Clippers’ well-chronicled “load management” strategy with Kawhi Leonard is that they may have to settle for a playoff seed that forces them to play the Lakers sooner than the conference finals. Thanks to an underwhelming 3-2 mark since their impressive Christmas Day defeat of the Lakers, Kawhi and Co. awoke on Tuesday as the West’s No. 4 team — which has the Clippers on course for a second-round playoff encounter with their Staples Center cotenants.

20

The Lakers’ 20 blocked shots in a home win on Sunday over Detroit were a rarity. According to Basketball Reference, no N.B.A. team had recorded at least 20 blocked shots in a game since it happened twice in 2001: Toronto with 23 against Atlanta in March 2001 and the Raptors with 20 against Golden State in November 2001.

Hit me up anytime on Twitter (@TheSteinLine) or Facebook (@MarcSteinNBA) or Instagram (@marcsteinnba). Send any other feedback to marcstein-newsletter@nytimes.com.

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Mailbag: Future Changes to NFL's TV Packages, Impact of Canceled College Games

Plus, the impact a canceled college season has on the NFL, what to expect from Gardner Minshew in Year 2, whether this season will be seen as legitimate and more.

It’s a sad day in the football world. Blue-blood programs that are 41 (Michigan), 33 (Penn State), 32 (USC) and 30 (Ohio State and Nebraska) years older than the NFL itself won’t be playing this fall. And no matter who you blame, it’s a shame that

we’re here.

The slow death march college football seems to be on will absolute reverberate in the NFL world. We’re going to get to that, and a whole lot more, in this week’s mailbag. …

From Brock Ascher (@BrockAscher): What happens to NFL TV rights in the near future? Will I ever be able to get rid of DirecTV? Will I ever be able to buy a one-team out of market package?

Brock, my guess is the over-the-air packages will probably remain the same. I think Thursday night is the one variable in all this, with the potential Disney snaps it up so it can put either MNF or TNF on ABC, with the other staying on ESPN, ideal for them for cable-fee reasons. (My guess is Fox is finished with TNF.) The biggest difference you’d notice could come in structure. I was told by two execs that the NFL has discussed jettisoning the divvying up of Sunday afternoons by conference (the cross-flex would be a precursor to that).

It’d give the NFL more flexibility and, in this scenario, you could have Fox and CBS simply split up the games, via some sort of “draft.”

After that, we can dive into how streaming (where the younger audience lives) plays into all of this, and how the Sunday Ticket package you’re referencing factors into that. AT&T now owns DirecTV, which has the Ticket through 2022. The Ticket is vital to DirecTV's survival. How much does AT&T care about that? We’ll see, because the NFL has discussed the idea of moving the Ticket to a streaming service, where a younger audience lives.

You can imagine what the Ticket would be worth to ESPN-Plus, Peacock, HBO Max, DAZN or Amazon Prime. How many people would jump on those services if the Ticket was there? Based on DirecTV’s numbers, the answer is a lot. And part of the NFL’s concern about production quality in doing something like this may have been alleviated with how smoothly Amazon Prime’s venture into creating such a product for the Premier League over in the UK went.

As for the a la carte end of this, we’ll see. I think that’s coming, but it might be further down the line, and whoever were to win the Ticket rights would be involved in all of that. The bottom line here: Media’s changing fast, and the NFL is preparing for that.

From Jonathan Barakat (@jonathanbarakat): How do you think Gardner Minshew will play this year? Will he exceed expectations? Also what do you think of D.J. Chark coming into his third year?

Jonathan, I’ll give you what I like and what I don’t like about Gardner Minshew’s situation.

What I like: Minshew gets to play for Jay Gruden, who’s immediately made a big difference for young quarterbacks in both his previous NFL homes (Kirk Cousins in D.C. and Andy Dalton in Cincinnati), and in one of those cases actually did it with a rookie coming off the lockout, which is somewhat analogous to this situation. Also, D.J. Chark gives Minshew a strong No. 1 target, and Doug Marrone will use the run game to support him.

What I don’t like: It’s pretty clear where Jacksonville stands on Cam Robinson, and having an issue at left tackle isn’t great—particularly in a year when it’s going to be tough to work out offensive line issues on the fly. Also, the viability of the run game rides largely on Leonard Fournette, who hasn’t been the most reliable guy over his first three NFL seasons. And beyond Chark, there are question marks at receiver and tight end.

So all in all, it’s not a complete mess, but not really setup for Minshew to have a breakthrough sophomore campaign.

From Roberta Wears A Mask You Should Too (@AceandJasper): How will the teams take care of season ticket holders who won't get to sit in their front row seats even for a game or two?

Most teams are rolling payments over or refunding—and I can’t imagine any haven’t already given their season-ticket holders the choice to opt out and hold on to the rights to their seats in 2021. I think, at this point, we know that the season isn’t going to start with full stadiums anywhere. How will it end? That’s four months from now. And I think the last four months should be enough to keep anyone from making predictions that far ahead.

From Erik Ghirarduzzi (@eghirarduzzi): Given the circumstance around this season, currently known and ones yet to come, how legit would a SB winner be? There are teams at a competitive disadvantage, through no fault of their own, already and the season hasn't started.

Erik, this is a great question—I do believe this year will be remembered, if it’s completed, like the strike years of 1982 and ’87. In ’82, teams played nine games, the divisions were temporarily abolished, and a 16-team playoff was staged. In ’87, just six quarterbacks broke 3,000 yards passing, and just two backs reached 1,000 yards rushing. In both years, interestingly enough, Joe Gibbs led Washington to a championship.

Now, I don’t think the season necessarily will be cut to nine games (as ’82 was), nor will you have the oddity of replacement players en masse (like ’87 had). But I do think there’ll be aspects of the season that will go sideways, and the NFL, to its credit, knows it and is preparing for that.

So how are ’82 and ’87 remembered? I think most people who didn’t live it (I was way too young, 2, to remember the former, and have faint memories of the latter) probably wouldn’t look at championships or accolades from that year (John Elway was MVP and Reggie White DPOY in ’87) much differently. But it doesn’t take much Google acumen to discover how weird all the numbers from those seasons look.

To me, that feels like the likely result of this year.

From Dan Heiserman (@HeisermanDan): Has any player in history ever been on more teams than Josh McCown?

Speaking of Google, Dan, I didn’t know the answer to this and was legitimately interested, so I looked and found that legend-of-the-aughts J.T. O’Sullivan was on 11 (!) different NFL teams (Saints, Packers, Bears, Vikings, Patriots, Panthers, Lions, Niners, Bengals, Chargers, Raiders), which unbelievably matches McCown’s number (Cardinals, Lions, Raiders, Dolphins, Panthers, Niners, Bears, Bucs, Browns, Jets, Eagles).

A little more bumping around the internet showed that kicker Bill Cundiff was, at one point or another, with 13 different NFL teams (Cowboys, Bucs, Packers, Saints, Falcons, Chiefs, Lions, Browns, Ravens, Washington, Niners, Jets, Bills). And I’m sure there are other backup quarterbacks and kickers—playing positions where careers are longer, which facilitates this sort of movement—out there like these guys.

All of them must have pretty cool jersey displays in their basements.

From SUPER BOWL SUPER BROWNS HELL YEAH!!! (@WAH3rd): Should I still go back to the party barn and start drinking at 7 a.m. and yell at people on Saturdays this fall like I used to?

This is a very specific message just for me and a lot of other people who were in legit mourning on Tuesday night—and this will be absolutely be one of the Lane Avenue casualties (right there with the Varsity Club) of the depressing news we all got. It’s hard to describe the Party Barn if you don’t know what it is already, so I won’t try.

And the answer is yes.

From Skeeter6265 (@skeeter6265): Do you think Ohio will beat Michigan?

I was very excited for Michigan to celebrate the 20th anniversary of its last win in Columbus—that was in the fall of my junior year—this November. Maybe that team can have a Zoom reunion to commemorate it now.

From FootballFan64 (@FFan64): With college coaches out of the running for NFL openings since their season is moving to the spring, which NFL coordinators do you expect to be coveted for any newly vacated HC positions? Who is this year’s Matt Rhule?

Well, Football Fan, I’m not sure that colleges playing in the spring (if that even happens) would prevent NFL teams from making runs at coaches at that level. If, and again it’s a big if, college football goes in the spring semester, my guess would be the season would start in February (you can’t just start the season the minute kids get back to campus). The NFL coaching carousel is spinning at the beginning of January. So there’d be time.

The NFL coordinator names you’ll hear most are some of the usual suspects from the last couple cycles—Patriots OC Josh McDaniels, Chiefs OC Eric Bieniemy, Ravens coordinators Greg Roman and Wink Martindale, 49ers DC Robert Saleh and Saints DC Dennis Allen would be on that list. I’d also just keep an eye on Falcons DC Raheem Morris, Chiefs pass-game coordinator Mike Kafka and Titans OC Arthur Smith as names that could pop up.

As for the next Matt Rhule, the NFL will continue to have interest in Oklahoma’s Lincoln Riley, and Ohio State’s Ryan Day is beginning to be held in that sort of regard among those in the pros. But both those guys have jobs that are very well-paying and, in reality, better than the majority of jobs they’d find in the NFL. Stanford’s David Shaw and Northwestern’s Pat Fitzgerald have long been on the radar of the league, but haven’t shown much appetite for leaving their alma maters. And Minnesota’s P.J. Fleck is a fun name to keep an eye on.

From Shawn Tangen (@SMTangen): How is Kevin Warren viewed within NFL circles?

Shawn, I’d say it’s pretty mixed. And I got some pretty strong reaction from certain corners of the NFL about the Big Ten commissioner (and former Vikings executive) after the conference canceled its season on Tuesday.

Warren was a polarizing figure inside the Minnesota locker room during the Adrian Peterson scandal of 2014—Peterson felt like Warren betrayed him to the point where Warren’s promotion to COO was a sticking point in the star’s contract negotiation. That was a situation that coach Mike Zimmer had to manage, and ultimately defuse, on the ground with the players, and it’s just one example in his NFL past where he’s rankled co-workers.

On top of that, many NFL people felt like Warren’s move to the Big 10 was with designs on eventually making a run at becoming NFL commissioner down the line. In that regard, the final result of his management of the last week (a result we won’t have for a while) will probably go a long way in determining whether those aspirations are realistic or not. I’d just hope his decisions here weren’t made with that in mind.

From Brycen Papp (@BrycenPapp): Do you think this season will be a massive shift in the way the draft process works? Will the NFL lower the requirements for college players to be draft eligible to two years instead of three?

Brycen, I think there will be a shift to the draft process to a degree, and we’re going to get into that in the GamePlan on Thursday. But I do want to get into your question on the NFL’s age requirement, because it’s a fascinating one—and something we covered extensively on the podcast this week.

I believe many of the best players in the Big 10 and Pac-12, from places like Ohio State, Oregon, USC, Penn State and Michigan, will sign with agents now, and go into draft prep. Because of that, and how the Big 10/Pac-12 shutdown devalues this college season, I think we’ll also see some attrition from the other conferences. That could lead to some players who only played two years of college football and skipped the required third year out of high school, going high in next April’s draft.

That, in turn, could open the door in the future for players with two good years on their resume skipping their junior year to protect themselves and prepare for the draft—in the same way Christian McCaffrey skipping his bowl game in 2016 gave others cover to do the same. At that point, the idea that players need three years of development to be NFL-ready gets broken down, and now you have guys taking a “gap year” instead.

Which isn’t good for the players, for college football or for the NFL.

It’s important to remember here too that it’s not college football keeping guys in school for three years. It’s pro football. The three-year rule is an NFL rule. And when Maurice Clarett and Mike Williams sued to become eligible for the draft in 2004, it wasn’t a school, a conference or the NCAA they sued. It was the NFL. So the ball would be in the NFL’s court on this one, if the situation comes to a head.

From Sam Perrone (@samjp33): Do you think the NFL would be willing to move the draft if the college football season bleeds into the spring?

I think, Sam, the NFL will do whatever it needs to in order to support the golden goose that is college football. Why? College football is very good for the NFL. And primarily for three reasons.

1) It’s a free minor league. The NFL, unlike the other sports, doesn’t have to fund a complex minor-league system to develop college-aged players. The expense of doing so in a sport like football would be astronomical and the opportunity to monetize it, as we’ve seen with other start-up leagues in the past, would be pretty limited.

2) It’s a marketing monster for star players coming in. Say what you will about Tim Tebow and Johnny Manziel—they were legit sports-world celebrities before they lifted a single dumbbell in preparation for the draft. Everyone knows who Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovialoa and Chase Young are. Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley were household names as collegians. And all of that is great for the NFL on so many different levels.

3) College football is the foundation for the NFL’s tentpole offseason event. The draft is The Draft because of college football. We’ve been watching most of the top players for years. It marries two wildly popular entertainment entities. The draft itself wouldn’t be nearly the event it is without college football.

So, in order to protect the sanctity of a spring college football season (as much of a sham as it might be) would the NFL be willing to move the draft back a few weeks? Well, of course it would be.

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