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isthatbloodonhisshirt · 5 years

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New Year’s Wrap Up!

Thank you @corancoranthemagicalman for tagging me in this! I honestly don’t ever think about these things ahaha |D So this is kinda cool tbh. Thank you :3

Does my current WIP technically count in this case? I’ll pretend it does, I mean, I WROTE it in 2019, just didn’t post it until December 30th |D lol So technically, it counts, it’s only a WIP on Ao3, not on my computer :P

Fics that you wrote in 2019

Up Down Lock Unlock (Sterek, 42k, G)

Through the Window (Sterek, 6.8k, G)

Business Skype (Sterek, 6k, G)

It Was a Wednesday (Sterek, 80k, M)

Be Still My Heart (You’re Beating Too Loud and my Neighbour’s a Bitch) (Sterek, 34k, T+)

What Fresh Twilight Bullshit is This? (Sterek, 196k, E)

Everyone Needs a Little Mischief in their Life (Sterek, 18k, T+)

There’s no Escape for the Potato Man (Sterek, 54k, T+)

SuperWing, Stucky and SlaDick, Oh My! (Sterek, 34.8k, T+)

Quack (Stiles Stop Calling It That) (Sterek, 16k, T+)

Because Family is More than Just Blood (Sterek, 5K, G)

I mean, again, TECHNICALLY Actions Speak Louder Than Words also counts because I wrote it in 2019 and am just posting most of it in 2020... So... (Sterek, 384k, E)

We are going to assume all questions are answered with the inclusion of Actions.

Total Fics: I wrote 12 fics this year. Enough to be considered one a month, except definitely not one a month since Twilight took me two months and Actions took me a fucking ETERNITY, like, I think I started in July? Maybe August, but still, took me FOREVER!

Total Words: 877,632. Less than last year :( I broke a million words last year. Maybe I can break 2 Million in 2020! (LOL Yeah no...)

Ship/Character Breakdowns: LOL Sterek. That’s... that’s it...

Best/Worst Title: Best Title (IMO): What Fresh Twilight Bullshit is This? (Idk man, I laugh every time I think about it, so I like it) Runner up Best Title: It Was a Wednesday Worst Title: Up Down Lock Unlock. (I legit had no idea what to call that fic, so, you know |D)

Best/Worst First Line: Best First Line: From “Everyone Needs a Little Mischief in Their Life”

To be fair, he hadn’t exactly meant to throw him into a tree.

Worst First Line: From “Quack (Stiles Stop Calling It That)”

“Stiles.” A loud grunt escaped said individual at the harsh smack to his posterior. “Up. Get up.”

General Questions

Looking back, did you write more fics than you thought you would this year, less than you thought, or about what you predicted?

I feel like kind of less than I thought. I had plans for two others but then Actions took over and I know myself well enough to know if I didn’t finish it first, I never would. So I’m gonna take a short break to catch up on like, life >.> And then start back up again starting with a long overdue birthday present. Hopefully I can write more in 2020 \o/

What pairing/genre/fandom did you write that you would never have predicted last year?

HAHAHA Uh, I only wrote Sterek and I knew I would only write Sterek so I guess I knew all along? Man, I write too much Sterek...

What’s your favorite story this year? Not the most popular, but the one that makes you the happiest.

Probably It Was a Wednesday. I mean, it was super SAD, and I was AWFUL to poor Stiles, but idk, I don’t write Derek’s POV very much, and I kind of liked having Derek be the one to save someone else for once. And I liked that he was the only one who could truly understand what Stiles had gone through compared to everyone else. It was also nice being able to write a fic where it showcases the pack can’t survive without Stiles because once he disappeared, the pack fell apart, and my honest opinion is that that is 100% what would happen. Without Stiles, the pack can’t function and begins to fracture, so it was fun writing them coming back together around him when he returned.

Okay, NOW your most popular story.

From 2019, What Fresh Twilight Bullshit is This? To be fair, it’s like, 116k words longer than my next longest fic of 2019 so I feel like that’s an unfair comparison lol.

Story most underappreciated by the universe?

I say It Was a Wednesday -slams hands on desk- But I’m biased because it’s my fav from 2019 >.> But it’s number 5 kudos-wise for 2019! I think it’s the angst. The first four are all more fluffy (Except Twilight, but it has an equal amount of fluff and angst). I guess my real self is coming out. SURPRISE! I am an Angst Queen >.>

Story that could have been better?

Be Still My Heart (My Neighbour’s a Bitch and You’re Beating Too Loud). Honestly, not super happy with that fic, but I wrote it for personal reasons. To copy/paste so as not to repeat myself:

(As of October 2019) So basically, Stiles is currently me. I have had a neighbour complaining about me for literally 31 months (which, for people bad at math like me, is OVER two years) and they are literally ruining my life. I have massive anxiety every time I do anything, INCLUDING SLEEP, and I basically cannot live my life in any capacity. The building manager is really nice to me, but the property manager is pretty much useless and the complaints continue to come during times where I am literally passed out in bed. In light of that, I wrote this fic because by God, I needed some fucking happy in my life over a situation I have no control over. Is Derek in the wrong? I mean, yeah, I never say he's not. Did Stiles suffer? Of course he did. But you know what? He got a happy ending, because turns out his anxiety was due to a poor decision on Derek's part, and he felt terrible about it. I don't get a happy ending, I get constant anxiety and apologetic texts from the building manager because it's his job to tell me he knows I'm sleeping but lady is still complaining. So given I wrote this to make myself feel better, and I decided to share it with you, do me a favour and instead of making me feel worse by telling me how horrible I am and how shitty Derek is, just hit the red X in the corner instead and you can avoid having to look at this fic again. People write things for various reasons, it'd be real great if there was a bit more understanding and a bit less attacks in the world. You don't know why someone wrote something or what's going on with the person on the other end of the computer screen. So just click the X if you hated this fic and thought Derek was a dick to Stiles. I know he was, but Stiles at least gets to live his life anxiety-free because the building manager was in love with him. I get to go cry in the shower every night.

Sexiest story?

What Fresh Twilight Bullshit Is This? It’s the only one with smut, I’m pretty sure, so it’s really the only one that counts |D

Saddest story?

It Was a Wednesday, hands down. I was really mean to Stiles in it.

Most fun?

Oh man, uhhhh... Oh maaaaaaaaan.... I thought it would be between two of them, but it’s between FOUR... Business Skype, There’s No Escape For the Potato Man, Quack (Stiles Stop Calling It That) and SuperWing, Stucky and SlaDick, Oh My!

Hmmmmmmmmmm..... hmhmhmhmhmhmhm....

UGH! This is hard. Okay, I’ma go with Potato Man. I got the idea randomly and it was ridiculous but still fun, so I’m gonna stick to that. It was my first instinct, going with it.

Story with the single sweetest moment?

Actions Speak Louder Than Words, but I can’t quote the part because it hasn’t been posted yet |D

So runner up is It Was a Wednesday:

“Need is a very specific thing. Your dad needs you, because he doesn’t know how to function without you. He needs you to be there to watch what he eats, and he needs you to stay close to him so he knows he hasn’t lost everyone he cares about. He needs you like a dying man needs one more breath. He’s desperate for it.

“Scott needs you, too. He needs you to keep him out of trouble. He needs you to challenge him, to keep him in line, to keep the Pack together. He needs you to be the voice of reason, to make the plans, to know when to fight and when to turn tail and run. Scott needs you like an Alpha needs a second, because he doesn’t know how to do this without you. He doesn’t know how to exist without you in his orbit, because you’ve never not been in his orbit before.

“But me? I don’t need you. At all. Because I survived before you, and I survived after you. I can manage without you in my life, but the difference is I won’t. Because I want you. I want you to be in my life. I want you in my space, arguing with me, annoying me, being infuriatingly right all the time. I want you to be a part of my future, whether it’s as a coworker at the garage, as a Packmate to this broken Pack that I don’t even know can be salvaged, as a friend, as a brother, I don’t care. All I know is that want and need are two different things, and just because I don’t need you doesn’t mean I don’t want you.”

Hardest story to write?

Actions Speak Louder Than Words, hands down. I love dialogue. Like, loooooooooooove dialogue, which is why writing fics with tons of texting make me supremely happy. And I decided, hey, what if I wrote a fic where one of the two main characters is cursed and can’t speak? What if I did that? And then what if I made it ALMOST 400k? WHAT IF I VERY SMARTLY DID THAT LIKE A VERY SMART PERSON?

I’m lucky I’m still sane, tbh.

Easiest/most fun story to write?

Okay, Business Skype can go here then. Because it was definitely the easiest, and also really fun :)

Did any stories shift your perceptions of the characters?

I mean, kind of It Was a Wednesday, I guess. Like I said above, it made me think about how the pack can’t function without Stiles, personally. So I’d say probably that one for that reason.

Most overdue story?

Actions Speak Louder Than Words. That thing was an asshole to me :(

Did you take any writing risks this year? What did you learn from them? I don’t think so? Unless writing really excessively long fics this year counts? Because I did two of those... And clearly, I learned nothing from that suffering.

What are your fic writing goals for next year?

To not take five months to write one fic... That’d be good |D Kinda wanna do another challenge, but don’t know what. I’ll think on it. If anyone has any challenge ideas, let me know :)

#not tw #corancoranthemagicalman #Blood's yakkity yaks

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thewhizzyhead · 5 years

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SIX BROADCAST FOR THE PAST TWO WEEKS

Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening to all you ladies, gentlemen, and variations thereof. Welcome back to ACCESS (360) Three-SIX-ty, your access to real time SIX news. Due to unfortunate scheduling delays, this edition of ACCESS (360) Three-SIX-ty was delayed for nearly 2 weeks. To compensate for this delay, ACCESS (360) will be covering everything that has occurred within the past 16 days. On the other hand, I am pleased to announce that ACCESS (360) Three-SIX-ty will be a regular feature on this blog. Expect new editions every two weeks, every month, or whenever the SIX Fandom ultimately decides to go batshit crazy (scheduling may vary). AND NOW FOR THE HEADLINES: + FOR FIVE, FOUR, THREE, TWO, ONE MORE MINUTE- Former SIX: The Musical alternate and swing queen Grace Mouat bids the SIX West End company farewell as she took her final bow on the SIX stage last Sunday, August 18th. Ever since her first appearance as Katherine Howard, one of her first covers aside from Catherine of Aragon, in West End Live 2018, she has donned all SIX crowns throughout her entire run, starting with last year’s U.K tour which ended last December 30th in Glasgow, up to SIX’s current run at the Art’s Theatre which officially began this January, sharing the tracks with the then-new alternates and swings Vicki Manser and Courtney Stapleton. She had announced her decision to leave SIX months prior to her last scheduled show in order to star in &Juliet, a new British musical based on Shakespeare’s Romeo and Juliet that will premiere on the West End at Shaftesbury Theatre on November 2; aside from being part of the ensemble, she will also be covering the titular character Juliet as her first cover. Grace’s departure was made even the more heartbreaking with her last Megasix as all the cast members (sans Natalie May Paris, who was on vacation at the time being) including alternates Vicki Manser and Courtney Stapleton all went on the stage to express their love and support for the young star, sharing speeches and tear-filled hugs. The writers Toby Marlow and Lucy Moss, the SIX West End queens and the queendom alike all flooded social media with appreciation posts all dedicated to the Swing Queen Grace Mouat, who, as of August 30, has been nominated as Best Understudy for the West-End Wilma Awards along with Maiya Quansah Breed, who was been nominated as Rising Star. + ALTERNATES AND UNDERSTUDIES FILL THE SWINGO CARD - The Queendom is to expect new covers and takes on the 6 wives of Henry VIII as more and more alternates don the crowns. The first one to complete the SWING BINGO ever since Grace Mouat’s departure is Vicki Manser, who has finally portrayed her third covers within the last two weeks; she made her debut as Jane Seymour on August 18th’s matinee performance, and as Catherine of Aragon last 30th of August. Courtney Stapleton surprised everyone with an Anne Boleyn debut last August 24th for both the matinee and the evening performance. To add to that, she has recently announced on her Twitter and Instagram accounts that Coleyn will indeed make a return on the evening performances on the 5th and 12th of September, along with the long-awaited Courtney Howard debut next week, which is scheduled on the 8th and 12th of September. Shekinah McFarlane, SIX’s newest alternate, has made her Cleves debut last August 15th and her Aragon debut last August 24th alongside Courtney Boleyn. Collette Guitart, on the other hand, has made speedy progress on her Swingo Card as SIX’s understudy. In merely a month, she has already portrayed 4 of the 6 queens: she had her debut as a SIX understudy, playing Jane Seymour last July 30th,her Boleyn debut coming shortly thereafter, portrayed Aragon for the first time on August 15th alongside Shekinah McFarlane’s debut, and had her latest debut as Catherine Parr with her own costume last August 30th alongside Vicki Aragon. However, there have been no announced dates so far for the debuts of SIX’s new alternate trio: Hana Stewart, Cherelle Jay and Zara Macintosh. On the SIXcago side of the world, Nicole Kyoung Mi Lambert has recently made her debut as Anna of Cleves last Monday, August 26th. There has been no news of recent debuts for Mallory Maedke however, having only covered Boleyn and Seymour so far. + SIXCAGO’S ARAGON APOLOGIZES FOR LIKING AND FOLLOWING HOMOPHOBIC POSTS AND ACCOUNTS - Adrianna Hicks, who plays Catherine of Aragon in the SIX U.S Tour, has received a tremendous amount of backlash for liking homophobic posts made by many church organizations on Instagram. Fans have also noticed that her account follows the Instagram accounts of said organizations, such as Bethel Church and the Changed Movement, both of which advocate heavily on conversion therapy ideals and generally the idea that ‘homosexuality can be erased’. According to those who have messaged her on Instagram, she has responded with the exact same message to all accounts and has blocked some when asked further about this topic. Ever since then, she has made a post on Instagram apologizing for her actions, stating that she thought the posts were promoting love and acceptance for the LGBTQ+ community. She ends the post wishing that she’d be forgiven while she continues to learn and grow as an ally for the LGBTQ+ community. She no longer follows the accounts and has removed the likes on their posts. In other news, she briefly left the SIXcago tour productions to star in the Sacramento Music Circus production of “The Wiz” as Dorothy from August 6th-11th, with Nicole Kyoung Mi Lambert playing Catherine of Aragon in her stead. She returned to SIX shortly thereafter. + ROYAL FLASH MOB, ATTENDED BY THE QUEENS AND THE QUEENDOM - Thousands of SIX fans, young and old, flocked together on the 31st of August, excitedly awaiting for official start of the Royal Flash Mob at exactly midday in front of the Tower of London ticket offices, wherein the attendees will perform the choreography of “SIX”. In preparation, the plan for flash mob was announced beforehand on the 24th of August by the queens, along with a tutorial to the choreography of “SIX” featuring SIX’s choreographer Carrie-Anne Ingrouille and SIX alternate Vicki Manser. On the day of the event while everyone was eagerly waiting and singing along to “SIX”, the queens were being paraded on their mini carriages (sans Alexia Mcintosh; Shekinah McFarlane stood in for Cleves) on their way to the venue whilst Courtney Stapleton, Vicki Manser, Collette Guitart, and new alternate Zara Macintosh, who has yet to make her SIX debut, also arrived to the scene. The queens led the flash mob along with some other professional dancers to guide the attendees throughout the whole song. + NO MEGASIXES AT BOSTON THEATER - Complete and utter shock came to the SIXcago fans as the iconic filming of the megasix has been prohibited by the American Repertory Theater. The theater’s ushers had announced either before the show or before the megasix itself that no phones should be out and all photography and filming in the theater is not allowed. One line in particular during the megasix was changed to fit this: from “Get your phones out, you’re gonna wanna hear this!” to “Tag/Text your friends, they’re gonna wanna see this!”. According to the ushers, this was due to some copyright issues within the theater and the Ladies In Waiting’s band union. However, the copyright issue is said to be fixed within the next weeks, therefore the tradition of recording the megasixes will most probably return sooner in September. AND NOW FOR ACCESS (360) THREE-SIX-TY’S NEW AND EXCLUSIVE SECTION: (harmonizes) (gay rights) (gay rights) (gay rights) (GAY RIGHTS) GAY RIGHTS + POWER COUPLE COURTNEY STAPLETON AND ELOISE DAVIES CELEBRATE THEIR BIRTHDAYS - SIX alternate Courtney Stapleton and Eloise Davies, Grease: The Musical U.K Tour’s spend a lovely week together celebrating their birthdays. The queendom swooned over the couples’s overall sweetness as the two spoil each other with guitars and vinyls, with Eloise celebrating her birthday first last August 20th and Courtney celebrating her 26th exactly a week later on the August 27th. The birthday week culminated with a birthday sportsfest and picnic attended by family and friends, including SIX’s Maiya Quansah Breed. Understudy Collette Guitart has also celebrated her birthday recently, turning 22 on the 30th of August, being the youngest queen among the West End Cast. + SUNDAY FAVOURITE’S ROSTER OF GUEST STARS LIST PILES UP - More and more recognizable theatre stars announce their upcoming appearance on Aimie Atkinson’s show called “Sunday Favourites” scheduled on the 15th of September at The Other Palace. Earlier in July Aimie had announced that her girlfriend (and SIX’s Studio Cast’s Cleves) Genesis Lynea and friend John Deepmore will be joining her along with Gabriela Garcia and Sarah Naudi, both of which were in the 2016 U.K production of “In The Heights” with Aimie. SIX’s Studio Cast’s Renee Lambert and Christine Modestou, who have played Aragon and Boleyn respectively, are also to join the show. Sam Pauly, SIXCago’s first Katherine Howard, and Annabel Dicaprio, student run’s K Howard, will also be making guest appearances on the 15th. Jodie Steele is the latest West End actress to be announced as part of the Star Roster. Ticket’s for Atkinson’s show are still on sale on The Other Palace’s website for those interested in viewing the two-hour show. AND THAT’S ALL THE HEADLINES WE HAVE GATHERED FOR TODAY. KEEP YOUR EYES PEELED FOR MORE ISSUES AND BROADCASTS TO COME. ONCE AGAIN, THIS IS ACCESS (360) THREE-SIX-TY, YOUR ACCESS TO REAL TIME SIX NEWS. (credits to @qualquercoisa945, @insertmusicaltheatrepunhere and @aimielynea for helping me out with the info thanks mates!)

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thegreywitch-onyx · 5 years

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One Year Later

This post is pretty much just for me but I figured why not make it public in case anyone can gain anything from what is going on with me. It’s long and I’m not good at separating my thoughts into cohesive paragraphs so if you decide to read this hunk of word vomit... good luck.

It’s been almost exactly a year since I have posted on this blog, or done anything remotely related to my craft at that. A lot has happened; I’ve moved houses, I’ve cut toxic people from my life, I’ve gained new friends, I’ve reconnected with old friends, I’ve adopted two new amazing kittens, among a mass of other happenings that go on in a years time, not all good and not all bad. The one thing I haven’t done is my craft, to the point where I don’t know if I can even call any kind of craft “mine” anymore, how can it be mine if I have nothing to do with it? I don’t do spellwork, I don’t do ritual, I haven’t divined anything, hell I can’t even remember the last time I lit a damn candle nonetheless doing it with intention. This all came to a head with me recently and I realized that no matter how many good things I have in my life right now, the bad things are taking precedent and I’m not happy. I haven’t been happy in a long time, and that isn’t just because I’m not practicing my craft at all, it’s also because so many things that are out of my control are taking over my life. My fiance and I have been fighting constantly and having arguments that would make Ares pick a side and go to war, and I believe this is the source of my troubles. See, for me love and harmony in my relationships is very important to me. My fiance is my best friend, my partner in crime, my chosen family and my other half and lately we haven’t been on the same page. We have both been making decisions that are mentally and physically unhealthy for us individually, and as a unit. Without going into extreme personal detail he is currently staying with family for a little under a month and I am going to be by myself (with our animals of course) until that time is over. We currently live in central Florida. I type this post at 6:30 pm on Friday, August 30th 2019. In two days what is predicted to be a severe hurricane (category 4 already and has plenty of time to grow) by the name of Dorian is projected to hit Florida right on the central east coast so I’m going to be in the absolute thick of it. My fiance and I will be riding this storm out separately, through no choice of my own I assure you of that. I was raised in Florida and have always loved the weather here, I adore hurricane season and as terrible as it sounds I always ache for a storm to hit and knock the power out for a few days. I know storms in the past have caused great destruction but who are we to build such easily destructible buildings in such an environment and expect them to last forever at the mercy of mother nature? Anyways, I’m familiar with this experience, I’ve done it many times... though never alone. And I mean totally alone other than my animals, my close family is all too far for me to reach and I honestly wouldn’t want to burden any of my friends with bringing two dogs and two cats as well as myself into their homes to ride it out with them for whoever knows how long the fallout from it will last. All in all what I’m trying to say is I’m fucking terrified. I took a moment to think to myself and calm myself and figure out where to go from here and the first thought that popped into my mind was “pull a card” I was taken aback, I haven’t had that thought in so long. Before I abandoned my craft I was learning the tarot, slowly but surely, a card a day, a day at a time using the Rider Waite deck and the Rider Waite guide to help me learn to interpret what the cards were saying to me. So I grabbed my deck, shuffled, split, spread and pulled one card with no specific question in mind but rather a request for guidance through this coming storm that is hurricane Dorian, my engagement, my life. I pulled the ace of swords as shown above and I included as well a picture of the page from the guide that goes into detail about it’s meaning and symbolism and how it pertains to different aspects of life. I was blown away by what I drew, instantly before I even needed to grab the book I noticed that the hand holding the sword is emerging from a dark cloud which to me symbolizes the hurricane, the fact that its an ace affirms that yes, you will go through this alone but the hand is holding the sword triumphant. The suite of swords is symbolic of the element air, thought, intellect, the mind. It’s almost as if I’m being told that once I get over this fear in my head of being alone, not just in this moment or for this storm but in life in general, and face what is coming, I will be able to think clearly and take proper action to come out on top. The part that really got me though is the “six drops of gold” it states in the guide that this is in reference to the major arcana card “VI-The Lovers: the story of Paradise lost and Paradise regained”. That’s all I needed there I suppose, we have no intention of separating it’s just hard to get through a spot like the one we are in and this message reassures me that we will get there together and even if we don’t it will be paradise either way for it will be for the best. It feels so anticlimactic to try to explain with words on a screen what I felt when I was reviewing this card and how everything it said to me made perfect sense, and I could feel that this was the message I was not just needing to hear but absolutely meant to hear. I feel more lighthearted and easy minded now knowing that no matter what happens I have the opportunity to come out above it, and whether it be in paradise regained or solo and holding my own sword it will be my own. The book says for the card of the day reading: “Rise up, stand up straight, and benefit from a new clarity!” and I do feel more clear. This is what I miss about my practice, my craft, my spirituality... feeling like absolute shit about something and taking the time to pull a card and assess it, or light a candle and gaze into the flame, or draw a bath and let the water envelop me and coming away from these small things feeling refreshed and reassured that I can make myself happy through the simplest things. On top of all of this I just realized while typing this that today is a New Moon... what a day... what a better time to cast away the things that don’t serve me and open the door to people and mindsets that do. Anyway if anyone actually read this... welp, there’s a few minutes you’ll never get back lol.

#onyxthegrey

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soulfulauror · 6 years

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Tina’s story in CoG and the apparent police brutality taking place in the wizarding world. It’s been a while but this is a topic I’ve been thinking about for a while now. The idea that Tina is in Paris against orders when she fought so hard to return her to her job was something that left me well... bitter. It was the one thing she had for herself, a statement that Katherine furthered in this round of press so to simply, well, go MIA in it did not fit Tina. It undermined her whole story in FBAWTFT. Yesterday I watched the movie again and my thoughts remained on this topic the whole way through: Puzzling through Tina’s story. Along the way I started paying attention to the references of the current climate of Aurors in Europe (and worldwide). Which in two words was simply: Not Good.

Now before we continue I’d like to note that I am currently in the process of moving so both the Archive of Magic and my copy of the Screenplay is currently packed up. Because of this I cannot directly reference either and am going from memory. Certain details I’ll be pulling from my previous posts here on this blog (the rough timeline of the movie and the information about Tina’s tracking of Credence). As always I will try to go by fact only, but without the screenplay I can’t give you exact wording.

I’m not really sure what to label this as, but I’m going to put it as a headcanon.

PLEASE NOTE BELOW WILL BE COG SPOILERS. DO NOT READ FURTHER IF THAT BOTHERS YOU.

Let’s start with the elephant in the room first that I think lends to Tina’s straying away from her job: The current climate of Aurors around the world. It’s not just Newt who thinks that the Aurors are being hypocrites and acting against their duty. Dumbledore speaks of it, Grindelwald speaks of it, and the public as a whole seem to be well aware of the behavior of the Aurors. Dumbledore specifically states to Travers that his, “method of suppression and aggression were leading Grindelwald’s followers to his arms”. Travers specifically tells the Aurors to arrest everyone on sight at the rally whereas Theseus, when leading, tells them not to do anything because it’s not illegal to hear Grindelwald speak. This ends in a man using a killing curse on a woman unflinchingly.

We go now to Newt who aggressively tells Theseus earlier that he would not act in a way where, “the ends justifies the means”. Theseus does not deny this is, in fact, the way the Auror department is working. The Wizarding World has always been a slightly darker place-- remember, America’s ideas of dealing with serious infraction was the Death Chamber and Azkaban is used for evading travel bans-- it’s quite clear that in the era the idea of having total control is important to this world. Grindelwald does not lie to his followers-- He tells them what they want to hear. What he tells them regarding the Aurors killing their followers isn’t untrue and is in fact shown to us on screen.

Newt calls them “careerist hypocrites” who “kill everything they don’t understand” which if we read into the current climate tells us even further. Yes, he’s absolutely discussing creatures to an extent but he even pointedly tells Tina that every other Auror wants to kill Credence but her-- Which means he’s aware of the situation (and has to be) and knows that the Aurors will stop at nothing in order to do so. So despite the fact they say they speak for justice and do the right thing, they’ll stop at nothing to achieve this idea of peace.

Specifically, they’re using force to stop people going to Grindelwald. Despite the fact that it’s not illegal to listen to Grindelwald, Travers wants to arrest all. They use killing curses in close quarters at hexes sent to them. This is classic police brutality lending its way to allowing a revolutionary to come to the forefront, which is exactly what Grindelwald manages at the end of this film. It’s what he wanted-- To show that they were the ones “peaceful” while Aurors used killing curses. All done in front of dozens upon dozens of Purebloods who already think themselves some level of royalty.

We know from the Archive of Magic that Aurors were deployed Europewide in early August. We also know this wasn’t just merely British wizards, but apparently American ones too.. Although I don’t think Tina was there on duty (a fact I’ll get into here in a bit), it does seem France has a record of every international Auror working the cases. These Aurors would have been a result of multiple things: searching for Credence, looking for Grindelwald, and wrangling up followers who were being rowdy. We know from newspaper headlines that most of the news was revolving around Grindelwald and his followers during this time.

Now where does this leave Tina?

Thanks to the Archive of Magic, we know that she was searching for Credence’s real parents since before the first movie started (Nov. 30th to be exact). We know from a letter with Newt that she never stopped thinking about Credence, but oddly doesn’t tell Newt that Credence is alive (or at least Newt is really good at faking that he doesn’t know). We do know that she knew in late December that Credence escaped New York on a cargo train to the circus. What we don’t know is when she got that particular information, but I’d imagine it was a few months later.

David Yates states that Tina was not in New York at the end of the last movie during the bakery scene. He’s very mysterious about it saying she’s on a top secret mission. Queenie went to see Jacob only after Tina was out of town, as Yates said once more which leaves a few more complicated questions regarding Tina specifically: Was she looking for Credence in March? Likely, yes. When did she see Newt’s article in the tabloid? (This was released in late Feb early March) How/When did she start dating Achilles Tulliver?

Obviously, the last few questions are merely for piecing togetheLetr certain elements of her story. Because unfortunately, CoG for Tina is less about her finding Credence and more about her playing a love subplot for Newt. So figuring out these things in regards to her timeline, given how minimal it is, becomes important since if she knew in March than she... Stopped speaking to Newt for roughly half a year despite “thinking of each other every day for a year”.

Let’s start with the important bit: Credence. So we do know that the Purebloods are looking for a lost Lestrange. We know that the Ministries of Europe and America are looking for Credence. One, because he’s an Obscurial. Two, he’s a pawn Grindelwald wanted. Their search only furthers after Grindelwald escapes.

So if Tina was not in America as of March 1927 I am under the belief that she was one of the first Aurors sent out to look for Credence-- Perhaps even the first. Out of all of them she’d have the closest connection to Credence. Picquery would have understood that out of her current Aurors Tina would have had the best bet in finding the boy. So when Tina was reappointed-- this was officially put in the papers in Jan-- I do believe her assignment was look for Credence and it eventually sent her overseas.

I do not think she necessarily had the information that Credence was in Paris proper in March. Here’s the reason: She knows that he had some connection with the circus. So if she did it shouldn’t have taken her six months to find him in Paris with that direct information. My belief is she got that information later which makes her storyline even odder. Because then-- where was she? In limbo, I suppose. Maybe she was actually sent to help wrangle in some of Grindelwald’s followers in Europe which would establish a few more things:

Tina doesn’t recognize who Theseus is when Newt changes into him. If she’d seen the tabloid then she would have known who that was. So most likely, Queenie told her about it in a letter since we know that they were released in late Feb through March and Tina was definitely out of NY in March. Which would explain why she took (multiple) tabloids at face value if her sister told her that it was in the news-- Tina has no reason to not believe Queenie, she wouldn’t think she’d intentionally hurt her that way.

Which also on the way means that wherever Tina was she wasn’t working alone at the time, but is in fact working in some kind of team. Since she’s close enough to another Auror at the time to apparently go on dates. Though we’re not given exactly what happens and it could even be Queenie exaggerating again-- Tina having to work closely with him, stopping for dinner with him, etc. We don’t know if this is a legitimate “dating” or not simply because apparently Tina’s not even near Queenie when she does. For the benefit of the doubt we’ll say she went on a few dates with him and it likely didn’t go further--

Largely because if we do this in a very rough timeline: Queenie writes Tina in March about Newt. Queenie likely tells her about Jacob in another letter. Tina in a returning letter probably begins arguing with her and talks about Achilles. Queenie stills stays with Jacob. Eventually ends in not talking. So with the space between them: An ocean. With the method of communication: Owls. I’d say roughly the sisters corresponded for two-two and a half months and Tina stops talking to Newt in April. This would also match up with Newt’s book launching in March and his failure to get to America hurting Tina more. So if this is the case Tina and Queenie likely stop talking just around Grindelwald’s failed extraction from MACUSA in late May. As I’ve mentioned before the movie (apparently, regardless of student presence) takes place in late August canonically.

Which means that Europe would be under high alert very, very quickly in June. And we’re told in mid-August that it’s officially hit headlines that they’ve been put out Europe wide. A fact that likely happened a little earlier but the Prophet didn’t get news of until a little later. So everything they were looking for before would have been doubled down on and the rumors about Credence would have started in... about mid-June. Enough so that all of the Purebloods are talking about it, Tina knows of it, and it comes into Ministry hands. The Ministry does not have an official idea of where Credence is even in August, which is why they want Newt to look for him. It’s Dumbledore, Grindelwald, Tina, and Yusuf that seem to have exact laction.

Let me state that the timeline for this movie absolutely makes no sense and trying to put Tina’s search for Credence into it makes even less sense. Because we do know she knows exactly where he is and is trying to reach out to him at the start of the movie but she’s also specifically trying to find out information on who he is to dispute this pureblood theory and/or allow him to live, which is why she lets Yusuf capture her and whatever else.

Now the problem here comes in the fact: Is she acting under orders being in Paris or no?

Everything points to no. Yes, Tina is probably supposed to be on a force looking for Credence specifically. So in one sense she is coloring within the lines but apparently she is not on record for being in Paris. We could argue that Queenie didn’t say her full name, “Porpentina Goldstein” (which Tina does in fact use for records and work related stuff-- friends and family are who call her Tina). But what I get that we’re supposed to take from that scene is Tina is not officially in Paris. Which, yes, she could be acting under cover but that goes against what she’s doing--

Tina is an Auror looking for Credence to help him not to kill him. Which is the exact opposite of what every other Auror and ministry official is out to do. Officially, she is looking for Credence. But if she put down on paperwork she was in Paris then she’d have to answer questions and they’d probably call in other people and-- more specifically-- they’d expect results. And as we know Tina’s result would not have been what they wanted.

In a sense Tina is an Auror gone rogue-- not exactly unfamiliar for her character either. She’s acting just within the constraints of her boundaries while finding information to save Credence rather than kill. She hopes to obtain that before the Ministries find him or Grindelwald. So she’s not entirely abandoning her position overseas but she’s still jeopardizing her job should the Ministries find out she was in Paris without permission and had crucial information on where Credence was. Tina is a woman who is borderline reckless but has a desire to protect and-- She’s well aware of the Ministry’s stances and behaviors on things and is purposefully acting against them because she does not agree.

#headcanon ✘ an uncomplicated act of kindness

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nettheworldonfire · 4 years

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Less Than.

It’s been awhile. Let’s catch you up to speed.

June 13th I had a CT scan that showed NO progression, and POSSIBLY necrosis on some of the tumors on my liver. (Necrosis = death, so yay!) Dr. Rose said that was as good as we could have hoped for and thought we should move forward with possible embolization through Penn since they seem to be the experts in NETs. He wasn’t sure if the clinical trial of chemo/bland embolization was running currently due to Covid, so he said I should reach out. I scheduled the consultation appointments, which were originally not until August, but got bumped to July 22nd.

My in-home phlebotomist was a no-call, no-show on the 30th, so I called my office and found out there was a mix up, and they were scheduled to come the same day as my injection, so I had to go to Labcorp in person. I was pretty anxious about that since we aren’t do to much real-worlding these days, and they may or may not be doing Covid testing there, but I mustered the courage, and went. There was only one person in the waiting room and only two employees, one of which dealt with me from beginning to end exclusively. Everyone was masked up; it was smooth and painless. (Shout out: I ALWAYS have a good experience at the Labcorp on Easton Road in Abington, near the hospital. They are rockstars!) Those results came back looking a-okay.

I had my 5th Lanreotide injection on July 2nd and met with a very stressed Dr. Rose who still may or may not be retiring, due to some major changes with the hospital. He said labs and scans were good, and to keep him posted about my appointments with the folks at Penn. Overall, I felt fine after the injection. My GI issues are still relatively prevalent after the Whipple, so I never know if what I am dealing with is “normal” or an issue. And right now, with you know, the world crumbling, it could just be stress.

So fast forward to the 21st, the day before my appointments, and I get a call that Penn doesn’t have the scan images or pathology report and that maybe we should reschedule my appointments (you know, the ones I’ve been waiting a month for). They said the problem with this was that the doctors like to look at them in advance. Although, a point I brought up to the nurse, I don’t see how much advance looking was going to be done after 6 pm the night before. So we rescheduled my 10:30 a.m. call with Dr. Soulen to 6 p.m. so there was time to review, in the hopes that SOMEHOW I could get both reports and images to their office between the call and the appointments. Without any other options, my gracious husband made the one hour drive, and carted them into Penn at 7 am on the 22nd. (Only to spend 20 minutes there looking for the building, since I was never told any information as to where the doctor was located with my appointment being through telehealth, and like a dummy, didn’t ask.) Images delivered, and I get a call at 9:45 ish saying Dr. Soulen is still calling me at 10:30 again (and now my mother, the child pacifier, won’t be here in time, since I told her to come later when the appointments were rescheduled).

My first call was with Dr. Michael Soulen in interventional radiology. I introduced him to the two-legged noise makers who would provide a classic toddler soundtrack, and he seemed pleasantly on board with the situation.

My mom did show up during the call just as things got hairy (Charlie had all the cushions off of the couch and my cat litter barricade was no longer stopping Olive from making a bee-line for the steps). Gram to the rescue, as per usual.

Dr. Soulen liked my June scan. He said it was great because that meant we didn’t HAVE to embolize (despite him mentioning several times how seeing a liver like mine makes him drool because of how much he enjoys embolizing livers). Dr. Soulen said that the treatment plan should be “to ride the horse until it gets tired” because we only have so many horses. Therefore, we stay on the Lanreotide until it stops doing what it is supposed to before trying something new, as the treatment options are limited and there isn’t data on whether or not they can be repeated multiple times successfully. Especially with someone who has a history of a second cancer (Hodgkins) and chemotherapy. He also clarified some things about the embolizations. He said that a bland embolization and chemoembolization both cut off the blood flow to the liver, something we cannot do, because during my Whipple they removed a duct that helps my pancreas get rid of bile and bugs, which now filter into my liver. Normally, this isn’t a major issue, but when you embolize a liver like this, it will cause a liver abscess in 20% of patients, landing them in the hospital for a while (because a serious infection like this requires IV antibiotics) and obviously with two little ones and Covid, that’s not something I’d like to risk right now. There is a third type of embolization - radioembolization - that instead of cutting off the blood flow, shoots in little radioactive beads that are attracted to the tumors and give a very direct dose of radiation to them. This makes patients a bit more fatigued, but only has a 5-7% rate of abscess or infection, which is better, of course. That being said, none of this is the plan for now, and may not be for several years, as long as the Lanreotide keeps doing its job (he estimates 3-5 years at best).

With all of that information and hearing that the Lanreotide is not expected to work forever, I really wanted a more accurate prognosis, although nothing is certain in the world of cancer. He said that he has some patients who do these drugs and trials and make it into the double decades - but those are usually the grade 1 tumor patients (I am a grade 2, grade 3 being worse). So, he said a single decade is more in tune with what patients in my situation should expect - but that 5, 10, 15 years is possible. While I WANTED to hear some real talk, and I didn’t expect to hear that everything is good, that was still a little jarring. At 37, and with a 1 and 3 year old, 15 years might not even get me to high school graduation, and that’s the high end. Thinking about leaving my family in the next 5-10 years is beyond terrifying. He said that my liver right now is functioning as it should. It’s “more cheese than holes.” I should be glad for that. I am.

Here you can see my two scans. Left is June, right is February. This may not be the perfect shot (I was trying to take a screenshot while we were talking), but you can kind of see some of the white spots (cancer) with some blackness (necrosis), so, that’s cool.

The second call was with Dr. Ursina Teitelbaum, the oncologist who specializes in neuroendocrine cancer. She was awesome to chat with, as always, and agreed to take over my care - something I needed to ask because Dr. Rose is ready to pass me along like the worst re-gifted patient ever. I also asked her some morbid questions and was particularly surprised to hear her response, too. She said had my June scan indicated progression in any way, it would have likely meant a 1-2 year prognosis. I am a little annoyed and confused as to why no one said anything like this to us in previous visits. I mean, you’d think someone with toddlers deserves to know that they may only have 12 months to live, especially when they are currently spending their time in quarantine and not doing any of the things that mean the most to them. She agreed with Dr. Soulen, we should hold off on the embolization for now, and wanted to see me again (virtually) in September. She also said she would get another scan scheduled for me for before that appointment and that we could plan for someone to come to my home to do the Lanreotide injections, rather than have to get into Penn each month for that when I am trying to work and parent this fall.

One thing that she said that stuck with me, was that she believes this pandemic is going to get a lot worse this fall, and that regardless of what happens, we should be careful, but not limit visits with loved ones. We need our family and friends around us for support. We need that connection. While maybe her message was to “live like you are dying” because I am, in a way, dying, I think she is living this way too. I think she believes that the damage that months and maybe years of this will do to our psyches may be greater than the risk of getting Covid (not worse than actually getting it, but again, being “safe” and careful, in masks, etc.) Just something to think about, especially for my family.

In other news, my anxiety has been through the roof (not surprisingly so - I did get diagnosed with cancer exactly a month before we got hit with a global pandemic, ya know). After a talk with my primary, we upped my Lexapro dosage from 5 mg to 10 mg last week. According to my OBGYN, that’s still a very low dosage (they said they prescribe 20 mg to woman for PMS sometimes, so there’s that), so we will see. I really think I need something for panic attacks, other than a 32 ounce frozen margarita from Mad Mex. They get costly. My primary has given me a couple Ativan doses to hold me over as the new dosage of Lexapro kicks in and wants me to follow up in three weeks. Til then, expect more of a “hot mess” than you’ve seen before. Please note, hot does NOT indicate I look good right now, and “seen” is perhaps the wrong word, too, since, I barely SEE anyone. Just forgive me, I’m losing it.

* Dark side: Change in plans: Cancer probably WILL kill me, afterall.

* Bright side: Being chronically ill may help to keep me working from home this fall, instead of returning to the cesspool known as high school. Maybe.

* Next steps:

7/27/20 between 8:30-10:00 a.m. - home visit from phlebotomist

7/30/20 at 9:30 a.m. - Lanreotide injection #6 and appointment with Dr. Rose

9/20 - Next CT scan in Valley Forge (instead of my super close Willow Grove location), date TBD

9/22/20 at 9 a.m. - Telehealth appointment with Dr. Teitelbaum

Morbidly accurate GIF:

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yridenergyridenergy · 7 years

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History of Dir en grey’s tours

The title may sound presumptuous as this post is nowhere near complete, however I just studied Dir en grey’s whole timeline section and made some interesting discoveries. Some of them might already be common knowledge, especially among Japanese fans, but I doubt the full scale of the connections between older tours and the recent Tour 2016-2017 FROM DEPRESSION TO ___ [mode of X] shows has ever been highlighted.

My curiosity was piqued when the host of the guesthouse I stayed at in Kouchi this summer mentioned that he had remembered that the local newspaper had covered Dir en grey’s concert many, many years ago and that that was why the name rang a bell. I had found Kouchi to be quite a weird place for Dir en grey to tour, not to mention that the tour started there of all places. And then, that MC Die did at the last show in Iga apparently, a place that was very isolated, it seemed; the weird seated venues Dir en grey was playing at in the [mode of MACABRE] tour; those perfect 8月3日木曜日 and 8月5日土曜日 shows; the random locations Dir en grey would visit besides the regular cities; etc. It seemed like too many coincidences.

It turns out that someone among Dir en grey’s team might be doing their best to drop easter eggs from the past within these tribute tours, because:

[mode of MACABRE]

August 26th 1999 - Kouchi Caravan Sarai → July 15th 2017 - Kouchi Prefectural Hall, Orange Hall

Not the perfect example, but Kouchi was first visited around GAUZE - MACABRE, and Dir en grey missed the opportunity to go there again during Tour 2014 PSYCHONNECT -mode of GAUZE?-. The island of Shikoku in general was visited a few times back then, but more rarely in the recent years, if my memory serves right.

January 14th 2001 - Ueno Municipal Hall → August 5th 2017 - Iga City Cultural Center

Thanks to Die for that precision that they came 16 years ago to Iga (and kyotakumrau for reporting his words), otherwise somehow I had not found this hah. The one time Dir en grey went that far, in that remote location, was in 2001 for the tour 00>>01　MACABRE　brain gain(er) brain drain(er). Again, too weird a location to end a tour, if there are so few people who travel there that the train only has two wagons. This show was affected by a transfer, in the past.

August 17th 2001 - Grand Cube Osaka → July 17th 2017 - Grand Cube Osaka

August 18th 2001 - Grand Cube Osaka → July 18th 2017 - Grand Cube Osaka

Immediately following the release of 改-KAI-, which contains remixes of MACABRE songs, Dir en grey played twice literally at Grand Cube Osaka. Sixteen years later, they play twice at that venue too, and on the same days one month earlier. Osaka is a very common Dir en grey stop, so I was not expecting to find such a glaring evidence of the connections here. Wow. This was one of the venues I found weird for Dir en grey to be playing at.

[mode of 鬼葬]

Chinese tour 2002 → October 28th 2016 - KITEC Rotunda Hall 3

From what I recall, Hong Kong fans remembered in 2016 that Dir en grey had visited them for 鬼葬 too. On top of that, it was literally in the same venue: Kowloonbay International Exhibition Trading Center. They went out of their way to emulate the 列島激震行脚 2002　-亜細亜- (Archipelago Fierce Episode Gang 2002 - Asia-) The Japanese Fxxker Family tour in at least one venue.

March 6th 2002 - Club Citta Kawasaki -a knot only- →

March 7th 2002 - Club Citta Kawasaki → November 7th 2016 - CLUB CITTA’ [MALE LIMITED] -｢a knot｣ & ONLINE only-

October 29th 2002 - Club Citta Kawasaki -a knot only- → November 8th 2016 - CLUB CITTA’ [FEMALE LIMITED] -｢a knot｣ & ONLINE only-

October 30th 2002 - Club Citta Kawasaki -a knot only- →

The abundance of CLUB CITTA shows following the release of the 鬼葬 album (for tours 列島激震行脚 2002 The Japanese Fxxker Family and 列島激震行脚 2002 5 UGLY KINGDOM) has translated into at least two concerts at that venue again for the [mode of 鬼葬] tour, following the tradition of having them be a knot only for the most and going one step further by dividing fans into male and female groups. It was not the first time Dir e grey did this, back in 2002, but they missed the opportunity to replicate that during Tour 2014 PSYCHONNECT -mode of GAUZE?-.

[mode of VULGAR]

October 21st 2003 - Kurashiki City Art Tribe Museum → June 19th 2016 - Kurashiki City Art Tribe Museum

Dir en grey staff is good at publishing banal messages like: “It’s been x years since we played in this venue, wow! Hope to see you all rock out with us again!”, but they do not make you realise exactly when and for what occasion Dir en grey played there. In this case, this is no coincidence: if I remember correctly, this was the only time they went there at all, and it was the first time they had gone to Okayama at all, back in Tour03 OVER THE VULGAR SHUDDER. So, you connect the dots and it makes so much sense that they would return to that location exactly during the tribute tour to the same album.

[mode of THE MARROW OF A BONE]

September 18th 2008 - Miyazaki WEATHERKING → April 29th 2017 - Okinawa Music Town Sound Market

Not that Dir en grey had never before traveled that down south in Japan, but during the tour THE ROSE TRIMS AGAIN in 2008, Dir en grey visited Miyazaki for the first time. As if wanting to push even farther, they went further south in 2017 and played in Okinawa for the first time.

Overall, it really looks like they realised that they missed some occasions during Tour2014 PSYCHONNECT -mode of GAUZE?- and that they tried their best to catch up on that in the tours for albums released close to GAUZE anyway. It makes you wonder if they had planned for the tribute tours back then or if they thought the GAUZE tribute tour would be all and quickly done with.

I know that some of those things are a stretch sometimes, but you do have to take into consideration that booking venues is not easy, and this could be why some regions were ignored or they had to improvise and go with the closest alternative, like in that Miyazaki - Okinawa case. People definitely sat down at a table and agreed to do their best to revisit areas they had ignored for many years, and to reproduce what had been iconic about some of the old tours.

Hopefully not too much of what I mentioned is already written and announced in the Dir en grey fan club magazines, which I have not had the opportunity to translate for myself yet...

Key points for Dir en grey’s tour history globally:

We are so lucky that Kyo has stopped having medical issues. Years 1997 to 2004 or so are punctuated by frequent tonsillitis, hearing loss and other similar illnesses, and Dir en grey had to postpone so many concerts back then. Kyo’s surgery also dates back to so many years, wow.

It was in 2007 that Dir en grey started playing a lot less across Japan. Before that year, the majority of their tours had easily double the number of shows as their current tours do. In 2007, it was due to committing to play across the world, in Europe and in North America, but I do not know what is stopping them from playing in all of Tokyo’s surrounding regions again like in the old days... Hopefully not age hah.

What a journey.

Let me know if you find other parallels!

#Dir en grey #fromdepressionto #tour #history #analysis #Kyo #京 #mode of MACABRE

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alexsmitposts · 5 years

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Media Spin Makes David Gareja Monastery a “Flashpoint for False Flag” Both history and borders are not constant. They are often in flux, especially if conflicts can serve some not so hidden agendas. On 30th July, the self-described “independent” outlet OC media, which also happens to be funded by the Open Society Foundation, released an article stating that only Moscow benefits from rising Tbilisi-Baku tensions, referring to the recent flare up in David Gareja between Azerbaijan and Georgia. The article begins with an alarmist tone, claiming that there is hateful rhetoric on both sides, and that only the Russian government can benefit from this. But first some background is required on the current disputed area around a 6th Century Monastery, which is on the border between the two countries and is known as the David Gareja Monastery in Georgia and Keşiş Dağ (Priest Mountain) or Keşikçidağ Dağ (Guardian Mountain) in Azerbaijan. The rightful ownership of this monastery was rarely discussed either during or after the Soviet Union. Not until recently did it become a heated issue, taken advantage of by all sides. Even now it is only fringe nationalist groups and people looking to score political points who are discussing it, but the OC media article makes clear that this will not continue to be the case – foreign contenders have also entered the ring, with far more sinister proposals. But what do these contenders have which will prove their unsubstantiated claims? No historic reference is given to the root of the problem, which lies in the former USSR , when this disputed territory was split between the Georgian and Azerbaijani SSRs, then ceded to Azerbaijan by Sergo Orjonikidze, who was later killed in Stalin’s purges, as a way of laying ticking time bombs. Both Georgia and Azerbaijan have things to gain from this dispute. When the article states that ONLY Russia can benefit from it, this gives the impression that this article is shifting blame to another side to hide its own agenda. But it won’t remain hidden fort long, based on what we know. Now is the future The only thing the authors can cite in support of their rabid claims of rising tensions in the area is a mere two articles on the above-mentioned OC media site. They also find a way to mention Putin and his supposed benefit from the incident, as if he himself is Russia,, and this in itself raises flags. The whole aim of the article and mentioning Russia becomes much clearer towards the end, when the EU and U.S are urged to support Georgia and Azerbaijan in resolving the conflict and curbing Russian influence in the region. Having spoken with several citizens of Azerbaijan and Georgia, I can confidently state that the issue in the David Gareja complex is one between Azerbaijan and Georgia only, and both are sovereign and independent nations with relatively good relations, capable of negotiating the demarcation of the border, as is planned to take place in August. But OC media has made my job easier by demonstrating the motives of the two authors. David J.Kramer is a former Assistant Secretary at the Bureau State for Democracy, Human Rights and Labor, known for influencing countries under the guise of protecting human rights. He has also written a book about containing Putin’s “regime”, a topic he seems to care deeply about, judging by the article. Kramer is a war hawk with a great appetite. He favours keeping sanctions on Russia and meeting any challenge to US dominance with swift action. Richard Kauzlarich, the second author, is a former Ambassador to Azerbaijan and head of the National Intelligence Office for Europe – a man who has spent years influencing Caucasus politics both from the inside and outside. Both these men have experience of working for the US government, and its intelligence agencies specifically, so they know exactly what their employer’s goals are; pushing US interests in the Caucasus, under the guise of stopping Putin and protecting human rights. Their articles are stated to be opinion pieces, to give them an excuse for being so brazen with their propaganda efforts. They usually write for smaller, local new sites, to make it seem as if they have a special connection to the reader, rather than being yet more foreign analysts talking down to them about their own countries’ problems. Bit of History The David Gareja Monastery Complex is located about 60-70 km southeast of Georgia’s capital Tbilisi. Georgian official information describes it as a Georgian religious and cultural monument. It consists of a number of churches, and has historical significance for Georgians as the foundation of one of the most important Georgian saints and the site of the martyrdom of the last remaining monks in Georgia during the period of Muslim occupation. David Gareja has been included on the UNESCO World Heritage tentative list. The site is characterized by a unique combination of historic architecture and important bio-geographical features. There are dozens of cave monasteries, decorated with unique frescoes, considered excellent examples of the harmonious interaction of manmade structures with a dramatic landscape. They were created on traditional principles of sustainable living and are considered masterpieces of Georgian Medieval art. The former Soviet government designated the complex part of Azerbaijan. However, upon the collapse Soviet Union the final delimitation of borders was never fully completed. The alleged facts are: “The delimitation process between Georgia and Azerbaijan on the state border is still ongoing. Commissions of delimitation between the states have agreed on 66 percent of the border, but two percent of the David Gareja monastery complex territory is included in an area whose delimitation has not been agreed, including the cells of the Udabno Monastery and the paths leading to it, for the very simple reason that the above mentioned percentage of the monastery complex’s territory came under the control of Azerbaijan during the period of the Soviet Union. Accordingly, the rest of the David Gareja Monastery complex is claimed to be situated on Georgian territory.” Azerbaijan didn’t restrict free movement on this territory for many years. However, things have changed in recent months, as Azerbaijan border guards have told Georgia that they will only let clerics and border guards into the Udabno Monastery. It appears that the Government of Georgia raised the monastery issue after information was reported about Georgian citizens and tourists not being allowed onto the part of the monastery complex now occupied by Azerbaijan. I researched this topic back in 2012, when researching information shared by Georgian priests. Since May 6 of that year Azeri guards have been posted on the part of the monastery complex their country controls, specifically the Udabno Monastery. They have not allowed some Georgians to enter various sections of the monastery complex, and visitors are told that the Udabno Monastery is part of an Albanian cultural monument, a contentious claim in the eyes of most Georgians. Naturally this issue must be resolved based on the two countries’ traditional good-neighbourly and friendly spirits. However, The former Saakashvili government and its supporters are keen to use media sites as pots to stir in order to further divide an already divided country. The dispute had almost entirely died down in Azerbaijan, but an opposition politician made a video a few weeks ago. General Elçin Quliyev maintained in this that in light of Georgian violations of the border and acts of violence towards border guards, which include grabbing their weapons, more punitive actions should be taken. Ali Alıyev, one leader of the Citizens and Progress Party, said in a recent interview with Hamam Times, that a source who claims to have worked in the border patrol for over a year and a half had strict orders to warn off those approaching anywhere within 50 metres of the border, first verbally, and then by firing warning shots into the air, and then finally shoot the intruders if they took no notice and violated the border. Ali Aliyev is not related to the first family, and Aliyev is the second most popular name in Azerbaijan. The party he represents is a minor opposition party, demonstrating that the border question is being used by political parties on both sides for sordid purposes, which is scary in itself. The purpose of this dispute, and who lies behind it, are clear – to provide an opportunity for friends of the US to capitalise on the possibility, however slight, that this cherished historic site will be forever lost to future generations of Georgians thanks to their allegedly “pro-Russian” government. Having failed in Tbilisi with efforts at destabilization, they are now trying to foment an upheaval in the border regions, amongst people more than happy to resolve this issue amongst themselves, without outside interference.

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glitteryyouthstudentworld · 5 years

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Although I share the many negative aspects of my life, I merely do so in order to share the journey. There is no point in campaigning for reform through sharing my own experiences with only half the story. For me though, it is the positive aspects which not only mean more but are more important. Many lessons can be learnt from positivism just as they can from a negative experience. To blow one’s own trumpet, without coming across as egotistical or even sycophantic, isn’t an easy balance, however, I am extremely proud of what I managed to achieve during my time as a serving prisoner, why shouldn’t I be? I believe it shows that even in an environment lacking in hope but full of despair that there can be a positive end result (eventually), especially when people believe in you and support you, an experience I’m still finding just as humbling.

Another important aspect in my life, and an importance not lost on me, is education. In this instance, I, of course, am referring to education within secure environments, although not always in relation to academia, however, I believe it will also highlight the overall importance in the subject of education (excuse the pun). Do I personally wish I was able to gain my education in the conventional way? No! Not really. A reason perhaps for my featured image?

Little did I know, as an innocent eight-year-old, I would be embarking on a journey of education, along with a training programme unlike any other that would see the barometer ‘set fair’ for my current status.

My secure environment education began ironically – and coincidentally not long after being kicked out the education system as a 14-year-old – within a secure unit. Ironically, coincidentally? You choose, but I spent my 16th and 18th birthdays in a secure environment setting. My 21st, although spent in freedom, is still one I wish to forget due to my mum passing away two weeks later and two days before her 60th. My mum and dad due to celebrate their ruby wedding anniversary Boxing Day later that year. I’ve never really liked Christmas, or birthdays come to that, since.

My education of empathy began a lot later on in my life. It was in 2005, whilst at HMP Blundeston, where I found the wonders attached to mentoring. My first role was with Shannon Trust, as a what was known then, Toe-by-Toe mentor, this would quickly be followed by becoming a listener trained by the Samaritans. Both roles remain as important to me as they did 14 years ago, and I am pleased to be able to continue to support both these incredible charities now and in the future.

My education of secure environment education, although a few dabbles in between, started in earnest at HMP Wayland in 2009. It actually started through no choice of my own. This was due to an unproven case of suspicion which led to SIR’s, a ghosting and a security file. Education the only option available to me. A position, considering my actual guilt at the time, extremely acceptable to me, and one I used to my own advantage. Cass Evans is the lady I acknowledge as to who unlocked the initial quest for knowledge and citizenship. The bug became like an addiction; however, this addiction was far healthier and far, far less expensive than the illegal drugs and alcohol I used to be best friends with.

It all started with a City & Guilds level 2 in ‘Assisted Learning Support’. The classroom I was assisting in at the time was English for Speakers of Other Languages (ESOL). I’ll probably be shot by the PC brigade but the only way I can describe that classroom is to compare it to the late 70’s, early 80’s British sitcom ‘Mind Your Language’, but our classroom was full of mutual respect. If only some of our multi-cultural communities experienced that room, it was a joy to be a part of it.

I was asked by Cass to enrol in a new class she would be tutoring herself, and so a few weeks later I started my next City & Guilds course. A level 3 one this time in: Preparing to Teach in the Lifelong Learning Sector (PTLLS). PTLLS did absolutely nothing for me following my eventual release in August 2010 (I entered the system May 08). However, what it did enable me to do, was to fulfil my unplanned plan I knew nothing about. Almost bang on with the systems predictions, within 12 months (have to keep to the reoffending schedule that was expected of us), almost to the day, in August 2011 I started a new, smaller sentence, this time 18 months. Aside from a 2-week, necessary break, I completed the whole of the 18 months in prison. This was due to the strict licence conditions placed on me that I didn’t agree with or wish to accept, along with a residential condition of an AP (not my first, nor ever successful). The nature of the hostel (and not mine) placing even more, in my opinion, restrictions of movement and, therefore, extra pressure to conform. Not the best mix. So, after being released on the 29th February 2012 I was recalled back to prison where I was free once again. Being institutionalised has that effect. Education, empathy and a whole load of citizenship are what I take from prison. Lock-down, inclement weather and the occasional disagreement contained within the unwritten instruction manual, not only that I had other things, more important things, like change and reform to worry about rather than worry about the things I couldn’t control. But I did take pleasure in closing my own door before last orders, it can be difficult to get to be alone in prison sometimes. Then again, with education in my life, along with its many characters and personalities more numerous than my own, I wasn’t ever alone, even when at my loneliest. That for me is education in a nutshell, it just keeps on giving, and freely.

I was released from this term on the last day of November in 2012. My liberty this time lasting until the following July, when attempting to run away from myself to the beautiful, picturesque area of the Brecon Beacons in the Rhondda Valleys of Tylorstown, South Wales, I found myself, on remand, in Knox Road again. This time, however, HMP Cardiff and not HMP Norwich, trust me, the irony wasn’t lost in the reception of Cardiff. I was successful with a judge in chambers bail application and at the end of November, part of my conditions was to stay with family in Kent. A call from my brief, the second week of December informing me the case had been thrown out by the crown court, meant at least Christmas that year was an enjoyable one. But the following summer would see me hit with new bail conditions as I was facing a lump for a serious assault. Fortunately, this too was eventually thrown out due to the credibility of the victim/witness and his propensity for story telling through a police statement. The pressure consciously not felt, as I was a long way into my smorgasbord of drugs and alcohol once again by this stage to not worry. Not exactly father of the year material, more loyalty shown to a piece of foil and a pipe than to my children and grandchild. A few more bad choices would see me arrive at my inevitable rock bottom, fortunately, it wasn’t to be a one-way ticket. I was at the beginning of the end of my training, although education never stops. As student or teacher.

My final sentence was where my whole life finally made sense. I still had one lesson to learn in prison, you can’t run with the hares and the hounds. My character understood and controlled, my personalities placated and no more need for medication. Dedication would be my new medication. No more manufactured legal/illegal poison for me. I replaced the poison with an elixir of knowledge and understanding of the self. Have you ever tried to complete a jigsaw without looking at the picture?

As I mentioned my education of education within a secure environment started at HMP Wayland with the Curriculum Manager, Cass Evans, coincidentally it was taken over by the Curriculum manager at HMP Norwich, Deborah Stewart. I not only became Deborah’s mentor in the ICT class which she tutored, I also mentored courses I had completed myself.

Radio production, Health & Safety, presentation skills, creative writing with Jacob Huntley, a lecturer in English Literature at University of East Anglia and when on the curriculum, a self-awareness course.

As well as completing a City & Guilds level 3 in Advice and Guidance through St. Giles Trust for whom I would become a peer adviser.

I know that sounds a lot but bear in mind that there were 11 education sessions during the working 5-day week. Plenty of classes, limited mentors however, B cat locals struggle to hold on to those they need sometimes. Early mornings, night-time bang up, Friday afternoons and most of the weekend was for me and my own studies. I was, and am, studying for a BSc (hons) degree in criminology and psychological studies through, in their 50th year, The Open University, funded by a student loan from Student Finance England. Although in the build up to my degree I studied for an access module with The Open University this time funded by, in this, their 30th year, the wonderful Prisoners’ Education Trust.

A collective responsibility, like nothing else before, behind me. I took the decision to change but I owe my appreciation to those that enabled it, including the uniformed men and women of our landings. An appreciation and gratitude that I fully intend in rewarding with my success.

Education makes the impossible, possible.

The number 42! "but I owe my appreciation to those that enabled it, including the uniformed men and women of our landings." Although I share the many negative aspects of my life, I merely do so in order to share the journey.

#Crime #Education #Justice Reform #Mental Health #Positive #Prison #Prison reform #Success

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iannoyinglysweetstudent-blog · 6 years

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I will be driving for a year this august and i'm currently paying 105 a month for my current insurance. All the quotes im receiving at the moment are alot higher then i'm already paying but i'm sure it will go down once i've been driving exactly 1 year. Will i get a 1 year No claims discount automatically on the date i finish my current insurer? then just set my new insurance to start the day after?

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I'm 19 and just passed got my driving license. I live in Yorkshire (I think that me living in Yorkshire reduces the cost of insurance a bit). How much would annual insurance cost for something like a Mazda Rx-8 (2000-2006). Also if possible how much would it cost for a Volkswagen Golf GTi or a BMW E series. I know I havent given much information about which cars but let's just say a car priced between 2000-4000. Also if I do the Pass Plus course how much would that reduce it by? I just need an estimate by the way to get an idea of the prices. By the way I am a first time drive and male. Thankyou

2 door sports car insurance costs?

I've been seriously looking into purchasing a 06 Hyundai Tiburon or an 04 Nissan 350z. I'm 18, and everytime I mention it to my parents, they ALWAYS bring up the fact that we ...show more""

Car Insurance?

Last year I paid my car insurance in one hit, online. This year, renewal price was higher because I got 50 cash back last year. I saved 120 by searching around and went ahead with the new deal. Unbeknown to me the first company renewed my insurance without my knowledge because they had my credit card details from the year before. I ended up being insured with 2 companies for 3 days and I went 109 over my limit on my credit card. Not only is it illegal to be insured by 2 companies at the same time, they did it without my knowledge! Are they allowed to do this? I have, I hope, resolved it but if any charges are incurred either for cancelling my previous insurance or going over my credit limit are these retrievable?""

""Does your auto insurance rate when you turn 18 years old, any cheaper?""

Hey everybody, I'll be turning 18 in a couple of months. I live in Georgia, and drive a 2002 Lexus RX 300, which is a mid-size SUV. I am not looking for a specific quote. I got my license late because I had to do drivers ed, and other reasons(non legal)...well the thing is, I have only had my license for a few months and haven't bought insurance. I don't know if I should wait until I am 18 to buy it. Is insurance a lot cheaper once your 18 as opposed to 17 or so? Please only answer if you know what your talking about. THANKS a lot for the help.. Sincerely, Zain Dhanani""

Homeowners insurance?

Last night while at my girls house I slipped in mossy stairs and broke my ankle. I need surgery now. I was wondering is her landlord responsible for this? I don't have health insurance and I need my **** paid for. I don't want to sue i just want his insurance to cover me.. do they cover stuff like this and how does this thing work

Car Insurance for a friend?

I have a friend (single mom of 2) and she needs to get cheap car insurance on her ford explore. She let it lapse for 6 months and now her loan company wants to repo her car, even though she has made every car payment. (she leases her car)...(kinda like rent to own) She got a quote from my agent, but it was going to be way too much for her. I am guessing since she still owes on the car she has to have full coverage. And can only afford less than $100.00 a month on it. She is a renter, she is going to school, and has bad credit. Are there any companies out there that she can get a good deal or at least get coverage for 6 months and re-apply with a better company?? The only one I have found out there was the general.com. And they seem to be ok...but I don't know what other options she has. Thanks for reading this!! 10 points to the best answer!!""

What happens to money invested in whole life insurance if I live to 105?

I am 60 and bought a whole life policy about a year ago but what if I live to 105? Is there insurance available after age100?

How much is car insurance per year for a oldish mini?

I'm 18 in June and I would really love a mini say 2005 or something like that. How much roughly would insurance be per year for one of them. Thanks guys :)

Need help with my car insurance?

How much will my car insurance probably be?

I'm 17 and one speeding ticket that resulted in four points on my record. I drive a white 545i bmw 2005, I rlly need to know bc I mite need to sale my car. Thanks""

What is the cheapest insurance for a teen?

what insurance company will be more affordable for a teen

New driver looking for cheap insurance?

Car insurance question ?

My son's girlfriend signed her car over to my husband to get chraper imsurance for the two of them on his policy. I dont think this is a good idea, what could happen to us if they get in a major accident?""

Life insurance for the elderly 83 years old?

life insurance for woman. i dont want quotes

""I hit someon because of rain related skid, no one got ticket. Can I claim from their insurance my car damage?""

We pay insurance to cover us in accidents and my friends are telling me that it is my fault because I hit from behind. I say that it was out of my control and the skid just happenned becaus eof the weather. Can I be able to claim from other person Insurance company. I only had liability and it wasn't my insurance as I was driving someone else's car. Cn someone with their experience guide me, what will be the best way to take car eof it. the other car did not have any damage but my car has about $900 damage. If I take it to a reputable car place it might go upto $1500. Thanks in advance""

Need help with auto insurance!!!?

Hello everyone. I'm from Sacramento/Elk Grove, California. I'm currently insured with Bristol West Auto Insurance for the past 3 years. I'm planning to switch auto insurance because it's really really hard to get a hold of customer service. And when you do, (after 1 hour of holding) they'll put you on hold some more, or even tell you they'll call you back. Which they never will. My point is BW customer service is very very crappy. I need help choosing an auto insurance company that's reputable but yet affordable. Considering the fact that I have an SR22 on file, low rates is my main focus. The lower, the better. I'm planning to insure 4 vehicles (1 is temporary until car get smogged) and 3 drivers. We all have good driving record, inspite of my dropped DUI case. Three of the cars are years '91 and under. Mines is a '98. If anyone have any information (site/link/etc.) or knows any good auto insurance company, please do let me know. Thanks in advance and any input in greatly appreciated.""

Can I be added to a auto insurance policy?

Im shopping around for a car and insurance policy. The car would be brand new with only me as the owner. Because I have never had insurance under my name and am under 25, it is very expensive. I'd like to know if my dad, who has multiple vehicles, would be able to add me to his policy for my car that is not under his name. I'm not sure if that makes sense. Basically, I'd like to get his discount by having his name and mine on the insurance policy, although the car title is only in my name. Thanks for any help! (1 month I pay is the same as a 6 month payment for him. Lot of money)""

EX(executive) class model car insurance?

Is it true EX class model car have higher insurance rate? I want to buy an honda accord 2000 EX.

How much life insurance is enough?

We are looking to get life insurance for my husband and myself. Permanent over term. Im a stay at home mom of 3 kids and we are planning to have another baby. We are currently living in Europe because my husbands job is here. We are renting but want to buy a home. We plan to move back to the US at some point, when my husband can find a secure job there and when we can save the money to be secure in an unstable economy. Basically, if my husband dies (God forbid!!) the children and I would move back to the US and need to buy a house, vehicle and either ship our belongings from Europe or furnish a new house. Plus, I havent worked in about 5 years since I have been raising my babies and I dont have a college education. I do plan to send all the kids to a public university when that day comes. I am capable of working but dont know what kind of paying job I could get with only a hs education. So how much do you think my husbands policy should be? And for myself? Whats the average cost monthly for a married couple having permanent life insurance?""

Insurance for a Range Rover Sport?

I'm turning 16 in about two years, and i was thinking about getting a 2010-2012 RR Sport Supercharged. I was wondering how much it would cost for me to get insured. Do you have a range of what it would be around? My parents are already letting me practice driving and stuff. The car would be around $30,000-$45,000. My family is in the upper-middle class. So we're not all that rich. I will be working by that time and paying the car off.""

Auto Insurance?

When a child is taking Driver's Ed ...and you are giving him extra practice time while you are in the car. Do you need to add him to your insurance?

Insuring a teen driver?

I was wondering if I have to insure my teen driver. He's just turning 16 and I don't want my insurance rate to sky rocket. Why do I have to insure him, (if I have to.) Isn't him not being on the policy the same as someone borrowing my car?""

How much is car insurance?

I'm 17 years old male and i have a 2001 ford mustang in great shape I live in Nashua Nh. and I just got my liscence. can anyone tell me how much my insurance would probley be?

Car insurance with teenagers.?

My mom and I have been checking around for cars to buy because I have a scholarship and one college class right now, and I need the transportation so that I can go to study sessions for the college class, and to the meetings for my scholarship. We really don't have a lot of money. I work but only on Saturday because of school. My mom has Progressive right now and she checked how much it would be to have me and a new car on the insurance and it is a whopping $500 a month (her, her truck, me, and my car included).. We need an insurance company that isn't going to cost us a 1/4 of our income. At first we were looking at older cars under $2500. Then my mom was thinking it would be better to get me a new car with good gas mileage so she wouldn't have to worry about me being safe and not breaking down on the side of the road... But we can afford a new car, not with our down payment. The monthly payments are too high. So now we are going back to the older cars, and if we have a fully paid for vehicle, I am sure the insurance won't be as high. But here it, I am 16 years old, took driver's ed and have an insurance waiver that is supposed to bring the insurance down 10%. I also have good grades, a scholarship, a job, etc.. These things should look good to the insurance and bring the cost down.. I am safe driver as well.. Not driving far daily at all. Basically back and forth from school and to those meetings and study sessions every now and then. Any suggestions as to what car to look for and what insurace company we should go with? Thanks, in advance.""

How do I get car insurance if my car was stolen?

I wrecked my car recently & was given a ticket for no insurance. My car was stolen shortly after & now I'm not sure what I'm supposed to do about the ticket or getting insurance. The court date is approaching very quickly! HELP PLEASE!

I have title to my exes car and pay their insurance. How do I get out of it?

Me and my girl broke up a year and a half ago. She's a real piece of work. We lived together for 3 years and had everything is each others names. Utility bills, cell phone bills etc. She never paid any of her bills on time and it destroyed her credit. I signed for a car for her because she's had multiple DUI's and didn't have the credit to get her own. She made the payments on it and I never put any money down. The car title is in my name and she has paid it off. She can't get insurance because of the DUI's. I just want to be done with it so I don't have to deal with her anymore but she wants me to hold off until she finished her DUI classes to get a reasonable rate on insurance. She's been telling me the same thing for a year plus. I'm not even sure if she's taken or taking these classes yet or not. I asked her about it the other day and she never responded to me. I had left her a voicemail and she never called me back. This really pisses me off. So my question is if I sign the title and make her sign it as well do I have any more resposibility with the automobile? I just want to drop her from my insurance and give her the title. Is she wrecks or, god forbid, kills someone while driving am I liable for anything?""

Cheap Motorbike Insurance for Young Rider? (PLEASE)?

Hi All... Thanks In Advance for any suggestions! Ive been riding my beloved VFR400 NC30 for 2 Years now (Which is now for sale), its finally time to get a bigger bike! Im wondering if anyone has any suggestions for the cheapest bike insurer for my age... I am 20 Years old (21 in May) and im looking to get insurance on a 2005 honda cbr600rr, I have been riding for 2 years with 2 years no claims, I own a car and have been driving for 3+ years with 2 years no claims. I did have a perfectly clean licence until last week when I picked up 3 points for Driving over the speed limit in scotland, Which I actually did carelessly not on purpose, so that will obv bump up the price a bit! I have tried some of the usuals likes Bennett's, elephant etc just wondering if there is anyone who knows ones that may work out cheaper than the 600 pound that i have been quoted! Once again many Thanks""

How is affordable calculated in obama care?

How is affordable calculated in Obama care? I have tried to find the criteria of what is considered affordable in Obama Care but haven't found it. How is it calculated? Who determines what is affordable? I think $1/ month is affordable. I'm sure the government and the health insurance company's say it's more.

Lamborghini insurance price?

What would the insurance price be on a 100K 2005 lambo for a 20 year old with a clean driving record, im not looking for an exact answer, this is just a question me and a friend were wondering about""

About how much per month would insurance for a sub shop/pizza place cost an owner?

Doing research in attempt to know how much it will take to get a small sub shop off the ground. A big question is insurance. In this day in age, I would hate to be sued by someone who slips outside and falls. I will be renting the property from a local land owner. The building is 1,000 square feet, small joint. What is a general range of which I might in liability insurance for my business? Located in ohio small town.""

Will my car insurance go up?

I pulled out in front of someone and they rear ended me and im at fault..and iam 17 years old so will my insurance go up, and if so how much? i have state farm""

How much should i be paying for car insurance in the state of ohio?

I am 17 years old im a male i drive a 2000 chevrolet blazer i have no accidents no tickets and i get decent grades

1st Car insurance way too high?

the insurance on my dads name with my provisional license is way too high nobody would pay 2300 pounds, iv put all the correct details in and put on as many drivers that put down price and every other possible way to reduce price but thats the cheapest on confused.com this means i need to sell my car that i have had for 1 and a half years that iv been working on for me turning 17 and driving it, im too depressed now and i badly dont want to sell it has anyone got any solutions or recommendations anything?""

""Help! If my car insurance deductible is $750 and repairs cost $489, How much will the insurance company pay?""

My car was vandalized. The adjuster sent me an estimate for $489. This is lower than my deductible. Does this mean that the insurance company does not have to pay anything? If so, i'm going to find some better insurance.""

Need help with my car insurance?

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-much-would-full-cover-insurance-cost-2010-ford-mustang-sharpe"

0 notes

silviajburke · 7 years

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Three Lessons from Hurricane Harvey

This post Three Lessons from Hurricane Harvey appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

The shocking images and stories from Hurricane Harvey continue to pour in…

This weekend, I saw a picture of an assisted living home where residents were up to their waists in flood water.

I also heard about three different prisons that had to be evacuated. I can’t imagine the logistical nightmare of arranging transportation for these individuals ahead of the storm.

And then there was the Sheriff’s deputy who was stuck in her home, with flood waters rising, and a three-month old baby sitting in a car seat on the kitchen counter. That family had to be rescued by neighbor’s giant tractor combine!

As our nation sits riveted to the massive storm Mother Nature has served up, I’m reminded of the danger of an economic storm on the horizon.

Today, I want to share three key takeaways from Hurricane Harvey… takeaways that could go a long way towards protecting your wealth from a stock market hurricane…

Takeaway #1: Research & Understand the Risks

The National Weather Service, along with relief organizations like The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) have built extensive databases that help to predict the severity of specific storms and the aftermath that could occur.

By understanding the risks, who could be affected, and where the worst flooding will occur, these agencies can give residents an accurate picture of the dangers they face.

By a similar token, we can look at data on financial markets and understand more about the risks investors face.

For example, today’s market features some significant risks that are easy to see if you know where to look.

Traditional investors are infatuated with stocks like the FANG group (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google), and they’re also willing to put massive amounts of capital into index funds — regardless of the price. This leaves many popular stocks over-priced and vulnerable to a sharp decline.

If you understand these risks, you’re much more likely to have a plan to avoid losing money when the next economic storm hits. Which brings us to our second takeaway…

Takeaway #2: Have a Plan, and EXECUTE that Plan

This weekend, we heard horror stories of people who didn’t have a plan and wound up trapped by Hurricane Harvey.

But what we’re not hearing about is the hundreds of thousands of stories of residents who got out of harm’s way and are now sitting in a dry place waiting out the storm. These are the people we want to emulate during the next economic hurricane.

Experienced investors — the ones who have survived previous market storms — will tell you that it’s extremely important to have a plan for what to do when the market trades lower.

And just as important, is the ability to execute that plan.

It takes a lot of discipline to sell overpriced stocks even when they continue to move higher… or to buy precious metals and other “safe” investments even when they are out of favor. But that’s exactly what smart investors are doing right now to protect themselves against the coming storm.

Over the past few months, we’ve been talking a lot about avoiding inflated stocks, and investing in resources like gold and silver. Hopefully you’ve already taken action. If so, you’re already benefiting from the recent breakout in gold.

Other resources like uranium, lithium, oil and natural gas will also be key areas to invest in, protecting your wealth from a decline in the dollar and from an overall market pullback…

Takeaway #3: Selling Insurance is Most Profitable AFTER a Storm

You’ve heard that it’s important to buy insurance well before a big storm is bearing down.

But did you know about the other side of that coin?

After a storm has hit, people are more likely to recognize the need for insurance, and make the decision to buy protection. All of this demand for insurance can naturally drive the price of policies higher. And insurance companies can make wider profit margins.

Using that same concept for markets, we should realize that there is a time to sell our insurance positions for top dollar as well.

Assuming you’re buying insurance positions like gold and silver today, you should eventually find yourself in a great position to sell precious metal investments at top dollar when the storm is at its worst.

Now timing can be a bit tricky here, but if you buy gold and silver today, I would encourage you to split these investments into two categories. One for long-term investments, and one for short-term trading opportunities.

This way, if gold prices spike sharply higher, you can sell some of your gold to lock in an excellent profit. This is similar to insurance companies selling policies at top dollar after a storm has done its damage.

Another great strategy for selling insurance is to sell put contracts on quality stocks that have pulled back. This market strategy gives you instant income up-front, and also gives you an opportunity to buy stocks you want to own at a discount.

This strategy is the basis of our Income on Demand service that helps you generate instant income from the market on a weekly basis. It’s my favorite income strategy that I use in my own accounts, and you can find out all about how this strategy works here. It’s so easy, even a 10-year-old can do it!

Here’s to growing and protecting your wealth!

Zach Scheidt Editor, The Daily Edge [email protected] Twitter: @ZachScheidt Facebook: @TheDailyEdgeUSA

5 Must Knows For Monday Aug. 28

The Hype Was Real– Hurricane Harvey battered the Texas coast over the weekend. The category 4 storm caused massive flooding and damage at an estimated cost of $5-10 billion. From an investment standpoint, oil refineries in the Houston area will be out of commission for the short-term, which caused gas futures to spike on this news.

Gold– The price of gold is still hovering around the critical $1,300 level. Not quite the breakout we expected, but the situation is still bullish — maybe even more so than before. The dollar index is currently sitting at its lowest level since 2015. And on the horizon is the U.S. debt ceiling debate, which is sure to be volatile. Stick with gold.

Happy Jobs Week– On Friday, September 1st, the U.S. Labor Department will release the August employment report. Economists expect to see an increase in 175,000 jobs added and for the unemployment rate to remain at an already low 4.3%.

Consumer Reports On Deck– This is scheduled to be a busy week for the Commerce Department. On Wednesday, August 30th, they will release their second estimate on 2nd quarter GDP — a 2.9% uptick is expected. And then on Thursday, August 31, the Commerce Department will release its July personal-income report, which will show insights into consumer spending and inflation — reports Yellen and the Fed will be watching closely…

Retail Earnings– Although the bulk of earnings were reported earlier in the month, there are still a few stragglers who report late. And this week, two retailers who are largely seen as “Amazon-proof” are set to report. I’m referring to Best Buy (NYSE:BBY) and Dollar General (NYSE:DG). Let’s see if they really are “Amazon-proof.”

The post Three Lessons from Hurricane Harvey appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

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writingsubmissions · 7 years

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UFC Fight Night 111 Preview

WHAT'S HAPPENING: *Well, on paper, UFC's offering from Auckland looked like a bunch of nothing prelims giving way to a fun main card, and it followed that blueprint more than anyone really could've expected, as the prelims were absolutely nothing, but the main card did, in fact, offer up a stupid amount of violence. And that included the main event - while it didn't give us a particularly brutal knockout or anything, it was nineteen minutes of big, dumb fun heavyweight action, with Mark Hunt and Derrick Lewis exchanging massive blows. UFC probably figured this would be a chance for Lewis to get a big win and officially become a contender, while possibly marking the end of perennial contender Hunt, who's currently suing the company, but instead it wound up being pretty much exactly the opposite. Lewis has always been a flawed fighter - his cardio wears out quickly, and his fight IQ can sometimes go completely downhill, but as he's risen up the ladder, none of that has really mattered; yes, Lewis will look horrible for the balance of the fight, but he's such a massive, powerful athlete that as long as he's able to hit a big knockout blow, he's going to win the fight. And in this case, that finishing shot just never came - Hunt fought a smart fight and just let Lewis wear down and get tired, and eventually Lewis tired so much that Hunt was able to go in and get the stoppage without much trouble, landing a few punches before the referee stopped it more due to exhaustion than anything else. But the big surprise came after, when Lewis announced that, at least as of now, this was his last fight, which was in a way, both extremely surprising and not at all. Years back, when Lewis was first starting in UFC, he talked about pretty much quitting fighting as soon as he got enough money to pay off his house, but that talk quieted as Lewis reeled off his big winning streak and got what was apparently a decent-sized contract. Reading between the lines, it seems like Lewis was basically willing to continue as long as he kept charging towards the championship, but with that out of the picture for now, and Lewis getting married soon, that's apparently that. Lewis did leave the door just open enough that I'm not taking him off the roster just yet - and if he did indeed sign a fairly big-money deal, I assume he'll be back - but for the time being, heavyweight is down one of its few youngish, interesting fighters. *That main event came after a run of four finishes, three of which were absolutely brutal. Dan Kelly's miracle winning streak at middleweight came to a brutal end, as Derek Brunson absolutely annihilated him on the first real exchange of the fight, knocking him out in just 76 seconds. It's hard to even say that Brunson returned to his more aggressive form here, as the two guys just sort of felt each other out for a minute, and Brunson then finished the fight before he even really got the chance to get any sort of gameplan going. Local Auckland boy Dan Hooker absolutely annihilated Ross Pearson with a brutal standing knee right up the middle for a second-round knockout, proving that his lanky frame still an advantage, even as he moves up from featherweight to lightweight. This was looking well on its way to being a typical Pearson fight that goes to a close decision, but then Hooker uncorked that knee, and that was that. Pearson's been a reliable hand as an action fighter for years now, so it'll be interesting to see if UFC keeps him on despite four straight losses. Ion Cutelaba did not mess around in a light heavyweight tilt against Henrique da Silva, marching forward to stare da Silva down during fighter introductions, then charging forward and just obliterating the Brazilian in just 22 seconds with some brutal ground-and-pound. Even though he's just 23, Cutelaba hasn't shown much to suggest he'll ever be more than a fun, straight-ahead brawler, but when the Moldovan gets going like he did here, he's absolutely terrifying. And the fourth finish was definitely the biggest upset of the night, as Ben Nguyen was able to tap out Tim Elliott in just 49 seconds. Elliott started to initiate a grapple, but Nguyen just hopped on his back, and that was suddenly that - Nguyen continuing to exceed expectations has been a fun story, and I did like his post-fight interview where, when prompted to call out a next opponent, Nguyen threw some shade UFC's way about their talk of closing the flyweight division. Ben Nguyen is awesome, y'all. *As for the rest of the card, even the lone decision on the main card was an impressive performance, as Alexander Volkanovski affirmed himself as the best of the Australian prospects. I've generally been down on Volkanovski compared to the consensus, but he looked excellent here against a tough opponent in Mizuto Hirota, showcasing his powerful wrestling and some thudding power that would've knocked out anyone less tough than the Japanese vet. I tend to write off most Australian prospects as potential action fighters and not much else, but Volkanovski's the rare exception that looks like he could become an actual contender. The lone finish on the prelims saw Vinc Pichel return from a three-year layoff to knock out Damien Brown, in a nice moment for Pichel. Though, honestly, I was actually a bit more impressed by Brown - he's seemingly too old and late in his career to turn into a contender or anything, but as someone I had written off as a regional vet who wouldn't have much UFC success, he's supplemented his grappling with some nice striking and was hitting a groove here...until he ran right into a flattening uppercut from Pichel. Debuting New Zealander Luke Jumeau looked good in his UFC debut, as he proved to have enough power and athleticism to counter the rugged wrestling game of Dominique Steele. Australian newcomer Ashkan Mokhtarian looked awful, though, as John Moraga snapped a three-fight losing streak by absolutely dominating Mokhtarian. Mokhtarian's a powerful, if not particularly good, grappler, so maybe there's a lower-tier flyweight or two that Mokhtarian can overpower, but hoo boy was this a bad UFC debut. Zak Ottow defeated Kiichi Kunimoto by split decision in a fight that, as expected, saw nothing interesting happen. And the show kicked off with J.J. Aldrich getting a decision win over Korean newcomer Chan Mi Jeon. The fight didn't really do much to change my opinion of either woman - you can see Jeon's potential, but she's still so young and raw she doesn't really know what she's doing, although she did at least pace herself and fight a smarter fight here. Meanwhile, this really didn't do much to address my concerns of Aldrich being able to handle athletic wrestlers, and Jeon was so inexperienced that Aldrich was just able to pick her apart and keep her at bay. *So, holy crap! The Conor McGregor/Floyd Mayweather fight is...actually happening? August 26th is the date, and while there have been conflicting reports about which venue in Vegas is hosting the fight, it'll likely be the T-Mobile Arena. So, this is fairly nuts. It always made sense from the perspectives of both fighters, and Showtime as well, since Floyd figures to pick up an easy win, but I'm a bit surprised UFC went along with it, though I guess this speaks to how desperate new ownership is to pay off their debt. Although splits haven't been announced, UFC figures to make a ton of money of this fight - pretty much everyone involved is going to get around $100 million if you assume normal-ish splits, but they may really wind up hurting themselves in the long-term, since they may spell the end of McGregor. I doubt he'll be hurt by the loss, as expectations should be so low that he really has more to gain if he has any moments of success than lose with a loss, even if it winds up being one-sided, but it's becoming harder and harder to see McGregor fighting again for the UFC, even though the promotion is apparently hopeful to have him on UFC 220 on December 30th. But either one of two things is going to happen - either McGregor is just going to make so much bank he's not going to bother fighting again, or if he does want to fight, he'll probably ask for so much money that, frankly, it may not be profitable for UFC to even have him fight. And given that UFC's biggest business has been built on the backs of McGregor and Ronda Rousey, WME-IMG may be in a ton of trouble once this fight is done. And god help us all if he wins. And as far as details, this will apparently be an all-boxing undercard, and the bout is taking place at 154 pounds, which is a surprising win for the McGregor camp, since one figured that Mayweather would make the Irishman cut as much weight as possible. *Only a few other things in terms of news and notes. Sean Grande is out as Bellator's lead play-by-play announcer, and the promotion announced they've signed both Mike Goldberg and Mauro Ranallo to take over the announcing duties. Both men will debut on the upcoming show from Madison Square Garden, I assume in a three-man booth with Jimmy Smith, which will be...weird. It's all very unclear how this is going to work, but I'm assuming Goldberg and Smith will be the team for a lot of shows, since Ranallo seemingly splits his time between every fight promotion out there. The MMA Journalists' Association has launched - it's much needed, and hopefully lasts longer than recent attempts to unionize fighters have gone. Sage Northcutt has joined Team Alpha Male, apparently, which, frankly, is as good a choice as any - Alpha Male gets a lot of flack for not being the best when it comes to high-level gameplanning, but if Northcutt's just looking to learn a lot of stuff really quickly, there are worse places to go. And top British featherweight prospect Arnold Allen has found himself in hot water, getting a suspended five-month prison sentence for his involvement in a brawl around Christmas. Long story shirt, apparently Allen's girlfriend got into a fight at a Christmas party, and things escalated rather rapidly, with a drunk Allen basically trying to protect his girlfriend by punching everything that moved, including a few women. Apparently, his lawyer argued that Allen doesn't handle his alcohol well because he abstains from it during his fight camps. This did not work. Anyway, it's unclear what the fallout of all this is - Allen might face some restrictions when it comes to travelling outside Europe, and nothing's been said about the status of his UFC contract. The cynic in me says Allen probably won't garner enough headlines for UFC to bother reacting to this, but by the same token, as talented of a prospect as he is, he's probably expendable enough that UFC could cut him, like they did Michael Graves (who had an outright domestic violence arrest), without much of a fuss. ------ BOOKINGS: *Not a ton announced in UFC proper over the last week, outside of a ton of fights for that Tuesday night Dana White's Contender Series show starting up in July (which is apparently actually a completely separate promotion, so I won't be covering those here). In fact, there's only one fully new fight, and it doesn't even technically have an event yet - after teasing a fight with Al Iaquinta, Mike Perry is instead facing Thiago Alves in a bit of a weird prospect-versus-veteran fight, and it's set for August 19th, at...somewhere. It's fully expected this will be UFC 215 in Seattle, but the intention seems to be a show built around local boy Demetrious Johnson, and, well, things between UFC and the flyweight champ haven't been going great, apparently holding up that announcement. Past that, newcomer Azamat Murzakanov is out of his debut in Oklahoma City, so Joachim Christensen will instead face California's Dominick Reyes, a top light heavyweight prospect. Chad Laprise steps into the open spot against Brian Camozzi at UFC 213, and because we can't have nice things, Doo Ho Choi is injured and out of his UFC 214 bout against Andre Fili. *Also, Combate in Brazil leaked a bunch of dates for the rest of UFC's 2017 schedule, though it isn't completely finalized, and is probably missing a few things - there figure to be a few more Fight Night cards, plus I don't see the typical December card on Fox. As mentioned above, UFC 215 is still targeted for August 19th in Seattle, though the company's been waiting on that announcement. In between Edmonton and Japan, there's a yet to be announced Fight Night card on September 16th, from somewhere in the United States. October only has two cards at the moment - UFC 217 from Vegas on the 7th, and a Fight Night card from Sao Paulo on the 28th. November sees a card every weekend - November 4th is apparently the date of UFC's return to Madison Square Garden for UFC 218, and then the 11th sees a card from an undetermined American City. From there, UFC goes to Asia for cards on the 19th and the 25th - there's been talk of UFC returning to South Korea, as well as talk of a show in Perth now that Western Australia has lifted its cage-fighting ban, so I'd assume those would be your favorites. The first weekend of December sees back to back shows, as the TUF 26 finale to crown the first women's flyweight champion takes place on Friday the 1st, and the 2nd will apparently be UFC's return to Detroit for UFC 219. And, as previously announced, UFC 220 will take place in Vegas on December 30th. ----- UPCOMING UFC SHOWS: 6/25 - UFC Fight Night 112 - Oklahoma City, OK - Michael Chiesa vs. Kevin Lee, Tim Boetsch vs. Johny Hendricks, B.J. Penn vs. Dennis Siver 7/7 - TUF 25 Finale - Las Vegas, NV - Justin Gaethje vs. Michael Johnson 7/8 - UFC 213 - Las Vegas, NV - Amanda Nunes ( c ) vs. Valentina Shevchenko, Yoel Romero vs. Robert Whittaker, Donald Cerrone vs. Robbie Lawler 7/16 - UFC Fight Night 113 - Glasgow, Scotland - Gunnar Nelson vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio, Joanne Calderwood vs. Cynthia Calvillo 7/22 - UFC on Fox 25 - Uniondale, NY - Kelvin Gastelum vs. Chris Weidman, Dennis Bermudez vs. Darren Elkins, Thomas Almeida vs. Jimmie Rivera 7/29 - UFC 214 - Anaheim, CA - Daniel Cormier ( c ) vs. Jon Jones, Jimi Manuwa vs. Volkan Oezdemir, Jason Knight vs. Ricardo Lamas 8/5 - UFC Fight Night 114 - Mexico City, Mexico - Brandon Moreno vs. Sergio Pettis, Sam Alvey vs. Rashad Evans 9/2 - UFC Fight Night 115 - Rotterdam, Netherlands - Stefan Struve vs. Alexander Volkov 9/9 - UFC 216 - Edmonton, AB - Henry Cejudo vs. Wilson Reis, Rick Glenn vs. Gavin Tucker ----- UFC Fight Night 111 - June 17, 2017 - Singapore Indoor Stadium - Kallang, Singapore A strange little card, but a fun one for a Fight Pass card taking place out of Singapore. For the last few years, Fight Pass cards have mostly been fairly nothing affairs, with main events like Derrick Lewis versus Shamil Abdurakhimov, or Paddy Holohan against Louis Smolka, but this one actually has a main card with both some starpower and some stakes. Admittedly, the main event isn't really that great of a main event, as Holly Holm is in the weird spot of being one of UFC's most recognizable faces while watching her career spiral downward, but UFC tried here, which is frankly more than I expected. Though, as for the prelim card, the best I can say is that typically one or two of these fights would be on a Fight Pass main card, and thankfully UFC didn't do that this time around. MAIN CARD (UFC Fight Pass - 8:00 AM ET): Women's Bantamweight: (#5) Holly Holm vs. (#11) Bethe Correia Heavyweight: (#8) Andrei Arlovski vs. (#13) Marcin Tybura Welterweight: (#7) Dong Hyun Kim vs. Colby Covington Welterweight: (#11) Tarec Saffiedine vs. (#5 Lightweight) Rafael dos Anjos PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC Fight Pass - 4:45 AM ET): Lightweight: Takanori Gomi vs. Jon Tuck Heavyweight: Cyril Asker vs. Walt Harris Featherweight: Alex Caceres vs. Rolando Dy Flyweight: Ulka Sasaki vs. Justin Scoggins Welterweight: Frank Camacho vs. Jingliang Li Bantamweight: Russell Doane vs. Kwan Ho Kwak Flyweight: C.J. de Tomas vs. Naoki Inoue Women's Bantamweight: Ji Yeon Kim vs. Lucie Pudilova THE RUNDOWN: Holly Holm (10-3 overall, 3-3 UFC, 1-0 Bellator) vs. Bethe Correia (10-2-1 overall, 4-2-1 UFC): When Ronda Rousey shockingly suffered her first defeat back in November of 2015, it looked like UFC might actually be fairly fine - obviously Holly Holm wasn't going to be quite the mainstream star that Rousey was, but she got a huge boost from her huge win over UFC's biggest mainstream star, and if she could hang onto the belt until Rousey came back, the rematch would do huge business. Whoops. Pretty much all was going to plan for about four and a half rounds when Holm was defending her belt against Miesha Tate, as save a second round where Tate exposed Holm's lack of a ground game, Holm was pretty much able to keep Tate at a distance standing and prevent her from doing anything. But in the last two minutes of the fight, Tate went for one more desperation takedown and got it, eventually choking Holm unconscious in memorable fashion and setting all of UFC's plans on fire. But hey, things would probably still work out in the long run - Rousey and Tate's rivalry was one of the best in the sport, and now between those two and Holm, you had three marketable rematches where you once only had one. Whoops. July came around, Tate got smashed by Amanda Nunes and would be retired by the end of the year, and Holm pretty much saw her career careen out of control. I could see why UFC thought Valentina Shevchenko would be a solid bounce-back win for Holm, as did most people; Shevchenko comes from a Muay Thai background, but Holm is one of the most decorated female boxers of all-time, so with striking being Holm's strength, she should be able to outbox Shevchenko fairly easily. And that held true for, well, about a round - in fairly short order, Shevchenko started to figure out and counter Holm's strikes, and from there Holm was fairly helpless; she was a fairly rote striker against someone who turned out to be more diverse in Shevchenko, and Shevchenko was even able to get inside and once again expose Holm's lack of a real grappling game. From there, it was onto the disaster that was the women's featherweight title fight against Germaine de Randamie; once again, Holm didn't really seem to have a plan B against a kickboxer that could pretty much match her, and once again, Holm lost a decision. So now losing three straight and not having won a fight since that huge upset over Rousey, UFC and Holm's management are trying again to get her a win, this time against Bethe Correia. Correia is a weird fighter. She's one of the bigger punchlines on the UFC roster, and in a sense, rightfully so; in most of her interviews, she comes off like a delusional loon, she might be the least athletic fighter on the roster, and she pretty much trash-talked her way into a 34-second knockout loss to Rousey. But, in a way, Correia's also kind of good, considering that she was discovered when she was a chubby accountant trying to lose weight who happened to hit a heavy big really hard; she's a solid, technical striker, and while that complete lack of athleticism probably won't get her much higher than number ten or so in the world, she's also basically become the best Bethe Correia she can be and gotten to about number ten in the world. As for the fight, Holm pretty much has to win this, although it's way closer than it has any right to be. Correia actually showed some wrestling in her last fight, a draw against Marion Reneau, and I could see a scenario where Correia has some success doing just that, and basically neutralizing Holm and her complete lack of a ground game. If this was a three-round fight, I might be more confidence in Correia stealing two rounds and getting a decision, but over the course of five, Holm's speed, athleticism, and pace should see her be able to pick Correia apart standing more often than not. Again, I think this could be closer than anyone thinks it should be, but my pick is Holm by decision to finally pick up another win. Andrei Arlovski (25-14 [1] overall, 14-8 UFC, 0-3 Strikeforce) vs. Marcin Tybura (15-2 overall, 2-1 UFC): Well, things sure turned around quickly for Andrei Arlovski, and it's not the first time anyone has said that. It was about a decade ago that Arlovski first left the UFC; he was still one of the top heavyweights in the world, but a boring loss in a title fight against Tim Sylvia and a horrible fight against Fabricio Werdum pretty much killed interest in him, so when his contract was up, UFC decided to let him go after the absurd money that Affliction was offering at the time. At first, Arlovski had some success, knocking out Ben Rothwell and Roy Nelson, but a quick loss to Fedor Emilianenko started a run where Arlovski's career just fell apart - Affliction folded, and Arlovski signed with Strikeforce only to lose three straight, most notably getting knocked out in just 22 seconds by Brett Rogers. So, cut from Strikeforce, and pretty much written off as a shopworn vet whose chin had cracked for good, Arlovski pretty much became a MMA vagabond, taking fights all over the world, wherever they were offered, including a few bouts in World Series of Fighting. And, well, Arlovski won a lot of fights, with his only loss coming via decision to Anthony Johnson - and even that showed Arlovski could hang with a power puncher like Johnson without getting knocked out. Still, it was a bit surprising when UFC re-signed Arlovski in 2014, and even more surprising when Arlovski reeled off four straight wins - including one of the better fights on 2015 in a brawl against Travis Browne - to suddenly become a title contender. After that fight, there was some talk of giving Arlovski a shot before his luck ran out, but that never came to pass - instead, he got an unwatchable decision win over Frank Mir, and then, well, that luck ran out pretty quickly. Stipe Miocic ran through Arlovski in just 54 seconds to earn a title shot at the beginning of 2016, and that started a similar run to what we saw in Strikeforce - a knockout loss to Alistair Overeem, a decent showing but eventual submission loss at the hands of Josh Barnett, and most recently, getting annihilated by rising prospect Francis Ngannou in just 92 seconds this January. So, at 38, Andrei Arlovski tries to resurrect his career once again, and hopes that starts against Poland's Marcin Tybura. Tybura's a pretty interesting fighter, as he established himself as one of the best heavyweights in Europe when UFC signed him, though there were some questions about how his game would translate to the UFC level. And indeed, he struggled in his UFC debut against Tim Johnson; at about 250 pounds, Tybura is undersized for a UFC heavyweight - which does remind me of the old adage about 6'6" basketball players going into the only job where they'd be undersized - and on a roster where UFC signs a lot of guys who cut down to the 265 weight limit, he had trouble getting any of his grappling going against Johnson. But Tybura's looked good since - he's improved his striking greatly, and while he got smothered a bit by Brazilian wrestler Luis Henrique in his last fight, Tybura got the better of things on the feet and was able to regain control late when Henrique started to tire. I'm not sure if he's a future contender, but at the very least Tybura is one of UFC's better heavyweight signings in the last few years, and should remain a divisional stalwart as guys start to age out. As far as the fight, it's a difficult one to call, since neither guy can really take advantage of the other's main weakness; if Tybura was more of a one-hitter quitter, I could easily see him knock out Arlovski, while Arlovski really works more in space than doing the type of bullying that can sometimes stifle Tybura. So this should be a close decision, and waffling back and forth on the pick, I'll take Tybura - while I don't think Arlovski is done or anything, Tybura's game does seem to be clicking on all cylinders, and I think he can be solid enough on the feet while having the advantage if the two ever choose to grapple. Dong Hyun Kim (22-3-1 [1] overall, 13-3 [1] UFC) vs. Colby Covington (11-1 overall, 6-1 UFC): A really interesting fight here, as Colby Covington finally gets a shot at a high-level opponent after some odd matchmaking in his UFC career thus far. Covington came into UFC fairly raw back in 2014, but with a bunch of hype - a former junior college wrestling teammate of Jon Jones, Covington bounced around a bit thanks to some, ahem, off-the-court issues, but eventually had a decorated wrestling career at Oregon State. And UFC brought him along rather slowly at first, not even really giving him anyone who would test him, allowing him to run through international TUF washouts like Anying Wang and Wagner Silva. But after a win over Mike Pyle and a quick loss to fellow prospect Warlley Alves where Covington pretty much dove right into a guillotine, UFC weirdly decided to start all over with Covington. The start of 2016 saw UFC just feed debuting guys Jonathan Meunier and Max Griffin to Covington, which pretty much accomplished nothing; Covington was just able to rely on his wrestling and dominate before finishing off each guy late. And even when UFC finally threw Covington a decent opponent, in tough prospect-killer Bryan Barberena, it was still pretty much the same story - Covington flashed a bit more striking, but just more or less wrestled his way to a victory. So, finally, we should be able to learn something about Covington, since I don't think he can just outright out-wrestle longtime welterweight contender Dong Hyun Kim. Kim was the first South Korean fighter or any real prominence in the UFC, which makes it kind of amusing in retrospect how much he fought against type; most Korean fighters are pretty much all-offense, no-defense, but Kim spent years as pretty much a boring judoka, neutralizing most of his opponents and just hanging around the fringes of the top ten. But, amusingly, Kim's November 2013 fight against Erick Silva saw him suddenly decide to reverse course and just start going bananas, and even weirder, it actually kind of worked. Kim knocked out Silva with a crazy overhand, and then uncorked what seems to be the consensus best knockout of 2014, putting away John Hathaway with a beautiful spinning elbow that sent the Brit crumbling to the mat. But then Kim was matched against Tyron Woodley, and flew a little too close to the sun - he went for that same spinning elbow, whiffed badly, and at that point was a sitting duck to get annihilated by Woodley in just 61 seconds. And since then, it's been sort of a weird run, not helped by a bunch of injuries to either Kim or his opponent that have made his appearances fairly rare; Kim looked like his more aggressive, inconsistent self in a win over Josh Burkman, and then just ran through overmatched injury replacement Dominic Waters, but his last fight against Tarec Saffiedine saw Kim kind of retreat back to his more boring, control-heavy style, even if it only got him a split decision this time around. It's a bit of a hard fight to call, if only because Covington's entire game is basically going to be trying to put Kim on his back, and the Korean hasn't faced anyone who's tried to do that since...Demian Maia in 2012? So there's a chance that for all his judo skill, Covington can still get Kim to the ground, and from there it's unclear exactly what Kim can do from the bottom. But, more likely, Kim can either neutralize that or, as the much bigger fighter, even take control of things in the grappling realm himself - and even it remains standing, as wild as Kim's striking can be, I still trust it more than Covington's completely unproven, if seemingly improving, offerings on the feet. It's an interesting test for both guys, even if I'm very unsure as to how entertaining it'll be, and I'll take Kim by a fairly clear decision. Tarec Saffiedine (16-6 overall, 2-3 UFC, 6-1 Strikeforce) vs. Rafael dos Anjos (25-9 overall, 14-7 UFC): It's funny to think that, at this time last year, Rafael dos Anjos was making his case as one of the most dominant lightweights in the history of the division, but now, he's not even a lightweight anymore. Dos Anjos's run came completely out of nowhere, as for the first few years of his UFC career, he was pretty much a mid-tier submission artist who'd alternate wins and losses. But under coach Rafael Cordeiro, his striking suddenly clicked, and dos Anjos started a run where he won ten out of eleven fights (Khabib Nurmagomedov is really good), culminating in a dominant five-round win over lightweight champ Anthony Pettis and a 66-second title defense over Donald Cerrone. From there, dos Anjos was slated to be the unlikely B-side to a huge Conor McGregor fight, as after dispatching of Jose Aldo, McGregor set his eyes on dos Anjos's lightweight title. But then dos Anjos broke his foot, Nate Diaz stepped in to spark one of the best rivalries in the history of the sport, and the lightweight title was temporarily an afterthought when it came to McGregor. But again, at this time last year, it looked like dos Anjos would get his big money fight soon enough; his next challenger, Eddie Alvarez, seemed to be getting more of a lifetime achievement title shot than anything else, and McGregor would eventually come calling for that lightweight belt again. Dos Anjos did in fact look well on his way to beating Alvarez in the first few minutes of their fight, but then Alvarez landed a perfect punch to stun dos Anjos and send things down the path of a first-round finish; and indeed, shortly thereafter it was Alvarez that was the unlikely headliner opposite McGregor at Madison Square Garden. After another loss to Tony Ferguson in a really close fight between two top contenders, dos Anjos surprisingly announced a move up to welterweight; surprisingly if only because dos Anjos still figured to have success at 155, and he wasn't really thought of as a particularly giant lightweight or anyone who had trouble cutting weight. So, seven months later, dos Anjos makes his welterweight debut against Tarec Saffiedine, who's badly in need of a win. Saffiedine was a nice story during the dying days of Strikeforce; the Belgian was a fighter that the promotion slowly developed, working his way up the card before eventually beating Nate Marquardt for their welterweight title in the last-ever Strikeforce fight. But Saffiedine has struggled to find a foothold since he came over into the UFC; injuries limited him to only two fights in his first three years with the promotion, and his technical kickboxing game has proven fairly low-ceiling, as guys like Rick Story and Dong Hyun Kim have been able to control him rather handily. And honestly, I see this matchmaking as UFC losing a bit of faith in Saffiedine, since coming off two straight losses, I'm surprised they'd give him a tough next fight if they wanted to keep him strong as a contender. On paper, this seems like a fairly clear dos Anjos win; dos Anjos and Saffiedine are roughly the same size, and the style matchup greatly favors the former lightweight champ, as he should be able to pressure and control Saffiedine fairly easily and just implement whatever offense he wants. And there's also an extremely low chance of something like the dos Anjos/Alvarez fight, since I doubt Saffiedine can hit a perfect knockout punch; Saffiedine only has one career knockout, and has always been a guy content to ride out a technical decision rather than press for any sort of finish. So my pick is dos Anjos by a fairly one-sided decision, with the possibility of a late stoppage. Takanori Gomi (35-12 [1] overall, 4-7 UFC, 13-1 [1] PRIDE) vs. Jon Tuck (9-4 overall, 3-4 UFC): So it's come to this. About a decade ago, Takanori Gomi was one of the consensus best lightweights in the world, and definitely the best in Japan; with his athleticism and a wild style, Gomi pretty much blew through the competition in exciting fashion. After a few losses, Gomi signed with UFC in 2010, and was considered to be just past his prime; and indeed, while he did decently enough for the first few years, he was mostly just an action mid-card fighter, a far cry from his glory days. But after a fun decision win over Isaac Vallie-Flagg in April of 2014, the wheels have completely fallen off for Gomi, who's been fairly notorious for not really taken care of his body - the athleticism has slipped, and so has Gomi's chin, which combined with his offensively wild, defensively open style, has resulted in a string of first-round losses, as he's dropped bouts to Myles Jury, Joe Lauzon, and Jim Miller in a combined six and a half minutes. So, we're at the point that UFC needs to go pretty far down the ladder to see if Gomi has anything left, and so he faces Guam's Jon Tuck, who's been on his way to sliding out of the UFC himself. Tuck had a decent showing on TUF 15 while losing to Al Iaquinta to get into the house, but he was brought in shortly thereafter as an obvious setup guy for a card in Macau, as he was put against Chinese fighter Tiequan Zhang. That did not work, since Tiequan Zhang is awful, and Tuck wound up winning the decision. From there, he's kind of hung around as a frustrating talent; he's athletic and dynamic enough to get some wins over roster fodder, but his overall game is just sort of a mess and not enough to beat anyone decent. His last two fights showed this - he faced a fight last May against Josh Emmett where he just kept getting beaten to the punch and didn't really pull the trigger, and then turned around and lost a fight to Damien Brown in the exact opposite fashion, as he roared out to a big first round and then gassed himself into losing the last two. Still, as broken as Tuck's game is, he still has those moments of dynamism, and Gomi looks completely shot, so this'll probably be a quick Tuck victory - I say the Guamanian stuns Gomi on the feet, then gets a submission in the first round. Cyril Asker (8-2 overall, 1-1 UFC) vs. Walt Harris (9-5 overall, 2-4 UFC): This should be a fun lower-level heavyweight bout. It remains to be seen if Walt Harris will ever put it together, but if he does, watch out - the former basketball player for Jacksonville State is a physical specimen and, for now at age 34, a top-shelf athlete, but for a while, that didn't really amount to much; Harris was a quick two-and-out in the UFC the first time around, and after picking up a regional win, got re-signed as a late replacement only to lose to Soa Palelei. And honestly, even Harris's 2016 wasn't super-amazing; he did pick up a win over Cody East, but that was the type of come-from-behind knockout that happens at heavyweight, and a loss to Shamil Abdurakhimov was fairly flat. But, this January, Harris did put together the best performance of his career against Chase Sherman, showing off some impressive combinations and finally pulling the trigger, so maybe there's hope just yet. And frankly, France's Cyril Asker probably won't be much of a challenge. Given that MMA is banned in France, Asker instead plied his trade in South Africa and did well there, but as expected, his wrestling hasn't really translated up a level, as Asker's just kind of overmatched as an athlete. And while Asker did rebound from a rough UFC debut with a ground-and-pound win over Dmitrii Smoliakov, Smoliakov also may be the worst of UFC's recent heavyweight signings. I do like Asker, just personally, since he does seem like a nice guy win some charisma, but I don't really like his chances to hang around in the UFC because there's going to be a lot of fights like these, where he probably can't get things to the ground and doesn't have much firepower on the feet. So I'm taking Harris by a fairly easy first-round knockout. Alex Caceres (12-10 [1] overall, 7-8 [1] UFC) vs. Rolando Dy (8-4 [1] overall): Well, this is a fight that's just sort of...happening now. Initially, this was supposed to be the debut of Chinese fighter Guan Wang - when the card from Singapore was first announced, Dana White said that it would feature their next Chinese star, and it came out a few weeks later that it was Wang, a veteran featherweight with a bunch of knockouts. In fairly short order, Wang was tied to a fight with Alex Caceres on this card, but when everything was finalized, Caceres was instead facing Filipino newcomer Rolando Dy without any explanation. So...this is just a fight, basically. Caceres is a frustrating talent - it was a bit surprising when UFC picked him up, but they must have liked his "Bruce Leeroy" persona on his season of TUF; but after a rocky start, Caceres paid off UFC's faith in him and went on a five-fight unbeaten streak, consisting of four lower-tier opponents and then a big submission win over Sergio Pettis. But as with a lot of fighters, a big win basically led Caceres being thrown into fights over his head, so that gave way to a three-fight losing streak. 2016 saw Caceres move up to featherweight, and results have been mixed - in general, he's still the same sort of mid-level fighter he's always been, but it's almost impressive how inconsistent Caceres is even in the same fight; his win at UFC 199 over Cole Miller was probably a career-best performance, but even that saw Caceres sort of careen out of control and lose a one-sided third round. As for Dy, I'm actually a bit impressed, since I was dreading watching tape of him - his record isn't exactly stellar, plus the Filipino scene often cranks out fighters that are more fun than good. But I saw some solid striking and power, plus some grappling that, while not great, was at least better than some of his countrymen. I'm still not predicting a ton of UFC success for Dy, but he could be a guy who sticks around picking off some of the other lower-level fighters on the fringes of the roster. But as for this fight, Caceres has enough talent and skill to win this fairly easily, though given how inconsistent he is, it'll almost surely wind up being a fight that's closer than it needs to be. Still, my pick is Caceres by clear decision. Ulka Sasaki (19-4-2 overall, 2-3 UFC) vs. Justin Scoggins (11-3 overall, 4-3 UFC): The clear highlight of this prelim card, this should be a fun scrap between two flyweight prospects looking for a win. Justin Scoggins is an interesting one - the South Carolina native is a former training partner of Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson, and looked like a future champion after two impressive wins upon his UFC debut. So, of course, UFC rushed him into fights with higher-level opponents, which was a mixed bag; Scoggins acquitted himself well, as he probably should've gotten the split decision nod against Dustin Ortiz, and he was beating John Moraga until he got himself tapped out, but at the end of the day it was two unnecessary losses. From there, Scoggins was sort of forgotten - he got a win over Josh Sampo to stay afloat, and then struggled with injuries, but then he used his striking game to pretty much entirely shut down rising contender Ray Borg, and suddenly Scoggins was a top prospect at flyweight once again. He was slated to face Ian McCall last summer, but, of course, Scoggins suddenly found himself unable to make flyweight, and a one-off bout at bantamweight turned out to be what's becoming a classic Scoggins loss - he was winning rather handily, but tripped while throwing a kick and got immediately tapped out by Pedro Munhoz. So Scoggins attempts to return to 125, and does so against Japanese prospect Ulka Sasaki. Sasaki was supposed to be help lead the next wave of Japanese prospects, but after two bad losses, his UFC career seemed basically dead on arrival. But a cut to flyweight turned things around; Sasaki is gigantic for the division at 5'11", and was able to beat Willie Gates and have a super-game showing against former title challenger Wilson Reis this past February. But this really does seem like a Scoggins win - admittedly, Scoggins is at his best when he's able to use his karate and keep opponents at a distance, and Sasaki's massive wingspan may make that a bit difficult, but Sasaki's size means he's always hittable on the feet, and Scoggins should be able to take full advantage of that. Though, that said, Sasaki is a dangerous grappler, so this figures to be one of those fights where Scoggins should dominate the balance, but is basically able to make either a dumb decision or a dumb mistake at any moment and find himself suddenly getting tapped out. But still, I expect that Scoggins decision win, and this should be a really fun fight. Frank Camacho (20-4 overall) vs. Jingliang Li (12-4 overall, 4-2 UFC): UFC tried unsuccessfully to break into China back in 2014 - and, given that they're signing some more Chinese talent, they might be going for it again - but all they really have to show for it is Jingliang Li, who, frankly, is still way better than anyone could've expected. Li's nickname is "The Leech", and when he came into UFC, that was pretty much fair, as he was just sort of a smothering wrestler, but as time has gone on and Li's been able to diversify his training, he's actually become a fairly fun mid-tier brawler. Add in some charisma that transcends the language barrier, and Li's an easy guy to like; plus there's some novelty to him being the one good Chinese fighter. Li was initially supposed to face Canadian prospect Jonathan Meunier, but with Meunier heart, Li instead faces UFC newcomer Frank Camacho, who, best I can tell, is UFC's first fighter out of the Northern Mariana Islands, an American commonwealth near Guam. Camacho was briefly on UFC's radar in 2012, as he lost a fight to get into the TUF house against Neil Magny, and since then he's been sort of a regional journeyman for cards out on the Pacific Rim. But as far as journeymen go, Camacho's a good addition to the roster; in his wins, he absolutely smokes opponents, and in general he's sort of a low-level brawler that throws a ton of heat and, given the level, has had a bunch of success. Between the recent track record of both Li and Camacho, this figures to be a ridiculous brawl, and while Li isn't such a world-beater that he can't lose here, he is the much better fighter and should be able to score a first-round knockout. Russell Doane (14-7 overall, 2-4 UFC) vs. Kwan Ho Kwak (9-1 overall, 0-1 UFC): A really fun fight here and, along with Sasaki/Scoggins, a clear highlight of the undercard, though it does suck a bit that the loser will likely be cut. And if that loser is Russell Doane, he'll almost surely be cut, as the Hawaiian gets the rare last shot at a win after losing four straight fights. 2014 saw Doane debut and go through the typical B-level prospect path at bantamweight, winning two fights and then losing to perennial division gatekeeper Iuri Alcantara. And then Doane followed that up with an immensely frustrating loss - facing powerful wrestler Jerrod Sanders, Doane kept trying to implement his scrambling submission game, only to keep getting reversed and shut down by Sanders. Doane then took about a year off thanks to injuries, and in that time, improved greatly, showing some much more fluid striking in the vein of his teammate, Max Holloway; but unfortunately, that coincided with a step up in competition that still prevented Doane from having much success. Doane was pretty much used as a bounce-back fight for top prospect Pedro Munhoz, and then accepted a late-notice fight a weight class up at 145 to take on, and lose in fairly one-sided fashion, to uber-prospect Mirsad Bektic. But taking that Bektic fight probably earned Doane this fifth shot at a win, and it comes against South Korea's Kwan Ho Kwak. Kwak was probably the top bantamweight free agent in Asia when UFC picked him up last year, and it's easy to see why he's a top prospect, as Kwak is a ridiculous athlete with a penchant for throwing flashy kicks. But he has a ton of trouble against straight ahead wrestlers - a lot of Kwak's fights that I've watched see him look awesome when his opponent is forced to stand with them, and then make you wonder how he even got into the UFC when he's trying to fight from the bottom. In some regional title fights, the game still held together since Kwak appears to have excellent cardio, leaving his opponents too exhausted to take him down by the later rounds, but his UFC debut was pretty much the worst possible matchup, as fellow newcomer and excellent grappler Brett Johns just pretty much took Kwak down and schooled on him. I go back and forth on this fight - for all his improved striking, and for how much Doane has been too eager to grapple in the past, he actually should rely on that old gameplan here, as if he can get Kwak to the mat, he should be able to win rounds fairly easily. But, of course, the question is if he can get him there, since Kwak is such a ridiculous athlete and can often use that athleticism, rather than any sort of technique, to escape when his opponent tries to shoot. I have the feeling this is going to be a close decision either way, but I'll go with a bit of an upset and say Doane ekes out a decision, though I hope Kwak can still stick on the roster if that's the case. C.J. de Tomas (8-0 overall) vs. Naoki Inoue (10-0 overall): Well, UFC continues to have no idea what the hell they're doing with the flyweight division, or if they even want to have one, but at least they signed two pretty good prospects to face each other here. Japan's Naoki Inoue figured to be the youngest fighter on the roster when he debuted, but with Chan Mi Jeon getting signed as a late replacement in the interim, he'll have to settle for second, as he's racked up a 10-0 record before his 20th birthday. (Which will happen when you start your career before you even turn 17.) Tape on Inoue is rather scarce, but based off what's there, he's kind of the opposite of his sister, strawweight prodigy Mizuki Inoue - Naoki's striking is sort of a wild work in progress, but as soon as things go to the mat, he's a ridiculously slick submission artist given his experience, as his long frame allows him to successfully try all sorts of aggressive stuff. He faces top Filipino prospect Carls John de Tomas, who at 20 years old, is the old man of this matchup. I like de Tomas as a prospect - like a lot of Filipino fighters, he has a solid striking base that should lend itself well to having action fights, and for the level of competition, he has a pretty effective wrestling game to fall back on if he ever finds himself in trouble. Still, I think the first time that de Tomas tries one of those takedowns, he's going to find himself getting tapped out, and I think he's going to try a takedown fairly early - so my pick is Inoue by first-round submission. Still, both guys are interesting prospects, though given that UFC's flyweight division is sort of a shark tank without many easy fights, I do worry about the ability of both guys to stick on the roster long enough to develop. Ji Yeon Kim (6-0-2 overall) vs. Lucie Pudilova (6-2 overall, 0-1 UFC): A solid enough women's bantamweight fight here, as it's always good to see two prospects in a thin division. Czechia's Lucie Pudilova acquitted herself well in her UFC debut - a late injury replacement, Pudilova was tabbed for a rematch of a regional fight against Lina Lansberg. And while the first fight saw Lansberg mostly just pin the 5'11" Pudilova against the cage, Pudilova showed off the improvements she made in the ensuing sixteen months when it was time for the rematch; she still lost the fight, but there were large swaths where she was just beating the piss out of Lansberg's face, bloodying her up while carrying herself with a ton of swagger. Pudilova looks to build off that and get her first UFC win against South Korean newcomer Ji Yeon Kim, who's a solid prospect in her own right. Kim was actually apparently UFC's first option to face Holly Holm before Holm's management turned it down, I guess figuring an easy win over someone with no name value wasn't something they were interested in. Kim pretty much fits in the Korean archetype of charging forward with little regard for defense, but she does so in the name of being a fairly dogged wrestler, looking to take her opponent down and work for all sorts of stuff. It's a pretty binary fight - if Kim can bull Pudilova to the ground and work from there, she should be able to roll, but if Pudilova can keep it standing, I see this as Kim just charging forward into all manner of strikes. I tend to lean towards Kim not being a strong enough athlete to dictate this fight, so I'll take Pudilova by decision, though this could wind up being a really fun way to start the card.

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