#ivr calculation

[haloocomm]

IVR stands for Interactive Voice Response. It is a technology that allows a computer to interact with humans through the use of voice and DTMF tones input via a keypad. IVR systems are commonly used in telephone systems to provide automated phone menus and gather information from callers. They can also be used for various purposes such as banking, ordering products, and more. It's a method of providing automated services through a phone call, without the need for human interaction.

[lounesdarbois]

Dans l’enquête qui nous concerne, cette ingénierie, cette technique, cette école, cette ascèse, c’est la religion catholique bien comprise, relue à la lumière du temps d’invasion-propagande-prédation actuel, temps de persécution. « Il y a beaucoup de maisons dans la maison de mon père. » Il y a assez de place dans l’Église pour une maison française, européenne, strictement organique (donc sans moi, qui m’arrête à son seuil mais qui l’aime et veille sur elle). Ces principes sont décrits par des auteurs comme Julien Langella, comme tous ceux qui entendent concilier foi et identité, et qui s’appuient sur l’exégèse biblique et l’apologétique, disciplines que peu de chrétiens étudient.

(...)

Nouveaux pèlerins, vous cherchez vraiment la vie chrétienne ? Vous ne pouvez plus vous habiller comme des primitifs, vous ne pouvez plus parler comme des primitifs, vous ne pouvez pas descendre vers des primitifs même temporairement par confort, pas d’un seul millimètre, sans quoi c’est la descente entièrement au primitif ontologique pour n’en plus jamais remonter. En temps d’effondrement vous ne pouvez pas « faire la fête ». On ne fait pas la fête quand on est assiégé. Vous ne pouvez pas paraître ivres en public comme les Hilotes devant les Spartiates, ni consommer du loisir, prendre du poids, descendre le courant avec les branches mortes. Les époques de vaches maigres sont des temps virils de réforme, de débarras, de concentration. Après le Carême viennent les délices du banquet de Pâques ; encore faut-il les mériter par les purgations du jeûne sans quoi on ne fait plus que bouffer pour se récompenser d’avoir bouffé, toute l’année, toute la vie. Le salaire des gaudrioles, c’est la honte, le déclassement, la mort, l’oubli.

Le suicide des adolescents harcelés à l’école, la persécution à travers le pays des jeunes Blancs sur les terrains de football urbain qui a fini par décourager tant de carrières prometteuses et défigurer l’équipe de « France » (le contre-exemple Griezmann formé en Espagne dit tout par ricochet), tant d’autres déshonneurs ordinaires, sont des plaies qui cicatrisent très vite à condition d’une hausse drastique des standards culturels.

(...)

Vive le prolétariat chrétien

Quand le gras domine sur le muscle, quand l’efféminé domine sur le bonhomme, alors c’est la dictature des bourgeois-bordel sur une Église-armée-mexicaine. C’est le modèle exactement contraire qui est chrétien, et qui commence au prolétariat choyé, révéré, spécifiquement favorisé. Ouvriers, techniciens, artisans, un prolétariat français chrétien qui maîtrise les métiers indépendants productifs, formé sur le modèle de l’école de la Martinerie : non-mixité, sobriété, technique.

Le prolétaire, étymologiquement, c’est l’homme dont la seule richesse sont ses enfants. Qu’est-ce qui a perdu le Liban ? La Syrie chrétienne ? C’est la vie bourgeoise, le mesquin principe du « pas trop d’enfants », la radinerie du « pas de premier enfant avant 30 ans ». En pleine Syrie 2013, en plein merdier, une petite effrontée de l’ultra minoritaire communauté chrétienne restante, propriétaire d’un restaurant payé par sa famille articulait ceci à un camarade. « Quoi ? Tu n’as pas cinq cent mille euros sur ton compte en banque ? Tu ne te marieras jamais », authentique. Le principe de toutes les libanisations par guerre des berceaux tient peut-être en cette phrase. Stérilité par calcul bourgeois. Tous les parents de familles françaises nombreuses se sont mariés jeunes et pauvres, ont commencé par souffrir et non par jouir, pour ensuite s’enrichir. Leurs maisons sont rangées, vivantes, ils prient, ils travaillent, ils chantent, ils lisent, ils s’entraînent, ils s’entraident. Tout le contraire des couples catastrophes qui eux commencent par le plus agréable : la baise, le restaurant, le voyage ; en un an ils ont déjà tout ratissé et aux premiers nuages qui s’amoncellent ils ouvrent chacun un parapluie différent au lieu d’en prendre un pour deux et de se serrer dessous ensemble.

[blogzzs-world]

Transform Your Customer Service with Advanced Inbound Call Management Systems

In the domain of client care, where each association counts, organizations are continually looking for creative ways of upgrading the nature of their administrations while improving functional proficiency. In this computerized age, where client assumptions are higher than at any other time, high level inbound call the executives frameworks have arisen as key devices for associations hoping to reform their client care insight. Gone are the times of customary call-dealing with strategies tormented by significant delays, disconnected processes, and baffled clients. To streamline operations, increase agent productivity, and provide exceptional customer experiences, businesses today are utilizing sophisticated inbound call management systems with advanced features.

Adaptive Call Routing

High level inbound call the board frameworks utilize canny call steering calculations to guarantee that approaching calls are coordinated to the most suitable specialist in light of different standards, for example, range of abilities, language inclination, and accessibility. By directing calls to the right specialist all along, organizations can limit stand by times, diminish call moves, and upgrade first-call goal rates, subsequently further developing by and large consumer loyalty.

Intelligent Voice Reaction (IVR) Frameworks

IVR frameworks permit clients to communicate with robotized menus utilizing voice or keypad inputs, empowering them to explore through different choices and self-administration functionalities without the requirement for specialist help. Businesses can provide personalized, efficient, and seamless experiences to their customers round-the-clock with advanced IVR capabilities like natural language processing and personalized routing. This also frees up agents to focus on more complex queries.

Constant Examination and Detailing

Powerful analytics and reporting tools in contemporary inbound call management systems provide real-time insights into call volumes, agent performance, customer trends, and more. By utilizing these examination, organizations can go with information driven choices to advance their call taking care of cycles, distinguish regions for development, and at last upgrade the general proficiency and viability of their client support activities.

Coordination with CRM Frameworks

Coordination with Client Relationship The executives (CRM) frameworks empowers consistent admittance to client information and collaboration history during calls, engaging specialists to give customized and logically significant help. By outfitting specialists with exhaustive client bits of knowledge, organizations can encourage more grounded connections, expect client needs, and convey customized arrangements, accordingly driving client faithfulness and maintenance.

Versatility and Adaptability

High level inbound call the executives frameworks are intended to scale flawlessly with the developing requirements of organizations, whether they are extending their tasks or encountering variances in call volumes. With adaptable sending choices, including cloud-based arrangements, organizations can undoubtedly adjust to evolving necessities, upgrade asset designation, and keep up with steady assistance levels in any event, during top periods.

Upgraded Security and Consistence

Security and consistence are vital in the present administrative climate, particularly while dealing with touchy client data via telephone. High level inbound call the executives frameworks consolidate hearty safety efforts, for example, encryption, access controls, and consistence affirmations, to protect client information and guarantee adherence to industry guidelines, consequently imparting trust and trust in clients.

Further developed Specialist Preparing and Execution

With elements, for example, call recording, call observing, and instructing functionalities, high level inbound call the executives frameworks work with progressing specialist preparing and execution the board. By examining call accounts and giving convenient input, organizations can distinguish preparing needs, screen specialist execution measurements, and carry out designated instructing projects to upgrade specialist abilities and information, eventually prompting higher consumer loyalty levels.

High level inbound call the board frameworks address a distinct advantage for organizations hoping to lift their client care higher than ever. Organizations can transform their customer service operations, drive operational efficiencies, deliver unparalleled experiences that keep customers coming back for more, and transform their operations by utilizing tools for intelligent call routing, interactive voice response, real-time analytics, CRM integration, scalability, security, and agent performance. Embrace the force of cutting edge inbound call the executives frameworks today and set out on an excursion to reclassify client care greatness.

Cleverotel provides the best telecommunications services in Kentucky. The connectivity solutions that are meticulously designed to cater to the unique requirements of both businesses and individuals throughout the entire state. The unwavering dedication to excellence ensures that you receive unparalleled services that perfectly align with your specific needs. Embrace the Cleverotel advantage and unleash the limitless potential of your communication capabilities.

[crmvoipsoftwaresolutions]

Everything You Need to Know About an Outbound Call Center

Many of you may still remember at least one instance of a persuasive call from an agent who would influence your buying decision sitting miles across. I still remember the day, when a call center agent nudged me into enrolling in an executive learning program. Sitting afar at an outbound call center, he listed out the merits and pointed out intangible gains that would last a lifetime. Truly, the power of the human touch and well-placed arguments can drive the customer through the sales funnel.  In the age of digital channels and AI (artificial intelligence) bots, outbound call center software may be perceived as an excess. However, in the long run, outbound call centers translate into a valuable asset to drive sales and customer experience. Let us understand its nuances and use.

What Is An Outbound Call Center? 

For most, a call center is just a setup for centralizing the customer service phone calling system using one of the best call center solutions. Normally, the distinction between outbound and inbound is overlooked and some also use it interchangeably. However, as an industry professional, you should have clarity.   An outbound call center refers to a facility usually set up for making outgoing phone calls by a business for sales, marketing, customer service, or general information. An outbound call center can be put to versatile use, depending on the organization. Public bodies and government offices also utilize outbound call centers for disseminating information and awareness initiatives, among others. A case in point is the widespread use of call centers for COVID-19-related information by government bodies worldwide.

Calculating Gains from Outbound Call Center

A simple principle deployed by any business is weighing the benefits versus costs. Before buying outbound call center software too, you should evaluate your gains carefully and make a wise decision. Traditionally, an outbound call center is perceived as a vehicle for communication by service providers like banks or insurance, not product companies.  However, today’s customer-centric focus has seen it shift from a nice-to-have list to a must-have for FMCG, e-commerce, and other industries shy of employing customer service for outbound calls. 

 Let’s take a quick look at a few benefits of an outbound call center. 

 Automation with Auto Dialers

Outbound call center solutions feature many advanced dialers nowadays that cut the time taken to dial each lead while automating the whole process. It is an efficient way to get the word out for a large volume of callers on the list. The auto dialers such as Predictive, Progressive, and Preview dialers completely change the calling process. Let us take a quick look at them. 

Predictive dialer

It is an automated dialing system for outbound calls. A predictive dialer dials each number from the contact list, eliminating the need for manual calling. It does this intelligently by detecting voicemails, unanswered calls, busy phone tones, disconnected or invalid numbers, and more. The agent is only notified when the phone is answered at the other end.

Preview dialer

Your sales and marketing teams are always juggling to fit in a maximum number of calls in a day and pick out leads. It is almost impossible to remember the details of each and every prospect before the call. A preview dialer can save you from misinformation and incomplete customer data by pulling out the relevant information before making the call. It will assist you in driving meaningful conversations and churning out qualified leads faster. Agents too feel empowered, which improves operational efficiency leading to zero downtime. 

Progressive dialer

This dialer is apt to focus on the premium customers and not get distracted by the clock. A progressive dialer only connects to the next customer once the call is over, mitigating call abandonments.

One-Click Announcements with IVR

Often the change in rules and regulations affects millions of customers in one go. You are required to meet compliance norms by informing each customer individually of any impact. Sometimes, customer awareness efforts comprise mass marketing, such as advertising campaigns to push app and website use and custom IVR (Integrated Voice Response) messages that guide customers on a particular aspect of product installation.  In such cases, IVR (Integrated Voice Response) in outbound call center systems can save you time and effort. You can relay customized automated voice messages to a large customer base in just a few clicks. 

Access Real-Time Reports

Ever wondered if the time and effort spent on calling customers are yielding any results? Or how did the agents fare on calling? 

With real-time reports available in outbound call center solutions, you can plan ahead and manage customer interactions better. One study found that the average difference in sales conversion rate between the top and bottom quartile performers was 230% in a particular industry operating.

How to Maximize Returns from Outbound Call Center: Use Case

Mostly only a handful of potential outbound contacts on the contact list are auctioned by companies. A Deloitte study found that a bank in the UK could potentially increase its revenue by 60 million pounds (based on a 5-year NPV) by giving a customer experience boost through outbound calls. The study found that calling the most profitable leads first with the highest predicted response could help the bank unlock the untapped revenue potential.  There is no one-size-fits-all solution. Outbound calling complemented with efforts such as digital and social channels can yield significantly higher results. Therefore, call center solutions provide these communication channels within the software. It is one of the most effective outbound call center tips that you should remember. A set of reports to monitor and measure calling activity by Gartner to understand agent utilization and productivity can aid you in devising the right plan, have a look. 

Adherence 

Occupancy 

Calls received

Calls handled 

Average handle time (seconds) 

Average wait time (seconds) 

After call Average time (seconds) 

Auxiliary codes

Calls transferred 

Outbound calls

Conclusion

In the era of customer-driven business, nothing is a panacea. Still, you can try to put your best foot forward and work towards establishing a comprehensive system to support your customer service and outreach needs. An outbound call center is one of the most important steps toward achieving excellence in customer service.

Using a powerful outbound call center solution can provide several advantages.

AC InfoSoft offers the best call center solutions for outbound call centers. The company also provides consultation and support services to set up or migrate an outbound contact center. Visit https://www.acinfosoft.com/ac-call-center-solution/ to learn more about outbound contact center solutions offered by the company. 

[loveperfectcreationcollecto-blog]

6 Ways To Improve Customer Experience Using IVR Solution

In today's changing business scenario, competition between companies has changed. A big factor that determines a company's success in the market is the customer experience (CX) provided by the brand. Customers associate good CX with good support. So we need to find new ways to easily engage with customers. 

With the emergence of more significant technological knowledge on the part of customers, many are self-service. Interactive Voice Response (IVR) by King Asterisk is a tool that allows customers to overcome the hassle of waiting time, unnecessary agent interactions, and find solutions faster.

Therefore, it is necessary to look at the optimization of IVR to bring the company to a higher growth curve and increase the retention rate of IVR.

Let's calculate the methods by which an IVR solution by King Asterisk Technologies can improve your customer Experience:

Effective call routing

Call management features in an IVR collect information from callers and efficiently route calls for self-service steps or to call center representatives who have been assigned to handle specific problems or questions.

Employees or groups should be designated to regularly listen to IVR recordings used in company operations. Their job is only to find flaws and loopholes in the information provided by the IVR script. 

IVR optimization can be improved if the team regularly updates by removing components when new products are released or discontinued. 

In addition, records should be kept of the options most searched for by customers and at what time they interacted. 

Greetings IVR should be updated according to the ongoing festival, new offers or special campaigns.

Automatic service

Customers avoid the ten-minute elevator pitch experience waiting for the next live show. 

Most callers can focus on their problems or questions after a short automatic visit, for example to check the status of the order or account balance.

IVR by King Asterisk offers a "self-service" setup, where even though the computer guides the customer in the right direction, the user feels that he or she is at least partially contributing to solving the problem. 

Improve brand-customer relationships as a result of these personal experiences.

Fast access and service

Client speech software is more complex than ever. IVR systems combined with 'direct speech' and push-to-boot buttons can get customers to where they need to call faster.

Take some time to map out the most meaningful IVR menu options. For example, if you need to talk to someone about some customer account, your IVR menu should have an option to connect to the billing department. 

Remember that your contact center software solution makes it easy to change the IVR menu.

Integrate business applications into the IVR menu

One way to improve an IVR system for a better customer service experience is to integrate business applications into the IVR menu. 

Integrating business applications allows customers to complete tasks through the IVR system.

Let's illustrate with an example. Tim wants to pay his water bill over the phone. The water company uses an IVR system that is integrated into the billing system. All Tim has to do is select a specific extension and the menu automatically guides him through the process of paying his water bill.

If the account system does not connect to the IVR menu, the Team must wait to connect to the contact center agent. This is a waste of your team's time and the most valuable (and most expensive!) resource. 

Adding business applications to the IVR menu gives customers the self-service options they need to complete critical tasks. It also improves the customer experience of the contact center.

"If you need something like that, press 1 or say. Otherwise, press 0 or say, "We'll take you back to the main menu to start over." Carefully designed menu trees keep customers away from mazes and labyrinths of the dreaded sub-menus and sub-options.

Extensive speech recognition

IVR is more than just a buzzword. The caller can specify which service or problem they are calling for or request additional information to quickly find a solution.

Speech-based Interactive Voice Response powered by Artificial Intelligence (AI) is gaining popularity as it can provide a better experience. However, some inputs such as customer ID or Zip Code can be entered using the DTMF keypad. 

So it's like a voice bot and the customer doesn't have to wait to hear all the menu items, but can tell the call center the destination of the call.

Interactive voice response can suggest available options or call an agent directly. This will ensure that customers can resolve their issues faster or independently. 

AI-driven IVR systems can be trained to intelligently and independently respond to questions that are generated.

Personal caller information

A well-designed IVR can often provide the same level of service as a trained call center agent. Quality assurance is about personal service. Customer data entry IVR systems turn every incoming call into a quality customer experience.

With the growth of the Internet, businesses need to be available on different platforms and channels. This helps the company become more visible. But it also gives customers peace of mind knowing that there are multiple ways to contact the firm for support and other purposes. 

The key to achieving higher CX is maintaining brand messaging and motivation across all platforms, including IVR. IVR optimization helps here as businesses can use it to promote specific products or publicize specific commitments in company policies. 

Options should be consistent and use the same language or phrases across all channels.

Conclusion:

That's why IVR is a key asset for customer support. Improving the experience you offer through IVR can make a significant difference in your brand image. Customers often do not call support because most companies do not pay attention to the IVR flow and do not increase the time.

King Asterisk's secure contact center solution features a flexible IVR menu that organizations can customize to meet their needs. You can improve your contact center's customer experience by giving customers self-service options as well as the ability to interact with humans.

[sevanablog]

Call quality is relatively easy to test when one has reference audio to compare with. But did you know you can validate IVR prompt quality even if there is no reference to compare with? Hard to believe, right? Sevana PVQA can calculate a quality score with waveform analysis of a single audio file! To learn more, please click on the link below.

#soundquality #audio #audiosystem #voip #telecom #technology #telecommunications #network #voipbusiness #voipservices #cloud #voipsolutions #voipphone #cloudcommunications

[claudehenrion]

Ces gros complots qui ne seraient pas ‘’complotistes’’...

  Tout le monde connaît l'existence de complots réels, affichés, affirmés, étalés sur la place publique à en être ''officiels''... Ces complots, pour une raison que la raison n'arrive pas à connaître, ne sont pas visés par la détestation des gens au pouvoir pour tout ce qui n'est pas ''dans leur couleur du temps''... Même sans penser à mal, on est bien forcé de se demander ce qui se cache derrière la chasse aux sorcières complotistes, limitée aux seules idées qui dérangent le catéchisme présidentiel.

  Le plus connu de ces ''complots autorisés'' est relatif à tout ce qui touche à l'islam, ‘‘ -isme’’ ou pas. Pour faire court, rappelons ce dont il ne sert à rien de refuser l'existence, mais dont il est défendu de parler, même masqué, ''distanciationné'' et ''gestesbarrièrisé'' : il existe un vaste plan --en fait plusieurs plans et encore plus de programmes d'action-- qui prévoit ou prévoient de remplacer notre civilisation judéo-chrétienne par les horreurs de la ''Charia'a'', du burkini et des barbes hirsutes, le but clair des tenants de cette idée atroce à terme (voir ce qui se passe à Kaboul, à chaque retrait partiel des GI's) étant l’abolition de tout souvenir des jours heureux.  

  Mais il existe un second ''complot''... dont les conséquences seraient terribles, aussi, s'il se réalisait, même un tout petit peu.  Nous l'avons évoqué, déjà, mais la ''présidentielle'' qui se rapproche le rend incontournable. Répétons que jamais la hargne présidentielle et ministérielle, si prompte à se déchaîner devant qui pose la moindre question sur les vaccins qu'on nous inocule en masse (après une période de tests inférieure à celle qu'ils reprochaient à Didier Raoult...) ne s'est appliquée contre ce tissu de dystopies ''XXL''. (NB - Contrairement au faux ‘’complotisme'’ inventé, qui rend fous nos irresponsables. Mais ''ce n'est pas le sujet'' aujourd’hui).

  Le personnage dont il faut parler (et se méfier, désormais) est une fort jolie jeune femme, Audrey Tcherkoff, qui avance dans la vie avec ''un destin (?) bordé de nouilles'', à en croire Attali, ce prétentieux pathologique qui se vante d'avoir fait élire Emmanuel Macron à la Présidence et d'avoir annoncé l'actuelle pandémie... alors qu’il répète Vous allez voir... un jour, il va se passer quelque chose de très imprévu. Voilà donc une charmante personne --un peu glaçante tout de même-- qui vient de commettre (pas seule) un bouquin que vous pouvez lire si vous êtes un ‘’fan’’ du sulfureux Léopold von Sacher-Masoch, l’un des pères (?) du sado-masochisme.

'  'Vous allez voir, c'est elle ''le ou la'' futur Président de la République'', psalmodient en chœur les ''faiseurs de rois '' (qui en ont tout de même fait un, que personne n’avait prévu. Pas un triomphe !). Celui-là, on pourrait le garder, car ''il fait le job'', et la France disparaît peu à peu : plus de culture (sic !), une langue défigurée, plus de sens commun, plus d'argent, plus de religion (sauf, un peu, l'islam), plus d'orgueil, une Histoire ratatinée à la repentance, une géographie tachetée de ''zones de non droit'' où règne la charia'a, plus d'industrie, plus de recherche, des éoliennes géantes partout... la liste de nos abandons est interminable --et surtout minable, hélas. Mais au cas où il pourrait perdre les prochaines élections... la relève est prête et sortira tout d'un coup du chapeau, née toute armée et ''prête-à-l'emploi'' comme Athéna-Nikè, nette, précise, sérieuse, pas désagréable, acérée, coupante, récitant par cœur son credo mondialoïde et très convaincue de ce qu'elle va faire...

  Ce ''Manuel pour une sortie positive de la crise'' est un énorme piège à gogos qui sortirait à point pour con-crétiser la dernière ''attaliaderie'' : ''Je connais la prochaine présidente de la République''. Lecture faite, il ne reste plus qu'à souhaiter que, comme les autres fois, cette énormité de ce clown d'Etat fasse long feu. Cependant, la méfiance est de mise : personne n'a oublié que, pour des gens décidés à ne reculer devant rien (sans doute une anticipation du ''quoi qu'il en coûte'' qui nous coûte déjà et va nous coûter tant de malheurs à venir), il est possible de faire ''élire par le peuple'' qui les sur-puissants du monde ont envie de voir élu.. . et je ne souhaite pas à mon pays si aimé que cette jolie héroïne (mot si prometteur et si menaçant) applique une seule des folies contenues dans ce brûlot.

  Ce ''programme de mandature'' (car ces complotistes-là avancent à découvert, en terrain déjà conquis) propose comme solution unique à tous nos malheurs un catalogue à l'allure faussement humaniste, à appliquer sans changer un seul ''item'', construit (?) sur un échantillon mondial de... 6000 péquins sélectionnés on ne sait comment (NB : sur 7 milliards et demi d'humains, c'est, au maximum... ''exactement même pas rien'', si j'ose), dont 96 %  auraient dit ''souhaiter un changement positif'' (ça, c'est précis !).  Ce ''Manuel'' qui se croit manuel de survie et de sauvetage de l'humanité, montre le néant technocratico-dystopique qui habite ses sponsors ivres de leur toute-puissante nullité. Ce dangereux brûlot est un ''Manuel pour le pire des mondes'' dont on nous dit qu'il faut l’appliquer dès la fin de cette pandémie (qui peut être arrêtée à tout instant, un jeu de bobard en remplaçant un autre, puisqu'elle n'est pas le truc terrible dont on nous remplit les oreilles, le cerveau... et surtout le trouillomètre : ce n'est ni une peste ni un choléra, ni même une grippe espagnole).

  Partant du faux calcul que ''96 % des citoyens (sur 7,5 milliards, nous l'avons dit, ça veut dire : personne !) veulent du ou des changements ''(ce qui n'est pas faux : les gens veulent que tous les gens comme elle et ses ‘’mandants-sponsors-parrains'' disparaissent à jamais !), notre ''future présidente'' (?) voit  une aspiration aux idées que ses maîtres aimeraient voir triompher... puisqu'elles vont dans ''leur bon sens à eux'', le sens d'une histoire réécrite pour faire d'eux seuls ''les rois du monde'', au détriment de tous les autres, vivants... ou à venir. Sous couvert de nouveauté, elle nous ressert les vieilles salades d'un gouvernement mondial seul garant de l'égalité de tous les hommes, d'un ''nouvel ordre mondial'' qui ne serait que l'enfer, du pandémonium d'une clique libre de se servir de la planète et ses habitants, de la pure folie idéologique, politique, humaine, culturelle ... et autres...

  Un ''monde  nouveau'' où les peuples seraient soumis à une super-ploutocratie oligarchique se prépare donc, en douce, dans les officines secrètes et les coulisses mondialistes... On comprend qu'elle soit ''pour'', si on lui a promis une bonne place ! En fait ce bouquin pourrait être sous-titré : ''Comment tromper son monde avec un discours dégoulinant de faux bons sentiments, avec un vocabulaire qui suinte de progressisme régressif, qui flatte les aspirations des citoyens pour un monde... qui ne sera meilleur que pour une poignée de non-élus et effroyable pour les peuples''.

  Sûrs de leur coup, ils ne cachent même pas leur militantisme actif pour ce monde inhumain. C'est Alice au pays des horreurs : "Un haut conseil de la résilience, avec des experts de chaque pays" (NB: quand on voit les échecs du lamentable conseil scientifique de Macron, on imagine un conseil d'experts de différents pays avec des conflits d’intérêt politiques, raciaux, financiers, culturels, et civilisationnels en plus des querelles d'ego). On imagine la suite : un Conseil ‘’one planet, one health’’  présidé par Bill Gates, un Conseil mondial du climat supervisé par Greta Thunberg, le FMI présidé par George Soros, BezosZukerbergMurdoch à la tête d'un  comité régulateur mondial des médias... et une gouvernance unique avec Klauss Schawb (de Davos) soutenu par 20 000 000 de fonctionnaires (ou le double !) qui, bien sûr (puisqu'on vous le dit !) ne prendraient que les meilleures décisions possibles... On en revient à notre refrain mille et une fois répété : ''La folie est sortie des asiles !’’.

  Le dangereux Jacques Attali (ce ''pro'' de l'annonce de trucs qui n'arrivent jamais --et c'est heureux, car ils tous sont à l'opposé de tout ce qui est bon pour l'Homme), blatérait en 2009 que ''L'histoire nous apprend que l'humanité n'avance vraiment que lorsqu'elle a vraiment peur'' (ce qui est faux, comme le prouvent le Cinque Cento, la Renaissance ou les 30 glorieuses !). Nos technocrates mondialistes nous foutraient-ils le trouillomètre à zéro avec leur satané covid seulement pour préparer la phase suivante de leur main-mise sur l"humanité ? Complotisme, avez-vous dit ?

H-Cl.

[luma-az]

L’option Boîte de Claquemurge

Une fanfiction en hommage au Disque-Monde, du plus grand de tous, Terry Pratchett !

Feat Rincevent, le bibliothécaire, le bagage, et un étudiant

« Bonjour Monsieur ! Heu… Monsieur ?

L’homme grand et maigre sursauta en réalisant qu’on s’adressait bien à lui. Rincevent était de l’avis général, même si ce n’était pas particulièrement le sien, le plus mauvais mage de toute l’Université de l’Invisible. Il travaillait au service du bibliothécaire et on considérait qu’il avait à peu près autant d’utilité qu’un meuble[1], c’est pourquoi la plupart des gens ne se donnaient pas la peine de lui adresser la parole.

Son interlocuteur avait de plus un air respectueux voir même vaguement inquiet que Rincevent n’avait guère l’habitude voir en face de lui. Par réflexe il jeta un coup d’œil par-dessus son épaule pour voir si un mage important ne s’était pas glissé en douce entre lui et la série des Classicus qu’il était en train de ranger. Mais ce n’était pas le cas.

Celui qui l’avait interpellé lui disait quelque chose. Un dos un peu voûté, des cernes, des cheveux en bataille, une odeur rappelant qu’il était loin de la maison de sa maman et devait choisir ses sous-vêtements tout seul, plus de boutons d’acné que de barbe… Soudain la lumière se fit : un étudiant ! Évidemment, à force de vivre dans une université, on finissait forcément par en croiser un un jour ou l’autre[2]. Quoique plus souvent en train de faire le mur pour aller vider quelques chopes au Tambour crevé que dans la bibliothèque où ils risquaient toujours de se faire lire un bouquin plus costaud qu’eux.

L’étudiant continua : « Vous êtes bien le mage Rincevent ? J’aurais un service à vous demander, Monsieur.

Cette modeste phrase déclencha les pires craintes de Rincevent. D’un geste de la main il arrêta l’étudiant et lui demanda :

— Il ne s’agit pas de sauver le monde, n’est-ce pas ?

— Pardon ?

— Et pas un pays non plus ? Ni une demoiselle en détresse ? Non, de toute façon il n’y a pas la moindre chance pour que je rencontre un jour une demoiselle, ou alors une de quatre-vingt treize ans peut-être. Il est hors de question que j’accepte la moindre quête, tu comprends.

— Mais… heu… non, Monsieur, rien de ce genre. J’aurais juste besoin de renseignements pour un devoir.

— Et tu comptes froisser le tissu de la réalité pour voir si tu arrives à le repasser ensuite ? Interviewer le Créateur et lui demander pourquoi il a oublié la mayonnaise ? Un truc dans ce genre-là ?

— Non Monsieur. On m’a dit que vous aviez un coffre en poirier savant et je voulais rédiger mon devoir dessus. Si ça ne vous dérange pas. »

Immédiatement Rincevent se sentit soulagé. Une longue existence (allez savoir pourquoi, les moments horribles lui paraissaient toujours plus longs) passée à affronter les Choses de la Basse-Fosse, voyager entre les univers, renverser des gouvernements, défier les dieux et les héros, et d’une façon générale à éviter de se faire tuer de centaines de manières variées et souvent exotiques lui avait donné un instinct de survie surdéveloppé. Il était l’as des as de la fuite, et même si chaque fois qu’il avait sauvé sa peau c’était pour se jeter dans la gueule d’un loup tout juste un peu plus gros, la Mort lui[3]-même disait de Rincevent : « Ah oui, celui-là… ». Son système d’alarme personnel s’était donc déclenché immédiatement en entendant l’autre l’appeler Monsieur avec une majuscule et par-dessus le marché être poli. Car on ne sait jamais à quoi s’en tenir avec les gens polis qui vous demandent un service. Au moins, un coup de pied annonce franchement la couleur, et il y a peu de chance pour que celui qui vous le donne ait ensuite l’intention de vous faire autre chose que de vous donner un autre coup de pied (voir un crachat si c’est le videur d’une taverne dans laquelle vous êtes ivre mort et dépouillé de tous vos biens). Tandis qu’un service, c’est à tous les coups vous envoyer au-devant d’une mort atroce pour une noble cause. Rincevent n’avait rien contre les nobles causes. Il estimait simplement que sa vie était à elle seule une cause encore plus intéressante, et surtout savait qu’il était le seul à vouloir la défendre.

Mais si ce gamin voulait étudier le Bagage, Rincevent lui-même ne risquait rien. Enfin normalement.

— D’accord. On va demander une dispense au bibliothécaire et je te montre mon Bagage.

— Une dispense ?

— Une dispense de responsabilité. Au cas où il t’arrive quelque chose. Il hiberne toujours en hiver et il est un peu bougon au réveil.

L’étudiant pâlit légèrement mais resta parfaitement silencieux et déterminé en signant la dernière feuille d’un véritable cahier contenant la liste non exhaustive des malheurs pouvant affliger les pauvres étudiants et donc l’Université n’était évidemment pas responsable. Le bibliothécaire tenta bien de lui adresser une mise en garde, en vain.

— Ne râle pas, lui dit Rincevent, le petit sait ce qu’il fait.

— Ook.

— Et puis il faut qu’un responsable signe. Vas-y toi, je n’ai pas le niveau.

— Ook ook ook.

— Je sais. Mais bon. C’est un étudiant quand même.

Le bibliothécaire soupira. Depuis qu’un accident de magie l’avait transformé en orang-outan, il avait tendance à jeter sur l’humanité un regard plus philosophe[4] et observait souvent cette tendance à vouloir mettre les doigts dans la prise de l’univers pour avoir une coiffure plus intéressante. D’un autre côté, lui-même n’aimait guère les étudiants, surtout les nouveaux, qui trouvaient toujours moyen de se perdre dans les rayonnages infinis, se faire attaquer par des ouvrages colériques, voir même croire qu’ils avaient le droit d’user les livres en les lisant. Il saisit la plume par le pied et signa. Rincevent lui éplucha une banane, la partie préférée et essentielle de son travail à vrai dire. Puis il emmena le petit dans sa chambre pour qu’il rencontre son Bagage. Le bibliothécaire les suivit d’un regard lourd de sens.

Sur le chemin, l’étudiant posa la question qui le chiffonnait depuis quelques minutes :

— Vous pensez vraiment qu’il y a un Créateur, qui aurait fabriqué l’univers, les étoiles, la grande A’Tuin et le monde ?

— Ben oui.

— Je veux dire… Ce n’est pas très… mage, comme façon de voir.

— Petit, quand tu auras progressé, tu sauras que dans la vie il y a les façons de voir, qui sont logiques, et la réalité, qui ne l’est pas.

— Mais… pourquoi le Créateur aurait oublié la mayonnaise ?

— Chais pas. Peut-être qu’il aime son sandwich comme ça.

— Un sandwich ?

— Œuf-cresson. Il n’était pas très bon. »

L’étudiant se tut le reste du chemin. On lui avait parlé de Rincevent (en général les expressions qui revenaient étaient "crétin", "nul", "même pas capable d’écrire le mot mage correctement", "la honte de l’Université" et "les ennuis ne sont jamais loin derrière lui"), mais personne ne s’était donné la peine de le prévenir qu’il était fou à lier. En même temps, ce genre de choses se remarque rarement à l’Université de l’Invisible. Passer une centaine d’années à passer la réalité dans le tamis de l’étude pour voir ce qu’il reste et à survivre à ses collègues en mal de promotion a tendance à porter sur la cervelle de n’importe qui.

Ils entrèrent dans la chambre minuscule et sentant les chaussettes du mage. Rincevent frappa légèrement à la porte de son armoire, puis l’ouvrit. Elle était encombrée de vêtements appartenant aux locataires précédents de la chambre. Tout en haut, ronflant dans un léger bruit de scie, dormait le Bagage.

Rincevent lui dit :

« Allez, descends. »

Pendant quelques secondes, rien ne se passa. Puis des centaines de minuscules pieds poussèrent sous la malle en bois et le Bagage tomba lourdement sur le sol, écrasant au passage les orteils de l’étudiant avec un plaisir plus qu’évident. Le Bagage n’avait pas visage ni quoi que ce soit d’autre qui aurait pu lui servir à s’exprimer, mais on arrivait toujours à savoir ce qu’il ressentait.

« Bagage, ce type veut voir comment tu fonctionnes. Alors soit sage. Fais bien tout ce qu’il te dit, d’accord ? Comme si c’était ton propriétaire.

Le Bagage claqua légèrement du couvercle. Il paraissait étonnamment de bonne humeur pour un réveil, et Rincevent se dit qu’il ferait mieux de partir et de ne pas s’en mêler. Après tout, le petit avait signé. Et le fait que le Bagage ne fasse jamais vraiment exactement tout ce que même son propriétaire lui disait ne voulait pas dire qu’il allait obligatoirement… faire une bêtise.

— Soyez sages tous les deux ! » jeta Rincevent avant de quitter la pièce et de retourner à la bibliothèque. Il se demandait ce qu’on pouvait bien trouver à étudier sur le Bagage. Il était en poirier savant, il suivait son propriétaire partout dans l’espace et le temps en piétinant assez sadiquement ce qui se dressait entre le propriétaire en question et lui, et quand on mettait ses affaires dedans on les ressortait impeccablement lavées et repassées. D’ailleurs, on pouvait mettre un nombre assez impressionnant de choses dans le Bagage et ne retrouver ensuite que des sous-vêtements impeccablement lavés et repassés. Impossible de savoir où était passé le reste : même interrogé, le Bagage faisait l’innocent, voir carrément la sourde oreille. Rincevent espérait que tout aller bien se passer.

« Ook ? proposa aimablement le bibliothécaire en lui tendant une banane.

— Oui, merci. »

 Rolando Pedzouille attendit quelques secondes que Rincevent se soit éloigné avant de sortir un livre ô combien précieux. Rolando était un étudiant d’un genre particulier : il travaillait d’arrache-pied, mais seulement sur les sujets qui n’avaient rien à voir avec ses cours et ses diplômes. Il était donc lamentablement recalé d’année en année, tout en étant incollable sur des thèmes aussi passionnant le cycle de vie du papillon météo quantique, le nombre d’anges capables de danser sur une tête d’épingle et le rôle du hasard dans tout bon sortilège qui se respecte (d’après ses calculs, il y avait une chance sur 70 356 109 222 pour que le sort qui transforme la pluie en vinaigre fasse exploser tout l’univers lors de son utilisation). Depuis quelque temps, il s’intéressait au mythique continent Contrepoids et à ses merveilles, dont les coffres en poirier savant. Jamais il n’aurait cru qu’il aurait la chance d’en voir un de ses propres yeux avant qu’on ne lui parle de Rincevent et de la nature exacte des ennuis qu’il traînait en permanence derrière lui. Maintenant il feuilletait le livre écrit en idéogrammes pour vérifier quel modèle il avait en face de lui. Si par miracle le Bagage de Rincevent possédait l’option qu’il avait approximativement traduite par "ciel infini mêlé de vent et de purin[5]", et qui correspondait d’après ses recherches à la Boîte de Claquemurge[6]…

Rolando mesura rapidement le Bagage, nota la forme de ses ferronneries et celle de ses pieds, le grain du bois, le nombre et l’emplacement de chaque nœud. Il l’ouvrit. Le Bagage était parfaitement vide et avait vu de l’intérieur l’apparence tout à fait normale d’une simple malle en bois. Il le referma. Puis actionna un minuscule réglage caché dans un clou du couvercle. Il ouvrit une nouvelle fois le couvercle, qui poussa un long grincement proche du gémissement. Et cette fois à l’intérieur Rolando trouva le monde entier.

Après une petite danse de joie, l’étudiant se pencha par-dessus le rebord du Bagage et observa, loin en dessous de lui, la minuscule Université de l’Invisible dans laquelle, il le savait, se trouvait un minuscule Rolando penché sur un minuscule Bagage et un monde encore microscopique contenant un Rolando microscopique, et cela à l’infini. La Boîte de Claquemurge était un sortilège rigoureusement interdit et le seul exemplaire connu était sous bonne garde dans la bibliothèque, mais les professeurs en avaient tout de même parlé aux étudiants parce que c’était le genre de paradoxes à se sortir la cervelle par les oreilles et se la nouer sous le menton dont ils raffolaient. Rolando avait eu zéro et avait été le seul élève à comprendre les merveilleuses possibilités de la Boîte. Car maintenant qu’il se trouvait devant le Disque-Monde, il était un dieu. Même pas besoin d’aller sur le Cori Celesti pour écraser d’un seul doigt les dieux déjà existants. Il n’avait plus ensuite qu’à laisser la foi s’amasser autour de son Doigt magique et surpuissant pour avoir les plus fabuleux pouvoirs dont il avait jamais rêvé… Bien sûr pas question de rendre un jour le Bagage à cet idiot de Rincevent.

Mais tout d’abord…

Un sourire cruel sur le visage, Rolando avança la main dans le Bagage vers l’Université de l’Invisible. Il entendait les gens piailler en dessous et leurs hurlements, beaucoup plus forts, au-dehors, tandis qu’une main géante se rapprochait lentement d’eux. Les nuages lui mouillaient la manche et il pensa qu’avec un bon réglage, il n’aurait aucun mal à attraper le soleil comme une balle brûlante et à l’envoyer faire un petit plongeon dans la mer. Mais il gardait ce tour-là pour si ses fidèles se montraient réticents. Pour le moment, il cherchait le professeur en lecture embrouillée et aléatoire qui lui avait mis une si mauvaise note à son devoir sur les écrits impossibles.

 « Ook, affirma le bibliothécaire.

— Nan, quand même pas, répondit Rincevent.

Mais le bibliothécaire connaissait parfaitement le contenu de chacun de ses livres et qui les avait empruntés. Il rappela au passage à Rincevent que c’est lui qui avait laissé Rolando avec le Bagage.

— Mais comment je pouvais savoir qu’on peut ouvrir une Boîte de Claquemurge avec ! se défendit Rincevent.

— Ook.

— Oui, bon, c’est facile pour toi de dire ça. »

Un silence. Puis :

— Ook ook ooook.

Un autre silence. Puis :

— Pourquoi moi ?

Le bibliothécaire se tourna vers Rincevent.

— Ook.

Rincevent soupira.

— Ah bon. »

 Dans l’odorante cité d’Ankh-Morpok, les badauds s’étaient rassemblés pour voir une immense main s’abattre sur l’Université de l’Invisible. Les trois quarts d’entre eux, en tous cas. Le dernier quart était venu pour profiter de la présence des trois premiers et leur vendre des saucisses[7]. Ils devaient bien admettre, tous, que c’était un spectacle qui valait le coup d’œil. Dans l’ensemble, la foule encourageait les mages qui jetaient des sortilèges dans tous les sens avant de s’enfuir aussi vite que leur embonpoint généreux le leur permettait, mais tout le monde riait de leurs gesticulations quand les sorts échouaient et que la main essayait de les écraser comme des fourmis. Le commerce de saucisses marchait très fort.

Évidemment, si les badauds avaient su que Rolando considérait Ankh-Morpok comme un crachat à la face du Disque-Monde[8] et qu’il comptait bien arracher la ville, la jeter quelque par et planter quelque chose de plus joli à la place[9], ils auraient protestés vigoureusement. Pour le moment, ils considéraient l’affaire comme relevant strictement du domaine des mages, et les paris allaient bon train.

Rincevent atteignit la chambre. Il allait devoir arrêter un dingue qui menaçait le monde entier, une fois de plus, preuve que son instinct de survie avait une fois de plus sonné l’alerte judicieusement (et une fois de plus parfaitement en vain). Sauf que…

Dans la petite pièce ne restait plus que le Bagage, qui affichait un air extrêmement satisfait, et une chaussure. Rincevent supposa qu’elle appartenait à l’étudiant. À tout hasard, il rouvrit le Bagage, qui ne contenait que des sous-vêtements parfaitement lavés et repassés.

« Bah, conclut le mage, je suppose que d’une certaine manière c’est mieux comme ça »

Il tenta par la suite d’oublier qu’en partant, il avait vu du coin de l’œil une longue langue rouge acajou sortir du Bagage pour lécher une série de dents en hêtre clair… Le Bagage était un accessoire de voyage pourvu de nombreuses options et mieux valait ne pas toutes les connaître.

[1] Mais était nettement plus facile à épousseter.

[2] Sauf dans la salle 3B où avaient lieu tous les cours de l’université, choisie par les professeurs mages pour l’excellente raison que personne ne l’avait jamais trouvée.

[3] La mort du Disque-Monde est bel et bien de sexe masculin. Quoique personne ne soit jamais allé vérifier. Disons qu’on le croit sur parole.

[4] Et sur les bananes un regard plus intéressé.

[5] Quoique ce dernier idéogramme peut aussi se lire "soleil".

[6] Ainsi nommée d’après le nom de son inventeur, client mythique du Tambour Crevé.

[7] Ou, dans le cas de Planteur Je-me-tranche-la-Gorge, quelque chose de marron enfoncé dans quelque chose de blanc et noyé dans la moutarde.

[8] Les habitants d’Ankh-Morpok eux-mêmes estimaient que leur ville avait à peu près autant de valeur que les résidus inidentifiables qui restent collés au fond du caniveau même après une grosse pluie. Mais que ce n’était pas une raison pour en dire du mal.

[9] Absolument n’importe quoi ferait l’affaire, mais une statue à sa gloire correspondait plus aux goûts de Rolando.

[gravitas-ai]

Chatbots are revolutionizing the banking sector

A chatbot is an artificial intelligence software, which can perform a conversation with a customer, in a natural language just like another person through applications, websites, Android apps, messaging or even through a mobile phone. The human speech is converted into a short text by a bot using its computer ability, and it is given to a chat robot. It is just a computer program that can simulate human conversations. Numerous applications utilize chatbots to enhance the performance of the system. Various areas where chatbots are used are banking sector, E-commerce websites, food sites, weather forecasting, personal finance assistance, etc.

Chatbots in the banking industry

The banking industry is one of the earliest adopters of chatbots in its operations. A study from Juniper Research predicts that the success rate of chatbot interactions in the banking industry will reach 90% by 2022. These bots are sophisticated computer programs specially designed to interact with customers similarly as humans, to improve the performance of the system, by saving a lot of human effort and time.

Chatbots are equipped with artificial intelligence and machine learning and have come a long way since ELIZA, which was the first chatbot in 1966. Now, chatbots have become a crucial part of the banking industry, by helping banks optimize their services. These ‘artificial humans’ are revolutionizing the banking sector, in the best way ever discovered.

Intensifying the satisfaction of customers

Chatbots are helping banks to intensify and enhance customer satisfaction. They provide answers to the customers’ queries about their bank-related activities within seconds. Now, most of the customers want instant replies to their queries and their queries are put in a queue in case of a greater number of calls by an IVR (Interactive Voice Response) system. Customers, pressed for time, may find this undesirable. In these kinds of situations, chatbots play a crucial role, by providing solutions to the customers in real-time.

Chatbots can easily answer the common queries related to account balance, balance transfer, utility payments, ATM locator, etc., within a very little amount of time, which customers will probably expect. With predictive analytics, the chatbots pick up the customer’s calls and answers automatically, without any human intervention. This feature of chatbots will reduce human effort and makes life easier in any sector where chatbots are implemented.

Also, some banks have developed the chatbots which can help the customers in blocking their debit cards instantly when someone has stolen their card or they lost it. They will ask the customers about the information about their card. Then chatbot can validate the details and sends an OTP to the registered phone number, to block one’s card. Once fed, the card gets blocked within no time. Chatbots provide continuous and uninterrupted 24x7 services, which creates a meaningful relationship between customers and chatbots.

Chatbots help in suggesting solutions and products

Chatbots are becoming more action-oriented because of sophistication. Apart from answering common queries of customers, which are related to banking operations, now they went a step further and suggesting customized solutions and products to the customers. For example, if a customer is asking queries about home loan or loan against any property, then chatbot will list out all such products which are offered by the bank.

Moreover, they also help the customers to calculate their loan eligibility and the loan amount based on the inputs given by the customers. This kind of implementation in the banking sector will go a long way in enhancing the revenues for banks in the long run.

The improved focus of banks on areas which need human intervention 

As the chatbots are capable of dealing with the common queries of the customers related to bank operations, bank representatives can comfortably focus on the areas which need human intervention. For example, helping customers to know the nuances of their offerings and how it can affect their overall financial health. Bank representatives can deal with these kinds of human interventions with chatbots helping them with all the common services, which can replace humans with bots.

Though they have been a disruptor for the industry, it is not possible to replace humans with the chatbots completely. As most of the customers after having general knowledge about the products would naturally want face-to-face interaction with the concerned representatives to know the finer aspects about the product, which a chatbot cannot provide to the customers. So, chatbots are helpful only up to a certain extent, but not beyond its limits.

For an instance, if it’s a loan after knowing the basic information about the eligibility and the amount of the loan, any customer would generally prefer a direct discussion with bank authorities related to the flexibility of rate of interest, tenure, processing and prepayment charges among others, which cannot be done by using the chatbots. Since chatbots cannot behave as a human 100%, they do have such limitations in any sectors. But they can perform all the basic conversation most effectively. So, good service of chatbots can be utilized up to the extent of their capabilities. Beyond these basic services, we need a real bank representative to perform face-to-face conversations related to next level details about any service or product.

Chatbots saving banks at hard times

Chatbots are capable of handling multiple queries at the same time. In a single month, the bots that are deployed by the bank can process millions of queries simultaneously without any interruptions. It would be very expensive and time-consuming to appoint some agents to handle such common queries. So, bots are helping banks to save up-front costs and the Juniper Research study suggests that banks could save over USD 8 billion by 2022, with the help of chatbots.

Hence, bots are capable to save a large number of expenses of a bank and also, they can save a lot of time, which can be utilized for further bank operations. This would enhance the performance of a bank system. Banks are deploying the chatbots on their websites and messengers on social media platforms such as Facebook, Instagram whereby their customers can type their queries and find the solutions to their queries.

Summary

Chatbots' capacity of processing multiple queries simultaneously make the banks to highly depend on them. This would reduce the time taken by humans for such operations.

Sumit Kumar, Co-Founder & CEO, Gravitas AI

www.gravitas.bot

[dialerking070]

What is a dialer service?

A dialer could be a sort of call center dialer software utilized to computerize the dialing of client phone numbers and to effectively record the result of these calls. Dialers can moreover be utilized to broadcast recorded messages through interactive voice response (IVR), thrust notices, and SMS.

Based on whether a client answers the outbound call, a dialer software can course the call to an operator, utilize voice bots for mechanized collection, play a message, or move on to the following number on the list of contacts.

Dialers bring specialist efficiency, call documentation, and client involvement to the table as they spare time, handle call information the way your commerce favors, and conjointly minimize cold exchanges.

Auto dialer

Auto dialer, as the title recommends, is a software dialing system that makes a difference in deals reps execute low-touch but high-volume campaigns, where they have to reach out to as numerous prospects as conceivable. With the sheer number of leads, auto dialer software places synchronous calls to prioritize prospects who choose up the call.

Manual dialing makes sense as it were once you have a restricted number of showcasing or deals qualified leads, with sufficient foundation data approximately them for a personalized approach. But auto dialing is the correct way to go when deals reps need to cold call potential leads on impact campaigns.

Power  dialer

Power dialers are moreover called outbound dialers since they are generally utilized by outbound deals groups, who have a tall number of contacts to pitch to. A Power dialer consecutively moves to another caller once the past call is total, unanswered, or active.

Preview  dialer

Preview dialers offer assistance call center dialer specialists survey client data through a window when they start or get a phone call. Preview dialers include critical esteem to client benefit groups as the Preview can too offer omnichannel data required to bolster the clients with the full setting.

Predictive  dialer

Predictive dialing could be a dialing mode made for businesses that handle a tall contact volume, both inbound and outbound. Predictive dialers get ready a calculation based on call center dialer information patterns such as crest calling times, operator accessibility and workload, and call-taking care times to robotize the dialing intellectuals.

Progressive  dialer

The progressive dialer is comparable to a Predictive dialer with the exemption that it dials as it there were one contact per operator at a time. A progressive dialer moves on to another call as it were when the last call is total. Progressive dialers are perfect for B2B outbound calling where drop-offs and call surrender are less.

What does a dialer look like?

Early dialers were pieces of equipment, but these days they're more often than not software-based. Separated from that, the definition of a dialer is very liquid. There are two distinctive categories of the dialer, each of which centers on different regions of execution.

A dialer can offer assistance to a Business and make more phone calls within the same sum of time as one individual typically does, sparing time and cash. It moreover permits them to discover prospects that might not have been accessible sometime recently due to the need for a landline or the toll of cell phone minutes.

In arranging for the dialer to work it must begin to be introduced on the desktop for the dialer to work. After establishment, there's an enactment handle where it may inquire for individual data, such as name, address, and charging subtle elements sometime recently it'll permit you to get to its highlights.

Conclusion 

A dialer is an application that naturally dials and calls for a number, and after that conveys each call to a call center dialer specialist. Its work is to mechanize outbound calls. Automated dialing highlights on the contact center software move forward proficiency by interfacing operators straightforwardly with clients when they are free. This implies that specialists do not squander time physically contributing phone numbers and can instead spend more time talking to clients. VICIdial is free of cost installation  and a friendly budget

[coolcipher91stuff-blog]

The Best Email and SMS Marketing Company

The best email and SMS Company has marketing a priority for your business in 2020? Are you looking for the best email and SMS marketing software?

Choosing the right email and SMS marketing service can have a significant impact on the success of your marketing campaign.

Why Choosing the Best Email & SMS Marketing Service is Important?

Email and SMS marketing is one of the most cost-effective marketing tools for small businesses. According to the Direct Marketing Association, email & SMS marketing on average sees a 4500 percent return on investment for businesses in India. This is because email and SMS marketing is easy to manage, gives you full control, and allows you to establish a direct contact with your customers.

 Ø Cheapest Bulk SMS Provider in India

The method of Bulk Email service provider and Bulk SMS service provider has reliably been to give standard stages to allow any client to quickly pass on any SMS administration. Our bulk email sending services game plans are away to deliver enduring prompts our clients from arranged establishment. We set up together a movement of elevating philosophies to achieve best outcomes for our respect customers.

The Voice SMS Services provider brings business and hence is being used as an effective marketing tool these days. If the message is conveyed in local language, it attracts more visitors. And voice telephony services are therefore the right choice for your all business needs. Our Voice SMS Services provider is designed to make communication personalized and effective.

Outbound dialer solutions provide you the numbers to which you can call and get your messages recorded in your own voice. You can also upload a clip or text which will be automatically converted to speech. These messages can be immediately transferred to the groups or individuals in the form of automated phone calls .The outbound dialer software is the best to deploy for asking feedback or opinion from the users while using our web interface.

Promotional SMS service provider is those SMS which are planned to advance organization/item/administrations to individuals, chiefly utilized for advertising purpose. The Promotional bulk SMS service is as a rule proposed to pass on fundamental data to each one of the individuals who are a piece of the exchange or known individuals/gathering. Promotional SMS service provider Send offers or promotional news to your existing or new customers. Send promotional bulk SMS service between 9AM to 9PM without any interruption to non-DND numbers.

 How to apply for transactional SMS route?

Transactional SMS service provider is used for sending necessary information to the customers regarding a product or service. Examples are e-commerce sites, sending messages of order invoice number, delivery status, receipt of transaction etc to its customers. Transactional SMS reseller basically the transactional route is used by companies and organizations who want to send non promotional SMS to both DND and non DND numbers 24*7. You can send the message without approval.

Ø Features of Transactional SMS

1. In the transactional route you are eligible to send SMS without approval.

2. In this route messages can be sent to both DND and non DND numbers.

3. You can send SMS 24*7, without any time restraints.

4. The SMS gets delivered instantly without any hassle.

5. SMS can be sent using your own Sender ID.

 International bulk SMS service provider is a leading Bulk SMS services provider across the globe. Our bulk SMS will help you increase your sales and maintain better customer satisfaction.

Using our Bulk SMS services is very simple and easy. Contact us today and start sending your SMS to your clients in no time.

Bulk SMS Worldwide, Targeted SMS to Worldwide and Free SMS to Worldwide,

Send Bulk SMS to Worldwide using our SMS services and get the real feedback you deserve.

International SMS service is an innovative end-to-end SMS provider of interactive digital marketing services, email marketing, and mobile SMS marketing campaigns.

International SMS service to Worldwide enables companies to communicate real-time with their customers anytime, anywhere by pushing information directly to the customer's mobile phones...

Ø Why International SMS Service?

·         Large SMS International Coverage

·         Fast SMS Delivery

·         24/7 SMS Support

·         No Setup Charge for any SMS account

·         No Minim SMS to Purchase

·         No Hidden Cost for any SMS package

·         No Port Fees for SMS

 The Bulk SMS API services with your website via Logon utility SMS API. Bulk SMS API is best way to send automated Bulk SMS directly from your platform. We are here to serve you with our ultra-fast and highly reliable

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Company are an award-winning and trusted conglomerate, which strives for perfection in delivering all results performance to our clients irrespective of their size. Our product range encompasses all tools of electronic marketing like Best Full Service in Bulk Email, Mass Email, Email Marketing, Mail Server, SMTP Provider, Email Server Hosting, Bulk SMTP Server, Dedicated SMTP Server, and you name it, we have one. We have an array of conceptualized programs with latest tracking software that matches the requirements of all customers with maximum compatibility.

 Your database of contacts is highly valuable, and you can leverage it to stay connected with your customers, nurture your leads and eventually grow your online audience. Email newsletter service are your best bet if you need to nurture leads, sell to your existing customers, and drive targeted traffic to your website. However, newsletter writing service headline that results in swelled open and click-through rates can be a bit of science and that’s why you need our awesome experienced copywriting team!

With our Email Acquisition Companies for email writing service, you can disseminate fresh and relevant content that will help you stay on top of the mind of your customers. Being there in the customers’ inbox will enhance your company’s image, and help position your business as an established thought leader in the industry.

Email acquisition campaigns & experienced writers can create emails and newsletters that give you a distinct competitive advantage, and effectively engage prospects in a way that you will have a constant pipeline of potential sales.

 Ø Let’s look at some retention techniques applied to retention email marketing.

1. Create and send useful content 2. Invite customers to webinars and courses 3. Send recap emails about the customer’s activity 4. Design a product newsletter 5. Take advantage of the potential of milestone emails 6. Engage inactive customers 7. Support retention: on boarding, new launches, cross-selling, and up selling

 Our advice is to develop a retention email marketing strategy, defining a set of campaigns and then checking their effectiveness. You can start today with email retention software by requesting a free MailUp trial: you’ll have the platform available for 30 days to create, send, and track your campaigns.

Outbound dialer solutions have been around for many years, and even today there are certain types of calling campaigns that use them effectively. Fundamentally, predictive dialer algorithms that calculate when the next agent will be available and places calls based on those calculations to maintain agent activities at the maximum extent. Outbound dialer software that maintains to a drop call % setting of 3% or less, which the domestic regulated percent is of dropped or undropped calls. The key to a great outbound system is really the ability to control and segment your lists and campaign settings to allow you to target individuals for certain calling times.  Although outbound predictive dialers have been around for a long time, they are not all created equal.

Missed Call service is one of the most effective methods of lead generation as it involves minimal efforts and virtually no costs on the part of the customer. Be it for generating leads or collecting customer feedback, integrating missed call services with marketing campaigns offers time-tested efficiency. Missed call solution also enables businesses to conduct polls and surveys for market research, leading to better ROI, and higher customer satisfaction. Moreover, it makes handling start-stop of services a breeze, both for the customers and the company. Web-based missed call services generate analytics data, record alerts, and works with other IVR services to send automated acknowledgment SMS to the callers.

Ø FEATURES OF MISSED CALL SERVICES

1.     Automated hassle-free mode 2.     Unlimited call reporting 3.     Zero cost to callers 4.     Fast and effective 5.     Works with landline 6.     API support

Ø ADVANTAGES OF MISSED CALL SERVICE

Easy to integrate with your own app or     website with complete API support from our team

Easy to assimilate with a range of toll     free and virtual mobile numbers from our services for an extensive     campaign

Automated call disconnection for easy use     of missed call service

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Detailed reports on missed calls received     to analyze call time, response time and duration, throughput performances     etc.

 Ø What is an IVR Solution?

An Interactive Voice Response System is your business automated attendant. When you place a call to a business, there is a voice that greets you politely with a welcome message and then helps you navigate to the solution - all without the help of a real agent. This is how interactive voice response service helps you enhance customer service and create a better experience for your leads with zero waiting time. Save costs by reducing churn and retaining your customers!

Customer care toll free numbers make businesses sound more professional. You can make a call to a toll free number, to reach businesses and/or individuals, without being charged for the call. Since the customer support is free, it creates goodwill and a loyal customer base. Here, Customer care executive number provides you with a useful tool called Toll Free Number Finder. It helps the people in India contact the customer care help desk of any company they need to get in touch with. This service provides you the complete list of toll free numbers in India of all businesses, along with their company website address.

Call center services can include any business that can be done by phone from telephone answering service to handling customer service calls, call answering service and supporting product recalls. Outsourcing these activities saves on staffing, office space, equipment and other overhead costs and frees you up to focus on your core business.

Ø The Benefits of call center services

1.     Always be available

2.     Reduce overheads

3.     Never miss a lead

4.     Protect your data

5.     Trust us to handle it

6.     24/7 order handling

7.     Stay updated

Ø The Benefits of call answering service

1.     Extend your opening hours

2.     2. Achieve 100% productivity

3.     3. Better for business

 Audio Conferencing Solution provides call Quality, Number of Participants allowed, Mobility, Ease-of-use,  Member visibility, Internet-dependency and Flexibility are the main capabilities that any call conferencing solution should have to qualify as a good conference call provider. Audio conferencing service providers are some other aspects like access to call recordings, and auto-scheduling capabilities that are important as well.

[crmvoipsoftwaresolutions]

Major KPIs to Measure the Performance of Your Call Center

“A useful KPI is both accurate and aligned with your goals. Don’t measure anything unless the data helps you make a better decision or change your actions.” This quote by Seth Godin highlights the importance of using the right KPIs.

Managing a call center is not easy. You need to track and monitor a lot of parameters to ensure it’s running well. If you happen to own or manage a call center with the best call center software, you must know the importance of using the right KPIs to not only track agents’ performance or call outcomes but also to ensure customer satisfaction.

Without the right KPIs, you would be shooting in the dark. Only the right KPIs can tell you if things are working in your call center or not. That is why monitoring the right KPIs is extremely important. KPIs enable you to measure so that you can learn and fix. As legendary marketing guru Peter F. Drucker said “What’s measured improves.”

The call center software providers know the right KPIs can do for you and your business. By providing the right call center software, the contact center solution providers have helped many companies that run call centers measure the right KPIs. 

In this article, I have discussed the KPIs you must use to measure your call center’s performance. Read on to gain valuable insights. The call center solutions help boost the performance of the call center by showing these KPIs in the reports and live dashboards.

Calls handled

This includes the total number of calls your customer service representatives handle daily, weekly, or monthly. It doesn’t include abandoned calls or disconnected calls. You can monitor the call handled to know how many calls each agent handled and how many calls the IVR system handled.

Average Handling Time (AHT)

This is the average amount of time that a customer service representative takes to answer a query or fulfill a request. Apart from the total talk time, it also takes total hold time, follow-up time, time taken for call transfers, and after-call work into account. 

Active waiting calls

This real-time KPI shows the number of active call volume versus waiting calls. The rate of active waiting calls can be calculated by dividing the number of calls on hold by the total number of calls at the moment multiplied by 100. The stat can provide valuable insights into agents’ performance.

Agent Utilization Rate (AUR)

It is the percentage of time agents spend on handling customer calls versus the duration of their shift. To give an example, if an agent works an eight-hour shift and handles customer calls for seven hours, then the AUR is 7/8 x 100 = 87.5 percent, which is close to the industry average of 85 to 90 percent.

Customer Satisfaction Score (CSAT)

This KPI shows how satisfied your customers are with your customer support services. You can calculate CSAT by conducting a customer satisfaction survey and asking the respondents to rate your service on a scale of one to ten.

Taking everything into consideration

Knowing the right KPIs can make a lot of difference in a virtual call center. It’s extremely crucial as it enables call center managers to measure their performance and identify key areas of improvement. Choosing the right call center software is as vital as getting the right KPIs. 

Are you interested in using the best call center software that can help you measure major KPIs?

AC InfoSoft offers the best call center solutions that provide an array of reports. To learn more, visit https://www.acinfosoft.com/call-center-solutions/

[theliberaltony]

via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

Much maligned for their performance in the 2016 general election — and somewhat unfairly so, since the overall accuracy of the polls was only slightly below average that year by historical standards — American election polls have been quite accurate since then. Their performance was very strong in the 2018 midterms, despite the challenge of having to poll dozens of diverse congressional districts around the country, many of which had not had a competitive election in years. Polls have also generally been accurate in the various special elections and off-year gubernatorial elections that have occurred since 2016, even though those are also often difficult races to poll.

Does that mean everything is looking up in the industry? Well, no. We’ll introduce some complications in a moment. But I do want to re-emphasize that opening takeaway, since the media is just flatly wrong when it asserts that the polls can’t be trusted. In fact, American election polls are about as accurate as they’ve always been. That doesn’t mean polls will always identify the right winner, especially in close elections. (As a simple rule of thumb, we’ve found polls “call” the right winner 80 percent of the time, meaning they fail to do so the other 20 percent of the time — although upsets are more likely to occur in some circumstances than others.) But the rate of upsets hasn’t changed much over time.

Before we go any further, I want to direct you to the latest version of FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings, which we’ve updated for the first time since May 2018. They include all polls in the three weeks leading up to every U.S. House, U.S. Senate and gubernatorial general election since then,1 including special elections, plus a handful of polls from past years that were missing from previous versions of our database. You can find much more detail on the pollster ratings here, including all the polls used in the ratings calculation. Our presidential approval ratings, generic congressional ballot and impeachment trackers have also been updated to reflect these new ratings, although they make little difference to the topline numbers.

Now then, for those complications: The main one is simply that response rates to traditional telephone polls continue to decline. In large part because of caller-ID and call-blocking technologies, it’s simply harder than it used to be to get people to answer phone calls from people they don’t know. In addition to potentially making polls less accurate, that also makes them more expensive, since a pollster has to spend more time making calls for every completed response that it gets. As a result, the overall number of polls has begun to slightly decline. There were 532 polls in our pollster ratings database, which covers polls in the 21 days before elections occur, associated with elections on Nov. 6, 2018, which is down from 558 polls for Election Day 2014 and 692 polls for Election Day 2010.2

So why not turn to online polls or other new technologies? Well, the problem is that in recent elections, polls that use live interviewers to call both landlines and cellphones continue to outperform other methods, such as online and automated (IVR) polls. Moreover, online and IVR polls are generally more prone toward herding — that is, making methodological choices, or picking and choosing which results they publish, in ways that make their polls match other, more traditional polls. So not only are online and automated polls somewhat less accurate than live-caller polls, but they’d probably suffer a further decline in accuracy if they didn’t have live polls to herd toward.

Still, online polling is undoubtedly a large part of polling’s future — and some online polling firms are more accurate than others. Among the most prolific online pollsters, for example, YouGov stands out for being more accurate than others such as Zogby, SurveyMonkey, and Harris Insights & Analytics. And many former IVR pollsters are now migrating to hybrid methods that combine automated phone polling with internet panels. In the 2018 elections, this produced better results in some cases (e.g., SurveyUSA) than in others (e.g., Rasmussen Reports).

Polls have been quite accurate — and unbiased — in post-2016 elections

Each time we update our pollster ratings, we publish a few charts that depict the overall health of the industry — so let’s go ahead and run the numbers again. The first chart is the one we consider to be the most important: the average error of polls broken down by the type of election. A few quick methodological notes:

By average error, I mean the difference between the margin projected by the poll and the actual election result. For instance, if the poll shows the Democrat up by 1 percentage point and the Republican wins by 2 points, that would be a 3-point error.

To not give any one polling firm too much influence, the values in the chart are weighted based on the number of polls a particular pollster conducted for that particular type of election in that particular cycle3

Polls that are banned by FiveThirtyEight because we know or suspect that they faked data are excluded from the analysis.

Note that I’ve included the handful of elections that have occurred so far in 2019 with the 2017-18 election cycle, even though we’ll classify them them later as part of the 2019-20 cycle instead.

OK, here’s the data:

Post-2016 polls have been accurate by historical standards

Weighted-average error of polls in final 21 days before the election, among polls in FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings database

Presidential Cycle Governor U.S. Senate U.S. House General Primary Combined 1998 8.2 7.4 6.8 7.6 1999-2000 4.9 6.1 4.4 4.4 7.6 5.5 2001-02 5.2 4.9 5.4 5.2 2003-04 6.0 5.6 5.4 3.2 7.1 4.8 2005-06 5.0 4.2 6.5 5.3 2007-08 4.1 4.7 5.7 3.6 7.4 5.4 2009-10 4.9 4.8 6.9 5.7 2011-12 4.9 4.7 5.1 3.6 8.9 5.2 2013-14 4.6 5.5 6.5 5.4 2015-16 5.4 5.0 5.5 4.8 10.1 6.7 2017-19 5.3 4.3 5.0 5.0 All years 5.4 5.3 6.1 4.0 8.7 5.8

Averages are weighted by the square root of the number of polls that a particular pollster conducted for that particular type of election in that particular cycle. Polls that are banned by FiveThirtyEight because we know or suspect they faked data are excluded from the analysis.

As I said, the 2017-19 cycle was one of the most accurate on record for polling. The average error of 5.0 points in polls of U.S. House elections is the second-best in our database, trailing only 1999-2000. The 4.3-point error associated with U.S. Senate elections is also the second-best, slightly trailing 2005-06. And gubernatorial polls had an average error of 5.3 points, which is about average by historical standards.

Combining all different types of elections together, we find that polls from 2017 onward have been associated with an average error of 5.0 points, which is considerably better than the 6.7-point average for 2015-16, and the best in any election cycle since 2003-04.

But note that there’s just not much of an overall trajectory — upward or downward — in polling accuracy. Relatively strong cycles for the polls can be followed by relatively weak ones, and vice versa.

One more key reminder now that the Iowa caucuses are only three months away: Some types of elections are associated with considerably larger polling errors than others. In particular, presidential primaries feature polling that is often volatile at best, and downright inaccurate at worst. Overall, presidential primary polls in our database mispredict the final margin between the top two candidates by an average of 8.7 points. And the error was even worse, 10.1 points, in the 2016 primary cycle. Leads of 10 points, 15 points or sometimes more are not necessarily safe in the primaries.

We can also look at polling accuracy by simply counting up how often the candidate leading in the poll wins his or her race.4 This isn’t our preferred method, as it’s a bit simplistic — if a poll had the Republican ahead by 1 point and the Democrat won by 1 point, that’s a much more accurate result than if the Republican had won by 20, even though it would have incorrectly identified the winner. But across all polls in our database, the winner was “called” 79 percent of the time.

Polls “call” the winner right 79 percent of the time

Weighted-average share of polls that correctly identified the winner in final 21 days before the election, among polls in FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings database

Presidential Cycle Governor U.S. Senate U.S. House General Primary Combined 1998 86% 86% 57% 78% 1999-2000 80 80 56 68% 95% 76 2001-2002 87 87 77 82 2003-2004 76 76 69 78 94 79 2005-2006 89 89 71 83 2007-2008 95 95 83 94 80 88 2009-2010 85 85 75 82 2011-2012 90 90 70 81 63 77 2013-2014 80 80 76 77 2015-2016 68 68 57 71 86 77 2017-2019 77 77 78 76 All years 82 82 72 79 83 79

Pollsters get half-credit if they show a tie for the lead and one of the leading candidates wins. Averages are weighted by the square root of the number of polls that a particular pollster conducted for that particular type of election in that particular cycle. Polls that are banned by FiveThirtyEight because we know or suspect they faked data are excluded from the analysis.

In recent elections, the winning percentage has been slightly below the long-term average — it was 76 percent in 2017-19. But this reflects the recent uptick in close elections, and that resource-constrained pollsters tend to poll these close elections more heavily.5

As basic as this analysis is, it’s essential to remember that polls are much more likely to misidentify the winner when they show a close race. Polls in our database that showed a lead of 3 percentage points or less identified the winner only 58 percent of the time — a bit better than random chance, but not much better. But polls showing a 3- or 6-point lead were right 72 percent of the time, and those with a 6- or 10-point lead were right 86 percent of the time. (Errors in races showing double-digit leads are quite rare in general elections, although they occur with some frequency in primaries. And errors in races where one candidate leads by 20 or more points are once-in-a-blue-moon types of events, regardless of the type of election.)

Polls often misidentify the winner in a close race

Share of polls that correctly identified the winner in final 21 days before the election, among polls in FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings database

Leading candidate’s margin Share of polls correctly identifying winner 0-3 points 58%

–

–

3-6 points 72

–

–

6-10 points 86

–

–

10-15 points 94

–

–

15-20 points 98

–

–

≥20 points >99

–

–

Polls that are banned by FiveThirtyEight because we know or suspect they faked data are excluded from the analysis.

Another essential measure of polling accuracy is statistical bias — that is, whether the polls tend to miss in the same direction. We’re particularly interested in understanding whether polls systematically favor Democrats or Republicans. Take the polls in 2016, for instance. Although they weren’t that bad from an accuracy standpoint, the majority underestimated President Trump and Republicans running for Congress and governor, leading them to underestimate how well Trump would do in the Electoral College. Overall in the 2015-16 cycle, polls had a Democratic bias (meaning they overestimated Democrats and underestimated Republicans) of 3.0 percentage points. And that after a 2013-14 cycle when polls also had a Democratic bias (of 2.7 percentage points).

Polling bias is not very consistent from cycle to cycle

Weighted-average statistical bias of polls in final 21 days of the election, among polls in FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings database

Cycle Governor U.S. Senate U.S. House Pres. General Combined 1998 R+5.7 R+4.8 R+1.5 R+4.2 1999-2000 D+0.6 R+2.9 D+0.9 R+2.6 R+1.8 2001-2002 D+3.0 D+1.4 D+1.3 D+2.2 2003-2004 R+4.2 D+1.7 D+2.5 D+1.1 D+0.9 2005-2006 D+0.3 R+1.3 D+0.2 R+0.1 2007-2008 D+0.5 D+0.8 D+1.0 D+1.1 D+1.0 2009-2010 R+0.7 D+1.7 D+0.6 2011-2012 R+1.3 R+3.3 R+2.6 R+2.5 R+2.6 2013-2014 D+2.3 D+2.5 D+3.7 D+2.7 2015-2016 D+3.3 D+2.8 D+3.7 D+3.1 D+3.0 2017-2019 R+0.9 D+0.1 R+0.3 R+0.3 All years D+0.3 D+0.1 D+0.7 D+0.2 D+0.3

Bias is calculated only for elections where the top two finishers were a Republican and Democrat. Therefore, it is not calculated for presidential primaries. Averages are weighted by the square root of the number of polls that a particular pollster conducted for that particular type of election in that particular cycle. Polls that are banned by FiveThirtyEight because we know or suspect they faked data are excluded from the analysis.

In 2017-19, however, polls had essentially no partisan bias, and to the extent there was one, it was a very slight bias toward Republicans (0.3 percentage points). And that’s been the long-term pattern: Whatever bias there is in one batch of election polls doesn’t tend to persist from one cycle to the next. The Republican bias in the polls in 2011-12, for instance, which tended to underestimate then-President Obama’s re-election margins, was followed by two cycles of Democratic bias in 2013-14 and 2015-16, as previously mentioned. There is simply not much point in trying to guess the direction of poll bias ahead of time; if anything, it often seems to go against what the conventional wisdom expects. Instead, you should always be prepared for the possibility of systematic polling errors of several percentage points in either direction.

Which pollsters have been most accurate in recent elections?

Although it can be dangerous to put too much stock in the performance of a pollster in a single election cycle — it takes dozens of polls to reliably assess a pollster’s accuracy — it’s nonetheless worth briefly remarking on the recent performance of some of the more prolific ones. Below, you’ll find the average error, statistical bias and a calculation we call Advanced Plus-Minus (basically, how the pollster’s average error compares to other pollsters’ in the same election),6 for pollsters with at least five polls in our database for the 2017-19 cycle. Note that negative Advanced Plus-Minus scores are good; they indicate that a firm’s polls were more accurate than others in the same races.

How prolific pollsters have fared in recent elections

Advanced Plus-Minus scores and other metrics for pollsters who conducted at least five surveys for the 2017-19 cycle, in FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings database

Pollster Methodology No. of Polls Avg. Error Bias Adv. Plus-Minus ABC News/Washington Post Live 5 1.7 R+0.9 -4.1 Cygnal IVR/Online/Live 9 2.5 D+1.9 -3.7 Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. Live 7 2.8 R+1.0 -3.0 Monmouth University Live 9 3.1 R+1.7 -2.9 Suffolk University Live 7 2.7 R+1.3 -2.7 Research Co. Online 20 3.8 R+1.1 -2.3 Mitchell Research & Communications IVR/Online 6 2.5 R+0.9 -2.0 Siena College/New York Times Upshot Live 47 3.6 R+1.3 -1.7 Emerson College IVR/Online 66 4.2 R+0.5 -1.5 Marist College Live 13 4.4 D+2.7 -1.1 Landmark Communications IVR/Online/Live 5 4.1 D+3.9 -1.0 YouGov Online 12 3.1 R+1.7 -1.0 SurveyUSA IVR/Online/Live 13 4.1 R+0.7 -1.0 Gravis Marketing IVR/Online/Live 25 3.8 D+0.6 -0.8 Harris Insights & Analytics Online 34 3.7 R+0.2 -0.2 Vox Populi Polling IVR/Online 7 4.5 D+3.6 +0.0 St. Pete Polls IVR 10 2.3 D+1.7 +0.0 Fox News/Anderson Robbins Research/Shaw & Co. Research Live 10 4.7 D+2.7 +0.0 Remington Research Group IVR/Live 5 4.1 D+3.1 +0.3 Change Research Online 57 5.5 D+1.5 +0.6 Quinnipiac University Live 13 4.3 D+2.7 +0.7 JMC Analytics/Bold Blue Campaigns Live 5 6.7 R+5.5 +0.9 SSRS Live 11 5.2 D+4.3 +0.9 Optimus IVR/Online/Live/Text 5 6.8 R+6.8 +0.9 Strategic Research Associates Live 5 5 D+1.9 +1.0 Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. IVR/Live 6 8.6 D+8.0 +1.4 Trafalgar Group IVR/Online/Live 21 4.6 R+1.9 +1.6 Ipsos Online 10 5.3 R+3.0 +2.2 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research IVR/Online 5 6.1 R+5.8 +3.2 Carroll Strategies IVR 5 9.9 R+9.9 +3.4 Dixie Strategies IVR/Live 5 8.4 R+5.9 +3.8

Four of the top 5 and 6 of the 10 best pollsters according to this metric were exclusively live-caller telephone polls. In exciting news for fans of innovative polling, the list includes polls from our friends at The New York Times’s Upshot, who launched an extremely successful and accurate polling collaboration with Siena College in 2016. (It also includes ABC News, FiveThirtyEight’s corporate parent, which usually conducts its polls jointly with The Washington Post.)

Conversely, the five of the top six worst-performing pollsters — including firms such as Carroll Strategies, Dixie Strategies, and Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research — were IVR pollsters (sometimes in conjunction with other methods), several of which had strong Republican leans in 2017-19. Some IVR pollsters did perform reasonably well in 2015-16, a cycle where most pollsters underestimated Republicans. In retrospect, though, that may have been a case of two wrongs making a right; IVR polls tend to be Republican-leaning, so they’ll look good in years where Republicans beat their polls, but they’ll often be among the worst polls otherwise.

Indeed, aggregating the pollsters by methodology confirms that live caller polls continue to be the most accurate. Below are the aggregate scores for the three major categories of polls — live caller, online, and IVR — by our Advanced Plus-Minus metric, average error and statistical bias.7

Live-caller polls have been most accurate in recent elections

Advanced Plus-Minus scores and other metrics for pollsters who conducted at least five surveys for the 2017-19 cycle, in FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings database

Methodology No. of Polls Avg. Error Bias Adv. Plus-Minus Live caller w/cell 356 4.9 R+0.5 -0.3 Live caller w/cell only 210 4.4 R+0.2 -0.8 Live caller w/cell hybrid 146 5.5 R+0.9 +0.4 IVR 239 5.2 R+1.0 +0.3 IVR only 19 6.9 R+5.4 +2.4 IVR hybrid 220 5 R+0.4 +0.1 Online or text 358 5 R+0.4 +0.2 Online or text only 154 5 D+0.4 +0.5 Online or text hybrid 204 5 R+0.8 +0.1 All polls 628 5 R+0.3 +0.0

Averages are weighted by the square root of the number of polls that a particular pollster conducted for that particular type of election in that particular cycle. Polls that are banned by FiveThirtyEight because we know or suspect they faked data are excluded from the analysis.

The differences are clearest when looking at pollsters that exclusively used one method. Polls that exclusively used live callers (including calling cellphones) had an average error of 4.4 percentage points in the 2017-19 cycle, as compared to 5.0 points for polls exclusively conducted online or via text message, and 6.9 points for polls that exclusively used IVR. (Pure IVR polls, however, are now quite rare. Polls that used a hybrid of IVR and other methods did better, with an average error of 5.0 percentage points.)

Polling firms that are members of professional polling organizations that push for transparency and other best practices also continue to outperform those that aren’t. In particular, our pollster ratings give credit to firms that support the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) Transparency Initiative, belong to the National Council on Public Polls (NCPP), or contribute data to the Roper Center archive. Pollsters that are part of one or more of these initiatives had an average error of 4.3 percentage points in the 2017-19 cycle, as compared to 5.4 percentage points for those that aren’t.

Another way to detect herding

Our pollster ratings have also long included an adjustment to account for the fact that online and automated polls tend to perform better when there are high-quality polls in the field. We’ve confirmed that this still applies. For instance, polls that are conducted online or via IVR8 are about 0.4 percentage points more accurate based on our Advanced Plus-Minus metric when their polls are preceded by “gold standard” polls in the same race. (“Gold standard” is the term we use for pollsters that are exclusively live caller with cellphones and are also AAPOR/NCPP/Roper members.) Live-caller polls do not exhibit the same pattern, however; their Advanced Plus-Minus score is unaffected by the existence of an earlier “gold standard” poll in the field. This is probably the result of herding; some of the lower-quality pollsters may be doing the equivalent of peeking at their more studious classmate’s answers in a math test. In fact, these differences are especially strong in recent elections, suggesting that herding has become more of a problem.

There is also a second, more direct method to detect herding, which we’re also now applying in our pollster ratings. Namely — as described in this story — there is a minimum distance that a poll should be from the average of previous polls based on sampling error alone. For instance, even if you knew that a candidate was ahead 48-41 in a particular race — a 7-point lead — you’d miss that margin by an average of about 5 percentage points in a 600-person poll because sampling only 600 people rather than the entire population introduces sampling error. That is, because of sampling error, some polls would inevitably show a 12-point lead and some would show a 2-point lead instead of all the polls being bunched together at a 6- or 7- or 8-point lead exactly. If the polls are very tightly bunched together, this is not a good thing — you should be suspicious of herding, which can sometimes yield embarrassing outcomes where every poll gets the answer wrong

Of course, there are other complications in the real world. There’s no guarantee that the race will have been static since other pollsters surveyed the race; one candidate may be losing or gaining ground. And pollsters have healthy methodological disagreements from one another, so the same race may look different depending on what assumptions they make about turnout and so forth. But these should tend to increase the degree to which polls differ from each other, and not produce herding.

But our herding penalty only applies if pollsters show too little variation from the average of previous polls of the race9 based on sampling error10 alone. If a pollster is publishing all its data without being influenced by other pollsters — including its supposed outliers — it should be fairly easy to avoid this penalty over the long run.

Many polls are closer to the average of previous polls than they “should” be, however. Unlike the previous type of herding I described, which is concentrated among lower-quality pollsters who are essentially trying to draft off their neighbors to get better results, this tendency appears among some higher-quality pollsters as well. In some cases, we suspect, this is because, late in the race, a pollster doesn’t want to deal with the media firestorm that would inevitably ensue if it published a poll that appears to be an outlier. In other cases, frankly, we suspect that pollsters rather explicitly look at the FiveThirtyEight or RealClearPolitics polling average and attempt to match it.

In any event, our formula now detects this type of herding, and it results in a lower pollster rating when we catch it.11. Our pollster ratings spreadsheet now calculates each pollster’s Average Distance from Polling Average, or ADPA, which is how much the pollster’s average poll differs from the average of previous polls of that race.12 Among pollsters with at least 15 polls,13 the largest herding penalties are as follows:

Which pollsters show the clearest signs of herding?

Pollster Herding Penalty Research Co. 1.17 Muhlenberg College 0.84 Angus Reid Global 0.82 Grove Insight 0.71 NBC News/Wall Street Journal 0.53

The list is limited to pollsters with at least 15 polls for which an average of previous polls can be computed.

Other methodological changes

Unless you’re really into details — or you’re a pollster! — you probably aren’t going to care about these … but there are a few other methodological changes we’ve made to our pollster ratings this year.

Previously, pollsters got a bonus if they exclusively conducted their polls via live callers with cellphones, since these have been the most accurate polls over time. But this year, if a pollster uses live-caller-with-cellphone polls in combination with other methodologies, we now give them partial credit for the live-caller bonus. Even though these hybrid polls did not have a particularly good performance in 2017-19, they’ve been reasonably strong in the long run; also, we’re bowing to the reality that many formerly live pollsters are increasingly incorporating online or other methods into their repertoire.

In determining whether a poll’s result fell into or outside the margin of error, a calculation that’s available in our spreadsheet, we now use a more sophisticated margin of error formula that accounts for the percentages of the top two candidates and not just the distance between them. The margin of error is smaller in lopsided races, e.g., when one candidate leads 70-20.

Our Predictive Plus-Minus scores and pollster letter grades are based on a combination of a pollster’s empirical performance (how accurate it has been in the past) and its methodological characteristics. The more polls a firm has conducted, the more the formula weights its performance rather than its methodological prior. In assigning the weights, our formula now considers how recent a particular firm’s polls were. In other words, if a pollster has conducted a lot of surveys recently, its empirical accuracy will be more heavily weighted. But if most of its polling is in the distant past, its pollster rating will gradually revert toward the mean based on its methodology.

For pollsters with a relatively small sample of polling, we now show a provisional rating rather than a precise letter grade. (An “A/B” provisional rating means that the pollster has shown strong initial results, a “B/C” rating means it has average initial results, and a “C/D” rating means below-average initial results.) It now takes roughly 20 recent polls (or a larger number of older polls) for a pollster to get a precise pollster rating.

That’s all for now! Once again, you can find an interactive version of the pollster ratings here, and a link with further detail on them here. And if you have questions about the pollster ratings, you can always reach us here. Good luck to pollsters on having a strong performance in the primaries.

[ultra-morphee-bizzbb6tofly-blog]

1 . CONQUERANT

Je croyais que je n'étais nulle part et c'était un sentiment que j'avais eu tellement souvent que c'était familier maintenant. Ce genre de moment où j'étais happé à l'intérieur et ça se figeait pour l'éternité. Le regard sombre de Morphée mit quelques secondes à se remplir de son âme. Morphée se trouvait sur l'inverse d'un bâtiment. Un robot qui bougeait comme une serre sensible lui parlait avec sa voix de synthèse: Morphée considéra la cicret à son poignet et le bot. Il reconsidéra la vue qui l'avait plongé dans sa petite splendeur de l'instant.

Le bot attendait ma réponse pour pouvoir planter les plantules qu'il baladait dans son coffre abdominal. Je vérifiais s'il avait bien nettoyé la zone et viré les bryophytes avant de lancer la commande.

Pour quelques instants encore je savourais l'idée d'avoir l'air d'un conquérant, les semelles néodymées au bout de cet éperon de building. 3 ans de formation en ingénierie-escalade, passer le test, réussir le test, couplés à 3 ans d'école d'horticulture pour devenir designer végétal, et j'étais là maintenant, dans le feu du couchant, dominant la ville, plantant mes .... C'est quoi ce qu'on a planté déjà?

- On a planté des delphiniums, me répondit le bot..

Oui, et des rideaux de clématite pour le penthouse sous le rack du bureau en-dessous. Je les avais extirpé comme des intestins du bot, avant de les agrapher dans leurs poches en fibres de coco- comme des wallabis orphelins qui remplacent leurs mamans par des sacs.

Il souleva sa cage thoracique: son diaphragme était douloureux. Il n'avait même pas mis de combi, juste son exosquelette sur un vieux t-shirt.

Au départ il y a 3 choses que je déteste: le vide, la vitesse et le temps qui passe.

Il descendit en rappel récolter ça et là quelques groseilles et égaliser la clématite. Après plusieurs minutes à virevolter entre air et paroi, il remonta et appuya sur une touche de la commande contrôle pour signifier au bot de le suivre.

Ils portaient tous les deux la même huche en alu sur le dos avec les pots vides et l'engrais.

Dans l'ascenseur ça faisait bizarre. Morphée siffla une petite musique. Légère déception que le dro ne me suive pas en beat-boxing. Ils étaient à Saint Quentin au carrefour de la rue de la Sous Préfecture et de la rue de Lyon, juste sous le clocheton de cuivre avec la basilique au loin à droite, Poulaillon service traiteur juste en face du carrefour dans son vieil et élégant immeuble en pierre de taille.

Je sentais l'air parfumé des fleurs de fin de printemps qui tressait mes cils, jouait avec mes lèvres. J'aurais eu mon matos j'aurais fait un petit base-jump vite fait, mais je devais encore rendre mon droïde au bureau. Celui-ci venait d’aimanter les outils sur sa carcasse et verrouillait son abdomen-capsule d'où j'avais tiré les plants de delphiniums.

Il attendait mes ordres, la face levé vers le ciel, éteint ou pensif.

Il dévissa ses semelles en néodyme - c'était fastidieux et les autres changeaient tout simplement de paire de chaussures, mais Morphée n'en avait qu'une. Ce qui correspondait au bas de l'estime personnelle qu'il avait pour lui.

Tes skets disent qui tu es.

Le droïde me suivit servilement. Vous avez déjà eu un ami un peu pot-de-colle et honteux? Un pote - ou même une petit-amie- qui ne sait jamais quoi faire, attend toujours que vous proposiez quelque chose et se range toujours de votre avis? Vous savez, le genre 'dépendant affectif'? C'était ça l'impression qu'on avait quand on se baladait avec son dro. Enfin, la mienne. Les autres, que je croise dans la rue, avec leur dro, c'est pas forcément la même. D'abord, ils sont proprio. Moi juste locataire. Pas de quoi donc entamer une super amitié, ni de le considérer comme mon frère parce que papa et maman me l'auraient offert à Noel pour mes 8 ans pour que je ne m'ennuie plus.

A l'époque romaine ils avaient des esclaves, pas vrai? ça devait faire un peu le même effet, en vrai. Et je crois qu'en posséder un ça donnait aux gens une sale impression de se croire supérieurs. Avec un dro on dominait quelqu'un, un humanoïde à défaut d'un humain, on pouvait lui donner tous les ordres qu'on voulait, et il exécutait.

Arrivé au bureau de location, je posais ma question :

- Dis-moi, si j'équipe ce dro d'un parachute et que je lui demande de faire du base-jump avec moi la prochaine fois, il acceptera?

- ll ne base-jump pas.

- Niveau poids ça peut aller?

- L'assurance ne va pas aimer.

Trop d'humains, et maintenant on avait doublé la population mondiale en robot dro. Des dro pour qui des gens payaient des places assises dans les avions, du mobilier, des fringues, de la fausse bouffe, des vraies clopes électroniques si ça te disait pour qu'ils aient l'air cool en soirée ou vivants à tes côtés, de fausses bouteilles d'alcools (vides, en plastiques, des copies de ta boisson favorite) avec un patch qui leur donnait une voix ivre. Non seulement il fallait qu'il ai le plus d'app, la meilleure mémoire, mais aussi il fallait qu'il ai l'air le plus humain possible, bref, intégré. "Mon dro est plus intégré que moi" "Mon dro est plus perf que moi." c'était le même running gag qui revenait. Tu te crois supérieur, et pourtant à la fin un petit complexe d'infériorité commence à arriver.

Certains s'en foutaient, trouvaient ça idiot d'être sentimental envers une machine, et le branchait dans un placard entre l'aspirateur et le balai. D'autres lui faisait une vraie chambre, avec lit-hamac et pyjama-pantoufle, tout.

Un robot-transformer qui nous disait reculez-reculez, attendant qu'il n'y ai plus personne dans son périmètre de calcul pour se transformer. La dernière nouveauté.

Nous ne voulions pas que nos enfants soient éduqués par des robots.

ça c'était la dernière manifestation à la mode.

Les familles manifestent devant les mairies en réaction contre la proposition visant à embaucher des droïdes dans les écoles.

"Ces droïdes n'auront pas de missions éducatives, assurent les politiques. Mais seulement des tâches dites périscolaires: ménage dans les classes, secrétariat, sécurité de l'accompagnement cantine. En restauration scolaire, les repas sont d'ores et déjà préparé par une équipe de droïdes gérés par ordinateur. On gagne en efficacité. Nous suivons la feuille de route politique qui veut supprimer les emplois pénibles et sans gratification. Nous ne sommes pas en train de dire que travailler avec des enfants n'est pas gratifiant, Justement, les postes remplacés n'ont que peu d'interaction avec les élèves: il s'agit principalement de ménage dans les classes et de gestion-comptabilité.

Les seuls postes où les élèves seront en relation directe avec les droïdes sont ceux de l'accompagnement en garderie matin et soir et de la cantine. Là, nous parlons de discipline, d'un cadre d'autorité.

Les écoles-tests ont montré que les enfants sont plus réceptifs aux consignes données par les droïdes, qu'ils contestent moins l'autorité d'un droïde qu'un humain, et que les violences tendent à baisser. "

[willowpaypayrollservices]

Signs that it’s time to change your payroll service provider

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The crucial factor in errors is their frequency. It might be stressful when there are several payroll problems, deduction errors, incorrect tax calculations, etc. Any business cannot function effectively if there are persistent payroll mistakes. This should serve as a caution for businesses, which should then search for new payroll service providers. Hidden Charges Businesses have frequently complained that their payroll services in Richmond were not completely upfront with their price structure during the initial consultation. The contract has some fine print that wasn't disclosed to you upfront.

A long bill at the end of the month results from being charged for every little thing, such as delivery fees for paper checks or additional fees for processing salaries just one day before the actual salary day. A large list of extra charges on an invoice can be a sign that it's time to change payroll service providers.

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[slashrtc1]

The emergence of cloud telephony in India

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