It’s not over yet! May 11/12 aurora watch continues
It was a good night for aurora watchers all over Europe on the evening of May 10th/11th, 2024. Here's a great brief timelapse video sequence from Berkshire in the UK (via @Rainmaker1973 over at the Bye Bye Birdie place).
Among numerous other displays, this particular broad, pink "banner" structure was widely observed across the UK and Ireland around midnight local time / 2300 UT. It persisted, twisting and morphing into a variety of new shapes, for something like half an hour. The night's display as a whole was definitely one for the record books.
The early projections at the NOAA site suggest that the power of the incoming geomagnetic storm will be significantly less on Sunday, May 12th. But the night of May 11th still holds possibilities, as for the time being the storm seems to be holding at the relatively high Kp 8 level (on a scale of 0-9).
NOAA space weather forecasters have observed at least seven coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from the sun, with impacts expected to arrive on Earth as early as midday Friday, May 10, and persist through Sunday, May 12, 2024.
Here are the early graphic projections for the zone of visibility on the evening of May 11 2024. Please note that (a) these are approximations and estimates, not hard and fast indicators of where the solar wind makes planetfall; and (b) as they did last night, they may well improve over the course of the day as newer and better data reaches the predicting devices and personnel.
The European animated projection comes via ITV (UK) weatherman Chris Page.
North American prediction images come via the Space Weather Prediction Center at the NOAA website. Right now (9:30 PM IDT / 2139 UT on May 11th) the NOAA's evening prediction animation for Europe and North America hasn't been generated yet. This still image (updated 1900 IDT) shows where the auroral viewing zone stands right now. The "likelihood of viewing" for Europe seems to have dropped pretty much into the 30-40% range.
That said, though, it's worth noting that the NOAA earlier issued yet another geomagnetic storm watch warning for 12 May, as the Sun apparently popped off both X-class and M-class flares early today; the effects of those are now in transit toward Earth. So we'll see in a day or so what comes of that. Sunspot region 3664, which has been responsible for all this excitement, is plainly not done spitting out flares just yet.
As regards tonight's predictions, it also remains to be seen whether what we get will be better... considering that last night's displays far outpaced everybody's expectations. I for one am quite willing to be surprised. 🙏
It's also worth noting here that so far today, the Kp index illustrated at the Space Weather Prediction Center's experimental aurora dashboard page—an indicator of the current strength of the geomagnetic storm—hasn't dropped off very much from last night's highs. It'll be interesting to see how this behaves as the day goes on. (ETA 2: image updated 11/05/2024, 2140 IDT)
Other useful resources for those interested in space weather generally, and solar weather:
NASA's SOHO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) satellite's "The Sun Now" page
ESA Space Weather Service Network
NOAA (US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Space Weather and Prediction Page
OVATION auroral prediction model from the DSCOVR spacecraft, via SpaceWeatherLive
Richard's first of 2 days at Basingstoke Comic Con was a busy one, including a panel program, photo ops and autograph sessions. He certainly impressed the crowd with his graciousness and charisma. One fan got the thrill of a lifetime when Rich sang Misty Mountains (from TH: AUJ) with him. The event concludes tomorrow. (Credit to OG photo owners.)
Hey by the way residents of central North America and up the sun is still Like That so we’re looking at more aurora tonight, 11pm to 5am EST so check if you’re in the band
Most of Canada is and I think more than half of the US
Also! Very important! Look through your camera
I did not see these colours with my human eyes (although there were definitely hints) but looking through the phone camera?
Could see all the little squiggles dancing across the sky, although those photos are from 3 second exposure
Of course it was still gorgeous and incredibly impressive to human eyes too, watching the white and pastel lines wiggle, but the camera can see so much more than we can