#tversky

[theglassdragoncollective]

Taylor "Oh, I do not like this, I don't think I cope with this thing at all."

Tversky "I have a great idea"

Tversky -starts singing "Dancing Queen"-

[jgroffdaily]

Photos with Jonathan posted by stylist Erica Cloud for publicist Jenny Tversky’s birthday.

[foxqueen-katarian]

Every member of the Cerberus Assembly is a fucking nut job.

All of them.

It’s part of the hiring process; “Do you now, or will you ever try to reshape the world to your desires? If yes, proceed with interview; if no, thank you for your time please reapply at a later date.”

Delilah Briarwood had her Necromancy, Vecna bullshit.

Trent Ikithon had his super soldier army of tortured children.

Vess DeRogna was the Avatar of a collective of Evil Bullshit Wizards from the Age of Arcanum whose ultimate goal was to enslave all of Exandria inside their hive mind. (Possibly they were not quite as bullshit evil as previously assumed, need further information to confirm or deny, will update citation if need be)

Zivan Margolin is at least tertiarily involved in the aforementioned torturing of children.

And then Ludanis Fucking Da’Leth is out here trying to release a God killer because he’s upset he spent hundreds of years learning magic, and some people just go touch grass or ask a God nicely to achieve the same thing. (Old as fuck, has no concept of friendship, aware of the fuckery of his compatriots and just let’s it happen, seems to think he will be exempt from being murdered by the God Killer once released all genre awareness says this is a lie and he will eventually hit the ‘find out’ stage of his ‘fuck around’ plans.)

[thekraftykrakens]

'Doty, take this down: Master Doolan Tversky was overwhelmed with gratitude when the darrington brigade - '

'Oh add that you begged her to sign one of those cards you collect!'

'Doty, do not take that down!'

Part of my series of Prism's Cerberus Assembly Trading cards: Ludinus, Delilah, Jenna Iresor, Astrid

[nicdevera]

daniel kahneman died. someone do a cartoon, kahneman goes to heaven, amos tversky's there: "hey danny, i've got an idea for a paper"

[electriceyespots]

seems any time I read a psychology paper for this class it ends up being Oops, All Salience!

[calicojack1718]

The Passing of Daniel Kahneman, Personal Hero and Inspiration of Ye Olde Blogge

SUMMARY: Daniel Kahneman died at age 90 on 27 March 2024. He was the co-founder of behavioral economics along with the late Amos Tversky, for which he won a Nobel Prize in economics. Kahneman’s work will have an enduring influence on the way we view decision making and human behavior. Ye Olde Blogge was greatly inspired by his work and used it to help explain and predict voting patterns, the…

[june-of-earth]

“The secret to doing good research is always to be a little underemployed. You waste years by not being able to waste hours.”

​— Amos Tversky​

[usunezukoinezu]

''What is more likely, that a seven-letter word randomly selected from a novel would end in ing or has the letter “n” as its sixth letter? This highlights both the availability bias and the conjunction fallacy. All seven-letter words ending with ing have the letter “n” as its sixth letter, but not all with the letter “n” as its sixth letter end in ing. Again, the driving force for the conjunction fallacy is the availability bias. Words ending with ing come to mind more easily.''

-Tversky and Kahneman, Extensional versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment

[theglassdragoncollective]

Whoever made (insert whatever name he is going by now) system DJ needs to be fired. Everyone needs to be fired for this.

[jgroffdaily]

Early red carpet photos from the Tony Awards.

[glyphknight]

Here’s hoping that Oremid Hass also noped out of Ludinus’ plans and is just chillin’ somewhere with his 13 cats, 10 dogs, 6 ferrets, 9 hamster-chinchillas Tversky created, 3 griffons, 5 birds, and 1 very chonky lazy jackalope named Fred.

[utilitycaster]

I love that there is a chance that it was Caleb who set Astrid up in the smut shop. Because she ultimately ended up sitting in the back reading a book. But that also implied that Caleb not only messaged Essek about playing taxi to Aeor but also told him to fetch his ex along the way. The implications of that conversation amuse me greatly. "too busy to do that stuff, can you get them there for me? Also Astrid probably has info. She's currently hiding out in my favourite smut shop and will likely be skittish. Good luck"

So here's the thing, I'm really wondering what's going on because I would think that if Caleb set Astrid up there...he'd be able to say "hey, by the way, I'm sending Essek and a group of adventurers your way, this is the passcode" and handle this all peacefully. Astrid, as an Assembly member, should be scry-proof, and even if her items failed in the solstice she probably would be casting Nondetection or something on the regular.

I suppose it might be a case of plausible deniability (recall that Essek was initially revealed because Caleb sent Frumpkin to spy on his conversation with Ludinus - a mundane or Find Familiar spy wouldn't be foiled by anti-magic fields). But I do wonder if this was more of an "oh, Caleb mentioned this Zadash smut shop that held contraband once at a slightly awkward dinner party 3 years ago; perhaps they'd be sympathetic to a defector given that they carry seditionist drow erotica" situation from Astrid and Caleb and Beau figured it out via good old fashioned Expositor work, a lot of knowledge of Astrid as a person, and sky-high investigation scores.

(kind of a tangent here but I also really do wonder where Astrid falls, exactly, re: her feelings about the current Assembly, because part of why I love her is that she's portrayed as very sympathetic and clearly abused and manipulated by Trent - but she also does take the role of Assembly member very quickly and is very ambitious. Eadwulf is religious and dedicated to the Raven Queen no less so I would assume his position is clear, but I've always wondered if Astrid feels resentment that Eadwulf was able to find some solace and meaning in fate and faith when she couldn't, and if this defection for her is less about the broader anti-god ideology and more 'hey, uh, releasing Predathos is fucking BAD and also I have A Thing about murder cults as an ex-Volstrucker." Hell, Vess DeRogna, who was canonically evil and pretty terrible towards people, still drew the line at releasing the Somnovem. For that matter I also really wonder who else of the Assembly has defected since Uludan is good-aligned and Oremid Hass just gives off the vibe of someone who wouldn't be interested. We haven't met Margolin but I wouldn't be shocked if he's gone along; Doolan Tversky probably is PSYCHED by the Reilora and is fully on board, and I assume Jenna Iresor is not one for rocking the boat. We don't even know who's in the Archmage of Antiquity role now!)

[captainofthetidesbreath]

Astrid is not listed because she's not a minor character! Whoever replaced Vess as Archmage of Antiquity is not listed because you gotta have a name to qualify for the poll.

[essektheylyss]

Welcome to the WWE: World Wizard Entertainment

(Somebody get Vince McSam on the phone.)

Because I am a being of chaos and a chronic waster of time, I have put together a hopefully fun bracket of wizard match-ups! And let's be honest: my entire brand is putting wizards in situations.

For round one, I will be staggering polls throughout the day starting on Sunday, February 19th at 8am PST. Each round will run for a day, and the next round will commence once the final poll of the previous round has finished, at which point I will also post an updated bracket.

You can find all polls on my blog under the tag #world wizard entertainment.

A few notes:

These are wizards, and only wizards, hence why Gilmore is absent. Had I included him, it felt like a slippery slope to having to include a lot of other characters, and I simply did not want to deal.

There are some wizards absent. I do not take criticism on who was left out.

But on that note:

Vecna is absent for being first and foremost a demigod.

Raishan is absent for being first and foremost an ancient fucking dragon.

Vespin Chloras was included despite being a fiend during his time on screen because he is generally known as the most infamous wizard in history, and because I think it's funny.

Jenna Iresor was also included despite never making an on-screen appearance because she is the funniest member of the Cerberus Assembly, and I love her.

Lacrytia Hollow was, to my greatest regret, forgotten—I had decided to add her but failed to notice that I hadn't done so until far too late. But there are some great girlbosses on here already, so we move forward.

Also, on the topic of titles, I did include all current or most recent titles. You will notice that those who are alive but have vacated their positions, willingly or otherwise, are noted as "former."

Any wizards who were killed in the line of duty retain their titles. Lady Briarwood, Madam Archmage DeRogna—I'm not sure what you were working in duty to, but we salute you.

All first round match-ups are as follows; I'll add links to them as I am able, but I will be out or playing my own D&D wizard for most of Sunday. (Tumblr has also tried to eat this post multiple times, so I may discover that the editor refuses to allow me to edit it once it is posted, in which case, rip in pieces, and please check the tag linked above.)

Match 1: Architect Arcane Laerryn Coramar-Seelie vs Speaker of the Fourth Micah Cormorant Match 2: Eadwulf Grieve vs Former Archmage of Civil Influence Trent Ikithon Match 3: Keeper of Scrolls Patia Por'co vs Realmseer Eskil Ryndarien Match 4: Doctor Anna Ripley vs Archmage of Industry Jenna Iresor Match 5: Former Shadowhand Essek Thelyss vs Vera of the Squalleater Match 6: Archmage of Antiquities Vess DeRogna vs Eldamir the Wise Match 7: Arcanist Allura Vysoren vs Loras of the Weaver's Mask Match 8: Archmage of Civil Influence Astrid Becke vs Lythir VaSuun Match 9: Caleb Widogast vs Tuldus of the Ruby Vanguard Match 10: Vespin Chloras vs Halas Lutagran Match 11: Lady Delilah Briarwood vs Lyra of the Slayer's Take Match 12: Martinet Ludinus Da'leth vs Archmage of Cultivation Oremid Hass Match 13: Veth Brenatto vs Archmage of Dysology Doolan Tversky Match 14: Pumat Sol vs Gus of the Green Seekers Match 15: Yussa Errenis vs Archmage of Diplomatic Union Athesias Uludan Match 16: Planerider Ryn vs Lilith Daturai

If you care to see the actual rankings, or if you have no fucking clue who someone is and would like a quick link to their wiki page, I'll include them all below a cut.

May the... best?—smartest? most amoral?—wizard win.

Highly Official Wizard Rankings*:

Architect Arcane Laerryn Coramar-Seelie

Caleb Widogast

Former Shadowhand Essek Thelyss

Veth Brenatto

Keeper of Scrolls Patia Por’co

Lady Delilah Briarwood

Arcanist Allura Vysoren

Yussa Errenis

Planerider Ryn

Archmage of Civil Influence Astrid Becke

Martinet Ludinus Da’leth

Doctor Anna Ripley

Pumat Sol

Archmage of Antiquities Vess DeRogna

Vespin Chloras

Eadwulf Grieve

Former Archmage of Civil Influence Trent Ikithon

Halas Lutagran

Gus of the Green Seekers

Eldamir the Wise

Archmage of Industry Jenna Iresor

Lythir VaSuun

Archmage of Cultivation Oremid Hass

Lilith Daturai

Loras of the Weaver’s Mask

Archmage of Diplomatic Union Athesias Uludan

Lyra of the Slayer’s Take

Realmseer Eskil Ryndarien

Vera of the Squalleater

Archmage of Dysology Doolan Tversky

Speaker of the Fourth Micah Cormorant

Tuldus of the Ruby Vanguard

*According to me, tumblr user essektheylyss. You can make your own official wizard rankings if you want. I'm not your mom.

[azspot]

The secret to doing good research is always to be a little underemployed. You waste years by not being able to waste hours.

Amos Tversky