#yes precisely

[canisalbus]

.

[delestre]

via @labyrynth

Let's consider the sampling bias of a classic polling method: the telephone survey.

In many jurisdictions, robo-calling cell phone numbers is illegal, so right off the jump, our sample is limited to people with landlines.

Second, our survey's calling centre probably doesn't operate 24/7, and you can only answer a home landline when you're at home, so we're also selecting for people who tend to be at home during our calling centre's office hours.

Third, most people who have landlines probably also have answering services and caller ID, so we're additionally selecting for people who answer unknown numbers rather than letting them go to the machine.

Fourth, our recipient needs to be able to participate in the survey, so we're also selecting for people who speak the language(s) in which the survey is being administered.

Finally, after all this, most people will just hang up once they figure out they're being polled, so in sum, we're selecting for people who:

have landlines;

are usually at home during your calling centre's office hours;

customarily answer unknown numbers;

speak the language(s) in which the survey is administered; and

are actually interested in responding to surveys.

Any one of these factors is likely to introduce very serious bias into our results; all of them taken together are going to render our data practically meaningless for most purposes.

Now, understand that this still represents less selection bias than trying to do demographic surveys by reblogging Tumblr polls.

[glitchclock]

Peak Lord meeting

Yue Qingyuan: How about we switch our current piping system to lead pipes- they're much more malleable and sealed. It'd be a great investment.

Shang Qinghua, who barely passed science but does remember some stuff: Hmmm how about we don't.

Out on a mission

Qi Qingqi: And when did he begin to take a turn for the worse

Tearful wife: around the time his doctor prescribed him medicine for his illness

Shang Qinghua, squinting at the label on the bottle: does that say arsenic

Shang Qinghua, sidling up to Mu Qingfang: hey how attached are you to the use of mercury as a treatment for constipation.

[nothatsmi]

The raven king, chapter ten

"How interesting," they say.

(and they say it a lot)

(i'm not kidding. the entirety of the first two books is just both of them saying how interesting the other is. it's suffocating.)

Another medicated Andrew! And black haired Neil!

The two first books hold such bangers, and clearly not enough people ramble about them. I'm a sucker for the relationship they have afterwards obviously, but even before that they're hilarious. Many underrated scenes that could be worth drawing.

Also I underestimated how Neil dress and presents himself - like: he wears oversized, worn out and faded, preferably light-colored clothes; messy curlyish hair with bangs; sports hoodies; JORTS-

... He's got a banger style actually.

[receivingtransmission]

half smoked ciggy in the gutter my beloved

[cultivating-wildflowers]

I feel like it’s because on IG it feels like people are doing it for clout#while on tumblr it feels like a silly little ironic in joke with your buddies#something something#our beloved bit versus their despicable attention-seeking @januarydivide

seeing the third instance of a trending scripted joke on instagram: it was funny the first time but now it’s just cheap humor.

finally finding the new joke post on tumblr after scrolling through a dozen posts vaguely referencing it: I am about to make this my entire personality for the next three to seven business days.

[rayhalloffame]

A little self indulgent but working in a career where you also have to be very precise with your hands. Carmen is down a chef and you’ve cooked with him enough to kind of have an idea of how his kitchen flows and what his techniques are so you offer to stand in.

Regardless, you struggle to keep up with the flurry of movements and shouting during dinner service. Someone is saying “behind” or “corner” or “yes, chef”, pans are sizzling, oven doors are slamming. Knives are chopping. Specifically, your knife into a steak, cooked to perfection by Tina. And then a loud bang startles you, causing you to slice into your finger. It stuns you more than anything else, knife dropping from your hand and onto the work station. Before you have a chance to move your hand blood trickles from your finger onto the wagyu. You’re frozen in place.

Carmen is shouting for wagyu to table 7, yesterday. Your lack of response is what causes his head to pop up from his position at expo, finding your ashen face staring at your hand. “Chef,” he says, waits a beat, then prompts you again to no avail. He dusts his hands on the towel hanging from his apron while he approaches you. You’re dazed until his hands come up to cradle your face, tapping one hand gently on your cheek and calling your name. It brings your attention back to present. Your eyes flick between his concerned ones and the steak sitting dead in front of you. “You alright?”

Your lip wobbles immediately. “I – the steak, uh,” you’re trying with a shaky breath. It’s not even the pain in your finger or the embarrassment. You just put the whole team behind by bleeding on a dish. Carmen’s brow creases. He wraps a hand around your wrist to inspect the wound that has now begun to pool blood at the site. “I ruined the steak, chef. I’m sorry.” Your eyes get glassier by the second.

Carmen nods curtly. “T, take over,” he asks, making brief eye contact with the small chef. Tina agrees, concerned but doesn’t ask questions. Carm returns his attention to you, brings his voice down an octave. “C’mon,” he says, applies some force on your wrist to nudge you backwards. “Step out.” The panicked, apologetic look you give him makes him more insistent, wanting to get you away from the chaos and prying eyes. He’s appreciative for Sydney when she commands, “Chefs, listen to the sound of my voice.”

He guides you quickly with a hand to the small of your back and the other still holding your wrist afloat. A tear is sliding down your cheek by the time Carmen has your finger under running water. He glances at you from under his lashes. “Hurts?” You shake your head and wipe angrily at your cheek. “It’s okay, you’re okay,” he murmurs, softness so different from his harsh control of the kitchen moments before. It makes you feel worse.

“I got it,” you say gruffly around the frog in your throat, pulling your hand from his grip, “get back out there.” Carmen stands with his hands on his hips, watching you inspect your cleaned finger before wrapping a paper towel around it tightly. You turn off the faucet and brush past him to find bandages in the office and he follows.

Except when you do step into the office you stop moving. You drop your head and pull long shaky breaths into your lungs, hands clenching and unclenching. Carmen spins you by your shoulders and tugs you into him, triggering a sob to fall from your lips. He rubs a hand down the back your head comfortingly. “I don’t—,” he starts, “Bear, why’re you so upset?”

You start babbling, “I – I ruined the dish, Carm.” You get your works out between sniffles and hiccups, the collar of his chef’s whites wet with your efforts. “We were already behind an – and I was slow, and I bled on it and T – ina worked so hard on it.” You can feel Carmen’s nods against the side of your face.

“Its a kitchen, baby,” he says. “People get injured all the time. We refire and keep going.”

“I wanted to help and I let you down,” you sniffle. You calm yourself after a few moments. Realizing that you’re holding him up even more, you pull yourself from his embrace. “Go, go,” you shoo him, “I got this, I’m okay.”

Carmen inspects your finger when you unwrap it and decides it’s not dire, that you can care for it on your own if that’s what you want. He cradles your jaw, rubs his thumb across your cheek. You pull one side of your mouth up in a sad smile. “Could never let me down. I appreciate you stepping in for me and, uh, it’s nice. Y’know, seeing you in my space.” He nods, tilts his head to the side. “You’re okay.” Carmy reels you in to kiss the top of your head then lets you go. “Your station is still yours if – uh, if you want to come back.” You smile lightly at him in acknowledgement before he drops his hand and retreats. You do end up returning once you’re bandaged and composed, spurred on by the assuring expression Carmen gifts you each time his eyes linger on you.

[loz-the-noob]

Birthday jellies!!

From left to right: Pegasus, Lucky, Cheddar, Udon and Rusty!

[staticymaticyyourlifeisatravesty]

My understanding thus far of Space Marines 2 and the reddit reactions to Adeptus Asstartes

[drolta]

no notes. just louis and madeleine.

[kyouka-supremacy]

Also, since we're being particularly self-indulgent tonight: I think Akutagawa would be very, uhm, not concerned about his appearance, at least for the time before they get together. You know the “omg there's a slim chance I meet my crush today so I need to fix up the best I can 🥰🥰”? Well, he's the exact opposite: “Falling for you is already the greatest disgrace crumpled on me and I hate you with all I have in my being because of it. I'm perfectly aware you will never love me back no matter what I do, so what would be the point of humiliating myself by adjusting my appearance to your tastes if that wouldn't change anything? And even in the wretched case of you requiting my cursed feelings; then you must own it to love me for my disgusting self, and not some miserable attempt to hide my corruption behind layers of pretending. It's a take-it-or-leave-it deal. Actually I'm going to be meaner to you, just in case.”

[kredous]

OC as a deity tag game

Thanks @hypnostallev and @shounengirlart for tagging me~

Nero as Nightmares and Discord

His intensity is fearsome. When he feels hurt he doesn’t often seek out equal and fair revenge but rather drown them in hysteria and watch them burn. He's temperamental and his emotions are on display for the world to see. He's the last one any human would want to upset, because even though death would not directly befall them, doom and chaos would ensue, surrounding their life until their death.

Saimarith as Warfare and Strategy

Prideful and ambitious, his followers come to him for guidance and luck in battles they feel are too much for them. He embodies the bravery and bloodlust of warfare and the battle intelligence for strategy and leadership. His patience tends to thin around those who don’t respect him or question his intelligence and strength.

Tagging @mynqzo @asphodelles @atomeja @dead--star and everyone who wants to join. No pressure

The Quiz

[bridgertonphd]

BRIDGERTON 1.05 | "The Duke and I" 3.03 | "Forces of Nature"

[heynhay]

no dude, listen, I totally think I’d be a Jedi master, because-

[magnusbae]

pardon Anakin but—what?

[nyanfish]

yosuke hanamura and his pathétique little gay crush.