#2022 recession

[celestial-sapphicss]

reblog and put in tags the prominent musical artists phases in your life

[dontmeantobepoliticalbut]

If Republicans take control of the House this fall, they plan on using debt limit talks — and the possibility of throwing the U.S. into default — if they don’t get their way on slashing government programs.

According to a new interview with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-California), the party is planning on using must-pass debt ceiling legislation to force through the GOP’s agenda.

“You can’t just continue down the path to keep spending and adding to the debt,” McCarthy said in an interview with Punchbowl News, ignoring the fact that economists view national debt obligations as often signaling the health of the economy. “We’re not just going to keep lifting your credit card limit, right,” he continued. “And we should seriously sit together and [figure out] where can we eliminate some waste? Where can we make the economy grow stronger?”

When McCarthy refers to eliminating so-called waste, it is likely that he is referring to, among other things, the GOP’s plans to cut Medicare and Social Security, two of the most popular and vital anti-poverty government programs in the U.S.

Republicans have been attacking the programs over the past months. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wisconsin) has threatened to put budgets up to congressional debate every year, which would almost definitely lead to cuts. Alarmingly, earlier this year, the Republican Study Committee, the largest Republican caucus in the House, put out a plan to raise the age at which people receive full benefits from both programs to 70, while implementing a rule that would raise the eligibility age over time.

The debt ceiling is an effective bludgeon for Republicans to use for this purpose. The debt ceiling accounts for government funding to provide promised payments for programs like Medicare and Social Security, as well as military salaries and other “existing legal obligations,” according to the Treasury Department.

Republicans had threatened to put the U.S. in default last September, after former President Donald Trump urged the party to do so. They appeared to be posing as deficit hawks — something they only do when a Democrat is in charge — while Democrats were debating the Build Back Better Act.

If they pull a similar move in 2023, it could be similar to 2011, when the GOP manufactured a debt ceiling crisis that ultimately “led directly to the worst recovery following a recession since World War II,” according to the Economic Policy Institute.

If the debt ceiling isn’t raised by fall of 2023, when the government is slated to run out of funding, the U.S. could find itself in a situation similar to last year, when it was at risk of defaulting on its loans. This could have triggered a global recession and would have disastrous short- and long-term consequences for the U.S., as the creditworthiness of the country would be ruined.

In other words, Republicans appear to be willing to hold the U.S. and global economy on the brink of disaster in order to force Democrats to capitulate to their demands.

This way, too, Republicans can blame whatever economic fallout will come with either a default, government shutdown or cuts to Medicare and Social Security on Democrats. By pursuing these cuts during a Democratic presidency, they can point fingers at President Joe Biden if they are pushed through — potentially providing the GOP with a weapon come the 2024 election.

Republicans are laying out other plans for if they take the House, which polls say they are likely to do. GOP members of the House Education and Labor Committee have made a list of prominent labor officials like Labor Secretary Marty Walsh and National Labor Relations Board General Counsel Jennifer Abruzzo as well as Biden’s pro-worker task force to target with hearings and attacks if they take control of the House.

[dontmean2bepoliticalbut]

[useless-englandfacts]

Energy companies:...what...what are you doing

Me, taking measurements of the local guillotine so I know what size I need to cut my sheet metal to:.......don’t worry about it

[asadfangirlbitxh]

Blogmas #11

Comfort Friendship Groups <3

The loft gang - New Girl

What I'd do to play a game of True American with them

2. The study group- Community

This show is one of the best-found family shows. The group dynamics are just so amazing. Even the additional new characters such as Chang, Dean, and the replacement characters.

3. The kids and teens - Stranger Kids

Friends who fight interdimensional monsters together are the cutest. I just love their dynamics so much. Honestly, the friendship was the reason season 1 was so good. I wish it was more highlighted in the new season.

4. The kid group from Recess

Their friendship always stood out to me when I was younger.

5) The Police Squad - B99

The fact that every character has a fleshed-out dynamic with everyone makes me so happy. And male and female friendships that are just platonic? YES

6. The Good place - Michael, Janet and their humans

They are the most random people and nonpeople. But they fit with each other so well.

7. The murder podcast group- Only Murders from the building

Two old men and one sarcastic brunette? SIGN ME THE FUCK UP

8. Derry Girls

I love my chaotic Irish girls and the one English boy so much

9. Sex and the city squad

The iconic New York Squad

10. Scrubs Doctor Squad

The people who can put up with JD and Elliot deserve all the awards. I couldn't find a gif but this mention includes Dr Cox, Jordan, Dr Kelso, Nurse Roberts, Bob, Janitor, Doug even Todd

[wangxianficrecs]

Follower Recs

~*~

Here’s a Russian-language fic (confession: I read it via Google Translate) that deals with a CQL-specific point: the POV character is one of Lan Yi’s spiritual white rabbits—who suddenly has to adjust to a very different way of life. (And yes, the story addresses how they subsisted in the ice cave.)

Песенка льда и пламени (A Song of Ice and Fire)

by kasmunaut, WTF Modao Zushi 2022 (fandom_Wei_Wuxian_and_Co) (G, 432, mentioned wangxian)

Summary: And rabbits can be true.

~*~

(Please REBLOG as a signal boost for this hard-working author if you like – or think others might like – this story.)

[bostoniangirl85]

Was out doing errands today and saw/experienced the following: 

1. Long gas lines now that gas has finally dropped down a bit

2. Higher prices in food and personal hygiene products.

3. The shelf of tampons was nearly empty - I managed to find the last box of what I needed.

So yeah, I’m pretty sure we’re about to hit a recession. I’m trying to use as much of my pantry and freezer stash before my next paycheck since I get paid once a month. I’m going to start baking bread from scratch and buying a whole chicken to use for multiple meals instead of buying precut lunch meats.

I’m old enough that I went through the Great Recession in 2007 as a young adult and I’m just so tired. I feel like at my age I should have a house and be working towards retirement but I feel like that’s never gonna happen. Don’t get me wrong, I know how lucky I am to have a good paying job and a roof over my head. It’s just that I feel like no matter how hard I work I’m never going to reach my goals.

Maybe next year I’ll try a summer gig in teaching overseas and see how that goes. Hopefully by next summer flights will be more stable, so we’ll see.  :)

[koontyme]

The ‘Being Known’ podfic series is now complete! Final chapter features:

💕Wangxian get a moment alone

💕Wei Wuxian admits how they got betrothed

💕Wangxian exchange gifts & share a first

🔗Chapter link!

Rated T. 53 min

🔗Complete series link!

Rated M & T. 6hrs 7min.

And with this my Fandom Trumps Hate 2022 gift for @dragongirlg-fics is now complete 😊 It was such a pleasure to create 😄❤

[tomorrowusa]

Just a subtle reminder that almost every recession since the end of World War II began under GOP administrations.

If you think Republicans are good for the economy, chances are you attended Trump University.

[rbroofingremodeling]

The U.S. has been in 48 recessions since the founding of our Country. However, this one is different. The construction industry is facing several obstacles.

Since the COVID-19 pandemic, the construction industry is facing several obstacles – the major issues being supply chain disruptions and labor shortages. However, most builders are having problems maintaining the demand for home remodel and new residential buildings.

According to Bloomberg.com “an underlying shortage of workers – thanks to baby boomers retiring…” – and this will make companies more careful about firing staff in a downturn.

Mainstream media have had to admit that the U.S. is in a recession since the last two-quarters of 2022 have been in negative GDP.

CNBC.com headline reads: “Atlanta Fed GDP Tracker shows the U.S. economy is likely in a recession”.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ.com) headline reads: “If the U.S. Is in a Recession, It’s a Very Strange One”.

In Louisville Kentucky, it is a different story. While many roofing contractors and remodelers are having problems; that’s not the case with R&B.

[dontmeantobepoliticalbut]

According to the most recent polls, Republicans’ electoral fortunes have improved markedly over the last few weeks. Democrats went from a roughly two-point advantage in the generic congressional ballot at the beginning of October to about half a point today. It seems likely the GOP will take control of at least one chamber of Congress in 2023.

There has been a simmering debate over the past few years as to whether claims of conservative populism mean anything in a practical policy sense. Many have claimed that things have changed from the old days of tax cuts for the rich, business-friendly deregulation, and trickle-down economics—like Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO), who once wrote, “We are a working-class party now. That’s the future.”

We now have an answer to this question, and it is firmly negative. If they win in 2022, Republicans are promising the same old massive cuts to social programs, above all Social Security and Medicare, which they’ve been trying to get at for decades. And they’re going to try to force President Biden to agree by threatening a global financial apocalypse. In the words of Roger Daltrey, meet the new boss, same as the old boss.

All four GOP representatives running to head the House Budget Committee have promised that they are going to take the debt ceiling hostage to get big cuts. “Our main focus has got to be on nondiscretionary—it’s got to be on entitlements,” said Rep. Buddy Carter (R-GA). Specifically, they mentioned increasing the eligibility age for Social Security and Medicare, and adding means tests or work requirements. Rep. Kevin McCarthy, who will probably be Speaker of the House if Republicans take control, endorsed the strategy. “You can’t just continue down the path to keep spending and adding to the debt,” he said.

To review, the debt ceiling is a legal mechanism dating from 1917 that says the government can only borrow a certain amount. So when Congress passes a budget requiring some borrowing (which is almost every time), if the resulting debt would go beyond the ceiling, Congress has to pass an additional measure to raise it. It’s as if you had a credit card with a borrowing limit that you could set yourself.

If this sounds weird and stupid, that’s because it is. The debt ceiling is a completely pointless legal archaism. The only other country that has one is Denmark, but its government rendered it inoperative years ago by raising it far above where its debt is ever likely to reach. (It’s a sad demonstration of America’s political dysfunction that we can’t even manage this kind of elementary national housekeeping.)

Despite its stupidity, should the debt ceiling be reached, it would cause a very real crisis. The Treasury Department would probably miss an interest payment, meaning a default on the national debt. Since U.S. government debt is considered about the safest possible asset in the world, and everyone from financial firms to institutional investors to central banks owns trillions of dollars of it, the hit to global economic stability would be severe. That’s why the debt ceiling is “a hostage that’s worth ransoming,” as Mitch McConnell put it in 2012 after doing just that the previous year.

We thus see that the core of Republican economic policy remains unchanged. From the 1980s to today, it is the belief that the rich are too heavily taxed. Aside from the military, the biggest pots of money in the federal budget that might be raided for more tax cuts for beleaguered billionaires are the big welfare programs: Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security.

Ever since Donald Trump won in 2016, there have been innumerable articles, books, and conferences discussing a promised birth of new ideas in the conservative movement. But lo and behold! It’s the exact same party of granny-starving plutocrats as before, except now with a heavy dose of even more overt homophobia, transphobia, and antisemitism, not to mention sheer 200-proof lunacy.

One might wonder why Republicans didn’t gut Social Security and Medicare when they controlled the presidency and Congress in 2017-2018, or even try to do so. (There were large cuts in Trump’s budget proposed in 2018, but they never made it into actual legislation.) The reason is that doing so is grossly unpopular. When Trump proposed huge Medicare cuts in his 2020 budget (one that was dead on arrival because Democrats controlled the House), it polled at about 72% disapproval. A more recent poll by a pro��Social Security organization found overwhelming disapproval for cuts to the program, and overwhelming support for increasing benefits by removing the payroll tax cap. In short, Americans love their Social Security and Medicare, and if they want changes, it is to make the programs more generous, not less.

So Republicans would much prefer to get welfare cuts through coercion and brinkmanship rather than normal legislation. That way they can starve grandma in a bipartisan fashion, while simultaneously trusting that the average swing voter will blame President Biden for it, if not sticking the blame on him themselves.

At any rate, Democrats could defuse the political pipe bomb—which they handed to Republicans themselves, incidentally—in several ways. In the upcoming lame-duck session, they could pass the reconciliation bill they still have available for fiscal year 2023, raising the debt limit to an absurd amount (I personally favor Avogadro’s number), or alternatively implement some formula that would automatically keep the debt limit in line with new borrowing.

Or President Biden could mint the famous platinum coin to increase his borrowing authority through seigniorage, or he could declare the debt ceiling unconstitutional under Section 4 of the 14th Amendment, which states that “The validity of the public debt of the United States … shall not be questioned.” This constitutional argument is surely correct—especially since Congress would be giving Biden contradictory legal instructions, requiring him to spend certain amounts through the budget process while also not allowing him to borrow the necessary balance.

Whatever choice they make, Democrats would be well advised to defuse the debt ceiling forever, before this session of Congress ends. So long as it exists, there is a live chance that Republicans will use it to do something appalling or insane.

[raajasii]

WHAT  COLOUR  DOES  YOUR  LOVE  FEEL  LIKE?

BRIGHT  SUNNY  YELLOW

Sweet tasting popsicles,  summer dresses and shielding your eyes from the sun.   Your love is the excitement of something brewing,  something growing.   It's the almost childish bubbling giggles of something new,  but with the potential to stay.   It's wide smiles,  blinding sunny light and warm bodies that gravitate to one another.   It's the the softness,  the willingness,  the slight holding of breaths in a crucial "what if" moment.   It's the impatience too.   The bouncing on tiptoes to see further than your eyes can reach,  the holding out for a future that never seems to come even though you're ready,  you're so so so ready.   It's the constant feeling of warm sand beneath your feet,  holding out for the crashing waves.   And still you wait,  dry and impatient and with burnt soles of feet.   Your love is sour candy,  enjoying it as your nose scrunches up from the aftertaste of it.   It's hands that grab and take hold,  that reach and ask them to stay and hope and beg and wait.   It's bubbling excitement sure,  but it's also demanding,  focused,  driven.   It's love like a plan,  with a path and route and a clear destination.   And you bonce on your tiptoes,  and burning,  waiting for the soothing water,  the crashing waves,  you hold onto the melting popsicle,  you wait and wait and wait.   It's tiring almost as much as it's lazer focused ambition,  deeply rooted desire and the unrelenting hope that it will work,  that it will come.   And it does,  I promise it does.   The waves crash,  the beach floods and the pain passes,  the water cool and soothing and you can let yourself fall in,  sinking,  sinking.   And it's good,  it's perfect,  what you were hoping and more,  holding and embracing you and welcoming you into the stillness you always knew you were reaching for.

TAGGED BY ;;   @vermilionxwhispers​ mwah mwah ty

TAGGING ;;   idk @ilestlesoleil​  @encgma​  @herepitaph​  @lionfated​  @yoakenouta​  @madamhatter​  @vtriol​  @erloeser​ and whoever else is reading this rn  >:V

[jacksonmunden]

October 19th, 2022, Inktober '22 Prompt # 19 - Ponytail. One of my favorite ponytail characters of all time is the most kickbutt wrestler from 3rd Street School of "Recess," Spinelli!

[just-about-nothing]

AGHHHHHHHHHHHHH

[koontyme]

Chapter 1 of the second part of the 'Being Known' series by @dragongirlg-fics is up! Featuring:

☁  LQR learning about the betrothal

☁ LXC having entirely too much fun on LWJ's behalf

☁ Letters about said betrothal! 

🔗 Link!