#87.3% totality here

[supercantaloupe]

obligatory eclipse photos ooohh

[graaythekwami]

Yo, whats up? I know this is probably not the right place for me to be doing this, but technically there's a question at the end, so yeah? I just get whipped in the middle of night and wrote an alternate version of Sonhador that I realized fit the context in Crimson And Noire a lot and ended up changing it a bit. So welp... Enjoy and say what you think if you want! :3 (ps: english is not my native language so forgive me if it's weird)

She staggered through the darkened corridors of Françoise Dupont just in time to see the purple glitter flecked with gold pass across the walls and roofs, and Marinette wondered the akuma had a target in mind by the way he seemed to be plaguing specific places in the city. Her skin tingled slightly as she touched the cool metal of the science classroom's door, hoping that the shard of some broken vial would be enough to rip through the akumatized pad when she gained an opening to transform.

However, as soon as Marinette entered the classroom she was immediately greeted by total darkness, not even allowing her to see the classroom's large windows to get a general sense of where the akuma was going, so be able to see where was the pantry with empty vials was cleary out of the question.

"Marinette!" A voice that sounded eerily like Kagami's roared behind her, but the bluenette only managed a brief glimpse of her silhouette running towards her before the classroom door was slammed shut by a hand.

"Well well, if it isn't Marinette Dumb-Cheng~" The girl nearly jumped out of her body upon hearing the familiar disdainful voice being directed at her, turning around to find Chloe staring at her with a characteristic smug smile.

"C-Chloe? What... what are you doing here?" Marinette stuttered taking a few steps back, one hand touching a wall so she wouldn't get lost in the absolute blackness that was the room. Though Chloe's figure stood out in the dark like a sore thumb.

"Ugh, do you always have to be so slow?" The blonde rolled her eyes, flipping her hair over the shoulder. "We're hiding from the akuma, duh! And because of you my precious adrikins got caught by it!"

"Wh-What?" She swallowed hard, before replaying what Chloe had said in her head one more time. "And what do you mean we-

"Hey guys! It's Mari-Woe! We can use her as bait for the akuma and escape from school!" Marinette squealed as Kim seemingly popped out of the ground behind her, along with him also Alix, Juleka, Ivan, Nathaniel-

Fuck all her classmates were there.

"The odds of this tactic working are exactly 87.3%, a great number I would say." Max commented by doing something on the calculator in his hands, before lifting his head to look directly at her through the thick frames of his glasses. "After all, you are already used to being the sidekick, aren't you, Lady Noire?"

Marinette felt her stomach drop. "G-Guys, this isn't- Ouch!" She hissed in pain as her knee collided with what sounded like a chair from the noise, but that and everything else was quickly forgotten as she opened her eyes once more.

Because Alya and Kagami were in front of her.

Alya looked terrified of something. Kagami disappointed.

"That was a waste of time." The fencer said in a tone that left no room for argument, turning on her heels to disappear into the darkness without flinching.

Trying to swallow the lump forming inside her throat, the bluenette held out her hand with her girlfriend's name on the tip of the tongue, ready to scream, beg her to stay.

She felt her blood run cold as she saw the silver gleam from her fingertips.

"... Why?" Alya finally whispered, slowly backing away and just like Kagami starting to fade into the darkness. "We... We trusted you! I trusted you! Why out of so many people did you have to be this... thing?"

Gritting her teeth, Lady Noire Marinette lunged forward in an attempt to stop Alya from running away from her, not again- "I am not a thing! I'm not-

The words died in her mouth when she touched the journalist's wrist.

Her claws dug easily into the skin in sickly growing shades of gray, and Marinette felt out of her own body as she watched Alya stare in horror, her body slowly dissolving into ash that disappeared into the darkness like an afterthought, just like that damn stadium, that damn building, that-

Marinette fell to her knees when she found herself alone once more. The girl thought she heard someone calling her name in the distance, or maybe it was just a projection of her head. It was difficult to register or distinguish what was going on around her as the voices seemed to get louder and louder and louder and-

"Freak!"

"I don't…" She gasped, her lungs couldn't seem able to pull in enough air to keep her awake, so why should she insist on keeping trying-

"Monster!"

"I didn't mean it..."

"Useless!"

"Stop..."

"Gross!"

"Stop this-

"Failure!"

"STOP IT-

And everyone died, the end :3

Someone give Marinette hugs!! The poor girl deserves all of them!!

Seeing as the Sandboy chapter is one of the chapters I'm really looking forward to writing, it is really cool to see your take on Marinette's nightmare! Very sad, but written so well. Her hero life and civilian life colliding in such a way would truly be a nightmare. :( Hopefully someone saves her from this soon.

[biomedres]

Perception of Palestinian Undergraduate Nursing and Midwifery Students About Professional Values: A Cross-Sectional Study

Perception of Palestinian Undergraduate Nursing and Midwifery Students About Professional Values: A Cross-Sectional Study in Biomedical Journal of Scientific & Technical Research

Background: Professional values provide a context for appraising beliefs and attitudes that guide behaviors and considered as standards for acceptable actions by professionals toward providing safe patient care. Aim: This study aimed to assess professional values among Palestinian undergraduate nursing and midwifery students and examine the relationship between students’ demographics and professional values. Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional design was used in this study. A convenient sample of 370 undergraduate nursing and midwifery students from the Islamic University of Gaza, Palestine completed an electronic version of the revised nursing professional values scale, which consists of 26 items covering five domains (caring, trust, justice, activism and professionalism). Results: Age of participants ranged between 18 and 36 years with a mean of 21.1 years. The majority of them were females (60.7%), regular students (87.3%), were enrolled in the nursing program (95.4%). The top caring statement rated by the participants was “Maintain confidentiality of patient” (4.41) while the statement “Protect rights of participants in research” received the lowest score (3.62). The mean total scores of the domains of revised nursing professional values scale ranged between 3.610 for the “professionalism” domain and 4.133 for the “justice” domain. The variables related to age, gender, grades cumulative average, study year did not impact the scores of the revised nursing professional values scale or its domains. Conclusion: This study found that professional values were relatively high among Palestinian nursing and midwifery students. Justice and caring domains were rated highest by participants, while activism and professionalism domains were rated low. These results should alert nursing educators to their roles in improving these values among nursing and midwifery students. This could be approached by empowering, role modeling and engagement of students in more activities to enhance these values.

For more articles in Journals on Biomedical Sciences click here bjstr Follow on Twitter : https://twitter.com/Biomedres01 Follow on Blogger : https://biomedres01.blogspot.com/ Like Our Pins On : https://www.pinterest.com/biomedres/

[topinsurancebrokerage]

IMPORTANT THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT LIFE INSURANCE

Life insurance is an important tool to keep your financial plan on track against life’s mishaps. It comes in many different forms such as life cover, total and permanent disability cover, critical illness or trauma cover, and income protection cover. Each can play an important role protecting you and your loved ones’ lives.

Yet many people remain unsure of why they need life insurance or whether it will be there when they really need it. The life insurance industry paid out $10 billion in claims last year according to industry group, the Financial Services Council. Here are five reasons why it’s worth making sure you’re covered in the event of a disaster.

1. PEOPLE MAKING LIFE INSURANCE CLAIMS ARE YOUNGER THAN YOU THINK

Australians enjoy some of the longest lifespans in the world. Men and women aged 65 in 2014-2016 can expect to live to 84.6 years of age and 87.3 years of age respectively, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. However, the average claim age for life insurance is only 66 years for men and 63 years for women, according to an analysis of ClearView data. It shows the importance of insuring against the unexpected, whether a terminal illness or death due to accident or illness, so that you can maintain your standard of living, including paying for medical treatment, or look after loved ones if you’re not there.

2. INSURANCE CLAIMS INVOLVING ADVISERS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE ACCEPTED

A comprehensive 2016 life insurance survey by the corporate regulator, Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC), found insurance claims were declined in just 7 per cent of claims when a financial adviser was involved. Life insurance claims through a superannuation fund (known as group insurance) were declined in 8 per cent of cases while direct life insurance (sold through the Internet or a call centre), were declined in 12 per cent of cases. However, one insurer via direct sales declined 29 per cent of claims while one insurer via a super fund declined 23 per cent of claims, suggesting a skilled financial adviser can be valuable to ensure protection is there when you or your family needs it most. An adviser can ensure you have the right type of cover provided by a reputable insurer and then help you navigate the process if you need to make a claim.

3. MOST LIFE INSURANCE CLAIMS ARE PROCESSED QUICKLY

More than 130,000 insurance claims were processed in 2017- 18 by the major insurers that have subscribed to the new Life Insurance Code of Practice. The industry reported that 89 per cent of income-related insurance claims were decided within two months while 92 per cent of non-income-related claims were decided within six months.

4. NEW LEGISLATION MAY HAVE CLOSED YOUR INSURANCE IF IT’S ATTACHED TO SUPER

Many superannuation funds automatically include life insurance. Unfortunately, many people are unaware they have this insurance or are unlikely to ever use it – the result is their retirement savings are slowly eaten away by premiums. The Government’s Protecting Your Super package aims to stop this from happening. From 1 July 2019, super accounts with insurance that were inactive for at least 16 months have had their insurance cancelled. An opt-in choice to continue with your insurance was, however, available. If you have any concerns, contact your financial adviser who can also ensure you have the most appropriate life insurance.

5. LIFE INSURERS WANT A REGULATORY OVERHAUL SO THEY CAN OFFER REHABILITATION BENEFITS

Employment provides people with the money they need to support their lifestyle. However, those who are incapacitated and unable to work lose more than an income: it can also dent their happiness and self-confidence. Life insurers are lobbying for a change to legislation which would allow them to fund treatment for Australians at risk of long-term incapacity where they are not covered by private health insurance or stuck on public healthcare waiting lists. Research commissioned by life insurance representative group, the Financial Services Council, suggests such reforms could provide benefits for up to 10,118 people per year while 87 people could be prevented from becoming totally and permanently disabled. Early intervention by life insurers could also cut return to work times from 18 to 13 weeks.

WANT TO KNOW MORE?

If you would like to discuss the contents of this article, please call us at 02 8015 5507 or email us at info@angelicinsurance.com.au Please note that at Angelic Insurance, we can only provide you with general information, and do not consider your personal objectives and financial situation. You should consider whether the advice is suitable for you before making the final decision.

[nicoappreciation]

ROUND 1 RESULTS - PJO/HOO SHIP BRACKET 2022

A very exciting round one! IF YOU WANT TO VOTE IN ROUND TWO, GO HERE. In the meantime, here’s the results of the first poll:

TOTAL RESPONSES: 270

1. Percabeth vs Jasiper:

Percabeth - 205 votes (94%)

Jasiper - 13 votes (6%)

Winner: Percabeth

2. Perachel vs Percalypso:

Perachel - 185 votes (87.3%)

Percalypso - 27 votes (12.7%)

Winner: Perachel

3. Posally vs Tysella:

Posally - 101 votes (47.4%)

Tysella - 112 votes (52.6%)

Winner: Tysella

4. Thaluke vs Octachel:

Thaluke - 138 votes (68%)

Octachel - 65 votes (32%)

Winner: Thaluke

5. Gruniper vs Tratie:

Gruniper - 165 votes (77.5%)

Tratie - 48 votes (22.5%)

Winner: Gruniper

6. Jeyna vs Theyna:

Jeyna - 32 votes (14.5%)

Theyna - 189 votes (85.5%)

Winner: Theyna

7. Jasico vs Percico:

Jasico - 167 votes (81.5%)

Percico - 38 votes (18.5%)

Winner: Jasico

8. Lazel vs Valgrace:

Lazel - 23 votes (10.7%)

Valgrace - 192 votes (89.3%)

Winner: Valgrace

9. Frazel vs Caleo:

Frazel - 162 votes (78.3%)

Caleo - 45 votes (21.7%)

Winner: Frazel

10. Solangelo vs Valdangelo:

Solangelo - 133 votes (60.7%)

Valdangelo - 86 votes (39.3%)

Winner: Solangelo

11. Valzhang vs Pipeyna:

Valzhang - 53 votes (24.7%)

Pipeyna - 162 votes (75.3%)

Winner: Pipeyna

12. Pipabeth vs Jercy:

Pipabeth - 170 votes (78.7%)

Jercy - 46 votes (21.3%)

Winner: Pipabeth

13. Jasabeth vs Pipercy:

Jasabeth - 90 votes (45.9%)

Pipercy - 106 votes (54.1%)

Winner: Pipercy

14. Reynabeth vs Reychel:

Reynabeth - 150 votes (68.5%)

Reychel - 69 votes (31.5%)

Winner: Reynabeth

15. Ruegard vs Charlena:

Ruegard - 144 votes (66.7%)

Charlena - 72 votes (33.3%)

Winner: Ruegard

16. Brason vs Lukabeth:

Brason - 241 votes (95.6%)

Lukabeth - 11 votes (4.4%)

Winner: Brason

ROUND TWO IS UP! VOTE HERE

[12raben]

Almighty Hat’s Modest Lady - texture referenced

EDIT 3/1/2022: Updated the whole set to include elder clothes in elder shape. It’s located in a separate post here.

EDIT 31/12/2021: Added a link to Vampirekiss6661′s fixed teen mesh.

If you’re playing in a medieval setup, chances are good, that you are very familiar with Almighty Hat’s countless contributions to the community. One of those is the Modest Lady: A set of 72 simple yet elegant gowns for female sims (144 if you’re adding teens). Now. When making another default replacement, I found, that all 72 dresses come with a diffrent empty texture and a frankly speaking unnecessary normal map for the alpha group. This of course increases file size and loading time. Don’t get me wrong, I love and appreciate Almighty Hat’s hard work, but I still decided to make some edits to her files.

Warning: Wall of text. Next to no pictures. Very boring, but might be worth your time.

What did I do the files? Well, a mind-numming rinse and repeat of editing material definions mostly. Changes include:

I linked ALL outfits to ONE normal map and ONE empty texture

Deleted unnecessary textures

Edited the tooltips to inform about the mesh used and to indicate the usage of external textures

Edited filenames to get rid of special characters, spaces etc.

Merged files for your convienence

Why do I use an empty texture still, instead of using a Null texture? For the life of me I couldn’t get it to work. I think, I tried everything to make the alpha group use no texture at all, alas it didn’t work. So, you and I are stuck with 1 measly, empty 8x8 pixel texture. But this is still better, than 72 1024x1024 textures and 72 1024x1024 normal maps. (Those are all gone.) If you don’t understand, what the diffrence between empty and null textures are, please read this post by skell. It enlightend me on the subject.

Other than that, nothing changed from Almighty Hat’s original settings. All dresses are available for young adults, adults and elders. Teen version is of course for teens only (Duh!). They are categorized as everyday, formal and outerwear clothes. The dresses will not spawn on townies.

There is a thing, that changed: File size. Before: 94.2 MB After: 87.3 MB A total diffrence of 6.9 MB!

Are you excited yet?? Well, come with me on a journey full of

very boring, technical information!

For your simming needs, there are a few options avaiable. We’re going from most to least complicated.

First off: There is no mesh included in the archives. I prefer to have mine separate. And there are diffrent versions of the mesh available, so you’re better off getting, what suits your game best. Most medieval simmers will probably have it already. The mesh is Iamliz13's Alpha-Editable Medieval Gown, so you’ll need either the original or one of the edits floating around the interwebs.

EDIT 31/12/2021: I just stumbled over vampirekiss6661′s UV-map fix for the teen dresses. It’s included with Vampirekiss6661′s Strumpet. If you’re using the teen dresses make sure to get the meshes with the UV-fix. You can use the links below, but there will be a jump on the teen dresses’ texures.

Here is the original. For adults: Mesh_Liz13_afmedievalalphadress For teens: Mesh_Liz13_tfmedievalalphadress

Here is an edited version. (Part of the ACME starter kit) For adults: Mesh_Liz13_afmedievalalphadress_preg_by_Dicreasy-UVedit-ByVK For teens: Mesh_Liz13_tfmedievalalphadress_preg_morph_by_Dicreasy

I’ve tested with these and both work. If you’re playing with teen pregnancy, you’ll want to get the edited meshes.

Almighty Hat's Modest Lady - Separated

In the archive for adults you’ll find 3 folders, 2 master packages and a read me with all necessary information. In the folders are packages, that will add one dress at a time to your game. Please, refer to Almight Hat's original post for swatches. You can select any number of packages you want to add to your downloads folder. Since I couldn’t nullify the texture on the alpha group, I did the next best thing: I created a masterfile. “MASTERFILE_emptyalpha_12Raben” is a small little package, that I have often used, when I was unable to use Skell’s exported Null-txmt. It contains the information for the game, that it should display a teeny-tiny empty texture, without a normal map. The other one “MASTERFILE_AlmightyHat-modestlady-bmp_12Raben” contains the normal map all dresses are linked to. These master files are absolutly required to use any of the dresses in this archive! Failing to add these files to your downloads folder will cause errors. Probably nothing harmful or game breaking, but definitely weird looking. When you're done selecting, please consider to merge the files. Quick and easy tutorial on how to do that here (by keoni). Upcoming uploads might include it as well. However: You will only need one copy of my masterfiles in your downloads folder.

The teen dresses come separated as well. But I made them use the adult textures, so they won’t work on their own. And I don’t plan on making a standalone version for teens. Sorry. In the archive you’ll find 3 folders and a read me with all necessary information. Like the adult textures one package will add one dress to you’re game. But they require their adult counterpart. What does that mean? E.g. You want to add

TF-body-Iamliz-AlphaDress-AlmightyHat-ModestLady_Adonis

to your game. You will need:

AF-body-Iamliz-AlphaDress-AlmightyHat-ModestLady_Adonis

and the masterfiles for adults MASTERFILE_AlmightyHat-modestlady-bmp_12Raben MASTERFILE_emptyalpha_12Raben

These archives are probably best suited for people, who are comfortable with SimPe or at least have a very organised downloads folder, so nothing gets lost in oblivion.

With that out of the way let’s get to the more convienent files.

Almighty Hat’s Modest Lady - Merged

In the archive for adults you’ll find 3 packages and a read me with all necessary information. These will add multiple dresses to your game at once. For easier handling the masterfiles are merged with them as well.

AF-body-Iamliz-AlphaDress-AlmightyHat-ModestLady_AeliaAutum-txtref-12Raben-merged - Contains all dresses from the Aelia Autum Palette - This gives you 20 dresses at once

AF-body-Iamliz-AlphaDress-AlmightyHat-ModestLady_CuriousB-txtref-12Raben-merged - Contains all dresses from the CuriousB Palette - This gives you 42 dresses at once

AF-body-Iamliz-AlphaDress-AlmightyHat-ModestLady_Pooklet-txtref-12Raben-merged - Contains all dresses from the Pooklet Palette and the original texture - This gives you 10 dresses at once

Only the mesh is needed. No other files are necessary. Pretty easy peasy, right? The teen dresses have a merged option as well, but as before: They need their adult counterpart.

TF-body-Iamliz-AlphaDress-AlmightyHat-ModestLady_AeliaAutum-txtref-12Raben-merged -requires: AF-body-Iamliz-AlphaDress-AlmightyHat-ModestLady_AeliaAutum-txtref-12Raben-merged

TF-body-Iamliz-AlphaDress-AlmightyHat-ModestLady_CuriousB-txtref-12Raben-merged -requires: AF-body-Iamliz-AlphaDress-AlmightyHat-ModestLady_CuriousB-txtref-12Raben-merged

TF-body-Iamliz-AlphaDress-AlmightyHat-ModestLady_Pooklet-txtref-12Raben-merged -requires: AF-body-Iamliz-AlphaDress-AlmightyHat-ModestLady_Pooklet-txtref-12Raben-merged

Failing to add the required files to your downloads folder will cause errors.

Now there’s only one left: This for those of you, who want to commit, like no one commited before....

Almighty Hat’s Modest Lady - All-In-One

If you just love all the dresses and can’t possibly pick just a few of them, I provide 2 All-In-One archives. One for adults and one for teens. Beware though: Both packages together will add 144 dresses at once to your game. Teen dresses will need the adult counterpart, but other than that only the meshes are needed. No other files are necessary.

A word about teen dresses:

Winter already made a texture referenced version of the Modest Lady set. From what I can tell, glancing at her files, she used Almight Hat’s textures as a basis. That means, if you wanted to use all 72 dresses, that all 288 textures of Almighty Hat would be required for them to work. My version contains only 74 textures at max. (72 base textures, 1 normal map and one empty texture.) In short: My adult textures are not compatible with Winter’s teen dresses.

I also want to adress, that there is a “jump” in the texture on teens.

EDIT 31/12/2021: Unless(!) you keep track of you files, silly me. There is a teen mesh available by @vampirekiss6661, which I totally forgot existed. It fixes the whole mapping issue, so be sure to use “Mesh_Liz13_tfmedievalalphadress_preg_by_Dicreasy-UVedit-ByVK”. (Link above) to avoid this issue:

This is however also present in the original files and barely noticeable, when not zoomed in like above. This is how the mesh works and since I’m not capable of meshing or uv-mapping, this is a “problem” we’re stuck with. One could probably butcher the textures, so it isn’t noticeable anymore, but this would get rid of the sweet decrease in file size, I was aming for. Also one should keep in mind, that Iamliz13 probably didn’t make that alpha group to be turned invisible. Usually it covers this seam.

I’m also aware, that there is a mesh conversion for elders available, but I just don’t want to edit files anymore. 😞 Just so you know.

As I’m providing diffrent degrees of merging, please make sure to not use diffrent versions of this. So, if your’re using either Almight Hat’s or Winter’s files, make sure to delete them first. If you have them in your game already, replacing Almighty Hat’s files with mine shouldn’t cause any issues, since I used the original files. Sims dressed in them *should* keep them, but I’m not 100% sure of this. I can’t speak for Winter’s files though. I don’t know, whether she used Almighty Hat’s files or started from scratch. Deleting clothing is however not game breaking, the only issue you might encounter is, that a teen, who wore them will get a new random outfit.

Also: Rename my files. I gave them super long names, so eveything is clearly named and you can easily distinguish them. But as we know, the longer the file name, the longer the game takes to load. I went ahead and got rid of special characters, spaces and such, but you probably have a naming system, that works best for you. The files tooltips have also been edited, so you will know, 12Raben aka I screwed around with them. 😏

+Credit+

All credit goes to Almighty Hat! She did all the work tbh. All I did was clicking import, commit and save a few hundred times. Credit also goes to Iamliz for the original mesh as well as Dicreasy and Vampirekiss for their mesh-edits.

So without further ado: All files have been uploaded to SFS! And don’t forget to get the meshes, if you don’t have them already!

Here is the folder.

+Download - Modest Lady Separated+

Quick & Dirty install instructions

Each package will add one more dress to your game.

You can add any number of packages you want to your downloads folder.

requires: -MASTERFILE_AlmightyHat-modestlady-bmp_12Raben -MASTERFILE_emptyalpha_12Raben

When you're done selecting, please consider to merge the files.

+Download - Modest Lady Separated for teens+

Quick & Dirty install instructions

Each package will add one more dress to your game.

You can add any number of packages you want to your downloads

requires: -MASTERFILE_AlmightyHat-modestlady-bmp_12Raben -MASTERFILE_emptyalpha_12Raben -their adult counterpart

When you're done selecting, please consider to merge the files.

+Download - Modest Lady Merged+

Quick & Dirty install instructions

No other files are necessary. Just plob them into your downloads folder.

+Download - Modest Lady Merged for teens+

Quick & Dirty install instructions

requires: -their adult counterpart

+Download - Modest Lady All-In-One+

Quick & Dirty install instructions

No other files are necessary. Just plob them into your downloads folder.

+Download - Modest Lady All-In-One for teens+

Quick & Dirty install instructions

requires: -their adult counterpart

Phew. Happy simming!

[snkpolls]

SnK Episode 60 Poll Results (for Anime Only Watchers)

The poll closed with 159 responses. Thank you to everyone who participated!

Please note that these are the results for the Anime Only Watchers’ poll. If you wish to see the results for the Manga Readers’ poll, click here. 

Anime only watchers, beware of spoilers if you venture over to the manga readers’ poll results.

--

RATE THE EPISODE 130 Responses

And we’re back! An explosive premiere brings the series back. The vast majority seemed to enjoy the episode, with only 2.3% of folks giving it a score below a 3.  

I thought some of the directing in the action scenes was odd and the music didn’t feel as well integrated/utilized as in past seasons.

If this season is consistently as good as this first episode, AOT will indeed end as a perfect masterpiece

ARE YOU HAPPY ABOUT THE CHANGE FROM WIT STUDIO TO MAPPA? 127 Responses

The Studio change from WIT Studio to MAPPA was a subject of much scrutiny and debate before the season’s release. With almost 61% showing some form of enthusiasm about a new studio’s take on the series. The opinion is not uniform, of course, with just over 18% stating their preference for WIT studio. Slightly less (17.3%) can’t give an answer yet and the rest don’t seem to care at all.  

I wished MAPPA would make the latter episodes a little more vibrant and lessen the blur

mappa as some of my favorite shows (banana fish, yuri on ice, etc) so it was kinda cool to see they picked up AOT szn 4 ! i’m excitedly waiting to watch the next episode, (and with my ‘watch partner’ aka tumblr friend who discusses with me as we watch LOL).

WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT THE CGI TITANS? 127 Responses

If there’s one thing that’s rather controversial about the series’ animation adaptation, then it’s certainly the use of CGI (particularly when animating Titans). The opinion of the fanbase seems to be rather positive, nonetheless. 72.4% of responders gave the CGI some praise (be it more open or more reserved), while 18.2% were more negative about the use of CGI. At the bottom was 9.4% who stated that they preferred WIT’s style of CGI to the one utilized in the episode.  

cgi wasn't bad but I was disappointed that it wasn't the 2d animation from the trailer

HOW DO YOU FEEL ABOUT THE NEW OPENING? 128 Responses

When it came to the season’s opening, there was a positive response, with more than 72% expressing a favorable opinion. 21.1% didn’t seem to care for it and about 6% stated that they thoroughly disliked it. 

OP is WAY too overrated, nowhere near as good as the original, too much glorification of the kind of nationalism that led to Nazi germany's rise to power

HOW DO YOU FEEL ABOUT THE NEW ENDING? 130 Responses

The new ending received very similar scores, with a similar figure of more than 72% expressing a positive view of the ending and a little over a quarter not caring for it. The proportion disliking it was much lower however, with only 2.3% of folks expressing those thoughts.

HOW DO YOU FEEL ABOUT THE 4 YEAR TIME SKIP? 126 Responses

One of the grandest developments that came about in this episode is the fact that a 4 year time skip has occurred since the defeat of the Warriors in Shiganshina. Although there is a sizable minority expressing negative feelings (13.5%), the definitive majority is coming in with enthusiasm (70.6%). The rest are still thinking this change over. 

wtf is going on? Who are these new people? Why are we supposed to care about them if they're from Marley? Where are the main characters? Yeah, I suppose Reiner and Zeke technically count as MCs, but there is an appalling lack of 104th characters that needs to be fixed asap!

HOW DO YOU FEEL ABOUT THE SETTING CHANGE? 125 Responses

In a similar vein, a remarkable new development is a change of setting. The majority (almost 61%) see it in a positive light, while 16% seem to dislike it. Just over 19% aren’t certain yet. 

After what Reiner and co. did, I am not at all interested in their side of the story and just want Eren and co. to completely decimate these people

Fun to meet new characters but I'm eager to know whats going on with the characters we know

It feels a little disorienting but it's a logical progression of the story

Strange

Wouldnt mind the change of setting if we at least had it from the 104th's perspective

I wasn’t expecting it to be so focused on new characters, and I was disappointed at first but I’m indifferent now.

Not liking the new perspective. At least for this new batch of kids. If Reiner and Zeke are going to be a major focus for a while, wouldn't a short series of flashbacks for their pasta work better than a completely new spin-off from the main story?

WHICH NEW CHARACTER IS YOUR FAVORITE SO FAR? 125 Responses

As this episode introduced a lot of new characters, we got a colorful pie chart for this one. The plurality of responses (40%) chose the kind-hearted Falco, while 28% went with passionate Gabi. 14.4% chose the caring Colt and 13.6% went with the cool Jaw Titan holder. The last couple of responses picked out the stoic General Magath and the quiet Zofia. Poor Udo didn’t get a single vote!

I loved it. I love the new art style, my favorite scene was Gabi destroying the train, she's awesome. I really love Falco as well and Colt. Galliard's titan design is sick

I literally don't give a shit about these new kids, I don't care about their story, just bring back EMA and the 104th already!

WHO DO YOU THINK WILL INHERIT THE ARMORED TITAN? 125 Responses

Another colorful pie chart! An almost even split for the (possible) future inheritor of the Armored Titan. 37.6% believe Falco will take it, while 27.2% went with Gabi. 33.6% do not see any of the cadets inheriting Reiner’s titan and the last couple of votes went ahead to Zofia instead.

WHO HAD THE BETTER GLOW UP? 127 Responses

When drawing comparison to Reiner and Zeke’s looks in the previous season, there was a clear favorite among the responses - Reiner, with 74%. Zeke had the preference of 15% and those who didn’t feel like either of them “went through a glow up” took 11%. 

can we acknowledge how good zeke, reiner, and [redacted] looked 😌🥰

REINER PLEASE FUCK ME

WHAT DID YOU THINK OF THE JAW TITAN? 126 Responses

New season, new setting, new titan! The vast majority of viewers seem hyped about the Jaw Titan and find its design really cool. 15.9% aren’t as thrilled about it, and 9.5% haven’t decided yet. Most of the write-in comments implied a connection with the Jaw Titan. But for the purpose of avoiding spoiling those who haven’t drawn the same conclusion, we won’t be publishing them. Just know we see you. ;)

i was lowkey scared lmao

CART TITAN - BETTER WITH ARMOR OR WITHOUT? 127 Responses

We are reunited with the eerie Cart Titan from S3, but this time flexing cool armor and machine guns on its back! The overwhelming majority of respondents prefer it better tricked out in its armor, over a small minority who appreciate its natural creepiness more.

MOST OF THE EPISODE FOCUSES ON GABI. WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT HER? 124 Responses

Gabi appears to be a point of controversy among anime viewers already, with 38.7% viewing her favorably, 37.9% viewing her less favorably, and 16.9% not sure how to feel about her yet. Some comments feel she is similar to Eren in some ways, while others found her annoying. And yes, she did break international law. :P

Eren, but smol and female xD

I hate her already

I think she’s awesome

She's like Eren was

she passionately creepy but i like her lol

shes annoying

Gabi is SO annoying istfg really hope Falco gets more focus than Gabi, he seems nicer and more relatable

FALCO MENTIONED SOMETHING ABOUT “FLYING AROUND WITH A SWORD” AND “ATTACKING TITANS.” WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THAT? 126 Responses

Overall, no one seems to know what’s going on, though many are theorizing that this is related to the paths, titan powers/memory transfer, or Eren somehow. What could this mean for the future of Falco’s character?

Dig at anime viewers returning to S4

He saw the memories of a survey corps member

I have a couple theories, regarding the memories that intelligent Titans share back and forth

maybe he had one of those flashback/forward things that erens dad had

WHO DO YOU THINK WAS BUYING THE NEWSPAPER AT THE END? 126 Responses

Nearly 90% of respondents are certain that this mystery character is someone we know, while just a small handful of people believe it’s someone new, and about the same amount not ready to make a call one way or the other yet. Some write-ins on the poll had guessed specifically who the character may be already. But we won’t spoil you just yet. 👀

The end credits guy is definitely someone we know, but I highly doubt it's Eren

The sharp-looking dude at the end just HAS to be someone we know on Paradis, there's no way they'd just throw us in to this new cast of nobodies without some connection to the main characters

WHAT DID YOU THINK OF ELDIANS BEING USED AS WAR FODDER? 126 Responses

The treatment of Eldians on the mainland is something that the majority of respondents see as detestable, with 87.3% finding the use of them as war fodder to be downright cruel. A smaller amount of people either felt it was a necessary evil, or didn’t feel strongly about it one way or the other. 

Literally waiting for the 104th to show up and fuck shit up for these inhumane monsters

That's what happens in the real world. The persecuted minority gets used as war fodder.

i d k 👀

DO YOU THINK IT’S POSSIBLE FOR RELATIONS BETWEEN ELDIANS AND MARLEYANS TO IMPROVE? 123 Responses

Colorful opinions mean more colorful pie charts! Most viewers feel that there is no way for the relations between Eldians and Marleyans to improve (30.1%) or that relations will never improve, with the exception of a rare few who are sympathetic to Eldians (22.8%). A smaller amount (totalling 32.5%) feel that it’s possible for things to improve whether it be due to a change in Marleyan leadership or due to the two sides having to come together for the greater good. 14.6% of respondents stand in the middle ground, unsure of whether relations can improve or not.

ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS ON THE EPISODE?

Honestly at first it was very confusing but overall I enjoyed it

So when do we get to see the 104th again?

I figured there would be more modern technology involved in the story, but I'm not a fan at all of the direction it's going so far. Makes me worried the ultimate basement reveal was the peak of AoT's greatness.

it was action filled!!! although i was sad so see that there are 16 episodes n not like 24(i think), it means every episode is gonna deliver!!! off to a great start, op and ed are amazing. renier had a nice glow up and JEAN WAS THAT U AT THE END?? yessir!!! beast titan looked ugly asf but when was he not ugly?? LOL

Idk wtf that opening was but I kinda like the ending. Falco seems like a good kid. I just REALLY hope he doesn't end up doing anything to hurt the protagonists (I fully expect Gabi to, she's already a violent ax-crazy kid)

just give me some Armin

WHERE. IS. EREN?

WHERE DO YOU PRIMARILY DISCUSS THE SERIES? 124 Responses

Thanks again everyone for participating in the poll! We look forward to seeing your responses for next week’s episode!

[cg-onahealthjourney]

Hi everyone! It’s been a while but I’m still working on myself, working out, paying attention to what I eat, working, etc etc. 

The amazing @81welsh tagged me for an SDS so here’s a selfie from this morning after my 5k run and some other treadmill work and another one from 2 seconds ago. I don’t have much planned for the rest of the day at all. Just gonna catch up on some shows and get some rest before having to get up at 4am again tomorrow! 

A couple of days ago I weighed in at a new lowest weight, 73.1 kg (161.2 lbs) bringing me to a total loss of 39.6 kg (87.3 lbs) which still sounds unbelievable even to me lol. So close to being 40 kg down! I’m so excited about the future! Can’t wait to see where I’ll end up. Also means I’m “only” technically 8.4 kg (18.5 lbs) overweight or something anymore, which is still not ideal, but such good news to me at least! 10.4 kg to final goal weight. I could even potentially get there by Christmas this year. I’m definitely ready to do the work. That’s what matters I guess!

Long story short, I’m okay! 😋

[cassh24sg]

How PPP kept Greater Lansing nonprofits afloat

LANSING – While the COVID-19 pandemic halted social gatherings, personal work, personal schooling, and indoor eating, one thing that didn’t stop was grief.

Ele’s Place, which provides free grief counseling services to children, teens and families, had to continue to meet their customers’ needs during the pandemic, especially as personal funerals and memorial services were restricted or prohibited.

But these services are fully funded by donations and financial support, and the pandemic forced the organization to cancel large fundraising drives and move their annual 5K to a virtual race, director Kristine Kuhnert said.

Because of this, the paycheck protection program has been a lifeline for nonprofits like Ele’s Place. According to an analysis of the U.S. Small Business Administration’s PPP data, PPP loaned $ 87.3 million to 394 Greater Lansing nonprofits that kept 10,640 jobs during the pandemic.

“This PPP money held out until we could start fundraising again,” said Kuhnert. “We are 100% supported by our community.”

Ele’s Places received two PPP loans totaling $ 1 million, saved 76 jobs in the first round and 78 in the second round, according to the SBA. Eles Platz has repaid its 2020 PPP loan.

According to Kuhnert, face-to-face meetings could not be held, the peer-to-peer groups went online and staff started working remotely. She said she hoped to start face-to-face sessions in the fall and continue some virtual sessions.

“It was absolutely necessary for us to continue operations,” said Kuhnert.

So many nonprofits are doing such a great job, but the pandemic has presented them with many challenges, she said.

PPP was developed to cover payroll, mortgage or rent payments, utility or worker protection costs for COVID-19, according to the SBA. PPP ended on May 31, 2021.

Corporations and nonprofits are eligible for loan waiver if 60% is spent on payroll within the first 8 to 24 weeks of receiving the money. According to the SBA, the remaining 40% can be used for mortgage subsidies, rent or operating costs.

Those who received the loans may have to repay the full amount if they fail to meet the award criteria, according to the SBA.

More:Greater Lansing companies received $ 947 million through PPP. The money flowed here

Here’s how charitable support in Greater Lansing collapsed:

In Ingham County, 273 organizations received $ 59.9 million, saving 7,119 jobs

In Eaton County, 88 organizations received $ 23.7 million, saving 2,949 jobs

In Clinton County, 33 organizations received $ 3.7 million, which saved 572 jobs

PPP protected staff, assisted programming

The Lansing Diocese and its churches struggled as face-to-face services were canceled for months and collections to support their work dwindled.

The diocese, through its churches, schools, and charities, has the role of raising children, feeding the hungry, supporting families, and continuing to serve the religious needs of parishioners, said spokesman David Kerr.

“Much of this wonderful work has obviously been at risk from the financial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has affected most people and institutions in our community alike,” said Kerr. “Hence, PPP loans have been a blessing to help these apostolic and charitable institutions continue their essential work for the good of all, and in a way that has been genuinely resourceful as often as the need required.”

According to the SBA, the diocese received a loan of $ 971,110 through PPP to keep 85 jobs. The diocese has repaid its loan in full.

The ability to maintain operations enabled the diocese to keep their schools open for face-to-face tuition, switch to a drive-through format for their pantries, continue charitable counseling through Zoom, and assign a “call tree” for parishioners start to check each other out, Kerr said.

Religious organizations were more than a third of the non-profit organizationsin Greater Lansing, which was supported by PPP.

More:Some nonprofits in the Lansing area are weathering the pandemic, but arts organizations are struggling

Even member-funded organizations needed help.

The Michigan Education Association saw PPP as a stopgap measure to continue their advocacy services, despite questions about whether their member educators would continue to be paid during the pandemic. The MEA received a $ 6.4 million PPP loan to keep 285 jobs, according to the SBA.

“When MEA applied for the paycheck protection program, there was tremendous uncertainty as to whether public school teachers would continue to be paid during the pandemic,” spokesman David Crim said in a statement. “If payment to educators had stopped, they would have been” unable to pay the fees required for MEA to support our educators and help them deliver world class education to our students.

“When it became clear that the teachers would continue to be paid, MEA repaid the loan in full because it was right,” he added.

Which organizations have benefited most from PPP?

Ingham County:

Michigan Education Association: $ 6.4 million to maintain 285 jobs. MEA has repaid its loan in full.

Michigan Education Special Services Association: $ 6.12 million, 275 jobs preserved

Michigan Health Information Network Shared Services: $ 2.87 million, added 223 jobs

Highfields Inc .: $ 2.56 million, added 118 and 128 jobs in two rounds. Highfields has repaid its 2020 PPP loan.

Burcham Hills Retirement Center II: $ 2.3 million, 378 jobs preserved

Eaton County:

Olivet College: $ 3.75 million, 387 and 217 jobs saved in two rounds. The college has repaid its 2020 loan.

St. Vincent Catholic Charities: $ 2.99 million, adding 148 and 147 jobs in two rounds. St. Vincent has repaid its loan for 2020.

Eaton County’s Health and Rehabilitation Services: $ 2.48 million to keep 360 jobs

Michigan Virtual University: $ 2.17 million, 267 jobs saved

Michigan Crossroads Council Inc., Boy Scouts of America: $ 1.77 million, saves 154 jobs. The council has repaid its loan in full.

Clinton County:

Michigan Crossroads Council Inc., Boy Scouts of America: $ 1.41 million, added 150 jobs

Michigan Area United Methodist Camping: $ 372,863, which will keep 25 and 20 jobs over two rounds. The organization has repaid its loan for 2020.

St. Francis Retreat Center DeWitt: $ 310,496, which will save 55 and 48 jobs over two rounds. The center has repaid its loan for 2020.

St. Mary Parish Westphalia: $ 296,800, 48 jobs preserved. The community has repaid their loan.

St. Joseph Parish St. Johns: $ 273,165, saving 37 jobs

Contact reporter Craig Lyons at 517-377-1047 or calyons@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @craigalyons.

source https://www.cassh24sg.com/2021/06/27/how-ppp-kept-greater-lansing-nonprofits-afloat/

[danarglenn]

Eight High Frequency Indicators for the Economy

NOTE: I've added another indicator - the occupancy rate for office buildings with security from Kastle Systems (ht Burt). This is near the bottom. These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment - some of the sectors that will recover very slowly.

----- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration ----- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers.

Click on graph for larger image. This data shows the seven day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Blue) and 2020 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of last year for the seven day average. This data is as of Nov 1st. The seven day average is down 63% from last year (37% of last year). There has been a slow increase from the bottom. ----- Restaurants: OpenTable ----- The second graph shows the 7 day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities.

Thanks to OpenTable for providing this restaurant data: This data is updated through October 31, 2020. This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. For year-over-year comparisons by day, we compare to the same day of the week from the same week in the previous year." Note that this data is for "only the restaurants that have chosen to reopen in a given market". Since some restaurants have not reopened, the actual year-over-year decline is worse than shown. Note that dining is generally turning down in the northern states - Illinois, Pennsylvania, and New York - but holding up in the southern states. ----- Movie Tickets: Box Office Mojo -----

This data shows domestic box office for each week (red) and the maximum and minimum for the previous four years.  Data is from BoxOfficeMojo through October 92th. Note that the data is usually noisy week-to-week and depends on when blockbusters are released. Movie ticket sales have picked up slightly over the last couple of months, and were at $12 million last week (compared to usually around $150 million per week in the early Fall). Some movie theaters have reopened (probably with limited seating). ----- Hotel Occupancy: STR -----

This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. The red line is for 2020, dash light blue is 2019, blue is the median, and black is for 2009 (the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels - prior to 2020). This data is through October 24th. Hotel occupancy is currently down 31.7% year-over-year. Notes: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change. Since there is a seasonal pattern to the occupancy rate, we can track the year-over-year change in occupancy to look for any improvement. This table shows the year-over-year change since the week ending Sept 19, 2020:

Week EndingYoY Change, Occupancy Rate9/19-31.9%9/26-31.5%10/3-29.6%10/10-29.2%10/17-30.7%10/24-31.7%

This suggests no improvement over the last 6 weeks. So far there has been little business travel pickup that usually happens in the Fall. ----- Gasoline Supplied: Energy Information Administration -----

This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week last year of . At one point, gasoline supplied was off almost 50% YoY. As of October 23rd, gasoline supplied was off about 12.7% YoY (about 87.3% of last year). Note: I know several people that have driven to vacation spots - or to visit family - and they usually would have flown.   So this might have boosted gasoline consumption in the Summer and early Fall at the expense of air travel. ----- Transit: Apple Mobility ----- This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities." This is just a general guide - people that regularly commute probably don't ask for directions. There is also some great data on mobility from the Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index. However the index is set "relative to its weekday-specific average over January–February", and is not seasonally adjusted, so we can't tell if an increase in mobility is due to recovery or just the normal increase in the Spring and Summer.

This data is through October 31st for the United States and several selected cities. The graph is the running 7 day average to remove the impact of weekends. IMPORTANT: All data is relative to January 13, 2020. This data is NOT Seasonally Adjusted. People walk and drive more when the weather is nice, so I'm just using the transit data. According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is at 54% of the January level. It is at 44% in Chicago, and 57% in Houston - and declining slightly recently. ----- Office Building Occupancy ----- Note: This graph is from Kastle, and the data isn't available online to do a 7-day average. Here is some interesting data from Kastle Systems on office occupancy.

This is just a screen shot. Here is the interactive data. This data is through October 28th. Currently Office Occupancy is 27% of normal, with a low of 15% in San Francisco, and a high of 41% in Dallas. "View the average occupancy rate of commercial properties across 10 major U.S. cities, by each municipality and in aggregate, to show the pace of Americans returning to work based on daily unique access entries in Kastle-secured buildings across the nation." ----- New York City Subway Usage ----- Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage (HT BR).

This graph is from Todd W Schneider. This is weekly data for the last several years. This data is through Friday, October 30th. Schneider has graphs for each borough, and links to all the data sources. He notes: "Data updates weekly from the MTA’s public turnstile data, usually on Saturday mornings". from Calculated Risk http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/11/eight-high-frequency-indicators-for.html

[biomedres]

Perception of Palestinian Undergraduate Nursing and Midwifery Students About Professional Values: A Cross-Sectional Study - BJSTR Journals

Perception of Palestinian Undergraduate Nursing and Midwifery Students About Professional Values: A Cross-Sectional Study by  Nasser Abu-El-Noor  Biomedical Journal of Scientific & Technical Research

https://biomedres.us/fulltexts/BJSTR.MS.ID.006085.php

Background: Professional values provide a context for appraising beliefs and attitudes that guide behaviors and considered as standards for acceptable actions by professionals toward providing safe patient care. Aim: This study aimed to assess professional values among Palestinian undergraduate nursing and midwifery students and examine the relationship between students’ demographics and professional values. Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional design was used in this study. A convenient sample of 370 undergraduate nursing and midwifery students from the Islamic University of Gaza, Palestine completed an electronic version of the revised nursing professional values scale, which consists of 26 items covering five domains (caring, trust, justice, activism and professionalism). Results: Age of participants ranged between 18 and 36 years with a mean of 21.1 years. The majority of them were females (60.7%), regular students (87.3%), were enrolled in the nursing program (95.4%). The top caring statement rated by the participants was “Maintain confidentiality of patient” (4.41) while the statement “Protect rights of participants in research” received the lowest score (3.62). The mean total scores of the domains of revised nursing professional values scale ranged between 3.610 for the “professionalism” domain and 4.133 for the “justice” domain. The variables related to age, gender, grades cumulative average, study year did not impact the scores of the revised nursing professional values scale or its domains. Conclusion: This study found that professional values were relatively high among Palestinian nursing and midwifery students. Justice and caring domains were rated highest by participants, while activism and professionalism domains were rated low. These results should alert nursing educators to their roles in improving these values among nursing and midwifery students. This could be approached by empowering, role modeling and engagement of students in more activities to enhance these values.

For more articles on  Journals on Biomedical Science click here

bjstr

Follow on Twitter : https://twitter.com/Biomedres01 Follow on Blogger :https://biomedres01.blogspot.com/ Like Our Pins On : https://www.pinterest.com/biomedres/

[lornaravenbelle]

Pearl from Steven Universe! About 87.3% complete, anyways... So the drawing isn't quite done yet (and I totally forgot to get a picture of the pencil sketch), but here ya go! #myart #lrbsart #inktober2020 #pearl #stevenuniverse #stevenuniversefuture #supearl https://www.instagram.com/p/CF8k4B_lhA_/?igshid=18symgbshffsh

[ebenpink]

Using the world's most comprehensive collection of cancer data http://bit.ly/2UI0XxR

Public Health England (PHE) is proud to oversee the most comprehensive collection of cancer data in the world.

The National Cancer Registration and Analysis Service (NCRAS) collects data on all cases of cancer in England, which is then used to support public health, healthcare and research.

NCRAS publishes data on new cases of cancer and cancer survival, monitors diagnosis and treatment pathways and looks at trends and geographical patterns to help identify risk factors and potential cancer clusters.

We also work with others in the NHS to assess the quality of care for all individuals treated for cancer.

Partnerships

Working with others is key to making the most of our data. Our partnerships focus on specific areas such as our early diagnosis work with Cancer Research UK, survivorship data with Macmillan Cancer Support, and local intelligence data with the Transforming Cancer Services Team for London.

Here are some of the many ways we are using our analysis and cancer intelligence to help drive improvements in prevention, standards of cancer care and clinical outcomes for cancer patients.

Estimating cancer survival by stage at diagnosis 

For the first time, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and PHE have been able to calculate national 5-year survival by stage of cancer at diagnosis.

Before the latest release, there was limited data available for cancer survival by stage at diagnosis; however the stage at diagnosis has an impact on survival estimates.

How much difference does stage at diagnosis make?

Different cancer sites are affected differently by the stage at diagnosis. Stages of cancer range from 1 (earliest stage) to 4 (latest stage) depending on a number of factors: the tumour size; whether the lymph nodes have cancer cells; or if the cancer has spread to other parts of the body.

For 1-year survival, males with Hodgkin lymphoma saw the smallest difference across stages, where someone diagnosed in stage 1 has a 96.2% estimate of surviving, compared to 86.7% in stage 4. The largest difference is in lung cancer, where someone diagnosed with stage 1 has an estimated 87.3% chance of surviving 1 year, compared to 18.7% if diagnosed with stage 4.

Where we were able to calculate estimates for 5-year survival, the differences were larger for all cancers except for lung cancer.

The smallest difference is in men with prostate cancer, with those diagnosed in stage 1 having a 100.5% chance of surviving (estimates over 100% mean they have more chance of living 5 years compared to the general population not diagnosed with cancer) compared to a 47.7% chance of surviving 5 years if diagnosed with stage 4.

The largest difference was in women with colorectal cancer, with those diagnosed in stage 1 estimated to have a 95.2% chance of surviving 5 years, compared to 10.7% if diagnosed with stage 4.

How does this help people?

The survival estimates by stage show that patients diagnosed at an earlier stage have a higher chance of surviving up to 1 and 5 years. It also shows that the pattern of stage at diagnosis varies considerably by cancer type – for example some sites (such as breast cancer and melanoma), mainly present early while others (such as stomach and lung cancer) mainly present late.

Together, these show where most improvements in cancer survival can be made by diagnosing patients at an earlier stage.

Routes to Diagnosis:  Emergency diagnoses of cancer vary by age, sex, and deprivation

We recently published high-level data on 3 million cancers diagnosed between 2006 and 2016, grouped into eight Routes to Diagnosis.

These define the pathway to a patient’s diagnosis and include cancers detected through screening, referrals from GPs, urgent referrals where a GP suspects symptoms are caused by cancer (known as Two Week Wait referrals) and emergency presentations, such as A&E and emergency GP referrals.

Those presenting as an emergency are more likely to do so with late stage cancer, meaning they have lower survival than those seeking help through a “planned” route.

This reinforces the need for people to come forward as early as possible to maximise their chances of living better with and beyond cancer.

Although the proportion of emergency cancer diagnoses has fallen from 1 in 4 (24%) in 2006 to 1 in 5 (19%) in 2016, the total number has stayed relatively similar and is just under 60,000 diagnoses per year.

There is a steady decrease in the proportion of cases via an emergency GP referral, which may indicate more appropriate use of Two Week Wait referrals.

However, there is a concerning increase in the number of emergency cases diagnosed via A&E, with more than 7,000 extra diagnoses in 2016 compared to 2006. NCRAS is working with academic partners to better understand these different ‘sub-routes’.

Variation by patient characteristics

There is a steady increase in emergency presentations with age: overall, 41% of those aged 85+ are diagnosed as an emergency, compared to 14% of 50-59 year olds. The number of cancers in children, teenagers and young adults is relatively small, but they experience high proportions of emergency diagnoses: 53% of cancers in 0-14 year olds and 26% of cancers in 15-24 year olds.

People in the most deprived areas are more likely to present as an emergency. In 2016, 24% of cancer diagnoses in the most deprived were emergencies, compared to 16% in the least deprived.

Some of this variation is due to the different range of cancers diagnosed in these groups, but it also shows there is more work needed to support earlier diagnosis in deprived areas.

Work still to do

While there are encouraging trends, some cancers still have a high proportion of emergency presentations despite year-on-year reductions in diagnoses. Brain (49%), lung (32%), cancer of unknown primary (55%), acute myeloid leukaemia (54%) and pancreatic cancers (44%) are all most commonly diagnosed as an emergency presentation. While there have been significant reductions in these emergency presentations, there is still work to do to improve their route to diagnosis.

Diagnoses through the Two Week Wait Route increased from 25% in 2006 to 38% in 2016 and this trend shows no signs of slowing.

Other recent work

Cancer emergency presentations

As well as publishing the full Routes to Diagnosis data annually, we also publish a high-level statistical bulletin on cancer emergency presentations quarterly. The latest publication provided CCG and Cancer Alliance level data showed that the proportion of cancer patients who first presented as an emergency continues to slowly fall.

Mortality and survival of 13-24 year olds cancer

In partnership with the Teenage Cancer Trust, we published a report looking at the incidence, mortality and survival of 13-24 year olds with cancer in England.  The report showed that cancer survival rates for this age-range are improving, particularly for those with leukaemia and bone cancer.

Cancer services profile

In order to support local cancer care and service planning, we published a short statistical commentary to accompany the 2018 update of the Cancer Services Profile in the Fingertips tool. The indicators provide information on demographics, cancer screening, incidence, Two-Week Wait referrals, diagnostic services, emergency presentations and admissions by GP practice, CCG and at national level.

What’s next?

By overseeing the cancer registry, PHE continues to play a vital role in improving the quality and availability of cancer data, to help improve the lives of cancer patients and their families.

In collaboration with our partners, we will continue to use our world-class data to drive improvements in prevention, standards of cancer care and clinical outcomes.

from Public health matters http://bit.ly/2G7MAiZ via IFTTT http://bit.ly/2C6WVHu

[junker-town]

Will we get some sweet, sweet touchdowns in the Divisional Round?

We didn’t get high-scoring games on Wild Card Weekend. The second week of the playoffs should be different, though.

We got used to explosive scoring during the 2018 NFL regular season. The league set a record with 1,371 total touchdowns scored, the most ever in a season. Then the first weekend of the playoffs rolled around and it was defense that dominated. The average team scored 23.3 points per game during the regular season, but only one team reached that mark in the Wild Card Round — the Dallas Cowboys in their 24-22 win over the Seattle Seahawks.

Fear not, though. Now that we’ve reached the Divisional Round, we should get back to those sweet, sweet touchdowns that we missed last weekend.

Patrick Mahomes vs. Andrew Luck. Tom Brady vs. Philip Rivers. Jared Goff vs. Dak Prescott. Reigning Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles vs. Drew Brees.

Points, they are coming. Here are the four Divisional Round games ranked by how many touchdowns we should expect.

1. Kansas City Chiefs vs. Indianapolis Colts

The first game of the Divisional Round should feature the most offensive fireworks as the Indianapolis Colts travel to Kansas City to take on Mahomes and the Chiefs. The Chiefs finished the regular season averaging 35.3 points per game — good for first in the league.

Mahomes and Luck also finished first and second, respectively, in the league this season in touchdown passes:

Maybe next week we’ll get some touchdowns pic.twitter.com/qKqQKa8kY4

— SB Nation NFL (@SBNationNFL) January 6, 2019

Mahomes has a unique matchup with the Colts defense, which is no slouch. The Colts finished the season ranking 10th in defensive DVOA, running a ton of looks with two safeties playing deep. According to Sports Info Solutions, the Colts had more catchable passes thrown against Cover 2, Cover 2 Man, Tampa 2, and Cover 4 — the primary coverages with two-high safeties — than any other team in the league. Indianapolis gave up a passer rating of 87.3, which ranks ninth in the league among all teams using those coverages.

Mahomes is, well, uncommonly good against those two-high looks. Among all quarterbacks with at least 100 throws against the same coverage sample, Mahomes leads the league in yards per attempt (10.6), touchdown percentage (11.8%), and has the lowest interception percentage (0.7%). Mahomes also leads the league in Estimated Points Added in these scenarios with 83.8 EPA — Matt Ryan was in second place with 47.6 EPA.

The Colts have a clear advantage over the Chiefs defense, though — and it’s not just Luck. The Colts’ run game thrives when they pull one or more offensive linemen, averaging 4.8 yards per carry and 47.4 yards per game. Kansas City’s defense struggles in these scenarios, giving up 5.5 yards per carry against run plays with pulling blockers. The avenue for a Colts’ victory is to straight up steamroll the Chiefs’ defense on the ground — which is entirely possible.

Leaning on a running game to outpace the Kansas City Chiefs might not lead the Colts to victory, but it should provide the viewers with a few touchdowns.

2. Los Angeles Rams vs. Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys might have the best defense left in the playoffs. Their NFC showdown with the Rams has the potential to be a high-scoring affair, though.

Dallas has one of the strongest running games in the league, led by Ezekiel Elliot and his league-leading 1,434 rushing yards. One of the core principles of Dallas’ run game is its use of zone-blocking schemes — according to Sports Info Solutions, 320 of the Cowboys’ 439 rushing attempts were utilizing some type of zone-blocking scheme. Those runs went for 4.3 yards per carry, good for 11th in the league among all zone teams.

Los Angeles really struggled against zone runs this season, giving up a league-worst 4.85 yards per attempt. Luckily for the Rams, they also have a huge advantage over the Cowboys defense in one area.

The Rams love to use play action as part of their passing game — especially out of formations with three receivers. Los Angeles had a league-leading 183 passing attempts on play-action passes out of three-receiver sets, averaging 9.7 yards per attempt (fourth in the NFL). The Cowboys are a below average team when it comes to defending three-wide receiver sets. Dallas gives up 7.63 yards per attempt in this scenario, or just 20th in the NFL.

3. New Orleans Saints vs. Philadelphia Eagles

The last time the Saints and the Eagles met, the Saints beat them the hell down by a score of 48-7 in Week 11. The Eagles had a healthy Carson Wentz in the lineup over Nick Foles at the point, but outside of that not much has changed.

Philadelphia loves running Cover 1 and Cover 3, while the Saints absolutely shredded those coverages throughout the regular season. Against Cover 1 and Cover 3, the Saints had a passer rating of 111.5, which was second in the league behind the Seahawks. They also had a league-leading 89.5 EPA, according to Sports Info Solution.

While the Eagles love running Cover 1 and Cover 3 (295 catchable passes thrown against, second in the league), they aren’t particularly adept at covering these plays. When the Eagles ran Cover 1 and Cover 3, they gave up a passer rating of 98.01 — 20th in the league. Here comes Drew Brees. Again.

The Saints don’t exactly have a stellar defense of their own. According to Bill Connelly’s advanced statistics, the Saints ranked 25th in open-play success rate.

It’ll take a major upset for the Eagles to beat the Saints on the road, but they definitely have a chance to at least put points on the board. The Saints defense isn’t nearly as tough as the Bears defense they squeaked by in the Wild Card Round.

4. New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Tom Brady and Philip Rivers usually aren’t associated with low-scoring football games, but they just might be this weekend.

The Patriots offense in its current phase isn’t overly terrifying. Josh Gordon was indefinitely suspended by the NFL after catching 40 passes for 720 yards and three touchdowns. In the three games that the Patriots didn’t have Gordon to start the season, Brady threw for 6.4 yards per attempt, which is in line with what Josh Allen and Joe Flacco produced for the season.

Rob Gronkowski didn’t look like himself during the season either. Gronkowski averaged 52.5 yards per game, the fewest since his rookie season in 2010. Los Angeles’ defense will be a tough test for the diminished Patriots offense. The Chargers defense ranks 10th in open-play success rate.

But the Patriots also play solid defense and they’ll be at home, where they haven’t lost in over a year. The Patriots ranked sixth in opposing adjusted yards per attempt for the 2018 season. They don’t have the dominating pass defense that Baltimore Ravens do (who just held the Chargers to five field goals and one rushing touchdown), but they have enough pieces in the secondary to slow down the Chargers offense.

That means touchdowns — and points in general — might be tough to come by for both teams on a cold Sunday in New England.

[riyakhanna21]

10 Beautiful and Extravagant Farms to Visit near Delhi NCR

With holidays waiting just round the corner, the search for a perfect weekend getaway has increased many folds. If you are tired of urban life and the grind of the boring routine existence, then the countryside may be a good option for you to explore. The breath of fresh air, set amidst the unpolluted environment and breathtaking scenery, is sure to captivate your heart. Perhaps this is why it is said that the countryside refreshes you in a way such that you bounce back to your everyday life with a new lease of life!

Interesting Farm Options near Delhi

If you have decided to spend your holiday in the countryside, the next question that comes up is which of the farm stays are good and what are the amenities they offer. Here is a list of farms that can offer you the most refreshing getaway and promise to leave you with memories that will last beyond a lifetime. So let the countdown begin:

1. Prakriti farm

If you are a lover of the raw nature just as it appears in the adventure tales, then the Prakriti farm may just be the place for. Situated just a 5 hours’ drive away from Delhi. It is also situated in close proximity to another important city Chandigarh, which is merely 45 km away from it.

Ideal for a short weekend getaway, it gives you the perfect break from the hustle and bustle of family life. The accommodation options here are also pretty amazing and unique in themselves. There is also the option of staying in Luxury Swiss Tents. There is also an amazing view of the Shiwalik ranges and the staffs too are very amiable.

Distance from Delhi: 200 km

Average Cost: 5,000 for two people

2. The Ramgarh heritage Villa

An erstwhile 5-star hotel, the Ramgarh heritage villa has now been turned into a perfectly relaxed and laid back heritage villa now. Offering your breath-taking view of the entire Dhuladhar range and with the gurgling sound of the Beas to compliment it, it is the perfect haven for your weekend escapade.

This property is so highly popular that even the likes of Jawaharlal Nehru have visited it. The weather is also very pleasant compared to the dry arid conditions of Delhi.

Distance from Delhi: 507 km

Average cost: 6,000 for two people

3. Surjivan Farm

If you are not willing to travel too far or if you are in want of time, then the Surjivan farm which is located in Gurgaon itself may be the ideal option for you. At just an hour’s drive away from Delhi, the farm is located off the NH-8, better known as the Jaipur Highway.

Boasting of a vast cover of greenery along with its earthy accommodations, this palace has also won recognition from leading travel magazines. While the entire décor has been done keeping in view the rural theme of the place, there is no want when it comes to modern facilities

Distance from Delhi: 61.3km

Average cost: 4,000 for two people

4. The Kuflon Basics House

Located at about 385 km away from New Delhi in the little hamlet, Village Kuflon, UttarKashi, the farm derives its name from the village after which it has been named, the homestay boasts of a mesmerising view of the Assi Ganga Valley. Tasty home cooked fares are also served here.

If you are an adventurous soul, you may even set out on trekking tours from here, as there are many trekking routes in close proximity to the farm.

Distance from Delhi: 385 km

Average cost: 4000 for two people

5. Bannai Khera Farm

Supported by the Haryana tourism department itself, this farm sets the bench mark for sustainable farm tourism. Run by the community, here you get to experience the warmth and hospitality which is hard to find among urbanites. Though it is situated only a 1.5 hours away from West Delhi, it in a sense takes you back to the olden times with its rustic and rural India theme, which has an authentic touch to it.

Apart from this the farm also boasts of a number of exciting activities both for the adults and children. It is therefore ideal for visits with your entire family. The farm also specialises in the traditional Indian cuisines

Distance from Delhi: 87.3 km

Average Cost: 8000 for a family of 3

6. Laksh farms

Situated just 30 minutes away from Gurgaon, Laksh is perched upon a picturesque valley of the Aravalli Hills. The rolling grasslands dotted with cane chairs and thatched shades definitely make you feel very relaxed. The food at the farm is also equally sumptuous.

In this farm you do not have to worry about missing out on your important calls or emails, as the signal strength is strong and even Wi-Fi is available here.

Distance from Delhi: 58.5 km

Average cost: 4000

7. The Exquisite Pools

If you are looking for a much personalised farm experience, then the Exquisite Pools with Two Rooms may be the place for you. Catering the idea of a modern day farm, the farm features rooms that bring to you all the modern amenities that you can expect in any modern day hotels. Located just 8km away from the Qutub Minar, the property also features a sparkling pool, with deck pools by their side. The farm also offers its guests the most savoury continental food.

The Exquisite pool is also the ideal kind of property for hosting private farm parties or pool parties and other such events.

Distance from Delhi: 11 miles from Rashtrapati bhavan

Average cost: 4,500 for two people

8. House of kaapili

Located among the abundant greenery of greater Noida, this farm offers not only the goodness of nature but yoga classes to its guests. Totally steeped in the Indian tradition, this homestay is equally suitable for both the corporate travellers as well as the leisure seekers.

The property is managed by a sister duo and they try their level best to ensure that all their guests are totally comfortable and enjoying their stay in the place

Distance from Delhi: 30 km

Average cost: 6000 for one

9. The Lazy Patio

Can you imagine an entire farmhouse whose interiors boast of fine polished wood while the exteriors boast of some of the most exquisite plant species along with a giant windmill- this is what Lazy patio has to offer for you.

The food offered ranges from continental to Indian such that there is something to cater to every taste bud. The staffs are amiable and friendly, ensuring that you have the best time while staying with them.

Distance from Delhi: 2.3 km from Qutub Minar (In Huaz-khaz village)

Average cost: 5000 for two people including food

10. Kotwara Farm

If you have ever aspired to live in the celebrity style, then the Kotwara farm can help you get your dreams come true. Designed by some of the most famous designers and painters, the entire property speaks of the opulence and grandeur. The farm also boasts of a sprawling garden along with a stable. It is located along the Gurgaon Faridabad Road and can be reached in less than an hour from Delhi.

Distance from Delhi: 22 kms from the capital city

Average cost: 15,000 for two people

Farms calling for globetrotters

Spending tranquil hours of rest and repose with your friends, family, peers, or beloveds can be an event in itself. Now, that you have this handy guide right out here, start packing your bags and get going today!

Get more info about Family Vacation Tips

Source URL - https://mansirana.com/10-beautiful-and-extravagant-farms-to-visit-near-delhi-ncr/

[billehrman]

The Global Economy Needs Some Certainty

The global economy will remain stuck in the mud longer term UNLESS there are real certainties on trade, fiscal policies, Brexit, regulatory changes and the U.S Presidential elections. While the financial markets will breathe a sigh of relief and rally big time when/if Phase 1 of a trade deal is reached between China and the United States which we still expect, we doubt whether businesses and consumers will open their pockets in a meaningful way without long term solutions rather than band aids that kick the real problems down the road for another day. On the other hand, we remain convinced that monetary policy everywhere will remain overly accommodative as long as inflationary pressures remain muted which we expect for many years to come due to global competitive pressures, technological advances and the ever-increasing rise of disruptors in all sectors. Therefore, investors will have few options but to keep moving further out on the risk curve.

We continue to emphasize investing in the United States over foreign markets as our economy is dominated big time by consumer and government spending whereas other regions are much more reliant on production/exports which are being penalized by trade conflicts and the lack of fiscal stimulus. When there were fears that Phase 1 of a trade deal was in jeopardy last week, did you notice which market outperformed all others- the USA.

Let’s take a look at what occurred last week in the areas most in focus by the financial markets: trade, monetary policy, Brexit and Trump.

Trade: While rumors were running rampart that Phase 1 of a trade deal was in jeopardy last week, both China and the U.S went out of their way to dispel/dispute them commenting that both parties were working well together and hoped to conclude Phase 1 of a trade deal in a relatively short time frame. It was interesting to note that Congress passed legislation essentially supporting the rights of the protestors in Hong Kong which China did not like one bit while Trump’s administration granted Huawei more time to work with U.S companies as a sign of good faith before totally blacklisting.  It is important to note that Trump plans to hold off signing the Hong Kong legislation using it as a bargaining chip in the trade talks.

We want to again state emphatically that China needs a trade deal much more than the U.S. Their economy is rapidly decelerating and inflation is rising due to much higher food costs while companies continue to move their supply lines elsewhere jeopardizing China 2025. On the other hand, Trump realizes that he has a winning hand as our economy is moving along at a 2% clip with low inflation while China/its producers are eating virtually all of the tariffs fearing loss of business. Our government collected only $7 bullion last month from all the tariffs now in place, which adds up to an $84 billion annualized in a $21+ trillion economy or only .004% penalty…not too much.

Apple’s Tim Cook has provided Trump with a real solution on tariffs while “Making America Great Again.” Trump should offer companies a 12-18-month waiver on any tariffs if they commit to build new plants in the U.S shifting their supply chain from China. For example, Apple’s new plant in Austin will cost initially $1 billion and hire potentially 15,000 employees over the next few years while displacing Chinese production. Sounds like a win/win for the U.S while a total loss for China. Imagine the benefits to our economy if this is the model that Trump uses moving forward!

Monetary Policy: The Beige Book came out last week with few, if any, surprises. The Fed is on hold as RISKS to the U.S economy are “elevated’ as the “outlook for global economic growth and international trade were still significant which would weigh down the domestic economy.” The Fed is on hold UNLESS there is a material change in their economic outlook. Global uncertainty here and abroad has caused corporations to hold back on spending. The Fed also mentioned their commitment to buy back $60 billion/month of treasuries expanding their balance sheet which, by the way, is additional monetary ease. Interestingly, the Fed added over $103 billion to the system last week.

Christine Lagarde gave her first public speech last week as the new head of the ECB. She called on European governments to boost innovation and growth with higher rates of public investment as rising trade barriers triggered by the US/China trade war should serve as a warning to European governments to build a stronger internal market less reliant on foreign trade. Germany clearly has the most to lose from a reduction in foreign trade and must take the lead by increasing its domestic spending in a major way and encourage/permit other countries in the Eurozone to do the same.

Finally, the Bank of China lowered key rates last week to dispel fears that higher inflation would cause them not to ease further to bolster their domestic economy.

Global monetary policy will remain unusually accommodative for a very long-time due to below trend growth with minimal inflationary pressures. Investors will continue to move out on the risk curve which will benefit stocks over incredibly low interest rate bonds/cash equivalents.

Brexit: We continue to doubt that there will be hard Brexit the end of January as both the Eurozone and British economies cannot afford another leg down in growth that clearly would take place without a deal. The British vote takes place now in less than 3 weeks.

Trump: It is reinforced each day that the economy and stock market is how Trump gauges his success/failure such that we are convinced that he will not shoot himself in the head by making  foolish moves without  alternate plans ready to go to bolster his chances for reelection. Apple head, Tim Cook, has turned into a surprisingly ally and appears to be giving good advice on how best to deal with tariffs that would strengthen America and set off a domestic spending boom. It now appears to us that Biden will be the Democratic nominee as Warren/Sander’s policies have hurt their party already.

While we still expect China/US to reach a Phase 1 of a trade deal, we have become less concerned if one is not reached as tariffs have not really filtered down to the consumer nearly as much as assumed and has clearly hurt China much more than us as companies shift their supply lines at an accelerating rate. China needs a deal and soon. The United States economy and stock market remain the best house of the block with far less risk than investing abroad. We still expect the global economy to perform better next year than this year as all the monetary ease kicks in and we pass the one-year anniversary of tariffs making year over year comparisons easier.

Let’s take a brief looking at the data points that were reported last week that support/detract from our view that the U.S is doing just fine while the rest of the world remains stuck in the mud.  We DO NOT expect to see real long-lasting improvement in the global economy WITHOUT real certainty on trade, fiscal policy, Brexit and regulatory reforms. Notwithstanding global growth will be better next year than in 2019.

The USA

The vast majority of economic data points reported last week showed surprising strength: the composite PMI came in at 51.9 versus an expectation of 51.2 which was reported last month; the actual Manufacturing PMI hit 52.2 vs 51.5; the Services PMI was 51.6 vs 51.0; the Index of Consumer Sentiment rose to 96.8 from 95.5; the index of Consumer Expectations increased to 87.3 from 84.2; the Conference Board of Leading Indicators was 111.7; Coincident Indicators were 106.5 while lagging Indicators increased to 108.1; and finally, existing Home sales ran at an annualized rate of 5.460 million while building permits increased 5.0% from September to a seasonally adjusted 1.461 million units.  Pretty good numbers for sure!

While we have mentioned week after week about the huge amount of added Fed fiscal stimulus, we need to add that states have increased their spending at the fastest rate since the end of the Great Recession. State budgets have swelled to about $2.1 trillion, up nearly 4% from a year ago.

Finally, we want to mention that the huge shrink in stock  outstanding continues at a torrid pace. Stock buybacks is estimated at $570 billion next year down from an estimated $670 billion this year and $748 billion in 2018. That adds up to nearly 7% of all stocks retired in just 3 years. WOW!

China

The Chinese economy continues to decelerate at an alarming pace as production, investment and consumption are all weakening while inflation is accelerating. Don’t believe that China will be fine without a trade deal as no other country/region consumes like us. Trump really does have them if he plays his cards right and offer companies a 12-18 tariff waiver if they build here.

The Eurozone/Britain

Both economies are continuing to slow down without any turn in sight. When will Germany finally blink and use their financial strength to ease fiscally and permit other countries in the region to do the same? Brexit must be solved or kicked down the road as a hard Brexit would cause another leg down economically throughout the region. Clearly any trade deals will be viewed positively but we need long term certainty on many fronts before we declare an “All clear.”

Japan

Japan’s exports fell at their fastest pace in three years in October threatening to tip their economy into a recession. Exports fell 9.2% year over year while imports sank 14.8%. The country, interestingly, is still running a trade surplus. Japan’ lower house, ratified the limited trade deal with the U.S last week. Why invest here?

Investment Conclusions

We have not shifted our view that our market remains undervalued as the US economy is in fine shape; corporate earnings are better than expected; interest rates will remain surprisingly low for years to come as low inflation is NOT transitory; and bank capital/liquidity ratios are really strong. Even though the market has had a strong run of late, the average investor remains underweighted equities and still over weighted in bonds.

Our big change in view over the last few weeks is that we have become more confident that tariffs have not and will not stop the US economy from growing. Phase 1 of a trade deal will certainly lead to higher stock prices near-term but IS NOT the long-term solution for what ails the global economy. Consumers/Businesses need certainty that trade deals are here to stay so they can plan accordingly with confidence that is sorely missing today. The U.S is in an enviable position to be dominated by consumer and fiscal spending whereas the vast majority of the industrialized world depends on production/trade. Notwithstanding, we expect global growth to be stronger next year as monetary ease kicks in and we pass the one-year anniversary of trade conflicts.

Our portfolios continue to emphasize technology including the semis; global industrials, machinery and capital goods companies domiciled here; financials; cable with content; some retail stocks like TGT which have benefitted from new/innovative management; low cost industrial commodity companies with strong cash flow and above average rising dividends/buybacks; and many special situations where we expect managements to close the gap between current stock prices and their intrinsic values. We own no bonds and are flat the dollar.

Happy Thanksgiving to all. We have so much to be grateful for.

The weekly Investment Committee webinar will be held on Monday November 25th at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Standard Time. You can join by typing https://zoom.us/j/9179217852 into your browser.

Remember to review all the facts; pause, reflect and consider mindset shifts; look at your asset composition with risk controls; do independent research and …

Invest Accordingly!

Bill Ehrman

Paix et Prospérité LLC