#Election exit poll

[themediaflair]

What is Exit Poll?

Introduction

Election Exit polls are used all over the world to predict the probable outcome of elections. An election exit poll is a poll of voters taken immediately after they have exited the polling stations, hence the name Exit poll. When voters exit from election polling booths as their memory is fresh, they are most likely to share the truth. An exit poll asks voters which political party they are supporting after they have cast their votes in an election. These polls can be conducted face to face or online.

It is important to note that election exit polls are not conducted by any government agency. Pollsters from private companies working for newspapers or broadcasters usually conduct exit polls to gain an early indication as to how an election has turned out, as in many elections the actual result may take many hours to count.

Important parameters for a good/accurate exit poll depend on; 1. Large and diverse sample size and 2. A clearly constructed questionnaire with no bias.

[catilinas]

finished the water quilt!!! it is machine pieced (of course) but i quilted it and finished the binding by hand :-)

[a-very-tired-jew]

I think CAIR is trying to do some damage control now. They were supposed to release the exit poll for this election at 10 am ET today, but have since postponed it. Their polling and releases repeatedly state that the vote was split between Harris and Stein at around 40% each respectively. The narrative has been that the population they represent has voted Dem for the past 20 years, only because of the Islamophobia after 9/11, and they're likely trying to find out why they'd vote for a politician that has villainized Muslims in the past (Muslim ban anyone?) Yet we're seeing from other news sources that this is not the case. It was, in fact, 40% for Stein and Trump each with Gaza being the primary factor.

For example, this is from a Voice of America article on the subject.

And here is the reasoning.

Read that last part again.

As I stated in my post about my student talking politics at me, and others on this site have pointed out as well, this same sentiment has been echoed by many across social media and IRL.

It wasn't about whether or not Trump was the better option.

It was about punishing Biden, Harris, and the Dems.

It was about burning everything down to make a point.

And here's the thing, Trump's policies and views towards Gaza are markedly worse. There will likely be an escalation, there will be no "ceasefire" or "stopping the genocide" magically as these voters want, but that doesn't matter. The Dems had to be punished.

So we're going to get 4 years of absolutely shit policies, rollbacks of rights, more policies targeting minorities, and a real chance at living in an corrupt authoritarian country all because of reactionary punitive rage based reasons.

In other words, because people decided to be immature with their vote and do a "that'll show em!"

The reasoning is utterly childish.

You don't vote to punish.

You vote to progress.

You vote to help the society you live in and help make beneficial change.

Instead, ya'll decided to act like children.

And we will all suffer for it.

When CAIR does release their data I'll update here

[harmofud]

Brief notice for everyone who is doomscrolling bc they're freaking out about the election

I hear you. I understand. It's like a rock sitting in my stomach, and it is genuinely scary to see this initial outpour. But in 2020, the race wasn't called in Pennsylvania until November 10th. The electoral college votes from Georgia didn't come in until November 19th. Both Michigan and Wisconsin were red at first too, then turned to blue on November 6th.

Listen. Remember that thing Trump tweeted out that got everyone so riled up? "Stop the count" I think it was. That was because he had won according to the exit polls at the end of Nov. 5. If you're unsure what exit polls are, that's what the initial count at the end of tonight is. It is, and I mean this genuinely, sensationalized media to call the election now. It won't be done for at least a few more days, at max a week or so.

If you are US American and you voted mail-in, check the status of your ballot here. If you are watching the election from somewhere else and panicking, I know that the US election process can be really really confusing and miserable to navigate. It is entirely understandable to think that the race is over tonight, but it's not. The electoral college (that funny little institution that grants votes based on population of a state and not based on the voters themselves) hasn't called anything yet. Until they do, this election is up in the air. Google is calling things based on predictions and predictions only, but the actual electing committee has done nothing yet.

Beyond that, keeping track of everything is going to be stressful. For tonight and tomorrow, I kindly advise you avoid social media (as I should be doing). Nothing is set in stone yet, and nobody should be claiming victory even over the next few days based on tonight. The mail-ins and the early votes have not been counted yet. Just breathe and keep on keepin' on.

[taabakiera]

remember: therapy is expensive, but putting things that are wrong with you onto your ocs and having them work through it is free

[megpricephotography]

Beach Boy! Barney, jumping for joy during a trip to the beach in July of 2012.

[liamtwatter]

basically the vote is about Americans not being masochists or being...

[dont-lick-my-foot]

First wave of exit polls are in! They have noted that the first wave tends to skew a little left, but they are pointing out the significance of how the state of democracy, not the economy, has the highest percentage. Please forgive the image quality, I’m taking pictures of these as they pop up on my tv lol

Other breakdowns:

[michaelgovehateblog]

The constituency I live in has always always been a safe Tory seat as long as it has existed, and the exit poll is predicting it's gone lib dem, so if thats right, that's massive and I am very glad

[uboat53]

Okay, I need to take issue with some of the key narratives that are emerging from the 2024 election. As always, let's go to the data and look at these things, it's time for a LONG RANT (TM).

KIDS ARE NOT TURNING INTO LITTLE MAGATS

One of the biggest narratives from the election was that young people had turned against Democrats. Specifically people looked at young men being captured by the "manosphere" of influencers and, while I'll freely admit it's a real problem and we should work to address it, it doesn't appear to have done anything to the election results.

In 2020, young people (those between 18 and 29 years old) made up 17% of the electorate. Young people split 60% to 36% in favor of Biden, meaning that, of all those who voted, 6.12% of them were young people who voted for Trump. In other words, in 2020, about 9.7 million young people voted for Trump.

In 2024, young people made up 14% of the electorate. Young people split 54% to 43% in favor of Harris, meaning that, of all those who voted, 6.02% of them were young people who voted for Trump. In other words, in 2024, about 9.35 million young people voted for Trump.

In other words, young people didn't change into Trump supporters, 350,000 FEWER of them voted for him in 2024 than had voted for him in 2020. The reason it seems like young people swung toward Trump is that about 4.5 million fewer young people showed up to vote for Harris in 2024 than showed up to vote for Biden in 2020.

In other words, if you can read numbers, the conclusion from the 2024 results should not be "young people increasingly voted for Trump", it should be "the young people who voted for Trump were much more likely to show up in both elections while the Biden-supporting young people didn't show up for Harris."

OLD PEOPLE SHOWED UP FOR BOTH SIDES, BUT THERE'S GOOD NEWS FOR DEMOCRATS

The over-65 crowd, on the other hand, showed up in spades. In 2020 they comprised about 22% of the electorate for a total of about 34.5 million voters but in 2024 they comprised about 28% of the electorate for a total of about 43 million voters. That's a huge increase!

Older voters did break for Trump in both elections (by about 5% in 2020 and about 1% in 2024), but unlike most other groups, they didn't show a marked shift toward Trump. In 2024, about 3.5 million more old people showed up to vote for Trump, but about 5 million more of them showed up to vote for Harris!

In fact, old people were one of only two groups (more on that later) that actually increased their turnout in 2024 as compared to 2020, and that increase actually leaned in favor of the Democrats.

MIDDLE-AGED PEOPLE KILLED THE DEMOCRATS, BUT NOT BY CHANGING SIDES

If you're looking for the story of where things really turned, look at the middle-aged crowd, the 45-64 year olds. In 2020, about 59.5 million of them showed up to vote. They comprised 38% of the electorate, but they broke for Trump by 1%. In 2024, 53.5 million of them showed up and they comprised 35% of the electorate, but they broke for Trump by 10%!

This isn't a story of changing votes, though, 6.5 million fewer of the middle-aged folks may have showed up to vote for Harris than showed up to vote for Biden, but about 750,000 fewer of them showed up to vote for Trump in 2024 than had showed up in 2020. Again, the data seems to show more voter apathy than it does anyone actually changing sides.

AFRICAN AMERICANS AREN'T TURNING AGAINST DEMOCRATS

Again, we see the same thing when we look at African-Americans, a huge concern that African-American men are turning to Trump. And yet, when we look at the data, Trump got about 250,000 FEWER African-American votes in 2024 than he did in 2020. Unfortunately for Democrats, that reduction in Trump votes was swamped by the over 3 million fewer African-Americans who showed up to vote for Harris than had showed up for Biden in 2020.

Again, an accurate reading of the numbers here is not that "African-Americans are getting more conservative/Trumpy", it's that "African-Americans who supported Trump were more likely to show up in both elections than African-Americans who had supported Biden in 2020."

LATINOS, AT LEAST, ARE COMPLICATED

Latinos, at least, are more complicated than African-Americans and young people. We did actually see a big increase in Latino support for Trump between the 2020 and 2024 elections. Specifically, about 1.25 million more of them voted for Trump.

Of course, over 4.6 million fewer of them voted for Harris than had voted for Biden, which means that two and a half times as many Latinos stayed home as changed their vote even if we assume that they were all the same voters.

There's certainly an argument to be made that many Latinos switched sides between the two elections and I'm sure that'll be fodder for lots of debate about how to communicate with and persuade Latino voters, but the bigger story that I see is, again, that a huge amount of them stayed home rather than voting at all.

WHITE VOTERS ACTUALLY LEANED MORE TOWARD DEMOCRATS

In 2024, about 1.25 million more white people voted for Trump than had voted for him in 2020, but about 2.8 million more white people voted for Harris than had voted for Biden in 2020. You won't hear much about this, but white people actually shifted toward Democrats rather than away from them.

Also, white people were also the only other group I could find whose turnout in raw numbers actually increased between 2020 and 2024. They still went for Trump by a margin of 15% (as opposed to 17% in 2020), but this shift actually went in Democrat's favor.

FOR ALL THE TALK ABOUT MEN, LOTS OF WOMEN REALLY DID CHANGE SIDES!

This one's really interesting. In 2024, about 175,000 fewer men voted for Trump than in 2020 and about 3 million fewer men voted for Harris than had voted for Biden in 2020. In general, you could say that men didn't really switch what side they supported, a lot of them just stayed home, mostly those who supported Democrats.

As far as women, though... in 2024, about 3.35 million fewer women voted for Harris than had voted for Biden in 2020, but about 2.5 million MORE women voted for Trump than had voted for him in 2020!

In fact, of every group I could find, women were the only group where more of them changed sides to vote for Trump than stayed home.

THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM

Of course, for all the talk about Democrat's problems with minority and young voters, we miss the big picture. White people made up 67% of the 2020 electorate and 71% of the 2024 electorate and Democrats lost them by 17% and 15% respectively. Those between 45 and 64 made up 35% of the electorate in 2020 and 38% in 2024, the largest age group in both elections, and Democrats lost them by 1% and 10%, respectively. Men made up 48% and 47% of the electorate in 2020 and 2024 and Democrats lost them by 8% and 12% respectively

Having substantial deficits among these massive demographic segments of the electorate that you then have to make up for with absurd margins among much smaller segments of the electorate makes people do really crazy analyses. It makes people over-analyze a 15% swing among Latino voters or a 13% swing among young voters when a 2% swing among white voters actually shifted almost as many votes.

Ultimately, if only women or young people or minorities voted, Democrats would win in a landslide. We talk about them because we don't want to address the elephant in the room which is that men, white people, and older people voting for Republicans is what really kills the Democrats; women, minorities, and young people just sometimes push enough to give them a change.

CONCLUSIONS, AKA ACTUAL RESULTS FROM THE DATA

Look, from my quick analysis, there are really only 5 storylines that are supported by the data.

First, there was a decline in voting pretty much across the board and that decline hit Harris hard. Almost every group saw a decline in absolute numbers between 2020 and 2024 and in every single group, Harris' decline from Biden's total was larger than Trump's decline. In fact, only two groups saw an increase in their numbers and both in a very interesting way which brings us to our next 2 storylines.

Storylines #s 2 and 3 are about older voters, those over 65, and white voters. These were the only two groups from which more people voted in 2024 than in 2020 and, interestingly, both groups were also the only two groups in which Harris did better percentage-wise than Biden did. Both of these groups have been bastions of Republican support and Trump still won white voters by 15% in 2024, but the fact that he lost 2% of his margin among white voters and his margin among older voters shrank to only 1% tells me that something interesting is going on there. These are huge groups, white voters are about 70% of all voters and older voters are between 20% and 30% depending on the election, significantly larger than African-Americans (~12%) or Latinos (also ~12%), so if Democrats could even shift the margin a few percentage points among them in future elections they could put victory out of reach for Republicans.

Storyline #4 is Latinos. Tons of Latinos stayed home in 2024 who had showed up in 2020, just like pretty much every other non-white, non-old group, but Latinos are also one of only two groups where Donald Trump's absolute number of votes increased between the two elections. Now, more Latinos stayed home than switched camps, but the numbers are still substantial and may have been decisive in key states like Arizona and Nevada. In fact, it would be the most significant shift in this election if it weren't for one other.

And that leads us to Storyline #5, the biggest one: women. I'll admit, I was really surprised to see this because of all of the focus on men and sexism in general, but women saw the largest increase in actual numbers that voted for Donald Trump. In fact, they were the only group for whom the increase in Trump voting outnumbered the people who just stayed home in 2024. Over 2.5 million more women voted for Donald Trump in 2024 than voted for him in 2020, larger than his margin of victory in the national popular vote. I don't have the numbers in specific key states to prove this, but if Harris had won women at the same rate Biden had, it's quite plausible that she would have won the 2024 election even with her decline in vote share among other demographic groups.

So if I were a Democratic strategist right now, I wouldn't be freaking out about the "manosphere", at least, not as far as men are concerned; I'd be freaking out about women. Women, more than any other group, shifted in a bad way and, while I'd be worried about Latinos as well, I'd be devoting almost all of my effort to figuring out what I could do to get women back on the team. Other than that, I'd see about devoting some resources to white voters and the over 65 crowd. Maybe this shift was a one-time deal, but if this is a sign that there's a message that can win them over, it's worth investing some time in.

[merlyns-corner]

This is out of my curiosity and my nerd brain. I'm curious about how Tumblr voted or didn't vote in the 2024 presidential election. Please reblog for a larger sample size. This poll is anonymous, and the only way you would reveal your stance or who you voted for would be to reblog with your opinions or comment under the post. I would like to make it very clear that I will remove comments that attack each other, so please be mindful of that as well. Please keep it somewhat civil! This is also my own form of an exit poll because it has more options for answers and is even more anonymous. I will not be using this for any other purpose other than curiosity. Also, if you send hate my way, I will not hesitate to block you and even report you if it's truly vulgar.

Additionally, in the worst case scenario, if the comments get too hateful and vulgar I will turn off comments to protect my mental health and the mental health of others. I don't want to instigate any doom scrolling through the comments. I know what that can do to myself mentally and I can only imagine what it can do to others. Please try to be civil as possible.

[puppetsoftomorrow]

not all the seats are in yet but this was the bbc exit poll:

and this is the real results:

they were wildly out on reform - predicted to get 13, got 4 - and a little under on the greens, predicted 2 and got 4 - but otherwise its incredibly accurate. they'll learn from this time and hopefully make it even more accurate next time

[squid-in-space]

biggest gain in seats since 1945

lowest Tory share since 1832

Reform with more seats than SNP

people are calling this the most significant election since at least 1979

This is not perfect (understatement (!)) by any stretch of the imagination and yes it's only a prediction

But

The Tories are out

happy independence day guys

[politicalfeed]

NBC FINAL EXIT POLLS Part 1:

[seenthisepisode]

right wing parties in Poland getting a combined 93.3% in the exit polls 😭 the left got 6.6% and i cannot really with good faith call them real leftists but for the sake of this post let's say they are because you can't really call them right wing either... i love my country 🥲

[ishouldbedoingalright]

only 2 seats for green is honestly appalling