#Japanese Intervention in Russia

[world-v-you-blog]

The Uses of History, 28 – What Good Are Revolutions?, 3

The Russian Revolution of 1917 passed through two distinct iterations. The first was a precarious attempt at Social Democracy which was severely handicapped by the effort to keep Russia involved in World War I. Throughout this period, from March to November 1917, the Duma never achieved stable control. It faced constant challenge from the radical parties, but especially the Bolsheviks led by…

[mariacallous]

Northern Russia must have felt bitterly cold to U.S. soldiers, even though nearly all were from Michigan. On Sept. 4, 1918, 4,800 U.S. troops landed in Arkhangelsk, Russia, only 140 miles from the Arctic Circle. Three weeks later, they were plunged into battle against the Red Army among towering pine forests and subarctic swamps, alongside the British and French. Ultimately, 244 U.S. soldiers died from the fighting over two years. Diaries of U.S. troops paint a harrowing picture of first contact:

We run into a nest of machine-guns, we retire. [Bolsheviks] still shelling heavily. Perry and Adamson of my squad wounded, bullet clips my shoulder on both sides. … Am terribly tired, hungry and all in, so are the rest of the boys. Casualties in this attack 4 killed and 10 wounded.

These unlucky souls represented just one prong of the sprawling and ill-fated Allied intervention in the Russian civil war. From 1918 to 1920, the United States, Britain, France, and Japan sent thousands of troops from the Baltics to northern Russia to Siberia to Crimea—and millions of dollars in aid and military supplies to the anti-communist White Russians—in an abortive attempt to strangle Bolshevism in its crib. It’s one of the most complicated and oft-forgot foreign-policy failures of the 20th century, captivatingly retold in technicolor detail by Anna Reid in her new book, A Nasty Little War: The Western Intervention Into the Russian Civil War.

The specifics of the conflict, which Reid brilliantly weaves alongside personal diaries from the participants, often feel otherworldly. Japanese troops occupied Vladivostok in Russia’s Far East. The mercurial French—at first the most hawkishly pro-intervention out of all the Allies—led the occupation of southern Ukraine, tussling with the Reds over cities now familiar to readers: Mykolaiv, Kherson, Sevastopol, Odessa. The British—who invested the most in the intervention, including 60,000 troops—were crawling all over Russia’s fringes: defending Baku from the oncoming Turks, conducting naval sabotage against the Bolsheviks in the Baltics, and ultimately evacuating the Whites from Black Sea ports as they crumbled in the face of a Red Army onslaught.

The disturbing question hanging over Reid’s excellent book is whether the West is doomed to repeat history. The intervention failed, and if you squint hard enough, today’s intervention in Ukraine may appear similarly futile in the face of a vast and determined Russia with a seemingly endless well of materiel, manpower, and political will. It’s what the far-right flank of Republicans in Congress, Viktor Orban in Hungary, and former U.S. President Donald Trump would lead you to believe. A sense of hopelessness articulated by Edmund Ironside, the British commander of Allied forces in northern Russia during the intervention: “Russia is so enormous that it gives one a feeling of smothering.”

But despite the strong historical echoes, the differences between the two interventions are more instructive than their similarities. A close study poses perhaps an even bigger question: What conditions make for a successful foreign intervention? Yes, the Allies bungled things, but in fairness, they mostly failed because of what was out of their control, rather than what was in it. The most limiting factor was their feckless (and noxious) White Russian allies, a disparate group of anti-Bolshevik socialists and incompetent former Tsarist officers who were Great Russian autocrats at heart. They had the buy-in of neither the Russian population nor, critically, Tsarist Russia’s tapestry of ethnic minorities—from Ukrainians to Balts—whom they sought to restore under Russia’s heel.

The circumstances today are much more favorable. The United States and Europe have a unified and determined partner in Volodymyr Zelensky’s Ukraine, in a struggle with blinding moral clarity. Russia’s economy may be on wartime footing, but collectively the West has significantly more resources at hand. And the task—defending a motivated Ukraine against a hostile invasion—is much less ambitious than trying to topple the government of the largest country in the world. A sober comparison of the two interventions should, in fact, fortify Western resolve that it can see Ukraine through—as long as its own political will, waning now as it did in Western capitals then, doesn’t get in the way.

The critical ingredients of any foreign intervention are clear and achievable objectives, reliable allies on the ground, an assailable adversary, material means, and the political will to finish the job. On nearly every measure, the Allied intervention in Russia was fatally lacking.

Perhaps most striking about Reid’s narrative is that it’s often unclear what exactly the Allied troops were meant to do in Russia. Yes, all Western governments loathed Bolshevism and feared its expansionist and infectious potential. But beyond that, there was little in the way of shared strategy or purpose. In fact, Western troops were initially sent to guard railways and Allied military stores in northern and eastern Russia that they feared would reach German hands. But this was slightly complicated after Germany surrendered in November 1918. As George F. Kennan put it in his masterful volume The Decision to Intervene, the “American forces had scarcely arrived in Russia when history invalidated at a single stroke almost every reason Washington had conceived for their being there.”

Zealous British officers on the ground—egged on by hawkish ministers at home such as War Secretary Winston Churchill, who nearly depleted his own political capital advocating for the quixotic Russian adventure—soon took the initiative to actively intervene and fight the Reds. In other arenas, including southern Ukraine, the mission was clearer in support of the local White forces—though France quickly lost heart and sailed home in April 1919 after it suffered a series of setbacks and mutinies.

Encapsulating this ambiguity were instructions for the U.S. military intervention written personally in a July 1918 memo by President Woodrow Wilson, who was characteristically tortured by the decision and “sweating blood over what is right and feasible to do in Russia.” He opened the memo by warning that military intervention would “add to the present sad confusion in Russia rather than cure it”—yet then committed U.S. troops to aid the Czech Legion operating in Siberia and to northern Russia to “make it safe for Russian bodies to come together in organized bodies in the north.” Hardly clarifying stuff.

U.S. officers took these instructions quizzically. Gen. William Graves, in charge of the 8,000 doughboys in Siberia, was decidedly skeptical about the United States playing a role in the conflict and interpreted Wilson’s instructions as permitting him only to guard railways, not fight the Reds. He later wrote in his memoirs that he had no idea what Washington was trying to achieve. This was all to the chagrin of his more pro-interventionist British colleagues in Siberia, who instead proactively aided the Whites’ monstrously incompetent “supreme ruler,” Adm. Alexander Kolchak, a former head of the Russian Black Sea Fleet who incongruously found himself fighting deep in landlocked Siberia. (He was also, incidentally, a dead ringer for current Russian President Vladimir Putin.)

Which brings us to the White Russians. Perhaps the sine qua non of any foreign intervention, especially one as ambitious as the Western intervention in both Ukraine and in the Russian civil war, are allies on the ground. It’s the difference between the chaos that followed Western intervention in Libya and the successful intervention in the Balkans. On this score, the Whites failed miserably.

It’s hard to know where to begin. Beyond Kolchak, there was the overmatched Gen. Anton Denikin leading White forces in southern Russia, who dissembled to Allied governments about the horrific pogroms against the Jewish population of Ukraine perpetrated by Whites under his watch. And beyond operating across an impossibly large and disconnected front covering the entire periphery of Russia—a country of 11 time zones—the different White factions acted essentially as warlords, with little loyalty or coordination among them.

Just as fatal to the Whites was a conspicuous vacancy: any coherent or compelling ideology. Antony Beevor, in his fabulous new history of the Russian civil war, pins the White loss on both their lack of political program and fractious nature: “In Russia, an utterly incompatible alliance of Socialist Revolutionaries and reactionary monarchists stood little chance against a single-minded Communist dictatorship.”

Contrast all this with the Reds. They controlled the industrial heartland of Moscow and St. Petersburg, operating from the inward out with stronger interior lines of communication. It allowed Commissar Leon Trotsky—who, Reid notes, “blossom[ed] into a war leader of near-genius: shrewd, decisive and boundlessly energetic”—to hop on his armored train to shore up flagging fronts as the Whites advanced from the east and south. The Bolsheviks—though enacting ruinous economic policies and initiating the first waves of terror at home—were motivated and possessed a clear ideology that held, at least at that juncture, some appeal to the local population.

And, fundamentally, their will was much stronger than the Whites’ or the West’s. After the devastation of World War I, Allied governments feared the spread of Bolshevism but couldn’t bring their exhausted publics along with them. Here, the historical echoes are most troubling. Public support understandably flagged, and budgetary pressures mounted. As Britain’s Daily Express put it in 1919, in echoes of today’s Republican rhetoric in the United States: “Great Britain is already the policeman of half the world. It will not and cannot be the policeman of all Europe. … The frozen plains of Eastern Europe are not worth the bones of a single British grenadier.” Rolling White setbacks in Siberia and southern Russia were the nail in the coffin. Then, as now in Ukraine, foreign political support for intervention depended most on the sense of momentum on the battlefield.

The job of foreign-policy makers is to distinguish between what is in versus out of their control. To the degree that they intuit favorable conditions—allies, geography, the enemy’s vulnerability—then the task is to focus on and optimize the things they can manage: strategy and objectives, mobilizing political will, providing the materiel to support the effort, and coordinating with allies.

Despite the current pall of pessimism pervading Western capitals, today’s war in Ukraine presents some of the more propitious circumstances a policymaker could hope for—unlike those faced by the Allies during the Russian civil war. Ukraine is a worthy and competent ally, fighting to defend its territory with a highly motivated population behind it. The Ukrainian cause is a righteous one, with a Manichean quality to it easily explained to Western publics. While Putin’s personal will to win is strong, it’s clear by his actions and hesitancy to fully mobilize Russian society that he senses a ceiling on what he can ask from his population. Though Russia’s manpower and materiel are larger than Ukraine’s, the amount needed to keep Ukraine armed and in the fight is completely manageable. A $60 billion aid supplement from the United States—currently held up by far-right Republicans in the House of Representatives—is a pittance compared with the returns: holding the line on international norms; standing up for the Ukrainians and, in doing so, Western values; bogging down Russia in a strategic sinkhole and reducing its capacity to threaten the rest of NATO’s eastern flank; and fortifying the trans-Atlantic alliance. Today, Western capitals are much more united than they were in 1918, and defense coordination among them is strong. Though they can sharpen the shared sense of an endgame in Ukraine, everybody knows that the conflict will end in some sort of negotiated settlement—the questions will be on whose terms.

If the United States and its allies can avoid the pitfalls of the Western intervention in the Russian civil war—developing a clear long-term strategy, continuing to coordinate closely, and reinforcing domestic support by making the case to their own populations—then they have a real shot of prevailing over Putin. Given the auspicious conditions, the main, perhaps only obstacle to long-term success is the political will to see the job through.

[playitagin]

Triple Intervention

The Tripartite Intervention or Triple Intervention (三国干渉, Sangoku Kanshō) was a diplomatic intervention by Russia, Germany, and France on 23 April 1895 over the harsh terms of the Treaty of Shimonoseki imposed by Japan on the Qing dynasty of China that ended the First Sino-Japanese War.

[if-you-fan-a-fire]

“On 25 September the Politburo called on its embassies in the region for an accurate update. They were firmly told:

“[D]o not undertake any steps and do not give any explanations without instruction from Moscow.” 

Two months later Stalin wrote to Commissar for Military and Naval Affairs Kliment Voroshilov reminding him that the Japanese issue was both “complicated” and “serious”. The outlook was bleak. Tokyo was evidently in pursuit of not only Manchuria “but also Beijing”, intent on forming a government to counterpose to Nanjing. “Moreover”, Stalin continued, “it is not to be excluded and is even likely that it will reach out to our Far East and possibly also to Mongolia.” Japan might not move against the Soviet Union that winter, but in the future 

“it could make such an attempt. The wish to reinforce its position in Manchuria would push it in that direction. But it will only be able to reinforce its position in Manchuria if it succeeds in fostering hatred between China and the USSR.” 

That would require it to help Chinese warlords seize the CER, Outer Mongolia and Russia’s maritime province, putting in place puppets totally dependent upon Japan. Stalin defined Japanese aims as fourfold: 

(a) to safeguard Japan against “the Bolshevik infection”;

(b) to render a rapprochement between the USSR and China impossible;

(c) to create for itself an extensive economic and military base on the mainland; and

(d) to make this base self-sufficient for war with America.

Without such a plan Japan would find itself “face to face with American militarisation, China in revolution, and a rapidly growing USSR pushing towards the open sea”. The Japanese believed that waiting a couple of years inevitably meant that they would leave it too late to pre-empt disaster. Only the failure of the United States to act (which Stalin thought unlikely), the failure of the Chinese to mobilise against Japan (which he also thought unlikely), the failure of a powerful revolutionary movement to emerge in Japan (no sign of this so far) and the failure of the Soviet Union itself to take preemptive military and other measures would make it possible to carry out their plans.

At the end of March 1932 the Soviet ambassador in Tokyo, Alexander Troyanovsky, advised Moscow that Japan’s general staff were convinced that neither the United States nor the USSR was willing or able to fight, but that in due course they might become so. Hence Japan had to move quickly. He warned Moscow that the “slightest change in the international situation” might easily result in “dragging us into a war”. Apparently it was only the intervention of Japan’s navy—which had the Americans always in its gunsights—in the form of Admiral Kato that forestalled precipitate military action against the Soviet Union. Looking back years later Molotov recalled how at that time in the Far East security was “neglected and the Soviet Union could undoubtedly expect many surprises”.

In response to the threat, and with the first fruits of industrialisation to hand, the build-up of Soviet forces in the region was intensive. Within four months, as of January 1932, the number of men stationed in the Soviet Far East had risen from 42,000 to 108,610; of planes, from 88 to 276; and of tanks, from 16 to 376. But much more would be needed in the event of war. Late in April 1932 Comintern Secretary Karl Radek let it be known 

“that the Soviet Government were getting extremely anxious about the position in Manchuria and feared war with Japan in the near future … He was convinced that if hostilities did break out Poland and Roumania would come in on the side of Japan. This would lead to complications in Europe to which it was impossible to forsee any limit.” 

This was clearly an oblique reference to the Rapallo relationship and what Germany might do if the Russians were at war with Poland. 

Radek added that Moscow 

“had spent milliards of roubles in the last seven months to prepare against a danger it foresaw from the outset of the conflict. These preparations had strained the country’s resources, and compelled the government to alter its five-year plan. The whole programme for the metallurgical industry had been changed owing to production for war purposes. They had stored enough stocks of corn to feed the army for a year, and this and the necessity for transporting supplies to the Far Eastern army accounted for the present food shortage [famine] and general tightening of conditions.” 

Radek insisted that they would “remain strongly on the defensive” as the five-year plan’s completion was the highest priority “and would not shed the blood of the workers for any material interests in Manchuria. If there were a genuine revolutionary movement there, that of course would be a different matter.” Japan’s refusal on 13 December 1931 to accept the Soviet offer of a non-aggression pact confirmed existing fears.

Worried as they all undoubtedly were, Stalin none the less had a problem restraining subordinates in the Far East, whose escapades held dangerous implications for Soviet security. In the summer of 1932 a sabotage unit of the OGPU made up of ethnic Koreans was sent into Korea to blow up railway bridges. Hearing of the operation, Stalin called on Lazar Kaganovich for the punishment of those concerned:

“Speak to Molotov and take draconian measures against offenders from OGPU and the Fourth Directorate (it is entirely possible that these people are agents of our enemies in our midst.) Demonstrate that there [in the Far East] Moscow still has the power to punish offenders.” 

Other such provocations also prompted outbursts from Stalin: 

“It is clear that such issues and ‘incidents’, which carry the risk of ‘suddenly’ unleashing a war, must be handled, down to the tiniest details, by Moscow alone.”

Japanese expansion into Inner Mongolia in January–February 1933 certainly kept the Russians on their toes. In April 1933 Lieutenant Colonel Suzuki of the Japanese Bureau of Military Affairs told the Marquis Kido Kōichi, the emperor’s closest advisor, that 

“there are two kinds of enemies, an absolute enemy and a relative enemy. Since Russia aimed to destroy the national structure of Japan, he cited Russia as the absolute enemy.” 

The Russians were both an old geopolitical rival and a new revolutionary interloper. The Comintern was, of course, trying its best to destroy the monarchy and empire, though in Japan itself it never had any chance of success. In 1931 more than 280 members of the party (including the leadership and the Tokyo district chiefs) had been arrested in two waves, on 15 March and 16 April.”

- Jonathan Haslam, The Spectre of War: International Communism and the Origins of World War II. Princeton & Oxford: Princeton University Press, 2021. p. 98-101.

[palmoilnews]

GRAINS-Ample supply pushes wheat towards lowest levels since 2020 CANBERRA, March 27 (Reuters) - Chicago wheat futures retreated on Wednesday towards 3-1/2-year lows as traders dismissed concerns that exports from top supplier Russia would be disrupted. Soybean and corn futures also fell amid plentiful supply as the markets looked ahead to data on U.S. planting and grain stocks due on Thursday that could move prices. FUNDAMENTALS The most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Wv1 was down 0.6% at $5.40-1/2 a bushel by 0014 GMT, while CBOT soybeans Sv1 fell 0.4% to $11.94-1/4 a bushel and corn Cv1 slipped 0.6% to $4.29-3/4 a bushel. All three contracts are near their lowest levels since 2020 and speculators have bet heavily on further declines. Wheat advanced to $5.67 on Monday, the highest levels since March 4, as a dispute between Russian authorities and a leading export company held up shipments. Also, creating supply concerns were Russian attacks on infrastructure in Ukraine, another large grain exporter, and accusations that Kyiv helped arrange a terror attack in Moscow. But those worries have faded in the face of huge volumes of wheat still emerging from Russia, which expects a third consecutive large harvest this year and could set a new March shipping record of 5 million tons this month. CBOT wheat fell earlier this month to $5.23-1/2, the lowest level since August 2020. Commodity funds were net sellers of CBOT corn, soybean and wheat futures contracts on Tuesday, traders said. Elsewhere, soft wheat exports from Europe were slightly down on last year's pace and soybean imports into Europe were roughly unchanged from last year, EU data showed. Ahead of a U.S. planting report on Thursday, grain market analysts predict U.S. corn and wheat plantings will fall in favour of soybeans. In Brazil, consultancy hEDGEpoint lowered its forecast for the nation's 2023-24 corn crop to 119.1 million metric tons from 121.5 million. Brazil's soybean exports are expected to reach 13.49 million metric tons this month, grain exporters lobby group Anec said. South African farmers are expected to harvest 13.26 million metric tons of maize (corn) in 2024, down from 16.43 million the season before, the government's Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) said. MARKETS NEWS Wall Street turned modestly lower in late trade on Tuesday while the yen hovered near 2022 intervention levels after more official Japanese jawboning to deter shorting of the currency since last week's monetary policy tightening.

[volixia669]

X-Files and Metaphor

"It was then, I saw exactly what was killing us"

From Johanson, who incidentally did not specify what was killing his crewmates.

And I believe that line was intentional, even if some of the metaphor was due to later historical events.

But first! Some context!

Piper Maru came out in early 1996, 5 years after the gulf war. The war itself that Johanson fought in was WW2.

In the years between WW2 to 1996, there's been many wars and conflicts. Why? Well, either as proxy wars against Russia, or in order to advance imperialistic, colonialist, incentives. Just five years prior to the episode airing was the gulf war, notoriously involving oil in the motivations, and two "interventions" (Somalia and Haiti) ended the year before the episode aired.

Its also important to note the Piper Maru was believed to have contain a third atom bomb intended for the Japanese.

Johanson does also mention regret over the Japanese who died.

So, what is the point of all these quotes and context? Weeeeell...

What Johanson literally saw was the black oil alien infecting his crewmates.

But what was actually killing them? Was what brought them out there. The US war machine. Sure, World War 2 was a world war, but if the US hadn't been determined to test its new weapon on the Japanese people, if it hadn't decided three horrific weapons were a good idea, then they wouldn't have been there.

I believe its up for interpretation if the black oil was intended to be used as a bio weapon, or if the whole thing was a cover story, and it was just supposed to be a transport vessel.

But here's the other interesting thing. The visual metaphor. At the time there was only one recent war relating to oil, but it had lasting impacts on politics.

And while they couldn't have predicted it, these days, US involvement in the middle east is synonymous with its greed for oil.

That it continues to work as a metaphor, within the show and outside it is just (chef's kiss)

Bonus! Additional quotes from "Tunguska" that felt relevant

"Wars have broken out over far, far, less Mr. Skinner"

"2,000 time the bomb that hit Hiroshima"

[sov-hobby-blog]

World building for my story: assault to the sky

The rise of the eurasian block and the decline of the us empire

Most historians agrees that the eurasian block began after the eastern European troubles of 2022-2025 and the csto unification bringing Russia back to its soviet era borders and the rise of zyuganov who created a socialist market economy with close bonds to china. The rise of the new power and the collapse of the European union brought to Europe the times of the great strife (2025-2028)where a series of civil war broke out in all of Europe. As nato was still a thing the United states and allies intervened in Europe in an attempt to suffocate the revolutions but where mostly unsuccessful as the restored union,China,North Korea and Iran dumped a lot of old stock to the various organizations fighting against Nato. As the second trump presidency start nato jointly withdraw from Europe allowing it to be incorporated in the restored union,seeing no reason to remain separated the union united with China,North Korea and Iran creating the Eurasian peoples Republic (also know as the eurasian block or simply as eurasia)(2030) with Iran as an hig autonomy zone. As trump disbanded nato and recalled American soldiers at home due to growing unrest and the collapsing American economy the eurasian block saw little reason to stop its war of liberation pushing in the middle east with the support of Lebanon Iraq and Syria,destroying Israel in a matter of days,the USA intervention in the conflict happend as eurasian forces pushed in Saudi Arabia in a bid to guarantee some oil after they where forced to give up the one in Syria,the untied states was severally defeated with a staggering 90% casualty rates among American troops. Meanwhile the eurasian Republic pushed also in south Korean and Taiwan taking the long longed for island and re unifying the Korean peninsula. As usa interests in the region became more and more in danger and as laos and Vietnam joined eurasia the entire might of the American army and its Australian, Canadian and Japanese allies was brought against the block,the war lasted 5 years many in wich nuclear annihilation was almost granted,but then the war came to an end as Japan capitulated and the crisis in the United states became unbearable for its people,a civil war broke out in the nation and the government was couped by a far right nationalist group known as the silver eagles. This was the nail in the coffin for the capitalist order outside of North America.

[mzemo0]

“The Worst is Yet to Come”— Recession 2023 & the Looming Uncertainty

Recession 2023 is just around the corner. The global economic crises are now inducing the certainty of a looming recession. Economists and financial organizations warned of upcoming uncertainty; however, regrettably, the world failed to decode the uprising of the economic catastrophe. 

Today’s economies around the globe are confronting an urgent economic crisis and are on the brink of a recession. And, the experts fear the worst is yet to come!

Shear Impact on Leading Economies – US, UK, China, and India

“Global growth is slowing sharply, with further slowing likely as more countries fall into recession. My deep concern is that these trends will persist, with long-lasting consequences devastating for people in emerging markets and developing economies”  

WORLD BANK GROUP PRESIDENT DAVID MALPASS

For the first time since 2009, the US declared negative GDP growth two quarters in a row, which officially qualifies as a recession.

The British Pound is at its historic low of $1.038 against US dollars due to rare emergency interventions. Cities and states in China are still in lockdown because of a rise in Covid-19 cases. On the other hand, Indian Rupee is at its 75-year low of Rupees 82.11 against the US dollar, soaring the hike in repo rates to 5.90%. 

Srilanka already declared insolvency earlier this year. Russia and Ukraine war had already set the stage for World War III. And the recent resilience of china on Taiwan has tarnished the world economic environment. 

All these together indicate the harsh truth: Recession 2023 will worsen the conditions of all major economies and push the globe into undefined circumstances like:

Central banks hiking the interest rates

Hike in energy and food prices

Depreciation of major currencies against the dollar

Central Banks Hiking the Interest Rates  

To counteract rising inflation and the impact of a strong currency on the economies, central banks are hurriedly raising interest rates. This happens as the US Federal Reserve keeps up its aggressive interest rate hikes.

On the other hand Reserve Bank of India is also struggling with persistently high inflation, which is made worse by geopolitical unrest, droughts, and supply-chain disruptions. 

Hike in Energy and Food Prices

Russia is the world’s third-largest oil-producing country. It provides 7-8 million barrels of crude oil per day, or 14% of global production, to international markets. 

The US and UK’s restrictions and many other nations’ decisions to stop purchasing Russian petroleum have exacerbated the crisis.

Russia and Ukraine are the biggest sunflower oil producers globally and the second most frequently used cooking oil. However, sunflower oil cannot yet be exported from Russia due to the tightening of import restrictions. 

Plus, due to the increasing demand for sunflower oil in the market, other edible oils are now more expensive, raising the cost of food and other products across borders.

Depreciation of Major Currencies Against the US Dollar 

Compared to the US dollar, the Japanese yen has dropped to its lowest level since August 1998. The Indian rupee is hitting its lowest in history, and for the first time in 20 years, the euro is now lower than the USD.

The decline of major currencies indicates the current state of the global economy. Moreover, it provides a crystal-clear forecast of how disastrous the recession 2023 would be if significant steps are not taken to control the situation.

The Decelerating Global Economy: IMF Forecast for Recession 2023

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is warning that over a third of the economy is headed for a recession this year or next. Its world outlook shows growth withering from 6.0% in 2021, 3.2% in 2022, and an estimate of just 2.7% in 2023.

Recession 2023 will be different from all the recessions the world has faced to date. Different factors are driving economic crashes in different countries, for example:

A cynical recession by hiking interest rates in the US, a structural recession in China powered by the crashing property market, and financial insecurity exaggerated by the ongoing energy crisis in Europe

The ongoing turmoil in the national and global market is further sparking the threat of World War III.

Rising Certainty of World War III

Russia has already invaded Ukraine, and in opposition to Ukraine’s protection, the US cleared this support with Ukraine by immediately sending weapons to Ukraine. Such US behavior infuriated Russia, leading to increased attacks. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin warned the US and European countries that further expansion of support to Ukraine might lead the situation to a ‘Global catastrophe.’ 

On the other hand, China assaulted Taiwan due to the recent visit of the US finance minister. The current clash of China and Indian troops erupt seriously, leading to grim conflict on north-east Indian borders.  

Additionally, civil wars in countries like Somalia, Yemen, Syria, Ethiopia, Afghanistan, and Mali are raising the certainty of World War III. 

Needless to say, World War III will destroy the world economy, resulting in more financial turmoil, starvation, a hike in oil prices, and the depreciation of currencies. 

Recession 2023: The Worst is yet to come

Slowing down economies, high repo rates, depreciation of currencies, bankrupted countries, and looming wars between nuclear countries are further solidifying the onset of a cold economic winter. 

The circumstance indicates what is coming. The indication of recession, the yell of the worst is yet to come.

However, to wrench the global situation on track, policymakers should continue to give needy powerful tailored assistance to respective governments while also putting in place reliable medium-term fiscal strategies.

[your-dietician]

Asian stocks moving lower in wake of latest volatile session on Wall Street

New Post has been published on https://medianwire.com/asian-stocks-moving-lower-in-wake-of-latest-volatile-session-on-wall-street/

Asian stocks moving lower in wake of latest volatile session on Wall Street

TOKYO (AP) — Asian shares were mostly lower on Wednesday following another volatile day on Wall Street, as traders braced for updates on inflation and corporate earnings.

Benchmarks fell in Tokyo NIY00, Shanghai CN:SHCOMP and Hong Kong HSI00 but rose in Sydney.

South Korea’s Kospi KR:180721 lost 0.1% to 2,189.86 after the Bank of Korea raised its key rate by 0.5 percentage point, amid the backdrop of Fed rate hikes in the U.S. and growing inflation risks from the weak won and rebounding global oil prices.

In currency trading the Japanese yen declined to a 24-year low against the U.S. dollar JPYUSD at 146 yen-levels, raising expectations of another intervention by Tokyo to prop up the yen. By midday the dollar USDJPY was at 146.17 yen, up from 145.80 late Tuesday. The euro EURUSD cost 96.96 cents, inching down from 97.07 yen.

The weaker yen raises costs for both consumers and businesses who rely on imports of food, fuel and other needs, but the bigger purchasing power for foreign currencies is expected to boost tourism. Japan reopened fully to individual tourist travel this week after being closed for more than two years because of the pandemic.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 lost 0.2% to 26,348.73 in morning trading. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 AU:ASX10000 gained nearly 0.2% to 6,656.00. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 2% to 16,491.39, while the Shanghai Composite shed 1.2% to 2,943.24.

On Tuesday, the S&P 500 SPX fell 0.7%, marking its fifth straight loss, closing at 3,588.84. The Nasdaq COMP dropped 1.1% to 10,426.19. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA added 0.1% to 29,239.19, while the Russell 2000 index RUT rose 1 point, or about 0.1%, to 1,692.92.

Recession fears have been weighing heavily on markets as stubbornly hot inflation burns businesses and consumers. Economic growth has been slowing as consumers temper spending and the Federal Reserve and other central banks raise interest rates.

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday cut its forecast for global economic growth in 2023 to 2.7%, down from the 2.9% it had estimated in July. The cut comes as Europe faces a particularly high risk of a recession with energy costs soaring amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

See: Global economy most vulnerable since COVID crisis, with housing market at potential ‘tipping point,’ IMF warns

Wall Street is closely watching the Federal Reserve as it continues to aggressively raise its benchmark interest rate to make borrowing more expensive and slow economic growth. The goal is to cool inflation, but the strategy carries the risk of slowing the economy too much and pushing it into a recession.

“The market desperately wants a reason for the Fed to be able to stop tightening and the data recently hasn’t given them that opening with respect to inflation,” said Willie Delwiche, investment strategist at All Star Charts.

Computer-chip manufacturers continued slipping in the wake of the U.S. government’s decision to tighten export controls on semiconductors and chip manufacturing equipment to China. Qualcomm QCOM fell 4%.

See: Intel reportedly plans to lay off thousands of workers, with details potentially emerging alongside quarterly earnings

Uber UBER fell 10.4% and Lyft LYFT slumped 12% following a proposal by the U.S. government that could give contract workers at ride-hailing and other gig economy companies full status as employees.

The Fed will release minutes from its last meeting on Wednesday, possibly giving Wall Street more insight into its views on inflation and next steps.

Investors still expect the Fed to raise its overnight rate by three-quarters of a percentage point next month, the fourth such increase. That’s triple the usual amount, and would bring the rate up to a range of 3.75% to 4%. It started the year at virtually zero.

Rex Nutting: Leading indicators show inflation is slowing, but Fed policy makers are too busy looking in rearview mirror to notice

The government will also release its report on wholesale prices Wednesday, providing an update on how inflation is hitting businesses. The closely watched report on consumer prices will be released on Thursday, and a report on retail sales is due Friday.

“Everyone is still hoping that every inflation report will be the one that shows that pressure is alleviating,” Delwiche said.

Wall Street is also gearing up for the start of the latest corporate earnings reporting season, which could provide a clearer picture of inflation’s impact.

Among the companies reporting quarterly results this week: PepsiCo PEP, Delta Air Lines DAL and Domino’s Pizza DPZ. Banks including Citigroup C and JPMorgan Chase JPM will also report results.

In energy trading, benchmark U.S. crude CL00 lost 82 cents to $88.53 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. U.S. crude-oil prices fell 2% Tuesday. Brent crude BRN00, the international pricing standard, fell 62 cents to $93.67 a barrel.

Read the full article here

[irvinenewshq]

Greenback edges larger yen slips towards degree that prompted intervention By Reuters

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Banknotes of Japanese yen and U.S. greenback are seen on this illustration image taken September 23, 2022. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration By Samuel Indyk and Ankur Banerjee LONDON (Reuters) – The U.S. greenback edged again towards September’s multi-year highs on Tuesday as worries about rising rates of interest and geopolitical tensions unsettled traders, whereas the yen hovered close to the extent that prompted final month’s intervention. Sturdy U.S. labour market information and an expectation that Thursday’s inflation figures will stay stubbornly excessive have all however dashed bets on something however excessive rates of interest by way of 2023 and are driving the greenback again towards the 2002 peak hit final month. Threat urge for food was additionally harm as Russia continued to strike Ukrainian cities on Tuesday in retaliation for a blast that broken the one bridge linking Russia to the annexed Crimean peninsula. “The final narrative is a risk-off one,” mentioned Francesco Pesole, FX strategist at ING, citing the escalation of the battle in Ukraine and new U.S. export controls, which included a measure to chop China off from sure semiconductors. “There are the Fed minutes and U.S. CPI this week that will probably be fairly vital for strengthening hawkish Fed expectations and will proceed to assist the greenback,” Pesole added. By 1046 GMT, the was up 0.1% at 113.14, inching towards the 20-year excessive of 114.78 it touched late final month. The yen hit 145.86 per greenback, simply in need of the 24-year trough of 145.90 touched earlier than the Japanese authorities stepped in to prop it up three weeks in the past. It was final flat at 145.68 per greenback. Japan chief cupboard secretary Hirokazu Matsuno on Tuesday reiterated the federal government’s willingness to intervene, saying they’ll take “applicable steps on extra FX strikes.” Concern of intervention has helped the yen agency in latest weeks, however because it drifts again to multi-decade lows, analysts had been keeping track of whether or not the Financial institution of Japan will step in once more. “It isn’t that simple to gauge at which degree the Financial institution of Japan will intervene,” Pesole mentioned. “It is largely a matter of how orderly the depreciation within the yen is,” Pesole added, though he doubts that the BoJ can be snug with the yen at 150 per greenback. The euro was little modified at $0.97075, stemming 4 days of losses which have seen the forex drift towards the 20-year low of $0.9528 it touched on Sept. 26. Britain’s markets stay on edge and never precisely soothed by the Financial institution of England (BoE) stepping up bond shopping for and finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng promising to deliver ahead some finances bulletins. On Tuesday, the BoE acted once more to stem a collapse within the authorities bond market by asserting a transfer to buy inflation-linked debt till the top of the week. Including to the BoE’s complications was labour market information that confirmed Britain’s unemployment fee fall to its lowest degree since 1974 within the three months to August, however the drop was pushed by a file leap within the variety of individuals leaving the labour market. Sterling wobbled, sliding for a fifth straight day to its lowest degree since Sept. 29 at $1.0999. The pound was final down 0.1% at $1.1048. In the meantime, the risk-sensitive Australian greenback made a 2-1/2 12 months low of $0.62475 on Tuesday. Analysts on the Nationwide Australia Financial institution (OTC:) mentioned the was the market’s “whipping boy” in a selloff and that additional lows had been potential within the close to time period as sentiment is fragile. eased towards the buoyant greenback regardless of persevering with sturdy midpoint fixings from the Folks’s Financial institution of China, as a resurgence of COVID-19 instances dimmed the financial outlook. Originally published at Irvine News HQ

[mariacallous]

Foreign Policy Morning Brief: Britain’s economic agony

By Christina Lu

Welcome to today’s Morning Brief, where we’re looking at Britain’s new economic roadmap, Myanmar’s release of political prisoners, and Russia and Ukraine’s extended grain deal.  

Britain Unveils New Economic Roadmap

As a cloud of economic gloom descends over Britain, the British government announced a £55 billion ($65 billion) plan of tax increases and spending cuts on Thursday in a bid to stabilize the budget and calm uneasy markets. 

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s five-year-plan will likely intensify economic pressures on a public already struggling to cope with a painful cost-of-living crisis. Inflation soared to a 41-year high of 11.1 percent last month, and the country will soon face its largest-ever decline in living standards, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility, meaning Britons will see their real disposable incomes decline by over 4 percent.  

Britain has already slid into a recession, Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt said on Thursday. In his address, he acknowledged that the government was making “difficult decisions,” although he stressed that the moves were necessary. 

“There is a global energy crisis, a global inflation crisis and a global economic crisis,” he said.  “But the British people are tough, inventive and resourceful. We have risen to bigger challenges before.” 

“We aren’t immune to these headwinds but with this plan for stability, growth and public services, we will face into the storm,” he added. 

Sunak’s economic agenda marks a sharp reversal from that of his embattled predecessor, Liz Truss, who resigned in October after facing sharp political blowback over pushing for unfunded tax cuts for wealthy Britons. 

Soon after Truss’s plan was announced, the value of the pound plummeted to a record low against the dollar and the Bank of England declared an emergency intervention into markets. As political pressure against her economic agenda intensified, Truss dismissed Kwasi Kwarteng, then the chancellor, and walked back parts of her controversial policies before eventually resigning herself. 

Sunak has now been in office for nearly a month, having just attended the latest U.N. climate talks, COP27, as well as the G-20 summit in Bali, Indonesia. As the Financial Times‘ Martin Wolf argues, “The most important achievement of Hunt and Rishi Sunak is to reintroduce a degree of coherence and predictability into policymaking.”

What We’re Following Today

Myanmar frees political prisoners. Myanmar’s military junta freed 5,774 prisoners on Thursday, four of whom were foreign citizens: Sean Turnell, an Australian economic aide to Aung San Suu Kyi; Vicky Bowman, the former U.K. ambassador to Myanmar; Toru Kubota, a Japanese documentary filmmaker, and Kyaw Htay Oo, a U.S. citizen. 

Of the freed prisoners, dozens were likely political prisoners. According to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, the junta has detained more than 16,000 people since launching a coup in 2021. 

Extended grain deal. Russia and Ukraine have extended the U.N. and Turkey-brokered Black Sea Grain Initiative by 120 days, after it was originally set to end on Nov. 19. The deal, which was designed to help ease the global food crisis, has been marked by uncertainty ever since it was enacted in July. 

“I welcome the agreement by all parties to continue the Black Sea grain initiative to facilitate the safe navigation of export of grain, foodstuffs and fertilizers from Ukraine,” said U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres. 

MH17 verdict. A Dutch court sentenced three men (in absentia) to life imprisonment for murder in connection with their role in bringing down a Malaysian Airlines jet flying from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur over Ukrainian territory in 2014. The attack on flight MH17, by separatists linked to Russia, killed 298 people—many of them Dutch citizens.

Keep an Eye On 

Egypt’s detained dissident. The family of Alaa Abd el-Fattah, the detained British-Egyptian activist, has warned that his health has “deteriorated severely” after seeing him for a scheduled monthly family visit on Thursday. 

Abd el-Fattah, who had been on a hunger strike for months, also began refusing water to coincide with the start of COP27, the latest U.N. climate summit. He began drinking water and eating again this week after a “near-death experience,” his family said, but is intent on resuming his hunger strike.

Italy’s migrant-smuggling rings. Following a more than three-year-long investigation, Italian authorities have apprehended 12 people for smuggling migrants. Officials said the suspects would make anywhere between 30,000 and 70,000 euros per smuggling operation by requiring each migrant to hand over 3,000 to 5,000 euros.

Thursday’s Most Read

A Theme Park Crisis Is Wrecking South Korea’s Bond Market by S. Nathan Park

Ukraine’s Appetite for Weapons Is Straining Western Stockpiles by Jack Detsch and Amy Mackinnon

Sweden’s Espionage Scandal Raises Hard Questions on Spy Recruitment by Elisabeth Braw 

Odds and Ends 

Researchers believe octopuses may use their many arms to whip objects at their peers, perhaps in an attempt to create some personal space, the Washington Post reported. In an effort to understand the phenomenon, researchers from the University of Sydney studied over 20 hours of videos; one showed a female octopus flinging 17 different objects in just an hour. 

“We can’t be sure, but we think some hits are probably intentional,” Peter Godfrey-Smith, an Australian researcher, told the Post. 

That’s it for today.

For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters.

[jmun2022]

China’s Shocking Withdrawal: What Delegates are Doing Next - Fox News

By Felicia Audrey Nugroho (13/8/22)

The remaining delegates of the UNSC reconvene without one of the biggest stakeholders of the dispute.

(Source: taken by the Fox News journalist, capture of crisis update provided to UNSC delegates)

The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) kicks off its 3rd committee session with a shocking crisis update — China has stormed out of the UNSC meeting, blaming the "anti-China sentiments" permeating the chamber.

A Chinese representative mentioned the unfavourable direction of the council, being one where China is “framed as the malicious actor”. As a revelation of their anger, an increased presence of Chinese ships entering the region of the islands has been reported by Japanese media. The remaining UNSC representatives move quickly as concerns of conflict start to build.

Prior to China’s sudden withdrawal, the council managed to discuss issues relevant to the prospects of military intervention in the areas of the Senkaku Islands. After a protracted discussion marked by high tension and evident divisions, it was clear that China’s perspective was one that went against the perspectives of other delegates present, Russia exclusive.

Presently, in working with the sudden shift in committee dynamics, the delegate of India called out for solutions and diplomacy, questioning the Chinese representatives’ unwillingness to cooperate and maintain a diplomatic discussion until the end, whilst expressing the hope that other delegates would fill this peculiar void with cooperation and peace. The USA chimes in with India’s thoughts, adding upon with a statement calling upon global peace to resolve this dispute. The American representatives also provided striking evidence of China’s unethical acts being acted upon in the Senkaku Islands area and its surrounding Asia-Pacific region.

Just as timing works like magic, the first crisis update was followed by a second update, which displayed China’s scepticism upon the idea of neutralization, and how it is not ‘neutral’. The committee quickly got on its feet, discussing the recent update, with the delegate of India pointing out that if China were to neutralize the islands, it would be an “invasion of Japanese territory”. All the occurrences arising within the council have led to an increasingly clear-cut discussion on territorial matters, specifically on the exclusive economic zones and contiguous zones.

As seen from the discussions, China's abrupt withdrawal has undoubtedly built towards an increased sense of urgency in the council. However, it has driven the council towards a particular direction — neutralization. Whether neutralization is the right decision or not will be for the UNSC delegates to decide for themselves, but there is something conclusive we can see here; a need for cooperation and clarity for multilateral understanding.

[chessinventor]

It is easier for Russia to engage with the West in the battlefield than CCP China when the later has a much greater volume of economy as compared to Russia. It made sense when two nations which are highly depending on each other for basic necessities that they are much less likely to engage each other in war. That maybe partially why the war between CCP China and USA never broke out in 2019. A lot of the running of CCP China economy are depending critically on US technologies especially the online businesses.

The situation of Ukraine Russia war is strange in the sense when Ukraine and the Western democracies are not joined as military alliances fighting the Russian invaders because France and Germany's industries are depending a lot on Russian oils and natural gases. And Putin also play the national guile card very well against Germany as Nazi as a democratically elected government had invaded Russia in the past, while Napoleon had lead the failed invasion to Czar's Russian empire. That national guile is used to justify the non-intervention stance of Germany government towards Russian invasion of Ukraine, so how fair is for the innocent Ukrainians to pay for the sins of crimes committed by Nazi Germany? That is extortion when those who is the victims in the past which could exploit and extract unlimited resources from the past aggressors to do whatever they like, so why not ask Germany to finance the invasion of Ukraine just for Germany to amend the past (then deploy Germany's lack of morality when supporting this invasion)? When Nazi Germany is invading Russia it brings it's own prostitutes to prevent mixing of blood from an inferior race such as Russians or Slavic races, however when Nazi is losing their battle to Red Army countless German girls are raped and sexually abused by Russian soldiers. Is that pay back or revenge is good enough already? Or some leftard in EU or in German thought it would be the best to supply a sum of Germany girls to be abused as sex tools to compensate for the past invasion of Russia by Nazi Germany? Then Russia authority kindly allocated part of the German state sanctioned prostitute to the soldiers in Ukraine then there is no needs for raping and sexually torturing the young Ukraine girls?! How much is enough amendment for the past aggression? The greatest sins of humanity to me seems to be the stupidity of the mass that sympathizer such extortion of the past aggressor. The death of Ukrainians and Russian troops is counted against you if you promote such a way. It is simply ridiculous. To put that in perspective, given the comfort women which exploit the ladies in many parts of Asia during Second World War should Japanese periodically to issue a rape and sex abuse quote for Chinese, Koreans... to rape any Japanese children or women as an amendment for the sins of Japanese invasion to those countries?

[materialsscienceandengineering]

Zen stones naturally placed atop pedestals of ice: A phenomenon finally understood

Like a work of art enshrined in a museum, some stones end up on a pedestal of ice in nature, with no human intervention. This "Zen stone" phenomenon, named after the stacked stones in Japanese gardens, appears on the surface of frozen lakes, Lake Baikal (Russia) in particular. These structures result from the phenomenon of sublimation, which causes a body, in this case ice, to change from solid to gaseous form without the intermediary form of a liquid.

This was recently demonstrated by researchers from the CNRS and l'Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, who reproduced the phenomenon in the laboratory.

They showed that the shade created by the stone hinders the solar irradiance that sublimates the ice, thereby sculpting the pedestal. This research has helped bring to light and understand a rare phenomenon of sublimation within a natural context on Earth.

It was published in the journal PNAS during the week of 27 September 2021.

Read more.

[basilepesso]

There are many people who look at my 3 Tumblr sites (the 2 personal ones, and YWAMag) silently several times per day, without ever making an intervention, when they have Tumblrs. Often it’s great photographers. Sometimes they even go and like every post of YWAMag, but NOT on the mag. Right after the publication in the mag. If we know how to use it, there is an obvious system allowing to see which Tumblrs you don’t follow and/or that don’t follow you watch you, especially the ones who always watch your sites. To these semi-stalkers : what the fuck is your problem ? My “racism” ? My “islamophobia” ? Etc ? Dare speak and either you’ll be reassured or just totally destroyed by the mass of facts and analyses I have made and published over the years. No theory can fight mass facts. That’s why I have been accumulating facts from mainstream media with selected quotes : to make shut up false theoreticians. Anyway the mag on Tumblr and Fb (about 70 000 daily selections in 6 years and a half, hundreds of galleries from all over the world, with all kinds of people highlighted and highly praised with all the respect their talent or genius deserve, speaks for the truth : from USA to Australia, Norway to Japan, China to Spain, Morocco to Turkey, Nigeria to Russia, gays and lesbians to heterosexuals, Jews to Muslims, Christian to Atheists, Buddhists to Shintoists, etc). About gossip, it’s the same : ask, and you’ll see. BP. P.S : a special message to my Asian friends and in particular the Japanese who are very prolific in photography, and present on Tumblr, Instagram, Facebook, etc : don’t listen to US “progressive” liars. You are one of the greatest countries in the world, with one of the strongest identities, as well as culture, and it’s the same for your moral values. Don’t let yourself be eaten : in front of you are fucking blood suckers, and they ALSO HAVE A PLAN FOR YOU. The one that has destroyed France and which is destroying Germany, Sweden, etc. Also, on the web, NEVER BE AFRAID OF THESE LITTLE DICKS. More or less, it’s just web threatening, boycott and influence. They do the same for galleries, museums, etc. But if you bow for places in galleries, magazines and museums, it’s the start of the fall. After that they’ll want more blood.