#depending on the story of mass effect it could also be argued that it's similar to link

[o-wyrmlight]

Hello. Me again.

I wanna do a bunch of comics as I replay the games so I won't answer everything XD but to answer a basic question;

You can play as a male or female Shepard, but Bioware intended the main character to be female. But because video games they were afraid dudebros wouldn't want to play a female lead so they just gave you a choice. Both are called "Shepard" because it's the last name. (Femshep's first name is Jane).

There is also character creation. So you can create a Shepard OC. but Shepard is one of the weirdest main characters I've ever seen, because as the years have gone on... instead of people leaning more into the self insert style of mass Effect, default Jane Shepard has become more and more popular. So these days most art and fanfic will write her as a default instead of a player/reader insert. it's fucking wild!

Also I am still in ME1 so she's still in uniform, but uh... that doesn't last.

........also yes I own the hoodie....

As for everything else... I selfishly don't want to spoil?? Even tho you can literally google it?? 😂 Because I wanna draw it because who boy.... do my babies have a storm coming....

I see! That is super cool, though--I like that female Shepard was intended to be the more canonical between the selectable characters. I wasn't 100% sure about it because I do remember seeing a mention or two about an option between male and female, but I've really only ever seen concept of female Shepard.

And I also think that it's super neat that Shepard's default is so popular! It's sort of a double-reverse of what you'd expect, and people are so baller for that, to be honest.

It sort of reminds me of how--when I play a Legend of Zelda game--I'll usually default to the names I can chose as being the canonical names. Link as Link, Epona as Epona, etc... same with the Pokemon games.

I think part of the reason for that might also be due to consistency. It seems like Mass Effect is a chronological series that takes place over the course of a period of time that features the same characters, so it'd make sense for the main character to remain the same over time.

You look at game series like Fallout, customization is much easier to get a hold of because each game (if I'm correct) features a new main character. It allows for more customization of the experience to fit around the character, but since Mass Effect is in that chronological story that follows the same or a similar cast, it's easier to have an agreed-upon default than it is to have a thousand or so different Shepherds, especially since they all end up sharing the same name (which takes away a part of that customization process).

It could also be that, as Shepard is the name given to the character, it feels ingenuine to a lot of people to have them deviate from their default--as if it's changing their identity. Already having the name implies that the character doesn't exist in a vacuum--they already existed before in the context of the game.

I! Am! Rambling! But I do find it super interesting to think about this!

[st-just]

Barely coherent rambling about nation-states, culture, the Hapsburgs, and Canada

Because why have a blog except to occasionally purge one of the essays floating around half-formed in your brain. To be clear, it’s still half-formed, just on tumblr now. 1,666 words, here’s the Deveraux essay mentioned. Book is Martyn Rady’s The Hapsburgs: To Rule The World

So I’ve had like, nationalism on my mind recently.

And so there’s a kind of recurring beat in left-of-centre American political discourse (like, not ‘internet rnados screaming at each other’ discourse, ‘people with doctorates or think tank positions having debates on podcasts or exchanging op eds’ discourse) where you have some people on the radical end list some of the various horrible atrocities the country is built on, the ways that all the national myths are lies, and how all the saints of the civic religion were monsters to one degree or another – this can come in a flavor of either righteous anger or, like, intellectual sport. And then on the other end you have the, well, Matt Yglesiases of the world. Who don’t really argue any of the points of fact, but do kind of roll their eyes at the whole exercise and say that sure, but Mom and Apple Pie and the American Way are still popular, and if you’re trying to win power in a democracy telling the majority of the population that their most cherished beliefs are both stupid and evil isn’t a great move.

Anyway, a couple weeks back Deveraux posted an essay for the 4th of July (which I don’t totally buy, but is an interesting read) about why the reason American nationalism is so intensely bundled up into a couple pieces of paper and maybe a dozen personalities is precisely because it isn’t a nation at all. Basically, his thesis is that in proper nation-states like England or the Netherlands or wherever, there really is a core population that is the overwhelming demographic majority and really have lived in more or less the same places since time immemorial, and that once the enthographers and mythologists finish their work, all those people really do identify with both the same nation and the same state as its expression. America, by contrast, is by virtue of being a settler nation whose citizenry was filled by waves of immigrants from all the ass ends of Eurasia in a historical eyeblink, even before you add in the native population and descendants of slaves lacks any single core ethnicity that is anywhere close to a majority, as well as any organic national traditions or claims to an ‘ancestral homeland’ that aren’t obviously absurd (and we are trying to include the descendents of slaves and the native population these days, to varying levels of success). All this to say that his point is America is a civic state, not a national one, with the identity of ‘American’ being divorced from ethnicity and instead tied to things like the Declaration of Independence, the Constitution, the whole cult around the Founding Fathers, Lincoln, and [FDR and/or Reagan depending on your politics].

Which, like I said, don’t totally buy, but interesting. (to a degree he overstates how homogenus ‘actual’ nation-states are, he makes America sound very special but if his analysis holds that it’d presumably also apply to several other former settler colonies, in the American context there’s a fairly solid case to be made that the whole ‘nation of immigrants’ story and the racial identity of whiteness were constructed to function as an erratz national ethnicity, with incredible success, etc, etc).

But anyway, if we accept that the American identity is bound up in its civic religion and the mythologized version of its political history, it’s absolutely the case that there’s several segments of the left who take incredibly joy in tearing said civic religion and national mythology apart and dragging whatever’s left through the mud. I mean, hell, I do! (reminder: any politician whose ever had a statue dedicated to them was probably a monster). And, well, call it a greater awareness of historical crimes and injustice, or the postmodern disdain for idols and systems leaking out through the increasingly college-educated populace, or the liquid acid of modernity dissolving away all unchosen identities, or a Marxist cabal undermining the national spirit to pave the way for the Revolution or whatever you like, but in whichever case, that critical discourse is certainly much more prominent and influential among left and liberal media and politics types that is was in decades past.

And, okay, so I finished Martyn Rady’s The Hapsburgs a few days ago. And I mentioned as I was reading it that the chapters on the 19th and 20th centuries reminded me quite a bit of courses I’d taken in school on the late Ottoman Empire and Soviet Union. Because all three are multi/non-national states (Empires, in Deveraux’s terminology, though that’s varying degrees of questionable for each, I think. Moreso for the Hapsburgs than the rest) who outlasted their own ideological legitimacy. And in all three cases it just, well, it didn’t not matter, but even as all the ceremonies got more absurd and farcical  and the politics more consumed by inertia punctuated with crises, things kept limping along just fine for decades. Even in the face of intense crisis, dissolution wasn’t inevitable. (The Ottomans are a less central example here, admittedly, precisely because of the late attempt to recenter the empire on Turkish nationalism. But even then, more Arab soldiers fought for the Sultan-Caliph than ever did for the Hashemites, and most prewar Arab nationalism was either purely cultural or imagined the Empire reformed into a binational federation, not dissolved).

But as Rady says in the book – losing WW1 crippled Germany, it dissolved Austria-Hungary. And in all three cases, as soon as they were gone, the idea of bringing them back instantly became at least a bit absurd.

And okay, to now pivot to talking about where I actually live but about whose politics I (shamefully) know significantly less than America’s. I mean, maybe it’s because most of my history education from public school was given by either pinko commies or liberals still high off ‘90s one-world universalism, or maybe it’s just a matter of social class, but I really can’t remember ever having taken the whole wannabe civic religion of Canada seriously (the only even serious attempt at sacredness I recall was for Remembrance Day). Even today, the main things I remember about our Founding Father is that he was an alcoholic who lost power in a railroad corruption scandal.

Really, in all my experience the only unifying threads of national/particular Canadian identity are a flag, a healthcare system, those Canadian Heritage Minute propaganda ads, a bill of rights from the ‘60s, and an overpowering sense of polite smugness towards the States.

And that last one (or, at least, the generally rose-colored ‘Canada is the good one’ view of history) is taking something of a beating, on account of all the mass graves really rubbing the public’s noses in the whole genocide thing. At least among big segments of the intellectual and activist classes, most of the symbols of Canadian nationhood are necessarily becoming illegitimate as Canada is, in fact, a project of genocidal settle colonialism.

But it really is just purely symbolic. Most of the municipalities who cancelled their Canada Day celebrations are going to elect Liberal MPs and help give our Natural Governing Party its majority in the next election, no one of any significance has actually challenged the authority of the civil service or the courts. And, frankly, most of the people who are loudly skeptical of all the symbols of the nations are also the ones whose political projects most heavily rely on an efficient and powerful state bureaucracy to carry out.

(This is leaving aside Quebec, which very much does have a live national identity insofar as the vigorous protection of national symbols is what wins provincial elections. If I felt like doing research and/or reaching more there’s probably something there on how pro-independence sentiment has largely simmered down at a pace with the decline of attempts to impose a national Canadian identity).

I mean, Canada does have rather more of a base for a ‘national’ population core than the US (especially if you’re generous and count the people who mark French on the census as a core population as well). At the same time, no one really expects this to continue to be the case – even back in Junior High, I remember one of the hand outs we got explaining that due to declining fertility most or all future population growth would come from immigration (I remember being confused when my mother was weirdly uncomfortable with the idea when it came up). I suppose our government gets credit for managing public opinion such that anti-immigration backlash hasn’t taken over the political conversation. Which you’d think would be a low bar but, well.

But anyway, to try and begin wrapping this rambling mess up – it does rather feel like Rady’s portrayal of the late Hapsburg empire might have a few passing similarities to the future of Canada. A multinational state whose constitution and political system and built on foundations and legitimized by history that no one actually believes in anymore, or at least no more than they have to pretend to to justify the positions they hold, but persisting because it’s convenient and it’s there and any alternatives are really only going to seem practical after a complete economic collapse or apocalyptic war. (Though our civil service is a Josephist’s dream by comparison, really.)

Or maybe I’m premature, and the dominant culture will just be incredibly effective at assimilating immigrants into that civic identity. Anecdotally, the only people I know who are at all enthusiastic about Canada as an idea are first generation immigrants. I could certainly just be projecting, really – I’ve never really been able to get all that invested in the nation-state as an idea of more moral power than ‘a convenient administrative division of humanity’, and certainly liberating ourselves form the need to defend the past would certainly rectifying certain injustices easier.  

Or maybe I’m just being incredibly optimistic. Half the economy’s resource extraction and the other half’s real estate, so decent odds the entire place just literally goes up in flames over the next few decades. BC’s already well on its way.

[starr-fall-knight-rise]

Humans are Space Orcs “Potentially Accidental Homicide”

Something short and sweet for those of you that are here for that, and something to hold over those who are interested in the longer stuff. I would be opposed to writing a story based on some of these if you are interested :)

Report ID 2241569

Author Krill

Humans are natural born killers they will always argue against it, but it’s true. They are the only known sentient predator species in the galaxy. Some might say that the Drev prove that point wrong, but the Drev evolved based on war practices and not survival, they only eat plants. However, everything a human can do is designed to make them better killers….. Everything. But today I will not be talking about that, today I will be talking about the accidental ways that humans can kill you. Yes, out of all the species in the galaxy, humans are the only ones that can, en mass, pose significant problems to other species by accident.

·         Let’s talk about my own species for instance, the Vrul. With our complicated cortical structures, designed for logic, we are known to be, on average, the smartest creatures in the galaxy based on average IQ. However, due to these structures, human music has been known to override our neural network and short circuit it. If you are lucky, like me, the short circuit causes temporary shutdown and a state of unconsciousness, others more susceptible have been known to collapse into complex partial seizures. This becomes difficult when you accidentally walk past a human humming to themselves or singing in the shower.

·         On the same thread, other species experience hypnotic effects as a result of the human speaking voices. Certain paranoid parties worry that human developed their voices to be able to mesmerize prey before eating them.

·         To some species, specifically hailing from the Gamma quadrant are from planets that have low water content. A byproduct of their evolution means that water on the outside of their bodies is toxic causing something similar to human anaphylaxis. This remains a problem seeing as humans spit is water, tears are water, and their sweat is water. There has been at least one known fatality caused by skin to skin contact with a human.

·         Humans are a cesspool of bacteria and disease. It is known that the human body contains more bacterial cells than it contains human cells. In certain cases, much of the galaxy can simply be immunized against these bacteria, however, Delta sector lifeforms are so susceptible to human disease that they have to wear hazmat suits, or require that the humans wear hazmat suits when interacting.

·         The human scream can reach decibel levels so high that it has been known to paralyze, stun, and even rupture organs in vulnerable species.

·         Human saliva, not only contains high amounts of bacteria, but catalyst enzymes in the mouth have been known to break down tissues of certain species leaving he human mouth as an extremely corrosive place.

·         As a side note to the pervious comment, human stomach acid is known to eat through anything other than the human stomach. Regurgitations by humans have been known to eat flesh, damage equipment, eat trough ship structures, and cause area quarantine for weeks on end in certain areas.

·         In the same discourse, when humans breathe, they breathe out toxic particles. In one particular incident, a group of humans standing in the same room as a particular species was able to cause near suffocation and a case of toxic poisoning in under ten minutes flat as their breath permeated the air. Prognosis was poor, those in that room will suffer with those issues for the rest of their lives.

·         Humans release certain….. Byproduct gasses, from digestion that have been known to be toxic to certain species.

·         Interestingly enough, there is a certain species of creature from the Iota cluster that is known to have an intoxicatingly pleasant smell to humans. This smell can endues hunger, and predatory behavior in humans…. What I am trying to say is that they smell so good to the humans that the humans want to eat them, and can barely stop themselves from trying. It is advised of this species to either, stay away from humans, or, in dire circumstances, force the human to wear nose plugs.

·         Humans have also been known to underestimate their strength. Comparable to other humans, this issue is barely worth speaking of, but comparatively to other species, humans have been known to break bones with a simple handshake.

·         Most human foods can be considered toxic. In certain cases humans are advised to wait at least three hours after eating before engaging with other species as residue of their food could be potentially lethal. Furthermore human waste is also considered biohazard level 1 and is often disposed of with chemical weapons byproducts.

So, what are we supposed do about these issues? I mean apparently humans can cause a planet wide pandemic for just pissing in the wrong place (which they do a lot by the way). So SOMEONE has to come up with the protocol for this nonsense, and who has to do that, oh yeah, it’s me, and based on my judgement, the GA has issued some rules

·         In contact with certain species, humans are required to wear the proper protection, this goes from protective gloves all the way up to full body hazmat depending on the species being interacted with.

·         Immediate biohazard crews will be implemented in response to a sick human.

·         Human food may not cross contaminate with other alien food. Failure to obey will be sentenced with a fine or jail time.

·         The unlawful disposal of human waste is considered to be a felony. Yes, yes human’s in looking at you, the drunk ones who have a habit of peeing in back alleyways when inebriated.

·         Sighing, humming screaming, and whistling are designated only for specific safe zones.

·         Humans are forbidden to make physical contact with certain species unless invited, expected, or otherwise licensed to do so.

Of course, the vast majority of the galaxy does not experience such extreme effects when in contact with humans. Drev, Vrul, Rundi, and a large percentages of species do not experience significant danger when in contact with humans. If that wasn’t the case than Oxi-clinics would be inadvisable. May issues we experience are minor and can be dealt with easily……

*Sigh* Still, humans are exhausting to work with. Absolutely exhausting.

I am exhaustion.

 Humans are the worst....

[ezrisdax-archive]

Thoughts on a fun way to make a Star Trek/Mass Effect crossover? Or characters interactions cross-series?

like a full crossover? hmmm, certainly it’d be a parallel worlds type situation where I feel in Trek world the Leviathans didn’t evolve and create the Reapers and thus life wasn’t constantly wiped out and that’s why there’s more of an alien populace in the galaxy to explain the stark differences. And then time travel would get involved too since ME takes place before Trek.

So depending on which Trek you’re gonna go with (which for me I can pick any) there’s some wormhole shenanigans going on only what they call wormholes are the dark energy spots that Reapers use in ME time. The crew is investigating them when they go through it and end up in ME time (or if you want the ship accidentally goes through a la Voyager crossing over quadrants).

At first the crew is clearly trying to not get involved but can’t resist the chance to explore and learn the differences and when they realize this isn’t their actual past and can interact with the place more, which brings them into contact with the Normandy which has been sent to investigate the strange readings so we get to crew interactions of (which I’ll put under a cut cause it got long):

Spock and/or Tuvok, and Liara discussing the Vulcan Mind Meld versus the Asari meld and coming to the conclusion that they might have a genetic link back

Tali and B’Elanna having a field day comparing notes (and complaining) on what it’s like keeping a ship together when you don’t have all the parts you really need since Tali used to do that with the Quarian ships and B’Elanna does that now

Kirk and Shepard discussing choices made that shape worlds for better or worse despite the best of intentions and geeking out over model ships. You can’t tell me that doesn’t happen.

Bashir and Mordin are the only people able to understand each other in their speed talking and excitedly sharing notes about different aliens.

Worf and Wrex and Grunt immediately start a fight (bonus points for Wrex insulting Worf for sounding like Uvenk whom Dorn voices)

Seven and Legion (in a world where he lives, what do you mean he dies) discussing what it’s like going from a hive mind to being individuals and coming to find yourself and who you are as a person, like Legion clearly was more involved in finding this aspect for his people as opposed to Seven who had it forced on her but they share the desire now to learn and become an individual and protect those they care about

Janeway and Shepard blow something up by accident while trying to investigate something because of course they do

Samara and Deanna sitting down and just discussing life because I feel like these two would be friends and smirking at their friends antics and secretly betting on who’s gonna get into what danger

I actually have a lot of thoughts about paragon!Shepard and Michael being similar characters in the sense of having this burden of the galaxy placed on them and speaking out against things that people refuse to see except for the crew they’re apart of and trying to warn people of a war and do their best to prevent it and bring people together

Tilly and Tali and Gabby together would be a delight I feel, just talking excitedly about everything under the sun. including the sun.

Sulu and Joker arguing who's a better pilot and Sulu being fascinated how Mass Effect fields work when it comes to piloting and Joker proudly explaining it

Sisko tries to adopt Grunt from Shepard (no I’m mostly kidding, I think that Sisko and Shep have a great deal of respect for each other in caring for the crew and having in placed in an almost god like reverence in certain situations and the struggles with that. and then also Sisko brings back baseball to the Mass Effect world. Shepard absolutely hates that)

I figure the EMH would actually be most interested in biotics and the science of that and writing down to make a paper to publish as the first hologram to do so.

Likewise EDI is fascinated with hologram technology that Trek’s have and if the ships have ever developed sentience in any way and if she can incorporate some of that technology into the Normandy to further her own development

I think Kira gets along with Wrex and is angry at Salarians on his behalf once she hears what was done to the Krogan because the genocide of a species hits hard with her

Tilly and Samantha are even worse than Bashir and Mordin at talking so fast no one gets it but them and they very much do enjoy talking to each other

Tom and Steve have shuttle races until they’re ordered back by their bosses because really guys

Geordi has a lot of talks with EDI, some about his friendship with Data and the human side of interacting with a being that’s trying to learn about humanity themselves but most about the ship and the benefits of integration with it that allow you to be aware of everything that’s happening on it

also Data and EDI tell the worst jokes and everyone regrets this

Picard and Thane drink tea together and discuss philosophies and Thane talks about his species old artifacts and how they were lost to his culture and Picard just listens with interest and some ideas on how you could maybe get those back

Jadzia and Jack get along surprisingly well, they have a holodeck fight at one point and Jadzia takes tricorder readings of biotics and then they go out drinking together

on the flip side Ezri and Miranda get along in terms of being forced to live up to unreasonable family expectations (all though far less harsh in Ezri’s case) and having to carve out your own identity and also like...weirdly everyone hating you for no other reason than your character exists

Bev gets into playing poker with Kaidan and Steve and now they’re all trying to beat each other constantly at it

Saru and Liara get along the easiest at first and discuss the wild things their crews get up to and how they eventually just started to go along with the madness

Kasumi keeps trying to steal from Tuvok but can’t manage it and thinks it’s the best challenge she’s had in years. Tuvok just wants to talk to Thane and get back to the Delta Quadrant already captain.

Harry and Jacob get to talking about having to prove themselves and always being looked over and the troubles of trying to get your own command

Bones hates all of this, Kirk what the hell have you done now. That said he and Zaeed get to drinking and talking about the bullshit that comes from space travel. All though Zaeed’s is more about how annoying it is to try to kill someone in it. Bones thinks he’s just over exaggerating and not a mercenary at first.

James keeps showing off for literally everyone and turning things into a competition with whoever he can when it comes to physical activities, he’s still sulking that Data beat him until he finds out that Data is an android and then calls foul on it.

Odo and Zaeed grumble about everything together

B’Elanna and Ashley have a book club that they don’t tell anyone about and share romance novels and poetry while complaining about how everyone doesn’t expect it from them and that’s part of why they don’t tell people those parts of themselves

Uhura gets the translators turned off on the Normandy to listen to everyone’s dialect and language and is quick to pick up on it, she’s especially good with Drell and enjoys conversing with Thane in it

Liara is absolutely freaked out that Deanna sounds like her mother and Deanna is absolutely using this to troll her whenever she can because it amuses her

Grunt and Chekov get into arguments about history of all things despite that people keep pointing out that they’re from alternate worlds and therefore it’s different anyway

Chakwas and Chakotay sit down to talk about what it’s like sorta taking care of the crew and just ridiculous stories of things they’ve put with

Riker at one point talks to Miranda about clones and dealing with someone who is the same genetically as you but isn’t you and do you have a relationship with them or leave them be (they don’t come up with an answer really)

Mordin gets banned from taking samples of other aliens

Nog and Gabby talk one point about being sorta new to the experiences of war and frontline suddenly and the horrors that come with it and share their experiences of being trapped by the Reapers vs being in a Jem’Hadar fight and coming back from that

Guinan doesn’t care much for Javik but they do have one good discussion about what it’s like being one of the last of your species and seeing so many of them die due to a machine race (and worse, converted to serve that race) that you just can’t fight back against no matter how much you try (or that’s what they thought at the time)

Samantha and Spock and Kirk and/or Airiam have strategy game nights and really get into it and Spock will typically leave while Sam and Kirk are still geeking out over it until the morning

Quark is banned from the Normandy point blank

Worf tries to get everyone to appreciate Klingon opera, the only one he manages to get into it are Grunt and Legion

Scotty is especially fascinated with the drive core of the Normandy and talks to Adams about it constantly

Chakotay and James having a boxing match at one point

Jake interviews like everyone and is thinking about turning this experience into a novel and enjoys listening to everyone’s stories

O’Brien and Garrus get caught up in calibrations, can you come back later

okay this literally is getting too long already but I could keep going. I think then there’s a group discussion about the Borgs vs the Reapers and the troubles everyone faces in those fights and a lot of back and forth about things that have worked for one crew that may help someone else out (like the Changeling cure to maybe help the Genophage cure or vice versa)

[scumerage]

How could "World War I" actually happen in One Punch Man? A social, legal, and military breakdown:

[Credit to /u/shadowii66 on reddit for all his great insight and debate regarding what many, myself included, believe to be an upcoming Superhero Civil War (even if he disagree and argues it won't happen). Much of this will be a rehash of our long in depth discussion, so I will try and summarize.]

#I. What is necessary for a civil war to happen?

(A) Both sides need to be partially justified/have partial public support:

If one side is presented as too unjustified/too univerally hated, then they can't actually fight, example, if the HA or Neo-Heroes attacked the other simply to seize power, not only will society turn on them, but most of their own heroes will refuse to fight on their behalf. Remember, the majority are not soldiers but heroes, they fight for individual reasons, not blind obedience.

(B) One side needs to declare war on the other:

Even if both have justification and at least some public support, one or both sides needs to take the step to act on it, to decide that, else it will simply continue to compete with popularity, funding, and public discourse. They need to take matters into their own.... and destroy the other Association by force.

(C) The majority of heroes on both sides need to fight:

Even if both sides are partially justified and one side makes the daring to declare war, the heroes still need to fight. If one sides heroes refused, it would simply be a coup, a manhunt, or a bloodless revolution and political takeover. Not a real war.

(D) Both sides must rival each other in military power:

If one side has an insurmountable and overwhelming power advantage, the war will end the minute it begins, with one side demolishing the other in a single battle. So the only way a war can actually be waged is if it is competitive, if victory and defeat hang in the balance for each group of heroes.

#II. How COULD the Civil War happen?

(A) Neo-Heroes declare war on the HA on charges of corruption, inefficiency, and endangering humanity:

The Neo-Heroes claim the HA leaders are criminals that need to be arrested for their crimes (and they would be right): money laundering+bribery+monster black market trade/putting a donor's son before humanity itself/nearly all their best heroes defeats by a single human teenager, the hero hunter/heroes like Bofoi and Tornado causing massive collateral damage through incompetence/any heroes who defend the HA are supporting the corruption and criminal collaborators.

 The Neo-Heroes march on City A to arrest the HA execs, the "Old Heroes" refuse to let them, an all out battle breaks out. Presumably the Neo-Heroes are driven back (else the HA would fall and the war would be over), maybe the HA launches their own attack on the Neo-Hero HQ, in any case, the war continues.

(B) Either Metal Knight is framed as a villain, or the Organization/Neo-hero ties are made public:

If the Organization can frame Bofoi as a villain, either by having replica Metal Knight drones attack the Neo-Heroes or even civilians, or better yet, frame Child Emperor as a HA terrorist seeking to destroy the Neo Heroes. Since Child Emperor is too smart to eat up the war propaganda of the Neo-Heroes (Edit 1), AND he will be investigating the Neo-Heroes from the inside, which the Organization does NOT want.

But if the Organization/Neo Hero ties are made public? The HA can justifiably say the Neo-Heroes are working for villains, allies of the MA, AND illegal arms dealers/criminals. The corrupt, desperate HA leaders would be all too willing for an excuse to attack the Neo-Heroes, who threaten their very existence, especially by stealing donors and hero recruits. Same scenario of one association attacking the other, just with attacker/defender reversed.

(C) [Argued by /u/shadowii66] A Civil War cannot happen:

 The Old Heroes won't fight to protect the corrupt and criminal HA execs.

The Neo-Hero members won't attack other heroes on false charges.

The Old Heroes saved the world from the aliens and MA, so they cannot simply be labelled as criminals and villains to justify fighting them.

[/u/shadowii66 If there are any major reasons I mistated/left out feel free to correct me]

#III. What events CANNOT happen, which would nullify the Civil War?

(A) Blast, Tornado, or Metal Knight join the war:

They are too powerful, and would give the HA too great an advantage. Thankfully, Blast has chosen to remain absent so far, and the other two have been discredited and will likely not take action.

(B) The Organization launches an attack on the world prematurely:

That would unite the heroes against them, and force them to overcome their differences and work together to fight them. Also, the Organization would lose the brilliant strategy of using the Neo-Heroes as cannon fodder to take down the HA/gather battle data on all the Old Heroes+Neo-Heroes+human fighters in general (and maybe have the Neo-Heroes go after Bofoi to force him to reveal his robot army prematurely).

(C) God or the Ninja Leader become public villains too early:

While they very well may be playing a large role on the sidelines, perhaps manipulating the war for their own benefit, and may even show up at the end, there can’t be a main villain too early. They are in a similar bind as the Organization, if they are too open and threaten the world too greatly, the heroes would ally to fight them (though it would still be glorious if one of the battles between several S-Class and Neo-Leaders is cut short by the Ninja Leader showing up and curbstomping all of them in an instant... they wouldn't even know how they were defeated).

#IV. How COULD the Civil War end?

(A) The Hero Association falls:

This is the Organization's whole purpose for the Civil War... to destroy the HA with humanity's own fighters, and also gathering a complete database of all the strength, style, and abilities of every hero. Meaning that even the S-Class will be utterly crushed by whatever perfect matchups the Organization creates to defeat them (not simply mix and matching random monsters like Psykos did). With all the heroes, both Old and Neo, as good as defeated, only Bofoi and Blast (maybe King as well?)(Edit 3) will be left to oppose them. and then... THEN they will strike.

(B) The Neo-Heroes fall:

The Organization's plan fails, the HA remains standing, though obviously greatly weakened, multiple cities in shambles, the heroes even more demoralized and worn out than they were from fighting the monsters. Still beneficial to the Organization, but not the great victory they had hoped for.

(C) A Third Side defeats/unites both HA and Neo-Heroes:

Could be the Hero Name Victims Association, could be the Ninja Leader, could be Blast, could be a disciple of God, could Blast, hey, crazy idea, could be the Organization or Bofoi for all anyone knows. The main issues is that the Third Side can’t take the spotlight til late in the Civil War (preferably when either it is clearly a stalemate or one side is clearly winning/losing). That way the Civil War conflict can actually be fully fleshed out. And either has an army wide reaching and effective enough to defeat both groups, or does not and the heroes on either side align.

(D) The HA and Neo-Heroes make peace:

Errr... possible? But both the HA and Neo-Heroes are hopelessly corrupt in their very structure.... based on support from either opportunistic morally unscrupulous businessmen... or foreign technological civilizations who have their own ends in mind. They cannot accept the degeneracy they both share, deny responsibility for... and accuse the other of having. Even a theoretical alliance in corruption would be doomed to fail sooner rather that, when their usefulness for each other is gone.

#V. What will happen after this Civil War Saga is over?

By “over”, what is meant is simply that the themes and story of the Civil War is fully tied up, that would include, say, when the Ninja Leader returns or the fallout from one or both Associations falling has had its impact. That the Civil War Saga is over, and a new saga is beginning. And the next saga is obviously the Organization Saga. The Civil War, successful or not, is over, there is no more use to be gained out of staying in the shadows. The time has come for machines to overshadow mankind, all the squabbles between chaotic monsters, naive martial artists, arrogant heroes, and greedy mercenaries will be nothing compared to the two greatest military powers the world has ever seen (Edit 2): Dr. Bofoi/Metal Knight, with his legions of mass produced, stockpiled, and obedient battle drones… and the Organizations elite, freshly upgraded, and intellectually genius AIs and cyborgs. Oh, and Genos is there too!

#VI. Final Notes:

Edit 1: Child Emperor explicity stated he doesn’t trust the Neo-Heroes and wants to keep an eye on them.

 Edit 2: The HA, MA, and NHA were all mostly dependent on random, biological prodigies. Which is great in the short term, they collected the best fighters they could find available and put them to work doing what they do best. However… they can’t actually produce talent reliably (even Psykos was lucky to get Orochi and then Garou to grow exponentially, just as the HA was lucky to get Genos). Whereas Bofoi and the Organization? All the need is data, raw materials, and time… and they can produce an army. And they both have had plenty of all three.

Edit 3: The Organization may decide that King is purposely hiding his fighting style, therefore they don’t seek him out... and lo and behold, he doesn’t come after them and wipe them out!

[laranjatoranjalaranja]

Aesthetics and History of Art: what is their role under fully-automated luxury communism?

Aesthetics has become unpopular among the left. Today, it is commonly associated with fascism and right-wing manipulative propaganda tactics. Walter Benjamin’s famous text about the modern reproduction of artworks can be credited with laying out a great part of the structure and terms of this discussion. In his work, what he calls the “aestheticisation of politics” is famously associated with fascism, while art, understood as a kind of aesthetics that has been politicised, is contrarily and positively associated with communism.

The main reason why this text acquired the cult status it has today, within the artworld, is because of the way in which it defines contemporary art as inherently revolutionary. Benjamin believes that, thanks to recent advances in its technological reproducibility, truly contemporary artworks were finally freed from old hierarchical ideas of originality, and thus acquired a new and enhanced political potential, particularly suitable for the communist political project.

Aesthetics, on the other hand, without the politisation that would turn it into art, becomes simply the domain of appearances, simulation, and spectacle in the Debordian sense. And this is where this theory starts to show its fragility. 

A closer look at Benjamin’s theory reveals it to be susceptible to the same criticism as Debord’s Society of the Spectacle. As Jacques Rancière has pointed out in The Emancipated Spectator, the separation between the simulated appearances that seduce the masses, and the true reality only accessible to some, is unfounded and misleading, despite being commonly understood to be a fact of life. 

The legitimacy of this separation depends on a thriving platonic idealism that often affects both right and left of the political spectrum and which is particularly prevalent in the Western world. According to this ideology, the mind and the body are hierarchically separated. While the mind is our reliable means of accessing the truth, the body is the deceiving realm of flawed sensorial perception which is completely unreliable unless previously subjected to correction by reason.

If we understand aesthetics in its broadest possible form, as simply that which relates to the senses, it inevitably falls into the suspicious second half of this division. But art can still be saved if it is not understood in aesthetic terms but as politicised aesthetics. The politicisation of aesthetics entails fighting ‘the spectacle’, by subjecting the ‘simulations’ our body perceives to the political ‘corrections’ of our intellectual reason.**

To further clarify why this kind of framework is flawed, it becomes useful to make a quick detour to the work of another author. In Pedagogy of The Oppressed, Paulo Freire defines praxis as a dialectical union between theory and practice. This means that, while our theory can, and should, inform our practice, this same practice also needs to inform our theory, thus making sure it matches our actual, lived reality. This means that the relationship between mind and body, theory and practice, reason and senses, is better understood as one of cooperation and mutual dependency than one of hierarchy and antagonism. It also means that aesthetics, broadly understood, plays an essential role in this dialectical process.

But, going back to Benjamin, I have said that the main reason his theory got so popular within the artworld is because of the revolutionary character he assigned to art. But this is not the only reason. Complementing this idea, we have a second one which relates to the phenomenon of demonization of aesthetics I mentioned in the very beginning. 

It is becoming increasingly hard to ignore the fact that the art faces serious, and inherent, issues and contradictions. The complementing aspect of what makes Benjamin’s argument appealing is that it allows us to keep our faith in art, while also feeling like we are targeting the problems that ‘threaten its purity and integrity’. These problems are thus presented as non-inherent, originating from external sources, and a great deal of what made this ‘outsourcing’ possible has been the use of aesthetics as a scapegoat for the issues affecting art in general.

Aesthetics has proven to be a particularly good fit for this. This is because if, on the one hand, some people felt suspicious towards art because they thought it was shallow, futile and even deceiving, we could argue, like Benjamin, that this was a problem of aesthetics and not art. Although this ‘futility’ argument is relatively common, it is not a very strong one (as I have tried to show when I mentioned Ranciere’s critique). A strong argument that can be directed against art, on the other hand, would be that it is a historical invention of the modern West, which means it has not always existed and, therefore, the usefulness of its continued existence becomes open for debate. But this critique too can be diverted towards aesthetics. 

In fact, aesthetics much more that art, was accused of being something made up in the 18th century by Western white males unaware of their privilege, to create rules that would validate what they thought of as beautiful and worthy of attention. Aesthetics, as a discipline, deserved all the criticism it got. More recently, the art market and the ‘artworld’, where also targets of a similar critique which, was also perfectly valid but, for some reason, continued to assume that all these things can be separated from art itself. As if art could ever have come to existence, and continue to exist, without them.

This criticism of aesthetics as an academic discipline, the art market or the artworld, is usually done using a leftist discourse. But critiques that extend to the notion of art itself are rare. 

Occasionally, more radical leftists will become interested in topics like art. And many of them do end up realising, half way through their own research, courses or degrees, that all these accusations often thrown at ‘aesthetics’ are just as applicable to our notion of art. Frequently, these people end up being the ones who are more dismissive and suspicious of our contemporary cultural institutions in general. They often believe that art, like most of our contemporary culture, can be categorised as ‘capitalist spectacle’, and therefore should be understood as a distraction to be ignored. 

These people can be easily convinced that art is a capitalist invention of the modern West. But the conclusion they draw from this is that the best thing to do is to dismiss all the things presented as art by our artistic institutions as capitalist distraction tactics, meant to divert our attention from the ‘real’ issues. What they fail to recognise, on the one hand, is that art is not a distraction to be ignored, but a weapon to be fought. And, on the other hand, they make the mistake of accepting the terms in which the capitalist artworld defines what aesthetics can be.

Capitalism knows well how to use aesthetics to its advantage. It has developed things like marketing and branding, as well as art, which are complex and highly effective techniques designed to work specifically to its own advantage. It knows how to tell the seductive and persuasive story of its own triumph and legitimacy. 

This left, on the other hand, has little more than outdated ideas of communist propaganda, which are literally from the last century. And this is because, today, the left often conceives of aesthetics as either evil or merely secondary. We haven’t taken any time to develop an alternative way to understand this other part of us, the one that is more connected to the senses and which is equally essential to understanding the world around us.

While part of what I will do here is question the validity of, and politics behind, our modern notion of art, I also want to argue that aesthetics is, actually, not necessarily susceptible to the same criticism. Unlike art, the artworld and the art market, the word aesthetics can have an older, broader meaning. Aesthetics, as that which simply relates to the senses, is not susceptible to the same criticism as its modern academic homonym, or as art, because it is not to be understood as a Human creation. It is not connected to any idea of ‘what it means to be Human’ or any ‘essence’ of Humanity. So, in this specific sense, aesthetics can be said to be an a-historical concept.

The prevailing platonic idealism I mentioned previously, leads people to prefer thinking in terms of Art and Humanity, rather than in terms of aesthetics, which would imply the recognition of a common ground, shared among us and all the other animals.

Aesthetic sensibility, understood in this way, is possessed by anyone and anything that simply possesses senses. From humans, to animals and maybe even other kinds of beings. While we can say that not all cultures have art because the concept of art is an invention of the West, we cannot say the same of things like aesthetics in this broad sense.***

Rather than dismissing aesthetics as a product of capitalism or a more or less futile thing to be dealt with ‘later’, we need to recognise that capitalism will thrive as long as it continues presenting itself as the best, or even the only, materially realistic, viable, alternative. No matter how many theories and manifestos the left has, as long we are not capable of presenting aesthetic alternatives to what capitalism has been imposing, none of it will feel, or even be, translatable to real life.

The left cannot go on pretending like aesthetics is a dispensable, secondary issue. Aesthetics is not a distraction, it is an essential part of how we experience our lives and therefore it too deserves a pride of place in our political agenda. Ignoring it will not make it irrelevant.

At this point, I have been studying History of Art in academia for 5 years, and it strikes me how, despite appearances, truly revolutionary History of Art barely exists. Despite the overwhelming number of so-called radical journals and other kinds of left-wing publications, most of it is actually liberal. What I mean by this is that most of the people who write for these publications seem to share a common goal: to free art from the elites’ domination (much like Benjamin). This is a liberal goal because it aims at reforming rather than revolutionising the existing system. It aims at saving art at all cost and it rules of even considering that its obvious and persisting problems might be inherent and that a possible solution would be to replace it with something radically different. Related to this, is another striking problem which is the prevailing assumption that art and the elites are separable to begin with.

I want to make it clear here that art cannot be understood (especially within academic contexts) as a human constant. Studying the history of art implies that art has a history and, therefore, a historical origin. Humans were not ‘artistic’ by nature, since the beginning of time. Art is a concept created by the modern West. There were no actual synonyms to the word Art in non-Western cultures and no one in Europe was even talking about such a thing until the 18th century (see Kristeller’s The Modern System of The Arts (pt. I and pt. II) and Shiner’s The Invention of Art*). 

It is irresponsible and anachronistic for Art historians to say or imply that art is something that humans have always done. This is an imperialistic tendency that we need to, not only distance ourselves from, but also actively fight against. And I stress actively fight against because these things I am writing about here have already been mentioned in academic publications from decades ago (Kristeller’s first article was published in 1951).

Since its creation, Art has existed to serve the capitalist elites (see Taylor’s Art, An Enemy of The People*). It was created by them, for them. To both serve and represent their interests. 

I say capitalist elites, specifically, because the works commissioned by the traditional nobility did not fit with our modern idea of art in their original contexts. The treasures of the French monarchy only became Art when the bourgeoisie took over and made them what they are today - the collection of an Art museum. These objects were stripped of their original meanings and functions and became targets of ‘disinterested contemplation’ and those who see this as a revolutionary triumph over an oppressive regime conveniently forget that the reality is more complex and the same thing was also done with foreign objects stolen by the French colonisers, shortly after.

Today, many people are still wondering why is Duchamp’s Fountain Art. The answer is, mainly, because this is what the elites behind our art institutions decided is art. The line between Art and non-Art is merely an institutional one. Art is an institutional system. And this is a system whose tables cannot simply be turned because, in order for Art to exist, it needs to distinguish itself from other modern categories like crafts and popular culture. The category of Art depends on this hierarchical distinction because, simply put, Art is High Culture.

This means that as long as art, as we understand it today, exists, there must also exist a privileged group that gets to draw the line between High and low culture. The cultural identity of these elites might change overtime, but their status as oppressors will always remain, within this structure. This is why the quest to ‘democratise’ art is merely reformist rather than revolutionary. 

I am not advocating for the burning of museums, Futurism style. I do think museums are important sources of information that should be free especially when they are public. What I am saying is that when these museums exhibit things that were not originally intended to be art as if they have always and unquestionably been so, they are making a serious mistake. They are silencing alternative narratives and disrespecting the people who created the objects they claim to be spreading knowledge about. They are suppressing aesthetic diversity, not promoting it.

Regarding contemporary Art museums and galleries, I think it would be fair to say that they are mostly bullshit. I make intentional efforts not to give any of my money to them (this also applies to academic Art Schools). I sometimes visit them, when they are free, because I want my opinions to be informed. I don’t usually pay for any tickets (they are usually even more expensive than regular museums anyway) nor do I let myself be troubled by those who believe I cannot be an expert on Art with a proper opinion, if I don’t go to all the ‘landmark’ cultural events. I try not to let art snobs like Jonathan Jones dictate which cultural events are or aren’t worthy of attention.

To conclude, History of Art as an academic discipline still has serious issues. Real History of Art should recognise that Art has a specific historical origin, and not treat it like a mysterious (mythical) part of ‘Human Nature’. 

To do leftist History of Art, nevertheless, we need to take this even one step further and study the consequences of the capitalist origins of this phenomenon and how it developed from there. The impacts of its structure, the way it works, how it legitimises itself, its weaknesses, all these should be analysed in ways that will allow this phenomenon to be coherently perceived through a left-wing lens, subsequently enabling us to imagine viable alternatives to the current Art system (Richard Sennett does something like this in his book The Craftsman. If you don’t feel like reading, he also explains it beautifully in his lectures on craftsmanship available on youtube).

Also, I feel like I should mention that the mythical treatment Art historians give their subject, either emphatically and intentionally or through the passive and implicit acceptance of this mythical definition, is probably one of the things that mostly contributes to the much criticised workings of our contemporary art market. Surely, one of the reasons why artworks are sold at such exorbitant prices is because what these people are buying is not just good looking paintings. These objects are being sold as the latest, most recent pieces in the important puzzle that is Human History. Once gathered all in the correct order, these pieces are thought to reveal what it means to be Human. The ‘History’ of Art I’ve been criticising here is largely responsible for the maintenance of this profitable myth, that has been giving the powerful disproportionate control over the narratives of our collective existences.

Notes:

* If you don’t have access to these texts via your public libraries, genesis online library should have it for free download, just click here and try following the links presented (they are forced to keep changing domains because certain people don’t like it when information is too accessible).

** I do believe there is something more to be said about this politicisation of aesthetics. I think it can be a very useful and interesting terminology, but it needs to be conceptualised outside of this limited ‘reality versus simulation’ framework.

*** Or, for example, of something like venal blood. All people and animals with venal blood can be said to have venal blood, despite understanding or not what this means. A culture which does not understand what we mean by ‘art’ today, cannot be said to have it (they will have other things, which they will understand in different terms, and which, I want to emphasise, are not of lesser value just because they won’t fit our ‘artistic model’).

[aotopmha]

Attack On Titan Chapter 115 Thoughts

Yeah, looking at the full chapter, Levi isn't dead.

This is frustrating to me for various reasons.

Levi's face is smashed in and it looks like one of his hands is probably unusable, as it seems like fingers were blown off of it and are stuck on the blade he was using:

Hange also dives into the water with him - with that kind of setup, I think it would feel off if he died here.

He might eventually, but that wouldn't feel as weighty to me anymore because he already survived here.

In addition, if Levi dies or survives without having any effect on the plot from here on out, all this dangling of his fate and the cliffhangers were pointless and just there for shock value to keep the readers coming back.

My least favorite part of the serum fight at the end of the Return to Shiganshina arc was how contrived it was. Both, but particularly Armin, surviving that long felt like a pretty big stretch and I think we see some of that here with Levi, too. I think his survival is a pretty big stretch because he took the Thunder Spear head on.

We know the Ackermans could possibly have healing powers since we had a possible hint like that with Mikasa back in chapter 51, so Levi could end up having this kind of healing and it could somehow save him:

We also now know they are products of Titan science, so it would "make sense", but it all still reeks of character favoratism and flies in the face of one of my favorite thematic ideas of the story: the idea that all of the lives of the characters are equally valuable and each character is treated the same way regardless of how major or minor they are. 

Unlike Levi, Armin, for example, was involved in a choice (so either way, one had to go), while this was an individual moment for only Levi alone, singling him out narrative-wise. Most of the big survival moments (Eren, Ymir, Reiner) were also related to Titan powers, making it all specifically dependant on the narrative element of the Titans and leaving the human aspect fairly grounded, only mostly limiting the impossibilities to the Titans. The serum was there the whole arc and the Titans/shifters have specific established abilities that might be twisted and turned, but are still consistent and related to prior abilities.

Armin surviving wasn't as much of a favoratism-filled of a moment to me because of these aspects (the reach/contrivance came from how the situation was set up to me, rather than the components and content of it because it went against the more grounded way of how regular human characters were treated, and I think the only other time this was stretched to it’s limits was with Erwin in chapter 50), but I also don't think Levi is a nearly as well-developed or potential-filled of a character to merit giving him more chances. I think interesting stuff could still be done with Armin and we see glimpses of that, but I don't see much of that with Levi - I think most of the potential in his character was wringed out in the Uprising arc.

He softened up and became more of a protector figure and we saw the results of that in the Return to Shiganshina arc.

Thematically, the contrast between Zeke and Levi was neat, but it was also the general contrast between the SL and Marley. Levi keeping his promise and killing the Beast Titan is also something that the whole SL (specifically those that aren't in fractions working against them at this point) is fighting for in a general sense - it’s one of the SL’s general principles that they fight to make sure all of the sacrifices made by soldiers that came before could have meaning.

There isn't much going on for Levi *specifically*. Anyone could avenge Erwin or defeat Zeke because it would have the same thematic meaning regardless of who does it.

The counter-argument to this would be that Levi had the most fleshed-out relationship with Erwin, but that doesn't really translate to actually doing anything new or interesting with his character.

Plot-wise I can accept him healing, but not completely regenerating. Again, in comparison, I think the Titan stuff with Zeke is also just fine because he actually is a shifter (and has the Founding Titan power at that, the most special of them all) and the whole point of the story and the Titans is that we don't know much about them - not even the characters that know the most about them don't know everything.

This is why I was okay with Reiner surviving in the Shiganshina arc, too. The characters and, by proxy, we, didn’t know everything about his and the others’ powers, that was the point. Their survivals are, again, dependant on the established rules of the Titan element of the series. You could argue there may have also been some reaching with these cases (Reiner in the Shiganshina arc and Zeke here), too, but it is also backed by smart plotting in a different sense - by the fundemental plot design of the series, which is actually a unexpectedly thoughtful detail when it comes to writing.

Many stories don’t actually make the inherit plot structure of the story as part of the thematic point of the story, and you could still see it as an cheap excuse, but I always appreciate whenever that happens because I feel like it shows the writer’s self-awareness and that they are actually thinking about the story and how it would have as few holes as possible. It might seem cheap on the surface, but it’s also smart in it’s own way.

Moving on, though, technically the Ackermans are related to the Titans, but the connection seems to be intended to be pretty loose, so anything that reveals a bigger similarity than just a vague connection automatically feels like a reach to get the plot where it needs to go to me.

I have that problem with the more magical-leaning abilities of the Titans, too - how did we get from regeneration and creating armour to memory manipulation and rewriting the DNA of a whole race?

If they actually turn out to be the same, this is another huge reach and something I am getting tired of - at this point, every Eldian might as well turn out to be a super soldier because they all have a loose connection to the Titans. I could deal with some of the reaches because they were exceptions and they weren’t as big leaps of logic. If these exceptions grow numerous, I can't believe in any of the established rules of the story anymore, be it the point of the plotting or not. There has to be some rhyme and reason to everything from a storytelling POV. 

On the other hand, though, I love AoT's wierd and grotesque imagery and along with that we got some possible details about the Titans, specifically the “paths” cleared up. The whole scene of Zeke regenerating with the help of the mindless Titan was really interesting, nasty and creepy.

I think it also makes it much more likely that Ymir could actually be alive by the end of the story.

Since not being absorbed into a Titan requires willpower and all Eldians are part of a big Titan "mass", the “paths” could work like Evangelion's LCL where a strong will allows the person to not be absorbed into this giant hivemind and remain their own person - it seems something like an invisible network of all of the Titan Shifters and mindless Titans of the past, present and future, maybe even all Eldians - though that's a less certain possibility to me. We know the matter that appears when the shifter transforms also comes from that network (as we learn from Kruger first and for now have confirmed by Xaver):

(Chapter 114)

How the matter is stored, created or appears at all is another thing entirely, but I feel like that’s how the “paths” thing works in the basics, looking at everything we know as of this chapter. So because they are all technically of the same flesh, the mindless Titan could reform Zeke’s body.

Basically, if her death wasn't a fakeout, Ymir (or any other shifter) might technically be able reform themselves, given a strong enough will and presence of appropriate flesh. The current shifters fighting the wills of the previous ones to be reformed back to their own bodies has always been a interesting idea with a bunch of character development/exploration potential to me - such as Eren fighting with the First King/his father/Frieda/Kruger/Tybur (man, he has like 5 people in there at this point), Armin fighting with Bertholdt, Ymir fighting with Porco and so on.

If it’s not something like this specifically, then I feel like these details would be relevant somehow anyway.

Finally, we have the Eren stuff. While talking with Zeke, he basically goes against everything he believed in prior to the development of his more pragmatic perspective.

It's either his father's memories and the moment in the cave having more of an effect on him than we thought or judging by his calm demeanor, him actually appealing to Zeke and manipulating him. In both cases he needs to be smacked.

In the former case, it's him agreeing with Zeke because of his hyperfocus on the moment he went through in the cave and Eren not really having truly grown past it.

In the latter case, I think his plan might actually be to rewrite the Eldians so they wouldn't have the Titan ability anymore.

One steals even more of the freedom of the Eldian people from them by denying their continued existence. The other takes away their only ability to protect themselves against the much better technology of the rest of the world and lessens their chance of survival even more, even if it removes the Titans from the world.

I think Mikasa, Armin and everyone else have to reach Eren and return the favor he did for them - telling him to fight again.

Also, hi there Pieck, I'm curious what you're planning to do.

This was a pretty alright chapter - I wish Levi died because I think it would've been a much better writing choice in comparison to the options we have now - if he dies later, I feel like it wouldn’t have the same weight, if he miraculously recovers, it's a massive stretch, if he is injured and gets no plot importance from this point on, this was all pointless shock value drama and if he pulls some miracle stunts while injured, it's also a pretty big stretch.

I think a swift death by the hands of Zeke would've been much more thematically powerful and interesting in comparison to the alternatives we seem to have now.

The most optimal option with the current situation I see is Levi mattering in a stealthy way - with a seemingly small action that matters a lot.

I guess prove me wrong and make this good, AoT, you've done it before.

I found everything else pretty interesting, though.

This back and forth between who is manipulating who between Eren and Zeke is the longest, most dragged-out seesaw game ever. It drags, but I still want to know where it eventually goes.

It might be Eren still not having moved past his moment in the cave or it might be him manipulating Zeke. These are the two options I see, but I’m not entirely sure which I lean towards because both have some holes. Maybe slightly more towards the first option because I feel like his talk with Zeke is more consistent with his talk in the cave, but I’m not sure.

The details about the paths through the Zeke scene were nice and actually did possibly tie up some loose ends about how the Titans work, just like all the info in the previous chapter.

This is such a strange chapter to me as a result. Great, interesting stuff and not so great stuff together and much of it's quality also being dependant on how it all pans out in the long run.

We'll see.

[geopolicraticus]

Whack-a -Mole and Westphalian Sovereignty

Cuius regio, eius religio

The origins of the political institution that we know as the nation-state are to be found in the Treaty of Westphalia, which brought an end of the Thirty Years War. One of the principles enshrined in the Treaty of Westphalia came to be known as Cuius regio, eius religio, which means, “Whose realm, his religion.” In other words, the secular ruler of a state had the power to determine what religious confession would be adopted throughout the geographical extent of that state. This was, in a sense, a fusion of the territorial principle in law with the confessional pluralism that was the de facto outcome of the Reformation in Europe. 

Institutional religion is no longer the central pillar of statecraft that it was in the 17th century (and before that time) and the concept of Westphalian sovereignty that grew out of the Treaty of Westphalia has repeatedly mutated and adapted to changed political circumstances, and thus has remained relevant to the institution of the nation-state despite all of the changes that have transformed the world since the foundation of the nation-state system, including the maturation of the scientific revolution, the political revolutions of 1776 and 1789, and the industrial revolution (what I call the Three Revolutions, which, taken together, define modernity). Westphalian sovereignty has survived these transformations by passing the power of princes to the permanent élite ruling class of liberal democracies, and by substituting ideology for religion. 

The Secularization of Westphalian Sovereignty

The Stalinist expression of Westphalian sovereignty (which I discussed in The Stalin Doctrine) illustrates both the durability and adaptability of the concept:

“This war is not as in the past; whoever occupies a territory also imposes on it his own social system. Everyone imposes his own system as far as his army can reach. It cannot be otherwise. If now there is not a communist government in Paris, the cause of this is Russia has no army that can reach Paris in 1945.”  

Stalin’s command of history is here shown to be wanting, as this does not express a deviation from the past, but rather confirms the model of the past since the convergence on Westphalian sovereignty: those in control of the apparatus of the nation-state get to call the shots within the geographical territory of the nation-state (as well as protectorates that constitute the effective scope of military operations of the nation-state in question).

Arguably, the logic of Westphalian sovereignty achieved near-total dominance in Soviet Russia under Stalin. Even in a totalitarian communist dictatorship, the Soviet police state could not eliminate the appearance of dissidents, but wherever these dissidents appeared, they could and would be swatted down. And in the case of Trotsky’s assassination, the tendrils of the Soviet secret police reached all the way into Mexico—a nation-state in which the rule of law was so lacking that Mexican authorities could not prevent another nation-state from conducting an assassination on its soil (though Mexican authorities did capture and jail the assassin).

The oppressive Soviet regime, and its client regimes throughout the world, had to play political whack-a-mole for as long as they were in existence. The very oppressiveness of the system created resistance where a less totalitarian system would have not generated a similar number of dissidents. Ordinary individuals going about the ordinary business of life, and who had no wish to engage in a political struggle, found themselves engaged in political resistance.

Throughout the Soviet period those who wished to know what censors did not want them to know had to play a continual cat-and-mouse game with the authorities, attempting to read books or watch or listen to broadcasts forbidden within the nation-state. The East German Stasi would walk over the rooftops of buildings in East Berlin and destroy antennae that had been erected to receive Voice of America broadcasts from West Germany. And they would also trace the wires of these antennae to particular apartments, if they could, in order to detain and interrogate anyone bold enough to risk putting up an antenna.

Cold War Dissidents and Samizdat

I have a very clear memory of reading stories about dissidents in the Soviet Bloc when I was a child during the Cold War. I would never have imagined that the time would come in my own lifetime that individuals and groups in western nation-states would engage in the same cat-and-mouse game with censors that those in the Warsaw Pact nation-states had to endure during the Cold War. Nevertheless, that is the world we now live in. Political whack-a-mole has come to Europe and North America, though rather than government censors and secret police, we have private censors at social media companies and outrage mobs that brigade individuals, bullying them into silence and attempting to intimidate them off platforms.  

As the nation-state gradually cedes its power to private industry, NGOs, and mass man made manifest through the mass medium of the internet, those who hold the power in the nation-state, and those whose views dictate the prevailing culture within the geographical region of the nation-state, act as the enforcing authority for the ideology they represent. 

We also have European governments detaining, questioning, and sometimes convicting and jailing individuals for expressing their opinions on social media. Politically motivated prosecutions bring the full weight of the government down upon private citizens who would be protected under libel and slander laws if a private entity were to abuse them to a far lesser degree. 

As in whack-a-mole, each time the censors—public and private—come down on content deemed to be offensive or hateful, it disappears or is deplatformed, but, since we know that the internet never forgets, it likely pops up again somewhere else on the internet. In the world of digital samizdat, one learns first of all to save one’s own copy of any controversial material, because it may well be unavailable tomorrow.

Controversial Youtubers put their content up only long enough for it to be downloaded by others, because if they leave it up, their channels will receive “strikes,” and if you receive three strikes within a given period, your Youtube channel is permanently banned. The technology industry powers-that-be have managed to nearly push Alex Jones off the internet, unpersonning him to the extent they are able. Large banks and credit card processing businesses have played a crucial role in this process of deplatforming and unpersonning by refusing to handle payments for individuals and groups deemed to be too controversial. 

After the recent massacre in New Zealand, NPC “opinion makers” bent every effort to make the shooter’s manifesto unavailable, and while they certainly did make it difficult to find, I did eventually find it, and I didn’t have to go to the dark web to do so. Having read the Unabomber’s manifesto and Abu Bakr Naji’s The Management of Savagery and Anders Behring Breivik’s manifesto and even the Virginia Tech shooter’s manifesto, I was not going to be easily turned aside from also reading the New Zealand shooter’s manifesto.

Success and Failure of the Whack-a-Mole Strategy

Is political whack-a-mole a winning strategy or a failing strategy? This depends upon a great many circumstances surrounding the political regime in question and its dissidents. Sometimes it works, sometimes it works temporarily, and sometimes it fails.

Before Westphalian sovereignty, the Roman Empire played whack-a-mole with the Christians, and the strategy failed so spectacularly that the Roman Empire became Christian in its turn. If the Romans had escalated from persecution to extirpation, and utterly annihilated the Christians throughout the empire, that probably would have been it for western Christianity. However, the Roman authorities lacked the stomach to take such measures, and, even if they had, it might have been another eastern mystery religion (maybe Mithraism) that would have won the hearts and minds of the Roman populace.

Christianity grew rapidly under the “Five Good Emperors,” so that life was good and few saw the Christians as a serious threat. I will bet that fewer still, when times are good, would support the kind of brutally repressive measures that would have been required to successfully suppress Christianity. It took three hundred years for the Christians to come into power in Rome, so that one could argue that the whack-a-mole strategy was a successful effort in delaying the Christian takeover of the Roman state. 

Also before Westphalian sovereignty, Christian authorities played whack-a-mole with heretics, but, unlike the Romans, were largely successful in suppressing heresies (at least, until the Protestant Reformation). When Bishop of Paris Etienne Tempier issued his condemnations of 1277 this action was largely successful in ending the careers of many of the “Latin Averroist” philosophers at the University of Paris. Here it was the institutional church, and not the nation-state, that acted as the authority invested with the right to suppress dissidents, and the church was an “international” institution of sorts. The church was unable to stop the spread of Aristotle’s ideas, but they did largely contain the exposition of these ideas to mostly orthodox philosophers. There was, at the time, both élite and popular support for the policing of orthodoxy, so that a mere proclamation was sufficient to slap down the Aristotelian moles. 

Above I discussed political whack-a-mole in the context of the Soviet bloc. Was this successful? It was successful in so far as it limited the influence of dissidents, and one could argue that it was economic reality that ended the Soviet bloc and not the actions of dissidents. The Soviets made being a dissident risky and potentially disastrous, which didn’t stop the dissidents from popping up, but it may have made the regime more viable than it would have been otherwise.

The governments of Rhodesia and apartheid South Africa played whack-a-mole with their dissidents, and, again, as with the Soviet bloc, it wasn’t the dissidents who brought down these regimes. It was concerted and unified international pressure that resulted in the collapse of Rhodesia and South Africa, not the “armed struggle” that continued at a manageable level. Fifty years of civil war did not topple the government of Colombia, so we know that low level military action can continue for decades with little consequence. 

Lessons Learned

Are there any lessons to be learned from political whack-a-mole as a strategy for policing Westphalian sovereignty? Given the radically different outcomes of different nation-states, contingent circumstances seem to play a decisive role in the success or failure of the dissident whack-a-mole strategy. If authorities come down too hard on dissidents, the populace may sympathize with them as underdogs. If authorities fail to come down on dissidents, the dissidents may come into power and become the new authorities. This fits with whack-a-mole as a strategy of management and containment, not a strategy of outright defeating the opponent.

However, managing dissidents means tolerating dissidents, and if the dissidents represent the authentic feelings of the people, the dissidents will eventually win unless they are utterly eliminated. However, a strategy of annihilation of dissidents risks definitively losing the hearts and minds of the populace as innocents inevitably get caught up in the violence and are destroyed along with the dissidents.

There is almost no liberal democratic government in the world today that has the stomach to extirpate its dissidents, thus their whack-a-mole strategies are betting on effective management of dissidents, which is in turn betting on the idea that the authorities represent the authentic feelings of the populace. While this latter idea ought to be taken for granted in the case of liberal democracies devoted to popular sovereignty, one of the most interesting political developments of our time is that of the governments of liberal democracies experiencing a growing disconnect with their electorates (the permanent élite ruling class of liberal democracies is out of touch with the populace that they presumptively represent). How this came about, and what it portends for the future, is a large and complex discussion for another time, but what it portends for the management of dissidents ought to be clear.

[theonceoverthinker]

OUAT 2X22 - And Straight On ‘Til Morning

Despite all the mourning from the last episode, we’re gonna go straight on ‘til we finish off this season.

...Wanted to make my last pun of the season classy. Now you know what to do.

Press Release The inhabitants of Storybrooke brace themselves for the end when Greg and Tamara detonate the trigger Regina had placed within the curse, with the annihilation of the town and its residents imminent; and Mr. Gold mourns the loss of his son, Bae/Neal. Meanwhile, back in Neverland of the past, Hook discovers his connection to a young Bae after he rescues him from the sea and soon realizes that the Lost Boys are in hot pursuit of the boy. General Thoughts - Characters/Stories/Themes and Their Effectiveness Past I really struggled with how I felt about the past segment. Something about this flashback has always rubbed me the wrong way (Or at least, as much as the two times I’ve watched it can do) and I spent the lesser part of two days wondering why. And I think I finally figured it out.

The actions and broad strokes of this storyline are great, as is admittedly much of the dialogue. I like the bond that forms between Killian and Bae and I like how Killian’s framed. The dialogue is for the most part pretty good and I love all the time we get to spend on the Jolly Roger. However, the thematically heavy lines like “being alone” and “caring only about yourself” are honestly so distracting because Killian’s is blatantly committing revenge on Milah’s behalf and he has a whole crew with him.

Now on one hand, I get it. Especially given Killian’s decision at the end of the flashback, one can argue that Killian’s revenge and the decisions stemming from it are more for his sake than Milah’s. It’s similar to what Regina was doing with Snow and her subjects, where she claimed that after she killed Snow, she’d show them love. On the other hand, as I said before, it’s honestly so distracting and I feel like if the above were the case, there would’ve been more to paint it that way.

Okay, so now that I’ve gotten that out of my system, just remember: The segment is good, but dialogue choices like that separate good from great. The drama between Killian and Bae is one of the most important parts of Killian’s redemption and their bonding provides serious insight into who Killian is as a character.  Present First off, I love the way Neal’s “death” was handled. First, let’s talk about the acting. Robert Carlyle continues to be flawless. He shows how Rumple’s overcome with sadness and regret immediately upon hearing the news. Second, I love how he’s paralleled against Henry. While Henry has his mother to lean on and hold (A great if not tragic Swan Believer moment in and of itself), despite being told the news by two people, Rumple’s in the shot where he first takes it in alone and only comforted from a distance. Third, it gets Rumple questioning his own philosophy and is one of the biggest cases of “all magic has a price” being turned on him. It’s nothing short of a spiral and the way he pulls everyone down with him fits the character so well.

I got so many Spongebob Musical feels as I was thinking about the main story here. XD I’m going to explain it when I get to arcs, but I think that the main story does a good job bringing together Emma, Regina, Henry, Snow, and David’s stories. Every emotion here hits and the main story, which seemed to rightly get the most focus, was handled well.

Keep that in mind when I go off here.

”I did it [Kill Cora] because it was easy. It was a mistake.” FUCK THAT NOISE! NO! IT WASN’T EASY! IT WAS ACTUALLY BOTH DIFFICULT IN EXECUTION AND IN ITS AFTER EFFECTS! It was cruel, sure. And I get the guilt, but honestly, it was Cora (An uncontrollable monster) or Rumple (Someone who had been persuaded to do good in the past and could in the future AND had two morality pets to keep him on the straight and narrow). Fuck the noise where this was a wrong decision and that GOD this is the last instance where Snow says something like that! “There were other paths -- harder paths.” AND THEY WOULD’VE RESULTED IN MASS MURDERS ALL AROUND. FUCK! The ONLY good thing about that shitty flashback in “The Cricket Game” was that you supposedly learned that this idea was bullshit and you just threw that idea out like a dirty diaper! FUCK THIS SET OF LINES! It’s especially infuriating because it comes in the middle of a GREAT Snow scene where her optimism and leadership are so well shown!

Finally, What’s interesting to me is how Killian immediately dismisses Emma’s speech about being alone and being part of something by asking “Why are you really doing this?” Bae, being dead and Henry no longer having a father, is the spark that becomes the flame of his redemption. I’m with @sab031794 with the idea that Bae is definitely his turning point, while Emma’s words further the point, something he appreciates. Insights - Stream of Consciousness -Was there ever a concrete answer as to who drew the Milah drawing? Was it Killian? Milah herself? Like one of the people at theme park who paints people? -SMEE!! So by this point, is Smee Killian’s first mate or is he still just a regular crew member? Also, got to hand it to Smee for his faith in Killian. Smee’s a scared dude, so to see him with so much resolve in his voice as he tells Killian that they’ll avenge Milah, it’s so much bigger of a moment! -I didn’t realize how closely this episode borders on child trafficking until now! Dark. -I’ll never quite be over the way Bae’s eyes pop when he tells someone what happened to his father. Powerful! -It’s great seeing Killian piece together the puzzle that’s this new boy and immediately making a plan upon realizing just who he is. -It’s so creepy seeing how having only Lacey to depend on as a morality chain can corrupt Rumple so much. Hurting Henry to save himself at the very least was a point he was torn on when he first found Neal and learned the truth about his and Henry’s relation. But as he sees Henry on the swing, he’s so close to giving in and killing Henry. (Okay, someone write a dark ass fic where this happens. Henry dies and Emma goes crazy trying to figure out if his death was an accident or not. Can you IMAGINE the final confrontation there?!) Also, I refuse to believe it’s a coincidence that it’s David that snaps him out of it. Sheep Bros to the rescue! -Colin acts that last scene in the mine so freakin’ well! Like, less than three minutes later, that’s gonna turn out to be horseshit, but he sells that so believably! -I will say, while I don’t like a lot of platitudes this season, I’m cool with Henry’s “work together” schtick. -David, that was an amazing punch! XD -WHAT AN EXCELLENT REGAL BELIEVER SCENE! Once again, Regina apologizes to Henry and it’s very sincere. She’s not blaming anyone and is saying that it’s she who failed to live up to his standards. And Henry’s reaction does not absolve her, but lets her know that he loves her. THAT is GOOD! -”The things we do for our children.” This is kind of a weird line. -I love how it’s so obvious that this Pan is “him” and they are doing every backflip to make this a killer twist. -Oh My God! Felix is trying to be so menacing and it is just the HAMMIEST thing ever! XD I love it! It’s not appropriate at all to the mood they’re setting, but fuck it! I love it! -Grumpy, that is the best cup I have ever seen! I can’t even blame you for taking it back for Sneezy (And then maybe channel your inner-Stealthy and take it for yourself)! -I’ve been trying to do a count of the number of men in KIllian’s crew. So far, I’ve seen at most six pirates (Killian and Smee included). Does anyone have a better count? -Left is port, right is starboard. I don’t know why, but I always forget it. Hopefully, Captain Hook will be able to help me remember! -It’s interesting to me how Killian, even when he was just using Bae, used a real and vulnerable part of his life to relate to him. It’s great insight into Killian’s life and a subtle nudge in the direction of Killian coming to care for Bae even before the truly touching moment on the scene hits. -I do have to wonder, why does Killian want to live so badly? During “The Outsider,” Killian was more than willing to die so that he could return to Milah, but he wouldn’t have even killed Rumple then (though one could argue that he’d at least leave a black mark on Rumple and Belle’s relationship). Here, he’d be killing Rumple and there’s no sign he care about saving anyone else. -”I’m not your mate.” Give it a season, Davey! -Emma and Regina work brilliantly together here. There’s such a softness to Regina sacrifice and the way Emma tries to fight against what looks to be the inevitable. It’s a great testament to their dynamic. -Wow! The CG for the destruction of Storybrooke is awful! XD -Farewell, Lacey. I hardly knew ye. -Snow, that is not all of Storybrooke. That’s not even a quarter of Storybrooke. There should be a giant ass crowd of people, not just your besties! -The moment when Bae is told the truth of his mother by Killian is so powerful! There’s so much rage, passion, and love, all of it left on on the floor in the scene. -”I’ll track them down in Hell if I have to.” Granted it’s not regarding the same character, but give it a few seasons, Emma! -”There’s no way. I spent a lifetime trying to cross worlds to find my son.” Hindsight makes that line utterly hysterical! -Rumple! Let Belle help! Get some other stooge to cast the protection spell! Belle’s such a good tracker! -Why is this goodbye making me flashforward to Belle’s death?! *bawls* -GOLDEN HOOK WORKING TOGETHER!!! That look they exchange as they understand the map’s destination! YES! I’M FILLED WITH THE POWER OF YESSSSSS! Arcs - How are These Storylines Progressing? Regina’s Redemption - Regina’s redemption was handled masterfully in this episode. The focus of it was put on Henry. As the inevitability of the end hits her, all she can and does focus on is keeping Henry alive. But that’s not all. Her acceptance of ehr bad reputation being her own fault goes a long way towards washing away the exasperation from the last few episodes away. Her sacrifice works on every level, reinfusing sympathy into Regina without it feeling out of character because of the sharp focus on Henry. Rumple’s Redemption - So like usual, Rumple takes one step back and one step forward, and I felt that it mostly worked. I say mostly because I don’t really get how Lacey attempting to use Bae’s shawl is the turning point for Rumple using the memory potion on Lacey. It’s not like Lacey used the shawl maliciously and she even apologized for it. Was it so she could help him grieve? If so, I wish it came across better. That said, I like the effect that Lacey has been corrupting Rumple, but he realizes that he both needs Belle in her real state and that his thoughts of murdering Henry are awful and need to be shunted. At the same time, he’s not willing to lend a finger to help with the end of the world. Killian’s Redemption - What’s interesting to me is how early on in this episode, Killian is pointed at for not believing in something by Tamara, and when he does turn, Killian himself is one of the most belief-heavy people on the show! Additionally, in the flashback, Killian is so belief-heavy, believing that he can get his revenge on the Dark One and later that he and Bae can fill the empty holes in their hearts. But aside from that, Killian’s turn around is actually pretty simply set up for a sympathetic character. First, it comes through in the decision to go to the heroes to help stop the diamond, knowing they’re more effective. Second, it’s of course the decision to turn his ship around. It represents Killian’s decision to start caring again, allowing himself in a way to be reborn. Emma Accepting Her Parents - “Mom...Dad…” ...Do I even need to say any more? ...Well, apart from the fact that it’s a great closing out of the arc in the beginning of the season, it’s also a PHENOMENAL setup for the events of Season 3. Greg and Tamara - Greg and Tamara kind of get stupid in this finale upon revealing that they don’t know who runs the home office and all the deflectation that takes place when Killian questions them. Really? A group of people who supposedly value science over magic wouldn’t ask who their boss is? Favorite Dynamic Emma and Regina - Emma and Regina are amazing to watch. The episode doesn’t pretend that they’re friends or even that they like each other all that much, but that their bond over Henry is powerful enough that they can overcome those facts and at least start in that direction. For the first time, I feel these two come together as real mothers. They act in Henry’s best interests and that includes saving the other, being honest to Henry, and portraying the other in a good light. Darker Elements (TW: Mention of Child Trafficking) I’ve seen it be said that Killian’s decision to abandon Baelfire was the most evil moment of his life. While I’m not sure how much I believe that, I must point out how this is as close to child trafficking as OUAT can ever get without outright saying it, and that is fucking dark. While trying to examine my own feelings on the issue, I think in terms of the show, because of the fantastical distance of the child trafficking being conducted in an equally fantastical way by a pirate with a hook for a hand and a set of children in cloaks putting a boy in a dinghy to take him to Peter Pan, it’s different than other instances of Darker Elements that I’ve already touched on. If a woman is assaulted or someone is raped by deception, the resonance with the treatment of women and the realities of sexual assault, especially in our modern political climate, makes it difficult to cloud with fantastical elements. And I’m not saying trafficking isn’t, but it’s not something a large portion of OUAT’s audience sees on a constant basis.

Writer A&E are as usual in charge of the finale, and honestly, while well delivered, I expected better. So much of the dialogue works, and that makes the fact that some of the crucial dialogue doesn’t hurt so badly. I feel like they were trying to make square pegs fit in round holes when they talk about things like Killian choosing to be alone and how kiling Cora was easy and and how Rumple decides to turn back Belle because Lacey accidentally used Bae’s shawl as a napkin. it almost overshadows the genuinely good dialogue in other places and I feel like with another draft, those problems would either be minimized or non existent. It pains me how this episode reminds me in a lot of respects more of “The Heart is a Lonely Hunter” (My current least favorite episode of the series) than some of their better episodes like “Broken.” Rating 8/10. I’ve been torn on ratings before, but never quite like this. So much of the Season 2 finale does work, but it does have failings and they chip away. However, I’ve gone on about some of the dialogue choices enough. Let’s talk about the good stuff. This episode is a good culmination point for so many of the arcs started and presents a good jumping off point for them to be furthered in the next season. It’s entertaining to watch emotionally resonates where it counts. It’s dark, but optimistic and has that Once-y feel! Flip My Ship - Home of All Things “Shippy Goodness” Swan Fire - We get to see some pretty sad and yet hopeful Swan Fire stuff. Emma is barely able to mourn Neal’s loss, but when she tells Henry and Killian the truth, you really feel the grief she’s going through. And then Neal’s alive! Swan Queen - It was so great seeing Emma and Regina working together! You really feel for the emotional bond they’ve formed as they fight off the diamond and it’s gotta be said that there’s a serious weight to the fact that the two of them together managed to fight off something that neither thought possible. Captain Swan - I feel like Emma and Killian really get their deserved start here. Emma not only tries to get her bean back, but tries to invite him to the hero squad with as much effort as she can given all else on her plate. And while it initially doesn’t work, Emma’s speech does find its resonance with Killian through remembering of his love for Bae. Rumbelle - My thoughts on how Rumple decided to use the potion aside, the moment where Belle comes back and they kiss is beautiful and heartwarming, as is their goodbye at the docks. Grumpy Beauty - Grumpy went out of his way as they were all gonna die to get another memory potion to restore Belle! That is so cute!!! I love this ship!!! There’s also such a real feeling of sacrifice as Rumple sees Belle off before his trip to Neverland. ()()()()()()()()() Oh My God! Season 2 is completed!!! Well, sort of! Like last season, I’m going to do my overview where I talk about everything from the quality of the season itself to the best dynamics to who was the best writer! I hope you’ll join me for it because it’s gonna be a lot of fun!

Thank you all for reading and to the fine folks at @watchingfairytales! Couldn’t have done it without you!

See you next time!

Season 2 Tally (194/220) Writer Tally for Season 2: Adam Horowitz and Edward Kitsis: (58/60)* Jane Espenson (44/50)* Andrew Chambliss and Ian Goldberg (40/50)* David Goodman (24/30)* Robert Hull (24/30)* Christine Boylan (26/30)* Kalinda Vazquez (28/30)* Daniel Thomsen (18/20)* * Indicates that their work for the season is complete Operation Rewatch Archives

[7classyantiquestores]

Citadel Survival Status

Does anyone on the Citadel make it out of the end of Mass Effect 3?

Considering the amount of time spent there through the series, this is a question that crosses my mind each time I see the Citadel’s ostensible destruction at the game’s end. As a result, I sat down and thought about it, to finally settle the question...for me anyways. 

The way I see it, the Citadel has three checks it has to pass to realistically survive: the initial invasion by the Reapers, time occupied, and the use of the Crucible.

Initial Invasion

First of all, the Reapers had to seize control of the Citadel by force. Force which they, of course, possess in immense quantity. Considering how easily they obliterated numerous other advanced defenses, things look pretty bad for the Citadel from the get-go. But the big thing here is this: did the Reapers actually bring full force to bear? Did they use total war fare? I’d argue they didn’t. At first, anyways. 

The main argument is the speed with which they took the station. The Reapers might be strong, but it took them weeks to take Earth, Palavan, and Thessia, and these could be considered ultimately less defensible positions than the Citadel. The Citadel is isolated in space, and if you collect all associated assets, it is outfitted with a robust C-Sec of many thousands, a well-prepared Citadel Defense Force (CDF), a civilian militia, and probably thousands of special forces from each race stationed to protect political interests. And this isn’t to mention the obscene numbers of refugees (not a small portion of whom were combatants like the Turians and Batarians), as well as mercenary groups and gangs who (although illicit) would be well armed. 

You get the picture. Although these forces could easily be overcome by the Reapers eventually, the fact is that without causing immense damage to the Citadel, the Reapers would be forced into fighting a ground war. No way they took total control like that in the amount of time shown in the game. More likely, their strategy would look a lot like Saren and his forces in ME1. Controlling the Citadel only means taking and holding a very small portion of it in the Presidium. Their forces would probably have been distributed thinly over the Citadel for crowd control, but ultimately the galactic armada collected by Shepard poses the greater threat, and deserves greater allocation of troops. 

Although the initial invasion and following ground war would cost the Citadel thousands of lives, the numbers could be minimized by time-pressed, distracted Reapers and a properly prepared CDF. 

Check Status: Passed

Reaper Occupation

The ongoing ground war would be further costly, but it’s easy to believe that the forces described above would be sufficient to cause the Reapers some pause. Maybe it’s reading into it, but even after its capture by the Reapers, the CDF still counts as a war asset. A logical conclusion is that the Reapers are fighting resistance from inside the station. In order to have resistance versus the Reapers, there must be a substantial number of survivors. It’s also logical to assume there would be “safe zones” designed into defense plans, where non-combatants could be more easily defended. This, plus full frontal assaults from Earth and Shepard’s armada would keep the bulk of Reaper forces occupied elsewhere. 

As a war of attrition, combatants in the CDF would suffer heavy casualties here, but maybe not as high as otherwise possible. And although Shepard is met by piles of bodies upon entering the Citadel through the Conduit, it is probable most or all of these are from Earth, not the Citadel, based on descriptions in the game.

Check Status: Passed

Firing the Crucible

This is hard to cover, especially since it can depend on the ending. In the Control ending, no damage appears to come to the Citadel at all, making this an automatic pass. In the other endings, however, it’s a different story. When the Crucible is used, we can see a number of micro explosions occur over the surface of the Citadel, and large portions break off, similar to the Mass Relays. No way around it, we’re looking at some pretty devastating losses right there.

That said, there are a few things going for the Citadel. As a space station, it’s sure to have numerous redundant life support systems. A shot in the Destroy ending gives a decent shot of the station, and it would appear that the damage, while extensive, is not complete. Large sections remain intact, not unlikely to still be protected with local life support, and if you look close, you can even see lights on in some buildings. Also in the Destroy ending, we see a totally rebuilt Citadel. This would suggest that the damage was bad, but not systematic, and that a decent amount of the population survived (partly because without the Keepers, it’s doubtful the station would run properly; plus, total death would make it too much of a heartache to re-purpose).

I’d say we’re looking at maybe half lost of survivors up to this point, maybe more, maybe less. It depends on whether the population was evenly dispersed across the area, or bunched in “safe zones” like mentioned earlier. If the latter, it’s possible larger numbers survived by virtue of chance - maybe that bit didn’t blow - or vice versa. 

Check Status: Passed?

TL;DR

Best case: 2/3 to 3/4 total population survival. 

Worst case: 1/4 or less population survival. 

In any case: There appears to always be a way for some Citadel inhabitants to survive. 

[stoopjuice-blog]

The Fastest Way To Build The Wall In 2019

The Fastest Way To Build The Wall In 2019 The fastest way to build the wall and promote my bleak outlook for 2019 is to seek-out factual information that confirms my biases. I’d encourage people to read Upton Sinclair’s the Jungle to illustrate the news media’s birth through mercantilism and yellow journalism. This early playbook of blatant lies and omissions are being reenacted today by Donald Trump and his administration’s muckraking, while the 50 articles I’ve written on LinkedIn to encourage self reliance and mobilization go mostly unread.  Could this be the reason why so many well intentioned individuals who oppose the Trump administration opt for the road of least resistance?

Media

Before the printing press was invented, word of mouth was the primary source of news. Returning merchants, sailors and travelers brought news back to the mainland, and this was then picked up by peddlers and traveling merchants and spread from town to town. This transmission of news was highly unreliable, and died out with the invention of the printing press. By 1400, businessmen in Italian and German cities were compiling hand written chronicles of important news events, and circulating them to their business connections. The idea of using a printing press for this material first appeared in Germany around 1600. Magazines flourished after Napoleon left in 1815. Most were based in Paris and most emphasized literature, poetry and stories. They served religious, cultural and political communities. In times of political crisis they expressed and helped shape the views of their readership and thereby were major elements in the changing political culture. Theodore Roosevelt coined the term "muckraker" during a speech in 1906. He compared investigative reporters to the narrow-minded figure in John Bunyan's 17th-century religious fable, "The Pilgrim's Progress": the "man that could look no way but downwards, with a muckrake in his hand.” To others during the Progressive Era the term muckraker characterized reform-minded American journalists who attacked established institutions and leaders as corrupt. They typically had large audiences in some popular magazines. Yellow journalism or press presents little or no legitimate well-researched news while instead using eye-catching headlines for increased sales. Techniques may include exaggerations of news events, scandal-mongering, or sensationalism.

Mercantilism

Mercantilism is the economic theory that holds that the prosperity of a nation depends upon its supply of capital, and that the global trade is unchangeable. Capital is held by the state, is increased through balance of trade. Overall, they encourage exports and discourage imports, with the use of tariffs.

The 99%

Most people have an intuitive model of cooperative behavior that stems from two linked fears, one of being taken advantage of and another of under producing for lack of opportunities. Creating a way, a path, for us to work with citizens and government in a format that eliminates the ingrained fears by understanding both supply and demand is the primary goal. On the demand side, the commons situation encourages a race to the bottom by overuse—what economists call a congested–public-good problem. On the supply side, the commons rewards free-rider behavior—removing or diminishing incentives for individual actors to invest in developing more output.The tragedy of the commons predicts only three possible outcomes. One is the sea of mud. Another is for some actor with coercive power to enforce an allocation policy on behalf of the village (the socialist/communist solution). The third is for the commons to break up as village members, fence-off bits they can defend and manage sustainably.

Building The Wall

2018 witnessed 3 government shutdowns.  Currently, the President Of The United States forced the government to shutdown insisting we build a wall on the Mexico - US boarder. The support for the wall is another example of the tragedy of the commons whereas the demand for undocumented workers in certain industries in the U.S. creates incentive for others to cross the boarder which has led to the increase in illegal residents in the United States. On the supply side, many Americans don’t know what to study in college, because no one knows what skills learned at 20 will be relevant at 40. The number of these useless individual increases, not through chance but by definition diminishing incentives for this group to invest in developing additional skills in higher demand or outperforming undocumented workers in low skill work. Put another way, the fastest way Americans can build the wall is by outperforming undocumented workers in low skill industries. This will discourage others looking for work from crossing the Mexican border. Past Democratic or Republican administration’s inability to address this is partly to blame for the immigration mess we have today.

The way things are

In the real world, we are not all equal and Donald Trump is the President of The United States. Access to most opportunities are subsidized by access to wealth. This is followed by how much of the sciences, engineering, technology, management and skills of labor an individual possesses coinciding with an individual's ability to learn, understand and articulate effectively these areas of study. The fourth and final step is to make the application and utilize our aptitude and abilities on things within our power. It’s also very common for people to change the narrative they tell themselves regarding economic philosophies based upon experiences, education and self interest during their lifetime. Unfortunately, there is a serious shortage of super beings in America.

The way things should be

Instead of mimicking Donald Trump’s non-virtuous approach, we should seek to make open-source cooperation sustainable similar to what happens with software programs. Part of the answer certainly lies in the fact that using software does not decrease its value. Indeed, widespread use of open-source software tends to increase its value, as users fold in their own fixes and features (code patches). In this inverse commons, the grass grows taller when it's grazed upon.That this public good cannot be degraded by overuse takes care of half of the congested–public-goods problem. It doesn't explain why open source doesn't suffer from under provision. Why don't people who know the open-source community exists universally exhibit free-rider behavior, waiting for others to do the work they need, or (if they do the work themselves) not bothering to contribute the work back into the commons?Part of the answer lies in the fact that people don't merely need solutions, they need solutions on time. It's seldom possible to predict when someone else will finish a given piece of needed work. If the payoff from fixing a bug or adding a feature is sufficient to any potential contributor, that person will dive in and do it (at which point the fact that everyone else is a free rider becomes irrelevant).Another part of the answer lies in the fact that the putative market value of small patches to a common source base is hard to capture. Being reactive by only sitting on the patch gains nothing. Indeed, it incurs a future cost—the effort involved in re-merging the patch into the source base in each new release. So the payoff from this choice is actually negative. Suppose I wrote an article that encourages people to think and the readers find it easily accessible , and suppose many readers realize my article has a monetary value; how do I collect from all those people? We all can win if we see money for what it really is, a social construct that promotes exchange through trust. To put it more positively, by writing this article I gain from the reader’s input and potential input from different groups. I also gain because others will improve on my work in the future.

The road of least resistance 

We should enable Americans to form habitual ways to meet certain needs or solve day-to-day problems instead of reading distracting tweets from the President. Tell yourself, “greatness is the perception that virtue is enough”. Unfortunately, the common person often lacks virtue, instead we avoid looking within ourselves to make self-improvements to increase our value in the free market. The weakest rebuttal to what I propose is that no market is absolutely free; a frail objection since all things exists in the margins. I advocate for capitalism by arguing the economic pendulum should swing more in the direction of the free market in order to promote a better quality of life for the masses. Ideally, we could balance our lives, with clearly defined goals and a realistic understanding of outcome. Put another way, individuals must know and understand the probability and effectiveness of their actions in order to reach their goals. I think we need to be both constructively skeptical and virtuous while helping those in need. Since gauging need is subjective, it opens up the door for misinterpretation and disagreement regarding distribution. How do we qualify, quantify and communicate an individual’s need? Who’s the agent of interpretation? These are 5 beliefs of the current administration I disagree with that should be avoided:

1. Citizens and government want different things.

2. Technique counts more than intent.

3. Solutions have inherent value (one size fits all)

4. Donald Trump ignores Methodology 

5. World - class advocacy precedes world - class Inquiry (talking before listening) or a misinformed will to power approach.

Reversing these five key beliefs set the groundwork for a process that allows government to deal with undocumented workers and citizens in an honest, straightforward manner where we can discover all issues and needs, gather the hard information needed to create solutions that puts our country’s sustainability above all else. This can be done without wasting time and resources by avoiding redundancies by utilizing available (unbiased) data.

[nchyinotes]

Criminology Seminar Series - From Corporate Killing to Social Murder

March 1 2018

https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/criminology-seminar-series-from-corporate-killing-to-social-murder-tickets-37941422817

Speaker: Professor Steve Tombs (Department of Social Policy & Criminology, Open University)

“Corporations kill in a variety of ways across diverse sites and spheres of activity. Such killing is ubiquitous, routine and widespread – notwithstanding formal attempts by states to prevent and respond to such deaths. Focusing on a sub-set of such deaths in the UK, and state attempts to regulate these, this paper argues that these should be understood as state-corporate violence, best captured by the term ‘social murder’. Grenfell Tower has come to represent many things to many people since the tragic fire on 14th June. Prior to that date, the Tower was a home to hundreds of residents – if not, according to some of them, a particularly pleasant one. The aim of this presentation is two-fold: first, to understand the reach of states and corporations into what is often represented as a private sphere, namely the home; and, second, to better understand the mass killing at Grenfell Tower, and the ripples of harms subsequently engendered, as phenomena produced by state-corporate policy and practices.”

Thoughts: Although I was obviously aware of the Grenfell Tower happenings, I hadn’t done any in depth reading or research into it, and definitely had not analysed it from a criminological lens. Gave great background information for me to learn about what actually happened, which highlighted the horrendous failings of a state to its people, and all the different harms that the victims suffered. We touched a bit on corporate manslaughter in my final year criminology module, so it was interesting on an academic level to analyse this tragedy within the framework of corporate killing or social murder, and awareness of other examples that it brought up. It was a real shame that there weren’t many people there, because it was 100% worth going to. I attended this lecture on my birthday, and it was a great way to spend my birthday imho (Funny side story - I was walking back home in a very somber mood kind of lost in thought about this, when I found one of my friends waiting outside my apartment and I was really confused. Turns out my friends and sister had planned a surprise birthday party at my flat LOL, so that was cute too!).

Notes

Critical criminology, corporate / white collar crime

Activists working for better work conditions

Experiences of survivors/residents - not based on direct contact with; not necessary in this case because massive testimonies in public domain (verbatim testimony)

Value free social science - an illusion? Not value free, politically charged.

Different ways we can look/think at it, they’re not mutually exclusive, in fact it’s all of these things.

Grenfell tower in context

1) One of the poorest places sitting in one of the richest areas

Constituency of kensington is the wealthiest in England

RBKC is the most unequal borough in England, since 2010 the inequality has widened (Coad) - by 2017, difference in life expectancy is 22 years (and this had increased 6 years)

Grenfell Tower + Kings Road LSOA (lower super output area)

2) Fractious relationship between social housing residents across Borough and the KCTMO [set up to at an arms length manage council housing]

Conjecture / opinion: Having edificies like grenfell tower + their inhabitants is a bummer because they’re barriers to gentrification. What they what is to cleanse the borough of the poor residents.

Grenfell Action Group formed in 2010 as a way of articulating / furthering rights of residents at tower, and joined Unite Community (part of the trade union) in 2015 during refurbishment

Dangerous nature of refurbishment of tower - KCTMOs decision to replace zinc cladding with cheaper aluminum panels [more flammable], saving 293k pounds

Grenfell Action Group blog post: KCTMO - Playing with Fire! (predicted 7 months before the tragedy!)

It was the cladding which contained the fire inside the inferno

Grenfell as crime (?) - yes

Can we think of what happened there as a crime?

1. Serial killer - Whirlpool

Portrait of a serial killer [Whirlpool Corporation HQ or Hot Point?? in Benton Harbor, Michigan]

Produces electrical / hot point / dryers ??

Found out something was wrong - faulty machines? Advised you just not to leave them unattended? No product recall, compensation was offered.

→ “Shepherd’s Bush tower block fire caused by faulty tumble dryer”

Still no recall, compensation, replacement

Consumer groups have been saying not to use plastic bags for electrical goods cause they’re flammable

Trigger of Grenfell was a plastic bag fridge freezer in the native hot point

1) All Party Select committee last October - slipped out by rep of Whirlpool that they knew about defects of tumble dryer in 2006. They were selling dryers which could catch fire and kill people for 9 years before they owned up to it.

2) Information requests -- 10 deaths, 100s of serious injuries, in 10 year period associated with white goods, 50%+ were associated with hot goods

Grenfell is just another series of deaths by them

Lots of attention on residents & management, some attention on contractors, but

Whirlpool basically got off scot free

2. Corporate Manslaughter and Homicide Act - isn’t fit for purpose?

10 years after the act, only 1 medium sized company has been prosecuted

Police claim they have about 35M documents to process on way to passing charges to CPS, last year they claimed worked through about 100k

Any charges won’t be until 2019, and generally any charges under the Act have taken 3-4 years

3. Health and Safety and/or FIre Safety legislation

2009 Similar precedent / different consequences - Southwark, 6 people died. Not sufficient evidence to proceed with (manslaughter) charge.

Southwark Council fined 650k under ^^

4. Will the prosecutions achieve justice?

Many survivors just want the crime to be considered a real crime - on par with others.

Trend in 21 successful prosecutions is: deals with individual senior managers to let them off the hook, to plead guilty for corporations.

No justice against individual people.

If successful for health and safety, it’s a fine. And the money is largely through the council (tax) / residents. So the people most hit by any fine will be the poorest residents of the borough.

Don’t repare the harms

Grenfell as social harm - via various dimensions (harms produced)

Social harm captures chains of processes or states of affairs rather than merely acts. Captures all the dimensions (ripples, synergistic, cumulative + long term effects)

Physical harms

deaths

injury (burns, head, fractures)

ill health (exposure to hydrogen cyanide & asbestos - made light of, smoke inhalation)

exacerbation of existing health problems (more dependent on drugs/alcohol; chronic conditions with those impoverished - type II diabetes, chronic heart disease, childhood obesity - no control over diet in temp housing)

Emotional / psychological harms

Survivors

Grief at loss - people, pets, possessions

Recall of horrors

Guilt at survival (self harm, suicide attempts)

Being rehoused in another high rise accommodation

For local community

Constant visibility of the tower - what the means/does to them

Emergency service workers

Other communities

Living in high rise accommodation with the same/similar cladding [to be removed] - in fear of their lives (living in limbo)

Cultural / relational harms

Relocation and loss of networks [what makes life worth living? When they need it the most] - lack of access

Bare existence of temporary accommodation - no piece of mind, waiting, uncertainty - obscure experiences

Death as a result of cost-cutting and contempt (Imogen tyler: “social objection”)

Most powerful cultural harm

Their voices were not listened to by council or management

They know their friends burnt, as it happened, because they didn’t matter

For 200k cost saving, in the richest borough

Election year: The council gave rebates to top earners, sold off 2 estates for over 4M

Lack of national and local state response

Contempt was reinforced

People had to self organise (in response)

Delays, broken promises, half truths and lies

Contempt again reinforced by ^ to survivors

Eg. rehousing, chair of inquiry, home office ‘amnesty’

→ Contempt which caused the fire is the contempt that the survivors continue to be treated with

Financial and economic harm

Financial costs to households

Costs to RBKC (plus legal costs, fines) - and thus to local tax payers

??

Grenfell as social murder - in context of a (systematic) withdrawal of social protection

Grenfell as state-sanctioned violence?

Part of the withdrawal of a system of social protection - constructed since the 1830s

Deregulation and lack of enforcement from (2004) 2010 onwards, especially at local level.

Eg. numbers of inspections decreased dramatically: in health and safety at work, food safety, pollution control, fire safety

Which was put in place to mitigate the worst effects of profit making in early days of industrial capitalism

Or to prevent, as Engels (1969) called it, social murder

Social murder is the consequence of withdrawing social protection

Questions

Greatest example of corporate murder: (Bopar) India, 1984 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bhopal_disaster

Also - flint water crisis

http://time.com/4188323/michael-moore-flint-racial-crime/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/02/12/here-are-the-stunning-social-costs-of-the-flint-water-crisis/?utm_term=.86a634877060

Appropriate response?

Redress isn’t to be found through the law?

Workers health & safety will not be guaranteed in retrospective application of the law

Won’t change the fact that council doesn’t want those residents in the first place

Will be guaranteed by empowering workers collectively, through trade union organisation.

Relationship between state + companies?

Companies operating in more than one local authority - claim they never knew what compliance meant?

Primary authority scheme (by Blair) - it can reach a contractual agreement with one authority for it to be its primary. What happens is that newcastle city council becomes a buffer that protects Greggs from enforcement in all other areas.

Really important bc companies have lobbied for it, and totally changes the structurally shifts the balance of power

Market enforcement ? because lucrative for councils [ like the Amazon thing]

Whirlpool has been protected by its local council all these years

Esoteric piece of law?

Only reason it’s enforced is because of insurance companies?

Is the state / corporate bodies something that can be used progressively?

State undertaking limited functions on behalf of citizenry

While states can provide greater/less protections, and some contexts can be more/less harmful

Still in context of capitalism - individuals are more or less valuable commodities

The only way to stop corporate crime is to abolish the corporation (which is a criminogenic entity created and supported by the capitalist state)

Diane vaughan analysis of the challenger ??

They didn’t want to murder them, they just didn’t care about them

[albertoscott]

Research Blog COMM3705 Digital Media Project

Literature Review

During the development of my project, I had to investigate through various articles, the necessary steps of producing an interactive film.

First of all, the storyboarding step which is essential is argued by Mohl (1982) as being a mapping research which organizes data in displaying information in a spatial environment. Furthermore, Ellouze and other scholars (2010) explain that the video summarization system is useful since it aims to generate a reduced version of itself for its representativity, by being constructed through key frames. The key frames frequency depends on the potential user’s preference such as through the contents (Locations, Times and Persons) and types (Romance, Dialogue and Action) as well as duration. The key frames should cover the entire action without being redundant.

After understanding the point of view of these scholars, I started building my storyboard. I then decided to put on hold the sketching of each frame for a a shot-list and birds eye view sketches (available in the X-Drive). The issue with story boarding is that one drawing can take up to 30 min, in order to show the necessary details in the background and foreground. After completing the shot, list with the necessary data, such as scene details, camera angle, camera motion and actions, I had a total of 126 shots, which I was then reduced to 95. This shot-list allowed me to have a clearer overview of the overall size of the project, but the main drawbacks are that the shot can only be visualized through a description rather than being viewed from a drawing.

Once the shot-list fully completed, I started preparing the 3D assets that were required for the visual effects shots. The main assets that had to be designed was the Cybernetic Left-Hand (see Appendix), in fact Carrozza and other scholars (2006) explain that hand prosthetics are defined by functionality, which is how easy the user can grasp and manipulate objects, then the dexterity, though the degree of freedom of each finger. Moreover the control, with the amount of human sensory restoration and finally the appearance of a human hand. In my case functionality, dexterity and control helped me to outline how the model should be animated, therefore I will make the fingers move more accurately according to the actor reference hand. However, I plan to make the cybernetic hand as visible as possible, I will therefore apply a metal material and not skin textures, mainly for aesthetic purposes. Once this asset was produced, I imported other secondary models, the first one was a free hand model which removed the finger to create the stomp hand. Furthermore the ATM was also imported but I had to adjust the textures to better composit it on the footage to replicate the CCTV footage look.

During the recording, I was adapting the script, since I was constantly thinking about the meaning that this interactive experience could convey to the audience. Fearing (1949) highlights that the individual seeks an experience beyond that furnished by his immediate environment, this could be valid for picturing a story when reading a book or watching a movie, however I believe the interactivity of my movie can create a further interest to the audience. Furthermore, the main subject of the movie is the will to overcome any limits through perseverance, this can also be a factor of interest towards the audience since it can be found inspiring.

After understanding the meaning of my project, I wanted to analyse the evolution of interactivity in digital storytelling. Mohl (1982) shows the MIT created the first interactive experience, showing the City of Aspen, Colorado (USA), very similarly as Google Earth. I must admit that my project won’t achieve this level of interactivity, since the interactivity is shown through a binary choice, however I will aim to make the users fully aware of the control they have over the narrative of the story. Skains (2018) underlines the key aspects of digital storytelling, the first one being the making through visuals (including imagery and layout), and the second one being, the viewer participation, which can be the interactivity itself or a certain ability to contribute to the narrative. The third one is the navigational structures such as the interface for the choices. These features can help make the interactive digital storytelling subgenre more appealing and interesting to the public.

Competitor Analysis

The market, which my product is entering, is relatively recent and restricted, since it is part of a genre which distinct itself from the traditional non-interactive movies. However, I noticed that interactive movies have recently started to target mass audiences and gaining importance. Furthermore, the first mainstream interactive movie "I’m Your Man" by Bob Bejan published in 1992, the audience could interact in cinemas as well as in their living rooms. However it didn’t really take off, further projects in the beginning of 2000’s focusing on the video game industry have adopted the narrative storytelling, such as Half-life. However, I will make a distinction between interactive movies and video games that have an interactive story, since they have relatively different audiences.

The most recent and important competitor is Black Mirror: Bandersnatch (2018) directed by David Slade and produced by Netflix. This interactive movie utilizes a mix of branching and nodal interactive narrative (see in the Appendix), where both the author and the user have control over the movie. Bandersnatch is the biggest competitor for my project since it has a very complex story line (see in the Appendix), and the quality of the footage which was made available by a professional crew. Therefore, we can define Bandersnatch strengths as having a great imagery and a complex story line as well as being hosted on the most distributed streaming service. Howeevr, the weakness of Bandersnatch is that some viewers have judged it as being too stressful and tyring rather interesting, thus not being appreciated by the mass audience. The opportunity of this project is to be a reference for other directors that want to produce other interactive experiences. On the other hand, the threat of the movie could be its own nature, in fact it takes roughly 90 minutes to watch all the paths, or 40 minutes for the fastest ending. Therefore, if some viewers judge the movie as too stressful or too demanding, the viewer has the possibility to opt out after the first ending. However, if this happens, the interactivity, which is essential to the movie, can be disregarded. Therefore, Bandersnatch needs to seduce as quick as possible the largest range of viewers, to shocase its interactivity.

After analysing the main competitor (Bandersnatch), I will also take into consideration two other competitors, which have substantially less influence in the field of interactive motion pictures compared to Bandersnatch, but each one of them having unique characteristics.

The first one is named Possibilia (2014) directed by Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheniert, it depicts a relationship of a couple that is going through a dispute, it is essentially an interactive love story utilizing the multiverse theory, which can be explained by the creation of various universes depending on the number of choices that an individual has. The experience is made as such that all the choices are present, and can be switch between them in real time, similar to the concentric interactive narrative (see Appendix).

The particularity of Possibilia is that the dialogue as well as the set stays synchronised. However, the further the story continues, the further the scenario evolve and duplicates itself. In fact, when the subjects talk, the scenarios splits into 2 different rooms with difference emotions, the path then progressively splits to 4 and finally 8 scenarios which the user can navigate in real time. This project is interesting since it has a more original approach, thus constituting the project’s main strength. However it can also be one of its weakness as I found the evolution of the story confusing at first. Furthermore, the main threat of this project is that, even though it has an original use of interactivity, it may have less impact on the story than the classic interactive movie, since the user doesn’t influence the story, making it less appealing to the mass audience. However, this technique can be an opportunity to increase the diversity of the scenario evolution of interactive movies, inspiring other filmmakers that other forms of interactive filmmaking are possible and achievable.

Finally, Five Minutes (2014) directed by Maximilian Niemann is a short interactive movie based on a post-apocalyptic story. The interactivity that is implemented is similar to the video game mechanics where the player must perform a particular command in a short time. It is furthermore, very distinct from the traditional choice-based interaction. Furthermore, the advantage of this project is that is explores film production by including similar narrative interactions that video games such as the video game Detroit Become Human has. However, the weakness is that it is a very short experience compared to the other competitors, thus limiting its creative potential. Furthermore, as Possibilia, Five Minutes explores a new aspect of interactivity in motion pictures, by being inspired from video games mechanics. However, the threat that Five Minutes has is its commercial aim, in fact this project has been directed in order to promote a product, the G-Shock which is the main sponsor of this project, therefore the concern is that the mass audience can consider it as a advert rather than an interactive fiction.

After analysing these competitors, I will adopt the traditional user interactivity that Bandersnatch has, as I believe it is the most successful interactive movie thanks to his story and imagery. Furthermore, my project has the potential to be longer than Possibilia and Five Minutes, but the imagery may be worse due to the restrictions to high-end equipment as well as human resources.

Testing and Evaluation

Regarding for the testing and evaluation, I decided to create a survey (accessible here and in the Appendix) that will include all the various topics of the movie, such as the interactivity, the story, the characters, the visual-effects and finally the expectations that the audience had. I believe that the quantitative method approach is the most fitted for my project, since producers in large production companies such as Universal, Netflix and Warner Bros, uniquely analyse quantitative data to determine which movie should be produced, rather than studying the opinion of various individual through qualitative methods. In fact these companies will focus on a specific demand that reflect the majority of the audience in order to capitalize on the movie.

After collecting an amount of 14 responses (available here and in the Appendix), the majority (85.7%) of the viewers had a very positive response to the interactivity feature of the project.

Regarding the clarity of the story on a scale from 1 to 5, 57.1% completely understood the story (5), the rest were evenly distributed between 3 and 4. The majority (50%) agrees that there are few problems with continuity and that generally (42.9%) the action was well rhythmed. Finally, the preferred ending is the main ending, where the hero defends the girl.

Regarding the characters, they were mainly satisfactory with 42.9% of viewers that found them compelling on screen. However, the viewers have a mixed reaction to the behaviour of the characters, in fact on a scale from 1 to 5, 57.2% were satisfied with the behaviour of the characters, however 42.8% weren’t really convinced. This could be explained by the performance of the actors, which in my case weren’t professionals or theatre students, but simply friends of mine.

The post-production work was generally very well received with 57.1% that were very convinced by the Visual Effects (the other 42.8% being satisfied). The colour and mood as well as its overall aesthetic was also very appreciated (71.4%).

Finally, the expectations of the viewers were mainly focused on the dramatic aspect. Around 50% of the viewers expected the dramatic genre and wanted to have more of it. Furthermore, some viewers argued that the story choices could have been more varied to limit the dead-ends which disrupt the illusion of control that the viewer has when watching the project. Other viewers explained that the action could have been more focused on the character’s feelings, reaction, and dialogue to convey more emotion. Finally, some viewers would have wanted more shots where the prosthetic would be visible.

This data helped me to understand the strengths and weaknesses of my project, although due to the amount of work required to meet the recommendations, I couldn’t follow all of them. However, I did reshoot the last scene and composited the CGI prosthetic on a shot, thus giving more emphasis on the cybernetic hand.

References

Carrozza M.C., Cappiello, G., Micera, S. and Cipriani, C. (2006). Design of a cybernetic hand for perception and action. [online] ResearchGate. Available at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/220450234_Design_of_a_cybernetic_hand_for_perception_and_action [Accessed 12 Dec. 2020]. [Accessed 15 Dec. 2020].

Ellouze, M., Boujemaa, N. and Alimi, A.M. (2010). IM(S)2: Interactive movie summarization system. Journal of Visual Communication and Image Representation, [online] 21(4), pp.283–294. Available at: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1047320310000088 [Accessed 15 Dec. 2020].

Fearing, F. (1947). Influence of the Movies on Attitudes and Behavior. [online] Jstor.org. Available at: https://www.jstor.org/stable/1026142?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents [Accessed 15 Dec. 2020].

Kwan, D. and Scheinert, D. (2016). Possibilia [interactive short-film]. Eko. Available from: https://eko.com/v/possibilia [Accessed 15 Apr. 2020].

Niemann, M. (2014). Five Minutes [interactive short-film]. G-Shock. Available from: http://www.fiveminutes.gs/ [Accessed 15 Apr. 2020].

Mohl, R. (1982). Cognitive space in the interactive movie map : an investigation of spatial learning in virtual environments. Mit.edu. [online] Available at: https://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/15702 [Accessed 12 Dec. 2020].

Quantic Dream. (2018). Detroit Become Human [video game]. Sony Interactive Entertainement.

Skains, R. Lyle. 2018. Creative Practice as Research: Discourse on Methodology. Media Practice and Education. 19(1), pp. 82-97. Available from: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14682753.2017.1362175 [Accessed 15 Dec. 2020].

Slate, D. (2018). Black Mirror: Bandersnatch [interactive film]. Netflix.

Appendix

Typology of interactive narratives

Bandersnatch Flow-chart

* Every blue square is a choice

* Every red round shape is an ending

* The rest such as white square are additional informations

Almost Human Flow-chart

Form Questions can be found here

Form Results can be viewed here

Movie Stills are available here

Prosthetic renders

Relaxed view

Fist view

[differentnutpeace]

Vaccine Passports: 'Scarlet Letter' Or Just The Ticket?

It's happening millions of times a day. Pharmacists jab an arm with the COVID-19 vaccine and hand over a paper card certifying that the shot was administered, and when. หวย บอล เกมส์ คาสิโนออนไลน์

"This is your ticket to freedom soon," smiles pharmacist intern Ojashwi Giri, as she hand-writes the name and birth date of another newly vaccinated customer on one of the coveted cards at Union Pharmacy in Newton, Mass. "I'm sure you're going to want to treasure this."

It's the low-tech version of the "vaccine passports" that have become the latest pandemic wedge issue. As states and businesses are debating and using them, Americans are deeply divided on whether businesses should require them to prove a person is immunized before boarding a plane, or entering a bar or a baseball game. What some see as a commonsense safety measure, others denounce as a violation of privacy and civil liberties.

GOATS AND SODA

The Vaccine Passport Debate Actually Began In 1897 Over A Plague Vaccine

To many, it's no-brainer — a ticket back to normal life. Linda Simansky clutched her vaccination card, and beamed at the prospect of being able to venture out again with greater confidence. She says she's all for the idea of vaccine passports, and would definitely be more likely to patronize places that ask for them at the door, ensuring everyone else inside is also low-risk.

"I know its awkward," she says, "but they're not asking for [anyone's] life story, they're just trying to keep people safe, and trying to also keep their business. So, I think it's a win-win."

Article continues after sponsor message

"If we're going to end this nightmare, what we need is information," agrees Peter Wilson, a musician from Pheonix. "Some people pose less risk than others [...] and if people are making unsafe choices, the rest of us deserve to know. There's no sense in blindfolding ourselves."

Wilson sees it as no different than requiring students to get vaccines in order to attend school or camp. "We're just extending that to adults to keep everyone safe."

That's the idea behind New York state's "Excelsior Pass" that allows residents to flash a code from their phones which would earn them entry into anything from a Broadway show to a gym or even a private wedding. The nation's first such state-wide system, the Excelsior Pass has already been used at Madison Square Garden, Yankee stadium as well as smaller venues around the state, and while privacy features make it hard to pinpoint, state officials say hundreds of thousands of New Yorkers downloaded or at least started checking out the system in the two weeks since it launched.

CORONAVIRUS UPDATES

Florida Gov. DeSantis Rejects Vaccine Passports As 'Completely Unacceptable'

Judy Lisi, president and CEO of the Straz Center for the Performing Arts in Tampa, says a tool like that would be "essential" to reopening mass gathering venues like theaters that depend on a full house to survive.

"Why do you think these seats are so close to each other together behind me?" she says, pointing to the empty 2,640 theater seats on the image she uses as her Zoom backdrop. "Theaters [need] to put as many people in a space [as possible, in order to] pay for what's on stage."

Lisi says she was in the process of drawing up plans to use vaccine passports to screen patrons, when Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis preemptively banned businesses from requiring them.

"He's a pro-business proponent," Lisi says. "Why doesn't he allow businesses to do what we need to do then? The whole industry is relying on this. It's so frustrating."

But DeSantis and Texas Gov. Greg Abbot, who's also banned vaccine passports, as well as others argue they're a violation of privacy and civil liberties.

"It's completely unacceptable for either the government or the private sector to impose upon you the requirement that you show proof of vaccine to just simply be able to participate in normal society," DeSantis said.

Audra Young, from Haverill, Mass., who says she's not vaccinating because she doesn't trust it, agrees the passports are a bad idea.

"Just like it's your choice to own a gun, I mean, this is America, where we should have choice to pick what we want to do with our life," Young says. Vaccine passports "feel like it's going to be like a restricted society. It's like wearing the scarlet letter. It's crazy."

While much of the opposition to vaccine passports comes from those on the right who see it as a kind of Orwellian nightmare, there is concern on the left as well.

Judy Greenberg, of San Antonio, describes herself as "very liberal." She says she got the vaccine and hopes everyone else will too, but she's uncomfortable making people prove it for the privilege of dining out, for example.

"Being Jewish, I've always had this apprehension about [anyone saying] 'Show us your papers!'" Greenberg says, because it harkens back to the horrors Jews experienced in Nazi Germany. She's quick to acknowledge a vaccine passport is hardly the same thing, but she worries it would be prone to abuse. "It'll create two classes of human beings, almost like a caste system of vaccinated and unvaccinated. So then, what's next? It just makes me a little bit uneasy."

John Calvin Byrd III, has similar qualms. The self-described "far-left militant black man" lives in Los Angeles, and says he cringes at the thought of being seen as sharing the same concerns as "Trumpers," but he believes vaccine passports would impinge on his civil liberties. He says he and his family are not vaccinating, because they don't trust how fast the COVID-19 vaccines were rushed through the emergency authorization process, and because he doesn't trust Big Pharma.

THE CORONAVIRUS CRISIS

FAQ: What Is A Vaccine 'Passport,' And What Are These Credentials Used For?

But he thinks it's unfair to penalize people like him, by restricting his ability to go out for dinner, travel, or visit a park, museum, or grocery store.

"It's not like we committed a crime," he says. "We should be able to go and play and do whatever we want." He's also feeling pressure from his boss to vaccinate, and fears his decision not to, may cost him his job.

More broadly, Byrd worries that vaccine passports will exacerbate inequities for Black and Brown people, who are still less likely to be vaccinated — either by choice or because of lack of access.

"It puts people into separate groups, and one group has privileges and the other group does not [...] That keeps myself, my family and people like us in the margins," Byrd says.

Another concern is privacy. New York State Assembly member Ron Kim, says his state's "Excelsior Pass" is especially troublesome, given that it was developed in collaboration with a corporate giant, IBM.

"We're already dealing with big tech companies like Facebook and Google exploiting and extracting data without regular people even knowing that it's happening every day," Kim says. "Now we're allowing another path for companies to extract data and profit without our knowledge."

Both IBM and New York state officials, however, insist no personal data can be accessed or used for any such purpose. And no individual information is stored, or tracked. They say the Excelsior Pass only reads data that states already collect, to offer users the QR code that bouncers can scan to get a quick, clear green checkmark or a red "X." The same code can also indicate whether a user has recently tested negative for COVID-19, which many establishments screening customers may accept in lieu of a vaccination. For those without smart phones, results can be accessed on a computer and printed out instead.

Contrary to what many may think, given all the controversy, no state is mandating use of a vaccine passport; the Biden administration is also against any federal mandate, though officials say they're helping to develop guidance on privacy and equity issues. States can and do require large venues to screen customers for the coronavirus, but whether to do that with vaccine passports is still up to individual establishments.

SHOTS - HEALTH NEWS

Coronavirus Cases Are Rising Again. See How Your State Is Doing

Some venues see the apps as an easier, more reliable way to verify that patrons are low-risk for spreading the coronavirus. Digital apps may well be more difficult to hack than vaccination cards are to forge, and they'd likely be more effective and efficient than what many are doing now, which is taking everyone's temperature and reviewing health surveys that patrons answer on the honor system.

But other businesses, especially in the hospitality industry, are proceeding with caution. A "no shirt, no vaccine, no service" policy may come across as inhospitable, many say, and may turn of customers who restaurants need now more than ever. Also, many bars and restaurants are loath to take on the burden of vaccine enforcement, on top of what they already do, checking ID's to make sure everyone's legal to drink, and constantly policing customers who may have had too much to drink.

That said, establishments that are still struggling to survive a year into the pandemic are not ruling it out. Doug Bacon, president of Red Paint Hospitality Group, owns eight bars and restaurants in Boston; four remain closed, and four are open, but still unable to make money because of pandemic restrictions limiting capacity. If requiring vaccine passports would mean he could fully reopen, he says, "I might have to give in to that. "

Bacon says he's more open to requiring vaccine passport checks for staff. In the past year, all four of his open places had to shut down for a week or more, because an employee tested positive.

"We had to sanitize the whole restaurant and have everyone tested," he says. "Perishable food had to be thrown away, and I had no income, and I paid my staff and all my suppliers and my landlords while were closed, so it's been a tremendous additional financial burden on top of everything else."

Ultimately, some are hoping vaccine passports, will prove one last bitter pill to swallow to help hasten a return to normal. It may be the carrot that induces more people to vaccinate. Or, as with so much else that's been politicized during this pandemic, it may be seen as more of a stick, that only deepens divisions, stokes resentment and leads those who've been vaccine-hesitant to dig in their heels even more.

"This is just one more thing to throw in the mix that's going to divide our country even more," Young says.

[refractionslondon]

Commercial property: * Prêt a Payer *, or Prêt-à-Fermer?

Closed door at Pret.  Image thanks to Wikipedia and Theworldgymnast1

This article is cross-posted from PRIME Economics 

The government wants us to return to our office workplaces in the cities.   The FT tells us:

“The government will [this] week launch a media campaign to encourage more employees back to their workplaces amid growing concern in Downing Street over the rising number of job losses at service businesses in city centres that are reeling from a lack of customers.  

And from Sky News (Aug 20):  

“Just one in six workers have gone back to work in cities this summer after companies and staff ignored government pleas to return, leaving economic activity deeply depressed and placing thousands of small businesses at risk of collapse….[W]orker footfall in Britain's cities was just 17% of pre-lockdown levels in the first two weeks of August.”  

The Centre for Cities’ “High Streets Recovery Tracker” shows just how far below ‘normal’ some of our biggest cities still remained by mid-August, in terms of footfall and spend levels – with London at the foot of both tables (see table at end of this article).  

The concerns expressed are that a whole ecology of city centre businesses may be killed off: “Hospitality companies that thrive on footfall, and services such as hairdressers, dry cleaners and cobblers reliant on workers, could be devastated unless cities return to normal”, says Sky News.  

We can indeed worry about the future of so many small businesses – though it is not only small businesses that are affected.  On the contrary, in recent years our city centres have been increasingly colonised by the big chains providing blandly standardised products of greater or lesser quality – and they are also hard hit.

We read, for example, that “Sandwich chain Pret a Manger is to cut 3,000 jobs, or more than a third of its workforce, as part of a plan to save the business.” (BBC News, 27 August).    

Now the French adjective “prêt” means “ready”, as in Ready to Eat, or Ready to Wear (“Pret A Porter”).  But it also has a second meaning as a noun – that of “loan”.  

And we can be pret-ty sure that the government’s major concern for our cities is far more about this second meaning than about the downsizing of the sandwich-dispensing Pret and its like. 

For what is at stake is not only the commercial viability of our retailers and service providers (many of them debt-laden), but also of the landlords and commercial investors who will be hit by any mass closures, and whose business model is based on debt and leverage.  

In simple economic logic, if many more workers work from home, but spend the same amount on purchase of goods and services in or from Home Town rather than in Big City, then the loss of jobs in Big City due to this decline in custom should be compensated (to respond to the gains elsewhere) by the creation of a similar number of jobs in Home Town, or wherever the online retailer may manifest its terrestrial presence in the form of dystopian “Fulfilment Centres”.    

In short, workers and the proprietors of smaller or weaker businesses must always put up with the consequences – notably unemployment or bankruptcy - of technological and other trends that affect longer-run economic life.  That has always been the logic of the Treasury and the Free Trade lobby, and for sure of Conservative governments over the decades.  

This logic can also apply, in part, to the working of the “market” in commercial property.  The decline in retail commercial property will be made up, in part, by the increased demand of online retailers for warehousing space. But that is far from the whole story.  

The deeper fear of government and its financial supporters is not just about the survival of the urban service business ecology, but about commercial property, largely debt-financed.  The loss of some coffee shops and dry cleaners is sad but undoubtedly bearable, in economic terms.  But if large businesses start to downsize their offices and reduce their holdings whenever leases expire or break clauses permit, it is the commercial landlords who are at risk.  More than that, the whole economy is geared towards asset price inflation, supported by central bank QE, which in general terms works to increase the valuation of physical as well as stock market assets. A continuing rise in asset valuations in turn leads to greater borrowing and lending in response.  

If commercial property values fall sharply, the ability to raise and repay loans will be affected.  At present, London and Manchester are the cities most affected by the absence of workers, footfall and spending – and are among the UK cities with the highest commercial rental values.  

In a June 2019 report for the Shawbrook Bank , the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR)  found that  

“Overall, the returns on commercial property [a £900 billion sector in 2019] are high compared to other asset classes. Between 2000 and 2018, commercial property returned 308% compared to 209% for the FTSE 100…Average yields across all sectors have been stable in recent years remaining nearly unchanged at 5.0% since 2015. As of early 2019, the retail sector showed the highest yields at 5.7%.”  

The retail property sector was already under pressure, the CEBR unremarkably note, due in particular to the trend towards online shopping, and office property was thought a good prospect save for the effects of a no deal Brexit.  Warehousing (part of industrial) was seen as having better prospects, gaining from the trend to online retail.  

In an ill-timed (as it transpired) article dated 19th February 2020, “What can we expect from the UK commercial property market as we start a new decade?”, the Head of UK Offices Insight for Cushman & Wakefield, Patrick Scanlon, argued that city centre commercial properties were likely to keep doing well:  

“After the global financial crisis, the UK has enjoyed a decade of economic growth, with little hint of recession in sight. The UK commercial real estate market has also flourished. Investors have deployed more than £500 billion of capital across all property sectors, while office occupiers have acquired more than 160 million sq ft of space. Values in many markets are now at all-time highs.”  

The FT’s “The Big Read” this weekend (30 August) is headlined, “Pandemic exposes ‘severe stress’ in commercial property financing”.  True, it focuses on the US market, and the hotel sector in particular, but underlines “…the pressure building across the commercial real estate sector — from small-town malls to sky-high office blocks — hitting one of its primary sources of financing; the $1.4tn market for commercial mortgage-backed securities.”  

The author, Joe Rennison, explains the potential consequences of the CMBS (Commercial Mortgage-backed Securities) system:

“The mortgage payments on the property, or properties, are then used to repay investors, such as fund managers and insurers.  Those investors are now bracing for losses, sitting at one end of a chain of turmoil that links millions of workers suddenly without jobs or furloughed after hotels, shops and offices closed their doors, to building owners in the middle, facing the prospect of handing the keys over to their lenders.”  

The UK CMBS market may not be as risky yet as the US one – at the end of June, S & P published a report on European (in practice mainly London) office-backed CMBS Transactions in the aftermath of COVID 19, and concluded that “tranches rated in the 'AAA' and 'AA' categories can withstand increasing vacancy rates with little risk of downgrade, while lower-rated tranches are more vulnerable in higher vacancy stress scenarios.”  In general, they saw the problem as limited, if vacancy rates increase by no more than 10 percentage points.

As yet, the sector has not seen a collapse of anything like the scale of the Great Financial Crisis; according to Savills, the sector had seen an annual fall in commercial property values in May of 7.2%.  

But London appears to have deeper problems, and may find it hard to recover. Doug McWilliams, deputy chairman of the Centre for Economics and Business Research, was reported in the Evening Standard (13 July) as saying that he expected London commercial property prices to fall by up to 30%. “Bearing in mind the fact almost no one is paying rent at the moment that is a huge hit,” he said.  

But while the sector will take its time to adjust (since tenants who are not insolvent are locked in for sometimes lengthy terms), and will be coy to acknowledge falling capital values, the future for big city centre commercial retail and office sub-sectors does indeed look bleak.  I don’t believe in an office-free future for service companies – but the average size will fall dramatically and leave the market over-stocked.  This in turn will lead to a move to (re)turn commercial to residential uses, or to lower capital values and lower rentals.  

How much the Big City falls in commercial property will be compensated elsewhere in the country is hard to tell at this point, and will doubtless depend on the overall fate of the economy.  

Meanwhile, commercial rents and loan interest payments will be falling due.  But are our businesses yet Pret A Payer?  

Table - from Centre for Cities

[tysonxalg213]

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