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Everything in Fontaine has been a Fatui plot: or, an analysis of the 4.0 archon quest and speculation for 4.1 and the rest of Fontaine

In celebration of the end of Lyney's banner and the start of Tartaglia's rerun, here's a dissertation on the Fatui presence in Fontaine.

Spoilers for the 4.0 archon quest, and minor spoilers for the Narzissenkreuz world quest. Doesn't include any information from leaks beyond 4.0.

The 4.0 archon quest left us with a lot of unanswered questions, chief of which (for me) centered around the second trial and Tartaglia's role in the plot. Underlying all of those questions is the question of the greater narrative, that is: what are the Fatui doing in Fontaine? In attempting to pick out clues and hints that could answer those questions, there seemed to be an overwhelming knot of coincidences, and potential solutions to the questions seemed to form a complete picture if a certain assumption was made. The speculation and theories within stem from this.

This post became enormous [~30k!], so I created a Google Doc version of this post with all of the information. I recommend reading it there, as it allows for better navigation (jumping around), better formatting, and has some visuals. This is posted in one format or another on tumblr and r/Genshin_Lore. Feel free to post elsewhere with credit.

I'll put only the TL;DR of each section and the main conclusions here; all the details and evidence will be below the cut.

The Fatui, Fontaine, and performance. Performances and trials are nearly one and the same in Fontaine. There's an implication that the Fatui are creating a performance in Fontaine, potentially both through controlling the overarching narrative/plot, and also through controlling trials. There is a focus on misdirection and hiding what's really going on in order to achieve these goals.

What are the Fatui doing in Fontaine? There's at least two Fatui factions in Fontaine that may be working together, in parallel, or at odds with each other. Potential Fatui interests in Fontaine include: (1) learning about the Oratrice, (2) retrieving the Hydro Gnosis, (3) saving Fontaine from the prophecy, and (4) destabilizing the Fontainian justice system. We don't know why Tartaglia's in Fontaine.

Lyney & Lynette's magic show and the first trial. Lyney and co. have demonstrated that they will use a performance as a front for other goals with the magic show. The second "performance" in the archon quest (the first trial) fits the criteria that Lyney lays out in the Final Feast trailer as to how to control a performance: controlling the time, place, and people, so it is possible that the trial was a ploy. The first trial being a Fatui ploy allows for the Fatui to (1) present evidence that the prophecy is real through the introduction of the dissolving water, and draw the public's attention to that reality to help their goal of saving Fontaine, (2) shake some of the trust in Furina as an arbiter of justice, (3) investigate how the Oratrice works in as close to a controlled environment as possible, and (4) bring more attention to the serial disappearances case while keeping the Fatui out of the list of potential culprits.

Tartaglia & the second trial. We aren't told who accused Tartaglia. Given that it's important that we don't know this information, the Fatui are the best fit to have accused Tartaglia. Their motivation in doing so would be to get Tartaglia sent to the Fortress of Meropide. The Fortress is of interest to the Fatui because of (1) the information network present there as a den and community of criminals, (2) its connection to and potential information about the Oratrice, (3) potential abyssal connections, and (4) potential connections to pre-Celestial civilizations. There is also the implication that it needs to be Tartaglia that is sent there, due to his unique background. It's possible that the second trial was a Fatui ploy, as the Fatui would be able to control the time, place, and most people involved. There is also little risk for the Fatui if staging the trial and getting Tartaglia sent to the Fortress fails. We can also speculate that the Fatui had enough information to know or guess that Tartaglia would be determined guilty by the Oratrice due to his unique properties. Setting up the second trial as an outcome of the first also allows the Fatui to (1) learn more about how the Oratrice works and (2) destabilize faith in the justice system by creating an unprecedented discrepancy in verdict between public and Iudex opinion and that of the Oratrice.

Who's in on it? Tartaglia. It seems likely that Tartaglia is aware of his role in the Fatui plot, and has orders to be sent to the Fortress of Meropide. The imagery and details of his fight "performance" on the opera house main stage seem to hint that it was a ploy. The fact that Tartaglia gave the Traveler his vision - and expects to take it back - means that there's a reason that he needs to not have a vision within the narrative, and there's evidence to support that the reason is that he intends to put on an authentic "performance" without his vision, as laid out in Lyney's voicelines. There are many parallels between our interactions with Tartaglia in Fontaine and those in Liyue, where he used the Traveler for his goals, and deflected from his true motives with honesty about other topics. Tartaglia also has personal motivation to be sent to the Fortress of Meropide, in alignment with the Fatui's goals. Tartaglia being aware of his role and the plot strengthens the claim that the second trial was a ploy, as it allows the Fatui more control of the circumstances.

Who's in on it? Lyney and co. It's likely Lyney is aware of at least part of the Fatui plot, though Lynette, Freminet, and the other kids may not be. Lyney planted the magic show ticket on Liliane in Romaritime Harbor. A higher-up in Marcel's Sinthe organization is working with/for the Fatui, informing on Marcel and Navia. On orders from the Fatui, this individual gave Cowell orders to dissolve and abduct a girl at the magic show by tampering with the seat selector, and to tamper with the tank to hide the evidence; they also gave Vaughn orders to plant the water in Lyney's effects in an attempt to frame the Fatui for the serial disappearances. In this way, the Fatui could fully control the events of the magic show and first trial, and set up the stage for the second.

Conclusions. Everything was a Fatui plot: the Fatui are the scriptwriters and directors of the performance that is the Fontaine archon quest. If you think those claims are too far-fetched, Fatui involvement can be removed piecemeal and the overall motivations, actions, and events still hold up.

Speculation on 4.1 and beyond. We'll see Tartaglia carry out his mission at the Fortress of Meropide, with the goal of gaining information on (1) how the Oratrice works, (2) the abyss, (3) Hyperborea or other pre-Celestial civilizations, or (4) the Primordial Sea and its water. The magic pockets will be important in the future, and their function will be demonstrated. In every nation besides Mondstadt, the events of the archon quest led to a change in the status quo of government. In Fontaine, this will be a destruction or restructuring of the justice system, possibly led by Neuvillette or Furina.

Table of Contents

I. The Fatui, Fontaine, and performance

Performances & trials

Magic

Section I TL;DR

II. What are the Fatui doing in Fontaine?

What do the Fatui say they are doing in Fontaine?

What other evidence do we have for what the Fatui might be doing in Fontaine?

Section II TL;DR

III. Lyney & Lynette's magic show and the first trial

Was the first trial a ploy?

Fatui motivations for the first trial to be a ploy

Section III TL:DR

IV. Tartaglia & the second trial

Who accused Tartaglia?

The Fortress of Meropide

Was the second trial a ploy?

The Oratrice & Tartaglia's conviction

Revisiting motivations to control the first trial

Section IV TL;DR

V. Who's in on it?

Tartaglia

Why did Tartaglia give the Traveler his vision?

Section V Tartaglia TL;DR

Lyney and co.

Liliane

Cowell & Vaughn

Vacher/Marcel

Section V Lyney and co. TL;DR

VI. Conclusions

VII. Speculation on 4.1 and beyond

Afterword

I. The Fatui, Fontaine, and performance

In this section, we're going to take a step back from the events of the archon quest, and look at the setup of the Fontaine narrative as a whole, and some relevant themes that are prevalent within.

Performances & trials

Let's start with the trailer Overture: The Final Feast. In the trailer, we have the following narration from Lyney and Arlecchino:

Lyney: The essence of magic is getting people to believe a lie Lyney: And the most important part of this is what people see Lyney: People don't realize how much they expect their eyes to tell them the truth Lyney: But what you see is not real. It's all a show Lyney: And every part of the show is carefully controlled Lynette: Controlled how? Lyney: By choosing the right time, the right place... Lyney: And the right people Lyney: Whoever controls these three, controls everything Lyney: But keep your eyes peeled, and you might be able to turn things to your advantage Lyney: In a nutshell, magic is what you see with your own two eyes Arlecchino: Very fun. But it's not enough Arlecchino: Let me make something clear. You think of yourselves as "magicians" Arlecchino: But when you're on the stage, you're first and foremost actors Arlecchino: Good actors hone their craft to mesmerize the whole crowd

Along with the visuals, the trailer seems like it may be alluding to a greater plan behind the scenes from the Fatui - the Hearth and Arlecchino specifically. To speculate, it would seem to imply the Fatui being behind the scenes of the plot of Fontaine, and making use of misdirection and illusions to distract the "audience" - the people of Fontaine (as well as us).

It'd be remiss not to mention here the Fatui Harbinger naming scheme itself being from the Commedia dell'Arte - which already implies a meta-sense of the awareness of narratives and performances, and "playing" certain "roles". This performing seems to be intrinsic thematically to the Fatui as an organization, whether you think of the naming scheme as a Watsonian or Doylist thing.

Moving on specifically to the justice system in Fontaine, there's been an emphasis on trials in Fontaine being plays or shows - spectacles and performances.

The Opera Epiclese is where performances (opera, orchestra, etc.) are held, and also where trials are held - this is a very clear conflation of performances and trials. In addition, the visuals of the opera house interior themselves are a mix of a typical opera house (stage, seating, balcony/suite seating), a courtroom (raised judge's seat in the center, balconies on each side for the prosecution and defense), and a guillotine.

There are also a number of lines from characters and NPCs that mention the close relationship between performances and trials in Fontaine. A few select ones:

From Furina, at the beginning of the archon quest in Romaritime Harbor:

Furina: Amusing. Very amusing, Lyney. Just the sort of unexpected twist that I enjoy. With you here, today's performance can finally be called complete. Paimon: Performance? You see all this as a performance? Furina: In which case, consider the matter of your trial resolved. The god of justice will not bring charges against an innocent person.

From Lyney, shortly afterwards:

Lyney: When there are no public trials being held, the opera house hosts a variety of other performances. To the people of Fontaine, the line between a trial and a performance can be a little blurred...

From Navia, who asks us our opinion on this practice:

Navia: In your opinion, do you think it's right to treat a trial like it's an opera?

And from NPCs as well. Here are two lines from Potier, for example:

Potier: Ah, if only the day would come when I can perform at the opera house — uh, not in the sense of standing trial, though. [...] Potier: Don't worry, don't worry. I have principles and sense — and more importantly, I don't want to perform a "trial-standing show" at the opera house.

It seems to be clear that trials and performances are nearly one and the same in Fontaine. Now, looking again at these three lines from Lyney in the Final Feast trailer in particular:

Lyney: And every part of the show is carefully controlled Lynette: Controlled how? Lyney: By choosing the right time, the right place... Lyney: And the right people

If we think of trials as "shows" as mentioned in Potier's lines, then what Lyney is saying here is that the trials can be (and potentially are) controlled by choosing the time, place, and people on trial. Here we then have the possible implication that the Fatui are controlling (specific) trials. Tying this with the rest of the trailer, we are able to speculate on two levels of Fatui plotting: a scheme behind the entire narrative of Fontaine, and a scheme behind specific trials.

Magic

Magic is also a common theme throughout the first parts of the archon quest. It naturally appears as a major theme where Lyney appears, so: in the Final Feast trailer, as well as being the main narrative point of the first part of the archon quest. From a narrative perspective, this is a deliberate choice, as is using Lyney and Lynette as the main characters in the first part of the archon quest - we can therefore place importance on magic as a theme.

There are quite a few interesting lines we have from major players in the quest about magic. Selected lines below:

From Neuvillette during the magic show:

Neuvillette: To appreciate magic, you should focus on the show happening on stage rather than getting caught up in trying to see that which has been intentionally hidden.

From Furina during the first trial:

Furina: Magic tricks are ultimately just illusions and misdirection... but Halsey's disappearance is very real. We're talking about two completely different things.

From Lyney back at the beginning of the archon quest:

Lyney: Magicians and thieves practice similar methods. We divert attention, and a distracted audience is one that won't discover what you're really doing.

And from Lyney's character stories:

Magic is a lie. Nothing but evasion, deception, and trickery. Even a single illusion requires a series of lies to pull off. To put on a whole magic show, you must win the audience's trust by weaving a seamless facade of ruses and ploys

Some commonalities between these quotes appear: an emphasis on magic relying on illusions and misdirection, and distracting the audience. There is also the presence of "intentionally hidden" elements that are crucial to the magic working - or, what is "really happening".

The relevance of these points is twofold: within the bounds of the Fatui's schemes, we may expect Lyney and co. (and potentially Arlecchino) to make use of these principles to distract the public from their goals. On a meta level, we can expect the narrative in Fontaine to make use of illusions and misdirection, and attempt to distract us (as the audience) from what is really happening. We should pay special attention to any gaps where there may be hidden elements that give hints towards what is really happening. Moving forward, we will take this approach to analyze what may be occurring with regards to the Fatui in Fontaine.

Section I TL;DR: Performances and trials are nearly one and the same in Fontaine. There's an implication that the Fatui are creating a performance in Fontaine, potentially both through controlling the overarching narrative/plot, and also through controlling trials. There is a focus on misdirection and hiding what's really going on in order to achieve these goals.

II. What are the Fatui doing in Fontaine?

In the first part of the archon quest, we encounter the Fatui in two separate instances: with Lyney and Lynette, who are part of the House of the Hearth, and with Tartaglia. In this section, we'll investigate what they claim to be doing in Fontaine, and speculate on unstated motivations.

What do the Fatui say they are doing in Fontaine?

The House of the Hearth. In the first part of the archon quest, Lyney tells the traveler that the Fatui are interested in learning more about the Oratrice.

Lyney: We've been trying to find out how the Oratrice operates. We want to know why it has a consciousness? Why can it deliver sentences accurately?

Later, he mentions the Knave's motivations:

Lyney: She has gained permission from the Tsaritsa to first use the Gnosis' power once she obtains it. She plans to use it to find a way to break the prophecy and save Fontaine. Paimon: So she believes in that prophecy too? Lyney: That's right. The whole House of the Hearth is currently working to combat that crisis.

Tartaglia. Tartaglia never clearly says what he's doing in Fontaine. We first meet him when he's acting as a collector for Northland Bank, but he never mentions this work as his reason for being there, and Paimon dismisses this as a reason out of hand. His responses to Paimon's direct inquiries about his reason for being in Fontaine are as follows:

Paimon: We're surprised to see you too! What are you doing here in Fontaine? You didn't want to stay in Snezhnaya? Traveler: We sure seem to have run into a lot of friends today. / Fontaine really is a curious place. Childe: Haha! Long story short, I've already been in Fontaine for some time now, and honestly, things have been pretty boring.

And the second inquiry, after his vision malfunction:

Paimon: So what are you doing in Fontaine, Childe? And don't say it's work for Northland Bank! Childe: Well... I guess it's because I've been in a bad mood lately. Paimon: Huh? What kind of reason is that? Wait, since when do you feel down about anything? Childe: Haha, I dunno... Maybe I still have a lot to learn about myself.

He deflects and doesn't answer the question at all. This is such a blatant deflection that it's difficult to call it "misdirection", but it does fall under that umbrella. Rather than answer the question and tell us what he's "really doing", Tartaglia misdirects the Traveler and Paimon (and the player) by talking about being in a bad mood, a rising power within him, and his experiences in the abyss. No doubt this information will be plot relevant later, but it also serves to distract us from that initial question - instead of investigating his motivations for being in Fontaine, we are more interested in this new information. It's therefore likely that his goals in Fontaine are important to understand what's going on with the performance of the Fatui in Fontaine.

So far, we have the following stated motivations for the Fatui in Fontaine: (1) learning about the Oratrice, (2) retrieving the Hydro Gnosis, and (3) saving Fontaine from the prophecy. All three of these motivations are from the House of the Hearth faction (Lyney, Lynette, Arlecchino, potentially Freminet) - we don't know why Tartaglia's there.

What other evidence do we have for what the Fatui might be doing in Fontaine?

There's a group of three kids near the café and the House of the Hearth in the Court of Fontaine having a discussion that is clearly a veiled reference to the current Fatui situation, and works well as a high-level framework for viewing the Fatui presence in Fontaine.

Estella: The hearth in your home has been burning brightly lately, I see. Olivier: And the balances in yours have been working hard, haven't they? Manet: My hearth is strong, and the firewood, sufficient. As for the balances, I don't need 'em. It's not like I'll miss those one or two pieces of vegetables at the market, anyway. Estella: ... Estella: You'd best be careful. If the flames leap onto the opera house carpet, they'll put your hearth out while fighting the fires. Olivier: Ooh, very scary. But can you guarantee that the opera house would survive said flames? Manet: Nah, the fire in my house won't reach the opera house. It's way too far away! Olivier: ... Estella: ...So, have those flames been staying put? Olivier: Hmph. Why don't you guess? Estella: I'm not doing that. Just tell me. Manet: I bet they're behaving themselves instead. Where can they go, anyway? Olivier: ... Estella: ...

It's vague enough that it's difficult to get a clear idea of the meaning or how it relates to the Fatui plot in Fontaine. However, there are a few points that we can pull from this that may help speculation.

The House of the Hearth ("hearth") and the Northland Bank ("balances") are both working in Fontaine. The involvement of the House of the Hearth was already clearly demonstrated with Lyney and Lynette and their trial. We also knew that a branch of the Northland Bank exists in Fontaine (if you haven't found it, it's just past the alchemy table in the Court of Fontaine). In the plot, these two institutions are already clearly represented by characters: the Hearth by Lyney and Lynette, and the bank by Tartaglia. In our first meeting with Tartaglia in Fontaine, he introduces himself to the Confrerie of Cabriere as an agent of Northland Bank rather than specifically his role as a Harbinger.

There may be two or three Fatui presences working in parallel or at odds with each other. We have the House of the Hearth and the Northland Bank as two major Fatui institutions. Manet, in the above conversation aligned with the Hearth, seems not to need or want the help of the bank, and there seems to be a level of compartmentalization of information between the two institutions, as the kids are asking each other about their plans. There's three kids in this conversation: Olivier has a hearth, Estella has the balances, and Manet seems to also have a hearth. It's hard to draw a clear conclusion on the importance of this: Olivier and Manet may or may not be referring to the same "hearth", or they might be, but have different interpretations of how to "use" the hearth. So these institutions may be working towards the same goal in different ways, or may be working towards different goals.

There's an implication that if the Opera Epiclese is aware of or involved with the Hearth's plans, they may begin to target the Hearth. Olivier implies the Opera targeting them may be in their plans, which may be to "destroy" the opera house (likely metaphorically):

Olivier: Ooh, very scary. But can you guarantee that the opera house would survive said flames?

This statement reads pretty clearly as a veiled threat of an institutional suicide play: The opera house (Fontaine justice system, Furina, and Neuvilette) may suppress and prosecute the Hearth while attempting to react to the "flames" (chaos, lack of faith in the system, children of the Hearth, etc.) that the Hearth set, but the Opera may not survive that endeavor. Destroying the Opera could take the form of shaking the people of Fontaine's faith in the Opera (and Oratrice) as a system of justice, and undermining its power.

The flames could also refer to Lyney, as a pyro-aligned member of the Hearth who, as part of the archon quest, has a performance on the opera house carpet (stage).

As a bit of slightly more baseless speculation, the "flames leap[ing] onto the opera house carpet" mentioned here could also refer to Tartaglia, who's linked closely with chaos and discord when mentioning the Fatui. Relevant quotes from Tartaglia's character stories below:

As the Harbingers' vanguard, Childe always appears in the vulnerable underbellies of Snezhnaya's enemy states, striking as a conflict is about to erupt. On the other hand, because they fret about the way his quarrelsome personality tends to invite unwanted trouble, the other Harbingers constantly try to get him sent on missions to places as far from Snezhnaya as possible, so that they can avoid the fallout. Shocked by Ajax's great strength and curious about how he invariably became the eye of a vortex of discord, Pulcinella inducted Ajax into the Fatui [...]

Later in the archon quest, Tartaglia quite literally "leaps onto the opera house carpet" at the end of a trial.

The reference in the kids' conversation seems to clearly refer to the Hearth's flames, of which Tartaglia is not. Manet mentions his House's flames won't reach the opera. However, Olivier and Estella continue the conversation, and seem to be referring to some unruly flames that Manet thinks have been behaving - when we later meet Tartaglia, he mentions that the bank told him not to beat up clients, and he's generally been following that direction. So it is a possibility that the flames refer to him, however slim it may be. Picking apart the details of this conversation is ultimately not too important in the grand scheme of things.

What would destabilizing the justice system do for the Fatui? There's many potential reasons that a nation might want to destabilize another, but we don't have a clear specific reason. Perhaps it's sowing chaos as a way to get to a larger goal, like the Gnosis, or perhaps it's a trial run for turning people away from their faith in the gods. (Wild speculation: "Epiclese'' comes from "epiclesis", referring to invoking the gods. So if the Tsaritsa and Fatui are truly working up to a rebellion against the gods (Celestia) or the like, destroying the opera house which is named after ritual invocation of the gods is apt.) In addition, the Oratrice is said to collect the power of Indemnitium through the people's belief in the justice system, and use this to power Fontaine. If the people's belief in justice in Fontaine was shaken, this power would also wane.

Regardless, the Fatui have been shown to deliberately destabilize other nations before (see: Inazuma's civil war).

So now we have added a potential fourth motivation for the Fatui in Fontaine: "destroying" the Opera house as an institution.

Section II TL;DR: There's at least two Fatui factions in Fontaine that may be working together, in parallel, or at odds with each other. Potential Fatui interests in Fontaine include: (1) learning about the Oratrice, (2) retrieving the Hydro Gnosis, (3) saving Fontaine from the prophecy, and (4) destabilizing the Fontainian justice system. We don't know why Tartaglia's in Fontaine.

III. Lyney & Lynette's magic show and the first trial

In this section we'll discuss Lyney and Lynette's magic show and the ensuing trial, and investigate the possibility that the trial was a ploy.

To begin with, let's discuss the magic show.

Lyney and Lynette clearly state that the magic show was a guise to investigate the Oratrice.

Lyney: We've been trying to find out how the Oratrice operates. We want to know why it has a consciousness? Why can it deliver sentences accurately? Lyney: During our investigations, we learned that the machine's core is beneath it. Lyney: From that moment on, Lynette and I have been designing this box-swap trick, with the objective of getting close to the core. Paimon: Is that why you needed a whole minute? Lyney: That's right. In truth, the audience would take about seventy-five seconds to count down from sixty, while I would only need fifteen to get to the opposite box. Lyney: So after jumping into the tunnel, I accessed the opera house basement via the vent and went to investigate the room in which the core is stored. Lynette: That air vent was created during the construction of the tunnel specifically to execute this step.

So here we have it both outright stated and demonstrated that the Fatui will put on a performance (magic show) to hide their real motivations and goals.

Was the first trial a ploy?

Earlier, we mentioned that performances and trials in Fontaine are nearly the same thing. We also mentioned that there is the possible implication that the Fatui are controlling trials by choosing the time, place, and people.

Thinking now once again of trials as a performance, we should investigate if the second "performance" in this part of the archon quest (the trial) was also a guise to hide the Fatui's real motivations.

For the first trial in the archon quest, if we apply this claim, we can see that the Fatui do have the ability to control all three of these factors of the trial.

Place: this is easily controlled, as all trials are held in the opera house. In addition, the crime itself happens during a planned performance at the opera house.

Time: part of this is easily controlled. The crime itself, if it was a ploy, was in a controlled environment: in the opera house during a planned performance, in front of witnesses to make the details of the case clear. The shaky part of the claim here is to assume that the trial would immediately happen following the crime. We don't have too much information on the speed at which trials occur after a crime happens and one is accused. However, to speculate: setting up the crime to occur in front of the archon and and audience in a blatant and shocking way, it could be expected that someone would at least accuse Lyney of the crime and a trial would occur. Because the crime occurred in such a spectacular way (ie, a fun performance), and with the knowledge of Furina's character we have so far, the Fatui may have been able to predict or plan for the trial to occur quickly. Navia mentions that Furina jumping to accuse a someone and kicking off a trial is "not uncommon":

Navia: Furina sure was quick to point the finger at Lyney without any decisive evidence whatsoever, wasn't she? Navia: But that's not uncommon for her. If you remember, the Justice had to interrupt her and ask if she was pressing charges just to keep her from getting carried away. Navia: Anyway, a trial begins the moment someone levels charges. And of course, there was no way Furina was going to back down in that situation.

So the timing of the trial could have been within their expected planning. On the other hand, it's possible that the exact timing of the trial is not important - if it was pushed off for a while, then their plans could accommodate.

People: This is where it seems like there's too many coincidences to ignore. We'll go through each major player in situation.

Lyney & Lynette. They're explicitly agents of the House of the Hearth, and so are totally within the Fatui's control.

Cowell. Within the magic troupe, he's Lyney's subordinate, and therefore on some level answers to him. On the other hand, the outcome of the two trials posits to us that he is a subordinate of Vacher/Marcel and was responsible in part for attempting to frame Lyney and the Fatui for the disappearances. Conveniently, he's dead, so we can't confirm his role.

Neuvillette. He has a seat in the opera house audience that is reserved for him. Lyney mentions he reserved a seat for the Traveler, so he has some insight into the seating arrangements. It's therefore possible that the Fatui could know that he was going to attend the magic show. It's clear that many others have reserved seats as well, so it's possible for the Fatui to know some of the people attending the show.

Lyney: Allow me to introduce you to Fontaine's Chief Justice [Iudex]. That seat is always reserved for him. It wouldn't be too much to say that he's the symbol of justice and honesty here in Fontaine. Paimon: Whoa! Sorry for being so rude just now. Paimon had no idea you were such an important person... Neuvillette: No offense taken. Being Chief Justice [Iudex] is merely what I do for work. Nearly every person has their usual reserved seat, so I am not so special, really.

Furina. The Fatui knew Furina would be present at the magic show, as she mentioned attending earlier in the archon quest.

Furina: I look forward to seeing your upcoming performance at the opera house, Mister Lyney and Miss Lynette.

Traveler. The Traveler is invited to the magic show directly by Lyney, and the specific seat they sit in is also reserved by Lyney.

Lyney: The opera house has assigned seating, so you always have to make reservations. I've already reserved your seats, and here are your tickets.

Here I would also like to mention that it's clear that someone is keeping tabs on the Traveler's movements. At the very beginning of the archon quest in Caravan Ribat, we see a man dressed in the Fontainian style watch our conversation with Dehya, and then run off in the direction of Fontaine once the Traveler says where they're headed next. Who exactly this man is or works for hasn't been made clear yet, but our spectacular welcome in Romaritime Harbor from both the Fatui and the archon means that either could be possibilities. Furina says she could tell, as a god, when we stepped foot into Fontaine, though we don't know if her claim is true. Regardless, there's evidence someone is keeping tabs on us, and if one person has that information, it's likely others do as well.

This is relevant because of the Traveler's role as Lyney's defense attorney - it's not too out of left field to posit that the Fatui planned for that role for us when the steps are laid out: we are welcomed to Fontaine by Fatui agents, invited to their magic show, and requested to act as a defense attorney - in this the Traveler is being moved into the right positions for their role.

Liliane (Halsey). From what we are told explicitly during the archon quest, Liliane isn't beholden to the Fatui, and is instead a thief from Mondstadt who happened to steal a ticket for the show and impersonate the person who was supposed to attend. Liliane is also the thief that appears at the beginning of the archon quest, chased by the Traveler, Lyney and Lynette, and who manages to avoid Lyney and Lynette but leaves the stolen items behind with them. The seat she was sitting in was deliberately chosen as the volunteer for the performance. All of this is a suspicious coincidence, but we'll discuss it more later when we discuss who might be aware of the scheme. For now, we will only propose that it's possible Liliane is in contact with the Fatui, and it's possible that she isn't.

Navia. She doesn't seem to have any outright connections to the Fatui, and we don't have evidence as to whether she has a reserved seat at the opera house. We also don't know if she was planned for by the Fatui or not. The only interesting connection we have here is that of her connection to Vacher/Marcel. We'll bring this up again when we discuss the second trial, and who might be in on the plot in more detail.

Vaughn. From what's stated in the archon quest, Vaughn was hired to frame the Fatui (Lyney in particular) for the serial disappearances case, and was working as Cowell's accomplice. From the second trial, it appears that his boss is also Vacher/Marcel. However, he also conveniently dies just before he can name his boss outright:

Vaughn: I—I was just following orders! Vaughn: We were supposed to place blame for the serial disappearances onto Lyney and thus cause suspicion to fall on the Fatui. The higher-ups said that this was the best opportunity to do so. Neuvillette: And now that your plan has fallen through, and the secrets of the Water have been revealed, you have become a liability to said higher-ups, yes? Neuvillette: Therefore, you would be wise to tell everything you know and seek the protection of the Gardes. Vaughn: Y—Yes! I'll tell you everything I know! Vaughn: Our boss discovered that the Water can cause people to dissolve. Vaughn: It can also be made into a potion which, when extremely diluted, can cause people to experience unforgettable exhilaration. Vaughn: We've been in this business for a while now and have made decent Mora off it. The disappearances were also the boss' idea. I mean, this is the boss we're talking about, the—

It's possible we don't get to hear him name his boss so that we can go through the second trial and discover Vacher/Marcel, but there is also the slim possibility that his boss is someone else.

Marcel. He was present at this trial, which becomes a key point in determining him the culprit in the second trial. As to his relationship to the Fatui, the only pieces of information we have are (1) that he's Snezhnayan, and (2) that he runs the Confrerie of Cabriere, which owes money to the Northland Bank. Marcel being Snezhnayan does not necessarily mean he's part of the Fatui. However, in the player's mind, Snezhnaya and the Fatui are inextricably intertwined, and Marcel mentioning that he's Snezhnayan is a flag to make us think of the Fatui. From a narrative perspective, Marcel does not necessarily need to be Snezhnayan for his motivation to be behind the disappearances to work - he only needs to be from somewhere other than Fontaine. Therefore, the fact that he's Snezhnayan is a deliberate choice. Once again, we will discuss this more later - for now, we will only propose that there is a possible connection we can draw between Marcel and the Fatui.

In summary, the people present at the trial can be grouped into a few categories based on their connection to the Fatui.

People the Fatui have full control over: Lyney, Lynette

People the Fatui knew would be at the show and trial: Furina, Neuvillette, Traveler

People that have a tentative connection to the Fatui: Cowell, Liliane, Marcel

People connected to Marcel: Vaughn, Cowell, Navia

Here we can see that the Fatui have a hand in controlling most of the people present at the show and trial, mostly fulfilling our third condition for controlling the "show".

We can investigate the reasoning for these people to be present at the show given the claim the trial was a Fatui ploy. Lyney, Lynette, Liliane, Cowell, and Vaughn were all essential for the crime to occur and the trial to reach its conclusion. Furina and Neuvillette were necessary to move from the discovery of a crime directly to a trial. We previously discussed how it was possible the Fatui could predict Furina would quickly accuse Lyney and begin a trial once the crime occurred based on her known behavior; Neuvillette is necessary as Iudex to preside over the trial. The Traveler was explicitly invited to the show, and was deliberately asked to act as a defense attorney by Lyney. Only Navia and Marcel seem not to have reasoning behind their presence at the show and trial from the Fatui perspective. We will come back to this when we discuss the second trial and the impact of each of the two trials on our understanding of the other, at which point this reasoning may be stronger.

One last point here is the Traveler's stated thoughts in the archon quest just after Lyney is exposed as a Fatui member:

Traveler: (There's no doubt about a magician's ability to con others. Given how Lyney has concealed his identity, this could all have been set up beforehand.) Traveler: (Plus Childe is here in Fontaine along with other House operatives, there must be some scheme at work here.) Traveler: (I've been a victim of such schemes before, and now...)

The Traveler's thoughts when laid out like this are often a summary and explanation of what's been going on in the quest for the player's benefit, or are used to influence the player's feelings about the events in the quests. Here the Traveler explicitly lays out that it's possible that "this" could have been set up beforehand. We tend to immediately connect "this" to the crime itself, since that's what's being discussed at the trial, but in combination with the second line - that there's some scheme at work - "this" could also refer to the the trial as a whole. We'll come back to this quote again later, but here we will simply use this as another piece of evidence that it's possible the trial could have been a setup.

A note here: for the most part, this trial being a setup relies on the idea that either (1) Lyney (and co.) are aware that the trial's a setup and are working to that end, or (2) that Cowell, Vaughn, and/or Marcel are working to ensure the trial's a setup at the cost of their own lives or freedom for the Fatui's interests, or both. We have briefly mentioned a few reasons why these things are possibilities throughout this section, but we will discuss the viability of this in depth in the later section "V. Who's in on it?".

In summary, the trial (as a performance) mostly fits the criteria Lyney mentions in the Overture trailer as needed to control a performance - having control of the time, place, and people involved - so we can propose that this performance (the first trial) could also have been controlled by the Fatui.

Fatui motivations for the first trial to be a ploy

We have now laid out how there exists the possibility that the first trial was a ploy by the Fatui. However, we are missing a major piece that would give weight to this claim: what reason do the Fatui have to set this up as a farcical trial?

To answer this questions, we should look at two dimensions: (1) what the trial caused in terms of outcomes, and (2) the Fatui's motivations in Fontaine we laid out earlier.

Let's first look at the trial and its outcomes and effects.

The serial disappearances case was brought to the forefront of the public's mind.

Water from the Primordial Sea was introduced as something that exists, and that is able to dissolve Fontainian people.

The proceedings of the first trial imply the Fatui were not the culprits behind the serial disappearances, as a Fatui member was tried and found innocent, with someone else framing the Fatui for the crime.

The proceedings also may lead to immediate interest in finding the mastermind behind the case, who ordered subordinates to publicly disappear a girl and frame the Fatui for the crime.

Furina falsely accused an innocent person.

We'll come back to these in a moment.

The possible Fatui motivations we listed before are as follows: (1) learning about the Oratrice, (2) retrieving the Hydro Gnosis, (3) saving Fontaine from the prophecy, and (4) destabilizing the Fontainian justice system.

The magic show, as previously stated, was a front in order to learn more about the Oratrice.

During the trial, Lyney explains why the magic show was a guise, and talks about their interest in the Oratrice as a way of helping save Fontaine.

Lyney: [...] [Arlecchino] plans to use it to find a way to break the prophecy and save Fontaine. Paimon: So she believes in that prophecy too? Lyney: That's right. The whole House of the Hearth is currently working to combat that crisis.

After the trial, Lyney also explains himself and the goals of those allied with him at the Hearth, talking about how they are all Fontainian and want to save their homeland. Paimon's response to him is illuminating:

Paimon: So from small deeds like distributing Magic Pockets to huge schemes like stealing a Gnosis, everything is aimed at dealing with that prophecy...

In combination with the outcomes of the trial we listed above, we can explain that controlling the first trial could help contribute to that main goal of combatting the prophesized crisis.

To do so, let's first look at the details of the prophecy, as Lyney states them early in the archon quest:

Lyney: It says that every person in Fontaine is born with "sin." No matter how the Nation of Justice holds trial after trial, this sin cannot be absolved. Lyney: Until one day, the water levels in Fontaine will rise, and the sinful people will slowly be drowned... Lyney: In the end, the people will all be dissolved into the waters, and only the Hydro Archon will remain, weeping on her throne... Only then will the sins of the people of Fontaine be washed away.

Lyney then goes on to explain the current state of Fontaine in relation to the prophecy:

Lyney: But, here in Fontaine, evidence is what matters. There hasn't been concrete evidence for any of these claims, so they can only be regarded as conjecture. Paimon: If even the people in Fontaine don't know what sin they committed, wouldn't it be better just to ignore the prophecy completely? Why bother feeling guilty all the time? Lyney: That's exactly what the people did at first. But... in the last few years, the water levels in Fontaine have actually started rising.

We then discuss the prophecy with a few NPCs around the harbor. They have differing opinions on the validity of the prophecy. Lyney and the Traveler summarize the opinions afterwards:

Lyney: Oh? You already handed out all of the Magic Pockets? That was fast. So, what did people have to say? I bet you heard some, ah, interesting opinions... Traveler: No kidding... / Many are quite stubborn. Lyney: Yes, but that will change once disaster strikes. I know they'll change their minds, so it's only right to help them prepare.

The pieces of the puzzle we have so far:

We have the two core harbingers of doom the prophecy lays out: rising sea water, and the sinful people (people from Fontaine, in the context of the prophecy) being drowned and dissolving.

Lyney and Lynette mention that there's evidence for the first part of the prophecy: water levels have been rising and places are becoming submerged. However, at the beginning of the archon quest when this conversation takes place, there's not evidence that people will drown and dissolve.

The opinions of the public are divided, and many don't believe in the prophecy or preparing for it.

The Hearth may be interested in swaying the public with regards to the prophecy, as then their actions to "save Fontaine" would have support, which may enable them to take more drastic actions openly, and make their job easier, as the public would align themselves with the ostensibly benevolent institution aiming to help save them. If the Hearth is interested in getting public opinion on their side with regards to the prophecy, then it's clear that they need to provide evidence for the second part of the prophecy: dissolving into water.

The trial introduced the concept of Water from the Primordial Sea; or water that can dissolve Fontainians. The water's existence as the "murder weapon" for a high-profile case - the serial disappearances of young women - brings it to the forefront of the public's discussion, and frames it in a way where it's clear the water is a scary, dangerous thing (rather than framing it as something miraculous like a divine power, etc.). To top it all off, during the trial Vaughn dies in a very dramatic dissolution on the main stage of the opera house - a guaranteed conversation starter for the public. So with the first trial, evidence for the second part of the prophecy now exists.

Reactions of the audience at the trial show that this may be working to change public opinion:

Audience : Wait a moment, this reminds me of a certain prophecy. But... it's just a coincidence, isn't it?

This is also discussed offhand in the second part of the archon quest:

Navia: I'm sure you've heard about what happened at the opera house? Someone got turned into water right in front of us... Florent: Yeah, I've heard... With something that dramatic, I'm sure journalists will milk it for all its worth, and it'll be all the talk for the next several weeks.

Even Neuvillette addresses this at the very end of the archon quest:

Neuvillette: Yes, up to the present, I think we reached a point where we have no choice but to confront this prophecy directly. [...] Neuvillette: Two parts of the prophecy have already proven correct: the rising sea levels, and the ability of the people of Fontaine to be dissolved. We should be more vigilant, and stay on the watch for further signs.

At the very least, the trial has successfully made the prophecy a major topic of conversation and focus for the public.

Going back to the principles of magic and misdirection that Lyney laid out for us, we may also speculate that this focus on the prophecy could be drawing audience (public) attention to hide other motivations and goals for the Fatui in Fontaine. A focus on a prophetic doom would allow cover for dealings that might otherwise draw public attention. What those specific interests might be is speculation at this point, but may be interesting to keep in mind as the archon quest progresses.

Looking at the other effects of the trial, we can point to the fact that Furina falsely accused a person determined to be innocent by the Oratrice in a high-profile trial.

Although it's unlikely that this is the only time she has been wrong, we don't have evidence either way. However, in such a high-profile trial, to be wrong, and "embarrassed", as Silver puts it during the second trial, is an important incident.

Navia: Why do I feel like Furina's acting a little differently today? Silver: Maybe she's scared of embarrassing herself again? Melus: Alternatively, she's become more diligent after charging an innocent citizen in the last trial.

As one of the Fatui motivations we proposed is to destabilize the Fontainian justice system, showing the archon publicly being wrong about a charge and trial may help towards that end.

As an aside with more baseless speculation, if the Fatui are investigating the Oratrice and how it makes decisions, it makes sense to control a trial in as many ways as possible so that they may see how the Oratrice judges the outcome. Think of controlling variables in a science experiment.

The final set of effects from the first trial all have to do with the serial disappearances case - bringing it to the forefront, and rousing up interest in seeing justice done. There is the caveat that the Fatui are also easily written off as culprits, as they have been determined to be victims of an attempted framing during the first trial (i.e. the public is thinking: why would they frame themselves?).

Why would they want to bring attention to this case? To address this question, we'll have to discuss the second trial, which we do in the next section. Afterwards, we'll come back and take a look at this first trial again.

Section III TL;DR: Lyney and co. have demonstrated that they will use a performance as a front for other goals with the magic show. The second "performance" in the archon quest (the first trial) fits the criteria that Lyney lays out in the Final Feast trailer as to how to control a performance: controlling the time, place, and people, so it is possible that the trial was a ploy. The first trial being a Fatui ploy allows for the Fatui to (1) present evidence that the prophecy is real through the introduction of the dissolving water, and draw the public's attention to that reality to help their goal of saving Fontaine, (2) shake some of the trust in Furina as an arbiter of justice, (3) investigate how the Oratrice works in as close to a controlled environment as possible, and (4) bring more attention to the serial disappearances case while keeping the Fatui out of the list of potential culprits.

IV. Tartaglia & the second trial

In this section, we'll look at some outstanding questions we may have about the second trial in the archon quest, and investigate the claim that this trial was (also) a setup, including potential motivations. We'll then look at how any conclusions drawn here may affect the conclusions drawn about the first trial.

Who accused Tartaglia?

Let's start with when we first learn that a second trial is happening:

Thierry: Yeah, news came from Erinnyes just after you left! We've got another trial on our hands! Navia: Wasn't that place built specifically for holding trials? What's so newsworthy about this one? Thierry: I know, I know, but they said the person they're putting on trial is a Fatui Harbinger called Tartaglia! Traveler: Wait, Childe!? Navia: What? Is that someone you know? Paimon: Yeah, we know him, maybe even a little too well... Thierry: Well, he's been accused of being the true culprit behind the serial disappearances case. It's absurd, don't you think? Navia: Wait, how? None of our investigations have had anything to do with him. Thierry: That's what I thought was strange about it... So I came to tell you the news right away.

From there, the Traveler starts discussing with Navia about how to gain evidence and stall the trial so that Marcel can be charged and judged instead.

What stands out here is actually a lack of information: who accused Tartaglia (and why)? We don't gain any information on this topic during the events of the trial either. As we deliberately aren't given any information on this, we can propose that knowing these details are important pieces of information to understand what's going on.

A reminder: in Fontaine, it seems anyone can level charges against someone, and then prove them guilty in the trial that immediately begins:

Navia: Anyway, a trial begins the moment someone levels charges.

There are a few possibilities that come to mind as people with motivation to accuse Tartaglia:

Marcel

Furina

The Fatui

Someone else?

We'll skip the idea that it's someone else, as there's not any evidence for it so it's difficult to do more than speculate.

Marcel. We hear that Tartaglia's been accused soon after we talk to Marcel with Navia about Callas' case (and the fact that we're investigating it again). Accusing Tartaglia may have been a way for Marcel to get an easy scapegoat for his own crimes, as to help ensure he isn't found out as the culprit. It seems pretty immediate after we speak with Marcel that Tartaglia's accused. Likely if it was him, he contacted some other person to do the actual accusing as it doesn't seem possible he could get to the opera and accuse Tartaglia that quickly (also so that he's not drawn into the trial). When Marcel has been exposed during the trial, nobody ever brings up that he accused Tartaglia, which probably means that either he didn't accuse Tartaglia, or someone did so on his behalf. He may have hoped or expected that without any other evidence, the poor reputation of the Fatui and Harbinger Tartaglia would do the heavy lifting in declaring him guilty, or we can baselessly speculate that he would have attempted to frame Tartaglia as Cowell and Vaughn failed to do to Lyney earlier (allegedly on Marcel's orders). However, this fails to take into account any risks of accusing Tartaglia: what if he is successfully declared innocent? What if he's declared guilty, but the Fatui decide to pursue the case heavily as they believe he's innocent? Both of these could easily expose Marcel. In addition, there has just been a failure to frame the Fatui for the same crime - would he try it again so soon? It's possible that Marcel was so spooked by Navia planning to investigate Callas' murder again that he went ahead recklessly with the plan, to stave off the inevitable. He does have a bit of a breakdown at the end of the trial, so he is in at least some emotional turmoil, but there's not clear evidence to this end. From a narrative perspective, if it was Marcel or a proxy who accused Tartaglia, it would have made sense to let us know that information, as Marcel's arc is basically wrapped up with his death. There's no reason to withhold that information afterwards.

Furina. The main motivation Furina might have is to make up for her failure in Lyney's trial, and to show the strength and ability of Fontaine's justice to capture criminals in a case that's only becoming more and more high-profile. Throughout Tartaglia's portion of the trial, we don't see who the prosecution is (besides potentially Furina). In the only other trial we've seen, we were the defendant, and Furina both the person who leveled charges and the prosecutor. In the Marcel portion of the trial, Navia levels charges on Marcel rather than Tartaglia, and Navia acts as the prosecutor (along with the Traveler) for Marcel's trial. So the straightforward answer might be that Furina leveled the charges, because we only see her acting as prosecution. However, we don't know that it's a given that the person who accuses must act as the prosecution - Furina may have decided to take on that role in this case for entertainment, or to make up for the previous false accusations. Additionally, we don't actually see much of the prosecution of Tartaglia, so it's possible that there's someone else there to act as such. Furina also doesn't have a clear reason to accuse Tartaglia in particular as far as we know - just motivation to accuse someone and find the culprit. Her actions during the second trial that we see are relatively timid, and she doesn't clearly lay out charges or reasoning for them against Tartaglia. Lastly, if it was Furina who accused Tartaglia, it once again doesn't make much sense not to let us know - hiding that information doesn't really affect anything in our understanding of the trial.

The Fatui. We have the Fatui as an option here for a couple of reasons: if it's possible the first trial (performance) was a ploy, couldn't the second also be a ploy? In addition, there's not another faction or individual that's been introduced in the main Fontaine archon quest that is connected to the trials. It's easy for the Fatui or a Fatui proxy to have accused Tartaglia, as we don't know who it was. More importantly, if the Fatui accused Tartaglia, it's essential that this information is hidden from us (both the Traveler and players) so that we don't catch on that this is a scheme. This is the only option that we've looked at here that explains why we aren't told who leveled the charges. In a moment, we'll discuss the validity of this trial being a ploy, but we'll investigate this second trial in the opposite direction from the previous one: we'll first accept the claim that the trial was a ploy and uncover motivations for it to be one, and then we will look again at how viable it is that the trial was a setup.

The motivations for the Fatui or a faction of Fatui to accuse Tartaglia are complicated. One possibility is that factions are working against each other, and the Hearth faction (for example) wants Tartaglia out of the way, and chooses to do so by sending him to prison. Another option is that the Fatui wanted to draw out the real culprit by falsely accusing someone in order to get retribution for attempting to frame them in the previous trial - though this assumes that the first trial was not a Fatui ploy. In addition, it doesn't need to be Tartaglia that's falsely accused for this motivation to work, and the Fatui would need to cause someone (perhaps the Traveler) to find evidence to convict the real culprit. We don't have any evidence for this, and it's quite convoluted - as a motivation it's very unlikely.

Taking a step back: the outcome of putting Tartaglia on trial is that he is either declared innocent (and goes free) or guilty (and is sent to the Fortress of Meropide). We are looking for a motivation that requires the Fatui to accuse Tartaglia in particular, and a reason for him to need to be declared innocent, or to be sent to the Fortress. Since Tartaglia wasn't involved with the disappearances case at all so far, it's difficult to come up with a reason he needed to be tried and declared innocent of the crime with the information we currently have. Accusing Tartaglia with the goal of him being declared guilty will either (1) get him to have a duel (that he loses), or (2) get him sent to prison. As what occurs in the quest is a trial that gets him sent to prison, we'll investigate that first (and will address other options later). With that in mind, let's discuss the Fortress of Meropide in more detail.

The Fortress of Meropide

Given the assumption that Tartaglia's trial and sentencing to the Fortress of Meropide was deliberate, what is the motivation?

We don't yet know too much about the Fortress of Meropide. Besides the basics, the NPC Thurel gives us the most tidbits:

Thurel: Yes, I refer to the Fortress of Meropide. Thurel: Well, it is true that those who have never been there would never use such terms as "above water" or "underwater" in that fashion. Few guards sent down there last very long. Thurel: The environment there really cannot be called good, and there are conflicts between gangs of criminals, too, so we don't integrate well. Thurel: I've heard that a new manager was appointed who laid down a great number of new rules that have made the guards' jobs much easier.

It's not clear if the "manager" being referred to is Wriothesley or not - he's referred to as "Duke" or "Lord" of the Fortress, rather than a "new manager", so it's possible there's been a new face added in there. Either way, it seems like things are changing within the fortress. In addition, from Wriothesley's introduction:

Despite its discretion, as a resting place for criminals, the Fortress of Meropide harbors a network of conflicting interests that would have a corrupting influence on many. But even if someone was bent on infiltrating this place, they'd soon be swallowed up like breadcrumbs in a bowl of soup.

We also know that the Fatui (Arlecchino and the Hearth in particular) make use of agents in the Fontainian government to keep control of certain elements and to work towards their goals.

From Lyney's character stories:

Only the influence of "Father" and her control over the inner workings of the Court of Fontaine prevent any serious incidents from occurring. There was once an official funded by Lyney who served in the Maison Gardiennage. This person provided both intel in support of the Hotel's operations and scrubbed clean the effects of some of the Hotel's clandestine actions. These were actions that came with no small risk, but the official always performed them well, for he believed that the Fontaine of the present day needed someone like "Father" who could bypass the many layers of laws and regulations and take direct action.

We have a fortress prison full of conflict and potential for an information network that's under new management as the setting, and the Fatui's demonstrated willingness to fund agents and move their plans through them. Sounds like the Fortress is somewhere the Fatui would want to get an ear in.

In addition, the Fortress is the eventual ending location for all people determined as guilty by the Oratrice. Lyney has already mentioned that the Fatui are interested in understanding the Oratrice and how it works - it stands to reason there may some information or connection that's important for that endeavor in the Fortress.

Now let's look at the real-world references. Méropide is the name in French for Meropis, an island in Theopompus' Philippica, a story told as an exaggerated parody of the Atlantis myth. The Wikipedia page for Meropis is both short and extremely useful: I'll pull two major points of interest here:

Meropis is situated beyond the world-ocean [...] Theopompos describes three cities in Meropis: Anostos ("Place of No Return"), Eusebes ("Pious-Town") and Machimos ("Fighting-Town"). While the inhabitants of Eusebes are living in opulence getting neither hungry nor sick, the inhabitants of Machimos are in fact born with weapons and carry on wars steadily. The third city, Anostos, is situated on the outermost border of Meropis. It resembles a yawning abyss, does not have day or night, and is covered by cloudy, red fumes.

So we have a very clear abyssal connection in Anostos. If or how this will appear in game is up for grabs, but is an interesting point to look out for. (As an aside, if there's a Fighting-Town equivalent, I'm sure Tartaglia will be having fun in prison.)

The second point:

The Méropes —attacking with an army of ten million soldiers—attempt to conquer Hyperborea, but return in disgrace [...]

We've had a few in-game mentions of Hyperborea (for the first time) in Fontaine. I'll mention them in a moment. First, what Wikipedia has to say about Hyperborea is much more involved that Meropis, but in summary: Hyperborea is, in stories, a golden utopia in the frigid, northernmost parts of the world.

This reference seems to check out in-game as well. Hyperborea is mentioned in three places so far: (1) the Lumidouce Bell description, (2) by Ann in the Narzissenkreuz quest, and (3) in the description for the new battle pass weapon Ballad of the Fjords. (As a side note, the "borea" in Hyperborea refers to the same thing as that of Andrius' Lupus Boreas title: the icy north wind, named Boreas, in myth.)

The Lumidouce Bell description:

[...] Lumidouce Bell is said to represent parting and the wish for reunion. In Coppelius's play Golden Hyperborea, the flower is referred to as "Weeping Crystal." The play depicts a homesick flower wandering in the freezing lands of the north. Its beauty is made eternal by the icy winds. Critics of Coppelius's time thought that was obsessed with eternal beauty and eternal love—this obsession was written into every line of his last works.

In the Narzissenkreuz quest, the Traveler and friends travel through the portal and into the looping corridor. When they arrive in the room with four pools of water and the sword under a dome, Ann says the following:

Ann: This is the center of the world. The castle where the dragon lurks, the tower that imprisons the Princess. Sometimes, it is the lost Ancient City of Yith. Sometimes, Arcadia. At times, it is even golden Hyperborea. Ann: Here, many untrodden realms have been conquered. Here, many heroes have defeated evil dragons. Ann: This is a place that brims with magic, and I was never really able to understand it. Children could see, through a stone wall, the imaginary griffins that whirled free in the distant cloud-filled skies. Ann: These four pools would, in different adventure tales, be the four seas, and sometimes the four cardinal realms of the world.

There's a lot of meat in there, but for the purposes of this we're just focusing on Hyperborea. So with these two, we have Hyperborea associated with "golden-ness", the freezing lands of the north, and the icy winds. (Side note: the play Golden Hyperborea and the Lumidouce Bell description also seem to be tied to the Travelers (parting and the wish for reunion) and the Inteyvat (the flower's eternal beauty; i.e. being frozen into an unchanging state), so there may be some tentative connections to Khaenri'ah. But that's unrelated speculation.)

The Ballad of the Fjords is the keystone here, and I'll add the full description below.

Legends say the winter comes from Hyperborea, and the fjords and auroras there are curved and sharp as the fangs of wolves, And the glaciers and snowfields are always fissuring forth new crevices, or filling them in, creating an ever-changing land. Until at long last, the frozen earth cut itself from the umbilical cord of the continent, as though it had its own will or dreams, Leaving behind only the legend of young Ajax, who discovered the country of gold and white stone in the depths of the frozen sea. Amidst the frozen air slowly drifting from the thick layers of ice, the story of the young hero brings forth a sliver of warmth and light. The stories about him are many. Sailed he a ship into the belly of a great whale, and fought he a dragon upon the frozen plains for seven days. He and Snegurochka once fell in love, yet lost each other due to the wicked tricks of the changelings — a truly tragic tale. The last story worth telling goes something like this. The boy born to hunt fish beneath the ice with harpoons fell into a hitherto-undiscovered kingdom. This ancient capital had sunk into the depths of the earth due to some ancient disaster, but despite being buried underground, it was still as bright as the dawn. The solemn and silent king yet sat upon his massive chiseled white throne, the scepter in his hands not yet eaten away by insects, And the silver-white trees in the courtyard were like the arms of a mother or a lover, holding the virtuous and wise priest in their embrace. Beautiful yet treacherous life, twisted and violent monsters, one by one awakened from their thousand-year slumber... A voice, seemingly from a faraway place... "...Father! Father! Hey! We got a bite!" "...Oh. Sorry." "So what happened? What happened next?" "Oh, right... Finally, the boy defeated the dragon that slept deep within the kingdom." "The dragon's treasure was an infinite hoard of gold. But the boy was kind and brave, and knew that gold was the true cause of calamity and chaos, and so only took a small amount, enough for his own needs, and to cure his sick friends." "Huh? Is that the end of the story?" "The end." "Really...? Then tell me another story!" "Another story... Next time, alright? Let's stop here today, or even the fish will be scared away."

Here we have the story of the historical hero Ajax in Genshin, presented as a story told by the father of our current Ajax (Tartaglia) to him while ice-fishing.

Hyperborea is here described as a "country of gold and white stone in the depths of the frozen sea", and is once again tied to winter, glaciers, and snow. Here it's also described as being "bright as the dawn [...] despite being buried underground", and having severed its connection with the continent (Teyvat) in the past. Hyperborea's description is extremely reminiscent of that of Enkanomiya - and likely others from the pre-Celestial civilizations.

Besides being the major location besides Dragonspine that we know of that is snowy/icy, Snezhnayan waters are also described by Tartaglia as frozen in his teapot voicelines:

Tartaglia: I want to take you to see the scenery of my homeland. Tartaglia: To gaze upon the endless snowy sky, to stand on frozen lakes that won't shatter, no matter how hard you tread.

It's therefore likely that Hyperborea, or the fissures to get there, are located in Snezhnaya.

We also have the direct parallels between the historical Ajax and the current one: falling through a crevice in a snowfield to an undiscovered fallen kingdom underground between the (Irminsul) tree roots, as well as encountering a great whale. It's been mentioned before that Tartaglia's weapon constructs look extremely similar in design to those found in Enkanomiya. Relevant points from Tartaglia's character stories and voicelines:

[...] That 14-year-old boy got lost in the snowy forest. Pursued by bears and wolf packs, he lost his footing and fell into a bottomless crack in the earth's surface. There, he witnessed the endless possibilities of another ancient world [...]

From the Labyrinth warriors event, being by/between the tree roots:

Childe: I have fought in the fissures that lie between great tree roots. Boundless danger, fatal encounters... These are the ingredients I use to become stronger still.

From the 4.0 archon quest, the fact that the abyssal fissures are ever-changing:

Childe: You make it sound so easy. Ever since the incident I experienced there, I've never stopped searching for Master Skirk and that unknown abyss. Childe: But it's been years now and I've still found nothing. There isn't even a trace of the place where I remember falling into the abyss.

And the description of the whale from the 4.0 archon quest:

Childe: In my dream, I was in the deepest depths of the sea, and the boundless seabed was all around me. But in front of me appeared a whale that was so massive I felt like I couldn't breathe. Paimon: A whale? Oh, that sounds familiar... When we fought against you before, you summoned a huge whale that seemed to leap at us! Is that the one? Childe: Hehe, that's just an abstract form of a whale that I create using my elemental powers. Childe: It takes that shape because the scene I dreamt of the whale has always been stuck in my mind. I'll never forget it...

As well as a description of the "great beast" he encountered in his voicelines (whether this is the whale or not isn't clear, but it seems likely):

I once ventured deep into the abyss and came face-to-face with an enormous beast. I don't know its name, all I know is the sight of it chilled me to the bone. But mark my words, one day I will march back in there and behead that beast, and you, comrade, will be my witness!

When Tartaglia fell into the Abyss, it's likely that he encountered the remains of one of these ancient civilizations - probably Hyperborea, although there are some discrepancies in description. Hyperborea is described as bright, whereas Tartaglia's time in the Abyss is described only with "darkness". As the first description was from the previous Ajax's time, something could have happened to the equivalent of Hyperborea's Dainichi Mikoshi in the intervening time, Tartaglia's character stories could have omitted this brightness (as they are generally vague), or it could have been a wholly different place.

Regardless, it's clear that there's important ties between Meropide and Hyperborea, as well as Hyperborea and Ajax (Tartaglia), and now that Tartaglia is at the Fortress of Meropide, it feels though the confluence of these individual factors can't be a coincidence.

We also know that the Fatui as an overall organization (not just in Fontaine) have a vested interest in learning more about Khaenri'ah, the Abyss, and pre-Celestial civilizations (Dragonspine, etc.). It's possible that they know something of the Fortress' potential connection to these topics.

In summary, for Fatui interest in the Fortress of Meropide, we have the following potential motivations: (1) the information network present there as a den and community of criminals, (2) its connection to and potential information about the Oratrice, (3) potential abyssal connections, and (4) potential connections to pre-Celestial civilizations. There is also the implication that there's some meaning or reason behind it being Tartaglia that is sent there.

Even with this all said, it's possible that these connections are not deliberate. Fontaine has a strong emphasis on history repeating itself, and we've just come from Sumeru, where we encountered the idea of samsara. In this case, it could be that "fate" and the inherent cyclical nature of Teyvat is what is leading the events in Fontaine to happen as they are: that is to say, it's still possible that it's not a deliberate choice by the Fatui or otherwise to send Ajax (Tartaglia) to the Fortress of Meropide, but rather the will of "fate".

However, we will continue to investigate the idea that the Fatui deliberately sent Tartaglia to the Fortress of Meropide through a false trial.

Was the trial a ploy?

Let's look again at the second trial with the new information we have.

Previously, we had posited that it was possible that the Fatui had accused Tartaglia and put him on trial, but we were looking for a motivation for them to do so. With the information we now have about the Fortress of Meropide, we have motivation for the Fatui to (1) send an agent to the Fortress of Meropide to investigate, and (2) that the agent needs to be Tartaglia.

There are a couple of other motivations now, but we'll first investigate if it's possible or likely that the second trial was a ploy.

Taking Lyney's framework for controlling a performance again:

Time: We've already laid out that a trial begins as soon as charges are leveled. If the Fatui accused Tartaglia, they have control over when the trial takes place by being the inciting incident for the trial to occur.

Place: Once again, all trials occur at the opera house. Here we might also keep in mind that deliberately sending Tartaglia to the Fortress of Meropide is controlling the "place" he is - setting up for control of a future performance at the Fortress.

People: This element is once again the difficult one. Firstly, the Fatui accusing Tartaglia means they have control over placing him as a character in the performance. Tartaglia being Fatui also means they have control over his performance. Since this trial began more traditionally than the first one (someone leveled charges and a trial was started, rather than a crime occurring publicly and accusations and a trial being the outcome), Furina and Neuvillette's presence are not too significant - they would always be part of the trial. Then, the only outstanding factors here are Navia, the Traveler, and Marcel.

There are two options here: either the Fatui were aware of Navia and the Traveler's endeavor, and planned on them exposing and accusing Marcel, or that part of the trial was not part of the Fatui plan.

If the Fatui planned for Navia and the Traveler's interruption:

They would need to know what Navia and the Traveler were up to. This is not too difficult with a robust information network. With the amount of people they talked to in the investigation, the Fatui knowing that they were investigating the serial disappearances case in conjunction with Callas' murder is possible - we just don't have evidence or a specific informant to point to.

The Fatui actually don't need Navia and the Traveler to be successful. If they aren't successful, then Marcel isn't clearly convicted, and Tartaglia is still on trial. With the absence of conclusive evidence, public opinion (and the Oratrice) may still move to convict Tartaglia. On the other hand, if the Traveler and Navia are successful in convicting the culprit, the Fatui would have to know that the Oratrice would still convict Tartaglia. This is a difficult claim to make, so we will look at in more detail in a moment.

If the Fatui didn't plan for Navia and the Traveler:

This is the simpler option. This means that Navia and the Traveler nearly unwittingly foiled the Fatui's plans to send Tartaglia to the Fortress.

However, we can still propose that if the Fatui knew the Oratrice would determine Tartaglia guilty regardless, this wouldn't have mattered.

With this in mind, we can see that the framework for controlling a performance is satisfied: time and place are fully controlled. People are either mostly controlled, or the performance was nearly a failure, depending on the Fatui's knowledge and reach.

Another point to keep in mind is that the way the second trial was set up, it's a no-lose situation for the Fatui given their goal is to send Tartaglia to the Fortress of Meropide.

In the case that the Traveler and Navia hadn't been on time to interrupt the trial and convict another person, Tartaglia could have made a show of denying charges and going through a trial, at which point it would be easy to weight the trial against him so that he's convicted. The audience already shows distrust in the Fatui, and he could either represent himself or have another represent him - at that point being a poor defense attorney is all that's needed.

As seen during Lyney's trial, the audience doesn't trust the Fatui at all:

Traveler: They're... Fatui? Doubtful Audience Member: No wonder they did something like this. Audience: So the serial disappearances were the Fatui's doing. Huh, now it all makes sense. Doubtful Audience Member: Well, that's it. We might as well move on to the sentencing already.

Even if Tartaglia himself is unaware of the greater plan (like in Liyue), there's not really a way for the Fatui to lose in this situation. If Tartaglia's determined to be guilty, he goes where they want him. If he's determined to be innocent, that's fine, and then they either send some other agent to the Fortress, get Tartaglia to be convicted for a different crime, or send him there through other means with nobody the wiser to their plans and goals. Likewise, even in the case where Marcel is convicted and Tartaglia is declared innocent, they have other options to achieve their goals without alerting anyone of their plans.

We also now have a motivation for Tartaglia to be in Fontaine, which we didn't have before.

Now to look at other evidence that the second trial could have been a ploy.

There are multiple lines comparing the second trial to a performance during the events of the actual trial.

After Marcel is convicted, Tartaglia has multiple lines referring to the trial as a "show":

Childe: Well now, hasn't this been a most delicious piece of drama? The villain has been caught, justice has been served, past wrongs have been righted, and it's a big ol' happy ending... Childe: Since it's been such a great show, I'll just let the false accusations against me slide. Either way, I've still got some business to attend to, so if you'll excuse me...

And he even refers to himself as a character following the outcome of Marcel's trial (but before his own):

Childe: Ah c'mon, is this really necessary? Haven't you already caught the real criminal? Isn't it time for side characters like me to exit stage left?

This can either be a turn of phrase used to remind the player of that emphasis on spectacle, or a hint that Tartaglia's aware of his role as a "character" in the Fontaine plot and that the trial itself is a "show".

In addition, even Furina refers to the second trial as a performance explicitly at the end, after Tartaglia's been declared guilty:

Furina: However, given the state of things, I shall give you an explanation. Everything that just took place — including my supposed shock and bafflement — was a part of an elaborate performance, with every action meant to stir up drama and excitement. Furina: And of course, for every performance, there is a script. Everything has unfolded exactly as I expected from the very beginning. As the embodiment of the very concept of justice, the Oratrice shall never render an arbitrary judgment!

As Neuvillette mentions, it's unlikely Furina actually knew what was going on. However she is lampshading the idea that the trial was a scripted performance - and it's possible it was, she is just unaware of it.

In summary, we have determined it's possible that the second trial was a Fatui plot, as it fits Lyney's framework for controlling a performance. We have also determined a motivation for the Fatui to have accused Tartaglia and set up the trial to declare him guilty and send him to the Fortress of Meropide. In addition, should this plan fail, their plans will not be exposed.

The Oratrice & Tartaglia's conviction

Let's now investigate the possibility that the Fatui knew that the Oratrice would declare Tartaglia guilty no matter what in regards to the serial disappearances case. As a reminder, this doesn't make or break the idea that the second trial was a setup - it only determines the degree to which the Fatui were able to control the trial.

Fully investigating and theorizing on why the Oratrice determined Tartaglia was guilty (and if he truly is or not) is an entire separate endeavor, and we don't have much clear evidence. As this is also not an essential part of this theory, we'll only briefly cover the main points.

To start, let's look at why Tartaglia may have been determined guilty. The relevant points that act as the basis for this line of questioning are (1) that the trial was in regards to the serial disappearances case and (2) any qualities unique to Tartaglia that would cause him to be convicted against what Neuvillette and public opinion would expect.

The specific charge leveled against him is as follows:

Neuvillette: Do you accept the charge that you are the true culprit behind the serial disappearances case?

With respect to the serial disappearances case, the options for how Tartaglia could have been the true culprit in the Oratrice's eyes are (1) that Marcel was acting on his (or his organization's) orders and (2) that Tartaglia has something to do with the existence of or access to the Primordial Sea water that's used as the murder weapon.

The qualities unique to Tartaglia are a little harder to pull out, but may include:

His experience in the abyss

His possession of a delusion and/or physical composition that allows for the Foul Legacy ability

His possession of a hydro-aligned vision

His position as a Harbinger

It's impossible that Marcel was acting on Tartaglia's orders for all of the disappearances (as they began 20 years ago). It's unlikely that he was acting on the Fatui's orders as a whole either - he has a pretty clear motive for himself. The one time he may have been acting on the Fatui's orders is the attempted disappearance during Lyney's trial - if that trial was a ploy. This is of course, given that Marcel is connected to the Fatui at all. However in this case, it's still unlikely that Tartaglia in particular would be the one giving orders to Marcel, or to be the one on the hook for it. The interesting point here is in regards to Marcel's organization, the Confrerie of Cabriere. When we meet Tartaglia in the archon quest, he confronts members of the Confrerie about their outstanding debt to the Northland Bank. So in this case, if Marcel is using Confrerie funds (and potentially agents) to commit the disappearances, and the Northland Bank is funding the Confrerie, and Tartaglia is acting as an authority at the bank while in Fontaine (like as in Liyue), then Tartaglia could be guilty for funding the murders. If this is the Oratrice's reasoning, the Fatui clearly have all the information needed to be aware of this line of reasoning except for the knowledge that Marcel is the culprit (which they still might know), and can hypothesize that Tartaglia will be determined guilty.

The next few possibilities are all tied together. However, we currently don't have much information about them, so a lot of this will be extremely speculative.

The Primordial Sea has its origins at the beginning of life in Teyvat - that is, pre-Celestia. During Tartaglia's experiences in the abyss, it's likely he encountered ruins from pre-Celestial civilization, and therefore could have encountered the sea water. Delusions are also implied to be powered in part by abyssal knowledge. So here we can propose a few different options: (1) that Tartaglia's had an encounter with the Primordial Sea water before, during his time in the abyss, (2) the presence of abyssal power is somehow tied to the Primordial Sea water, and/or (3) that something to do with these experiences caused either (3.1) the Primordial Sea water to start dissolving life rather than creating it, or (3.2) the people in Teyvat (Marcel) to gain access to the water. Since this is all extremely speculative, the main points we want to focus on here are the Oratrice's potential "thought" process, and the possibility of the Fatui to know all of this information. If something in Tartaglia's experience led to the possibility of dissolving people with water, this is a pretty clear line of reasoning for why the Oratrice found him guilty. The real question at this point is how the Oratrice could know this. As for the Fatui's knowledge, we don't really have much information on what the Fatui know about Tartaglia's past and experiences in the Abyss. It's likely that they know about some of it, as it likely contributed to his ability to become a Harbinger. However, Tartaglia's character stories mention he's never brought it up:

No one knew what happened within that darkness during those three months, nor would Ajax ever speak of this to anyone.

But Tartaglia does "speak of this" to the Traveler earlier in the archon quest, so it's clearly untrue now. It's possible that "Ajax" would never speak of it, but "Tartaglia" does. Regardless, there remains the possibility that the Fatui know about his abyssal experiences - at the very least his transformation and powers. We also know that as an organization, the Fatui are investigating the abyss, and it's therefore likely they have looked into or sought to look into the Primordial Sea and its water - the House of the Hearth in particular is interested in the prophecy, and would likely be interested in water that can dissolve people. We can only speculate, but it's possible for the Fatui to have all the information here to make a hypothesis that the Oratrice would determine Tartaglia guilty. If the Oratrice determined in this case that a person would be guilty by merit of having encountered or actively having Primordial Sea water, then Tartaglia could have also ingested some Sinthe in a plan to be determined guilty. We don't have any evidence for this, but it's a possibility.

We haven't seen anyone else in Fontaine yet with a a hydro vision. Neuvillette doesn't have a vision, and although Furina does, she's an archon and it's likely either fake or a different situation. So it's possible there's some connection between Tartaglia having a hydro vision, the Primordial Sea water, and being guilty. However, Tartaglia doesn't have his vision at the trial, so it seems unlikely that it's the presence of a vision that caused the Oratrice's verdict. Instead, it might be the absence of said vision that led to the verdict. This would imply something similar to the previous speculation - Tartaglia's abyssal-aligned powers and/or delusion led to the verdict. Having his vision on him might have suppressed the presence of these factors with the elemental (Celestial) power. Think here of the Pneuma-Ousia interaction: when both are present, it's balanced. If we think of abyssal powers as ousia and Celestial/elemental powers as pneuma, removing one would lead to an imbalance. In addition, the Oratrice is a divine mechanism.

Neuvillette: As a divinely created mechanism, the people's unified faith in the concept of justice is integrated into it.

It's possible this mechanism, being "divinely created", is aligned with Celestia. In this case, people that have elemental/Celestial power (like vision holders) or those who are balanced (no powers) are acceptable. However, one that has abyssal (heretical) power might be automatically guilty. As mentioned before, we're not sure how much the Fatui know about Tartaglia's background, but it's likely they at least know about Foul Legacy as part of his strength that allowed him to become a Harbinger. If nothing else, the delusion may be enough to be declared guilty.

We'll also talk about the importance of Tartaglia not having his vision during the trial in more detail in a later section.

Tartaglia's position as Harbinger does not seem to be a good reason to be determined guilty. In the first trial, Lyney is determined innocent even though he went to investigate the Oratrice. As Neuvillette mentions then:

Neuvillette: While there is much in Lyney and Liliane's conduct that should still be investigated separately... Neuvillette: This case, at least, can be handed over to the Oratrice to make the final decision.

The audience also discusses this after Tartaglia's verdict:

Contemplative Audience Member: I mean, have you ever heard of an innocent Fatui Harbinger? Do you think the Oratrice might have just convicted him on general principle? Doubtful Audience Member: But weren't the charges about the serial disappearances case? No matter what else he's guilty of, it shouldn't affect the verdict in this case, right?

So it seems unlikely that his crimes as a Harbinger would cause him to be determined guilty in this instance, and we can strike this possibility off the list.

In summary, in most of these potential cases, it's feasible for the Fatui to know or hypothesize that there's something to do with Tartaglia that will lead to a guilty verdict from the Oratrice. In the case that they did, they would be able to fully control the outcome of the second trial. Again, we don't know how the Oratrice determines guilt, or if Tartaglia was truly guilty, but the answer to these questions is not essential for the trial to have been a Fatui ploy.

Revisiting motivations for the Fatui to control the trials

Now we'll look at other potential motivations or benefits the Fatui may get from controlling the trials.

If we accept the claim that the second trial was a setup, revisiting the first trial gives us a few more motivations for it being a ploy.

Earlier, we mentioned that one of the outcomes of the first trial was that the serial disappearances case was brought to the forefront, with interest in finding the real culprit, and also that the Fatui were unlikely to be thought of as culprits due to the fact they were framed in the first trial.

This is a perfect setup to create and control a second trial. If someone is accused of being the true culprit in the case, it's likely that this will be a high-profile trial that happens immediately.

But why would they want to accuse Tartaglia in this situation? Wouldn't it be easier to send him to prison for some other crime that they can have him commit? There are multiple reasons we can intuit as answers to these questions.

It's better for Tartaglia to be falsely accused for two reasons. The first is straightforward: it's easier to extract him when his job at the Fortress is done without any repercussions. The second reason goes back to one of the proposed motivations for the Fatui: destabilizing the Fontainian justice system. By having a high-profile trial end with a guilty verdict for someone who the public and Iudex didn't think were guilty, the Fatui successfully sow seeds of doubt in the public's mind. We can see a few reactions after the trial to show that it has shaken belief:

Contemplative Audience Member: She says she has no idea either? But that's impossible... Didn't she create the Oratrice herself? Doubtful Audience Member: ...Yeah, so are the verdicts reliable or not? Can results like this really be called justice?

Furina herself is shaken:

Furina: Ah... Wh—Why are you looking at me? I had nothing to do with it... Furina: I—I don't know what happened there, either... H—Hey, stop staring at me...

And as Neuvillette explains:

Neuvillette: Based on Furina's reaction, I doubt even she had any idea what was going on. She managed to bluff her way through it, though, with time-tested twin tricks of bravado and drama.

There are also potential reasons that this case in particular was chosen.

As Lyney has mentioned, one of the main goals of the Fatui in Fontaine is to combat the prophecy. The Primordial Sea water is intrinsically tied to the prophecy. By using a case that's directly related to their goals, the Fatui are consolidating their efforts and not focusing on irrelevant cases.

In addition, we previously mentioned that one way to understand the Oratrice and its decision-making, as the Fatui aim to do, is to control experiments and hypothesize or analyze the results. In this case, it's controlling trials and then understanding the outcomes. So if the first trial was an experiment to understand how the Oratrice makes decisions, the second trial could have been a second round of the experiment. In this, we have a different verdict, necessary to understand how the Oratrice works. We also have the inclusion of elements that the public don't know about that may affect the verdict. By setting up the trial in this way, the Fatui would be able to glean more information on what information the Oratrice has access to, and what's included in its decision-making.

There is one other point to bring up as to why it needs to be Tartaglia who takes on this mission. The case and Fatui interests so far have been closely tied to the Primordial Sea water and its ability to dissolve people, and it's likely they will continue to investigate it. Every other Fatui member so far we have met in Fontaine is also from Fontaine:

Lyney: All of us House members here, Lady Arlecchino herself included, are from Fontaine. We won't give up on defending our homeland. Lyney: To us orphans, the only connection we have left to this world, apart from our "family," is our homeland.

That is, every other Fatui member mentioned in Fontaine and all the House of the Hearth members can be dissolved by the water. Tartaglia in this case is a perfect storm of being highly ranked (trusted with important missions), Snezhnayan (un-dissolvable), and having possible connections to what information may be investigated or found in the Fortress of Meropide (abyss, Hyperborea). So if the mission involves investigating the Primordial Sea water, Tartaglia is the safest agent to use.

In summary, setting up both trials in this way allows for the Fatui to address some previously stated motivations: learning about how the Oratrice works and destabilizing the justice system.

Section IV TL;DR: We aren't told who accused Tartaglia. Given that it's important that we don't know this information, the Fatui are the best fit to have accused Tartaglia. Their motivation in doing so would be to get Tartaglia sent to the Fortress of Meropide. The Fortress is of interest to the Fatui because of (1) the information network present there as a den and community of criminals, (2) its connection to and potential information about the Oratrice, (3) potential abyssal connections, and (4) potential connections to pre-Celestial civilizations. There is also the implication that it needs to be Tartaglia that is sent there, due to his unique background. It's possible that the second trial was a Fatui ploy, as the Fatui would be able to control the time, place, and most people involved. There is also little risk for the Fatui if staging the trial and getting Tartaglia sent to the Fortress fails. We can also speculate that the Fatui had enough information to know or guess that Tartaglia would be determined guilty by the Oratrice due to his unique properties. Setting up the second trial as an outcome of the first also allows the Fatui to (1) learn more about how the Oratrice works and (2) destabilize faith in the justice system by creating an unprecedented discrepancy in verdict between public and Iudex opinion and that of the Oratrice.

V. Who was in on it?

We'll now discuss the likelihood that particular characters were aware that the trials are Fatui ploys. Much of the evidence presented here strengthens the arguments that the trials are controlled farces.

Tartaglia

We'll start with Tartaglia as his involvement is the most straightforward in the sense that other characters' awareness of the plot don't rely on his, and vice versa.

To begin, here's a piece of characterization from his character stories that's relevant for the situation:

Unlike other members of the Harbingers, who prefer to keep a low profile, Tartaglia will often go to watch public performances — occasionally even becoming part of the show himself.

This can be taken to mean two different things: that he gets serendipitously swept up in performances (in this context, being unaware of the overarching plot and his role in it) or that he deliberately involves himself in the narrative, whether to change the direction or otherwise (in this case, knowing where the plot is going, his role, and being involved in it getting there). Regardless, with Fontaine's emphasis on performances, and Tartaglia's involvement in Fontaine, this isn't something we can overlook.

He also has this line during our first meeting with him in the archon quest:

Childe: But it seems that fate brought our paths together today. Not only will I have some good friends here now, but ones who always seem to find trouble. Childe: Either way you look at it, it seems things are going to get a lot more interesting now.

This can simply be a nod to the Traveler's presence at the heart of the conflict in each nation, or a hint that plans will start to be put in motion specifically because the Traveler is now present - we've mentioned before that someone's keeping an eye on the Traveler's movements, and it seems like in Fontaine, many interactions the Traveler has are because of their past exploits.

Now to look at specific instances in the archon quest. At the beginning of the trial, we see the interaction between Tartaglia and Neuvillette:

Neuvillette: It would appear that I must repeat my question again, Mr. Tartaglia. Neuvillette: Do you accept the charge that you are the true culprit behind the serial disappearances case? Childe: To be perfectly honest, I don't understand your country's complicated court system, or the reason why I'm being charged with something I've never even heard of. Childe: However, I did hear that people who have been charged can choose to participate in a duel to clear their name. Is that right? Childe: In which case, as long as I accept the charge, I can have an all-out fight with that Champion Duelist Clorinde, right? Childe: I've gotta admit, that's one of the most enticing offers I've ever received. Childe: When I privately sparred with her last time, she was obviously holding back... Real disappointing. Furina: Hey, don't you understand? You're currently the prime suspect for a major case! This isn't the place for you to be looking for fights. Childe: Ooh? Sounds like the Hydro Archon wants to lecture me on the ways of the opera house... Childe: Then why don't you duel me, too? I'm the kind of student that learns best in the heat of battle. Furina: A—Ah, no no no, that's not what I meant... Neuvillette: Alas, it would appear that communication with the defendant is going poorly, and we have made very little progress. Neuvillette: In that case, let me explain everything from the very beginning again. The goal of this trial is to determine the culprit behind the serial disappearances case...

At this point the trial is interrupted by Navia, and the trial of Marcel commences.

What's interesting here is that Tartaglia's being vague, just like when asked why he's in Fontaine: he's not outright denying or accepting the charges, but blatantly deflecting and distracting by talking about dueling.

The upshot of which is: though we are led to feel one way because of the outcome of the quest later, at this point we don't know if Tartaglia's actually willing to accept the charges and go on trial or not. So one possibility is that Tartaglia has orders to be determined guilty and sent to the Fortress, and he's making a show of protesting the charges (without actually denying them) so it won't seem like something's up when he eventually goes on trial.

His dialogue throughout the trial scene implies a meta-awareness of the narrative and his role. He makes reference to the trial as a "show":

And even refers to himself as a character following the outcome of Marcel's trial (but before his own):

Childe: Ah c'mon, is this really necessary? Haven't you already caught the real criminal? Isn't it time for side characters like me to exit stage left?

This can either be a turn of phrase used to remind the player of that emphasis on performance, or a hint that Tartaglia's aware of his role as a "character" in the Fontaine plot.

We should also take a closer look at the end of his involvement in the archon quest - that is, his reaction to being declared guilty and the ensuing cutscene.

We'll start with some subjective evidence about his characterization with regards to his actions after being declared guilty.

At the beginning of the cutscene, Tartaglia's expression changes quickly from the shock he had after being declared guilty to a smirk. We can interpret this as dropping a ruse or acting, or we can interpret it simply as impending excitement after making the decision to start a fight.

Why did he start fighting the Gardemeks anyways? If he intended to avoid being sent to prison, going towards the stage and enemies seems like a poor course of action when he can go through the audience to the exit while causing difficulty for the guards. Additionally, in Liyue, we see him transform into hydro to escape the Golden House. It's possible he can't do this with electro, but we haven't seen any noticeable difference between his abilities with hydro or electro. The straightforward interpretation is that he didn't think of that, or that he wanted a fight where he could get one.

Why did he need to use Foul Legacy? We know that it causes some damage to him when used. We've seen him use it twice, and both seem to be "desperate" situations: when his plan seemed to be on the edge of failure in Liyue, and when he needed to defeat the Ruin Guards quickly in his story quest to defend Teucer. The situation in the trial does not seem to be nearly as desperate, and it didn't seem like he was having trouble with just his delusion. In addition, it seems a little strange that he's willing to demonstrate Foul Legacy in front of an audience of the civilian public.

The time it was taking him to transform into Foul Legacy was a lot longer than it did when we are initially introduced to the transformation in Liyue, or during his story quest. It's possible that the time was extended and dramatized for our benefit like in a shounen anime so that we could see Furina, the Traveler, and Paimon's reactions, and also to give some time to have Neuvillette intervene.

Individually each of these points may be easily swept aside, but in combination, it seems like something's off. We could posit that his judgment's impaired as a consequence of his stated "bad mood" and from only having/using his delusion, but it's only been at most a few days since he gave the Traveler his vision. The act of giving up his vision itself likely would not cause major issues, as it was willing, so it's more of a Diluc situation than a Vision Hunt Decree. We don't know how fast deterioration would occur under these circumstances.

Of course, whether you believe that his actions here are "in-character" or a little off is a matter of personal opinion and interpretation - so let's look at the important parts of this scene that are more objective.

In the cutscene, Tartaglia leaps from his balcony to the opera house floor - he quite literally enters the stage from the wings like a character in a play, and then immediately begins a monologue. His earlier comment about it being time for "characters like [him] to exit stage left" is also interesting, because in the cutscene, he enters the opera house stage from stage left.

The ensuing fight all happens on the main stage of the opera, like a performance would, and is suitably dramatic to engage the audience (both in-game and us as players). The enemies (Gardemeks) also enter the main stage from the wings like in a play. At several points during the cutscene, we see what is happening from the point of view of the audience, and it appears quite like watching a stageplay.

Finally, Tartaglia's dramatic transformation happens when he's in the direct center of the stage, with the electro looking like a spotlight. In combination, this becomes pretty heavy-handed imagery that invokes a performance. Additionally, the drama of the scene distracts us as viewers from thinking too deeply on the events and Tartaglia's actions. As Arlecchino says in the Overture trailer:

Arlecchino: But when you're on the stage, you're first and foremost actors Arlecchino: Good actors hone their craft to mesmerize the whole crowd

Combined with Lyney's comments about misdirection being used to distract the viewer, it seems like we have the elements of a performance here. When Tartaglia is on the stage, he mesmerizes the crowd in-game, and us as players, with a cool fight scene, so we don't think too deeply about what else might be going on behind the scenes.

In addition, there's a fun hint from Lyney during the magic show:

Lyney : If the magic is interrupted, who knows where you might end up? You might even find yourself in the Fortress of Meropide.

In this case we might interpret this to mean that the magic (Tartaglia's fight/performance on the opera house stage) was interrupted (by Neuvillette) - and he'll soon find himself in the Fortress of Meropide.

Of course, we can also interpret this as simply being imagery that matches with Fontaine's themes, and not a hint towards Tartaglia's actions being a ploy - but it seems clear there is some meaning in the way this was set up.

As for Tartaglia's motivation for acting this way, given this was a ruse, we can only really speculate. It's possible that the drama of a fight on the main stage of the opera was a misdirection to hide that the trial was a ploy, as mentioned before. Any questions about Tartaglia's willingness to accept a ostensibly false charge and go to prison are dismissed if he very obviously fights the ruling, hiding the Fatui's true motive from the public. (Regardless, if the fight was indeed a performance, then Tartaglia should be nominated for the Genshin Oscars - he can compete with Alhaitham for best actor.)

If we accept that the trial was a ploy, it's difficult to believe that the Fatui would allow Tartaglia to be put on trial without being aware of his role to go to the Fortress - he's notoriously unpredictable, and there are many points during the trial where he could have unintentionally foiled the plot were he not aware of it. We've mentioned some points before, but as a new example, Tartaglia could accept the charges and duel for his innocence. This would be in-character, as we know he loves to fight, and he even mentions this option at the beginning of the trial. We don't know his power scaling in comparison to the Champion Duelists like Clorinde, but it doesn't seem outside the realm of possibility that he could win, especially with Foul Legacy. Were he to do so, he'd be declared innocent and would not be sent to the Fortress. If he threw the battle, Clorinde would likely know, as exemplified by here evidence about Callas during Marcel's trial:

Clorinde: Just one look and I can tell if a duelist is hoping to live, or if they're looking to die.

For the Fatui to control as many variables in the trial as possible while hiding their true motives, Tartaglia would need to be aware of their goals and his role, and have some orders for what actions he should take.

The other major piece of evidence that Tartaglia is in on the Fatui plot has to do with our first meeting with him in Fontaine, and his vision.

Why did Tartaglia give the Traveler his Vision?

First, let's lay out the sequence of events of our first meeting with Tartaglia in Fontaine:

We meet Tartaglia outside Estelle's smithy as he confronts members of the Confrerie of Cabriere about a debt they owe to the Northland Bank.

He fights with the guild members using his vision. There's a lull in the battle, and then when starting up again, his vision malfunctions. He then defeats the guild members.

He talks about being in a bad mood lately. and then talks about his history in the abyss, Skirk, and the whale.

He talks about his spars with Champion Duelists.

He gives the Traveler the vision.

A few points of clarity during this sequence of events in regards to the malfunctioning vision:

When the malfunction first occurs, his reaction seems to imply that this is the first time it's happened, but he doesn't outright state that.

Childe: Huh... That was weird... Traveler: What just happened? / Are you alright? Childe: I'm not sure... It's as if I suddenly lost control of my Hydro powers when I needed them. Maybe there's something wrong with my Vision? Paimon: Strange, how could that happen? First time Paimon's ever heard of someone losing control of their Vision. Childe: Never mind, it doesn't matter. If I wanna stay sharp, I shouldn't be relying too much on my Vision anyway. Besides, I always have my Delusion in case I need it.

So why did his vision malfunction? Obviously we don't know for sure at this point, but there are some deductions we can make.

Tartaglia has already been in Fontaine for a while now, so it's unlikely that his vision not working is tied to his location. However, he does mention a few things that make it a possibility that he hasn't used his vision so far yet while in Fontaine:

Childe: Haha! Long story short, I've already been in Fontaine for some time now, and honestly, things have been pretty boring. Childe: Ugh, can't you at least let me finish one sentence? Fine, though the bank told me not to get rough with our clients... Childe: You're the ones who started it! This is an act of self-defense. You two will have to be my witnesses, okay?

Put together, these two quotes can imply that Tartaglia was under orders not to fight with bank clients. In addition, him calling his time in Fontaine so far "pretty boring" implies he hasn't done anything fun or interesting: for him, a fight.

However, later he mentions that he's been sparring with the Court's duelists.

Childe: No, it's more of a personal appointment. Lately, I've been sparring with some of Fontaine's official Champion Duelists whenever I'm feeling bored.

It seems unlikely that he wouldn't use his vision during these spars, and later he implies that his reasoning for giving the Traveler his vision is so it doesn't interfere in his upcoming spar, so it follows that he has probably used his vision while in Fontaine. There's not clear evidence one way or another here, but it seems unlikely that it's just because he's in Fontaine that his vision didn't work.

There is other speculation we can make as to why his vision didn't work, but most reasoning requires some leaps of logic, as we don't yet have the evidence to sway one way or another. Some examples:

Tartaglia's vision didn't work because he was using it for an illegal purpose (fighting in the streets). We have no evidence that it's possible to turn on/off a vision remotely, and though there's speculation that visions are a tool for the gods (Celestia) to spy on allogenes, it's not laid out in the main quest yet - and we don't know what motivation there would be to turn off his vision. Also we don't know for sure that what he was doing was illegal.

It's due to his bad mood/mood swings or the "rising power". We don't really have any evidence for this. As why don't know why he's in a bad mood, or what that even means yet, it's difficult to investigate the potential effect on his vision. If the "rising power" is abyssal, it could be fighting with the Celestial power of the vision. Again, this is speculation without much evidence.

His vision's tied to a different kind of hydro, or is aligned with the Primordial Sea. This is speculation based on the idea that Tartaglia had an encounter with the Primordial Sea in the abyss, or that he's more sensitive to hydro, so the fluctuations in weather, for example, that are tied to Neuvillette's mood also affect him. The Traveler is able to hear voices from the Primordial Sea at the Fountain of Lucine after ingesting Sinthe - it's possible something similar is happening here. Once again, it's outside the scope of this theory to really dig into this as a possibility.

His "ambition" is wavering. The interesting point here is that we don't have a character story for Tartaglia's vision, like most other characters - just his delusion. This means we don't actually know what his "ambition" that gave him a vision was. From his voicelines and character stories, we can speculate that his repeated mention of a desire to "conquer the world" might be his ambition. We don't have any evidence to point to why that ambition might be wavering, though.

He was acting. Though this is unlikely, it's interesting to think about. If we accept that much of what's going on is a performance by the Fatui, and that Tartaglia is involved and aware of it, then him acting out a vision malfunction as an excuse to give the Traveler his vision is not completely baseless.

In any case, the reasoning for why his vision stopped working is less important at this junction than the reasoning for why he gave it to the Traveler.

It's frankly strange for someone to have their vision malfunction once and to then immediately give it up to someone else without investigating. Yet overall his demeanor when giving the vision to the Traveler is pretty nonchalant and unworried.

Childe: Oh, before I forget, I want you to have this. Paimon: Huh? Your Vision! You're seriously just giving it away!? Childe: I'm just worried that it could become uncontrollable again. I'd be pretty upset if it got in the way of my duel, so I think I'll be better off without it for now. Childe: Besides, I just need you to hold onto it for a short while. I'll come retrieve it when I have some time later. Paimon: Paimon knows what you're up to! You just want an excuse to come talk to us again, don't you? Childe: Haha, whatever gave you that idea? I'll be in touch, later.

His stated reason is that he's worried it'll malfunction again during his duel. Giving his vision to the Traveler is not the easiest or most straightforward solution to this problem: he can take it off an give it to a subordinate or leave it in his luggage during the duel. We'd also think that the Fatui have better information and resources on how visions work that the Traveler, who doesn't even have a vision, given that they were able to make delusions. It's possible that Tartaglia doesn't trust the Fatui to help with this problem - likewise, it's true that Tartaglia trusts the Traveler, as shown by his willingness to share his past with them, and as he outright states in his teapot voicelines:

Tartaglia: And in the heat of battle, I know that you'd have my back. Traveler: You're not afraid that I might backstab you? Tartaglia: This is the level of trust I place in you.

However, it's likely that there's more going on here. From a narrative perspective, there's a reason either that (1) the Traveler needs to have Tartaglia's vision, or (2) Tartaglia needs to not have his vision in the ensuing events of the plot.

As for the first option, we don't yet have evidence as to why the Traveler might need to be in possession of a vision, a hydro vision, or Tartaglia's vision in particular. The Traveler already has resonated with hydro and can use it, so it seems unlikely that that's the reason. It's possible that the Traveler needs to have a Celestial object, of which a vision would qualify. However, neither of these options address what motivation Tartaglia might have for giving the Traveler his vision, or why the narrative gave us his vision in particular. To wildly speculate, the Fatui could be able to spy on or track the Traveler by following Tartaglia's vision - but we don't have evidence for this other than the fact that we know someone's keeping tabs on the Traveler's movements (see: the man in Caravan Ribat at the beginning of the archon quest).

If we investigate the idea that Tartaglia needs to be without his vision for the plot, a few interesting options arise.

We've previously speculated that Tartaglia not having his vision could have been essential to being declared guilty by the Oratrice. To summarize, without his vision and its Celestial alignment balancing his delusion and abyssal powers, the Oratrice may have seen something that would determine him to be guilty. We also discussed that it's possible that the Fatui were testing the Oratrice's decision-making this way, or deliberately used this as a way to get Tartaglia declared guilty. If we accept that the Fatui have a goal of sending Tartaglia to the Fortress of Meropide, we might also speculate that Tartaglia gave the Traveler his vision so that he wouldn't have it at the Fortress. We don't know exactly how the prison there works, but it seems likely that prisoners would need to be "unarmed" - in this case to give up a vision. If Tartaglia knew he was going to the Fortress, he may have given the Traveler his vision so that it wouldn't get taken into custody, and he would be able to get it back easily without bureaucracy after he left prison, either by escaping or by his sentence being overturned. In addition, giving up the vision willingly to the Traveler means he wouldn't experience any negative effects of not having his vision, which he might experience if it was forcibly taken by the Fortress (again, see Diluc's revenge vacation vs. the Vision Hunt Decree). In these situations, it's likely that Tartaglia's aware of the Fatui plans, though it's still possible that the narrative was contrived to have him give up his vision without him knowing what was in store.

However, the most glaring piece of evidence that makes it seem like Tartaglia gave up his vision for a deliberate reason - and knew of his upcoming performance - comes from Lyney.

During the magic show, Lyney says the following:

Lyney: Now, some of you may be thinking: Two Vision holders who can freely manipulate elemental powers performing magic is not true magic at all. Lyney: So, I would like to take a moment to assure you that elemental powers will have nothing to do with what you will witness on the stage today. Lyney: Both Lynette and myself have removed our Visions for the show. That way, even the gods won't be able to help us. Paimon: Oh, good point. That's what makes the show real magic!

Here we have Lyney and Lynette removing their visions for their performance. Even more blatant is one of Lyney's voicelines:

If a magician were to go onstage with their Vision in hand, people might suspect the authenticity of their tricks, so I habitually take it off before performing. But since you're interested, why don't you help me hold on to it while I perform? Just be sure to keep an eye on it, though — or it might just sneak its way back to me!

If we compare this line to Tartaglia's situation and what he says while giving the Traveler his vision, it seems too deliberate to be a coincidence. Lyney takes off his vision before performing, gives it to the Traveler, and tells them to keep an eye on it with the implication that he will take it back when the performance is done. Tartaglia gives the Traveler his vision, and tells us that he intends to come see the Traveler again and take it back - clear premeditation. This parallel lends itself as evidence for our claim that Tartaglia is intending to "perform" while the Traveler holds on to his vision, and may imply this is so his "tricks" and performance seem authentic.

One final parallel to mention with regards to Tartaglia is the similarities between our interactions with him in Fontaine so far and the interactions we had with him in Liyue.

We've mentioned that samsara cycles and history repeating itself have been major themes in Sumeru and in Fontaine. With that in mind, here's a sequence of events: the traveler is introduced to Tartaglia, who fights with a few members of an organization in the country. Afterwards, they have a somewhat amiable discussion, during which Tartaglia gives the Traveler information relevant to the plot, as well as a physical token.

In the Liyue archon quest, this is how we're first introduced to Tartaglia, ending with him giving us the Sigil of Permission, and here it's our re-introduction to him in the Fontaine archon questline. As a refresher, in Liyue, Tartaglia gave the Traveler the Sigil of Permission and followed the Traveler's exploits afterwards to gain information for his own plans, often leading the Traveler by the nose and introducing them to relevant parties for his goals. As a side note, Tartaglia's interactions with the Traveler at the beginning of the Liyue archon quest were under the guise of helping the Traveler be declared innocent from a clearly false charge of murder - and we have the opposite happening in Fontaine.

Besides being an interesting narrative parallel, this also is a relevant note of characterization: rather than "Tartaglia is straightforward and doesn't scheme", I'd posit it's more like "Tartaglia prefers not to scheme and is straightforward about some things to deflect from others". He's clearly demonstrated that he's willing to mislead the Traveler and use them to gather information or for his own plans. In Liyue, he doesn't hide the fact that he's Fatui or "kind of a bad guy", but this honesty helps distract us from his hidden motives in using the Traveler for intel. Giving the Traveler his vision for unstated motives (or, using the Traveler to hold his vision) and obscuring his real purpose in Fontaine seem to align with his previous behavior in archon quests. The Traveler even refers to this during Lyney's trial:

If we look at Liyue also as an example of how Tartaglia is used by the Fatui, he was effectively used as a distraction for what the actual overall Fatui plot was. It's possible that Fontaine will shake out similarly: Tartaglia's trial and any chaos he may therefore cause is a distraction for the grander scheme of Fatui involvement. Like in Liyue, it's possible he has his own orders and isn't aware of the grander plan, but it's also possible that Fontaine will be different for him, and he will be aware of the grander plan, as seems to align with the other evidence we've laid out. (It'd also be more interesting from a character development perspective if he's aware, but that's subjective.)

Finally, if we accept the previously stated claims that (1) the Fatui want to send Tartaglia to the Fortress of Meropide, (2) Tartaglia's aware of this plan, and (3) the Fortress of Meropide has connections to Hyperborea and the abyss, then Tartaglia has personal motivation for being part of the events in Fontaine.

To our knowledge, it seems like Tartaglia follows the orders and missions he gets without many issues, so he doesn't necessarily need personal motivation to enact the Fatui plans. In this case, however, there is that bonus.

During our first meeting in Fontaine, Tartaglia states that he wants to go back to where he fell into the abyss:

We previously claimed that Tartaglia likely encountered Hyperborea during his time in the abyss, and drew connections between the Fortress of Meropide and both the abyss and Hyperborea. If the Fatui are aware of these connections, then by going to the Fortress, Tartaglia can help the Fatui's goals as well as his own.

In summary, there's quite a bit of evidence that seems to support the claim that Tartaglia is in on the plot to control trials. In addition, given his awareness of the plot, the Fatui have stronger control of the "people" element of the second trial, helping both to put on the performance, and possibly to control the variables in an Oratrice decision-making experiment.

Section V Tartaglia TL;DR: It seems likely that Tartaglia is aware of his role in the Fatui plot, and has orders to be sent to the Fortress of Meropide. The imagery and details of his fight "performance" on the opera house main stage seem to hint that it was a ploy. The fact that Tartaglia gave the Traveler his vision - and expects to take it back - means that there's a reason that he needs to not have a vision within the narrative, and there's evidence to support that the reason is that he intends to put on an authentic "performance" without his vision, as laid out in Lyney's voicelines. There are many parallels between our interactions with Tartaglia in Fontaine and those in Liyue, where he used the Traveler for his goals, and deflected from his true motives with honesty about other topics. Tartaglia also has personal motivation to be sent to the Fortress of Meropide, in alignment with the Fatui's goals. Tartaglia being aware of his role and the plot strengthens the claim that the second trial was a ploy, as it allows the Fatui more control of the circumstances.

Lyney and co.

Now let's investigate if Lyney, Lynette, and other related parties could have been in on the Fatui plot.

We've already mentioned quite a few coincidences and suspicious points and actions from Lyney and co. throughout the quests, but to mention a few more: our seemingly contrived first meeting and the Paimon balloon, and his access to information that would allow him to set up events of the first trial. We'll look at these in some detail, but we'll start with bigger-picture evidence.

First is a quote from his character stories:

After all, truth and falsehoods were already inextricable in many parts of the performance — why, even the magician himself could be said to have become a part of the magic.

It seems to be implying Lyney's become part of the performance itself.

Once Lyney and Lynette are exposed as Fatui in the trial, he apparently comes clean to the Traveler:

Lyney: That's why I didn't wish to flat-out lie to you, but chose to hide some details instead. Lyney: The truth is very important, but being completely transparent about everything would see us spending more effort than we need to. Traveler: But how can we know this isn't all just another lie? Lyney: Right. So, you be the judge. Heck, if I were you, I fear that I'd even struggle to trust me at this point. Lyney: You met a Fatuus who works as a magician, a trickster by trade... all by coincidence, too. Lyney: But still, I'm asking you to trust me. I am no criminal... at least, not in this case.

His dialogue here is pretty reminiscent of our first meeting with Tartaglia in Liyue:

Childe: In Mondstadt, I don't suppose you came across a "Signora" by any chance? Paimon: Signora... Childe... Paimon: You're Fatui! One of the Harbingers! Childe: Oh, no. Don't worry, I'm not looking for a fight. Childe: Signora gave you quite the bad impression huh? Tsk, that woman... Can't say I'm a fan either. Childe: Right, let's forget all about her, shall we? I'm here to help you. Traveler: Help? / I don't need help from the Fatui. / Go. Leave. Childe: Yes. Help. / Come now, don't be like that. / Sure, I may be one of the Harbingers, but hear me out. Childe: I'm not a bad guy... Okay perhaps I'm kind of a bad guy, but I'm not here to give you any trouble. Childe: Would it be too much to ask for you to keep the sword sheathed? Childe: Haha, I thank you for your knightly nobility, Player. Childe: I heard of your deeds in Mondstadt, so I couldn't help but notice you during the proceedings back there. Childe: And because I had my eye on you the whole time, I know it wasn't you. Someone else was clearly behind it. Childe: But... regrettably, given I'm a Fatui envoy from Snezhnaya... there's no way I'd be trusted after something of this magnitude. Childe: The ruling Qixing of Liyue has always been overly suspicious of us. Paimon: Well can you honestly blame them? Childe: Hahaha. Guess I shouldn't try to deny that.

In both of these instances, Lyney and Tartaglia empathize with the Traveler by being honest about the inherent distrust they may have about the Fatui, and then ask them to make an exception, making them seem reasonable and fully honest and aware of the situation. As previously mentioned, in Tartaglia's case this is partly a ruse or misdirection to hide from his aim to use the Traveler to gain intel for his own ends. It stands to reason Lyney could be doing something similar: empathizing with the Traveler about his deception, and being honest to distract from any hidden motives that he didn't share (yet).

It's also possible that Lyney and Lynette aren't in on the plot, without affecting the scheme too much. In the Overture trailer, Lyney and Lynette are just standees at the end, and it is Arlecchino who's real.

So it may be that Arlecchino is using them for her own ends without their knowledge. It's possible that they also have only parts of the information and certain orders (invite the Traveler to your magic show), but aren't in on the master plan of everything. Lyney does imply that he's being earmarked to take over from the current Knave later, so it's possible he has more insight into the goings-on at the Hearth:

[...]No king rules forever, of course, and I know that one day I will be chosen as "Father's" successor...[...]

It's also possible that Lyney's aware of the plot and Lynette and the others aren't. In Lyney's character stories, se have the following line:

To preserve the secret behind the magic trick, even Lynette and Freminet knew not what was within.

The magic trick in this instance was a box that magically held "Father" - Arlecchino. So it may be that Lyney, as the future head of the Hearth, knows the plans, and withholds this information from Lynette and the other kids.

Let's now list all the potential suspicious events involving Lyney, and see what we're missing an explanation for.

Lyney and Lynette meeting the Traveler and Paimon as soon as they enter Fontaine. As previously mentioned, someone's keeping tabs on the Traveler's movements, and the Fatui could therefore be aware of them. In addition, if the Fatui have interest in controlling the characters at the first trial, and using the Traveler as part of their plot, then this is deliberate.

The Paimon balloon. Unexplained for now, but will be addressed in the Liliane section.

Lyney failing to catch the thief and his apparently twisted ankle that quickly starts healing. Unexplained for now, but will be addressed in the Liliane section.

Lyney sending us to Estelle's, where we meet Tartaglia. This doesn't seem too suspicious until we look at the big picture and accept the idea of a Fatui plot. Given that premise, it's possible that this meeting was a deliberate setup. If we accept that Tartaglia's aware of his role and wants/needs to give the Traveler his vision, he may have coordinated with Lyney to meet the Traveler prior to the trials. Lyney brings us to the House of the Hearth, and then delays our next action by chatting with us and blaming it on the rain. He then asks us to go to Estelle's on Freminet's behalf. This delay could have been used to coordinate with Tartaglia (and the Confrerie) and stage a coincidental meeting.

Lyney speaking to Cowell about the props prior to the magic show. Unexplained for now, but will be addressed in the Cowell section.

Lyney being able to reserve seats at the opera house. Previously explained as a way of demonstrating that Lyney and the Fatui have the ability to know who will be at the magic show (and trial) in order to control that performance. This will be addressed again in the Liliane section.

The next few sections will attempt to explain the remainder of these events.

Liliane

We mentioned earlier that Liliane's at the center of a number of suspicious coincidences. She's the thief that appears at the beginning of the archon quest, and then was sitting in the seat that was deliberately chosen to be the volunteer, which led to her being involved in the serial disappearances case.

Looking at the events in closer detail, when we first see Liliane, Lyney points out that she's a thief, and then asks the Traveler to help catch her. The Traveler goes where Lyney tells them to in order to catch her:

Lyney: You two can ride the lift over there and wait up top. I bet that'll be her escape route if she tries to run. [...] Paimon: This is the spot where Lyney wanted us to wait. Paimon: Oh, look! Isn't that her!? Traveler: Get ready to stop her! / Time to make the arrest! Paimon: Oh no, did she notice us? She started running the other direction! Paimon: What should we do? Should we chase her? Traveler: Our job is to block this path. / The rest is up to Lyney.

We then go and find Lyney, and he says he was unable to catch the thief:

Lyney: That's right, pity I wasn't able to catch her. She distracted me by dropping the things she stole on the ground. By the time I looked back, she was already gone. Lynette: I saw the general direction she went, but Lyney twisted his ankle, and I needed to make sure he was okay. Paimon: Oh? Did you get hurt, Lyney? Lyney: I'll be alright. It's just a twisted ankle, that's all. In fact, it's feeling better already. [...] Lyney: But at least we were able to get the stolen items back, so it wasn't a complete failure.

It's somewhat suspicious that Lyney twisted his ankle and was unable to catch her, but then immediately waves off his injury, and says it's better already.

But the real important piece of information comes from during the first trial. We learn who Liliane is, and that she impersonated the person (Halsey) that was supposed to be at the show. She also says this:

Liliane: I heard that Lyney's show was going to be a real thriller, but I missed the chance to buy a ticket, so I stole one.

So we now know that Liliane stole the magic show ticket. This fact, along with Lyney's previous suspicious behavior, means we can propose a claim: Lyney planted the magic show ticket on Liliane during their altercation at Romaritime Harbor.

At the Harbor, Lyney enlists our help to funnel Liliane towards him by having the Traveler cut off alternate escape routes. He then plants the ticket on Liliane while she drops other stolen items in her escape. This also explains why Lyney fakes the ankle injury - he aims to let Liliane go, as he has the goal of having her attend the magic show. Liliane believes she's stolen the ticket, as it appears on her person after she engages in some thieving. Lyney's method of planting the ticket can be likened to the string he plants on Paimon and the Traveler earlier in the quest - and it explains the necessity of that scene: giving us the evidence that he can do such a thing.

To explain why Lyney would want to do this, we will have to look at the other people involved in the magic show crime and trial.

Cowell & Vaughn

As these two are revealed to be accomplices, we need to look at their actions together.

Most of what we know of Cowell comes from posthumous investigation. The only time he's mentioned in the quest prior to his death (besides his role during the show) is when we first meet Lyney in the Opera:

Cowell: Hey, Lyney! Could you come over here and take a look at this? Lyney: Oh, I'll be right there. Seems there's an issue with the stage props over there. That's Cowell, my assistant, calling me. I'll go lend him a hand.

We'll come back to this suspicious interaction.

The other information we have about Cowell comes when investigating from a Garde:

Esmond: The deceased is one of Lyney's assistants, named Cowell. Even though he hadn't joined the troupe long, he was hardworking and everyone generally liked him. Esmond: The assistants are usually in charge of setting up and inspecting the props, as well as assisting with the show and keeping the crowd engaged.

During the events of the trial, we find out Cowell was part of a plot to frame the Fatui for the serial disappearances:

Esmond: We discovered several test tubes of fluid within Cowell's baggage, each labeled separately. Esmond: The notebook in his backpack claims that these fluids are "Water from the Primordial Sea." Neuvillette: The Primordial Sea... Esmond: The notes' contents also indicate that Cowell belonged to an organization that sells illegal drugs, and that he had an accomplice. Esmond: The notebook has many entries concerning safe usage of these fluids, in which the keyword "dissolve" appears many times. Esmond: One of these tubes was labeled "Opera Epiclese" along with yesterday's date. It is empty. Esmond: The notes also state that these dissolution properties work exclusively on people from Fontaine. It's likely that Halsey was chosen as some sort of test subject.

When Vaughn confesses, we gain a few more clues about both his and Cowell's roles:

Neuvillette: I suspect that the accomplice mentioned in Cowell's notes was not Lyney, but you, yes? [...] Vaughn: I—I was just following orders! Vaughn: We were supposed to place blame for the serial disappearances onto Lyney and thus cause suspicion to fall on the Fatui. The higher-ups said that this was the best opportunity to do so. Neuvillette: And now that your plan has fallen through, and the secrets of the Water have been revealed, you have become a liability to said higher-ups, yes? Neuvillette: Therefore, you would be wise to tell everything you know and seek the protection of the Gardes. Vaughn: Y—Yes! I'll tell you everything I know! Vaughn: Our boss discovered that the Water can cause people to dissolve. Vaughn: It can also be made into a potion which, when extremely diluted, can cause people to experience unforgettable exhilaration. Vaughn: We've been in this business for a while now and have made decent Mora off it. The disappearances were also the boss' idea. I mean, this is the boss we're talking about, the—

We can also speak to Vaughn during the investigation, which leads to an interesting conversation:

Vaughn: Lyney used the machine to pick a random member of the audience during his performance, right? The lucky girl that later disappeared. Vaughn: Well, we thought there might be a serious problem with the machine, so we had it taken away for further inspection. Quentin: It turns out that the seat number it picked wasn't random at all. The machine picks that same number every time. Quentin: I'm sure you already know that you have to make a reservation in advance to get a seat, regardless of whether it's a trial or some performance. Quentin: In other words, Lyney knew who would be sitting where from the very beginning.

So now in summary what we know of Cowell is:

He was a relatively new member of the magic troupe, and was in charge of setting up and inspecting props.

He spoke to Lyney about the props prior to the magic show.

He's part of the organization making Sinthe (run by Marcel) and likely had orders to dissolve someone in order to frame Lyney and the Fatui.

What we know of Vaughn is:

He's working as a Garde in the Opera.

He is either the Garde or one of the Gardes that brought attention to the seat-selector prop that was tampered with to choose a specific seat.

He is Cowell's accomplice.

He's part of the Sinthe organization (run by Marcel) and planted the Primoridal Sea water in Lyney's effects on orders to frame Lyney and the Fatui.

From these facts, we can attempt to lay out what happened behind the scenes of the crime.

Cowell and Vaughn received orders from higher-up in the Sinthe organization to frame Lyney and the Fatui for the serial disappearances at the magic show. To do so, Cowell joined the magic troupe, and Vaughn joined work as a Garde at the Opera (though he may have already been working there and was chosen for that reason). Cowell tampered with the seat-selector so it would choose a volunteer that fit the profile for the serial disappearances, a Fontainian girl (Halsey). He also tampered with the rope of the water tank so that it would fall and hide the evidence of the Primordial Sea water. Lyney planted the magic show ticket on Liliane and changed the person who would be the volunteer. The new volunteer looked like she could fit the profile for the disappearance victims, so Cowell didn't notice the switch. When the crime occurred, Cowell was taken off-guard by Liliane not disappearing, so she was able to get the jump on him and stuff him in the box. When the investigation began, Vaughn drew attention to the tampered seat-selector as evidence to frame Lyney. Later in the trial, when it seemed like Lyney would be acquitted, Vaughn planted the water in Lyney's things to frame him. The reappearance of Liliane allowed for Lyney to be acquitted and the method of the disappearances to be exposed, also exposing Cowell and Vaughn's plans. When Vaughn is questioned, he confesses and is dramatically dissolved before naming his boss.

There are a few further things to discuss with these events.

Firstly, Vaughn planting the water in Lyney's things seems not to track with how Cowell attempted to hide the murder weapon (water) by tampering with the tank. One possibility is that Vaughn decided to do this on the spot, when it seemed like their plot was failing. Another option is that the frame-job was also a setup, and Vaughn had different orders from Cowell. We'll continue to explain this option moving forward.

The second point of interest here: what did Lyney know? If we accept the claim that he planted the ticket on Liliane, then it seems like switching Halsey for Liliane was a deliberate move. If it was, it seems to imply that he or someone giving him orders knew that there would be an attempted crime and frame-job during the magic show, and moved to expose it. Lyney speaks to Cowell about the props prior to the show, which may be a hint that he's aware of the modified seat-selector and let it be, or even that Lyney was the one that tampered with it. On the other hand, that conversation could just be foreshadowing for the events of the magic show.

An important question at this junction: if Lyney was aware of the plot, and/or deliberately put Liliane in the place of Halsey, does that mean he's party to the murder of Cowell? Though it's possible, on a meta level it seems unlikely, based on past situations, that Hoyoverse would allow a playable character to commit an on-screen murder - some level of plausible deniability is needed.

This issue can be resolved, however, if we look more closely at the events. Liliane explains what happens during the show:

Liliane: So I played along with the show while looking for an opening to flee, but then I got water poured on me for no reason, and then someone jumped into the tunnel to nab me... Liliane: I wasn't going to take that lying down, so I knocked him out and stuffed him into the box. [...] Liliane: But I swear I didn't know that the water tank would fall down. Really, I swear it! Liliane: Had I known that, I wouldn't have put him in the magic box! I may be a thief, but I'm no killer!

From this we can propose that Cowell's death was unplanned. Lyney (or whoever gave him orders) switched Halsey with Liliane, but did not expect her to win a fight against Cowell, nor for her to put him in the box when she did. If Liliane loses the fight, Cowell can successfully abduct her and nobody's in the box when the tank falls. Likewise, if Liliane hadn't put Cowell in the box, then nobody would have been in the box when the tank fell - a failed magic trick but not deadly. In both instances, Liliane would have still been missing, and so a trial might still occur with regards to the serial disappearances. In this way, Cowell's death is an accident and wasn't something Lyney could have known about. Lyney has a relevant voiceline:

Of course, there's no way to ensure that you'll never slip up when performing magic tricks. The way I see it, the point is not to perform perfectly, but to stay calm at all times and adapt as needed. Even if some small flaws occur, you just need to make the audience believe that it's all part of the show, and you'll still deliver an entertaining and unforgettable performance!

In this case, Cowell's death was one of those "small flaws" in the performance.

Several times now, we've mentioned someone giving Lyney orders, and that Cowell and Vaughn received orders from "higher-ups" in their organization. Let's now take a closer look at those potential authorities.

Vacher/Marcel

We should investigate Marcel for a few reasons: first, he's ostensibly the person who ordered Cowell and Vaughn to frame the Fatui for the serial disappearances, and secondly, he and his organization seem tied to the Fatui in more ways than can be coincidence.

Let's address the second point first. Marcel and the Fatui seem to be connected in a number of ways: the Fatui are framed for the serial disappearances, and it turns out the real culprit was Marcel. Marcel runs both the Sinthe business and the Confrerie of Cabriere (which are likely but not definitely separate organizations). The Confrerie of Cabriere owes money to Northland Bank. The Sinthe business is behind the failed framing of the Fatui in the first trial. Overall the two seem very intertwined, and in a complicated way.

In addition, as we've mentioned before, Marcel is Snezhnayan. This doesn't mean he's part of the Fatui but it is a flag to make us think of the Fatui. Marcel being Snezhnayan is a deliberate choice, as he only needs to be non-Fontainian for his character motivations to work.

The most straightforward reasoning for these coincidences might be: Marcel attempted to frame Lyney because the Confrerie owes money to the Fatui in an attempt to undermine their power in Fontaine and get the heat off of him, and the Confrerie had chosen to use Northland Bank in the first place because Marcel's Snezhnayan and comfortable with organizations from his homeland. The problems here is that it firstly assumes Marcel knows Lyney's Fatui, and secondly that framing and convicting the Fatui for the serial disappearances cases would help erase Marcel's debt. The first problem is not too hard to overcome with an information network. The second is more difficult to address. It's likely that should the Northland Bank get less business after the Fatui were convicted for the crime (which is likely), they would come down even harder on the debts they were owed to make up for the lack of new business. Potentially Marcel was also at the end of his rope and taking drastic action when it seemed like the cases would come to the forefront again, as we see from his villain monologue at the end of the second trial. But we can only speculate here.

An easily overlooked piece of information that might help shed light on this is that Marcel is not the only mastermind behind the Sinthe production and Callas' death. We find notes in the Sinthe production base that are a discussion between at least two people.

Paimon: Seems like we've got a bunch of correspondence between the higher-ups...

So there is at least one other person at the top of the Sinthe and disappearances ladder.

Vaughn also alludes to this in his confession, making reference to the "higher-ups":

Vaughn: I—I was just following orders! Vaughn: We were supposed to place blame for the serial disappearances onto Lyney and thus cause suspicion to fall on the Fatui. The higher-ups said that this was the best opportunity to do so. [...] Vaughn: We've been in this business for a while now and have made decent Mora off it. The disappearances were also the boss' idea. I mean, this is the boss we're talking about, the—

Here, Vaughn dissolves before he explicitly names "the boss", which we previously mentioned could either be an important hint, or just an obfuscation so that we can investigate and figure out Marcel. It seems likely that "the boss" refers to Marcel, as it's a singular and "the boss" is the one who discovered the water could dissolve people. However, this isn't known for sure.

The other interesting point here is that we believe Marcel is the one who dissolved Vaughn because Navia claims that during the second trial:

Navia: And at the end of Lyney's trial, the culprit also only dissolved the victim in front of everyone because they realized they were at risk of being identified. Navia: The culprit could only time their actions so precisely if they were already at the scene.

Marcel refutes this:

Marcel: On top of that, does a person have to be physically present to control the timing? Can't someone remotely monitor the place?

The relevant information we now have:

There is at least one other "higher-up" in the Sinthe organization that Marcel runs.

Vaughn's orders to frame the Fatui were from the "higher-ups".

Vaughn doesn't explicitly name "the boss" before dissolving.

We don't know for sure who triggered Vaughn's dissolution.

We will use this information to attempt to explain more about the crime and trial by making the following claim: There is another person, a "higher-up" in the Sinthe organization, that is working on Fatui orders or as a Fatui agent and informant.

The presence of this Fatui agent helps address some holes and risks in the magic show crime and trial plots, as well as the amount of connections Marcel has to the Fatui, and explains why there seems to be some deliberate obfuscation of names with regards to the frame-job.

If everything with regards to the first trial was a Fatui plot, including the crime, the events have clear motivations and can easily be explained.

The Fatui have the agent in the Sinthe organization plan to frame the Fatui during the magic show. They present this plot to Marcel as a way to ensure he isn't discovered, and he agrees with the plan. At the same time, the Fatui have Lyney switch Halsey with Liliane, which will foil the framing. The proposed series of events at the show would likely be similar to what actually happened, minus Cowell's death. Lyney would be the main suspect, as the head of the magic troupe. Cowell would possibly also be interrogated. From the Sinthe organization's side, it would be simple to name Lyney and Cowell accomplices and give Cowell up if Cowell is found out, placing responsibility on the Fatui. From the Fatui's perspective, they are able to expose Cowell's ties and methods, and show that it was an attempted framing, successfully removing suspicion on the Fatui. On the other hand, Cowell's death could have been in the plan - it would tie up loose ends by removing his ability to confess. In this case, Vaughn's actions of planting the water in Lyney's things were premeditated, and would have gone to plan if Liliane didn't resurface. As such, Liliane's existence is a crucial point to fully exonerate Lyney and the Fatui in the trial. It's probable that if Navia hadn't appeared, it would have been investigated in more detail. Vaughn could have been dissolved by Marcel, or by this other higher-up in a dramatic demonstration of the water's power before he fully confessed, which aids the Fatui's goals of exposing the water's ability and the validity of the prophecy.

In this way, everything about the events of the trial are under the Fatui's control, like we initially posit.

Marcel's Fatui connections are also explained: besides the fact that the framing is an inside job, the Confrerie owing money to Northland Bank might be a deliberate move by a Fatui agent in their management. The Fatui also now have a way to gain information about Marcel and his actions, and because of Marcel's connections, it's likely they could be aware of some of Navia's movements as well.

As an aside, it's possible this person also was responsible for Navia's attempted murder. If we going along with the claim that the second trial was a setup, the Fatui might have a vested interest in preventing Navia and the Traveler from investigating the disappearances and discovering Marcel, as they want to send Tartaglia to prison. Of course, it's highly likely this murder attempt was Marcel anticipating Navia discovering him, rather than a Fatui plot, as the Fatui stood to benefit from Marcel being exposed.

What we now have here is a conspiracy and plot that explains a number of suspicious coincidences. Cowell and Vaughn have orders to dissolve and/or abduct a girl and frame the Fatui by controlling the volunteer chosen at the magic show. Lyney has orders to plant a ticket on Liliane, explaining his suspicious behavior at Romaritime Harbor, and also (potentially unknowingly) successfully foiling Cowell and Vaughn's plot to dissolve a Fontainain girl by replacing her with an immune Mondstadter. Foiling the plot in this way exposes the method of the disappearances crime, as the attempted dissolution fails and there's a witness to the attempted crime. The Fatui can use this setup to expose the existence of Primordial Sea water and reinforce the prophecy, ensure the Fatui aren't seen as potential culprits by exposing a frame-job, and set up interest in an investigation into the real culprit, allowing them to stage a second trial. All of this can easily happen from a single person high in the Sinthe organization owing their loyalties to the Fatui.

We can now also explain the rest of Lyney's suspicious actions:

The Paimon balloon. Shows that Lyney's sleight of hand can be used to leave marks/plant items on people.

Lyney failing to catch the thief and his apparently twisted ankle that quickly starts healing. He planted the magic show ticket on Liliane and wanted her to escape.

Lyney speaking to Cowell about the props prior to the magic show. It's possible he's in on and aware of the plot to frame the Fatui, thanks to the information from their agent in the Sinthe organization, or it's possible this was just a hint to Cowell's involvement. This could be in reference to the seat selection machine, in which case it might make sense that Lyney would want it to remain in a tampered state.

Lyney being able to reserve seats at the opera house. Shows that he has access to this information, which means he could know who he was replacing with Liliane, and potentially even could have set up who others would think the person in that seat would be. Also shows the Fatui could know who would be in attendance at the trial (Neuvillette, etc.).

With this information in mind, let's revisit the first trial. We laid out how the Fatui would be able to control the time and place of the performance, and that only some people would be under their control. With the claims made in this section, all the people that we didn't think were under Fatui control previously can now be under their control. Based on our previous conclusions, these people include:

People that have a tentative connection to the Fatui: Cowell, Liliane, Marcel

People connected to Marcel: Vaughn, Cowell, Navia

If Lyney plants the magic show ticket on Liliane during their altercation at the beginning of the archon quest, he has successfully controlled her - and has controlled the volunteer for the disappearance trick.

If we accept the presence of another "higher-up" that's in league with Marcel, and that that person is a Fatui informant or agent, then Cowell and Vaughn fall under Fatui control, and the Fatui can keep tabs on Marcel and Navia. Cowell and Vaughn receive orders from this "higher-up" to frame the Fatui, which successfully sets up the conditions for the trial without tying their orders back to the Fatui - instead, Marcel's organization is implicated. Marcel no longer needs to be controlled in the first trial beyond being aware of his movements, and the same is true for Navia. In this way, we can explain and account for all the major players at the first trial, and the Fatui can ensure that the performance goes to plan.

We also have a very good level of compartmentalization of information. At minimum, Lyney only needs to have orders to plant the magic show ticket on Liliane. He can be otherwise innocent and unaware of everything else that goes on. Cowell and Vaughn get orders from the "higher-ups", but don't know that those higher-ups are working in Fatui interest - instead they only associate them with Marcel's Sinthe operation. Cowell only needs to know to try to dissolve the volunteer and to abduct her no matter what, and to tamper with the tank rope to hide the evidence. He could tamper with the seat-choosing device, or that could have been Lyney. Vaughn only needs to know to plant the water in Lyney's effects to try to frame the Fatui. Together, Cowell and Vaughn only know they are attempting to frame the Fatui for the disappearances, not why or who's ordering it. Marcel doesn't need to be aware of anything. The higher-up in his organization that's aligned with the Fatui is the only one that knows about the plan to frame the Fatui - but that person doesn't need to know about Lyney's orders to have Liliane be the volunteer, and in fact, might not even necessarily know that they are working for the Fatui. A quick diagram of how this information tree plays out is shown below:

Section V Lyney and co. TL;DR: It's likely Lyney is aware of at least part of the Fatui plot, though Lynette, Freminet, and the other kids may not be. Lyney planted the magic show ticket on Liliane in Romaritime Harbor. A higher-up in Marcel's Sinthe organization is working with/for the Fatui, informing on Marcel and Navia. On orders from the Fatui, this individual gave Cowell orders to dissolve and abduct a girl at the magic show by tampering with the seat selector, and to tamper with the tank to hide the evidence; they also gave Vaughn orders to plant the water in Lyney's effects in an attempt to frame the Fatui for the serial disappearances. In this way, the Fatui could fully control the events of the magic show and first trial, and set up the stage for the second.

VI. Conclusions

How the events of the archon quest play out if it's all a Fatui plot

If we accept the claim that everything has been a Fatui a ploy and accept some of the weaker connections we've mentioned, we can take a look at the movement throughout the narrative so far and clearly lay out the progression of events.

A man in Caravan Ribat hears the Traveler is going to Fontaine and goes there first to inform his higher-ups.

The Traveler meets Lyney and Lynette in Romaritime Harbor, and Lyney demonstrates his sleight-of-hand abilities with Paimon balloon.

The three chase after Liliane the thief. Lyney catches up with her and plants the ticket to the magic show on her with the previously mentioned sleight-of-hand.

Lyney invites the Traveler to their magic show.

Lyney takes the Traveler to the House of the Hearth, and controls the timing of our next move by bringing up the rain.

Lyney sends the Traveler to Estelle to give her materials instead of Freminet. Tartaglia is also sent there to "coincidentally" meet us.

The Confrerie of Cabriere appears at Estelle's smithy, closely followed by Tartaglia. They fight.

Tartaglia talks to the Traveler and gives them his vision.

The Traveler attends the magic show on Lyney's request.

Cowell attempts to dissolve Liliane on orders from the (Fatui-aligned) higher-ups, and when it fails, attempts to physically abduct her.

Unexpectedly, Liliane shoves Cowell in the box.

The tank falls on the box and kills Cowell.

Lyney requests the Traveler to act as his defense attorney.

Cowell is accused and Lyney is no longer the main suspect.

Vaughn attempts to frame Lyney.

Liliane is brought in to testify to acquit Lyney - she is unaware of anything else going on.

Vaughn confesses to framing Lyney and the Fatui on orders of the (Fatui-aligned) higher-ups.

The first trial ends.

Marcel or the Fatui-aligned higher-up attempts to murder Navia, anticipating her interest in investigating the serial disappearances case.

Navia and the Traveler investigate Callas' death and talk to Marcel.

The Fatui accuse Tartaglia of being the culprit in the serial disappearances case.

Tartaglia makes a show of disagreeing with the charges leveled against him.

Navia and the Traveler accuse and convict Marcel.

Tartaglia makes a show, again, of disagreeing with the need to try him for the crime Marcel is convicted of.

The Oratrice declares Tartaglia guilty.

Tartaglia performs on the main stage of the opera house to deflect from the real motive of sending him to the Fortress, and to make the trial and his reactions seem authentic.

Looking at this all laid out, we can see that the Fatui have been scriptwriters for everything that has happened so far, and the Traveler's movements in Fontaine have the air of following stage directions given to them directly by the Fatui.

The biggest problem with this all being a Fatui plot that we have not yet mentioned is that it requires all the Fatui factions in Fontaine to be working in general harmony. The three kids' conversation we mentioned at the start seems to imply some discord, or at least different actions and motivations from the different Fatui factions. Tartaglia's voicelines and character stories also seem to imply that he doesn't get along well with the other Harbingers. However, we don't know if that's only on a personal level, and they are able and willing to put aside their differences for the Fatui's goals.

To that point, one of the most interesting parts of this theory is that even though everything fits nicely if it's all a setup, you can easily remove Fatui involvement from several parts of the events and still see how the Fatui plot unfolds. For example, should Marcel and the Confrerie be wholly unconnected to the Fatui, the Fatui are still able to take advantage of the situation provided to them by the events of the case to demonstrate the dissolving water, or to set up the second trial. If the first trial wasn't a setup, the second trial still could be - taking advantage of the new public interest in the disappearances case to accuse and send Tartaglia to the Fortress. Lyney and co. could be in on the plans, or pawns, and same for Tartaglia, and the situations would still shake out the same for the proposed Fatui interests, just with more risk involved in some cases. Other instances of this no-lose situation for the Fatui have been mentioned throughout this document, as well, so we can pick and choose which elements we think are more viable than others to be part of the Fatui scheme and still have the events of the archon quest make sense, even if the claim that everything was a scheme seems too fanciful.

TL;DR: Everything was a Fatui plot: the Fatui are the scriptwriters and directors of the performance that is the Fontaine archon quest. If you think those claims are too far-fetched, Fatui involvement can be removed piecemeal and the overall motivations and actions still hold up.

VII. Speculation on 4.1 and beyond

Based on the motivations and goals we've laid out for the Fatui in Fontaine, we can expect a few things from the rest of the Fontaine quests.

Firstly, we can expect to see Tartaglia carry out some sort of mission at the Fortress of Meropide. Based on the Fatui's interests, it's likely this mission will have to do with gaining information on (1) how the Oratrice works, (2) the abyss, (3) Hyperborea or other pre-Celestial civilizations, or (4) the Primordial Sea and its water. Following completion of his mission, he'll either escape the prison, or his sentence will be revoked, and he'll return to collect his vision from the Traveler.

The magic pockets also feel like a Chekov's gun. We don't know exactly what they do - what Lyney tells us at the beginning of the archon quest is very vague:

Lyney: As a magical item, these Magic Pockets have an astonishing capacity. I'm sure they will come in handy when people are moving their belongings.

What exactly this "astonishing capacity" is will likely be demonstrated, and may be key in however the prophecy ends up playing out.

Finally, in every nation so far besides Mondstadt, the presence of the Traveler and the events of the archon quests have led to a change in the status quo of how the country functions.

In Liyue, the archon quest was set up to have Liyue's government transition from archon-led to led by humans in concert with the Adepti.

In Inazuma, the aftereffects of the archon quest led to Inazuma opening its borders, and Ei coming out of seclusion and playing a greater role in governing.

In Sumeru, the sages were overthrown and Nahida was able to take a role in governing - and immediately began making changes to the status quo, especially in regards to the Akasha and the desert.

In Fontaine, we can expect that something about the status quo governance of the nation will change. As we've proposed that one goal of the Fatui is to destabilize the justice system and the people's faith in it, it's likely that this is the change we will see. The people of Fontaine will no longer rely on or believe in the Fontanian justice system - and it's possible Neuvillette and/or Furina will also lead these changes. Neuvillette is already investigating how the Oratrice works as a function of the second trial in the archon quest, and Furina seems to be shaken by the unexpected results.

We can only wait and see how this will play out.

Afterword:

If you read this whole behemoth: thank you. I love you. I can't wait for 4.1 to come out and obliterate this entire thing.

I wrote this whole thing feeling like