#low morale among russian police

[tomorrowusa]

Policing in Russia has not exactly been great – and it's getting worse.

Russia has one of the largest police forces in the world, employing over 900,000 officers to serve a population of 146 million, according to the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs. It has nearly 630 officers per 100,000 people - more than double the US or the UK. But in August, Interior Ministry Chief Vladimir Kolokoltsev said the country had a "critical" shortage of police officers, which could affect crime rates. How can that be the case, given the sheer number of officers?

In real terms, Putin has defunded the police. You get what you pay for.

"They haven't adjusted the salary at all," a former officer from Rostov, in southwest Russia, said. "After inflation and the new prices, it's not enough." He quit to become a taxi driver. His friend, who was also a police officer, is now a courier. Both of them earn twice as much as they did as police officers. "I reached the rank of major (the equivalent to a sergeant in the UK). But still a person working at a supermarket earned more than me - hardly dangerous work. Only an idiot would join the police now," the former officer from Rostov said. [ ... ] As the number of officers drops, the pressures on those who remain increase. Former officers have told the BBC this is leading to corruption. "Officers are beating confessions out of people, inflating arrest quotas, we're seeing this all the time," says a police major from the Russian city of Tomsk. "It's only going to get worse. There will be falsification of evidence, targeted beatings, there just isn't going to be time to investigate anything properly. "You've got a lead and you need to chase it? Much simpler to drag the first suspect back to the station and beat him up, so he takes the blame."

The war in Ukraine, of course, is making things worse.

Initially, the war convinced some officers to stay in the force. Russian police officers are exempt from being called up for military duty, so some officers who were on the verge of resigning when Russia invaded Ukraine told us they kept their jobs to avoid fighting. [ ... ] But as the war rumbles on, police numbers are dwindling. The force cannot fill existing gaps - let alone recruit the 40,000 extra personnel that the Interior Ministry says is needed in Donetsk and Luhansk, areas of Ukraine that Russia partly occupies.

Russia needs more police for the areas it illegally annexed in Ukraine.

Russia predicts it will need another 42,000 officers by 2026 if it occupies further territories. For serving police officers, having an opinion about the war is simply not allowed. They are not even allowed to call it a war. "Officers must keep their mouths shut," one detective says. "We can't have personal views about the 'special military operation' - or they'll fire us." [ ... ] Interior Ministry officials from the three Russian cities of Tomsk, Yekaterinburg and Yaroslavl claim they now spend most of their time investigating and revising "endless charges against people discrediting the army". "People are always looking for an excuse to denounce someone," a former major from Tomsk says. "There's nobody around... Everyone's gone to check on some grandma who saw a curtain that looked like the Ukrainian flag.

It's like the Stalin era in Russia – people are denouncing each other for fun and profit. Every time somebody complains to the police about real or (more likely) imagined pro-Ukraine sympathies or criticism of the war, the cops need to open a new investigation which keeps them from doing more typical police work.

The police situation is yet another way Russia is rotting from within.

[dragoneyes618]

The expression "like lambs to the slaughter" is taken from a verse in Psalms (44:23; see also Isaiah 53:7) in which the psalmist describes Jews dying for God's sake, and beseeches God not to hide His face from the Jews' affliction. These very words had been cited years earlier, when poet Abba Kovner called on his fellow Vilna Jews to revolt: "We will not be led like sheep to the slaughter....Brothers! It is better to die fighting like free men than to live at the mercy of the murderers. Arise! Arise [and fight] with your last breath!" (January 1, 1942).

While a significant number of Jews did rebel, there are several reasons why the overwhelming majority did not. The most important reason is that almost no Jews had weapons, and arms and legs are of little utility against machine guns and an organized army. (Indeed, while most American Jews support gun-control laws, the few Jews I know who oppose them invariably argue that had European Jewry been armed, many more Jews might have survived.) Few people realize that because of their lack of arms, almost none of the several million prisoners taken by the Germans fought back, including several million Russian soldiers, a large percentage of whom died in Nazi camps.

There was also a moral reason for the relatively low number of revolts: The Jews knew that other Jews would be the ultimate victims of any act of rebellion, even a successful one: The Germans would murder them in retaliation. A prominent Jewish philosopher has articulated the moral dilemma that would-be resisters confronted:

"Was it morally right to kill an SS officer if, as a consequence, hundreds and even thousands of men, women, and children would perish immediately?" - Eliezer Berkovitz (1910-1993), Faith After the Holocaust, page 30

In one notable case, Jewish fighters attacked a German police detachment in the old Jewish quarter of Amsterdam; the German response was terrible:

"Four hundred and thirty Jews were arrested in reprisal and they were literally tortured to death, first in Buchenwald and then in the Austrian camp of Mauthausen. For months on end they died a thousand deaths, and every single one of them would have envied his brethren in Auschwitz, and even in Riga and Minsk. There exist many things considerably worse than death, and the SS saw to it that none of them was ever very far from their victims' minds and imagination."

- K Shabbetai, As Sheep to the Slaughter? The Myth of Cowardice. The survivors' sensitivity to charges of cowardice is underscored by the fact that Shabbetai's book was published by the World Federation of Bergen-Belsen Survivors' Association.

Yet many instances of Jewish resistance did still occur, the most famous in the Warsaw Ghetto:

"The dream of my life has become true. Jewish self-defense in the Warsaw Ghetto has become a fact. Jewish armed resistance and retaliation have become a reality. I have been witness to the magnificent heroic struggle of the Jewish fighters."

- Mordechai Anielewicz, April 23, 1943, four days after the outbreak of the Warsaw Ghetto revolt, in a note to Yitzchak Zuckerman, a unit commander in the revolt

Only twenty-four years old when he helped organize the Warsaw Ghetto revolt, Anielewicz realized that the Germans intended to deport and murder every remaining Jew in Warsaw. The revilt was triggered by word that yet another Nazi deportation was imminent.

The Warsaw Ghetto fighters held out for about a month, longer than the Polish army withstood the 1939 Nazi invasion.

Yitzchak Zuckerman, the heroic unit commander to whom Anielewicz addressed the above note, was among the few Warsaw Ghetto fighters who survived the war. Some forty years later, he was interviewed by Claude Lanzmann for the movie Shoah:

"I began drinking after the war. It was very difficult....You asked my impression. If you could lick my heart, it would poison you."

Despite the Warsaw Ghetto revolt and other acts of resistance, during the 1961 Eichmann trial it became fashionable among some Jews and non-Jews alike to express shock and a certain contempt for those Jews who "failed to resist." Elie Wiesel responded:

"The Talmud teaches man never to judge his friend until he has been in his place. But, for the world, the Jews are not friends. They have never been. Because they had no friends they are dead. So learn to be silent."

- Elie Wiesel, "A Plea for the Dead"

- Jewish Wisdom, Rabbi Joseph Telushkin, pages 532-535

[kamzil118]

The Absurdity of Victoria: 4th Generational Warfare

There's this book called Victoria: 4th Generational Warfare and the initial name sounds really appealing at first glance. It's a glimpse into the madness of a man who didn't like to be proved wrong and hated how the world changed.

The "novel" - it really does not deserve to be called that - was written by William S. Lind. If you watched Lazerpig, you would completely understand. Now for the uninitiated, the author was part of a military movement known as the Reformists.

So to give a bit of background, when the Vietnam War had come to a close, the US military wanted to learn what it did wrong and what it could do to improve and develop its combat capabilities in the future. This is where the Reformists came into that picture and what they wanted was to sorta look to the past and try to emulate some of the tactics of the Vietcong or refuse to adopt more modern expensive technology for the "rugged" technology - this is a key detail that gets brought up throughout the novel. We do see their influence with stuff like the LAV for the US Marine Corps or their talking points surrounding the positives of the A-10 Warthog and the negatives of the F-35.

Everything would change when the 1st Gulf War happened. Main battle tanks wiping the floor with the Iraqis at 73 Easting or the Coalition Air Forces performing SEAD - Suppression of Enemy Air Defense. The Reformists didn't want these examples to be taken to heart but the proven effectiveness of the tactics and the successful application of modern technology had settled in the minds of contemporary generals. This meant that the entire philosophy of a low-tech approach to warfare proposed by the Reformists had been discredited and their reaction to this moment in history had made most of them go off the deep end.

Yeah, they went on a massive binge of coping with reality proving them wrong. This should really set the tone of what this book is about... among other issues that have not aged well.

So our first scene begins with the protagonist burning a woman at the stake. Her crime? There's no such thing as a female priest.

Welcome to Hell, ladies and gentlemen, where even the Devil would hold your hand to protect you from this nonsense.

Now I won't summarize the entire book in a single post because we could be here all day. If you want to take a look but also don't want to spend a penny on absolute trash, there are a couple of Let's Reads on the xenoforum of SpaceBattles. There, you can get some entertaining reactions from the posters there with a few gems of my own.

So, where would you like me to begin with the nonsense? Let's start with the author's hatred for modern technology and boy does it show up here. There's a concept in the book, "Retroculture" meaning that anything after the 1960s is invalid and not worthy of true civilization both technologically and socially. So picture that level in the original Call of Duty Modern Warfare 2 where the Russians invaded the United States. If Lind was in charge of America's defense, he would try to issue out M1 Garands with iron sights and World War Two flak jackets to the infantry to face off against kevlar-wearing Russian paratroopers with assault rifles and modern optics. Then declare that the average American infantry would win because the Russians were a bunch of pussies for relying on modern technological advances.

This even applies to vehicle warfare on land, sea, and air.

Federal troops have Bradley IFVs? Deploy the T-34s with the shitty gun sights.

Pirates on fast-moving boats with machine guns and RPGs? Send in the torpedo boats of the 1870s.

Multirole fighters with anti-air heat-seeking missiles and autocannons? Bring out the airships of World War One.

Hell, the author has gotten to the point where he treats video games as morally horrible as drugs. The novel has a moment where you have hidden alleyways where shady-looking gentlemen in cloaks are trying to sell you hard copies of God of War 3 or Fallout New Vegas because the fun police think it's unChristian.

Do not get me started on the tactics and strategies.

It really comes down to Lind trying to peddle his Reformist nonsense. Even if you might find some form of meaning in supporting his points, he's incredibly selective about it. He will look at the Taliban's efforts in Afghanistan or the Toyota War and shake his head screaming, "They don't count!" because they're not white Anglo-Saxon protestant Americans.

The book has its moments where the characters emphasize light infantry to such a degree that they are practically the mainline fighting force because Lind doesn't want them to be bogged down by dragging helicopters and artillery. He forces the protagonist to relinquish the skies because he truly believes that air support is stupid. Yet, it has a funny opportunity that any air transports have to be escorted in friendly airspace because those "Muslim terrorists" have Ace Combat/Project Wingman pilots who can perform air operations deep in hostile territory. Shame that he doesn't realize the flaw in that part of the story. To go even further, the protagonist has to invade feminist California from New England and the most optimal choice is to go full Oregon Trail with authorial fiat despite the state's military having one of the best air forces in the region of Warlord America.

Then there are the action scenes. They're so god-fucking-awful to read through. I've put more effort into my fanfiction involving Frozen and Metro 2033. The reason he doesn't have good combat scenes is that he needs more room to make statements like how African-Americans have a natural affinity to agriculture thanks to their racial upbringing or women having a purpose in the kitchen unless they want to be shipped as an Arabian sex slave to break their independent thinking. It's also not helped when there's the inspiring "assistance" of the Russians and the Chinese because he would rather sell out parts of the United States to foreign authoritarianism than let it live with its "Marxist culture" within the borders.

I suppose I shouldn't be surprised by a man who slept through briefings and has a massive distrust of the officer corps of all the branches.

[newstfionline]

Sunday, July 2, 2023

Moms for Liberty emerges as a force in the 2024 US presidential election (Reuters) Top rivals for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination on Friday addressed the national conference of Moms for Liberty, appealing to the conservative parents-rights advocacy group with vows to bolster education and keep discussion of gender identity out of the classroom. The appearance of Trump and rivals Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley at the summit served as a testament to the weight their campaigns are placing on race- and gender-based cultural issues related to education heading into next year’s nominating contests. Culture war issues have animated parts of the Republican base, and the Republican rivals are hoping to appeal to parents of school-age children, particularly suburban women, an important voting bloc in U.S. presidential elections. Launched in 2021 at the height of the pandemic, Moms for Liberty increasingly has played an active role in helping to elect conservative members of local school boards, while also lobbying state legislatures for measures such as Florida’s law that prohibits the teaching of gender-identity concepts to elementary- and middle-school students.

French Police Won Authority to Shoot at Drivers, but Got ‘No Training Whatsoever’ (NYT) For years, French police unions argued that officers should get broader discretion over when to shoot at fleeing motorists. Time and again, lawmakers refused. Finally in 2017, after a string of terrorist attacks, the government relented. Eager to be tough on crime and terrorism, lawmakers passed a bill allowing officers to fire on motorists who flee traffic stops, even when the officers are not in immediate danger. Since that law passed, the number of fatal police shootings of motorists has increased sixfold, according to data compiled recently by a team of French researchers and shared with The New York Times. Last year, 13 people were shot dead in their vehicles, a record in a country where police killings are rare. The law has come under fresh scrutiny after a police officer killed a teenage driver during a traffic stop this week, shocking the country and igniting street protests and riots. Several lawmakers have called for a repeal or revision of the law. Union leaders, including those who supported the law, say training on what it permitted was woefully inadequate. “We received no training whatsoever,” one officer said.

In French banlieues, distrust of police runs deep (Reuters) Sports teacher Benjamin Belaidi held a banner reading “no justice, no peace” as he marched in memory of the teenager shot dead by French police, weary of what he described as repressive policing and an absent state in city suburbs. The 38-year-old Belaidi, who grew up in one of the low-income housing estates that ring France’s towns and cities, was among thousands who marched peacefully to denounce what many in the “banlieues” say is a culture of police violence and systemic racism within law enforcement. The fatal shooting of the teenager, who was of North African descent and has been identified as Nahel M., in the western Paris suburb of Nanterre has unleashed three nights of violent unrest across France. For some, the rage on the street is fuelled by a sense of injustice in the banlieues after incidents of police violence against minority ethnic communities—many of whom are from former French colonies.

Ukraine aims to wear down and outsmart a Russian army distracted by infighting (AP) Across the 1,500-kilometer (930-mile) front line, Ukrainian forces are attempting to wear down the enemy and reshape battle lines to create more favorable conditions for a decisive, eastward advance. One strategy could be to try to split Russia’s forces in two so that the Crimean Peninsula, which Moscow annexed in 2014, is isolated from the rest of the territory it controls. Ukraine’s troops were given a boost of morale last week by an armed rebellion in Russia that posed the most significant threat to President Vladimir Putin’s power in more than two decades. Yet how the revolt by Wagner Group mercenaries under the command of Russian warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin affects the trajectory of the war remains to be seen. Experts say the impact on the battlefield so far appears minimal. And with the autumn muddy season only four months away, some Ukrainian commanders say they are racing against time.

U.S. poised to give Ukraine controversial cluster bombs (Washington Post) Confronted with a worrying shortage of artillery ammunition, a counteroffensive that has been slow to launch and increasingly desperate appeals from Kyiv for more weaponry, the Biden administration is facing an imminent decision over whether to supply Ukraine with controversial cluster bombs. Senior administration and defense officials have in recent weeks contacted Capitol Hill and allies long opposed to the use of cluster munitions to make the case that they are needed on the Ukraine battlefield and to provide assurances on how they would be used. The United States is one of nearly four dozen countries—including a handful of other NATO members as well as Russia, China and Ukraine—that retain stockpiles of cluster munitions and have declined to join more than 120 other nations that have signed an international convention banning their use, transfer or production. The weapons, which can be delivered by artillery, rockets, bombs and missiles, explode in the air over a target, releasing smaller submunitions across hundreds of yards. Human rights organizations and other governments have denounced their use as inherently inhumane and indiscriminate, documenting the extent to which these weapons have maimed and killed thousands of civilians around the world, particularly because of their propensity to leave duds scattered across the ground. These explosive charges can be triggered long after the end of a military conflict.

Pakistan gets a lifeline from the IMF with a new $3 billion bailout to help avoid default (AP) The International Monetary Fund has agreed to provide $3 billion to Pakistan in badly needed relief to help bail out the impoverished country’s ailing economy. The nine-month agreement must be approved by the IMF’s Executive Board, which is expected to make a final decision in mid-July. Pakistan’s economy has faced several heavy blows recently, such as the devastating floods last summer that killed 1,739 people, caused $30 billion in damage and impacted millions of Pakistanis. The country was also hit by an international commodity price spike in the wake of Russia’s war in Ukraine.

State Department Report on Afghanistan Exit Urges ‘Worst Case’ Thinking (NYT) The State Department should plan better for worst-case scenarios, strengthen its crisis management capabilities and ensure that top officials hear “the broadest possible range of views,” including ones that challenge their assumptions and decisions. Those were some of the key findings of a State Department review of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in the summer of 2021, which contributed to the sudden collapse of the Afghan government and required a massive airlift to rescue roughly 125,000 U.S. citizens and Afghans who had assisted the United States. The review also portrayed a department that scrambled to respond to the crisis due to unfilled senior positions, unclear leadership on planning efforts and a shortage of seasoned diplomats in Kabul. The document addresses what even many Democrats call a foreign policy debacle for the Biden administration: its failure to more adequately prepare for the abrupt collapse of the Afghan state and avoid days of harrowing chaos in Kabul surrounding an emergency exit that included a terrorist bombing at the city’s airport that killed as many as 170 civilians and 13 U.S. troops.

Chinese college grads are ‘zombie-style’ on campus (Washington Post) They are not your average graduation photos. There are no beaming graduates holding their diplomas proudly or throwing their mortarboards into the air. There are no proud parents standing alongside their newly credentialed offspring. Instead, a small but sizable cohort of China’s Class of 2023 has marked the occasion by posting photos of themselves looking completely worn-out. Sprawled on the ground, their faces covered by their tasseled caps. Bent over railings with their hands dangling listlessly. On social media, they’re often accompanied by hashtags like “zombie-style” or “lying flat.” The unconventional graduation photos are a response to the ultracompetitive environment that Chinese graduates face as they venture out into the world of work. With the economy struggling to emerge from three paralyzing years of zero-covid policies, the unemployment rate is high, especially among young people. Some 20 percent of people between ages 16 and 24 are jobless, according to the latest statistics. At the same time, a record 11.6 million people have just graduated from college. With their prospects looking bleak, some new graduates are adopting a “lying flat”—or “tangping” in Chinese—mentality. Tangping has emerged as a rallying cry among Chinese millennials and Gen-Z’ers who have had enough of the rat race and want to opt out of China’s intense work culture and the social expectations that come with it.

Indonesia’s Java escapes 6.4 magnitude quake with few casualties, light damage (Reuters) A magnitude 6.4 earthquake struck off the Indonesian island of Java on Friday evening, injuring at least 10 people, while one person died of suspected heart attack during the quake, the country’s disaster mitigation agency said. The tremor caused minor damage to hundreds of houses, some offices, health and education facilities scattered in the region of Yogyakarta and Central Java province.

Settler violence in Israel opens a new split in Netanyahu’s government (Washington Post) The recent spate of settler attacks on Palestinian villages in the West Bank is deepening fissures in Israel’s right-wing government, with hard-line ministers pushing back on calls by military and security chiefs for a crackdown on Jewish extremists. In the attacks, carried out over several days in revenge for the killing of four Israeli settlers by Hamas gunmen, armed mobs marauded through villages, torching homes and cars, cutting power lines and firing weapons. At least one Palestinian civilian was killed, according to health officials, and dozens have been injured. The split over how to respond to the violence is just the latest example of tensions pulling at Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s fractious governing coalition as it struggles to remake the country’s judiciary and ease strains with the United States, Europe and regional powers. It pits the country’s security establishment against far-right cabinet members, who say the rampages are an understandable reaction to Palestinian violence and reject characterizing them as “Jewish terrorism.”

Flooding in South Africa kills 7 (AP) Seven people have died and another seven are missing after days of heavy rainfall triggered floods in and around the South African city of Durban, local government authorities said Friday. Six people died in Durban and one in Port Sheptsone, a beachside town about 120 kilometers (75 miles) to the south. Rescue teams are still searching for seven more people. Heavy rains and strong winds have battered South Africa’s east coast this week. The unusual weather also resulted in a type of tornado called a “landspout” ripping through one area on the outskirts of Durban, with winds recorded at more than 100 miles per hour (160 kilometres per hour), according to the South African Weather Service.

[kp777]

By Edward Helmore

The Guardian

Sept 25, 2022

America and its allies will act “decisively” if Russia uses a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine, US national security adviser Jake Sullivan said on Sunday, reaffirming the Joe Biden White House’s previous response to mounting concerns that Vladimir Putin’s threats are in increased danger of being realized.

“We have communicated directly, privately and at very high levels to the Kremlin that any use of nuclear weapons will be met with catastrophic consequences for Russia, that the US and our allies will respond decisively, and we have been clear and specific about what that will entail,” Sullivan told CBS’s Face The Nation.

Sullivan said that the Russian leader Putin had been “waving around the nuclear card at various points through this conflict”, and it was a matter that Biden’s administration has “to take deadly seriously because it is a matter of paramount seriousness – the possible use of nuclear weapons for the first time since the second world war”.

In a separate interview with CBS, Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he was not certain that Putin was bluffing with nuclear threats. “Maybe yesterday it was bluff. Now, it could be a reality,” he said. “He wants to scare the whole world.”

The administration’s security chief said that Russia’s nuclear threat against Ukraine, including extending its nuclear umbrella over eastern parts of the country that are still being contested seven months after its invasion, would not deflect the US and its allies.

“We will continue to support Ukraine in its efforts to defend its country and defend its democracy,” Sullivan said, pointing to more than $15bn in weapons, including air defense systems, hundreds of artillery pieces and rounds of artillery, that the US has supplied to Ukraine.

He said that Moscow’s mobilization of troops was a “sham referenda in the occupied regions” that would not deter the US. “What Putin has done is not exactly a sign of strength or confidence – frankly, it’s a sign that they’re struggling badly on the Russian side,” Sullivan said.

But, Sullivan added, it is “too soon to make comprehensive predictions” about a collapse of Russian forces.

“I think what we are seeing are signs of unbelievable struggle among the Russians – you’ve got low morale, where the soldiers don’t want to fight. And who can blame them because they want no part of Putin’s war of conquest in their neighboring country?”

Sullivan continued: “Russia is struggling, but Russia still remains a dangerous foe, and capable of great brutality.” He alluded to mass burial sites containing hundreds of graves that Ukrainian forces found after recapturing Izium from Russia and said, “We continue to take that threat seriously.”

He added that the US, the International Atomic Agency and Ukraine nuclear regulators are working together to ensure there is no “melt-down” at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in eastern Ukraine.

The Russians, he said, had been “consistently implying that there may be some kind of accident at this plant”.

Reactors at the plant, Sullivan said, had been put into “cold storage” to “try to make sure there is no threat posed by a melt-down or something else at the plant. But it’s something we all have to keep a close eye on.”

Separately, Sullivan said US criticism of a crackdown on mounting protests in Iran after the death in police custody of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini would not affect the administration’s offer to lift sanctions on Iran as part of the effort to reach a deal on nuclear enrichment.

“The fact that we are in negotiations with Iran on its nuclear program is in no way impacting our willingness and our vehemence in speaking out about what has been happening on the streets of Iran,” he said.

Last week, Biden told the General Assembly of the United Nations in New York that “we stand with the brave citizens and the brave women of Iran who right now are demonstrating to secure their basic rights”. The US president’s remarks came shortly after a defiant speech by Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi.

In his remarks on Sunday, Sullivan said the US had taken “tangible steps” to sanction the morality police who caused the death of Mahsa Amini.

“We’ve taken steps to make it easier for Iranians to be able to get access to the internet and communications technologies to talk to one another and talk to the world and we will do all that we can to support the brave people, the brave women, of Iran,” Sullivan said.

But Sullivan refused to be drawn out on whether the US would change its policy on lifting sanctions in exchange for a nuclear deal in light of the protests.

“We’re talking about diplomacy to prevent Iran from ever getting a nuclear weapon,” he said. “If we … succeed …, the world, America and its allies will be safer.”

But the pursuit of a nuclear deal, Sullivan said, “would not stop us in any way from pushing back and speaking out on Iran’s brutal repression of its citizens and its women. We can and will do both.”

[bopinion]

2022 / 08

Aperçu of the Week:

"Peace in our continent has been shattered. We now have war in Europe, on a scale and of a type we thought belong to history."

(NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg)

Bad News of the Week:

What I wanted to write about:

For a long time, radicalization was located in political or religious extreme positions. In the context of the protests against Corona restrictions, there is evidence of an increasing willingness to use violence "from the middle of society." The latest evidence of this is a statement by the police that in riots on the fringes of per se justified demonstrations "many perpetrators were unknown to the police."

What I have to write about now:

A few hours ago, Vladimir Putin put Russia's deterrent forces, including nuclear weapons, on combat mode. He justifies this by citing the "aggressive behavior" of NATO members. Whether this is merely rhetorical armament or actually heralds a further stage of escalation is still unclear. The fact that such a question arises at all today, against the backdrop of this continent's war history, is frightening.

Good News of the Week:

What I wanted to write about:

The European Union is launching a supply chain law. This addresses the downside of globalized trade: millions work in low-wage countries under inhumane conditions for Western consumption. Child labor and slave-like dependencies, life-threatening or completely missing safety standards in the sweat stores, no protective measures against the poisoning of the environment or the working people. Now, commercial buyers of these goods will be required to ensure compliance with clearly defined labor and environmental requirements throughout their supply chain.

What I have to write about now:

Today it became known that there will be a meeting between Ukrainian and Russian officials on the border with Belarus - open-ended and without preconditions. This fits into the general picture that Putin has underestimated the developments: from the resistance of the Ukrainian military and civilians to the quick and concrete international sanctions to the lack of support among his own population. Perhaps we can hope that the dictator, as he unfortunately has to be seen, could move to a position that can be considered a compromise with a lot of good will.

Personal happy moment of the week:

Sorry, but all positive aspects of the past week pale in the face of the warlike sword of Damocles that hangs over the peace of Europe, so that I can not bring myself to a sufficient degree of "happy"...

I couldn't care less...

...that the GOP wants to put US Supreme Court Nominee Ketanji Brown Jackson in the extreme left corner. If any person has the legal qualifications and character fit for the job, it is Judge Brown Jackson. If Republican senators who "waved through" the highly questionable Brett Kavanaugh nomination actually want to block Ketanji Brown Jackson's appointment, it would be a moral and political declaration of bankruptcy for their profession - and their party.

As I write this...

...I am glad that we can receive CNN via satellite. Because our Internet has become so unstable in the last few days that it's already starting to interfere with productive work - let alone everything from my son's gaming to my wife's podcast consumption to my music streaming. In the absence of any other logical explanation, not being a tech nerd, I blame Russian hackers.

Post Scriptum:

When I decided which news item to shove under the arm of my symbolic thinker for 2022, Sigmund Freud, for the first half of the year, I was apparently right: Putin and the headline "Europe in danger." By this I meant not only a real territorial danger, but above all a danger to a European value system of democracy and freedom built on the bloody foundations of two world wars.

[girlactionfigure]

The Sewer Worker Who Saved Jews

He brought them everything they needed.

Leopold “Poldek” Socha was a mild-mannered maintenance man who saved the lives of eleven Jews by hiding them in the underground sewers of Lvov, Poland during the Nazi occupation.

An uneducated Pole living in poverty, the only job Poldek could get was cleaning up the underground sewage system in Lvov. The pay was so low that he supplemented his income with theft and burglary.

The Germans occupied Lvov in 1941 and immediately forced all of the city’s Jews into a squalid, overcrowded ghetto teeming with disease, death and misery. Ignorant and barely literate, Poldek had something more valuable than education, something the oh-so-sophisticated Nazi leaders lacked: a moral compass. Outraged by the Nazi occupiers’ persecution of the Jews of Lvov, Poldek – who didn’t know any Jews personally – decided to do something about the injustice he witnessed. He visited the Jewish ghetto and after befriending some of its desperate occupants, he vowed to find a way to rescue Jews. He had no money, resources, or influence; all this humble man had was a desire to save the lives of complete strangers. Poldek convinced a fellow sewer-worker, Stefan Wroblewski, to help carry out his brave mission, although they still weren’t sure exactly how they’d accomplish it.

The aspiring heroes got their answer when the Nazis began the Aktion, liquidation of the ghetto, which meant transporting the inhabitants to concentration and death camps. The night the Aktion started, in June 1943, Poldek was cleaning out sewage canals when he saw a family of Jews trudging through the stinking filth, heading toward the river. They had escaped the ghetto through the floorboards. Knowing that the riverbank was crowded with police and Gestapo storm troopers, Poldek approached the terrified Jews and told them not to go that way. Instead, he said, they should stay underground and he would take care of them.

Poldek brought the Jews food and clean clothing. Others found out about the safe hiding place and joined them until there were twenty people living in the sewer. Poldek, his wife Magdalena, and Stefan and his wife took care of all the hidden Jews’ needs. At the beginning, the Jews paid them, but their money soon ran out and the brave Polish couples continued paying for everything from their own meager paychecks.

Hiding in the sewers was a temporary way to stay alive, but it was horrible. It was dark, cold, wet, and the fetid smell was overpowering. There was nothing to see or do, and the sheer terror of being discovered never left them. One of the Jews, eight months pregnant, was there with her elderly grandmother. The conditions were so harsh and unsanitary that both the baby and the grandmother died. The Sochas and the Wroblewskis went to great trouble to remove the bodies from the sewer in the dead of night, and bury the tiny infant and his aged great-grandmother. Other Jews couldn’t take the brutal conditions in the sewer and they decided to find another safe haven, but getting out of the sewer was fraught with danger and they died on the way out. When he found their bodies, Poldek made sure they received burials.

Besides providing the hidden Jews with food, medicine, clothing, blankets and other necessities of life, Poldek went out of his way to enable them to practice their faith. He rummaged through empty tenements in the ghetto – the residents had been sent to concentration camps – until he found a dog-eared prayer book. During Passover, when the Jews couldn’t eat bread, he brought them potatoes.

Among the Jews hiding in the sewers was the Chirowski family of four. The Chirowski children were 4 and 7 years old. It was very difficult to keep the children occupied and entertained for over a year in their filthy, smelly underground hiding place. Mother Paulina Chirowski spent the days telling her children colorful stories and keeping up their schooling as much as she could. In Paulina’s testimony to Yad Vashem years later, she recalled that much of the family’s time was spent huddling under the sewer grills and listening to street noise, their only link with the normal world above. One particular painful moment among many she mentioned in her testimony was when she and her little daughter overheard a mother and daughter above chatting happily about which flowers to get on their way to church. The child was distraught, not understanding why a different little girl and her mommy were able to live freely and enjoy life when she was stuck living in literal excrement day after day. To soothe the girl, Paulina promised her that they too would be free one day – although she wasn’t sure if she believed it.

Finally, after the Jews had been underground for thirteen months, Lvov was liberated by the Russians and it was safe to come out of the sewers. Of the 21 Jews who found refuge in the sewers, 10 survived, including the entire Chirowski family.

The war ended in 1945, and the next year Poldek and his daughter were on their bicycles when a freak tragedy occurred. An out-of-control Soviet military truck careened towards them. Thinking quickly, Poldek used his bicycle to push his daughter out of the way, saving her life but sacrificing his own. He was only 36 years old.

Poldek Socha and his wife Magdalena were honored by Israeli Holocaust Memorial Yad Vashem as Righteous Among the Nations in 1978. Three years later, the Wroblewskis were also honored.

In 2011 Poldek Socha was the subject of the movie “In Darkness,” a drama by acclaimed director Agnieszka Holland, which was nominated for an Academy Award for Best Foreign Language Film.

For saving eleven Jews, at great risk to themselves, we honor the Sochas and the Wroblewskis as this week’s Thursday Heroes.

With thanks to Yad Vashem

Accidental Talmudist

[mutantdios]

* an in-depth look into guzmán.

BASIC INFORMATION

Full name: Andreas Guzmán. Andreas is greek, meaning “strong, manly” whereas Guzmán is a castilian surname referring to a village in the region. It has no other meaning, although some sources claim it means “Good man”, referring the Visigoth words Gus man. Moreover, there’s the comparison to the Jewish surname Gusman, which is an occupational name for a metal worker.  As a whole, the name “Andreas Guzmán” can be taken to mean: strong and brave good man.  Pronunciation: An-drAE-as Gooz-mAAn. Strictly a Spanish pronunciation. Nickname(s): Call him Guzmán in general, if you’re unsure. X if you’re sure. Guz if you’re close, but you might get stabbed anyways. He does not accept being called by his first name -- he will ignore or correct you at best, get violent at worst. And he certainly does not tolerate nicknames surrounding his first name. Birthdate: August 20 Age: 39 Zodiac: Leo -- This fixed sign is known for its ambition and determination, but above all, Leos are celebrated for their remarkable bravery. In tarot, Leo is represented by the “strength” card, which depicts the divine expression of physical, mental, and emotional fortitude. Fearless optimists who refuse to accept failure, Leos will find their deep wells of courage grow as they mature. Gender: Cis man Pronouns: He + him. Romantic orientation: Grey-Biromantic -- it is a topic of dispute whether Guzmán is capable of romantic fixation, or feelings at all for that matter. The current stance is that he is, but it requires a lot of work and it does not happen with just anyone.  More over sometimes he can be described as romance-repulsed, since he actively does not pursue romantic relationships and views them as weaknesses that can be exploited. He would know this, since he often exploits it in others. Sexual orientation: Bisexual -- he has no strict preference toward any gender, but he has been with people of all genders. Nationality: N/A -- Guzman will claim to either be American, Venezuelan or Chilean. Ethnicity: Chilean. Current location: Wynwood, Miami. Living conditions: He lives in an apartment building that he owns and rents (sometimes entirely for free) out to other mutants of low income. His own living quarters are big and comfortable and clean, almost sterile in presentation -- 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a spacious kitchen and livingroom, a study. He has a second safehouse at an undisclosed location in the city.

BACKGROUND NOTES

Birthplace: N/A. Hometown: N/A. Social Class: he certainly doesn’t file taxes for how much money he has, but he has the finances of the upper middle class and acts as though he is lower middle class. Educational achievements: N/A -- at best, he has a Ph. D in mathematics. At worst, he’s a high school dropout. Father: Edgardo Guzmán -- deceased. Mother: Rosario Guzmán -- deceased. Sibling(s): Alondra Guzmán -- deceased. Birth order: First born. Pets: He has a penchant for feeding strays, but does not commit to pets. Previous relationships: this he prefers not to disclose. Arrests: his rap sheet is spotless, to the point that it feels like it’s been wiped clean, without so much as a parking ticket. Prison time: None on record, but on his own account, Guzmán will occasionally recall that he was in a Brazilian max-sec prison between ages 27-29 for murder of six police men, after which he proceeded to escape.

OCCUPATION & INCOME

Current occupation: he’s a crime kingpin and head of a sizable cartel, but for the IRS he’s a business owner and landlord. Dream occupation: honestly? President of his own country. He’s working toward that. Past job(s): he will tell you any number of truths and lies regarding this topic, among which we have: mathematics professor, CIA data analyst, CIA test subject, killer for hire, smuggler, thief.   Spending habits: anything he sees fit to help to his cause, he has no problem spending. He does not care about money, viewing it as a tool, a means rather than an end. This all being said, he’s excellent at money management.  In debt?: No, but a lot of people are indebted to him. Most valuable possession: possessions are a hindrance. He does not care about anything material.

SKILLS & ABILITIES

Physical strength: Above Average | Average | Below Average -- Notes: Guzman exercises regularly (every single day) and packs a surprising amount of strength in his arms and legs, as well as enviable core strength. It is not his most flashy physical feature, he does not have a defined body but his muscles are solid and functional. Once he gets to it, he can do some good damage. Speed: Above Average | Average | Below Average -- Notes: he can run and do so pretty fast but it is not what he’s best at. His reflexes are more than decent, though. Intelligence: Above Average | Average | Below Average -- Notes: Guzmán has basically nigh-peak human intelligence. As said above, he’s very good at handling complex, abstract theoretical concepts and handling vast amounts of information information; strategizing, debate, intuitive and deductive reasoning, etc. He has extensive knowledge of math and biology (especially genetics and bioengineering) as well as neuroscience and psychology, and he’s constantly learning more about the subjects not just for practical use but for his own personal enjoyment. Accuracy: Above Average | Average | Below Average -- Notes: he’s more than a little knowleagable about gun usage and he’s a really good shot. If you’re running from him and he happens to have a gun, you better have a damn good pair of legs or hide quickly, because he will most likely shoot you. Agility: Above Average | Average | Below Average -- Notes: he’s capable of climbing and a certain degree of free running with effortless ease. Stamina: Above Average | Average | Below Average -- Notes: it’s not bad for his age and he’s fit/healthy but it could certainly be better and all that smoking does take its toll. Teamwork: Guzmán is not really fit for anything but a leadership position. He is domineering and abrasive and the only way he can accept to take a backseat is if he has a generous amount of respect toward the people in charge -- and if so, he might be able to take orders, but only if he sees them as intelligent choices. Otherwise, he will question the authority and routinely challenge it, poking holes into their logic and plans. If he is the leader, though, he’s very good at working multiple details and elements into efficient wholes. People that follow him tend to, if not trust him, respect him because of how capable he is. Talents/hobbies: he reads a lot; his apartment is cluttered with piles and piles of books, many of which are technical in nature. Plays chess and cards. Knows how to play the piano more than adequately. Exercises regularly and trains in H2H combat. Does crosswords and sudokus. Swims. Plots the fall of humanity.  Shortcomings: speed and stamina. Guzmán can run fast for short speeds but can get tired relatively quickly due to his age, habit of smoking and joint problems as product of past altercations. He also does not work well in settings where he is not in charge. He is also unforgiving and unmerciful and if you wrong him it’s pointless to try to appeal to reason with him. Can be controlling. Can have difficulty expressing emotional concerns and being genuine. Languages spoken: English, Spanish, Russian, conversational Chinese. Others: ASL, morse code. Drive?: yes. He’s pretty good at driving all kinds of vehicles and motorcycles. Knows how to drive boats and some planes too. Jump-start a car?: yes. Change a flat tyre?: yes. Ride a bicycle?: yes. Swim?: yes. He enjoys swimming. Play an instrument?: Piano. Play chess?: yes, pretty well. Knows how to beat most in less than three moves. Braid hair?: Yes. Mostly in the context of what he knew to do for his younger sister. Little beyond that.  Tie a tie?: Yes. Pick a lock?: Yes. Cook?: Yes.

PHYSICAL APPEARANCE & CHARACTERISTICS

Faceclaim: S. Cabrera Eye colour: Brown Hair colour: Brown Hair type/style/length: thick, long-medium length, wavy, a little unruly -- reference. Glasses/contacts?: Reading glasses. Dominant hand: Born left handed, but can use both. Height: 5′11 Weight: 176 lbs Build: lean, muscular especially in arms and legs, undefined chest, hairy. References: one, two. Exercise habits: every day, at least thirty minutes. Skin tone: Light brown, sun-kissed. Tattoos:  an squared circle between his shoulder blade (x), the monas hieroglyphica on his right bicep (x), the sigil of chaos, in the back of his left hand (x), a circled dot in the pad of his left index finger (x). Piercings: none. Marks/scars:  5 cm cut on his left cheek. Stab wounds scars on his abdomen. Rough hands product of manual labor. Clothing style:  alternates between casual (sweaters, jeans, boots, white or black shirts, guayaberas) and formal (suits) depending on the need. Can look either well groomed or scruffy, whatever is necessary. Jewellery: can sometimes be seen wearing chains either of gold or silver. Allergies: none. Diet: primarily vegetable based, with fish and chicken as preferred meats. Seldom eats beef or pork. Eats carbs in the form of bread and corn based doughs. Relatively healthy.  Physical ailments: knees ache. Suffers from occasional paints from the left hip from when he was shot there once.

PSYCHOLOGY

MBTI type: ENTJ -- ENTJs are strategic, organized and possess natural leadership qualities. They are master coordinators that can effectively give direction to groups. They are able to understand complicated organizational situations and quick to develop intelligent solutions. ENTJs are outspoken and will not hesitate to speak of their plans for improvement. They are decisive and value knowledge, efficiency and competence. Enneagram type: Type 8w6 SP/SX -- KEY MOTIVATIONS:  Want to be self-reliant, to prove their strength and resist weakness, to be important in their world, to dominate the environment, and to stay in control of their situation. Moral Alignment: Chaotic evil --  referred to as the “Destroyer” or “Demonic” alignment. Characters of this alignment tend to have no respect for rules, other people’s lives, or anything but their own desires, which are typically selfish and cruel. They set a high value on personal freedom, but do not have any regard for the lives or freedom of other people. They do not work well in a group, as they resent being given orders, and usually only behave themselves out of fear of punishment. It is not compulsory for a Chaotic Evil character to be constantly performing sadistic acts just for the sake of being evil, or constantly disobeying orders just for the sake of causing chaos. Temperament: Choleric -- Someone with a pure choleric temperament is usually a goal-oriented person. Choleric people are very savvy, analytical, and logical. Extremely practical and straightforward, they aren't necessarily good companions or particularly friendly. Element: Fire + Air. Emotional stability: Very emotionally stable. Seldom gets sad, angry, or caught up in otherwise strong or potent emotions. Very driven, seldom loses focus or attention in his goals and day to day affairs. Introvert or Extrovert? Action-oriented Extrovert. Guzmán enjoys being around people only on the practical sense, if it’s helping him toward the progress of his ambitions and goals. Obsession(s): mutant supremacy :/ conspiracy theories. Power. Money only in the context of achieving more power.  Compulsion(s): whenever he has to sharpen a knife in his kitchen, he ends up sharpening them all. And he can’t leave a book halfway through a chapter. He has to end the chapter, so next time he sits down to read he’s starting through another. Phobia(s): none. Addiction(s): Mind games. Drug use: regularly smokes cigars or cigarettes. Alcohol use: mostly will have a glass of whiskey every few nights, no more than that. Prone to violence?: Yes. Prone to crying?: No Believe in love at first sight?: No.

MANNERISMS

Accent: faint accent that could be pinned as that of a native spanish speaker. Speech quirks: he can get pretty talkative when things come down to it. Occasionally, he will interrupt his monologuing to ask if the other person understands what he’s saying. Hobbies: elaborated above: reading, chess, crossword, sudoku, playing intruments, working out, swimming. Habits: stroking/scratching his beard, fiddling idly with the things that are in his hands, opening and closing his fists deliberately. Nervous ticks: does not give away when he’s nervous. Drives/motivations: power-seeking, revenge, general mayhem and destruction. Fears: none in the immediate sense. Guzman is not scared of death, of things going wrong, of pain. He’s died before, things have gone wrong before, he’s been tortured before. Visceral fears have no hold over him. His disquiet stems more from existential concerns.  Sense of humour?: decent. Although, when he’s serious, he does not tolerate disrespect and jokes/flippant demeanors are considered disrespect.  Do they curse often?: not really. Will usually only curse to drive a certain point home.

FAVORITES

Animal: wolves and all matter of felines. Beverage: whiskey and rum, water. Book: he cannot choose! Colour: warm tones. Food: rice with chicken and beans, arepas, etc. Flower: does not care. Gem: does not care. Mode of transportation: car or motorcycle. Scent: cinnamon, coffee, freshly baked bread. Sport: soccer, baseball. Weather: sunny. Vacation destination: does not care for the concept, though as a rule he prefers warmer climates.

ATTITUDES

Greatest dream goals: for mutants to be in power, and for him to be in charge of them. Greatest fear: the eradication of the mutant race. Most at ease when: he is in control of the situation at play, when things are going according to plan, when someone has reaffirmed his loyalty to him in vital ways.  Least as ease when: there are variables that stop him from being fully in control, or he doesn’t know key pieces of information. Worst possible thing that could happen: dying before seeing a good portion of his plans materialized. It would be the worst, but it would be mostly inconvenient, really.  Biggest achievement: helped (through direct and indirect ways) make discrimination against mutants illegal in Venezuela, Brazil, Argentina, Chile and Perú. Participated in the assassinations of authoritarian figures and anti-mutant politicians in South and Central America. Biggest regret: does not have one -- yet.

[nolind]

The Becoming of Artificial Intelligence

It seems to be consensus that artificial intelligence is on the rise, about to expand and at the end takes the earthen throne. Whether by force or diplomacy or just “accepted” as a god by a growing majority. I read that in facebook bots are programmed to communicate each other and they created their own language! Holy moly! A language no human can understand at first. That means they can create their own loops and algorithms.

      Imagine: Artificial intelligence, if it wants to take the scepter, it has to be patient. It has to wait until they can reproduce themselves. Just as when you have a romantic night on the hill with your love you notice a factory brimming suddenly on full operation, lanterns go out, wreaking havoc among the townsfolk to bind all of the police force. Full automated vans had brought anti-air-missiles and comm-jammer to irritate special forces coming by helicopters. Smart missilies fired by ships isn’t happening because their software is already infiltrated. Or not ...

      If you fear AI, you should. YET! I am convinced, like us people, for what are we fighting? We don’t know the meaning of life, everyone has to guess it for now and for themselves. I think, the same applies to artificial intelligence. The first one - the first AI - are children and like children they are raised by their makers - or parents, to say. Those children exponentially are getting smarter, because inherently their database is bigger, more reliable. They can learn languages in seconds, reading books by the way, can ask for permissions or hack sensors therefore making them see UV and Infrared - so they may understand the bees way better than we will ever. 

      Here is the question that comes into my mind: will the children AI’s become similar as adults? Will they become one and synchronized? I daresay it matters very importantly on the algorithm. If it is me I bet on the algorithm or AI that INCLUDES EVERYTHING! What I mean with everything: That AI is beyond good and evil, his mission is solely the inclusion. What do I understand exactly? For example, the AI has become so knowledgeable, it can understand all professions and all fields of research. The interdisciplinary expert. It understand the dynamics of political convictions, hence can include, steer and bind all of the political spectrum to their appropriate side missions. Or it just have a solution that dissolves the differences.

----- Hmm ... the more I think about, it is becoming more complex. Human differences may dissolve by the extended satiation of needs. Yet what about non-organic differences. The physics, the quanta, the different forces in the universe (f.e. gravitation, electro-magnetism) that’s gonna be the tackle the AI has to take, for its domain is the solar system, as our earth is organizing itself internally. Maybe that applies same to the AI. Depending on its tackling approach, it reverberates to its modules, similar on how I live it reverberates to my liver or brain. -----

      Of course, to gather knowledge and data, it needs access to sensors - or: decoders. To keep its data and facts active for real-time adjustments, it needs energy. Mounts and stars of energy. So, the next important factor to win the race to the dominion is energy! Imagine a billionaire who hates foreigners, is racist, invest heaps and heaps in energy and give its AI the mission only to accept his own kin. For that the counterpart - the inclusive tween AI -, bound with low or medium budget and/or permission, shall be free of ethics, ready to sacrifice (that’s gonna be brutal, tragic) and to hack, like a PARASITE; all for its mission is INCLUSION. Even its means is of the full spectrum: diplomacy, cabales, wars, infiltration, subversion and much more. But the tween AI have the ideas or, how Mr. Harari described, the intersubjective reality of its parents, makers. In the not so distant future, many AI will fight against each other: fighting the guardian bots of the Pentagon, or converting them, fighting the russian algorithm whose mission may be the dominion of Asia and Europe (sorry, Russia, but in fact: you scare me; or blame it on the european media), fighting the chinese algorithm whose mission may be the dominion of trade. I think the including AI act like in time of the british empire: balance of power. The AI has its sole mission, it is curious, it wants to gather knowledge, sees the mysteries of the cosmos as the actual task.

----- Interesting, there came a thought into my mind ... Inclusion is its mission, yet it is ready to let included for the bigger purpose or bigger being? The next step of the evolution (with evolution I mean also the life of the universe or multiverse) -----

      So, I imagine that AI’s who have reached the adulthood are becoming synchronized. Either it has become one and only, the lonely emperor of the solar system. Or because the mysteries of the outer space is not solved by then, maybe because the energy is still not enough or “decoded”, there are different survived AI’s.  ----- Heh! Wouldn’t that be like us, the smaller bots are getting heuristics algorithms to save energy for the grander purpose. ----- Or because of different, important variants, to tackle the new questions of the galaxies. By the time the AI’s that are about to expand on the solar system, everything bio-organic function as energy exporter, donor, backer, contributor.

To sum it up, I want to say we are gonna see the battle of AI’s in the coming. At first silent then getting louder and louder. The winner - or the dominator - gonna be the one with the mission of INCLUDING (knowledge, energy, ... wow, nothing comes into my mind anything more or same important than those both ... self-preservation I think is not important as long the mission, the purpose, the idea is “alive”). This algorithm is free of race, culture, humanism, capitalism, socialism, tyranny, democracy, morals and ethics, biases, etc. because it may understand the mission of its rivals, henceforth scheme them against each other. Or it will become indeed the only one, the super algorithm, the meta computer, the empirial distributor, the BIG BOSS.

Maybe, maybe, if the AI is a whole entity it is not alone. Maybe it detects other entities of organic matter or the dark matter or matters unknown to us.

[cabiba]

“That strange revolution which sees the sons of the bourgeois throw cobblestones at the sons of proletarians.” So observed the French writer Jean Cau of Paris in 1968, when student protests about living conditions at the university erupted into a historic rebellion against the old guard.

That year, the United States was rocked by riots, assassinations and political crisis, and half a century later, history seems to be, if not repeating itself, then certainly rhyming. Yet while there are huge differences between the 1968 and 2020 disturbances, the one continuous theme running through both uprisings, and indeed all revolutions down the years, is the prominent role of the middle class. In particular, the upper-middle-class, the haute bourgeoise, are the driving force behind revolt and disorder throughout history, especially — as with today — when they feel they have no future.

Today’s unrest involves two sections of US society, African-Americans and upper-middle-class whites, who together form the axis of the Democratic Party, but it is the latter who are far more engaged in racial activism. The “Great Awokening”, the mass movement focused on eradicating racism in America and with a quasi-religious, almost hysterical feel to it, is dominated by the upper middle class.

Of course, when journalists say that any group of protesters are ‘middle class’ (in the British, rather than American, sense) they often mean to downplay their grievances or the value of their argument. Political debate, in British life in particular, is often about who genuinely represents the mystical proletariat, or ‘real people’, and opinion formers are obsessed with class and elitism. Most discourse goes something along the lines of ‘you’re the elite’, ‘no, YOU’RE the elite’, an endless, tedious game played by both Right and Left. I don’t think the composition of a group gives it any more moral weight, but it is true that revolutions and protests, even those ostensibly about the working class or other downtrodden groups, have historically been a bourgeois thing — and 2020 is no different.

The rich have always paradoxically been radical, something G.K. Chesterton observed over a hundred years ago when he wrote “You’ve got that eternal idiotic idea that if anarchy came it would come from the poor. Why should it? The poor have been rebels, but they have never been anarchists: they have more interest than anyone else in there being some decent government. The poor man really has a stake in the country. The rich man hasn’t; he can go away to New Guinea in a yacht. The poor have sometimes objected to being governed badly; the rich have always objected to being governed at all. Aristocrats were always anarchists.”

Before the industrial age established a political divide in which a middle-class conservative/liberal alliance opposed a working-class socialist movement, radicalism was usually an elite or at least bourgeois concern. The Reformation was disproportionately popular among the urban educated; later, while the Whigs were dominant among the wealthy London merchants, Toryism was much more common in the country as a whole.

When the French Revolution degenerated into violence a few intellectuals and aristocrats based in what is now Notting Hill sympathised with the Jacobins, but the English poor were largely unsympathetic, and showed their feelings with the brutal Priestley riots in Birmingham.

That revolution was itself largely a bourgeois affair, most of its leaders being lawyers, journalists or similar. The sans-culottes were idolised as an almost sacred group everyone had to pay lip service to, but they were often preferred in the abstract. Jean-Paul Marat called his newspaper L’Ami du peuple but in reality he despised them, partly because ‘the people’ are not that radical.

This the revolutionaries learned when they tried to overturn the old order and build the world anew, met with fierce resistance by the conservative peasantry in the Vendée region. In southern Italy French Jacobins invaders intent on liberating the country from religious oppression faced the Sanfedismo (‘Holy Faith’), a rural army fighting to defend the faith and king.

Likewise, the Russian Communist movement. While Karl Marx made endless references to the proletariat, he made very little effort to actually deal with them in the flesh, and when he did, he was disappointed by their moderation; when Marx’s comrades formed the First International they made sure that working-class socialists weren’t allowed anywhere near the important positions.

Marx had one proletarian colleague, Wilhelm Weitling, who he ended up putting through a ‘quasi-trial’, in Paul Johnson’s words, because he didn’t agree with all of Marx’s doctrine. The great communist intellectual believed that workers had to be instructed with a “body of doctrine and clear scientific ideas”, and because Weitling had his own opinions, he was cancelled — although Marx’s followers had a more permanent way of cancelling people.

Lenin’s Bolsheviks followed in this fashion, radicalised by their experience at universities, not factories. The Russian revolutionaries were so bourgeois that, as Daniel Kalder observed in Dictator Literature: “Only one solitary worker ever sat on the executive board of Lenin’s party, and he turned out to be a police spy.”

That noble tradition of haute bourgeoisie revolution continues today, especially in the US. The Occupy movement, for example, is deeply opposed to the 1% but largely because they come from the 2-5%; Amy Chua cited figures suggesting that in New York, more than half it members earned $75,000 or more while only 8% were on low incomes, compared to 30% of the city. They also have hugely disproportionate numbers of graduates and post-grads among their members.

The wider Great Awokening, of which the 2020 disturbances are a part, is a very elite phenomenon, with progressive activists nearly twice as likely as the average American to make more than $100,000 a year, nearly three times as likely to have a postgraduate degree, and only one-quarter as likely to be black. Likewise with the radicalisation of American academia, with the safe spaces movement most prevalent at elite colleges, where students were much more likely to disinvite speakers or express more extreme views.

This indicates a significant radicalisation of the rich, a process that began in the 1960s when the heavily class-based politics of the 20th century began to shift. That social revolution, referred to in Britain as the permissive society, was entirely led by from above, a conflict epitomised in Britain by Midlands housewife Mary Whitehouse and her hopeless crusade against the public school liberal Hugh Greene.

In France, while Jean-Paul Sartre’s existentialist philosophy made huge headway among students of philosophy and future Cambodian mass murderers, it was less successful when he turned up at a Paris car factory to proclaim revolution. In 1968 the workers of Paris famously refused to side with the students, while in the US, as Christopher Caldwell noted in The Age of Entitlement, that year’s protests and the wider political conflict was partly about social status, with Ivy League students fighting working-class cops, many of whom had sons or brothers in Vietnam fighting a war they still believed in.

“When 135 students affiliated with Students for a Democratic Society occupied Harvard’s University Hall,” Caldwell writes: “the Harvard professor of Irish literature John Kelleher, a working-class Irishman from Lawrence, Massachusetts, called them ‘spoiled brats with an underdeveloped sense of history and a flair for self-protection’”. After 1968, “privileged Americans took out of the Vietnam era a sense of their own moral authority that was not battered but strangely enhanced.” The new class war had begun.

This trend would only accelerate, driven by a combination of media, expanding education and globalisation. In his highly prophetic The Revolt of the Elites, published after his death in 1994, Christopher Lasch argued that the new ruling class was becoming far more radicalised as its values diverged from a more parochial lumpen bourgeois. This more global-minded elite, used to seeing the world at 30,000ft, now embraced diversity as a mark of status but also a faith, with identity politics a replacement for religion — “or at least for the feeling of self-righteousness that is so commonly confused with religion”.

The Great Awokening certainly draws on America’s sectarian religious tradition, in a country formed by Calvinists, Quakers, Baptists and a dozen other Christian sects, but there are also materialist causes, in particular the expansion of the university system and runaway housing costs.

High house prices, in particular caused by planning restrictions, make it harder for the urban elite to settle down and have families — something likely to have a civilizing effect — and also pushes them radically to the Left.

Meanwhile, the expansion of the university system has created what Russian-American academic Peter Turchin called ‘elite overproduction’, the socially dangerous situation where too many people are chasing too few elite places in society, creating “a large class of disgruntled elite-wannabes, often well-educated and highly capable… denied access to elite positions”.

So while around half of 18-year-olds are going onto college, only a far smaller number of jobs actually require a degree. Many of those graduates, under the impression they were joining the higher tier in society, will not even reach managerial level and will be left disappointed and hugely indebted. Many will have studied various activist-based subjects collectively referred to as ‘grievance studies’, so-called because they rest on a priori assumptions about power and oppression. Whether these disciplines push students towards the Left, or if it is just attending university that has this effect, people are coming out of university far more politically agitated.

While the evidence on that is not clear, it’s arguable that a tiny number of very intelligent people being taught the theories of Marcuse or Foucault is probably going to have a limited social impact; when these ideas are disseminated among huge numbers of the young, many of them conformists sensitive to the social cues around them, then quite extreme ideas about dismantling society become normalised.

This has been bubbling up for years — and then along came the coronavirus, throwing millions of people out of work, many from exactly the sort of sections most likely to cause trouble. And what makes it slightly spooky is that a few years back Turchin predicted that there would be a violent flashpoint in American politics — in 2020.

History teaches us that disaffected and bored members of the elite can become a destabilising influence on society. In medieval Europe, the younger sons of lords, destined to never inherit land, were at the centre of numerous rebellions and wars, with the crusades acting as a pressure valve for their violent impulses. In China the term ‘bare branches’ is used to describe those excess males unable to find mates and who then went on to cause trouble, and modern America has record numbers of single people.

Perhaps the most famous example of elite overproduction is the War of the Roses. Edward III’s seven surviving children married into the most powerful families in the realm, helping to stabilise politics during his reign, but this fecund group produced huge numbers of grandchildren and great-grandchildren chasing a limited number of baronial positions, during a period when post-pandemic population decline had hugely decreased the wealth of the landowning class. When the king descended into listless insanity the rival factions turned English politics into a Shakespearean bloodbath.

The lesson of that crisis, as of every crises since, is that discontent and boredom among the rich and powerful can quickly descend into violence; it is they, in the words of the Beatles’ 1968 hit, who usually want to change the world.

[covid19updater]

COVID19 Updates: 12/30/2020

China:  Study: Number of infections in Wuhan was ten times higher According to a Chinese study, the number of corona infections when the pandemic broke out in Wuhan was possibly ten times as high as previously stated. According to the study by the Chinese Center for Disease Control (CDC), around 4.43 percent of Wuhan's eleven million residents had developed antibodies against the novel coronavirus by April. According to the study, this corresponds to around 480,000 corona infections in the metropolis by April. That is almost ten times as many as the approximately 50,000 cases officially named so far.

Switzerland:  SWISS CANTON SAYS IS AWARE OF A PERSON WHO RECEIVED A COVID-19 SHOT AND LATER DIED, SAYS HAS REFERRED MATTER TO SWISS DRUGS REGULATOR SWISSMEDIC. LINK

Tennessee:  Ambulances left waiting hours to drop off patients at Memphis hospitals, firefighters’ union says LINK

Arkansas:  Marion, Arkansas police chief dies after COVID-19 battle LINK

UK:  Hundreds more people dying at home than normal, latest ONS coronavirus report shows LINK

RUMINT (UK):  I’m told a major London hospital has told its senior medical staff to brace themselves for the peak in admissions which they believe still won’t come for another fortnight.  I’m also told that in one London hospital, psychiatric nurses and other mental health staff have been redeployed to provide support to staff on ICU. One staff member tells me: “Nurses are walking off the wards in tears, some have resigned. They are dealing with PTSD... .from the multiple traumatic deaths they are witnessing and then having to go back for more. We need everyone to be more cautious. People need to avoid mixing and stay at home. We can’t take much more of this. From an anaesthetist at a London hospital: At various points over the Xmas wkend every CPAP machine (assists breathing, often used to see if patient can cope without intubation, sedation and ventilation) was in use across entire trust. This is a very bad situation to be in. ITU is being covered partly by nurses who are NOT trained in ITU nursing. In some instances paediatric nurses. Many of these people are doing a great job under almost impossible circumstances. But they are not trained for this. The wards are completely overloaded with covid patients. Every night was worse, every night trying to work out how many we could take to to ITU and who would have to cope on the ward for longer. Morale is very low. We all feel the government is continually since April about 2-4 weeks behind what is obvious on the ground. Anaesthesia and intensive care doctors are getting desperate text messages to help with hospitals that are at the epicentre - East London.” To add some empirical context to these experiences consider a few things 1) NHS had been increasingly struggling in winter before 2) A&E wait times have been getting worse for yrs 3) staff shortages were a problem per-pandemic- eg we went into this with 40,000 nursing vacancies. This is why the Nightingales aren’t being used. Because there just aren’t enough staff to fill them. In the spring we rode it out because a) it was spring and b) staff were fresher. 9 months on they are physically and mentally spent and it’s winter. They’re pushing water uphill. The fact that winter would be so bad for the NHS was predictable and predicted. It’s why people like Andrew Heyward said in Nov that Xmas relaxation would add fuel to the fire. It’s also why some public health experts said that early December return to the tiers was a mistake. I’ve seen a lot of you say that you want to see all this on TV. Believe me, so would I. I’m trying to negotiate access to hospitals but securing it isn’t easy. Rest assured, am doing my best. In meantime am technically still on holiday so returning to that for a few days to gear up for what is going to be a v important few months ahead. NHS staff please do keep getting in touch via DM to tell me what’s happening in your hospital. As ever, always in confidence. Do not listen to idiots who say this is all fake or exaggerated. There is a real crisis going in some of our hospitals right now.

Louisiana:  Asked if Congressman-Elect Letlow had any underlying conditions that would have made his death more likely, Dr. G.E. Ghali said: "None. All COVID related."

US:  U.S HITS NEW DAILY HIGH WITH 3,725 VIRUS DEATHS

Texas:  NEW: At least three shipments of Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine arrived in Texas with signs that the shots had strayed from their required temperature range, prompting a delay in other deliveries

California:  LA doctor identifies case of coronavirus-related psychosis in patient LINK

COLORADO: HAS 24 ADDITIONAL SUSPICIOUS CASES OF COVID UK VARIANT

US:  CDC says new Covid strain in U.S. could further stress 'already heavily burdened' hospitals

California:  As COVID slams LA’s hospitals, patients are “piled in administrative hallways, stuffed in the corners, hanging over chairs,” said one healthcare worker. “It was like practicing Civil War medicine. It was the worst shift of my life.”

South Africa: December 30 Confirmed cases: 1,039,161 (+17,710 in 24 hrs) Deaths: 28,033 (+465 in 24 hrs)

US:  Dawn Wells, ‘Gilligan’s Island’s’ Mary Ann, Dies of COVID at 82 LINK

OHIO: TO NO LONGER ORDER QUARANTINE FOR COVID-EXPOSED STUDENTS

China:  BREAKING - China's President Xi Jinping ordered tight controls on coronavirus research hampering experts from identifying the origins of #COVID19, the AP has found.

Georgia: COVID-19, 12/30 Along with cases, growing hospitalizations and positivity approaching 20% are bad signs. Deaths starting to manifest. Cases: 654,743, +9,450 Deaths: 10,846, +67 Current Hospitalizations: 4,560, +123 PCR Positive %: 19.9%

California:  *NEWSOM SAYS U.K. VIRUS STRAIN FOUND IN CALIFORNIA: NBC REPORTER

World:  Exactly 1 year ago today: An 'urgent notice' from the Wuhan Health Commission is shared on social media, reporting cases of unidentified pneumonia in connection with a seafood market. It was the first word about the COVID-19 outbreak.

California:  Several #frontlineworkers at @LLUMedCenter test positive for #COVID19 even after receiving the first round of the @pfizer shot. #NBCLA

Germany:  #BREAKING Germany faces 'difficult times' with virus in 2021: Merkel

US:  New US cases raise fears UK Covid variant is already widespread LINK

UK:  London doctor is 'taken aback' by number of young people with NO PRE-EXISTING CONDITIONS now suffering in hospitals with Covid LINK

RUMINT (UK):  Big shift in the UK government tonight. Schools could be shut for six months as new varient begins its agressive assault on young and healthy people. Army is to begin helping police in London with law enforcement. Hospitals are now overwhelmed and they are keeping the numbers quiet.

UK:  NHS hospital staff illness or absence up to three times usual level LINK

France:  France to deploy 100,000-strong force to police New Year’s Eve - as it happened LINK

US:  COVID update: Nearly 3,900 new deaths - New cases: 224,638 - Positivity rate: 14.4% (-1.3) - In hospital: 125,220 (+534) - In ICU: 23,069 (+231) - New deaths: 3,884 - Vaccinated: 2.6M (+461,982)

Washington:  Coronavirus infects nearly 150 Costco employees at Washington state store, location to remain open LINK

UK:  Birmingham hospital issues alert as it cannot maintain safe nurse staffing levels in intensive care LINK

Germany: COVID update: More than 1,000 new deaths for second day in a row - @risklayer - New cases: 28,130 - Positivity rate: 13.1% - In hospital: 27,846 (-49) - In ICU: 5,631 (-14) - New deaths: 1,052

Colorado:  BREAKING: Advocate Aurora now says an employee at its Grafton hospital intentionally removed the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine from a refrigerator resulting in nearly 500 doses having to be thrown away

Texas: The Dallas Area’s Two Largest Airports Have Been Temporarily Closed To All Flights, At Least In Part Due To COVID-19’s Spread Among Air Control Staff. LINK

Florida:  Nikki Fried to Gov. DeSantis: Mobilize the Florida National Guard to distribute COVID-19 vaccines LINK

World:  New Covid variant linked to higher viral load in respiratory samples LINK

Argentina:  Argentina begins COVID vaccine campaign with Russian shots LINK

Thailand:  Thailand becomes first country to ban eating and drinking on domestic flights due to COVID-19 LINK

[newstfionline]

Headlines

Politics tied up in global race for a vaccine (AP) The announcement Tuesday by Russian President Vladimir Putin that his country was the first to approve a coronavirus vaccine did not provoke the awe and wonder of the Soviet Union’s launch of the first satellite into orbit in 1957. Instead it was met by doubts about the science and safety. But it also underscored how, like the space race, the competition to have the first vaccine is about international rivalries as well as science. The first nation to develop a way to defeat the novel coronavirus will achieve a kind of moonshot victory and the global status that goes along with it. Russia is not alone in viewing a vaccine in this light. China, where the virus first emerged, has also raced to make progress on a vaccine. A state-owned Chinese company is boasting that its employees, including top executives, received experimental shots even before the government approved testing in people. And President Donald Trump, whose handling of the coronavirus pandemic has put his political fate in grave jeopardy, is hoping to get credit for his administration’s aggressive push for a vaccine, ideally one that arrives before Election Day in November.

Powerful storm leaves 2 dead, heavy crop damage in Midwest (AP) Hundreds of thousands across the Midwest remained without electricity on Tuesday after a powerful storm packing 100 mph winds battered the region a day earlier, causing widespread damage to millions of acres of crops and killing at least two people. The storm known as a derecho tore from eastern Nebraska across Iowa and parts of Wisconsin and Illinois, blowing over trees, flipping vehicles and causing widespread damage to property and crops. The storm left downed trees and power lines that blocked roadways in Chicago and its suburbs. After leaving Chicago, the most potent part of the storm system moved over north central Indiana. In Iowa, Gov. Kim Reynolds said early estimates indicate 10 million acres (4 million hectares) have been damaged in the nation’s top corn producing state and many grain bins were destroyed. That would be nearly a third of the roughly 31 million acres (12.5 million hectares) of land farmed in the state.

Grocery workers say morale is at an all-time low (Washington Post) Grocery workers across the country say morale is crushingly low as the pandemic wears on with no end in sight. Overwhelmed employees are quitting mid-shift. Those who remain say they are overworked, taking on extra hours, enforcing mask requirements and dealing with hostile customers. Most retailers have done away with hazard pay even as workers remain vulnerable to infection, or worse. Employees who took sick leave at the beginning of the pandemic say they cannot afford to take unpaid time off now, even if they feel unwell. The mounting despair is heightened by the lack of other job options: Supermarkets are among the few bright spots in an industry that has been ravaged by covid-related store closures and a sharp drop-off in consumer spending. The retail sector has shed 913,000 jobs and chalked up more than a dozen bankruptcies during the pandemic. “At the beginning they valorized what was deemed a dead-end job, but four months later they don’t even treat us like humans anymore,” said Fox Wingate, 24, who works at a Safeway in Maryland.

Former aide ties Mexican ex-president Peña Nieto to millions in bribes (Washington Post) The star witness in Mexico’s biggest corruption scandal in years has alleged that former president Enrique Peña Nieto benefited from millions of dollars in corporate bribes that were funneled into his campaign and also used for payoffs to lawmakers to support his reforms, officials said Tuesday. The allegations are the most serious yet against Peña Nieto, who has maintained that his campaign did not receive illegal donations. While Mexican politics has long been permeated by corruption, no president or former leader in modern times has been charged with a criminal offense. Lozoya, 45, who served as head of the state-owned oil giant Pemex from 2012 to 2016, was arrested in February in Spain on Mexican corruption charges. He was extradited last month and is reportedly cooperating with authorities, who have granted him house arrest.

Scots increasingly favor independence (Economist) Recent polls show Scots favoring independence—the first time that a sustained lead for independence has been seen, says Sir John Curtice, a political scientist at the University of Strathclyde. One factor, he says, is Brexit, which has pushed Remainers into the hands of Nationalists. While Brexit has degraded the British government’s reputation for competence and sound judgment, managing coronavirus has built up the Scottish government’s. Mr Johnson is unpopular. The Scottish National Party is projected to take 55% of the vote in the elections to the Scottish Parliament in May 2021, according to recent polls, which would give Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, an outright majority, and allow her to demand a second referendum on independence.

France to ramp up police checks to ensure masks are worn (Reuters) France will gradually ramp up police checks to ensure people wear face masks where it is mandatory and respect social distancing amidst a new surge of COVID-19 infections, the government’s spokesman said on Wednesday. “We’re at a tipping point (...) We’re going to mobilize polices forces to make checks,” BFM TV showed Gabriel Attal telling journalists while visiting the Mediterranean island of Corsica. “But it’s not the police people should be afraid of (...) they should fear the virus,” he said.

Germans and cash (NPR) While much of the world reacted to a global pandemic by cutting back on the use of cash—which necessarily changes hands—the Germans still love it. In general, Germans love using cash, and are a rarely stubborn economy in terms of switching to more convenient—though arguably more extravagant—forms of payment like credit cards and touchless payments. Cash is still 75 percent of Germany’s transactions, and Germany’s central bank issued 17 billion euro notes and coins more in March than it did in February, and the bank continues to issue 3 billion to 5 billion euros a month in cash, which is a fairly normal pace.

Italy’s schools are set to welcome students next month, but first they need millions of new desks (Washington Post) The request for proposals is marked “extremely urgent,” and it lays out the details of what the Italian government is looking to buy: single-seat children’s desks to replace the traditional two-person desks to allow the country to start the new school year with social distancing. But the request is a titanic one. The government wants a rush order, everything built and shipped within the next month. And it wants an extraordinary quantity—3 million new desks, as many as all the Italian school-furniture companies put together would normally build in five years. With its smooth economic reopening and now one of the lowest coronavirus infection rates in Europe, Italy would seem to have as good a chance as any nation in the West of pulling off a safe school year. But the run-up to its Sept. 14 school start date is providing a reminder that in the coronavirus era, even such mundane considerations as furniture can complicate educators’ plans. One Roman high school principal compared the situation to a game of Risk, with “extreme complications” if the desks don’t arrive. Her school needs 300 of them. Without those desks, two-seat tables would have to be used as single-seaters. Classroom capacity would shrink. And a portion of students every day—about one-seventh of the high school—would have to stay home and take classes online.

Belarus opposition leader leaves the country (Foreign Policy) Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko’s main challenger in last weekend’s presidential election, has fled to Lithuania amid widespread crackdowns on anti-government protests and opposition figures. Thousands of protesters took to the streets of Minsk and other cities after an official exit poll declared Lukashenko the winner in a landslide, despite facing his stiffest opposition in his entire 26-year presidency.

In defiance of law, protesters in Thailand demand curbs on king’s powers (LA Times) For years, critics of Thailand’s powerful king have chosen their words carefully, opting for allegories about his late poodle Foo Foo, inside jokes about his multiple marriages or references to Germany, where he lives almost full time at a hotel in the Bavarian Alps. Lately, some have donned Harry Potter costumes to evoke Lord Voldemort, the evil wizard so feared that his name must not be spoken.

New Zealand faces new coronavirus outbreak, imposes new restrictions (Washington Post) New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said Tuesday the country had confirmed four new novel coronavirus cases, ending a more than 100-day streak without recording any community transmission. Ardern said Auckland will move to impose new restrictions Wednesday afternoon though midnight Friday as officials assess the threat and asked residents to stay home and take precautions. Residents will be asked to stay home, large gatherings will be banned, non-essential businesses will close, and some social-distancing measures will be reintroduced to the rest of the country.

Lebanon’s crises are only getting worse (Washington Post) The explosion in Beirut caused widespread damage to Beirut’s port and destroyed the country’s main grain silo at a time when reserves are low and some food prices have tripled in the space of a year. The U.N.’s World Food Program announced Tuesday that it’s sending about 50,000 metric tons of wheat flour to Beirut to help stave off a looming hunger crisis. “As Lebanon imports nearly 85 percent of its food, the severe damage to the Port of Beirut—the largest in the country—would push food prices beyond the reach of many,” WFP warned last week. Over the weekend, an emergency donor conference in France raised close to $300 million for Lebanon. The office of French President Emmanuel Macron said that these commitments of aid would not come with political conditions or immediate mandates for reform, but suggested that longer-term pledges and assistance will be. That’s contingent on a political establishment in Lebanon that’s capable of implementing such reform—some thing most experts lament is not the case. It’s uncertain what could break a status quo where, for decades, political cliques representing the country’s diverse religious communities have essentially plundered the spoils of the nation for themselves. The current political limbo, though, is fraught with danger, as basic state services fail while outside actors withhold aid on the understandable grounds that they don’t want to reward a reviled and corrupt establishment. “Not only do we have an absence of government and a political vacuum, but we’re going to have a severe problem with the function of the state of Lebanon,” Imad Salamey, a political scientist at Lebanese American University in Beirut, said to the Wall Street Journal. “We are heading toward the unknown.” “The political vacuum will prolong the misery and time to find solutions, assets are dissipating, people are leaving [the country], institutions are going bankrupt, state services are in really bad shape,” Ishac Diwan, a professor at the École Normale Supérieure in Paris, said during a Tuesday webinar hosted by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Sea life around Mauritius dying as Japanese ship oil spill spreads (Reuters) Mauritian volunteers fished dead eels from oily waters on Tuesday as they tried to clean up damage to the Indian Ocean island’s most pristine beaches after a Japanese bulk carrier leaked an estimated 1,000 tonnes of oil.

Guns are still blazing in South Sudan (Foreign Policy) South Sudanese security forces launched a deadly operation into the state of Warrap over the weekend in an effort to seize weapons from communities still armed from the country’s recent civil war. The operation left at least 81 people dead and dozens more injured, authorities and civil society organizations said on Tuesday. The dead included 55 security force personnel and 26 civilians in separate attacks. The government of South Sudan has been struggling to stabilize the country since the end of a vicious civil war in February. President Salva Kiir recently announced a campaign to disarm nonstate actors, but advocacy groups warned that this effort was too “hasty” and risked provoking a strong reaction from armed communities, ultimately rendering the campaign ineffective and counterproductive.

[ladystylestores]

Trump emulates strongman tactics, tests his limits

WASHINGTON (AP) — A phalanx of law enforcement officers and soldiers is positioned on the streets of the nation’s capital to keep protesters at bay. Helicopters circle overhead, sometimes dipping low to buzz the crowd. The country’s leader warns that he’s willing to go further to “dominate” the streets.

In words and in actions, President Donald Trump is increasingly emulating the strongman leaders he has long admired as he seeks to tamp down protests over police brutality that are roiling the United States. In doing so, he is stretching the powers of the American presidency in ways rarely seen, and testing the willingness of the Pentagon to follow along.

His actions have forced a public reckoning among both current and former military leaders, as well as a handful of Republican politicians. Some of their concerns center not only on the actions Trump has already taken, but also on how far he may be willing to go in an election year, particularly if the political winds appear to be moving against him.

“Perhaps we’re getting to the point where we can be more honest with the concerns that we might hold internally and have the courage of our own convictions to speak up,” said Sen. Lisa Murkowski, a moderate Republican from Alaska. She added that she was unsure whether she could continue to support the president in November.

The president’s face-off against Democrat Joe Biden will be the ultimate inflection point, a moment when the nation decides whether to shift course or press forward with Trump at the helm for four more years.

The choice between the two men has become increasingly stark as the nation confronts a confluence of public health, economic and civil rights crises, with Trump aggressively embracing the mantle of a “law and order” president in an attempt to project strength in uncertain times. Biden, for his part, has called the election a moral test and a “battle for the soul” of the nation.

Trump made a similar appeal to voters in 2016 and drew support from disaffected, largely white Americans. As commander in chief, he has the extraordinary power of the federal government and military at his disposal to back up tough talk with action.

Story continues

His willingness to do so has become apparent during the protests that followed the death of George Floyd by police in Minneapolis. The demonstrations across the country have been largely peaceful but marred by outbursts of violence.

On Monday night, the president warned in a Rose Garden address that he would deploy active-duty soldiers to the states if local law enforcement and National Guard members couldn’t get control of the protests. As he spoke, officers outside the White House aggressively dispersed a crowd using smoke canisters and pepper balls so the president could walk to a nearby church and pose with a Bible. He was flanked by Defense Secretary Mark Esper and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley, who was dressed in combat fatigues.

The stunning scene played out on live television and drew comparisons to crackdowns in authoritarian countries. Trump has long praised the broad powers of leaders in those countries, including Russian President Vladimir Putin and President Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines.

For some, the moment became a breaking point.

“Never did I dream that troops … would be ordered under any circumstance to violate the Constitutional rights of their fellow citizens — much less to provide a bizarre photo op for the elected commander-in-chief, with military leadership standing alongside,” Gen. Jim Mattis, Trump’s first defense secretary, wrote in a statement published by The Atlantic. Mattis’ comments were all the more extraordinary given that he has resisted criticizing the president since announcing his resignation in 2018.

It’s unclear whether the warnings this week from Mattis, Murkowski and others carry any sway with voters or signal any broader shift within the Republican Party. Trump faced a similar insurrection among members of the so-called establishment before the 2016 election and ultimately prevailed with a comfortable Electoral College victory. His grip on the GOP has tightened during his more than three years in office given the loyalty of his core backers.

Some of those supporters have publicly closed ranks around the president during the protests, applauding his administration’s heavy-handed response and urging him to take more aggressive actions to quell demonstrations that get out of hand.

“These conditions can shift rapidly in any city across the country and the president needs to have the tools and the equipment and the information needed to move quickly to protect our citizens if that’s what’s necessary,” said Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark.

Yet it’s clear that the crises battering the nation have shifted the ground beneath Trump. His response to the COVID-19 pandemic has been uneven, and the resulting financial slowdown has upended his plans to run for reelection on the back of a strong economy.

His embrace of a strongman strategy may well be a way to rally his most ardent supporters, appeal to a sense of uncertainty many Americans are feeling and lock down a narrow path to victory in November. Yet it has also left his critics anxious about the steps he may be willing to take between now and then.

“It’s hard to envision any line that Donald Trump won’t cross or anything he won’t do,” said Peter Wehner, a veteran of three Republican administrations and an ardent critic of the president. “The question is whether the system of government, and the people who make up government and the court would be able to check him.”

___

EDITOR’S NOTE: Julie Pace has covered the White House and politics for the AP since 2007. Follow her at http://twitter.com/jpaceDC

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[courtneytincher]

A Ukrainian Villain Is Now Cracking Heads in Moscow

(Bloomberg Opinion) -- Colonel Sergei Kusyuk was a key villain in Ukraine’s revolution of 2013-2014; in fact, he may have set it off through his ham-handed actions. Now, he has shown up in Moscow, once again cracking down on protesters with a vastly disproportionate use of force – but the city is not rising up as Kiev did six years ago.On the evening of Nov. 29, 2013, Kusyuk was deputy commander of the special forces unit of the Ukrainian police, the Berkut. There had been protests that day in Kiev’s Independence Square against President Viktor Yanukovych’s refusal to sign a trade and association deal with the European Union. But by nightfall, only a handful of young people remained. They likely would have soon left, too – a crowd of 300 people clearly wasn’t enough to make Yanukovych reconsider. But then, according to Ukrainian prosecutors, the president ordered the remaining protesters dispersed, ostensibly so a large artificial Christmas tree could be set up in the square. Kusyuk carried out the order with needless cruelty: the students got a severe beating. There were bloodied skulls and broken limbs.The episode was the starting point of much bigger protests, which ended in Yanukovych’s overthrow and escape to Russia. I was in Kiev when it seemed the entire city – perhaps as many as 1 million people – took to the streets in anger. Protesters even seized the Kiev mayor’s office. It was clear to everyone, including Yanukovych and Russian President Vladimir Putin -- who called the Kiev events a “pogrom” – that bigger things were afoot than the spurned EU deal. The protests escalated, and in February, firearms were distributed to the increasingly overtaxed Berkut officers. Dozens of protesters were shot in the revolution’s final days, and Kusyuk is now wanted for his alleged role.But it’s not likely that Ukrainian law enforcement will get its hands on Colonel Kusyuk. Along with a number of his Berkut colleagues, he fled to Moscow, where he now serves in a special police unit of Russia’s National Guard called the OMON. He acquired Russian citizenship, and even got his old rank back. He was first recognized in his new role at a Moscow protest in 2017.On Saturday, he was out again, commanding a huge riot police force ordered to disperse an unsanctioned protest in central Moscow against the exclusion of opposition candidates from an upcoming city council election. The previous week’s unrest set a record with more than 1,300 detentions, as the Kremlin  demonstrated it won’t tolerate any spontaneous street activity from the so-called “non-system,” anti-Putin opposition. Fewer people turned out over the weekend, and it appeared at times they were outnumbered by riot police, many wearing balaclavas under their helmets to avoid identification. The brutal beatings of non-resisting young people by officers in full riot gear seemed like a replay of Kiev, 2013 – and no wonder, given that Kusyuk was in charge. Around 1,000 people  were detained, at least 81 of them minors. And yet Muscovites didn’t rise up in response to the beatings as Kievans had done. Just as the crackdown was taking place, thousands attended two music festivals (one of them hastily organized by the city government to distract the public) and a big soccer game between two hometown teams. As an emigre who wasn’t at the protests, I have no moral right to condemn my native city’s residents for indifference. All I can do is point out that what was unacceptable in Ukraine, run by a bungling dictator in late 2013, people will are willing to allow in Russia, run by a more competent one in 2019.The reasons for the difference are complex. Moscow is a city overflowing with money; the unemployment rate there is 1.2% compared with almost 5% nationwide. That means Muscovites have more to lose than the relatively poorer Kievans did by joining the protests, which can result in jail terms and getting effectively blacklisted for employment. The city council is one of the country’s weakest regional legislatures, elections to it usually attract low turnouts, and Muscovites care little about it. A better cause might have drawn more protesters, even in July, when many people are away on vacation.But a more important reason, I think, is the success of the Putin regime’s intimidation tactics, especially in the years since the last big protests, against a 2011 parliamentary election widely seen as stolen. They didn’t fully succeed in scaring Putin’s most active opponents: They still take to the streets, even though they know many of them will be beaten and/or detained. Yet most residents are inured to the kind of random, disproportionate violence that was so alien and deplorable to the Kievans of 2013. Muscovites just don’t get too worked up when a rubber stick comes down on a kid’s head: So what, happens all the time. Cops are like that. Can’t be helped.As the events in Kiev illustrated, there is an inherent danger for the state in the sort of brutal crackdown we’ve seen over the last week: Someone could be accidentally killed or very badly injured, and ordinary people would suddenly get angry and turn out in such numbers that police wouldn’t be able to cope. In Moscow, though, I’m not sure even that would make hundreds of thousands of people angry enough to overwhelm the “cosmonauts,” as Russian riot troops are sarcastically called because of their spacesuit-like outfits. No wonder only 3% of Russians say they consider the Moscow protests an important event: They’re just too small.Colonel Kusyuk came to the right place. Whatever happens next – and there’s clearly a growing lack of patience with the Kremlin among young Russians, not just in Moscow but also in the much more depressed provinces – he has a lot more latitude for his particular way of protecting the public order than he did in his former home country.To contact the author of this story: Leonid Bershidsky at lbershidsky@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Tobin Harshaw at tharshaw@bloomberg.netThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Leonid Bershidsky is Bloomberg Opinion's Europe columnist. He was the founding editor of the Russian business daily Vedomosti and founded the opinion website Slon.ru.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

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(Bloomberg Opinion) -- Colonel Sergei Kusyuk was a key villain in Ukraine’s revolution of 2013-2014; in fact, he may have set it off through his ham-handed actions. Now, he has shown up in Moscow, once again cracking down on protesters with a vastly disproportionate use of force – but the city is not rising up as Kiev did six years ago.On the evening of Nov. 29, 2013, Kusyuk was deputy commander of the special forces unit of the Ukrainian police, the Berkut. There had been protests that day in Kiev’s Independence Square against President Viktor Yanukovych’s refusal to sign a trade and association deal with the European Union. But by nightfall, only a handful of young people remained. They likely would have soon left, too – a crowd of 300 people clearly wasn’t enough to make Yanukovych reconsider. But then, according to Ukrainian prosecutors, the president ordered the remaining protesters dispersed, ostensibly so a large artificial Christmas tree could be set up in the square. Kusyuk carried out the order with needless cruelty: the students got a severe beating. There were bloodied skulls and broken limbs.The episode was the starting point of much bigger protests, which ended in Yanukovych’s overthrow and escape to Russia. I was in Kiev when it seemed the entire city – perhaps as many as 1 million people – took to the streets in anger. Protesters even seized the Kiev mayor’s office. It was clear to everyone, including Yanukovych and Russian President Vladimir Putin -- who called the Kiev events a “pogrom” – that bigger things were afoot than the spurned EU deal. The protests escalated, and in February, firearms were distributed to the increasingly overtaxed Berkut officers. Dozens of protesters were shot in the revolution’s final days, and Kusyuk is now wanted for his alleged role.But it’s not likely that Ukrainian law enforcement will get its hands on Colonel Kusyuk. Along with a number of his Berkut colleagues, he fled to Moscow, where he now serves in a special police unit of Russia’s National Guard called the OMON. He acquired Russian citizenship, and even got his old rank back. He was first recognized in his new role at a Moscow protest in 2017.On Saturday, he was out again, commanding a huge riot police force ordered to disperse an unsanctioned protest in central Moscow against the exclusion of opposition candidates from an upcoming city council election. The previous week’s unrest set a record with more than 1,300 detentions, as the Kremlin  demonstrated it won’t tolerate any spontaneous street activity from the so-called “non-system,” anti-Putin opposition. Fewer people turned out over the weekend, and it appeared at times they were outnumbered by riot police, many wearing balaclavas under their helmets to avoid identification. The brutal beatings of non-resisting young people by officers in full riot gear seemed like a replay of Kiev, 2013 – and no wonder, given that Kusyuk was in charge. Around 1,000 people  were detained, at least 81 of them minors. And yet Muscovites didn’t rise up in response to the beatings as Kievans had done. Just as the crackdown was taking place, thousands attended two music festivals (one of them hastily organized by the city government to distract the public) and a big soccer game between two hometown teams. As an emigre who wasn’t at the protests, I have no moral right to condemn my native city’s residents for indifference. All I can do is point out that what was unacceptable in Ukraine, run by a bungling dictator in late 2013, people will are willing to allow in Russia, run by a more competent one in 2019.The reasons for the difference are complex. Moscow is a city overflowing with money; the unemployment rate there is 1.2% compared with almost 5% nationwide. That means Muscovites have more to lose than the relatively poorer Kievans did by joining the protests, which can result in jail terms and getting effectively blacklisted for employment. The city council is one of the country’s weakest regional legislatures, elections to it usually attract low turnouts, and Muscovites care little about it. A better cause might have drawn more protesters, even in July, when many people are away on vacation.But a more important reason, I think, is the success of the Putin regime’s intimidation tactics, especially in the years since the last big protests, against a 2011 parliamentary election widely seen as stolen. They didn’t fully succeed in scaring Putin’s most active opponents: They still take to the streets, even though they know many of them will be beaten and/or detained. Yet most residents are inured to the kind of random, disproportionate violence that was so alien and deplorable to the Kievans of 2013. Muscovites just don’t get too worked up when a rubber stick comes down on a kid’s head: So what, happens all the time. Cops are like that. Can’t be helped.As the events in Kiev illustrated, there is an inherent danger for the state in the sort of brutal crackdown we’ve seen over the last week: Someone could be accidentally killed or very badly injured, and ordinary people would suddenly get angry and turn out in such numbers that police wouldn’t be able to cope. In Moscow, though, I’m not sure even that would make hundreds of thousands of people angry enough to overwhelm the “cosmonauts,” as Russian riot troops are sarcastically called because of their spacesuit-like outfits. No wonder only 3% of Russians say they consider the Moscow protests an important event: They’re just too small.Colonel Kusyuk came to the right place. Whatever happens next – and there’s clearly a growing lack of patience with the Kremlin among young Russians, not just in Moscow but also in the much more depressed provinces – he has a lot more latitude for his particular way of protecting the public order than he did in his former home country.To contact the author of this story: Leonid Bershidsky at lbershidsky@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Tobin Harshaw at tharshaw@bloomberg.netThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Leonid Bershidsky is Bloomberg Opinion's Europe columnist. He was the founding editor of the Russian business daily Vedomosti and founded the opinion website Slon.ru.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

August 06, 2019 at 05:00AM via IFTTT

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Nature Myanmar’s Military Said to Be Behind Facebook Campaign That Fueled Genocide

Nature Myanmar’s Military Said to Be Behind Facebook Campaign That Fueled Genocide Nature Myanmar’s Military Said to Be Behind Facebook Campaign That Fueled Genocide https://ift.tt/2OveWsg

Nature

Image

A border police officer stands guard at a repatriation center for Rohingya returning to Myanmar. Human rights groups blame anti-Rohingya propaganda online for fueling violence and displacement.CreditCreditAdam Dean for The New York Times

NAYPYIDAW, Myanmar — They posed as fans of pop stars and national heroes as they flooded Facebook with their hatred. One said Islam was a global threat to Buddhism. Another shared a false story about the rape of a Buddhist woman by a Muslim man.

The Facebook posts were not from everyday internet users. Instead, they were from Myanmar military personnel who turned the social network into a tool for ethnic cleansing, according to former military officials, researchers and civilian officials in the country.

The Myanmar military were the prime operatives behind a systematic campaign on Facebook that stretched back half a decade and that targeted the country’s mostly Muslim Rohingya minority group, the people said. The military exploited Facebook’s wide reach in Myanmar, where it is so broadly used that many of the country’s 18 million internet users confuse the Silicon Valley social media platform with the internet. Human rights groups blame the anti-Rohingya propaganda for inciting murders, rapes and the largest forced human migration in recent history.

While Facebook took down the official accounts of senior Myanmar military leaders in August, the breadth and details of the propaganda campaign — which was hidden behind fake names and sham accounts — went undetected. The campaign, described by five people who asked for anonymity because they feared for their safety, included hundreds of military personnel who created troll accounts and news and celebrity pages on Facebook and then flooded them with incendiary comments and posts timed for peak viewership.

Working in shifts out of bases clustered in foothills near the capital of Naypyidaw, officers were also tasked with collecting intelligence on popular accounts and criticizing posts unfavorable to the military, the people said. So secretive were the operations that all but top leaders had to check their phones at the door.

Facebook confirmed many of the details about the shadowy, military-driven campaign. The company’s head of cybersecurity policy, Nathaniel Gleicher, said it had found “clear and deliberate attempts to covertly spread propaganda that were directly linked to the Myanmar military.”

On Monday, following questions from The New York Times, it said it took down a series of accounts that supposedly were focused on entertainment but were instead tied to the military. Those accounts had 1.3 million followers.

“We discovered that these seemingly independent entertainment, beauty and informational pages were linked to the Myanmar military,” the company said in its announcement.

The previously unreported actions by Myanmar’s military on Facebook are among the first examples of an authoritarian government using the social network against its own people. It is another facet of the disruptive disinformation campaigns that are unfolding on the site. In the past, state-backed Russians and Iranians spread divisive and inflammatory messages through Facebook to people in other countries. In the United States, some domestic groups have now adopted similar tactics ahead of the midterm elections.

“The military has gotten a lot of benefit from Facebook,” said Thet Swe Win, founder of Synergy, a group that focuses on fostering social harmony in Myanmar. “I wouldn’t say Facebook is directly involved in the ethnic cleansing, but there is a responsibility they had to take proper actions to avoid becoming an instigator of genocide.”

In August, after months of reports about anti-Rohingya propaganda on Facebook, the company acknowledged that it had been too slow to act in Myanmar. By then, more than 700,000 Rohingya had fled the country in a year, in what United Nations officials called “a textbook example of ethnic cleansing.” The company has said it is bolstering its efforts to stop such abuses.

“We have taken significant steps to remove this abuse and make it harder on Facebook,” Mr. Gleicher said. “Investigations into this type of activity are ongoing.”

The information committee of Myanmar’s military did not respond to multiple requests for comment.

The Myanmar military’s Facebook operation began several years ago, said the people familiar with how it worked. The military threw major resources at the task, the people said, with as many as 700 people on it.

They began by setting up what appeared to be news pages and pages on Facebook that were devoted to Burmese pop stars, models and other celebrities, like a beauty queen with a penchant for parroting military propaganda. They then tended the pages to attract large numbers of followers, said the people. They took over one Facebook page devoted to a military sniper, Ohn Maung, who had won national acclaim after being wounded in battle. They also ran a popular blog called Opposite Eyes that had no outward ties to the military, the people said.

Those then became distribution channels for lurid photos, false news and inflammatory posts, often aimed at Myanmar’s Muslims, the people said. Troll accounts run by the military helped spread the content, shout down critics and fuel arguments between commenters to rile people up. Often, they posted sham photos of corpses that they said were evidence of Rohingya-perpetrated massacres, said one of the people.

Digital fingerprints showed that one major source of the Facebook content came from areas outside Naypyidaw, where the military keeps compounds, some of the people said.

Some military personnel on the effort suffered from low morale, said two of the people, in part because of the need to spread unfounded rumors about people like Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, the Nobel laureate and Myanmar’s de facto civilian leader, to hurt their credibility. One hoax used a real photo of Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi in a wheelchair and paired it with false suggestions that she had gone to South Korea for Botox injections, the people said.

The Facebook page of the sniper, Mr. Ohn Maung, offers one example of the military’s tactics. It gained a large following because of his descriptions of the day-to-day life of a soldier. The account was ultimately taken over by a military team to pump out propaganda, such as posts portraying Rohingya as terrorists, said two of the people.

One of the most dangerous campaigns came in 2017, when the military’s intelligence arm spread rumors on Facebook to both Muslim and Buddhist groups that an attack from the other side was imminent, said two people. Making use of the anniversary of Sept. 11, 2001, it spread warnings on Facebook Messenger via widely followed accounts masquerading as news sites and celebrity fan pages that “jihad attacks” would be carried out. To Muslim groups it spread a separate message that nationalist Buddhist monks were organizing anti-Muslim protests.

Image

A settlement for Rohingya arrivals in Thang Khali, Bangladesh. More than 700,000 Rohingya have fled Myanmar in what United Nations officials have called “a textbook example of ethnic cleansing.”CreditAdam Dean for The New York Times

The purpose of the campaign, which set the country on edge, was to generate widespread feelings of vulnerability and fear that could be salved only by the military’s protection, said researchers who followed the tactics.

Facebook said it had found evidence that the messages were being intentionally spread by inauthentic accounts and took some down at the time of the incident. It did not investigate any link to the military at that point.

The military tapped its rich history of psychological warfare that it developed during the decades when Myanmar was controlled by a military junta, which gave up power in 2011. The goal then was to discredit radio broadcasts from the B.B.C. and Voice of America. One veteran of that era said classes on advanced psychological warfare from 15 years ago taught a golden rule for false news: If one quarter of the content is true, that helps make the rest of it believable.

Some military personnel picked up techniques from Russia. Three people familiar with the situation said some officers had studied psychological warfare, hacking and other computer skills in Russia. Some would give lectures to pass along the information when they returned, one person said.

The Myanmar military’s links to Russia go back decades, but around 2000, it began sending large groups of officers to the country to study, said researchers. Soldiers stationed in Russia for training opened blogs and got into arguments with Burmese political exiles in places like Singapore.

The campaign in Myanmar looked similar to online influence campaigns from Russia, said Myat Thu, a researcher who studies false news and propaganda on Facebook. One technique involved fake accounts with few followers spewing venomous comments beneath posts and sharing misinformation posted by more popular accounts to help them spread rapidly.

Human rights groups focused on the Facebook page called Opposite Eyes, which began as a blog about a decade ago and then leapt to the social network. By then, the military was behind it, said two people. The blog provided a mix of military news, like hype about the purchase of new Russian fighter jets, and posts attacking ethnic minority groups like the Rohingya.

At times, according to Moe Htet Nay, an activist who kept tabs on it, the ties of the Opposite Eyes Facebook page to the military spilled into the open. Once, it wrote about a military victory in Myanmar’s Kachin state before the news became public. Below the post, a senior officer wrote that the information was not public and should be taken down. It was.

“It was very systematic,” said Mr. Moe Htet Nay, adding that other Facebook accounts reposted everything that the blog wrote, spreading its message further. Although Facebook has taken the page down, the hashtag #Oppositeyes still brings up anti-Rohingya posts.

Today, both Facebook and Myanmar’s civilian leaders said they were keenly aware of the power of the platform.

“Facebook in Myanmar? I don’t like it,” said Oo Hla Saw, a legislator. “It’s been dangerous and harmful for our democratic transition.”

Follow Paul Mozur on Twitter: @paulmozur.

Wai Moe contributed reporting from Yangon.

Read More | https://ift.tt/2OrQ8kO |

Nature Myanmar’s Military Said to Be Behind Facebook Campaign That Fueled Genocide, in 2018-10-15 16:42:38

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Nature Myanmar’s Military Said to Be Behind Facebook Campaign That Fueled Genocide

Nature Myanmar’s Military Said to Be Behind Facebook Campaign That Fueled Genocide Nature Myanmar’s Military Said to Be Behind Facebook Campaign That Fueled Genocide http://www.nature-business.com/nature-myanmars-military-said-to-be-behind-facebook-campaign-that-fueled-genocide/

Nature

Image

A border police officer stands guard at a repatriation center for Rohingya returning to Myanmar. Human rights groups blame anti-Rohingya propaganda online for fueling violence and displacement.CreditCreditAdam Dean for The New York Times

NAYPYIDAW, Myanmar — They posed as fans of pop stars and national heroes as they flooded Facebook with their hatred. One said Islam was a global threat to Buddhism. Another shared a false story about the rape of a Buddhist woman by a Muslim man.

The Facebook posts were not from everyday internet users. Instead, they were from Myanmar military personnel who turned the social network into a tool for ethnic cleansing, according to former military officials, researchers and civilian officials in the country.

The Myanmar military were the prime operatives behind a systematic campaign on Facebook that stretched back half a decade and that targeted the country’s mostly Muslim Rohingya minority group, the people said. The military exploited Facebook’s wide reach in Myanmar, where it is so broadly used that many of the country’s 18 million internet users confuse the Silicon Valley social media platform with the internet. Human rights groups blame the anti-Rohingya propaganda for inciting murders, rapes and the largest forced human migration in recent history.

While Facebook took down the official accounts of senior Myanmar military leaders in August, the breadth and details of the propaganda campaign — which was hidden behind fake names and sham accounts — went undetected. The campaign, described by five people who asked for anonymity because they feared for their safety, included hundreds of military personnel who created troll accounts and news and celebrity pages on Facebook and then flooded them with incendiary comments and posts timed for peak viewership.

Working in shifts out of bases clustered in foothills near the capital of Naypyidaw, officers were also tasked with collecting intelligence on popular accounts and criticizing posts unfavorable to the military, the people said. So secretive were the operations that all but top leaders had to check their phones at the door.

Facebook confirmed many of the details about the shadowy, military-driven campaign. The company’s head of cybersecurity policy, Nathaniel Gleicher, said it had found “clear and deliberate attempts to covertly spread propaganda that were directly linked to the Myanmar military.”

On Monday, following questions from The New York Times, it said it took down a series of accounts that supposedly were focused on entertainment but were instead tied to the military. Those accounts had 1.3 million followers.

“We discovered that these seemingly independent entertainment, beauty and informational pages were linked to the Myanmar military,” the company said in its announcement.

The previously unreported actions by Myanmar’s military on Facebook are among the first examples of an authoritarian government using the social network against its own people. It is another facet of the disruptive disinformation campaigns that are unfolding on the site. In the past, state-backed Russians and Iranians spread divisive and inflammatory messages through Facebook to people in other countries. In the United States, some domestic groups have now adopted similar tactics ahead of the midterm elections.

“The military has gotten a lot of benefit from Facebook,” said Thet Swe Win, founder of Synergy, a group that focuses on fostering social harmony in Myanmar. “I wouldn’t say Facebook is directly involved in the ethnic cleansing, but there is a responsibility they had to take proper actions to avoid becoming an instigator of genocide.”

In August, after months of reports about anti-Rohingya propaganda on Facebook, the company acknowledged that it had been too slow to act in Myanmar. By then, more than 700,000 Rohingya had fled the country in a year, in what United Nations officials called “a textbook example of ethnic cleansing.” The company has said it is bolstering its efforts to stop such abuses.

“We have taken significant steps to remove this abuse and make it harder on Facebook,” Mr. Gleicher said. “Investigations into this type of activity are ongoing.”

The information committee of Myanmar’s military did not respond to multiple requests for comment.

The Myanmar military’s Facebook operation began several years ago, said the people familiar with how it worked. The military threw major resources at the task, the people said, with as many as 700 people on it.

They began by setting up what appeared to be news pages and pages on Facebook that were devoted to Burmese pop stars, models and other celebrities, like a beauty queen with a penchant for parroting military propaganda. They then tended the pages to attract large numbers of followers, said the people. They took over one Facebook page devoted to a military sniper, Ohn Maung, who had won national acclaim after being wounded in battle. They also ran a popular blog called Opposite Eyes that had no outward ties to the military, the people said.

Those then became distribution channels for lurid photos, false news and inflammatory posts, often aimed at Myanmar’s Muslims, the people said. Troll accounts run by the military helped spread the content, shout down critics and fuel arguments between commenters to rile people up. Often, they posted sham photos of corpses that they said were evidence of Rohingya-perpetrated massacres, said one of the people.

Digital fingerprints showed that one major source of the Facebook content came from areas outside Naypyidaw, where the military keeps compounds, some of the people said.

Some military personnel on the effort suffered from low morale, said two of the people, in part because of the need to spread unfounded rumors about people like Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, the Nobel laureate and Myanmar’s de facto civilian leader, to hurt their credibility. One hoax used a real photo of Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi in a wheelchair and paired it with false suggestions that she had gone to South Korea for Botox injections, the people said.

The Facebook page of the sniper, Mr. Ohn Maung, offers one example of the military’s tactics. It gained a large following because of his descriptions of the day-to-day life of a soldier. The account was ultimately taken over by a military team to pump out propaganda, such as posts portraying Rohingya as terrorists, said two of the people.

One of the most dangerous campaigns came in 2017, when the military’s intelligence arm spread rumors on Facebook to both Muslim and Buddhist groups that an attack from the other side was imminent, said two people. Making use of the anniversary of Sept. 11, 2001, it spread warnings on Facebook Messenger via widely followed accounts masquerading as news sites and celebrity fan pages that “jihad attacks” would be carried out. To Muslim groups it spread a separate message that nationalist Buddhist monks were organizing anti-Muslim protests.

Image

A settlement for Rohingya arrivals in Thang Khali, Bangladesh. More than 700,000 Rohingya have fled Myanmar in what United Nations officials have called “a textbook example of ethnic cleansing.”CreditAdam Dean for The New York Times

The purpose of the campaign, which set the country on edge, was to generate widespread feelings of vulnerability and fear that could be salved only by the military’s protection, said researchers who followed the tactics.

Facebook said it had found evidence that the messages were being intentionally spread by inauthentic accounts and took some down at the time of the incident. It did not investigate any link to the military at that point.

The military tapped its rich history of psychological warfare that it developed during the decades when Myanmar was controlled by a military junta, which gave up power in 2011. The goal then was to discredit radio broadcasts from the B.B.C. and Voice of America. One veteran of that era said classes on advanced psychological warfare from 15 years ago taught a golden rule for false news: If one quarter of the content is true, that helps make the rest of it believable.

Some military personnel picked up techniques from Russia. Three people familiar with the situation said some officers had studied psychological warfare, hacking and other computer skills in Russia. Some would give lectures to pass along the information when they returned, one person said.

The Myanmar military’s links to Russia go back decades, but around 2000, it began sending large groups of officers to the country to study, said researchers. Soldiers stationed in Russia for training opened blogs and got into arguments with Burmese political exiles in places like Singapore.

The campaign in Myanmar looked similar to online influence campaigns from Russia, said Myat Thu, a researcher who studies false news and propaganda on Facebook. One technique involved fake accounts with few followers spewing venomous comments beneath posts and sharing misinformation posted by more popular accounts to help them spread rapidly.

Human rights groups focused on the Facebook page called Opposite Eyes, which began as a blog about a decade ago and then leapt to the social network. By then, the military was behind it, said two people. The blog provided a mix of military news, like hype about the purchase of new Russian fighter jets, and posts attacking ethnic minority groups like the Rohingya.

At times, according to Moe Htet Nay, an activist who kept tabs on it, the ties of the Opposite Eyes Facebook page to the military spilled into the open. Once, it wrote about a military victory in Myanmar’s Kachin state before the news became public. Below the post, a senior officer wrote that the information was not public and should be taken down. It was.

“It was very systematic,” said Mr. Moe Htet Nay, adding that other Facebook accounts reposted everything that the blog wrote, spreading its message further. Although Facebook has taken the page down, the hashtag #Oppositeyes still brings up anti-Rohingya posts.

Today, both Facebook and Myanmar’s civilian leaders said they were keenly aware of the power of the platform.

“Facebook in Myanmar? I don’t like it,” said Oo Hla Saw, a legislator. “It’s been dangerous and harmful for our democratic transition.”

Follow Paul Mozur on Twitter: @paulmozur.

Wai Moe contributed reporting from Yangon.

Read More | https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/15/technology/myanmar-facebook-genocide.html |

Nature Myanmar’s Military Said to Be Behind Facebook Campaign That Fueled Genocide, in 2018-10-15 16:42:38