#p-value

[withoutaconscienceorafilter]

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This explained a concept that has been confounding me in academic papers and I am so grateful.

[isitstatisticallysignificant]

true for more than just PHDs.

the over-dependence on p-values is heart stopping.

[xagave]

Can I interest you in some Troll Currency

[locusfandomtime]

Doing the maths: Grian's failure at getting a mending book

lots of talk about maths and probabilities below the cut! but there's a graph and simple explanation at the end if you want to get the gist of it and are bad at maths.

(I am still young and learning maths, critique/advice always welcomed)

What are the odds of getting a mending book in Minecraft?

(I am assuming Grian has been doing all his fishing with Luck of the Sea 3)

The probability of a mending book is actually a bit annoying to estimate. The Minecraft Wiki lists fishing up an enchanted book as 1.9% chance. This is for ANY enchanted book. The Minecraft wiki talks about how the chance of an enchantment being selected is calculated. Mending has a weight of 2. Using the table, mending has a probability of 2/135.

However, Grian is looking for any book with mending, not just a pure mending book. Additional enchantments are calculated in a different way, involving RNG, which means it won't be as easy to model. Due to this reason, I'll just be using the odds for a pure mending book throughout.

TLDR: a mending book has a 0.028..% chance (2/135*0.019*100)

Grian's Data

According to this screenshot, Grian has used a fishing rod 5679 times. This number may not be fully accurate, as it includes the times he's fished other players, rather than just fished for items, but it is a good estimate.

To help visualise this data, with a median waiting time between catches of 17.5 seconds, Grian has spent over 20 hours fishing so far! He may have a problem.

Is this statistically significant?

Hypothesis testing (p-value approach):

H0: p = 19/67500 (the null hypothesis - he has no mending books because of chance)

H1: p < 19/67500 (the alternate hypothesis - he has no mending books due to different odds)

5679 trials, 0 mending books

X ~ B(5679, 19/67500) (binomial distribution, 5679 tries with a probability of a mending book being 19/67500, where X is the number of mending books)

p(X=0) (what is the probability the number of mending books being 0)

p = 0.2021473392

Now, the point at which data becomes significant is subjective. For instance, you *could* get a million heads in a row flipping a coin, it's not impossible, but at a certain point, you can begin to say "okay there's something not normal about this". For this approach, the closer the p-value is to 0, the more evidence there is against the null hypothesis . The p-value here is far above a significance level of 0.01, or 0.05, or 0.1. There isn't a clear line between significant/non-significant, but this is answer is quite a bit far from 0

With this, I cannot reject the null hypothesis.

Personal conclusion: this is not statistically significant, Grian is just unlucky.

Are other values statistically significant?

Gem's proposed 9000: results in a p-value of 0.079... more significant than Grian's number but I don't imagine Mojang would be too concerned. As said though, it's all subjective.

I am bad at maths, what does all this mean?

Here is a graph, showing what number of mending books you might have after 5679 tries. The height of the bar represents the probability of getting that amount. The numbers at the top are the (rounded) numbers I used in my calculation

The pink column is 0 mending books - like what Grian has! As you can see, it is less likely than getting 1 or 2 books, but not too uncommon to happen.

End conclusion: Grian has bad luck. Like, not as hilariously bad as he thinks, but still bad. If he keeps going, chances are he will get a mending book, but I think he should probably stop fishing because at this point he has a problem.

[turtleblogatlast]

Leo getting hit with a truth curse but instead of forcing him to admit to super sad or worrying things it’s things like “it was me who broke the remote” “I saw Mikey prank Donnie and helped hide it because it’s way funnier if he didn’t know who it was” “I rip my clothes to look more like Raph’s because he’s really cool” “my stripes aren’t even red they’re pink!”

[13eyond13]

you ever think about how Misa's lack of intelligence and the way she lets her emotions impulsively dictate her actions was kinda constantly made the butt of the joke in DN, yet she genuinely outlived all the dudes and dudettes who were always scoffing at her stupidity. Somehow this is even better to me in that she wasn't even trying to outlive Light and didn't have any particularly high regard for her own life, so it's not due to her secretly being the best strategist of them all intentionally either... Regardless of the author's intent behind it I like that it pokes some holes in their constant smug assertions that you must have the very highest IQ to be the last guy standing in the murder notebook game

[keii4ii]

My Lies of P experience, part A

[leapdayowo]

Feelings Buddies :D

I realized I can paint isat fanart at night because there are no colors I have to be worried about looking different in daylight vs fluorescent light :3

here’s a bit more of a close up:

Spoiler for the end of isat:

I really like how Mirabelle and Siffrin connect with each other at the end of the game over how anxiety impacts them + the whole aro/ace conversation with the dating profiles. Mirabelle realizing she didn’t get to know Siffrin very well and wanting to change that on their journey to Bambouche

so yeah, they’re just chillin :3

[stuckinapril]

I just know I’m gonna struggle in my later years bc I don’t wanna get married I don’t want kids I just wanna rawdog life and be a hot milf

[chongoblog]

Hey you’re a math guy right? And you like Balatro right? I’ve had this math question related to Balatro but I can’t phrase it properly to get a satisfactory answer from google so I was wondering if you or a follower could help? Anyway here goes:

In Balatro there is a deck called the Plasma Deck which “balances” your chips and your mult so that they are equal in order to increase your score. I understand that mathematically given two positive numbers x and y when multiplied together will have an increasing total as x and y approach each other given their sum is constant. What I REALLY want to know is that if for any given sum of x and y where each integer permutation with the same sum is equally likely, what is the expected increase in score from balancing and is it thus worth it to double score requirements?

Tl;dr for any given total T where x and y are positive integers and sum to T and where each permutation of x and y are equally likely, what is the expected increase in value from x times y to (T/2)^2

So I am familiar with the Plasma Deck. Despite note having unlocked it yet it's definitely the one I'm most excited to unlock for this exact reason.

That said, let's talk about the question at hand. I can fix a more sophisticated explanation for this at another point in time, but here's my answer for now. If you're expecting an equal distribution of possible positive integers x and y, then no, the expected increase in score isn't double. For example, let's say T is 20 and p is the product of these values.

As you can see, out of all of these outcomes, only two of them are less than half of (T/2)^2 (which is 100 in this case). Which, if we were expecting an equal distribution of possible x and y values, would make the idea of doubling the score requirement seem incredibly unbalanced. However, that's where the strategy comes in. If you can make a build where you x and y values are 1 and 19, then the Plasma Deck more than quintuples your value, making the doubling of the score requirement seem like a breeze. So the strategy of Plasma Deck is basically to hard focus either x (chips) or y (mult)

Maybe if I have time I'll see if there's some sort of equation discussing this (there almost certainly is) but until then I am tired

[slunberparty]

testing a new coloring method with Pinkie!

[makkxb]

value study, and another excuse to draw him bc HE IS PLAGUING MY MIND

[canonical-transformation]

actually Sigewinne/Wriothesley is a PETA-disapproved ship 🚨😦🩸 because it's very stressful for the poor little guy with his poor little human emotions. 🙁🙁😥😥 He didn't sign up to be an alien sea slug's pet chewtoy! 🚫⛔🚫👎 That's why the ethical alternative ⚖️☮️♻️ is Sigewinne/Zandik, because the latter would eat as many syringes as Sigewinne told him to (for science!), and he'd get a kick out of it. In this essay,

[lastlifesmp]

P!SCOTT ALREADY HAD ABANDOMENT ISSUES AND NOW THERE'S THIS SHIT??

I did not expect better from P!Owen tho I'm not going to lie, this is not a surprising action from her character, it's just sad she never got the development that would make her change her mind.

[gingermintpepper]

hi I love your tags so so much! they were so sweet and so interesting and creative and the whole Aphrodite type of beauty thing sounds really interesting do you have any articles and recommendations to read further into it??

-hogoflight

Hello my fine feathered (I am assuming possession of feathers if you are, indeed, capable of flight) @hogoflight! I'm always always happy to hear that people appreciate my frenzied rambling in the tags :D! I have a lot of articles and recommendations :D!! Ancient Greek notions of beauty and representations of it in their art and sculptures is a pretty well studied topic! There isn't any way for us now to know definitively what the beauty standard was (it varied widely from region to region and culture to culture after all) but here are a couple of my favourite reads about Aphrodite and what her representations tell us about idealised beauty!

Probably the most empirically extensive one I can list is Krönström's thesis which compares statues of Aphrodite and literary text referring to both the goddess and mortal women to determine physical ideals for women in five specific eras of Grecian antiquity. Including measurements of the statues there are many descriptions of Aphrodite as 'curvy' with a 'voluptuous figure' and with 'ample buttocks and bosom'.

"When the beauty traits are described in the texts, they are never extreme or anything that could not be found in normal people just that they are more beautiful in every aspect. Furthermore, the sculptures’ physical forms look healthy, they are tall and have distinct curves. Great examples of this are the Knida sculpture and de Milo (the Melian) sculpture."

Of course, these images are still idealised, and there was still a concept such as 'too fat' or 'too skinny' found in written records (and this thesis even includes analysis of pornographic writings and descriptions of the fashion and stylings of pubic hair of women from different regions!!) but from an interpretational standpoint? There is absolutely no reason why these can't refer to a fuller figure. Height was also a very important factor after all and over the course of many eras, it seems like being well proportioned in addition to the length and appearance of one's hair were the most important factors (and, like Apollo, greater beauty was given to those with curlier hair)

Mireille M. Lee's 'Other Ways of Seeing' essay which talks about the forgotten female viewers of Knidian Aphrodite which is also extremely illuminating on how Aphroditic sexuality and sensuality was perceived totally differently from the well documented male voyeuristic gaze (which was overly preoccupied with the statue's nakedness and therefore over-sensationalised the statue's physical appearance) vs women's perspective on the statue which is more centered on the beauty of simplicity in Aphrodite's garment and decoration and in her power and ability to captivate both in her finery and without it. I think it's especially useful in exploring the importance of finery, jewellry and adornment in representations of Aphroditic beauty.

"Some of the small-scale copies are heavily jeweled, especially those from the eastern Mediterranean, for example the Hellenistic gilded terracotta statuette in the Çanakkale Museum (Fig. 5) in which the goddess wears, in addition to the armband on her (right) arm, the following: a necklace with multiple pendants; cross-bands extending over both shoulders and hips, with a cascading pendant in the center; a coiled snake armband on the left arm and another snake on her left thigh, and a twisted anklet on her right leg. (The left leg has been restored, and might also have featured an anklet.)"

"Jewelry is especially associated with Aphrodite in Greek literature. As seen above, in the Homeric Hymn to Aphrodite, the goddess adorns herself with gold jewelry, dress-pins, and earrings in the shape of flowers (162–3)..."

Finally, and to me, the most important one in the argument for an interpretation of Hyacinthus as fat, beautiful and fundamentally Aphroditic comes from Brilmayer's brilliant brilliant thesis done on Aphrodite's work and influence in Archaic Greek Poetry which does away with all of that masculine preoccupation with physical proportion, measurement and bodily ideals for a focus on a Sapphic Aphroditic ideal centered in clothing, ornamentation and, most importantly cunning as symbols of Aphrodite and ultimately a feminine idealised form of beauty. This paper also discusses Pandora and Helen in these terms and it is just kind of a wonderful read tbh.

"Combining Homeric and Hesiodic elements with her own ideas, she [Sappho] alters the way female beauty is viewed. For example, the Homeric war chariot – a symbol of male, military prowess - comes to symbolise the totality of Aphrodite’s power uniting in itself male and female qualities. Having addressed the concept of beauty directly, Sappho then concludes that beauty lies in the eye of the beholder. With the help of Helen of Troy and her beloved Anaktoria, Sappho sets out to reinvent the concept of female beauty as a godlike, subjective quality that may be expressed in many ways, yet remains inspired by Aphrodite."

The conclusion to all of this of course is that Aphroditic ideal beauty is much more fluid compared to its stricter Apolline masculine standard. The nuances and understandings of both are of course, constantly being studied, analysed and scrutinised but really, if Dionysus who was both bearded and clean shorn, effeminate, birthed and rebirthed (and twice gestated!) and strongly associated with vegetation can be popularly portrayed as fat and handsome, why can't Hyacinthus?!

[antisyscourse]

hello everybody!!! as we zoom past 200 followers, i just wanted to thank everybody for your support!!! thank you guys so much for being here for the ride and taking this journey with me, i truly appreciate it more than i can voice!!

the support this blog has received, through thick and thin, is honestly heart warming!! it's beautiful to see so many systems coming together to help each other and talk to each other in peace and solidarity!! so: thank you!! yes, you!!! thank you for reading this, thank you for being here, and thank you for your care and support as we march forwards!! :))

[ID: STOP! this is a syscourse free blog! it is a safe space for all systems, so please go away if you intend upon stirring up drama!]