#screwderia ferrari

[ladymarvel27]

WHERE THE HELL IS NICO ROSBERG?!!!!

Is he sick or something?

Why the hell he isn't saying something about Lewis to Ferrai??

WHERE IS HE?!

[blessed1904]

People:

"Leclerc should have overtaken max in 3 oportunitues already. Skill issue"

Literally the SF-23:

[solaireverie]

screwderia ferrari your days are numbered you took lestappen donuts away from me

[valyrfia]

I am VERY skeptical about the RBR Charles thing but they (see: Charles, RBR personell of all kinds) keep being SO WEIRD AND SUSPICIOUS about it

Yep yep yep. I go through cycles of being completely convinced and then calling myself delusional, but the fact remains that Max changed his tune on being teammates with Charles recently, Charles keeps talking about Max in interviews praising BOTH his performance and the car, Christian Horner is posting Max and Charles on Instagram as is the RBR account. I genuinely believe Red Bull are at LEAST trying to seriously poach him.

I'm still unsure as to whether they're working towards 2024 or 2025 (as Red Bull have proven with the recent talks with Lando, they're more than happy to buy out someone's contract), but I am leaning more towards 2025, and I believe that Charles at RBR is a real, serious possibility in 2025. Let me explain why.

First, Checo still has a contract through 2024 and while Red Bull aren't always great with honouring contracts, I think the recent popularity and love they've witnessed first-hand for Checo in Texas and Mexico might change their mind on letting him go early. Ultimately, Red Bull Racing is marketing for Red Bull, and Checo obviously brings in sales in North America, and them mistreating Checo might lead to a sales dip in that region. This is why I think, despite the media frenzy, RBR are highly unlikely to drop Checo for 2024. There is no way that RBR is renewing Checo's contract, but at least he can see it out and they can part ways without much damage to either of them at the end of the F1 2024 Season.

Charles's current contract with Ferrari is also up at the end of the 2024 season. Again, even though 2023 has been absolute dogshit for Charles and Ferrari, I don't see that contract ending early. For one, Charles has apparently been promised that the 2024 car will be developed according to his needs and preferences, and it is ridiculous to leave a team who has made you that promise, even if that team is as flakey as Ferrari. I think Charles is waiting to see if the team does change in 2024 before he pushes for contract renewal. It's important to note here that contrary to popular opinion, I believe the ball is completely in Charles's court here when it comes to renewal. He is the Ferrari golden prince, he is Ferrari in a way that no driver really ever has been before, I think it was evident in Monza this year most of all. Carlos drives for Ferrari, and Charles is Ferrari and you could see it in the way that the tifosi treated them. They love Carlos, they adore and worship Charles. This is how Charles managed to convince them to build a car for him in 2024, and it's how I believe Charles is putting off the contract negotiations. This is a key point. Carlos's extended media team and family have complained several times about Carlos not being able to begin contract negotiations because of Charles in some way and Ferrari unwilling to negotiate with Carlos until they've settled Charles (I think this is due to the fact that they only intend to keep one of them and they'd like it to be Charles, but that's an essay for another day). So Charles has himself in a position where he doesn't have to commit to the team unless he sees that it is going to grow in the way he wants it to.

To quote Charles, "I view it in a way that whenever I won’t believe in the project anymore, that probably will be the time when I’ll have to go away. Because it’s in these kinds of situations that you don’t get the best out of yourself, that you don’t help the team as much as it needs to be helped. But this is definitely not the case at the moment. I believe in the project as much as I’ve ever believed in the project before. Especially since Fred arrived. So for now it’s clear. Then it’s also clear that I want to win. But I believe in this project and I’m sure we are working in the right direction.”

So maybe 2024 happens and Ferrari brings a championship-contender car, in which case Charles signs with Ferrari, they get rid of Carlos and probably bring in Alex Albon as a n2.

But I'm not interested in that outcome, I'm interested in what is (in my mind anyway) the far more likely outcome, sheerly due to money and Ferrari internal politics (which again, whole other essay!) which is that nothing really changes for the better at Ferrari. Maybe Charles gets a win by sheer luck and a slightly better car, but overall the strategy continues to not favour him, and Charles in general loses faith in what he refers to as the project. And we know from Charles himself that when this happens, this is when he goes away.

So I've presented an argument for why Red Bull are going to let Checo see out his contract, I've presented a strong possibility for why Charles might be looking to leave Ferrari at the end of 2024. Now I'm going to try and convince you of why out of all the options it'll be Charles joining Red Bull.

First of all, from Charles's point of view regarding teams. I'm going to rule out Alpha Tauri, Haas, Williams, Alfa Romeo, and Alpine, either because they're junior teams or I don't see them willing to fork over huge amounts of money to get Charles onboard. This leaves Mercedes, McLaren, Aston Martin, and Red Bull.

Out of all the non RBR options, I'd say that Mercedes is the most likely, but both their drivers are signed until 2025. There is always a possibility that Lewis Hamilton decides its time to leave the sport and buys himself out of his own contract, but I think that's not likely to happen next year.

Similar to Mercedes, both McLaren drivers are signed until at least 2025 and both look likely to honour that contract. Red Bull have tried to poach Lando multiple times, and Lando doesn't seem too keen on it yet, so we can assume that he intends to at least see his current contract out. Aston Martin is slightly trickier because I see them as being willing to fork over the millions needed to get Charles Leclerc to drive for them, but on the other hand they don't look close to producing a championship car, and Charles Leclerc is not switching away from Ferrari to not win a championship.

So, this leaves RBR as Charles's best destination for 2025 were he to leave Ferrari. Not only do they have a seat opening up, but they also have shown themselves capable of constructing recent championship-winning cars, and outclass every other team almost every weekend on strategy at the moment. Now that we've established that Charles's team of choice would be RBR, the final point of the argument has to be establishing why Charles would be RBR's driver of choice over let's say, Lando or Daniel.

To me the answer is simple, as so eloquently illustrated by my great friend and scholar Nat (@tsarinablogs) in her The PR of Lestappen in 2023 Essay (also known as Lestappen Gate 2023), Charles is not just good at PR, he's brilliant, and Red Bull isn't a racing company, it's a marketing venture. Having Charles on board would be their greatest asset and Charles has done much to make himself desirable, from being personable in almost all fan interactions to building a solid digital following, to being sometimes sneaky and subliminal with his sponsorship messaging (him always putting on APM Monaco immediately after a race, even before the podium and interviews, hell even Charles and Privateplanegate yesterday), to signing with a literal US entertainment agency. I cannot stress enough how the timing of the WME signing is not accidental, this is Charles making himself be seen as a highly desirable PR asset. Charles has the second highest following on social media out of any current driver, second to only 7 TIME WDC WINNER LEWIS HAMILTON. That sort of audience, and the kind of exposure it can bring to your team and your brand is insane.

Also, as an addendum to Nat's essay using something she herself brought up to me yesterday: any PR for RBR is good PR because it means that Red Bull as a concept is sticking around in people's heads, which means they're more likely to notice and buy the drinks off the shelves. Extrapolating from this we can see that Red Bull signing Charles would ultimately be better marketing than Red Bull signing Lando just because of the absolute uproar it would cause. Whether you think that Red Bull saved Charles from Ferrari, or Charles betrayed Ferrari for Red Bull, or Charles saved himself from Ferrari, or Red Bull as the Big Evil Team poached the Prince of Ferrari, there's a compelling narrative in there and people will talk about it for years to come.

Finally, not to talk about the driving aspect of motorsports, but Charles is the best fit for Red Bull driving-wise as well. Him and Max have spoken in the past about how they both prefer very similar types of car (ie. strong oversteer, borderline undriveable to anyone else) which would make car development much easier for the team. Christian Horner has also been pretty candid about wanting two n1 drivers à la Lewis and Nico (although without the toxicity), and whether you believe that Charles matches Max in equal machinery or not, Charles's racing record is a lot stronger than Lando's or Dan's (the two other possible competitors for the RBR seat). Charles fits the bill, driver-profile-wise, of the complement to Max that Christian Horner is looking for.

So, long story short, I am watching Ferrari VERY closely these next few months. If the SF-24 doesn't make Charles happy, I am going to make a bold claim that we will see Charles Leclerc driving for Red Bull in 2025.

[formulafang1rl]

God, I love him so much 🤣 never shy to speak his mind

Making sure everybody knows it was Ferrari’s fault and not his boyfriend Charles'

[leclerking]

[pressradio]

We all were: we don’t want our golden boy be second driver for Max

But tell me, tell me, what’s the point to be in the team when this fucking team makes you second driver to Sainz when you were on pole. FFS WHAT’S THE POINT?????????????????

[cupidskissx]

It’s after a qualifying like that which reminds us how toxic Ferrari is.

We are love bombed with glorious, restorative leatappen content only for it to, inevitably, be torn away from us.

We hit rock bottom then we are reborn again.

I suppose some do say life is cyclical… 🙃

[regrettablytifosi]

guys i know it's early to catastrophise but sainz just said this about the 2024 car:

and it reminded me of this tweet that charles liked...

and guys i'm scared

[ladymarvel27]

The way he nods quickly

Then says no

Nods rapidly:

Says no:

Then smiles cheekily:

[multif1fan]

My blood is boiling, Just kill me at this point, when carlos is first they do everything to make sure he gets the best result, but when it came to Charles they completely ruined his race😭

[lestappenforever]

Somebody please get Charles and Carlos the FUCK away from Ferrari.

What the ever-living hell is wrong with that team.

Answer: It's everything.

[valyrfia]

the best possible outcome for this is charles delaying the contract negotiations till next season summer break to see if ferrari is loyal to him or at least listening to him

Yes, completely agree. As I outlined here, I think Charles is and has been stalling negotiations. I'm not entirely sure whether he's been stalling them for a while (ie. since the summer) or whether this is a recent development with the way this season has gone after the summer break, (considering when there were rumours of a 35 million € per year 5 year contract floating around in August Charles said he wish they were true). Either way, it seems these articles today about Ferrari trying to pursue a contract extension with Charles are a deliberate leak by Ferrari to try and force Charles to the negotiating table, and put the spotlight on Charles and his contract. Although, if that's the case, I reckon it's backfired a little bit as the overwhelming public response to those articles has been that Charles should go nowhere near a new contract with those clowns.

This is absolutely dire for Ferrari. As my colleagues and I have pointed out on #Lestappen Gate 2023, that second Red Bull seat is being nicely lined up for Charles. I think it's pretty obvious at this point that he's Red Bull's first choice to fill that seat in 2025 . Ever since Monza, when no contract extension materialised (which was the first sign that something was off between Charles and Ferrari), Red Bull have: said they intend to sign two number one drivers (drastically changing their narrative from earlier in the year) with Max specifically saying he thinks him and Charles could be teammates (also changing his narrative from earlier in the year), had Charles's onboards up at at least two races alongside their actual signed drivers (Mexico and Brazil GPs). This doesn't even begin to cover the whole PR net that they've managed to weave, from the increase in Max and Charles content (driven largely by the RBR social medias! F1 and Ferrari social media have contributed, but this is largely reactionary), to Christian greeting Charles in front of the press and Netflix in Brazil. This past month has been a pitch by Red Bull to try and convince both Charles and the general public that Charles should fill that seat in 2025. And it's largely worked on the general public! It hasn't quite filtered through to commentators yet, but the idea of Charles in a Red Bull is all over social media and in Ferrari replies, I can confidently say that there's a zero chance that Charles's hasn't seen it. The last great question is whether the pitch has worked on him or not.

In a way, we're in a very different situation to a month ago, when everyone was full of bravado and pretending like they didn't really care/everything was fine. The parties involved are beginning to show their hands now–Ferrari is falling apart at the seams and can barely be called a race team anymore and yet is desperate to not lose Charles, Charles is refusing to enter proper contract negotiations and is threatening to leave unless Ferrari gets its shit together in an extremely short timeframe, and Red Bull is eagerly lurking and hitting Charles with constant reminders in their press and race reports that he is a champion and deserves better. The game is a lot more transparent now, but as a consequence just got a whole lot messier.

As a footnote as well, we haven't really touched on the Carlos situation much and that really requires a whole separate analysis, but it makes things even messier for Ferrari. It's quite obvious that they won't re-sign both Carlos and Charles and are not entering negotiations with Carlos until Charles is sorted (as semi-confirmed by the Sainz family's shady twitter activities). With Charles stalling negotiations like this, Ferrari could end up in a situation where they lose both Charles and Carlos.

So my main take away from this is that I definitely do not want to be Fred Vasseur at this instance.

[theadderalltoyourstiles]

I was hoping i wouldn't have to say this but with what I'm seeing rn .... You know how that saying goes , you can take away the car from the team but you can't take away the team from the car .

[leclerking]

put ferrari under witness protection im out to get them

[justwait-sunshine]

ik its gonna upset some people but im getting major silverstone 2022 vibes from today...