#the southron ambitions bloc

[goodqueenaly]

I fell into a rabbit hole of your metas and it's great stuff! But while reading your bits over the Southern Bloc I couldnt help notice something. In Dance(ithink) Barbrey Dustin speaks to Theon about her distrusts for the maesters and insuates that Rickard's Southron ambitions were groomed by the maester of that time. I doubt that GRRM wrote that for no reason, and in the your work I don't see any mention of the Maesters 1/2

(tbh I really wouldn't be surprised if we don't get to see anything substantial on the Maester conspiracy because of time and pacing in two books thanks to GrRm great scheduling bbtp) but do you think the Maesters have any important part on the Southron Bloc plans? Because if so, what would have been their greater goal?

P.S. and another thing! Rickard Starks ambition level is unusual in most of the historical Starks throughout the Targaryen dynasty. Two sons and a daughter connected to land beyond the Neck? I know you mentioned why Rickard would benefit from these relationships, but why did he think of this in The first place? Why did he think it was better to go against the Targaryens when they hadn't bothered with the North much at that point?

P.S. pt2: I really think it was the Maesters that low-key were pushing, for something, and they really needed to cinch Rickard in. Except that Dragons and magic no longer seem to exist, so why continue to erode the Targaryens away(their anti Martell agenda checks out, at least) even if Aegon IV had done what he wanted to do it's not like the Maesters would suffer or benefit either? Sorry, I accidently put myself in the rabbit hole. It's dark here. Bye

The short answer is that I really don't believe in any maester conspiracy explanation for the (as yet theorized) southron ambitions power bloc. I think that there are (again, potential) explanations for why Rickard Stark (and, by extension, Jon Arryn and Hoster Tully) acted as they did which are not dependent on, or even really explained by, a united conspiracy of maesters puppeteering various paramount lords. I am not saying there has never been any greater schemes among maesters ever, only that I believe this specific group of marital and fostering alliances was the product of the aristocratic men involved rather than their maesters.

Number one, I think Barbrey Dustin's comments regarding maesters should be taken with a heavy grain of salt. I don't mean that Barbrey is stupid, far from it, but rather that Barbrey is a woman with very specific grievances and very specific sources of blame for those grievances. Because Barbrey believes that she loved Brandon and that Brandon loved her, she needs a way to explain the failure of her romantic desires that does not blame either herself or Rickard and Brandon Stark (since, after all, Barbrey's goal was to become a Stark herself). This is, after all, the same Barbrey who asserts that Brandon never wanted to marry Catelyn, despite the fact that Brandon fought a duel with (and nearly killed) the person who challenged him for Catelyn's hand and explicitly affirmed his commitment to Catelyn, to Catelyn, before he left for King's Landing. Accordingly, villainizing Rickard's old maester (who was both a foreigner - that is, not a northerner - and a bastard, with all the accompanying prejudice there) and Catelyn Tully (another foreigner to the North) allows Barbrey to create a narrative in which she, Brandon, and Rickard did no wrong and naturally (to her) untrustworthy people can serve as scapegoats instead. Barbrey is a smart and canny woman, but she is as much subject to bias and prejudice as any other character, and given those very apparent biases I am reluctant to simply accept what Barbrey says about maesters as true.

Now, could there be a secondary reason the author included this perspective from Barbrey? Just as the story Godric Borrell tells of the fisherman's daughter and the story Edric Dayne tells of Wylla the wet nurse are both (almost certainly) objectively wrong accounts which nevertheless support the true proposition that there is a greater mystery to be revealed about Jon Snow's mother, so perhaps Barbrey Dustin's antipathy toward maesters is wrongly justified but intended to catch readers' attention to a more general point. Perhaps the author wants to suggest here that there is something a bit underhanded happening with some maesters, just not politically - that is, that individual historical maesters probably helped finish off the Targaryen dragons, and that few modern maesters recognize the potency (and danger) of magic (an attitude which will be immediately, and fatally, undone when Euron shows up to take over Oldtown).

I think it is also important to contextualize Rickard in his time and place. Certainly, it was the case that few (although some) Starks had married outside the North, at least so far as we have the Stark family tree - which, by the way, was as much true for a family like the Lannisters (whose marriages from Damon Lannister through the present day were almost exclusively with other Westerlands Houses), and probably as much true for families like the Tullys and Arryns as well - but it was also very unusual, indeed virtually unique, for all the senior commanders of Westeros to meet in a single space to war against a foreign invading army, which is exactly what happened during the War of the Ninepenny Kings - a war in which RIckard almost certainly served as Warden of the North. This was the perfect opportunity for Rickard to meet his fellow Warden Jon Arryn, as well as senior Riverlands commanders Hoster and Brynden Tully - and if they may not have finalized their entire geopolitical strategy and ambition in that moment (which would have been impossible to do anyway, given that Robert Baratheon, the Stark boys, and the Tully girls did not then exist), they certainly had the chance to discuss their opinions on the current state of the kingdom and build the foundations of their allegiance and mutual regard for one another.

And indeed, it's specifically not the case that the Targaryens "hadn't really bothered with the North much at that point" - quite the opposite, I think Targaryen action and inaction toward the North may have been a major source of grievance that motivated Rickard's participation in this alliance bloc. Remember that when the North needed help during the reign of Aerys I - when Dagon Greyjoy decided to make the west coast of Westeros his playground for pillaging and reaving - the Iron Throne specifically, consciously did nothing. That purposeful inaction directly betrayed part of the feudal promise enshrined when the Targaryen kingdom was formed: in return for the homage and and military service promised by the Iron Throne’s vassals, the Iron Throne agreed to protect those vassal families when they could not protect themselves - when, in fact, the realm itself was threatened. If the Iron Throne had probably (through Maekar) eventually intervened to solve the Dagon problem, Rickard’s great-grandfather Beron and his sons had learned the hard way that the Iron Throne’s commitment to its protective obligations was at best dependent on the personality of the monarch on the throne (and/or the monarch’s chief advisor). That’s not a lesson that I think Rickard - who was ruling barely half a century later - would necessarily have forgotten, or not considered in his political decisions and ambitions. If the Iron Throne ignored its individual vassals' plight without compunction, perhaps the way to make the dynasty listen - to ensure the Dagon problem could not happen again, in other words - was to unite as a bloc with other great Houses, the better to force the dynasty's notice.

Nor might the Starks have appreciated the opposite end of the Targaryens’ exercise of royal power - that is, under Aegon V, whose stated goal as king was to curtail lordly power by "grant[ing] rights and protections to the commons that they had never known before". It is unclear as yet how the Starks felt about Aegon V's program of reforms, yet it is certainly the case that unidentified other lords deeply resented the king's actions, even going so far as to describe him as "a bloodyhanded tyrant intent on depriving us of our gods-given rights and liberties". Indeed, this had not been the first time the Targaryens had intervened in the North to remove traditional privileges of the Starks and their vassals, since under Jaehaerys I the crown had both forced Winterfell to donate lands of its vassals to the Night's Watch and removed the right to the first night (across the continent, to be sure, but even Barth specifically noted at the time that "some lords [would] surely grumble at this [i.e. the end to the first night], especially in the North"); moreover, at least the first of those royal decisions seems to have caused deep resentment among some of the Starks. It's possible, therefore, that Rickard (who may have come into his lordship toward the end of Aegon's reign) agreed that the crown could not simply (metaphorically speaking) stomp into the North and start making demands on those rights which Aegon I had long ago promised to protect.

All of this, I think, may have culminated in an expression of frustration when the various Westerosi commanders met during the War of the Ninepenny Kings. If the Iron Throne had failed to uphold its end of the feudal bargain, in the eyes of these lords, it was now nevertheless demanding that its vassals still provide theirs - fighting for the crown at the summons of the king, to keep the king on the Iron Throne against the ambitions of a foreign challenger. For the first time, the Targaryen dynasty had left a major war entirely to the execution of its vassals, expecting that those families whose ancestors had bent the knee to the Targaryens would lead the charge against the Blackfyre forces (while the sickly king retired in the capital and his young heir served as a mere squire). Why, men like Rickard, Jon, Hoster, and Brynden might have wondered, were they giving their blood and sweat - and the blood and sweat of their vassals in turn - for a dynasty which had decided that the feudal bargain meant little or nothing when it came to the Targaryens' responsibilities? If once the answer had been dragons, that answer was no longer true over a century after the death of the last dragon; I think the Starks, Tullys, and Arryns may have realized that, with the balance of power irrevocably (or so they thought) shifted, now was the time to ally together, the better to rewrite the feudal playbook in a way which better recognized their power and authority.

Conversely, and to the point you made, I do not see any reason why the maesters (assuming all maesters would even act for a single purpose, which I think is simply wrong) would have any desire to encourage these specific marriage and fostering arrangements. Even if we start with the idea that "the Maesters ... were pushing, pushing, for something, and they really needed to cinch Rickard in", what exactly was the end goal here? As you yourself note, it could not have been the extinction of the dragons (which had not existed for almost 150 years by this point), and there seems to have been no animosity on a political level between the Citadel and the Targaryen dynasty, certainly not by this time (indeed, the Citadel's representative enjoyed a place at the right hand of the monarch, as Grand Maester).

[warsofasoiaf]

This might be a bit of an unfair question due to the widespread ramifications, but what if Jamie was born but no Cersei (in that Joanna Lannister was pregnant but was only pregnant with Jamie and not Cersei)? In this "what if?" Cersei is never born but Tyrion still is.

What impacts does a Cersei-less universe have on Jamie?

Yeah, this is a huge question, because Cersei factors not just in Jaime's life, but in the overall strategy of House Lannister.

The biggest influence is that Jaime no longer has the toxic influence of Cersei, and their toxic co-dependent relationship, in his life. But what does that mean for Jaime? How does Jaime develop in regards to relationships and love without Cersei in his life? This isn't just something to brush off, this is something that will significantly factor into how he approaches the world and how he relates with other people. Does he develop healthy relationships with other people outside of Cersei's narcissistic need of self-reflection? Or is the toxic parenting of Tywin mean that Jaime replicates Tywin's obsessive need to demonstrate Lannister supremacy?

Without Cersei, Tywin cannot attempt to marry into the royal family, and thus, Jaime's marriage-making becomes more pronounced. Joanna might try to marry Elia to Jaime, to solidify a connection, and it's not a bad match from Jaime's point of view. But Tywin also tried to marry Jaime to Lysa and backdoor his way into the Southron Ambitions cabal. Jaime doesn't join the Kingsguard without Cersei, and so it's entirely possible that Tywin has a free hand in Robert's Rebellion without Jaime as a hostage. He's not liable to side with Aerys, given his repeated snubs and humiliations, but a Jaime married to Lysa means Tywin is in from the get-go. If he's in the rebel braintrust, he advises Rickard to rebel immediately, which might turn the Rebellion into an entirely different light. Alternatively, if Jaime and Elia are wed, that makes the Lannister-Martell bloc an attractive source of power for both factions, who likely engage in some horse-trading for support. That in turn means Jaime can be anything from a prominent rebel figure head and lieutenant, leading Westerlander troops on Tywin's behalf and "covering himself in glory," or it might mean that he's a loyalist captain who gets captured or killed at the Trident.

And that's before you even get into the main plot. Lannisters that are with Southron Ambitions from the get-go are trusted, but also there's no opportunity for Tywin to murder Rhaegar's brood. Who does Rhaegar even marry in this scenario? As you see, it goes off the rails pretty fast.

Thanks for the question, Bruin.

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King

[moonlitgleek]

Do the southern ambitions happen if Aerys is less Aerion Brightflame and more Baelor the Blessed or Rhaegal?

Erm, it isn’t like Baelor the Blessed or Rhaegal didn’t also come with their own set of problems that could have also spurred the coalition to form. In fact, it’s speculated that the seeds of what we call the Southron Ambitions coalition could be found in the reign of Aerys I and Aegon V, neither of whom were particularly violent or mentally unstable. So madness isn’t necessarily the only motivation for the alliance to happen.

That said, it is a bit unclear if the SA would have formed if Aerys was not mad. We still lack a great deal of context about the Southron Ambitions coalition so it’s difficult to say with any degree of certainty, though I’ve previously went with the assumption that it would still happen even without Aerys growing mad in some au scenarios. But we really don’t know if the bloc formed specifically in response to Aerys or if the main architectures of it always had the plan to form an alliance. On one hand, there is plenty of reasons to find in Targaryen history pre-Aerys that could have easily inspired the bloc to form, some pretty recent like Aegon V’s attempt to curtail the traditional liberties enjoyed by the nobility in favor of the smallfolk, and “the madness” at Summerhall that left Westeros teetering on the edge of instability with royal succession nearing criticality. Too, the crown had not too long ago compromised the feudal contract in Aerys I’s reign and abandoned its vassals, leaving the Starks and the Lannisters to fend for themselves against Dagon Greyjoy’s attacks, all while Bloodraven ran an absolute monarchy and created problems that only helped assist the Blackfyre threat to continue as nobles dissatisfied with royal inaction and abandon of its feudal obligation and the Hand’s police state sought an alternative. So it’s not a surprise that the War of the Ninepenny Kings - which framed the power shift from the Iron Throne (which was represented in the field by only young prince Aerys) to the nobility whose levies rebelled the Band of Nine - engendered a cross-kingdom alliance that is speculated to have had the goal of protecting the lords against similar encroachments on their rights or abandonment from the crown.

On the other hand, while the lords of the SA coalition have met during the War of the Ninepenny Kings which marked several friendships being forged between people from all over the realm as per GRRM, the first visible sign of the forming of the coalition happened around 271 when Ned Stark and Robert Baratheon started their fostering at the Eyrie which was later supported by Brandon’s betrothal to Catelyn in 276. Looking at the timeline, it is possible that the senior statesmen of the coalition had noticed a certain volatility in Aerys that spurred them to close ranks. Rickard Stark first visited King’s Landing in 264 where Aerys came up with one of his fanciful plans to build a new Wall and claim the lands between the two Walls. While not necessarily a sign of madness, Aerys might have seemed prone to flights of fancy which have historically proven to be disastrous. More concerning, perhaps, was his accusation of Rhaella of infidelity and confinement of her to Maegor’s Holdfast in 270 which would certainly be enough to trouble the lords of the SA, not only because of the echoes of Aegon the Unworthy’s own accusation of Naerys which ultimately led to a lot of grief for Westeros, but because it might have cast doubt on his mental instability if he randomly decided that his wife’s fertility troubles were totally a result of her unfaithfulness. In 274, Aerys delivered a very convincing demonstration of his growing paranoia when he first beheaded Prince Jaehaerys’ wetnurse when the baby prince died then had his mistress and her family tortured to death for the same crime, followed by publicly burning Viserys’ baby gifts in 276 because he feared they might be cursed. So it certainly could be argued that Aerys’ growing madness did spark the formation of the SA or at least greatly influenced it. The political landscape was turbulent enough for them to seek safety measures against the crown. They certainly weren’t the only cross-kingdom alliance in the works, as shown by the agreement between the Princess of Dorne and Joanna Lannister to betroth their children.

However, it could be argued that this alliance was also affected by Aerys and Rhaella’s childbearing trouble and how that left Targaryen succession - and by association Westeros - in an uncertain position. By 271, the year of Ned’s fostering, it had been 12 years since Rhaegar’s birth, so Westeros was one bookish unmartial 12-year-old boy away from a succession crisis. The introduction of Robert Baratheon into the bloc - when Steffon Baratheon’s involvement in the SA scheming remains unclear,since he wasn’t anti-Aerys at least publicly, though who knows about privately - could have been a guarantee against a possible succession crisis and an attempt from the senior statesmen to induce the next-in-line to their teachings. That is a motive that is not dependent on Aerys’ mental health and that would probably remain true even if Aerys was not mad.

Bottom line is, the SA players did have sufficient motivation in Aerys’ increasingly erratic behavior to form their alliance which is probably also what spurred the thwarted Lannister-Martell alliance. But the bloc might have still formed regardless of Aerys’ personality, whether due to the uncertainty in royal succession which typically engenders political instability or due to the repeated encroachments on lordly privileges by previous Targaryen monarchs that the nobles wanted a guarantee against. We simply don’t have enough information to be sure.

[turtle-paced]

Could Rhaegar pull a Littlefinger and challenge Robert for Lyanna's hand? Then he could take her as mistress or second wife or whatever. Wouldn't that be a cleaner way to solve the issue? Robert couldn't rebel because of honor and stuff. And Dorne couldn't rebel when Elia's in King's Landing. Rickard Stark might find giving his daughter to the crown prince is much more beneficial than the lord of Stormlands too.

That, I think, would be a very bad idea. Sorry, anon.

First, a duel against Robert Baratheon in his prime? That seems like a very quick way for Rhaegar to get dead. At best it’s a risky prospect.

Second, even if the Martells weren’t in a position to rebel, that doesn’t mean they wouldn’t be pissed. That’s a good way for Rhaegar to introduce tension in his immediate family, which, he believes, is necessary for world-saving purposes.

Third, Rickard may not find it more advantageous to marry Lyanna to Rhaegar as a second wife, much less give his blessing to her position as a royal mistress. He’d already set up the match with Robert, as part of what looks like a whole suite of dynastic arrangements intended to counter the royal bloc. With that match, the next generation of Baratheons would have Stark blood. They’d hold Storm’s End and the Stormlands. Whereas Lyanna’s hypothetical children with Rhaegar might not get anything, and Rickard’s advantage in that match would last only as long as Lyanna held a proven-fickle Rhaegar’s attention.

Finally, it doesn’t solve the problem of Aerys. Rhaegar’s actions at the start of the Rebellion looked bad, were bad, and kicked off a lot of the trouble. But the Southron Ambitions set of alliances look and date to concerns about Aerys, and Aerys’ own actions also did a whoooooole lot to send the Targaryen political situation to hell in a handbasket. What happens if Aerys decides that Robert accepting the duel is treason?

[racefortheironthrone]

Let's say Rhaegar was able to call a Great Council at Harrenhal? What would happen? Would he have been able to declare a regency or would this have just resulted in a civil war between Aerys II and Rhaegar?

That’s a great question!

So I’ve talked a bit about the topic here, but it can’t hurt to set out my thoughts more specifically.

I would argue that said Great Council would be extremely tense and conflictual: 

Rhaegar has a pretty significant base of support, although it’s deeper than it is wide, mostly focused on the support from “younger men at court” and the Dornish, whom Rhaegar could lose if he pursues the same path with Lyanna as OTL. 

Aerys’ supporters are not numerous (mostly just Crownlanders like Chelsted, Staunton, and Velaryon), but they’re dug in and their fear of losing power is radicalizing them, leading to daft proposals like banning tourneys or trying to disinherit the Crown Prince so they can rule through a Regency Council.

The Southron Ambitions bloc is large, powerful, and has no vested interests in either side. They’re potentially the swing vote at a Great Council, although we know bafflingly little about what their objectives really were which makes it hard to say whose side they would take. 

Ditto, Tywin Lannister is prowling around the edges looking to see who’s going to win, probably trying to get Jaime’s nomination as Kingsguard reversed on the grounds of the king’s mental infirmity or get Cersei married to Rhaegar if Elia dies in childbirth.

And then you have real wild cards like the Tyrells and the Reacherlords and the Iron Islands, who are really out there in the wind with nothing more than a hunger for royal favor in the case of the former. 

Add onto all this the potential complications of the Tourney itself, Aerys’ physical appearance and unsettling behavior, and a lot of lords who wouldn’t have been sounded out yet having to wrestle with a sudden political crisis, and it could go any number of ways:

Reagar becomes King. Now, there’s a couple ways this could happen: it’s possible that Rhaegar’s chivalric qualities makes everyone in the audience starry-eyed and he’s lifted on their shoulders and carries the day.

to my eyes, the most likely path for him to become king is to get the Southron Ambitions bloc and a couple others on his side, which is going to require some significant concessions. Reformed Small Council? Permanent Great Council? Charter of Liberties? Depends on who wants what, really.

Regency Council! This is something of a middle-ground option. Either the majority is sufficiently disturbed by Aerys’ behavior but also unwilling to directly replace a sitting king (similar to how Parliament reacted to Henry VI’s breakdowns) and they decide to cut the difference - which honestly would just displace the tensions within the Great Council into the Regency Council, but it’s not like buck-passing is unknown in politics - or the Aerys loyalists manage to get a majority for Viserys as a “non-controversial option,” but I think that’s less likely. 

Someone else becomes King. As I suggested above, I think it’s a real outside shot that the small coterie of Aerys loyalists are going to get the Great Council to agree to disinherit a popular warrior-poet with children of his own in favor of a child king in a time of crisis. For one thing, House Martell is not going to stand for seeing Rhaenys and the once-and-future Aegon disinherited, so this is an option with a lot of built-in potential for conflict. 

Civil War! This is more likely than one thinks. Let’s say the Small Council get to Harrenhal and they panic even more than OTL; they get Aerys’ signature onto documents disinheriting the Crown Prince and declaring him a rebel and usurper, instating Viserys in his place, declaring it illegal for a Great Council to be called without the King’s wishes or for them to depose a King under any circumstances. (I don’t imagine this base of support will be huge, but I imagine there will be enough traditionalist “king’s men” out there who might not like what’s happening but can’t see themselves deposing a king to cause chaos.) Meanwhile, Rhaegar’s people are screaming that the king’s gone mad and is ruled by evil councilors, there’s been a coup that violates all the laws and customs of Westeros, and that all good and loyal subjects will stand up for the rights of the heroic Prince Rhaegar and his children. (This base will tend more to the Dornish and the popular, especially once Prince Aegon is born.) And then there’s no less than six Great Houses with no firm commitments either way, looking to get what they can grab. And then all of a sudden, heated rhetoric sparks a clash between armed men and everyone’s calling for their banners. 

It could get very ugly, very quickly. 

[nobodysuspectsthebutterfly]

Hi! I was wondering - was Steffon involved at all in Robert and Lyanna's betrothal, or was that not something that happened until after he died? (Or is there enough info to really say?) Thanks!

I’m afraid we don’t really know. Well– we do know that Steffon died in 278 AC, when Robert was 16 and Lyanna was 11 or 12. That age is “old enough for a betrothal”, per Robert and Catelyn. So it is possible that Steffon was part of the betrothal negotiations before he set off to the Free Cities on his doomed bride-search for Rhaegar.

On the other hand, the argument Ned and Lyanna had about Robert’s bastard Mya Stone – which happened the night Rickard promised her to Robert – must have taken place in or after 279 AC, when Mya was born. So that suggests that it was only Robert involved, not his father… though it’s still possible Steffon started the betrothal negotiations, but Robert concluded them.

The basic question is, how much was Steffon involved in the possible “Southron Ambitions” plot? Did he have any worries about Aerys’s growing madness, enough to form a bloc with the other great lords of Westeros? Or was he entirely loyal to his cousin, his close friend from when they were pages together in the court of Aegon V and squires together during the War of the Ninepenny Kings, the king who would have made him his Hand when he returned from the Free Cities? The fact that Steffon died trying to fulfill Aerys’s commands does suggest he was loyal, and thus he wouldn’t have been part of the SA bloc. It may be that even if he started the negotiations of Robert and Lyanna’s betrothal, it could have been for general social advantage, not to team with the Starks against Aerys. However, the fact that Steffon sent Robert to foster with his war buddy Jon Arryn, not long after bringing him to court (to find that Aerys had cut himself on the throne again and couldn’t rule that day), instead of sending him to KL as a page like he had been, and didn’t send Stannis anywhere, leads many to wonder if Steffon was worried about putting his sons too close to Aerys’s madness, and thus he was part of the SA bloc – and therefore he would have been involved in betrothing Robert to Lyanna, and for a specific purpose.

So, like I said, we just don’t know. We’ll have to see if GRRM tells us anything more – first off, if there even was a Southron Ambitions plot or if we’ve just been speculating based on too-paranoid rambings; secondly, clarification on Lyanna’s timeline, as well as Steffon’s. Ah well, we can only hope…

[lyannas]

why do you think lyanna was never proposed as a match for jaime lannister? as far as southron ambitions go, a lannister match seems more ambitious than a baratheon one and just from a political standpoint it would make more sense for the lannisters than a martell match (and a lysa tully one since technically lyanna is the eldest daughter). and they’re a similar age so it just makes sense for it to be considered at least imo

I think it all boils down to Rickard’s perception of Tywin Lannister, either not wanting him as a partner or expecting to be rejected outright. Tywin already had a reputation for ruthlessness with his actions towards the Tarbecks and the Reynes, as well as the punishment he wrought upon his father’s mistress after his father died. Coupled with once being Hand to Aerys, refusing to marry Cersei to anyone but Rhaegar (and then refusing to marry her off even after Rhaegar was off the market), perhaps Rickard doubted Tywin’s loyalty to him if swayed to his side and/or feared his ambition. Even with Tywin’s personal grievances against Aerys, Tywin was not one known for friendliness or general trustworthiness.

On the other side, Tywin may not have seen a northern alliance as a useful one, or a war against the Crown as a safe move. The North is far removed from the politics he’s involved in and is removed geographically. Then as we later see during the course of the war, Tywin does not involve himself until literally the last minute, indicating that he was simply waiting it out to see who the clear winner was before making his move.

Then there are Rickard’s own motives to take into account. He was developing a power bloc of nobles who were able and prepared to dethrone Aerys. Tywin, who was once Aerys’s close friend, would not be the safest pick. To approach him with a plan of war against Aerys would have been a risk Rickard was wise not to take. With Tywin once having been Aerys’s friend, he might have leaked such information immediately to earn himself royal favor. Robert was an especially good pick because he had no significant royalist influence, young, able-bodied, a skilled warrior, and the Lord of Storm’s End, having already come into his birthright (whereas Jaime was still merely an heir). His father, who had been a friend of Aerys’s, had died when he was young, he was close friends with Ned, and he looked to Jon Arryn as a foster father. Jon Arryn was receptive to and possibly even an architect of Rickard’s “southron ambitions”, he had both Ned and Robert under his care (while the two were becoming close and fast friends), and his loyalty to his foster sons was genuine.

Under such circumstances, when the choice is between Robert and Jaime, the winner is clear. Lannister gold means nothing if there is no loyalty attached, and I am certain that Rickard knew that Tywin’s loyalty would be hard bought and difficult to keep, whereas Robert could be easily swayed and kept to his side.

In any case, the unlikely match between Jaime and Lyanna would have disappeared into thin air upon Jaime’s induction into the Kingsguard, which would have been an entirely different mess.

[joannalannister]

How involved, if at all involved, do you think The Unnamed Princess of Dorne was in the Southron Ambitions plot, and broader Westerosi politics at that time?

Hi! Well, I first have to point out that we don’t know for certain whether the Southron Ambitions Plan (SAP) was the real deal. It’s still a theory, although it’s a theory I firmly believe in.

I talk about this in detail in my tag for #southron ambitions, but I think the point of the SAP was to limit Targaryen power / decrease the power of the cental government, while simultaneously increasing the power of the Great Lords through a permanent Great Council. 

And at the time when Joanna and the Princess were concocting a Lannister-Martell alliance, Tywin wanted Cersei to marry Rhaegar. Tywin wanted (the power behind) the Iron Throne to remain strong at this point, with Rhaegar and Cersei as King and Queen. (And I believe Joanna was in accord with that.) So I don’t think the proposed Jaime/Elia match had anything to do with Southron Ambitions. I think that was more about the Princess trying to find a strong ally for Dorne, while the Lannisters were looking for the most prestigious match possible. (Elia was the only unwed princess in Westeros at the time.) I’ve discussed these ideas before as “Parallel Southron Ambitions” because I think everybody’s starting to move against an increasingly unstable Aerys at this time, but not everyone is working together to accomplish this goal. 

But did the Princess later join up with Jon Arryn, Rickard Stark, and Hoster Tully? tbh I don’t think so? 

The Arryn-Stark-Tully-(deceased)Baratheon alliance to me seemed borne out of the desires of a few old war comrades not to let the Targ follies that led to things like the War of the Ninepenny Kings happen again, whereas I just don’t get the feeling that the Princess was motivated by a desire to oust Aerys. After Tywin rejected Elia, she seems to have withdrawn from the game for a time; Elia had no betrothal for the 6 years from 273 to 279, so it’s like the Unnamed Princess wasn’t playing. And tbh I think that was very important. I think Aerys approached the Princess about Elia/Rhaegar because Dorne was more politically isolated. (Click the various links to WordPress in that post please if you wish to read about it.) 

(I don’t think this headcanon is supported by anything, but I feel like the Unnamed Princess was ill for several years before her death, and she was confined to her bed, sort of the way Doran has trouble getting out of his wheelchair because of his terrible gout. I think this illness was the reason why she wasn’t playing the game, and why I think Aerys approached her, because she wouldn’t be able to make visits to the Crownlands / act as an ally at court for Elia, etc, like I think there was just. this perfect storm of keeping Elia isolated that eventually led to her horrible death all alone. But this is just my headcanon.)

So no, I don’t think the Princess was involved in Southron Ambitions. As to the extent of her involvement in greater Westerosi politics, I don’t think she was ever that involved, I think she was a lot more focused on Dorne. I could be totally wrong though. It would be nice if GRRM discussed her politics a bit. It would be nice if I had a name to use while discussing her politics. 

@racefortheironthrone replied to your post:

Absolutely. The whole point of Tywin and the Princess’ machinations is to build a power bloc with marriage alliances that includes House Targaryen, not replaces or constrains House Targaryen. Yes, they might want that alliance to be with Rhaegar rather than Aerys, but they’re still pro-monarchy.

[samwpmarleau]

If Aegon decided to throw his hands up and act like a good king/grandfather and refuses to marry Aerys and Rhaella, so Mama Martell gets a Targ bride for Doran (since he is closet in age/status/etc). Does this change her marriage ideas for Elia or Oberyn? Expectations for grandbabies?

There’s a few different things at play here. The Princess of Dorne didn’t set out to marry into the royal family, she set out to marry Elia to Jaime. It was only when Joanna died, Tywin refused, and Steffon and Cassana Estermont died without finding a suitable Essosi bride for Rhaegar that she sought out that match, both because the crown prince was the highest prize in the land and to spite Tywin.

Additionally, we can see she wasn’t particularly interested in a high-profile Westerosi match for Doran, considering a) he married Mellario, who as a noble wasn’t nobody, but she was also a foreigner that didn’t bring any particular boons to the Martells, b) he didn’t marry until he was ~28, and c) we don’t hear of her even searching out anyone despite there being several women both available and of appropriate rank.

Thirdly, I don’t know that Aegon would agree to a match between Doran and Rhaella. His reign was already pretty unpopular with the lords, considering he kept putting forward/passing smallfolk reform at their expense, and because not only did his kids spurn their betrothals, not only did Jaehaerys and Shaera marry each other, but Aegon’s mother, grandmother, and great-uncle were all Dornish, and the realm had been at war with Blackfyre pretenders for generations which began in part because of the original anti-Dornish sentiment in Daeron II’s reign. Aegon likely would not have been inclined to press his luck by pushing another Targaryen-Dorne match through.

But for argument’s sake, we’ll assume Aegon and the Princess of Dorne do marry Doran to Rhaella. Grandchildren wouldn’t be an issue, presumably; Rhaella had something like 10 pregnancies, most of which went to term, and Doran obviously had his three kids in canon so neither of them is hurting in the fertility department. Dorne’s future would be presumably secure, and the Princess of Dorne would get bragging rights of having a royal princess for a daughter-in-law.

So would she still pursue a go-getter match for Elia (and potentially Oberyn)? Probably. Assuming Joanna still dies, the Princess of Dorne wouldn’t get a Jaime match but she also obviously wouldn’t get one with Rhaegar since Rhaegar wouldn’t exist. That still leaves the very desirable Baelor Hightower as a candidate, as well as someone further afield like Ned Stark or Elbert Arryn, both of whom were about Elia’s age. (Incidentally, a union of either of the latter candidates would put the Princess of Dorne squarely in the Southron Ambitions bloc, not to mention because of Doran’s marriage it would bring the crown along with it, so that would certainly be a selling point to either Rickard Stark or Jon Arryn if it came down to it.)

I think in this scenario a lot of it would come down to Elia’s opinion on it all. In canon, because Doran married Mellario, that left Elia as the prime — and, really, only — bargaining chip the Princess of Dorne had. Oberyn was rash and promiscuous even then, having already sired three bastards by that point, and it sounds to me like the betrothal trip was almost exclusively about Elia, not Oberyn. With AU Doran having already shored up a Targaryen spouse, if Elia requested to marry a man of her choosing, I could see her mother agreeing to it, if he were of appropriate birth. Both out of compassion but also because it would be wise to make sure her vassals are happy as well. They would have been peeved that none of their daughters had a chance at princess consort, but Elia’s hand would still be plenty advantageous for both vassal and liege.

The long and the short of it is, I’m pretty up in the air. I could see it going both ways. Potentially she would push Oberyn forward more and go after someone like Lysa, Janna/Mina Tyrell, Malora Hightower, Lyanna, etc., though given the aforementioned reputation and that Oberyn’s children would have virtually zero chance of inheriting anything (the title of prince or princess, yes, but not Sunspear), plus general racism, I don’t know how successful that would be.

No matter the scenario, though, Rhaella, Elia, and Oberyn all live long, happy lives, so I am 110% okay with that.

[zaldrizer-sovesi]

lizgallo replied to your post “Rather than getting vague and repetitive on a handful of asks about...”

Some good points. There is one part of the tourney you might be missing. That is the Southron Ambitions Theory. Lyanna was key to building an alliance between the North and the Stormlands. Rhaegar would easily have surmised this. Crowning her love and beauty would have sent a message to the Starks and Barathons that Rhaegar knew what was up. Maybe it was a warning. Or maybe he was trying to say he wanted in.

It’s certainly possible, but I don’t think it conflicts with my read on the character. If he a) knew about the Southron Ambitions bloc and b) spoke to Lyanna Stark privately, what is the rational explanation for making a big cryptic show of it for the whole realm, rather than having her get a message directly to her father? Doing what he did is still more consistent with deer-in-headlights syndrome than with some great tactical plan.

[goodqueenaly]

Do you think Kyle Royce was from the junior branch of House Royce? Would kind of make sense for him to be a companion of Brandon Stark if they were cousins

Basically impossible to determine. Indeed, I wouldn't say either branch is more likely than the other, not only because Brandon's relationship to the junior branch Royces was perhaps somewhat tenuous (his great-aunt Jocelyn Stark had married Benedict Royce, but according to Catelyn had only three daughters, none of whom then married Royces themselves) but also because his choice of companions may have been, I think, as much a political statement as a reflection on his personal desires. In Jeffory Mallister, Brandon had the scion of one of the most prominent families of the Riverlands - the very region he would (so he assumed) be tied to through marriage to Catelyn Tully; in Ethan Glover, Brandon reemphasized his commitment to his future (again, so he believed) vassals in the North (and specifically to a family which had a vested interest in protecting the west of Westeros - the very arena the Iron Throne had so pointedly ignored in its peril during the reign of Aerys I); in Elbert Arryn, Brandon guaranteed a continuation of the Stark-Tully-Arryn power bloc which was already being sealed through marriage and fostering ties. Kyle Royce, whatever his branch of origin, I think fit within this program: junior or senior branch, a Royce would always represent the most eminent blue blood of the Vale's aristocracy, all but destined to be a prominent leader in that class' next generation - and, thus, a valuable figure to bring close to the future Lord of Winterfell who mattered so much to the prior generation's southron ambitions goals.

[warsofasoiaf]

If the Blackfyres had been a going concern at the outset of Robert's Rebellion, do you think the rebels would have reached out to them, if the pretender had been an appealing candidate (i.e. more of a Daemon than a Maelys) to get the legitimacy and the Golden Company? Also, if this hypothetical pretender was able to get in touch with his friends in the Reach, and say, show up to relieve the siege of Storm's End early on, might that have got him their support?

The problem is that for the most part, the rebels are scrambling. After Eddard leaves to the North and Robert takes Gulltown and sails to the Stormlands, there's no unified rebel braintrust that could sit down and focus on a future course of action like that; the goal was to raise troops and prevent the loyalists from sending an army to destroy them. We don't see them together again until the Battle of the Bells (and really, not until the double Tully marriage), which by then, it might be too late. So while it might happen, the logistics of it are so tricky that it would be difficult.

This changes, of course, if the Southron Ambitions bloc maintained discreet ties to the Blackfyres. According to the theory, part of the reason that they had established the bloc in the first place was the absence of the Blackfyres. If they were in place, then it's entirely possible Jon Arryn might have been able to get in contact, and that makes everything much easier.

Thanks for the question, Anon.

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King

[moonlitgleek]

Would Lyanna/Edmure have been in the cards if Robert died during the betrothal and Stannis didn't take up the position? There is a large but not impossible age difference & the Riverlands are close to the North. It would also push the actually wedding back a few years.

Nope. Brandon and Catelyn’s betrothal cements the Winterfell-Riverrun alliance and it’s not good politics to waste Lyanna or Edmure’s hands on an already established alliance when they can be used to ally with other houses. Why marry Lyanna to Edmure if you can marry her to, say, Elbert Arryn? Both Rickard Stark and Hoster Tully are too savvy and ambitious to squander a valuable marriage pawn each on an already guaranteed alliance.

[warsofasoiaf]

Say Rhaegar doesn't do the Lyanna thing, and political events progress, and the STAB allies make their move against Aerys. Tywin's options are 1. to be on the outside, 2. wait until Aerys is willing to invite him back on acceptable terms, 3. go crawling back to Team Targ (either way I see Mace taking the top royalist spot, with his sycophancy, larger army & children of age to marry Rhaegar's) or 4. marry Cersei to Ned or Stannis & give up on royal grandkids. Which do you think he does?

"STAB allies make their move against Aerys" is a big thing that needs a lot of clarification. How exactly are they making their move? What's the greater context? A Southron Ambitions bloc that protests Aerys's latest feudal excess is a lot different than the bloc saying "kill Aerys lol."

That being said, Tywin doesn't like to be on the outs, hates being slighted, and would prefer to be in charge but has been willing to compromise on that in the past (see the Jaime-Lysa potential matchup, clearly an attempt to get into the Southron Ambitions camp). That leads me to believe that his most likely option is to join Southron Ambitions.

Thanks for the question, Anon.

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King

[warsofasoiaf]

Why did varys take such a strong friendship liking to Tyrion? And do you think he could like a lady from the Lannister/Baratheon/arryn/stark block who believed in the pro smallfolk rights and for the children stuff? Or do you think it’s specific to Tyrion being a man like varys that is also an outcast but Tyrion has the claim varys needs for aegon?

Varys is definitely not pro-smallfolk, and neither are the Southron Ambitions bloc - even Ned is a paternal aristocrat. No one who systematically maims children is "for the children."

It's possible that Varys appreciated someone with a similar skillset and use of knowledge as power. It's also possible Varys saw Tyrion as someone who could empathize having a physical disability that prevents them from fulfilling the masculine archetype of Westerosi society, but make no mistake. Varys would murder Tyrion in a heartbeat to bring about his perfect prince.

Thanks for the question, Anon.

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King

[goodqueenaly]

hi! i read a theory recently which i now cannot find anywhere that suggested the southron ambitions plot was actually about putting robert on the throne before any of the events of the series took place, and lyanna spilled the beans to rheager, which is part of why he crowned her and the martells weren't upset with the crowning at first. and then it involved aerys actually originally calling for lyanna's capture because he found out she was the knight of the laughing tree, and rhaeger actually rescuing her in gratitude, and ethan glover telling about the robert's rebellion plan which is why he wasn't killed, and lots of other small details i don't remember and wish i did. have you seen this theory at all? what do you think of it?

This sounds like a pretty dumb theory in my opinion.

First of all, if the southron ambitions bloc’s intention was to crown Robert king long before Robert’s Rebellion, why did the rebel faction wait until the very end of Robert’s Rebellion, on the eve of the Trident, to acclaim Robert king? Don’t get me wrong, I certainly think that Robert’s royal heritage was the reason why the bloc’s main actors wanted to bring him to their side via marriage, but I don’t think that means they were always planning on getting rid of the Targaryens. Rather, I think the delay in acclaiming Robert demonstrates that for a good part of the rebellion, the rebel faction thought or hoped for some king of settlement with the Targaryen dynasty, and that only when Rhaegar showed that he condoned his father’s tyranny by leading an army against the rebel faction did that faction realize the Targaryen dynasty was unworkable. In that sense, I tend to see crowning Robert less as a long-term goal for the bloc and instead as a sort of back-pocket threat; the Targaryens would rewrite the feudal playbook to give greater power to the crown’s major vassals, or those vassals would find a better monarch.

I’m also having difficulty following the line of logic here. Even if we suppose that the bloc’s intent was to crown Robert king (which again I don’t believe) and that Lyanna was made aware of this, why would Lyanna then tell Rhaegar that? Why, if she did tell him that, would Rhaegar respond by giving her the crown of the queen of love and beauty? Why if Lyanna did tell him and he gave her the crown specifically for this reason would the Martells not be upset? What do any of these actions, already individually inexplicable, have to do with each other? (That goes for the Ethan Glover point too - why would Ethan have been told about a supposed plan to crown Robert, why would Ethan have then told Aerys about this plan, and why would that mean Aerys would then let him go?)

Additionally, the person behind this theory is mistaken in thinking that the Martells were not insulted by Rhaegar’s actions. For one, we have GRRM’s own words to the artist Paolo Puggioni, describing Elia at the moment of Lyanna being given the crown as “stiff-backed and trying to act as if nothing was wrong” - in other words, realizing the gross public insult and trying to do anything to avoid making it worse. Likewise, the WOIAF app indicates that at the beginning of Robert’s Rebellion, Doran Martell was “furious at Elia’s mistreatment at the hands of her husband and so [was] slow to lend any aid to the embattled Targaryens” (a point echoed by GRRM himself); the app reiterated this point with Oberyn’s article, stating that the slow Martell response was due to “Rhaegar’s callous treatment of his wife, Princess Elia”.

Further, I find it frankly impossible to believe that Aerys II not only found out that Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree but specifically ordered her capture. For one, Yandel point blank notes that “His Grace [i.e. Aerys II] became convinced that the tree on the mystery knight's shield was laughing at him, and—with no more proof than that—decided that the mystery knight was Ser Jaime Lannister”, without ever noting any suggestion that Aerys changed his mind on the identity of the mystery knight. Likewise, both Yandel and the Reeds make clear that the only person Aerys sent to find Knight of the Laughing Tree was Rhaegar himself, who returned only with the mystery knight’s shield; unless Rhaegar then made the totally bonkers decision to tell his dad about Lyanna, then I have no idea why we should then suppose that Aerys somehow knew about Lyanna being the Knight of the Laughing Tree. Moreover, if this theory suggests that Aerys called for Lyanna’s capture then where is the trail of him, you know, actually trying to capture her - the order he would have given, the comments he made to his cronies, anything? This point is especially incredible in considering that there were roughly two months between the tourney and Lyanna’s disappearance with Rhaegar, a period of time when Lyanna’s whereabouts were presumably not secret; is the implication that Aerys just kind of forgot that he ordered Lyanna’s capture for a few months, and then all of a sudden remembered, and then Rhaegar decided to run away with her?

And obviously, all of this still raises the big question for any theory - so what? So what if Rhaegar was intending to protect Lyanna from Aerys and that’s what prompted him to escape with her - he was still a married 22-year-old prince who abandoned his wife and children (where they were in easy reach of his violently paranoid and sadistic father) and she was still a 14-year-old girl who lacked the social, political, or gender authority or power to say no to him. So what if he thought Aerys was going to kill her - Rhaegar still imposed a sexual relationship on a teenager with no power to say no and kept her in a tower far from home, surrounded by strangers. So what if the Martells knew that Rhaegar and Lyanna knew about some cockamamie plot to acclaim Robert king - that doesn’t erase the huge public humiliation Rhaegar inflicted on his wife (in front of many, many other people who even by the terms of this theory presumably wouldn’t have known about this plot). So what if Aerys was concerned Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree - his murders of Brandon, Rickard, and Brandon’s companions and their fathers was still a choice he took to satisfy his own sadism, and the tyranny which really began Robert’s Rebellion had nothing to do with the tourney of Harrenhal.

I don’t know if the person behind this theory wants to absolve Rhaegar of any blame, demonize Robert’s Rebellion, take any agency away from Lyanna, or something else entirely, but to me none of this is supported by any canon or even semi-canon material and fails to satisfy any narrative demands or themes.