#which was a worldwide series of natural disasters likely caused by a series of space debri hitting the glaciers of the iceage

[swagging-back-to]

fossils and archeology are irl lore but no one cares

[scifigeneration]

Space weather threatens high-tech life

by Roger Dube

Shortly after 4 a.m. on a crisp, cloudless September morning in 1859, the sky above what is currently Colorado erupted in bright red and green colors. Fooled by the brightness into thinking it was an early dawn, gold-rush miners in the mountainous region of what was then called the Kansas Territory woke up and started making breakfast. What happened in more developed regions was even more disorienting, and carries a warning for the wired high-tech world of the 21st century.

As the sky lit up over the nighttime side of the Earth, telegraph systems worldwide went berserk, clacking nonsense code and emitting large sparks that ignited fires in nearby piles of paper tape. Telegraph operators suffered electrical burns. Even disconnecting the telegraph units from their power sources didn’t stop the frenzy, because the transmission wires themselves were carrying huge electrical currents. Modern technology had just been humbled by a fierce space weather storm that had arrived from the sun, the largest ever recorded – and more than twice as powerful as a storm nine years earlier, which had itself been the largest in known history.

My seven years of research on predicting solar storms, combined with my decades using GPS satellite signals under various solar storm conditions, indicate that today’s even more sensitive electronics and satellites would be devastated should an event of that magnitude occur again. In 2008, a panel of experts commissioned by the National Academy of Sciences issued a detailed report with a sobering conclusion: The world would be thrown back to the life of the early 1800s, and it would take years – or even a decade – to recover from an event that large.

A solar explosion

Space weather storms have happened since the birth of the solar system, and have hit Earth many times, both before and after that massive event in 1859, which was named the Carrington event after a British astronomer who recorded his observations of the sun at the time. They’re caused by huge electromagnetic explosions on the surface of the sun, called coronal mass ejections. Each explosion sends billions of protons and electrons, in a superheated ball of plasma, out into the solar system.

About 1 in every 20 coronal mass ejections heads in a direction that intersects Earth’s orbit. Around three days later, our planet experiences what is called a space weather storm or a geomagnetic storm.

While these events are described using terms like “weather” and “storm,” they do not affect whether it’s rainy or sunny, hot or cold, or other aspects of what it’s like outdoors on any given day. Their effects are not meteorological, but only electromagnetic.

Aurorae are signs of a geomagnetic storm. NASA/Terry Zaperach

Hitting Earth

When the coronal mass ejection arrives at Earth, the charged particles collide with air molecules in the upper atmosphere, generating heat and light called aurora.

Also, as happens anytime moving electrical charges encounter a magnetic field, the interaction creates a spontaneous electrical current in any conductor that’s available. If the plasma ball is big enough, its interaction with Earth’s magnetic field can induce large currents on long wires on the ground, like the one that overloaded telegraph circuits in 1859.

On March 13, 1989, a storm only about one-fifth as strong as the Carrington event hit Earth. It induced a large surge of current in the long power lines of the Hydro-Quebec power grid, causing physical damage to transmission equipment and leaving 6 million people without power for nine hours. Another storm-induced power surge destroyed a large transformer at a New Jersey nuclear plant. Even though a spare transformer was nearby, it still took six months to remove and replace the melted unit. Some people worried that the bright auroral lights meant nuclear war had broken out.

And in October 2003, a rapid series of solar storms affected Earth. Collectively called the Halloween solar storm, this series caused surges that threatened the North American power grid. Its effects on satellites made GPS navigation erratic and interrupted communications connections during the peak of the storm.

Larger storms will have wider effects, cause more damage and take longer to recover from.

Wide-reaching effects

Geomagnetic storms attack the lifeblood of modern technology: electricity. A space weather storm typically lasts for two or three days, during which the entire planet is subjected to powerful electromagnetic forces. The National Academy of Sciences study concluded that an especially massive storm would damage and shut town power grids and communications networks worldwide.

Electricity, shown in the upper right, is integrated into every aspect of modern life. Federal Communications Commission

After the storm passed, there would be no simple way to restore power. Manufacturing plants that build replacements for burned-out lines or power transformers would have no electricity themselves. Trucks needed to deliver raw materials and finished equipment wouldn’t be able to fuel up, either: Gas pumps run on electricity. And what pumps were running would soon dry up, because electricity also runs the machinery that extracts oil from the ground and refines it into usable fuel.

With transportation stalled, food wouldn’t get from farms to stores. Even systems that seem non-technological, like public water supplies, would shut down: Their pumps and purification systems need electricity. People in developed countries would find themselves with no running water, no sewage systems, no refrigerated food, and no way to get any food or other necessities transported from far away. People in places with more basic economies would also be without needed supplies from afar.

It could take between four and 10 years to repair all the damage. In the meantime, people would need to grow their own food, find and carry and purify water, and cook meals over fires.

Some systems would continue to operate, of course: bicycles, horse-drawn carriages and sailing ships. But another type of equipment that would keep working provides a clue to preventing this type of disaster: Electric cars would continue to work, but only in places where there were solar panels and wind turbines to recharge them.

Preparing and protecting

Geomagnetic storms would affect those small-scale installations far less than grid-scale systems. It’s a basic principle of electricity and magnetism that the longer a wire that’s exposed to a moving magnetic field, the larger the current that’s induced in that wire.

In 1859, the telegraph system was so profoundly affected because it had wires stretching from city to city across the U.S. Those very long wires had to handle enormous amounts of energy all at once, and failed. Today, there are long runs of wires connecting power generators to consumers – such as from Niagara Falls to New York City – that would be similarly susceptible to large induced currents.

The only way to reduce vulnerability to geomagnetic storms is to substantially revamp the power grid. Now, it is a vast web of wires that effectively spans continents. Governments, businesses and communities need to work together to split it into much smaller components, each serving a town or perhaps even a neighborhood – or an individual house. These “microgrids” can be connected to each other, but should have protections built in to allow them to be disconnected quickly when a storm approaches. That way, the length of wires affected by the storm will be shorter, reducing the potential for damage.

A family using solar panels and batteries for storage and an electric car to get around would likely find its water supply, natural gas or internet service disrupted. But their freedom to travel, and to use electric lights to work after dark, would provide a much better chance at survival.

When will the next storm hit?

People should start preparing today. It’s impossible to know when a major storm will hit next: The most we’ll get is a three-day warning when something happens on the surface of the sun. It’s really only a matter of time before there is another one like the Carrington event.

Solar astrophysicists are also studying the sun to identify any events or conditions that might herald a coronal mass ejection. They’re collecting enormous amounts of data about the sun and using computer analysis to try to connect that information to geomagnetic storms on Earth. This work is underway and will become more refined over time. The research has not yet yielded a reliable prediction of a coming solar storm before an ejection occurs, but it improves each year.

In my view, the safest course of action involves developing microgrids based on renewable energy. That would not only improve people’s quality of life around the planet right now, but also provide the best opportunity to maintain that lifestyle when adverse events happen.

Roger Dube is a Research Professor of Imaging Science at the Rochester Institute of Technology

This article was originally published on The Conversation. 

[detainedengineers]

8 inspirational women 2021 who are actually strong and Fearless

Today, being in the list of inspirational women 2021, you don’t have to be a dream achiever, nor do you be an Instagram influencer, and please you really don’t need to show your mercy to any poor pedestrian in your town. But what about those real facts that we’re missing why some most prominent ladies are lying on top of millions of online pages, international magazines, and in the best-selling books around the world.

We would simply say about their own life struggles that they learn by because it is a very famous quote circling around us that says, we have to face a struggle in our life to understand it better and those who can survive or are even willing to change, helps others to faith in life after lots of difficulties, taught womanhood that how strongest you’re as in worst part in your life.

We listed here some real-life wonder women, who hit the world by their own survival skills in the manhood world:

Oprah Winfrey

Oprah Winfrey, author, actress, television producer, American talk show host, and philanthropist, earned the title of first Black American Billionaire in 2003, which is still an unbelievable achievement for being an African American inspirational woman for millions. Racism was the first cause for many riots, protests, and fights in the last 100 years in American history, and it is still going on in American high-class society. Being an African American, It’s still really hard to get normal benefits from government officials or local authorities to support your business, purchase nice property in America.

However, Oprah Winfrey’s story is really convincing as inspirational women 2021 icon for millions of others humiliated-blackish people, she is inspiring others’ breed as well because if she can wear dresses made of potato sacks in her childhood and earned top-branded clothes in her life, why can’t anyone in the world. Some unforgettable inspiring words by Oprah, are:

“Think like a queen. A queen is not afraid to fail. Failure is another steppingstone to greatness.”

“Every time you state what you want or believe, you’re the first to hear it. It’s a message to both you and others about what you think is possible. Don’t put a ceiling on yourself.”

“Create the highest, grandest vision possible for your life, because you become what you believe.”

Malala Yousafzai

Malala Yousafzai, a Pakistani girl activist, educational hero, and Nobel Peace Prize winner who has suddenly emerged as a human inspiration around the world, is motivated by her society’s right to education.

Who would know Malala as inspirational women 2021 if she wasn’t shot a bullet in her head for simply asking for study by a famous illiterate community of the world, ‘Taliban’. Well, Malala understood more about her religion better than those who nominate themselves as extremists of the religion, and she tried to question the rules of education for womanhood as per Islamic guidance but she didn’t get any specific answer instead of a bullet that could carry her near to death.

However, she survived after such a scary moment for anyone in their life, but her mind power toward the right believes alive again in the world and she got her life mission as an inspirational woman to fight back against her uneducated community.

However, she was alone when she took her first step toward making a big change, but soon after she received strong support from the rest of the world, which helped her become the inspirational women 2021 because it was not only her story of a woman who lost her education due to the restrictive culture created by the manhood world for all women around the world.

Before winning the youngest Nobel Prize in 2014, Malala was noticed by top leaders of the world, includes UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, British Foreign Secretary, William Hague, Angelina Jolie, and a dedicated song “Human Nature” by American singer Madonna.

Ashley Graham

Ashley Graham, American model and television presenter, made history as the first plus-size model to grace the cover of Vogue in 2017, answered to millions of people who were quick to mock a girl for her big-fat figure. Her remark brought a big change in the world because fat women were always considered to be unhealthy, ugly, and unfit for top-trendy fashion outfits.

The list of her achievements is huge and before hired for the name in inspirational women 2021, she had appeared in Bust magazine, Levi’s campaigns, Boyfriend Collection, Marina Rinaldi campaigns, Harper’s Bazaar, named for the Full-Figured Fashion Week’s Model of the Year in 2012; In 2016, she became the first plus-size model to appear on the cover of the Swimsuit Issue.

However, Ashley received much applause for her own body-positive, she never celebrated it alone and always tried to express her inspirational words to every girl who look fat. She spoke in public and at many platforms of talk shows about how to every woman can be beautiful at any size.

In an interview with Vogue, this well-known icon who recorded on inspirational women 2021 list worried about fashion industry belief system and said, they acknowledge her appearance as a plus size model, but she thinks it is only her size and she loved it.

Mary Kom

Chungneijang Mary Kom Hmangte, generally known as Mary Kom, is an Indian boxer, a Minister, and at present a Member of Parliament in Rajya Sabha. She is an Eastern-Indian breed who made history by becoming the first Indian woman boxer to win a gold medal at the Asian Games in South Korea in 2014; she also won gold at the Commonwealth Games in 2018 and finished first in her division that made her top-rated icon for leading inspirational women 2021.

However, she earned Padma Bhushan, Padma Shri, Rajiv Gandhi Khel Ratna Award, Arjuna Award as her dream goals by her own country, her biopic movies filmed by Priyanka Chopra in 2014 transformed her life story into an inspirational woman saga. Her biographical movie expressed a lot about her early life struggle, patience, and her never losing humor in any situation inspired millions of women to dream something big with consistently battling with self-humor and winning dreams after being a woman, a mother, and a wife.

Kalpana Chawla

Late Kalpana Chawla was the first woman of Indian heritage to go to space, but she was also an American astronaut and engineer who is still remembered for being on the list of inspirational women 2021. Not only she was, but still, her father is known as a symbol for inspiration by letting her daughter fly high for her dreams. However, she belongs to a nation where millions of parents are still considering their daughters to live inside the house and understand home responsibilities first in their life, Kalpana reached into the space between uncounted shinning stars as she promised herself in her childhood that one day she will go beyond and touch those shining stars.

In 1988, Kalpana started her dream journey with the NASA research center and got selected for her first flight to space in 1996 but it took almost a year to step into the earth, and on 19 November 1997, she flew along with six astronauts in the ‘Space Shuttle Columbia flight STS-87‘.

She flew for the second time in 2003 but was tragically died along with the other six members of the Space Shuttle Columbia disaster, and Indian women lost a role model who is still remembered in millions of hearts.

Kalpana becomes an inspirational woman with her incredible work and answered for those parents who compare their children as per gender differences and who stopped their daughters not to look beyond her restrictive boundaries.

J.K Rowling

J. K. Rowling, sometimes known as Joanne Rowling, is a British author, screenwriter, film producer, and still best as other inspirational women 2021 . Rowling is most recognized for her work on the Harry Potter series, which has sold over 500 million copies and is the highest-selling book series in history. She admitted herself into a horrible predicament after ascending to the position of the world’s most renowned person.

Rowling began writing shortly after coming up with the idea for Harry Potter, but she was unexpectedly diverted by the untimely death of her mother, which threw her into deep despair, and she couldn’t help but sabotage her writing abilities day after day.

Following the huge success of Harry Potter, Rowling’s writing career began to deteriorate, and she was forced to take a teaching job in Portugal in the hopes of making positive changes in her life, but nothing changed. She struggled with severe depression on several occasions, a child’s responsibility on her shoulder that led her from authoring historical book series to working as a café employee.

She had to deal with rejection on a regular basis and was continuously pushing for success. Rowling’s dedication to her noble writing practice, as well as her ability to endure in the face of rejection, made her inspirational women 2021 to a worldwide audience.

Jacinda Ardern

New Zealand found her first prime minister as Jenny Shipley, she was born on July 26, 1980, and she is not only in the list of inspirational women 2021, but her decent, honest, and faithful appearance recently made her the world’s youngest leader.

But, as New Zealand’s prime minister, she perfectly summed up the country’s grief when she paid a visit to members of the Muslim community in the aftermath of a terrorist attack on a Christchurch Mosque in 2019, which killed at least 50 people. She wore a Muslim hijab to convey to the world that she was very upset by the tragedy, demonstrating her best inspirational women 2021 personality.

It showed something unique and undeniable: here was a leader who lived the values of the country she represents and inspired millions of people all over the world to fight hate and war.

You can also see here 10 Most Popular Stars From Ott Platforms in India

Muniba Mazari

Muniba Mazari is widely knowns as the “Iron Lady of Pakistan”, and got 100 Most inspirational figures in 2015, and by naming one of the British Broadcasting Corporation.

Well, it’s important for us to understand why a common Pakistani woman named in the world’s topmost inspirational women 2021 icon is battling and gaining positivity when no one could tell her how she would spend the rest of her life after a tragic car accident left her completely paralyzed and caused multiple fractures in her shoulder, arms, collarbone, and rib cage.

Another set of upsetting news was that she would be unable to walk due to her spinal injuries and would also be unable to give birth. And so began her journey of self-acceptance, which she carried with her smiley face as she greeted everyone who came to her house to see her, perplexed as to how we could be happy in her life after such a traumatic event.

Mazari’s powerful mind aided her greatly by convincing her that she would never be ideal for anyone, and she began to overcome all of her anxieties, including those related to losing money, sicknesses, and living in the worst conditions possible. It took nine years for the world to be inspired by Muniba’s personal struggle, but she unlike others inspirational women 2021 is never hesitant to tell her story and teach others how to stay optimistic in the face of adversity.

Our Conclusion

So the next time you find yourself in a severe or unimaginative change in your life, just remind yourself of how potential, sincere, energetic, and positive you are. Perhaps someone is looking at you and is quickly inspired by your incredible achievement after a long battle with your emotions, inner negativities, and a desire to shine as a star symbol once more: today.

You also can see here 10 Popular Self-made Bollywood Stars who Really Empower the Industry

You also can see here Top 10 Sensational and Stunning sexiest women in the world 2021

[wholeworldbroken]

PART 1)  Net Neutrality, Hypernormalization, The Dinosaur Who Swindled Natural Selection & Prospered... AND... The Healthy Benefits Of Paranoid Delusional Psychosis.

TV is a dinosaur sinking into the tar. All those once giant networks are scrambling to survive just a little longer in this technological age that left them behind before they noticed. That Netflix model is alot bigger deal than it's given credit for. It's what reshaped HULU until it went legitimate. It's why there's an HBOGO, STARZ, SHOWTIME, etc. app that all outperform their parent networks.

The power of ON-DEMAND blew Amazon up from a more Wal-Marty version of eBay to the titan it is now. Disney is gearing up to yank all Star Wars, Marvel, Indiana Jones, etc. properties from Netflix to add to their own upcoming streaming channel. Even the underdogs that only Netflix could make into giant hits: Daredevil, Jessica Jones, Luke Cage, The Defenders and The Punisher (not so much IronFist) are being carted over to the new Disney service without so much as a "thank you for making this possible" to Netflix.

CBS launched theirs earlier this year with the added ammo of the most expensive Star Trek series to date, Discovery, being only available through their site. We'll probably see about 10 new changeovers this coming year. Comcast, Verizon and Slime-Warner know that we'll pay $8 here, $10 there for the convenience of catching all that exclusive content completely at our lesiure, always waiting as soon as we feel like tapping that PLAY button.

So, the dinosaur is slowly inching across the quicksand, dragging its rip-off cable model over to the internet, embracing the technology of the future while still thriving off the scams of the past. Even Youtube, which was kind of a revolution in independent, DIY content creators and previously muted voices now given a somewhat worldwide platform, finding an audience without having to bow to the old media gatekeepers

(the Merv Griffins, Johnny Carsons, Entertainment Tonights, Morning Shows, blah, blah, blah, who were able to get rich off the young, hopefuls kissing the asses of whoever would help them be seen, LONG before any of the actual talent was consistently turning a profit. Completely self -regenerating. You can burn up the lump of coal till it's all disintegrated, but the machine ALWAYS got fresh coal being shoveled in the fire, baby)

... is now flooded with Jimmy Kimmel, SNL, Paramount, Disney studios, which seems like normal that those sketches, clips, movie trailers would end up archived on youtube...

until you consider that youtubers are paid through Google Adsense, and receive a monetary amount per video play featuring ads that are part of the program. The success and general public hunger for these independent creators has multiplied the number of young, self-made millionaires over the last 10 years. So, in come the dinosaurs, dragging that dirty-old-bag of crooked-old-ways with them.

Now you got NBC, uploading individual sketches from SNL, a television show that makes its revenue from tv ads & endorsements, each video cashing in on adsense profits seperately, rivaling the numbers from the original airing of the whole episode. Jimmy Fallon, Dr. Phil... practically EVERYbody is clawing & scratching for that youtube money all the kids were syphoning away from them. Whatever.

Big, ugly business, but still business. Dog eat dog & all that.

But what about commercials? Who the fuck clicks on the new TIDE ad showing up in their youtube feed? SOMEbody, cause it's got, like, a bajillion clicks. Are companies drafting interns to generate views and cash in on adsense? Hey, I'm paranoid, but if stupid old ME thought of it...

So, you seen the new Star Wars trailer? Shit, EACH newer version, starting with the teaser? How many did you see on youtube? ...and when you click that movie COMMERCIAL, like magic, you gotta sit through a goddamn COMMERCIAL before you can watch the COMMERCIAL you voluntarily chose to endure. Shit. I'll be DAMNED if, half the time, the ad that comes up isn't another trailer for another movie, usually from a whole other studio. Think Disney/StarWars minds you got a sneak taste of GrownUps 3 while you were waiting to drool all over a 30-second montage of disjointed scenes arranged to grease the dollar bills out of your wallet come Christmas time? `</pre> They just got paid by Adam Sandler's scam of a company for you to wait out the 5 seconds to click away from his bullshit and get up in them Star Wars guts... several million times... by an unrelated company willing to pay the opponent team for the luxury of dropping a commercial on the front of their commercial... leading to Disney (only an example. This is some across the board shit) making millions off a commercial designed to set up an installment in a franchise that will bring them automatic billions. <pre>` It's Terry Gilliam level absurdity that we've indoctrinated ourselves, as a species, to accept as "successful business practices", as we dream of one day carving our very own little chunk of the abstract money scheme balogna. I don't pretend to have a better, more functional answer than: try to resist as much of the barrage as you can, of huckster salesmen who have studied the best psychological methods of Stockholming your oblivious ass into not only continuing to prop up their pyramid scheme and perpetuating their boss's greedy manipulation of the entire world by way of its set-up-to-fail economic machinations `</pre> but ALSO, to constantly strengthen your faith in the infallible logic of those same machinations with a passion that is prepared to DESTROY any anomalous dissenters, selfish enough to be randomly fertilized and born into their designated gangsign annotated factions dividing up larger, further established, gangsign brandishing nation-states, yet still possessing the ingratious self-serving personality defect of introspection, empathy & existential contemplation. ** incoming** __VOICE__OF__GREAT__MACHINATION__LEADER,__STIFFY__O'FOOFYSKINS______ <pre>` "The enemy is all around and they hate your way of life. They whisper corruption into the ears of our unsuspecting younger generations. They bombard you with an agenda of moral codes & ideals in direct conflict to the ones you were taught. If you love the random patch of land you literally had more of a chance to be born outside of than in `</pre> and you're not some kind of infidel, basking in the luxuries provided by your assigned locale while remaining unwilling to offer up your mortal life to assure its continuation, then you already know that the RIGHT thing to do, the divine purpose you feel pumping through your heart, is stand tall & be ready to hoist your team's flag should it fall. The enemy wants to see you fail so that it can pillage its way to the holy finish line which was divinely entitled to YOU and the rest of the good guys. It preaches demoralizing propaganda designed to weaken your resolve & raise doubt toward your righteous goals. It knows ways to steal the food from your family's table... even steal your established identity and celebrate its wicked victories by splurging on the fruit sewed by YOUR noble labors. This is your preconceived understanding of the truth. There are higher levels of truth that only pertain to you as part of a bigger picture, but you need not concern yourself with such perplexing pokings & proddings into the corners of your manufactured reality. Take comfort in the ebb & flow of a pristine, global bureaucracy that, on the surface, appears to malfunction as a chaotic dumpster fire of social upheaval, random acts of blatantly hateful terrorism and increasingly violent natural disasters reminding each & every one of us that we are vulnerable and the only shelter comes from the sinister embrace of the leaders we ourselves chose to govern us, simply because that is the way the world has worked for much longer than our insignificant participation would justify constructing a new means of stability. Best not to stress over such uncontrollable details. GREEN has always meant GO. RED has always signified a mandatory STOP. ...And that proverbial cheese at the end of the maze, ever taunting the entire roster of teams? It's laced with the affectionate tongue-kiss of cyanide, the ultimate reward for any group that is able to pull ahead of the hordes and slamdunk their Nerf football into the victory bonfire. IT'S MILLER TIME... Because being on the winning team isn't what's important: WHAT COUNTS IS THAT YOUR TEAM DESTROYED AS MUCH OF THE OPPOSITION'S LIFE & LIVELIHOOD AS WAS POSSIBLE." <pre>` Over moral posturings? Over indignant evildoings? In a race to prove to the creator that your team is comprised of his chosen people and is ready to accept the role as His Holy Assassins? Over the truth behind 9/11? Over the ongoing argument concerning the actual SHAPE of the planet & the legitimacy of the very science we thought we understood, but very well may have been meticulously devised to support our indoctrinated "understanding" of a globe-shaped world, hurling through space in a cosmic dance with the star, SOL, spinning on an axis that brings it around 360° every 24 hours and marking the outlines of our 24 hour day... 7 day week... our 12 month year... An indoctrination so effective, most of us never once stop to entertain the notion that, at its essence, the concept of time in this manner, the 7 day work week (uncannily similar to the 7 days required to create the world), the weather defining 12 months adhered to by the Gregorian calendar could very logically, and historically likely, be an immeasurable, blanket imprisonment of individual human perceptions, compressing the infinite possibilities of each reality into a much more predictable & controllable number. Wrangling in those erratic, chaos-prone, possible realities that could ultimately crash the entire capitalist cabal so dependent on limiting the imaginations & therefore, the entire concept of the fabric of reality & the universe across an entire planet's population. Outrageous, right? Borderline psychotic levels of paranoia, layered with simple, obnoxious denial and a shot or 2 of worst-case-scenario gullibility, YEARS worth of nonsensical research into the ravings of like-minded lunatics whose infectious delusions have consistently contributed to the disenfranchisement and downfall of multiple promising, yet dangerously curious intellects dating all the way back to the first significant population booms & those resultant social structures that merely sought to stifle the all too common, human urge to casually rape & kill each other on the slightest of whims. When viewed in THAT light, maybe that original intent wasn't so awful. Maybe somebody just had to think of something, like, QUICK.

WE INTERRUPT THIS LITERATAL ILLUSTRATION OF AN IMPLODING BRAIN'S LAST, DESPERATE GRASP AT UNDERSTANDING TO BRING YOU THIS TEMPORARILY DEBILITATING ANXIETY ATTACK...

[writingscififantasy]

Science Fiction Subgenres from A to N

So, to start this blog off with something fun, I thought I’d do a series of big ol’ masterlists covering sci-fi and fantasy subgenres!  There is a heckin’ large amount of them, so I’ve split it up into four sections with about five or six posts- this one right here is for, you guessed it, science fiction, from A to N.  *cue distant cheering*

First up, a little recap:

Science Fiction: This can be considered a difficult genre to define, simply because it can encompass nearly anything- but the best definition I’ve heard is that it’s “the literature of change”, particularly in areas of scientific advancement and technological growth.  According to Wikipedia, this is a genre of speculative fiction “typically dealing with imaginative concepts such as futuristic science and technology, space travel, time travel, faster than light travel, parallel universes, and extraterrestrial life.” (x)  Science fiction generally encompasses imaginary worlds and universes bound to laws of physics (although not necessarily the laws we know of or follow) that are advanced in some way by science and technology, and experiencing some form of change because of that.  To put it very simply, science fiction can be viewed as fiction based upon science.  Science fiction tends to evoke thoughts of aliens, spaceships, robots, AI, new planets, futuristic cities, flying cars, high-tech things made of shiny metals, lightsabers and phasers, environmental sustainability, and far-future social themes.  Examples include Dune (Dune series) by Frank Herbert, The Handmaid’s Tale by Margaret Atwood, Lagoon by Nnedi Okorafor, The Stars Are Legion by Kameron Hurley, 1984 by George Orwell, Leviathan Wakes (The Expanse series) by James A. Corey, Ninefox Gambit by Yoon Ha Lee, and Parable of the Sower (Parable series) by Octavia E. Butler.

With that refresher in mind, let’s begin!  (I’d apologize for the word count, but we’re all nerdy writers here.)

Apocalyptic Sci-Fi: Ah, one of the favorites for anybody who enjoys good ol’ destruction and chaos in their books.  This subgenre is characterized by a cataclysmic event occurring that wipes out the vast majority of the human population, often with extensive destruction across the globe.

Common tropes for this include alien invasions, environmental disasters (oooh, one of my favorites- things such as catastrophic climate change), plagues or viruses (bioweapons and bioengineering, including the “zombie” virus as one of the current most popular- who doesn’t love zombies), the technological singularity or failure (the “robot uprising” vs. a worldwide EMP), astronomical events such as meteors, super-flares, or radiation bursts, supernatural events (demonic war, the Four Horsemen on Earth, vampires or other monsters), etc.  

Apocalyptic sci-fi goes hand in hand with post-apocalyptic sci-fi, but the former can be set apart from its counterpart in that it takes place during the exact time of the “apocalyptic” event- however, keep in mind that most books, even if they show the apocalyptic event in the beginning, tend to shift towards post-apocalyptic as the characters learn to survive in the aftermath.  Finding something that is solely an apocalyptic sci-fi novel is rare, and I will admit I had some trouble with it.  

This subgenre is often used to show human nature in chaotic times (how people panic, the “sheep” effect, mass hysteria, how individuals respond to their impending demise), as well as portray extreme destruction of cities and civilization, exemplify survival tactics, and use the setting as a source of action, drama, suspense, plot twists, and personal growth for characters as they act and react to their rapidly changing and dangerous world.

Examples: Life As We Knew It by Susan Beth Pfeffer (astronomical event, meteor strikes moon), The Stand by Stephen King (bioengineered virus and supernatural events), Seveneves by Neal Stephenson (astronomical event, moon is destroyed), Robopocalypse by Daniel H. Wilson (technological singularity, robot uprising), Ashfall by Mike Mullin (environmental disaster, supervolcanic eruption), The 5th Wave by Rick Yancey (alien invasion, environmental disaster, technological failure, and a deadly plague, for all your apocalyptic needs)

Note: Although not books, I also like to include the movies 2012, The Day After Tomorrow, World War Z, and Independence Day.

“Dying Earth”: If I’m being honest, this is probably the most depressing science fiction subgenre- probably even more so than the related-but-not-quite-the-same apocalyptic or post-apocalyptic subgenres- so thank goodness it’s fairly small.  Given the name from the series of works (aptly titled “The Dying Earth”) by Jack Vance which portrayed our Earth, millennia from now, as an exhausted, dying world orbiting an equally exhausted, dying star, the “Dying Earth” subgenre embodies themes of bone-deep exhaustion, depletion of planetary resources, innocence and idealism and (potentially) the loss of both, and The End of Time/Earth/The Universe.  

Common tropes include Earth or other planets physically dying (from the aforementioned resource depletion, going sterile, the sun burning out, being too old), stars burning out/going supernova and dying, laws of the universe failing as it dies, and species falling to extinction (from their planet/sun dying, out of apathy or exhaustion or physical/emotional/spiritual weariness, etc).  The subgenre as a whole can pretty much be summed up as “melancholic”.  

Although it also shows an end-of-the-world scenario, this subgenre differs from simple “apocalyptic events” and the related subgenres by virtue of not having anything so dramatic- instead, it simply shows the world as it winds down into a slow death.  

But wait- perhaps it’s not entirely depressing!  Some works in this subgenre also employ themes of hope and renewal, and the “Dying Earth” subgenre is often used to show optimism in the face of death, human endurance, looking forward to the unknown, and future promise.  Thankfully, it’s not all about the “entropic exhaustion of the Earth” and the fading of “the current comprehensible state of the universe”- talk about a bummer.  

Examples: The Dying Earth (series) by Jack Vance (the books that gave the subgenre its name), The Time Machine by H. G. Wells, City at the End of Time by Greg Bear, Dying of the Light by George R. R. Martin, certain stories in Sunfall (anthology) by C. J. Cherryh, Earthchild by Doris Piserchia (interestingly enough, I haven’t found anything in this subgenre over the past 10 years or so)

Note: Outside of books, the comic series Low by Rick Remender and the video game Dark Souls can be included in the subgenre.  Movies such as Reign of Fire, I Am Legend, The World, the Flesh, and the Devil, and The Quiet Earth could be considered vaguely “Dying Earth”, although they really don’t capture the melancholic, tired aspects that the subgenre embodies, and the endings distinctly lead away from the subgenre.

“Edisonade”: This one’s kind of short, because not only is it really small and generally unheard of, it’s also pretty old- old enough to be primarily from the time of “all sci-fi writers were men” and everything was written to appeal to the male gaze.  Basically, it’s a subgenre that includes stories about a character who is “a brilliant young inventor” in the ways of Thomas Edison, as they use their invention(s) to save their nation, save their love interest, defeat the villain, and presumably get rich and live prosperously as a quirky inventor forevermore.  

Although it is, at its core, something that could be very interesting to write and read- who doesn’t want to write about brilliant inventors?- the fact of the matter is that all the books in this subgenre tend towards a teenage/young man being the inventor, and saving the girl, and defeating the villain (normally foreigners, evil scientists, or aliens).  At the time that stories in this subgenre were written, a lot of them (not all!) reflected nationalistic, misogynistic, and generally racist views and tended to feature things like widespread colonization, exploration of parts of the world with “untamed lands and peoples”, and self-insert characters for boys to relate with on the premise of superiority and “saving the day”.  

The good part?  The “Edisonade” subgenre tends to be progressive in the ways of science, technology, and engineering, and it can be somewhat related to steampunk.  Other than that...the subgenre itself needs a bit of a reboot, so to speak.  Any takers?

Examples: The Steam Man of the Prairies by Edward S. Ellis, Tom Edison, Jr.(series) by Philip Reade, Tom Swift (series) by Victor Appleton

Hard Sci-Fi: And so we come to one of the ongoing debates amongst sci-fi communities- “hard” science fiction versus “soft” science fiction.  Hard sci-fi can be defined in a number of ways, and that has caused quite some controversy over the years- but the general consensus is that hard sci-fi is generally a subgenre of science fiction that depends upon more science, as well as greater scientific accuracy and explanation in its novels.

Novels in this subgenre are generally characterized by a large amount of science to go with the fiction- the “science and technology parts of science fiction are featured front and center, the scientific concepts are founded upon legitimacy, research, and lots of explanation, and the stories are more realistic and heavy.  

Here’s where some controversy comes in- sometimes a novel is “science-y” like that, but it’s primarily left in the background of the story, so it could be considered “soft” sci-fi.  

Also, many “hard” sci-fi works tend to focus on STEM-like areas (engineering, math, formal sciences like physics), or assume that the natural sciences (biology, environmental science, geology, etc) make a sci-fi story inherently “soft”.  

Sometimes, technology is left almost entirely in the background of a sci-fi story, with those natural sciences featuring more.  

Other times, the science that the novel is based upon proves to be faulty, or something is incorrect, or some of it is just plain implausible.  See the dilemmas?  

Anyways, here I am simply defining “hard sci-fi” as science fiction writing that focuses more on the scientific and technological aspects of a story, with an emphasis on legitimate scientific concepts, research, theories, and fact, and that incorporates much of those ideals into the writing and story itself (as plots, background, etc).  

Common tropes in this subgenre include hypothetical, explained logistics for futuristic technologies (faster-than-light travel, terraforming, spaceships, space habitats, etc), more realistic-looking tech, sometimes at the expense of being “less pretty” (spaceships that aren’t made of shiny stuff and still cause pollution, for instance, or spacesuits that look more like spacesuits rather than trendy plastic-wrap), and sometimes a lot of lengthy explanations within the story that you have to read a few times to really understand or some words you have to look up (keep a dictionary with you for some of these books, I mean, wow).  

This subgenre is often meant to show how the future could be soon, to show science fiction in a less out-there, more relatable light, appeal to more literal-minded people who desire scientific fact in their fiction or plots based upon legitimacy, explain the fundamentals of a story without “hand-waving”, and to explore far-future ideals, sciences, and technologies while remaining within the realms of current possibility.  

When done without a certain sense of grace, timing, and ability for relating lengthy expositions of science to plot, character, and setting, “hard” sci-fi can be difficult and overwhelming to read, occasionally preachy if the author tries to explain too much, and generally drag on.  However, when done well, “hard” sci-fi is a wonderful creation, something that teaches its readers, explores the world through the lenses of science, and portrays science as a general positive thing (something we all need in this world). 

Examples: Leviathan Wakes (The Expanse series) by James S. A. Corey, Ancillary Justice (Imperial Radch series) by Ann Leckie, The Martian by Andy Weir, Ringworld (series) by Larry Niven, vN by Madeline Ashby, Up Against It by M. J. Locke, Diaspora by Greg Egan, Remnant Population by Elizabeth Moon, A Door Into Ocean (Elysium series) by Joan Slonczewski, Downbelow Station (The Company Wars series) by C. J. Cherryh, The Bohr Maker (the Nanotech Succession series) by Linda Nagata, Lilith’s Brood (Xenogenesis Trilogy: Dawn, Adulthood Rites, Imago) by Octavia E. Butler

“Lost Worlds”: A lesser known subgenre, “Lost Worlds” is characterized by the discovery of a new “world” (i.e, planet, galaxy, continent) that is “out of time, place, or both”- meaning that the world is generally untouched by anything other than native flora and fauna, or that the civilizations there have never been seen before and were isolated from everyone else, or that the remnants of a civilization have been found there.  This subgenre came into popularity when people started finding actual remnants of previous civilizations- the Mayan temples, Egyptian tombs, etc- and began speculating about it and using it for fictional purposes.

Common tropes in this subgenre include, unfortunately, things like references to colonization and “a more advanced civilization meets a less advanced civilization”, in terms of technology/science/weapons.  On the positive side, tropes can also include exploration and travel throughout the world, survival tactics while within inhospitable lands, archaeological intrigue and findings, and good anthropological ideals where newcomers are curious and respectful of their cultures they come across, science fiction mixed with social sciences (anthropological science fiction is a subgenre that will come up in a later post!), and sometimes some pretty Star Trek-like stuff.  

Examples: Dinotopia (series) by James Gurney, The Lost World by Arthur Conan Doyle, Journey to the Center of the Earth by Jules Verne, Pym by Mat Johnson

Military Sci-Fi: This sci-fi subgenre is pretty self-explanatory- military sci-fi is characterized by a militarized setting, generally with characters within a military organization/army.  The sci-fi part tends to come along with the futuristic technologies being applied to weaponry, battleships, and military tech, and in that the settings of these battles, wars, or general military outposts tend to be in space (on a spaceship) or on a different planet.  Oftentimes the battle being waged is against alien species, or if it’s far enough in the future, it might be against other humans that are on a different planet/colony/outpost.  

Common tropes in this subgenre include political maneuverings amongst the higher-ups of this military or the people causing the war, characters that are soldiers and/or act out of interest in this war, (have military training, follow military orders, carry out missions, etc), war, fighting, and weaponry tactics discussed in the writing, traditional personality traits for military personnel (such as self-sacrifice, deep loyalty between soldiers, obedience and duty, bravery, and respect as well as disobeying orders to act in the interest of others), and spaceships taking the place of tanks, planes, or battleships of today.  

Military sci-fi can often overlap with the “space opera” genre- it speculates about the future and future wars, uses futuristic weaponry and ships, and is often large-scale in terms of the battle layouts and how/where the battle affects people and places.  

This subgenre is often used to show the political dynamics of a world or the future, how humans might react to meeting alien species (hopefully hostile, otherwise this subgenre would get pretty ugly), and how the military and corporations, government, and agendas expand into space.

Examples: Ninefox Gambit by Yoon Ha Lee, Mechanical Failure (Epic Failure series) by Joe Zieja, Valor’s Choice (Confederation series) by Tanya Huff, Vatta’s War (series) by Elizabeth Moon, Ender’s Game by Orson Scott Card, Starship Troopers by Robert A. Heinlein, The Red by Linda Nagata, Unbreakable by W. C. Bauers, Terms of Enlistment (series) by Marko Kloos, War of the Worlds by H. G. Wells, Fortune’s Pawn by Rachel Bach

Mundane Sci-Fi: This subgenre can be a bit iffy, depending on how you view it.  Generally, it’s described as sci-fi that doesn’t use “high claims” such as faster-than-light travel or aliens, but rather focuses on down-to-Earth (literally) works that use only believable technology and science from the modern day.  Therefore, it’s considered an extension of hard sci-fi, but even more legitimized than that- where hard sci-fi can hypothesize about “high claims” of worm holes and interstellar travel while using a strong basis in science, mundane sci-fi drops that altogether and sticks only to what is known to be plausible. 

Common tropes in this subgenre include hard sci-fi principles, technologies and science based upon proven fact and areas of study existing today, and no speculative technologies.

This subgenre is, to me, something to be viewed both positively and negatively.  On one hand, mundane science fiction promotes the idea of focusing only on current science/technology, rather than speculating about things such as warp drives and spaceships and intergalactic communities, because thinking about such ideas leads to negligence of the current issues we- and the planet- already face.  That’s not a bad thing- focusing on current issues are definitely something that should be done, and ignoring them won’t help anyone- but the mundane sci-fi community also claims, in some areas, that science fiction as a whole should abandon the ideas of space travel and a lot of the typical themes because it’s wrong to speculate on such ideals and it’s “running away from the problem”.  Take that as you will- there’s been a bit of an argument, so to speak, on the matter.  

Overall, the subgenre of mundane sci-fi is meant to show current science and technology through a fictional lens, the effects of current events such as climate change, biotechnology, global politics, and advancing robotics, how the world is changing in the now, “reawaken” the sense of wonder people feel towards sci-fi in the context of Earth alone, and bring in high levels of characterization and plot that are inherently realistic.

Examples: Air by Geoff Ryman, Schismatrix by Bruce Sterling, The Beast with Nine Billion Feet by Anil Menon, The Hacker and the Ants by Rudy Rucker, Red Mars by Kim Stanley Robinson, Arctic Rising by Tobias S. Buckell

New Wave Sci-Fi: Also a social and cultural movement as well as a literary one, “new wave sci-fi” doesn’t have as much bearing today in terms of being written as often (in the same way as it was then, at the very least).  This subgenre came about in the 60′s and 70′s, and it’s characterized as being “advant-garde” and “experimental” in the context of literature and art- it was more focused on being new and exciting and unique rather than purely accurate, scientifically speaking.  However, this period of time is also what saw a large increase in science fiction in mainstream culture, as well as more writers and readers- the subject itself shifted to become more aware of things such as language, politics, subject matter, writing techniques, and futuristic ideals.  There’s quite a large historical movement there, which I could get into later, but for now I’m gonna stick with the literary stuff.

Common tropes in this subgenre (there are lots) include rejection of classic sci-fi ideals (the Antihero, for instance, came about in sci-fi as a rejection of the typical “science hero”), deconstruction of regular themes, rejection of typical plots and “happy” endings, blurred boundaries between science fiction and fantasy (science fantasy is a subgenre I’ll also get into later!), and high amounts of progressive ideals (this was in the 60′s and 70′s- free-love, equality, and inclusiveness was, and is, a major part of the writing in this subgenre.

Much of what science fiction is now is owed, at least in part, to the new wave literary movement for science fiction.  The genre was more open for women and minorities (to an extent), the stories more all-encompassing, the themes more substantial, dynamic, and fluid- overall, it helped set the course for a lot of what sci-fi is now.

Examples: Dhalgren by Samuel R. Delaney, The Forever War by Joe Haldeman, The Elric Saga (series) by Michael Moorcock, Slaughterhouse Five by Kurt Vonnegut, And Chaos Died by Joanna Russ, The Hieros Gamos of Sam and An Smith by Josephine Saxton, The Lathe of Heaven by Ursula K. Le Guin

And that’s about it!  The next installment, “Science Fiction Subgenres from P to Z”, should be up in a day or two- after that, I’ll be moving onto Fantasy Subgenres (the Part 2 of the series).  I’ll start adding links as I write them- in the meantime, feel free to send me questions or thoughts about these subgenres and anything else!

Parting thoughts- are any of these subgenres completely new to you?  Can you think of any other novels in any of them?  Does your writing fall under any of these subgenres?

[brajeshupadhyay]

Coronavirus Outbreak: How do we mitigate the impact of gray rhino events in the future?— Part 3

The Dutch sea captain Willem de Vlamingh never imagined in his wildest dreams that black swans could exist. He never saw or heard of one in Europe. In January 1697 he and his crew sailed up a river, later named Swan River, in Southwestern Australia to explore it. And much to their utter amazement they became the first Europeans to see black swans.

“Black swan” events are extremely rare and highly improbable events. They share three characteristics:

1) they are unpredictable

2) they have a massive impact

3) post the event, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random and more predictable.

Is the COVID-19 outbreak a black swan event?

Here are three reasons why it is not an unpredictable event.

First, there have been more than a dozen serious epidemics, many of them worldwide, in the last 100 years (see Box 5). The Spanish flu and smallpox killed 50 million people each. Eighteen million Indians died of Spanish flu. HIV killed 30 million people. The Asian flu and Hong Kong flu killed at least a million people each. But they have faded quickly from public memory.

Second, a paper is written by four Chinese scientists titled, Bat Coronaviruses in China, published on 2 March 2019, specifically warned, “it is highly likely that future SARS- or MERS-like coronavirus outbreaks will originate from bats, and there is an increased probability that this will occur in China. Two bat origin CoVs caused large-scale epidemics in China over fourteen years, highlighting the risk of a future bat CoV outbreak in this nation. Therefore, the investigation of bat coronaviruses becomes an urgent issue for the detection of early warning signs, which in turn minimizes the impact of such future outbreaks in China.” The Chinese government, which funded this study through its science academies, did not heed the warning it carried.

Third, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General of WHO, speaking at the World Government Summit, Dubai on 12 February 2018, warned the world, “A devastating epidemic could start in any country at any time and kill millions of people because we are still not prepared. The world remains vulnerable.” The world heard him but did not listen to him.

COVID-19 is not a black swan event. It is a “gray rhino” event, one that is a highly probable and with a potentially large impact. Gray rhino events can be seen in advance because of their size and the early warning they give. Yet, they are ignored. India has had many big gray rhino events in the past.

Recent Indian gray rhino events

India’s record of handling gray rhino events is poor and leaves doubts about how it will handle the coronavirus outbreak. There have been occasions though when it has rolled up its sleeves and done a particularly good job like in the Machilipatnam cyclone or what Kerala is doing now to control COVID-19.

1984 Bhopal gas tragedy: Union Carbide made Sevin, a carbamate group pesticide, in its Bhopal plant. Soon after the plant went into production, Sevin lost market space to the next generation pesticides and the company slipped into losses. Consequently, safety and environmental management standards in the plant declined.

Between 1981-84, the plant had a series of accidents (see Box 6). This prompted journalist Raj Kumar Keshwani to write three articles lamenting on the plant’s poor safety conditions, and warning Bhopal that it was on the brink of a disaster. A state government minister responded saying, “The Carbide plant is not some small pebble that can be picked up and put elsewhere.”

Forty-two tonnes of Methyl Isocyanate (MIC) leaked on the cold winter night of 2 December 1984, killing about 8,000 persons immediately. Another 17,000 died subsequently of chronic toxic effects.

1999 Ersama cyclone: Odisha is hit by a severe cyclone almost every year, and by a super cyclone once every few years. A super cyclone hit Ersama block in coastal Orissa on 29 October 1999. Three 10-metre high storm surges swept everything in their path for up to 20 km inland, killing about 50,000 persons.

2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami: Indonesia is frequently rocked by earthquakes and the offshore ones sometimes generate tsunamis. On 26 December 2004, a 9.1 magnitude offshore earthquake near Sumatra, Indonesia generated tsunami waves that rose to 9 m before they hit coasts of 14 countries along the Indian Ocean rim, and wreaked enormous destruction. About 250,000 persons died, including 10,000 on the Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coasts.

  Information failures increase lives lost

Information plays a critical role in minimizing the probability of a gray rhino event from becoming a disaster. Information throughputs have five stages—generation, transmission, interpretation, access, and use. An information failure at any of these stages increase the probability of a hazard hit converting into a disaster.

The 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami disaster in India was an information generation failure. India did not install seabed sensors in the Bay of Bengal to detect tsunami pressure waves. It was also an information transmission failure as the Indian government was informed about the tsunami soon after it hit the Andaman Islands (see information timeline), which lie close to Sumatra. It took another two hours before the tsunami hit India’s east coast, which was adequate to evacuate fisherfolk inland. Failure to do that was a criminal act of negligence which cost India 10,000 lives.

Information timeline after tsunami wave was generated off the coast of Sumatra, Indonesia 

6.29 am 7.30 am 8.00 am 8.56 am 9.00 am 10.30 am 12.00 noon 5.45 pm Quake strikes Sumatra. India Meteorological Department (IMD) knows about it by 6.40 am, but could not analyse data as its computer developed a snag, Indian Air Force (IAF) Nicobar informs IAF Tambaram, who inform IAF Chief who alerts Defence Min Waves lash Machilipatnam, Chennai, Cuddalore, on India’s southeast coast. Faxes sent to Secretaries of Department of Science & Technology, Home Ministry, Home Minister. Tsunami waves strikes east coasts of India, Sri Lanka. Cabinet Secretary calls Port Blair. Secretary of Ocean Development briefs him. Crisis Manage-ment Group meets.

Indian Navy ships dispatched to Andaman Islands.

The IMD computer being down and not available to analyse the incoming data also made this event an information interpretation failure.

The Bhopal gas tragedy was an information access failure. People in Bhopal were sleeping when a highly toxic MIC gas cloud formed at the Carbide plant and drifted slowly downwind towards JP Nagar, Chola Khenchi slums and areas further south. Being heavier than air, the gas cloud hugged the ground, and remained concentrated as the prevailing low wind speed dispersed it very slowly. People woke up and ran to save themselves. But they ran downwind and remained in the gas cloud, inhaling a large amount of toxic MIC gas.

Had they known that they should move perpendicular to the wind direction, the quickest way to get out of a gas cloud, and cover their nose and mouths with a wet cloth as MIC is soluble in water, many thousands of lives may have been saved, and injury would have been less. Not a single Carbide worker died on the as they were aware that running upwind and away from the gas cloud was the best way to save themselves.

    The Ersama cyclone disaster was an information use failure. The National Remote Sensing Agency (NRSA) provided the Odisha government with satellite pictures of the cyclone’s path for 3 days prior to the cyclone making landfall. Yet, the Odisha government did not use this information. If the coastal population had been evacuated, most of the 50,000 people who lost their lives would have lived.

There are other examples of hazard strike events that became disasters due to information failures. One of them is the 7.5 magnitude (on the Richter scale) Bhuj earthquake that occurred on 26 January 2001. Hundreds of buildings collapsed in several cities in Gujarat killing about 25,000 people and causing a financial loss of Rs 25,000-50,000 crores.

Had the buildings been built to Bureau of Indian Standards (ISI) codes for earthquake resistant structures, far fewer people would have died. BIS codes were available for engineered and non-engineered buildings but were not used, making this event an information use failure.

Bhuj is in a Zone 5 (most earthquake prone) seismic region, making it a high-risk area. Damage to Gujarat Housing Board colonies built to ISI standards, was minimal, but Shikhar Towers, Himgiri Apartments, and 170 other buildings in Ahmadabad crashed as they were not built to ISI standards.

In a quake of similar magnitude that shook Seattle soon after the Bhuj quake happened, only 3 persons died as structures in that city conformed to building standards for earthquakes.

  Lack of emergency response plans and action increase loss of lives

Six elements that constitute emergency response plans and actions (ERPA)—event prediction, warning, hardware and facilities, risk avoidance action by public, emergency response plan (ERP), and the emergency response actions (ERA)—if in place, minimize loss of life when natural or man-made hazards strike. Each missing element increases the probability of the event converting into a disaster and causing great loss of life. A comparison of two cyclones—the 1990 Machilipatnam cyclone that hit the Andhra coast and the 1999 Ersama cyclone—illustrates this point (see Box 7).

Prior information (event prediction) about a hazardous event—its nature, magnitude, hit location and time, lead time between event prediction and hit—helps save lives. Using satellites, IMD tracked the Machilipatnam and Ersama cyclone for several days before they made landfall, and predicted their intensity, landfall location and time accurately. Event predictions for both these cyclones was good.

An effective warning before a hazard hit must fulfil 6 criteria—it should come in time, reach everyone, be appropriate for the event, be unambiguous about the action people should take, sound credible, and be specific to the risk posed by the impending event. The Machilipatnam warning met all these criteria.

The Ersama cyclone warning met the first 3 criteria—it came in time, reached most people on the coast and was appropriate to the event. But it failed the next 3 criteria as it was ambiguous, lacked credibility and was vague. The warning bundled weather and emergency-action information, creating doubt whether people should use their judgement or follow instructions. The warning for the Ersama cyclone was remarkably like the one for a lower intensity cyclone that hit the Ganjam coast 10 days before the Ersama cyclone occurred. As the Ganjam cyclone did not cause much damage or death, going by the similarity between the Ersama and Ganjam cyclone warnings, people thought that Ersama cyclone would be like the Ganjam one. When in doubt people prefer status quo; they stayed home during the Ersama cyclone and were swept away by its giant waves.

The chances of taking risk-avoidance/ mitigation action are higher when people know the risks they face and the choices they have. People in Machilipatnam were ready to evacuate their villages as they had cyclone emergency drills earlier. People in Ersama were not put through such drills and therefore were less aware of the danger they faced and the action they should take to save themselves.

The infrastructure and hardware that Odisha had was highly inadequate--23 cyclone shelters, a police wireless system that died when the cyclone worked itself into a fury, and no backup communication system. Andhra Pradesh had 1,041 cyclone shelters, a police wireless system that could withstood 250 km/hr windspeeds, and a backup active ham radio network.

Odisha had no emergency response plan (ERP) for cyclones and therefore no emergency response action happened in Ersama. Two lakh persons were kept safe in Machilipatnam by evacuating them.

The consequence—50,000 persons died in the Ersama cyclone, even though it happened 9 years after the Machilipatnam cyclone. Less than 1,000 persons died in the Machilipatnam cyclone.

Information failure and lack of emergency response plans will affect India in COVID-19 pandemic

A critical information failure in the COVID-19 outbreak in India is the lack of information on the total number of cases. This can be acquired through extensive testing and good surveillance. But on both counts, India’s effort falls below the curve. When cases are detected at an early stage, they can be isolated immediately and treated. This minimizes the time they are in contact with the people, thus reducing infection spread. India has an information generation failure in its COVID-19 control programme.

Several elements of the emergency response to the coronavirus outbreak in India have failed either partially or entirely.

Event prediction: India was forewarned of the coronavirus outbreak in general way in the form of knowledge of previous virus outbreaks, WHO DG’s warning that a viral epidemic could happen anytime, and the Chinese paper on the possibility of a coronavirus outbreak. India should have had a viral outbreak response plan but does not seem to have one.

The Indian government would have become aware of the coronavirus outbreak in China by early-January 2020. Though there may have been some confusion about the possibility of human to human transmission till 21 January, this was dispelled by the last week of January when WHO declared a global health emergency.

Warning: India had about eight weeks of warning time to prepare before the case numbers started going up sharply towards end-March. Kerala prepared for a coronavirus outbreak from January, but the rest of India did not.

Risk avoidance action by people: As people’s understanding of the risk that coronavirus poses, and the actions they need to take to stay safe is sketchy, their response has been varied. While most people are willing to live with the lockdown, migrants want to return to their villages. Some resistance was visible in Surat in the second week of April when migrants rioted as they wanted transport to return to their villages. Physical distancing is difficult for slum dwellers, and for many ordinary people it is an alien concept.

Infrastructure and facilities: India’s public health system is weak. Isolation and ICU beds, ventilators, doctors, and nursing staff are less than what is required for a large COVID-19 outbreak.

Emergency response plan: The only visible document is the ‘Containment Plan.’ It was prepared in the first week of April and covers plans only for local transmission. Plans for community transmission and epidemics have either not been prepared yet or are not available in public domain.

Emergency response action: India’s response action can best be described as jerky. The way the lockdown was declared gives the impression that the lack of preparedness and the enormity of the problem may have made the government panic. No thought was given to how migrants would respond to a sudden lockdown announcement, and the beating the economy would take because of the break in the supply chain of almost all goods and services, the loss of income to farmers, unorganized labour and self-employed. The steps after lifting the lockdown do not seem to have been thought through either.

India’s actions give the impression that it is playing it by the ear and “muddling through,” which is not the best way to handle a health emergency. But India is not alone in doing this. It has the US, GB and many other countries keeping it company.

Box 5: Pandemics in the last century

Date Deaths Event Disease Location

Jumped into humans from:

1877–1977 500 M Smallpox Worldwide 1899–1923 >800 K Sixth cholera pandemic Cholera Europe, Asia, Africa 1910–12 40 K 1910 China plague Bubonic plague China 1915–26 1.5 M 1915 Encephalitis lethargica pandemic Encephalitis lethargica Worldwide 1918–20 50-100 M Spanish flu Influenza A virus subtype H1N1 Worldwide Pigs 1957–58 2 M Asian flu Influenza A virus subtype H2N2 Worldwide 1968–69 1 M Hong Kong flu Influenza A virus subtype H3N2 Worldwide 1974 15 K 1974 smallpox epidemic of India Smallpox India 1981–present >32 M HIV/AIDS pandemic HIV/AIDS Worldwide Chimpanzees 1998-2018 350-500 Nipah virus infection Nipah Malaysia, Southeast Asia, Kerala (India) Bats 2002-04 774 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) SARS-CoV-1 China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Worldwide Bats, Civet cat 2009-10 150-575 K Swine influenza virus (SIV) Swine flu Worldwide Pigs 2012-17 666 Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) Camel flu Saudi Arabia, South Korea, UAE, Worldwide Bats, Camels 1976-2019 1,590 Ebola outbreak Ebola Sudan, Zaire, Guinea, DR Congo, West Africa Bats 2019-present 80 K on 8 Apr 2020 Coronavirus outbreak COVID-19/ SARS-CoV-2 Worldwide

Bats, Pangolin, or another small mammal

Box 6: Series of accidents in the Union Carbide plant, Bhopal, 1981-84

In 1981, a worker was splashed with phosgene. He ripped off his mask in panic, inhaling a large amount of phosgene gas. He died 72 hours later.

In January 1982, 24 workers exposed to phosgene were hospitalized. None of the workers had been ordered to wear protective masks.

In February 1982, an MIC leak affected 18 workers.

In August 1982, an engineer came into contact with liquid MIC, resulting in 30% body burns.

In October 1982, there was a leak of MIC, methyl carbaryl chloride, chloroform, and hydrochloric acid. In attempting to stop the leak, the MIC supervisor suffered intensive chemical burns and two other workers were severely exposed to the gases.

During 1983 and 1984, leaks of the following substances regularly took place in the MIC plant: MIC, chlorine, monomethylamine, phosgene, and carbon tetrachloride, sometimes in combination.

Reports issued by scientists within the Union Carbide Corporation months before the Dec.2 incident warned of the possibility of an accident almost identical to that which occurred in 1984. The reports were ignored and never reached senior staff.

Union Carbide was warned by American experts who visited the plant after 1981 of the potential of a "runaway reaction” in the MIC storage tank; local Indian authorities warned the company of problems on several occasions from 1979 onwards. Again, these warnings were not heeded.

Box 7: How Emergency Planning and Response Actions save lives

Six factors minimize loss of life during hazard strikes. The Ersama cyclone’s high death toll was because of four factors, and a part of the fifth, were out of place.

Elements of emergency response plan Ersama (1999) Machilipatnam (1990) COVID-19 (2019) 1. Event prediction Nature of expected event Yes Yes Yes Event magnitude Yes Yes Yes Event location Yes Yes No Hit time Yes Yes Difficult to predict Lead time 75 hrs Adequate 1 year 2. Warning In time Yes Yes

India had 10-12 weeks warning time

Reach everyone Yes Yes Yes, reached government Appropriate to event Yes Yes Yes to government Unambiguous No Yes

Initial confusion in WHO’s warning

Credible No Yes

Loss of credibility due to initial confusion

Specific to event No Yes Yes 3. Risk avoidance action People confused People willing to act

People willing to act, some reaction visible

4. Infrastructure

India’s public health system poor

Cyclone shelters 23 1041 Wireless No No Ham radios No Yes 5. Emergency response plan No Yes

‘Containment plan’ is available in public domain. Not known if other ERPs exist

Vulnerable zones mapped Yes Yes Vulnerable structures mapped Yes No Emergency response organization No Yes

NDRF exists, but not trained for epidemics

Emergency response codes No No

Triggers for lockdowns not prepared

Emergency response action plan No Yes 6. Emergency response action No 2 lakh people

Government’s actions jerky, playing by ear

Deaths 50,000 <1.000

  The author is an environmental engineer with specialization in risk analysis

Also Read: 

Coping with the lockdown but is India prepared for an outbreak? — Part 2

Is the COVID-19 pandemic a black swan or a gray rhino event? — Part 1

via Blogger https://ift.tt/2Y2DRH7

[michaelfallcon]

Kazuhiro Nagasawa: The Sprudge Twenty Interview

Kazuhiro Nagasawa (Photo courtesy Kazuhiro Nagasawa)

Welcome to the Sprudge Twenty interviews presented by Pacific Barista Series! Read more about the Sprudge Twenty and see all of our interviews here.

Nominated by Mami Sakamoto

Kazuhiro Nagasawa is an entrepreneur and coffee professional based in Morioka City, some 300 miles from the city of Tokyo on the northern tip of Honshu. He is the owner/operator of his own eponymous small town coffee brand, Nagasawa Coffee, founded in 2012.

Here’s more on why Nagaswa Coffee is special from Mimi Sakamoto’s nominating essay:

“Let me explain a little bit about my hometown, the city of Morioka and its relationship with coffee. Coffee is loved by all generations here, and many families have their favorite coffee roasters and cafes. But what they call ‘coffee’ has traditionally meant a dark roasted, thick, strong tasting drink. When Nagasawa Coffee opened in 2012, their coffee selection had fruity, lighter, or sometimes unique tastes in addition to ‘traditional’ dark ones.

Mr. Nagasawa was not trying to follow ‘in-fashion’ coffee then. His coffee choices are not swayed by trends. Instead, he is cultivating his own world of coffee, traveling from Africa to Taiwan to keep his knowledge current, and expressing everything he’s learned here for the locals. I think this is how a barista in a small town can contribute to change and influence the world of coffee.”

Sprudge Media Network spoke with Nagasawa digitally from Morioka City.

This interview has been lightly edited and condensed for clarity.

What issue in coffee do you care about most?

I care about the future of coffee cultivation, especially how it will be affected by global warming. Secondly, I am concerned about the worldwide rapidly growing demand for coffee, which may lead to an imbalance in supply.

What cause or element in coffee drives you?

In 2011, I encountered the Great East Japan Earthquake, the biggest earthquake that we had ever experienced.

The seacoast areas of Tohoku region, or the North East side of Japan where we live, had massive damage. From day one of the disasters, I couldn’t help thinking that I have to do something.

My desire became stronger day by day and about a month later, there I was, visiting from shelter to shelter of the seaside towns hit by the massive tsunami. Taking a whole day, I served so many people cups of coffee that I couldn’t count how many they were every day. The more I served, the more people became delighted, thankful for me with many smiles. Some of the victims even told me, “thank you very much for coming over to such a terrible disaster area,” and I was unexpectedly encouraged by those words.

During this activity, I strongly felt the magic and miracle power of coffee that made me think deeply about how good it was to be involved in the world of coffee. Unlike water or foods, we can live without coffee. However, at the moment you have a sip of coffee, a joy arises. Feeling healed, a calm space is born, and smiles overflow. That strange feeling that I had under that ultimate and devastating natural circumstance made me mad about coffee more than ever.

What issue in coffee do you think is critically overlooked?

The reality of coffee grower’s poverty.

What is the quality you like best about coffee?

Coffee can take us beyond countries, regions, languages, ethnic background, and religions. It provides us opportunities to share our common values. I believe it is a wonderful drink that connects people to people all over the world.

Did you experience a “god shot” or life-changing moment of coffee revelation early in your career?

A long, long time ago, one day, I hiked up to the top of a mountain for snowboarding. It was a tremendously cold day, and I was almost freezing. Then, somebody poured a cup of hot coffee from a thermos for me. I vividly remember the scene and its unforgettably delicious taste of the coffee still now.

It was not that tasty as we could call “specialty,” it was precisely my life-changing moment that made me realize it all depends on the environment or situation; we could find any coffee to be the best coffee. I could say it was a very precious discovery for my career.

What is your idea of coffee happiness?

My idea of coffee happiness is: Coffee is always a side player, not takes a leading role but it still beside us when we need it. Coffee is always there when important decisions are made or brilliant inventions are found in history. I think what coffee happiness truly means is bringing to us our everyday life itself. No drama needed. Spending our daily lives with a cup of coffee is such a wonderful treat. Also, I would like to always be with coffee as a part of people’s ordinary lives.

If you could have any job in the coffee industry, what would it be and why?

I would be a coffee farmer and cultivate coffee from scratch all by myself. My town, Morioka, is very cold in winter, so it’s impossible to grow coffee here. So I have an aspiration to commit to producing coffee.

Who are your coffee heroes?

All the customers who come to my store, including the past and future visitors, are my heroes. Without any supports by all of them, we, Nagasawa Coffee, don’t exist.

If you could drink coffee with anyone, living or dead, who would it be and why?

No doubt, it would be John Lennon. Although John and I are not the same age, we share the same birthday, and unilaterally I have admired him for many years. If this were to happen, for me to drink coffee with him, it would be amazing. However, to speak honestly, I would like to have a drink of something stronger than coffee if given the chance with John Lennon!

If you didn’t get bit by the coffee bug, what do you think you’d be doing instead?

I would be a professional snowboarder (if my age does not matter). I have quite a long career in snowboarding, and there are a lot of great places to go snowboarding with ideal snow conditions around my city.

Do you have any coffee mentors?

Nope. Nobody. I started my career in coffee by self-study and have kept it that way to the present.

What do you wish someone would’ve told you when you were first starting out in coffee?

When I first started in coffee, I knew nobody who was in the coffee industry then. I had to go very far to find my way. If I could have some advice from somebody, it would be much more comfortable. However, as much tough time as I been through, I now feel I am making good use of my past experiences.

Name three coffee apparatuses you’d take into space with you.

I would choose just one. AeroPress. I want to challenge pressing in weightless space.

Best song to brew coffee to?

Something by the artist French Kiwi Juice.

Look into the crystal ball—where do you see yourself in 20 years?

I can see I am on the southern island of Japan, and enjoying watching coffee cherries.

What’d you eat for breakfast this morning?

I had natto (fermented soybeans), white rice, grilled fish and miso soup. Quite a traditional Japanese breakfast.

When did you last drink coffee? What was it?

I would prefer to tell you when I drank coffee for the very first time, because I feel like my last coffee is always in the future. So, I think I was nine years old or so back then. My father brought coffee beans at a local coffee shop and brewed it in a siphon for me. I do not remember what coffee it was. Despite my father’s solemn and polite conduct, I could not understand the taste of the coffee at all. It has become a good memory of my late father.

Thank you. 

The Sprudge Twenty is presented by Pacific Barista Series. For a complete list of 2019 Sprudge Twenty honorees please visit sprudge.com/twenty

Zachary Carlsen is a co-founder and editor at Sprudge Media Network. Read more Zachary Carlsen on Sprudge. 

The post Kazuhiro Nagasawa: The Sprudge Twenty Interview appeared first on Sprudge.

Kazuhiro Nagasawa: The Sprudge Twenty Interview published first on https://medium.com/@LinLinCoffee

[mrwilliamcharley]

Kazuhiro Nagasawa: The Sprudge Twenty Interview

Kazuhiro Nagasawa (Photo courtesy Kazuhiro Nagasawa)

Welcome to the Sprudge Twenty interviews presented by Pacific Barista Series! Read more about the Sprudge Twenty and see all of our interviews here.

Nominated by Mami Sakamoto

Kazuhiro Nagasawa is an entrepreneur and coffee professional based in Morioka City, some 300 miles from the city of Tokyo on the northern tip of Honshu. He is the owner/operator of his own eponymous small town coffee brand, Nagasawa Coffee, founded in 2012.

Here’s more on why Nagaswa Coffee is special from Mimi Sakamoto’s nominating essay:

“Let me explain a little bit about my hometown, the city of Morioka and its relationship with coffee. Coffee is loved by all generations here, and many families have their favorite coffee roasters and cafes. But what they call ‘coffee’ has traditionally meant a dark roasted, thick, strong tasting drink. When Nagasawa Coffee opened in 2012, their coffee selection had fruity, lighter, or sometimes unique tastes in addition to ‘traditional’ dark ones.

Mr. Nagasawa was not trying to follow ‘in-fashion’ coffee then. His coffee choices are not swayed by trends. Instead, he is cultivating his own world of coffee, traveling from Africa to Taiwan to keep his knowledge current, and expressing everything he’s learned here for the locals. I think this is how a barista in a small town can contribute to change and influence the world of coffee.”

Sprudge Media Network spoke with Nagasawa digitally from Morioka City.

This interview has been lightly edited and condensed for clarity.

What issue in coffee do you care about most?

I care about the future of coffee cultivation, especially how it will be affected by global warming. Secondly, I am concerned about the worldwide rapidly growing demand for coffee, which may lead to an imbalance in supply.

What cause or element in coffee drives you?

In 2011, I encountered the Great East Japan Earthquake, the biggest earthquake that we had ever experienced.

The seacoast areas of Tohoku region, or the North East side of Japan where we live, had massive damage. From day one of the disasters, I couldn’t help thinking that I have to do something.

My desire became stronger day by day and about a month later, there I was, visiting from shelter to shelter of the seaside towns hit by the massive tsunami. Taking a whole day, I served so many people cups of coffee that I couldn’t count how many they were every day. The more I served, the more people became delighted, thankful for me with many smiles. Some of the victims even told me, “thank you very much for coming over to such a terrible disaster area,” and I was unexpectedly encouraged by those words.

During this activity, I strongly felt the magic and miracle power of coffee that made me think deeply about how good it was to be involved in the world of coffee. Unlike water or foods, we can live without coffee. However, at the moment you have a sip of coffee, a joy arises. Feeling healed, a calm space is born, and smiles overflow. That strange feeling that I had under that ultimate and devastating natural circumstance made me mad about coffee more than ever.

What issue in coffee do you think is critically overlooked?

The reality of coffee grower’s poverty.

What is the quality you like best about coffee?

Coffee can take us beyond countries, regions, languages, ethnic background, and religions. It provides us opportunities to share our common values. I believe it is a wonderful drink that connects people to people all over the world.

Did you experience a “god shot” or life-changing moment of coffee revelation early in your career?

A long, long time ago, one day, I hiked up to the top of a mountain for snowboarding. It was a tremendously cold day, and I was almost freezing. Then, somebody poured a cup of hot coffee from a thermos for me. I vividly remember the scene and its unforgettably delicious taste of the coffee still now.

It was not that tasty as we could call “specialty,” it was precisely my life-changing moment that made me realize it all depends on the environment or situation; we could find any coffee to be the best coffee. I could say it was a very precious discovery for my career.

What is your idea of coffee happiness?

My idea of coffee happiness is: Coffee is always a side player, not takes a leading role but it still beside us when we need it. Coffee is always there when important decisions are made or brilliant inventions are found in history. I think what coffee happiness truly means is bringing to us our everyday life itself. No drama needed. Spending our daily lives with a cup of coffee is such a wonderful treat. Also, I would like to always be with coffee as a part of people’s ordinary lives.

If you could have any job in the coffee industry, what would it be and why?

I would be a coffee farmer and cultivate coffee from scratch all by myself. My town, Morioka, is very cold in winter, so it’s impossible to grow coffee here. So I have an aspiration to commit to producing coffee.

Who are your coffee heroes?

All the customers who come to my store, including the past and future visitors, are my heroes. Without any supports by all of them, we, Nagasawa Coffee, don’t exist.

If you could drink coffee with anyone, living or dead, who would it be and why?

No doubt, it would be John Lennon. Although John and I are not the same age, we share the same birthday, and unilaterally I have admired him for many years. If this were to happen, for me to drink coffee with him, it would be amazing. However, to speak honestly, I would like to have a drink of something stronger than coffee if given the chance with John Lennon!

If you didn’t get bit by the coffee bug, what do you think you’d be doing instead?

I would be a professional snowboarder (if my age does not matter). I have quite a long career in snowboarding, and there are a lot of great places to go snowboarding with ideal snow conditions around my city.

Do you have any coffee mentors?

Nope. Nobody. I started my career in coffee by self-study and have kept it that way to the present.

What do you wish someone would’ve told you when you were first starting out in coffee?

When I first started in coffee, I knew nobody who was in the coffee industry then. I had to go very far to find my way. If I could have some advice from somebody, it would be much more comfortable. However, as much tough time as I been through, I now feel I am making good use of my past experiences.

Name three coffee apparatuses you’d take into space with you.

I would choose just one. AeroPress. I want to challenge pressing in weightless space.

Best song to brew coffee to?

Something by the artist French Kiwi Juice.

Look into the crystal ball—where do you see yourself in 20 years?

I can see I am on the southern island of Japan, and enjoying watching coffee cherries.

What’d you eat for breakfast this morning?

I had natto (fermented soybeans), white rice, grilled fish and miso soup. Quite a traditional Japanese breakfast.

When did you last drink coffee? What was it?

I would prefer to tell you when I drank coffee for the very first time, because I feel like my last coffee is always in the future. So, I think I was nine years old or so back then. My father brought coffee beans at a local coffee shop and brewed it in a siphon for me. I do not remember what coffee it was. Despite my father’s solemn and polite conduct, I could not understand the taste of the coffee at all. It has become a good memory of my late father.

Thank you. 

The Sprudge Twenty is presented by Pacific Barista Series. For a complete list of 2019 Sprudge Twenty honorees please visit sprudge.com/twenty

Zachary Carlsen is a co-founder and editor at Sprudge Media Network. Read more Zachary Carlsen on Sprudge. 

The post Kazuhiro Nagasawa: The Sprudge Twenty Interview appeared first on Sprudge.

from Sprudge http://bit.ly/2V8BDpf

[shebreathesslowly]

Kazuhiro Nagasawa: The Sprudge Twenty Interview

Kazuhiro Nagasawa (Photo courtesy Kazuhiro Nagasawa)

Welcome to the Sprudge Twenty interviews presented by Pacific Barista Series! Read more about the Sprudge Twenty and see all of our interviews here.

Nominated by Mami Sakamoto

Kazuhiro Nagasawa is an entrepreneur and coffee professional based in Morioka City, some 300 miles from the city of Tokyo on the northern tip of Honshu. He is the owner/operator of his own eponymous small town coffee brand, Nagasawa Coffee, founded in 2012.

Here’s more on why Nagaswa Coffee is special from Mimi Sakamoto’s nominating essay:

“Let me explain a little bit about my hometown, the city of Morioka and its relationship with coffee. Coffee is loved by all generations here, and many families have their favorite coffee roasters and cafes. But what they call ‘coffee’ has traditionally meant a dark roasted, thick, strong tasting drink. When Nagasawa Coffee opened in 2012, their coffee selection had fruity, lighter, or sometimes unique tastes in addition to ‘traditional’ dark ones.

Mr. Nagasawa was not trying to follow ‘in-fashion’ coffee then. His coffee choices are not swayed by trends. Instead, he is cultivating his own world of coffee, traveling from Africa to Taiwan to keep his knowledge current, and expressing everything he’s learned here for the locals. I think this is how a barista in a small town can contribute to change and influence the world of coffee.”

Sprudge Media Network spoke with Nagasawa digitally from Morioka City.

This interview has been lightly edited and condensed for clarity.

What issue in coffee do you care about most?

I care about the future of coffee cultivation, especially how it will be affected by global warming. Secondly, I am concerned about the worldwide rapidly growing demand for coffee, which may lead to an imbalance in supply.

What cause or element in coffee drives you?

In 2011, I encountered the Great East Japan Earthquake, the biggest earthquake that we had ever experienced.

The seacoast areas of Tohoku region, or the North East side of Japan where we live, had massive damage. From day one of the disasters, I couldn’t help thinking that I have to do something.

My desire became stronger day by day and about a month later, there I was, visiting from shelter to shelter of the seaside towns hit by the massive tsunami. Taking a whole day, I served so many people cups of coffee that I couldn’t count how many they were every day. The more I served, the more people became delighted, thankful for me with many smiles. Some of the victims even told me, “thank you very much for coming over to such a terrible disaster area,” and I was unexpectedly encouraged by those words.

During this activity, I strongly felt the magic and miracle power of coffee that made me think deeply about how good it was to be involved in the world of coffee. Unlike water or foods, we can live without coffee. However, at the moment you have a sip of coffee, a joy arises. Feeling healed, a calm space is born, and smiles overflow. That strange feeling that I had under that ultimate and devastating natural circumstance made me mad about coffee more than ever.

What issue in coffee do you think is critically overlooked?

The reality of coffee grower’s poverty.

What is the quality you like best about coffee?

Coffee can take us beyond countries, regions, languages, ethnic background, and religions. It provides us opportunities to share our common values. I believe it is a wonderful drink that connects people to people all over the world.

Did you experience a ��god shot” or life-changing moment of coffee revelation early in your career?

A long, long time ago, one day, I hiked up to the top of a mountain for snowboarding. It was a tremendously cold day, and I was almost freezing. Then, somebody poured a cup of hot coffee from a thermos for me. I vividly remember the scene and its unforgettably delicious taste of the coffee still now.

It was not that tasty as we could call “specialty,” it was precisely my life-changing moment that made me realize it all depends on the environment or situation; we could find any coffee to be the best coffee. I could say it was a very precious discovery for my career.

What is your idea of coffee happiness?

My idea of coffee happiness is: Coffee is always a side player, not takes a leading role but it still beside us when we need it. Coffee is always there when important decisions are made or brilliant inventions are found in history. I think what coffee happiness truly means is bringing to us our everyday life itself. No drama needed. Spending our daily lives with a cup of coffee is such a wonderful treat. Also, I would like to always be with coffee as a part of people’s ordinary lives.

If you could have any job in the coffee industry, what would it be and why?

I would be a coffee farmer and cultivate coffee from scratch all by myself. My town, Morioka, is very cold in winter, so it’s impossible to grow coffee here. So I have an aspiration to commit to producing coffee.

Who are your coffee heroes?

All the customers who come to my store, including the past and future visitors, are my heroes. Without any supports by all of them, we, Nagasawa Coffee, don’t exist.

If you could drink coffee with anyone, living or dead, who would it be and why?

No doubt, it would be John Lennon. Although John and I are not the same age, we share the same birthday, and unilaterally I have admired him for many years. If this were to happen, for me to drink coffee with him, it would be amazing. However, to speak honestly, I would like to have a drink of something stronger than coffee if given the chance with John Lennon!

If you didn’t get bit by the coffee bug, what do you think you’d be doing instead?

I would be a professional snowboarder (if my age does not matter). I have quite a long career in snowboarding, and there are a lot of great places to go snowboarding with ideal snow conditions around my city.

Do you have any coffee mentors?

Nope. Nobody. I started my career in coffee by self-study and have kept it that way to the present.

What do you wish someone would’ve told you when you were first starting out in coffee?

When I first started in coffee, I knew nobody who was in the coffee industry then. I had to go very far to find my way. If I could have some advice from somebody, it would be much more comfortable. However, as much tough time as I been through, I now feel I am making good use of my past experiences.

Name three coffee apparatuses you’d take into space with you.

I would choose just one. AeroPress. I want to challenge pressing in weightless space.

Best song to brew coffee to?

Something by the artist French Kiwi Juice.

Look into the crystal ball—where do you see yourself in 20 years?

I can see I am on the southern island of Japan, and enjoying watching coffee cherries.

What’d you eat for breakfast this morning?

I had natto (fermented soybeans), white rice, grilled fish and miso soup. Quite a traditional Japanese breakfast.

When did you last drink coffee? What was it?

I would prefer to tell you when I drank coffee for the very first time, because I feel like my last coffee is always in the future. So, I think I was nine years old or so back then. My father brought coffee beans at a local coffee shop and brewed it in a siphon for me. I do not remember what coffee it was. Despite my father’s solemn and polite conduct, I could not understand the taste of the coffee at all. It has become a good memory of my late father.

Thank you. 

The Sprudge Twenty is presented by Pacific Barista Series. For a complete list of 2019 Sprudge Twenty honorees please visit sprudge.com/twenty

Zachary Carlsen is a co-founder and editor at Sprudge Media Network. Read more Zachary Carlsen on Sprudge. 

The post Kazuhiro Nagasawa: The Sprudge Twenty Interview appeared first on Sprudge.

from Sprudge http://bit.ly/2V8BDpf

[floridaindependent-blog]

Diesel vs Gas Generator: What's the Difference? And Which Do You Need?

New Post has been published on https://floridaindependent.com/diesel-vs-gas-generator-whats-the-difference-and-which-do-you-need/

Diesel vs Gas Generator: What's the Difference? And Which Do You Need?

Worldwide energy demand grew by almost 3% last year to its highest point in human history. Energy consumption is only projected to go up given 3rd world countries like India becoming more affluent and citizens beginning to invest in power-hungry appliances like refrigerators and air conditioners.

What does that mean for you?

Not too much today, unless you live in a 3rd world country where energy demand is exploding.

In the very near future though, high levels of global energy use will start to impact your local community and when that happens, blackouts will become more frequent as governments struggle to bolster energy grids.

To keep lights on in the face of adversity, many people turn to portable power generators. Below, our team tackles the age-old diesel vs gas generator debate so you’ll know which is the best choice for your family or business.

Gas Generators

Gas power generators are the most popular fuel-based generator on the market. These generators can be purchased at most hardware stores and across many popular online marketplaces.

While natural gas generators might be people’s knee-jerk purchase choice when shopping for a portable primary or backup energy solution, it’s important to review this generator’s 3 primary pros and cons before making the commitment to buy.

Pro – Fuel Availability

If you have natural gas lines running into your home or business, you can hook your generator directly into them so that it can convert your gas into power. The beauty of this setup is that during a power outage, if your gas is still running, you’ll be able to supply your home with an unlimited amount of energy.

Pro – Cost

Given the abundance of natural gas and its easy accessibility, you’ll find that the cost per minute when running a natural gas generator is much lower than the cost that you’ll encounter with a diesel generator.

Pro – Environmentally Friendly

If being good to the environment is an important component of the diesel vs gas generator debate for you, then gas generators have the upper hand. Natural gas emits less harmful waste into the atmosphere than similar fossil fuels.

Con – Lifespan

Generally speaking, gas generators tend to lose their operational efficiency faster than comparable diesel generators.

Con – Reliance on Natural Gas Flow

Many people purchase natural gas generators because they like the idea of being able to plug it into their gas lines. Unfortunately, during natural disasters, gas lines may go down. If you’re not prepared, that occurrence could render your generator unusable.

Con – Explosiveness

Natural gas is more explosive than diesel fuel. If you make a mistake when managing your generator, you could cause serious damage.

Diesel Generators

While not as popular as gas generators, diesel generators boast a number of unique advantages over natural gas. Diesel technology is not without its disadvantages as well though.

Here are this style of generator’s 6 primary pros and cons.

Pro – Easy Maintenance

Diesel generators are built to require little to no maintenance over the course of their manufacturer’s stated lifetime. Consequently, if you’re not mechanically inclined, this generator could be a good fit for you.

Pro – Compact Size

Diesel technology is a lot more compact than the technology that’s required to process natural gas into energy. Because of that, many diesel generators will be significantly smaller and less heavy than comparable gas generators.

Pro – Safety

Having a generator that processes fuel is dangerous. Diesel fuel makes things a lot safer. Diesel is nowhere near as explosive as natural gas which means operational errors and device malfunctions won’t lead to the same grave consequences that a natural gas generator might cause.

Con – Fluctuating Prices

Diesel fuel must be acquired at local gas pumps and as we all know, gas prices fluctuate weekly with the global stock/commodity markets. This can lead to uncertainty around how much your generator will cost to run.

Con – Noise

Processing diesel fuel into energy is a noisy process. If that’s a deal-breaker for you, then you may be better off sticking with natural gas.

Con – Tier 4 Regulations Make Pricing Even More Convoluted

Tier 4 regulations are a series of standards that manufacturers must adhere to in order to be in compliance with environmental rules. These standards are often complicated and costly for manufacturers to remain in lockstep with.

With regulations becoming more stringent as the world becomes more environmentally conscious, the cost of diesel fuel and their generators may rise as well.

So, Which Generator Do You Need?

Now that you understand more about the diesel vs gas generator debate, the big question is which generator reins supreme? As with most things, that question depends on your personal needs.

If you’re looking for low-cost and easy accessibility then you’re better off investing in a gas generator. If you’re looking for a generator that’s safe, small and relatively plug and play, opt for diesel.

Wrapping Up The Diesel vs Gas Generator Debate

We’ve just gone over all of the key differences when comparing diesel vs gas generator systems. No matter which generator you opt for, what’s important is that you pick up one or the other.

Whether it’s to get through an energy crisis or it’s to power an impromptu outdoor event, every home and business can rest a little easier with a power generator sitting in its storage space.

Want to read more poignant lifestyle content? Looking to know more about the world around you?

Whatever it is that you’re hungry to learn about, our team at Florida Independent has you covered. Dive into more of our content today!

[djgblogger-blog]

Space weather threatens high-tech life

http://bit.ly/2pObbyI

A coronal mass ejection erupts from the sun in 2012. NASA

Shortly after 4 a.m. on a crisp, cloudless September morning in 1859, the sky above what is currently Colorado erupted in bright red and green colors. Fooled by the brightness into thinking it was an early dawn, gold-rush miners in the mountainous region of what was then called the Kansas Territory woke up and started making breakfast. What happened in more developed regions was even more disorienting, and carries a warning for the wired high-tech world of the 21st century.

As the sky lit up over the nighttime side of the Earth, telegraph systems worldwide went berserk, clacking nonsense code and emitting large sparks that ignited fires in nearby piles of paper tape. Telegraph operators suffered electrical burns. Even disconnecting the telegraph units from their power sources didn’t stop the frenzy, because the transmission wires themselves were carrying huge electrical currents. Modern technology had just been humbled by a fierce space weather storm that had arrived from the sun, the largest ever recorded – and more than twice as powerful as a storm nine years earlier, which had itself been the largest in known history.

My seven years of research on predicting solar storms, combined with my decades using GPS satellite signals under various solar storm conditions, indicate that today’s even more sensitive electronics and satellites would be devastated should an event of that magnitude occur again. In 2008, a panel of experts commissioned by the National Academy of Sciences issued a detailed report with a sobering conclusion: The world would be thrown back to the life of the early 1800s, and it would take years – or even a decade – to recover from an event that large.

A solar explosion

Space weather storms have happened since the birth of the solar system, and have hit Earth many times, both before and after that massive event in 1859, which was named the Carrington event after a British astronomer who recorded his observations of the sun at the time. They’re caused by huge electromagnetic explosions on the surface of the sun, called coronal mass ejections. Each explosion sends billions of protons and electrons, in a superheated ball of plasma, out into the solar system.

About 1 in every 20 coronal mass ejections heads in a direction that intersects Earth’s orbit. Around three days later, our planet experiences what is called a space weather storm or a geomagnetic storm.

While these events are described using terms like “weather” and “storm,” they do not affect whether it’s rainy or sunny, hot or cold, or other aspects of what it’s like outdoors on any given day. Their effects are not meteorological, but only electromagnetic.

Aurorae are signs of a geomagnetic storm. NASA/Terry Zaperach

Hitting Earth

When the coronal mass ejection arrives at Earth, the charged particles collide with air molecules in the upper atmosphere, generating heat and light called aurora.

Also, as happens anytime moving electrical charges encounter a magnetic field, the interaction creates a spontaneous electrical current in any conductor that’s available. If the plasma ball is big enough, its interaction with Earth’s magnetic field can induce large currents on long wires on the ground, like the one that overloaded telegraph circuits in 1859.

On March 13, 1989, a storm only about one-fifth as strong as the Carrington event hit Earth. It induced a large surge of current in the long power lines of the Hydro-Quebec power grid, causing physical damage to transmission equipment and leaving 6 million people without power for nine hours. Another storm-induced power surge destroyed a large transformer at a New Jersey nuclear plant. Even though a spare transformer was nearby, it still took six months to remove and replace the melted unit. Some people worried that the bright auroral lights meant nuclear war had broken out.

And in October 2003, a rapid series of solar storms affected Earth. Collectively called the Halloween solar storm, this series caused surges that threatened the North American power grid. Its effects on satellites made GPS navigation erratic and interrupted communications connections during the peak of the storm.

Larger storms will have wider effects, cause more damage and take longer to recover from.

Wide-reaching effects

Geomagnetic storms attack the lifeblood of modern technology: electricity. A space weather storm typically lasts for two or three days, during which the entire planet is subjected to powerful electromagnetic forces. The National Academy of Sciences study concluded that an especially massive storm would damage and shut town power grids and communications networks worldwide.

Electricity, shown in the upper right, is integrated into every aspect of modern life. Federal Communications Commission

After the storm passed, there would be no simple way to restore power. Manufacturing plants that build replacements for burned-out lines or power transformers would have no electricity themselves. Trucks needed to deliver raw materials and finished equipment wouldn’t be able to fuel up, either: Gas pumps run on electricity. And what pumps were running would soon dry up, because electricity also runs the machinery that extracts oil from the ground and refines it into usable fuel.

With transportation stalled, food wouldn’t get from farms to stores. Even systems that seem non-technological, like public water supplies, would shut down: Their pumps and purification systems need electricity. People in developed countries would find themselves with no running water, no sewage systems, no refrigerated food, and no way to get any food or other necessities transported from far away. People in places with more basic economies would also be without needed supplies from afar.

It could take between four and 10 years to repair all the damage. In the meantime, people would need to grow their own food, find and carry and purify water, and cook meals over fires.

Some systems would continue to operate, of course: bicycles, horse-drawn carriages and sailing ships. But another type of equipment that would keep working provides a clue to preventing this type of disaster: Electric cars would continue to work, but only in places where there were solar panels and wind turbines to recharge them.

Preparing and protecting

Geomagnetic storms would affect those small-scale installations far less than grid-scale systems. It’s a basic principle of electricity and magnetism that the longer a wire that’s exposed to a moving magnetic field, the larger the current that’s induced in that wire.

In 1859, the telegraph system was so profoundly affected because it had wires stretching from city to city across the U.S. Those very long wires had to handle enormous amounts of energy all at once, and failed. Today, there are long runs of wires connecting power generators to consumers – such as from Niagara Falls to New York City – that would be similarly susceptible to large induced currents.

The only way to reduce vulnerability to geomagnetic storms is to substantially revamp the power grid. Now, it is a vast web of wires that effectively spans continents. Governments, businesses and communities need to work together to split it into much smaller components, each serving a town or perhaps even a neighborhood – or an individual house. These “microgrids” can be connected to each other, but should have protections built in to allow them to be disconnected quickly when a storm approaches. That way, the length of wires affected by the storm will be shorter, reducing the potential for damage.

A family using solar panels and batteries for storage and an electric car to get around would likely find its water supply, natural gas or internet service disrupted. But their freedom to travel, and to use electric lights to work after dark, would provide a much better chance at survival.

When will the next storm hit?

People should start preparing today. It’s impossible to know when a major storm will hit next: The most we’ll get is a three-day warning when something happens on the surface of the sun. It’s really only a matter of time before there is another one like the Carrington event.

Solar astrophysicists are also studying the sun to identify any events or conditions that might herald a coronal mass ejection. They’re collecting enormous amounts of data about the sun and using computer analysis to try to connect that information to geomagnetic storms on Earth. This work is underway and will become more refined over time. The research has not yet yielded a reliable prediction of a coming solar storm before an ejection occurs, but it improves each year.

In my view, the safest course of action involves developing microgrids based on renewable energy. That would not only improve people’s quality of life around the planet right now, but also provide the best opportunity to maintain that lifestyle when adverse events happen.

Roger Dube has previously received funding from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).

[brajeshupadhyay]

The Dutch sea captain Willem de Vlamingh never imagined in his wildest dreams that black swans could exist. He never saw or heard of one in Europe. In January 1697 he and his crew sailed up a river, later named Swan River, in Southwestern Australia to explore it. And much to their utter amazement they became the first Europeans to see black swans. “Black swan” events are extremely rare and highly improbable events. They share three characteristics: 1) they are unpredictable 2) they have a massive impact 3) post the event, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random and more predictable. Is the COVID-19 outbreak a black swan event? Here are three reasons why it is not an unpredictable event. First, there have been more than a dozen serious epidemics, many of them worldwide, in the last 100 years (see Box 5). The Spanish flu and smallpox killed 50 million people each. Eighteen million Indians died of Spanish flu. HIV killed 30 million people. The Asian flu and Hong Kong flu killed at least a million people each. But they have faded quickly from public memory. Second, a paper is written by four Chinese scientists titled, Bat Coronaviruses in China, published on 2 March 2019, specifically warned, “it is highly likely that future SARS- or MERS-like coronavirus outbreaks will originate from bats, and there is an increased probability that this will occur in China. Two bat origin CoVs caused large-scale epidemics in China over fourteen years, highlighting the risk of a future bat CoV outbreak in this nation. Therefore, the investigation of bat coronaviruses becomes an urgent issue for the detection of early warning signs, which in turn minimizes the impact of such future outbreaks in China.” The Chinese government, which funded this study through its science academies, did not heed the warning it carried. Third, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General of WHO, speaking at the World Government Summit, Dubai on 12 February 2018, warned the world, “A devastating epidemic could start in any country at any time and kill millions of people because we are still not prepared. The world remains vulnerable.” The world heard him but did not listen to him. COVID-19 is not a black swan event. It is a “gray rhino” event, one that is a highly probable and with a potentially large impact. Gray rhino events can be seen in advance because of their size and the early warning they give. Yet, they are ignored. India has had many big gray rhino events in the past. Recent Indian gray rhino events India’s record of handling gray rhino events is poor and leaves doubts about how it will handle the coronavirus outbreak. There have been occasions though when it has rolled up its sleeves and done a particularly good job like in the Machilipatnam cyclone or what Kerala is doing now to control COVID-19. 1984 Bhopal gas tragedy: Union Carbide made Sevin, a carbamate group pesticide, in its Bhopal plant. Soon after the plant went into production, Sevin lost market space to the next generation pesticides and the company slipped into losses. Consequently, safety and environmental management standards in the plant declined. Between 1981-84, the plant had a series of accidents (see Box 6). This prompted journalist Raj Kumar Keshwani to write three articles lamenting on the plant’s poor safety conditions, and warning Bhopal that it was on the brink of a disaster. A state government minister responded saying, “The Carbide plant is not some small pebble that can be picked up and put elsewhere.” Forty-two tonnes of Methyl Isocyanate (MIC) leaked on the cold winter night of 2 December 1984, killing about 8,000 persons immediately. Another 17,000 died subsequently of chronic toxic effects. 1999 Ersama cyclone: Odisha is hit by a severe cyclone almost every year, and by a super cyclone once every few years. A super cyclone hit Ersama block in coastal Orissa on 29 October 1999. Three 10-metre high storm surges swept everything in their path for up to 20 km inland, killing about 50,000 persons. 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami: Indonesia is frequently rocked by earthquakes and the offshore ones sometimes generate tsunamis. On 26 December 2004, a 9.1 magnitude offshore earthquake near Sumatra, Indonesia generated tsunami waves that rose to 9 m before they hit coasts of 14 countries along the Indian Ocean rim, and wreaked enormous destruction. About 250,000 persons died, including 10,000 on the Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coasts.   Information failures increase lives lost Information plays a critical role in minimizing the probability of a gray rhino event from becoming a disaster. Information throughputs have five stages—generation, transmission, interpretation, access, and use. An information failure at any of these stages increase the probability of a hazard hit converting into a disaster. The 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami disaster in India was an information generation failure. India did not install seabed sensors in the Bay of Bengal to detect tsunami pressure waves. It was also an information transmission failure as the Indian government was informed about the tsunami soon after it hit the Andaman Islands (see information timeline), which lie close to Sumatra. It took another two hours before the tsunami hit India’s east coast, which was adequate to evacuate fisherfolk inland. Failure to do that was a criminal act of negligence which cost India 10,000 lives. Information timeline after tsunami wave was generated off the coast of Sumatra, Indonesia  6.29 am 7.30 am 8.00 am 8.56 am 9.00 am 10.30 am 12.00 noon 5.45 pm Quake strikes Sumatra. India Meteorological Department (IMD) knows about it by 6.40 am, but could not analyse data as its computer developed a snag, Indian Air Force (IAF) Nicobar informs IAF Tambaram, who inform IAF Chief who alerts Defence Min Waves lash Machilipatnam, Chennai, Cuddalore, on India’s southeast coast. Faxes sent to Secretaries of Department of Science & Technology, Home Ministry, Home Minister. Tsunami waves strikes east coasts of India, Sri Lanka. Cabinet Secretary calls Port Blair. Secretary of Ocean Development briefs him. Crisis Manage-ment Group meets. Indian Navy ships dispatched to Andaman Islands. The IMD computer being down and not available to analyse the incoming data also made this event an information interpretation failure. The Bhopal gas tragedy was an information access failure. People in Bhopal were sleeping when a highly toxic MIC gas cloud formed at the Carbide plant and drifted slowly downwind towards JP Nagar, Chola Khenchi slums and areas further south. Being heavier than air, the gas cloud hugged the ground, and remained concentrated as the prevailing low wind speed dispersed it very slowly. People woke up and ran to save themselves. But they ran downwind and remained in the gas cloud, inhaling a large amount of toxic MIC gas. Had they known that they should move perpendicular to the wind direction, the quickest way to get out of a gas cloud, and cover their nose and mouths with a wet cloth as MIC is soluble in water, many thousands of lives may have been saved, and injury would have been less. Not a single Carbide worker died on the as they were aware that running upwind and away from the gas cloud was the best way to save themselves.     The Ersama cyclone disaster was an information use failure. The National Remote Sensing Agency (NRSA) provided the Odisha government with satellite pictures of the cyclone’s path for 3 days prior to the cyclone making landfall. Yet, the Odisha government did not use this information. If the coastal population had been evacuated, most of the 50,000 people who lost their lives would have lived. There are other examples of hazard strike events that became disasters due to information failures. One of them is the 7.5 magnitude (on the Richter scale) Bhuj earthquake that occurred on 26 January 2001. Hundreds of buildings collapsed in several cities in Gujarat killing about 25,000 people and causing a financial loss of Rs 25,000-50,000 crores. Had the buildings been built to Bureau of Indian Standards (ISI) codes for earthquake resistant structures, far fewer people would have died. BIS codes were available for engineered and non-engineered buildings but were not used, making this event an information use failure. Bhuj is in a Zone 5 (most earthquake prone) seismic region, making it a high-risk area. Damage to Gujarat Housing Board colonies built to ISI standards, was minimal, but Shikhar Towers, Himgiri Apartments, and 170 other buildings in Ahmadabad crashed as they were not built to ISI standards. In a quake of similar magnitude that shook Seattle soon after the Bhuj quake happened, only 3 persons died as structures in that city conformed to building standards for earthquakes.   Lack of emergency response plans and action increase loss of lives Six elements that constitute emergency response plans and actions (ERPA)—event prediction, warning, hardware and facilities, risk avoidance action by public, emergency response plan (ERP), and the emergency response actions (ERA)—if in place, minimize loss of life when natural or man-made hazards strike. Each missing element increases the probability of the event converting into a disaster and causing great loss of life. A comparison of two cyclones—the 1990 Machilipatnam cyclone that hit the Andhra coast and the 1999 Ersama cyclone—illustrates this point (see Box 7). Prior information (event prediction) about a hazardous event—its nature, magnitude, hit location and time, lead time between event prediction and hit—helps save lives. Using satellites, IMD tracked the Machilipatnam and Ersama cyclone for several days before they made landfall, and predicted their intensity, landfall location and time accurately. Event predictions for both these cyclones was good. An effective warning before a hazard hit must fulfil 6 criteria—it should come in time, reach everyone, be appropriate for the event, be unambiguous about the action people should take, sound credible, and be specific to the risk posed by the impending event. The Machilipatnam warning met all these criteria. The Ersama cyclone warning met the first 3 criteria—it came in time, reached most people on the coast and was appropriate to the event. But it failed the next 3 criteria as it was ambiguous, lacked credibility and was vague. The warning bundled weather and emergency-action information, creating doubt whether people should use their judgement or follow instructions. The warning for the Ersama cyclone was remarkably like the one for a lower intensity cyclone that hit the Ganjam coast 10 days before the Ersama cyclone occurred. As the Ganjam cyclone did not cause much damage or death, going by the similarity between the Ersama and Ganjam cyclone warnings, people thought that Ersama cyclone would be like the Ganjam one. When in doubt people prefer status quo; they stayed home during the Ersama cyclone and were swept away by its giant waves. The chances of taking risk-avoidance/ mitigation action are higher when people know the risks they face and the choices they have. People in Machilipatnam were ready to evacuate their villages as they had cyclone emergency drills earlier. People in Ersama were not put through such drills and therefore were less aware of the danger they faced and the action they should take to save themselves. The infrastructure and hardware that Odisha had was highly inadequate--23 cyclone shelters, a police wireless system that died when the cyclone worked itself into a fury, and no backup communication system. Andhra Pradesh had 1,041 cyclone shelters, a police wireless system that could withstood 250 km/hr windspeeds, and a backup active ham radio network. Odisha had no emergency response plan (ERP) for cyclones and therefore no emergency response action happened in Ersama. Two lakh persons were kept safe in Machilipatnam by evacuating them. The consequence—50,000 persons died in the Ersama cyclone, even though it happened 9 years after the Machilipatnam cyclone. Less than 1,000 persons died in the Machilipatnam cyclone. Information failure and lack of emergency response plans will affect India in COVID-19 pandemic A critical information failure in the COVID-19 outbreak in India is the lack of information on the total number of cases. This can be acquired through extensive testing and good surveillance. But on both counts, India’s effort falls below the curve. When cases are detected at an early stage, they can be isolated immediately and treated. This minimizes the time they are in contact with the people, thus reducing infection spread. India has an information generation failure in its COVID-19 control programme. Several elements of the emergency response to the coronavirus outbreak in India have failed either partially or entirely. Event prediction: India was forewarned of the coronavirus outbreak in general way in the form of knowledge of previous virus outbreaks, WHO DG’s warning that a viral epidemic could happen anytime, and the Chinese paper on the possibility of a coronavirus outbreak. India should have had a viral outbreak response plan but does not seem to have one. The Indian government would have become aware of the coronavirus outbreak in China by early-January 2020. Though there may have been some confusion about the possibility of human to human transmission till 21 January, this was dispelled by the last week of January when WHO declared a global health emergency. Warning: India had about eight weeks of warning time to prepare before the case numbers started going up sharply towards end-March. Kerala prepared for a coronavirus outbreak from January, but the rest of India did not. Risk avoidance action by people: As people’s understanding of the risk that coronavirus poses, and the actions they need to take to stay safe is sketchy, their response has been varied. While most people are willing to live with the lockdown, migrants want to return to their villages. Some resistance was visible in Surat in the second week of April when migrants rioted as they wanted transport to return to their villages. Physical distancing is difficult for slum dwellers, and for many ordinary people it is an alien concept. Infrastructure and facilities: India’s public health system is weak. Isolation and ICU beds, ventilators, doctors, and nursing staff are less than what is required for a large COVID-19 outbreak. Emergency response plan: The only visible document is the ‘Containment Plan.’ It was prepared in the first week of April and covers plans only for local transmission. Plans for community transmission and epidemics have either not been prepared yet or are not available in public domain. Emergency response action: India’s response action can best be described as jerky. The way the lockdown was declared gives the impression that the lack of preparedness and the enormity of the problem may have made the government panic. No thought was given to how migrants would respond to a sudden lockdown announcement, and the beating the economy would take because of the break in the supply chain of almost all goods and services, the loss of income to farmers, unorganized labour and self-employed. The steps after lifting the lockdown do not seem to have been thought through either. India’s actions give the impression that it is playing it by the ear and “muddling through,” which is not the best way to handle a health emergency. But India is not alone in doing this. It has the US, GB and many other countries keeping it company. Box 5: Pandemics in the last century Date Deaths Event Disease Location Jumped into humans from: 1877–1977 500 M Smallpox Worldwide 1899–1923 800 K"}" data-sheets-numberformat="{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}">>800 K Sixth cholera pandemic Cholera Europe, Asia, Africa 1910–12 40 K 1910 China plague Bubonic plague China 1915–26 1.5 M 1915 Encephalitis lethargica pandemic Encephalitis lethargica Worldwide 1918–20 50-100 M Spanish flu Influenza A virus subtype H1N1 Worldwide Pigs 1957–58 2 M Asian flu Influenza A virus subtype H2N2 Worldwide 1968–69 1 M Hong Kong flu Influenza A virus subtype H3N2 Worldwide 1974 15 K 1974 smallpox epidemic of India Smallpox India 1981–present 32 M"}">>32 M HIV/AIDS pandemic HIV/AIDS Worldwide Chimpanzees 1998-2018 350-500 Nipah virus infection Nipah Malaysia, Southeast Asia, Kerala (India) Bats 2002-04 774 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) SARS-CoV-1 China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Worldwide Bats, Civet cat 2009-10 150-575 K Swine influenza virus (SIV) Swine flu Worldwide Pigs 2012-17 666 Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) Camel flu Saudi Arabia, South Korea, UAE, Worldwide Bats, Camels 1976-2019 1,590 Ebola outbreak Ebola Sudan, Zaire, Guinea, DR Congo, West Africa Bats 2019-present 80 K on 8 Apr 2020 Coronavirus outbreak COVID-19/ SARS-CoV-2 Worldwide Bats, Pangolin, or another small mammal Box 6: Series of accidents in the Union Carbide plant, Bhopal, 1981-84 In 1981, a worker was splashed with phosgene. He ripped off his mask in panic, inhaling a large amount of phosgene gas. He died 72 hours later. In January 1982, 24 workers exposed to phosgene were hospitalized. None of the workers had been ordered to wear protective masks. In February 1982, an MIC leak affected 18 workers. In August 1982, an engineer came into contact with liquid MIC, resulting in 30% body burns. In October 1982, there was a leak of MIC, methyl carbaryl chloride, chloroform, and hydrochloric acid. In attempting to stop the leak, the MIC supervisor suffered intensive chemical burns and two other workers were severely exposed to the gases. During 1983 and 1984, leaks of the following substances regularly took place in the MIC plant: MIC, chlorine, monomethylamine, phosgene, and carbon tetrachloride, sometimes in combination. Reports issued by scientists within the Union Carbide Corporation months before the Dec.2 incident warned of the possibility of an accident almost identical to that which occurred in 1984. The reports were ignored and never reached senior staff. Union Carbide was warned by American experts who visited the plant after 1981 of the potential of a "runaway reaction” in the MIC storage tank; local Indian authorities warned the company of problems on several occasions from 1979 onwards. Again, these warnings were not heeded. Box 7: How Emergency Planning and Response Actions save lives Six factors minimize loss of life during hazard strikes. The Ersama cyclone’s high death toll was because of four factors, and a part of the fifth, were out of place. Elements of emergency response plan Ersama (1999) Machilipatnam (1990) COVID-19 (2019) 1. Event prediction Nature of expected event Yes Yes Yes Event magnitude Yes Yes Yes Event location Yes Yes No Hit time Yes Yes Difficult to predict Lead time 75 hrs Adequate 1 year 2. Warning In time Yes Yes India had 10-12 weeks warning time Reach everyone Yes Yes Yes, reached government Appropriate to event Yes Yes Yes to government Unambiguous No Yes Initial confusion in WHO’s warning Credible No Yes Loss of credibility due to initial confusion Specific to event No Yes Yes 3. Risk avoidance action People confused People willing to act People willing to act, some reaction visible 4. Infrastructure India’s public health system poor Cyclone shelters 23 1041 Wireless No No Ham radios No Yes 5. Emergency response plan No Yes ‘Containment plan’ is available in public domain. Not known if other ERPs exist Vulnerable zones mapped Yes Yes Vulnerable structures mapped Yes No Emergency response organization No Yes NDRF exists, but not trained for epidemics Emergency response codes No No Triggers for lockdowns not prepared Emergency response action plan No Yes 6. Emergency response action No 2 lakh people Government’s actions jerky, playing by ear Deaths 50,000

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