#OPEC Oil Cartel

[politicoscope]

Nigeria LNG to EU Declared 'Force Majeure'

Nigeria LNG to EU Declared ‘Force Majeure’

A major Nigerian energy company says it cannot deliver natural gas as promised in its contracts after deadly flooding hindered its operations, raising concerns about whether Africa’s largest economy can meet increased local and international demands during an energy crisis provoked by Russia’s war in Ukraine. Nigeria LNG Limited, or NLNG, declared a “force majeure” this week, meaning it is unable…

[awesome-casuallyfamouscollector]

At the latest meeting in June, OPEC+ decided to extend the current cuts into 2024. Those cuts were originally intended to last between May and December 2023. But the largest surprise came from Saudi Arabia, the world’s top crude oil exporter and OPEC+ leader, which announced a unilateral production cut of 1 million bpd for July(..)

P.S. One more reason to ditch ICE vehicles as fast as possible. In practice, the OPEC oil cartel tries to undermine the Western economy and helps the Kremlin wage war against its neighbours

[zvaigzdelasas]

The big three tropical rainforest nations – Brazil, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo – are in talks to form a strategic alliance to coordinate on their conservation, nicknamed an “Opec for rainforests”, the Guardian understands.

The election of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, known as Lula, has been followed by a flurry of activity to avoid the destruction of the Amazon, which scientists have warned is dangerously close to tipping point after years of deforestation under its far-right leader, Jair Bolsonaro.

During his first speech as president-elect, Lula pledged to fight for zero deforestation in the Amazon, while Colombia has proposed creating an Amazon bloc at Cop27, and Norway’s environment minister is moving to reinstate a billion-dollar fund to protect the rainforest after it was halted under Bolsonaro.[...]

The alliance could see the rainforest countries make joint proposals on carbon markets and finance, a longtime sticking point at UN climate and biodiversity talks, as part of an effort to encourage developed countries to fund their conservation [...]

Oscar Soria, campaign director of the activism site Avaaz, said the alliance could be an “Opec for rainforests”, akin to the oil producers’ cartel, which coordinates on the fossil fuel’s production levels and price. Before being elected, Lula said any alliance could be expanded to other rainforest countries, such as Peru and Cambodia.

“This deal could be a promising step forward, as long as Indigenous peoples and local communities are fully consulted in the process and their rights and leadership respected,” Soria said.

5 Nov 22

[allthebrazilianpolitics]

For Lula to be a climate leader, he must phase out oil

At COP28, the Brazilian president has sent mixed messages by aligning with OPEC. If he really wants to tackle the growing threat of droughts and floods, he must set a clear fossil-free, pro-nature direction for the UN climate summit he will host in Belém in 2025

The biggest-ever UN climate summit is well underway in Dubai with eighty thousand participants discussing hundreds of agenda items to avert the climate crisis, but ultimately there is only one goal that matters: reducing carbon emissions as quickly as possible by phasing out fossil fuels and eradicating deforestation.

By comparison, everything else is hot air. Delegates can talk all they want about green technology, net zero pledges, compensation payments, scientific studies and other well-intentioned initiatives, but none of that will be effective unless the world halts the build up of carbon dioxide and other planet-heating gases in the atmosphere. That existential challenge, upon which all life on Earth depends, can only be achieved by phasing out coal, oil and gas and restoring the health of the world’s climate infrastructure: the forests, oceans, wetlands and other centres of natural vitality.

If anyone was still in any doubt about the urgency of the climate crisis, this horrendously destructive year has surely made them realise we cannot wait a second longer: 2023 is already confirmed as  the hottest year on record. July was the warmest month in more than 120,000 years. This has brought devastating drought to the Amazon, floods to southern Brazil, heatwaves to the Andean mountains, fires to Canada and death and destruction across many parts of the planet. This is just the start. If emissions from fossil fuels and forests continue to increase, then temperatures will continue to rise for decades. We will look back on 2023 as one of the coolest years of our lives. Soon, it won’t just be dolphins and fish that suffer mass mortalities, it will be people. “We are terrified,” a group of 1,447 scientists said in an open letter released at Cop28. “If we are to create a liveable future, climate action must move from being something that others do to something that we all do.”

The first week of Cop28 shows the desperate need for a new perspective. The process has been captured by the very people who profit most from increasing carbon emissions. The president of this climate conference is Sultan Al Jaber, who is the CEO of the biggest oil and gas company in the United Arab Emirates. As many climate campaigners have joked, this is like putting a fox in charge of a henhouse or asking Dracula to run a bloodbank. But it is not funny when the man in charge of addressing the most difficult and important challenge in human history goes on record to deny that eradicating fossil fuels is the only way to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius or that a life without oil would send humanity back into caves. These comments, which have been thoroughly rebutted by scientists, reveal the true face of the fossil fuel industry, which has been holding up progress for more than three decades.

All of which makes Brazil’s decision to align itself more closely with the world’s biggest oil cartel Opec, more disappointing. Announced at the start of the climate summit, the timing of this move could not have been more of a kick in the teeth to international efforts to tackle global heating. It is brutally pragmatic. Brazil aims to expand oil production in defiance of advice from the International Energy Agency that 1.5C is impossible if countries open new fields. The day after Cop28 finishes, Brazil will hold an auction of dozens of new oil development blocs. All of these steps will mean more drought, more suffering, more death in the years to come.

Continue reading.

[your-krazy-uncle-bob]

The Left used to accuse imperialist, resource-hungry Yanquis in Washington of cutting selfish deals with illiberal dictatorships in Latin America to grab their natural resources. 

How odd then that Joe Biden is now begging the despicable Maduro regime in Venezuela—corrupt, murderous, and anti-American—to produce more of its oil solely to send northward to America. 

Biden is quite willing to ease sanctions and condone the human rights abuses of Maduro—if his dictatorship will just open its oil spigots before the November midterm elections. 

Biden in 2020 campaigned on the supposed evil nature of the Saudi Arabian monarchy. Yet after vainly entreating Venezuela, Iran, and Russia, it was inevitable that Biden would once again supplicate the Saudis to pump more oil. 

Biden even pleaded with OPEC to increase its output and thus lower the world price of energy—again before the midterm elections. 

Biden, remember, has a bad habit of bragging that he lowered gas prices at the pump when the natural volatility of the petroleum markets leads to a fractional decrease. But once prices spike, he is utterly silent about his own role in limiting U.S. oil and gas output.

So, was it any surprise that the Saudis became the fourth non-democratic regime to refuse Biden’s entreaties? During the 2020 campaign, when gas prices were dirt cheap, and when then candidate Biden was demagoguing about ending fossil fuel, he opportunistically libeled the Saudis a “pariah” state. 

Biden also claimed that his opponent Donald Trump had cozied up to these supposedly awful Saudi royals. That accusation was especially ironic given that Trump was the first American president who had no need for Saudi oil. 

His administration had managed to make the United States the largest producer of gas and oil in history— precluding any energy dependence on illiberal regimes abroad. 

Trump was the first U.S. president whose interest in Gulf State monarchies was not energy-driven. 

Instead, he partnered with the Arab nations to end their hostilities with Israel. The ensuing Abraham Accords saw a historic thaw between the Jewish state and moderate Arab nations—given their shared worries about the unhinged Iranian theocracy. 

The Saudis are enjoying the schadenfreude of seeing their former American critic now on his knees, demanding the purportedly dirty, polluting oil produced by a supposed “pariah” state. 

In response to their “No,” a desperate Team Biden is getting nasty. Almost immediately the administration raised the idea of a pre-midterm retribution of suing the OPEC cartel as a price-rigging monopoly. It even maneuvered allies in Congress to take action to punish Riyadh for not playing the American pawn. 

The American public is repelled as they watch Biden’s pathetic theatrics of global oil begging to help himself in the midterms. They are ashamed that their recently energy autonomous country is now imploring non-democratic regimes for every drop of their oil—to the extent of threatening former allies and coaxing current enemies. 

More bizarre still, the public was once told that Biden and the Left wanted high energy prices. 

Why else did Biden upon entering office cancel the Keystone Pipeline? 

Did he not fulfill his green promises to the radical environmentalist Left by shutting down oil fields in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge? 

Did Biden not dutifully hector lending agencies, pensions funds, and money managers not to loan to, or invest in, oil and gas companies? 

Did Biden not issue fewer new energy leases on federal lands than any prior president? 

Was it not Biden on the eve of the Ukrainian war who jawboned the Europeans to reject the EastMed pipeline? That project was a much-needed joint effort by three of our closest allies—Greece, Israel, and Cyprus—to bring clean-burning natural gas to an energy-starved Europe. 

In sum, did not Biden brag to the Left that he kept his campaign promises to strangle fossil fuels—both curbing supply and spiking prices—to hasten the “transition” to wind, solar, and batteries? 

Why then is Biden humiliating Americans by playing the hard-nosed ugly American? Why is he demanding foreigners pump what we ourselves have in plentitude but will not fully produce? 

The answer, of course, is raw politics. 

Biden knows he wrecked the economy by deliberately surging oil prices in pursuit of the Left’s utopian green nightmare. 

Or put another way—if it is a question of avoiding a historic midterm wipeout, Joe Biden will now do anything. 

And that anything means all the human rights sermons about ostracizing “pariah” states like oil-rich Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela go out the window. 

In winter 2021 Biden lectured us that fossil fuels were dirty obstacles to our green future. 

As winter 2022-23 approaches, Biden believes he can strong-arm his enemies to send us more of such taboo energy that we won’t produce ourselves. 

Good luck with all these utter absurdities. 

(americangreatness.com)

[qqueenofhades]

gas prices are about to go thru the damn ROOF. fuck opec and their blatant attempt to fix the midterms for the gop 🤬🤬🤬

Quick context for everyone: OPEC (the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries), along with their associated group, OPEC+, just agreed to cut oil production by 2 million barrels a day starting in November. As OPEC is largely run and principally influenced by the Saudis, and Russia is a key member of OPEC+, it does indeed look very much as if this announcement, coming barely a month before the midterms, is a clear attempt to negatively influence gas prices in the US and thus push for a more Republican turnout.

Indeed, ask yourself why the Saudis and Russia, two authoritarian dictatorships with open ties to Trump, would want to weaken the Democrats and push for the installation of a similar right-wing authoritarian party in the US, as they (especially Russia) have been trying to do all along. Because this cut won't take place until right around the midterms itself, it's possible that this is intended to scare gas prices up in anticipation, rather than actually reflecting in the supply. OPEC is a cartel run by authoritarian countries (as the "oil curse" tends to be incompatible with democratic structures, and this has been egged on wholeheartedly by the US in the past). So yes, if for some reason you should encounter this talking point in the wild ("gas prices are going up again, it must be Biden's fault, WAH WAH TIME TO THROW AWAY DEMOCRACY!"), please hasten to explain why, exactly, it is in fact happening.

[kp777]

Big Oil corporations have been illegally conspiring to raise the price of oil, costing Americans thousands of dollars a year.

When Pioneer Natural Resources, the largest oil company in Texas, tried to merge with ExxonMobil, the Federal Trade Commission discovered evidence that Pioneer was illegally colluding with OPEC, the oil cartel that includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia, to keep prices high.

US oil producers are explicitly prohibited by federal law from price fixing and from taking actions that restrict competition.

But Pioneer CEO and GOP mega-donor Scott Sheffield was caught red-handed coordinating production strategies in private messages to Oil Ministers in the Middle East, to keep prices artificially high.

In addition to the direct price increases at the gas pump, many of the higher prices we’ve faced, from groceries to food delivery, come back to the increased price of oil.

Higher prices are not, as we're sometimes told, simply the result of government spending, or the invisible hand of the market.

Real human hands are involved here -- including CEOs that send texts to oil ministers about how they should work together to keep prices high.

The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has already made an example of Sheffield and Pioneer. Sheffield was barred from working for Exxon, and Exxon was banned from appointing top Pioneer executives for five years. It also referred the case to the Department of Justice for criminal prosecution.

The DoJ must pick this case up, and investigate and prosecute any American oil executives caught illegally colluding to keep gas prices high!

Add your name now!

[beardedmrbean]

WASHINGTON — The son of an elderly US citizen recently handed a 16-year, three-month prison sentence by Saudi Arabia for tweeting told The Post he’s outraged at how President Biden and his deputies bungled the case.

“He sold my father for oil, that’s clear to us. Especially when we saw the news last week about how they requested to delay the OPEC [oil production cuts] decision a month [until after the election],” Ibrahim Almadi told The Post on Tuesday.

Biden visited the oil-rich kingdom in July without winning the release of 72-year-old Saad Almadi or even publicly mentioning the case. The elder Almadi was convicted and sentenced Oct. 3 — after the State Department failed to send a representative to observe proceedings.

“Biden just cares about votes. He doesn’t care about my father, he doesn’t care about American citizens,” Ibrahim added. “He got sold for oil, but they didn’t receive the oil. So there is no father, no oil. There’s nothing — there is only shame, that is what the White House has got now.”

Ibrahim Almadi told The Post he was encouraged by the US government to avoid seeking publicity — only to have officials do little to help. His father lived in the US since the 1970s and was detained in November 2021 during a visit to Saudi Arabia to sell property.

Saad Almadi’s lengthy prison sentence, linked to 14 tweets, was first reported Monday night by the Washington Post and follows similarly harsh penalties given to Saudi residents who lack US citizenship — often for criticizing Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, the country’s de facto ruler.

“This is outrageous. A 72-year-old U.S. citizen was sentenced to 16 years in prison and subject to torture in *Saudi Arabia* for years-old tweets he posted while in the United States,” tweeted Sarah McLaughlin of the pro-free speech group the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression.

A State Department official confirmed to Washington Post columnist Josh Rogin that the department failed to alert the US Embassy in Riyadh when the hearing date was changed to Oct. 3 and that “unfortunately, that information wasn’t passed [to the embassy]. That is something we deeply regret.”

The mixup was the latest in a series of stinging snubs experienced by US-based relatives of Almadi and at least three other US citizens, who are not imprisoned currently but are banned from leaving Saudi Arabia.

Biden visited the kingdom in the summer to smooth over relations with bin Salman after US gasoline prices hit all-time average highs of more than $5 per gallon in June.

Biden previously tried to sideline bin Salman over the US intelligence community’s conclusion that he ordered the 2018 operation that killed another Washington Post columnist, Jamal Khashoggi. Although the president exchanged a fist bump with bin Salman, who is widely known by his initials, MBS, Saudi Arabia led the OPEC+ cartel in moving to cut oil production weeks later, embarrassing Biden.

“MBS is just challenging,” Ibrahim Almadi told The Post. “He wants to see how far he can get with Biden. Let’s be honest: If I do something to you and you don’t put boundaries or react, guess what I’m going to do? I’m going to move forward with my abusive actions toward you.”

Before Biden’s trip, the younger Almadi said he called the White House switchboard almost every day from late May to try to speak with Stephanie Hallett, the National Security Council’s acting senior director for the Middle East and North Africa. At one point, a White House phone operator allegedly asked, “Why do you want to talk to someone who doesn’t want to talk to you?”

In August, after Biden’s visit, a State Department official allegedly laughed at Almadi’s complaint that his father, a registered Republican in Florida, would be unable to vote in the Nov. 8 midterm elections.

“I am Democratic myself. I voted for Biden, which is a stupid mistake I did,” Ibrahim said. “My father’s a Republican registered voter. He wants to participate in the coming election. They laughed and said that your father should request a paper ballot.”

If Biden doesn’t consider it his job to help free US citizens held abroad like his father, Almadi added, he should “get the f–k out of the White House.”

Saad Almadi visited his homeland without thinking of his relatively benign tweets commenting on Saudi affairs, his son said.

The offending messages included remarks that officials were unable to protect national borders amid rocket fire from Iran-allied Houthi rebels in Yemen, encouragement of acquiring Lebanese citizenship and agreement with naming a street after Khashoggi.

In contrast with Biden’s handling of Almadi’s case, the president has publicly advocated repeatedly for Russia to release professional basketball player Brittney Griner, who pleaded guilty in July to possessing a small amount of cannabis oil when she was detained at a Moscow airport in February. The administration also recently won the negotiated released of dual US-Venezuelan citizens from Caracas.

Ali al-Ahmed, whose cousin, Dr. Bader al-Ibrahim, is not allowed to leave Saudi Arabia despite facing no criminal charges, also told The Post he’s frustrated with the Biden administration.

“They should not discriminate between Brittney Griner or Saad Almadi or others. If this man was in Russia or Iran or Venezuela, I think [Biden] would have spoken strongly and acted strongly,” said al-Ahmed, a longtime US-based analyst of Saudi affairs and president of the Committee for American Hostages in Saudi Arabia.

“If they can get seven Americans out of Venezuela and raise hell about Griner, this was the easy case,” al-Ahmed said.

The Saudi Embassy in Washington and the White House did not immediately respond to The Post’s requests for comment.

A White House official in July defended the Biden administration’s performance and insisted that Biden privately raised detainee cases during his visit to the kingdom.

“President Biden is aware of the cases of four US citizens subject to travel bans in Saudi Arabia. Members of his team met recently with representatives and family members of individuals in this status,” the official said. “The president also raised their cases with the Saudi government during his recent visit. We will continue to press at the highest levels for these travel bans to be lifted.”

[dontmeantobepoliticalbut]

U.S. Rep. Ro Khanna on Wednesday urged the Biden administration to cut off sales of weaponry and crucial plane parts to Saudi Arabia as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries—a cartel led by the Saudis—agreed to slash oil production in a bid to prop up falling prices, a move that could inflict more pain on American consumers.

"President Biden should make it clear that we will stop supplying the Saudis with weapons and air parts if they fleece the American people and strengthen [Russian President Vladimir] Putin by making drastic production cuts," Khanna (D-Calif.) told The Washington Post in an interview as OPEC members met in Vienna.

"They need us far more than we need them," Khanna added.

The Biden White House launched a pressure campaign earlier this week in a last-ditch bid to stop OPEC from cutting supply, characterizing such a move as a "hostile act."

But the administration's efforts failed. On Wednesday, OPEC members agreed to slash their combined production by two million barrels a day, the largest supply cut since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020.

Saudi Arabia is the second-largest oil producer in the world behind the U.S., and the Biden administration has sought cooperation from the kingdom's murderous leaders as Russia's war on Ukraine continues to rattle global energy markets, elevating prices for consumers. While not a formal OPEC member, Russia—the world's third-largest oil producer—often works with the international cartel.

In July, U.S. President Joe Biden held a widely condemned meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to discuss the global oil supply, among other issues.

The White House has warned an OPEC production cut could reverse the large and consistent declines in U.S. gas prices over the past several months, just in time for the pivotal midterm elections. Expectations of a production cut have already driven oil prices up significantly in recent days.

"We've been clear that energy supply should meet demand to support economic growth and lower prices for consumers around the world and we will continue to talk with our partners about that," White House National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said in a statement Tuesday.

Khanna, a progressive seen by some as a future presidential candidate, is a longtime critic of the Saudi regime—particularly its devastating assault on Yemen. He has been pushing the White House in recent days to respond forcefully to any OPEC production cut.

"It's outrageous. The Saudis need to be dealt with harshly," Khanna told CNN in an interview earlier this week. "They are a third-rate power. We are the most powerful country in the world. I don't know why we kowtow to them."

"They are not our allies," the California Democrat added. "They are hurting the American people. And we need to be tough with them. The President needs to make it clear we will cut off their supply. We could ground their air force in a day."

Sen. Bernie Sanders on Wednesday called for an end to U.S. military aid to Saudi Arabia after the kingdom and other major oil-producing nations agreed to slash output by two million barrels a day, a move that could significantly drive up gas prices worldwide as a global recession looms.

In a social media post, Sanders (I-Vt.) denounced the Saudi-led OPEC cartel over its "blatant attempt to increase gas prices at the pump," which he said "cannot stand."

"We must end OPEC's illegal price-fixing cartel, eliminate military assistance to Saudi Arabia, and move aggressively to renewable energy," the Senator added.

Sanders was one of several members of the U.S. Democratic caucus who responded with outrage to OPEC and Russia's decision, which is set to take effect in November as the midterm elections kick off.

Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) announced Wednesday that he will be reintroducing legislation instructing U.S. officials to "initiate dispute proceedings" against OPEC members at the World Trade Organization for violating the body's price-manipulation rules.

"As we build our clean energy future, we must stand up to the oil-soaked global cartel that seeks to abuse its power to raise prices and boost their profits," Markey said in a statement. "Today's OPEC announcement is a reminder that as long as the United States is dependent on foreign oil and on domestic oil that is priced on a global market, the supply and cost of the energy Americans use to operate our cars, heat our homes, and power our economy is reliant on decisions made by and for hostile fossil-fueled regimes."

"We must hold OPEC and its allies accountable for colluding to hike energy prices on working families," Markey added, "and we must accelerate our transition to clean energy to free ourselves from their profiteering, colluding grip once and for all."

Reps. Tom Malinowski (D-N.J.), Sean Casten (D-Ill.), and Susan Wild (D-Pa.), meanwhile, unveiled legislation that would require the removal of U.S. troops and missile defense systems from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), another OPEC member.

"Saudi Arabia and the UAE's drastic cut in oil production, despite President Biden's overtures to both countries in recent months, is a hostile act against the United States and a clear signal that they have chosen to side with Russia in its war against Ukraine," the House Democrats said in a joint statement Wednesday.

"Both countries have long relied on an American military presence in the Gulf to protect their security and oil fields," the trio added. "We see no reason why American troops and contractors should continue to provide this service to countries that are actively working against us."

The Biden White House has thus far indicated that it is considering a number of policy responses to "reduce OPEC's control over energy prices"—signaling a possible revival of NOPEC legislation—but the administration hasn't specifically said it would target U.S. military assistance to the Saudis.

According to a recent study by the Government Accountability Office, the Pentagon delivered at least $54.6 billion of military aid to Saudi Arabia and the UAE between fiscal years 2015 and 2021, support that included missiles, helicopters, and bombs.

The U.S. has also spent hundreds of millions of dollars in recent years refueling Saudi and UAE jets as they attacked Yemen, sparking a humanitarian catastrophe that continues in the present.

Despite the President's campaign pledge to make the kingdom a "pariah" over its assassination of Jamal Khashoggi, the Biden administration has continued to approve massive weapons sales to the Saudis, including a multibillion-dollar sale of missiles in August. A month earlier, Reuters reported that the Biden administration was considering lifting its ban on "offensive" weapons sales to the Saudis.

Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) has been vocally pressing the Biden administration to halt U.S. military support for Saudi Arabia in response to OPEC's coming production cut, blasting the petrostate as a "third-rate power" that is "hurting the American people."

On Wednesday, Khanna co-authored an op-ed calling for an end to "missile and weapons system sales Saudi so desperately needs."

"By siding with Russia in hiking oil prices and sabotaging our economy," Khanna and two others wrote, "the Saudis have really outfoxed themselves this time—it was a time for choosing, and they picked the wrong side."

[mariacallous]

U.S. President Joe Biden was never enthusiastic about making a pilgrimage to Saudi Arabia to make up with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. And three months after the fist bump that went ’round the world, it’s easy to see why.

Last week, that fist bump was replaced by a Saudi sucker punch as OPEC+, a cartel of top oil producers, decided to cut its oil production by as much as 2 million barrels per day (though oil analysts say the cut may prove to be significantly lower). There’s no doubt that the primary motive was to keep prices high and maintain Russian-Saudi and OPEC+ cohesion in anticipation of further economic downturns and perhaps a U.S. and EU price cap on Russian oil before year’s end.

But let’s be clear: The Saudi move was done with the full awareness that it would undermine Biden’s political position at home and abroad. Weeks before the U.S. midterm elections and with gas prices already ticking up, Mohammed bin Salman made it unmistakably clear to the U.S. president that he’d do as he pleased when it came to oil prices and his cozy relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, regardless of U.S. objections or interests.

Whether this latest development reflects a major turning point in U.S.-Saudi relations is unclear. That relationship has had many ups and downs—including the 1973 oil embargo and the 9/11 attacks—and survived. But one thing is certain: The days when U.S. presidents dealt with risk-averse Saudi kings dependent on the United States and wary of offending Washington have been over for some time now. A willful, ruthless, and unpredictable Saudi leader is now in charge and may, when he becomes king, rule Saudi Arabia for half a century.

The Biden administration announced on Tuesday that it would undertake a reevaluation of U.S.-Saudi relations. And even though U.S. options run from bad to worse, the point of departure for that review must be clear. If it has learned nothing else from this sorry affair, the Biden administration needs to write on the blackboard 1,000 times that Saudi Arabia under Mohammed bin Salman isn’t an ally of the United States.

In the wake of the assassination of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi, then-presidential candidate Biden talked repeatedly about reevaluating and reassessing U.S.-Saudi relations. To his credit, Biden seemed to follow through on this early in his presidency by suspending offensive weapons sales to Saudi Arabia, freezing contacts with Mohammed bin Salman, and releasing a brief assessment by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence establishing the crown prince’s role in and responsibility for Khashoggi’s death.

But even then, what the Biden administration had in mind, according to U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, was “not to rupture” the U.S.-Saudi relationship but rather to “recalibrate” it “to be more in line with our interests and our values.” And throughout 2021, administration officials seemed to be thinking through ways to do that.

Yet no real reassessment of the relationship seems to have occurred. And then came Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and its attendant shock to oil markets, which accelerated the urgency of at least trying to normalize ties with Saudi Arabia and reinforced the importance of Saudi oil and of Mohammed bin Salman’s value as a potential strategic partner.

Indeed, the Jeddah Communique issued at the end of Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia in July repeatedly stressed that strategic partnership and contained an impressive array of joint initiatives to make it real—almost everything except the proverbial kitchen sink, including security and defense cooperation; initiatives on technology, green energy, cybersecurity, global infrastructure, and investment; and cooperation on regional issues from Yemen to Lebanon to Syria.

One could be forgiven for thinking that after a very turbulent stretch, a new era had dawned in U.S.-Saudi relations. And the Biden administration’s confidence that, over time, Saudi Arabia would incrementally ramp up oil production added to the sense that Biden’s trip had been a worthwhile strategic investment.

Apparently, Mohammed bin Salman didn’t get the memo. For him, the visit was certainly a chance to begin anew—but on his terms. Likely feeling personally slighted by Biden’s initial shunning of any contact with the crown prince, as well as by Biden’s comments in 2019 that Saudi Arabia was a “pariah” nation whose leadership had “very little social redeeming value,” the crown prince almost certainly saw the visit as the U.S. president’s comeuppance, a kiss-the-ring moment in the rapidly evolving international landscape in which the United States was no longer as powerful or as central to Saudi interests.

Mohammad bin Salman would gladly cooperate with Washington and take whatever it would give, especially in the vital areas of security, intelligence, and arms sales. But on a whole host of other issues, from establishing close relations with Russia and China to setting oil prices to human rights, Saudi Arabia would exercise its own independence and discretion free from U.S. objections, even if those policies ran directly counter to Washington’s interests.

This is especially true when it comes to human rights. It should not have been lost on anyone that last week’s OPEC+ decision came just three days after the fourth anniversary of Khashoggi’s killing. For Mohammed bin Salman, the Khashoggi file was now permanently closed—and with it any notion that Biden or the United States could dictate to Saudi Arabia on that issue or on the matter of whom its friends should be.

The politically inconvenient reality is that as a fellow authoritarian, when it comes to democracy, human rights, and individual freedoms, Saudi Arabia’s leader has far more in common with the leaders in Moscow and Beijing than the one in Washington.

Biden has expressed “disappointment” in the response to the OPEC+ decision, and a statement by U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and National Economic Council Director Brian Deese termed it “shortsighted” and foreshadowed some additional response.

Having been skeptical all along about the value of the fence-mending trip to Saudi Arabia, one can only imagine Biden’s private reaction to the OPEC+ move. But reaction by U.S. congressional Democrats left little to the imagination. “It’s time for our foreign policy to imagine a world without their alliance,” Sen. Dick Durbin tweeted, referring to Saudi Arabia. Sen. Bernie Sanders called for an end to U.S. military support for the country and to “end its price-fixing oil cartel.” Rep. Tom Malinowski along with others introduced legislation to withdraw U.S. troops from Saudi Arabia.

Others urged passage of the 2021 No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels (NOPEC) bill, which “prohibits a foreign state from engaging in collective action impacting the market, supply, price, or distribution of oil, natural gas, or any other petroleum product in the U.S.” CNBC reports that the bill, which passed a Senate committee in May, “could expose OPEC countries and partners to lawsuits for orchestrating supply cuts that raise global crude prices.” Based on Sullivan and Deese’s statement, the administration may well decide to work with Congress on such an approach.

That U.S. administrations past and present had and continue to have leverage with Saudi Arabia is beyond question. After all, on the security and military dimensions of the relationship alone the numbers speak for themselves. From 2016 to 2020, Saudi Arabia was by far the biggest recipient of U.S. arms sales. And the United States could easily ground the entire Saudi air force, dependent as it is on U.S. spare parts and maintenance. But Washington has been reluctant to use this leverage, even though it would take years for Saudi Arabia to reorient its security relationship with Russia or China, and neither could provide the quality or quantity of U.S.-supplied weapons systems. Nor is there any sense that either Moscow or Beijing would be willing or able to come to the defense of Saudi Arabia in an exigent situation.

Yet administrations past and present have been unwilling to press the Saudis hard and use the leverage they clearly have. The default position seemed to be that, unlike Lehman Brothers, the U.S.-Saudi relationship—driven by oil, countering Iran, intelligence sharing, and peacemaking with Israel—was simply too big and important to fail. In fact, the Biden administration has been one of the first U.S. administrations, in response to the assassination of Khashoggi and Saudi Arabia’s disastrous war in Yemen, to get tough by suspending offensive weapons sales and imposing the “Khashoggi Ban.”

As the administration considers a response to the OPEC+ decision, there are a number of elements to consider. First, is the response designed to change Saudi behavior or simply to punish? The former is much harder than the latter. Just take a look at the Biden administration’s early decision to suspend some weapons sales and freeze contacts between Biden and the crown prince. Not only did it fail to change Mohammed bin Salman’s behavior, but the administration also looked even weaker when it eased the pressure campaign only to find the crown prince pushing OPEC+ into significant production cuts.

Second, it’s hard to recall a single example of sanctions working successfully on an adversary—let alone a presumably friendly country—when it involved a matter of vital national interest or prestige for the target country. Third, as it responds, the administration doesn’t want to take actions that might make matters worse. Oil is a critical aspect of the relationship, but it’s still just one component. Cooperation on counterterrorism and Iran is also a key U.S. objective that shouldn’t be jeopardized.

One would be hard-pressed to identify a set of options that would suitably punish Mohammed bin Salman, alter his behavior, and prevent or deter future deleterious actions without jeopardizing other parts of the U.S.-Saudi relationship that are worth preserving.

But the crown prince’s middle finger of a decision in a relationship that’s supposed to involve reciprocity warrants a response. In the short term, there’s little Biden can do to restore production cuts or lower gas prices at the pump. The biggest spikes may well occur later in the year. Oil analysts have warned that drawing more crude from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, creating a gasoline reserve equivalent, or limiting exports of refined products won’t address the problem.

Options for retaliating against Saudi Arabia aren’t great, either. But they need to be considered, including restricting offensive arms sales and whether the United States really needs the numbers of forces it has deployed in Saudi Arabia and should evaluate a drawdown—if only to demonstrate that it is serious about resetting the relationship and pushing the Saudis to bring about some remedial action on their supply cuts. The Biden administration should use the very real threat of congressional actions on these issues to indicate just how fraught the U.S.-Saudi relationship has become.

Banning high-level contacts with Mohammed bin Salman also makes sense—but having seen this movie once before, this time it should be done informally with no public announcement. It will leak soon enough. The United States should also continue to highlight the importance of human rights and call out the Saudi government publicly.

Most of the cooperative efforts outlined in the Jeddah Communique should be suspended for now, and the United States should work with its European allies—especially the British and French—to see what they are willing to do to make their displeasure felt. After all, the OPEC+ decision in Vienna will likely affect their energy situation more than the United States’ as winter looms. The prospect of further supply disruptions once European oil sanctions on Russia kick in in December will only make the oil market more precarious.

If Saudi Arabia wants to avoid a long-term decline in its relationship with the United States, the Biden administration should make clear that Riyadh needs to start acting like a partner. Helima Croft of RBC Capital Markets—one of the smartest oil analysts in the business—told me that one critically important U.S. demand should be for the Saudis and other OPEC members to make a public commitment to backfill supply to Europe if disruptions become severe. Frankly, as others have noted, having humiliated the U.S. president at home and abroad, that would be the least the Saudis could do.

But with no formal treaty obligations, no coincidence of values, an increasingly episodic and unpredictable alignment of interests, and no strong base of domestic support for the relationship, Saudi Arabia is not a U.S. ally, and the Biden administration should stop describing it as such.

The Saudis don’t want a break with the Biden administration. Neither Russia nor China can effectively replace the United States as a security partner. But Biden has two years left in his first term. And it certainly doesn’t require a political genius to realize that Mohammed bin Salman would prefer the return of former U.S. President Donald Trump or a Republican avatar. Last year, from the fund Mohammed bin Salman manages, the crown prince bankrolled Jared Kushner’s private equity firm to the tune of $2 billion.

And even if the OPEC+ decision wasn’t a calculated effort to weaken Biden before the U.S. midterms, a self-obsessed 37-year-old likely to rule Saudi Arabia for half a century may simply not have cared what the consequences of his actions might be for a soon-to-be 80-year-old U.S. president he’s likely moved beyond.

Either way, Mohammed bin Salman will continue to be a problematic partner. Saudi hedging with Russia and China, the United States’ own diminished role in the Middle East, and the unpredictability of the would-be Saudi king will inexorably diminish U.S. influence with Saudi Arabia at a time when its oil is increasingly important to the global economy. Energy security will still loom large as the United States hopefully makes its transition to renewables and a greener future. But the challenge of bad allies and worse adversaries will remain as Washington tries to advance U.S. interests in a turbulent Middle East that is beyond its capacity to repair.

[uboat53]

Well, the 2022 midterm elections are less than a month away (make sure you're registered to vote, there's still time in many states! https://www.vote.org) and I wanted to take a look at something that's sure to come up.

You see, OPEC, the internation oil cartel, just voted to reduce the amount of oil it produces. This has increased gas prices as you may or may not have noticed.

The major nations of OPEC are Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Venezuela, brutal dicatorships who align themselves against broader American values but there's a trick hidden in that statement.

You see, Republicans, particularly those in the MAGA side of the party, have drifted away from American values. The Trump Administration in particular sought close ties with authoritarian dictatorships such as Turkey, Russia, and, yes, Saudi Arabia while the Biden Administration has taken a more distant if not harder line with regard to those countries.

It's not entirely insane to think that this OPEC move was taken deliberately to damage Democrats and President Biden in the United States (and to help far-right parties and politicians in other countries that are having elections now) and to promote Republicans, particularly those Republicans who have scorned democracy and human rights as American values.

By presenting high gas prices, which, again, are the fault of authoritarian dictators around the world, as being the fault of President Biden, Republicans are, knowingly or not, aligning themselves with the interests of those same dictators.

I want you to realize what they're doing, not to buy it, and to realize what it means that so many candidates who want to run the American government are willing to so easily dismiss the values that we all supposedly believe in.

[awesome-casuallyfamouscollector]

(..)OPEC, for example, has zero motivation to try and boost production, Sallee noted in follow-up comments for Oilprice. It would only do so if it knows oil will remain over $100 per barrel for a longer period of time, but there is no way to be confident about this right now.Then there are the purely physical constraints on OPEC production, as evidenced by the consistent failure of the group to hit its own—reduced—production targets. Most OPEC members have ambitious production growth plans, but they remain plans while actual production remains subdued for reasons such as natural depletion at mature fields and, ultimately, not enough investment(..).

P.S. Another very good reason to replace ICE vehicles with EVs. Fossil fuel is NOT a good and reliable source of energy….

[zvaigzdelasas]

My "fistbumping with the person I called a pariah on the campaign trail the moment it's more useful for me" t-shirt is r [5 Oct 22]

[allthebrazilianpolitics]

A Balancing Act for Brazil’s Foreign Policy

What seems like a contradictory agenda for 2024 reflects the country’s deeper priorities, writes a Brazilian expert.

“Hope dances on a tightrope with an umbrella,” a famous Brazilian song says to enlighten us about the fragility of human existence during trying times. The lyrics convey a cautionary tale of what 2024 may represent for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and his ambitious foreign policy: “At every step of the line, you can get hurt.” If controversies marked Brazil’s foreign policy in 2023, this year promises to be a stage for new tensions and ambiguities —a tightrope of sorts for its government. After an intense first year of government, Lula is now preparing for a series of initiatives expected to draw global attention, including hosting the G-20 summit in Rio de Janeiro in November.

This year, Brazil will be caught between celebrating the bicentennial of relations with the United States—and 50 years of relations with China. It will try to preserve its capacity to mediate in the territorial dispute between Guyana and Venezuela while managing the uncertainties facing Mercosur, such as challenges in expanding intra-regional trade, high tariffs, and protectionism, as well as difficulties in finalizing external trade agreements, such as the Mercosur-European Union negotiation. It will attempt to harmonize interests to expand its geopolitical and economic influence diversifying business opportunities and reducing dependence on rules and regulations set by Western countries in the face of the controversial BRICS+ Summit in Russia. Last but not least, it will try to convince everyone that the decision to join OPEC+ does not contradict the country’s commitment to being a green power and the host of COP30 next year. Tension, contradictions? Nothing new. Controversy was almost inherent in Brazil’s diplomatic performance last year:Lula visited over 20 countries, participated in numerous bilateral meetings, and led multilateral mobilizations to back up his claim that “Brazil is back.” He offered to play a mediating role between Russia and Ukraine after the former’s invasion and was criticized for hesitating to assign responsibility to Moscow for the war. Lula also participated in a BRICS Summit in Johannesburg, where the bloc proposed including Iran and other countries, and while attending COP28 in the United Arab Emirates, he confirmed Brazil’s entry into OPEC+, a group that includes the oil cartel nations and ten observer countries. On another front, Brazil proposed de-dollarizing trade with China, and in the region, Lula made a controversial outreach to Nicolas Maduro’s government in Venezuela during its pro tempore presidency of Mercosur. 

Continue reading.

[eraserdude6226]

From Fox News - Dems turn to hostile dictators for oil production as gas prices tick up, GOP blame 'war on American energy'

Dems turn to hostile dictators for oil production as gas prices tick up, GOP blame 'war on American energy'

All this while American oil workers and American crude oil sits idly in the ground.

Hey Brandon, I'll tell you how to make sure you win the midterms -

OPEN UP THE PIPELINES AND LET OR AMERICAN OIL WORKINGMEN DO WHAT THEY DO BEST - DRILL, DRILL, AND WHEN YOU THINK YOU HAVE ENOUGH - DRILL EVEN MORE!!!

Take that price per barrel and drive it down as low as you want to take it. Starve the OPEC+ nations!!!

Screw them like they're screwing you right now! We are not the Japanese prior to WW2 - we have our own natural resources, we don't need the rest of the worlds!!!

[usafphantom2]

IMAGES: Alaska-based F-22s are deployed on CENTCOM amid Iran's threat

Fernando Valduga By Fernando Valduga 11/03/2022 - 16:00 in Military, War Zones

Two F-22 Raptors from Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Alaska, and an F-15E Strike Eagle fly over the area of responsibility of the U.S. Central Command, November 2, 2022. (Photo: US Central Command)

As concerns increased in Washington about a possible Iranian attack on U.S. partners in the region, the F-22 Raptors were sent to the Middle East and carried out operations alongside the F-15E Strike Eagles on November 2, according to the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM).

The implementation demonstrates “the ability of CENTCOM to move combat resources to the CENTCOM region very quickly,” said Colonel Joe Buccino, spokesman for the command. CENTCOM refused to say whether the F-22s were mobilized in response to Iranian threats.

U.S. media reports indicated the day before that Saudi Arabia was concerned about the possibility of an Iranian attack and shared this information with the U.S.

“We recognize that Saudi Arabia remains under threat of attack by Iran and Iran’s representatives, the Houthis in Yemen, and we recognize that there are 70,000 Americans living and working in Saudi Arabia, including thousands of U.S. soldiers,” said White House Security Council strategic communications coordinator John Kirby on November 2.

CENTCOM tweeted several photos showing U.S. military aircraft on patrol, including F-22s based at the Elmendorf-Richardson Joint Base in Alaska.

The serial number of the KC-135 Stratotanker that refuels one of the F-22s is 23498, indicating that it is assigned to MacDill Air Base in Florida. It has been operating in the CENTCOM area since the end of September, according to flight tracking data from the ADS-B Exchange website. The tail codes on the F-15 indicate that they are assigned to Mountain Home Air Base, Idaho.

CENTCOM did not say when the F-22s were deployed in the region or how many of the air-air fighters are now operating there. But the F-22 have already been deployed during a period of high voltage. In February, the U.S. sent F-22 fighters to the United Arab Emirates after being targeted by Iran-backed drone and missile attacks from Houthi rebels in Yemen.

The Wall Street Journal reported on November 1 that Saudi Arabia had recently provided the U.S. information that Iran could attack Saudi Arabia and Erbil in northern Iraq. The U.S. and Saudi Arabia accused Iran of attacking the kingdom's oil infrastructure with drones and missiles in 2019.

“We are constantly monitoring threat flows in the region and maintain constant contact with our partners in the region, including the Saudi Arabian Armed Forces,” Buccino said on November 1. "When appropriate, we will not hesitate to act to defend our forces or partners in the region."

In March, Iran launched ballistic missile attacks in the semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan in northern Iraq. In September, a US war plane knocked down an Iranian drone that it considered a possible threat to Erbil. The Air Force Central (AFCENT) regularly patrols against drones in the region.

“I think that every day, the threat we face the most – and it’s not just the U.S. forces or coalition forces that are deployed in the region, but all our regional partners face – is from the Iranian threat network,” said Lieutenant General Alexus G. Grynkewich, commander of AFCENT, at the AFA Air, Space and Cybernetics Conference in September.

The U.S. Air Force uses the Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia.

Protests across the country against the theocratic government have stirred Iran. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard of Iran blamed Saudi Arabia, among others, for instigating the protests. The U.S. said it is reevaluating its alliance with Saudi Arabia after the Biden administration accused the kingdom of cooperating with Russia as part of the OPEC + oil cartel to keep oil prices high after Moscow's renewed invasion of Ukraine. However, the US has not officially changed its policy towards Saudi Arabia.

“Nothing has changed in the relationship so far,” Kirby said. "But this is separate and distinct from the fact that we recognize that Iran's threat is real. We remain worried about this threat. And we will continue to work not only with our Saudi partners, but with other partners in the region to better deal with this threat."

Tags: Military AviationF-22 RaptorUSAF - United States Air Force / US Air ForceWar Zones - Iran

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Fernando Valduga

Fernando Valduga

Aviation photographer and pilot since 1992, he has participated in several events and air operations, such as Cruzex, AirVenture, Dayton Airshow and FIDAE. It has works published in specialized aviation magazines in Brazil and abroad. Uses Canon equipment during his photographic work in the world of aviation.

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