#Russian Regional Jet

[nocternalrandomness]

Sukhoi Superjet 100-95B

[derehono]

24.02.2022.

The day that changed my life forever.

24th of February 2022 should have been my usual day. No, not usual. A wonderful day. I should have been checked with a doctor, gave notice to teachers in high school of my absence, and then fly away on vacation, my parents wanted it so much.

On 23rd of February 2022 I felt happy. I had a secure, happy life, preparing to finals, hanging out with my friends, already having an offer from university.

Until 5AM 24.02.2022.

I had not a single class in my school since then.

I haven’t seen my friend group in 2 years.

I didn’t have my finals.

We did not have that vacation.

“Daughter, wake up. This old psychotic man attacked us. We are leaving.”

That was my first photo of the day, trying sarcastically keep myself normal. I remember that actual emptiness, reading my classmates texts about how their windows were shaking because of explosions, the sky was orange. They sent that video.

He called it “a special military operation”.

I collected random clothes, some hobby stuff just to keep my sanity, grabbed my pet, emptied my safety locker. I was scared that russians would intrude into our home and steal all my savings, so I throw away key to that lock. This key became my symbol of war, I have never found it even after return.

When I with my parents and pet got out of flat to car we heard for the very first time air raid siren. We would hear so many more of them, we would learn to differentiate them, but then we were confused.

It was my second photo. People were going away. Foot, cars, bicycles. I remember such a surreal picture. Some moms were carrying their toddlers, one woman was carrying a bucket of water with turtles, other people were carrying cages with parrots, with dogs, with cats, with exotic pets despite air raid siren, temperature, rain. Everyone was so confused and scared.

Few days later the road we were riding was occupied. Bridges destroyed. Factories burnt. Supermarkets demolished. Houses in ruins. Road in holes. On the side of the road burnt cars with “DO NOT TOUCH, POSSIBLY EXPLOSIVE”. That gut wrenching feeling seeing photos of dead bodies and recognising the place.

But back then it was still lively, not a road of death. I remember reading news then. First victims, first shelling. Invasion from East. Invasion from Kharkiv region. Invasion from Crimea. Invasion from Chernihiv. Invasion from Zhytomyr. And we were in Zhytomyr region at that moment. Explosions in Kyiv. The border was destroyed.

I felt nothing. Just emptiness.

This precious girl was keeping my head cool all the road. She was also scared and irritated, but she was so strong, such an amazing girl. I am so proud of her.

We were heading to my grandparents who lived closer to West Ukraine, so we would be safer. The road that takes usually just 4 hours but that time it took 13 hours. 13 hours of driving exhausted and nerved. We saw soldiers, trucks, jets, how barricades were built, signs were removed.

But we made it. We were lucky. Lucky to be alive, to have family alive and mostly close to West, further from russia. Even though, part of my extended family still was under occupation in Chernihiv region, suffering from such close border with belarus.

When we arrived, we were just silent. Then collected mattresses for shelter, asked grandpa to grab some patrol (we knew that they would definitely destroy reservoirs and literally next day the started doing that), and just fell asleep in something that we arrived in, being so scared.

That day I also cut ties with russian friend who I am shamed to admit having. He was proving me that this is just a military operation, no one would be harmed.

Then, arrived spring that I will never forget but at the same time never remember. I remember 10 people in one floor house. I remember the whistle of rocket that woke us up. I remember sirens. I remember news. I remember losing hope. I remember first photos after deoccupation of Kyiv region. I remember how forgotten friend of my dad suddenly called him saying that his city is fully destroyed, his neighbour right on his eyes was exploded attempting to get into the car and evacuate.

I remember my first mental breakdown. How I was crying in the darkness, but quietly so no one would notice.

We were able to return home three months later. But we are just lucky. Someone would never return. Someone is not even alive to see their home again. Someone’s home is forever destroyed.

I was lucky that I have secured my place at foreign university before war, but my whole family is still in Ukraine.

War is not over at all. 20% of Ukraine is occupied. So many displaced civilians, so many deaths. No one could even count, we do not have any access to bodies. Only way to identify is to deoccupy and find mass graves. No other means. Children are suffering from PTSD even in such a young age. Almost in every city, big or small, you would find graveyards covered in Ukrainian flag, grave of the soldier.

Maybe media does not talk that much of us, but it doesn’t mean that everything is alright. Avdiivka is destroyed, right now operation searching for people under debris of the civilian house after attack is undergoing.

And this is happening all the time.

Who was punished for Olenivka? Who was punished for destruction of Kakhovka Dam? Who was punished for all fully destroyed cities? Who was responsible for all that absolutely atrocious videos torturing Ukrainian soldiers?

Please, remember, Ukraine is still on fire. People are still dying. Soldiers cannot even counterattack because they do not have enough ammo, just for protection. Information war is also waging, sharing all that misinformation, Nazi narratives, russian propaganda.

Remember.

Help.

Share.

russia is a terrorist state.

Glory to Ukraine.

Glory to the Heroes.

[mariacallous]

It was almost two years ago that Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. As another winter of war arrives, voices skeptical of the country’s prospects are growing louder—not in diplomatic meetings or military planning sessions, but rather in news reports and in expert commentary. Most do not openly argue that Ukraine should simply give up its fight, but the pessimism, buttressed by supposedly pragmatic arguments, carries clear strategic implications that are both dangerous and wrong.

These skeptics suggest that the current situation on the battlefield will not change and that, given Russia’s vastly greater resources, the Ukrainians will be unable to retake more of their territory. They argue that international support for Ukraine is eroding and will plummet sharply in the coming months. They invoke “war fatigue” and the supposedly bleak prospects of our forces.

The skeptics are correct that our recent counteroffensive did not achieve the lightning-fast liberation of occupied land, as the Ukrainian military managed in the fall of 2022 in the Kharkiv region and the city of Kherson. Observers, including some in Ukraine, anticipated similar results over the past several months, and when immediate success did not materialize, many succumbed to doom and gloom. But pessimism is unwarranted, and it would be a mistake to let defeatism shape our policy decisions going forward. Instead, policymakers in Washington and other capitals should keep the big picture in mind and stay on track. A Ukrainian victory will require strategic endurance and vision—as with our recent counteroffensive, the liberation of every square mile of territory requires enormous sacrifice by our soldiers—but there is no question that victory is attainable.

Over nearly two years of brutal war in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has upped the ante to the point that half-solutions are impossible. Any outcome besides a clear defeat of Russia in Ukraine would have troubling implications, and not just for my country—it would cause a global disarray that would ultimately threaten the United States and its allies, as well. Authoritarian leaders and aggressors around the world are keeping a close watch on the results of Putin’s military adventure. His success, even if partial, would inspire them to follow in his footsteps. His defeat will make clear the folly of trying.

STAGES OF VICTORY

Wars of this scale are fought in stages. Some of those stages may be more successful than others. What matters is the end result. In Ukraine, that means both fully restoring our territorial integrity and bringing those responsible for international crimes to justice—goals that are both clear and feasible. Meeting those objectives would ensure not only a just and lasting peace in Ukraine but also that other malicious forces around the world are not left with the impression that mimicking Putin will ultimately pay off.

The current phase of the war is not easy for Ukraine or for our partners. Everyone wants quick, Hollywood-style breakthroughs on the battlefield that will bring a quick collapse of Russia’s occupation. Although our objectives will not be reached overnight, continued international support for Ukraine will, over time, ensure that local counteroffensives achieve tangible results on the frontlines, gradually destroying Russian forces and thwarting Putin’s plans for a protracted war.

Some skeptics counter that although such goals are just, they simply aren’t achievable. In fact, our objectives will remain militarily feasible as long as three factors are in place: adequate military aid, including jets, drones, air defense, artillery rounds, and long-range capabilities that allow us to strike deep behind enemy lines; the rapid development of industrial capacity in the United States and Europe as well as in Ukraine, both to cover Ukraine’s military needs and to replenish U.S. and European defense stocks; and a principled and realistic approach to the prospect of negotiations with Russia.

With these elements in place, our effort will bring marked progress on the frontlines. Yet that requires not veering off course and concluding that the fight is hopeless simply because one stage has fallen short of some observers’ expectations. Even with significant challenges, Ukraine has achieved notable results in recent months. We won the battle for the Black Sea and thereby restored a steady flow of maritime exports, benefiting both our economy and global food security. We’ve made gains on the southern front, recently securing a bridgehead on the eastern bank of the Dnieper River. And elsewhere, we have held off enormous Russian assaults and inflicted major losses on Russian forces, including by thwarting their attempts on Avdiivka and Kupiansk. Despite their gargantuan effort, Russian troops failed to secure any gains on the ground.

Indeed, over the last year and a half, the Ukrainian military has proved its ability to surprise skeptics. Against all odds, Ukrainian forces have liberated more than half the territory taken by Russia since February 2022. This did not happen with a single blow. After the liberation of Ukraine’s northeast in the first months of the war, we lost some ground in the east before regaining momentum—a sequence that demonstrates why drawing broad conclusions based on one stage of fighting is misleading. If the war were only about numbers, we would have already lost. Russia may try to outnumber us, but the right strategy, advanced planning, and adequate support will allow us to effectively strike back.

THE FALLACY OF NEGOTIATIONS

Some analysts believe that freezing the conflict by establishing a cease-fire is a realistic option at the moment. Proponents of such a scenario argue that it would lower Ukrainian casualties and allow Ukraine and its partners to focus on economic recovery and rebuilding, integration into the European Union and NATO, and the long-term development of our defense capabilities.

The problem is not just that a cease-fire now would reward Russian aggression. Instead of ending the war, a cease-fire would simply pause the fighting until Russia is ready to make another push inland. In the meantime, it would allow Russian occupying troops to reinforce their positions with concrete and minefields, making it nearly impossible to drive them away in the future and condemning millions of Ukrainians to decades of repression under occupation. Russia’s 2024 budget for the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine, amounting to 3.2 trillion Russian rubles (around $35 billion), is clear evidence of Moscow’s plan to dig in for the long haul and suppress resistance to Russian occupation authorities.

Moreover, whatever the arguments that such a scenario would be less costly for Ukraine and its partners, the reality is that such a negotiated cease-fire is not even on the table. Between 2014 and 2022, we endured approximately 200 rounds of negotiations with Russia in various formats, as well as 20 attempts to establish a cease-fire in the smaller war that followed Russia’s 2014 illegal annexation of Crimea and occupation of Ukraine’s east. Our partners pressed Moscow to be constructive, and when they ran into the Kremlin’s diplomatic wall, they insisted that Ukraine had to take the “first step,” if only to demonstrate that Russia was the problem. Following this flawed logic, Ukraine made some painful concessions. Where did it lead? To Russia's full-scale attack on February 24, 2022. Declaring yet again that Ukraine must take the first step is both immoral and naive.

If the frontline were frozen now, there is no reason to believe that Russia would not use such a respite to plan a more brutal attack in a few years, potentially involving not only Ukraine but also neighboring countries and even NATO members. Those who believe Russia will not attack a NATO country after celebrating success in Ukraine should recall how unimaginable a large-scale invasion of Ukraine seemed just two years ago.

SUPPORTING UKRAINE IS NOT CHARITY

Skeptics also argue that supporting Ukraine’s fight for freedom is too expensive and cannot be sustained indefinitely. We in Ukraine are fully aware of the amounts of assistance that we have received from the United States, European countries, and other allies, and we are immensely grateful to the governments, legislators, and individuals who have extended a helping hand to our country at war. We manage the support in the most transparent and accountable way: U.S. inspectors of military aid to Ukraine have found no evidence of significant waste, fraud, or abuse.

This support is not, and never has been, charity. Every dollar invested in Ukraine’s defense returns clear security dividends for its supporters. It has enabled Ukraine to successfully rebuff Russian aggression and avert a disastrous escalation in Europe. And Ukraine has done all this with American assistance totaling roughly three percent of the annual U.S. defense budget. What is more, most of this money has in fact been spent in the United States, funding the U.S. defense industry, supporting the development of cutting-edge technology, and creating American jobs—a reason that some local business leaders in the United States have publicly opposed withholding or cutting military aid to Ukraine.

Moreover, while the United States is Ukraine’s top defense partner—and Washington’s leadership in rallying support for Ukraine has been exemplary and essential—the United States has hardly borne the burden alone. As NATO’s secretary-general, Jens Stoltenberg, recently noted, other NATO members, including European countries and Canada, account for more than half of Ukraine’s military aid. A number of countries have provided more support as a percentage of GDP than the United States has: the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Slovakia, and the United Kingdom. Germany's assistance continues to grow, making it Ukraine's largest European supporter in absolute terms.

Attempts by some skeptics to brand Ukraine’s fight for freedom as just another futile “forever war” ignore these facts. Ukraine has never asked for American boots on the ground. The deal is fair: our partners provide us with what we need to win, and we do the rest of the job ourselves, defending not only our borders but also the borders of global democracy.

The United States has spent decades, and hundreds of billions of dollars, building and protecting an international order that could sustain and protect democracy and market economies, thus ensuring security and prosperity for Americans. It would be foolish to give up on that investment now. If democracy is allowed to fall in Ukraine, adversaries of the United States will perceive weakness and understand that aggression pays. The price tag for defending U.S. national security against such threats would be many times higher than the one for supporting Ukraine and could spark decades of global turbulence with an uncertain outcome.

Scholars and analysts often warn of a World War III involving nuclear conflict between great powers. But they may overlook the risk of a world of smaller hot wars between states, with bigger powers feeling empowered to take advantage of their smaller neighbors—World Wars I, plural,rather than World War III. Without a common commitment to Ukrainian victory, Russian aggression could in hindsight mark the onset of such a world.

LISTEN TO UKRAINIANS

No country in the world desires peace more than Ukraine. It is not our side that wants this war to drag on indefinitely—Putin does. (We have a clear vision of the path to peace, as laid out in President Volodymyr Zelensky’s ten-point Peace Formula.) And it is Ukraine that is paying the greatest price for this war. We are losing some of our best men and women every day. There is hardly a Ukrainian family that has not directly felt the pain of war. Our warriors have in many cases been serving for more than 20 months, stuck in muddy or icy trenches under daily Russian bombardment, with no return date in sight; the toll on civilians, whether enduring brutal airstrikes or occupation, keeps growing, and the horror of Ukrainian children being stolen and then “adopted” by Russian families for “re-education” continues to haunt us all.

Yet even with our suffering, weariness, and struggles, Ukrainians are not willing to give up, to opt for “peace” at any price. Eighty percent of Ukrainians oppose making territorial concessions to Russia, according to a recent survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology. Another poll found that 53 percent of Ukrainians were prepared to endure years of wartime hardship for the sake of a Ukrainian victory. Ukrainians would not be ready to give up even in the event of a significant decrease in foreign military aid: polling in November by the New Europe Center showed that only eight percent of Ukrainians think that such a reduction should push us into negotiations with Russia. (Thirty-five percent said that a Russian willingness to withdraw troops from Ukraine would be the necessary condition for starting talks, and 33 percent said that under no conditions should talks begin at all.)

Western analysts who urge Ukraine to accept a hasty cease-fire on unfavorable terms neglect such views. For years, policymakers and experts in Europe and the United States failed to listen to Ukrainian warnings that both diplomacy and business as usual with Russia were no longer possible. It took a large-scale invasion and enormous destruction and suffering for them to recognize that the Ukrainian warnings were right. They should not fall into the same trap again.

ALLIES AT WAR

In the summer of 1944, in the weeks after the World War II Allies’ D-Day landing, the headlines in allied capitals were often pessimistic: “Allied Pace Slows,” “Delays in Normandy: Overcaution of Allies and Bad Weather Seen as Factors Upsetting Schedule,” “Terrain Slows Tanks, U.S. Officer Explains.” Even after Allied success in Normandy, the massive Operation Market Garden in the German-occupied Netherlands in September 1944 proved challenging. It had been expected to bring the war to a close but instead yielded limited successes and massive Allied losses. Yet pessimistic headlines and disappointing, even costly, setbacks did not cause the Allies to give up.

At the end of last month, I attended a NATO ministerial meeting in Brussels. What struck me most was the disparity between the mood inside the chamber and the mood outside it. On the sidelines, reporters opened their questions by asserting that the war had reached a “stalemate” and that “war fatigue” would cripple support, before wondering why Ukraine wouldn’t offer to trade territory for peace. Yet such defeatist narratives were absent in the official discussions, with ministers making a firm commitment to additional military aid and sustained support.

However prevalent a false narrative of attrition becomes, we should not allow it to set policymaking and our shared strategy on a disastrous course. Nor should we be duped into believing that Moscow is ready for a fair negotiated solution. Opting to accept Putin’s territorial demands and reward his aggression would be an admission of failure, which would be costly for Ukraine, for the United States and its allies, and for the entire global security architecture. Staying the course is a difficult task. But we know how to win, and we will.

[otgo-brooklyn]

I know its not art, but here is my contribution rant to the Russian!Ice HC:

His Name; So normally just naming your kid 'Tom', as an American, even now, is pretty unusual- its mostly Thomas that then gets shortened into 'Tom' or another nickname. HOWEVER, in Russia there is a name Toma, Toma traditionally (from my family's regional background atleast) it means 'twin', which would also push for the Sarah Kazansky is Ice's sibling HC as well.

During the immigration process, especially during the 80s or before, many times due to not having immediate translation available, names were translated based on sound. For example: My grandfather who immigrated in the 70s has a different spelling for his last name than my great-uncle who immigrated at the same time, so things like this happening in immigration offices isnt inaccurate

Therefore; its perfectly realistic that at an immigration office, when Ice said his name was Toma, based on the regional dialect, it could have easily sounded like Tom, hence his full name being 'Tom' (with Sarah's being the equivalent to Sasha, or even a more Russian pronunciation of 'Sara')

Not only that, but the Russian origin could explain why he appears so standoffish, and a little out of the social loop- with Slider acting as some sort of protector. They would have been in the height of the Cold War with rising tensions, so of course Ice would've wanted to hide that portion of him, but America is also a HUGE culture shock to even some Americans. So you have Ice who is attempting to assimilate, but still doesn't understand to the fullest, and English is hard, so it makes sense for Sliders protectiveness/defense and Ice's distant social ability.

His Call Sign; so we know Ice got his Call Sign due to being an 'iceman' up in the air, and while this is true for some pilots, if Ice is from Russia, the most likely chance is he is trying to remember how to actually fly the plane/jet, because American aviators and Russian aviators don't learn on the same aircraft, they're notably different- ESPECIALLY in the 80s- so his 'ice cold' persona in the air could most likely be him concentrating to the best of his ability to keep both him and his RIO alive.

Plus, the last name 'Kazansky' is incredibly popular in Russia, so even if Ice isnt from Russia himself it isnt inaccurate to say that he had Russian/Slavic ancestry

( Ice teaching Baby!Bradley Russian when watching him and Bradley remembering/becoming slightly fluent- can understand perfectly has trouble speaking- because kids pick up languages like sponges to water)

(Ice telling Mav how much he loves him in Russian)

(Ice making delicious traditional Russian/Slavic food for him, Mav, and Bradley)

If I missed any please let me know!

[blueiscoool]

Wagner Mercenary Group Boss Yevgeny Prigozhin Dead

A Private jet carrying Russian mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin has crashed with 10 people on board.

In addition to Prigozhin, neo-Nazi Wagner leader Dmitry Utkin was allegedly aboard on the plane and is now dead.

“Wagner-linked Telegram channel Grey Zone reported the Embraer aircraft was shot down by air defense in the Tver region, north of Moscow,” BBC reported.

[eretzyisrael]

For those who don't have X/twitter:

IMPORTANT TO READ

How much money does every American citizen pay to Israel every year out of his taxpayer's money?

US population is approximately 300 million, or 0.3 billion people.

US government invests approximately $3.8 billion per year into Israel. Do the math: $3.8 / 0.3 = $12.6 — that’s more or less the price of a 2 x 6-pack of Budweiser in 16-oz cans, a year.

75% of the aid must be spent in the US, which means the purchase of US military technology.

HOWEVER, HERE COMES THE IMPORTANT PART TO READ AND SHARE BECAUSE YOU WON’T GET IT FROM JOURNALISTS.

1.) The aid money sent as coupons to be spent in the US returns to the US as wages. Wages to workers at various companies, who then purchase from local business in the US, food, goods, entertainment and other items and services. It comes with further strings attached preventing Israel competing with US firms and further enhancing US profits.

2.) The US in return gets billions a year in recommendations for improvements to that technology as the Israelis use it—some of those improvements are saving US lives in other places. (Israel gets weapons, do thousands of man-hours to upgrade it for the Americans.

Since often the opponents of Israel use Russian weapons, the US gets the intelligence on the capabilities of those Russian systems as to keep ahead of Russian technology that might be used against the US. Similarly the US gets the benefit of Israeli technology in missile defense, which has saved the US billions in development.

In other words, Israel is a significant test bed for US military hardware. For example, it was mostly Israeli-flown but US-built F-15 fighter jets that accrued the F-15’s enviable record.

Further, Israeli intelligence services augment the CIA and have been considered VASTLY superior to the CIA capabilities in our part of the world—saving the US billions.

Further Israel has been a tool for US policy, such as mobilizing to prevent the overthrow of Jordan’s government during a planned Syrian intervention in a civil war, and information to governments as to terrorist attacks and assassinations planned on friendly nations.

The US has no troops in Israel, like it does to protect allies of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Japan, Germany, South Korea. The aid to Israel is cheaper, and no US soldiers are put in harms way.

(The cost of maintaining a US military presence in Germany and Japan, very wealthy nations which exist in much less volatile or strategic regions, is estimated to cost US taxpayers at least $20 billion per year for each nation. Israel is quite a bargain in comparison.)

BUT THAT’S NOT THE END.

3.) If America will stop the aid, the US military production will collapse. Tens of thousands of Americans (approx. 50,000) will loose their jobs, and US military will be required to use outdated military equipment because America doesn’t have wars and won’t create wars in order to test weapons.

For this purpose America has Israel, Ukraine, and other places including Colombia, Ethiopia.

4.) Note that Israel is a wealthy country. $3.8 billion of aid is about 1% of Israeli budget, and about 10% of Israeli defense budget. Without American taxpayer money, Israeli army would be almost as powerful as it is now. We don’t really have a powerful army because of an over-abundance of wealth from foreign aid.

We have a powerful army much because of an over-abundance of enemies.

Food for thought. So to all the “journalists” fearmongers who warn about some crisis between the states, not gonna happen. Chill. 🫵🏻

Send this to Kamala Harris and to pro-Hamas ISIS rioters and ignorants from New-York.

[usafphantom2]

US, Canadian Fighters Intercept Russian, Chinese Bombers Off Alaska

July 25, 2024 China, Russia

Five of the six fighters that escorted the Russian and Chinese bombers off Alaska are visible in this screenshot from the video released by the Russian MOD and published by Zvezda.

At least six NORAD fighters, including F-35, F-16 and CF-188 jets, intercepted Russian and Chinese bombers inside the Alaska ADIZ (Air Defense Identification Zone).

On July 24, 2024, NORAD (North American Aerospace Defense Command) detected, tracked, and intercepted two Russian Tu-95 and two Chinese H-6 aircraft operating within the Alaska Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). The intercept was conducted by NORAD fighter jets from both the United States and Canada.

According to the Russian MOD, the Russian and Chinese bombers were involved in a joint air patrol lasting more than 5 hours:

“An air group consisting of Tu-95ms strategic missile carriers of the Russian Aerospace Forces and H-6K strategic bombers of the PLA Air Force carried out air patrols over the waters of the Chukchi, Bering Seas and the North Pacific Ocean,” a news release says.

“During the flight, Russian and Chinese crews worked out issues of interaction at all stages of air patrol in the new area of ​​joint operations. Fighter air cover was provided by Su-30SM and Su-35S aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces.”

One of the Chinese H-6 bombers.

The mission of the Russian and Chinese bombers comes as the U.S. and allied forces are involved in RIMPAC 2024, a large exercise in the Pacific region near Hawaii, that this year sees the involvement of 29 nations, 40 surface ships, three submarines, 14 national land forces, over 150 aircraft, and 25,000 personnel.

Several interceptors

“At certain stages of the route, the air group was accompanied by fighters from foreign countries.”

In fact, footage filmed from aboard a Russian Tu-95 Bear show that at a certain point during their trip in international airspace within the Alaska ADIZ, the bomber was escorted by two F-16s of the 18th FIS (Fighter Interceptor Squadron), including one sporting the aggressor paint scheme; two U.S. F-35A stealth jets and two RCAF (Royal Canadian Air Force) CF-188 Hornets.

It is unclear whether all three pairs of fighters were scrambled to carry out a Visual Identification (VID) of the Russian and Chinese aircraft. Considering that at least one of the Canadian Hornets does not appear to be carrying any Air-to-Air Missiles (AAMs), it is possible that the two CF-188s were already airborne for a training mission and were then diverted to shadow the Tu-95s and H-6s.

For sure, the number of NORAD fighters visible in the clip released by the Russian MOD is unusual, if compared to other similar “close encounters” in the same area.

“During the execution of their missions, aircraft from both countries operated strictly in accordance with the provisions of international law. There were no violations of the airspace of foreign states,” the Ministry said. “Upon completion of the joint air patrol, all involved aircraft returned to their home airfields. The event was held as part of the implementation of the military cooperation plan for 2024 and is not directed against third countries.”

According to NORAD, the Russian and PRC aircraft stayed within international airspace and did not breach American or Canadian sovereign airspace. “This Russian and PRC activity in the Alaska ADIZ is not seen as a threat, and NORAD will continue to monitor competitor activity near North America and meet presence with presence.”

NORAD is a unique bi-national command between the United States and Canada. It utilizes a layered defense network composed of satellites, ground-based and airborne radars, and fighter aircraft, all operating seamlessly together to detect, track, and determine appropriate actions for aircraft. NORAD remains prepared to deploy various response options in defense of North America.

An ADIZ is a designated area of international airspace, extending beyond sovereign airspace, where the identification of all aircraft is required for national security purposes.

Air Defense Identification Zone

As explained in other articles, here at The Aviationist, there’s a significant difference between territorial sky and ADIZ.

The Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) is a designated airspace surrounding a nation or part of it where strict identification, tracking, and control of aircraft are enforced for national security reasons. Aircraft flying within these zones without proper authorization may be intercepted by fighter aircraft on Quick Reaction Alert (QRA). ADIZ boundaries often extend beyond national airspace covering territorial waters, and while not defined by international law, any civil aircraft entering these zones is closely monitored and required to provide flight details for identification. Military aircraft not intending to enter national airspace are generally exempt from ADIZ procedures, but foreign military planes within ADIZ may be intercepted, identified, and escorted.

Alaska ADIZ detail

About David Cenciotti

David Cenciotti is a journalist based in Rome, Italy. He is the Founder and Editor of “The Aviationist”, one of the world’s most famous and read military aviation blogs. Since 1996, he has written for major worldwide magazines, including Air Forces Monthly, Combat Aircraft, and many others, covering aviation, defense, war, industry, intelligence, crime and cyberwar. He has reported from the U.S., Europe, Australia and Syria, and flown several combat planes with different air forces. He is a former 2nd Lt. of the Italian Air Force, a private pilot and a graduate in Computer Engineering. He has written five books and contributed to many more ones.

@TheAviationist.com

[beardedmrbean]

WARSAW, Poland (AP) — NATO member Poland paid tribute Thursday to its historic victory over the Red Army by honoring fallen Poles and showing off modern tanks and other equipment that it hopes will deter the threat it sees in modern-day Russia.

A parade featuring Polish troops joined by some U.S. and other allied soldiers took place in Warsaw, the Polish capital, on the Armed Forces holiday, with tanks rolling down a major riverside thoroughfare and fighter jets flying overhead as thousands of waving people watched on.

“We must arm ourselves and build such potential that no one will ever dare to attack us,” President Andrzej Duda said ahead of the parade, the culmination of state commemorations.

Some of Poland’s new weapons have replaced Soviet- and Russian-made equipment sent to neighboring Ukraine after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of its democratic neighbor in 2022. Since Poland broke free of Moscow’s control 35 years ago and then joined NATO, it has worked to modernize its army.

Those efforts moved into higher gear after Russia under President Vladimir Putin first invaded Ukraine in 2014, and then again in 2022, with fears heightened all along the strategic stretch of NATO’s eastern flank — from the Baltic nations to Poland to Romania.

“Muscovites always threatened the peace here,” said Radoslaw Prokop, a 49-year-old who watched the parade. “For hundreds of years.”

U.S., British and Romanian soldiers riding in tanks with their national flags waving joined their Polish allies.

Jacek Szelenbaum, a 60-year-old truck driver, was among the thousands of spectators. His grandfather was forced to serve in a mounted infantry division of the Russian czar in the early 20th century, the waning years of a long Russian occupation over Warsaw and the surrounding region of Poland.

He said he realizes the parade is mostly for show but is still encouraged when he sees the military having more modern weaponry as the years go by.

“We feel a bit better because we see this good equipment, and we feel the presence of our allies, Americans, British, Romanian and others,” Szelenbaum said. “It’s necessary in this situation because Poland could never defend itself alone. Only in an alliance can we manage against Putin.”

The holiday falls on the anniversary of the 1920 Battle of Warsaw, in which Polish troops defeated Russian Bolshevik forces advancing on Europe, halting their western march.

The war in Ukraine has reminded Poland of the enduring threat it has long faced on the flat plains of central Europe wedged between larger, more powerful — and often aggressive — neighbors.

Even membership in NATO has not eased the sense of threat after Russia’s attack on Ukraine and a migration crisis that erupted in 2021 along Poland’s border with Belarus. Warsaw saw a sudden surge that year in large-scale migration from the Middle East and Africa as a form of hybrid warfare organized by Moscow and Minsk.

Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz wrote a letter to soldiers saying the holiday is a reminder of “the most glorious episodes of the Polish army, of the price of independence and freedom.”

“On this day, we pay tribute to all the heroes who fought for the homeland from the dawn of our country,” he added.

Russia’s war against neighboring Ukraine and the Poland-Belarus border crisis have led many Poles to fear what the Kremlin might do next, should it succeed in Ukraine.

Poland signed a $10 billion deal earlier this week with the U.S. government for 96 Apache attack helicopters.

Kosiniak-Kamysz said the Apaches, with their modern technology, mark a milestone for Poland’s efforts to modernize its military, and would allow Abrams tanks and F-35 aircraft to be used to their full capacities.

[darkmaga-retard]

by ZeroHedge News

Excerpts:

Russia has significantly stepped up its military cooperation with Iran amid the Islamic Republic’s showdown with Israel. Many days have passed since Israel’s assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, with the region still on edge awaiting a likely major Iranian response.

The NY Times and others confirmed this week that Russia has begun delivering radars and air defense equipment, possibly including S-400 anti-air missile components, to the Iranians.

This can be seen as Moscow’s ‘payback’ for America arming Ukraine. Now, Russia is arming America’s (and Israel’s) chief enemy in the Middle East.

While the Times report did not specify precisely what arms or defense equipment is being delivered, Iranian officials have long sought its S-400 Triumf air defense system. “The Times report did not say what equipment Iran had requested from Russia or what had been delivered,” Israeli media has noted of the report. “Iran already has some Russian-made S-300 air defense systems, though Moscow now has the more advanced S-400 system.”

The Iranians are reportedly also pressuring Moscow to fulfill delivery of Su-35S fighter jet fighters which were previously pledged in a defense deal, given the regional temperature is heating up fast.

Moscow likely feels obliged given the significant Iranian drone transfers it has received throughout the course of the Ukraine war. Iran has heavily aided Russian forces, and now Russia is quickly coming to Iran’s assistance.

Read the full article at ZeroHedge News. (Subscription needed.)

[quizzyisdone]

The Color Red (Part I) | Jason Hudson x Fem! Bell x Russell Adler

Chapter Title: The Divine Zero Word Count: 2.4k Pairing - Jason Hudson x Fem! Bell x Russell Adler Synopsis: When Russell Adler finds an agent of his sworn enemy, shot by one of her own, he brings her in, hoping to interrogate her for a lead to Perseus. When conventional interrogation falls short, Adler, blinded by his hatred to Perseus, resorts to other, more unsavory methods. Jason Hudson, his handler, can only watch from afar in horror as a potentially innocent woman has her entire life and identity erased in the blink of an eye. Told from Hudson's perspective. Warnings: Strong language, mentions of brainwashing, torture, canon-typical violence, dark romance, toxic relationships, love triangles

**Title inspired by "The Divine Zero" by Pierce the Veil

Masterlist

Maybe I could swim into your thoughts like your drugs do

Paralyze your body

Sick and tired of waking up to

Burning eyes and cigarettes

“1969, Camp Haskins. We met when you were assigned to MACV-SOG. You and I were embedded within the 3rd Marine Regiment near Da Nang. SOG was there to sniff out Soviet activity. Word had it Russian operatives were active in the region-” Adler began his usual spiel that he’d been citing for the last two days word for word.

He was speaking to the girl that was gagged and strapped into an interrogation chair, graphic videos from the war playing on three televisions all within her field of vision. Specially made liquidized LSD connected into her IV that injected it straight into her veins. All she could see was the war. All she could hear was the war. Perfect for Adler. Not only could he break her indelible will, but he could make her feel as he felt for years. Broken and destroyed.

She was sobbing, looking absolutely panicked, and Hudson couldn’t help but feel a twinge of guilt deep in his gut. She was probably a Red anyways, but this seemed… excessive. It had too closely echoed what he witnessed Mason go through years and years ago. Adler called it conditioning, but that was just a nicer sounding synonym for what it was -- brainwashing. But he was in no position to stop it now, Adler had made damn sure of that.

She was young, not quite “fresh out of her teens” young, early to mid twenties if he had to guess, but certainly younger than the two aged men sitting across from her behind the one sided glass. A decently pretty face, even after enduring a week straight of the CIA’s classic, finest interrogation methods, but otherwise unremarkable -- which was what made her oh-so remarkable to Adler. Given Adler's hot and cold personality, and the fact that she was here with an uncanny connection to his worst enemy and wasn’t hard on the eyes to boot, Hudson knew the man was borderline obsessed with the woman. He would have been surprised if Adler wasn’t attracted to her in his own twisted, fucked up way.

He always tended towards toxic extremes, anyways.

She was painfully, moderately above average by all standards. The most exotic thing about her was her muted accent and ginger locks. He couldn’t quite guess the origin of the accent (Eastern Europe, spoken with a twinge of British slang?), but she spoke English with the fluency of a native. A cute, well structured but round face framed with wavy, somewhat frizzy hair, tanned skin dotted with freckles, and a nose that once had been broken, judging by slight mishapenness of it, and hooked upwards at the end. 

Her face bore the marks of Adler’s interrogations, with one particularly large jet black bruise around her chestnut eyes. The most puzzling thing about her however was her singular, tiny tattoo of a bell on her arm that was inked right beneath the crease where the forearm meets the upper arm. Other than that, her body was devoid of any alterations such as piercings or other, bigger tattoos. 

That’s what the two had used for her namesake; Bell. The name she gave them couldn’t be trusted, given her circumstances of capture. The woman hadn’t given them anything else, a simple first name of Eleanor (she had omitted her surname) and the name of a man in MI6 who had long since been dead according to the records the agency was willing to give up to another foreign intelligence agency, which to no one’s surprise, wasn’t much.

“We had a job to do…” Adler trailed off, and snapped his fingers. The woman instantly fell asleep. 

“Alright, that should do it for today. Keep the tapes playing and turn the volume up a bit louder, she’ll need to hear it in order to feel like she’s there.” A British woman’s voice had piped up from the background. Helen Park.

Hudson didn’t dare face her, he was never one for psychological warfare in the first place and here he was in the presence of the expert in it. From what he understood, Agent Park helped “blossom” this MK-Ultra project from its infancy back in the 60’s to the powerhouse of a weapon it was now, twenty years later. He took a sip from his coffee.

“You’re awfully quiet, Hudson.” She pointed out. 

“He’s always quietly brooding, That’s sort of his thing.” Adler chuckled as he turned his chair to face her, reaching into his pocket for his lighter and pack of cigarettes. “Want a light?” He asked, a cigarette between his teeth as he held another one out to Hudson. 

Hudson nodded, grabbing his zippo lighter from his pocket and taking a long drag. 

“So, tell me about this team you’re putting together. I’ve taken the liberty of reviewing some of the candidates you submitted but I’d like to hear some of your reasoning, maybe offer some suggestions.” Park said, leaning against the file cabinet. Hudson scoffed.

“I don’t need your suggestions, Agent Park. MI6 is already way too entangled as is. ” He said with a cigarette in between his teeth. “You’re only here at Adler’s insistence. If the man didn’t have such a tight hold on Command’s balls, you wouldn’t be here.”

“You wound me Hudson.” She rolled her eyes. “I know you don’t like this as much as the next person, but given her stubbornness and the situation at hand, it’s the only way.” Park reasoned, Adler nodded coolly but glanced down for naught but a second, rubbing at his temples. 

“Bullshit, but anyways,” Hudson took another drag. “What did you want to know?”

“Alex Mason and Frank Woods are certainly a peculiar choice for our team, given the circumstances of our friend in the chair.”

“Hate to break it to you, but any high stakes, top secret mission with Hudson, they’ve got to be on it.” Adler gave a light chuckle, light jabbing at Hudson’s shoulder.

“They’re good soldiers and they know how to shut their mouths. As brass as they can be, they’re great agents when they’re together.” He took another drag of his cigarette, Park opened her mouth to object but he cut her off quickly. ”And I don’t intend to tell either of them about Bell’s situation if that’s what you’re concerned about.” Hudson said sternly.

“The conditioning is only one of my concerns, among plenty others. They are charming, loyal to a fault, and easy to get along with. I’d imagine they’d be quick friends with Bell. That creates a problem when we must depose her, no?”

“But somehow that’s not a problem with Azoulay. Is he not charming and friendly, especially to women such as yourself and Bell?” He retorted.

“The big guy?” Adler chimed in, a slight smirk appeared across his features. “He’s not as emotionally volatile as Mason and Woods. He’d understand.”

“Fine. Regarding Mason and Woods, we’ll just have to make it convincing enough to take the blame off of you. They’ve been in the field long enough and seen plenty of people die, they’ll get over it even if they do befriend her.” Hudson began. “They’re tough bastards. Everyone on the team has been contacted, so it’s too late to change.” Hudson snuffed his cigarette on his boot, tossing it into the ashtray.

“I think Bell here has gone through enough today.” He muttered to himself.

“Pardon?” Park raised an eyebrow.

“I think Bell has gone through plenty today.” Hudson repeated, louder, ignoring protests from Park and Adler.

In an act of kindness atypical of a man such as Hudson, he rose from his uncomfortable, government issued swivel chair, striding towards the door leading into the room the girl was in. He turned off the television with the flashing images of Vietnam, removed her gag, and loosened her restraints.

Hudson snapped near her ear, and she was awake. He glanced at her eyes, noting how terrified they appeared. 

“Can you walk?” He spoke gruffly. The girl nodded, unsure and slow. Gingerly, she gripped at the arm rests, using it to leverage herself up. This was the most silence he’d ever heard from her, normally she always had some profanity to spew at whoever woke her up from the sessions. This was a degree of success Hudson did not expect, and secretly cursed.

Slowly and a bit unsteadily, she began to walk towards the door leading to the hallway where she knew by now she’d find her cell. Hudson placed a hand on his holster and the other ghosting at the small of her back -- not quite touching, but she most definitely knew it was there. 

Her walk was rather sedate, more akin to the undead than a real person, and the need for handcuffs just days ago was no longer there. Adler had broken her enough to where she just wouldn’t fight back anymore. 

“Get some rest.” He muttered when they reached her cell.

“Like you give a shit.” She said, with equal parts venom and pronounced exhaustion. Her voice was low, raspy, laced with an accent Adler himself admitted to finding rather exotic.

Hudson ignored her provocation. “Someone will bring you something to eat later.”

“Tell them to bring a cigarette.” She hoarsely laughed to herself as Hudson closed the door behind him, lightly chuckling to himself. She had been begging for a cigarette ever since Adler took her into custody, and once or twice she’d been indulged when she promised information in exchange for a light. At least there’s one glue that will hold this rag-tag team together; a crippling nicotine addiction. 

But even that was something Adler was trying to take from her. “It’s bad for her, we’re doing our little Bell a favor on this one.” He laughed when Hudson had questioned him about it, even as he hypocritically took a drag of his fifth one in the past three hours. Scarcely could Adler be seen without one in his hand, especially so since Trabzon, since Perseus came back into play.

Hudson went back into the room behind the two-sided glass, finding it now deserted. The pair must’ve called it quits for the day. Funny, he did not expect Adler to actually respect his authority in this situation, maybe he was just as tired as everyone else was. 

Hudson found it amusing once upon a time -- Adler’s almost absolute disregard for command when it did not suit the mission, maybe even virtuous at some moments, but now Hudson could not stand his impudence. People have been hurt, not saved this time around. 

Adler’s cruel desperation was evident in the way he treated Bell. He had not always been so unkind in the thirteen years Hudson had known him, so casually malicious as he was with only Bell. He has such a dark twisted obsession with the woman, he electrocutes her and calls her pretty all in the same breath. 

He had been a decent friend of Hudson for years, until a few weeks ago, a great respect remained unspoken between them but omnipresent in their friendship. Now, that rather optimistic viewpoint that was so rare for Hudson to behold of someone, had dwindled. Does he not remember Mason and the numbers, the macabre stories of what happened to him and what happened to others because of him? Or was he simply too blinded by Perseus to see? Or did he simply just not care?

The latter, even through Hudson’s now tainted lens of the man, seemed unlikely. Adler was not an uncaring, needlessly cruel man. Gruff and rough around the edges, most certainly, but never unnecessarily brutal like his actions towards Bell may suggest. One moment, the man was a stranger to Hudson, the next, an old friend. 

“What’s got you so lost in thought?” Adler clapped a hand on Hudson’s shoulder, startling the man. Speak of the devil.

“Mm.” He grunted. “Nothing.”

“Hm, so you just stare into nothing in your free time?” Adler said coolly. “I bet it's your wife?”

Hudson rolled his eyes, irritated at the scarred man before him, completely oblivious to even what was bothering him. The situation with Jacqueline had stopped badgering at his heart, eating him from the inside out long ago, Adler knew that well. 

“Sure.” 

“Just sign the damn divorce papers then.” Adler said, lighting yet again, another damn cigarette.

“You’re a fucking idiot.” He rubbed at his forehead, pulling the cigarette from Adler’s mouth and unceremoniously snuffing it in the ashtray. 

“What the fuck?” He spat, the indignancy becoming apparent in his tone. “What the hell is wrong with you?”

“What the hell is wrong with you?” Hudson snarled, rising from the chair he was previously slumped in. “Do you not see what you’re doing?”

“What? Bell?” Adler recollected himself, his infuriatingly cool demeanor once again washing over him as his mouth settled into a signature frown. “Why are you even mad about that?”

“Do you not remember Mason? Do you not remember that load of horseshit twenty years ago?” He glared daggers at Adler, and for a brief moment, there was silence ringing off the walls of the cinderblock room. Adler suddenly took a keen interest in his feet as Hudson awaited his answer.

“Mason was different.” He looked up again, his sunglasses making it almost impossible for Hudson to read his expression. “She’s a bad guy, he’s a good guy. He didn’t deserve it, she probably does.”

“Probably.” He scoffed. “You don’t even know anything about her. All you know was that some man associated with Perseus shot her.”

“I don’t have time to wait for a confession after months of interrogation or chase MI6 ghosts. You know what happens when Perseus comes into play. Nukes, noxious gasses, WMD's, that kind of shit.” Adler defended. “If she truly knows anything about Perseus, we owe it to everyone in the goddamn world to do whatever we can.”

“Oh spare me the soapbox.” Hudson laughed. “You tried conventional interrogation for one day and then immediately went for MK Ultra. You barely even tried the MI6 lead.” Hudson sighed, shocked at his own moral disgust. Perhaps Jacqueline was wrong -- he did have a heart. “We don’t even know if this is the right tree to be barking at, and if this isn’t, then the consequences are on your head. Not mine.”

“Go ahead, let it all fall on me if it goes south-”

“When it goes south.” Hudson interrupted,  glancing over, and silence ensued for a moment before he continued.

“That’s a risk I’m willing to take if it means a shot at Perseus.” Adler took the previously snuffed cigarette that Hudson had snatched from his mouth, relighting it. “You had the power to stop this, y’know. This isn’t all my fault.”

He was right.

[creeperthescamp]

[nocternalrandomness]

A Russian Antonov An-148 at the 2019 MAKS Airshow

[zvaigzdelasas]

Huh. Maybe we could avoid that by moving US jets out of Syria, just a thought [28 Apr 23]

[mariacallous]

While the failure to break through Russia’s fortified defensive lines on the southern axis this summer has been disappointing for Kyiv, the news on the diplomatic and political front is far more alarming.

Speaking about the progress of Ukraine’s counteroffensive in early December, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told The Associated Press: “We wanted faster results. From that perspective, unfortunately, we did not achieve the desired results. And this is a fact.”

While Ukraine has achieved some limited successes this year, with results in the Black Sea in the summer and a Kherson-region bridgehead firmly established east of the Dnipro River in the fall, the lack of significant territorial gains is a bitter pill to swallow for Kyiv.

But despite these setbacks, with the final taboos overcome regarding providing the heavy weaponry and long-range missile capabilities needed to win this war, the trajectory of the conflict was still arguably trending in Ukraine’s favor, according to many Western military experts, just as long as the coalition of democratic nation states maintaining Ukraine’s wartime economy held strong and the arms transfers kept arriving.

Winter’s developments, however, paint a far worse picture. Given the immense risks ahead, it is imperative that Kyiv starts preparing now for a future in which that coalition has fragmented.

In Europe, election victories for allies of Russian President Vladimir Putin in Slovakia’s Robert Fico and the Netherlands’ Geert Wilders have potentially added further blocks on European Union financial and military aid packages. Hungary’s Viktor Orban now has more leverage in his attempts to disrupt the bloc’s Ukraine policy, including holding up a new round of sanctions on Russia and a proposed 50 billion euro ($54.9 billion) aid package, even if his opposition to the EU opening accession talks for Ukraine has been successfully navigated by the bloc.

Orban was previously isolated inside the EU, which overtook the United States as the largest overall donor of aid to Ukraine over the summer. If Wilders manages to form a governing coalition and become prime minister, it could not only imperil the planned transfer of Dutch F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, but also become a major threat to future EU aid packages going forward.

Winter has also seen a truck driver protest in Poland and Slovakia, which have been blocking Ukrainian border crossings in a dispute over EU permits for Ukrainian shipping companies, which has in turn impacted the flow of volunteer military aid coming into Ukraine.

While Kyiv will be disappointed by these events, they are not insurmountable. Support for Ukraine remains high in Brussels, and Orban has proved himself capable of relenting on similar packages in the past, leveraging Hungary’s veto in exchange for EU concessions toward Budapest. Individually, member states such as Germany and the Baltic nations also continue to send substantial military aid to Kyiv outside of the structures of the European Union.

The news from the United States, however, is far more bleak. Speaking to reporters on Dec. 4, White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan laid out in stark terms that the funds allocated by the government for Ukraine were spent, warning that if Congress did not pass further funding bills, it would impact Ukraine’s ability to defend itself.

“Each week that passes, our ability to fully fund what we feel is necessary to give Ukraine the tools and capacities it needs to both defend its territory and continue to make advances, that gets harder and harder,” Sullivan said.

The White House has been trying to pass a $61.4 billion aid package for Ukraine (part of which would go to replenishing U.S. Defense Department stocks), tied together with a package of aid to Israel and Taiwan, which is being blocked by congressional Republicans in a dispute over the Biden administration’s border policies.

Despite a majority of Republicans supporting increased military aid to Ukraine, bills trying to secure further funding have stalled in both the Senate and the House of Representatives since the caucus of far-right, pro-Trump House Republicans ousted Kevin McCarthy as the speaker of the House of Representatives, replacing him with Ukraine military aid opponent Mike Johnson.

After Johnson was elected speaker, he appeared to walk back his opposition to Ukraine funding, in an apparent bid to win over some of his Reaganite skeptics in the Republican Party. However, he has chosen to try to leverage the urgency of the Biden administration’s Ukraine package to advance the Republicans’ anti-immigration platform.

This is no longer isolated to the House, as even pro-Ukraine senators, such as Lindsey Graham, joined Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in blocking the White House’s security package amid chaotic scenes in the Senate. With Senate Republicans falling in line with the legislative agenda of the House’s hard-right “Freedom Caucus” Republican wing, Ukraine will enter the Christmas period under sustained Russian aerial bombardment with depleted air defense ammunition stocks.

The United States is incapable of replenishing those stocks due to the domestic political wrangling of a small band of hard-line, anti-immigration Republican lawmakers, and Ukrainian civilians will likely die as a result of this amoral legislative obstinance. In Kyiv, where I live, the sense that these conservative lawmakers are willing to recklessly endanger Ukrainian lives for selfish political ends is palpable.

The Biden administration has expressed a willingness to compromise in order to try to break the impasse, but there is no certainty in where these negotiations could go. The size of this aid bill is itself a strategic move. The $61.4 billion package dwarfs any of the previous U.S. aid packages to Ukraine (which as of August 2023 totaled more than $77 billion), representing a more “one and done” approach to meeting Ukraine’s military aid needs for the entirety of 2024 and the remainder of President Joe Biden’s term.

If it passes, there will be no further opportunities in the short term for the Make America Great Again caucus to hold Ukrainian aid to ransom.

But the problems don’t stop there. The United States and Europe have both failed to produce enough artillery ammunition to meet Ukraine’s needs, and this shortfall led to South Korea becoming a larger supplier of artillery ammunition in 2023 than all European nations combined. But Korea’s supplies are not limitless, and U.S. and European production is still not at the levels needed to sustain Ukraine going forward. If this shortfall is not addressed, the consequences could be disastrous.

There are more hopeful signs that these problems are well understood, and that the coalition of nations supporting Ukraine remains committed to the cause in the long term. “Wars develop in phases,” said NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in a recent interview with the German public broadcaster ARD in early December. “We have to support Ukraine in both good and bad times,” he said.

Everything now points to a long war in Ukraine, although none of this should have been unforeseeable for Western policymakers and defense chiefs. Ukraine’s top military c, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, gave a much-publicized interview with the Economist in November, in which he said “just like in the first world war, we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate.”

These comments, however, despite appearing to create the impression of a public rift between Zaluzhny and Zelensky, are not a concession of defeat from the four-star general. Zaluzhny made clear that he is trying to avoid the kind of grinding attritional warfare that favors Russia’s long-term strategy for wearing Ukraine down.

But a long war also heightens one of the biggest threats. Even if the Biden administration manages to get the new aid package over the line, effectively securing Ukraine’s military funding for 2024, the specter of another presidency for Donald Trump still looms large on the horizon. The polling for Biden less than one year away from an election is deeply concerning, and Trump’s prospects for victory need to be taken seriously, even in the face of his growing legal jeopardy.

A second Trump presidency would imperil not just U.S. democracy, but also the entire global world order, and the consequences for Ukraine could be potentially devastating. Trump’s refusal to commit to continuing to support Ukraine should be setting off alarm bells—not just in Kyiv, but across Europe too, where the greatest impacts from this change of policy would be felt.

Trump’s first impeachment was over his attempt to extort Ukraine to search for compromising material that he could use against Biden in the 2020 election, and there is no reason to believe that Trump has moved on from this. Many in Washington expect that a second Trump presidency will be marked by his desire for revenge against anyone that stood in his way. As the U.S. analyst and author Michael Weiss told me, “Trump’s first impeachment was over Ukraine, and he sees it as an abscess to be lanced. … A Trump presidency would be an unmitigated disaster for Ukraine.”

There are also signs that the Russians are acutely aware of this, and that their strategy in the short-to-medium term is simply to hold out in Ukraine long enough for a Trump presidency to pull the plug on the vital military aid keeping the Ukrainians in the fight. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu recently remarked that the Russians expect the war to last beyond 2025, and in an address to his own propaganda think tank, Putin said that Ukraine would have a “week to live” if Western arms supplies were halted.

Ukraine cannot plan for a war that may extend beyond 2025 without preparing for a potential Trump presidency and all that would entail. The Ukrainian government must prepare for every eventuality, including a White House that is actively hostile toward Kyiv. To his credit, Zelensky appears to have acknowledged this possibility, going as far as inviting Trump to visit Kyiv.

Putin has made it perfectly clear that he sees his war in Ukraine as being part of a wider war that he is waging against the entire West. Western policymakers to take him at his word on this. Putin and his regime have been waging a hybrid war against the West for many years, and he considers his support for European extremists such as Fico, Wilders and France’s Marine Le Pen to be part of that war and part of undermining the Western liberal democratic institutions, such as the EU and NATO, that stand in opposition to Putin’s tyranny.

But there is no single individual on the planet more important to Putin’s global war agenda than his pet authoritarian in Mar-a-Lago.

Moscow’s goals in Ukraine remain unchanged; the Putin regime still maintains maximalist aims in Ukraine and is in this war for the long haul, with the total subjugation of Kyiv as its goal. Putin made his position very clear during his annual news conference. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has also been explicit about this, and Europe should take the ongoing threat that a Trump administration poses to Ukraine seriously. There may well be a potential future in which Europe is forced to carry the burden of Ukraine’s war without its North American ally at the helm of the coalition, or even at the head of the collective defense strategy at the heart of European foreign policy.

Looking forward to 2024, there remains no path to peace in Ukraine without a Russian defeat. Looking beyond 2025, the future of Ukraine as a free and democratic nation-state, and potentially the entire security of Europe, hang in the balance.

This is why Europe, in particular, cannot afford to be complacent in the face of the rising threat of a Trump presidency. Opening EU accession talks for Ukraine is a good start, but until the bloc can match or outperform Russia’s current levels of ammunition production, the tide will start to turn against Ukraine if U.S. leadership on this war continues to falter. The truth is that U.S. leadership on this and on any other pressing international issue cannot be guaranteed.

For Ukraine to stand a chance of victory, its allies must begin preparing for catastrophe now.

[captain-price-unofficially]

Russian air defenses appear to have shot down Russian jet near the Morozovsk military airfield in Rostov region, 286km from the frontline.

[blueiscoool]

Russian Su-25 Fighter Jet Shot Down

A Ukrainian drone captures the last few seconds of a Russian Su-25 close air support fighter jet crashing in the Donetsk region after having been shot down by the Ukrainian Army earlier today.