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Bubble Watch 2021: Indiana slumping in bid to make the cut

3:01 AM ET

John GasawayESPN Insider

ESPN Insider college basketball contributor

First began covering college hoops in 2004

Has written for Basketball Prospectus and the Wall Street Journal

Indiana won the second of its five national championship banners in 1953, when coach Branch McCracken guided a team headed by Don Schlundt to a one-point victory over Kansas in the title game. By the time Bob Knight won a fifth banner for the Hoosiers in 1987, the days of McCracken and Schlundt, 34 years earlier, seemed part of a distant past.

It has now been 34 years since that last national title for IU, 19 since the program’s last Final Four and five since the team’s last appearance in the NCAA tournament. The first number represents Indiana’s longest dry spell in the NCAA tournament era, while the other two figures signify the longest droughts in their respective categories for the Hoosiers since the bracket expanded to 64 teams in 1985.

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Quite possibly Indiana would have heard its name called last year had there been a Selection Sunday. What we do know is that the Hoosiers’ 2021 tournament picture has grown significantly more uncertain after two losses to Michigan State and one each to Rutgers and Michigan, all recorded over the past two weeks. IU is 7-11 in the Big Ten and will play its regular-season finale on the road at Purdue.

Indiana hired Archie Miller in 2017 in part due to the excellence his Dayton teams had displayed on defense. Yet defense has been the Hoosiers’ weak point this season, at least in Big Ten play. IU entered its second game against the Spartans ranked No. 12 in the 14-team league for defensive efficiency in conference play. To be sure, part of that has been simple bad luck. Big Ten opponents have, relatively speaking, been on fire from the perimeter when they play Indiana.

Trayce Jackson-Davis is one of the best players in the nation’s strongest conference, but, as chance would have it, the Big Ten is brimming with identities that double as ways to win. Iowa outscores you. Illinois beats you with Ayo Dosunmu‘s heroics when he’s available and with defense when he’s not.

Conversely, Indiana’s identity the past few years has been that of a team that regularly lives life dangerously on the bubble. In 2021, it’s happening again.

Here’s our current projection of the bubble:

Bids from traditional one-bid leagues (minus the Ivy): 20 teams Locks: 26 teams The bubble: 31 teams for 22 available spots Should be in: 9 teams Work to do: 22 teams

ACC | Big 12 | Big East | Big Ten | Pac-12 | SEC | American | Others

ACC

Locks: Virginia, Florida State, Clemson

Should be in

Virginia Tech Hokies

The day before a scheduled home game against Louisville, Virginia Tech announced that the contest was canceled due to a COVID-19 “contract-tracing review” in the Hokies’ program. The news landed at a time when Mike Young’s team was coming off a dominant 38-point win over Wake Forest. Virginia Tech is projected as a No. 8 seed and scheduled to finish the regular season with a road date at NC State. Bubble Watch HQ sends best wishes to the Hokies for good health and a return to action sooner rather than later.

Work to do

Louisville Cardinals

On consecutive Saturdays, Louisville played road games at North Carolina and Duke. In the game against the Tar Heels, Chris Mack’s team was playing its first competitive basketball in 19 days due to a COVID-19 pause. It showed. The Cardinals lost by 45 to UNC, and missing the NCAA tournament entirely suddenly seemed a tangible, if remote, possibility. But then, in the second leg of its Tobacco Road visit, Louisville prevailed over Duke 80-73 in overtime. That gives the Cards a season sweep over the Blue Devils and halts a slide in the projected bracket that landed this team on the No. 10 line. Louisville will close the season at home against Virginia.

North Carolina Tar Heels

Who knew the win at home over Florida State would be even larger for North Carolina than it appeared in real time? Flip that single outcome from a win to a loss and you’re looking at a UNC team that now would be sitting on a three-game losing streak. Instead, Roy Williams’ team is merely coming off a hard-fought 72-70 defeat at Syracuse. The Tar Heels were shown as a No. 10 seed in mock brackets before the trip to upstate New York, so, to be sure, things could become uncomfortable for UNC in the event of a loss in its upcoming home game to a certain storied rival. Has Duke-North Carolina ever been a bubble showdown? It is now.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

If big guys can be Kemba Walker figures too, Moses Wright is a Kemba Walker figure. Over the past five games, Wright has put this Georgia Tech team on his back and said, in effect, they’re going to the tournament. His 29-14 double-double in the Yellow Jackets’ 81-77 overtime win over Duke at home pushed his team across the finish line at the most critical moment of the season. Josh Pastner’s group is seen as a likely No. 12 seed and will now finish the season with a road game at Wake Forest. A win there and one more at the ACC tournament just might close this deal. It has been quite a run for a team that wasn’t even showing up under “next four out” a mere two weeks ago. Wright has been sensational.

Duke Blue Devils

Mike Krzyzewski’s team is ending its regular season with back-to-back Quad 1 win opportunities, and the Blue Devils have already swung and missed, barely, on the first one. Duke took Georgia Tech to overtime in Atlanta before falling short, and now more or less everything rides on their its at North Carolina. Could the Blue Devils conceivably earn an at-large after a loss in Chapel Hill by going all the way to the ACC tournament title game? Anything is possible, but one thing to price in there is that the ACC is not offering its usual menu of “big” neutral-floor wins. It’s not clear that beating Florida State or Virginia in Greensboro would, by itself, get the job done. Better to pair a win like that with one over the Tar Heels at the Dean Dome.

Syracuse Orange

We here at Bubble Watch HQ are going to go out on a limb and offer a view that there really does seem to be something about Syracuse and the bubble. As in, you can’t keep the Orange away from the bubble for long — either on the high side or the low. That’s striking, really, because as a percentage of Division I teams or even as a share of major conference teams, the bubble is really small. Yet here is Jim Boeheim again. Welcome, sir! Syracuse is still seeking its first Quad 1 win (the home victory over North Carolina was Quad 2), and the season finale at home against Clemson might or might not qualify. That will depend on whether the Tigers are above or below No. 30 in the NET. It is perhaps rather an odd way to approach this question of whether Syracuse should be in the NCAA tournament, but here we are. Watch that Clemson ranking.

Big 12

Locks: Baylor, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Texas, Kansas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State

Oklahoma State is shown here as a “lock” to make the tournament. OSU is appealing an NCAA ruling that would prohibit the men’s basketball team from postseason play. As long as that appeal is still under consideration by the NCAA, this season’s team would be allowed to participate in the tournament.

Big East

Locks: Villanova, Creighton

Work to do

Connecticut Huskies

The Big East has struggled to produce solid at-large profiles outside of those belonging to Villanova and Creighton this season. Xavier, Seton Hall and St. John’s all took turns as teams blessed by momentum, only to fall into greater or lesser degrees of bracket peril. But Connecticut might at last be joining the Wildcats and Bluejays as the third program that can begin to make some tentative travel arrangements for the middle of March. The Huskies are carrying a projected No. 11 seed, a number that has improved as James Bouknight has returned to action and as UConn has won four of its past five. The Huskies really love to crash the offensive glass.

Xavier Musketeers

If there’s one team that is really puzzling the committee right now, it might be Xavier. Wins over Oklahoma and Creighton are highly impressive. Yet the victory over the Bluejays came in the midst of a stretch in which the Musketeers have now lost four of their past six. Xavier’s NET ranking topped out in the high 40s even after taking down Creighton, but it will now slide back into the worrisome 50s. Travis Steele’s team was envisioned as a No. 11 seed prior to the loss at Georgetown. Now the Musketeers are hanging by a thread, and the season finale at Marquette takes on added importance.

Seton Hall Pirates

The No. 10 seed Seton Hall carried in bracket projections just two games ago is long gone. The Pirates have dropped road games at Georgetown and Butler, and, at a minimum, Seton Hall is headed for an introduction to the No. 12 line. (Make that a reintroduction. It’s where this team was at the beginning of February.) If up-and-coming teams elsewhere on the bubble keep winning, Seton Hall could be bumped out of the projected field entirely. Kevin Willard’s group has two more regular-season chances to impress the committee. Games remain against UConn in Newark and St. John’s in Queens.

Big Ten

Locks: Michigan, Ohio State, Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, Purdue

Should be in

Maryland Terrapins

With the notable exception of Arkansas, no team in the projected field had a more transformational February than Maryland. In the middle of that month, the Terrapins were cooling their heels in the “first four out” waiting room. Now, after an 18-point win at home over Michigan State, Mark Turgeon’s team is projected as a No. 9 seed and has been granted “should be in” privileges here at Bubble Watch. Maryland’s defense in particular has been outstanding during this five-game win streak, holding opponents to just 0.90 points per possession. Partly that’s the result of two home games against Nebraska, but this D was undeniably impressive against Rutgers and the Spartans as well. The Terps have put the pieces together.

Work to do

Rutgers Scarlet Knights

You don’t often see a team being dismantled by Nebraska in 2020-21, but that’s what took place when Rutgers played a road date against the Cornhuskers. The 72-51 loss means the Scarlet Knights can say goodbye to the No. 8 seed they were carrying in bracket projections prior to the shellacking in Lincoln. Rutgers is now 9-10 in the Big Ten, and falling to Nebraska increases the likelihood that the Knights, with a game still to play at Minnesota, will finish the conference season at 9-11. That need not be a deal-breaker in terms of selection (see Oklahoma, Minnesota and Ohio State in 2019), but at a minimum, the Knights have made this a more interesting situation.

Michigan State Spartans

Winning at home against Indiana (a Quad 2 victory, for those keeping track) holds the Spartans in position as either a “last four in” or “first four out” kind of tournament hopeful. You can find plenty of mock brackets that include Michigan State’s name, but this feels like a situation in which one or even two more wins would be highly advisable for MSU. Tom Izzo’s team is about to play its two-game set against Michigan, and, obviously, one win against the Wolverines would be a great leap forward in the bracket at a crucial moment. There is also the question of what the committee will do with Michigan State’s outlier of a NET ranking. Teams in the high 70s in the NCAA’s metric are usually few and far between in the at-large conversation.

Indiana Hoosiers

The Hoosiers have lost four straight, and this stretch has transformed Indiana’s season. Four games ago, IU was 7-7 in the Big Ten and shown in mock brackets as a No 10 seed. Now, Indiana is “first four out” material trending downward to “next four out.” The final game of the season for the Hoosiers will be at Purdue, and a win there is essential for IU to revive or even begin to revive any realistic hope of a bid. Archie Miller is winless against the Boilermakers as Indiana coach, and, from the Hoosiers’ perspective, it has never been more important for that streak to end.

Pac-12

Locks: USC

Should be in

Colorado Buffaloes

Gaze upon the Buffaloes for one last admiring time, for it’s exceedingly likely that the Buffaloes are about to become a lock. Tad Boyle’s team cooled off UCLA’s win streak with a 70-61 victory in Boulder. A projected No. 7 seed, Colorado now stands at 19-7 with wins over the Bruins and Oregon as well as season sweeps of both USC and Stanford. In the victory over the Bruins, McKinley Wright IV did McKinley Wright IV things. The senior scored 26 points on 16 shots while dishing six assists as CU put the finishing touches on an impressive two-game display of offense at home against UCLA and the Trojans.

UCLA Bruins

Mick Cronin’s team was poised to both boost its projected seed and wrest control of the Pac-12 title race until a nine-point defeat at Colorado brought a four-game winning streak to an end. The conference title will now hinge in part on the upcoming game between the Bruins and Oregon in Eugene, as the two teams are tied in the loss column for the league lead. If UCLA can record victories over the Ducks on the road and USC at Pauley Pavilion, the team can still climb higher in mock brackets than the No. 9 line that it now inhabits.

Oregon Ducks

The Ducks have won eight of their past nine, a late push that has lifted them from a projected No. 10 seed in early February all the way to … the No. 9 line? That seems overdue for a revision upward. Justice from the mock brackets is sure (in the sense that they’ve imitated the NCAA’s committee quite well in the past), but it is also slow. Oregon closes its season with a home game against UCLA and a road date versus Oregon State, and Chris Duarte heads the scouting report for both opponents in boldface type. The senior has scored 41 points in the Ducks’ past three wins.

Work to do

Stanford Cardinal

For the second game in a row, Stanford played without Oscar da Silva. For the second game in a row, the Cardinal lost. Jerod Haase’s team dropped back-to-back home games against Oregon and Oregon State after da Silva suffered a “lower extremity” injury in practice. Stanford is now 10-9 in the Pac-12, and the team began the game against the Beavers shown in mock brackets as one of the first four teams out. This profile still has its crown jewel, a neutral-floor victory over Alabama, but now the Cardinal will in all probability have to win at USC in order to stay in this conversation.

SEC

Locks: Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee

Should be in

Missouri Tigers

Cuonzo Martin’s team hasn’t played a game since its loss at home to Ole Miss back on Feb. 23. This period of inactivity stems from a previously scheduled game against Texas A&M being removed from the Tigers’ slate, and the quiet time has additionally prevented Mizzou from becoming a lock here at Bubble Watch. To recap: Missouri has games remaining at Florida and at home against LSU. The Tigers are projected as a No. 7 seed on the strength of wins over Illinois, Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee and Oregon. It’s an outstanding trophy wall; however, Missouri has now dropped four of its past five.

Florida Gators

Tre Mann appears to be peaking at a good time for Florida. In road wins at Auburn and Kentucky, the sophomore scored 40 points on 25 shots to go along with 21 rebounds. The Gators’ memories of coming back from a COVID-19 pause and losing by 11 at Arkansas have now been superseded by three wins in a row. Mike White’s team has spent all of February alternating between the Nos. 7 and 8 lines in mock brackets, and they will open March with a home game against Missouri and a road date at Tennessee.

LSU Tigers

The probability that LSU will face a top seed in the round of 32 (if the Tigers proceed that far) can now be termed high. Will Wade’s team has settled in comfortably as a No. 8 or No. 9 seed in mock brackets, and absent an SEC tournament win over Alabama or Arkansas, it’s probable LSU will stay right in that seeding neighborhood. Looking ahead, any No. 1 seed with an assistant coach who meets standards of due diligence in scouting is likely to be given pause by LSU. This has been the best offense in SEC play, one that makes its 2s and is incredibly careful with the ball despite playing at an accelerated pace.

American

Locks: Houston

Work to do

Wichita State Shockers

With 40 minutes of basketball, the Shockers launched themselves from perhaps the third or fourth team under “Next four out” to quite possibly the middle of the action in “First four out.” A five-point win at home over a projected No. 2 seed like Houston will have that kind of impact. To be sure, Wichita State will have to work to keep its spot on the bubble. Two games remain to be played against SMU, and Isaac Brown’s team will finish the season with road games at Tulane and Temple. But, at 13-4 and with a win over the Cougars to their credit, the Shockers are now close enough to a bid to taste it. Well done, Coach Brown.

SMU Mustangs

Maybe someday in the far off future the committee will be replaced entirely by a metric that measures how difficult it would be to duplicate any team’s wins and losses given the opponents and venues where that record was compiled. When that happens and “strength of record” (SOR), “wins above bubble” (WAB) or something similar is in the driver’s seat, it will be good news for SMU. In a SOR world, the 11-4 Mustangs would be a No. 10 seed. In the real world, however, Tim Jankovich’s men rank in the high 50s on the NET and inhabit the far outer fringes of the bubble. Keep winning, SMU.

Memphis Tigers

Careful observers of mock brackets have watched with mounting interest these past few weeks as Memphis has climbed steadily closer to the cut line. The Tigers aren’t in the field yet, but they’re close enough to the last at-large bid to merit consideration here at Bubble Watch. With a NET ranking right around No. 60, Penny Hardaway’s team has one beautiful opportunity remaining at Houston. Needless to say, a road win against the Cougars is the richest prize, by far, the American has to offer. Capturing that prize could well lift Memphis up into the “last four in” or “first four out” territories.

Others

Locks: Gonzaga, BYU, Loyola Chicago

Should be in

San Diego State Aztecs

With one regular-season game still to play at UNLV, the Aztecs are about to start their fourth rock-steady week as a projected No. 9 seed. In cases of such consistency across time, perhaps we should listen to the forecasters. SDSU’s profile shows wins over UCLA and Colorado State and two victories against Boise State. Brian Dutcher’s men have forced a high number of turnovers all season long. In two games against this defense, the Broncos gave the ball away no fewer than 31 times in 147 possessions.

Work to do

VCU Rams

Losing on the road to Davidson by eight shouldn’t expose VCU to undue peril. The Rams entered the contest projected as a No. 10 seed, and the Wildcats were ranked No. 80 in the NET. This is a Quad 2 defeat for Mike Rhoades’ group, but it’s conceivable it could shift into Quad 1 territory with a slight uptick in Davidson’s ranking. Throw in the fact that VCU played without leading scorer Bones Hyland, and the likelihood is that the team will drop slightly and not significantly in the mock brackets. Now, the Rams must hope Hyland recovers from his foot injury in time for the Atlantic 10 tournament.

St. Bonaventure Bonnies

Before losing at home to Dayton by three points, St. Bonaventure had risen to the top 30 in the NET rankings and was being shown in mock brackets as a No. 10 seed. The defeat inflicted by the Flyers qualifies as a Quad 3 loss, the first of the season for the Bonnies. Dayton is better than its NET ranking at game time (No. 89) suggested, but, yes, this is the part where Bubble Watch states the obvious for the Bonnies. Recording what was, strictly speaking, a new low in team performance on the first day of March is bad timing. St. Bonaventure has enough cushion to avoid falling out of the projected field, but the importance of avoiding an early exit at the Atlantic 10 tournament has increased significantly.

Drake Bulldogs

Playing without both ShanQuan Hemphill and Roman Penn, the Bulldogs lost 67-61 at Bradley in the season finale. Penn is out for the year, Darian DeVries hopes Hemphill can return in time for the Missouri Valley Conference tournament and Drake’s NCAA tournament hopes are now a bit more tenuous. The loss to the Braves was a Quad 3 defeat, the second of the season for a Bulldogs team that nevertheless compiled a 24-3 record. Drake’s NET ranking was eminently bid-worthy (in the mid-30s) prior to the loss in Peoria, but an early exit by a shorthanded team at the MVC tourney would likely send the team’s projected No. 11 downward (if the loss to Bradley hasn’t already). The best news for the Bulldogs would be Hemphill returning soon and at full speed.

Colorado State Rams

Few teams nationally can match the Rams’ body of work when it comes to consistent and sustained bracket peril. Day in, day out, no matter the spectacular rises or dramatic falls charted by other teams, Niko Medved’s group clocks in as a No. 12 seed in the mock brackets. In the past few weeks, fellow members of the No. 12 club have included upwardly mobile Maryland on the one hand and long-gone Minnesota on the other. But CSU is still here, clinging to one of the last spots in the projected bracket. The Rams are 1-1 on the season against each of the Mountain West’s other three tournament hopefuls: San Diego State, Boise State and Utah State.

Utah State Aggies

Welcome back, Aggies. Bubble Watch has missed you. After Craig Smith’s men lost two games at Boise State by a total of 13 points, the bubble outlook looked grim indeed. Then a funny thing happened. Projected Nos. 11 and 12 seeds started falling out of the bracket, while a few “first four out” and “next four out” programs also encountered difficulties in winning games. Meanwhile, USU was quietly taking care of business in a two-game set at home against Nevada. This combination of faltering competitors and steady performance on Utah State’s part has lifted the Aggies back into the picture. The 50-something NET ranking still looks adequate and the “sweep” of San Diego State (both games were played in Logan, Utah) is still impressive. USU has a chance. Again.

Boise State Broncos

The “Quad 4 loss on the second day of March” thing is not a good look. Boise State was being projected as a No. 11 seed before losing at home by three points to Fresno State. Now BSU’s tournament fate is very much open to question. Prior to the loss, the Broncos seemed as “safe” as a team on the No. 11 line can be, meaning Boise State had appeared in the consensus projected field every day over the course of the past month. That streak in the “fake” bracket will likely end, and the previously top-35 NET ranking will take a hit. BSU is very much in need of a strong showing at the Mountain West tournament.

Saint Louis Billikens

The Billikens have concluded their abbreviated regular season at 13-5, with a NET ranking in the top 50 and profile-enhancing wins over LSU and St. Bonaventure. That body of work is good enough to put SLU right outside the projected field. This also is more or less the same bracket location that Travis Ford’s men have inhabited for the better part of the past month. The consistent, consensus view over that time has been that Saint Louis still needs to play its way into the field. The best way to do that at the Atlantic 10 tournament will be to beat the highest NET-ranked opponent possible, namely St. Bonaventure — the Billikens’ potential foe in the semifinals.

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