#Value Maximization

[marketxcel]

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[philosophybits]

There is no more mistaken path to happiness than worldliness, revelry, high life.

Arthur Schopenhauer, Counsels and Maxims

[max1461]

@gamingavickreyauction Oh, right, here's one trouble I have with expected value maximization:

Say there's a lottery A, and in this lottery I have a 1 - ε chance of getting my right arm ripped off and going blind. This is pretty bad. Say it has utility to me N, where N is a negative number of large magnitude. There is also an ε chance of something really really good happening, something extravagantly good like world peace and I live forever and get everything I want. Let's say the utility of this outcome to me is M. So the expected value of playing this lottery is E(A) = N(1 - ε) + Mε.

Now, N is pretty big, but it's still finite. Getting my right arm ripped off and going blind would pretty thoroughly fuck up my life in every way that I care about. So I really don't want that. But it's not the Christian hell, it's not infinitely bad. Fix ε to be some very small number 0.00000000000001 or whatever. With N and ε fixed, we can always choose some M such that E(A) is greater than zero. In fact, we can choose M so large that E(A) dominates the expected utility of my entire life.

Suppose I was offered a chance to take the lottery A with this ε. Would I do it? I strongly suspect that I would not, no matter how big you make M. You can chalk this up to a failure of reasoning on my part, a failure to truly internalize the bigness of M. But it feels to me like, no matter how big you make M, participating in the lottery would basically just be signing up to get my arm ripped off and go blind. Like that's just definitely what would happen, I would totally not get M. The expected value is a mathematical abstraction, and I'm not signing up to more-or-less certainly get dismembered over an abstraction. I think I would not accept this lottery! And I think probably most people wouldn't.

I believe this goes against one of the Von Neumann–Morgenstern axioms.

[philosophybitmaps]

[theidealistphilosophy]

If we suspect that a man is lying, we should pretend to believe him; for then he becomes bold and assured, lies more vigorously, and is unmasked.

Arthur Schopenhauer, Counsels And Maxims.

[taconafide2]

hsr players will see one passive that caters to a mono element/path team and will think that is the best and only use for an unit

[esspurrr]

BLESS THIS MESS!

[jeniffercheck]

i know many artists have no control over the marketing of their own music but "secret tracks" & vinyl variants piss me the fuck awffff like you're not preserving the art of analog music it's just a cash grab to destroy pockets of tweenagers' parents and every one else who loves your music too much to not participate

[economicsresearch]

page 538 - birdie with a short beak.

I am so mad. And I'm pretty sure that other blogger is to blame.

I think.

[againstpollutions]

just saw a post that said people should be able to eat good food that makes them happy without worrying about nutritional value.......my brother in christ I see where youre coming from but if you don't worry about the nutritional value you're not going to feel happy you're going to feel like shit

[aeide-thea]

the eternal, often-unsuccessful struggle to separate 'hm i personally am not enjoying Thing because it smacks of Unpleasantness to me' from 'i actually dislike Thing because it's Inherently Problematic, amazing how my personal taste is an unfailing radar that way' 😔

[red-dragon-archfiend]

Y'know what I really like Tyrant Dragon and Horus the Black Flame Dragon. When it comes to DM era Dragon-type monsters in Yugioh, Blue-Eyes White Dragon and Red-Eyes Black Dragon dominate the conversation, and that's understandable, as they are the classics, but Tyrant Dragon and Horus have surpassed them in my heart this year as my favorites. Tyrant Dragon was likely designed to represent, y'know The Dragon, as a concept. Several of the Dragon support cards introduced in Legacy of Darkness feature Tyrant Dragon in their artwork, and to me it looks like it was designed to be the boss monster of general Dragon decks. Meanwhile, Horus came out later, but was the centerpiece of the new LV monster gimmick, and outshined the others by actually being kind of good! Horus the Black Flame Dragon LV8 is still an incredibly powerful card, but my favorite thing about it is that it not just enables a very fun aggro-lockdown strategy, it also has some absolutely beautiful artwork. Tyrant Dragon is a classic dragon with all the essential characteristics, which is great, but what's also great is Horus, with its design applying Ancient Egyptian imagery and visual styles to the anatomy of a more European-styled Dragon, and the result looks fantastic. It helps that they're both Fire attribute too!

[squiddity3]

making a poll and signing off like “please if you love christ baby jesus the Lord you HAVE to reblog if you do not reblog this I will DIE actually i am a sociologist and this is for wORK and if you do not reblog I won’t get PAID and my family will STARVE would you LIKE THAT so reblOG for my FAMILY :)”

[switch]

i was watching that forest of illusion video about the harvest moon translation proto and surprised he was talking that directly about his dealings with the previous owner unless they changed their mind about private game hoarding since normally preservationists have to handle collectors with kiddy gloves to avoid alienating them, and then it turns out yeah the guy died suddenly and nobody knows if whoever his collection was legally left to knows what it is or what to do with it.

how do wata game hoarder morons never think about that? it's so short-sighted. i've thought about what's going to happen to my collection when it's not in my hands anymore and the fact that most of it will probably just end up dumped somewhere someday, that's just how it is. that's a huge problem for collectors of any specific items, letalone something with a digital and physical component and the added complexity of making sure the tech isn't ever broken. how often do you see valuable or rare shit donated or tossed out by people who don't know what to do with it and can't be assed? man.

[righteousdelusions]

(this was in my drafts but per my last reblog I have to release it to the world).

like i graduate as a psychologist next week, trust me when i say that i don't really get why people think he's sooo weird when half the shit he says sounds fake af, and also he's literally a creative person whose work is to think creative shit