#Weekly Market Prediction

[vinayakbhatt-blog]

Weekly Market Prediction (Technical + Astrological) – March 10–14, 2025 (IST)

Overview: This report provides a combined technical and astrological outlook for the upcoming week’s financial markets. We cover Gold (XAU/USD), key Forex pairs (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD), Bitcoin (BTC/USD), and the Indian Stock Market (Nifty50). Each section includes technical analysis using RSI, Fibonacci levels, Moving Averages, and Bollinger Bands, alongside astrological insights (Moon transits, Nakshatras, Tithi, planetary aspects like Rahu-Ketu influences, etc.) in Indian Standard Time (IST). We conclude each section with likely market direction and trading strategies. All prices are as of last week’s close (March 7, 2025).

[marketwizards]

An In-Depth Analysis of Bitcoin's Potential Direction for the Week of January 27–31, 2025

Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, finds itself at a pivotal juncture as it navigates through the critical week of January 27–31, 2025. With a mix of bullish momentum, technical uncertainties, and macroeconomic influences at play, traders and investors are closely watching key levels to anticipate the cryptocurrency's next move. This essay provides an in-depth analysis of the factors influencing Bitcoin's potential direction for the week, grounded in technical, on-chain, and market sentiment indicators.

Technical Resistance and Support Levels

Bitcoin's price action this week will revolve around several well-defined technical zones that could either catalyze a rally or trigger a deeper correction. The immediate resistance lies at $105,000, a critical psychological barrier that aligns with historical patterns of heightened trader activity. A sustained breakout above this level could ignite a rally toward $120,000, especially if institutional buying intensifies.

On the downside, Bitcoin faces support zones at $100,000 and $94,665. These levels have acted as safety nets during recent price volatility. Should Bitcoin fail to hold above $100,000, selling pressure could accelerate, testing the $92,000–$95,000 range. A breach below these supports may open the door for a deeper correction to $87,000, in line with Elliott Wave analysis.

Mixed On-Chain and Technical Signals

Bitcoin's technical and on-chain indicators paint a complex picture of the market's sentiment and momentum. On the bullish side, moving averages and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 66.33 indicate ongoing buying momentum. The RSI's proximity to the overbought zone suggests that while there may be short-term corrections, the broader bullish trend remains intact. Similarly, the Stochastic Oscillator, despite being in the overbought zone, signals potential upward continuation before a more substantial reversal.

Conversely, there are cautionary signs. CryptoQuant's Bitcoin Cycle Indicators (IBCI) point to a "distribution phase," which has historically coincided with market peaks. This raises the risk of a near-term pullback. Elliott Wave analysts from LiteFinance predict a possible decline to $89,107, citing corrective wave patterns, further emphasizing the need for vigilance.

Market Sentiment and Liquidation Events

Market sentiment remains volatile, as reflected in over $36 million in liquidations in the past 24 hours. The balanced ratio of long and short positions underscores trader uncertainty about Bitcoin's short-term trajectory. However, on-chain metrics provide a glimmer of hope. The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio for short-term holders, currently at 0.96, suggests Bitcoin is undervalued. This could fuel accumulation among investors, potentially stabilizing prices.

Macro and Institutional Catalysts

Institutional involvement continues to play a decisive role in Bitcoin's price dynamics. Significant inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, such as the $475 million recorded in a single day, highlight growing institutional interest. Additionally, the influx of stablecoin deposits into exchanges signals preparation for potential buy orders, which could provide a buffer against downside pressure.

Seasonal trends, including the Spring Festival effect, have historically been bullish for Bitcoin as retail participation surges during this period. If this trend holds, it may contribute to upward momentum, counteracting bearish signals from technical and on-chain analyses.

Recent Price Action and Key Levels

Bitcoin experienced a sharp sell-off on January 27, briefly dropping below $100,000 for the first time in weeks. Currently, the price is testing the 50-day EMA and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level around $95,000, which historically act as strong support levels. A successful rebound from these levels could reignite bullish momentum, targeting $105,000 and beyond.

Conversely, a failure to hold these supports may trigger a more significant downturn, aligning with Elliott Wave forecasts and distribution phase warnings.

Predicted Direction for the Week

Bitcoin's performance this week is likely to be characterized by short-term volatility, as it oscillates between key support and resistance levels. Several scenarios could unfold:

Bullish Case: A rebound from $95,000–$100,000 could validate upward targets of $105,000 and potentially $120,000, driven by institutional demand and retail participation.

Bearish Case: A breakdown below $95,000 may lead to a retest of $87,000, in line with corrective patterns predicted by Elliott Wave analysis.

Neutral Scenario: Prolonged consolidation within the $95,000–$105,000 range may dominate if neither buyers nor sellers gain decisive control.

Key Levels to Watch

SupportResistance $95,000 (50-day EMA) $105,000 (immediate) $92,000–$94,665 $112,605 (bullish breakout) $87,000 (long-term) $120,000 (psychological)

Conclusion

Bitcoin's direction for the week of January 27–31, 2025, hinges on its ability to navigate critical technical levels amid conflicting signals. While the broader bullish trend appears intact, supported by institutional demand and seasonal factors, bearish warnings from on-chain metrics and technical analyses warrant caution. Traders should prepare for heightened volatility and closely monitor the $95,000–$105,000 range as decisive price thresholds.

By balancing risk and opportunity, market participants can capitalize on potential breakouts while safeguarding against downside risks. Ultimately, Bitcoin's performance this week will reflect the interplay of technical signals, market sentiment, and macroeconomic forces, setting the stage for its next major move.

[parkavifinance]

🎯 Market Outlook: November’s 4th Week Analysis & Nifty Prediction | Parkavi Finance

@ParkaviFinance

Welcome to Parkavi Finance Weekly Market Overview!

In this episode, Tamilini and Akshita bring you the latest updates on the Indian Stock Market and global markets. This week, we cover:

The impact of state elections

FII and DII fund flows

Sectoral performance

Key corporate news

We also provide insights into the upcoming events that could shape the markets next week. Stay tuned for technical analysis on Nifty's recovery and much more!

Topics Covered:

📊 Weekly Market Performance

📉 Volatility Drivers

💰 Fund Flows and Sectoral Performance

📅 Key Events for the Coming Week

🏢 Corporate News Highlights

🌐 Domestic and Global Updates

📈 Technical Insights – Nifty’s Recovery

📌 Call to Action:

👉 Subscribe to Parkavi Finance on YouTube for weekly updates and expert insights!

👍 Like, share, and comment on the video to support our channel.

📱 Follow us on Twitter, Telegram, Instagram, and Facebook for daily updates.

🎥 Watch Now:

Watch in English 👉 https://youtu.be/89TalmzF89Y

Watch in Tamil 👉  https://youtu.be/-c3h_yd1Izs

📖 Read More:

Read in Tamil 👉 https://tamilparkavifinance.blogspot.com/2024/11/tamil-market-overview-how-elections-and.html

Read in English 👉 https://www.parkavifinance.com/2024/11/weekly-market-insights-key-highlights.html

#MarketsThisWeek #WeeklyWrap #ParkaviFinance #WeeklyMarketOverview #IndianStockMarket #SensexAndNifty #FIIFundFlows #DIIFundFlows #SectoralPerformance #CorporateNews #StateElectionsImpact #CrudeOilPrices #NiftyTechnicalAnalysis #WeeklyStockMarketOutlook #StockMarketPredictionsNextWeek #GlobalMarketsWeeklyUpdate #StockMarketPredictions #NiftyAndSensexAnalysis #IndianMarketsWeeklyTrends #GlobalStockMarketInsights #CrudeOilMarketUpdate

[seoltzuki]

Delivery!

momo x fem reader

fluff

Weekly Momo deliveries and you just want a little sweet treat!

a/n: based from a true story (I didn’t kiss the delivery person though, but we are very good friends now) wait kiss? oops spoiler! also this used to be on my ao3

hbd momo ily!

Every Monday, you wait for the knock on your door, signaling the arrival of your weekly supply of fresh fruits and vegetables from the local farmers market. You’d heard about the service from Tzuyu, who swore by the convenience and quality.

Before your first delivery, you had already made a little request in the online order form: “send a sweet treat, surprise me.” It was a tiny change to break up your predictable and mundane schedule.

Just a little something new!

Your first meeting with Momo, the delivery person, was something. You opened the door, eyes still crusty from sleep, and there she was: rolled-up sleeves, a half-up hairdo, and cute glasses framing her face.

“Oh, hey! Didn’t expect—uh, someone like y-”

She flashed a smile that could rival the sun. “Hi! I’m Momo! Hope the surprise is a good one!” she said, raising the bag higher to your face, her muscles working and showing.

You caught a glimpse in the bag: a pack of gummies poking out the top. “This is exactly what I needed. Thank you so much!”

Momo chuckled and shrugged. “Glad you like it! I’ll be sure to keep them coming. Have a nice day!”

With that, she left, but you couldn’t stop smiling. From that Monday on, your exchanges became something you looked forward to. Momo started adding a different treat each time, a little touch of sweet mixed into your groceries.

Mondays slowly turned into mini-breaks from life’s usual grind, and Momo would show up each week with her easygoing charm. You’d chat about the weather, exchange stories from your week, and laugh over the oddities that ended up in the produce bag. Once, Momo brought you an alien-looking fruit neither of you could identify, sparking a lively debate over how one might even begin to eat it.

One Monday, Momo didn’t show up. Instead, her replacement named Jihyo knocked on your door. And of course you asked,

“Momo doing okay?”

“She’s fine, just a bit under the weather,” Jihyo replied with a smile. “But she wanted to make sure I didn’t skip your sweet.” She handed over your bag, complete with a box of chocolates and a handwritten note: “Caught a cold. I’m fine—don’t worry. And here’s the weekly treat ;)”

In that moment, you realized it wasn’t just about the fruits and sweets anymore—it was more. The connection Momo had brought to each delivery, her attention, her care...

Her, her, her.

Each Monday after that was a little brighter. One week, Momo handed you a box of caramels, a playful gleam in her eye. “Going for extra sugar today. Hope you’re up for it.”

You giggled, “I trust your judgment. You're somehow always right.”

Momo grinned. “Hey, maybe I have a hidden talent for matching snacks to people’s moods. Or just giving the right treat to the prettiest person I know.”

Your small talk gradually gave way to deeper conversations. She’d share stories from the market—the quirky customers, the hectic mornings, the occasional disasters with fresh produce. You found yourself opening up too, laughing about the oddest things in your week, discussing favorite candies and ridiculous fruit facts.

One rainy Monday, she handed over the bag with a selection of comfort sweets: chocolates, marshmallows, the works. “Rainy days call for the good stuff,” she said simply, and you couldn’t help but feel seen.

Loved, maybe?

Another Monday, Momo told you about a local festival coming up. “They’ve got some amazing desserts there. Maybe you’d want to check it out?”

It sounded like a nice change of pace. So of course you agreed.

And of course you'd say yes to the cutest girl you've ever met.

When the day of the festival came, you ended up meeting Momo there, navigating the crowded stalls and sampling all the treats. At one point, she turned to you. “You know, it feels like I’ve known you forever, and it’s only been, what, a few months?”

You nodded. “Honestly, Mondays have started feeling like a whole separate world. All because of you Momo, thank you.” you whispered, linking your pinky with hers.

You didn't miss the way she blushed.

In the weeks that followed, you found yourself waiting eagerly for those Monday and the possibility of other shared moments beyond the doorstep. Then, one sunny Monday, Momo brought you a small potted plant.

“I thought your place could use a touch of green. Plus, plants are like natural mood boosters, right?”

Touched, you accepted the gift, realizing it was more than just a plant—it symbolized something more.

One day, as you sat together on your cozy couch, Momo turned to you with a soft smile. “You know, you’ve made my Mondays something to look forward to. It’s not just about the deliveries—it’s about you.”

You felt a flutter in your chest and met Momo's gaze. She looked so sickeningly cute, her glasses slightly crooked, her cheeks flushed red and puffed up.

The words hung in the air with hearts beating faster and butterflies flying harder.

Before you could respond, Momo’s hand gently cupped your cheek, her warm fingers brushing against your skin, sending a shiver down your spine. She leaned in slowly, her lips meeting yours—soft, warm, tentative at first, then pressing with a little more certainty. The gentle pressure of her mouth against yours deepened as you both leaned closer, letting the moment linger.

When she pulled back, Momo gave you a small, shy smile, her nose scrunching up in that familiar way. “I really like you, Y/N.”

Her other hand slipped to the back of your neck, her fingertips tracing lightly along your skin, pulling you closer as her lips found yours again. This kiss was warm, unhurried.

“I like you so much.”

Another kiss.

Mondays would then never be the same, they’d be even better.

[david-talks-sw]

The biggest problem in "The Acolyte"

I think I've given this show a fair shake. There are parts in it that I really like, and I think this sits in 3rd/4th place in my ranking of favourite Disney - Star Wars shows.

But here's the thing. It felt underwhelming. The only time I was genuinely excited was during the fight scenes, any of them.

But when I think about the events that take place in the show... they're not so bad! There's nothing really lore-breaking, I like flawed characters doing their best. It's okay!

So why was I almost always deadpan, while watching it?

Structure.

The show doesn't have the same issue as other Disney Plus series, wherein they treat it as a 10-hour movie and thus lose all momentum every time. Headland knows how to raise the stakes properly... but unfortunately, the result is the same!

Because this series was structured and marketed as if it was some kind of investigative thriller, a noir movie about Jedi being murdered and needing to find the killer. And when you look at the events, and at the story it's telling... it really isn't that.

So when you're trying to make these twists... they're all predictable.

How could Osha have killed Indara when she's working as a meknik-- she has a twin.

But who could the Sith in the mask possibly be-- iiiit's Qimir, y'know, the guy who's literally quoting the Sith code and is trying his hardest to seem harmless.

Why is Mae going around killing these Jedi-- they had it coming, they likely wronged her in a way that was unintended and now she's in pain because of it.

What's the mystery behind the twins-- they weren't conceived biologically, they were created using the Force. They're Anakin 1.0.

Were the witches really killed by the fire? What did we miss, why are the Jedi so guilt-ridden over it-- the other side of the story, showing the Jedi probably killing them all through some big well-intentioned-but-misled accident that could've been avoided, which the Jedi now feel guilty over and try to cover up.

Osha seems to be fine with the Jedi arresting her sister-- her heartlessness makes her the perfect Sith, by the end of the Season, she'll be an apprentice and Mae will be on the good side.

Who is Qimir's former teacher-- Vernestra. His scars look like they come from a lightsaber whip.

Is Qimir the Sith master-- probably not, just an apprentice, a self-proclaimed non-Bane-lineage Sith, or an acolyte himself.

Will Sol survive the show-- no, he's gonna die, because of course he is, by Episode I, the Sith have been thought to be extinct for a millenia.

If you're a casual viewer, maybe these wouldn't be as obvious. But if you're a fan, it's like it's written on a billboard. And like, clearly Leslye Headland knew that this would be the case:

"I think a good twist is not about hiding everything from the audience and then throwing it on them like, 'Hey, this is what you didn't see! We hid it so well that you didn't see this!'" says Headland. "I think a good twist is telegraphing what's going to happen, and then once it does, executing it without an ounce of pity or sentimentality."" - Leslye Headland, Entertainment Weekly, 2024

But here's the thing.

You can't make an audience feel as if the stakes have been raised, when we can tell where this is all going.

Because then we're not watching, we're waiting for what will inevitably happen to finally occur. If most of these "mysteries" had been structured as simple plot points in a more straight-forward story about...

Two sisters trying to get back to each other after an incident in their lives caused by the Jedi.

The Jedi Master coming to terms with the fact that his flawed decisions led to tragic consequences.

A Sith Lord trying to appropriate the sisters' powers for himself.

... then I think that I wouldn't feel as underwhelmed.

Instead it's a murder mystery, and we already know the murderer, what motivates said murderer, how said murderer was wronged, etc... and they're feeding us the information by the breadcrumb to build up to these twists, but we can basically guess what these twists are.

Don't treat obvious plot points like a secret. You can get away with it a couple of times, but not with every single one of them. C'mon.

ADDENDUM:

[darkmaga-returns]

by Tyler Durden

Former Wall Street money manager Ed Dowd is a skillful financial analyst who said in May the economy was skidding. Now, Dowd predicts the economy is poised to “roll over” and soon.

Why is the Fed cutting rates with a record high DOW? Maybe they see the same thing he does. Dowd explains, “Real weekly wage growth was minus 2% going into the election. It is also interesting to know that minus 2% number of wage growth was also in 1980 when Ronald Reagan won in a landslide and also in 1992 when Bill Clinton won in a landslide…"

"I have never seen such blatant manipulation of government statistics.

There is government spending and government hiring to paper over what is truly a bad economy for the average man. When I was asked prior to the election who do you think will win the election, I said Trump has already won, according to the economic statistics. That’s why he won. Bobby Kennedy helped along with Elon Musk, Joe Rogan, lots of people switching and what have you. What really got Trump in was the economy, the real economy, not the stock market.

It was not the ‘everything is hunky-dory’ pablum from the mainstream media.

The real economy has been rolling over, and we are just waiting for the financial markets to figure this out.

When they do, Trump is going to inherit a turd of a financial market crisis.

Government statistics will be updated, and it will show we started a recession sometime this year…

The incoming Trump Administration has to get out in front of the narrative. This was already baked into the cake. They just got handed fraudulent books. So, they are basically going to get blamed for what is coming.

They have to get in front of the narrative and talk about what they were handed. They need to talk about how the stock market is not a real indicator of economic health like it was before the days of raw manipulation.”

[ZH: We have been endlessly reminding readers for the last six months that the 'always positive' macro headlines that appear every day after almost ubiquitously revised down in later months, hiding the reality that set the scene for Trump's almost unprecedented victory in the election - despite the endless charade promoted by legacy media that 'everything was awesome', it clearly wasn't (and isn't) and the rug-pull is coming.]

[mariacallous]

Offal, aka organ meats, are about to make a comeback. Yes, I predict that brains, livers, spleens, tongues and testicles will feature heavily on the menus of Israel’s (and the diaspora’s Jewish/Israeli-style) hottest eateries by this time next year — if they aren’t already. Why? Because young chefs are increasingly inspired by traditional Jewish dishes, driving a return-to-roots style of cooking. And these old-school classics are notably innard-heavy.

Offal is an oxymoron; it’s both a poor-person food, which is why it was so popular in the shtetl, and a celebratory food, eaten on Shabbat and festivals. Many Sephardic cultures consider it a delicacy. Read on and decide for yourself.

Let’s start with an old Ashkenazi classic: chopped liver. While for me, it will always be in style, many of my contemporaries don’t feel the same. Luckily, young Jewish chefs have already set their sights on it, and may well have the power to convert millennial diners. Take Anthony Rose’s recipe in “The Last Schmaltz,” which sears the livers, then deglazes the pan with arak before blending, serving the chopped liver with thyme-scented caramelized onions.

Another well-known offal dish is the Jerusalem mixed grill. Made with chicken giblets and lamb parts, and seasoned with onion, garlic, black pepper, cumin, turmeric and coriander, this classic street food is believed to have originated sometime between 1960-1970 at one of two (now feuding) restaurants in Jerusalem’s Machaneh Yehuda Market. While the Jerusalem grill is far younger than most Jewish offal dishes, it originated in a similar way: Butchers had a surplus of unwanted offal so they sold it off cheaply, then some savvy chefs turned the offal into a desirable dish. The mixed grill was one of the first offal dishes to receive multiple modern makeovers. At his restaurant Rovi, Yotam Ottolenghi adds baharat onions and pickles, while Michael Solomonov included a Jerusalem grill-Southern dirty rice hybrid in “Israeli Soul.“

Of course, this is not the first dish based around grilled offal; Tunisian Jews liked to throw a selection of lamb or veal innards onto the grill, which they called mechoui d’abats, and Baghdadi Jews sought a similar smokiness, which they achieved by cooking chicken livers on the tandoor.

Roman Jews preferred their offal battered and fried, rather than grilled. Few know that their famed carciofi alla giudia (deep-fried artichokes) was often served alongside fried sweetbreads, livers, and — most notably — brains. North Africa’s Sephardi communities loved their brains, too, commonly serving them in an omelet called a meguina or menina on festive occasions. Meir Adoni referenced this love in his brain fricassee — a North African-French fusion dish of veal brains inside a croissant with harissa and preserved lemon — at his New York restaurant Nur.

Offal was also commonly used to add a depth of flavor to a soup or stew. Yemenite Jews — one of the few communities who continue to cook traditional offal dishes — make a soup with bulls’ penis and cows’ udders, while Eastern European Jews, particularly of Polish descent, continue to add kishke  — a sausage made of stuffed beef intestine — to their weekly Shabbat cholent. A slow-cooked stew called akod is one of the better-known dishes of Tunisian Jewish cuisine, where tripe flavored with cumin, garlic, harissa and tomato paste is the star of the show. Moroccan Jews eat a similar dish on Passover, which ditches the tomato paste but adds liver, heart, and beef dumplings.

Admittedly, there are some offal-based dishes that may find it trickier to stage a comeback. Ptcha – an aspic that reached its height of popularity in shtetl-era Ashkenazi communities — is arguably top of the list. However, it’s not without hope; ptcha was actually born in Turkey in the 14th century as a peasant soup made with lamb’s feet, served hot. This, I’d wager, is a more palatable gateway (it’s basically bone broth) to the Eastern European version, which opts for calves’ feet and allows the soup to cool and set into a jelly, thanks to the gelatin in the hooves.

It only takes one dish to change your view of offal from weird and unappetizing to tasty and versatile. If livers, brains and tripe were good enough for our ancestors, not to mention famed chefs, who are we to turn up our noses? Happy eating!

[clarisse0o]

The Mayor - Chapter 56

Lucy Bronze x Ona Batlle

Alternate Universe: Mayor and Architect

Words: 2000

Masterlist

———————————————————————

Sitting at the table in Lucy’s spacious open-plan kitchen, with a plate of risotto in front of me, I listened absentmindedly to the conversation. Hugo was negotiating with his mother about an upcoming ski trip with his friends, presenting an impressively persuasive argument to win Lucy over, which amused me.

"Have you considered becoming a lawyer one day?" I remarked.

He smiled at my comment, while his brother Jules, seated across from me, shot me one of his trademark icy glares.

It had been five months since Lucy broke the news to the twins, not long after we had discussed it. I had been impressed by her courage to address it so quickly. Of course, it was a complicated transition. While the boys had known their parents were divorcing for some time, learning that their mother was in a relationship with another person—especially a woman—was something entirely different.

As I had warned Lucy, one could never predict individual reactions. Hugo had been shocked but adapted relatively quickly once the initial surprise wore off. Jules, on the other hand, had a much harsher reaction, vehemently opposing the relationship. He yelled at Lucy, asking how she could do this to him, accusing her of being the "worst mother," and declaring that he never wanted to see me again—“that pathetic girl who has completely derailed your sense of reason!” he called me. He even threatened never to speak to her again if she continued seeing me. This was the same Jules who had once spent weeks with me during an internship and adored me.

Saying that Lucy returned devastated to my apartment would be an understatement. My arms and comforting words consoled her over the following days. Despite everything, she never faltered or doubted our relationship, which was a tremendous relief for me. Over time, things improved, although "improved" was still a relative term. Lucy’s ex-husband, Paul, had stepped in as a mediator, managing to ease the tension with Jules to some degree. Lucy had told Paul first, before the twins. Their marriage had been platonic for years, so he took the news without issue, hardly surprised, as he had noticed her behavior when she talked about me or worked alongside me. I was thrilled by this revelation and loved teasing her about it.

The boys now alternated weekly between staying with their mother and father. I alternated too, splitting my time between Lucy’s house and my own apartment. At 35, I was experiencing the joys of shared living arrangements.

For four months, Jules had outright refused to see me, and I respected his wishes. Recently, he had begrudgingly allowed me to join them for occasional dinners. Even so, the atmosphere was strained by Jules' toxic moods. I did my best to be kind and understanding, ignoring his sharp remarks when he wasn’t completely ignoring me: "It won’t last," "I hate you," "What have you done to my mother," and so on. I had tried to open a dialogue with him multiple times, but he remained unapproachable. Lucy walked a fine line between reprimanding him and trying to remain empathetic and attentive. She was walking on eggshells.

"Composing" was the word that best described my life at the moment. Composing with Jules, the living arrangement, not being able to live with Lucy, and the many challenges. Still, the love I felt helped me stay positive, even when the situation took a toll on me.

Lucy’s voice cut through my thoughts. 

"Okay, Hugo, you can go! But let me warn you: you’re not leaving the house this weekend—you’re studying for your mock exams!"

Hugo grinned broadly, clearly pleased with his mother’s answer. Jules chimed in:

"Hey! Don’t forget we’re going to the Christmas market opening tomorrow with you, Mom!"

Indeed, Lucy was set to inaugurate the large Christmas market the next evening, Friday. The event was a town highlight with music, mulled wine, and festive dishes.

"Don’t worry; I haven’t forgotten, considering how much energy it’s taken to organize it!" Lucy replied with a wink.

"Are you coming with us, Ona?" Hugo asked kindly from his seat to my right.

Jules immediately jumped in. 

"There’s no way she’s coming! If she comes, I won’t!"

His glare was sharp as ever.   What a brat,   I thought to myself, holding his gaze in silence. Lucy sighed, exasperated, addressing her son:

"Lower your voice, now! And stop saying 'she'—Ona is right in front of you. Show some respect, Jules!"

"Oh, please, she’s already imposing at dinner; that’s enough! I don’t want her there!"

"God, Jules, give it a rest! You’re killing the mood!" Hugo interjected, clearly fed up.

I decided to speak, my tone unusually firm. 

"Don’t worry, Jules. I wasn’t planning on coming with you anyway. I have no interest in ruining my Friday night dealing with your attitude!"

For the first time, I addressed him sharply. He blinked, visibly taken aback. I had always been gentle with him. That night, though, I was just tired—of work, of this situation, of Jules. Tonight wasn’t the night to push me. Lucy seemed startled by my reaction, unsure of how to respond. Thankfully, the house phone rang at that moment. Jules used the opportunity to slip away, heading to the phone.

"Saved by the bell," I muttered, grabbing the fruit basket.

Hugo quickly lightened the mood with one of his stories. Jules eventually returned, explaining that he needed to visit a neighbor to retrieve his agenda.

Later, as we cleared the table, Hugo leaned in and whispered:

"You can come with us, you know."

I smiled at him. He was genuinely sweet.

"Thank you, Hugo, that’s very kind of you. But I’ve already made plans to go with my friend Alexia."

In truth, I hadn’t considered attending with Lucy this year, regretfully. There was Jules to consider, and Lucy was going in her role as mayor. I couldn’t imagine being by her side amidst the crowds, journalists, and local dignitaries.

After the dishes were done, I stepped outside for a cigarette. Lucy soon joined me.

"Are you okay?" she asked softly.

"I’m fine," I replied, my tone weary. She raised her eyebrows.

"Are you sure?"

"Just tired today, Lucy," I admitted.

"I could tell, with how you reacted. But look, it’s getting better... we’re all at the same table," she said, brushing my cheek tenderly.

"Yes, a victory! Maybe in a year, you can touch my cheek without looking over your shoulder, and who knows, in ten years, we might even live together!" I quipped sarcastically.

Lucy bit her lip, lowering her gaze, clearly hurt by my comment.

"What do you want me to do? How should I handle this? If I push too hard, he’ll shut down completely."

I shrugged. "He’s playing this situation perfectly, either way. I’m just on edge tonight; it’ll be fine," I said, trying to reassure her.

"Do you want me to come over tonight?" she asked.

Lucy often snuck away to my place for the night during the weeks the boys were with her, returning early in the morning. Breakfasts with the step-sons weren’t on the table yet.

"No, I have a ton of work," I replied truthfully. She pouted.

Her phone rang again—of course, it was one of those nights. She frowned.

"I need to take this—it’s about tomorrow. I’ll be back soon!" She kissed me quickly before heading inside.

I stayed outside for a while, lost in thought under the stars, until I heard footsteps. Jules was returning from his errand, walking past me without a glance, pretending I didn’t exist. I shook my head.

"What a shame it’s come to this," I murmured.

“What?” he threw at me offhandedly.  

“Jules! I’m the same person you talked to, laughed with, for weeks during your internship!”  

My tone was sharp and energetic.  

“Yes, but since then, you slept with my mother!”  

He aimed to throw me off balance with his brazen words.  

“Classy, Jules. I expected better from you! Stop acting like a little Twat !”  

Once again, my unusually direct tone caught him off guard.  

“Oh, so now I’m a little twat ? Mom’s going to love hearing that!”  

I sighed deeply.  

“I’ve really tried everything with you, Jules—compassion, kindness. I get it, none of this is easy. But I am not your enemy, Jules, and you’re pushing me to my limits…”  

He rolled his eyes, a nasty smirk playing on his lips.  

I stepped closer, leaving barely any space between us.  

“Listen to me carefully; I’ll only say this once, so it gets etched into your stubborn little head. Your behavior is ruining our lives. I know you’re smart enough to see it. You might be fine with wrecking mine—I guess that even gives you some satisfaction. But have you thought about your mom? Just for a second? About how your selfish attitude affects her? I love her, Jules. And understand this: nothing you do, no amount of your bratty behavior, will make me give up on her. Nothing. So go ahead, exhaust yourself trying to make all our lives miserable if that’s what entertains you!”  

I never broke eye contact, delivering my words calmly but with firmness, cutting through like a knife.  

He didn’t reply. Not a single word.  

I turned on my heel and walked inside, closing the door behind me. I listened as he stomped away into the garden. I sighed again. I knew I’d gone far, but it was necessary. That was the breaking point.  

I knew this kid; his behavior turned my stomach inside out.  

I found Lucy in the living room, finishing up a phone call.  

“I’m sorry, I need to rush to the prefecture—some urgent issue about tomorrow’s security! Honestly, they’re exhausting me!” she said, exasperated.  

I didn’t want to bring up what had just happened with Jules. She was in a hurry, and it wasn’t the time to tell her I’d called her son a brat.  

“I was just about to head out too!”  

“See you tomorrow?” she asked as she grabbed her bag.  

“Yes, we’ll see each other tomorrow,” I replied quickly before adding with a teasing smile, “I know how it is—Madame Mayor amidst her constituents and journalists for the Christmas market inauguration…”  

She pulled me close, pushing me into a dimly lit back room, and kissed me deeply. My body warmed instantly from her touch, her lips, her tongue. She rested her forehead against mine, her blue eyes locked on me, and whispered a tender “I love you…”  

I kissed her back, murmuring the same words into her ear before breaking away from her embrace.  

She caught my hand as I started to leave. “We’ll get through this…”  

“We’ll get through this…”  

It was something we told each other often, words that gave us strength.  

As I headed to my car, I noticed Jules sitting in the far corner of the garden. I wondered what state he was in and what he might tell Lucy after our confrontation.  

[spacetimewithstuartgary]

New SpaceTime out Wednesday

SpaceTime 20250326 Series 28 Episode 37

New exoplanet candidate discovery

Astronomers have located a potential new exoplanet. The new planetary candidate catalogued as TOI-2818C is estimated to be 10-16 times the size of Earth, with an orbital period less than 16 Earth days. 

New study claims Dark Energy could evolve over cosmic time

New data suggests that the mysterious force known as Dark Energy may be evolving -- changing how it will affect the ultimate fate of the universe.

Claims the Moon’s magnetic field lasted longer than expected

New data released by Beijing from its Chang'e-6 sample return mission to the far side of the Moon has shown evidence of what appears to have been a significant resurgence in the Moon's magnetic field some 2.8 billion years ago.

The Science Report

Study warns that sugary drinks may increase a women's risk of mouth cancer.

A new study claims agricultural drought is likely to become harder to predict as the world heats up.

Less than half of claims about ADHD symptoms in popular TikTok videos align with clinical standards.

Alex on Tech next generation TVs.

SpaceTime covers the latest news in astronomy & space sciences.

The show is available every Monday, Wednesday and Friday through Apple Podcasts (itunes), Stitcher, Google Podcast, Pocketcasts, SoundCloud, Bitez.com, YouTube, your favourite podcast download provider, and from www.spacetimewithstuartgary.com

SpaceTime is also broadcast through the National Science Foundation on Science Zone Radio and on both i-heart Radio and Tune-In Radio.

SpaceTime daily news blog: http://spacetimewithstuartgary.tumblr.com/

SpaceTime facebook: www.facebook.com/spacetimewithstuartgary

SpaceTime Instagram @spacetimewithstuartgary

SpaceTime twitter feed @stuartgary

SpaceTime YouTube: @SpaceTimewithStuartGary

SpaceTime -- A brief history

SpaceTime is Australia’s most popular and respected astronomy and space science news program – averaging over two million downloads every year. We’re also number five in the United States.  The show reports on the latest stories and discoveries making news in astronomy, space flight, and science.  SpaceTime features weekly interviews with leading Australian scientists about their research.  The show began life in 1995 as ‘StarStuff’ on the Australian Broadcasting Corporation’s (ABC) NewsRadio network.  Award winning investigative reporter Stuart Gary created the program during more than fifteen years as NewsRadio’s evening anchor and Science Editor.  Gary’s always loved science. He studied astronomy at university and was invited to undertake a PHD in astrophysics, but instead focused on his career in journalism and radio broadcasting. Gary’s radio career stretches back some 34 years including 26 at the ABC. He worked as an announcer and music DJ in commercial radio, before becoming a journalist and eventually joining ABC News and Current Affairs. He was part of the team that set up ABC NewsRadio and became one of its first on air presenters. When asked to put his science background to use, Gary developed StarStuff which he wrote, produced and hosted, consistently achieving 9 per cent of the national Australian radio audience based on the ABC’s Nielsen ratings survey figures for the five major Australian metro markets: Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth. That compares to the ABC’s overall radio listenership of just 5.6 per cent. The StarStuff podcast was published on line by ABC Science -- achieving over 1.3 million downloads annually.  However, after some 20 years, the show finally wrapped up in December 2015 following ABC funding cuts, and a redirection of available finances to increase sports and horse racing coverage.  Rather than continue with the ABC, Gary resigned so that he could keep the show going independently.  StarStuff was rebranded as “SpaceTime”, with the first episode being broadcast in February 2016.  Over the years, SpaceTime has grown, more than doubling its former ABC audience numbers and expanding to include new segments such as the Science Report -- which provides a wrap of general science news, weekly skeptical science features, special reports looking at the latest computer and technology news, and Skywatch – which provides a monthly guide to the night skies. The show is published three times weekly (every Monday, Wednesday and Friday) and available from the United States National Science Foundation on Science Zone Radio, and through both i-heart Radio and Tune-In Radio.

[lorwolfofficial]

We're back! Apologies for the radio silence over the past few months, we're pleased to say that JimJim's arm has been healing well and is almost entirely recovered. Our team has been hard at work building, testing, and creating art assets for the achievement system - and we're pleased to announce that it will be launching today as soon as the scheduled maintenance has concluded!

We've also taken this time to go back and address some of the bugs and issues that have been reported. Recent code changes have been recorded in the latest Patch Notes 1.1.6.

It's finally ready; achievements have just landed in the world of Loria! Players can track their progress as they complete goals and unlock achievement-exclusive rewards through everyday, regular gameplay. Navigate to the Achievements page from the Den menu:

Achievements have been divided into four subcategories - General, Gameplay, Professions, and Den. If you have an achievement reward available to claim, it will display as a small red dot next to the tab name.

General: For completion of general gameplay tasks such as achievements completed, weekly activities completed, etc.

Starter: A category to help onboard new players to the game. Apparel items awarded in this category are not soulbound, and can also be purchased from Marvin's Mole Market.

Gameplay: Includes Arena, Campaign, Gauntlet, and Pageant tasks and awards several different exclusive apparel sets and recipes.

Professions: Covers every profession and awards weekly event vouchers.

Den: A category for miscellaneous tasks such as inventory management, wolf breeding, etc.

Completing an achievement may grant any of the following: Achievement points, Moonstones, Pebbles, Forum titles, Companions, apparel items, food, materials, and more. (As a side note, this update has almost doubled the total number of official game apparel!) Once an achievement has been claimed, it will be sent to the player via Notifications.

Achievement points and titles will display below a player's profile within the Forums. Titles can be set from the Account Settings page.

Some final notes:

Due to this being the very first iteration of Achievements, the majority of player progress made prior to this update can not be backdated. Achievements such as profession and companion level will be updated automatically by the system. Moving forward, players should expect some adjustments as we continuously work to ensure a fair and rewarding experience. We've set the rewards and requirements according to the predicted data of an average player who logs in over the course of a year, but this may change as more players engage with the feature and provide feedback. Some achievements will be met relatively quickly, while others are to be earned over paced regular gameplay. We plan to add even more achievements and rewards as the site and its features grow to ensure the average player always has something to work towards. We welcome any and all gameplay suggestions from our community to be posted in the Suggestions Forum.

New Recipe Search and Mining Ore

A new search, sort, and pager feature have been added to both the Crafting and Cooking professions. Now, players can easily search and sort through their ever-expanding list of recipes without having to scroll through the entire page.

It's time to collect all the shinies - precious gemstones can now be mined throughout the caves of Loria! Players can now rarely find Sapphire, Ruby, Amethyst, Citrine, and Emerald gems. As of now, these gems can be used to craft the exclusive Achievement daggers. We plan to release many new crafting recipes and apparel items featuring these rare gems.

New Breed Sneak Peak

Shown above are a couple sketch ideas for Lorwolf's upcoming wolf breed - Direwolves! We're aiming for this breed to be big, bulky, and powerful; with massive fangs and a short bob-tail. It will be similar to lynx cats in appearance and will have a special affinity for nature and ancient magic.

In other news, our annual Black Friday sale returns next week; more info about that will be coming soon! Thank you for sticking with us, especially when development may seem slower than usual. Our small yet passionate development team is committed to bringing the best experience to our players. We are so proud of how far we've come, and we want to thank you for your continued patience.

Moonsblessings, Alaunis, JimJim, and Swell

[artisanalgoats]

By Yair Rosenberg

A politician designed in a lab to help Democrats win pivotal Rust Belt swing states would probably look a lot like Josh Shapiro. In 2016, when Donald Trump won Pennsylvania by less than 1 percent of the vote, Shapiro was elected attorney general by nearly 3 percent. In 2020, when Joe Biden won the state by one point, Shapiro won reelection by more than four points. And in 2022, the Democrat took the governorship by a whopping 15 percent.

Today, Shapiro’s favorability in Pennsylvania stands at a commanding 61 percent, far outstripping Kamala Harris’s 49 percent in the state. Leaks from the Republican camp suggest that party strategists see the governor as one of their most formidable potential adversaries in a presidential campaign. There’s just one problem.

"He’s Jewish," CNN’s John King noted last week, so "there could be some risk in putting him on the ticket." In fact, Shapiro might be the most visibly Jewish elected official in America: He keeps kosher, has weekly Shabbat dinner with his family, and even quotes Jewish scripture in his political speeches. The sole race he ever lost was for student-body president at his Jewish day school.

Events have borne out King’s concern. Today, Shapiro is the only veep contender subject to an organized campaign to capsize his prospective nomination. Put together by hard-left congressional staffers and members of Democratic Socialists of America, among others, the push is ostensibly about Shapiro’s support for Israel. "Tell Kamala and the Democrats now," reads the site NoGenocideJosh.com, "say no to Genocide Josh Shapiro for Vice President."

"I personally believe Benjamin Netanyahu is one of the worst leaders of all time," Shapiro told reporters in January, months before Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer called for the Israeli leader to resign. At the time, Shapiro also pressed for an "immediate two-state solution," something Netanyahu and his hard-right government stridently oppose. The anti-Shapiro campaign ignores these remarks but makes much of the governor’s comparison of campus Gaza protesters to "people dressed up in KKK outfits." When he said that in an interview, however, Shapiro was distinguishing between bigoted extremists—such as the Columbia campus-protest leader who called for killing "Zionists"—and peaceful demonstrators, about whom the governor has said, "It’s right for young people to righteously protest and question."

Now consider the other vice-presidential contenders. Arizona’s Senator Mark Kelly leads the Democratic-nominee prediction markets along with Shapiro. Like the Pennsylvania governor, Kelly also supported using police to break up campus encampments. "Everybody has the right to protest peacefully,” he said, “but when it turns into unlawful acts—we’ve seen this in a number of colleges and universities, including here in Arizona—it’s appropriate for the police to step in.” In the same interview, Kelly said that the Israelis “have to do a better job” reducing civilian casualties in Gaza, but drew on his military experience to explain the difficulty of that task, and emphasized that “Hamas, without question, is the biggest impediment to peace in the Middle East.” Last week, Kelly attended Netanyahu’s address to Congress and applauded.

Unlike Shapiro, North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper didn’t simply enforce preexisting state laws against boycotts of Israel while in office—he signed one himself in 2017. This month, Cooper codified into state law a definition of anti-Semitism that has been adopted by many countries around the world, but that left-wing critics argue penalizes speech critical of Israel. Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota, flew state flags at half-mast after October 7 and did not respond to activists who called on the state to divest from Israel. Some were arrested after protesting outside his residence.

That all of these politicians support Israel should not come as a surprise. After all, Harris is searching for a moderate to help her win swing voters in states that are currently polling in the Trump column. Although some Democrats have grown more critical of Israel, Americans back the country by a two-to-one margin and oppose the recent campus protests, which means that any VP nominee considered by Harris would likely share such views.

And yet, activists have not organized in force to discredit any of the non-Jewish contenders for vice president on these grounds. There are no viral memes against “Killer Kelly” or “War-Crimes Walz.” Either the activists involved are extraordinarily lazy and never thought to investigate the other VP possibilities, or they think that Jews are uniquely untrustworthy. Seen in context, the “Genocide Josh” campaign and its tendentious reading of Shapiro’s record look less like a legitimate political critique than a rigged litmus test imposed on the Jewish lawmaker alone.

Sadly, this selective stigmatization isn’t new to progressive politics. In 2021, the Washington, D.C., branch of the climate-action group Sunrise Movement pulled out of a voting-rights rally because of the participation of three American Jewish groups. All three were known for their progressive domestic-policy advocacy and supported a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. But the D.C. chapter of Sunrise nonetheless argued for their exclusion because the groups were “Zionist.”

The large majority of supporters of Israel and Zionism throughout history have been—like President Biden—not Jewish. Yet the Sunrise branch made no demands of the many non-Jewish groups at the rally; they effectively carded only Jews at the door. The organization later apologized and called the incident “an opportunity to grow.” That growth seems to have been stunted. Today, the national Sunrise Movement is echoing the rhetoric of the “Genocide Josh” campaign, while it has remained mum on the Israel stances of all other VP contenders.

It has become hard to escape the conclusion that some of the activists imposing this inquisition have a problem not just with Israel or Zionism but with Jews, who they assume are serving a foreign power, no matter what they’ve actually said or done. Historically, this is nothing new. The white-nationalist right has long sought to stigmatize American Jews as subversive and exclude them from political life, arguing that Jews are loyal only to their own kind. In this case, however, some on the progressive left are the ones treating Jewish identity as inherently suspect and holding Jewish political actors to a different standard than their non-Jewish counterparts.

The irony of this whole affair is that Shapiro has actually been more outspoken against Israel’s leadership than Biden or Harris. Few Rust Belt governors would publicly rebuke the prime minister of a foreign country, let alone that of an ally like Israel. But Shapiro knows a thing or two about the subject, which is why he feels comfortable assailing both Netanyahu for thwarting peace and extremist campus protesters for engaging in anti-Semitism. The two positions are not contradictory except to binary thinkers who treat the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a partisan sport, and whose understanding of the issue derives from social-media slogans. Marooned in their moralism, the “Genocide Josh” brigade misses what makes Shapiro so interesting.

The truth is that whatever Shapiro’s views, a Jewish vice president would function in precisely the opposite manner from what these critics fear. Far from a sinister Semitic Svengali suborning the president to an Israeli agenda, a Jewish veep would be trotted out to defend Harris in her inevitable conflicts with Israel’s right-wing government, and to insulate the boss from charges of anti-Semitism. As one Republican Senate staffer put it to Jewish Insider last week, if Shapiro is picked, “forget about claiming we’re the only party standing against anti-Semitism.”

The perverse politics of Jewish identity are one reason I’ve never been enthusiastic about the prospect of a Jewish president or vice president. Anti-Semitism conceives of Jews as clandestine puppeteers who control the world’s governments and economies, fueling political and social problems. A Jewish vice president would provide the perfect canvas for these fevered fantasies—a largely ceremonial figure onto whom bigots could nonetheless project all of their conspiracies, casting him as the real power behind the Resolute Desk.

Harris would be foolish to discard any compelling VP option over their views on an intractable foreign-policy conflict thousands of miles away, while Americans stare down the prospect of another Trump presidency here at home. With the polls as tight as they are, and her campaign starting from behind, she is unlikely to choose her running mate based on unrepresentative online outrage rather than cold electoral calculus. If she picks a Jewish vice president, it will be for his impact on the Electoral College—not the Middle East.

After publication, a spokesperson for Sunrise clarified that the group does not support the "Genocide Josh" campaign, and that its tweet on the subject of Harris's pick--which was shared by the "Genocide Josh" X account--was "intended to be talking about issues, not individuals."

Yair Rosenberg is a staff writer at The Atlantic and the author of its newsletter Deep Shtetl, about the intersection of politics, culture, and religion.

I've tried to include the links and all text exactly as it appears in the article. Any errors or discrepancies there are mine.

[saturniandevil]

February 2024 Important Dates

AKA my notes on The Astrology Podcast's February forecast.

January recap: With Pluto now in Aquarius we've got new technological developments: "flying taxis" going to market, Google's new AI set to release around Jupiter in Gemini, and the first commercially available see-through LED screens. In Saturn-Neptune news, Apple's new VR operating system is being advertised as "spatial computing." Aquarius loves to experiment for the joy of discovery--even if society ends up rejecting some of these new projects. Austin points out many prophetic "near future" fiction stories came out under Jupiter-Saturn in Libra in the 1980s, which was a preview of those conjunctions occurring in air signs for the next 200 years (we had the last earth ones a few years ago). Saturn-Neptune also connotes widespread political misinformation (as it did in 2016)--we've got AI deepfake videos of political figures being used not just for humor, but also to try and sway voters in the New Hampshire Primary. Another notable Saturn in Pisces story is the restriction of the Red Sea trade route and subsequent rerouting of cargo ships along global trade routes. The Mars-Saturn conjunction in Pisces in March will likely show major developments in maritime combat or disasters.

We enter the month fresh off Pluto's ingress into Aquarius. There's a lot of energy in the sign this month, some good and some difficult. The faster-moving planets will be joining Pluto in Aquarius specifically for the first time since the 18th century, giving us the first tastes of what the next 20 years will bring for society at large. For personal charts, what house does Aquarius fall in?

February 5th - Mercury enters Aquarius, conjoins Pluto This is the first planet to join the Sun and Pluto in Aquarius. Venus and Mars will follow this ingress-conjunction pattern later this month--and the new Moon is in Aquarius. Mercury-Pluto brings up information and power such as classified document leaks, as well as hidden pathways or getting lost in the labyrinth. Determined efforts to delve into deeper truths can pay off, but we can also become obsessed with something no one else can see. Other significations include taboo subjects, with science and social rules being especially important in Aquarius, and negating ideas we once thought were true. Paranoia and manipulations also abound with Pluto-Mercury. In Aquarius we'll see these issues take light especially through new technologies. In general Pluto magnifies small things to their biggest extremes--something microscopic may change society irrevocably, etc. The PRC has a timed chart with Aquarius rising with the Moon in Aquarius, and indeed has been leading the world in uses & development of certain new technologies, which in turn has brought power struggles with other major players in those fields.

February 6th - Fortunate date (not pictured)

Set at about 8:00AM local time, this chart should give you 11° Pisces rising. The Ascendant ruler Jupiter is in the 3rd house in a day chart, emphasizing communication and other 3rd house topics. The Moon in early Capricorn applies to a trine with Jupiter, bonifying her. The Jupiter-Saturn sextile is emphasized here; while Saturn is very close to the Ascendant, he's more cooperative in a day chart, and is being received by Jupiter (is in Jupiter's sign), who he's trining. Thus Chris predicts it'll be a good balance of consolidation and growth. This does have Mars in the 11th house in a day chart, so it's not great for matters involving friends, groups, and alliances. But it is good for communicating, neighborhood, education/learning, weekly schedule, siblings, and starting a daily practice (Saturn will help us establish routines).

February 9th - Aquarius New Moon

At 20° of Aquarius, the closest configuration is a square from Uranus (19♉), connoting a disruptive or unexpected component. This is also the first Aquarius New Moon with Pluto present--Pluto will be weighing in on all monthly meetings in Aquarius for now. We can expect concerns around independence and freedom, but also emotional volatility. "How do I break from this pattern?" asks the rebel, knowing it'll be better than keeping things as they are. Mercury also applies to a square with a Jupiter during this time, expanding communications & bringing (possibly excessive) optimism. The Jupiter-Saturn sextile that hung over much of January weighs in as well, balancing our drives for both growth and consolidation.

February - 12th/13th Mars enters Aquarius Soon after he conjoins Pluto.

February 14th - Mars conjunct Pluto This is the first hard aspect since the square circa October 7th. There are going to be about 10 of these conjunctions during Pluto's trip through Aquarius. Mars connotes military operations, while Pluto brings underground groups and struggles. We've been having power dynamics stirred up in the Capricorn parts of our charts the past 20 years, and now this moves to our Aquarius house/area of life. Possessiveness and excessive force are also connoted by this planetary combination; exercise caution and take special care not to go too far. Austin describes this feeling as a "struggle against annihilation," even when we're not actually fighting for our lives. It'll take self-control and grace to navigate this Valentine's day well.

February 16th - Venus enters Aquarius Soon after she will conjoin Pluto, and later Mars.

February 17th - Venus conjunct Pluto The intensity, obsessions, and making mountains of molehills brought up by other planets' Pluto contacts will now show itself in the realm of relationships and social interactions. We get the extremes of affection and its negation with Venus-Pluto. This can be a good time for experimenting in the arts: we're getting a new movie based off Frankenstein, which was published under Pluto in Aquarius. Much of the novel is from the perspective of no the doctor but his experiment--when are we our own lab rats?

February 18th - Sun enters Pisces

February 22nd - Venus conjunct Mars Unfortunately Mars, Aquarius, and Pluto do not bode well for Valentine's-adjacent activities. Some positive connotations include magnetic allure and deep, passionate connections with others, extreme vulnerability and devotion. However, keep watchful for power struggles and manipulation in relationships and attraction. Ask yourself, "is this healthy or is this too far?" and try to set healthy boundaries. (Though the answers may be clearer in hindsight.) Look out for hastiness in relationships, jealous and aggression in love, or attraction to drama or conflict. Try to balance passion with reason, communicate clearly, and express that energy through creative outlets.

February 23rd - Mercury enters Pisces

February 24th - Virgo Full Moon

Immediately after its exact opposition to Saturn, the Moon applies to one with Saturn, who as a matter of course is also applying to Saturn by conjunction (pictured above is the Moon between these oppositions). Austin describes this as a magnified check-in with Saturn, as we're approaching the 1-year mark for Saturn in Pisces (early March). How have you been bearing having to swim with weights on? Or maybe you've hooked something powerful on your fishing line--how will you reel it in? Chris says this lunation highlights tension in the Virgo part of our charts as well, shedding light that may help us identify solutions. We have a Sun-Mercury-Saturn conjunction a few days later that will bring our attention back to Pisces.

February 26th/27th - Mars square Jupiter Jupiter wants to help, but something's getting in his way. We can also think about taking risks, leaving our comfort zone, and increased energy/enthusiasm. However, as Mars is overcoming Jupiter (earlier in the zodiac), traditional sources would indicate that the warlike side of things will gain the upper hand over peaceful Jupiter. Mars in Aquarius connotes rogue or outsider forces, while Jupiter is privileged by stability in Taurus. Keep a lookout for global trade points and major conflicts, which will likely see developments around this time. Some positives of Mars-Jupiter include increased motivation, taking bold actions, and meeting ambitious goals. On the flipside is impulsiveness, overconfidence, and recklessness. Mars-Jupiter is willing to take a risk. Sometimes, it's better not to know exactly what you're getting into so you don't get overwhelmed by a monumental task; other times, it doesn't work out. This is the placement of the intrepid explorer.

February 28th - Moon, Mercury, and Saturn conjunction in Pisces This occurs at 9 degrees of Pisces, and each planet applies to a sextile with Pisces in the following days. Jupiter brings us another management check-in after Saturn's: how have we been balancing growth with consolidation? Jupiter's going to pick up speed and zoom out of Taurus later this year, moving away from this balanced position to a difficult square with Saturn. We've been balancing weight with buoyancy, but once in Gemini Jupiter forms more of helicopter to Saturn's submarine--vehicles that can't be combined. With Saturn and Mercury (and the Sun shedding light), we'll likely see changes in the status of maritime trade and travel. From Saturn to Jupiter we may see something go from being stuck to unstuck.

As we wrap up the month, we've got some Pisces planets approaching Neptune while Jupiter approaches Uranus. And don't forget, we've got 29 days in February this year!

[dailyanarchistposts]

Author: Kevin Carson Topic: health care

Alternet has an interview with Dr. Richard Deyo, who co-authored Hope or Hype: The Obsession with Medical Advances and the High Cost of False Promises. Some excellent bits of analysis, although (like a typical goo-goo) he gets the big picture wrong.

The problem with me-too drugs is a big one. Me-too drugs are chemically very similar to other drugs already available, yet they are typically marketed as if they were important new breakthroughs, and typically with very high prices. We found in many cases that new, expensive me-too drugs are not necessarily better than older generic and less expensive drugs. Because new and heavily marketed drugs seem like they must be better, manufacturers can command higher prices. That is an important driver of drug costs.

The central factor in this process is the state’s patent policies, which drastically inflate the profitability of the newer “me, too” drugs against much cheaper competitors that do very nearly the same thing. Indeed, the patent process has a huge distorting effect on R&D, since it results in so many resources being channelled into tweaking existing drugs just enough so that they can be re-patented as “new.” Then the drug reps hit every hospital and clinic in America, drop off some free samples and pamphlets, and (most M.D.s relying on drug industry handouts for their information on the new drugs that have come out since they left med school) the “me, too” drug becomes the new standard form of treatment.

The state having created the “honey pot” with its patent system, it is quite predictable that the state-enforced drug cartels and the white-coat Mafia (medical licensing boards with their mainly pharma-influenced “standards of practice”) should drive the industry toward a model focused on these high-cost drugs, and crowd out low-cost alternatives.

Any doc who (say) recommends Co-Enzyme Q-10 as a first recourse against congestive heart failure, or attempts some other low-cost departure from the drug-‘em-and-cut-‘em model, had better remember the state licensing board has its eye on him. Even stipulating that patents themselves are legitimate (which they are not), this latter practice has the effect of outlawing one of the most important defenses against monopoly: what Schumpeter called “product-substitution.”

The fact that the authors’ proposed response to this state capitalist sewer is even more state intervention (finessing the FDA approval process, more regulation of advertising, more procedural oversight of research), rather than eliminating the forms of state intervention that create the honey-pot in the first place, is mind-boggling. It’s like looking at one of those Rube Goldberg inventions.

Speaking of inventions.... One of the best regular features on MST3K was the weekly “Inventions” segment. My favorite was a treadmill with motorized wheels on the bottom, just in case you felt like moving around outside while you were walking. But with big government liberals making proposals like these, it’s hard for the farceurs on the Satellite of Love to compete.

[jcmarchi]

Starting reading the AI Snake Oil book online today

New Post has been published on https://thedigitalinsider.com/starting-reading-the-ai-snake-oil-book-online-today/

Starting reading the AI Snake Oil book online today

The first chapter of the AI snake oil book is now available online. It is 30 pages long and summarizes the book’s main arguments. If you start reading now, you won’t have to wait long for the rest of the book — it will be published on the 24th of September. If you haven’t pre-ordered it yet, we hope that reading the introductory chapter will convince you to get yourself a copy.

We were fortunate to receive positive early reviews by The New Yorker, Publishers’ Weekly (featured in the Top 10 science books for Fall 2024), and many other outlets. We’re hosting virtual book events (City Lights, Princeton Public Library, Princeton alumni events), and have appeared on many podcasts to talk about the book (including Machine Learning Street Talk, 20VC, Scaling Theory).

Our book is about demystifying AI, so right out of the gate we address what we think is the single most confusing thing about it: 

AI is an umbrella term for a set of loosely related technologies

Because AI is an umbrella term, we treat each type of AI differently. We have chapters on predictive AI, generative AI, as well as AI used for social media content moderation. We also have a chapter on whether AI is an existential risk. We conclude with a discussion of why AI snake oil persists and what the future might hold. By AI snake oil we mean AI applications that do not (and perhaps cannot) work. Our book is a guide to identifying AI snake oil and AI hype. We also look at AI that is harmful even if it works well — such as face recognition used for mass surveillance. 

While the book is meant for a broad audience, it does not simply rehash the arguments we have made in our papers or on this newsletter. We make scholarly contributions and we wrote the book to be suitable for adoption in courses. We will soon release exercises and class discussion questions to accompany the book.

Chapter 1: Introduction. We begin with a summary of our main arguments in the book. We discuss the definition of AI (and more importantly, why it is hard to come up with one), how AI is an umbrella term, what we mean by AI Snake Oil, and who the book is for. 

Generative AI has made huge strides in the last decade. On the other hand, predictive AI is used for predicting outcomes to make consequential decisions in hiring, banking, insurance, education, and more. While predictive AI can find broad statistical patterns in data, it is marketed as far more than that, leading to major real-world misfires. Finally, we discuss the benefits and limitations of AI for content moderation on social media.

We also tell the story of what led the two of us to write the book. The entire first chapter is now available online.

Chapter 2: How predictive AI goes wrong. Predictive AI is used to make predictions about people—will a defendant fail to show up for trial? Is a patient at high risk of negative health outcomes? Will a student drop out of college? These predictions are then used to make consequential decisions. Developers claim predictive AI is groundbreaking, but in reality it suffers from a number of shortcomings that are hard to fix. 

We have discussed the failures of predictive AI in this blog. But in the book, we go much deeper through case studies to show how predictive AI fails to live up to the promises made by its developers.

Chapter 3: Can AI predict the future? Are the shortcomings of predictive AI inherent, or can they be resolved? In this chapter, we look at why predicting the future is hard — with or without AI. While we have made consistent progress in some domains such as weather prediction, we argue that this progress cannot translate to other settings, such as individuals’ life outcomes, the success of cultural products like books and movies, or pandemics. 

Since much of our newsletter is focused on topics of current interest, this is a topic that we have never written about here. Yet, it is foundational knowledge that can help you build intuition around when we should expect predictions to be accurate.

Chapter 4: The long road to generative AI. Recent advances in generative AI can seem sudden, but they build on a series of improvements over seven decades. In this chapter, we retrace the history of computing advances that led to generative AI. While we have written a lot about current trends in generative AI, in the book, we look at its past. This is crucial for understanding what to expect in the future. 

Chapter 5: Is advanced AI an existential threat? Claims about AI wiping out humanity are common. Here, we critically evaluate claims about AI’s existential risk and find several shortcomings and fallacies in popular discussion of x-risk. We discuss approaches to defending against AI risks that improve societal resilience regardless of the threat of advanced AI.

Chapter 6: Why can’t AI fix social media? One area where AI is heavily used is content moderation on social media platforms. We discuss the current state of AI use on social media, and highlight seven reasons why improvements in AI alone are unlikely to solve platforms’ content moderation woes. We haven’t written about content moderation in this newsletter.

Chapter 7: Why do myths about AI persist? Companies, researchers, and journalists all contribute to AI hype. We discuss how myths about AI are created and how they persist. In the process, we hope to give you the tools to read AI news with the appropriate skepticism and identify attempts to sell you snake oil.

Chapter 8: Where do we go from here? While the previous chapter focuses on the supply of snake oil, in the last chapter, we look at where the demand for AI snake oil comes from. We also look at the impact of AI on the future of work, the role and limitations of regulation, and conclude with vignettes of the many possible futures ahead of us. We have the agency to determine which path we end up on, and each of us can play a role.

We hope you will find the book useful and look forward to hearing what you think. 

The New Yorker: “In AI Snake Oil, Arvind Narayanan and Sayash Kapoor urge skepticism and argue that the blanket term AI can serve as a smokescreen for underperforming technologies.”

Kirkus: “Highly useful advice for those who work with or are affected by AI—i.e., nearly everyone.”

Publishers’ Weekly: Featured in the Fall 2024 list of top science books.

Jean Gazis: “The authors admirably differentiate fact from opinion, draw from personal experience, give sensible reasons for their views (including copious references), and don’t hesitate to call for action. . . . If you’re curious about AI or deciding how to implement it, AI Snake Oil offers clear writing and level-headed thinking.”

Elizabeth Quill: “A worthwhile read whether you make policy decisions, use AI in the workplace or just spend time searching online. It’s a powerful reminder of how AI has already infiltrated our lives — and a convincing plea to take care in how we interact with it.”

We’ve been on many other podcasts that will air around the time of the book’s release, and we will keep this list updated.

The book is available to preorder internationally on Amazon.

[mollywog]

Wild Wednesdays

Part 3

Start at beginning | Part 3

It was the afternoon lull and Peeta was alone at the counter, absentmindedly sketching when the bell above the door jingled. Hastily shoving his pad under the counter, he looked up to an unexpected sight: Katniss Everdeen. “Hey!”

She smiled, surveying the front, “this is nice. I haven’t been this way in ages. It looks different than what I remember; Prim and I used to check out the cakes after school.”

Johanna had a passion for caffeine and they’d updated to accommodate their expansion into the craft coffee market. “Thanks. Yeah, we did some renovating when Jo and I bought the place. But surely you didn’t come all the way across town to reminisce about the old display case placement. Tell me the truth: you came for the buns didn’t you?” He winked.

After all the years of being aware of her, Peeta was really beginning to get to know the real Katniss. She’d always seemed so serious, but in the course of their weekly zoo visits he had discovered a dry-wit hidden beneath her solemn exterior. He also found the easiest way to crack the facade was with playful innuendo. One week the turtles at the zoo had been mating; he smiled everytime he remembered her flustered explanation to the inquisitive Daisy.

“There’s an air quality warning,” she said matter of factly, ignoring his attempt to make her blush.

He looked past her out the window skeptically, “how do you know this stuff? It looks fine to me. Or is this some sort of top secret Parks intel?” He dropped his voice to an exaggerated whisper, “Should you be telling me?”

She nodded grimly, “yes, I came to warn you at great peril to both our safety. The park rangers could show up at any moment.”

He raised his eyebrow conspiratorially.

She continued, “it’s actually part of all the weather apps: Air quality, Allergen alerts, UV index… how have you survived this long without knowing these things?”

He shrugged, “I get all my hard hitting weather information from Finnick Odair like a true Citizen of Panem.” The Channel 4 weatherman had something of a cult following; this had more to do with his minimal wardrobe and less to do with how accurate his predictions were.

She snorted, “there’s your problem.”

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