#data prediction

[analysermax]

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[whumpacabra]

I don’t have a posted DNI for a few reasons but in this case I’ll be crystal clear:

I do not want people who use AI in their whump writing (generating scenarios, generating story text, etc.) to follow me or interact with my posts. I also do not consent to any of my writing, posts, or reblogs being used as inputs or data for AI.

[destiel-news-channel]

[Image ID: There are three images. The first one is similar to a title card and shows a screenshot froom the show supernatural. Dean and Castiel stand facing each other. The screenshot is faded and superimposed with a blue background from a news show. In the front is a logo which says 'Destiel News Channel'. The second is a screenshot of Castiel from the same confession scene. At the bottom is a headline which reads 'Irish Unification?' and a subline which says 'Let's hope this Star Trek prediction comes true'. The top right corner shows a screenshot from Star Trek. It shows Data (an android in a yellow uniform with pale skin) talking to Picard, who is wearing a red uniform and is shown from behind. Subtitles read 'the Irish Unification of 2024,'. The third image is a screenshot of Dean from the same scene edited so that a text looking like subtitles spells out 'I love you'. /End ID]

Happy New Year y'all!

[travelingtwentysomething]

They're taking all our government data to train AI's

[antivaan]

wait i wanna cause problems on purpose too (inspired by @commanderofthegrey's poll on the architect vs. solas)

[kaurwreck]

y'all stop saying fyodor has never looked so sincerely angry before. he has.

I know this because, and this is not an exaggeration, the vast majority of my manga revisits are to enjoy his expressions of anger, disdain, and malcontent. i shit you not, several of my bsd meta posts wholly unrelated to fyodor were written because I happened to notice something else while flipping through to imbibe fedya's hissy fits. I don't reread the manga when I do this, just those scenes, unless something else catches my attention.

anyway, stop disrespecting my beloved pastime.

[sometimesanequine]

bonus horse brought to you by mental illness today

[unopenablebox]

I've Seen the Triangle

[rawliverandgoronspice]

I do genuinely hate how trusting simple shit on the internet is starting to become a russian roulette game. Even if AI wasn't based on maybe one of the biggest heists of human history, it would still be a massive L to the culture that we are expected to become paranoid about any interaction we have with other human beings, our appreciation for art, our trust of the images we see, etc. This is just making everything so much worse, and there is no justification for it that holds any water.

[butts-bouncing-on-the-beltway]

Apparently I'm doing something right because even with the market crashes, my investment portfolio has ONLY gained value since the beginning of the year, what the fuck man

[analysermax]

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[willosword]

WOOO now that i'm done with my rewatch i can post my little side project :]

below the cut is my personal record of invincible's rate of adaptation with episodes vs issues and pages bc im super normal about this kind of stuff (not fussing too much with it so some pages might slip through the cracks here and there):

SEASON ONE

s1 episode 1: #1 (19 pages), #2 (9 pages), #6 (3 pages), #7 (21 pages), #16 (2 pages)

TOTAL ADAPTED: 54 pages from 5 different issues

s1 episode 2: #2 (7ish pages), #3 (16 pages), #4 (3 pages), #5 (21 pages), #8 (1 page), #14 (5 pages)

TOTAL ADAPTED: 53 pages from 6 different issues

s1 episode 3: #6 (2 pages), #8 (14 pages), #9 (13 pages), #10 (7 pages), #21 (1 page)

TOTAL ADAPTED: 37 pages from 5 different issues

s1 episode 4: #15 (2 pages), #18 (18 pages), #21 (2 pages), #25 (2 pages), #26 (2 pages)

TOTAL ADAPTED: 26 pages from 5 different issues

s1 episode 5: #14 (1 page), #18 (5 pages), #19 (16 pages), #30 (1 page)

TOTAL ADAPTED: 23 pages from 4 different issues

s1 episode 6: #6 (13 pages), #8 (3 pages), #20 (15 pages), #21 (2 pages), #22 (9 pages), #25 (2), #30 (1 page), #31 (4 pages), #32 (1 page), #36 (9 pages), #37 (7 pages)

TOTAL ADAPTED: 66 pages from 11 different issues

s1 episode 7: #9 (3 pages), #10 (9 pages), #26 (1 page), #34 (6 pages), #35 (2 pages)

TOTAL ADAPTED: 21 pages from 5 different issues

s1 episode 8: #11 (21 pages), #12 (20 pages), #13 (20 pages), #14 (7ish pages), #22 (1 page)

TOTAL ADAPTED: 69 pages from 5 different issues

(season total 349 pages)

SEASON TWO

s2 episode 1: #13 (1 page), #14 (3 pages), #16 (11 pages), #17 (3 pages), #18 (1 page), #20 (1 page), #21 (1 page), #22 (1 page), #24 (16 pages)

TOTAL ADAPTED: 38 pages from 9 different issues

s2 episode 2: #9 (2 pages), #14 (2 pages), #15 (12 pages), #17 (3 pages), #19 (3 pages), #21 (12 pages), #22 (1 page), #25 (1 page), #31 (4 pages), #38 (2 pages)

TOTAL ADAPTED: 42 pages from 10 different issues

s2 episode 3: #20 (3 pages), #23 (20 pages), #24 (1 page), #25 (14 pages), #36 (1 page), #37 (2 pages)

TOTAL ADAPTED: 41 pages from 6 different issues

s2 episode 4: #26 (16 pages), #27 (10 pages), #28 (15 pages), #29 (17 pages)

TOTAL ADAPTED: 58 pages from 4 different issues

s2 episode 5: #22 (4 pages), #28 (7 pages), #29 (1 page), #30 (16 pages), #31 (9 pages) #38 (6 pages), #39 (17 pages), #40 (19 pages)

TOTAL ADAPTED: 79 pages from 8 different issues

s2 episode 6: #24 (2 pages), #28 (3 pages), #35 (15 pages), #41 (16 pages), #43 (13 page)

TOTAL ADAPTED: 49 pages from 5 different issues

s2 episode 7: #10 (2 pages), #25 (4 pages), #32 (3 pages), #37 (4 pages), #38 (3 pages), #41 (2 pages), #43 (1 page), #44 (10 pages), #45 (13 pages), #47 (2 pages), #48 (2 pages),

TOTAL ADAPTED: 46 pages from 11 different issues

s2 episode 8: #33 (20 pages), #34 (14 pages), #43 (2 pages), #45 (2 pages), #46 (5 pages), #47 (2 pages)

TOTAL ADAPTED: 45 pages from 6 different issues

(season total 398 pages)

[peanutheaddd]

hi peanut!!! just wanted to tell you that I REALLY REALLY like your art!!! There's something about your art style and the way you draw dogman characters that makes me kick my feet and giggle in a very giddy way, it's really nice!!!💖💖💖💖💖BUT I ESPECIALLY GET A KICK WHENEVER I SEE YOUR POSTS ALSO BECAUSE OF YOUR TAGS AND CAPTIONS, cause I can totally understand the Dogman Disease™, omg, it's terminal and I'm totally sick with it as well, it's so bad I infected my bff with it too after he witnessed me descending to madness on call while rambling about it😭😭😭so whenever you scream about them, I always think "SEE, SHE GETS IT,,,,SHE TOTALLY GETS IT" and giggle a lot about it, PFFFF-💖💖💖

I also love all your aus, they're so cool!!! AND I DIDN'T KNOW YOU WROTE FICS, I had read them before knowing you were the author, and when I realized you had written them I got really excited, THEY'RE SOOOOOO CUTEEEEGEHWBWHHWHWJWHWJA😭😭😭💖💖💖💖💖💖💖

UHHHHH, THAT'S IT, I THINK, hope you have an absolutely amazing day/night, whatever your time zone is, take care peanut!!!💖💖💖💖

OMG THANK YOU?!?!?!!??!?!?!?!! THIS IS SO SWEET yeah im really deep in this hyperfix i fear. this is actually my longest lasting hyperfix so i have no idea when it will end . GHANK YOU AGAIN this ask was so sweet 😭😭😭😭

[girlonthelasttrain]

I think when you try to speculate about something like this [the impact that AI technologies will have on the job market in the near future], it’s important to recognize that nothing like this has ever really happened before, so it’s hard to make predictions. But we worked with two economists, Jonathan Hersh and Daniel Rock, who have made fine-grained estimates of which jobs are going to be the most affected by AI and which the least. And their work indicates that this will impact college-educated people more than working-class people for the simple reason that LLMs are advancing more quickly than robotics is. And AI will also have a bigger impact on employment in cities and suburbs than in rural areas. And it will impact women more than men.

(from this article)

[tinseltownie]

If 6 hours ago you’d told me Max Verstappen was going to win the 2024 Brazilian Grand Prix, I would’ve laughed in your face

[somethingusefulfromflorida]

The first presidential election in which every state picked their electors via statewide popular vote was 1868. Before that, at least one state had the legislature pick the winner (South Carolina was the last holdout). Back then, only white men over 21 could vote, but the electorate saw significant boosts in 1920 with the passage of the 19th amendment (white women) and 1972 following the civil rights movement (black men and women) and the passage of the 26th amendment (18 year olds).

The total number of eligible voters grows with the overall population of the country, and looking at the data since 1972 we can predict that there will be about 244 million eligible voters this year.

But eligibility is only half the equation. Actual voter turnout never even comes close to 100%. Since 1972, it has never gone above 66.6% (in 2020), averaging 57.2%

57.2% of 244 million voters would mean we'd see 140 million votes cast in November, but that's actually way lower than we would expect. Let's ignore turnout percentage (which fluctuates wildly between 50% and 60%) and look instead at the actual number of votes cast:

There were over 158 million votes cast in 2020, and given that we saw record turnout of 66.6% due to a number of simultaneous crises, it makes perfect sense that the total number of votes cast in 2024 would fall, but not all the way down to 140 million. Between 1984 and 1988, the popular vote dropped by 1 million. Between 1992 and 1996, the popular vote dropped by 8 million. Between 2008 and 2012, the popular vote dropped by 2 million. No polls seem to indicate an 18 million dropoff in voter turnout this year; that would be unprecedented. According to the line of best fit, it is much more likely that we'll see ballpark 150 million votes cast, probably closer to 151 million. That would indicate a voter turnout of around 62%, which is higher than average but more realistic.

Since 1972, the two major parties combine to win an average of 95.5% of the popular vote per election. Third party candidates do well in waves, with considerable showings (over 5%) in 1980, 1992, 1996, and 2016. Since Kennedy dropped out of the race and neither the Libertarians nor the Greens are making waves as spoilers this year, we can assume that the Democrats and Republicans will have a better than average showing. Looking at the trend lines for major and third party percentages, it would show Kamala Harris receiving 51.7% of the vote (about 78 million), Donald Trump receiving 45.0% (about 68 million), and third party candidates combining for 3.3% (about 5 million).

To scale:

I do not believe that the actual final results will be anywhere close to this prediction. I think that these extrapolations show Kamala Harris overperforming by a considerable amount. She will almost certainly win the popular vote, I don't doubt that, but I think she will win a plurality instead of a majority (under 50%). Donald Trump is not wildly more or less popular than he was the last two times, in which he received 46.1% and 46.8% of the vote, so I do not think it is unreasonable to assume he will receive a minimum of 47% this year, given demographic shifts among suburban voters, black men and Hispanics. He may even perform better than that, but not better than Harris. I would bet my life on that fact. Democrats have won the popular vote in 7 of the last 8 elections, and polls do not show Trump magically coming up from behind on his third try.

When we exclude years with exceptionally high third party turnout, the major parties average 98.3% instead of 95.5% since 1972, but we can't just pick and choose what data to include. At this point, I'm deviating from the hard numbers and am operating more on vibes. Third party turnout will be lower than in 2016 (5.7%), but probably higher than in 2020 (1.8%). If we take the 3.3% figure from the trend lines, that would mean Harris and Trump would receive a combined 96.7% (146 million votes). If we assume Trump has a floor of 47% support (about 71 million votes), then the best Harris could do is 49.7% (about 75 million votes). There is no conceivable scenario where Trump wins the popular vote, so his ceiling (and Harris's floor) is something like 48.35% (73 million votes each).

The only president to win two non-consecutive terms was Grover Cleveland, but he actually won the popular vote all three times he ran, 1884 (48.8%), 1888 (48.6%, lost the electoral college), and 1892 (46.0%). Trump is the exact opposite, having NEVER won the popular vote but still won the electoral college regardless. Franklin Roosevelt won four times in a row, 1932 (57.4%), 1936 (60.8%), 1940 (54.7%), and 1944 (53.4%). There was a major dropoff between his second and third bid, even though he was ridiculously popular. Trump is NOT ridiculously popular, but I don't think he's going to perform worse this time. Cleveland performed worse because there was a significant third party challenger, and FDR was the first sitting incumbent to run for a third term (at a time when WW2 was ramping up and voters were afraid of America joining). Trump does not have either of these disadvantages, so while it's possible he could perform worse than in 2020, I think Harris has so much baggage attached to her name (real and imaginary) that Trump will do better than he did against Clinton or Biden. A lot of voters are fed up with him, but that doesn't mean they will support Harris.

I have no real data to confirm these confidence intervals, but this what I would expect next month

47.0% to 48.3% for Trump (71 million to 73 million), I'd say 48.0% (72.5 million)

48.4% to 49.7% for Harris (73 million to 75 million), I'd say 48.7% (73.5 million)

Now, the electoral college is anybody's guess! Who fuckin knows?