#he employed trey for guidance

[distant-velleity]

In Return

Summary: How quickly a month flies by -- it's already White Day. Word count: 800+ A/N: Sequel to this, this one makes more sense with the context of that one. I didn't write the AzuDavi one bc I'm. Admittedly tired and this one's already the length of that with just two buuuut. I had these two pre-written so here you go!! I love writing silly cute stuff it's wonderful. Enjoy <33

~

[I]

When Ace finally makes it to the secluded part of the hedge maze as instructed, he finds Yu waiting there already—sitting with arms and legs crossed, a bouquet of origami flowers in one hand. With the chocolate pastries waiting on the table beside him, if someone had said the TA had been a noblewoman fond of teatime in a past life, Ace would have believed them in a heartbeat.

“You never cut me any slack, do ya?” Ace asks, dry but light-hearted. He doesn’t even need to ask what’s going on—he’d be an idiot to not recognize the date and connect the dots.

Yu just shrugs. “I wasn’t gonna do this in front of all our friends.”

“So putting me on a wild goose chase through the Heartslabyul maze was better?”

“Would you believe me if I said this was all done out of spite for waking me up at the asscrack of dawn on Val— Promise Day?”

“You’re short and all your rage is compressed into just 160 centimeters,” says Ace with a shit-eating grin, “so I could believe that.”

He almost doesn’t catch the paper bouquet before it can smack him in the chest.

“You suck,” Yu declares, but Ace can tell he’s trying and failing to hide his own smile. “I spent a whole month overthinking this, and you act like that? Dude. That’s no way to treat your valentine.”

It’s a term Ace has only become familiar with through Yu’s explanations of his home world, but hearing it—your valentine, isn’t that something—fills him with a weird, jittery sort of pride. Not that he’d ever admit to it, because he’d never live down the excited butterflies in his stomach.

He doesn’t stop grinning. “Sorry, not sorry. Anything I can do to make up for it?”

Yu makes a show of pretending to think about it, then sits down in his chair with a self-satisfied smirk (for once, Ace is willing to concede this to Octavinelle—their scheming habits look good on the TA). “Well. It’d really suck if I had to eat all these pastries by myself…”

“You know me, I’m never gonna turn down food or my favorite TA.” Before Yu can say your only TA, and before he can think it through, Ace boldly concludes with, “Guess it’s a date now.”

He’s not sure which of them turns more red after that comment, or which of them digs into a handmade pastry faster to pretend that wasn’t just said aloud.

-

[II]

Let it be known that Chrysos has rarely experienced being jumped from behind. Even as a “human,” very few people at Night Raven College have the audacity to mess with him, which means that he can enjoy moments on its campus in peace—like right now, reading on a bench in the courtyard. 

So, it is a relatively new experience for him to suddenly feel warmth against his back, and arms loosely draped over his shoulder in a hug. 

He almost gasps. “Wha—”

“Surprise,” says a very familiar voice—Chrysos would know, he knows every little inflection and lilt of it by heart—that reverberates from the owner’s chest and through him. “You didn’t think I’d forget about answering your Promise Day gift, did you?”

Santiago rests his chin on the top of Chrysos’ head as he dangles a little box in front of him. It’s the most physically affectionate he’s been in, well, ever—but Chrysos finds that he doesn’t mind at all.

Chrysos sighs in resignation, although in reality, he’s starting to feel elated. “It’d better be something practical, at least. I don’t want to be like Housewarden Ashengrotto, staring dreamily at a vase of enchanted roses on his desk all day…”

When Santiago snickers, he remembers that it was supposed to be a secret, but—whatever. It’s not as if he spilled the identity of Azul’s admirer (or rather, Azul’s admired). 

“Trust me, it’s very practical.” Santiago lets Chrysos take the box—it’s pure white, with a green company logo on the corner of the lid. Fitting for White Day. 

“I don’t trust that for a second,” Chrysos retorts playfully, and then opens the box to be instantly greeted with the aroma of both coffee and something more soothing.

“Cool, yeah? I arranged to have ‘em sent to school—they’re specialty sweets from my hometown,” boasts Santiago. There’s a smile evident in his voice, which takes on the rise in pitch it usually does when he’s genuinely eager. “There’s the famous coffee ones, ‘cause you haven’t lived until you’ve had those, and then I also got you some drops that should be easy on your throat. Since, y’know.”

Chrysos decides the gift might be very practical after all, if only for his insides. “…T—Thanks, Santiago.”

“Well, I’m just repaying what you gave me on Promise Day~ Aren’t you all about paying back debts?” And then Santiago has the temerity to laugh, music to Chrysos’ ears as it reverberates through him again.

…He’s starting to get why Azul has been acting so visibly lovey-dovey.

[kururreal]

“loving you was like going to war. i never came back the same.”

❪ RIDDLE ROSEHEARTS .ᐟ ❫ 𓍢ִ໋❤️

𖢷 ۪ ࣪ ﹙☆﹚ ࣪ ִ HEADCANNONS ‹3

warning : out of character, out of character, out of character, out of character, out of character, out of character, out of character, out of character—

𝐈. Riddle will insist on you attending school. Avoiding school due to anxiety would be an act of cowardice. her partner must face their fears and overcome their trepidation in order to succeed. Attending school is essential for their future growth and development. Running away from responsibilities is unacceptable! :((

𝐈𝐈. She believes that opting out of school is not a viable choice. Skipping classes would be unproductive and would send a negative message. It is crucial for her partner to attend school and be responsible as it sets a positive example for others.

𝐈𝐈𝐈. Although she may come across as strict, please understand that his intentions are good. She genuinely cares about your future success and development. She firmly believes that attending school is crucial for YOUR progress and growth. There is no room for negotiation on this matter; he insists that her partner must go to school.

𝐈𝐕. She is deeply disappointed in you, as you are meant to be her king of hearts, after all. She finds it incomprehensible why you are allowing your anxieties to dictate your actions. Your attendance and participation in school is crucial. She cannot permit you to skip school without a valid reason. You have a responsibility to your academics and your bright future!!

𝐕. It is possible that he may overreact in this situation. She may resort to using intimidation tactics, threatening to revoke certain privileges, or even attempt to manipulate the circumstances to make it appear as though skipping school is unacceptable. This response may stem from her intense dedication to academics and his belief in the importance of attending school without exceptions.

𝐕𝐈. Like come on, don’t be ridiculous! Your anxiety is not a good enough reason for you to miss school. You're being completely illogical and weak if you think you can use that as an excuse not to attend. You're letting your fears control you, and it's not okay. You need to get over it and show up to class like a responsible student!!

𝐕𝐈𝐈. Kindly disregard any discomfort or injuries that Riddle may have inadvertently inflicted upon you. Instead, direct your attention to his voice as her dispenses knowledge and guides you through the process. Although she may lecture and maneuver you as deemed necessary, you are expected to remain attentive and compliant, it is crucial that you listen carefully and heed his guidance ! ! ^o^

❪ TREY CLOVER .ᐟ ❫ 𓍢ִ໋💚

𝐈. Her mind would wander to what could have caused such a drastic change in your perspective. She would question if there was something specific that made you decide against attending. Additionally, she would ponder if you required assistance, consolation, or if simply being present for you was what you needed most.

𝐈𝐈. She wouldn't be angry or upset at your decision not to attend school, but rather, she would be filled with concern. Her main focus would be on understanding what was causing your reluctance and if there was anything she could do to assist you. Helping you and finding out what was bothering you would be her top priorities, rather than expressing any discontentment with your choice.

𝐈𝐈𝐈. She would employ a soothing method, gently stroking you as if you were a cat or small pet, in an attempt to alleviate your anxiety. If the prospect of attending school made you feel uneasy, she would remain by your side, providing comfort and support. She understood that forcing someone against their will would be counterproductive, so she prioritized your comfort and readiness above all else.

𝐈𝐕. It may seem somewhat nonsensical, she mused, to not go to school because of anxiety. She found the situation peculiar, yet she refrained from expressing this verbalizing her thoughts, choosing to keep them to herself rather than sharing them aloud.

𝐕. She vowed internally that she wouldn't let you skip school without a valid reason. The idea of you dealing with such anxiety seemed unacceptable to her. She insisted that you could rely on her to manage the situation and assured you that you didn't have to face your anxieties alone, promising to take care of everything.

𝐕𝐈. She firmly believed that you shouldn't be weighed down by trivial concerns. In her mind, you should maintain close proximity to her by remaining at her side, where she deemed you safe and secure. Her intentions were purely to secure your well-being, and she wholeheartedly wanted what was most beneficial for you, her darling.

𝐕𝐈𝐈. She was resolute in finding a way to persuade you to attend school, believing that education was too important to compromise. Moreover, she firmly believed that anxiety was not a valid excuse to give up on your studies. She was determined to help you overcome any obstacles and ensure that you received the education you deserved, regardless of your worries.

❪ CATER DIAMOND .ᐟ ❫ 𓍢ִ໋🧡

𝐈. As soon as the suggestion left your lips, she immediately moved to discard such thoughts. She couldn't comprehend why the idea had even crossed your mind in the first place. The instant you mentioned not returning, she was determined to refocus your thoughts and persuade you otherwise.

𝐈𝐈. You seriously believe that spending an entire year doing nothing is a wise decision? Those formative years of your youth would be squandered by staying home. Give her a good reason why you wouldn't seize the opportunity to attend school and make the most of your time.

𝐈𝐈𝐈. She firmly grasped your cheeks, gently yet firmly holding your face in her hands as she squeezed and squished. With a resolute tone, she asserted that you were not going to skip school. There would be no room for excuses, and she was adamant about making you understand. You would attend school every single time, without fail, and she was leaving no room for negotiation.

she’s almost the same as riddle heh…. (i love my majesty) this is insanely out of character im killing nyself

𝐈𝐕. Cater's distress was evident on her face, as she briefly averted her gaze before returning her gaze to you. Genuine confusion and worry filled her expression as she struggled to comprehend why you would consider dropping out of school. Her voice trembled with a hint of panic, as if the mere thought of you leaving caused her great anxiety. The prospect of not being able to see you every day filled her with dread, as she feared it would create an emotional disconnect between you both.

𝐕. She would take a resolute stand, firmly attempting to dissuade you from dropping out of school, as she was keenly aware of the potential consequences. She would remain steadfast in her efforts to persuade you, virtually glued to your side, to the extent that the sound of her voice became an ever-present presence in your thoughts.

𝐕𝐈. Perhaps mentioning that you were contemplating not attending school at all was a misstep, as you should have anticipated the kind of reaction that would ensue. In hindsight, you knew that she would likely overreact, becoming even more overwhelming in her response.

𝐕𝐈𝐈. She vehemently asserted that dropping out was not an option, as the thought of school without your presence would be unbearably dull to her. She went a step further, declaring that she would not hesitate to find you and physically force you to attend classes, if necessary.

im sorry if cater is extremely ooc 💔 im not the biggest cater fan out there

❪ ACE TRAPPOLA .ᐟ ❫ 𓍢ִ໋❤️

𝐈. She incredulously questioned the extent of your anxiety about attending school, insisting that it wasn't as dire a situation as you were making it out to be. However, if your nerves were truly that frayed, she offered reassured you with a friendly tone, reminding you that you could always lean on her friendship for support.

𝐈𝐈. She was both mad and annoyed by your decision to not return to school this year. It filled her with indignation that you would even consider skipping school, only to mope around and do nothing all day while she had to deal with the workload and coursework alone. Frustration laced her words as she expressed her disbelief and disappointment in your choice.

𝐈𝐈𝐈. She would unleash her anger, unleashing a barrage of pent-up frustration and disappointment. She would spare no effort in making you feel guilt and shame for even thinking about dropping out of school. Her words would cut deeply, aiming to make you realize the full weight of the consequences and impact of your decision.

𝐈𝐕. She would harshly tell you to toughen up, insisting that fear was no excuse to become a lazy, unproductive burden. Her words would be sharp and blunt, leaving little room for negotiation or compromise. She believed that it was time for you to face your fears and take responsibility.

𝐕. In a purely hypothetical scenario, if you were to skip school, she would hypothetically devise a plan to hypothetically lock you in a small room with four walls and no windows. This hypothetical room would hypothetically leave you with nothing to do but wallow in your own misery, with no outlets or distractions to ease your boredom or discomfort.

𝐕𝐈. Of course, it's purely hypothetical! If you were to hypothetically entertain the idea of skipping school to become a worthless procrastinator, she would hypothetically take it upon herself to forcibly drag your ass to school, regardless of any resistance or excuses.

𝐕𝐈𝐈. She would be seething with anger, beyond mad, and she wouldn't mince words. Instead of appealing to your sense of responsibility with the usual "education is important" argument, she would take a firm approach, using force if necessary, to make sure you went to school whether you wanted to or not.

❪ DEUCE SPADE .ᐟ ❫ 𓍢ִ໋💙

𝐈. She would be taken aback at first, acknowledging the significance of education for your future. However, she would attempt to empathize with your situation, recognizing that school can indeed be a source of stress and anxiety. However, she’d express her belief that skipping an entire year of school seemed like an excessive solution to the problem, don’t you think?

𝐈𝐈. She would initially try to reason with you, attempting to persuade you that skipping school is not a wise choice. Then, recognizing the importance of communication, she would ask why you are feeling the way you do, seeking to understand your thoughts and emotions better because, y' know, communication is important and all that.

𝐈𝐈𝐈. She would wrestle with conflicting thoughts in her mind. If your anxiety is truly that severe, then perhaps it would be wise to skip school and take time to focus on your well-being. However, she would also question the notion of avoiding problems, suggesting that it might be seen as cowardice. She would encourage you to confront your troubles head-on rather than giving up without even trying.

𝐈𝐕. If you were contemplating missing school, she would encourage you to take a step back and identify the source of your anxiety. Then, together, she would work to find a solution, reminding you in a compassionate tone that it's perfectly okay to be afraid, but the tendency to run away could only exacerbate your anxiety in the long run. She would assure you that you could count on her unwavering support regardless of whatever decision you ultimately made.

𝐕. Though she might not be entirely sincere in her words, she would maintain a firm stand on not allowing you to quit school effortlessly. However, she would recognize that force would not be the best course of action. Instead, she would try to persuade you with reasons to go to school. If those efforts fail, she might resort to more persistent methods of trying to change your mind, using various means to "convince" you.

𝐕𝐈. She would express that school wouldn't be the same without your presence, feeling a sense of incompleteness. She would attempt to encourage you to face your anxieties head-on. Hiding from reality because of fear wasn't the solution. She recognized her role as a friend, vowing to offer whatever support she could to help you overcome your challenges rather than just allowing you to give up.

𝐕𝐈𝐈. She would make an effort to talk you into going to school, proposing the idea of her accompanying you on campus to help you feel more at ease. If necessary, she would even take on the role of your personal bodyguard to ensure your attendance. One thing was certain, she was determined not to let you drop out.

❪ ENMA YUUKEN .ᐟ ❫ 𓍢ִ໋🤍

𝐈. Despite appearing as one of the more sane individuals within Heartslabyul, and possibly even within NRC, Yuken firmly believes in protecting, guarding, and diligently watching over her darling with an intense level of attention. While she recognizes that it's natural to feel anxious about returning to school, especially if past experiences have been unfavorable, she also understands the potential negative long-term consequences of choosing not to attend school, which can impact education, social life, and future prospects.

𝐈𝐈. She would be overcome with a strong desire to take action and provide assistance in any way possible. Driven by a fierce protective instinct, she would go to great lengths to support you, whether it meant offering comfort and emotional support or taking drastic measures if necessary to ensure your safety and well-being.

𝐈𝐈𝐈. She would most likely take proactive measures to help address your fears. She would offer steadfast support and be prepared to go to great lengths to ensure your comfort and security even at the risk of personal sacrifice. It is perfectly natural for individuals to feel anxious about returning to school. A fresh year often brings new obstacles and the burden of adapting to a new routine. If you feel unprepared and believe a break is necessary, taking a year off is not an unreasonable choice to gather your thoughts.

Nevertheless, if you do decide to return, it's best to approach things gradually, without mulling over future concerns extensively. You're capable of overcoming challenges, and she has faith in you.

𝐈𝐕. She is inherently caring and wishes to support you in every possible way. She has deep affection for you, yet she cannot tolerate seeing you drown in misery. Experiencing anxiety is a natural part of being human, and returning to school can indeed be a significant and intimidating transition.

𝐕. A diligent, caring, and determined young individual with a penchant for assisting individuals, even at personal peril, would most likely take action if she discovered a ‘dear friend’ was struggling with anxiety about resuming school and contemplating skipping classes. Yuuken would likely experience a profound sense of responsibility and concern for the distressed friend… you. Considering her inclination to aid others, she might actively seek ways to provide support and comfort, perhaps even suggesting to accompany them to school until you feel more at ease.

𝐕𝐈. Upon learning about your anxiety about school, she might become even more possessive and controlling, closely observing your actions and striving to protect you from any perceived sources of stress or harm. This could materialise in behaviors like relentless attention, overzealous protective measures, or efforts to detach you from potential stress factors. She might even go to drastic lengths to ensure your presence at school, resorting to manipulation or coercion if necessary.

𝐕𝐈𝐈. Her protective instincts would kick into high gear. She would likely become extremely possessive and controlling, striving to keep them nearby and shield them from any harmful situations or triggers. She would probably take on an excessively involved role in their life, insisting on accompanying them to school and employing all means possible to prevent them from taking a break from studying.

“i love you， i love you， i love you. we're soulmates， you and i， but that doesn't mean it works. my soul can't bear to be without yours but that doesn't mean it works.”

@dystopyx-blog collab heh.

[junker-town]

BYU has become one of college football’s steadiest programs, for better and worse

The Cougars aren’t moving down, but they aren’t moving up either. Yet.

This preview published May 8 and has since been updated.

The completion of the 2016 college football season gave me 12 full years of play-by-play data (2005-16) to use for my S&P+ ratings. The number of teams in FBS has varied throughout that time period, but ranking among the top 55 has always assured a spot in the upper half of the rankings.

Twelve teams have ranked in said upper half in all 12 seasons:

Boise State (best: first in 2010, worst: 54th in 2005)

BYU (best: ninth in 2006; worst: No. 54th in 2011)

Clemson (best: second in 2015 and 2016; worst: 41st in 2011)

Florida (best: first in 2006 and 2009; worst: 33rd in 2011 and 2013)

Florida State (best: first in 2013; worst: 50th in 2008)

LSU (best: first in 2011; worst: 24th in 2008)

Ohio State (best: first in 2014; worst: 35th in 2011)

Oklahoma (best: first in 2008; worst: 27th in 2013)

Penn State (best: fourth in 2005; worst: 52nd in 2013)

TCU (best: fifth in 2009; worst: 50th in 2013)

USC (best: first in 2005; worst: 34th in 2009)

Wisconsin (best: 10th in 2009 and 2011; worst: 42nd in 2006)

Alabama (57th in 2007) couldn't pull it off. Georgia's (68th in 2016) and Oregon’s (74th) both ended last year.

55th isn't the highest bar, but for the most part this is a pretty accurate list of college football's steadiest programs. It includes nearly every non-Bama champion since 2006 (Florida, LSU, Florida State, Ohio State, and now Clemson). It includes the Big 12's (Oklahoma) and Pac-12's (USC) heaviest heavyweights. It features the two programs that have done the mid-major power thing better than anybody else (Boise State and former mid-major TCU). It includes two Big Ten programs (Wisconsin and Penn State) that have combined for six conference titles or co-titles in the last 12 years.

The list also includes BYU.

It’s time for my BYU preview, which means it’s time for my annual existential look at the BYU football program.

2015:

No matter what portion of history you want to view -- last five, 10, 30, 50 years -- BYU's résumé compares favorably to at least half of the power-conference universe, probably more. [...]

I think this independence thing is going to work. Now the Cougars need to keep winning their share of these big games.

2016:

In five years as an independent, BYU never won fewer than eight games and three times ranked in the S&P+ top 40. [...]

In a revealing offseason interview, Bronco Mendenhall said he didn't think BYU's football independence was viable long-term. And in what may have been a surprising response, AD Tom Holmoe more-or-less agreed. But whatever "long-term" means, BYU is attempting to prove itself with brutal early-season scheduling. [...]

The Sitake hire is fiercely important for the future. Sustainable for 50 years or not, BYU is independent right now and has a chance to prove itself in 2016 and beyond.

Status and future, status and future, status and future. Every team preview touches on these things to some degree, but BYU previews are incredibly formulaic in that regard. But it’s hard to avoid talking about it. When BYU’s own AD admits that the future is blurry, you talk about it.

But a preview is also going to become formulaic when the team itself becomes rather consistently formulaic. The Cougars almost always rank between 40th and 80th in Off. S&P+ and between 25th and 50th in Def. S&P+. And in six seasons as an independent, they are 14-17 against Power 5 teams, 8-8 against the best mid-majors, and 30-1 against everybody else.

In 2016, they went 3-3, 1-1, and 5-0, respectively.

If you wanted to, you could simply look at BYU’s schedule, which features four power conference opponents, one top mid-majors, and eight others, and casually predict a 10-3 record (2-3 against good teams, 8-0 against the others) and call it a day. You might be right to do so. But stopping there isn’t really my m.o.

Perhaps the fact that 2016 was a ‘typical’ BYU season was a positive sign. After all, the Cougars were breaking in a first-time head coach (Kalani Sitake), a first-time college offensive coordinator (Ty Detmer), and a first-time defensive coordinator (Ilaisa Tuiaki). They were also dealing with a redesigned receiving corps and a potentially awkward quarterback situation (2014’s starter and 2015’s starter both returning).

Last year’s Cougars looked so much like a BYU team under completely new guidance might have been a hint of further upside down the line. That they lost four games by a combined eight points reinforces that.

If you can withstand turnover and maintain your previous level of play, you might be well-positioned for growth. But BYU has established one of the most stable reputations in the country. What growth is possible? There are worse things in the world than consistently playing at a top-40ish level. But can Sitake bring something more to Provo?

2016 in review

2016 BYU statistical profile.

The typical BYU indie schedule features big names in September, medium names in October, and lesser names late. That is certainly the case this coming fall — five of the first seven opponents are projected 45th or better in S&P+, and each of the last six are 100th or worse — and it was the case last fall. September featured Arizona, Utah, UCLA, West Virginia, and Toledo. November featured Southern Utah and UMass.

If BYU were ever to make a run at an undefeated season and CFP-level bid, it would be interesting to see how this unfolds. A 12-0 or 13-0 BYU season would feature big wins in September and likely a high-ranking debut in the CFP rankings. It would then feature some leakage as big P5 teams knock each other off, and BYU seemingly beats UMass each week.

But we’re not there yet. So far, BYU Septembers have featured tight, competitive games that affirm the Cougars as a top-40 program but add blemishes to the loss column. That was certainly the case in 2016.

Of the first eight games of 2016, seven were against teams in the S&P+ top 60, and seven were decided by one possession — in some instances, the final play. BYU went 4-4 in these games, then surged against four lesser opponents. Adjusting for opponent, the level of play didn’t change all that much throughout; BYU was a little better late but was mostly the same team, at least on offense.

First 8 games (4-4): Avg. percentile performance: 57% | Avg. yards per play: Opp 6.0, BYU 5.3 (minus-0.7)

Last 5 games (5-0): Avg. percentile performance: 73% | Avg. yards per play: BYU 5.6, Opp 4.6 (plus-1.0)

With an athletic advantage, BYU’s defense started to look like BYU’s customary defense. The offense, meanwhile, remained about the same. With Tanner Mangum taking back over for Taysom Hill as starting quarterback, there’s potential for change, better or worse.

Offense

Full advanced stats glossary.

Ty Detmer finished his legendary BYU playing career with 15,031 passing yards and minus-366 rushing yards. He was elusive at times and did score 14 rushing touchdowns, but he wasn’t what one might call a dual-threat.

It would stand to reason, then, that he might find it pretty natural working with Mangum.

That’s not to say he didn’t find a decent rhythm with Hill in 2016, his first year in charge of the BYU attack. BYU’s success rate improved from 61st to 37th in success rate with the oft-injured dual-threat, and Detmer found a decent balance between employing the pass and utilizing Hill’s mobility — Hill attempted 32.8 passes per game (including sacks as passes) while rushing 9.7 times, a ratio of 3.4 passes for every rush.

Mangum made his debut in 2015 when Hill got hurt; his pass-to-run ratio: 14.4. Mangum moved back to the second string in 2016, receiving most of his action in a blowout win over Southern Utah and in a bowl monsoon against Wyoming. But combined with the loss of leading rusher Jamaal Williams and the top three receivers, the identity of the BYU is going to change pretty dramatically this fall, one way or another.

The junior-to-be will turn 24 at the beginning of the season; this will be the first time he enters a season expecting to start. As a freshman in 2015, he experienced the drastic ups and downs you might expect from a high-upside passer. Against UCLA, Michigan, and Utah, he produced a 92.0 passer rating with a 51 percent completion rate; against Nebraska, Boise State, and Utah State, he was at 171.4 and 58 percent, respectively.

If experience leads to stability ... actually, let rephrase that. Experience better lead to stability because after a late-August warmup against Portland State, Mangum will face the LSU, Utah, and Wisconsin defenses consecutively. Utah State, Boise State, and Mississippi State await after that. That’s a lot of impressive defensive personnel right there.

There’s good news and bad news regarding the supporting cast. We’ll make a good/bad news sandwich:

Bad news: Jamaal Williams is gone. The running back had a breakout senior year alongside Hill, rushing for 1,375 yards with above average efficiency and awesome explosiveness. He was basically BYU’s only big-play weapon last year, and while backups Squally Canada and KJ Hall matched him from an efficiency standpoint, they brought nowhere near the explosiveness to the table. If the Cougars can find a role for bouncy junior Trey Dye, that might help open things up a bit. Regardless, no go-to option emerged this spring.

Good news: Most of the line returns. Eight linemen started at least two games last year, and six return. Four seniors have combined for 92 career starts (including three-year starting center Tejan Koroma), and youngsters like sophomore tackle Thomas Shoaf have potential. Throw in high-three-star redshirt freshman Kieffer Longson and JUCO transfer John Taipe Vaka, and you’ve likely got yourself an awesome two-deep. [Update: The Cougars also added James Empey, a former Utah signee who’s returning from his mission, and Notre Dame four-star center Tristen Hoge, who’s hoping to be eligible this year.]

Bad news: One returning wideout caught more than 11 passes last year. Last year’s top three (Nick Kurtz, Mitchell Juergens, Colby Pearson) are gone, and while they didn’t bring just a ton of upside to the table, they did combine for a 65 percent catch rate. BYU has all the tight ends it could want (namely Moroni Laulu-Pututau and Tanner Balderee), but the Cougars lost three of their top four WRs last year, too. It’s hard to avoid at least temporary regression when you double dip.

BYU almost perfectly average last year when it comes to run-pass rates on standard and passing downs. One assumes Detmer might want to lean more on the pass, but that will depend on whether he has the receivers to do so.

Defense

Sitake is rarely associated with bad defenses, and BYU was at least half-awesome on defense in 2016. The Cougars were as dynamic as ever against the run, ranking seventh in Rushing S&P+ and 14th in Adj. Line Yards. Opponents almost never carved out more than four yards at a time on BYU, and if they couldn’t pass, they couldn’t move the ball.

If they could pass, though, they probably moved the ball just fine. BYU ranked 77th in Passing S&P+. UCLA, West Virginia, Toledo, and Boise State combined for a 160.2 passer rating, a 72 percent completion rate, and 33.3 points per game (and went 3-1) against the Cougars. Everybody else: 116.5 passer rating, 59 percent completion rate, 13.4 points per game, and a 1-8 record.

BYU was ultra-young at cornerback, so this makes some sense. Dayan Ghanwoloku and Troy Warner were two of the top three, and they were both freshmen. So were reserves Chris Wilcox and Austin McChesney. Ghanwoloku and Warner combined for 14 passes defensed, which is an encouraging sign of upside (as are their recruiting rankings — Ghanwoloku was high-three-star, Warner four).

That upside is important, as they’ll be without Kai Nacua, a play-maker and security blanket at free safety. Seniors Micah Hannemann and Matt Hadley are back, but youngsters like sophomore Austin Lee and four-star freshman Chaz Ah You could be in the rotation sooner than later.

More importantly, four of the top five linemen are also gone. There’s plenty of physically imposing talent remaining — junior end Corbin Kaufusi (6’9, 285 pounds), junior tackle Tevita Mo’Unga (6’3, 330), senior tackle Kesni Tausinga (6’1, 300), plus everybody’s favorite freshman, 417-pound Motekiai Langi — but this will be a greener unit.

That means an experienced linebacking corps will be asked to clean up some messes. Fred Warner, Butch Pau’u, and Francis Bernard (combined: 23 TFLs, five sacks, seven interceptions, nine breakups, four forced fumbles) might be dynamic enough to do just that.

Special Teams

Losing Garrett Juergens means losing both a solid possession receiver and an efficient punt returner. He was a key piece of BYU’s 20th ranked special teams unit, but at least Jonny Linehan is back. The New Zealander and former rugby player averaged 42.5 yards per punt with minimal returns. Just keep him out of ill-advised fake punts, and he’s a major weapon. Kicker Rhett Almond, meanwhile, is at least strong inside of 40 yards.

2017 outlook

2017 Schedule & Projection Factors

Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 26-Aug Portland State NR 37.1 98% 2-Sep vs. LSU 4 -18.5 14% 9-Sep Utah 45 2.3 55% 16-Sep Wisconsin 11 -11.3 26% 29-Sep at Utah State 73 4.0 59% 7-Oct Boise State 29 -1.5 47% 14-Oct at Mississippi State 30 -6.3 36% 21-Oct at East Carolina 100 11.6 75% 28-Oct San Jose State 105 18.1 85% 4-Nov at Fresno State 115 14.9 81% 11-Nov at UNLV 118 15.5 81% 25-Nov Massachusetts 111 19.2 87% 25-Nov at Hawaii 109 13.8 79%

Projected S&P+ Rk 46 Proj. Off. / Def. Rk 83 / 23 Projected wins 7.4 Five-Year S&P+ Rk 9.4 (29) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 55 / 67 2016 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* 12 / 8.8 2016 TO Luck/Game +1.2 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 52% (34%, 70%) 2016 Second-order wins (difference) 9.1 (-0.1)

It’s possible that the biggest loss of 2016 happened off the field. BYU’s directionless — not bad, just neither up nor down — independent existence made Cougar administrators and faithful hopeful that a Big 12 bid would come soon. But as I wrote in my recent Houston preview, if you’re counting on the Big 12 to light your way forward, your plan is flawed. The Big 12 once again elected to do a bright, flaming pile of nothing.

Granted, cord-cutting might lead to a shift in what drives conference realignment in the future, but needless to say, the Big 12 is no more well-positioned to exist in the future than it was a year ago. And barring a drastic change in the Pac-12’s plans, that means BYU either remains independent or move to a Group of 5 conference.

For the short term, that means independence. It means splitting with a few major conference teams and finishing each season with a run of wins over smaller programs and playing in a minor bowl. There are worse existences, to be sure.

Even though BYU rarely changes in terms of overall quality, there’s at least potential for change, one way or the other. On the pessimistic side, BYU’s running game is starting over, a passing quarterback has to break in new receivers, and the defensive line is rebuilding.

On the optimistic side, though, Mangum is an experienced, potentially steady hand with a good line in front of him, the secondary is more seasoned than it was last year, and a Sitake front seven is almost always disruptive, no matter the experience. I lean optimistic, but wow, is that early stretch of opposing defenses impressive. How much of a load can Mangum carry early on?

BYU is projected 46th in S&P+, though that’s a little artificially low because it doesn’t take Mangum’s 2015 experience into account and just sees Hill’s lost production. So basically, adjust for that, and BYU’s looking at a No. 50-75 offense and a No. 20-30 defense. And probably eight to 10 wins. Same old, same old, huh?

Team preview stats

All power conference preview data to date.

[junker-town]

BYU has become one of college football’s steadiest programs, for better and worse

The Cougars aren’t moving down, but they aren’t moving up either. Yet.

The completion of the 2016 college football season gave me 12 full years of play-by-play data (2005-16) to use for my S&P+ ratings. The number of teams in FBS has varied throughout that time period, but ranking among the top 55 has always assured a spot in the upper half of the rankings.

Twelve teams have ranked in said upper half in all 12 seasons:

Boise State (best: first in 2010, worst: 54th in 2005)

BYU (best: ninth in 2006; worst: No. 54th in 2011)

Clemson (best: second in 2015 and 2016; worst: 41st in 2011)

Florida (best: first in 2006 and 2009; worst: 33rd in 2011 and 2013)

Florida State (best: first in 2013; worst: 50th in 2008)

LSU (best: first in 2011; worst: 24th in 2008)

Ohio State (best: first in 2014; worst: 35th in 2011)

Oklahoma (best: first in 2008; worst: 27th in 2013)

Penn State (best: fourth in 2005; worst: 52nd in 2013)

TCU (best: fifth in 2009; worst: 50th in 2013)

USC (best: first in 2005; worst: 34th in 2009)

Wisconsin (best: 10th in 2009 and 2011; worst: 42nd in 2006)

Alabama (57th in 2007) couldn't pull it off. Georgia's (68th in 2016) and Oregon’s (74th) both ended last year.

55th isn't the highest bar, but for the most part this is a pretty accurate list of college football's steadiest programs. It includes nearly every non-Bama champion since 2006 (Florida, LSU, Florida State, Ohio State, and now Clemson). It includes the Big 12's (Oklahoma) and Pac-12's (USC) heaviest heavyweights. It features the two programs that have done the mid-major power thing better than anybody else (Boise State and former mid-major TCU). It includes two Big Ten programs (Wisconsin and Penn State) that have combined for six conference titles or co-titles in the last 12 years.

The list also includes BYU.

It’s time for my BYU preview, which means it’s time for my annual existential look at the BYU football program.

2015:

No matter what portion of history you want to view -- last five, 10, 30, 50 years -- BYU's résumé compares favorably to at least half of the power-conference universe, probably more. [...]

I think this independence thing is going to work. Now the Cougars need to keep winning their share of these big games.

2016:

In five years as an independent, BYU never won fewer than eight games and three times ranked in the S&P+ top 40. [...]

In a revealing offseason interview, Bronco Mendenhall said he didn't think BYU's football independence was viable long-term. And in what may have been a surprising response, AD Tom Holmoe more-or-less agreed. But whatever "long-term" means, BYU is attempting to prove itself with brutal early-season scheduling. [...]

The Sitake hire is fiercely important for the future. Sustainable for 50 years or not, BYU is independent right now and has a chance to prove itself in 2016 and beyond.

Status and future, status and future, status and future. Every team preview touches on these things to some degree, but BYU previews are incredibly formulaic in that regard. But it’s hard to avoid talking about it. When BYU’s own AD admits that the future is blurry, you talk about it.

But a preview is also going to become formulaic when the team itself becomes rather consistently formulaic. The Cougars almost always rank between 40th and 80th in Off. S&P+ and between 25th and 50th in Def. S&P+. And in six seasons as an independent, they are 14-17 against Power 5 teams, 8-8 against the best mid-majors, and 30-1 against everybody else.

In 2016, went 3-3, 1-1, and 5-0, respectively.

If you wanted to, you could simply look at BYU’s schedule, which features four power conference opponents, one top mid-majors, and eight others, and casually predict a 10-3 record (2-3 against good teams, 8-0 against the others) and call it a day. You might be right to do so. But stopping there isn’t really my m.o.

Perhaps the fact that 2016 was a ‘typical’ BYU season was a positive sign. After all, the Cougars were breaking in a first-time head coach (Kalani Sitake), a first-time college offensive coordinator (Ty Detmer), and a first-time defensive coordinator (Ilaisa Tuiaki). They were also dealing with a redesigned receiving corps and a potentially awkward quarterback situation (2014’s starter and 2015’s starter both returning).

Last year’s Cougars looked so much like a BYU team under completely new guidance might have been a hint of further upside down the line. That they lost four games by a combined eight points reinforces that.

If you can withstand turnover and maintain your previous level of play, you might be well-positioned for growth. But BYU has established one of the most stable reputations in the country. What growth is possible? There are worse things in the world than consistently playing at a top-40ish level. But can Sitake bring something more to Provo?

2016 in review

2016 BYU statistical profile.

The typical BYU indie schedule features big names in September, medium names in October, and lesser names late. That is certainly the case this coming fall — five of the first seven opponents are projected 45th or better in S&P+, and each of the last six are 100th or worse — and it was the case last fall. September featured Arizona, Utah, UCLA, West Virginia, and Toledo. November featured Southern Utah and UMass.

If BYU were ever to make a run at an undefeated season and CFP-level bid, it would be interesting to see how this unfolds. A 12-0 or 13-0 BYU season would feature big wins in September and likely a high-ranking debut in the CFP rankings. It would then feature some leakage as big P5 teams knock each other off, and BYU seemingly beats UMass each week.

But we’re not there yet. So far, BYU Septembers have featured tight, competitive games that affirm the Cougars as a top-40 program but add blemishes to the loss column. That was certainly the case in 2016.

Of the first eight games of 2016, seven were against teams in the S&P+ top 60, and seven were decided by one possession — in some instances, the final play. BYU went 4-4 in these games, then surged against four lesser opponents. Adjusting for opponent, the level of play didn’t change all that much throughout; BYU was a little better late but was mostly the same team, at least on offense.

First 8 games (4-4): Avg. percentile performance: 57% | Avg. yards per play: Opp 6.0, BYU 5.3 (minus-0.7)

Last 5 games (5-0): Avg. percentile performance: 73% | Avg. yards per play: BYU 5.6, Opp 4.6 (plus-1.0)

With an athletic advantage, BYU’s defense started to look like BYU’s customary defense. The offense, meanwhile, remained about the same. With Tanner Mangum taking back over for Taysom Hill as starting quarterback, there’s potential for change, better or worse.

Offense

Full advanced stats glossary.

Ty Detmer finished his legendary BYU playing career with 15,031 passing yards and minus-366 rushing yards. He was elusive at times and did score 14 rushing touchdowns, but he wasn’t what one might call a dual-threat.

It would stand to reason, then, that he might find it pretty natural working with Mangum.

That’s not to say he didn’t find a decent rhythm with Hill in 2016, his first year in charge of the BYU attack. BYU’s success rate improved from 61st to 37th in success rate with the oft-injured dual-threat, and Detmer found a decent balance between employing the pass and utilizing Hill’s mobility — Hill attempted 32.8 passes per game (including sacks as passes) while rushing 9.7 times, a ratio of 3.4 passes for every rush.

Mangum made his debut in 2015 when Hill got hurt; his pass-to-run ratio: 14.4. Mangum moved back to the second string in 2016, receiving most of his action in a blowout win over Southern Utah and in a bowl monsoon against Wyoming. But combined with the loss of leading rusher Jamaal Williams and the top three receivers, the identity of the BYU is going to change pretty dramatically this fall, one way or another.

The junior-to-be will turn 24 at the beginning of the season; this will be the first time he enters a season expecting to start. As a freshman in 2015, he experienced the drastic ups and downs you might expect from a high-upside passer. Against UCLA, Michigan, and Utah, he produced a 92.0 passer rating with a 51 percent completion rate; against Nebraska, Boise State, and Utah State, he was at 171.4 and 58 percent, respectively.

If experience leads to stability ... actually, let rephrase that. Experience better lead to stability because after a late-August warmup against Portland State, Mangum will face the LSU, Utah, and Wisconsin defenses consecutively. Utah State, Boise State, and Mississippi State await after that. That’s a lot of impressive defensive personnel right there.

There’s good news and bad news regarding the supporting cast. We’ll make a good/bad news sandwich:

Bad news: Jamaal Williams is gone. The running back had a breakout senior year alongside Hill, rushing for 1,375 yards with above average efficiency and awesome explosiveness. He was basically BYU’s only big-play weapon last year, and while backups Squally Canada and KJ Hall matched him from an efficiency standpoint, they brought nowhere near the explosiveness to the table. If the Cougars can find a role for bouncy junior Trey Dye, that might help open things up a bit. Regardless, no go-to option emerged this spring.

Good news: Most of the line returns. Eight linemen started at least two games last year, and six return. Four seniors have combined for 92 career starts (including three-year starting center Tejan Koroma), and youngsters like sophomore tackle Thomas Shoaf have potential. Throw in high-three-star redshirt freshman Kieffer Longson and JUCO transfer John Taipe Vaka, and you’ve likely got yourself an awesome two-deep.

Bad news: One returning wideout caught more than 11 passes last year. Last year’s top three (Nick Kurtz, Mitchell Juergens, Colby Pearson) are gone, and while they didn’t bring just a ton of upside to the table, they did combine for a 65 percent catch rate. BYU has all the tight ends it could want (namely Moroni Laulu-Pututau and Tanner Balderee), but the Cougars lost three of their top four WRs last year, too. It’s hard to avoid at least temporary regression when you double dip.

BYU almost perfectly average last year when it comes to run-pass rates on standard and passing downs. One assumes Detmer might want to lean more on the pass, but that will depend on whether he has the receivers to do so.

Defense

Sitake is rarely associated with bad defenses, and BYU was at least half-awesome on defense in 2016. The Cougars were as dynamic as ever against the run, ranking seventh in Rushing S&P+ and 14th in Adj. Line Yards. Opponents almost never carved out more than four yards at a time on BYU, and if they couldn’t pass, they couldn’t move the ball.

If they could pass, though, they probably moved the ball just fine. BYU ranked 77th in Passing S&P+. UCLA, West Virginia, Toledo, and Boise State combined for a 160.2 passer rating, a 72 percent completion rate, and 33.3 points per game (and went 3-1) against the Cougars. Everybody else: 116.5 passer rating, 59 percent completion rate, 13.4 points per game, and a 1-8 record.

BYU was ultra-young at cornerback, so this makes some sense. Dayan Ghanwoloku and Troy Warner were two of the top three, and they were both freshmen. So were reserves Chris Wilcox and Austin McChesney. Ghanwoloku and Warner combined for 14 passes defensed, which is an encouraging sign of upside (as are their recruiting rankings — Ghanwoloku was high-three-star, Warner four).

That upside is important, as they’ll be without Kai Nacua, a play-maker and security blanket at free safety. Seniors Micah Hannemann and Matt Hadley are back, but youngsters like sophomore Austin Lee and four-star freshman Chaz Ah You could be in the rotation sooner than later.

More importantly, four of the top five linemen are also gone. There’s plenty of physically imposing talent remaining — junior end Corbin Kaufusi (6’9, 285 pounds), junior tackle Tevita Mo’Unga (6’3, 330), senior tackle Kesni Tausinga (6’1, 300), plus everybody’s favorite freshman, 417-pound Motekiai Langi — but this will be a greener unit.

That means an experienced linebacking corps will be asked to clean up some messes. Fred Warner, Butch Pau’u, and Francis Bernard (combined: 23 TFLs, five sacks, seven interceptions, nine breakups, four forced fumbles) might be dynamic enough to do just that.

Special Teams

Losing Garrett Juergens means losing both a solid possession receiver and an efficient punt returner. He was a key piece of BYU’s 20th ranked special teams unit, but at least Jonny Linehan is back. The New Zealander and former rugby player averaged 42.5 yards per punt with minimal returns. Just keep him out of ill-advised fake punts, and he’s a major weapon. Kicker Rhett Almond, meanwhile, is at least strong inside of 40 yards.

2017 outlook

2017 Schedule & Projection Factors

Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 26-Aug Portland State NR 37.1 98% 2-Sep vs. LSU 4 -18.5 14% 9-Sep Utah 45 2.3 55% 16-Sep Wisconsin 11 -11.3 26% 29-Sep at Utah State 73 4.0 59% 7-Oct Boise State 29 -1.5 47% 14-Oct at Mississippi State 30 -6.3 36% 21-Oct at East Carolina 100 11.6 75% 28-Oct San Jose State 105 18.1 85% 4-Nov at Fresno State 115 14.9 81% 11-Nov at UNLV 118 15.5 81% 25-Nov Massachusetts 111 19.2 87% 25-Nov at Hawaii 109 13.8 79%

Projected S&P+ Rk 46 Proj. Off. / Def. Rk 83 / 23 Projected wins 7.4 Five-Year S&P+ Rk 9.4 (29) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 55 / 67 2016 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* 12 / 8.8 2016 TO Luck/Game +1.2 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 52% (34%, 70%) 2016 Second-order wins (difference) 9.1 (-0.1)

It’s possible that the biggest loss of 2016 happened off the field. BYU’s directionless — not bad, just neither up nor down — independent existence made Cougar administrators and faithful hopeful that a Big 12 bid would come soon. But as I wrote in my recent Houston preview, if you’re counting on the Big 12 to light your way forward, your plan is flawed. The Big 12 once again elected to do a bright, flaming pile of nothing.

Granted, cord-cutting might lead to a shift in what drives conference realignment in the future, but needless to say, the Big 12 is no more well-positioned to exist in the future than it was a year ago. And barring a drastic change in the Pac-12’s plans, that means BYU either remains independent or move to a Group of 5 conference.

For the short term, that means independence. It means splitting with a few major conference teams and finishing each season with a run of wins over smaller programs and playing in a minor bowl. There are worse existences, to be sure.

Even though BYU rarely changes in terms of overall quality, there’s at least potential for change, one way or the other. On the pessimistic side, BYU’s running game is starting over, a passing quarterback has to break in new receivers, and the defensive line is rebuilding.

On the optimistic side, though, Mangum is an experienced, potentially steady hand with a good line in front of him, the secondary is more seasoned than it was last year, and a Sitake front seven is almost always disruptive, no matter the experience. I lean optimistic, but wow, is that early stretch of opposing defenses impressive. How much of a load can Mangum carry early on?

BYU is projected 46th in S&P+, though that’s a little artificially low because it doesn’t take Mangum’s 2015 experience into account and just sees Hill’s lost production. So basically, adjust for that, and BYU’s looking at a No. 50-75 offense and a No. 20-30 defense. And probably eight to 10 wins. Same old, same old, huh?

Team preview stats

All preview data to date.