#insurgence of russia

[global-politics]

Is Unipolar World Order Coming to an End?

China as the Rising Super Power Is Unipolar World Order Coming to an End: We are seeing China get ever closer to joining the US as a world super power. We had a long unipolar moment that began after the ed of the Cold War and has lasted till now. China’s economic performance demonstrates that it is really close to becoming a super power. Its military modernization is relentless and we not be far off from the moment when the unipolar power comes to an end. China’s tremendous amount of capital that it can deploy in so many ways is something the US can not do. Similarly, the Chines BRI is such a milestone for the world order and international relations. This is something which China could do. More research articles

The current situation of Multipolarity

On one hand we have a level of multipolarity at play in which you have a number of the other powers that are able to assert themselves often aggressively, as we saw Russia. That’s simply something that the US has not been able to stop. I would argue that the rise of China has led to a situation where Beijing has been able to develop partnerships with a number of countries who for many years had good relations with the US.

Moreover, China, although its vehicle of infrastructure and investments has been able to push back at that helps for sure. You can see in that regard that the US’s efforts to build a good consensus and coalition to push back China has only had limited success. You have so many countries around the world including in the West and EU that value their trade relations with China. They would not imperil their relationship with China for the US efforts to counter the Chinese led Power.

In addition to this, I would also argue that there’s somewhat similar dynamics with Russia. The US has been trying to make this global effort to impose sanctions on Russia and isolate it. But it had a limited effect because many countries including EU are heavily dependent on Russia for energy. I think until those countries which are so reliant on Russia are able to find an alternate, the US is going to have limited efforts of leading from the front and getting the world to unite against countering Russia. That’s a reflection of the fact that you have other major powers that have been able to develop these important commercial relationships.

Pakistan relationship with the US

Pakistan’s relationship with the US has been very volatile. I would argue that a key development occurred last August when the US left Afghanistan. The perception in Pakistan is correct that the US officials viewed Pakistan from the lens of Afghanistan. Ever since the US left and relocated their embassy, there has been a drift in relationship. It’s been on hold. It’s been unsettled. It has been in search of a new anchor for a relationship that it has been unable to find. You could argue that this is an area of cooperation.

Moreover, there has been a bit of bad blood with the developments of the last 2 3 months with the Imran Khan’s allegations of a US conspiracy. The new government will allow some of that rhetoric to dissipate al least on official level and allow for a space for the future cooperation. The relationship has suffered some blows. The new PM of Pakistan has offered conciliatory messages and so has the US government responded. I do believe that Washington will have a high comfort level working with Shehbaz Sharif than with Imran Khan because of the allegations Imran Khan made.

Furthermore, just a quick side note, the Pak-US relationship was not always bad under Imran Khan’s rule. He made a very successful visit to the President Trump in the White House a few summers ago. Donald Trump had asked Imran Khan to negotiate and bring the Taliban to negotiations wit the US. It was only in recent months when President Joe Biden infamously did not call Imran Khan and things got worse. I do agree that in past, the US, Pakistan relations has been what some would call as Imperial. There frequently has been meddling in Pakistan’s domestic politics. If you look at the US had done in terms of the drone strike campaigns, the efforts to track down Bin Laden with a fake vaccination campaign. I understand why Pakistan are certainly skeptical and suspicious of the US policies. In Washington, there is certainly acknowledgment of that. But I do think that the relationship can come around and overcome the problems of the last 3 months. But my sense is that Imran Khan will continue to hold on to that narrative of a US led effort to oust him.

US Influence in South Asia

When the US plays a democracy card, it is more critical of the countries that are not allies or strategic partners pf the US. But New Delhi has been a bit concerned about what the Biden Administration had said about India. Including the 2+2 dialogue that happened in the Washington 2 months ago in which the Foreign Affairs and defense officials of both the countries met to talk about security and diplomacy. Antony Blinken, the US Secretory of State, made this concern about human rights record (of India). But I think this is a separate question from the larger question of how the US sees South Asia and how it sees what China is up to and what Russia is up to.

In addition to this, it’s very interesting, I think that South Asia has become a major battle field for India-China competition and also for the China-US competition. China is Washington top foreign policy concern. When the US has tended to accord to Asia, it has looked at East Asia. That’s because the US top treaty allies are there like Japan and South Korea. It’s also East Asia where China has been doing stuff that concerns the US. Mostly its provocation in the South China Sea that directly impacts key US partners and allies. Now that we see China deepening its relationship, not only with Pakistan but also its commercial presence in the region including in the countries where traditionally, India had been a key external player. I think that we have seen in recent times and what we will see more in future is the US trying to bring most of the countries in South Asia under its Indo-Pacific strategy.

Final point on this is the Russia factor. South Asia is a region where Russia has no enemies. Half of the SAARC countries abstained from the first General Assembly resolution condemning the Russia invasion. Russia has been able to develop a soft power in many countries of South Asia. Not only in India but also in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka and many other countries which is serious threat to the US made unipolar World Order in the South Asia.

[zvaigzdelasas]

Thoughts on if the USA will pass Israel 'aid' separate from Ukraine 'aid'?

Think the Dems would much rather give concessions on the border wall or abortion rights than allow anything to impede either war, think GOP would rather force concessions on the border wall or abortion rights than to do anything more than huff and puff about Ukraine

[germiyahu]

Maybe an ethnostate is an inherently dangerous and immoral idea. What has happened when other people tried to establish ethnostates?

Well firstly, Israel is not an ethnostate. There is no equivalent policy of Israelification or Judaification as there was (tbh is) with Russification, or historic and contemporary Arabization, Modi's attempts at Hindutva, Erdogan's extreme backsliding into ethnonationalism, etc.

Israel is a liberal democratic state. Some Arabs rejected citizenship, as is their right to do so on principled grounds. But most other groups who are not Israeli Jews have implicitly accepted the Social Contract of a modern liberal democratic state. They receive equal rights under the Law (which is enforceable), and they're aware that they're not the majority and that not every aspect of their culture will cater to them or center them.

Most of the country coming to a standstill on Shabbat could be a sign of an ethnostate, but if municipalities don't want to observe Shabbat, there are no enforceable laws that allow anyone to stop them from ignoring Shabbat. And if there are/were, they were much more frequently levied against other Jews.

Israel has historically not cared if its non Jewish citizens practice their own faiths, speak their own languages, observe their own cultural traditions. Jews do not proselytize. If Israel truly were an ethnostate we'd see a repeat of the Edomites being forcibly converted by John Hyrcanus. The reason this hasn't happened is not because Jews are "disgusted" by Palestinians, for the record. A majority of Israeli Jews look identical to Palestinians and historically spoke Judeo-Arabic. It's simply not necessary for any government to function to pursue an assimilationist policy. It's not a priority among any stream of Judaism or any sub-cultural group of Jews.

People's discomfort with a Jewish majority state, that utterly and thoughtlessly centers Jewish culture (through symbols, the calendar, the weekly/monthly/yearly cycle, holidays, etc.) is rooted in antisemitism. Because it's abhorrent to see Jews running the show. It's new, it's weird, it's even a little insulting. It's not the Natural Order of things. It's unfair. This is a primal Judenhass gene being activated, and it applies to everything related to Jews. There's an inherent hypocrisy in most people when it comes to Jews.

Even in a country like Japan which is considered by fascists to be an Ethnostate, that belies the diversity of the country. An ethnostate is not a state with a majority or supermajority of one ethnicity, nor is it a state that has implicit biases toward that majority ethnic group. An ethnostate must legally uphold the supremacy of the ethnic group in question and at best make no attempt to extend equal rights to any minorities. At worst, it will attempt to assimilate them or exterminate them.

Secondly, what happens in real genuine ethnostates? Well to name a few examples: the Apartheid system of Imperial Russia, with the accompanying pogroms that led to the collapse of the Pale of Settlement which ushered in the largest Jewish migration in history. The effects of this system are still being felt today, not just by Jews. The whole reason Putin and most Russians feel entitled to Ukrainian land and feel threatened by a Ukrainian identity is because Russification considered Russians Belarussians and Ukrainians the same people (which meant Belarussians and Ukrainians were to be forcibly assimilated by Russians).

Here's another example: Kurds in Turkey are still not considered a legally recognized ethnic group. They can't even spell their own names correctly because they have letters in their alphabet that do not occur in Turkish, and Turkish is the only language of state (Turkey as a modern state was heavily influenced by France and it shows). Kurds are routinely suspected of being PKK members and whole towns were bulldozed to make room for Syrian refugees, as a collective punishment against the Kurdish insurgency (which restarted amid the war with ISIS).

Saudi Arabia is an ethnostate, as are most of the Gulf Monarchies. Citizenship is a privilege only enjoyed by the Khaleeji Arabs, even though they're a minority in most of their own countries. Palestine is also an ethnostate, citizenship and rights are only offered to those who are deemed Palestinians. Nobody else is allowed to live there. The Israelis who illegally live in the West Bank have to be propped up by a military occupation and have to have Israeli laws stretched over the border to encompass them, because they would not ever be allowed to even live in the West Bank, much less be afforded any rights or citizenship. This is not just Palestine's fault, this was a precedent set by Jordan. The oldest of all Jewish communities in Palestine were all cleansed by Jordanian troops, banished from their lands and never allowed to return.

I hope you can see that ethnostates are not very compatible with liberal democracies, as liberal democracies by definition and by tradition have universal human rights (at least in the West). It is authoritarian and totalitarian regimes that typically strive for an ethnostate. There are shades of ethnostatitude in democracies, such as France, which uses civic identity as the privileged "ethnicity," and that civic identity happens to be French, which means everyone must be culturally French and speak French. Though it's not violently enforced there is a state policy of ignoring all minorities and their cultures. And of course Turkey, which has always been a flawed democracy, but is increasingly becoming dictatorial and wouldn't you know, the more authoritarian it becomes, the more Turkishness is a central component of Erdogan's goals and policies.

Are there Israelis who want Israel to be an ethnostate? Why yes, but are they significant or relevant beyond appointing Ben-Gvir as a token gesture to this radical fringe? Not really, though there's an alarming capacity for them to increase their numbers. Is any of that relevant to the daily functions and moral "core" of Israel as a nation? Not at all. If you don't judge any other state by it's worst most obnoxious most supremacist actors, why judge Israel that way? Is it those Judenhass Genes again?

[warsofasoiaf]

What are your thoughts on the Donbass war (2014-2022)? Were the separatists russian puppets or the expression of (parts) of the local population? And what’s your views on the non-implementation of the Minsk agreement ?

The separatists were Russian proxies, full stop. The tapes from Glazyev clearly prove that, and opinion polls in those provinces show that even in Crimea, native Russian weren't enthusiastic on the idea of being annexed or controlled by Russia. Hence, the rebellion was largely manufactured out of whole cloth, and when paid demonstrations failed, Russia responded with importing irregulars to pose as native separatists. Here is an exhaustively well-researched report on exactly what went down with that, and when even irregulars failed, Russia had no choice but to launch its own invasion with its regular forces in 2014.

The idea of a "Donbas genocide" or "Donbas shelling" is a myth. It's a blatantly revisionist take that argues that while the Russian-led separatist forces were allowed to attack and shell the Ukrainians (more casualties were caused by Russians and Russian-led separatists), Ukraine was not allowed to defend itself or conduct counter-insurgency operations against an insurgency in its own territory.

The idea that "the Minsk agreements secured peace, but Ukraine refused to implement it" is likewise false. For one, Russia also habitually failed to implement its own provisions, conducting its own rigged elections in Donetsk and Luhansk contrary to the stated provisions of Minsk. For two, all foreign groups, i.e. Russia's imported forces, were to be removed, and they weren't. For three, Ukraine was supposed to have full sovereignty over its border, which Russia routinely transgressed to resupply its forces. It also blatantly broke the ceasefire to seize more territory. Russia pretended that it held no control over the separatist forces, but that was a transparent lie - repeated investigations and even testimony from the separatists themselves said that they took orders from Moscow.

Pretty much all the arguments are largely post-facto justifications to support Russian deniable asset wars. For all the claims of the Euromaidan being a "CIA-sponsored color revolution" (pro-tip: if someone uses those words unironically, you don't have to take anything they say seriously, they're just an unthinking consumer of Russian disinformation), the "Donbas separatists" were actually far closer to what that operation would be like in reality - imported agitators to create a false appearance of a separatist movement with military support to overthrow an existing government.

Thanks for the question, Anon.

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King

[mapsontheweb]

The Polish revolts of the 19th century

🇵🇱 "Wielki atlas historyczny", éd. Demart, Varsovie, 2023

by cartesdhistoire

In 1815, the Congress of Vienna gave Russia the majority of Polish territories called the "Kingdom of the Congress". Krakow, which benefits from the Austro-Russian rivalry, is independent.

In 1830, when the Tsar decides to send Polish troops to fight the revolutionary troubles in France and Belgium, an uprising broke out in Warsaw, and then wins the entire kingdom. The "November uprising" quickly turns into open war, which the insurgents finally lose, who lack foreign support and that of small peasantry.

Then, Patriotic Actions (June 11 & Nov 29) 1860) murderous repressions (February 27th. and April 8, 1861). In October 1862, the head of the civil government announces an uprising of recruits, which primarily affects patriotic activists. This raft marks the beginning of an uprising, generalized but disorganized; evolving into a guerrilla, it is crushed by the Russian army (January). 1863 - June 1864).

The kingdom already lost in 1841, its currency, the złoty, to the benefit of the ruble, then, in 1847, the Napoleon code to the benefit of Russian law and, in 1849, its system of weight and measurements ceased to exist. It is directly incorporated into the Russian empire as the "Vistula Country", a purely geographical name that emphasizes the will to deny its Polish character. Many insurgents are deported to Siberia and their lands confiscated. Russian becomes the official language, all universities are russified, Orthodox Christianity is promoted state religion. The Catholic Church sees its property confiscated, its monasteries closed, its bishops jailed or deported (there hasn't been a single in 1872) and a huge Orthodox Cathedral is built in the heart of Warsaw. A drastic police regime makes any form of cultural activism or armed uprising impossible.

In the Prussia Grand Duchy of Poznan, an uprising took place in the spring of 1848. After his failure, the autonomy, already limited, of the Grand Duchy is abolished.

[wartakes]

Firewatch (March 2024 edition, Part 2)

(This is Part 2 of my innagural edition of "Firewatch" becuase I was dumb and didn't realize what the character limit is. Read Part 1 here). Full piece beneath the cut.

Smoldering Embers

These are the conflicts that, while not yet to the point where the flames are rising and heating up, smoke is starting to billow (or has been billowing) and there's potential for a real blaze to suddenly flare up at a moment's notice. You may have heard about them in the news here and there, but they're likely only popping up for your attention once in a blue moon because they haven't gotten bad or dramatic enough yet to fully grab the world's attention amid everything else going on.

West Africa/Sahel

The Sahel regions of West Africa are no stranger to crisis and conflict. Multiple countries in the region have already been dealing with internal political discord and armed conflict for years, but now multiple factors and various players seem to be converging in this part of Africa, positioning it to take a number of different paths forward in the coming months and years – few of which look very good.

West Africa and the Sahel are feeling a series of different pressures converging all at once. Since 2020, the region has seen a historic number of coup d'etats – both failed attempts and successful ones – which often come with a large amount of public support amid frustration with institutions and leaders that appear to be failing them. One reason for this frustration (among others that should be unsurprising, like economic troubles) is increasing amounts of instability throughout the region. Affiliates of both Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State both have footholds in the region, and are engaged in insurgencies against the governments of Mali (its most recent coup being in 2021, and also fighting a simultaneous insurgency by Tuareg separatists), Burkina Faso (most recent coup in 2022), and Niger (most recent coup in 2023), with Nigeria also dealing with a well over-decade old insurgency against Bokho Haram.

Niger's coup last year, in particular, seems to have been a watershed moment for the region and beyond. The country was strategically important both for its mineral resources (which unsurprisingly have not translated into economic and social development for the people of Niger themselves) and as a geographically well positioned outpost both for France (who's colonial legacy hangs heavily over the region) and the Untied States and other foreign powers, who all had troops stationed in the country to conduct counter-terrorism operations. The coup was seen as serious enough that the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) issued an ultimatum to the Nigerien junta this past summer, threatening that if it did not cede power back to the elected President that ECOWAS would intervene to restore the legitimately elected government (as it has in the past).

Ultimately, the ECOWAS threats have not come to fruition and don't seem likely to – despite some apparent moves to do so in the aftermath of the coup. But out of those threats, Niger has joined into a new political and military alliance called the Alliance of Sahel States with both Burkina Faso and Mali (all of which had been suspended from ECOWAS due to their respective coups) to provide for collective self-defense against foreign intervention. Since 2023, French troops have been forced out of both Burkina Faso and Niger – with Niger now seemingly on the verge of doing the same to the remaining US troops in the country, while Vladimir Putin's Russia has seemingly been on a charm offensive to befriend the members of new alliance signing economic and military agreements and even reportedly dispatching troops – with mercenaries such as those from Wagner already having been active in the area (now operating under the new name of the "Africa Corps").

All these factors and more combined suggest that things in the Sahel are liable to get very interesting in the near future. As stated before, a number of different paths seem to unfold ahead for the region: if the ongoing radical insurgencies continue and are victorious, we could see a new territorial caliphate in West Africa and the Sahel mirroring that of IS in Iraq and Syria in the 2010s (and all the horrors that came with it). Barring that, as Russia deepens its ties to the AES, it could further turn the region into even more of a battleground in the multilateral Cold War we find ourselves in (as Russia is not the only authoritarian power seeking to deepen its influence in West Africa, as Turkey under Recep Tayyip Erdogan is also attempting to get involved there). Those are only two potential options out of many, and the myriad of other options in a region that is heavily populated and on the radar of multiple great powers means that it bears continued monitoring going forward.

The Democratic Republic of the Congo/Rwanda

Now this is one that I imagine is probably flying under the radars of most people who aren't deeper into my field, but is probably one of the most immediately pressing in Africa. The Democratic Republic of the Congo has been fighting against a rebellion by the armed group known as "M23" in its East for a decade now – that much isn't new. But now the conflict is threatening to turn onto a state-on-state war in Africa's Great Lakes region, as M23's primary back of neighboring Rwanda seemingly steps up its direct involvement into the conflict.

Rwanda has been backing M23 for some time now, with both Rwanda's government (under long-time President Paul Kagame) and M23 itself being primarily led by members of the Tutsi ethnic group. Rwanda also has a history of armed interventions in the DRC as well, so that in itself is not new. But in recent months the long-running tensions and low-level conflict between the DRC and Rwanda has threatened to boil over into outright, full-scale war, amid a series of fresh escalations – one prominent example being Rwanda firing on a DRC fighter-jet that it claimed violated its airspace. The high level of tensions has been further evidenced by more direct US involvement recently than is typically seen in this part of the world, with the United States and other governments attempting to broker some kind of peaceful resolution between the DRC and Rwanda. These efforts do not seem to have made much headway, with this past month the United States resorting to publicly urging both the DRC and Rwanda to "walk back from the brink of war." US mediation efforts may well be undermined, however, by it's (and many other Western countries') cozy relationship with Rwanda – despite its autocratic leader.

The trajectory for the current crisis remains unclear. A sideline meeting during the African Union summit in the Ethiopian capital of Addis Ababa appeared to make some progress in at least getting both the DRC and Rwanda to sit at one table and discuss a return to a peaceful dialogue to resolve their differences. However, that same day, the DRC accused Rwanda of having launched a drone attack in the city of Goma – a key objective of M23's advances, seemingly pouring cold war on the idea of constructive and peaceful reconciliation for the time being. Most recently, the DRC appears to be acquiring drones of its own, with China reportedly set to supply the DRC with nine CH-4 armed drones (apropos of nothing, China has also supplied a fair amount of military hardware to Rwanda in recent years, as well as military training).

With little other news available on the crisis since February (with other global events taking precedence), it remains unclear where things with the DRC and Rwanda go from here. There have been reports that the DRC and Rwandan leaders may be preparing to meet face-to-face once more, through mediation by Angola. At the same time, little seems to have changed with the personalities at play. DRC President Felix Tshisekedi was recently re-elected (under conditions labeled a "farce" by the DRC opposition), and has previously taken a hard line on the crisis, threatening to "march on Kigali" if re-elected and the issues with Rwanda persist. The DRC's acquisition of drones from China seems to reinforce that it has no plans of backing down in its confrontation with M23 and Rwanda, even if Tshisekedi doesn't follow through on his more bellicose threats. Meanwhile in Rwanda, Kagame announced his intent to seek a fourth term as President – amid criticism for lifting term limits in order to stay in office longer (criticisms that he has made clear he cares very little for if at all), and so has an impetus to maintain his own hard-line on issues with the DRC.

A further ticking clock has been added to the DRC-Rwanda situation by the fact that the United Nations mission in the Congo – which has been assisting the DRC fight against rebels (including M23) for almost two decades – will now be leaving the DRC by the end of 2024 at the request of the DRC government, stating that the force had not been able to resolve the war with M23. This comes after the DRC government also ordered troops from the East African Community (EAC) that had been present in the country as well to leave in late 2023 – for the same reasons it ordered the UN force to leave. While the DRC may well be right that neither force has helped it to beat M23, the withdrawal of these troops may very well shift the entire balance of the conflict and not necessarily in a way that the DRC wants. The South African Development Community (SADC), led by South Africa itself, is seeking to fill the gap left by the UN and EAC, but it remains to be seen how quickly they can do so and if they can change facts on the ground any more than the UN or EAC could. Once again, we see a number of potential factors on a collision course, and while cooler heads may still prevail, we see the prospect of yet another major war in the heart of Africa's Great Lakes regions that could have significant impacts for the people of the region, the continent, and the world. It is definitely worth keeping an eye on this developing situation (to the extent you can even find news on it).

Ethiopia

Ethiopia, like Myanmar, is a country that has shown up in the past when I've done a round-up on pertinent conflicts in the world. However, unlike with Myanmar, I'm afraid I can't report that things are getting better in Ethiopia's case or that there's much cause for hope at this point. In fact, things seem to be getting actively worse.

The last time I substantively talked about Ethiopia, the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was engaged in a war in the Tigray region against the Tigray People's Liberation Force – even allying with his former long-time adversary of Eritrea to do so in a war that threatened to rip the country apart while engaging in brutal authoritarian actions that I'm sure are making the Nobel Committee really regret giving him that prize in retrospect. After a seesawing of the fortunes of war back and forth for both sides, the conflict was seemingly brought to a close by the signing of a peace agreement between the TPLF and the Ethiopian federal government. All's well that ends well, done and dusted, right?

Well, actually: no.

Just less than a year after the Tigray War ended, Abiy apparently tripped over his dick into a new internal conflict in mid 2023, this time with Amhara people and forces in the eponymous Amhara region (Ethiopia's second most populous) rather than Tigray. The spark for this conflict was apparently born out of the haphazard way in which Abiy ended the previous one. One of Abiy's key allies in the Tigray War were militias and security forces from the region of Amhara, including an influential armed group known as the "Fano." However, the peace deal that Abiy struck with Tigray did not sit well with many Amahara people, who felt betrayed by the deal due to Tigray claims on their territory (as well as the fact that the Ethiopian federal military and security forces had been unable to prevent the TPLF from occupying Amahara territory during the war). This rift was only made worse by crackdowns by Abiy's government against the Fano, coupled with a plan to absorb Ethiopia's regional security forces into Ethiopia's federal military and security forces, which was not received well among the Amhara. These tensions and more came to a head from April through August 2023, with the result being Abiy's government facing down a fresh and ongoing revolt that doesn't appear to be ending soon.

The result of this bridge burning by Abiy has been a growing war in Amhara occurring under the umbrella of an ever prolonged state of emergency in Amhara that gives Ethiopian authorities broad powers to carry out arrests, impose curfews, and ban public gatherings. This is a continuation of the Abiy's playbook of gross human rights violations from the previous war in Tigray, with accusations being leveled against his government of arbitrary arrests, extrajudicial executions, and indiscriminate killings – including indiscriminate drone strikes against targets such as schools and public transit stations (apropos of nothing, once more, Abiy has acquired his fleet of armed drones from Iran, Turkey, and China – as well as purchasing new fighter jets from Russia). If you're wondering why you haven't heard more about all this, its because Abiy has made heavy handed use of another favorite tactic of his from the previous war (and that it has even used against Amhara in the past), which is information and specifically internet blackouts, which make it very difficult to get information out of Amahara as the conflict drags on (as it did in Tigray during that war).

Abiy's uncanny knack for burning bridges and making enemies isn't limited to within his own country, but has made tensions rise throughout East Africa. At the start of 2024, Abiy signed an agreement with the breakaway region of Somaliland in Somalia, which reportedly gives Ethiopia a naval port on Somaliland's coastline in exchange for recognizing the region's independence from Somalia (something that no other UN member state does). All of this appears to be part of Abiy's quest to regain Ethiopian access to the sea (lost after Eritrea became independent), which has included efforts to re-establish the Ethiopian Navy. The reaction to this deal has been, unsurprisingly, poorly received in Somalia, with Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud even threatening the possibility of war if Ethiopia follows through with it and accusing Ethiopia of outright trying to annex part of Somalia. Somalis are not the only ones unease about Ethiopia's quest for access to the Red Sea, with other East African states such as Djibouti, Eritrea, and Kenya all having previously voiced concern about Ethiopian actions.

There's also the matter of Ethiopia's previously mentioned issues with Egypt over the Nile River, in particular Ethiopia's construction of a massive hydroelectric dam known as the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (or "GERD") on the river that Egypt worries could have a devastating effect on its water supply downstream if Ethiopia acts without considering Egyptian concerns. Despite numerous efforts to come to an agreement over the dam and the river, every attempt thus far has ended in failure, with Egypt continuing to refer to GERD an "existential threat." Egypt has also made it clear that it stands squarely with Somalia regarding the sea access debacle, with Egypt's autocratic President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi asserting that "Egypt will not allow anyone to threaten Somalia or affect its security," creating a fresh avenue for tension between Egypt and Ethiopia in addition to the GERD issue. This is all in addition to concerns that both Egypt and Ethiopia could be drawn into the aforementioned civil war in Sudan, with numerous potential negative consequences for all involved.

The long and short of things when it comes to Ethiopia, is you have no shortage of opportunities for more intense conflict in the near future, both within and around the country. Abiy's continued heavy handed approach to both domestic and foreign politics creates an ever increasing possibility that one day he will bite off more than he can chew, and potentially spark a conflict of such scale and scope that it could engulf all of East Africa in a major war and potentially even destroy Ethiopia – the second most populous country in Africa – as a polity. Given the potential consequences, this is a part of the world meriting very close observation going forward.

"Do You Smell Something Burning?"

In this final section, I want to touch briefly (as I've already gone on for a few thousand words) on some hot spots in the world that are cause for concern and have been for a while, but have nothing major going on at this moment in time. While they may be quiet (at least relatively speaking, compared to everything else we've just talked about), they have the potential to spark up in the mid to long term and become a problem once again.

The Korean Peninsula

By this point, we're probably all used to North Korea (under its dictator, Kim Jong-Un) shooting off missiles and making bellicose statements. That's par for the course for them. But in recent months, Kim and his government's rhetoric have taken a new and more hostile turn. North Korea has stated it has abandoned the idea of peaceful unification with the South, instead naming it North Korea's "principal enemy" which it will "annihilate" if it is provoked. This comes as North Korea continues weapons tests and conducts multiple military drills – with Kim often in attendance.

While I wouldn't worry about a continuation of the (yet unresolved) Korean War just yet, this may well be cause for concern. While tensions are typical on the Peninsula, we haven't seen rhetoric like this from the North in quite some time. And while full-scale war may be unlikely at this moment (though not impossible), 010 showed us that under the right conditions, the Peninsula is never far from violent skirmishes and incidents between the two Koreas, such as the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island and sinking of the South Korean Navy corvette Cheonan. While wider conflict was avoiding in those cases, now that South Korea has a more reactionary President wanting to present a hard line towards the North, it raises questions about it may react to provocation. Again, while I wouldn't be panicking just yet, it may be worth keeping your ear to the ground on this one to keep from being caught unawares if tensions suddenly spike further.

Armenia and Azerbaijan

Well, they finally did it. I've also written about this conflict several times now, and it looks like by all accounts, Azerbaijan has gotten exactly what it said it wanted. After the world stood by and did largely nothing in its 2020 war against the ethnic-Armenian enclave of Artsakh (AKA: Nagorno-Karabakh), Azerbaijan decided to finish the job once and for all with a fresh offensive on the heels of a nine-month blockade this past year. With next to no prospect of outside assistance, and weakened by the blockade, the Artsakh forces quickly folded, and almost the entirety of the ethnic Armenia population promptly fled in the ensuing days and weeks to avoid violence at the hand of Azeri forces, leaving Azerbaijan free to complete its cultural genocide of the region. But now that its over, surely Armenia and Azerbaijan can find a way to live in peace with this new reality? Right?

Ha ha, no.

In what should be surprising to absolutely no one, Azerbaijan has celebrated getting what it wanted in Artsakh by shifting the goal post once more. Now its new demand is a land corridor connecting it to its ethnic exclave of Naxcivan on the opposite side of Armenia – referred to as the "Zangezur Corridor" (after the Azeri name for the Armenian Syunik province that it would pass through). Armenia seems highly unlikely to agree to such a demand, which it views as an unacceptable infringement on its sovereignty, which likely means – as has been the case after every war fought between these two countries in the past – a new war is almost certainly on the horizon as Azerbaijan will not stop until an outside force compels it to stop and will use the Armenian rejection as an excuse for fresh conflict. 2024 has already seen fresh skirmishes on the border between the two countries, showing that the tensions remain very much present.

It's not clear when this new war will occur, but we can only hope that in the interim more nations step up to actually assist Armenia. We have seen hopeful signs of greater support from other countries, with France and India selling arms to the country to help it defend itself. However, I can't take any of that for granted, with how the world has left Armenia out to dry time and time again. If Azerbaijan does decide to go to war for a land corridor, it also risks potentially sparking a wider regional war, as Iran has called such an action to cut off its land border with Armenia a "red line" (though whether or not it would really take military action in response remains unclear). Anyway, keep your ears to the ground on this one, because like with the other wars Azerbaijan has launched it'll likely come out of the blue.

I'm Very Tired.

I've just thrown a lot of information at you, so I'm going to try and keep this conclusion short and sweet (for me). First, I'll lay out a few takeaways about the wider world situation, and then some general closing thoughts.

Looking at the general state of things with the conflicts I've laid out, I'm going to infer a few things about the general state of global security. For one, Africa is in a dire state in multiple regards and seems to be the biggest place to watch for trouble on the horizon at the moment, as it has several crises that seem ready to boil over into major wars in the near future – if they haven't already in some cases. These crises and conflicts have the potential to pit some of the most populous countries on the continent against one another, and also to rip some of those same countries apart internally. Short of that, Africa is also seemingly getting teed up to be the sight of a new round of intense great power competition for influence and resources the likes of which we haven't seen since the Cold War, with said competition not just involving big players like the United States, Russia, or China, but attracting newcomers to the influence game too – as the UAE's involvement in Sudan's civil war has shown. Finally, it's also worth noting that now that we're in a post-Russian invasion of Ukraine world where large scale state-on-state conflict is back on the menu after many "experts" thinking it was dead and gone, it makes some of the fault lines we're watching here even more important to keep a close eye on.

There's almost certainly more that I say here, but these are just some big overarching themes to take away from this round of observation. Now, for the closing thoughts:

I know you're tired. We all are. I am.

That being said, we can't give up in our fight for a better world for everyone living in it. That requires remaining well informed (to the extent that you're able) about what's going on in that world. This is especially true if your government is playing a role in it (for good or for bad), or it isn't and it should be. Information is, in its own right, power.

I know that your emotional energy is precious, and likely being eaten up but a number of different things at any given moment. I'm not ask you to drop everything and devote all your time and energy to these causes or others, nor am I trying to shame you for not paying as close attention to them as I or others have. Simply, to add them to the Rolodex of your brain as something that matters and that you should check in on once in a while so you're not caught unawares when new developments occur that may affect you and others.

There's only so much that all of us can do about any one issue, either at home or abroad. But we do what we can, and in order to do that, we need to have an idea of what's going on. So take that as you will after reading all this (or anything else that I write or post, for that matter).

On that note, I'll let you get back to whatever else you need to do. But thank you for taking the time to read this and potentially learn more about events you may not have known much about and their potential impacts. I'll hopefully see you again for my next essay, but in the meantime: stay safe out there and don't give up.

Photo credit: africanews/AFP.

[dasha-aibo]

It's been two years since Russia started a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

This war did not start two years ago. It started in 2014. First with the annexation of Crimea, then with the rise of Kremlin-backed insurgents in Donbass.

I do not care to hear how "Ukraine provoked it" or about "NATO expansion".

Right now Europe is seeing the biggest war on its home turf since the Yugo mess. I'm pretty sure by this point it's even bigger.

All because Russia felt "threatened". Because people treated Russia like it was going to attack them. So Russia... Attacked them.

But the war has ran into a long and gridning stalemate. And it's unlikely things will change soon. Hundreds of thousands of lives have already been claimed on both sides. Thousands more will follow.

Years from now, this will be viewed as one of the greatest tragedies of our generation. But right now nobody seems to even care anymore.

And I understand why. I'm not delusional. I know how the news cycle fatigue impacts people.

I just wish there was something, ANYTHING I could do to end it all. To return it all back to how it was 10 years ago.

But this seems unlikely now.

The war has already changed Russia and Ukraine alike. Ultimately, no one will emerge victorious. The scars of this mess will last for decades, if not centuries.

And everything else just feels hollow and pointless.

[odinsblog]

MALIAN SOLDIERS AND foreign fighters, identified as members of the Russia-linked Wagner Group, have committed extrajudicial executions and forced disappearances of dozens of civilians in central Mali since December 2022, according to a new Human Rights Watch report shared with The Intercept. Researchers found that the longtime U.S.-backed Malian military also tortured detainees in an army camp and destroyed and looted civilian property as part of its protracted campaign against militant Islamists.

The Malian soldiers committed the atrocities in four villages in the center of the country, according to telephone interviews with 40 people knowledgeable about the abuses, half of them witnesses to the violence. Witnesses told Human Rights Watch that foreign, non-French-speaking armed men whom they described as “white,” “Russians,” or “Wagner” participated in most of the attacks.

In December 2021, the Malian junta reportedly authorized the deployment of Wagner mercenary forces to fight Islamist militants after close to two decades of failed Western-backed counterterrorism campaigns in exchange for almost $11 million per month and access to gold and uranium mines. Since then, Wagner — a paramilitary group led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, a former hot dog vender turned warlord — has been implicated in hundreds of human rights abuses alongside the country’s military, including a 2022 massacre that killed 500 civilians.

Human Rights Watch’s new findings add to the grim toll.

“We found compelling evidence that the Malian army and allied foreign fighters linked to the Wagner group have committed serious abuses, including killings, enforced disappearances and looting, against civilians during counter-insurgency operations in central Mali with complete impunity,” Ilaria Allegrozzi, the senior Sahel researcher at Human Rights Watch, told The Intercept. “The failure of the Malian authorities to identify and prosecute those responsible will most likely only fuel further violence and crimes.”

(continue reading)

[catgirlforeskin]

Sorry, but some of the notes on posts about elections are absolutely awful.

"Remember that if post induces sense of anger and hopelessness without providing solutions then it's a psyop", bitch we provide solutions, but they are hard and risky because it's literally unfucking worldwide system that existed for centuries if not millennia, and we all know that to this you will respond "that's scary, I don't like it, I would rather vote". Like I hugely disagree with people who call democratic achievements in women's rights or POC rights or queer rights "not inherently proletarian and therefore acceptable to capitalist regime", but absolutely all of it was (and is) conquered by insurgency, not bestowed for being good citizens.

You just know that they would obey racial hygiene because "well I personally don't agree but disobedience is scary".

And "if voting didn't work then they wouldn't try to convince you" is literally conspiracy thinking, like "why would every institution insist on the Earth being round if it was obvious?".

The fact that it's safer for Democrats to move as right as possible until they are noticeably worse than Republicans is literally the logic of profit maximisation. They are businessmen, they understand it pretty well.

Also, they call not voting for Biden "a Russian psyop", but also like, both the start of war with Ukraine and the invasion of 2022 happened during Democratic reign, under Trump it was a complete stalemate. I wouldn't draw a lot of conclusions from this, but Putin also said that he would prefer Biden. Trump is allegedly planning to stop military aid for Ukraine and I am not sure that it's good for us (like until either Russia or NATO are incapable of being at war with each other we are at risk of becoming a battleground once again, but also it may end with our surrender because Russia clearly can win against ALL of NATO, and NATO may not be interested in Eastern Europe to launch a whole intervention).

And can I remark how bullshit viewing elections as the only way to do things? My country aside from not having elections this time doesn't have a party that is at least somewhat close to my ideals. Russian opposition is also big on "voting as protest" but like 6 years ago the government spent tons of money on propaganda of voting for anyone. One Russian "Marxist-Leninist" group is saying that it's not about literal votes it's about making connections with people who come to vote, but when I pointed out how bullshit it sounds and benefits the government I was blocked from their chat as well

Yeah it’s always from a place of “well yeah if you’re [insert long list of marginalized people] then both parties hurt you the same, but I might lose some of MY crumbs of imperial superprofits if the other guy wins! Why can’t you just shut up about genocide and do what benefits meeee?”

[imaginedrago-ss]

szo many ppl on my dash celebrating lenin do u guys ever think abt how after tge bolsheviks gained control of russia in the october revolution they invaded ukraine & turned their guns on & defeated tge insurgent anarchist communist peasants that had helped them drive the right wing white army out of crimeea & then later the red army broke the treaty of brest litovsk 2 invade what remained of ukraine & turn it into a part of the ussr & tgen in the 1930s under stalin in order 2 properly industrialize tge ussr ukranian peasants were starved in a manmade famine & as result of taht industrialization nuclear reactors were built incuding cernobyl in ukraine & in 1944 crimean tatars were focibly deported from their land bc of da "treacherous nature" of their ethnicity, & in 2014 russia invaded ukraine 2 annex crimea, & in 2022 on tge 24th of february (which btw in eastern europe is valentines day & the birthday of ppl named dragoș) russia launched a full scale invasion of ukraine tahts still ongoing & more civilians die every day unironically do u think abt it at all i see u all reblog da giant lenin statues how many of u think abt the ppl who built those statues & abt what their children & grandchildren have lived thru

[transgenderer]

im kind of sympathetic to the idea that we should stop funding ukraine because like its lengthening the war, and people will die, and that's bad, but like...i think the idea that its lengthening the war is kind of...confused? like, if ukraine was not being funded, they would not just like. become part of russia. there would be insurgencies, indefinitely. there would, in all likelihood, be attempted wars of independence. pre-2022 borders seem 1) plausible, 2) less likely to lead to more war. i think theres a strong argument that funding ukraine is the *anti* war position!

[shirkers2018dirsanditan]

the rhetoric of the war on terror really did succeed in planting the idea that islam-oriented violent groups, be they insurgents like ISIS, al-qaeda, al-shabab, al-nusra, etc or political entities like the taliban, hamas, or hezbollah, engage in violence against civilians because of islam and not because everyone else does. they want you to cheer as the us or israel or russia (in syria) carpetbomb civilians and lie about it and not make the connection that it was that kind of wanton violence that fomented these groups in the first place. they want you to think al-qaeda killed all those people on 9/11 solely because of islam and a hatred of freedom, and not because the united states spent decades killing civilians across africa and asia. what these groups fail to realize though is that western imperialist nations don’t care about their citizens at all, neither civilian nor military. and they never have.

[project-71]

Welcome everyone to our little project - Alpha-71!

(Or Alphaverse, as we like to call it)

Featuring modern-day combat/warfare, more than one hell, furries, monsters, war and terrorism, Alpha-71 revolves around the story of Alpha-71, a Private Military Company (PMC) and it's most valuable team, Bravo Team. Also known as The Headhunters.

But we still have a lot to uncover to know how Alpha-71 formed, how their members got to where they are, and who the other organizations, armies, terrorists groups and cults are.

But first, let me introduce you to the main three factions of the Alphaverse:

ALPHA-71

Our protagonists. Initially formed from rogue AERO operators as a Task Force specialized in Counter-Terrorism and "Peacekeeping", Alpha-71 soon grew as years passed and converted to a Private Military Company.

Feared by their ruthless and merciless tactics, Bravo Team AKA The Headhunters are the top of the chart in Alpha-71's ranks. Conformed from operatives from various countries, some new, some since the funding of Alpha-71, The Headhunters are the tip of the spear and the best soldiers money can buy.

With a mysterious and anonymous leader known only as "Alan", Alpha-71 is mostly run by him from the shadows. Some are curious and skeptical of "Alan" being a real person, from his last sighting being almost more than two decades ago, As a former AERO operator.

But who or what is AERO? You may ask.

AERO

(Heavily inspired by the SCP Foundation, converted to our own little thing for creative freedom)

The Anomalous Entity Research Organization (AERO) has been around for more than sixty years, protecting, abducting and making sure civilians don't see the ugly side of nature.

AERO started as a branch of the UN Peacekeeping Forces in 1947 but voted to be separated into an independent organization in 1956, making it 77 years old. (68 as an independant organization)

Locking up anomalous individuals for either research, termination or cooperation, the ranks of AERO are made up of Cooperative Anomalous Individuals (C.A.I.), former special forces and/or secret service operators, which most of them are working in complete anonymity provided by the organization itself.

Equipped with cutting-edge technology and gear, AERO operators are fearsome and intimidating by their advantages in technology during a Human-Human-Encounter or the most common one, A Human-Anomaly-Encounter. Most if not all of this gear comes from MAЯ (Multi-National Armory Resources).

EXPURGATION INSURGENCY

Classified as a terrorist group, the Expurgation Insurgency (E.I.) is a cultist group with still unknown beliefs. Spies planted by Alpha-71 and/or AERO have documented their members being forced to attend to rituals where they are suspected to summon anomalous individuals.

Their agents are cultists, though most of their low-level soldiers are exchanged soldiers from countries they occupy. They usually settle in devolping and/or corrupt countries as these countries are less likely to strike them down. Sometimes forming diplomatic/military relations with the countries they occupy. Stablishing supply lines of gear for their soldiers.

If they want to have some kind settlement in countries that don't want them, they will try to overthrow it, mostly happens in countries which have some kind of anti-goverment rebellion that aligns with the Insurgent's apparent ideology (or maybe just their needs at the moment) such as during the events of Operation Valkleim Down where they help the Cartel take over the country, not only giving them access to the Sea Of Azov but also headquarters in the heart of Eastern Europe for expansion of underground operations in Ukraine and mainland Russia.

•🦈 Main Character bios coming next post! •🐱

[beardedmrbean]

The mass killings took place on Feb. 25 in the country's northern villages of Nondin and Soro, and some 56 children were among the dead, according to the report. The human rights organization called on the United Nations and the African Union to provide investigators and to support local efforts to bring those responsible to justice.

“The massacres in Nondin and Soro villages are just the latest mass killings of civilians by the Burkina Faso military in their counterinsurgency operations,” Human Rights Watch Executive Director Tirana Hassan said in a statement. “International assistance is critical to support a credible investigation into possible crimes against humanity.”

The once-peaceful nation has been ravaged by violence that has pitted jihadis linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State group against state-backed forces. Both sides have targeted civilians caught in the middle, displacing more than 2 million people, of which over half are children. Most attacks go unpunished and unreported in a nation run by a repressive leadership that silences perceived dissidents.

The HRW report provided a rare firsthand account of the killings by survivors amid a stark increase in civilian casualties by Burkina Faso’s security forces as the junta struggles to beat back a growing jihadi insurgency and attacks residents under the guise of counterterrorism.

Earlier in April, The Associated Press verified accounts of a Nov. 5 army attack on another village that killed at least 70 people. The details were similar — the army blamed the villagers for cooperating with militants and massacred them, even babies.

Witnesses and survivors told HRW that the Feb. 25 killings were believed to have been carried out in retaliation for an attack by Islamist fighters on a military camp near the provincial capital Ouahigouya, about 25 kilometers (15 miles) away.

The toll of civilian deaths was higher than first described by local officials. A public prosecutor previously said that his office was investigating the reported deaths of 170 people in attacks carried out on those villages.

A Burkina Faso government spokesperson didn’t respond to requests for comment about the Feb. 25 attack. Officials previously denied killing civilians and said jihadi fighters often disguise themselves as soldiers.

More than 20,000 people have been killed in Burkina Faso since jihadi violence linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State group first hit the West African nation nine years ago, according to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, a United States-based nonprofit.

Burkina Faso experienced two coups in 2022. Since seizing power in September 2022, the junta led by Capt. Ibrahim Traoré has promised to beat back militants but violence has only worsened, analysts say. Around half of Burkina Faso’s territory remains outside of government control.

Frustrated with a lack of progress over years of Western military assistance, the junta has severed military ties with former colonial ruler France and turned to Russia instead for security support. 

[zvaigzdelasas]

Edmonton police have charged the editor of a left-wing Alberta news outlet with mischief after a controversial [sic] statue of a Ukrainian military commander was defaced last year.

Duncan Kinney, 39, was charged with mischief under $5,000 "in relation to an August 2021 incident that occurred at a Ukrainian complex in the area of 96th Street and 153rd Avenue," Edmonton Police Service spokesperson Carolin Maran told CBC News Tuesday night.

Kinney is expected to appear in court on Nov. 10.

Last August, the words "Actual Nazi" were written in red paint on the statue of Roman Shukhevych at the Ukrainian Youth Unity Complex.

During the same week, a memorial in St Michael's Cemetery near 138th Avenue and 82nd Street was also defaced, with the words "Nazi Monument 14th Waffen SS". 

Shukhevych's role in the military has fallen under increased scrutiny [sic] over his actions in leading the Ukrainian Insurgent Army during the Second World War and the deaths of tens of thousands of Belarusians, Jews, Poles and Ukrainians.

The Friends of Simon Wiesenthal Center for Holocaust Studies has called for the removal of the memorials, stating that they honour "Nazi collaborators and war criminals."[...]

In a public statement, four Ukrainian organizations said they were thankful for the police's work "investigating and making an arrest for the trespassing and defacing of our monument of Ukrainian military commander Roman Shukhevych."

In a statement Tuesday, the Edmonton branch of the Ukrainian Canadian Congress said it was pleased that an arrest was made.

"We thank the Edmonton Police Service for their thorough investigation of this matter and call on all law enforcement agencies to redouble their efforts to investigate and prosecute the spate of harassment and violence against Ukrainian Canadians since Russia's invasion of Ukraine," the congress said in a statement.

In a statement Tuesday, the Ukrainian Canadian Civil Liberties Association described the vandalism as a "hate-crime hoax" that stoked social discord and fear among Canadian Ukrainians.

"We believe all Canadians have the right to enjoy their property without being subjected to intimidation or threats," the statement said.

25 Oct 22

[mariacallous]

Despite attempts by President Vladimir Putin and Russia's state-controlled media to pin the blame for Friday's deadly Moscow theatre attack on Ukraine, more details are emerging about the jihadist group IS-K that has claimed it was behind it.

Who or what is IS-K?

IS-K is an abbreviation of Islamic State-Khorasan - a regional affiliate of the Islamic State group, which has been proscribed as a terror organisation by governments across the world.

It is focused on Afghanistan, Iran and Pakistan and into Central Asia.

The group has given itself the name Khorasan as that was part of an historic Islamic caliphate spanning that region.

IS-K has been around for nine years but in recent months it has emerged as the most dangerous branch of the Islamic State group, with a long reach and a reputation for extreme brutality and cruelty.

Along with what is left of the group's wider leadership in Syria and Iraq, IS-K aspires to a pan-national Islamic caliphate ruled through an ultra-strict interpretation of Sharia, Islamic law.

In Afghanistan it is waging a sporadic but still deadly insurgency against the country's rulers, the Taliban, who it opposes on ideological grounds.

Has IS-K carried out attacks before?

It targeted the chaotic evacuation from Kabul airport in 2021 with a suicide bomb, killing 170 Afghans and 13 US servicemen.

The following year it targeted the Russian embassy in Kabul, killing at least six people and injuring others.

The group has carried out indiscriminate attacks on a maternity ward, bus stations and policemen.

In January this year, IS-K carried out a double bombing of a shrine in Kerman, Iran, killing nearly 100 Iranians.

In Russia it has carried out numerous small-scale attacks, the most recent being in 2020 - and already this year the FSB, Russia's internal security service, says it has stopped several terror plots.

Who were the Moscow attackers?

According to Russian state media the four men captured and charged are all Tajiks from the Central Asian republic of Tajikistan, which used to be part of the Soviet Union.

It is obvious from their battered and bruised appearance in court that they have been especially harshly interrogated to the point of torture.

The problem with that is according to international norms, their confessions will be worthless - people will say anything to make the pain stop, including confessing to a narrative that is simply untrue.

Reports have emerged that one of the men was seen carrying out surveillance of the venue in early March, around the time the US warned Russia there was an imminent threat of a terrorist attack on a public space - a warning the Kremlin dismissed at the time as "propaganda".

Another report says at least two of the attackers arrived in Russia recently, implying that this was a "hit team" sent by IS-K, rather than a sleeper cell of residents.

Why did they target Russia?

There are several reasons.

IS-K consider most of the world to be their enemies. Russia is high up on their list, along with the US, Europe, Israel, Jews, Christians, Shia Muslims, the Taliban and all rulers of Muslim-majority states, who they consider to be "apostates".

Islamic State's hostility to Russia goes back to the Chechen wars in the 1990s and early 2000s, when Moscow's forces devastated the Chechen capital Grozny.

More recently, Russia entered the Syrian civil war on the side of its ally, President Bashar al-Assad, and the Russian air force has carried out countless bombings of rebel and civilian positions, killing large numbers of Islamic State group and Al-Qaeda-linked fighters.

In Afghanistan, IS-K view Russia as being an ally of the Taliban, which is why they attacked the Russian embassy in Kabul in 2022.

They also bear a grudge for the 10 years of brutal Soviet occupation of that country from 1979-89.

Then there is the situation inside Russia itself.

Russia is viewed by IS-K as very much a Christian country and their video posted after the Moscow attack talks about killing Christians.

Tajik and other Central Asian migrant workers are sometimes subject to a degree of harassment and suspicion by the FSB as it seeks to head off terrorist attacks.

Finally, Russia - a nation currently distracted by its full-scale war with its neighbour Ukraine - may simply have been a convenient target of opportunity for IS-K, a place where weapons were available and their enemy's guard was down.

What do we still not know about the Moscow attack?

There remain a number of unanswered questions about this whole episode.

For example, why were the attackers able to wander at will for nearly an hour around the Crocus Hall with absolutely no apparent sense of urgency?

In a country where the police and special services, notably the FSB, are omnipresent, these gunmen behaved as if they knew they were not going to be interrupted by a police SWAT team.

Then there are the weapons - not just handguns but powerful, modern automatic assault rifles. How were they able to acquire these and smuggle them undetected into the venue?

Their swift capture is also surprising.

Unlike many jihadist gunmen on a raid like this, these men were not wearing suicide vests or belts, in the manner of those who prefer death to capture.

And yet, it did not take long for the Russian authorities - the same Russian authorities who failed to stop the worst terror plot in 20 years unfolding beneath their noses - to round up the suspects and put them on trial.

All this is prompting some analysts to speculate about some sort of so-called "inside job" by the Kremlin, or a "false flag operation" to garner popular support for the war on Ukraine.

However, there is no hard evidence to support that theory and US intelligence has confirmed that in their view, it was Islamic State behind this hideous attack.