#middle east oil crisis

[head-post]

Oil prices freeze in expectation of Middle East conflict escalation

Oil prices were flat on Thursday after two sessions of gains. Rising supply risks in the Middle East offset demand concerns that earlier in the week drove prices to their lowest levels since early 2024, Reuters reports.

Brent crude prices rose on Wednesday, recovering from a sharp drop on Monday as Brent crude hit its lowest since early January and WTI crude hit its lowest since early February.

Prices were supported on Wednesday by a 3.7 million barrel drop in US crude inventories, which beat analysts’ expectations of a 700,000 barrel decline and marked the sixth consecutive weekly decline to six-month lows.

Brent crude futures fell 4 cents to $78.29 a barrel by 1309 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 10 cents, or 0.1 per cent, to $75.33. Mazen Salhab, market strategist for BDSwiss, said:

Crude oil futures experienced volatility in reaction to a mix of economic concerns and rising geopolitical tensions. Weak US economic data, including poor job growth, have raised concerns about a possible recession in the US. Despite these economic fears, oil prices might find support on the back of tensions in the Middle East.

The killing of senior members of militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah last week raised the likelihood of retaliatory Iranian strikes on Israel, adding to concerns about oil supplies from the world’s largest producing region.

Also providing some support was Libya’s National Oil Corporation, which declared force majeure on its Sharara oilfield from Tuesday, it said in a statement, adding that the company had been gradually reducing production at the field due to the protests.

Citi analysts forecast that there is a possibility of a rebound in Brent crude oil prices to below $80. Citi said:

Upside risks in the market remain, from still-tight balances through August, heightened geopolitical risks across North Africa and the Middle East, the possibility of weather-related disruptions through hurricane season and light managed money positioning.

Read more HERE

[kinialohaguy]

The End Of The Petrodollar

Aloha kākou. The end of the Petrodollar should be extremely concerning to all Americans. Not only will it damage our economy, but it could also trigger a worldwide depression should the petrodollar collapse. America would shrink from a world economic superpower to a second world nation if nothing is done. Under this current regime, nothing is being done to stop a potential economic…

[rikamae]

I understand now. I understand all of it.

All those times politicians claimed something was "too complicated" "not that simple" "we don't have the money" it's all lies to keep us complacent.

They did it about the situation is Israel. "It's too complicated" everyone said. It didn't look complicated when I did my own research, away from those shitty think pieces talking down to me. Israel was a state built off the blood of Palestinians, and they simply do not want you to think about it. Because there is oil in the middle east and Israel is our only "Ally"

Wow, so complicated! The complicated part being that our media is tricking us into thinking this is so complex so they can be evil in plain sight: yes, so complicated of a situation!!

And today I wake up to find that the House of Representatives (the lowest level of US government) has passed a bill offering 14 billion to Israel! It will go to the Senate to vote. Wow, billion with a B huh? I got a question for you.

Where the fuck did we get enough money to fund genocide? Where the hell was all this money when it comes to supporting the Americans you politicians claim to be representing? Where was this money for free college, universal Healthcare, covid precautions, the climate crisis??

"It's just too complicated! You'll make us do cuts on other programs! You'll make us raise taxes!! Think of the taxes!!!"

Then where did this money come from? Oh, the IRS, the fucking company that handles our taxes??? Yeah????? That was an option? Why wasn't it an option before but it is now? Were they over funded and we just didn't notice until now? Or are you taking advantage of the situation to cut funding to another service you hate?? The point being: if they really want something, they can find the fucking money. They haven't because they don't want to.

It's never been complicated. It's their job to move money around. It's their fucking job to raise our taxes and provide for us, but the only people they truly represent are the ones filling their pockets with lobby money. They could have done this long ago, given us what we've been demanding, but they coddled us and said it was too complicated and our baby brains couldn't handle it. And God forbid you be a woman!! That means you're double unable to understand!

Enough. Fucking enough. Every year congress votes to increase their wages and refuses to raise our minimum wage. Every year they take advantage of their medical insurance and benefits they get for "representing" us when nearly every adult I know is left to suffer with their conditions: untreated sicknesses, chronic conditions, the depression that looms over us because we live in the most wealthy country in the world but we can't make ends meet and our government is more concern with funding armies that feeding and housing us

Politics was never complicated. They just told us it was. To shut us up. To make us feel young and idealistic and stupid. And we fell for it. And now evil is moving through the wills of our leaders IN OUR FUCKING NAMES to support a genocide in the middle east. Their only crime was being born on that land. Their only crime is being Arab. That's not a fucking crime.

Our system isn't complicated. It's working as intended. Keep the people blind and claim that it's too hard, leave all the details to them. But we are smarter than they are. We are informed. The world is connected like never before and I refuse to let their propaganda ever reach me again.

Hold them accountable. Know their names. Write it in the history books. Let their legacy be known to the end of times.

Be loud about your anger. Go to protests. Write your reps to tell them your vote is on the line. And for God's sake vote in the damned elections!

THE IDEA THAT YOUR VOTE DOESN'T MATTER IS PROPOGANDA. THEY WANT YOU TO FEEL USELESS. THEY WANT YOU TO GIVE UP SO THEY STAY IN POWER.

They want you to think it's complicated. It never has been. Be loud. Vote. Use your right to protest. Use your right to free speech. Use your right to petition. Next Tuesday is election day. Make it fucking count.

[hussyknee]

Fellas, is it an act of war against a Western European country to hold their citizens prisoner in the open air prison they're carpet bombing?

Lebanon's Hezbollah and Yemen's Houthis have been launching attacks on US military bases in Syria and Iraq and firing missiles at Israel in tandem with Hamas's attacks. All three are funded by Iran.

(I am HEAVING with laughter at Vox and every single one of these propagandist chucklefucks calling them "militias" and "terrorist organisations" and trying to frame this as justification for continuing to fund Israel like. MOTHERFUCKER WHOSE REGION ARE YOU IN EXACTLY?? WHO IS GENOCIDING PEOPLE ON THEIR OWN SOIL??)

"But they're fundie theocratic military states!!!"

*looks at Israel*

*looks at you*

*looks at current state of US*

Oh, ARE they?

US officials have met with the Lebanese caretaker government in an effort to try and prevent the conflict from spreading into Lebanon.

Um. Was this before or after Israel poured white phosphorus on Lebanon? Do y'all even have any control over your dog?

(Btw if you MCU brainrotted Western leftists don't stop trying to pick a Good Guy out of this mess instead of understanding basic geo-politics and the horrific ground realities of the countries the US and its allies have left in tatters, you're frankly just as much of an enemy to the people in those countries as your leaders are. Every one of these people are fascist cunts.)

For those of you who have been BLEATING about Ukraine non-stop, like it's NOT an expendable non-NATO country they're only interested in defending in case Putin gets any bright ideas about Poland, here's an opinion that makes sense to me:

Tell me it wouldn't be perfectly on brand if the US government announced, "Our great democracy bows to the will of the people. We hear you, we see you. We will divest...from Ukraine."

The West has never given one singular shit about protecting ANYONE from genocide. Vulnerability is liability. The only difference between them and Putin is that Putin is greedy megalomaniacal fascist surrounded by self-interested yes-men and the US is run by a committee of greedy egomaniacal fascists surrounded by self-interested yes-men whose end goal is keeping the death machine spinning money rather than even "winning" territories. All they have to do to turn this around is divest from Israel and focus on Ukraine. And no, Israel can't throw in with Putin because it'll be too busy trying to fight off three countries at once without the sugar from its Daddy.

Putin will not stop at Ukraine, for the same reason the US didn't stop at Afghanistan. Empires are built on their military power and militaries need to be fed and kept active and kept active to be fed. The minute you stop, it tries to eat itself. If Putin makes a move on Poland, NATO has to respond, and if the West is also embroiled in an all-out war with the Middle East, well. It looks kinda like a global conflict.

Oh and btw, if this does escalate into another regional war in the Middle East, we're going to be plunged into an oil crisis. Which might actually be the last straw for the UK economy, but it very DEFINITELY will be for the rest of the Global South.

(Also Biden's already auctioned off the Gulf of Mexico and Alaska for oil companies for such an intensive scale of fracking that it's projected to tip the world over the edge of climate collapse. In the event of a war in the ME, the US is going to need that oil soooooo. Good luck stopping it.)

[girlactionfigure]

How to End the New War of Attrition

Welcome to that familiar location, the one between a rock and a hard place.

Since the day after the invasion and massacre on 7 October, Hezbollah has been waging a successful war of attrition against Israel. More than 80,000 Israelis have been displaced from their homes on the northern border, and more than 50 have been killed by rockets and antitank weapons. Border towns and kibbutzim have become wastelands. Homes and other structures have been destroyed, and fields burned.

Israel has responded in a carefully measured, tit-for-tat fashion which, as anyone familiar with the Middle East knows, sends a message of weakness and an invitation for further depredation. There are three apparent reasons for this:

The IDF does not want to fight a two-front war.

Hezbollah has between 130,000 to 200,000 rockets, missiles, and drones that it can launch at Israel, some of them with precision guidance systems that can strike within a few meters of a target. The home front is expected to suffer thousands of deaths and massive destruction of property and infrastructure.

The American administration has told Israel that if it attacks Hezbollah preemptively, it will not support us (presumably with weapons deliveries or at the UN).

On 28 July, a Hezbollah rocket with a 50 kg warhead struck a soccer field and playground in Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights. 12 children and teenagers were killed and numerous others injured, some critically. There was an alert, but it came only a few seconds before the explosion, and the children did not have time to reach a nearby concrete shelter. One child was missing for a day, before it was determined that his body had been blown to bits.

Majdal Shams is the “capital” of the Golan Druze. The Druze mostly live in Lebanon, Syria, the Golan, and the Galilee region of Israel. They have a unique religion, and a tradition of loyalty to the states in which they live. They also have a military tradition, and Israeli Druze serve in the IDF and Border Patrol. They are considered among the best fighters and officers and have paid a high price in blood in Israel’s wars.

The entire region is watching to see how Israel will react to the murder of 12 children. Such an atrocity demands a disproportionate response. If the reaction is typical of the recent past, our enemies will know that the understanding that murdering Israeli civilians is normal behavior is still in effect. The Druze will know that Israel does not care about them or value their contributions to the state. After all, we hit the Houthis’ oil industry and port after they killed one Jew in Tel Aviv.

The Americans have already informed us that yes, we are allowed to retaliate, but no, it cannot be disproportionate. And we may not touch Beirut, where Hezbollah boss Hassan Nasrallah is holed up.

When we were invaded on 7 October, the Biden Administration expressed its horror at the massacre of 1200 Israelis and expressed its support. But in the following days it tried to delay or prevent a ground invasion of Gaza. Once the ground war started, it supported Egypt’s demand that not one Gazan would be allowed to cross the border; but at the same time it complained about civilian casualties in the Strip. Then it tried to prevent us from entering Rafiah and taking control of the border between Gaza and Egypt to cut off Hamas’ weapons supply. Even after we demonstrated that it was possible to move civilians out of the way, it continued to throttle our supply of ammunition, to “protect” them. The administration also delayed the delivery of “smart” munitions which enable precise strikes at military targets! All during the war it has pressed for a hostage deal on terms that would leave Hamas in control of Gaza. And it has encouraged the “bring them home at any price” movement in Israel, as well as the forces opposing PM Netanyahu, who wants to keep fighting. Following the philosophy of never allowing a crisis to go to waste, the Biden administration wishes to turn the “day after” the war into a “two-state solution” that would put most of Israel into jeopardy from 7 October-style invasions.

Many seem to have forgotten that on 13 April of this year, Iran launched a direct attack on Israel, launching more than 300 ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones against us. Israel – with some help from the US and others – succeeded in shooting most of them down (at an estimated cost of $1 billion). But had a large number of them reached their targets, the destruction and death would have been beyond estimation. It was an attempt to destroy the fabric of our nation and demanded a suitable response. Instead, we bombed an Iranian air defense radar installation. We were told this would “send a message” to Iran. It did, but not the intended one. It informed them that it’s acceptable to shoot at Jews, and they should keep trying. After all, what do they have to lose?

The Majdal Shams attack cannot be allowed to go unavenged. We cannot afford to allow our deterrence to erode further. The wolves are circling. Yesterday, the little pisher of Turkey, Tayip Recip Erdoğan, threatened that he too could invade Israel. Why not? Everyone is doing it. But still more important: we cannot betray our Druze citizens (and those in the Golan who still hold Syrian citizenship but more and more are becoming Israelis). We owe them, and we need them.

There is little chance that we can make the Americans agree. I would like to think it is because they don’t understand the Middle East, and it’s partly that, but it’s also because the Democratic administration is still following the pro-Iranian policy established by Barack Obama. Nevertheless, we have no alternative but to do it anyway.

But what about the danger from Hezbollah’s arsenal? Many analysts think that Israel could not survive the full force of the blow it could inflict. Of course the state of Lebanon would also be bombed into the stone age, but the Iranian puppeteers are perfectly happy in sacrificing the hosts of their proxies if it will achieve their goal.

We are in a bad spot, but there is one strategy that might succeed: that is to strike a massive blow at the Iranian regime and Iran’s infrastructure, to cut off the head of the snake, so to speak. If this could be done quickly and effectively, Hezbollah would be left high and dry, and could be persuaded to avoid the mutual devastation that would result from all-out war with Israel.

Would it work? How would we do it? I am not a military expert. But I do know that we cannot continue along the road we are following today, because it leads only to destruction.

[darkmaga-retard]

By Brandon Smith

Alt-Market.us

August 5, 2024

If the year of 2024 has proven anything so far, it’s that our worries about the potential outbreak of WWIII are absolutely reasonable. The skeptics making accusations of “conspiracy theory” and “doom and gloom” have been proven wrong yet again. The geopolitical atmosphere is turning sour fast.

I still don’t think a lot of people realize how truly volatile the situation is globally right now. From my point of view, WWIII has already begun, at least in economic terms.

Let’s not forget the fact that Ukraine is essentially a proxy for all of NATO against Russia. And, the situation in the Middle East is about to become much worse. Because of the alliances involved and the fragile nature of global energy exports there is a danger of systemic collapse should a wider war break out between Israel and multiple Arab nations. It appears that such a war is imminent.

But why should Americans care? It’s pretty simple – War spurs shortages, and shortages in the middle of a stagflationary crisis are a very bad thing.

Sanctions against Russia affect around 10% of the global oil market and around 12% of global natural gas consumption. But so far all that oil and natural gas is still flowing around the world, only the trade routes have changed. The Middle East, on the other hand, accounts for over 35% of the global oil market and 18% of the natural gas market. Widespread chaos in this region would mean economic crisis on a scale not seen in a century.

Think we have problems with stagflation now? Just wait until energy prices go to the moon.

[deadpresidents]

Since these questions were sent at about the same time, I'm going to answer them together in the same post.

There's actually a great book that came out in 2020 about the geopolitical rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran that really heated up following the Islamic Revolution in Iran that overthrew the Shah in 1979 in favor of the theocracy of the Ayatollah Khomeini: Black Wave: Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the Forty-Year Rivalry That Unraveled Culture, Religion, and Collective Memory in the Middle East by Kim Ghattas (BOOK | KINDLE | AUDIO). It's one of the better books that I've read in the past few years and the ideal book to pick up if you're interested in the two most powerful Islamic nations of the Middle East.

Another good book that focuses on both countries is Andrew Scott Cooper's 2012 book The Oil Kings: How the U.S., Iran, and Saudi Arabia Changed the Balance of Power in the Middle East (BOOK | KINDLE | AUDIO).

SAUDI ARABIA (I've read A LOT of books about Saudi Arabia over the past few years, so I could go on-and-on, but I'll try to limit myself to just a few recommendations!) •The Kingdom: Arabia and the House of Sa'ud by Robert Lacey (BOOK | AUDIO) •Inside the Kingdom: Kings, Clerics, Modernists, Terrorists, and the Struggle for Saudi Arabia by Robert Lacey (BOOK | KINDLE | AUDIO) •Ibn Saud: The Desert Warrior Who Created the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia by Barbara Bray and Michael Darlow (BOOK | KINDLE | AUDIO) •The Siege of Mecca: The 1979 Uprising at Islam's Holiest Shrine by Yaroslav Trofimov (BOOK | KINDLE | AUDIO) •Saudi Arabia in the Nineteenth Century by R. Bayly Winder •King Faisal of Saudi Arabia: Personality, Faith and Times by Alexei Vassiliev (BOOK | KINDLE) •Kings and Presidents: Saudi Arabia and the United States Since FDR by Bruce Riedel (BOOK | KINDLE)

IRAN •The Fall of Heaven: The Pahlavis and the Final Days of Imperial Iran by Andrew Scott Cooper (BOOK | KINDLE | AUDIO) •America and Iran: A History, 1720 to the Present by John Ghazvinian (BOOK | KINDLE | AUDIO) •The Iran-Iraq War by Pierre Razoux (BOOK | KINDLE) •A History of Iran: Empire of the Mind by Michael Axworthy (BOOK | KINDLE | AUDIO) •Iran: A Modern History by Abbas Amanat (BOOK | KINDLE | AUDIO) •All the Shah's Men: An American Coup and the Roots of Middle East Terror by Stephen Kinzer (BOOK | KINDLE) •Guests of the Ayatollah: The Iran Hostage Crisis: The First Battle in America's War with Militant Islam by Mark Bowden (BOOK | KINDLE | AUDIO) •The Twilight War: The Secret History of America's Thirty-Year Conflict with Iran by David Crist (BOOK | KINDLE | AUDIO)

I'll stop there for now. I could list scores of books because I'm fascinated by the history of both countries, their place in the world, and their relations with one another and with the United States. I probably read a lot more about Saudi Arabia and Iran -- and their leaders -- than most people would expect. So I have even more suggestions if you need them...but hopefully this is a good start!

[socialjusticeinamerica]

Arguably “Dubya” Bush was worse. He started the two forever wars leading to millions of deaths that continue to this day. Hey turned the entire Middle East and Muslim world against us. He, and his papa, shared secret intel with the Saudis and let them off the hook for their role in 9/11. He allowed the New Orleans area be wiped off the map and hired mercenaries to forcibly relocate the survivors across the country at gunpoint. Many families were split by this and some still haven’t been reunited.

He and his sidekick Darth Cheney plundered the economy and made billions for themselves by awarding contracts to Halliburton and other companies they were heavily invested in. He allowed the oil companies to price gouge to record levels and personally profited from it. He made us the laughingstock of the world and damaged relations with close allies. He illegally invaded Iraq which had no connection to 9/11. He allowed the creation of Al Qaeda in Iraq which had previously been prevented by Saddam Hussein. He caused the Iraqi civil war and caused the founding of ISIS and set the stage for the Syrian civil war. He labeled Iran and North Korea as part of the Axis of Evil which pushed them into pursuing nuclear weapons to protect themselves while funding our geo-political enemies.

His mismanagement caused our debt to soar to massive levels. He created an environment which rewarded businesses to outsource jobs to foreign nations. He allowed Karl Rove to bring GOP computer servers into the White House and started the massive misinformation war that Trump and the Republikkkans are using against us today. He allowed guns to flourish on the streets and black people to be treated like second class citizens. He ramped up deportations of individuals from countries he didn’t like. He created military crises (a la Putin) to bring the public to support him at election time and his party at midterms. He gave us the Patriot Act and Homeland Security. He created No Child Left Behind which was a war on public education whose goal was to give educational funding to shitty for profit charter schools and evangelical schools. He began the widespread practice of giving public dollars to non-governmental organizations, evangelical groups, to solve social problems with no oversight.

In fact he was directly responsible for bringing evangelicals into the Republikkkan camp by paying their pastors to preach pro-Republikkkan messages and anti-progressive messages. He started the widespread practice of privatized prisons which turned out horribly. His mismanagement caused the energy crisis, Enron anybody. His mismanagement Aldo allowed 9/11 to happen. They knew and Republikkkan insiders and officials took to flying private charters in the weeks before the attacks.

I could go on but I’m sure not too many are still reading this far down. Let’s conclude by saying without an idiot like W Bush the stage wouldn’t have been set for a bigger idiot like Trump. Trump could have been much worse but he was so inept and insane he gorged himself and squabbled with the press instead of giving the GOP oligarchs what they really wanted. Trump will be known for his massive tax cut for the wealthy and jamming neo-Nazi judges down our throats. Bush stole two elections, Trump mercifully wasn’t bright enough to steal a second.

[workersolidarity]

[ 📸 U.S. troops go on patrol at al-Tanf air base in eastern Syria. The Syrian government considers the United States presence in its eastern third as an illegal occupation, and wants U.S. soldiers out of the country.]

🇺🇲⚔️🇸🇾 🪖 🚨

US TO CONSIDER WITHDRAWAL FROM SYRIAN OCCUPATION

The United States is considering a withdrawal of its forces from Syria, according to an article published in Foreign Policy, an online news periodical with ties to the U.S. Defense establishment.

Citing four sources from within the U.S. departments of State and Defense, Foreign Policy claims active internal discussions are ongoing within the Biden administration on a troop withdrawal from Syria, a notoriously illegal occupation of nearly one-third of Syrian territory, which the United States has used to siphon tens of billions of dollars worth of oil out of the country.

The piece was written by senior fellow and director of the Syrian Counterterrorism and Extremism Programs at Middle East Institute, Charles Lister.

The organization itself, the Middle East Institute, is funded by a who's-who of U.S. proxy-governments, Intelligence sources, elite Universities, and giant corporations including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Oman, ExxonMobil, George Soros's Open Societies Foundation, Morgan Stanley, and Princeton University.

The article itself presents the decision on the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria as an impending disaster, warning that the Islamic State is waiting in the wings for an opportunity to take back control over the Levant, with the title of the published article "America is planning to withdraw from Syria- and create a disaster."

Lister warns that the withdrawal should be "cause for significant concern" and that, while no decision has yet been reached by the Biden administration, the White House is "no longer invested in sustaining a mission that it perceives as unnecessary."

"Notwithstanding the catastrophic effect that a withdrawal would have on U.S. and allied influence over the unresolved and acutely volatile crisis in Syria, it would also be a gift to the Islamic State. While significantly weakened, the group is in fact primed for a resurgence in Syria, if given the space to do so," Lister summerized.

Lister claims that the United States's "unprecedented intervention" launched in 2014 by the Obama administration, alongside "80 partner nations," was "remarkably successful," without ever mentioning Iran's intervention to organize a strong resistance to the Islamic State in Iraq, nor the Russian Intervention to strengthen and reinforce Syria's military and air defenses.

Lister claims the situation in Syria is "more complex" than that of Iraq's, adding that "with approximately 900 troops on the ground, the United States is playing an instrumental role in containing and degrading a persistent Islamic State insurgency in northeastern Syria, working alongside its local partners, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)."

Again, Lister ignores the role played by the Russian military in providing air cover and tactical strikes on behalf of the Syrian military, warning that the threat from IS remains a serious cause for concern.

Lister points to a rocket attack launched against a prison maintained by U.S. proxy-forces to warn of the dangers in Syria, elaborating on the heroic defense of the so-called "Syrian Democratic Forces," comprised of a mix of jihadist groups, some with ties to al-Qaeda, that ran amok, sowing chaos and destabilizing Eastern Syria, until the Russian Intervention in September 2015, when U.S. proxy-forces were largely sequestered into the illegally U.S.-occupied territory in the eastern-most third of Syria.

Lister goes on to raise alarms over the security situation in western Syria too, where Syrian government forces, with the help of the Russian military, have since regained control of much of its territory formally under the control of jihadist groups.

"While U.S. troops and their SDF partners have managed to contain the Islamic State’s recovery in Syria’s northeast, the situation is far more concerning to the west—on the other side of the Euphrates River, where the Syrian regime is in control, at least on paper," Lister claims.

Lister, pushing for the U.S. to remain in Syria, says that "In this vast expanse of desert, the Islamic State has been engaged in a slow but methodical recovery, exploiting regime indifference and its inability to challenge a fluid desert-based insurgency."

Lister's alarmism goes on, describing the supposed regrouping of IS in various government-held regions of Syria, even going so far as to claim that the Islamic State has only been quiet in recent months due to employing a strategy of concealing its operations, never pointing to specific examples that might back those claims.

"For the past several years, the Islamic State has purposely concealed its level of operation in Syria, consistently choosing not to claim responsibility for attacks that it was conducting," the article claims, inversely suggesting the absence of activity by the extremist group is actually evidence of their malfeasance.

Lister also claims that the situation in the Gaza Strip is fueling the groups return, stating that the "war in Gaza and a spiraling regional crises are adding fuel to its fire and creating opportunities for the terror group to exploit the situation for its own advantage," without ever giving any concrete examples of how, where and in what way the group is returning, only citing research from his own shadily-funded organization's projects as evidence.

"According to the Counter Extremism Project, in 2023 alone, the Islamic State conducted at least 212 attacks in Syria’s central desert region, killing at least 502 people. As covert threats and overt attacks increase, reports are emerging with increasing frequency of desertions within regime ranks," Lister says.

Lister then claims that the United States is the only thing holding the region together even as he admits there's little the U.S. can do within territories controlled by the Syrian government.

That claim, that the U.S. is the glue holding Syria together, flies in the face of the countless warnings by both the Syrian and Russian governments that say the United States is in fact the source of instability in the region.

"While there is little that U.S. forces can do to alter Islamic State activities within the regime-controlled regions of Syria, U.S. troops are the glue holding together the only meaningful challenge to the Islamic State within a third of Syrian territory. Were that glue to disappear, a significant resurgence in Syria would be all but guaranteed, and a destabilizing spillover into Iraq a certainty."

Interestingly, Lister goes on to point to Iraq as an important player in the future of the Islamic State group, admitting that increased tensions created by the U.S. occupation in Iraq, along with the U.S support for Israel's ongoing genocide in Gaza, is creating a new push in the country to remove U.S. forces from Iraq by its parliament, creating a supposed opening for extremist groups in the region.

Lister puts the blame squarely on Iran for these openings, and for Iraq's growing impatience with Washington, adding that a troop withdrawal would be a bad idea, even invoking the collapse of U.S. proxy-forces in Afghanistan to warn of the dangers of a troop withdrawal from Syria.

"Ultimately, events since October have placed the U.S. deployment in northeast Syria on a fraying thread—hence recent internal consideration of a Syria withdrawal," Lister says, adding that "Given the disastrous consequences of the hurried exit from Afghanistan in 2021 and the impending U.S. election later this year, it is hard to grasp why the Biden administration would be considering a withdrawal from Syria."

Lister concludes that "no matter how such a withdrawal was conducted, it would trigger chaos and a swift surge in terror threats."

"There can be no denying the clear sense in policy circles that it is being actively considered—and that it has been accepted as an eventual inevitability," Lister claims.

Lister emphasized that anyone considering a collaborative approach with the Syrian government are making a big mistake, because "that would not only be a phenomenal boon to the Islamic State, but simply impossible on its own terms."

Lister explained that "part of the SDF may have periodic contact with Assad’s regime, but they are far from natural allies. The regime would never allow the SDF to sustain itself, and Turkey would do everything possible to kill what remained [of Washington's proxies]."

"The last time that the Islamic State surged in Syria, in 2014, it transformed international security in profoundly negative ways. Should a U.S. withdrawal precipitate a return to Islamic State chaos, we will be relegated to mere observers, unable to return to a region that we will have placed squarely under the control of a pariah regime and its Russian and Iranian allies."

#source

#OnListersOrganizationsFinances

@WorkerSolidarityNews

[head-post]

Oil prices rose amid tensions in Middle East

Oil prices rose on Wednesday after industry data revealed an unexpected drop in US crude inventories last week, a positive signal for demand, Anadolu Ajansı reports.

As of 09:32 a.m. local time (0632 GMT), international benchmark Brent crude was trading at $88.21 a barrel, up 0.21 percent from the previous session’s closing price of $88.02 a barrel.

US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was trading at $82.95 per barrel at the same time, up 0.17% from the previous session’s closing price of $82.81 per barrel.

A decline in commercial crude inventories in the US, the world’s largest oil consumer, and tensions in the Middle East were factors contributing to the price rise.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that commercial crude oil inventories fell by about 6.4 million barrels to 453.6 million barrels last week, while the market had forecast an increase of 1.6 million barrels. Such a large reduction in inventories indicates strong demand, fuelling higher prices.

Read more HERE

[anakinsafterlife]

Finished Dune, the book. Still have questions. I'm confused about the 'people of Misr' issue. Why use an Egyptian term when the story more closely mirrors struggles for control of oil in the Gulf and the Levant? Although I suppose I might be thinking too recently with this. It's possible that Frank Herbert was thinking of the British occupation of Egypt and the Suez Canal Crisis. Need to look more into this...

I also saw that Herbert served in the US Navy in World War 2 and was talking about it with someone who insisted that he must have been a spy, given his unusual depth of knowledge (particularly for his time) about the Middle East, Arab cultures and Islam. Still haven't seen anything about his sources. Anyone knows anything about this?

Thirdly. Even given the leeway that he must have had to write about these things prior to the popularization of science fiction, I noticed that Herbert was extremely cautious about using baldly religious terminology. The word God is mentioned exactly twice in the book, and although we're meant to think of Paul as a prophet, it's unclear what he's a prophet of.

This hedging is prudent, given the extremely sensitive nature of the subject. In Sunni Islam, at least (and the book does refer to "our Sunni ancestors", despite the appearance of some Shia terminlogy), the Prophet Mohamed is the Seal of the Prophets, meaning the last and final Prophet. Although I have seen some interesting conversation in the past regarding how Islam might be delivered to people on other planets, should such intelligent alien life exist, I'm not sure that applies in this case, given that these people are meant to be part of an unbroken bloodline that started on Earth.

Some muddy waters here, but the world building is fascinating.

[sleepdepriveddoorknobs]

I wish I was normal about transformers but I wanna analyze it like an English teacher. In 1984 when transformers was created this whole million year war is based on a resource crisis (energon) meanwhile the United States wars over oil in the middle east. The bay movies we funded by the military but the idw comics goes over IN LENGTH just how awful war is. How it can tear apart a planet just as easy as it can tear apart your mind.

Is it campy? Is it silly? YES. But Transformers can remind me of The things they carried and Slaughterhouse five and the Illiad and the Aeneid because it's about war and what it does to you!!! AAAAAAAAAAA

[willowthornhollyhawk]

Free movies right at your fingertips all for the low price of $0 with your library card!

Watch hundreds of films, television shows, theatrical productions, and documentaries without ads through Kanopy!

Looking for something to read instead? Download books, magazines, comics, and audio books through Libby!

Not sure where to start with Kanopy? Once you have your library card, here are some documentaries from my own watch list to get you started! (Tip: If a title is not available, request it through your library.)

Born in Gaza (2014) - filmed during the 2014 siege of Gaza, which left 507 children dead and 3,598 wounded, born in Gaza follows a group of young children growing up in a war zone.

Where Should the Birds Fly? (2013) - tells the stories of two remarkable young women living in Gaza and the struggle of Gazans trying to maintain their humanity and humour while hoping to find some sense of normality in a world that is anything but normal

Last Stop: Palestine (2013) - an in-depth and eye-opening investigation into life in the West Bank

The First 54 Years (2021) - Director Avi Mograbi hosts the viewers in his living room and provides insights to how a colonialist occupation works

Tears of Gaza (2010) - a record presented with minimal gloss of the 2008 to 2009 bombing of Gaza by the Israeli military.

Peace, Propaganda & The Promised Land (2003) - provides a striking comparison of US and international media coverage of the crisis in the Middle East, zeroing in on how structural distortions in US coverage have reinforced false perceptions of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This pivotal documentary exposes how the foreign policy interests of America political elites - oil, and a need to have a secure military base in the region, among others - work in combination with Israeli public relations strategies to exercise a powerful influence over how news from the region is reported.

[dreaminginthedeepsouth]

LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

October 15, 2023

HEATHER COX RICHARDSON

“We came here with four key objectives,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters in Egypt: “to make clear that the United States stands with Israel; to prevent the conflict from spreading to other places; to work on securing the release of hostages, including American citizens; and to address the humanitarian crisis that exists in Gaza.”

Blinken has been traveling country to country in the Middle East since shortly after the October 7 attack on Israel by Hamas fighters, who crossed into Israel and killed at least 1,300 people, of whom more than 1,000 were civilians, 30 were Americans, 12 were Thais, and 2 were French nationals. They also took 126 hostages, including not only Israelis, apparently, but also 8 Germans, 5 U.S. nationals, and 2 Mexican nationals.

Retaliatory strikes by Israeli forces on Gaza since then have killed at least 2,670 people and displaced almost a million. Israel has stopped food, water, fuel, and electricity from getting to Gaza and has told the more than a million residents in northern Gaza to move south to clear the way for a military incursion. Israeli energy minister Israel Katz said the siege would continue until Hamas frees the hostages. About 500 U.S. citizens are in Gaza.

The Biden administration has been pushing diplomacy to stop the crisis from spreading. On October 11, Blinken traveled to Israel, where he met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and then to Jordan, where he met with the head of the Palestinian Authority that exercises limited government in the West Bank, Mahmoud Abbas.

Then he went on to Bahrain, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. Virtually everywhere, he said, he found “a shared view that we have to do everything possible to make sure this doesn’t spread to other places; a shared view to safeguard innocent lives; a shared view to get assistance to Palestinians in Gaza who need it, and we’re working very much on that.”

Blinken emphasized that the U.S. will stand with Israel “today, tomorrow, and every day…in word and also in deed.” He noted that the U.S. has moved a second carrier strike group (CSG) to the Eastern Mediterranean. A CSG is a powerful, flexible group of about 7,500 sailors and Marines on a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, a replenishment ship (which carries oil and supplies), a cruiser, destroyers, and a submarine, as well as various aircraft. 

The U.S. maintains 11 CSGs. Two of them are now in the Eastern Mediterranean not as provocation, Blinken said, but “as a deterrent. It’s meant to make clear that no one should do anything that could add fuel to the fire in any other place.” Sending two CSGs to the region is a strong statement, almost certainly designed to address threats by Iran that it will “respond” if Israel proceeds with a ground invasion of Gaza.

Iran backs Hamas—although there is not yet evidence that Iranian officials directly helped plan the October 7 attack—and also backs Hezbollah, the militant group that controls southern Lebanon. Today, clashes broke out on the border between Israel and Lebanon as Hezbollah fired missiles into Israel and Israeli forces fired artillery back. 

Israel has “the right—indeed it has the obligation—to defend itself against these attacks from Hamas, and to try to do what it can to make sure that this never happens again,” Blinken said. But, he added, “[i]t needs to do it in a way that affirms the shared values that we have for human life and human dignity, taking every possible precaution to avoid harming civilians.”

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres implored Hamas to release the hostages immediately and Israel to grant “rapid and unimpeded access…for humanitarian supplies and workers for the sake of the civilians in Gaza,” which “is running out of water, electricity and other essential supplies.” These two issues must not become bargaining chips, he said. “[W]e are on the verge of the abyss in the Middle East.” Opening a gate between Gaza and Egypt would allow supplies to be brought in and would help to move refugees south, away from the northern areas Israel is expected to attack.  

Relief for Gaza’s people has been bottled up on the Egyptian side of the border as Israeli officials refuse to guarantee their forces will not bomb relief trucks out of concern they are carrying weapons. The U.S. has put strong pressure on Israel to reopen the water supply to Gaza, especially in the southern region since the influx of refugees was already stressing supplies, and today Israel did so, but observers say that without electricity and fuel, the pumping stations and the plants that take salt out of the water don’t work. 

The U.S. is also clearly working to get the U.S. hostages released, but officials will not talk about the details of that operation. 

Today President Biden appointed Ambassador David Satterfield as the U.S. Special Envoy for Middle East Humanitarian Issues, charging him with bringing “urgently needed humanitarian assistance to the Palestinian people, particularly in Gaza, in coordination with the U.N., Egypt, Jordan, Israel, and other regional stakeholders.” 

A diplomat since 1980, Satterfield has worked in countries all over the region for both Republican and Democratic administrations. He has served as the U.S. ambassador to Lebanon, U.S. deputy chief of mission in Iraq, assistant secretary for the State Department’s Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, and director general of the body overseeing peace between Israel and Egypt.

“There are two very different visions for the future and what the Middle East can and should be,” Blinken said today. The U.S. stands behind a vision “that has countries in the region normalizing their relations, integrating, working together in common purpose, and upholding and bringing forth the rights and aspirations of the Palestinian people.” 

The other vision is the one Hamas embraces: “a vision of death, of destruction, of nihilism, of terrorism. That’s a vision that does nothing to advance aspirations for Palestinians, that does nothing to help create better futures for people in the region, and does everything to bring total darkness to everyone that it’s able to affect.”

The visions are clear, Blinken said. He said he had no doubt that the overwhelming majority of people in the region would choose the first if given the chance. So it is the responsibility of “all of us who believe in that first path…to make it real, to bring it to light, to make it a clear, affirmative choice. And that’s what we’re determined to do…. If we do that, everyone in this region will be in a much better place and so will the rest of the world.”

And yet that vision must be reinforced at home. The murder of a six-year-old child and the attempted murder of the child’s mother yesterday in Illinois by their 71-year-old landlord prompted the president to warn against Islamophobia. The family was Palestinian and had immigrated to the U.S. “seeking what we all seek—a refuge to live, learn, and pray in peace,” Biden said. The child was born in the U.S.

“This horrific act of hate has no place in America, and stands against our fundamental values: freedom from fear for how we pray, what we believe, and who we are,” Biden said.  

“We join everyone here at the White House in sending our condolences and prayers to the family, including for the mother’s recovery, and to the broader Palestinian, Arab, and Muslim American communities.”

—

LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

HEATHER COX RICHARDSON

[girlactionfigure]

7 reasons why the Palestinian crisis & the Black struggle for freedom are absolutely nothing alike

The “parallels” between the Palestinian plight and that of African-Americans have been made for decades, and this has always been spurious. Sadly, the exercise continues and seems to be growing as anti-Israel sentiment including global Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) inexplicably gain credibility.

1. UNRWA

Beginning operations on May 1, 1950, the United Nations Relief Works Agency for the Palestinian people is the only UN relief agency that exists exclusively for one group — the Palestinians. At the time of its founding, there were some 720,000 Palestinian refugees. Many of these people became refugees after refusing the offer to become Israeli citizens and choosing to await the great victory over the Jews promised to them by the leaders of the Arab states.

Black Americans from slavery to Jim Crow to the civil rights era never had anything that vaguely resembled UNRWA or any type of international relief agency. We were also unsuccessful at being declared refugees — which surely would have led to reparations for 400 years of forced servitude.

2. INTERNATIONAL AID

The Palestinian Authority (formerly the Palestinian Liberation Organization – PLO) receives about $1 billion annually. This money comes primarily from American and European taxpayers. The money is supposed to go to relieve the suffering of the Palestinian people which, as Dr. King said in 1968, “are part of that third world of hunger, of disease, of illiteracy.” Unfortunately, much of that aid goes to political and racial propaganda and programming, as Palestinian children are fed a constant diet of anti-Semitism and hatred for Israel. From curriculum to suicide bomber camps, Palestinian children are taught to hate Israel and the West — on our dime.

Black Americans received no international aid during centuries of slavery and Jim Crow segregation. Neither did we receive domestic aid.  The very term “forty acres and a mule” (what the US  government promised former Black slaves, but didn’t deliver) became code for, “what we never got.” Money to help fund our quest for freedom came almost exclusively from private donors including Black businesses and families, White abolitionists, churches, synagogues, and other Jewish organizations and individuals.

3. ARAB STATES (Arab League)

In the Middle Eastern region alone there are multiple Arab homelands including Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, and oil-rich Saudi Arabia. They were the dominant force in the Middle East when Israel was reestablished in 1947-48, and used their combined military might to attempt to crush the nascent Jewish State. They failed. Now, not only will these states not take in the Palestinians who have been given official refugee status for three generations, these nations also have a horrible record of human rights abuses against their Arab-Palestinian brothers. They will not allow them to live as citizens, enroll in school, buy property, or even repair their dilapidated dwellings. Palestinian refugees are being killed in Syria while you read this.

Black Americans had no Black nations to which we could turn for help or shelter. While we were enslaved in America, our continent had been colonized by the Europeans. Further, all of North Africa is currently being occupied by Arabs, who stole it from our people. But that’s another list.

4. TERRORISM & TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS

Other than Nat Turner and a few rebellious slaves whom history has forgotten, Black victims of oppression never possessed the means to offer armed resistance to our oppressors during slavery. After slavery (and due to the legal right to purchase guns), Black Americans were able to arm themselves but had no access to rockets, rocket launchers, IEDs, or other explosives.

If Black Americans had been able to fight with weapons, you can be certain that blowing up our sons and daughters would not have been a strategic option. Ever. Under any circumstances.

5. PALESTINIAN ROCK THROWERS & INSTIGATORS

Pictures of Palestinians throwing rocks at, or dropping boulders on unsuspecting Jewish motorists are quite strange to informed Black Americans (my grandmother would have called those rock throwers ‘hoodlums’). During the civil rights struggles of the 1950s and 1960s our ‘weapon’ was non-violent resistance. This was by choice and by necessity, as we were vastly outnumbered and outgunned by the White majority. We could not imagine what would have happened to our young men had they stood at ambush on the roads of Montgomery, Alabama, or Jackson, Mississippi, and thrown rocks at White passers-by. We were lynched for simply breathing while Black.

6. UNHRC

The United Nations Human Rights Council has condemned Israel more than any other nation — combined. In fact, since 1975, over 40% of the UNHRC’s indictments have been against Israel. This imbalance is a result of the Arab states’ undue influence over the UNHRC, as they have worked in tandem with the enemies of the US to discredit and delegitimize the Jewish State. The UNHRC is a large part of the reason that even the casual follower of world events may view Israel in a negative light.

Not only did Black Americans ever have something like a League of Nations to condemn our enemies, the UNHRC further insults us by largely ignoring the suffering of African people in places like Sudan, Eritrea or Congo; or Egypt/Sinai where African slavery and organ harvesting is taking place. This disparity prompted former UN Secretary-General, Kofi Anan to comment, “Since the beginning of their work, [the UNHRC] has focused almost entirely on Israel and there are other crisis situations, like Sudan, where they have not been able to say a word.”

7. ARAB REPRESENTATION IN ISRAELI GOVERNMENT

Not only are there Arab members of the Israeli Parliament (Knesset) and the Supreme Court, some of the individuals are actively working to destroy the Jewish State. They are very vocal anti-Zionists, and their speech (as well as their legislative action) are all protected by Israeli law.

Black Americans did not become a part of the legislative system until after slavery during Reconstruction. We were exclusively Republican by default, as the Democrats were the party of slavery, Jim Crow, and the KKK. We never called for the destruction of America. We have a long, proud tradition of working within the American legal system to address violations of civil and human rights — for everyone. This process reached its zenith during the 1960s as Black leaders and lay people (led by Dr. King and other stalwarts) marched on Washington, D.C. demanding jobs, justice, and equal treatment under the Constitution. 400 years of hard work resulted in Black people helping to make America the greatest democracy on earth.

There are many more than seven reasons why the Black saga and the Palestinian plight should not be compared, but I believe sufficient point has been made.

Lastly, I do not spurn the Palestinian fight for self-determination.  Every fight for justice is a righteous struggle. I would just say that, what made the Black historic struggle effective was our remembering who our enemy was — and who it was not. In the interest of defending Palestinian human rights, one may want to start with the main perpetrators: The Palestinian Authority and Hamas. But again, that is the subject of another discussion.