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#Black Sea Grain Initiative
workersolidarity · 10 months
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Putin comments on grain deal after meeting with Erdogan
Putin comments on grain deal after meeting with Erdogan https://www.rt.com/russia/582353-putin-erdogan-grain-deal/
This is exactly why the Ukraine War became inevitable.
The entire Western Bloc countries are thoroughly unreliable. They do not keep to their agreements, and, led by the United States, they engage in deception, with no intention of fulfilling their responsibilities under agreements they make. This is leading most independent countries outside the West to conclude that negotiating with the West on any of their vital interests is a pointless and fruitless endeavor.
Russia and China especially have learned this lesson over and over again. And it's no wonder neither country's leaders will even show up to conferences where they might be swarmed by American negotiators and politically cornered into agreements they know won't be upheld by the American or European side.
Russian experience with the West on Agreements such as the Minsk 1 & 2 Accords and the Black Sea Grain Deal make it obvious that any negotiated settlement to the Ukraine crisis would have eventually ended in the same way, with their Western counterparts stringing the Russians along indefinitely, while never implementing their side of the agreement.
And you see this behavior in Western Agreements across the globe: from violations of WTO Agreements originally pushed BY the US to begin with, to implementation of illegal sanctions against countries without UN agreement, the sudden rejection of the Iran Nuclear deal, the fraud of Minsk 1 & 2, the Black Sea Grain Deal nominally for the poorest countries where 70% of the grain went to wealthy EU Countries, to the expansion of NATO despite a pledge not to expand beyond the borders of East Germany. The United States has made it Crystal clear to the entire world that it is not a good faith actor and you cannot trust anything we say or any agreements we sign onto.
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2023: MSS Think Tank on "Effects of the Ukraine Crisis and Lessons Learned"
This overview from the PRC Ministry of State Security think tank — the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR) — can provide insight into some Chinese perspectives on the Ukraine-Russia war and possibly on some of the less sensitive information passed up the line to its main customer, the PRC Foreign Affairs Leading Group. I found this article on aisixiang.com [and here…
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geopoliticalmatters · 2 years
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faultfalha · 11 months
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The decision of Russia to unexpectedly exit the United Nations Black Sea Grain Initiative sent a shudder throughout the dry bulk market. On the surface, the move reeked of political maneuvering and the desire to establish a stranglehold on the global grain supply, but beneath the surface, it was a reminder of the complexities of the international commodities market. The consequences of Russia’s exit are unpredictable. Many feel it will create a price gap along the Black Sea—a destabilizing effect on global grain prices—and draw attention to the precariousness of the world’s volatile grain markets. Others feel the ramifications could be more subtle, leaving an indelible mark on the cargo sector and the regulations governing its operations. The truth of the matter is, no one can give a definite answer as to the true cost of Russia’s exit. It may create a perfect storm of economic disruption or may simply be a ripple in the global commodities market. Whatever the outcome may be, one thing is certain, the dry bulk market will never be the same again.
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mel-rhodes-place · 11 months
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NIGEL FARAGE AT CENTER OF CONTROVERSY (AGAIN)
LONDON—The collision of Brexit cheerleader Nigel Farage, a regal private bank, the BBC and the Conservative Party exploded into a quintessentially British scandal this week, costing the job of one of the country’s top bankers and igniting a debate over how lenders protect their reputations without discriminating against outspoken clients. The damage was apparent on Wednesday. Alison Rose, chief…
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timesofocean · 1 year
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Russian foreign minister says China next target of West
New Post has been published on https://www.timesofocean.com/russian-foreign-minister-says-china-next-target-of-west/
Russian foreign minister says China next target of West
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Moscow (The Times Groupe) – Russian Foreign Minister Segey Lavrov said Friday that the West is “not hiding” that China is the next target after Russia, as well as any country that “dares to act independently.” times
“They do not hide that when Russia, as they put it, is ‘defeated,’ China will be the next target as well as any country that dares to act independently and decides to be guided by its national interests, and not by what the US and the other Western countries determine,” Lavrov said, speaking at a news conference in Ankara after meeting his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu.
Western statements that it is not the right time to declare a cease-fire and arms supplies to Kyiv indicate the West does not want to resolve Ukraine’s conflict, according to Lavrov.
Furthermore, he warned that if the Russian part of the Black Sea Grain Initiative is not implemented, then Moscow may reconsider its stance and work with Qatar and Turkey to export grain.
“We were forced to go for a slight escalation and extend the grain only for 60 days. If there is no further progress, we will rethink,” he said.
As a result of the existence of “corridors of solidarity,” through which Ukraine exports its products to Europe by land routes, Lavrov said the grain deal is even more in doubt.
Turkish, UN, Russian, and Ukrainian officials signed an agreement in Istanbul last July to resume grain exports from three Ukrainian Black Sea ports that had been halted since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022. In November, the deal was extended for 120 days and in March, for another 60 days.
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in two separate incidents, mass graves including children have been found in kenya. pastor paul nthenge mackenzie and pastor ezekiel odero have both been accused of causing then covering up the deaths of nearly 100 people each in what right now seem to be unrelated circumstances.
times are tough in kenya right now. between an awful drought and the war in ukraine its been difficult to supply enough food. here is a way to donate to the world food programme kenya emergency fund in order to help prevent these tragedies
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kesarijournal · 11 months
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The Grain Games: A Tale of Threats, Famine, and Diplomatic Ping-Pong
In the grand theatre of international politics, the stage is often set with the most unexpected props. Today, it’s grain. Yes, you heard it right, grain. The humble cereal, the staff of life, has become the latest pawn in the geopolitical chessboard. And boy, what a game it’s turning out to be!Act 1: The ThreatOur story begins with a threat, as all good thrillers do. The Ukrainian military, in a…
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istumpysk · 10 months
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OPERATION ICEBERG: THE TIER LIST
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THEORY:
Daario Naharis = Euron Greyjoy
[Daario Naharis and Euron Greyjoy are the same person.]
TIER:
A Joke: These theories are an absolute joke; anyone who believes them is a fool.
[Tier list overview.]
EVIDENCE:
Fine, I suppose we'll do this.
Both Daario and Euron are similarly attractive with blue eyes, beards, and smooth, fair skin.
The Tyroshi was fair where Ser Jorah was swarthy; lithe where the knight was brawny; graced with flowing locks where the other was balding, yet smooth-skinned where Mormont was hairy.  [...] His beard was cut into three prongs and dyed blue, the same color as his eyes and the curly hair that fell to his collar. His pointed mustachios were painted gold. - Daenerys IV, ASOS
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Euron was the most comely of Lord Quellon's sons, and three years of exile had not changed that. His hair was still black as a midnight sea, with never a whitecap to be seen, and his face was still smooth and pale beneath his neat dark beard. A black leather patch covered Euron's left eye, but his right was blue as a summer sky. - The Iron Captain, AFFC
Both Daario and Euron exhibit grandiosity, mockery, and a violent, bloodthirsty, brutal, and dangerous nature.
Dany was appalled. He is a monster. A gallant monster, but a monster still. "Do you take me for the Butcher King?" "Better the butcher than the meat. All kings are butchers. Are queens so different?" - Daenerys IV, ADWD
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"Just so," said Euron, "and for that sin I kill them all. I spill their blood upon the sea and sow their screaming women with my seed. Their little gods cannot stop me, so plainly they are false gods. I am more devout than even you, Aeron. Perhaps it should be you who kneels to me for blessing." - The Iron Captain, AFFC
Daario commands the Stormcrows, while Euron, known as Crow's Eye, is often likened to a storm.
"Khaleesi," he cried, "I bring gifts and glad tidings. The Stormcrows are yours." A golden tooth gleamed in his mouth when he smiled. "And so is Daario Naharis!" - Daenerys IV, ASOS
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I have seen the storm, and its name is Euron Crow's Eye. - The Prophet, AFFC
Daario is frequently absent in Meereen, while Euron's location was unknown during Daenerys' initial conquests in Slaver's Bay.
The most crucial task of all she had entrusted to Daario Naharis, glib-tongued Daario with his gold tooth and trident beard, smiling his wicked smile through purple whiskers. Beyond the eastern hills was a range of rounded sandstone mountains, the Khyzai Pass, and Lhazar. If Daario could convince the Lhazarene to reopen the overland trade routes, grains could be brought down the river or over the hills at need … - Daenerys I, ADWD
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"I want them gone. Let them scout the Yunkish hinterlands and give protection to any caravans coming over the Khyzai Pass. Henceforth Daario shall make his reports to you. Give him every honor that is due him and see that his men are well paid, but on no account admit him to my presence." - Daenerys IV, ADWD
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Only Daario had been given to the Yunkai'i, a hostage to ensure no harm came to the Yunkish captains. - Daenerys X, ADWD
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Asha slid her dirk out of its sheath and began to clean the dirt from beneath her fingernails. "Three years away, and the Crow's Eye returns the very day my father dies." - The Kraken's Daughter, AFFC
Daario gained considerable loot from the sack of Yunkai, while Euron had significant spoils for the Kingsmoot.
Daario had plundered himself a whole new wardrobe in Meereen, and to match it he had redyed his trident beard and curly hair a deep rich purple. - Daenerys VI, ASOS
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The mutes and mongrels from the Silence threw open Euron's chests and spilled out his gifts before the captains and the kings. Then it was Hotho Harlaw the priest heard, as he filled his hands with gold. - The Drowned Man, AFFC
Daenerys is infatuated with Daario, while Euron is certain he will wed her.
Her love for Daario is poison. A slower poison than the locusts, but in the end as deadly. - The Kingbreaker, ADWD
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"[...] No, to make an heir that's worthy of him, I need a different woman. When the kraken weds the dragon, brother, let all the world beware." - The Reaver, AFFC
Daario hails from Tyrosh, while Euron disguised Ironborn as Tyroshi.
"It grieves me that honest men must suffer such discourtesy, but sooner that than ironmen in Oldtown. Only a fortnight ago some of those bloody bastards captured a Tyroshi merchantman in the straits. They killed her crew, donned their clothes, and used the dyes they found to color their whiskers half a hundred colors. Once inside the walls they meant to set the port ablaze and open a gate from within whilst we fought the fire. Might have worked, but they ran afoul of the Lady of the Tower, and her oarsmaster has a Tyroshi wife. When he saw all the green and purple beards he hailed them in the tongue of Tyrosh, and not one of them had the words to hail him back." - Samwell V, AFFC
Euron is thought to use warlock magic to control the winds for faster sailing, which, according to many, might allow him to travel at the speed of light.
"Do I command the winds?" the Crow's Eye asked his pets. "No, Your Grace," said Orkwood of Orkmont. "No man commands the winds," said Germund Botley. "Would that you did," the Red Oarsman said. "You would sail wherever you liked and never be becalmed." - The Iron Captain, AFFC
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The wind was at their backs, as it had been all the way down from Old Wyk. It was whispered about the fleet that Euron's wizards had much and more to do with that, that the Crow's Eye appeased the Storm God with blood sacrifice. How else would he have dared sail so far to the west, instead of following the shoreline as was the custom? - The Reaver, AFFC
Compelling stuff.
Other things to consider:
Both Daario and Euron are primarily attracted to Daenerys for her power and dragons.
Daario has no family, friends, or known history.
Daario's gold tooth could be artificial, while Euron's blue lips might be temporary.
Daenerys experiences multiple visions and warnings about Euron, including those in the House of the Undying and from Quaithe. She and others also see Daario as a detrimental influence.
If Euron is so set on acquiring dragons, why would he be preoccupied with the Shield Islands and the Arbor instead of focusing on Daenerys and Slaver's Bay? Shouldn't he be in Meereen?
Some speculate that Euron has warging abilities, eliminating the need for him to physically sail back and forth between Slaver's Bay and Westeros.
Apparently George R. R. Martin once hinted that Daario is more complex than he initially seems.
COUNTER-EVIDENCE:
It defies the laws of physics?
Are parts of this fandom seriously not familiar with the concept of parallel characters?
STUMPY'S THOUGHTS:
Kudos to those who've noticed the intentional similarities between these two characters, even if no one is asking what that implies about Daenerys.
That said, if you genuinely believe this theory, you're officially ...
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a bozo.
VOTE:
I welcome discussions. Feel free to reblog, respond, or challenge my perspective — I won't be offended by any of it.
Please note, if "no" is the eventual winner, or if it's competitive, a second poll will be conducted to determine the proper location.
NEXT THEORY:
The miller's boys were Theon's sons.
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cheapsweets · 4 months
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The assiduous Kengliwa
My response to this week’s BestiaryPosting challenge from @maniculum
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Was slightly rushed with this one, been trying to get ideas without leaning too hard into what this creature is probably meant to be...
Jinhao shark fountain pen with a fine, hooded nib, with Monteverde Raven Noir ink, over initial pencil sketch.
As ever, reasoning under the cut…
The Kengliwa has three characteristics. The first is that they march in line, each one carrying a grain of corn in its mouth. Those who have none do not say to the others: ‘Give us some of your grain’, but follow the tracks of those who first went out to the place where they find the corn and carry it off to their nest. The Kengliwa’s second characteristic is that when it stores grain in its nest, it divides its supply in two, lest by chance it should be soaked in the winter rains, the seed germinate and the Kengliwa die of hunger. The Kengliwa’s third characteristic is that at harvest time it walks through the crop and finds out by nibbling the ears whether it is barley or wheat. If the crop is barley, the Kengliwa goes to another ear and sniffs it, and if it smells wheat, it climbs to the top of the ear and carries off the grain to its nest. For barley is food for beasts.
Okay, three core characteristics - marches in line, divides grain in two in its nest, and likes wheat, not grain. I can see how if I were to write a bestiary, and especially if I had a handy illustration beside the text, I may also be inclined to focus my writing on the behaviour of this weird critter, rather than its physical description. However, that does not help me work out even remotely what manner of animal the Kengliwa is...
...or does it? Clearly, this is a social animal, that lives in large groups. It's quite risk-averse, but most importantly, it doesn't eat barley, "For barley is food for beasts"...
Silly Kengliwa! Barley is for Beasts!
Now, generalising massively, we can categorise medieval creatures into a number of types; beasts (which live on the land), birds (which generally have feathers, and generally fly, except when they don't), serpents/reptiles (which crawl, including snakes and amphibians), fish (live in the sea) and worms (including insects). We specifically know it isn't a beast (since it turns its tiny nose up at barley), isn't a fish since it's clearly not keen on water, so its a bit of a toss up between serpent, worm or bird. We do know that it lives in a nest though, and you know what else lives in nests? Birds! Bingo!
We don't have any indicator of size, but given that each Kengliwa carries a single grain of wheat in its mouth, I've deduced that they must be pretty small; as amusing as emu-sized critters rampaging through a field would be (for me, not for the farmer...), I don't think that a creature as industrious as a Kengliwa would find carrying a single grain of wheat at a time particularly efficient unless it was pretty tiny!
For the Kengliwa has no knowledge of cultivation; it has no-one to force it do anything; nor does it act under the direction of a master, telling it how to lay in a store of food. Yet it gathers in its harvest from your labours. And although you often go hungry, it lacks for nothing. It has no locked storehouses, no impenetrable security, no piles of supplies which cannot be touched. The watchman looks on at thefts which he dares not prevent, the owner is aware of his losses but takes no revenge. They carry their booty in a black column across the fields, the paths swarming with the convoy as it passes; the grains that cannot be held in their narrow mouths in narrow parts are consigned to their shoulders. The owner of the harvest looks on and blushes with shame at the thought of denying such frugal gains won by such conscientious industry.
I'm getting slightly mixed messages from the author here - the Kengliwa gathers food from others labours, even as they go hungry, but we also have acknowledgement that what it does take is meagre, and we almost have a mote of admiration at the end. If this creature has some kind of religious symbology (and its a medieval bestiary, so changes are, yes...), it's going to be weird...
We also know that it has quite a narrow mouth (which fits with having a beak). I've drawn them carrying the grains on their shoulders/backs (supported in some cases by their wings) when they are making their way through narrow underground tunnels, and beaks when they are outside or maneuvering the grains in their vaults.
We also have a little more details about the colouration... not so useful for me with the (tiny) lineart, but it all helps!
Have a slightly confused looking farmer, observing the Kengwilas as they make off with some grain...
The Kengliwa has also learned to watch out for periods of fine weather. For if it sees that its supplies of corn are becoming wet, soaked by the rain, it carefully tests the air for signs of a mild spell, then it opens up its stores, and carries its supplies on its shoulders from its vaults underground out into the open, so that the corn can dry in the unbroken sunshine. Finally, you will never on any of those days see rain spouted from the clouds, unless the Kengliwa has first returned its supplies of corn to its stores.
Okay, we now know that they keep their grain underground... A bit weird for a bird, but not unknown (we get puffins, burrowing owls, etc, even if some of them do steal burrows from other critters).
Have some underground grain vaults! Note that one of them is higher than the other, so if the nest does get flooded, at least one of the chambers should be okay. I drew the nest in a similar style to the nest of the Rubkawat, though I wonder if these nests are lines more with roots than with twigs...
Yes, I now know more about the difference between wheat and barley than I ever hoped for!
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mariacallous · 18 days
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Authoritarian states’ traditional approach to conflict outside their borders is to choose sides—supplying political-diplomatic support and military muscle to their allies—or to freeze the conflict while keeping a hand in to stir the pot and shape possible outcomes. Russia has done both: the first by backing Syria’s Bashar al Assad against various rebel movements, and the second by trying to dominate the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Authoritarians are not known for expending resources on peacemaking ventures with uncertain outcomes. Nor do they focus on good governance norms after a settlement. They are often content to consolidate the power and standing of local authoritarians.
Yet that pattern seems to be shifting. Today, we are witnessing a number of authoritarian or semi-authoritarian states engage in mediation, and conflict management. China has mediated between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Qatar has led talks between Israel and Hamas, and Turkey has done the same between Russia and Ukraine leading to the Black Sea Grain deal that lapsed last year.
In an attempt at heavy-handed conflict management, Russia tried to freeze the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and sent in peacekeepers in 2020 but  stood  aside when the Azerbaijani forces took decisive action to seize the disputed territory three years later. Such activities are pursued by a wide range of nominal and quasi-democracies, military governments, presidential one-party states, and monarchies.
The impact of this surge in authoritarian peacemaking gets less attention than it deserves. Authoritarian states are buffeting the peacemaking diplomacy of Western states, blocking or undercutting Western initiatives and challenging Western leadership of the global peacemaking agenda. The most obvious impact has been the global polarization that creates gridlock in the U.N. Security Council, undercuts support for U.N. peace operations and saps coherence around critical norms such as human rights and individual freedoms.
This pattern constrains what the U.N. can do in conflict management, mediation and peacebuilding. It also directly challenges the ability of NGOs to work for dialogue and reconciliation in fragile and war-torn places such as Georgia where pro-Russian parties are imposing Russian-style controls on the activity of NGOs that receive external support. Such action undermines the unofficial playbook for peacemaking and good governance.
By pushing back against Western conceptions about managing conflict, authoritarian peacemaking is part-and-parcel of a more general global backlash against intrusive and interventionist western policies that may undercut the perceived authority and legitimacy of incumbent regimes.
This backlash privileges state sovereignty against notions about “global” norms relating to rights and governance. Sadly, the U.S. government has made the undermining of international norms easier by adopting double standards on civilian protection and human rights law in Ukraine and Gaza. Such conduct actually helps China attack American soft power in Africa and undercuts U.S. diplomatic efforts at the U.N.
But the authoritarian surge is not necessarily either effective or coherent. Consider, for example, the difficulty experienced by Egypt’s military regime and Qatar’s monarchy in bringing Hamas and Israel to a deal, even with strong backing from the U.S. and other Western and Arab states. Regional authoritarians have not been notably successful in bringing about peace and stability in Libya and have aggravated rather than alleviated its internal clan and tribal factionalism.
They have failed to cohere effectively for peace in Yemen. Regional authoritarians made Syria’s tragic civil war divisions worse before ceding the field to the Russians. In all these cases, the authoritarians ran into the hard realities of intractable conflicts where the local parties have plenty of weapons and have not yet exhausted their unilateral options. In some cases, they made the problem worse.
At first glance, it might appear that authoritarian states bring certain advantages to the table. One attribute is internal unity of command and policy coherence at the level of the individual state. Unlike liberal states, they can potentially bring not only a whole of government approach but also a whole of society focus in their strategy for dealing with conflicts. Messy internal policy debates do not bother them. Authoritarians generally place top priority on achieving stability and creating a favorable context for advancing regime interests, and their policies are best understood as transactional.
In practice the record of their approaches is quite mixed. In one model, for the transactions to succeed, it is necessary for the existing regime or the “winner” in a civil war to be capable of being a reliable partner to the external authoritarian conflict manager. In a second model, the authoritarian goal is to back a factional side—either to exploit natural resources or block an adversary or rival state, or perhaps both.
The idea of a negotiated settlement may not be a priority or be viewed as less desirable than some degree of continued instability. This scenario can slide into a third model in which rival authoritarians seek to impose a favorable outcome on the country and compete with rival external powers through the provision of military and political support. While authoritarian states may have internal coherence, they are often in conflict with other states.
It is not clear that any of these models is good for peace or for the lives of ordinary civilians. In the case of Syria, Russia prevailed by applying the first model, carpet-bombing cities to help the local authoritarian prevail, imposing a very cold peace. But it is not clear that authoritarian states will be successful in imposing outright victories in many other situations.
The case of Libya provides a vivid illustration of what can happen with the second model when outsiders pile in to pursue their varied agendas: In this case Egypt, Russia, the UAE, and the Saudis (to say nothing of the French) decided to support Gen. Khalifa Haftar’s designs against the U.N.-recognized unity government in Tripoli, backed by Turkey, Qatar, Italy, and the United States.
Commercial, strategic, and ideological agendas coursed across the strife-torn land, leading a succession of U.N. special envoys to resign in frustration, blaming the Libyan factions (rather than their backers) for a lack of political will to work for reconciliation and create conditions for holding elections. Libya’s disorder does not remain in Libya, as the neighboring Sudanese can attest.
In the case of the Ethiopia-Tigray civil war in 2020 to 2022, the Ethiopians enjoyed military support from the authoritarian regime of Eritrea as well as Turkey, Iran, and the UAE. But it was the African Union-based mediation of former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo supported by former Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta and senior envoys of the U.S. and South African governments negotiated an end to the fighting. This followed the Ethiopian government’s ability to impose itself militarily on Tigray at a key moment in 2022 thanks to Turkish drones—though the country is still facing insurgents in other regions.
But it is clear that Sudan is not endowed with such resources for conflict management, despite the high hopes generated by the internationally celebrated Juba Accord of October 2020 between its transitional government and a range of rebel movements. Two and a half years later, the current civil war erupted, causing the gravest humanitarian crisis in the world, affecting some 6.6 million internally displaced persons and 2 million refugees fleeing into neighboring countries.
Rival military factions are tearing the country apart while attracting external authoritarians like flies to flypaper. The Saudis and the United States continue to host peace efforts, but Sudan’s military leaders enjoy widespread backing from authoritarian states: The regime’s forces are aided by Egypt, the Saudis, and Iran while the rival Rapid Support Forces are allied with Libya’s Haftar, the Chad regime of Mahamat Deby, plus the Russians, the UAE, and an assortment of allies in neighboring states. This is the second model with a vengeance, and it looks increasingly like it is sliding into the third model of authoritarian rivals pushing their proxies to the finish.
Spectacles like these do not seem to augur well for the peacemaking business. They undercut the potential for international organizations to play their traditional role. The Security Council regularly takes up the Sudan file but is prevented by gridlock from naming names and using serious pressure to stop the fighting. The UAE strenuously denies its role in fueling the fighting in an unholy alliance including Haftar and Deby, and the western permanent members of the Security Council are well aware they cannot ignore likely vetoes from China and Russia.
At the regional level, African Union members are divided, and the Gulf Cooperation Council is hampered by the intense feuding between the Saudis and the UAE. Sudan is a laboratory case of how warring factions export their divisions to external sponsors who return the favor by exporting their own divisions back into the conflict.
At first glance, all of this may look bad for the United States and, more generally, the West because it points to the erosion of the West’s hard and soft power. High-minded efforts at conflict management and good governance contend face-to-face with the most cynical practitioners of transactional statecraft. However, U.S. diplomats need a closer look at peacemaking cases to understand how U.S. statecraft can sometimes be effective in corralling recalcitrant antagonists, operating behind the scenes or employing more of an invisible hand.
When necessary, the United States is capable of standing back and advancing its interests by empowering others, sharing credit, and borrowing leverage and even credibility from other players, including the transactional authoritarians, however unprincipled they are.
During the Balkan wars of the 1990s, it fell to the U.S. government to knock mostly authoritarian heads and impose a stop to the fighting. Representatives of the U.K., France, Germany, Italy, Russia, and the European Union attended the Dayton peace conference. In the case of Colombia’s long civil conflicts, Washington first deployed diplomatic leadership via Plan Colombia and helped shape the balance of power between the government and the Marxist rebels of the FARC.
In the next phase, the U.S. government operated more indirectly via a special envoy who participated discreetly in a process led by Cuba and Norway with facilitator countries Venezuela and Chile, all loosely coordinating with major European and neighboring states, the U.N., and the E.U., leading to the 2016 Colombian peace accords. Washington played its hand decisively but less visibly in the Northern Ireland process leading to the 1998 Good Friday agreement.
This less direct public face of peacemaking has a history. In 1905, Theodore Roosevelt indirectly maneuvered Tsarist Russia and imperial Japan to terminate a hugely costly war, leaving the visible negotiation to the direct parties. He never personally visited the conference table in Portsmouth, New Hampshire, but actively communicated with relevant governments and, in effect, borrowed leverage from authoritarian and democratic states alike, while blocking alternative approaches. The process required Roosevelt to navigate the politics of two authoritarian regimes which could not admit their need for his help.
Fast forward to the 1980s and 1990s when U.S. negotiators borrowed leverage from allies and erstwhile adversaries in bringing authoritarian regimes to make peace in Southern Africa (working with the British, Portuguese, and other Western allies as well as the Soviets, Cubans, Zambians, Congolese, Cape Verdeans, Mozambicans and the U.N. Secretariat), and to avert civil war in Ethiopia (working with Sweden, Britain, the Soviets, Israel, Sudan, and the Marxist-oriented rebel Eritrean and Tigrayan movements).
This is not a brand-new way of operating but one that could become more common in an age of multiple overlapping alignments where other states are partners on some issues and troublesome obstacles on others. It could also be less of a drain on the political capital available to presidents and secretaries of state. To work, it requires top level officials to delegate and a willingness to work closely with friends, partners, and other parties they wouldn’t want to bring home for dinner.
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cainluvr69 · 6 months
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Surely, We Can Make Miracles Chapter 18
Previous Chapter
Akira: …!
The sound of water roared in my ears as I sank down, down, down to the bottom of the deep, dark sea. Countless bubbles filtered up past me, brushing against my skin as they continued their path up to the surface. My wizards were framed by halos of thin and fleeting light, looking like messengers from the moon as they descended through the water. The initial big splash faded into quiet burbling, and then that too faded into a quiet stillness. The nighttime sea was different from the sea during the day; for one thing, it was pitch black. The icy chill of fear and anxiety seeped into my limbs. If not for the feeling of Oz's hand in mine, I'm sure I would've started panicking on the spot. Several of the younger wizards looked scared, too. But with their comrades there to act as examples, they, too, began to calm down. I, on the other hand, had completely stopped breathing in my fear and had to force myself to take a breath.
Akira: (Ah… I can breathe just fine.) (I wonder how it works. Well, as long as it does work…)
Thanks to magic, I was still able to breathe, even this far underwater. As I took deep breaths in and out in wonder, I gradually started feeling calmer. I recalled what Murr had told us just a little earlier. I needed to have fun. I needed to let my world open up more. With those words in mind, I looked around at the night-dark ocean.
Akira: (Woah…)
It was like opening my eyes to a still, quiet paradise. The light of the moon streamed through the surface of the water, as if it were drawing a path for us to follow--and follow we did, tracing its glowing steps deeper into the ocean. There were…I'm not sure exactly what they actually were, but there were what looked like little sparkling grains of sand floating through the water, glittering like stars. There was coral that glowed with a gentle radiance, and vividly colored fish that caught that radiance on their scales.
Chloe: It's so pretty…
Rustica: We've stepped foot into a veritable wonderland.
Rutile: We really have! Any other time, I'd want to go back up and bring Mitile down to see this, too.
Cain: We should come back once everything's all settled! Ah… I can talk normally…
Arthur: What a beautiful world… It's just as Murr said.
Murr: Riiiight?
Everyone's eyes sparkled as they excitedly looked around at the underwater garden that surrounded us. Illuminated by the moonlight above, everyone's hair was floating weightlessly in the water, swaying with the currents. It was as if we'd stepped foot into the canvas of a painting.
Heathcliff: Ah, Vespa?!
Vespa was pulling on one of Heathcliff's arms, spinning him around. Until now, this darling mermaid had been carried in Heathcliff's arms, but now that she was back in the ocean, she was even more animated and quick in her motions.
Shino: Hey! Don't pull on Heath.
Heathcliff: Wah, she's so fast… Wait, hold on a second…!
Vespa: …! …!
Cain: Woah…!
Faust: That's more speed than I was expecting…
Vespa flipped her tail and vigorously swam deeper into the sea.
Heathcliff: …Where are you going? Is that where all your friends are?
Vespa: …! …!
Heathcliff: I think she's going to take us to the cage where the other mermaids have been imprisoned!
At some point, Vespa and Heathcliff, who had been at each other's side since they first met… Had learned to communicate with another no longer through drawings, but simply through the expressions on one another's face. Shino smiled as he watched them, looking like he was recalling some nice memory or another.
Heathcliff: What?
Shino: Nah, I'll tell you later.
Faust: Does everyone think they can keep up?
Chloe: I think so… Rustica, how are you doing?
Rustica: I'm just fine. What do you think, Cain?
Cain: …Yep, things are working out somehow! Alright, this way!
Faust: It's the same as flying through the sky on your broom. Ride the current and reduce drag… Wah…!
Rutile: I've figured out the trick to it! I think I'll be able to catch up to Vespa!
Murr: Let's goooo!
Rutile: Okay!
Faust: Be sure you don't get too far away from the rest of the group! Murr, keep an eye on him!
My wizards swam through the neverending world of blue like a school of fish. Arthur was so deeply moved by the undersea garden that he was smiling like a schoolboy as he looked up at Oz.
Arthur: It's so beautiful down here… There's so many adventures I want to set out on.
A smile finally broke through the stoic expression on Oz's face.
Oz: I can only imagine how much of this world you want to see and investigate for yourself.
Arthur: Oh, all of it. I'm so happy to find out there's a whole new world I don't know a thing about yet.
A school of long, thin fish drifted between Oz and Arthur. I met Arthur's gaze, and smiled. Snow, White, Shylock, Lennox, Hwylryn… Worry was still playing on my nerves, but the fact that I was here, seeing such a wonderful world in the flesh… It was something I never wanted to forget.
✦✧☾✧✦
Faust: Oz. Were the imprisoned mermaids around this area?
Oz: Yes.
Vespa: …! …!
Heathcliff: Vespa is telling us to hide!
Cain: Wh-- How?!
Shino: Won't you have a perfectly good place if you move just a little more forward?
Chloe: Wait! I think I have a spell that'd be perfect for this! <Suispicibo Voitengok>!
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Chloe recited his spell, and it was like it rippled out, weaving through the seawater. If I paid close attention, I could see a bolt of fabric the same gentle blue as the water around us spreading through the water, shrouding us from view.
Rutile: Amazing…! No one will be able to see us from far away like this!
Chloe: I'm soooo happy it worked! This is the kind of magic I've been working on lately! I came up with this by using magic cloth I bought at the flea market in the Town of Foam! It was honestly pretty hard to get, but… Ah, sorry! I can talk about that later!
Chloe had gotten caught up in talking, but when he saw Vespa fidgeting nervously, he snapped his mouth shut in a hurry. Heathcliff shook his head, looking even more apologetic than Chloe did.
Heathcliff: I'm sorry. I want to hear more about the magic cloth later when we can take our time with it…
Shino: By the way, since she told us to hide, what's out there for us to hide from?
Heathcliff: Umm…
Heathcliff poked his head out of the magic cloth a little bit, just to peek out at what else was out there.
Heathcliff: I can see something that looks like a cage, but there are mermaids armed with spears swimming just in front of it.
Faust: They sound dangerous. Should we be thinking of them as enemies?
Vespa: …! …!
Vespa shook her head vigorously, a sad look on her face. I didn't think that was all she had to tell us, though. She was trying to make some kind of appeal to us with her big motions and gestures as she darted back and forth in the water.
Akira: We shouldn't attack them…?
Faust: That seems to be the message here.
Oz: I can feel Balthazar's magic. I imagine those mermaids are being puppeteered.
Akira: By Balthazar…
I thought about the mermaids that had deferred to Hwylryn.
Akira: I saw mermaids obeying Hwylryn, too. Is he a tyrant lording over the mermaids, too…?
It was entirely possible that Hwylryn was the reason Vespa and her friends were suffering. I looked at Oz, complicated feelings swirling in my chest. But he just gently shook his head, a delicately small gesture.
Oz: Dragons hold dominion over the natural world. Both spirits and magical creatures are naturally drawn to them. If there is a sea dragon in these waters, then it is only natural that the mermaids that live here would obey it.
Arthur: In the same way that spirits are naturally drawn to and obey you, Lord Oz?
Oz: Yes.
Vespa: …! …!
Heathcliff: …Ah! Vespa!
I turned my head towards Heathcliff's voice, and saw the tip of a spear pierced through the magic cloth. We'd been noticed. The spear-wielding mermaids tore through Chloe's magic cloth, revealing themselves. Their faces were pale, and their eyes were dark, cavernous voids.
Chloe: Vespa, watch out…!
Vespa: …!
One of the spears was aimed directly at her, intent on running her through. Cain caught the edge of the blade before it could touch her.
Cain: Vespa, run…!
Vespa: …!
Cain: Is there any way we can break through the brainwashing or put them to sleep?!
Rustica: Allow me. <Amores Viesse>
Rustica recited his spell, but it sounded more like a gentle song, echoing through the sea like through a music hall. When the song reached the spear-wielding mermaids' ears, it was like they were jolted back to their senses. Slowly but surely, their blank eyes began to refocus on what was in front of them, the melody of the song catching their attention.
Faust: Are they starting to wake up…? Is Balthazar's control being undone?
Rustica shook his head a bit, not once pausing in his song.
Faust: I see…
Faust had obviously been hoping this would be enough to free Lennox. He pressed his lips together in a tight line, frustrated. Rustica, on the other hand, was enjoying himself--his hands were moving as a conductor's would, holding an invisible baton. The mermaids followed his motions as though they were his orchestra. Their long hair floated in the water, bubbles dancing around their seashell barettes. It didn't take long for them to drop their spears. As their weapons sank down to the bottom of the sea, the mermaids closed their eyes, falling into a gentle, peaceful sleep. Chloe gathered up his magic cloth. We had managed to stealthily make our way to a large reef that had been fashioned into something similar to a jail.
✦✧☾✧✦
The reef "jail" was similar in construction to a three-story building. Beyond the many ash-grey pillars--I couldn't tell if they were made of coral or of stone--were the imprisoned mermaids.
Akira: (Woah… There's so many mermaids…)
There was something oddly captivating about them, and I felt my hardened heart dance in my chest. Now that I thought of it, though, I hadn't let myself feel anything for Vespa, and I hadn't even properly introduced myself to her, either. I took a deep breath. It's important to not get so mired in your sadness that you can't pull yourself free from it. We startled the mermaids as we drew closer to the bars of the cage, and they swam in deeper, hiding themselves. Vespa swam right up to the bars, calling out to the fleeing mermaids. Oz took me and advanced behind her, before taking a moment to address her.
Oz: Stand back.
Vespa: …?! …?!
Oz: I am going to destroy their cage.
Vespa: …?! …?!
Shino: Vespa, come here!
Shino beckoned Vespa over to him. Vespa darted towards him, away from the bars of the cage. I squeezed Oz's hand tightly, my heart pounding in my chest. Was his spell going to succeed?
Akira: (It will… I'm sure it will.) (I need to believe in myself… In myself, and in Oz!)
Oz: <Vox Nox>
A weak light trailed out of Oz's staff and made contact with the bars of the cliffside prison--and then those same bars crumbled away as if they were made of sand.
Arthur: Yay! It worked! Master Sage! Lord Oz!
Akira: It did!
Faust: Now we can ask Vespa's siblings about where to find Balthazar and the cintamani stone of medicine.
We exchanged grins as we waited for the mermaids to leave their broken jail. But there was absolutely no sign that they had any intention of leaving.
Shino: … Hey. Isn't it taking the fish a while to come out?
Heathcliff: Don't call them that.
Murr: Hey, Oz, you didn't kill 'em all out of habit, did you?
Oz: …Hmm…
Arthur: I'll go check things out!
Rutile: It might just be that they're scared! Like how little fishies hide themselves even when you're just looking at them…
Heathcliff: That's certainly possible. Why don't we just wait a little farther away and see what happens?
Akira: Good idea! Let's all back off a little… Let's wait for them to come out on their own!
We put a bit of distance between us and their cage, and once we were comfortably far away, we waited for the mermaids to come out of their own accord.
Rutile: Are they out yet? How about now?
Chloe: Everything's okay! You can come out now!
Rustica: Ah, there they come now.
Heathcliff: You're right! Ah…
But the mermaids vacated the area at an impressive speed, scattering to the vast sea as fast as their tails could take them.
Heathcliff: Ah, ah, ahhh…!
Akira: Wa--wait…!
Murr: Speedy…!
Shino: They're so ungrateful…!
Faust: <Salliuq…> Dammit! I bit my tongue…!
Rustica: It makes sense that they'd want to leave in such a rush. I understand completely.
Cain: That's fish for you! I let my guard down because I was thinking of them like women.
Arthur: Lord Oz, what should we do…? If we follow them intending to capture one, we'll only frighten them more, won't we?
Shino: Stop talking like a feral child when you've got the face of a pure-hearted prince.
Vespa was in a tizzy, swimming back and forth in a figure eight--and then Oz recited his spell again.
Oz: <Vox Nox>
Orbs of light scattered in all directions. A few moments later, a number of the mermaids were dragged back to us through the water, wrapped in a soft light. As they drew towards us, they started struggling, clearly scared. Vespa swam in a circle around them, desperately explaining what was going on, but the mermaids were staring straight at the seafloor, and none of them raised their heads to look at her. That was when Rutile spoke up.
Rutile: Oh… They look like they're hurt.
Akira: Huh?
Just as Rutile had said, there were a number of shallow cuts on the mermaids' arms and tails.
Faust: I imagine they hurt themselves in their haste to escape their prison, rather than being injured by a magical attack.
Rutile: Oh, how terrible…
Rutile approached the mermaids unhesitatingly, looking at them with concern. He retrieved his magical focus, his feather pen, and smiled at the fearful mermaids.
Rutile: Just stay still, okay… This won't hurt a bit. <Ortonik Setomaouge>
Rutile chanted his spell, and then the mermaids' injuries were wrapped in a gentle light. At first, they were scared, but as the swelling around their cuts went down, they looked up at Rutile in curiosity. Their painful-looking cuts closed up, one after the other, leaving nothing but the faint outline of where they used to be. They weren't perfectly healed, but it was still enough to free them from their pain and wariness of us. Perhaps in a display of both gratitude and fascination, the mermaids began to swim around Rutile in a circle, spinning around.
Rutile: My… How pretty…!
Vespa smoothly added herself to their circle. She grabbed Heathcliff's arm and dragged him into the circle, too. She swam between Heathcliff and the rest of us, and over the top of us, too--probably explaining to her friends what was going on. While she did that, the mermaids split into two groups. Vespa returned to Heathcliff's side and explained…something to him, using nothing but gestures.
Heathcliff: Erm… The ship is this way…and Balthazar is that way…?
Vespa: …! …!
Chloe: It's amazing that you got all that, Heath…
Shino: It's because he's attentive when it comes to other people. I understand that much. Or at least I think I'm starting to.
Chloe: Shino…
Shino: …He was the same way with me. I used to never have someone who'd check on me when I wasn't feeling well. The most I got was people peeking at me in fear when I attacked them. No one wanted to let a kid as filthy as me dirty up their line of sight. But…
Shino's red eyes were fixed on Heathcliff's back. Heathcliff, however, was looking at Vespa, doing his absolute best to understand what she was thinking. Shino smiled softly, seeing him like that.
Shino: Heath tried to learn things about me. What was I thinking about… What I wanted, what made me upset. That kind of thing. No one had ever cared about those things before. Instead, they just wanted to know what I wanted from them, when I was going to get out of their hair, and how they could get rid of me. Pretty sure that was all they thought, at least. Thinking back on how I used to be, I'm pretty certain of it. But Heathcliff cared about me when everyone else in the world treated me like trash not worth the effort of so much as glancing at. He was serious about it, and polite about it… Even though he was scared, he still cared about me. So, I… I wanted to treasure him just as much… That was how I felt.
Shino's heartrending sighs turned into bubbles, floating up to the water's surface. Across from him, Vespa was gesturing with her arms spread wide. Her blonde hair floated gently in the water, rippling like sunlight. Heathcliff was watching her very seriously, nodding at what she had to tell him. Sometimes he'd look puzzled and frown a little. But when he understood something, he smiled happily. Even though Heathcliff was lit by nothing but moonlight right now, Shino narrowed his eyes when he looked at him, as if he were dazzlingly radiant.
Shino: I remember now. Before I met him, I hated his guts for being the Blanchett heir, always adored and blessed from the day he was born. If Heath… If Heath wasn't the person he is inside, I never could've become friends with him. For the first time, I wasn't being rejected for who I was, and someone really cared about me… That's why I love him.
Shino's voice cracked and faded into the sound of the water around us, so I couldn't quite make out what he'd said there at the end. Faust gently put a hand on his shoulder.
Faust: Well done… You found the words you needed to convey how you feel.
Shino: Can I even say them to him? It's so embarrassing…
Normally Shino couldn't get enough of singing Heathcliff's praises, but right now, I could see a dusting of a blush over his cheeks. But Faust didn't laugh at him. He just spoke softly.
Faust: You should tell people the things you want to when you can. Before you regret not doing so.
Shino: Faust…
Heathcliff: Master Sage, Mr. Faust! I got it!
That was when Heathcliff and Vespa swam back over to us.
Heathcliff: The sunken ship with the cintamani stone and Balthazar's undersea city are in two different directions! Vespa's sisters can lead us to either of them…
Cain: Two different places…
Arthur: So we'll need to split into two groups.
Next Chapter
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geopoliticalmatters · 2 years
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faultfalha · 11 months
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The Russian Federation's departure from the United Nations Black Sea Grain Initiative will have a significant impact on the global dry bulk market. The Kremlin's decision to abandon the project came as a surprise to many observers, as Russia has been a vocal supporter of the initiative since its inception. It is unclear why the Russian government has decided to withdraw from the project, but analysts say that the move is likely a sign of Moscow's dissatisfaction with the current state of the global grain market.
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ukrainenews · 1 year
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Daily Wrap Up March 16, 2023
Under the cut:
A remarkable video released by the Pentagon shows the moments before a Russian fighter crashed into a $32m US Reaper drone after spraying it with jet fuel on Tuesday morning over the Black Sea. The declassified footage shows an Su-27 Flanker jet making two exceptionally close passes of the uncrewed drone, spraying fuel in front of it, a harassment tactic that US experts say has not been seen before.
Poland will become the first country to deliver fighter jets to Ukraine in the next few days, marking a significant upward step in military backing for Kyiv ahead of an expected counter-offensive. The precedent, involving four Soviet-era MiG-29s as a first instalment, could lead to other Nato members providing warplanes, a longstanding Ukrainian request.
Negotiations about a possible conversation between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are ongoing, but it is too early to say whether a conversation will actually take place, according to a Ukrainian presidential adviser.
Ahead of the Black Sea grain agreement expiring this weekend, the United Nations emphasized that the deal states it would be extended for 120 days — even though Russia said it agreed to a 60-day extension of the deal after negotiations in Geneva on Monday. The Black Sea Grain Initiative is an agreement between Ukraine and Russia, brokered by the UN and Turkey, that was established in July 2022 to guarantee safe passage for ships carrying grain and oilseeds ��� some of Ukraine's most important exports.  
Russian attacks were reported in Donetsk, Kherson, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, and Luhansk oblasts in the east, south, and north of Ukraine over the past 24 hours. According to local authorities, one person was killed, and 14 were wounded. Russian attacks killed one civilian in Bakhmut and injured 11 more in Donetsk Oblast, Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko reported in his morning update on March 16. Russia hit ten settlements and three communities in the region, damaging over 25 houses, five high-rises, a school, an educational institution, and cars, said Kyrylenko.
(Content warning: Torture, rape.) Russia has committed wide-ranging war crimes in Ukraine such as wilful killings and torture, a U.N.-mandated investigative body said on Thursday, in some cases making children watch loved ones being raped and detaining others alongside dead bodies. The alleged crimes, including the deportation of children, were detailed in a report by the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine, which said some acts may amount to crimes against humanity.
“A remarkable video released by the Pentagon shows the moments before a Russian fighter crashed into a $32m US Reaper drone after spraying it with jet fuel on Tuesday morning over the Black Sea.
The declassified footage shows an Su-27 Flanker jet making two exceptionally close passes of the uncrewed drone, spraying fuel in front of it, a harassment tactic that US experts say has not been seen before.
On the second pass, the Su-27 moves so close to the MQ-9 Reaper that the image briefly becomes pixelated, indicating a collision had happened.
When the camera recovers, a bent propeller wing can be seen – damage sufficiently serious for the US Air Force to force the drone down. It fell into international waters in the Black Sea, and senior Russian officials have said they hope to salvage it.
The head of US Central Command, General Erik Kurilla, said Russian planes had also become more aggressive towards US bases in Syria over the past two weeks, flying loaded with weapons “in an attempt … to be provocative”.
“What we are seeing is an increase recently in the unprofessional and unsafe behaviour of the Russian air force in the region,” Kurilla told the Senate armed services committee. “We have seen a significant spike since about 1 March,” he added.
US officials briefed that the footage of the downing of the Reaper drone “absolutely confirms” there was a collision and dumping of fuel – but they added it did not confirm the Russian pilot’s intent and whether it was intended to strike the Reaper.
By pausing the imagery it is possible to see that the Su-27 was armed with at least four missiles. The US has said the Reaper was unarmed, most likely undertaking surveillance and reconnaissance related to the conflict in Ukraine.
The Pentagon said the footage, which is about 40 seconds long, had been edited by the US military for length but showed events in a sequential order at the end of a sustained period of harassment by two Russian jets.
The US has previously said the drone was damaged after a pair of Su-27s had spent at least half an hour trying to disrupt it by dumping fuel on it and flying in front of it. US air force officials said earlier this week that the jets flew close to the drone 19 times, spraying jet fuel on the last three or four times.
Russia has denied US accusations that its jets acted recklessly and has that its aircraft came into contact with the drone. It insists the drone fell from the sky after making a “sharp manoeuvre” and that it was flying towards Crimea, which Russia has occupied since 2014.
The video was released with the following caption: “Two Russian Su-27 aircraft conducted an unsafe and unprofessional intercept with a US Air Force intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance unmanned MQ-9 aircraft operating within international airspace over the Black Sea on 14 March 2023. Russian Su-27s dumped fuel upon and struck the propeller of the MQ-9, causing US forces to have to bring the MQ-9 down in international waters.”
Justin Bronk, an aviation analyst with the Rusi thinktank, said: “The footage does show two extremely close and unprofessional passes at significant angles of attack, which is in line with the US claims that the Russian pilot involved in the collision was flying recklessly and accidentally collided with the MQ-9.”
On Wednesday, the Russian ambassador to the US, Anatoly Antonov, called the incident a provocation. “We are concerned about the unacceptable activity of the US military in the immediate vicinity of our borders,” he said, accusing the US of supplying intelligence to Kyiv. The US had summoned the ambassador over the incident.
The MQ-9 Reaper is a large remotely piloted aircraft, 11 metres long with a wingspan of more than 22 metres, and can be armed if necessary. The US Air Force says its primary use is as “an intelligence-collection asset” but it has frequently been used in drone strikes against targets in the ongoing “war on terror”.
The defence secretary, Lloyd Austin, and joint chiefs of staff chair, Gen Mark Milley, have spoken to their Russian counterparts about the destruction of the drone.”-via The Guardian, video is at source link
~
“Poland will become the first country to deliver fighter jets to Ukraine in the next few days, marking a significant upward step in military backing for Kyiv ahead of an expected counter-offensive.
The precedent, involving four Soviet-era MiG-29s as a first instalment, could lead to other Nato members providing warplanes, a longstanding Ukrainian request.
The Polish president, Andrzej Duda, made the announcement in Warsaw. He said the first planes being handed over were inherited from East Germany after the fall of the Berlin Wall.
Duda said the MiGs were coming to the end of their working lives after 30 years, but were “still in working order”. The president said that more Polish MiGs were being serviced and repaired in preparation for being handed to Ukraine. In all, Poland has 28 MiG-29s which are to be replaced over the next few years by South Korean FA-50s and US F-35s.
Until now, Ukraine’s backers in Nato have only provided spare parts for its fleet of Soviet-era warplanes, amid fears that delivering functioning planes to Ukraine would be seen by Moscow as direct participation in the war. A year ago, Poland offered to hand over all its MiGs to the US at its airbase in Ramstein, Germany, so they could be passed on to Ukraine, but Washington rejected the plan.
Slovakia, Finland and the Netherlands have all said they would consider supplying Ukraine with warplanes. The US and UK have so far refused to supply their F-16s and Typhoon combat aircraft respectively, on the grounds that they require too much training, ground support and long, smooth runways to be of any short-term help to Ukraine. However, the UK has offered to provide air cover for any eastern European country willing to supply Kyiv with Soviet-era jets.”-via The Guardian
~
“Negotiations about a possible conversation between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are ongoing, but it is too early to say whether a conversation will actually take place, according to a Ukrainian presidential adviser.
"We can't say for sure, because negotiations are ongoing," Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, said on national television Thursday.
The Ukrainian president is open to conversations with other leaders as well, not just Xi, "in order to explain the nature of the war and to say why, without taking into account Ukraine's position, this war cannot be ended," Podolyak said.
"Why supporting for instance only the Russian side firstly will not lead to the finalization of the war, and secondly, it will not add points to China as a global player that understands the nature of war and understands how to end it," he added. Earlier on Thursday, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said he had a telephone conversation with Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang. The two discussed Ukraine's peace plan and "the significance of the principle of territorial integrity," Kuleba said in a post on his official Twitter account.”-via CNN
~
“Ahead of the Black Sea grain agreement expiring this weekend, the United Nations emphasized that the deal states it would be extended for 120 days — even though Russia said it agreed to a 60-day extension of the deal after negotiations in Geneva on Monday.  
The Black Sea Grain Initiative is an agreement between Ukraine and Russia, brokered by the UN and Turkey, that was established in July 2022 to guarantee safe passage for ships carrying grain and oilseeds — some of Ukraine's most important exports.  
“The agreement is public, it’s an open document. It foresees a rollover of 120 days,” UN spokesperson Stephane Dujarric said.   Russian state-run news agency RIA, citing Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko, reported on Monday that Russia and the UN had agreed to a 60-day extension of the grain deal after the negotiations in Geneva.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday that the addition of 60 days was a “goodwill gesture” on Russia's part when asked by reporters why the deal had not been extended by 120 days.  
When asked Thursday about the difference in the duration of the extension between Russian and the UN versions, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said that it may be a display of “UN’s incompetence.”  
Dujarric responded to Zakharova’s remark, saying, “I was just stating and reading a line from the agreement, which talks about the fact that the agreement foresees a renewal for 120 days.”   The spokesperson stressed that the UN doesn't direct the talks or terms to the deal. The Russian Federation, Ukraine and Turkey are the parties involved in the agreement, with the UN as a witness, Dujarric said.
Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar told reporters on Wednesday that Ankara hopes to resolve the issue in a positive way “as soon as possible,” according to Turkish state media Anadolu.
“We started negotiations with the idea of extending the grain corridor for another 120 days in line with the initial version of the agreement. Our friends with the Russian and Ukrainian sides held talks at the technical level. We also continue our talks at the ministerial level,” he said.”-via CNN
~
“Russian attacks were reported in Donetsk, Kherson, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, and Luhansk oblasts in the east, south, and north of Ukraine over the past 24 hours.
According to local authorities, one person was killed, and 14 were wounded.
Russian attacks killed one civilian in Bakhmut and injured 11 more in Donetsk Oblast, Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko reported in his morning update on March 16. Russia hit ten settlements and three communities in the region, damaging over 25 houses, five high-rises, a school, an educational institution, and cars, said Kyrylenko.
Russian forces struck Kherson Oblast 88 times, firing 413 projectiles on the oblast's settlements, according to Kherson Oblast Military Administration. The attacks reportedly wounded three people in the region as well as damaged houses and apartment buildings in the city of Kherson.
Russian troops launched an S-300 missile at Ukraine's eastern city of Kharkiv on March 15, damaging an educational institution, a high-rise, and cars, said Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleh Syniehubov.
Russia also attacked four regional districts over the past day, damaging houses and infrastructure sites in the villages of Hatyshche and Lemishcheno, Syniehubov added. No casualties were reported.
On the morning of March 16, Russian forces hit the community of Bilopillia with artillery and grenade launchers in Sumy Oblast, bordering Russia, according to the regional administration.
Earlier on March 15, Russia shelled four other communities in the region, destroying a farm building and an office building, the administration wrote. There were no casualties in the attacks.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reported that Russia had struck civilian infrastructure in 17 settlements. Local authorities received ten reports about damage to citizens' households and infrastructure sites due to Russian attacks. The administration didn't provide information on casualties.
In Chernihiv Oblast, Russian troops used mortars to attack the villages of Berylivka and Yeline close to the Russian-Ukrainian border on March 15, according to the Northern Operational Command of Ukraine's Armed Forces.
The next day, the General Staff reported Russian attacks on two other regional settlements. No casualties were reported.
Russia also shelled four settlements in Luhansk Oblast, the regional administration said on Telegram. It didn't provide information on casualties or damage.”-via Kyiv Independent
~
(Content warning: Torture, rape.)
“Russia has committed wide-ranging war crimes in Ukraine such as willful killings and torture, a U.N.-mandated investigative body said on Thursday, in some cases making children watch loved ones being raped and detaining others alongside dead bodies.
The alleged crimes, including the deportation of children, were detailed in a report by the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine, which said some acts may amount to crimes against humanity.
At her weekly press briefing, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told reporters that Moscow regularly heard accusations like these.
She added that if those behind such reports supported objectivity "then we are ready to analyse specific cases, answer questions, provide data, statistics and facts. But if they are biased, if they represent only one point of view ... then there is no use responding to these reports."
Russia denies committing atrocities or attacking civilians in Ukraine.
Based on more than 500 interviews as well as satellite images and visits to detention sites and graves, the report comes as the International Criminal Court in The Hague is expected to seek the arrest of Russian officials for forcibly deporting children from Ukraine and attacking civilian infrastructure.
It said Russian forces carried out "indiscriminate and disproportionate" attacks on Ukraine and called for the perpetrators to be held accountable.
"The ongoing armed conflict in Ukraine has had devastating effects at various levels," Erik Møse, chair of the commission, told a press briefing. "Human losses and the general disregard for the life of civilians...are shocking."
The report said at least 13 waves of Russian attacks since October on Ukraine's energy-related infrastructure as well as its use of torture "may amount to crimes against humanity."
It found that some 16,000 children have been unlawfully transferred and deported from Ukraine, citing a Ukraine government figure. Russia denies the charge, saying it has evacuated people voluntarily from Ukraine.
Other children were forced to watch their loved ones raped or, in one instance, detained in a school basement alongside the bodies of the deceased, the report said.
Victims in Russian detention facilities were subject to electric shocks with a military phone - a treatment known as a "call to (Russian President Vladimir) Putin" - or hung from the ceiling in a "parrot position", the report said.
The commission's 18-page report will be presented to the Geneva Human Rights Council on Monday. Countries at the council, the only body made up of governments to protect human rights worldwide, aims to extend and deepen the commission's mandate.
Sometimes, the council's probes lead to prosecutions in international courts. The commission said it is working on a list of possible perpetrators that would be passed onto U.N. authorities.
Asked whether Russia's acts might amount to genocide, as Ukraine believes, Møse said it had not yet found such evidence but would continue to follow up.
Ukraine, which has called for the creation of a special tribunal to prosecute Russia's political and military leadership with aggression over the invasion, has said the commission was essential to ensure Russia would be held accountable.
The commission found reasonable grounds to conclude that the Ukraine invasion qualifies as an act of aggression.
The report also found that Ukraine forces had committed a "small number of violations" including what appeared to be indiscriminate attacks and torture of prisoners of war. The Ukrainian presidency was not immediately available for comment.”-via Reuters
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rrondo · 11 months
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«Burnt grain»
Mosaic by Ukrainian artist Tetiana Rodkina (inst | twitter)
On 23 July 2022, less than a day after signing a grain export deal with Ukraine, Russia launched "Kalibr" missiles at the Odesa sea trade port. Two of the four missiles were intercepted by Ukrainian forces.
In the night on 19 July 2023, Russia carried out further missile and drone attacks on the Port of Odesa after withdrawing from the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Grain and oil terminals were damaged. The Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture claims 60,000 tonnes of grain were destroyed in the attacks."
Ukraine is an important global wheat supplier and the war has sent food prices soaring. A global food crisis has pushed 47 million people into “acute hunger”, according to the World Food Programme.
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