#Gabriel Weinberg and Lauren McCann

[usunezukoinezu]

''Suppose the police pull someone over at random at a drunk-driving checkpoint and administer a Breathalyzer test that indicates they are drunk. Further, suppose the test is wrong on average 5 percent of the time, saying that a sober person is drunk. What is the probability that this person is wrongly accused of drunk driving?

Your first inclination might be to say 5 percent. However, you have been given the probability that the test says someone is drunk given they are sober, or P(Test=drunk | Person=sober) = 5 percent. But what you have been asked for is the probability that the person is sober given that the test says they are drunk, or P(Person=sober | Test=drunk). These are not the same probabilities!

What you haven’t considered is how the results depend on the base rate of the percentage of drunk drivers. Consider the scenario where everyone makes the right decision, and no one ever drives drunk. In this case the probability that a person is sober is 100 percent, regardless of what the Breathalyzer test results say. When a probability calculation fails to account for the base rate (like the base rate of drunk drivers), the mistake that is made is called the base rate fallacy.''

-Gabriel Weinberg and Lauren McCann, Super Thinking

[smartskill97-sinha]

Super Thinking: The Big Book of Mental Models (Summary)

"Super Thinking: The Big Book of Mental Models" by Gabriel Weinberg and Lauren McCann is a comprehensive guide that explores various mental models and how they can be applied to enhance critical thinking, decision-making, problem-solving, and overall cognitive abilities.

The book introduces a wide range of mental models and provides practical examples to illustrate their applications. Here is a complete summary with examples of some key concepts covered in the book.

Read more

[lazaroschamberger20]

Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder Audiobook Online

[Book] Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder Audiobook Online by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Antifragile is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, and The Bed of Procrustes.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the bestselling author of The Black Swan and one of the foremost thinkers of our time, reveals how to thrive in an uncertain world.   Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, and rumors or riots intensify when someone tries to repress them, many things in life benefit from stress, disorder, volatility, and turmoil. What Taleb has identified and calls “antifragile” is that category of things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish.    In The Black Swan, Taleb showed us that highly improbable and unpredictable events underlie almost everything about our world. In Antifragile, Taleb stands uncertainty on its head, making it desirable, even necessary, and proposes that things be built in an antifragile manner. The antifragile is beyond the resilient or robust. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better.   Furthermore, the antifragile is immune to prediction errors and protected from adverse events. Why is the city-state better than the nation-state, why is debt bad for you, and why is what we call “efficient” not efficient at all? Why do government responses and social policies protect the strong and hurt the weak? Why should you write your resignation letter before even starting on the job? How did the sinking of the Titanic save lives? The book spans innovation by trial and error, life decisions, politics, urban planning, war, personal finance, economic systems, and medicine. And throughout, in addition to the street wisdom of Fat Tony of Brooklyn, the voices and recipes of ancient wisdom, from Roman, Greek, Semitic, and medieval sources, are loud and clear.   Antifragile is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world.   Erudite, witty, and iconoclastic, Taleb’s message is revolutionary: The antifragile, and only the antifragile, will make it.

Includes a bonus PDF of supplemental charts and graphics

Please note that that bleeps in the audio are intentional and are as written by the author. No material is censored, and no audio content is missing.

Praise for Antifragile   “Ambitious and thought-provoking . . . highly entertaining.”—The Economist   “A bold book explaining how and why we should embrace uncertainty, randomness, and error . . . It may just change our lives.”—Newsweek   “Revelatory . . . [Taleb] pulls the reader along with the logic of a Socrates.”—Chicago Tribune   “Startling . . . richly crammed with insights, stories, fine phrases and intriguing asides . . . I will have to read it again. And again.”—Matt Ridley, The Wall Street Journal   “Trenchant and persuasive . . . Taleb’s insatiable polymathic curiosity knows no bounds. . . . You finish the book feeling braver and uplifted.”—New Statesman   “Antifragility isn’t just sound economic and political doctrine. It’s also the key to a good life.”—Fortune   “At once thought-provoking and brilliant.”—Los Angeles Times

Read Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder Audiobook Online by (Nassim Nicholas Taleb)

Duration: 16 hours, 15 minutes

Writer: Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Publisher: Random House (Audio)

Narrators: Joe Ochman

Genres: Joe Ochman

Rating: 4.22

Narrator Rating: 3.67

Publication: Thursday, 01 November 2012

Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder Audiobook Online Reviews

Joe Jennings

Incredible. Nassim is a unique intellect with an inspiring and fresh perspective on economics, philosophy, business, nutrition, exercise... the list continues. Nassim writes the way he speaks, straight to the point, no nonsense, with insightful stories and analogies to enhance his statements. The narrator captures Nassim's inflection and enthusiasm Highly recommended.

Rating: 5

Andres Ulloa

Taleb's book focuses on the core issue of anti-fragility which can be transferred across most subjects. The book is highly "repetitive" which as any great speaker knows is a tool to get people to really grasp the concept. He goes into extensive detail and though many historical examples and philosophers to which he accredits the uncovering of the concept of anti-fragility. Of course he recognizes and expresses that the doer innately understands anti-fragility yet it eludes the spotlight in the academic realm. If you read this book you will learn anti-fragility in depth. Bottom line: If you are really interested or using anti-fragility for a real world application then you should listen/read this book. If you're just trying to grasp the concept quickly and move on I suggest either reading a couple of sections from this book or getting your anti-fragility knowledge from Taleb's other sources, or getting that knowledge through experience.

Rating: 5

John S.

Painful to listen to as he repeats antifragile over and over for different situations. Instead of making up words, call it was it is, adaptability. I couldn't finish the book, would not recommend using your credit on this one.

Rating: 1

Julie Isaacson

Boring and repetitive. If you pick this book to read (or listen), you already know that you learn from failure, and trial and error.

Rating: 1

Similar Audio Books

Super Thinking: The Big Book of Mental Models

Original Author: Lauren Mccann,Gabriel Weinberg

Power of Habit: Why We Do What We Do in Life and Business

Original Author: Charles Duhigg

Intelligent Investor Rev Ed.

Original Author: Benjamin Graham

Principles: Life and Work

Original Author: Ray Dalio

Beastie Boys Book

Original Author: Adam Horovitz,Michael Diamond

Yes!: 50 Scientifically Proven Ways to Be Persuasive

Original Author: Robert Cialdini,Noah J. Goldstein,Steve J. Martin

Thinking, Fast and Slow

Original Author: Daniel Kahneman

Predictably Irrational

Original Author: Dan Ariely

Skin in the Game: Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life

Original Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Getting to Yes: How To Negotiate Agreement Without Giving In

Original Author: William Ury,Roger Fisher

Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crises

Original Author: James Richards

Meditations

Original Author: Marcus Aurelius

Think and Grow Rich 1 of 7

Original Author: Napoleon Hill

Rich Dad Poor Dad: What The Rich Teach Their Kids About Money - That the Poor and Middle Class Do Not!

Original Author: Robert T. Kiyosaki

Warren Buffett Way: 3rd Edition

Original Author: Robert G. Hagstrom

Russell Rules: 11 Lessons on Leadership from the 20th Century's Greatest Champion

Original Author: Bill Russell

Tao of Pooh

Original Author: Benjamin Hoff

Age Cryptocurrency: How Bitcoin and Digital Money Are Challenging the Global Economic Order

Original Author: Paul Vigna,Michael J. Casey

Freakonomics Rev Ed

Original Author: Steven D. Levitt,Stephen J. Dubner

Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future

Original Author: Ashlee Vance

Deep Work: Rules for Focused Success in a Distracted World

Original Author: Cal Newport

Never Split the Difference: Negotiating As If Your Life Depended On It

Original Author: Chris Voss,Tahl Raz

Black Swan

Original Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Meditations

Original Author: Marcus Aurelius

Think and Grow Rich - The Original 1937 Edition

Original Author: Napolean Hill

[sabriputrinada]

Free Read Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder audiobook Book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

[Audio Books] Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder audiobook by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Antifragile is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, and The Bed of Procrustes.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the bestselling author of The Black Swan and one of the foremost thinkers of our time, reveals how to thrive in an uncertain world.   Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, and rumors or riots intensify when someone tries to repress them, many things in life benefit from stress, disorder, volatility, and turmoil. What Taleb has identified and calls “antifragile” is that category of things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish.    In The Black Swan, Taleb showed us that highly improbable and unpredictable events underlie almost everything about our world. In Antifragile, Taleb stands uncertainty on its head, making it desirable, even necessary, and proposes that things be built in an antifragile manner. The antifragile is beyond the resilient or robust. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better.   Furthermore, the antifragile is immune to prediction errors and protected from adverse events. Why is the city-state better than the nation-state, why is debt bad for you, and why is what we call “efficient” not efficient at all? Why do government responses and social policies protect the strong and hurt the weak? Why should you write your resignation letter before even starting on the job? How did the sinking of the Titanic save lives? The book spans innovation by trial and error, life decisions, politics, urban planning, war, personal finance, economic systems, and medicine. And throughout, in addition to the street wisdom of Fat Tony of Brooklyn, the voices and recipes of ancient wisdom, from Roman, Greek, Semitic, and medieval sources, are loud and clear.   Antifragile is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world.   Erudite, witty, and iconoclastic, Taleb’s message is revolutionary: The antifragile, and only the antifragile, will make it.

Includes a bonus PDF of supplemental charts and graphics

Please note that that bleeps in the audio are intentional and are as written by the author. No material is censored, and no audio content is missing.

Praise for Antifragile   “Ambitious and thought-provoking . . . highly entertaining.”—The Economist   “A bold book explaining how and why we should embrace uncertainty, randomness, and error . . . It may just change our lives.”—Newsweek   “Revelatory . . . [Taleb] pulls the reader along with the logic of a Socrates.”—Chicago Tribune   “Startling . . . richly crammed with insights, stories, fine phrases and intriguing asides . . . I will have to read it again. And again.”—Matt Ridley, The Wall Street Journal   “Trenchant and persuasive . . . Taleb’s insatiable polymathic curiosity knows no bounds. . . . You finish the book feeling braver and uplifted.”—New Statesman   “Antifragility isn’t just sound economic and political doctrine. It’s also the key to a good life.”—Fortune   “At once thought-provoking and brilliant.”—Los Angeles Times

Read Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder audiobook by (Nassim Nicholas Taleb)

Duration: 16 hours, 15 minutes

Writer: Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Publisher: Random House (Audio)

Narrators: Joe Ochman

Genres: Joe Ochman

Rating: 4.22

Narrator Rating: 3.67

Publication: Thursday, 01 November 2012

Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder audiobook Reviews

Joe Jennings

Incredible. Nassim is a unique intellect with an inspiring and fresh perspective on economics, philosophy, business, nutrition, exercise... the list continues. Nassim writes the way he speaks, straight to the point, no nonsense, with insightful stories and analogies to enhance his statements. The narrator captures Nassim's inflection and enthusiasm Highly recommended.

Rating: 5

Andres Ulloa

Taleb's book focuses on the core issue of anti-fragility which can be transferred across most subjects. The book is highly "repetitive" which as any great speaker knows is a tool to get people to really grasp the concept. He goes into extensive detail and though many historical examples and philosophers to which he accredits the uncovering of the concept of anti-fragility. Of course he recognizes and expresses that the doer innately understands anti-fragility yet it eludes the spotlight in the academic realm. If you read this book you will learn anti-fragility in depth. Bottom line: If you are really interested or using anti-fragility for a real world application then you should listen/read this book. If you're just trying to grasp the concept quickly and move on I suggest either reading a couple of sections from this book or getting your anti-fragility knowledge from Taleb's other sources, or getting that knowledge through experience.

Rating: 5

John S.

Painful to listen to as he repeats antifragile over and over for different situations. Instead of making up words, call it was it is, adaptability. I couldn't finish the book, would not recommend using your credit on this one.

Rating: 1

Julie Isaacson

Boring and repetitive. If you pick this book to read (or listen), you already know that you learn from failure, and trial and error.

Rating: 1

Related Audio Books

Super Thinking: The Big Book of Mental Models

Original Author: Lauren Mccann,Gabriel Weinberg

Power of Habit: Why We Do What We Do in Life and Business

Original Author: Charles Duhigg

Intelligent Investor Rev Ed.

Original Author: Benjamin Graham

Principles: Life and Work

Original Author: Ray Dalio

Beastie Boys Book

Original Author: Adam Horovitz,Michael Diamond

Yes!: 50 Scientifically Proven Ways to Be Persuasive

Original Author: Robert Cialdini,Noah J. Goldstein,Steve J. Martin

Thinking, Fast and Slow

Original Author: Daniel Kahneman

Predictably Irrational

Original Author: Dan Ariely

Skin in the Game: Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life

Original Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Getting to Yes: How To Negotiate Agreement Without Giving In

Original Author: William Ury,Roger Fisher

Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crises

Original Author: James Richards

Meditations

Original Author: Marcus Aurelius

Think and Grow Rich 1 of 7

Original Author: Napoleon Hill

Rich Dad Poor Dad: What The Rich Teach Their Kids About Money - That the Poor and Middle Class Do Not!

Original Author: Robert T. Kiyosaki

Warren Buffett Way: 3rd Edition

Original Author: Robert G. Hagstrom

Russell Rules: 11 Lessons on Leadership from the 20th Century's Greatest Champion

Original Author: Bill Russell

Tao of Pooh

Original Author: Benjamin Hoff

Age Cryptocurrency: How Bitcoin and Digital Money Are Challenging the Global Economic Order

Original Author: Paul Vigna,Michael J. Casey

Freakonomics Rev Ed

Original Author: Steven D. Levitt,Stephen J. Dubner

Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future

Original Author: Ashlee Vance

Deep Work: Rules for Focused Success in a Distracted World

Original Author: Cal Newport

Never Split the Difference: Negotiating As If Your Life Depended On It

Original Author: Chris Voss,Tahl Raz

Black Swan

Original Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Meditations

Original Author: Marcus Aurelius

Think and Grow Rich - The Original 1937 Edition

Original Author: Napolean Hill

[thesimplyluxuriouslife]

This & That: December 20, 2019

This & That: December 20, 2019

Books

—Super Thinking: The Big Book of Mental Models by Gabriel Weinberg and Lauren McCann

Released this past June, Super Thinking shares “a fun, illustrated guide to every mental model you could possibly need”. From discovering Eisenhower Decision Matrix to help you prioritize when the To-Do list seems far too overwhelming to using the “5 Whys model to better understand people’s…

[farhanbhatti69]

Cool book 📚 Covers behavioral economists, statistics and biases mostly 😊 Super Thinking: The Big Book of Mental Models by Gabriel Weinberg and Lauren McCann 🤓 . . . . . . . #superthinking #thebigbookofmentalmodels #gabrielweinberg #laurenmccann #book #reading #instabook #bookstagram #psychology #behavioraleconomics #biases #thinking #mental #models #mentalmodels #statistics #researchmethods #dubai #dubailife #uae #foreverboundless #farhanbhatti (at Dubai, United Arab Emirates) https://www.instagram.com/p/B0KxV9Epmfj/?igshid=1hvh6xmphxzu5

[freeebooktodwownload-blog]

Super Thinking by Gabriel Weinberg, Lauren McCann

Super Thinking: The Big Book of Mental Models by Gabriel Weinberg, Lauren McCann Requirements: .ePUB reader, 33.1 MB Overview: The world's greatest problem-solvers, forecasters, and decision-makers all rely on a set of frameworks and shortcuts that help them cut through complexity and separate good ideas from bad ones. They're called mental models, and you can find them in dense textbooks on psychology, physics, economics, and more. Or, you can just read Super Thinking, a fun, illustrated guide to every mental model you could possibly need. How can mental models help you? Well, here are just a few examples. • If you've ever been overwhelmed by a to-do list that's grown too long, maybe you need the Eisenhower Decision Matrix to help you prioritize. • Use the 5 Whys model to better understand people's motivations or get to the root cause of a problem. • Before concluding that your colleague who messes up your projects is out to sabotage you, consider Hanlon's Razor for an alternative explanation. Genre: Non-Fiction > General

Download Instructions: https://dropapk.com/b8csq2fv2dfx https://speed4up.net/g5tqruk0z97j.html Read the full article

[curiositydotcom]

Curiosity Daily Podcast: Respecting Others with Hanlon’s Razor, What If the World Went Vegan, and Dancing Cockatoos

Learn about a cockatoo that proves humans aren’t the only animals who can dance; mental models like Hanlon’s razor for reducing anxiety and getting along better with others, with some help from authors Gabriel Weinberg and Lauren McCann; and, what would happen if the world went vegan.

In this podcast, Cody Gough and Ashley Hamer discuss the following story from Curiosity.com about a cockatoo that proves humans aren’t the only animals who can dance: https://curiosity.im/2SD85vB  

Additional resources from Gabriel Weinberg and Lauren McCann:

Pick up “Super Thinking: The Big Book of Mental Models” on Amazon — https://amzn.to/2LFRgi5 

Gabriel Weinberg official website — https://ye.gg/ 

About DuckDuckGo — https://duckduckgo.com/about

Follow Gabriel Weinberg @yegg on Twitter — https://twitter.com/yegg 

Follow Lauren McCann @LilBunnyFuted on Twitter — https://twitter.com/LilBunnyFuted

Other resources discussed:

Veggie-based diets could save 8 million lives by 2050 and cut global warming | University of Oxford — http://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2016-03-22-veggie-based-diets-could-save-8-million-lives-2050-and-cut-global-warming#

What would happen if the world suddenly went vegetarian? | BBC — http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20160926-what-would-happen-if-the-world-suddenly-went-vegetarian

Simulating a meat-free America | Phys.org — https://phys.org/news/2017-11-simulating-meat-free-america.html

Download the FREE 5-star Curiosity app for Android and iOS at https://curiosity.im/podcast-app. And Amazon smart speaker users: you can listen to our podcast as part of your Amazon Alexa Flash Briefing — just click “enable” here: https://curiosity.im/podcast-flash-briefing. 

via https://omny.fm/shows/curiosity-podcast/respecting-others-hanlons-razor-what-if-the-world-went-vegan-dancing-cockatoo-snowball

[uselesstalks-blog]

Mental Schmodels for Better Everything

Damn you, self-help books. Why do I always think the next one will be worth my time?

When I heard Gabriel Weinberg speaking on The Knowledge Project podcast, I was quite excited. The guy was obviously smart and our mindsets seemed to resonate on the same frequency. Apart from the dickish title, Super Thinking promised to be an interesting book. Unfortunately it did not manage to deliver what it promised. Even though it is not a complete failure, it still felt like a complete waste of time.

The central role in the book is occupied by the concept of mental models. As lofty as the term sounds, mental models are partly principles to keep in mind when making judgments, partly methods that simplify complex issues into something people can solve. This sounds good and for somebody who has never read a book in their life, Super Thinking may be full of revelations. For me it offered nearly nothing new.

Weinberg and McCann present their most useful advice when they take ideas from software development and generalize these into an everyday life. Being aware of risks of premature optimization (going into details when the concept is not fixed yet) or usefulness of a minimum viable product (building only what you need to test the core functionality) is certainly a good thing. Some of the models are also useful to gain a better understanding of the world (fundamental attribution error, just world hypothesis, tyranny of small decisions). But in all cases this is hardly new stuff.

Worse is when the authors spend pages and pages on topics like decision trees, cost and benefit analysis or various probability distributions. These are not well connected to the rest of the book, and were also explained much better at other places. Even my university teachers were clearer while talking about these topics, despite their attempts to make everything seem complicated. As a result Super Thinking feels like a wordy copy of an MBA course guide.

Lastly, there is something odd with the pace of the book. At the beginning, the authors run across dozens of mental models in a very high pace, sometimes with one paragraph for each. Later in the book, they delve deep into some of the models. But the models that got more attention are not any more important than those which were only briefly mentioned. There isn't much structure to the book either, so apart from some distinct chapters (aforementioned probability distributions for example), I hardly saw a reason for the book to have any chapters at all.

Despite the above, Super Thinking is not a bad book. It's full of useful advice, but it's only useful if the concepts are new to you. I do not consider myself to be well-read, yet I kept stumbling upon topic after topic which I knew very well already. And so I wonder who is this book for. If you read similar literature regularly, you already know it all. If not, it may give you a good overview, but you may as well use the time to read something deeper instead.

Inspired by: Gabriel Weinberg, Lauren McCann: Super Thinking: The Big Book of Mental Models

[usunezukoinezu]

''More generally, you must continually try to strike the right balance between order and chaos as you interact with your environment. If you let the chaos subsume you, then you will not make progress in any particular direction. But if you are too ordered, then you will not be able to adapt to changing circumstances and will not have enough luck surface area to improve your chances of success. You want to be somewhere in the middle of order and chaos, where you are intentionally raising your personal entropy enough to expose yourself to interesting opportunities and you are flexible and resilient enough to react to new conditions and paradigms that emerge. If you study the biographies of successful people, you will notice a pattern: luck plays a significant role in success. However, if you look deeper, you will notice that most also had a broad luck surface area. Yes, they were in the right place at the right time, but they made the effort to be in a right place. If it wasn’t that particular place and time, there might have been another. Maybe it wouldn’t have resulted in the same degree of success, but they probably would have still been successful.''

-Gabriel Weinberg and Lauren McCann, Super Thinking

[usunezukoinezu]

''People are susceptible to the black-and-white fallacy because of the natural tendency to create us versus them framings, thinking that the only two options are ones that either benefit themselves at the expense of “others,” or vice versa. This tendency arises because you often associate identity and self-esteem with group membership, thereafter creating in-group favoritism and, conversely, outgroup bias. Social psychologists Henri Tajfel and John Turner established research in this area, published as “The Social Identity Theory of Intergroup Behavior” in Political Psychology in 2013, that has since been corroborated many times. It showed that with the tiniest of associations, even completely arbitrary ones (like defining groups based on coin tosses), people will favor their “group.”

Outside the lab, this tendency toward in-group favoritism often fosters false beliefs that transactions are zero-sum, meaning that if your group gains, then the other group must lose, so that the sum of gains and losses is zero. However, most situations, including most negotiations, are not zero-sum. Instead, most have the potential to be win-win situations, where both parties can actually end up better off, or win. How is this possible? It’s because most negotiations don’t include just one term, such as price, but instead involve many terms, such as quality, respect, timing, control, risk, and on and on.''

-Gabriel Weinberg and Lauren McCann, Super Thinking

[usunezukoinezu]

''Seen through the lens of entropy, your time, if left unmanaged, will start to go to random, largely reactionary activities. You will get pulled into the chaotic systems that surround you. Instead, you need to manage your time so that it is in a state of lower entropy. When you are able to make time for important activities, you are more easily able to adapt to your changing environment because you have the ability to allocate time to a particular important activity when needed.''

-Gabriel Weinberg and Lauren McCann, Super Thinking

[usunezukoinezu]

''On a more practical level, the second law (of thermodynamics) serves as a reminder that orderliness needs to be maintained, lest it be slowly chipped away by disorder. This natural progression is based on the reality that most orderliness doesn’t happen naturally. Broken eggs don’t spontaneously mend themselves. In boiling water, an ice cube melts and never re-forms as ice. If you take a puzzle apart and shake up the pieces, it isn’t going to miraculously put itself back together again. You must continually put energy back into systems to maintain their desired orderly states. If you never put energy into straightening up your workspace, it will get ever messier. The same is true for relationships. To keep the same level of trust with people, you need to keep building on it.''

-Gabriel Weinberg and Lauren McCann, Super Thinking

[usunezukoinezu]

''If you want greater luck surface area, you need to relax your rules for how you engage with the world. For example, you might put yourself in more unfamiliar situations: instead of spending the bulk of your time in your house or office, you might socialize more or take a class. As a result, you will make your own luck by meeting more people and finding more opportunities. Thinking of the butterfly effect, you are increasing your chances of influencing a tornado, such as forming a new partnership that ultimately blossoms into a large, positive outcome.

You obviously have to be judicious about which events to attend, or you will constantly be running to different places without getting any focused work done. However, saying no to everything also has a negative consequence—it reduces your luck surface area too much. A happy medium has you attending occasional events that expose you to people who can help you advance your goals. Say no often so you can say yes when you might make some new meaningful connections.

...

...increasing your luck surface area means increasing your personal maximum entropy, by increasing the possible number of situations you put yourself in. Your life will be a bit less orderly, but disorder in moderation can be a good thing. Of course, as we have seen so far, too much of a good thing can also be a bad thing. Too much entropy is just chaos.''

-Gabriel Weinberg and Lauren McCann, Super Thinking

[usunezukoinezu]

''There are likely design patterns applicable to whatever you are doing…For writing books like this, there are many design patterns, from the way the book is laid out and printed to the length and writing style expected. The same is true in our careers: design patterns for startups (how they are commonly financed, managed, etc.), coding (how code is structured, common algorithms, etc.), and biostatistics (common drug trial designs, statistical methods, etc.).

The opposite of the well-tested design pattern is the anti-pattern, a seemingly intuitive but actually ineffective “solution” to a common problem that often already has a known, better solution. … You can avoid anti-patterns by explicitly looking for them and then seeking out established design patterns instead.

While some amount of planning is always useful, sometimes the most efficient way to finish a task is to dive in quickly and start, rather than getting bogged down in analysis paralysis.''

-Gabriel Weinberg and Lauren McCann, Super Thinking

[usunezukoinezu]

''In personal situations, most people discount the future implicitly at relatively high discount rates. And they do so in a manner that is not actually fixed over time, which is called hyperbolic discounting. In other words, people really, really value instant gratification over delayed gratification, and this preference plays a central role in procrastination, along with other areas of life where people struggle with self-control, such as dieting, addiction, etc. When you’re on a diet, it’s hard to avoid the pull of that donut in the office. That’s because you get the short-term donut payoff right now, whereas the long-term dieting payoff, being so far in the future, is discounted in your mind close to zero (like company earnings fifty years in the future).''

-Gabriel Weinberg and Lauren McCann, Super Thinking