#How statistics work

[doyouknowyoudothatoutloud]

I just saw a post about dogwhisteling and a term about noticing patterns being used by nazis. I can sort of see it.

I don't know if it's that big a deal though.

I think policing language is worse than having some people use it harmfully.

I think try to be a good person with the bigger stuff and probably let dogwhistelling go.

I do not mean to say it does not create harm. But rather than policing the use of the words what if we use those words to educate how facts really work. That when looking at statistics there are hardly ever any patterns.

People of different religious groups can, and often do, have more in common in their daily life than people of the same one. If you make about the same amount of money your lives tend to look very similar.

I think it is a more effective use of your time to build up good things in the world than to spend it tearing down the bad ones. Sometimes you have to tear down some bad, but without having built up good to replace it with it is not nearly as effective.

So is it bad that words and phrases are being used as dogwhistelling? Yes.

But is the best way to build a good world to fight them? Probably not.

I think you can ask yourself who you are laughing at when you make a joke. That in itself is a good foundation.

Rarely you might reblog a joke you think is harmless but it is pointed out to you it has been used as a dogwhistelling phrase. Explain what you thought was funny about it and how you saw it differently.

The post was talking about how bad it is to have dogwhistelling be hidden in the middle of a bunch of other phrases and just become ordinary and sometimes that is true. But if people don't stop using the term it can also become meaningless as a dogwhistelling tactic. If the phrase is mostly used for a different purpose it no longer does the thing it was made to do or at least it does it less effectively.

I am not saying this is what you should do. I am however saying that it is not all gloom and doom. I think diversity in how it is used is far from a bad thing. When it comes to dogwhistelling phrases.

Noticing patterns is how our brain works. But the world is far too complex for something as simple as patterns accurately explaining how it works. Our brains think the world works in patterns, but our brains are wrong.

We go in with certain assumptions into topics. How you learn is to try to dissprove the assumptions you go into it with. If you believe the world is just a repeated pattern, you are wrong.

That is how litterature works because it is our imagination put on paper. But reality is made by different people's imagination, by animals, by stuff from the universe etc. Reality is far too complex to be accurately described by one thing being in control of everything or even most things. Actually think of it. What a boring and predictable world that would actually look like. There are so many things around you in your every day life that disproves that.

Take note of them, think what do I belive about them and look into it by trying to dissprove what you belive about them. Use creadible sources. Know who these sources are payed by. What are they likely to promote or avoid talking about because of who they are payed by?

The world is complex and therefor the methods and answers are probably that too. At least more complex than our brains assume they are.

[vaxxman]

What do you think about 5cp TF2 map Gullywash?

Getting autobalanced on Gullywash feels especially tragic.

More sketches and more impressions under the cut.

In order to draw this, I watched some highlander matches on Gullywash, due to finding no matches in competitive, and the aimbots going rampant in casual. I was only able to play 5 proper matches on casual, (2 of which my teams won purely due to team imbalance,) so some of this is based on what I saw other people were doing in competitive match recordings, as well as how it feels to play on community servers with AI train bots. No one was playing whenever I was queueing up :(

I learnt very fast that Gullywash is one of these maps where you will die a lot, or steamroll the capture points, and there is no in-between, because you either position yourself correctly or you don't. While this goes for every map in tf2, I never really felt frustrated when dying here. I could always find a reason for my mistakes and generally it turned out to be a very rewarding learning experience.

I think Gullywash is extremely fun and fast paced. I especially enjoy giving scouts and pyros overheal buffs, because of how much flanking you can do here. The symmetry of the map is immaculate and the amount of objects that just lie around allows demos to place a lot of traps and players to just hide in corners.

(Using Scouts as your Uber Driver here is also especially fun, so many near death situations!)

For some reason, the soldiers and demos who play on this map are really good at protecting medics? That's the impression I got, everyone knew when to retreat and not push, everyone turned around when they saw my health go down, everyone was shooting the spies for me when we were in the open and I was too focused with healing the people fighting death matches at the front so we could capture.

(My personal heroes who just rocket jump over to you just to shoot the spy 2m away from you, and then just rocket jump away again)

Snipers aren't much of a problem, since there are so many options for hiding properly while still being able to reach your team mates. The same sadly doesn't apply to spies and I think I have died more to spies on this maps than to sticky traps.

While I love the vaccinator, I think Stock and Kritz are the better options on this map. Nothing cries geneva convention war crime more than entering the door to the last capture point and ubering a soldier who starts spamming everyone with rockets in this rather crammed up room where everything can give you splash damage.

Shoutout to a pyro called Joey who carried the last game I played, it was a blast ubering you through the last capture point.

[entropyvoid]

Y’know before things went to shit a popular topic amongst jewish users on this site was about cultural Christianity, and a large part of that discussion was pointing out that certain ways of talking/acting/thinking were rooted in Christian culture, and were not culturally neutral, and the expectation of Jews (and people from non-culturally-Christian backgrounds in general) to conform to them was an expectation to assimilate and abandon our own cultural ways of talking/acting/thinking.

And this collective conversation has largely been abandoned as Jews on this platform now have much more loud and blatant forms of antisemitism to worry about

But I can’t really stop thinking about how ostracization, public shaming, guilt, conversational shut-downs, harassment, and throwing ad hominem buzzwords at various people to not have to engage directly with opposing ideas enough to form an actual counterargument have all been a serious issue with how people operate in left-leaning online spaces for a long time now, and how those things are also very common methods of group control in a lot of the more… well, controlling and loudly bigoted sects of American Christianity, with roots in American Puritanism.

And I think a lot of people who want to think of themselves as leftists or even activists should really take a step back and more deeply analyze their methods/praxis of realizing their ideals and how they interact with other people, whether or not they’re actually willing to be constructive about things, etc.

Like is burning bridges, shutting down conversations, refusing to engage intellectually with things you don’t like, callouts, etc… actually helpful and useful? Why is this the method so many default to, and where does it come from?

[poorly-drawn-mdzs]

At the start of this project all I wanted was to 'learn how to draw' using comics as a medium and the MDZS audio drama as inspiration.

I've come *very* far from making simple, 3 panel black and white comics, and I truly do intend to go even further. Thank you to everyone who cheered me on throughout 2023, it has been an incredible year in so many ways I never could have imagined. I look forwards to drawing throughout 2024 B*)

[mikichko]

141 x white reader recs? 👉🏻👈🏻

Hi nonnie 😊

I'm not going to lie, this ask bewildered me a bit! I wasn't sure if you were being serious or not since this fandom is basically 90% white. Going by those numbers I'd assume there's a plethora of white content for you to enjoy, love.

I can't imagine that an ask for recommendations of an demographic that isn't typically featured in reader inserts would stir you up so much. Right?

Regardless, I do truly love to talk about my favorite writers so here is a list of writers (in addition to the previously mentioned) whose work I absolutely adore.

In no particular order:

🍂 Early

Starting off strong with the individual that sucked me into this black hole of a fandom. I absolutely love Early's writing style and their focus on fat readers. I reread a ton of their works constantly! Currently The Space in Between is what I read at the gym when I'm doing my hot girl walk 🥰🥰 Ensnared me with this Current Fave: The Space In Between

🍂 PFHWrites

Following it up with the second cod blog I ever followed, give it up for P! I absolutely adore P's works and the thought that he puts into the creechurs 🐈 (P patented term) in his works. Writes incredible pieces for transmasc!readers that I absolutely adore Ensnared me with: No clue actually! I just think of P as this entity that one day appeared on my tumblr dash and whose work I've been in love with for ages (tbh it was probably porn but...) Current Fave: Binders and Boyfriends

🍂 glossysoap

Glossy, my beloved Soap worshiper in arms 💕 Glossy has an incredible knack for writing that's amplified by her vibrant personality and how much she uplifts other writers in the community. I adore her to death and am so glad we have such a great writer like her in the fandom Ensnared me with: Bloody Shame (kyle fuckers rejoice) Current fave: Pushing Boundaries

🍂 kyletogaz

Our wonderful beautiful Jess 🥰💕 Resident Kyle and F1 enthusiast I have suuuch a fun time reading Jess' works (even when she is emotionally destroying me ;-;) I have her post notifications on so I don't miss a single work :') Ensnared me with: Simon fixing your attitude Current fave: Sharing is Caring

🍂 swordsandholly

Holly's Cherry Bomb 🍒 series has me by the goddamn neck right now! I am actively choking as I type this out because of how fucking good it is. Her depictions of Simon in 'Double Date - Double Down' solidified me as a fan from the beginning Ensnared me with: Double Date - Double Down Current fave: Cherry Bomb

🍂 stellewriites

Stelle's wonderful personality shines through so brightly that when I followed her I didn't even realize she wrote. When the cognizant part of my brain finally kicked in and I finally realized she was a writer I berated myself for not reading her work earlier. So happy that I stumbled upon her and her work 💞💖 Ensnared me with: Amazing personality <3 Current fave: Choices Made in Anger

🍂 syoddeye

Sy is another writer who I just cannot remember how I came across them! Honestly, someone else probably reblogged one of their works and I fell in love with their writing style. Whoever it was I am immensely thankful. Sy makes works that are so marvelous my brain gets more wrinkly every time I read something of theirs ❣ Ensnared me with: It's a black box I'm so sorry Current fave: The Lift (this is lowkey my motivator before the gym)

🍂 dragonnarrative-writes

Dragon's works have got me foaming at the mouth. Another creator who I have no clue how their works came onto my timeline but all I know is that I am so thankful. Every one of their works is a treat akin to indulging in something ridiculously delicious. 💘 Ensnared me with: Autumn Embers Current fave: Autumn Embers (particularly Part 3A ;))

🍂 indigosunsetao3

Indigo was actually recommended to me under a post lamenting the lack of Alex Keller works! And boy am I glad she was because the way she writes about Alex Keller makes me rattle at the bars of my enclosure for this white man. Absolutely amazing content that I am so happy to have been told about her! 💓 Ensnared me with: Older CIA Alex Keller Current fave: Move In Day (Alex Keller fuckers rejoice)

I am missing so so so many incredibly writers who I adore as well but because of time constraints I didn't have time to include them. Honestly, I'll probably just keep adding this list and using it as a rec list!

This fandom has been blessed with so many folks who create marvelous pieces for readers across the spectrum. We're fortunate that writers have cultivated such an accepting space 💕

[sea-buns]

Despite all of his failed insight checks across every season, Gorgug is forever the insight guy to me. Which is even more insane considering his wis is 12. But it just suits him so perfectly. Stats be damned, you ask me who my go-to for insight is in that group, I'm gonna say Gorgug almost immediately. And I don't even think that's because he does insight so often—in my head he's just genuinely good at it. In specific circumstances, yes other bad kids are much better suited for it than he is. But Gorgug carries this aura of emotional intelligence and awareness that trounces any other statistical or contextual factor.

Even in the way he prompts things. Like with the connection to Lydia and the red crystals, for example. Any time he poses a question that knocks us all on our asses, it's always in the form of an insight check. It's always insight, even when it's this crazy revelation about some insane magical bullshit that you'd prolly attribute more towards int or arcana. But IN THAT CONTEXT, for HIM, insight makes the MOST sense. It's his thing.

Can barbarians have proficiency in insight? Can artificers? Can barbarian-artificers? Maybe it's odd in a dnd party for the rage-guy to come off as the most emotionally intuitive. But if any one of the bad kids were to have it, I'd assume Gorgug, without question.

[rickybaby]

Today I feel Spanish 🇪🇸

[pepperedshenanigans]

Happy anniversary 9th Undertale! Genuinely so awesome to see how the game created such a wonderful community over the past few years 😭

Remember, despite everything, it's still you 💛

feel free to use this wallpaper :D

[dailyastarionpics]

[saym0-0]

au where imp&skizz are literally just two guys that get isakai'd into the minecraft/hermitcraft world and r just like 'aight guess this is happening now' and just,, continue on. like its just these two entirely regular dudes acting completely casual as if they aren't dealing with magic and nonhuman people on the daily. the result, of course, is two fellas that are just completely chill about absolutely everything because they have no idea what the norm is. hilarity ensues

[arsenicflame]

(in general, removed from any specific au's where he needs to swim/not swim for Plot)

(personally, i think my stance is that he has some ability to keep himself afloat in calmer waters- on the shore or in a pool- but not in the way where its a particular skill. hes spend enough time dicking around in the shallows with Jack & Sam & Ed to know how to handle himself in water where he cant consistently reach the bottom, to feel comfortable cooling off by a waterfall, but is also keenly aware that if he goes overboard, even in relatively calm waters, being able to swim isnt going to do anything to save his life if a dinghy isnt sent. hes not gonna drown the second he's in the ocean or anything, but hes screwed if the waters a little too rough or its late or a raid and it isnt noticed before the ships a way away.)

[adastra121]

Alchemist!MC: On a scale of 1 to 10, how much hair product do you use in the morning? Ais: Hm, I’d say a solid 12. Leander: I raise you with 14! Vere: Please make way for the king with 40! Mhin: Negative 50. Alchemist!MC: Okay, none of you answered within the range I gave y— Kuras: 5. Alchemist!MC: ...Thank you, Kuras.

[xitty]

Ensemble Stars 2023 Statistics

ES Countdown 2023 -> 2024 stream provided fun stats again! I have a post of 2022 here. Following are of content added in 2023 (MVs, office furniture...) and JP version.

Most Read Event Stories (Music + Basic) 1. Altered (fine-O and Altered tour) 2. New Start GO! (Hajime center) 3. Machina (Mika center)

Most Viewed MVs In-game 1. One With One (1 014 549 views) 2. Ruby Love (313 560 views) 3. Eccentric Party Night!! (297 990 views)

Most Used Stamps 1. Kanata FS2 ("arigatou gozaimasu") 2. Bkub HiMERU ("kimi no heart ni HiMERU secret") 3. Bkub Ra*bits ("yatta! pyon pyon")

The Biggest Stage (width) 1. Resurrection of Soul (60 m) 2. Romantic Xday! (58 m) 3. Les temps des fleurs (50 m)

The Biggest Stage (height) 1. Dawning Angels (39 m) 2. Romantic Xday! (28 m) 3. Twilight Pentagram (23 m)

The Biggest Elevation Change in MV 1. Dawning Angels (23 m descent to stage) 2. Meikyuu denshi kairou (pillar ascent 6.5 m) 3. tie between Melting Rouge Soul (3 m descent to stage) and Undying Holy Love (3 m ascent from underground) (btw, Dreaming Ocean doesn't count?)

Most Lights Used in MV 1. tie between Dawning Angels and Twilight Pentagram (approx. 430 lights used) 3. Starlight Parade (approx. 240 lights used) How expensive Dawning Angels (in game's world) was??

The Highest Note Sung 1. Melting Rouge Soul 2. Black Out See Saw 3. tie between Romantic Xday! and Boku Sketch (Hajime solo) Congrats Ryota Osaka (Ibara) on your pipes.

The Lowest Note Sung 1. Twilight Pentagram 2. tie between Melting Rouge Soul and Konjiki senya yumebutai This win goes to Toshiki Masuda (Rei).

The Longest Note Sung 1. Boku Sketch (Hajime solo) (approx. 4 sec) 2. tie between Shukufuku no Library and Amor Vincit Omnia (Shu solo) (approx. 3.5 sec)

The Most Difficult Song Added in 2023 (least Expert clears) 1. Resurrection of Soul 2. Love×me⇄monsteR 3. Eccentric Party Night!! (Reminiscence Mix)

Most "guests" (other people, animals) in MV 1. Dreaming Ocean (579 animals: 578 fish and 1 jellyfish) 2. Resurrection of Soul (20 bats) 3. tie between Parallel Maze (8 Ra*bits from parallel worlds) and Relax Paradise (8 animals: 2 sloths, 1 kiwi, 1 platypus, 2 elephants, 1 armadillo and 1 bear) Cheers for the animators who kept count on the fish.

Best-Selling Office Items 1. Acoustic guitar 2. Shoebill plushie 3. Collaboration drinks table Post here about which idols can play the guitar!

Total times of animals fed in Animal Plaza 39 825 059 times

Total number of fans acquired for idols 8 241 865 400 fans

[presdestigatto]

last angry post before i sleep but the narrative with casual fans now that carlos has been mistreated by ferrari in any shape or form is completely ridiculous. nearly all his achievements have been with ferrari. they developed a car for him, ignoring charles’ input, despite charles supposedly being their future world champion. he goes around with with a rich and well-connected father and support from spain vs monaco (tiny), ferrari have literally never treated him as a second driver (if they have i’d love to know when) but somehow he’s an underdog now because he,,, can’t beat charles on merit? didn’t get a contract extension with ferrari? how does he compare in any way to the other drivers ferrari have dropped, who are all world champions

this is also entirely the fault of pundits and commentators who go on air and claim that two drivers can be equal if their qualifying h2h record is 37-18 and their average race pace difference is two tenths of a second. there is zero objectivity and charles’ name gets dragged through the mud despite him consistently excelling.

lastly i want to know how people can call seb washed for having a 12-17 race h2h against charles in 2 years as teammates but carlos sainz is the greatest driver ever with a 18-30 h2h record over 3 years (used this so the metric is equal)

[cannibal-nightmares]

Something happened yesterday evening that had me conclude something within myself: I figured out just how and why I hold my label as "schizophrenic" with such honor and without hesitation. I'm pretty open about it to people, and only seldomly is it actually directly relevant to wanting someone to understand me. No, I am upfront about it because I learned, "the first thing people look for in someone are their vulnerabilities, and it's the last thing we want people to find."

At work last night, I ran into a patron who was my mirror reflection. She was terrified of me. I did all that I could do to try and make her feel reassured, I even offered to not finish my task, but, in the end, she was brave for me. I'm glad it was me who was there for her in that moment, and I hope she is okay. This is the short of the story.

I hold my label with pride because I want people to know I have nothing to hide. I want people to understand not what I go through, but that I will never judge them, especially if/when they're struggling with anything. It took a long time for me to get to this point, it is terrifying jumping off the platform, but it does get easier; I would never expect people to do the same, especially when it has it's push and pulls of pros and cons, but I'm glad I *can* do it for others. I've been tired of hiding, and last night made me realize why. Seeing others be open about their experiences is what guided me to find help and better understand myself in the first place, and I'm not about to stop now.

Some may find it backwards, but I am outspoken because I want people to feel safe with me, even when I, from first-hand experience, know it's absolutely impossible. I won't ever judge someone's fear of me or of the absurd, especially when I am scared of everyone, too. I had to take time to grieve yesterday in the understanding that I know that lady does not and will not always receive mercy from the world. I had to grieve knowing I cannot wipe away ignorant cruelty and impatience, but I can just keep trying to do my part in rectifying it and setting examples. All we are are our gestures. So, as I said this past June, I am proud to be your friendly neighborhood schizo. I am not looking for praise, I don't care about that, I am looking for others to find patience in their fellow man, it's all we can try to do. Sometimes all you can understand is that you don't understand, and that's okay.

(And I'll be completely transparent here: Paranoia does *not* want me posting this, and I'll probably face the repercussions, but that doesn't make what I've said or how I feel untrue or not real. So, eat it, paranoia, you're exactly what I'm up against.)

[frogs-in3-hills]

i’m pretty sure the website one of my profs is using as our “textbook” was written by ai. like. god. what am i even fucking paying for at this point