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#I cannot think of any other explanation for. this.
spiritstein · 2 days
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spirit albarn has histrionic personality disorder, change my mind
i often see people ask what the hell is wrong with spirit, which is a great question. that guy's got issues. here's my take on explaining some of them!
notes: i have HPD myself so some of the evidence/examples i'll give will have personal anecdotes (although i've avoided projecting to the best of my ability for this post.) this is based mostly off the anime, as i have not finished the manga.
full post under the cut as it's ended up both very long and image heavy
one of the major traits of HPD is dramatic and exaggerated behavior/expression of emotion, which spirit displays nearly every time he's on screen. (typically in regards to either maka or his past and potential future romantic pursuits, we'll get to that later.)
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this is typically played for comedy, but i don't think that discounts it as evidence at all-- kid's OCD is often used for jokes but that doesn't mean he doesn't have it.
these outbursts often involve very sudden shifts in his demeanor, and almost feel like an internal switch is being flipped on or off. this can make how he acts seem shallow at times, which is also characteristic of HPD. (emphasis on seem-- i do believe he's expressing his true emotions to the extent he feels them. the exaggerated self-expression of individuals with HPD is often tied to feeling those emotions far more intensely than the average person, at least for me.)
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note how quickly he returns to a "resting" or "default" expression in the second gif here. he's kind of got a resting bitch face, honestly.
another defining trait of HPD is excessive flirtatious and sexual behavior, regardless of the person's attraction to whoever they're making advances on. i'll be using manga screenshots here since dialogue is important, but this is the symptom spirit shows most obviously by a long shot.
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(not pictured: many, many more examples of this...)
he tends to flirt or otherwise get involved with women regardless of if the situation calls for it, and often to the detriment of his relationship with others.
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the most blatant example of this detriment is his divorce with maka's mother and maka's subsequent dislike of him. no images provided since i presume you're familiar with that if you've gotten this far.
notably, he appears to feel guilty about this trait, yet does not or cannot curb it. one could easily read this as spirit needing the attention and approval from these women. excessive desire for these things (along with a more general need to feel liked or loved) is a major driving force behind other HPD-influenced behaviors and is a symptom in and of itself. while there is no concrete evidence behind this explanation for his provocative behavior, there is one person we know he desperately seeks approval from-- maka.
while nearly any parent would want for their child to love them, spirit wants for maka to merely pay any attention to him to a degree far beyond average.
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in all of these examples, he's upset by her not even acknowledging him (or the thought of it) as opposed to hating him. the thought of her loving or admiring him appears to be a far-off fantasy to spirit, to the point of barely being able to handle it when she interacts with him positively:
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...to the point of vomiting after this, which i won't show because that's gross.
maka is by far the person spirit's most shown to value the attention and approval of, but he still likely seeks it from others in more subtle ways. inversely, he reacts very strongly to both perceived and actual rejection, which is another HPD symptom. he assumes the worst when lord death calls for a meeting of all the death scythes, and is shocked when he finds out he assumed wrong.
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people with HPD also tend to be gullible and easily influenced, which is most obvious in spirit's interactions with stein. he allegedly didn't catch on to the fact that stein was experimenting on him until his ex-wife pointed it out, as well many examples of stein just sort of fucking with him over the course of the series.
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this could also just be that spirit's a dumbass, so take this part with a grain of salt.
that's everything that i can directly tie to HPD symptoms, but i'd also like to note that alcoholism is common in histrionics and they're at higher risk of divorce. as well as these manga screenshots of spirit being Just Like Me Fr as someone with HPD that i couldn't find anywhere else to put.
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i hope this wasn't too clunky of a read and possibly gave the 5 spirit fans something to consider in their characterization of him! thank you for your time ^_^
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kitty-king-artwork · 3 days
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Hello! To whoever is reading this entry, I have very recently discovered a very interesting entity in my travels! An elevator with no visible working mechanisms that can drop you off just about anywhere, including many different planets and universes! (Unfortunately only at random, I have not been able to work the control panel yet)
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(apologies, this was the best photo I could get of the elevator itself)
On my journeys through this elevator, I have also come across many interesting passengers, of people you, reader, may not be used to! with permission from parties involved, i have decided to document some of the other passengers I have met. This entry will contain subjects 1-4
(ooc: Hii regretevator fandom! As someone whos a huge fan of this game, and who loves speculative biology, I've decided to start making cool little sheets for what the cast could look like on the inside! This is pretty much mostly made up of my headcannons and speculation, but ur absolutly allowed to use any of this yourself if you want! Enjoy these little entries from the pov of one of my regretevator ocs!!)
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Firstly, I must start out with a disclaimer for the subjects I will be cutting out. The first two, who go by "Infected" and ...."Poob", are normal Homo Sapiens. If you are reading this entry above a first grade level of schooling, you know what a Homo Sapien, or by their common name, Humans. Read any book on extinct species. The only differance i can gather from either of them is that both of them partake in the practice of damaging their head fur to change its color, and that "Infected"s bones have strange pink and black patterns. Besides that, both are your average humans.
For the other three "Wallter", "Mark" and "Lampert", I simply cannot give you the anatomy of beings who barely have any. All three of them are very interesting in that they are made out of inorganic materials (Stone, wood/metal, and hollow metal respectively) but none of them have any internal structures and I cannot find a way the three are living besides the simple explanation: they're just strange beings from one of the many other universes. If i can bring up anything substantial on them, I will add on in another entry.
With that out of the way, onto the subjects
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Our first subject, who goes by the name "Pest". Interestingly, he and another subject seem to be "Bug people" such as myself, but with much more similar qualitiies to that of a human. I supose that shows even when we think we are unique, we can still find species accross the multiverse similar to our own! Pest seems to be a mix of the Beetles Lucandiae and Cyphochilus.
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Our next subject, Pilbert, or Pilby for short, is a very interesting case. If you are not familiar with Larval-Stasis sydrome, it is a disorder that can affect others with complete metamorphasis cycles, causing them to not "grow out" of their larval stage. It seems the world Pilbert inhabits also contains that disorder, and it is of course what they have. They also informed me it was called "Metastasis Sydrome" where they were from! Besisdes that, Pilbert is also equipped with "fuzz" that is still incredibly dangerous to touch. A few other passengers on the elevator did.... not seem to understand that.
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Our third Subject decided to stay anonymous, but still agreed to let me share their.... Very interesting biology. The only way I can describe this subject is, they are like.... A Scyphozoa, or a Jellyfish, covered in hair. This subject's body mainly consists of different textures and densities of mammalian hair. Their only parts of them that aren't made of hair are the subjects teeth, made of keratin, and their nervous system. Another subject informed me this subject was, possibly, made in a lab. I don't know how true that is, but I'd believe it.
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And our final subject for this entry is another interesting one, this one being a juvenile Gnarpian. If you are not aware, some believe that Humans may have been wiped out by these same aliens. Although this is purely a theory, it is interesting to finally meet one of these aliens myself, as we do not have much information on this species. I also decided to point out the number of scars this subject has, as I thought of it as a shocking amount of injuries xe has survived, since xe doesn't show signs of excessive tissue damage or any trouble moving.
And with that, is the end of the anatomy lesson for these subjects. I will be updating once I get more information on others, and I'll be happy to obtain feedback!
- Bug
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tmae3114 · 7 months
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so I've been looking up advice about hand embroidering on velvet for a project idea I had and I just found an article that was ABSOLUTELY written via AI because, well
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sirenspells · 9 months
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Tumblr's been a little quirky with my account for a while now with seemingly no explanation (the number above the notification tab being nonexistent, just not receiving emails at all) but now it's gone to the point of just completely hiding a specific mutual's posts from my dash for no apparent reason
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(re: language, & i have thought about this some and i think that is important to include people who aren't women who are directly impacted by restrictions on abortion access, but i also think that anti-choice rhetoric & activism is driven by misogyny, so it is also important to me to consistently name women as a group when abortion specifically is being discussed. and i think obviously you can't separate misogyny from a lot of other things, but i also think something is lost when you lose the ability to name misogyny in contexts where it's central or relevant, which i feel like i have seen happen not infrequently. i have thought about specifying "cis women" but if the issue is that not all women can get pregnant and therefore not all women have the potential to require access to abortion, that's true even if you are talking specifically about cis women, and it would feel strange to be like, "cis women without infertility issues who are between menarche and menopause." in mulling that over i landed on something like: i think that ultimately any manifestation of misogyny is relevant to all women, even if for whatever particular circumstances of their lives specific individual women may not ever have to deal with that. i don't have to deal with tabloids dissecting my perceived physical flaws because i am not a celebrity, but i do have to deal with being a woman in a culture where women's bodies are considered acceptable sites of public commentary and beauty is considered an obligation women owe the public. similarly, a woman who can't get pregnant, whether it's because she's trans or because she had uterine cancer, technically doesn't have her life impacted by a lack of access to abortion, but she is still impacted by the underlying ideology of restrictions on abortion access, which is that women's lives are not inherently valuable and women cannot be trusted to make decisions about their own bodies or reproductive futures. hence, "women & others who can get pregnant" is where i have landed for my own use in this and similar contexts, for now at least.)
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mincedpeaches · 1 year
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Girl in another organization at the office basically needs to make two simple powerpoint pitches and send two separate emails with the powerpoints asking for approval from a quorum before I can do my shit. It been well over TWO MONTHS and there is NO REASON why this couldn't be banged out in less than a day. She came across as a preppy went-to-catholic-school girl with her shit together (mostly by virtue of being blonde in her zoom pic) and I have been FALLING ALL OVER MYSELF to offer my help to her for AGES. At this point I'm a hair's width away from either putting her on blast in a professional manner or dropping all professional pretense and being like "girl. are you neurodivergent or what."
I can see exactly how difficult this task could be from an executive dysfunction standpoint because the process is not clear, the standard work is either intentionally vague, out of date, and/or doesn't really define exactly what to do step by step. Which is why I have, and I cannot overstate this, been falling all over myself to help. I was fed up waiting and so right before break I scheduled a meeting for today to go over it step by step, like make her do IN FRONT OF ME OVER CALL, but then she messages me like "oh I have [company software] issues today I'm working them out with IT on the phone right now" (likely story) and I was like okay I can reschedule for tomorrow, but you know you don't need [company software] to send emails right? Except I was SO nice about it. I am being SO nice about. And I'm about to lose it.
Girl does this task haunt your inbox? Does it haunt you in that ADHD way where you if you spent even a fraction of the time you've spent stressing about how you need to do it just actually doing it, then it would be done ten times over? Do the number of small steps to understand what to do seem insurmountable? I've been there. Please. I'm falling all over myself!! I can help!!! I want this done so bad!!!!
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maeamian · 1 year
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Saw a post claiming that the Biden memes on here are why Joe Biden is generally not getting as much criticism as he probably should for the bad parts of his agenda, and some offense, but it really seems to me like that doesn't pass the sniff test at all and maybe if you believe this you need to go log off and get some outside air.
#Are we sure it's the memes#Not the same large scale consent manufacturing machine that's been doing that job our entire lives#Well okay my entire life the fall of the Fairness doctrine is where a lot of this stuff gets worse in particular#As well as the post Watergate belief of conservatives that this CANNOT happen to them again#But not the post-watergate belief that they needed to let it not happen by not doing bad shit#At any rate if I were a gambling man I'd put my single crisp US dollar bill down on 'the media' before 'the memes'#For starters 'websites the Biden VP memes circulated on' and 'websites with the best overall impression of him' don't correlate at all#I don't think I can remember any pro-Joe posts in the primaries on this website#But this website is also where I saw the vast majority of my Biden memes#Even still the most love I see for him on here right now is like 'You're gonna have to vote for him again because he'll be the nominee'#I just would like to see a lot more evidence for the memes theory before I believe a much mroe straightforward theory#That the institution of the presidency holds an undue reverence especially in the national press#and as such regularly goes under-questioned and under-critiqued during pretty much every administration of my lifetime#The meme just doesn't seem even remotely powerful enough to move the same amount of belief comparatively#If nothing else it's an absurdly online model of US politics that fails to account for a bunch of other factors#For God's sake they're fawning over GW Bush and his artisitic endeavors and that dude needs to be in the Hague#And I don't remember any pro GWB memes on here to justify that#So something else beyond the memes may be at play here#I really just don't see that the model has any upside whatsoever as an explanation of things#It doesn't explain anything better than more coherent and fleshed out theories of politics#But also does explain several things worse or not at all#Full disclosure there are Biden memes in this blog's history#But the way I feel about him currently is literally entirely unrelated to that#If you wanna look at them and go 'we probably could've and should've known better' I'll give you that#But not 'because of the long term impact it has had'
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new-ronantics · 2 years
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everyone saying they can’t imagine mike liking will back is driving me insane. every other season aside, what reason could mike possibly have for acting so weird around will in s4?
seriously, from a completely objective narrative standpoint, why would he be acting like this? if he really doesn’t have any feelings for will (whether he’s aware of it or not), then i genuinely do not understand what they’re doing with his character.
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mosspapi · 8 months
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I have an appointment with my psychiatrist on the 14th. I just have to make it to the 14th. I can do that. It's only 7 days. I can do that
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It's me. I'm the cis, heterosexual, aromantic man. I will never marry, I will never be married, I will grow into middle age and elder age and I will die unmarried. I will be forced to support a household of myself on only my wages alone for the rest of my life. I will be asked about women and marriage and children by my family for the rest of my life (or men, the progressive ones might say). I may not ever come out to them. I feel like I burned my coming out on something stupid. I don't want to explain it. I don't want to run them through the definitions and intricacies. I don't want the acceptance without understanding, placating me with ceased questions and poor explanations to other, drunk adults.
I like my hair to be long, I spent a year with it dyed a golden blonde with dark roots because I like the trashy party girl aesthetic. I want to dye it again with pink tips. I like painting my nails, black and blue are my favorite colors. I like wearing chokers. I also like wearing baggy jeans and ratty hoodies. I like having stubble. I like having chest hair. I like having a square jaw and broad shoulders. I wish I had a flatter stomach and a thinner profile frame. I don't know what this makes me, perhaps this is something no more GNC than Machine Gun Kelly. I think about this a lot, how queer my appearance truly is. I should think about it less. I have thought long and hard about if I could be trans or if I could be non-binary or if I could be genderqueer and the conclusion I ultimately came to is that I most enjoy being a man open to whatever self-expression I want.
I don't date, but I've thought about it. I would like to meet people, and I would like to have sex with them. But I don't want to hurt them. I fear if I explain what I am beforehand it'll scare them away. I fear if I explain after they'll feel manipulated or abused. I don't know how many people in the dating scene want what I want. I fear my own lack of experience will make me a bad lay, an embarrassing story to tell to confidants in hindsight. I fear my own virginity, a boundary to those I wish to be like. All of these fears are baseless, as I've not been able to even begin a single relationship in my life. Despite this I still heavily identify with terms like "slut" and "manwhore" and "thot" because my interests lay so deeply within casual sex, sex without great intimacy or emotion. This may be some form of stolen valor. I hope the true sluts are not too mad at me.
I made this blog several years ago because a mutual of mine reblogged memes making fun of aro and ace people, making fun of the concept of aphobia, and in addition well known aphobes. I didn't feel comfortable talking about aro stuff on my main blog, for as little as I talk about it. Living through the ace discourse of the 2016 era has largely caused me to cringe in embarrassment any time I am forced to discuss my orientation with people who aren't aro or ace themselves. I no longer follow this person. I unfollowed many people I was mutuals with from that time, most of them because they posted too often about how much they hated men and I didn't want to see that, some because our interests simply drifted too far apart, only one for explicit aphobia reasons. (Also one because they became a "both sides are bad, any vote is wasted" libertarian, but that's unrelated.)
I guess at this point I don't care deeply about what strangers on the internet think of me. If a trusted friend told me that they don't think I'm truly queer that may hurt. But I am going to continue to use the word for myself. I take up no resources. I go to events that are open to me. If an event was not open to me, I think I'd not want to go anyways. I am not a hypothetical, I am not a strawman, I am a person with lived experiences both within and exterior to the queer community. If you hate me, I will permit you to continue to do so. But ultimately, I am who I am, I cannot change these facts, and I would not choose to do so even if I could.
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actual-changeling · 8 months
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welcome back to alex's unhinged meta corner, today's topic: the chest touch at the pub. that scene has me in a chokehold for some reason and i still cannot stop thinking about it.
the first thing i wanna talk about is crowley's reaction, since this is the shorter part. he did not expect aziraphale to reach out to him like this and freezes for a second while aziraphale happily chatters away.
they were both walking and the hand on his chest stops him, so he comes to a stop right next to him while he was slightly behind him before that. his gaze also snaps to aziraphale's face, who is very much not looking at him.
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they were having a conversation, but the touch essentially shuts crowley up and zira leaves him to get their drinks.
now, my question is why aziraphale does it. sure, it could just be an absent gesture since they're in a crowded place, just that he has never really done so before. i think it was very much planned, like asking crowley to dance and grabbing his hand later on.
a second before he actually reaches out, he also looks back to check whether crowley is where he thinks he is. that is the only time he does that, he was busy looking for a free table and miracles them one when he cannot find one - the look back is deliberate. especially since crowley is practically glued to his side, he has no need for confirmation, he can feel him brushing against him while walking.
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the hand motion he does gets me, too. he is busy fidgeting with his hands like normal and has them clasped in front of him. aziraphale lifts them once he gets to "that is precisely the point", yet also already moves it slightly towards crowley, realizes he miscalculated where exactly he/his chest is, looks to check, then looks away again before actually touching him. am i reading too much into it? maybe.
i think it is his version of a little temptation. not only does it make crowley's brain short-circuit for a second, he also gets them their drinks and is now (or so aziraphale hopes) a bit calmer and will take the news aziraphale is about to give him better. the conversation at the cafe did not go entirely as planned, after all.
additionally, something i am not sure if other people have noticed or not is that aziraphale does not just touch crowley, it is a caress. he moves his hand down his chest.
the movement in order:
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bar girl unfortunately moves in front of them, but you can clearly see the way his hand takes. to give you a direct comparison of the starting and end point:
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a good point of reference is crowley's bolo tie but also the angle of aziraphale's arm while it is still visible.
the best part, in my opinion, is that aziraphale puts his hand right on top of crowley's heart. i think the symbolic importance of that is pretty clear and does not require any more explanation, although it makes me want to throw myself into a river. but that's by the by.
to summarize, aziraphale caresses crowley's heart chest to get him to calm down and not go insane over the news he is about to give him. he is also simply a bastard and knows exactly what he is doing to crowley.
as always, this is me going nuts with analysis, but i'm also curious to hear other people's thoughts on this.
don't tell my therapist about my unhinged meta posts or she will probably be very concerned for my mental wellbeing
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homunculus-argument · 10 months
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This is one of those ideas that someone's probably already done, but I came up with another concept for a game:
A game where most of the cutscenes are flashbacks of memories the protagonist has, and the "skip cutscene" button says "repress this memory". You can play through the whole game while skipping all of the cutscenes, you don't need to watch any of them to complete the main storyline and get the main intended ending.
But watching through them doesn't just give you a more thorough - and occasionally, even completely different - understanding of the whole game, and information that makes you see certain characters in a different light, but it unocks new options in the game. You watch through the cutscene flashback of the protagonist's mother doing something fucked up, and suddenly all your conversations with her now have the dialogue option to go "hey mom remember when [the fucked up thing] happened?"
This particular conversation branch doesn't seem to lead anywhere, she'll flat-out deny that the thing ever happened, and she calls you crazy for having ever imagined that, but later on you can stumble upon something else that you clearly saw in the flashback, that you couldn't have found out any other way. It's one thing to wonder why you would remember something that never happened, but how would you have known that this passageway was here, and opens exactly the same way you remembered it?
There are passages in the game that aren't required for the completion of the main storyline, that aren't blocked off by anything visible and obvious, but have text like "you cannot go through this way, this hallway is too noisy", and it takes a completely unrelated flashback for you to recognise what that specific sound reminds you of, which opens up a whole sidequest of you figuring out why you can't stand hearing that noise. Once you've made the connections and finally remember, you can go through the hallway. There's nothing on the other side that you need for the main quest, but things that may help unlock some other mysteries.
The main game is simple and straightforward, you can just play through that one and be done with it. But that's not the whole picture, the full story. There are answers peppered thorough the whole game, answers to questions you might not even think of to ask. Explanations of why the protagonist is the way they are, and things that make you see characters you interact with - and your interactions with them - in a completely different light. Most of the relevations are grim. The only question to ask yourself is
Do you want to remember?
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marsstarsnstuff · 17 days
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/gen
Do people understand the reason Q cannot apologize about the situation right now? Or are people a bit confused?
It's basically something in the US court system, that when someone is involved in a case and apologizes for the issues and takes the blame (rightful or not) the others in the same case can use it to put all the blame on one person and the others would get off scott free.
That is something that does actually happen, and I have had experience with. I can explain a little if people want but the circumstances are different as mine is around family and inheritance mostly.
So, yes, while the admins, 100% deserve explanations and apologies, due to leaks of private messages (that they are in their own right to show) I personally do not think an apology will be given until any of the higher up issues have been resolved.
*Edit*
Thanks @qsmpbutwithsignlanguage :
"An apology is considered a complete admission of guilt in the court of law in the United States of America, for more specific terminology. "
I forgot the specifics when writing this
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ew-selfish-art · 10 months
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DpxDc AU: Soulmates only meet in the afterlife...And Danny is dead half of the time. 
It was the general consensus that Soulmates did indeed exist, and that there were a couple of hints to know if your soulmate was, but you wouldn’t know for certain until you died. This was often devastating for widows of non-soulmates but... Widows could hear the voices of and feel the phantom touches of their Soulmates. That after their loved one passed away, they didn’t truly leave them. 
Soulmates always traveled to the infinite realms together in a pair, unwilling to pass on without the other. This leads to the ghosts that seemingly never moved on and gave Danny so much grief, they needed to pass the time until their loved one died some how. 
Danny dies and feels himself talking to himself more often while transformed into Phantom, kicking butt and taking names aside. Just small things to reassure himself, nothing more than an instinct to process the situation he was in with this insane life he was living. 
I’m going to be okay, I’m going to get out of this.
I swear to all the ancients that Casper High better make a statue in my honor. 
Mom and Dad don’t mean it. 
The fundraiser to rebuild Poltergeist Avenue is going to be ridiculous.
Mom and Dad wouldn’t mean it if they really knew. 
Nasty burger really should rebrand but my goodness is this the best shit ever. 
It takes a few years to think about the fact that he might have a soulmate who could hear him- how unlikely would that be though? It’s not like he was haunting the person, so it probably wasn’t any big issue. Was there a proximity thing involved? Clockwork sighs and gives him no true answers. 
...
Tim has been hearing the voice of his Soulmate for years. Not...All the time though. He’d mapped out the time frame by which he did hear the additional male voice, accumulated enough data to determine a general profile and geotagged a few of the landmarks mentioned to find the most likely town. Restaurants, street names, highschools, and notable names all help Tim to find what he’s looking for. The concerning amount of comments on his soulmates parents make Tim’s blood boil and motivate him all the more. 
Thing is...Amity Park is under a complete media blackout. The challenge nearly makes him swoon, as if his dead soulmate were leading him towards his favorite hobby (taking down corrupt groups of assholes with too much power, cult or government, was his ideal pass time). He just wants to know who his soulmate was. He wants to know who is waiting for him. 
Arriving undercover and unannounced as a random tourist, Tim cannot find his soulmates grave. Can’t find anything about the person who died all those years ago and had spoken in his ear ever since. He’s about to storm the Mayor’s office, his plans for the GIW already in motion, when a ghost attack begins. 
Phantom arrives and suddenly Tim understands who exactly he’s been looking for. Getting into the crosshairs of the fight, Tim pulls a few RR moves and Phantom cautiously approaches him after capturing the assailant ghost. 
“I’m here because you’re my soulmate, and it’s very interesting that you only talk to me during non-business hours. Care to explain what you’re doing between 9 am and 3 pm, Monday through Friday?” 
“Uh... High school mostly. Wait you can hear me? You’re my soulmate?” 
Cue Danny de-transformation, explanation of his death and ability to die on command, and Tim’s very softball interrogation with his presentation on how he found Danny through the small conversational phrases.
They kiss as the GIW headquarters explode in the background.
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locusfandomtime · 2 months
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Doing the maths: Grian's failure at getting a mending book
lots of talk about maths and probabilities below the cut! but there's a graph and simple explanation at the end if you want to get the gist of it and are bad at maths.
(I am still young and learning maths, critique/advice always welcomed)
What are the odds of getting a mending book in Minecraft?
(I am assuming Grian has been doing all his fishing with Luck of the Sea 3)
The probability of a mending book is actually a bit annoying to estimate. The Minecraft Wiki lists fishing up an enchanted book as 1.9% chance. This is for ANY enchanted book. The Minecraft wiki talks about how the chance of an enchantment being selected is calculated. Mending has a weight of 2. Using the table, mending has a probability of 2/135.
However, Grian is looking for any book with mending, not just a pure mending book. Additional enchantments are calculated in a different way, involving RNG, which means it won't be as easy to model. Due to this reason, I'll just be using the odds for a pure mending book throughout.
TLDR: a mending book has a 0.028..% chance (2/135*0.019*100)
Grian's Data
According to this screenshot, Grian has used a fishing rod 5679 times. This number may not be fully accurate, as it includes the times he's fished other players, rather than just fished for items, but it is a good estimate.
To help visualise this data, with a median waiting time between catches of 17.5 seconds, Grian has spent over 20 hours fishing so far! He may have a problem.
Is this statistically significant?
Hypothesis testing (p-value approach):
H0: p = 19/67500 (the null hypothesis - he has no mending books because of chance)
H1: p < 19/67500 (the alternate hypothesis - he has no mending books due to different odds)
5679 trials, 0 mending books
X ~ B(5679, 19/67500) (binomial distribution, 5679 tries with a probability of a mending book being 19/67500, where X is the number of mending books)
p(X=0) (what is the probability the number of mending books being 0)
p = 0.2021473392
Now, the point at which data becomes significant is subjective. For instance, you *could* get a million heads in a row flipping a coin, it's not impossible, but at a certain point, you can begin to say "okay there's something not normal about this". For this approach, the closer the p-value is to 0, the more evidence there is against the null hypothesis . The p-value here is far above a significance level of 0.01, or 0.05, or 0.1. There isn't a clear line between significant/non-significant, but this is answer is quite a bit far from 0
With this, I cannot reject the null hypothesis.
Personal conclusion: this is not statistically significant, Grian is just unlucky.
Are other values statistically significant?
Gem's proposed 9000: results in a p-value of 0.079... more significant than Grian's number but I don't imagine Mojang would be too concerned. As said though, it's all subjective.
I am bad at maths, what does all this mean?
Here is a graph, showing what number of mending books you might have after 5679 tries. The height of the bar represents the probability of getting that amount. The numbers at the top are the (rounded) numbers I used in my calculation
Tumblr media
The pink column is 0 mending books - like what Grian has! As you can see, it is less likely than getting 1 or 2 books, but not too uncommon to happen.
End conclusion: Grian has bad luck. Like, not as hilariously bad as he thinks, but still bad. If he keeps going, chances are he will get a mending book, but I think he should probably stop fishing because at this point he has a problem.
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rowan-post · 6 months
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RPC self-care
We all get worn down by life and often we turn to RP for rejuvenation. But more than once I've seen people on here that find themselves burnt out on the RP community itself. With nearly 20 years of role playing under my belt, I thought I'd share some of my favourite self-care tricks.
Block people. You don't have to explain yourself and 'weird vibes' is a legitimate reason. You deserve to feel safe and unbothered in your hobby space, and RP is based on consent. Just like with any recreational activity, you can withdraw your consent at any time and no is a complete sentence.
Turn off anon. This prevents anonymous harassment and gives you great insight into who to block or report if you get non-anonymous harassment.
Drop threads. I know RP etiquette suggests you need to tell your RP partner when and why, and sure, if they ask politely you can give it a go - just know that a pre-written variant of 'not feeling it' is good enough. In my humble opinion, I think dropping boring or vexing threads is everyone's prerogative and doesn't require explanation. Again, no is a complete sentence.
Talk it out. If you like the thread but things took a turn you didn't like, it's time to bring the RP into the workshop. Something like 'Hey I really like our RP so far but I'm losing my spark, can we talk about course correcting where the plot is going?'
Make clear rules and revise them frequently. I'd also advise against spending said rules excusing or explaining why you don't like or want a certain thing - I cannot stress enough how your preferences are not up for debate.
Get comfy chasing. A lot of RP is about inviting others to play over and over and over. Rejection is a part of it. See if you can't find some element of self-care in it - taking rejection well is a great skill to practice in such a low stake environment.
Notice and celebrate the good stuff, instead of digging holes about the bad. Tell your co-players how great they are. Marvel at all the hard work you put into your muses and graphics. Admire your own blog.
Stop. Take a break. Check in with yourself. Do you actually need to face something in IRL? Do you need to rest? A snickers? A walk? Don't bother with posts á la 'offline for the day' - leave your options open to reduce guilt or shame if you want to poke your head back in.
Happy writing. 🌿
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