#Tuesday is such a weird day to do that imo lol | Explore Tumblr Posts and Blogs

farlynthordens · 3 years

Text

Is Gen gay-coded or just an entertainer? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ random thoughts/observations about his speech in Japanese

Warnings: LONG. mentions of gendered language and homophobic characterizations

The concept of “role language” is super important in Japanese fiction, because how a character talks can tell you a lot about their personality. Unfortunately, it’s often lost in translation because languages like English don’t have the ability to play around with formality levels, pronouns, etc as much.

Ever since I first watched the dcst anime like a year and a half ago, I’ve had no idea if Gen is intended to be the “gay friend” character or just the “quirky famous guy,” or maybe both? I figured that writing out my thoughts might be interesting for some people! Take everything with a grain of salt tho since I’m not a native speaker

1. Backwards speech

I want to first cover backwards speech (localized as pig latin in the English manga) because this used to confuse the fuck out of me. It felt like a quirky teen thing or internet slang, but it’s actually [zuuja-go] (“jazz” written backwards + “language”) which originated in the 40s-50s.

It was revived primarily by male TV stars and comedians in the 80s-90s, and to this day zuuja-go is regarded as a type of [entertainment industry-specific language]. However, it’s hardly used anymore. It’s kinda weird then that Gen, who’s too young to have lived in the revival period, would use zuuja-go, but my guess is that it’s a funny and somewhat original way to show his “popular entertainer” background. I personally don’t know any other characters who use it as regularly.

2. Choice of pronoun + speech patterns

Gen ends nearly every sentence with ~ne, ~yo ne, ~yo, or ~sa, or otherwise no particle at all. Questions almost never have an ending emphasis particle, putting the rise in intonation on the final word (the standard is to end with ~ka, ~no ka, etc). He also always contracts the verb ending ~te shimau into ~chau/jau (Senku always uses the contracted form too, but a more boyish derivative (chimau). It probably sounds crazy but trust me). There’s more I could list, but these are the most notable points lol

This kind of speech pattern is associated with teen girls/young women, so when it’s applied to a perceived male character, it’s used to indicate that they’re an “effeminate man”. In most cases, “effeminate” = gay/trans (yeah it’s shitty and outdated thinking). It’s also been applied to male characters who are idols or internet stars, possibly as a dig at their masculinity or making fun of their attempt to appeal to female audiences.

One example of the latter is Pyotr from Carole & Tuesday, who’s their universe’s equivalent of an Instagram celebrity. His sentence structure is almost identical to Gen’s, with the girlishness turned up to 11 because of the very high pitched, nasal-y voice given to him in the show. More on this later.

We also can’t forget how he calls everyone -chan. It’s diminutive and cute, but literally no one uses -chan that much. Even in fiction, female characters normally use it for female friends or children, and guys almost never use it except for children and maybe certain girls they’re close with. It’s definitely the most exaggerated cutesy trait he has. “Effeminate male” characters often address others - regardless of gender - with diminutive honorifics or cute nicknames even when not necessarily appropriate, so this is just gay-coded behavior from what I can tell lmao

One thing that’s different about Gen compared to other characters with the same "effeminate male” speech pattern (that I can recall, at least) is his pronoun. He uses the masculine “ore”, like Senku, Chrome, and most of the other young male characters. In text, his “ore” is even in kanji (俺) like theirs. Had it been written in hiragana or katakana, it would have given more of a casual or stylish vibe. Just as a sidenote, this is also why his name itself is written in mixed hiragana/katakana instead of kanji! It’s a typical thing for Japanese celebrities to do with their names to seem cool.

Anyway, characters who are meant to be portrayed as “effeminate men” will almost always use watashi or atashi, the standard “female” pronouns, or at least “boku” which is generally male-aligned but softer than “ore” (Pyotr uses boku, as an example).

Pronoun usage is way more nuanced in real life, but for fictional characters, it tends to be broken down into these kinds of stereotypes based on Tokyo-dialect Japanese.

He also is missing some other key points in his speech pattern that would more clearly identify him as gay/trans-coded, like using the feminine ~kashira (”I wonder...”) instead of ~kana.

3. Voice acting in the show

I love Gen’s Jpn voice honestly, but it does play into the “effeminate man” stereotype a little. His voice is a bit higher pitched than the other guys and somewhat nasal-y, which are both common traits of this stereotype when used with the speech patterns I talked about above. The way certain syllables are stressed also highlights his feminine speech pattern. However, he’s comparably tame to “effeminate” characters in other series. For example, his Jpn voice actor does raise the pitch of his natural voice for Gen, but it’s not a falsetto imo. It’s pretty common for male voice actors to do falsettos for “effeminate” characters.

Gen also doesn’t fall under a lot of the tropes that plague many gay/trans-coded characters and quirky celebrity types - such as being a “diva” or uncomfortably flirtatious - which tend to get amplified in voice acting.

---

This stuff combined with my previous post about his clothes makes me wonder even more about what was intended for his character. There’s a lot about him that is notably “feminine” without him leaning too hard into gay stereotype territory. And it’s just like, why did you do that.

If you survived reading this far, I’d love to hear your thoughts<3

84 notes · View notes

danielletinybruiser · 3 years

Text

The Good Fight New York/New Jersey Open 7/31/21

I competed yesterday! And I actually feel really good about it! I'm a writer, so, writing about my experiences helps me really grasp them and process them and such, so, here goes!

And also: as always, when I compete, it's in basically no-stakes tournaments for anybody. I'm not going to big competitions, I'm just doing this as a hobby and going to light fires under my butt and test my skills as they are in the moment. So, I take it seriously, but I don't go into this with delusions of grandeur! I do not think I am the next Danielle Kelly.

(Content warning for weight here, I talk about it a fair bit!)

I think I prepared pretty well this time around! I trained *a lot* and took conditioning very seriously. I also had a funny thing with weight: since getting my (cough, cough, under my breath) Peleton - I've been riding a lot and running a ton using the app. I sure thought I was being a genius doing frequent two-a-day cardio workouts, thinking "oh yeah, I'll be 125 no problem." Instead, obviously, I gained some muscle weight from doing tons of high intensity interval workouts. It's a good thing! I'm so much stronger than I was, walking now at 134-137, and my cardio is very solid. But it did mean having to be very conscious of weight to ensure I came in at 135 on Saturday.

Again, this should actually be ideal for this level of competition (read: LOW), because it means my walking weight and competition weight are super nice and close (I used to be around 126-129 and still competed at 135, thanks to the other major tournament I do having nothing between 120 and 135), and I feel so much more durable.

An action shot! Thanks for reading so far! Lol

So, I was strict with my diet for the last month (I usually am, this just meant no cheat days for a couple of weeks, really), and did weigh-ins periodically, then every day in the last week. It also meant doing a little bit of math and knowing exactly what kind of food I could have in the morning, and what was safe to do in terms of sweating just in case. It was good to know, because that came in handy!

Yesterday morning, I woke up at 136.2 (you get a 1lb allowance, so I was only .2 over). I did a shorty 15 minute HIIT workout so I could have a tiny bit of food and fluid, being very careful to not dehydrate or do anything stupid. I'm not going to cut weight for this, lol, but it would be truly ridiculous for me, at my height (5'5") and body composition (muscular, but not JACKED), to have to go in at 145 for being, you know, .2 over.

The nice side effect of a short workout in the morning was helping my nerves a little bit (they were BAD), so at least that helped me breathe. I don't know if I've ever been this anxious before competing before, and I'm not sure exactly why — I know there are no stakes besides my pride, there's no money on the line, this isn't my career! This is my hobby, for fuck's sake, so I don't know why my body interpreted "lets compete" as "we are going to WAR and we might DIE," but there it was! I was scared! Brains are stupid!

We got a tiny bit lost on the way, but it was ok because things were running behind at the tournament. No problem at all. I made weight (135.6) and started to warm up. The venue had plenty of extra space on a turf field to warm up, and Viki was a SAINT, not only to drive my nervous ass over, but to help me warm up about six times. I felt better after just drilling and flow rolling a tiny bit.

It was a long wait, but my gi division was up first. I had one opponent at bantamweight, so, a small bracket in gi.

Here's how it goes in a submission-only tournament: you have your brackets, for a full division it's basically semi-finals and finals, with a bronze medal match and the two winners do a gold/silver match. With two, it's best two out of three wins gold, the other person gets silver.

For blue belts, we have eight minute regulation matches. No points, no advantages, no stupid bullshit (sorry, I hate points tournaments). If you both survive eight minutes with no submissions, you go into overtime rounds: a back take, a spiderweb/armbar, and a classic head and arm triangle. For each, the defender needs to escape, and the attacker needs to submit. If you successfully escape, and you successfully submit, you win! If both people escape, or both people submit, you go to the next round, and it repeats as needed (back, armbar, triangle).

It's a great format, imo, and really suits my style: I play defense, I like to wear people down, and then go for it when I see an opportunity. I will play all kinds of wild positions and try to get creative and weird with it, and frankly have fun, and I think submission-only facilitates that!

Still, I was so goddamned nervous.

We started the match and it was ON. My opponent and I were really, really well matched. Size and skill wise, we gave each other a lot of hell. It was rough, too, and I have all the bruises on my face to prove it! But I was having fun. A lot of fun.

Overtime action shot!

Our match went through regulation, to overtime. I escaped her back take, but her coaches fought with the ref a little. I offered to do it again, because, hey, I want to do it better. This may have been stupid of me, but I also, like... the reason I like sub-only so much is that I hate stupid technicalities and bullshit. So I offered to go again and did! And I escaped pretty well. On my turn to attack, I submitted her.

I honestly couldn't believe I won a match in gi. The last time I got a gold medal in gi, it was because I went to the 30+ division, and my opponent was 53. I was happy to win that day, but like... c'mon. I was 35 at the time. In sub-only, women don't have age categories, and I believe my opponent was maybe a bit younger than me, but probably not far from my age, and tough as hell. She was my size, we were well-matched in strength. And she BROUGHT IT.

I remember that going through my head, like "you can win in gi???" I could hardly believe it. I got my hand raised IN GI.

This felt great, and I was basically in shock.

(I won't belabor this, but I hate the gi. I think I'm terrible in it. Tuesday night - my last hard training day before competition, I did ok, but felt demoralized. I almost cried after training and told Viki that night "I don't think I'm going to compete in gi" and thought about pulling my registration. This is why I couldn't believe it, lol).

We had a short break and went again. Again, we did the full regulation match - she had an armbar at one point that I escaped, and I did have a last second back take and choke attempt, but I ran out of time. We went to overtime, I escaped her back take... and I remember, in the moment, getting ready for my turn to attack: "this is probably for a medal. IN GI. You are this close!" and I cinched it with a submission. I got my hand raised again. I thanked her and her coaches, and even chatted with them a little.

We went to the podium - another woman congratulated me on the match, saying she watched it and love dit. The podium worker said the same, and I was flattered. Kirsten (my opponent, who again, was fucking AWESOME and tough) and I did the podium thing, getting our medals and taking pictures.

Podium action shot!

Then, it was off to watch my teammate Ollie compete and kick ass, and then get changed for no-gi, where I absolutely knew Kirsten was going to come for blood, lol.

It still didn't feel real: a gold medal? Me? Danielle? Gi-hating Danielle who almost cried after just training in a gi on Tuesday night (again, nothing went wrong, lol, my training partners are incredibly conscientious and were preparing me!) - I let myself wear the medal for a couple of minutes before putting it in the backpack.

Even now, just about 24 hours later, it doesn't feel completely real. I swear, I only even compete in the gi because it's just five bucks more to do both divisions, and you may as well get all the rolls you can on a day you are showing up.

There was a pretty big time gap between gi and no gi, but I was honestly a little nervous again. They put a (fantastic) purple belt (that's the next skill level up if you aren't familiar with jiu jitsu, and a pretty huge gap for me, being honest) in our division, and I faced her first. There was really no pressure at all here, I do not expect to win against a purple belt. I feel — very honestly — that I have a very, very long way to go in blue. Based on how the day went, I do feel like I'm on my way, and making real improvements — But I'm no where near purple.

I survived about five minutes of an eight minute regulation period, and did survive a pretty intense back take at first, but she got me with a second back take and rear naked choke/crank. All the power to her!

Then, the bronze medal match was between me and Kirsten again (who I faced in gi). Holy shit, this was a doozy. We fought really, really hard in regulation. I know she wanted it BADLY after gi, and I could tell she had serious wrestling and probably Judo as well in her background. She tossed my ass around! It was rough and it was tough, and my face is a little fucked up today, not going to lie. But I loved it, and loved rolling with her — she had such good pressure, and beautiful knee cuts, and she was strong and fast and athletic.

We went through regulation, to the first overtime. I won the "rock paper scissors" to determine who went first and I took her back... and she escaped. She did her back attack, and I escaped.

At this point, I was TIRED. Not no much cardio-tired (I have myself conditioned pretty well), but... "I want to lie down and sleep" tired. But I got her in the armbar position for the second round, squeezed... and got the tap! Again, I thought "you are this close to a medal!" and defended the second round armbar well.. I really, really thought I was out, but in the last possible instant she just NAILED IT and got my arm back and I had to tap. It was fantastic, she did well to grab it back.

So, we went to a third round of overtime. Triangle. I had her in, squeezed, cut the angle... and got the tap! Yes! Now, I really knew I was close. I tapped her, all I needed to do was escape her triangle and I'd have a bronze in no-gi. I wanted it. I really wanted it!

I got into her triangle. It was tight right away (which it should be!), I *thought* I had stacked her in the correct position to escape, I thought I could do it...

And then... I remember dreaming. I started coming to, thinking I was asleep in my bed, and that i was dreaming about competition. I started to become conscious, and I heard her say "I think she's out!" and saw her face and the ref's face. It took me a few moments, but I realized where I was, and that I had passed out completely. She sank a PERFECT blood choke on me. Absolutely picture perfect.

I sort of kept saying, in my confusion "I'm ok! I'm ok!" and shook her hand and kind of stumbled off the mat.

Me, laughing in utter confusion after taking a nice nap on the mat (my opponent was really nice about it!)

Later on, I realized: we were actually supposed to go to a fourth overtime round! We both submitted to a triangle (if you lose consciousness, that counts as a tap!), and I believe the ref was actually asking me if I wanted to continue. Hand to heart, I'm not trying to save face, I just didn't realize it at all, in my complete confusion. I accidentally forfeited by walking off, lol. I seriously had no idea, and honestly, it was probably better that I didn't try to do another round THAT confused.

But still, that is absolutely going to be something I kick myself about, for forever. Just being THAT CLOSE.

By the way, I will say: it was the second time losing consciousness in jiu jitsu (and the first time... I'm not sure I was all the way out, this time I absolutely was) — it doesn't hurt. I'm not saying it's pleasant or great, exactly, it's very, very disorienting, because you actually start to dream a bit and have NO IDEA where you are for a few. But I would rather that than a broken arm or a torn ACL, so, as things happen on the mat, really not a terrible experience.

Kirsten deserves all the respect in the world — she put me out, and FAST (I had no idea how fast until Viki told me, lol. I sure thought I was fighting it for much longer!). She was wonderful to compete with, and I felt we were very evenly matched and got the best out of one another. I chatted with her afterward and we both complimented one another.

Overall, I'm proud of how hard I fought. I know that, in competition, I have absolutely defeated my self before, and gotten so discouraged. It's never conscious, I will always push, I will always mechanically force myself to get back up and get back out. Always. But mentally, in the past, I've really fucked myself.

Yesterday, I vowed to stay patient, and I actually did. I stuck to a gameplan fully: patience, defense, attacking whenever I saw or felt an opportunity. I actually feel, for the first time, that I did my best out there, the best I can do with my jiu jitsu right now, at 4.5 years of training, as a blue belt with one stripe.

That is a wildly unfamiliar feeling. Every other time I've competed, I've come out with at least a few things that were "holy christ, I am terrible at X and need to work on Y." The only other slight exception was the sub only tournament I got my first-ever medals at (silver in both) where I legitimately shocked myself. Even then, I had a couple of specific things I needed to work on (ankle lock defense! I still think about it!)

I'm a little bit beat up today (that armbar I thought I was out of, then got caught right at the last second? I tapped on time, but "on time" with adrenaline is "a tiny bit late" so it hurts like hell today), and will probably just do cardio for a few days to take time to heal up before going back to grappling. But I feel really proud. I feel good about it. I feel stupid as hell for accidentally forfeiting, but overall very pleased with the day.

Where do I go from here? Rubber guard, baby! I want to get *great* at rubber guard. And this has given me a huge boost to keep chipping away at gi, no matter how much I may hate it in the moment. Because I won yesterday, I do get a free invitation to the submission only worlds for this tournament, so, that's something I can think about...

But for now... I'm going to try and let the good parts sink in. Viki got me victory pizza last night, and holy shit, I don't know if anything has ever tasted so good :D

#bjjwomen #bjj #jiujitsu #competition

2 notes · View notes

dreamy-heichou · 4 years

Text

Anime Tag Game

I was tagged by @roxi4, thank you so much!! :D This was a lot of fun though some questions got me thinking really hard lol

1. Last anime you watched?

It’s a new anime movie on Netflix called A Whisker Away (or Nakitai Watashi wa Neko wo Kaburu), it was really cute, funny and touching!

2. Last anime you binged watched?

Beastars. I was a little reluctant to start watching it but once I started I couldn’t stop lol

3. Recommend an anime and state your reason?

CAROLE & TUESDAY

This anime has everything: cute moments, funny moments, serious topics and a bit of angst. It’s about two girls trying to find their place in the new world they live in, Mars, which is where some part of humanity went because of the decaying state of Earth. They both have their struggles, their stories, but what unite them is music. The show is centered on them trying to make their debut in the music industry on Mars, and wow is the music amazing in this anime! All the songs are in English (except one in French) which was a real surprise for a Japanese anime, but it suits the characters perfectly! Totally recommend giving it a try!

4. Anime you have not finished watching yet?

I have a few lol, though right now I can’t remember which one and MAL decided to not work right when I’m doing this akjld

5. An anime you do NOT recommend and state your reason?

Okay, so before I go into this, just know one thing: I love Tokyo Ghoul. I really do, but I love the original story, the manga.

Concerning the anime: the first season was okay, they deleted a few things which I found was a shame, but it wasn’t bad. But Tokyo Ghoul √A... It was a complete disaster and ruined the story and the characters (especially Kaneki ugh) imo. It makes things so confusing if you want to watch Tokyo Ghoul:re afterwards too!

So yeah, if you want to give Tokyo Ghoul a try, honestly I wouldn’t recommend Tokyo Ghoul √A at all. Read the manga, read a synopsis of this part of the story online if you want to watch the rest of the anime, but not this season.

6. List your top 5 favourite anime?

Oh boi I never know... I haven’t watched that much anime tbh (I prefer reading manga) and not as many caught my attention to the point that I can call them ‘favourite’, but I’ll try...

Shingeki no Kyojin

Sword Art Online (I know what most people think of this anime but I don’t care. It’s a flawed show but I love it nonetheless. I’m a simple person)

Fate/Stay Night: Unlimited Blade Works

Higurashi no Naku Koro Ni (they’re going to make a new adaptation soon I can’t wait!!!)

Fruits Basket 2019 (the anime hasn’t finished airing yet but it’s one of my favorite manga and the new adaptation is amazing!)

7. Of your top 5 anime, list 2 of your favourite ships from each show?

Snk: Ereri (duh!) and um... I have several other ships I enjoy but none stand out more than another honestly :/

SAO: Kirito x Eugeo (my second OTP, love them!!) and that’s it lol

Fate: Shiro x Rin

Higurashi: Keiichi x Rena

Furuba: Kyo x Tohru and Kureno x Arisa

8. Of your top 5 anime, list 1 ship that you do not like?

I haven’t said that one a lot because I’m not about spreading hate, and unless someone asks me I see no point in talking about it. Only my friends knew to this point... Eru**ri. Like just... No.

9. Of your top 5 anime, list 1 crack ship?

Ajdkdj I don’t know?? I’m not a big shipper usually, SnK is an exception, and I don’t think any can be called a crack ship lol

10. Of your top 5 anime, list your favourite character from each show?

Levi Ackerman (SnK)

Kirito (SAO)

Oh damn... Rin or Archer I guess lol (Fate)

Rena <3 (Higurashi)

Kyo Soma (Furuba)

11. List 3 of your husbando/waifu and what anime they are from?

Levi (SnK) - my #1 and the man who owns my heart

Kirito (SAO)

Gavin/Haku (Koi to Producer : Evol x Love) - I’m totally cheating with that one because the anime hasn’t aired yet lol but it’s from a game that I’ve been playing every day for almost a year now and this man is definitely 100% my husbando, can’t wait to see him animated!! (Haku is his Japanese name apparently but in the English version of the game he’s called Gavin)

12. Favourite anime genre?

Damn, again, I have no idea lol. I guess I like it when there’s not too much drama and not too much humor, like just the right amount of both? Then I like when there’s a touch of fantasy, or if it’s an Isekai. It’s easier for me to say which genre I don’t like tbh lol

13. Weirdest anime you have seen?

Weirdest? Hmm... Let’s go with Shinsekai Yori (From the New World) Honestly I liked that anime, some parts were total genius like holy damn! But when I started watching it I was so confused and kept asking myself “what am I watching? What’s going on?” but I kept watching it nonetheless because I was so curious :’) It isn’t a bad kind of weird, but some parts really grossed me out, like.. The rats... *shivers*

14. Subbed or dubbed?

Subbed, always!!

15. Fanart or Fanfic?

I only read fanfics for Snk tbh (once upon a time I was reading Naruto fics lol), so let’s say Fanart (tho I like both)

16. Protagonist or antagonist?

Depends on the character and the story, but mostly protagonist

17. Funniest anime you have seen?

I haven’t watched a lot of comedy anime, so I’ll go with Great Teacher Onizuka (GTO)

18. Saddest anime you have seen?

Oh boi... I have a few for which I cried my eyes out honestly...

First: Uta Kata. I’ll never forget how fucking depressed I felt at the end of this anime. I watched it in middle school and the ending got to me so hard, I still remember how I felt even after all this time (I wonder how I’ll feel if I rewatched it now?)

Then there’s also Clannad, I was crying my eyes out for several episodes in the After Story, and since Roxi mentioned it, AnoHana.

19. Anime character you dislike the most?

Okay, easy one. No matter how many times I see him, no matter in which version because somehow he’s like a cockroach and can’t stay in one fucking anime, I always feel like putting my hands inside my computer and strangle him: Mato Shinji.

It’s insane how he was voiced by the same seiyuu who gave his voice to my favorite character of all times! It blew my mind when I realized that; Kamiya Hiroshi sure is an amazing voice actor!

20. Recommend an anime movie?

I highly recommend the first movie I talked about, A Whisker Away, but that’s not the one I want to recommend now though.

Maquia: When the Promised Flower Blooms (or Sayonara no Asa ni Yakusoku no Hana wo Kazarou)

This movie is just simply amazing and beautiful, though I must warn you that the plot is quite angsty. Like I definitely cried at the end of that movie too. It’s set in a fantasy world, and... okay I suck at summary so let me just copy/paste one:

“Though only 15, Maquia knows she will live for centuries without aging past adolescence. She belongs to the Iorph, a clan of ageless beings just like her. Maquia's elders warn her not to fall in love with anyone outside their realm, lest she wish to encounter true loneliness in the end. But fate pushes Maquia out into the mortal world one night, when an invading territory separates her from the clan. There she discovers an orphaned baby, Ariel, and takes him in as her own child. From this point, Maquia will suffer extreme heartbreak in the name of motherhood, as she watches Ariel grow and seeks to reconnect with her lost Iorph friends, all torn apart by the cruel world of Mesate.”

100% recommend it if you’re not afraid of drama and like fantasy!!

------

Damn that was a long tag game!! Sorry, I ramble a lot :’)

I tag: @talkereritome, @dearlevily, @soapy0-0, @jaegerists, @flamoria, and anybody else who wants to do this! It’s a long one so only do it if you’re up to the challenge ;)

#tag game #personal #long post #thanks for the tag!#i haven't been watching a lot of anime recently but this was fun!#<3

8 notes · View notes

surveys-at-your-service · 4 years

Text

Survey #281

“is there a method to your madness, is it all about pride? ‘cuz everyone i know, they’ve got a demon inside.”

Has anyone ever told you that you looked like a celebrity? No, just a video game character and an animated movie girl when I had black hair. What color is the pillowcase(s) on your bed? Brown. Do you have a favorite day of the week? Tuesday because it’s reset day in WoW and as a mount farmer, that means I get to try my raids for the week again to continue to be denied. :’) Have you ever been in an art show? An art show, I don’t think so. I’ve had two or three things in an art museum, though. Would you consider yourself to be well-exposed to life or sheltered? I’m pretty split down the middle, I’d say. I’ve seen far more emotional pain than I think most young adults have, but at the same time, I’ve very under-exposed to adult experiences. How high is your pain tolerance? It depends on the type of pain. I can particularly say I do NOT handle stomach pains well, though. Have you ever played the game Halo? Nah, those weren’t my type. Have you ever had to learn lines for a play/skit/movie? Only songs sung together for plays in elementary school. Never solo. Do you like your nose? … Sure? Kissing someone with facial hair, do you mind? I don’t care. Would you ever like to be a stunt person? I’m fucking dumb, I read this and thought “you mean little people?” until I read the last person’s answer lmaooo. Anyway, no. I’m not ballsy enough for that shit. Are you a pyromaniac? I find fire pretty, but it still can scare me if I’m too close to it. Are you one of those people who listen to songs on repeat? 110%, it’s literally what I’m doing now lmao. Can any of your friends sing very well? SARA. Would you ever enter any kind of pageant? No, no, no, no. I really don’t support pageants of any type I can think of, beauty in particular. What a way to scream “HEY THEY’RE BETTER THAN YOU!!!!!!!!!!!!!”, again, especially in beauty pageants. That fucks people up. What a way to start things like self-loathing, eating disorders, body dysphoria, etc. Do you have piano fingers? Mom has always told me that, “like Grammy.” Have you ever slept on a beach? YIKES, no. I ain’t fuckin’ with the tides going in and out or just a massive wave. I’d also feel WAY too vulnerable. Would you like to be taller? I’m cool with my current height. Are you a fan of piercings on the opposite sex? I just like piercings in general. Have you ever been attacked by an animal? No, besides play getting too rough. Is there a movie that makes you cry every single time you watch it? It’s easy to do that lol. The Notebook in particular will 100% make me tear up. What's your opinion on Johnny Depp? He’s an incredibly talented actor that I find very attractive, but I don’t know him as a person. Can you speak in different accents? Just British and southern. Who was the last person you mocked/mimicked? My nephew, playfully of course. If you write, isn't writer's block the most horrible thing? THE ABSOLUTE WORST. What size shirt do you normally wear? Ugggghhh generally 2XL, I think. It can be one size smaller or one size larger depending on the shirt. Has anyone ever aimed a gun at you? Yikes, no. Have you ever written a song? Just poems. Do you believe there is life on other planets? It’s possible, but I don’t particularly lean a certain way, I think. The universe is just… infinite, you know? But also the circumstances that life rose within Earth were so remarkably perfect to support it that I don’t entirely know if it’s been duplicated elsewhere. When was the last time you fell? Around two weeks ago? I have extremely low blood pressure naturally but also amplified by medications’ side effects, and I got out of bed too fast when I woke up. Hurt my knees pretty bad and barely missed my head hitting the couch. Do you have any sort of debt? I do NOT want to think about this. Is there a specific time period that interests you? The era of dinosaurs of course, as well as the Renaissance, just to name a couple. Do any of your friends own an expensive car? *shrugs* Have you ever been on a train? No. Have you ever been in a parade? No. Are you, or anyone you know, an atheist? I know plenty. Have you ever sent a celebrity fan mail? No. Have you ever been in a musical? No. Is there a friend's family that makes you feel like you're family too? Yeah, Sara’s. Even though I’ve only been with them not that long of a time, they’re wonderful and made me feel so welcome. Do you ever have a fear of getting close to new people? Boy, do I!!!!! It’s funny though, because at the same time, I want to be close with people; I want to rush to the point I have a close friend. It’s weird. What is the worst things about work? N/A And the best? N/A Do you like to sleep in? Not really, honestly. I feel groggy and lazier than I naturally am lmao. Do you like to be an early bird? Well I’m in my best mood in the morning, but I don’t like waking up early. However, I’ve been planning a morning routine to adopt once we move that involves waking up at like 7 or so, so we’ll see how much I enjoy mornings then. But oh boy do I have a habit of saying I’ll do something and then not doing it, so… What is something you notice you just don't watch? History stuff and usually action. Last thing that bothered you even if just a little bit? Something Miss Tobey said to me a few days ago. Last thing that seemed a blessing from above? I don’t believe in supernatural “blessings,” but I’ll bite. The thing that made me happiest recently was uhhhh… I actually don’t know. Nothing that REALLY felt “blessing-ish.” Do you usually drink diet or regular soda? Regular; I can’t do diet. It tends to taste horrible but more importantly the artificial sweetener gives me a wicked headache. Are you on a diet? Not a diet, no. I’m more so just trying to make it a habit to simply eat better and not snack. Someone you highly respect who is not in your family? Sara’s dad. Did you say 'goodnight' to anyone last night? I don’t think I did. Does anyone ever comment on the appearance of your handwriting? People tend to point out it’s really nice. Have you looked at anyone's Facebook profile lately? Whose? Nah. Did you have a cake for your last birthday? What kind? Yeah, red velvet. Can you recall the first horror film you ever watched? How old were you? I actually don’t think I can. Maybe Paranormal Activity? Or The Blair Witch Project? When’s the last time that you mailed a letter or a package to someone, and who was it to? Sara’s bday gift I think. The last book that you checked out from the library? I haven’t done that in years. What was your pet’s last vet visit concerning? Roman got neutered, and the only time I took Venus to the vet was when I first got her and she refused food for almost a year. Changed the tactic of warming the mouse up and she was more than happy to snag it. Which animals do you tend to go check out first at the pet store? The reptiles, because they’re closest and also my favorite section. Last medication or item that you picked out from the drugstore? Nicole picked up a bunch of my prescriptions that needed refilling. Do you usually have a big list or a small list when you go to the grocery store? I don’t do the shopping here, so it’s not my choice. How much was the last check you deposited? How about the last amount that you took out? I have no clue. Have you ever been admitted into the emergency room? For what? Being suicidal and then a suicide attempt. Have you ever been arrested before? Ridden in the back of a police car? No to the first, but yes to the second because that’s just how you’re transported from the ER to the psych hospital here. Have you ever been a victim of a house fire? Thank God no. When did you graduate high school? 2014. How much gas can fit in your gas tank? N/A Does your vehicle break down a lot? N/A What’s the longest you’ve ever had to wait before being seated at a sit-down restaurant? I want to say at LEAST 45 minutes once. Can’t remember why it was so busy, though. Have you ever had a cavity before? How about a root canal? A tooth pulled? Braces? I’ve had cavities and braces, but thank Christ no root canals, and I’ve never had to have a tooth pulled by the dentist, either. Which art forms do you appreciate the most? Man, you can’t ask this to someone who enjoys art so deeply. Like I really don’t know what I enjoy *most*. Music can give me chills, poetry can be so rich and, well, poetic, and traditional artwork strikes awe and makes you wonder how they do it. I just adore art. What is your favorite zoo animal that you would like to set free? To start, I have very mixed feelings about zoos, but I guess I am *mostly* in favor of humane, adequately providing captivity to a certain degree as this allows for conservation of especially endangered species, and zoos also make it easier to study and understand the silent voices of those we share the earth with. As well, they offer a safe environment to expose the fearful to all sorts of animals, and I feel it is very, very important for humans as the alpha species to care for and understand (as best our language barriers allow) our wonderful neighbors. That being said, I definitely believe that a lot of zoos under-provide for their animals, and this is horribly heartbreaking so that I absolutely disagree with their “right” to own and display animals, but for this specific question, I am going to use my state’s zoo as the standard here. Ashboro, imo is pretty damn great and generous to their animals (you should see the miles of land the elephants, bison, antelope, and rhinos have!), but the exhibit that comes to mind first when mentioning animals I’d like to set free iiiis… you know, I don’t know. I was going to say the polar bears since it can get STUPID hot here in the summer and their abode doesn’t have a great amount of ice that survives the sun, but at the same time I’d be very wary about returning a polar bear home for… obvious reasons. I say “I don’t know” because I’m not gonna pretend to know what ample space is for so many different kinds of animals. Damn, now I really wanna go there. Wow this was a long answer to a p simple question lmao. Favorite kind of fish? I don’t have a distinctly “favorite” fish, really. I don’t know enough of ‘em, but I can say I really like clownfish and angelfish. What kinds of museum artifacts fascinate you? Whew, as someone who took Art History just last year in school, ancient art pieces of all sorts! It is so, so fascinating, watching the evolution of art and to see how the urge to just create extends so, so far back into history. Have you ever gone to court before? For a disability case, yes. Also to convince a judge that I didn’t need to stay in a mental hospital for I think the original plan was around six months. What is the last song that you danced to? Ha ha I watching Hotel Transylvania with my niece and nephew and did the macarena with ‘em. What’s your favorite alcoholic drink? Margaritas or sangrias. Is there anyone that you’ve visited in jail? No. Are you more likely to fly in an airplane, or pick people up/drop them off at the airport? Historically, pick people up. Which sporting event would you be most likely to sit through? Dance competitions. Favorite flavor of ice cream? Cone or dish? Any sprinkles? My favorite Basic Bitch flavor is vanilla, just with chocolate syrup. Cone or dish just depends on what I’m feelin’, really. I hate sprinkles on anything; the texture throws me off. Have you ever cut your own hair? No. What do you eat most frequently? Uggghhhh some form of bread, probably. Are you a fan of video games? Yeah, but not as much as I used to be. What's your favorite color combination? Idk really, I like a lot. I will say though that orange and black excites me bc Halloween Vibes. Did you share a locker at school? No. What's one sport you could never play? Wrestling, ew. Have you ever sung karaoke? Oh god no. What is the oldest age you think should wear makeup? lmao BRO tell me this a joke How old were you when you went on your first date? Idr, sometime in the 7th grade, if group dates in middle school even count? lol Has anyone besides your family seen you naked? Yeah. If so, who? An ex and probably doctors at some point? Did your parents sign you up for anything you hated as a child? Sunday school, really. Have you purchased any cool objects from a foreign country? Considering I’ve never left the country, no. Are you on a laptop or a desktop computer right now? I only have a laptop. Do you remember anyone's number by heart? No, but I seriously need to memorize my mom’s. Do you live above, below, or on the Equator? Above. Do you know how to use Photoshop? I know how to do a decent number of things, but I’m definitely no expert. Where was your first job? I was a sales associate at GameStop. What's the best place you have ever eaten? Olive Garden is fucking fantastic, fite me about it. Do you own a hair straightener? No, I don’t need one. Are you barefoot right now? I always am at home unless it’s cold enough to need slippers. Are you subscribed to any magazine? Nah. Do you need AC right now? No; it’s actually pretty cold inside rn. Do more people call you by a nickname or your first name? It’s just a derivative of my first name; “Britt.” But I guess that classifies as a nickname. Name something you're proud of. Deciding to actually *try* to move on and making massive progress through it with That Person. Lately I’ve wondered if I truly have, though. My PTSD has been really bad of the late. Does any accent annoy you? I can’t say it “annoys” me, given you can’t really control your accent, but I do find it difficult to understand extremely southern accents, even as a local. Do you take vitamins? This just reminded me I’ve been out of my Vitamin D prescription for a while… oops. I’m supposed to take it for my legs. When was the last time you took aspirin or some other pain reliever? Yesterday, actually. I had a pretty bad headache. When was the last time you deeply regretted something? God, last night, I was remembering and accepting some things. Lemme just say I regret the everloving fuck out of the subject. What is something that you regularly wear that makes you stand out? Besides my lip ring, nothing in particular. Do you prefer small birthday parties or big ones? Small. I just don’t like big gatherings in general. What song are you listening to now? “Creatures X: To The Grave” by Motionless In White. What was the most traumatic experience of your life? The breakup w/ Jason. I’ve told the story enough in surveys and I don’t wanna recite it again. Who was your childhood best friend? Brianna. Are you still friends now? On Facebook, anyway, but we don’t talk. If not, why? We just drifted apart. What is one career you don't think you could do no matter how much it paid? Butcher. No fucking way. Have you ever edited Wikipedia? No. Have you ever edited any other wiki? Oh yeah; I’m an admin at the Silent Hill wiki and have invested hours upon hours upon hours helping out there for years. I’m also a content moderator at the Team Ico wiki, and I’ve also assisted a lot at the meerkats wiki because it is a fucking grammatical and formatting catastrophe. I think that’s it? Wait no, I did a few fixes on the Dragons of Atlantis wiki when it was still at the Kabam website, too. Is there a website [besides social networking] that you check almost daily? Yeah, a few. Do you get scared when you know some virus or sickness is being passed? I wouldn’t say I get scared, no. Just more aware and cautious. What’s the worst illness you’ve had? I’ve had a fucking wicked stomach virus before. (TMI alert?) I would not stop puking to the point it was agonizing to the point of tears because my muscles were so exhausted. Which do you prefer: M&M's, Skittles, or Reese's Pieces? BITCH can I choose all???? But in almost any chocolate-related case, I will choose a Reese’s product. Where on your body would you never get a tattoo? I don’t plan on getting a face tattoo, or at least a big one. Maybe something small and cute. OH YEAH EW absolutely never getting my sclera tattooed. That looks painful as a motherfucker. Honestly, have you ever stuck gum under a table or desk? No, that shit is disgusting. If your parents could read your thoughts, would you be in trouble? Not usually. Mom might be mad sometimes when I’m angry at her. Have you ever egged somebody's house or car? No, that’s childish as shit. My childhood house was egged once, so it pisses me off especially. Do you like licorice? UGH no, that shit is disgusting. Did anybody ever read bedtime stories to you when you were younger? My mom did. Which natural disaster do you find the most terrifying? Tornadoes or earthquakes. Do you have a favorite Johnny Depp movie? What is it? Alice in Wonderland. If I gave you a Yo-Yo right now, could you do any tricks? Nope.

#survey #quiz #questions #questionnaire

2 notes · View notes

mamaladykt · 4 years

Text

Quarantine Q&A

I was tagged by @queenrisa14 which whaaaaaaa!? God when will the Sally Fields "they like me!!!" feeling go away when ever I am tagged in anything? Does it ever? I'm always stunned people are aware of my existence. Thanks girl! Anywho!

Are you staying home from work/school?

Soooooooo, about this. Hehehe. I was working. I was considered essential. To the point that my 4 day a week job turning into 7 days a week, 12 hours a day for TWENTY days straight. It took a toll. On me and my kids. So, because my kids are now out of school for the rest of the school year, my schedule not allowing for any flexibility or a leave of absence, I put in notice last week and my last day was Monday night. I felt really good about it, felt free, came home tuesday morning and filed for unemployment on grounds of childcare needs (which was immediately flagged 🙄😭) and slept. Today was a new day, started cleaning my house for the first time in over a month...... and it went down hill from there. Horrendous night and not feeling great about the uphill battle that will be getting my kids (and husband) back on track. TL;DR yes I'm home, it's a mess.

If you're staying home, who's with you?

That would be my 5 children, my oldest daughter is 11 (dear God tween hormones are no joke!) and my 4 sons, who are 9, 7, 5, and 3. My husband is still working and I miss him during the day and wanted to boot him out tonight. Sigh.

Are you a homebody?

Yes!!! I'm an introvert. If I was well and truly alone, I would never need to leave my house. I have no issues with the idea of ordering groceries online, I just ordered my first ever iPad online and I'm trying to navigate buying glasses and contacts online (PM me with links of websites if you've done this and had a good experience). I just need Amazon to get their shit together and ship my stuff! This isn't the 90's it doesn't need to take a month to get me something. Gah! Also, if I could figure out how to get my ADHD diagnosis from home via telemedicine that would be greeeeeeeeat. Seriously never want to leave my house again.

What movies have you watched recently?

Hahahahahaha!!!!!!! Omg you think I watch movies... That's adorable. Yea, noooo. The last movie I watched was Frozen 2 when it hit Disney+ a month ago. I am, however trying to gear myself up emotionally for watching Avengers Infinity War and Endgame this Sunday. It's been a year..... I'm still not ok. And I haven't watched since that fateful day in the theaters. No seriously, I cried last night just hearing the opening notes to the IW TRAILER! The trailer y'all. "There was an idea....." 😭😭 Ugly sob.

Shows?

Umm, I was watching Outlander at work. I binge watched the first four seasons in like a month back in January. Couldn't wait for season 5 and lost all steam once it started. I dunno. I think it's the Brianna story line. Other than that I honestly throw on Downton Abbey or Victoria again when I need something to watch. (can you tell I have a thing for accents...) I'd love to binge watch in order from the beginning The Big Bang Theory! If anyone knows where I can get the series to stream, let me know. I've watched it out of order for years and years and love it so much but seeing it start to finish sounds like a perfect quarantine activity.

What event was cancelled that you were looking forward to?

My kids going to school on a daily basis?? Lol. No, you know what's funny. I've never gone, didn't have plans to go, but I actually shed a tear when they cancelled Comic Con 2020 in San Diego. I was hoping to go next year so it was a mix of disappointment over not streaming this year's panels/the historical significance of there not being one and feeling like next year is now unattainable because all the 2020 ticket holders will get that one? It's weird and all hypothetical and stupid. Honestly I'm a mom and I don't get to do anything. The most exciting thing on my "to-do" list that was postponed was the Black Widow movie. I have waiting 10 goddamn years for my girl to get a solo movie! TEN YEARS!!!! I needed this to distract from the 1 year anniversary of losing Tony Stark Endgame. Gah. I'm also holding my breath that Sailor Moon Crystal the movie doesnt get postponed from September to God knows when. And my October trip to Orlando for Girl Scouts USA Convention isn't canceled. I'm going to Disney World!! If Florida isn't stup.... Yea ok. 😑😒😞

What Music are you listening to?

My Seiya playlist. I have a playlist of music that I think Seiya would sing. Cuz I love him and he's cheeky and in my head he's a weird mix of Adam Levine and Brendon Urie and that's what the playlist is full of. And this one song by Dermot Kennedy called Outnumbered that is just, IMO Seiya's parting words to Usagi. That and I'm kind of obsessed with Dance Monkey by Tones and I.

What are you reading?

Other than articles about the CARES act regarding unemployment benefits, reviews of cases and accessories for my new iPad Pro (it's the 12.9 and I had no idea I bought the big one and that it's basically a touch screen iMac and I'm overwhelmed with trying to find something to protect it from my children....) or homeschool tips and tricks for kids with autism.......

So help me God, I am reading The Unintentional Seduction of Chiba Mamoru if it freaking kills me. It's been on my to-read list for freaking ever and I am dying that I haven't read it yet. And kind of hating myself. Come on KT, get your ish together sis!!! I'm sorry @floraone !!

What are you doing for self-care?

I quit my job for one. That was the ultimate self-care move. That and for my kids.

Also, Online shopping? I have purchased things for myself that I have never done before. Makeup which is so fun. Like I bought the whole Sailor Moon makeup collection from Colour Pop. I got my first Morphe palette. And big girl concealer from Tarte. Yaaaaas! My iPad and all the pink accessories I can find. A pink throw blanket because my kids have a million blankets but we have no throw blankets for the couch. What the hell? And my favorite thing, I bought a bunch of stuff from teepublic with my profile picture on it from the artist @briannacherrygarcia (seriously her work is amazing! Go check her out, I can't get enough) that created it. I mean, how cool is that. I'm usually too poor to support the content creators for which I am so grateful for. After working three 84hr weeks, I figured I deserved to splurge on something that wasn't in anyway shape or form a need. A pure joyful want. Cant be excused as anything else. It felt so good. I got stickers and an art print and a coffee mug (because coffee mugs are my favorite thing and I somehow do not have enough of them so if anyone wants to send me pretty coffee mugs!) And a hoodie!! I'm so excited.

That last question is amazing. I was feeling so down and overwhelmed by just how bad my home and everyone in it was doing after I was working so much. I am not exaggerating saying it going to take weeks to put this back together and help my kids get used to having rules and structure again. Because it wasn't gonna be a quick fix I was hating life. But listing all the ways that I managed to take care of me, something I never do, because that's what I needed the last month to literally survive, reminded me that I am in a good place and that I have time now to get this done. It took a month to get to this level of chaos it only stands to reason that it's probably gonna take a month to put it back. And shit it's not like we're going anywhere. What's the rush? ❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️

Thanks @queenrisa14 for this! This was great and fun and so needed for my psyche. I tag anyone on my follows list who hasn't done this. Do it and say I tagged you.

MamaLK says take care of you and the rest will fall into place! 😘

#quarantine activities #self care #we got this #tagged

10 notes · View notes

bigskydreaming · 5 years

Text

Okay, I knew Alistair the Dream-Keeper wasn’t the first time I’d written the idea of magically weaponized dreams, so I went hunting through old email accounts and found a whole fucking manuscript I wrote like, twelve years ago and totally forgot about. WHOOPS. (This happens with me more often than you’d think actually possible). I’m only a third of the way through my re-read of it, but it holds up surprisingly well IMO, I’m pretty pleased. I can actually do something with this, I think.

Course, it was apparently written back during my whole “every thing must be hetero otherwise there will be no publishing” period, before the beginning of my personal Age of LOL Nah, Fuck That, Everything Must Be Gay. So, first things first, Jez definitely needs a girlfriend, and also a different name. I can’t believe I named her Jez, like, wow, I was really trying to get YA Bingo, wasn’t I? In my defense, this was when I was twenty-three. Also, this first chapter here has a character named Scott and this was before Teen Wolf even premiered, so apparently I just like the name Scott? Huh. Did not know.

BURNING DAYLIGHT

Jez O’Neill knows she has three years, two months, and sixteen days to live.

She’s had visions for as long as she can remember. She knows they’re never wrong. And when the boy her visions say will someday kill her comes into her life, she knows to stay far away.

But somehow he gets close anyways. Because Nathan is perfect. He’s handsome, he’s charming, he’s utterly, unbearably sweet. And when he learns of Jez’s visions, he promises to cheat Death for her. An interest in New Age turns into an obsession with the occult, and that leads to tiny cracks in the walls of the world, where strange and untrustworthy spirits wait to barter with anyone desperate enough to try.

Magic, however, always comes with a price. The higher the reward you seek, the more you can expect to pay, and the spell Nathan thinks will change their destiny instead puts them on a collision course with Fate. It changes him, twists him in mind and soul, transforming the boy Jez loves into the madman who will someday take her life.

With only three years left until the day she now knows she can’t avoid, Jez discovers she and Nathan share the same zipcode again as he sows death and destruction in the streets of LA. But rather than flee for another city, Jez pits herself against the monster she once loved, the monster she helped create, determined to make sure no one else gets caught in the crossfire of their attempt to cheat their fates.

Call it redemption if you want. Jez calls it Tuesday.

Chapter 1

Dreams are doorways if you have the right key.

That’s why I’ve wasted a perfectly good Sunday night perched on the edge of Scott Kinley’s desk. It’s awkward, uncomfortable, and I’m sure I look like a gargoyle in the pitch dark of the two o’clock hour, but every chair in his bedroom is covered in dirty teenage boy laundry. I’ll stick with my perch, thanks.

I kick my legs out and arch my spine, stretching my arms over my head with fingers laced together. Cramped and aching muscles voice their protest. Something cracks in my neck when I roll my head back. Meanwhile, Scott Kinley snores contentedly in his sleep in the bed across the room. I shoot him a glare that’s best described as withering.

Spears of pale moonlight slip through the slatted blinds covering the window above his bed. They stab the length of his body, highlighting a strong jawline and tousled blond hair, not to mention a chest and set of abs that frankly, I just find obnoxious on a fellow teenager. It’s L.A. in early September – code for unbearably hot – and he’s sleeping with the bare minimum of sheets, a loose span of cotton that’s only covering him up to his waist. I’d enjoy the cheap thrill more if it didn’t make me feel like such a perv.

After all, I’m a total stranger who broke into his house and has spent the last four hours going through his things and watching him sleep. It’s kinda hard to feel good about that. In my defense, I’m only here to save his life from a creepy magical serial killer. Course, I have strong doubts that would hold up in a court of law should he wake up and have me arrested for breaking and entering. But I still feel it’s worth mentioning.

A yawn and a glance at his alarm clock confirm that it’s 2:07 am and I have no life. I lean back on the desk and rifle through his homework some more as I go back to invading his privacy. My only defense here is I’m really bored.

His handwriting’s slightly more legible than your average garden-variety chicken scratch, but I’m still not one hundred percent his name’s Scott Kinley. The Scott part is clear, but the ‘I’ in what I think is Kinley could be a really jacked up ‘o’ I guess. Whatever. It’s a pre-calculus assignment, and the last yearbook on his bookshelf is from his sophomore year, so I’m guessing he’s a junior like me. Or like I would be, if I still bothered going to school. Hmm. Eleventh grade and already in precalc? Someone’s a smarty-pants. Interesting.

A row of trophies and a couple of team photos declare him a water polo jock, and not too shabby of one according to this MVP title. Explains the abs. I roll my eyes around the rest of the room. Small TV so old it has a VCR player built into it. An even older Sega Genesis console is hooked up to it, so either Scott’s big on nostalgia or his family’s not big on luxuries. There’s a couple of movie posters tacked to the wall, but the puddle of light leaking across the floor doesn’t reach far enough for me to make out any details. Then a freestanding bookcase, a good five shelves high, filled with actual books. Above it is a college pennant with a bear on it – I think that’s Cal Berkeley, right? Possible destination, I’m guessing….

God. And he was in bed by ten. Smart, good-looking, athletic and ambitious. Did his parents just win the baby lottery, or if I go down the hall will I find the altar they used to bargain with the Devil?

Not that it matters. I stretch my legs out again and dip my toes into the pool of moonbeams, watching them spill across my feet when I wiggle. It’s only been six months since my last boyfriend went all dark side on me and turned into a spell-wielding slaughterhouse. I’m kind of not dating right now.

So it’s only natural my visions would lead me to the most eligible teen bachelor in Los Angeles – I cast another quick look around the desk for the requisite ‘me and my girlfriend’ photo – nope, most eligible teen bachelor in Los Angeles. Ugh. It’s like announcing your diet and inheriting a pastry shop the next day. I feel a sudden urge to grab one of his dirty shirts off the floor just to make sure his one human flaw is real and not an illusion.

Wow. I can’t believe I just thought that. Apparently sleep deprivation makes me weird. Besides, there’s no way that smell could be imaginary.

I throw another withering glare in Scott’s direction. It’s his fault I’m a weird, sleep-deprived pervert in his stinky bedroom. My baleful stare bakes the air above his bed. It bends and twists like a summer heat wave on asphalt. Wait. That’s not right.

I shake my head, peering through the fog that shrouds my tired mind. Somewhere in my snooping I failed to notice Scott’s happy snores had turned into frantic whimpers. He’s writhing on his bed; sweat beads all over his restless body, glistening like fragile pearls in the faint light. The room is abruptly a sauna. Heat climbs the walls and steam mists the glass of the picture frames.

“Shit,” I whisper, and I’m in motion, leaping off the desk into a crouch. I dip my hand into my hoodie and whip out my knife, steel slicing moonbeams to ribbons as the blade springs free. A low keening shreds the silence, hoarse spectral shouts as faces flicker through the knife, reflected in the steel. I cross the room in three steps. Scott cries out. His fingers scratch at the air like crooked claws.

Somewhere a door opens, and something steps through. Between the space of one second and the next, a heavy silhouette takes shape on this side of the dream.

I slam into the figure with all my weight, blade aimed for the midsection where I’m hoping vital organs will be. The knife sinks in too easily. The sandman-born beastie is still in that transitive state where its dream wrought form has yet to shift all the way down the spectrum to vulnerable flesh. Then my knife catches and scrapes against bone. The nightmare screams as it sinks its roots into our reality and feels pain for the first time.

It’s tougher to pull the blade free, but I’m stronger than any normal seventeen year old girl has a right to be. More specifically, as long as I’m wielding that knife I’m as strong as all the monsters it’s killed combined. And I’ve racked up a decent body count. Blood and bile sprays in slow motion, a cresting wave of black tar. A few drops land on my arm. There’s a hissing sound and I feel like I’m on fire. I grit my teeth and swing again. It dodges and I miss. We both regroup, and I get my first good look at it.

Damn. Mr. Perfect Teen USA has one hell of a fucked up subconscious. I’m just saying.

The nightmare swallows what dim light comes near it, refusing to be illuminated. It’s thick, ridged with protrusions of bone and slick scales that shimmer with their own dark radiance. A trunk-like torso gives way to stocky legs. At certain angles they seem to merge into a single column similar to a snake. It has four arms, except for when it has six – and then two and then twelve and then they’re not arms at all, but tentacles. The head is a gaping chasm of teeth and forked tongue surrounded by a lion’s mane of mottled skin. It’s dizzying and hard to look at. Confusing and chaotic. The only constant is its ugliness.

I charge at it, because I’m just that dumb. Hey, only the good die young.

It dips to the side, cobra-quick, and its tail snaps out like the crack of a whip. I take the hit square in my ribs and I’m lifted off my feet, flying back across the room. My breath flees from my lungs, my head slams back into a wall. I bite my tongue and taste copper.

“Rude,” I gasp.

Scrambling up to snatch my knife from where I dropped it mid-flight, I steal strength from its macabre magic. Even still, regaining my feet takes effort and time I don’t have to spare. The nightmare’s turned its attention back to Scott. He’s finally awake and sitting up his bed. Pale, frightened, and totally out of his league. Considering we were dealing with his worst nightmare in every literal sense of the word, I cut him some slack. I’m a good person.

I roll forward and rake my cursed blade along the creature’s side on my way. It rears and screams again. Dimly I hear footsteps and distant shouting.

“What the hell is that thing?” Scott asks, eyes locked on the beastie like a man entranced. Oh good, he can talk. I was starting to wonder. I duck around the nightmare and stick myself in between it and him.

“Don’t ask me. It’s your childhood trauma,” I say, hefting my knife and gauging distance. “Now shut up, don’t die, and for god’s sake put on some pants.”

I lunge and bury my knife in the thing’s throat. I’m liking my odds less and less when it still finds the strength to knock my grip loose and drop me on my ass. More blood drips down on me, igniting nerve endings everywhere it touches my skin. Let’s recap. I have spunk, pizzazz, seven spells and a cursed knife on my side. It has burning blood, a build like a freight train, and claws and fangs that seem to multiply every time I look at it. It leans forward and roars its hostility right in my face.

Also, it has halitosis.

A swipe of its many tentacle-arms knocks me back and to the side again. I land on the floor, staring up at the bookshelf. It’s tricky reading the titles from my upside-down vantage point, but I hazily make out the collected works of one H.P. Lovecraft. That explains a lot.

“You know, there are worse things in the world than being a cliché,” I complain, glowering over my shoulder at Scott. He has the decency to look ashamed, over where he’s huddled on the other side of the desk. Course, I’m sure he has no idea what he’s ashamed of, but my tone conveys the point rather well, I think. “Seriously. The dumb jock thing. Just give it a try.”

Mano a mano isn’t working out too well for me so I switch tactics. I toss a quick ‘Hail Mary’ skyward, kick off my shoes and chant the most powerful – and dangerous – of my seven spells. It’s a nasty little sucker I bartered for in the second sphere, the Circle of Fire. I rattle off short, harsh syllables that climb reluctantly from the base of my throat, guttural utterances that were never meant to be made by a human voice. I dip my fingers in moonlight and etch glowing hieroglyphics in the air – they hang there for a moment, sharply luminescent in the seconds before they fade to black.

Staccato snaps and pops ring out. The alarm clock short circuits. Streetlights flicker and die. Every electronic in a fifty meter radius develops a sudden terminal illness and the air feels flooded. Thick and heavy with static as thousands of wayward electrical impulses conduct themselves through the atmosphere to me. I dig my toes into the heavy carpet and feel the hair on my head stand on end. Then I’m running, my nervous system supercharged with too much speed and power to contain long. I duck past the nightmare’s swinging arms – it might as well be lumbering at tortoise speed – and plant a single palm flat on its back.

My touch hits it like a thunderbolt, lightning barreling down the synapses in my arm and ripping into it with hurricane fury. It squeals and goes airborne, crashing into the desk and reducing it to kindling. Scott falls back, mouth open, and smoke wisps up from the creature’s motionless body.

For a second, I dare to hope it’s dead. It would be really awesome for me if it were. That was my most powerful offensive spell and using it comes with a one in ten chance of killing the spellcaster. So, you know. I’d really like to not have to use it again, please.

The nightmare heaves itself to its feet-tail, sending spears of desk turned firewood flying about the room. Some of the shrapnel heads my way and I cover my eyes. Splinters gouge at my palms. I peek past my fingers, and in a blur of motion the creature crosses the room and throws itself through the window. It rips through the blinds and shards of glass fountain into the hot summer night. The darkness outside swallows it whole.

“I hate you,” I casually inform the universe.

I pick past debris and make for the window. Or what’s left of it anyways. The house is on a hill, high enough elevation that glass from the window is still showering to the ground below. Chiming, delicate drops of crystal rain. City lights gleam from one horizon to the next. A pitch-black shadow makes its way across distant rooftops, dark even against the darkness, like a spreading oil stain spilling towards the downtown metropolis. Lovely.

“What the hell is going on?” Scott finally finds his voice again, but I have no time to soothe his shattered nerves or offer an introductory course on Things That Go Bump in the Night 101. I run my hands through my frizzy, static-damaged hair.

“That was disgusting, you need therapy, and the pants thing was not a suggestion,” I inform him, bending to retrieve my knife. Scott flushes and grabs the sheet off the bed. He doesn’t even try and peek at my ass. A piece of the Scott Kinley puzzle clicks into place, and I feel a tiny bit better.

“Hey, quick question. Are you gay?”

His jaw drops, but he recovers fairly quickly. “What – how did you – I mean, why?”

I shrug. “No reason. Just won a bet with myself is all.”

Hey, it’s the little things in life. I turn back to the window and track the nightmare’s course. Picking a rooftop a few buildings ahead of it, I prick my thumb and whisper a spell from the seventh sphere, the Celestial Circle. I sketch bloody sigils in the moonbeams cascading through the open window. They turn pale and faint and I grab their remnants like door handles. The silver light parts, a gauzy curtain opening on a window to a distant rooftop far below.

I cast a sigh at the bewildered boy behind me and step through. It’s probably for the best. Like I said, I’m kinda not dating right now anyways.

The curtain falls shut behind me and I resume my hunt.

#Burning Daylight #kalen writes things sometimes

5 notes · View notes

moonlight-at-dawn · 5 years

Text

fwaaaaa.......tired but... accomplished....

wanted to go to the ocean this week but then my goddamn period was like “hey, time to dump all this trash during the exact 2 days that you were thinking of going anywhere fun” and ugh lol

so instead of going to the water, Mika and I went to Michaels and I grabbed a craft cart along with fun stuff, built it and loaded it up, and now I feel more able to think about my projects, with so much in one place and easy to grab and move around now :3

then yesterday was a.... weird day. Kiddo is having a rough time in school. Some of it is just kids being kids (aka quick to make judgments and jump on bandwagons without thinking of consequences involved) and some of it is that my kiddo has a really tough time managing his reactions. Although his reactions have become more pronounced because of the neighbor’s cruelty to him. Goddamn every adult in this house hates that kid lmao he’s such a piece of shit, since day one he’s been making fun of my kid for being interested in different things, we’ve had to be the ones to teach that kid about things like CONSENT (*playing with another neighborhood kid, a younger girl* “She’s my girlfriend, I can do whatever I want to her!” “THAT’S NOT HOW THAT WORKS” fucking HORRIFYING, I MEAN REALLY, WHERE DID HE *HEAR* THAT!?), just, ugggghhhhh is it okay to call a 7 year old an asshole??? I mean, not to his face, of course, but just, in general. ofc also blame his parents, but really, this fucking child............

But anyways, that kid and his friend (who he likes to “show off” for - aka be extra mean to others when he’s around) swung by on Tuesday and I had bought my kid spray cans of chalk and he showed it to them, and they fucking sprayed him with the chalk (just on the hand) and tried to get him in trouble for it, so my kid lost his shit (reasonably so imo, though ofc he needs to learn how to better express himself upon losing his shit ahahah...) and SCREAMED at them to leave and never come back, and honestly I agree, they aren’t allowed over ever again unless they get their shit together and stop being pricks for cool points

After that, though, yesterday was... Kiddo refused to go to school, threw a huge fit, did later apologize for it, but it was really really bad. We wound up not bringing him to school even late, we said it was a family issue and kept him home, he helped me clean my room and we did some crafts. We did let him go to martial arts (I mean, we’re paying for it...... lol) and he had his stripe testing! I was surprised it was happening so quickly, the classes haven’t been running long, it’s a new school, but I guess it’s gonna be just part of the monthly schedule, so if nothing else, it was to accustom them to the process.

But my kiddo got his first stripe!! :3 And he was the only one!! :O And he also won, they did a little fitness challenge. I’m so proud of him! Last year one of his big issues and something that qualified him for sp.ed. is that his endurance was far lower than it should have been. And now he won a little fitness challenge in martial arts in a class where all but one kid is older than him, mostly by a couple of years, and he got to stand at the front with the instructor while they got everyone else doing jumping jacks and push ups and stuff.

It was, perhaps, too nice of a day for a kid that stayed home because he spent the early morning shouting and arguing, but he did make it up by apologizing without prompting and helping me clean and making no other such complaints the rest of the day. And we had talks about kids being mean and how we understand how it becomes easy to lash out when you’re used to people being mean to you, but it’s not okay, etc etc, and I don’t know, we’ll see ofc, it’s not like any behavioral thing can be solved in a single day’s instance, but he did seem to truly understand as we talked, so I hope it’ll be... easier, when those moments pop up in the future, to revisit this conversation and move on without much argument.

Today is something at his school where they sing and stuff, so I’ll be going to that in a couple hours... I’ll probably just take him home after, since it’s nearly the end of the day anyway. I’m kinda running on fumes after the last two days lol, but as long as I can make it through today......

idk if we’ll go see Detective Pikachu today or a different day..... I’m super excited for it lmao, and so is my kid, but we may be the only ones who really care XDDD Like, there’s interest from others, but the kid and I are amped for the movie x3

#misha rambles

3 notes · View notes

winedownwithcoffee · 6 years

Text

DWTS Season 27 Trash Thoughts

Guys. I know you missed me. It’s been while since I did this. Little info, I watch it live, then I rewatch it when I avoid work on Tuesdays and type up my thoughts while watching. I am gonna say straight off the bat this is a weird season. There was no CLEAR CUT winner. And I think that leaves the playing field wide open. Which is good for some of the contestants. OKAY onwards to the ramblings!

Opening Number: Chaotic. Like that is my main thought. Pretty but chaotic. The costumes we pretty though. The ending was cute though. And I love the partnerships this season so much.

MLR & Sasha: I didn’t grow up with her, so I don’t really care one way or the other for her and when you pair her with Sasha she was doomed for me. The dance was cute. She was super excited and overly bouncy and got off time a few times and missed some spots BUT Sasha did great choreography I will say. She seemed like she was trying to pose a lot also. Gah Sasha annoys me. Just his face. Anyway. They were giving her some good feedback overall. Does she have a lisp? Not that anything is wrong with that, I am just genuinely curious. Scores 6-7-6. My Unwanted and Unwarranted 4th Judge Vote: 6

Milo & Wit: So I had no idea who he was until the GMA reveal, then my kid came home one day and said he wanted to watch Z-O-M-B-I-E-S and now we have watched it 64 times. He’s cute and sweet and I like him. I didn’t like their package because it was ALL about Wit’s zombie questions. He has a natural charisma and stage presence. He was really good tonight. And it wasn’t awkward or anything like some teen boys get. It was real good! Good critiques imo. He’s so articulate for a 17 year old boy. 7-6-7. 4th Judge me: 7.5

Evanna & Keo: I’m going to start before I watch saying Len is on crack. Okay on to the package. She’s cute, but unfortunately they gave her a shit spot in the lineup and she has a bit of a forgettable quality to her. I called my Memaw after the show and she asked if Keo danced tonight. So…. The dance was pretty. The solo parts at the beginning were really good then they got in hold and Keo just seems so rushy and like he’s throwing her around. But her lines were beautiful and their outfits look like James and Sharna. Shitty score from Len. 7-5-6. 4th judge me: 7

Danelle & Artem: Preparing myself to cry now. I was SO ANXIOUS for this but MY MAN DELIVERED!! I loved him teaching her. He was SO patient and kind and loving and gah I love him so much more now. She learns by touching. You can see in the beginning how anxious she was until Artem gets her down those stairs and the smile just illuminates and GAH ALL THE TEARS. And his choreography was beautiful and perfect for her. The trust already and the tears and omg I am sobbing again. And her amazing puppy!!! GAH I love this partnership so much. LMAO Bruno showing her the muscle like she can see it. When I first watched this, I was utterly speechless. I had NO WORDS. Carrie Ann is me. 6-6-6 4th Judge me 7

Bobby & Sharna: WHEW Bobby. Okay let’s do this buddy. I always die at these “meet your partner” things that happen 2 weeks after they have met. OMG I loved the package. OKAY the dance. He needs to shut his mouth but he didn’t get off time for most of the dance. His kicks were in time but he needs to shut his mouth my GOD. Then he just got so damn EXCITED. OMG he is so excited. WOW. Woah. I am having secondhand embarrassment for that ending. But god his enthusiasm. The critiques were good though. He went FULL FREAKING BRUNO. Wow, he was just so excited. I am just like woah. He is the most memorable part of this entire opening and I think that was an actually good play right then and if Sharna wasn’t SO surprised I would think they planned it. 7-6-7 4th Judge Me: 7 until the end LOL

JP & Cheryl: gotta bring in Jodie and Cameron of course lol. I am expecting a TON from him. They have the chemistry. But like he really only danced half the time. I was just really let down from this one. But he will make it through because he’s hot af. And I 100% agree with the judges for this one. 7-7-8 4th Judge Me: 7

Nikki & Gleb: No truer statement has been made than “you look like you should be constantly emerging from a pool in slow motion that is how hot you are”. I heard no lies there Nikki. Unfortunately, doing a Salsa after JP was her downfall. Also she doesn’t move those hips that much. But yeah she’s going home tonight. She was excited though. 6-5-6 4th Judge Me: 5

Alexis & Alan: I’ll be honest, I chose not to watch them last night. I had other shit to do. I love Alan though. I really do. He did not make it easy on her. And they are cute af. She missed some hand grabs but overall a very cute little routine. They cute though. I ship em. Why not, I ship everyone else. Critiques were good. Look at those intertwined fingers man. They’d have pretty babies. 7-7-7 4th judge me: 7

John & Emma: He was not nearly as bad as I anticipated. Cute little intro. That southern accent though, that was a choice. His Frame needs work but it was a stellar effort and the man can kick higher than me. Good critiques and scores. I was just meh about it. 7-5-6 4th Judge Me: 6

Tinashe & Brandon: She seems braggy some. OMG Brandon is adorable. I expect a Lot from this dance. And overall it was good. Halfway through she just seemed a little lost but overall it was decent. She was so over-hyped though imo. I liked Alexis’ Jive wayyyyyyy more. Good critiques though. 8-7-8 4th Judge me: 7

Nancy & Val: I hate her outfit. She looks pretty but I hate that dress. SORRY GOT SIDETRACKED. Watched Rashad with the costume designers. I still can’t believe they got quickstep on night one. That’s rough. It wasn’t bad but it was so mediocre and it was good for a nondancer doing a freaking quickstep. Good critiques. 6-6-6 4th Judge me: 6

Jenna and Joe: I’m sorry. I can’t watch the dance again. I saw it last night. It was decent until it went off the freaking rails. Their package was cute though and he’s realllllll cute. Her fangirling was cute. And she looks freaking stunning. HARSH critiques. Pretty unnecessarily harsh imo. He can redeem himself tonight because we all know he isn’t going home tonight. 5-4-5 4th Judge me: 5

Demarcus & Linds: He’s pretty. He’s charismatic. He is freaking ripped. He has Linds. He’s not going anywhere for a LONG while. I liked them. I feel like there is some Football Fatigue. The dance was good. Real good like we expected. He isn’t as good as Rashad but he has a looooooot of potential. He got a bit overzealous once or twice and I thought he was going to chunk linds across the floor LMAO. 8-7-8 4th Judge me: 8

So my PERSONAL ranking of the dances on night one:

Demarcus Danelle Milo Bobby Alexis Evanna John JP Tinashe Nancy MLR Nikki Joe

But yeah Nikki is going home

#dwts27

8 notes · View notes

theliberaltony · 7 years

Link

via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.

micah (Micah Cohen, politics editor): For your consideration today: Can Republicans find a way to stop nominating toxic (perhaps fatally flawed) candidates?

The immediate spark for this question is, of course, the GOP managing to lose a Senate seat in Alabama, one of the reddest states in the nation. But there’s a long (recent) history of other races the GOP has seemingly thrown away with bad candidates.

For example …

harry (Harry Enten, senior political writer): Ken Buck in Colorado in 2010.

Sharron Angle in Nevada in 2010.

Christine O’Donnell in Delaware in 2010.

clare.malone (Clare Malone, senior political writer): Todd Akin in Missouri in 2012.

harry: Richard Mourdock in Indiana in 2012.

micah: Also, before we really get going, I just wanted to note that Nate wanted today’s chat to be about why Doug Jones is a legit 2020 presidential contender.

natesilver (Nate Silver, editor in chief): That was Harry’s idea. He got it from a Twitter egg and talked about it on the podcast Tuesday night.

harry: There are no eggs anymore.

natesilver: My idea is that he’ll be the vice presidential nominee to a female nominee.

clare.malone: aaaaand we’re already sidetracked.

micah: In fairness, that was my fault.

harry: It’s always your fault.

micah: OK, so let’s start with why the GOP keeps putting up toxic candidates. (Then we’ll dive into ways they can not do this.)

What’s going on here?

In Alabama, for example, Republicans had two other deeply conservative, perfectly viable primary candidates — Luther Strange and Mo Brooks. They went with Moore.

clare.malone: The GOP base has gotten a lot more conservative.

harry: It ranges, right? In Alabama, the GOP establishment candidate, Strange, was flawed too, with ties to an unpopular governor. (Brooks, on the other hand, likely could have beaten Moore in the runoff.) In Delaware in 2010, the GOP candidate running against O’Donnell was too liberal for the base.

But at the end of the day, it’s the voters who are doing this.

natesilver: I’m not sure it’s just that the base has gotten more conservative, in a traditional left-right sense. It’s more that Republicans have been trained to distrust the establishment and distrust the media, and some candidates have been able to exploit that.

clare.malone: Well, GOP voters certainly identify as more conservative:

And those things that you mention, Nate, are now intertwined with what it means to be a conservative in America.

harry: Dare I say it’s both?

micah: I think Clare is write that they’re intertwined now.

natesilver: I actually don’t think it’s both. President Trump’s nomination last year is fairly powerful evidence of this, IMO. Because he was one of the least conservative candidates in the field, in kind of an American Conservative Union sense.

micah: But when someone identifies as conservative these days, part of what they mean is “anti-establishment.”

clare.malone: Right. Most people don’t think in DW-Nominate scores; they think in terms of where their views fall on our cultural spectrum. And conservatism has taken on new contours — it’s not about economics anymore.

Right? Or, that’s not the motivating factor for voters.

natesilver: I don’t think “conservative” is a good term to describe those characteristics. Among other reasons, because it’s quite a radical viewpoint in some ways.

harry: Sometimes it really is about ideology though.

micah: But anti-establishment sentiment seems to correlate so strongly with “conservative,” Nate.

So, it’s like: There’s nothing about old-school conservatism that leads to toxic candidates. But contemporary conservatism is, in part, defined by anti-establishmentism. And that does lead to toxic candidates.

natesilver: Right and then we had a test case — named Donald Trump — who kept all the anti-establishment parts and dropped the movement conservatism. And he did just great. It’s just one data point, but a pretty influential one.

clare.malone: Yeah … I think it’s not just that some of these candidates are anti-establishment. It’s that there’s a certain strain of contrarianism that runs in the veins of some of these candidates.

micah: I think we’re having a semantics debate and in fact we all agree.

clare.malone: This is what we have to do when we agree!

micah: lol

harry: I hate you all.

clare.malone: The people want to see a fight.

micah: OK, so far we have: Republicans are more prone to nominating toxic candidates because anti-establishmentism has become so core to the party.

But why has anti-establishmentism become so core?

And why can’t they nominate an anti-establishment candidate who nonetheless appeals to a broad swath of a general electorate?

natesilver: Because anti-establishmentism is sort of defined by opposition to established order, and the established order is usually popular.

clare.malone: Conservatism is about, on a simplistic level, reducing government intrusion, allowing people the freedom to think and act as they like, within reason. (If you want to see a version of “think and act as they like, with no bounds of reason,” talk to some folks at a Libertarian convention.)

When the culture is moving at rapid clip toward cultural liberalism — the acceptance of what was not long ago considered out of the norm, such as allowing women to have abortions, gay marriage, the widespread acceptance of premarital sex — then you see more and more candidates capitalizing on an appeal to people who feel more and more like they are in an out group.

micah: Oh god, Clare … your inbox will suffer for that libertarian comment.

harry: It’s also important that Republicans don’t have a sizable group of base voters who are generally pro-establishment. Democrats have that with African-American voters, who delivered the nomination to Hillary Clinton in 2016.

natesilver: Now, in theory, anti-establishmentism could morph into populism, which can be more successful as a long-term, majoritarian political strategy. But that would require Republicans to give up putting so much emphasis on things like tax cuts.

harry: Well, that’s what’s so bizarre, right?

clare.malone: Right, in theory. But as of yet, with the exception of Trump, the anti establishment/contrarian GOP candidates have been more in the vein of culture warriors. Right?

micah: Yeah, Moore, Akin, etc. were definitely not populists.

natesilver: I think a few of the tea party candidates in 2010 weren’t really culture warriors. Like, Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson isn’t a culture warrior. But he sure as hell isn’t a populist, either.

clare.malone: Well, he won! So he wasn’t a bad candidate. He was more buttoned-up. And I think it helps to have a more buttoned-up facade if you’re going to run as an ideological anti-establishment person.

micah: Yeah, I wouldn’t put Johnson in this group.

clare.malone: This is actually where I think sexism and people’s unwillingness to see women as “serious” politicians comes into play with someone like Kelli Ward in Arizona’s Senate race.

Ward has been easily painted as a crazy conspiracy theorist when in fact she never said she believes in chemtrails.

She made an ill-advised comment to a constituent that she would be happy to answer questions about it. But a lot of the “chemtrail Kelli” stuff is excellent spin against her from fellow Republicans.

micah: I didn’t know that!

natesilver: Wait, chemtrails aren’t real?

clare.malone: Guys, this was the lede of my piece about the Arizona race!

micah: Busted.

(Kidding, I read that.)

harry: Oh boy.

clare.malone: From my piece:

Polished might not be what you’d expect from Ward if you first heard about her, as many outside Arizona did, in an ad from the Mitch McConnell–allied Senate Leadership Fund PAC that labeled her “Chemtrail Kelli,” a nickname spun out of an incident at a Ward town hall where she didn’t shoot down constituent concerns about the chemtrails conspiracy theory.

I mean, maybe that’s a more precise way to say it, but she was never saying, “Hell yeah, chemtrails are gonna killlll you.”

micah: What are chemtrails?

harry: But I think this points to a greater thought. These candidates aren’t all the same. They share some form of anti-establishmentism, but sometimes that works. Sometimes it doesn’t.

The airplane thing.

clare.malone: They’re gonna kill you, Micah.

micah: ohhh

clare.malone: They’re the government coming to get you.

micah: Before we turn to measures to prevent toxic candidates …

Are the nominations of candidates like Moore, Akin, Mourdock, etc., a manifestation of a fundamental problem with the Republican Party — a split between the base and elected officials?

Like, isn’t that split real, unusual and a big problem?

I mean, it’s easy to overlook how weird it is that Moore basically ran against his party’s senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell.

McConnell’s net favorable rating in the exit polls in Alabama on Tuesday was like -245 percentage points. (It was actually -50 points.)

That’s crazy

harry: LOL.

natesilver: My favorite number from the exit poll was how McConnell was equally unpopular with Jones voters and Moore voters.

harry: Actually my favorite number is that those who had a favorable view of McConnell only barely went for Moore. That’s a Republican establishment “screw you, Moore” vote right there.

By the way, there were more Republican senators who lost primaries between 2010 and 2012 (three senators) than in the eight elections between 1994 and 2008 (two). And one of those Republicans between 1994 and 2008 was appointed.

clare.malone: A lot of this comes down to the fact that a chunk of the Republican base is simply receiving ill-conceived ideas about how realistic it is for a “pure” conservative agenda to be pushed through.

If you just watch Fox News … you’re not getting the full picture.

natesilver: That’s putting it mildly, Clare. I think the conservative media bubble is a big part of this story.

clare.malone: And the politicians in the party read the real news.

natesilver: Fox News was once sort of a bridge between the establishment and insurgent wings of the GOP. In the Trump era, it’s gone much more fully to the insurgent side.

clare.malone: It has certainly jumped the shark.

micah: Jumped the horse, if you will.

clare.malone: Wouldn’t the fox jump the hound?

natesilver: By the way, it’s relevant too that doing well among white working-class voters happens to really help you in the Electoral College, and also the Senate and the House, given how voters are distributed (and how districts are gerrymandered). So Republicans can be competitive essentially playing to 45 percent of the country, when Democrats couldn’t really be.

harry: Well, it’s not just that Fox News has become more anti-establishment. It’s also that it’s become the dominant news source.

micah: OK, to change gears: What can Republicans do about this?

natesilver: Nothing.

To a first approximation.

Or at least, nothing easy.

Not while Trump is their president.

clare.malone: Right, they can’t do jack.

This is the identity crisis that they’re going through, that they’ve been trying to paper over.

harry: Well, I think what you might want to do is play it safe. What do I mean by that? Don’t try to get your preferred candidate. Try to ensure the least desirable candidate doesn’t win the nomination. In Alabama, for example, don’t go after Brooks. In last year’s presidential election, go after Trump early.

I don’t know if that works.

natesilver: For sure, there are some cases where they could work to ensure the establishment candidate isn’t a total stiff. They did a better job of that in 2014/16 than in 2010/12, for instance.

harry: Yes, they did.

What I’m essentially saying here is that the GOP thought they could beat the clown car that was Moore because they assumed Brooks voters would join up with Strange voters in the runoff. Don’t assume anything.

micah: Wait, that’s all they can do?

What about not easy things?

What difficult things could they do?

harry: Well, they could eliminate primaries.

clare.malone: What does that mean?

That would be … radical.

micah:

natesilver: They could impeach Trump.

micah: How would that help?

natesilver: It might make things harder in the short run.

micah: That doesn’t answer my question.

natesilver: Basically all the characteristics that make for “toxic” candidates are also the characteristics that got Trump the GOP nomination.

clare.malone: They could wage a campaign against media disinformation from the Bannon/Fox corners of the universe.

Now THAT would be hard.

harry: Here’s a thought. What ultimately killed the Bush wing of the party was what was seen as a disastrous presidency. Maybe just maybe? If Trump loses in 2020, it could help out?

micah: I buy that.

clare.malone: Possibly, though don’t you think there are enough Trumpians to keep things going?

micah: See Gov. Matt Bevin in Kentucky.

clare.malone: Right.

natesilver: Republicans should be rooting for Trump to lose in 2020? #slatepitches

I think there could be a pretty big backlash to everything associated with Trump in the long run if he’s deemed to be an unsuccessful president.

There’s a pretty big backlash even to successful presidents sometimes.

micah: OK, what would happen if elected Republicans tried to correct the bad info flow, as Clare mentioned? Basically, every GOP member of Congress stops playing footsie with media outlets that skew the truth — talk radio, digital, TV. So the only stuff we hear from them is straight-dope truth. Would that help?

The goal would be to align voter expectations more with what’s possible.

clare.malone: Although, of course, there are also the powerful factions, like the House Freedom Caucus, that exist within Congress that skew the idea of what’s actually possible from the inside.

natesilver: I think you have to pick your battles more. Like, stop picking fights with the Congressional Budget Office or lying about the effects of your health care plan or tax bill.

Also, start thinking about policies that will benefit the actual GOP base, and not just the donor base.

micah: Nate, you just named the two biggest GOP priorities.

natesilver: They picked about the most unpopular ways possible to do health care and tax reform.

They could easily have had an across-the-board, Bush-style tax cut. Instead they do something convoluted where the winners and losers aren’t obvious to anyone, apart from corporations and certain types of very-high-net-worth individuals.

micah: So maybe the disconnect is really between the GOP base and the GOP donors. And elected officials are stuck in the middle.

harry: I mean, who are the donors?

micah: People who give the party

clare.malone: Oh wow, I thought it was all just powered off of ideas!?

natesilver: The super PACs, basically. The Mercers and the Adelsons. Not the well-off lawyer maxing out his individual contribution to the party.

When you’re catering policy to people making $200 million a year instead of $200,000, some things are going to change.

Meanwhile, the GOP has retreated on Bush-style “social issues.” So basically all they can offer the masses is a sense of grievance, which has become increasingly racialized.

clare.malone: That’s very true. I think the nativist notes being struck over the last year or so really created a permission structure to let a lot more of the subtle (eh, maybe not so subtle) racism of the Obama era just go bananas.

natesilver: Yeah. And the thing is, it works pretty well as an electoral strategy. Not brilliantly, by any means — Trump and the GOP are in a lot of trouble for 2018 and 2020. But the Trump version of it works a lot better than the Ted Cruz version, for instance.

harry: Well, the Trump stuff isn’t religious. And yet he wins over white evangelicals.

micah: Final thoughts?

clare.malone: Not all the anti-establishment candidates are bad!

I think Marsha Blackburn is really interesting. This is a good ad!

harry: The GOP has problems. It has problems. Those problems could potentially be solved by 2020, but it’s going to be tough to solve them by 2018.

natesilver: Just that I think the “toxic candidate problem” is endogenous (to use a fancy term) to where the GOP stands as a party, overall. You can’t eliminate the risk of toxic candidates without changing a lot of other things about Republicans.

#IFTTT #Politics – FiveThirtyEight #politics #538 #A FiveThirtyEight Chat

5 notes · View notes

6ad6ro · 7 years

Text

an explanation post and small update about that thing that recently happened with that one ex friend. just fyi, this is very long:

first, some backstory. i have an issue where i often end up staying in abusive relationships (friends/family/dating) for way too long for various reasons. that said, this friend. they were always problematic. they would continue aggressively making passes at me even tho i rejected them constantly. like really gross passes that reminded me of why i “hate (stereotypical) men”. bc it was real bro-style creeping. hitting on me incessantly. always hanging all over me and making any excuse to have physical contact. making gross innuendo “jokes” that went too far just… always. at one point they licked my ear when we were taking a photo together. etc.

now i confronted them on this many times. asked them to tone it down. explained how uncomfortable and stressed they made me. told them “i’m sorry but i just don’t feel that way and i wanna be friends” like god SO often. my sister (used to be friends w them too) even would sit and we’d try to explain to them why they needed to stop.

but of course, they’d always reply to this with extreme defensiveness. say i was just over thinking it. that this is just who they were. that they joke with ALL their friends this way (sidenote i’ve seen how squeamish they can make their other friends). that “maybe i should rethink my standards for what is okay and not okay”. would even accuse me of being paranoid and “gaslighting” them. even when it got better, they were always making little jokes like “oh srry i wanted to pat you on the back but idk if you’ll get mad at me” like they really wanted to let me know i was in the wrong. and beyond that, they always seemed to be like actively trying to find new avenues of hitting on me.

and that was just the personal space issues. they’d also like rage at games when we played together? like slamming my controller to the floor when they lost. being overly competitive. being rude to my other friends if they were “holding them back” in a game. they’d actually criticize people who didn’t agree with how they wanted to play as being “unskilled” and “not real gamers”. and if you ever were beating them, they’d be all angry and say stuff like you were being “ cheap”. any mistake they made in a game was “people cheating”. but any time they did well (including purposeful exploiting), it was a boast worthy achievement. trashtalk all day but only they were allowed to do it.

it was weird too bc TBH THEY AREN’T EVEN ALL THAT GOOD. like overall, i’d almost always beat them. my sister too. they were mediocre at best. but of course… they’d literally make statements like “i almost always beat you” and “i usually win” when it was just… such a rare occurrence. its just… when it came to trying to have a fun play session with people, they put the game and winning above… you know… having fun w the rest of us? and sidenote they were always SUPER picky about what game we played. and when it came to options like “what guns to use” or “what stage to play”… you know how often people take turns so everyone is happy? on their turn, they’d get respect. but on everyone elses turn, they’d always like… fuck around and change options back to theirs and like revert stuff and just…

not that age matters but did i mention they were 27. i mean idk i only bring it up bc they reminded me so much of a little kid like esp about videogames. but there were a lot of other issues with them too. but i’ll just bring up the last big one. they… morally/politically? they tended to be in a cool direction in general. v “supports human rights overall” kinda person. but… they were the type who were idk v quick to judge? they would make extreme judgement calls with no information. they’d always end up fixated on conspiracies rather than perceiving things with moderation. people can think what they want imo, but the issue here is how they needed anyone close to them to agree with them too?

example: one time i was driving w them in an area that had very little shops and it was late and i had forgotten to pick up a gift for someone we were meeting. just a small thing to thank them for a favor. the ONLY store open and around was walmart. yes fine walmart sucks but idk i needed a gift. i mentioned i was gonna stop by there and they were like “no not walmart”. and i’m like “yeah i know lol” and they were like “no seriously we cant go in there”. long story they refused to go in, wouldn’t wait in the car, and made it out like if i went in that there would be a big problem. i ended up showing up to the person empty handed and it sucked. another time just recently i was gonna get some lays potato chips and they were like “ew no you can’t buy anything from the cocacola company” and like shamed me and walked off so i couldn’t get them. idk this kinda stuff happens all the time tbh? but it doesn’t stop at just like pretentious annoyance. they’d go HARD with political opinions too and if you disagreed w them they’d HATE you. not just internet forums or strangers. but friends. one time my sister (who for the sake of the story is pan and leaning towards non-binary) disagreed with them when they made a sweeping statement on fb about how some specific thing made everyone “transphobic”. anyways when my sister tried to discuss it with them they literally sicked their friends on her and insulted and browbeat her until she just had to leave. she got stressed at the end and yelled back finally and then they sent her a pm like “i’m really disappointed in you. i’ll be waiting for an apology when you’re ready to give it”. lol long story short my sis dropped them at that point. as she put it “i thought highschool was over”. she was already super mad at them for how they were treating me sexually anyhow tho like... srry but i guess one of my points is my sister is like one of the coolest, nicest, best people i know. she never drops people. but she dropped THEM. over the years i’ve asked them why they go from 0 to 11 so fast and why they don’t... idk... “lead” people into agreeing with them rather than angrily and violently just immediately demanding it? and as they put it “people with strong opinions will never change so don’t bother with them” and “i act how i do as an example to others of how to be a good person”. but god i guess just recently i came to realize that they were just... i don’t think they cared about other people. they just wanted to protect THEMSELVES above all else? they wanted a reason to judge people. it was all an excuse for them to feel self-righteous and act entitled and superior. oops i forgot to mention that they’re pan and gender-neutral as well? maybe they identify as trans but idk. the only reason i mention it is bc they definitely use it as a way to shame people and feel superior. i know it’s easy to be sensitive about that stuff considering, but they go above and beyond. and it’s weird that they’re all about human rights and w/e bc GOD they’re so gross sexually and... srry another example. so they’re a furry. totally fine imo. but one day we were walking around a downtown area with a lot of bars late at night and they were wearing fox ears/tail and bein themselves nbd. but we passed by a “drunkbus” right as cookie-cutter bros spilled out of it. one of them was like “hey i didn’t know the furry convention was in town” and i immediately got super angry and turned to say something. but then i looked to see my friend had just continued to walk away? i took a breath and walked back to them and was like “i’m so sorry like do you want me to say something?” and they were like “it’s okay some day i’ll fuck them until they like it” or “until i turn them” or god idk i think they maybe even used the term “rape”... alarm bells tbh. blahh i won’t go into any more details but lets just say how they act and how they say a person SHOULD act is a dictionary definition of hypocrisy. well anyways, i guess my point i wanted to make with this backstory is, as i’ve finally come to realize... they’re an immature, self-righteous, spoiled person with a pretty distinct martyr complex. and they’re kinda rapey. they always used to complain about all this drama they had and how awful everyone was to them... and it always sounded like “really bad luck”? but i realize now that they were just a tornado of selfishness with like no emotional control and they couldn’t keep friends for too long before it just had to end in a big flaming ball. sorry like i should point out i know they’re obv full of mental illness... but i don’t think they really go to therapy or seek help for any of it? like so many of us on here are pretty messed up but we do our best? this person is not doing their best. they clearly feel the world should change before they do. anyways anyways anyways. this friendship lasted for idk 2 years? 3? it was weird that i didn’t notice my own reactions as warning signs. like when i don’t know someone too well or am having issues... i’ll often bring another friend to hangouts as a sort of buffer. maybe uncool, but it helps. usually this only lasts for like one or two hangouts. but with this ex friend, it lasted the entire period. whenever i tried to hang out w them alone, a much bigger incident would always happen, and i’d go back to square one. but okay. the actual story of the incident: so i was always trying to get them to hang out with me and another friend bc i felt like we all had v similar hobbies, and this past tuesday it finally happened. we all hung out at other friend’s place and played games and ate food and outside of exfriend’s usual little issues, it went really well. at some point it was mentioned that sonic mania released that day. it was something we had all been very excited about, but we already had plans that day and some of us (me) didn’t want to experience the game the first time in a distracted social environment. but i mentioned “ugh i have a doc appointment early tomorrow but i’ll still dl it right when i get home. i better not play it tho lol weh”! when they heard i was buying it, they were like “oh man you gotta let me come over and try it”. i knew they were a big fan of the guy who made it and a huge sonic fan, but also that they had just lost their job and money was tight (i had to buy their food that day). i had a feeling they’d morally be against pirating it temporarily until they could afford it. so idk i was like “hey listen as long as we only play like the first act each, i could take you to my place before i drive you home. but only if you’re okay with being v quick bc i have dr in the morning”. sidenote they refuse to drive and don’t use a bike so hanging out with them always involved carting them around. and no before they lost their job (v recently), they coulda def afforded it. they literally were constantly buying insanely expensive collectibles like think of the most expensive gaming stuff you can and they prob have it. sealed panzer dragoon saga. vectrex with every game. fami twin with working disc system parts. ique with most games loaded. mint physical laserdisc copy (beta?) of dragons lair from the arcade machine. whatever. my point is they spent all their money on toys instaid of bettering themselves. we all do it but they took it to an extreme. one other thing... they only would communicate over their parent’s lan line phone and over facebook. they refused to have a cellphone. back to story. they excitedly agreed to my conditions and we went back to my place and installed the game. i started playing and god it was amazing (obv)! i got to the end of act 1 in a couple of minutes and was like “okay i should rly quit and hand it to you” but they were like “no no finish the zone” and tbh it was so good i agreed. so i played until i beat the boss and then i was like “okay i can’t go further” and quit and then handed it to them. i think the whole zone took me like... 5 minutes? this is when it started getting weird. i noticed my gf had called and like idk she was a bit worried bc i normally call her after i get home from my other friend’s place (we hang every tuesday like clockwork) and it had gotten really late but i forgot to let her know. it was really sweet and i didn’t want her to worry so i was like “hey uh shoot do you mind if i call her?” and tbh they were like already so absorbed in playing the game they weren’t even paying attention to me. but i had given them the rly comfy chair but it blocked the exit to the room. i couldn’t even squeeze by unless they moved first. so i started like asking them ‘hey uh do you mind pausing and moving so i could get by?”... nothing. again i asked. ignored. this went on for like idk 30 sec? a minute? until i finally was like hovering my finger over to hit the pause button like “can you please just pause so i can leave” like... and only then did they finally say “well fine but i don’t even know how to pause”. let me take the time to point out that they are prob the most techy person i know. esp about old game systems. they build flashcarts and repair ancient consoles and solder and mod and they worked the past 4(?) years at a legit retro game store. and they were amazing to begin with. it’s a small thing, but they coulda figured out how to pause a switch. they’d played one many times before too. so finally i have them pause it. and i’m like still standing there for 30 sec or so and they still aren’t budging? and i’m like “you uhh gotta get up so i can get by the chair is blocking me”. they continue to idk ignore??? i finally have to literally pick up the chair WITH them still in it and move it aside. only then could i pass. idk but i didn’t get angry or anything bc i was just relieved to finally get by. as i walked out of the room i mentioned to them “hey if i take too long just keep playing obv but when i walk in please pause it and quit immediately so i don’t see later level content plz” (i’m a big baby and have been avoiding all details for so long and was looking forward to the surprise lol). and they were like “okay” or something. i went out to my car and talked w my gf for god idk 15 or 20 min? i didn’t want to talk that long but she was going to bed soon and was a bit down/ill and i still wanted to talk to her and idk i knew worst case my one friend would love the extra time to play. and i felt like if i stayed out that long i could go in to a very satisfied friend, you know? so i get off the phone and head inside. i enter the room and am like “okay i’m back plz pause it like we gotta go”! ignored. i ask again kinda lol trying to plug my ears and not look. ignored. at that point i notice the same song from the first zone is playing and i look over and it is in fact the same level and i’m like ??? “wait how are you still on the first level??” and they were like “oh i’m completing all of the special stages”. the first thought i had was like oh wow cool they really wanted to stick to my initial request of only playing the first zone? unnecessary but v nice of them! i guess i was really reaching for an explanation lol... so whatever they still are playing so i sit down next to them and am watching them play for another minute or so. i was about to say something bc they still weren’t stopping but then i notice how close they are to the boss and am like “oh okay cool you’re p much to the boss so you’ll be done super quick”. they keep playing. at that point i notice they’;re like... taking sonic up and around the level kinda in circles? and backtracking? like? it’s really weird and i’m like “wait what are you doing” and they’re like “trying to get rings to complete the special stages”... so i’m like “uhh sorry tbh but i’m already way past when i wanted to go to bed is there any way you can just... go to the boss”?? and they’re still doing their thing and ignoring me and so i speak up again like “cmon like i’m really sorry but this doctors appointment is an obligation and i really need to get to bed”. and at that point they pause the game. stand up angrily. kinda fling the controller so it hits the table and falls onto the hard floor. they start kinda flailing their arms angrily and say in this really sour tone “oh im sorry i just thought you were gonna idk let me PLAY the GAME”??? i start replying like “listen i’m sorry i just like i don’t have a choice in the matter like i have to go to bed like you had like 3 times as much time as i did and idk maybe you can take the switch into the car or something idk??” and they just kinda angrily say “whatever whatever just stop yelling at me”. btw i’m not yelling. i’m definitely definitely not yelling. i’m not even angry. calm. nice. confused at best? and this isn’t one of those things where it’s like “im not yelling bc when i yell you really KNOW it”... i just wasn’t yelling by anyone’s terms. at that point i’m like “listen i’m sorry i just don’t know why this is becoming such an issue like idk maybe you can wear headphones in the car and keep playing later levels or...” and that’s when they’re like “it doesn’t matter just STOP yelling at me”. and the chair is in the way of the exit and needs to be like lifted and moved so we can leave. but at that point they take their foot and just KICK the chair across the room. at that point i’m kinda like “listen i’m sorry if i have a tone in my voice or am hurting your feelings but tbh it’s kinda hard to remain perfectly calm when you’re sorta throwing a temper tantrum and..” and that’s when they shouted as loud as they could “OKAY NOPE UH UH BYEEE” and swung open the door and ran through the house to the exit door. i’m trying to call after them like “shit i’m really sorry but i don’t have time to chase after you i gotta go to bed please can i just take you home like if you leave i gotta just let you and go to bed” and they ignore me and run outside. it’s like 2am at this point btw. i kinda go outside to check if they’re standing there cooling down but no. long gone. ran down the street i think. so i go back inside. turn the light out. and lock the door. i just dont have time to deal with this. i want to but i can’t. but i sit there for a few minutes. and... (maybe) the mentally ill/abused side of me is like “well you COULD go look for them and try to calm them down and drive them home and it wouldn’t take THAT much longer than you were gonna already spend driving them, right? worst case if you don’t find them you can just go home and go to bed”. and so i head outside.as i enter my car tho, i get this weird gut awful feeling of deja vu? i realise pretty quickly that this scenario was pretty similar to the ones i had pretty regularly with my one really bad ex gf. the one who was a manipulative sociopath that used me and cheated on me and also had no emotional control etc etc etc lol? and idk i was surprised bc... i thought that this part of my life had been over. but still... the dumb side of my brain ignored that and carried on. i drove along the path i assumed they walked, thinking maybe they woulda taken the time to calm down. after a bit i finally caught up to them. i pulled up slowly and kinda called out like “hey i’m really sorry like i never wanted it to go down that way like you’re my friend like let me take you home i’m really sorry”. they ignored me for a bit and kept doing that angry car walk thing as i had to slowly follow behind and continue apologizing. finally they stopped and came to the window. they were like “listen you can’t talk to me like that and abuse me like that like what you did was so awful and bullying and ..” and went on like that for a min. and i was like “listen i’m sorry and i know me using that one word in particular must have really set you off but idk..” like trying to explain to them why i said “temper tantrum” (BC THATS WHAT THEY FUCKING HAD BTW THATS WHAT IT GD WAS) but i was trying to be nice about it? so i continued on “well i mean the reason i said that was okay like i know you were agitated but you kinda like tossed my controller haphazardly and it hit the floor and yeah i’m sure it was an accident...” and at that point they stuck their head inside the window like super close to my face and shouted as loud and angrily and full of spittle as they fucking could “WELL MAYBE IT WAS A FUCKING ACCIDENT THEN”!!!! i’m like... idk... adrenaline just dumps into my body. i’m giving this person so so so many chances tonight. being so nice. and this is a problematic friend to begin with. and they’re shouting in my face like this as i try to apologize to them so i can drive them home after they ran off. but i’m a pacifist and i try to avoid conflict. but still... i’m like, probably quietly, “you... you can’t just yell at me like that. you aren’t allowed to yell at me like that.” and they open their mouth and start shouting more. and that’s when i shout back “I WON’T LET YOU SHOUT AT ME LIKE THAT”!!! idk if it scared them or what like i know i’m pretty booming and alarming when i shout idk but regardless they yanked their head out of the window and backed away from the car and i split second checked they were clear and i just floored it. but... i quickly slammed on the breaks. took a breath. decided i didn’t want it to be like this (do you see how stupid/messed up i am). i put it in reverse and turned around to back up. but i have to slam on the breaks. thank god i was only idling at that point. bc they’re pressed RIGHT up against my back bumper. i’m trying to comprehend all this bc there’s a v big sidewalk and they were on it when i started to speed off so why are they right behind my car now? a BIG alarm bell goes off in my head but i ignore it. i stare at them as they wait pressed against my bumper for like half a minute, giving them “what are you doing” eyes and gestures. finally they come back to the window. i’m like “listen. i’m really really sorry. it’s okay if you hate me. we don’t have to talk about it or at all. i made a mistake. i’m very sorry. can i just... take you home? i feel bad. we can try and work out this stuff later if we have to”. at that point they start yelling at me again (not screaming but just normal yelling) and telling me how awful and bullying and abusive etc i am and how their reactions were justified and idek bc they started walking off again. FINALLY. FINALLLLLY. my brain accepts this situation as fairly impossible and unreasonable and i decide i gotta be done. i just... can’t? anymore?? even if i wanted to... i don’t have time? so i pull up next to them and say sternly “you know what? you can’t treat your friends like this or they will LEAVE you.” and i sped off. i think i heard them screaming after me like “YOU SHOULD TAKE YOUR OWN ADVICE” but god knows like my car is junk but i had floored it so they were long gone. okay so that’s PRETTY much the end of it. i decided pretty quickly after that that i was DONE with this person forever. that this wasn’t the kind of friendship i wanted. over the next few days i came to realize i should have been done with this person almost immediately. again, weird parallels to my worst ex. you don’t have to be dating someone or romantic w them for it to be a super abusive relationship. well anyhow i decided to avoid facebook or communicating w them for a bit so i could figure out how to like “officially end it”. because i was sure that they’d have gone on fb and written one of their common “i’m sorry i acted that way BUT” fake apologies where they pretend to be sorry but then negate the apologies by justifying all their behavior by making me out as some super abusive monster. 3 days later, i bite the bullet and check facebook, bc i realize this also is a pretty easy way for me to like... end it with them in a polite and cordial way? to pretend i don’t hate them. to talk to them in a way that hopefully keeps them from freaking out at me the next time our paths cross? also bc deep down i still do remember the good times and have a bit of respect for them. sure enough, it was there. the half-apology that leads into “you need to learn how to talk to people”. “you bullied me just like this person”. “when you talk to anyone you should use this tone”. tbh i only barely glazed over it. i started my reply along the lines of “i don’t want to get into a big discussion about what happened, but i think it would be best if we parted ways. i don’t think we’re compatible as friends. i hope we can be polite if we ever run into each other again. i’m really sorry that it turned out this way.” etc etc etc. part way in, i noticed their last short msg. sent way after the initial bunch of “sorry not sorry”s. it was just a half sentence. “i guess i should apologize for jumping in front of your car...” ... THAT FUCKING ASSHOLE. THAT BASTARD. THEY REALLY DID IT. THEY REALLY WERE TRYING TO FORCE ME TO INJURE THEM WITH MY CAR SO THEY COULD ENTRAP ME OR SUE ME OR FUCK MY LIFE UP. I THOUGHT I WAS BEING CRAZY AND PARANOID WHEN I HAD THAT THOUGHT BUT IT WAS TRUE. THAT ABSOLUTE LUNATIC. *deep breath* i’m still shaken. it was just a fluke that i didn’t step on the gas before i noticed them against my bumper. it EASILY could’ve gone down in the worst way. god. and all this over me asking them to stop playing sonic mania. tbh the experience kinda soured the game a bit for me? i mean... thank god it’s so good but really who even gives a shit bc it’s just a game like GOD fucking DAMN i can’t believe i had something so FUCKED happen at this stage in my life. i know it’s a really self-hating thing to do to blame myself for having someone like that around but... my. god. i ended up sending the fb message that i was initially planning and ignoring all the impulses to scream at them or call some authority (idek what i could do here) or tell them they need immediate help or what bc what the fuck. and i haven’t checked fb since. i wanna be done forever. i don’t ever wanna see or hear or hear about this person again. it’s a bit silly but i’m cleaning house and getting rid of all the stuff they got for me (i rejected most of their “wooing” gifts but a few still got through bc general gift exchange”. i know it’s messed up but i even washed all the clothes i was wearing w them regardless if it needed a wash or not. maybe it was symbolic. but they’re dead to me. god. it’s not just for the best it’s goddamn mandatory.

ANYWAYS so that’s it i guess. sorry i know how long this was. i don’t REALLY expect anyone to read through all this. but if you do, plz lmk so i can say thanks i guess lol? it’s just nice to get it all out there bc it kinda messed me up... really bad? idk. and oh um i’ll still reply to people individually for asking about the previous post that related to this? but it’s taking me a bit to do replies bc i’m just... kinda scared regarding social stuff rn considering. i guess the last thing i’ll say is if part of you is telling yourself that someone is abusive and you find yourself constantly making really big considerations or umm excuses just to hang out with someone? maybe don’t. there are many good people out there for you. abusive people can be dangerous. be careful and try to surround yourself with nice, happy people. <3

#personal #long #toxic

16 notes · View notes

hellotvv · 7 years

Text

5 Days

Damn, been hanging out with her 5 days straight.

Friday - woke up early at like 9 am to head over to her place, then we got ready to head to SF. Got to SF around 2 PM, tried boba guys for first time. I thought it was whatever lol. Idk the boba is chewy and good, but I think places like 7 Leaves/Almond Haus/other SoCal boba places are prob better. Afterwards, we watched The Flash together at her place and I got to put my arm around her during it haha. She played the piano for fun, since she hasn’t played in a while. Then, I think we got dinner at some place called Night Market, which is like chinese streetfood. They had a projector that shows kinda like streetfood stands and the streets idk. The food was pretty good actually~ Got a pork bun, skewers, and some chicken :) Then at night, we went to Armnhmr together. She brought along a friend named Jose, and he was pretty chill. We drank and pregamed in the car (she drove), and then went inside around 10ish. We danced for a bit, then went to the bar to order some drinks which were stupidly expensive... Like I’ve been to night clubs before with bars, but damn this one was insanely expensive. Michelle met some of her friends at the event too, while we were getting drinks. Then we went back inside and Lione was playing. He was pretty good actually! Was grinding on Michelle during the dance haha. There’s some other tiny details that went on during the event, but it’s whatever like weird white dude that got us free water. After the event, when we got back to Michelle’s car her back window broke :( it got broken into by some random person. At first, we didn’t think anything was stolen. It was kinda surprising tho, since I had my external battery there, her friend has some expensive vape, and etc. But nothing was taken?? We called the police and tried to file a report, but apparently they can’t do anything unless we have a suspect lol... In a bit, it turns out Jose’s backpack got stolen, but thankfully there wasn’t any money or anything in it. We called the police again, telling them something was stolen, and they said they might send someone. After waiting over an hour and a half in the cold, they never came. So Jose was like forget about it, let’s just go. So we ended up leaving and going back to Michelle’s place. I felt sooo fking bad for both Jose and Michelle... Like damn :( idk I hate it when bad things happen to ppl that I know. Afterwards, I uhh did not think it would be a good idea to ask if I could sleep in her bed with her LOL...

Saturday - was a much better day! It was fun. Uhh woke up, etc etc. Michelle got her uncle to pick up her car. I think we went to the bank, so she could get money for the window to get fixed. Then we met up with her friend Chelsea? If I remember her name correctly. She was really nice. We shot for fun at some place with pretty stairs and a nice view. I didn’t get very good shots tho imo, since it was too sunny when I wanted it to not be sunny, but too dark (blue hour) by the time we got down :( oh well... Stopped by target afterwards so Michelle could buy like snacks to bring back to SB, got boba, and then dropped Chelsea off. Then we got dinner at some hot pot place I think called Tasty pot or idr completely. They have a location in San Diego, I know that. Not sure if in LA or SoCal tho. She said it’s better than boiling point, but I think I like boiling point a bit more haha. Afterwards, we kinda chilled at her place. We watched American Horror stories, I kinda put my arm around her and etc during it. I think we watched during the day actually and she played the guitar a bit, while we sang some old throwback songs. Uhh, but yeah, I remember looking through each other tumblrs a bit for fun to see what we reblogged at the start of tumblr days. Thankfully, she didn’t look too much at my tumblr, otherwise she’d see sad boi or too lovey dovey posts at certain points in time lolol. Idk, not trying to seem soft here. But yeah, at night just went to sleep, she was up late tho cleaning and packing stuff.

Sunday - hmhm, we went to get breakfast at some yummy breakfast place. It’s like a crepe place, but they have other stuff and savory crepes. The area was really nice actually and had a bunch of good food places that I’d love to try :O We also took pictures around for fun. Then it was time to head back to her place, she packed up, and then we picked up 2 ride share ppl to go back to SB. One was cool, she apparently knew my friend Jessica! She also listens to a shit ton of hip hop and likes Logic like me. So I had a nice convo with her. Then afterwards, it got kinda silent, and I just talked to Michelle. Went on some uhh certain topics like making out and etc. We picked up Chloe somewhat towards the end of the ride, since we were passing by SLO and she was there! Did some Escape planning as well. Not too sure as of rn, if we’re 100% going together. But if we do the plan would be to go to escape together, she can stay at my place, pumpkin patch + oc adventure together, and I’d show her a bunch of cool food places that she’s never tried. After dropping me off, she sent me a text wondering if I had fun at SF and sorry that she couldn’t show me around more, since she was too stressed from her window being smashed. Then she asked to watch The Flash together on like Friday or something, but I’m unfortunately busy Friday :(( going home for weekend.

Monday - somewhat fun day. Bryan bailed on our dinner plans. So I invited Michelle to the dinner plans with Brent, Henry, Kristy, Jessica, and me at Lama Dog. It was fun, she met my friends Brent and Henry for the first time. She thinks they’re funny. I like to hype up my friends to each other before they meet, so I told Brent about Michelle before he met her, so he think she’s cool. Then they kinda got along when they did talk haha. We all got drinks at Lama Dog, except Michelle since she had to study later. But I shared with her some of my drink, which was kinda ehhh. Food was good tho~ Pork belly quesadilla was bomb!! Afterwards, we planned to play drinking games at my place, but had to drop off Michelle. After we got to my place, I snapped the drinks and etc, she’s liike tfti. I’m like lmao we invited u, come through. Then she ended up driving to my apartment and actually coming through + playing the drinking game while kinda studying haha. It was fun, the uh drinking card game let us know more about each other, she got to know more about my friends from it, and yee. There were a couple cards that kinda got some flirting going on. I put my arm around her and she was chill with it. She gave me the most likely to have sex in public card lol... I couldn’t deny that I have done so, and she was a curious girl on wheree and etc haha. Also I changed my name on her contacts to add a heart, and she changed her contacts to add emojis too to make it fair. I offered to drive her the next day, since she brought a diff car to SB and it doesn’t have her parking permit. So I ended up waking up early in the morning just for her, to pick her up, and drop her off at school/walk her to class. I mean, I had class at the same time, but I had to wake up extra early to quickly shower to not look super bad + change + pick her up and etc haha. But yeah, that was Tuesday morning. Afterwards, I don’t think anything else happened.

Wednesday - she canceled on our plans on Thursday rip, prob from frat stuff. Unfortunately, won’t be able to hang out with her for the rest of the week, since I’m going home. I wonder if she’ll miss me ;o Regardless, I’m gonna have a great time going home. Gonna go to an EP launch event in LA on Friday with Jenn, gonna drink with her too! Then gonna go to a photography event on Saturday that’ll have my ex-Kristy, Jenn + Cat, this photographer friend from SD, and maybe I’ll make new friends too at the meetup! I don’t think I’ll get very good pics from the meetup tho, since the location is too green lol... I hate green in photos. Then after the meetup, my cousin Khoa is turning 21. So I’ll be at his birthday party and hopefully it’ll be littyyy. :] Then on Sunday, maybe I’ll be able to hang out with my friend Erika. But fk, I have to get back to SB at a reasonable time, since I have a midterm for my math class on Monday lol... Anyways, those are my current weekend plans

0 notes

ramle17-18 · 7 years

Text

10/7/17

ok so i missed like 2 weeks of journaling cool cool cool cool cool

i’ll try to see if i remember what happened lmfao

so the sunday after rosh hashana - we had an enrichment activity that was really just nurit talking to us in the english center and eventually us discussing our expectations of her, ourselves, and each other. wow this feels like it was so long ago lmao but she said something that really bothered me. she was talking about the different ways she interacts with all of us or whatever and she basically looked at me and was like “jami, i feel like i don’t know anything about you, you’re so reserved and closed off” or something and it made me feel really fucking awful for a couple days lmfao. she even said like “i want you to talk to me, i don’t even know if this is something you would’ve preferred i talk about with you privately” which...no shit? why would this be a conversation i would want to have in front of everyone lol?

i later brought it up kind of passive-aggressively while talking to matt and marleigh and it just turned into a whole slew of ignorant pop psychoanalysis and “well if you know it’s irrational to be upset about it then don’t be upset about it” which just left me feeling infinitely shittier.

we also pulled names from a hat to make rosh hashana cards for one another and sultana and i pulled each other, i wrote something really long and gay and dumb but she made me a cute apple-shaped card and wrote some really sweet stuff

monday - we had our last pedagogical training. it was useless as usual until miriam’s guest came in, who i think is an actual professional pedagogical instructor, and she gave us some awesome (and organized) insight and ideas/materials.

tuesday - thursday we had our final observation days. personally i think 3 was too many, especially because we had already spent several days at the school, but whatever. i don’t really know if i gained a whole lot from those days.

wednesday night we went to jaffo to eat shakshuka at this place marleigh and matt are obsessed with (called dr. shakshuka - it was good, but imo not obsess-worthy) and then we went to an outdoor showing of the breakfast club, where i drank like a quarter of a bottle of wine and was sufficiently tipsy enough for everyone to think i was hilarious

thursday night we had the mixer dinner/activity with the latinx community of ramla, but (aside from rachel) we mostly ended up talking amongst ourselves and we left sort of early. sultana and i were gonna watch a movie, but then i decided i wanted wine so we went and got 2 bottles, and all of us except marleigh (who was in a bad mood and was in her room) ended up playing never have i ever, truth, and then arguing politics until 1am. it was a fun night

friday was erev yom kippur, so as far as i remember i didn’t do anything

saturday was yom kippur, and i fasted. during the evening we went and met nurit to go to a synagogue and listen to the shofar, and i really really disliked it. it was the first time i’ve seen women and men separated for tfilot, and like...it would’ve been one thing if it had been men and women in the same room with a rope separating them or something, but instead all the women (and screaming children) were shunted off to a little side room with very little room, not enough chairs, not enough siddurim, and a very obscured view of what was happening in the main room. we could barely hear, too. and yet when the shofar was blown several women were still crying. it was astonishing to me that they were still able to connect enough to be so emotional when it felt like they were given the absolute bare minimum to work with

sunday - i FINALLY got to see jerusalem!! it was beautiful. i loved it. so much. first we went to this church where jesus was crucified and buried and then resurrected, which was actually really cool. just the idea of people who lived thousands of years ago standing where i was standing, touching what i touched, was so novel and impactful to me. at home when i get that feeling it’s because someone 300 years ago was touching it, now it’s 3000 years. it absolutely blows my mind.

then we went to the kotel!!! i did end up tearing up a little bit. i prayed for a few minutes and also stuck a note in the wall, it was pretty spiritual. it was also smaller than i thought it would be for some reason.

after that we went to the city of david, which was cool. we walked up and down a lot of stairs and then went through this ancient aqueduct thing, which freaked a couple of claustrophobic people out but didn’t bother me.

after the tours we had about an hour and a half of time to explore the shuk in jerusalem, so we got these awesome malawha (?) sandwiches sultana knew about and then ended up at a bar. the bartender was a 19 year old blonde girl and she was literally one of the most beautiful girls i’ve ever seen in my life. we ended up sitting with a couple of bat yam people, and gabe was flirting with everyone and even flirted with me a little bit which somehow resulted in some stupid and ugly infatuation for a few days (which i am now over).

we were late to the bus and ended up getting yelled at lmao

i don’t even remember what we did that evening after getting back.

monday - more talking about stuff with nurit in the english center, then we went to her other sister’s house with her sister and nieces and nephew to help build a sukkah. it was an ok time, matt and i got kind of snippy with each other at some point and i think i ended up feeling kind of shitty.

tuesday - the last good day! lmao

sultana and marleigh invited me to the beach and then to see ‘it.’ i originally said no but then changed my mind, so we went and spent a few hours at the beach. sultana invited sydney and “jokingly” told her to bring gabe, and it bothered me just because i wish she would ask before inviting people lol. i already hadn’t wanted to go and decided to go, and i just think the considerate thing to do would’ve been to ask marleigh and i if we were okay with it, rather than waiting until afterward to tell us.

after the beach sultana ditched us to go find sydney, who didn’t wanna see the movie, so marleigh and i went by ourselves. it was AMAZING. didn’t scare me, but i really enjoyed it. i thought overall it was just a really well-made film.

when we got out of the theater sultana, sydney, and rebecca were sitting at a table right in front of the cinema talking to gregg lmao. he had just happened to be there and we talked to him for a few minutes, and he directed us to a good burger place.

on our way to get burgers we ran into harry and sarah, which was really funny. and then finally got to the burger place. the burgers were good, but i only ate half because it was so much food. i was sitting across from rebecca and, as far as i can tell, my suspicions that she doesn’t like me were only confirmed.

overall it was a good day. and then...

wednesday - i woke up feeling like complete and utter shit! i think i have the flu or the stomach flu or something, and i’m still getting over it. literally i’ve spent the past 3 days in bed doing nothing. it’s been so boring and i feel like shit. last night i was feeling well enough to eat and made the mistake of eating the other half of my burger, which was a bad move. i still feel nauseous.

i’m sitting in the living room right now but i genuinely think i might go lay down in my room again. also, rachel is in malta, madeleine is in china visiting dan’s family, sultana is in paris, and marleigh left yesterday for jerusalem, so it’s just me and matt in the house which is kind of weird.

0 notes

theliberaltony · 7 years

Link

via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.

micah (Micah Cohen, politics editor): Our topic for today: PANIC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Namely, is it time for Republicans to panic (in the wake of Tuesday’s Democratic sweep)? And, as a subsidiary question, what should Republicans do now?

But let’s start with that first question … panic or no panic? You decide!

harry (Harry Enten, senior political writer): What’s the definition of panic?

micah:

harry: LOL.

perry (Perry Bacon Jr., senior writer): Panic. Losing control of the House would be huge. And it’s very much on the table.

clare.malone (Clare Malone, senior political writer): Well, some House Republicans from Virginia are retiring after the state election, so they might well be panicking.

It's my honor to represent #VA06. I cannot begin to express how blessed I am to have had the opportunity to serve. Now is the right time to step aside – I will not seek re-election. My statement: https://t.co/tByoe5vFmO

— Bob Goodlatte (@RepGoodlatte) November 9, 2017

natesilver (Nate Silver, editor in chief): They should be moderately panicked. And they should have been before Tuesday. They might still be able to save the House, though.

harry: Yeah, Tuesday was simply a manifestation of what has been apparent in the national polls for a while. Heck, it’s also been apparent in the special-election results. I just don’t think people believed it before seeing it on a big stage like on Tuesday night. Make no mistake, this was in line with the fundamentals, and those are not good for Republicans. Bad enough to lose the House? We’ll see. The Democrats are certainly in position.

natesilver: “We’ll see.”

Give me a prediction!

micah: “We’ll see” doesn’t sound that panic-inducing.

clare.malone: I’m still not sure the Republicans are going to lose the House. That’s still a pretty big lift for Democrats. Tuesday’s results were a good sign for them, for sure. But it’s still a long haul.

micah: Yeah, so a Democrat won in New Jersey. A Democrat won in Virginia. Democrats won a bunch of districts in the Virginia House of Delegates that mostly leaned Democratic. What’s the big deal?

clare.malone: ha ha ha

micah: I mean, I’m only half trolling.

natesilver: It’s not a particularly big deal. It’s just confirmation of lots of evidence we already had that the political climate is good for Democrats.

It’s about what you’d expect when they’re up 8 to 10 points on the generic ballot. But the special elections earlier in the year were also about what you’d expect given those numbers.

(And given that the specials were held in very red districts.)

micah: But then why didn’t Democrats win more red districts in Virginia?

natesilver: They won the governorship by 9 points and flipped the House of Delegates from 2-1 GOP to roughly 50-50. They had a really good night.

micah: I’m not debating that.

natesilver: The focus on red districts is kinda dumb, IMO, because if you look at the totality of elections so far this year, Democrats have done well in some really red areas — Kansas and Montana and South Carolina — that aren’t upscale or suburban at all.

micah: Are you calling me dumb?

harry: Yes.

LOL.

natesilver: I’m saying that analysts in general are chewing too much on not-especially-informative pieces of evidence.

The totality of evidence is good for Democrats. The individual data points aren’t that meaningful.

micah: So we don’t buy the thesis that “state/districts/etc. are snapping back to their default partisanship” — it explains Tuesday’s results but not all those special-election results.

natesilver: Yeah, it explains Virginia well, but there have been a lot of elections this year.

perry: Well, whether Democrats have a 70, 50 or 30 percent chance of winning the House, even 30 (which I think is a low estimate) is a really big panic number for Republicans. Barack Obama’s presidency, in terms of legislation, basically ended the day Republicans won the House in 2010. And Obama didn’t have a special prosecutor after him, with the potential of an impeachment in the House.

natesilver: I disagree that 30 is a big number, Perry. I mean, the majority always has some risk of being lost in the House, since every seat is up every two years. If the chances of losing the House were only 30 percent, I’d be pretty happy if I were Paul Ryan.

The problem for the GOP is that it’s not 30 percent. You could debate between 50 and 70.

perry: I don’t think in, say, 2014 that the Republicans had any real chance of losing the House. It would have been like 10 percent.

natesilver: I guess I should say — the majority party is always at risk if they also control the presidency.

Typically, parties do not control both the House and the presidency for very long.

So if I knew nothing about the political landscape other than that the same party controlled both the presidency and the House, my default might be that the party had like a 30 percent chance of losing the House at the next midterm.

harry: What we’re fighting against here is that people almost always view things through the prism of the last election. Yes, Nathaniel, the political science says what you say, but people get caught in this mindset that this will be the time the science is wrong. (Sometimes it is wrong.) But usually what happens is you end up looking foolish by trying to guess the direction of the polling error.

micah: So, do the contours of Ralph Northam’s win in Virginia matter in judging how panicked the GOP should be?

Like, where did he do well and with whom?

clare.malone: They’ve lost some of the suburban white voters who voted for Trump, right? Which should worry them a bit.

natesilver: Yeah, I think all that shit is overrated.

micah: Wait, Nate, you wrote the other day that there are enough well-educated, relatively well-off suburban districts for Democrats to retake the House.

natesilver: There are enough suburban districts, yeah. So it happens to be true that doing well in the suburbs is more helpful for winning back the House than for winning back the presidency. That isn’t immaterial.

harry: It hurts me when people use bad language.

clare.malone: How much evidence is there, though, that Democrats made inroads with ye olde working class whites?

micah: Right.

clare.malone: Let’s hear it for George W. Bush’s Security/Soccer Moms.

perry: Did we agree with this piece by Nate Cohn of The New York Times that argued that the Democrats still have some problems with white working-class voters that could limit their pickup opportunities next year?

natesilver: I disagree with trying to extract too many signals from Virginia as opposed to the totality of all elections in the past several months.

But Democrats had a pretty “meh” performance earlier this year in Georgia’s 6th Congressional District, which is very suburban and wealthy. Whereas what they did in Montana and Kansas and South Carolina is pretty impressive. Here’s a chart from earlier this week (before we had the Tuesday results):

clare.malone: Yeah, but wait, Nate — wasn’t the whole thing that they vastly outperformed there, even while losing?

natesilver: They outperformed more in Montana, Kansas and South Carolina than in Georgia.

I mean, it depends on what benchmark you look at. But the Georgia 6 result was probably the least impressive of any of them.

harry: To quote myself, “To understand the national political environment, it’s always better to look at an average of elections.”

clare.malone: Very Churchillian.

perry: Lol.

natesilver: At least Georgia was a federal race, though! State and local races can give you a sense of the overall political environment. But you should be very careful about getting too cute beyond that. The issues that are pertinent in voting for someone for the Virginia House of Delegates are not the same ones that are pertinent when you’re voting for the U.S. Congress.

micah: I guess, here’s why I would push back on your “overrated” take, Nate. It seems clear that winning back the House will be harder for Democrats than winning the Virginia House of Delegates. (Actually, is that true?) If that is true — or even if it it’s the same — it seems valuable to know the political/demographic/socio-economic makeup of potential pickups for Democrats in the House. What does that sample of seats look like? Isn’t that important given how polarized we are along rural-urban lines? Along racial lines? Etc.?

harry: Oh, I’m not sure that’s true at all.

natesilver: I’m telling you that extrapolating from the Virginia House of Delegates to the U.S. House is dumb.

Also, I don’t agree that winning the U.S. House is necessarily harder. The Virginia House of Delegates is way more gerrymandered than the U.S. House, even though the U.S. House is pretty gerrymandered.

perry: So I would say Panic 8 on a scale of 1 to 10. It sounds like others would rate the Republican panic levels lower?

micah: I’d say 6.8.

harry: I panic over the Buffalo Bills and Columbia Lions. I don’t panic over politics.

natesilver: I’m a 7.8 or something. Not far from Perry.

micah: We’re not interested in how panicked you are, Harry. We’re asking how panicked Republicans should be.

natesilver: But if I’m a 7.8 today, I was a 7.5 on Monday.

clare.malone: I hate how we have to apply numbers to everything.

It’s a 6.

harry: I’ll say 8 is fine.

micah: OK, so now let’s talk: What should Republicans do?!?!?!?

clare.malone: I’m wondering what candidates need to do out in the field. For example, did Ed Gillespie do something weird in not “reading the room” in Virginia — should he have been playing more to those suburban voters?

micah: Gillespie, former head of the Republican National Committee, tried to adopt some Trumpian trappings.

In general, should Republicans just hug Trump close knowing they’re tied to him anyway?

Or should they distance themselves from him?

harry: Why the heck would you embrace a president whose approval rating is in the 30s?

clare.malone: Is it a state-by-state thing — i.e., some states are “Trumpy” and some are not?

natesilver: But what if Republicans not embracing Trump makes his approval rating even lower?

micah: And also you get dinged for having an R next to your name anyway?

Does distancing ever work?

natesilver: Maybe that’s why so many members are retiring. They’re sort of screwed either way.

harry: I guess it depends on whether you’ve cultivated an image of your own brand. In waves, oftentimes it doesn’t work.

I was somewhat surprised Gillespie didn’t try that given he had run before statewide. But he probably had polling that his campaign thought showed they should run hardline on immigration.

perry: Distancing can work. Rob Portman and John McCain ran ahead of Trump in 2016.

micah: But Gillespie’s hardline immigration rhetoric didn’t lead to a rural surge like it did for Trump, right?

natesilver: I think you could say it was more high turnout in blue areas than low turnout in red areas.

clare.malone: Maybe voters found that stuff inauthentic coming from Gillespie? If you were a hardcore Trump voter, you sensed that Gillespie was not your guy. That he stank of the establishment, the past.

harry: I thought it was inauthentic.

micah: Yeah. That’s a good point. It’s possible a lot of Republicans will take away from Virginia that the Trumpian immigration stuff hurts more than it helps, but maybe that was just the messenger.

perry: I do think that sanctuary cities is an issue where Democrats are a bit confused. And maybe Republicans should hit that issue, even if other things Gillespie did will not work.

clare.malone: Yeah, interesting point

natesilver: We did have that interesting test of Trumpian personality versus Trump’s endorsement in Alabama, too.

perry: This is a hard question. If I were running against Sen. Bob Casey in Pennsylvania, I would run on the Trump immigration/populism issues. If I’m Barbara Comstock, in a Virginia district just outside of D.C., I would distance.

natesilver: By the way, the fact that Democrats are running somewhat competitively in Alabama, depending on what poll you believe — even before allegations surfaced that GOP nominee Roy Moore initiated sexual encounters with underage girls — is another reason not to take the “this is only happening in blue areas” talking point all that seriously.

micah: That’s why my panic number wasn’t that high — if Democrats win Alabama, then we’ll see real panic!

clare.malone: Yeah, that race — could be a December to remember, people!

harry: I mean, even the worst public polls have Doug Jones down only 11 percentage points. It’ll be interesting to see what occurs there.

micah: Panic-ember

perry: Roy Moore is uniquely something that I think most Republican candidates are not.

micah: Very uniquely something.

clare.malone: Even before The Washington Post report on Thursday, Moore had a lot of baggage in Alabama — enough that I think a lot more moderate Republicans there would not be enthused to cast a ballot for him.

micah: OK, before we turn to policy, it seems like one of our takeaways from Virginia is that voters aren’t stupid — you can’t distance yourself from Trump if you’re really Trumpy, and you can’t run an anti-establishment campaign if you used to run the RNC.

perry: That wasn’t my takeaway. I don’t think Corey Stewart would have won either. He might have lost by more. I don’t think a Trumpy person will win statewide in Virginia.

natesilver: Trump ran, quite successfully, as a populist, even though he’s a rich real estate developer from New York City. So authenticity is always somewhat in the eye of the beholder.

But yeah — Politics 101 if you’re Gillespie is that you want to localize that race, and Northam’s the one who should have tried to nationalize it.

clare.malone: Hey, Harry, what’s that new poll that has Democrat Kyrsten Sinema up by a healthy margin in Arizona’s Senate race against Trumpy Republican Kelli Ward?

harry: Here it is, Clare.

clare.malone: I think the Trumpy thing doesn’t always work outside the primaries for … non-Trumps?

perry: I think Gillespie was trying to do something that I think is smart: Try to hit the Trumpy Republicans with one message, the more white-collar ones with another. Gillespie’s speeches and campaign appearances were not Trumpy. His ads were. He was campaigning with Susana Martinez and Marco Rubio a few days before the election. I actually think increased Trumpiness without full-Trump is probably where most GOP candidates land in 2018.

micah: Interesting …

clare.malone: Not to be very American, but … doesn’t TV often matter more, at least in state races? Not everyone’s going to be seeing you in person.

perry: Of course.

But I’m just saying that Ed was not going around saying “build the wall” in his speeches.

clare.malone: Yeah, fair.

I just think even in the D.C. ‘burbs, those ads hurt him.

perry: I agree.

micah: OK …

Last thing: Policy.

Should Republicans stay full-steam ahead on taxes?

What should they do? Go more bipartisan?

natesilver: I don’t think they should go full-steam on their tax bill, no. Because it’s a fairly toxic bill, politically.

A Bush-style tax cut would have been much smarter politically.

perry: They should write a tax plan that Sen. Joe Manchin, Sen. Joe Donnelly and maybe eight to 10 other Democrats can vote for. A bill with 60 Senate votes would be huge.

harry: I like Perry’s thinking.

perry: So I’m saying what Nate said. The Bush tax cuts got some Democratic votes because they were not written in this way that was bound to draw heavy Democratic opposition.

I have been shocked by how many people’s taxes would increase in a REPUBLICAN tax plan.

harry: How many times have they rewritten that tax plan in the past couple of weeks?

clare.malone: But … how likely are Republicans to make that play for Democratic support?

perry: 0 percent.

harry: As Nate said, this stuff is really unpopular. It’s not good for Republicans.

natesilver: Some people’s taxes would increase — most people’s wouldn’t — but moreover, the benefits of the bill aren’t obvious to taxpayers. Maybe you come out ahead, and maybe you don’t, but you have to do the math to find out how — and a lot of popular deductions are removed, all in the name of lowering corporate taxes.

perry: The realistic path for Republicans is to pass this tax bill somewhat quickly. Don’t spend till March debating it. Get this done. It will not be very popular. But cast this as a sign that you are getting things done. Then, get more things done. Find bills that can pass. You tried on Obamacare. You did taxes. Now, find issues where you can pass a bill and it benefits you electorally. Infrastructure. Dreamers?

I think a bug in my plan is I’m struggling to think of issues that have popular support and on which Republicans agree internally.

micah: I guess I don’t really get why it seems like both 1. Republicans are very likely on track to lose a bunch of seats and maybe the House majority, and 2. Republicans are very unlikely to change anything they’re doing policy-wise.

clare.malone: I mean, Republicans are doing this tax bill thing so they can get money from donors — so that they can even run their races in the first place.

natesilver: Well, they failed to do anything on health care — for a lot of reasons — but you can argue that reflects a responsiveness toward public opinion.

micah:

Lindsey Graham says “the financial contributions will stop” if tax reform fails.

— Alan Rappeport (@arappeport) November 9, 2017

perry: Saying this out loud is not smart.

harry: What a performance.

natesilver: On taxes, the donor base likes the bill, but I don’t know that the voter base has any particular reason to.

micah: Final thoughts?

perry: Final thought: The Republicans should have been worried about 2018 before Tuesday, and Tuesday should make them even more worried.

But I actually don’t know how realistic it is to expect them to change course. Trump is going to Trump. They have a voter base that likes Trumpism. They have members in Congress and a donor base that likes unpopular policies. And they are internally divided on politics and policy, making it hard to shift course.

harry: Republicans have got to figure out something because what they’re doing right now isn’t working. Even if they don’t lose the House, their majority will probably be greatly diminished. That, of course, will only make it more difficult to pass legislation.

natesilver: I think the most important decisions that Republicans made already happened: The approach they took to health care, the approach they’re taking toward taxes, their failure to do anything on infrastructure, etc.

I’m not saying the cake is necessarily baked — there’s a lot of uncertainty, and there are going to be new things to react to all the time, since the president is Donald Trump. But I don’t think there’s any magic plan to avoid a Democratic wave. It may be out of their control. They just have to hope Trump matures a bit in his second year in office, the economy stays pretty good, Democrats give them an opening or two, etc.

But they’re running into the wind, as parties almost are when they’re trying to defend Congress and their president is unpopular.

#IFTTT #Politics – FiveThirtyEight #politics #538 #A FiveThirtyEight Chat

2 notes · View notes