#also hurricanes are predicted to be that this year so

[arctic-hands]

I need a NOAA radio

[theaologies]

spinning my chair around and sitting in it backwards: GOOOOOD MORNING CLASS

FIRST AND FOREMOST: this is not a panic post. It’s an informational preparedness post. Don’t panic. Just be prepared for this like you’d be prepared for an earthquake but you know it’s coming and it’s wet.

I’m 30, lived in Central Florida for the first 26 years of my life, and have experienced more hurricanes and tropical storms than you can imagine. Never in my life did I think I would have to discuss HURRICANE SAFETY again after moving to LOS ANGELES from FLORIDA and yet HERE WE ARE-

(This information is accurate as of 8/17 at 9am PST)

SO models are still early but it seems like as of last night, Pacific Hurricane Hilary is rapidly intensified AND has shifted its track pretty severely inland. Originally SoCal was predicted to get some bands off the coast but this does NOT seem to be the case anymore

As our good friend Jim Cantore mentioned above, if Hilary DOES make landfall in SoCal, it will be the first tropical storm to do so since 1939. Fucking yikes.

THE GOOD NEWS:

It isn’t looking like Hilary will make landfall anywhere as a strong hurricane. If it makes landfall in central Baja it looks like it’ll be a Cat 2 which isn’t great but still- better than the Cat 5 it’s currently strengthening to.

As for SoCal, we’re not predicted to get anything over a Tropical Storm. And mountains tear up tropical cyclones like crazy. It’ll (probably) be weak and, wind wise, no worse than the Santa Ana’s

THE BAD NEWS:

Our Cone of Uncertainty is currently pretty wide- this fluctuation matters as it determines which side of the storm hits us. Is this significant? Yes. The right side of a Hurricane is considered the “dirty” side- it’s the side that is most likely to produce severe weather, such as severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. It’s still too early to determine what side will affect us the most but it’s something to keep in mind.

Also, I can’t speak for the rest of SoCal, but I would not bet on the LA infrastructure doing well even with a weak tropical storm. Which is why I have brought you here today, to run down the IMPORTANT HURRICANE CHECKLIST

NOTE: I made this several years ago for FLORIDA so not all of it will be accurate to SoCal. Most of us live in apartments and have no say over tree trimmings and the likes. If the storm is feeling like it’s going to get bad, I would recommend moving important things and electronics away from windows and hanging out in areas of the apartment that have the least amount of windows. I don’t think boarding up windows or anything will be necessary but here’s information if you need/want it

ANOTHER NOTE: if you have the means, please check up on your unhoused neighbors and immediate community groups that do so, as well. As always, they will be the ones most affected by severe weather. Tarps, anything that rises up off the ground, waterproof bags, etc would be good to grab for them. I am not an expert here and would recommend following the lead of your community groups that work with your unhoused neighbors to find out what will be needed most.

I don’t at all think we’ll see any shutdowns so if the rain does get bad be prepared for dangerous driving conditions. I know it’s dangerous to drive any time it rains in LA but, you know. The Weather Channel isn’t predicting a TON of rain at the moment (for LA) but, just like our winter/spring this year, be on the look out for flash floods.

And again, this is all JUST IN CASE. It’s better to be prepared than not. SoCal’s infrastructure is not at all prepared to handle a tropical event so who knows! Anything is possible. If I was in Florida I wouldn’t at all be worrying about this but I’m not anymore and our wet winter absolutely fucked our roads in LA so I’d rather everyone be safe than sorry.

I’m sure it’ll all be fine and now you just have more safety information, which is never bad! Because frankly climate change is very real and I would not be surprised to see this happening more and more in the coming years. And it does have me worrying that El Niño this year is going to be worse than we imagined.

[tapwater118]

tpot 13 spoilers, i say a lot here

hopy mopy that was a good episode. love it when tpot decides to get all cinematic. lots of things to talk about

having the cold open and stinger be about firey and leafy is very very interesting (“dreamier island” is adorable idgaf). didn’t really expect them to build off their cameo from tpot 8 like this, they’re obviously setting up another side plot (likely to replace the robot flower one that just ended). i don’t think leafy died in the storm, that’d be too straightforward for that much screen time. i think one got her, for what i don’t know. what kind of deal would she take?? i must think about this more

also speaking of one what the fuck. she moved a whole goddamn hurricane over to the hotel??? she can do that?? ok so maybe she didn’t make deals with bomby and bell, she’s just stealing the eliminated contestants for some reason. AND SHE WANTS TWO GONE DUDE. scary. probably the biggest surprise was her making it so two exitors join instead of one, which reads to me as if she wanted pencil specifically to join for some reason. interesting interesting interesting

can i just say there are some super interesting freesmart interactions here. pencil’s overjoyed to see book and ice cube (cause she’s been trapped in four for four years) but those two looked EXTREMELY uncomfortable to see her. most interesting is how despite still being avoidant of book ICE CUBE DELIBERATELY GETS HER AWAY FROM PENCIL. SHES WILLING TO PUT HER GRIEVANCES WITH BOOK ASIDE TO PROTECT HER LIKE THAT. what the fuck happened between them. idfb i need you to happen please

i didn’t really have any predictions for the eliminations this time around, barf bag i somewhat expected but needle was a bit of a surprise. i thought tpot 12 would’ve made people like her more? oh well. kinda hoped for more gb and pencil interactions from her being on cloudyay but i guess we’ll have more time for those later. liy being on 🎼 is nice cause she has her old friends there, works as a nice fill in for needle’s niche

the old robot flower is back! by the deal with one uh oh. i actually really like how they handled this, everyone else is happy the old her is back but she sounded really hesitant about it because she still has the same issues from before!!! nothings been fixed for her!!! she still has that want to be like flower dude. that plot line better not be completely dead or else. (also thank you tv for the flower cameo ur great. also tv is talking in mashed up clips again letsgooooooooo)

i think i actually need to watch this episode again, there’s so many little details sprinkles everywhere omga. anyway i voted for pin and book and you should too. peace out

look at her she angy

[nasa]

Why Isn’t Every Year the Warmest Year on Record?

This just in: 2022 effectively tied for the fifth warmest year since 1880, when our record starts. Here at NASA, we work with our partners at NOAA to track temperatures across Earth’s entire surface, to keep a global record of how our planet is changing.

Overall, Earth is getting hotter.

The warming comes directly from human activities – specifically, the release of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels. We started burning fossil fuels in earnest during the Industrial Revolution. Activities like driving cars and operating factories continue to release greenhouse gases into our atmosphere, where they trap heat in the atmosphere.

So…if we’re causing Earth to warm, why isn’t every year the hottest year on record?

As 2022 shows, the current global warming isn’t uniform. Every single year isn’t necessarily warmer than every previous year, but it is generally warmer than most of the preceding years. There’s a warming trend.

Earth is a really complex system, with various climate patterns, solar activity, and events like volcanic eruptions that can tip things slightly warmer or cooler.

Climate Patterns

While 2021 and 2022 continued a global trend of warming, they were both a little cooler than 2020, largely because of a natural phenomenon known as La Niña.

La Niña is one third of a climate phenomenon called El Niño Southern Oscillation, also known as ENSO, which can have significant effects around the globe. During La Niña years, ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean cool off slightly. La Niña’s twin, El Niño brings warmer temperatures to the central and eastern Pacific. Neutral years bring ocean temperatures in the region closer to the average.

El Niño and La Niña affect more than ocean temperatures – they can bring changes to rainfall patterns, hurricane frequency, and global average temperature.

We’ve been in a La Niña mode the last three, which has slightly cooled global temperatures. That’s one big reason 2021 and 2022 were cooler than 2020 – which was an El Niño year.

Overall warming is still happening. Current El Niño years are warmer than previous El Niño years, and the same goes for La Niña years. In fact, enough overall warming has occurred that most current La Niña years are warmer than most previous El Niño years. This year was the warmest La Niña year on record.

Solar Activity

Our Sun cycles through periods of more and less activity, on a schedule of about every 11 years. Here on Earth, we might receive slightly less energy — heat — from the Sun during quieter periods and slightly more during active periods.

At NASA, we work with NOAA to track the solar cycle. We kicked off a new one – Solar Cycle 25 – after solar minimum in December 2019. Since then, solar activity has been slightly ramping up.

Because we closely track solar activity, we know that over the past several decades, solar activity hasn't been on the rise, while greenhouse gases have. More importantly, the "fingerprints" we see on the climate, including temperature changes in the upper atmosphere, don't fit the what we'd expect from solar-caused warming. Rather they look like what we expect from increased greenhouse warming, verifying a prediction made decades ago by NASA.

Volcanic Eruptions

Throughout history, volcanoes have driven major shifts in Earth’s climate. Large eruptions can release water vapor — a greenhouse gas like carbon dioxide — which traps additional warmth within our atmosphere.

On the flip side, eruptions that loft lots of ash and soot into the atmosphere can temporarily cool the climate slightly, by reflecting some sunlight back into space.

Like solar activity, we can monitor volcanic eruptions and tease out their effect on variations in our global temperature.

At the End of the Day, It’s Us

Our satellites, airborne missions, and measurements from the ground give us a comprehensive picture of what’s happening on Earth every day. We also have computer models that can skillfully recreate Earth’s climate.

By combining the two, we can see what would happen to global temperature if all the changes were caused by natural forces, like volcanic eruptions or ENSO. By looking at the fingerprints each of these climate drivers leave in our models, it’s perfectly clear: The current global warming we’re experiencing is caused by humans.

For more information about climate change, visit climate.nasa.gov.

Make sure to follow us on Tumblr for your regular dose of space!

[dadvans]

reasons u should watch 9-1-1

feast for the whump girlies in the shape of one evan buckley, who simply wants to be loved and inexplicably isn't

like he's literally unloved in a my sister's keeper never let me go kind of way and the fact that it takes 4 seasons to get there is frankly insane

somehow can sensitively dive into things like post partum depression while also doing cursed amulet storylines. that's camp, babey!!!!!

everyone in this show is so bad at their job that it will make you feel better about your own workplace performance

guy complains that it costs LA taxpayers $88k to put a woman through fire academy but then we never think about those LA taxpayers when there's a 9.0 earthquake or a tsunami or a hurricane or a volcanic fissure opening up in the middle of the city (the last one is just where i'm predicting this show is going) (this isn't really a reason but more just an example of the kind of storytelling you have to emotionally prepare yourself for)

angela bassett is in it, even if she is a cop

god cursed the fire chief with magic blood so he can't kill himself and go to his idea of heaven (constantly making dinner for the wife and kids he killed with his alcoholism) (he does get to bang angela bassett though) (you like this dude because he's played by peter krause who could put on a fucking clinic on how to tee-hee dance his way around every red flag in human history)

ghosts are real and there are multiple weird plots based on this premise with shockingly long-term effects!!!!

EVERYONE is gay, even the people who are straight

jennifer love hewitt's studio ghibli sponsored tear ducts and ability to breast beautifully downstairs

two men are full ass raising a child together and they don't know that they've been married for several years now but they've been married for several years

you have never felt real human hunger until you've known the urge to motorboat lou ferrigno jr.

[grlbutnotwood]

hello my children I've come bearing treats, eat up

(I wrote a little fake dating hurt/comfort ficlet about mulder and scully posing as a married couple because I had a shitty week)

Many people are certain that the living room is the heart of the house.

Many people, statistically speaking, are also idiots.

The white modest two-story house in this sleepy neighbourhood would actively disagree - if it was capable of communication, that is. It had seen a lot of things, experienced in a way that felt like a warm embrace, a gentle presence in the sunlit beige walls.

1954. Sarah and Ben recieved a phone call on that kitchen - their granddaughter was born. Sarah at the sink dropped the glass she was washing, Ben standing beside her cried for the first time in six years (and no, crying over soap operas doesn't count if it's at night and no one sees it).

1967. James cried in his wife's arms as wave after wave of grief came over him. He'd lost his brother years ago, and yet it never really goes away, does it? The night started with them going through the photoalbums over tea and ended with Josie on kneeling at her husband's chair, stroking his hair as he shook silently on her shoulder.

1978. Leslie and Dot, both culinary school graduates, competed over who makes better dinner. To their neighbours, outside, they were best friends that were going through a rough time together. But on that kitchen, affection was easily given, kisses on cheeks, smiles so wide it hurt and dirty jokes that would have gotten them kicked out of town. The only place they could be truly what they are.

And now. Dana and Fox. Or what was that they called themselves? Doesn't really matter. They weren't there to settle somewhere normal, nondescript - rather they were there exactly because of everything wrong with it, just blowing through like a particularly awkward hurricane.

"One more comment about the weather and I'm shooting myself in the face," Scully let out a harsh breath, massaging her temples as she leaned her elbows on the counter just next to the sink. The commotion of the housewarming party melted away as the door to the kitchen was shut, soft footsteps approaching her.

Slender frame of one Fox Mulder leaned on the kitchen counter inches from her, the familiarity of his cologne and enveloping soothing presence like a balm to her fried nerves.

"I would strongly advice you not do that," his voice was low and teasing, his shoulder bumping into hers. "That face is too pretty to be wasted."

"Not your best one."

"Not the worst one either."

"True," she nodded and turned to face him, looking up at him - all bloodshot tired eyes and pale face. "You know, at one point I thought I might want all of this, suburban routine, three kids and a dog, the whole package. But now I honestly feel..."

"Dishonest? Jaded? Worn out? Out of place?" Mulder supplied, not without sympathy even with a corner of his mouth quirked up in a teasing smirk.

"Fucking done," Scully countered, watching as Mulder's smirk grew into a full-on smile as if watching the sun rise. But really, hearing Scully swear was a treat.

They stood there for a moment, oblivious to the happenings of the outside world, behind this door. The air smelled of herbal tea with orange peels, lasagna and a faint whiff of cleaning products, the only source of light - the dim lamp over the sink and the street lamps outside. Scully's hair caught gold and copper, so unbearably soft in her white t-shirt and with her cheek on her fist, the golden wedding band gleaming in the warm glow of the kitchen light.

It was so easy to pretend it was his.

"Hold still," he murmured, moving ever so closely. Scully, frowning now and yet obedient, stood still as Mulder tapped the skin beneath her eye. "You have an eyelash."

And as he took his hand away to let her see it, say something cheesy about making a wish, and of course, of course - she snorted rather loudly, predicting the sickly-sweet sentiment and ruining it completely as the eyelash fell away.

"Oh man, you didn't make a wish," he whined dramatically while Scully giggled into her palm as the music drifted from the half-opened window.

This kitchen knew love, not in the rings and vows and traditionally romantic rituals, those barely mattered.

It was in shared time and bumped shoulders, secretive smiles and affectionate "haha fuck you". A dropped eyelash and a giggle.

It would still be a long time before those two realized it. But then again, statistically, most people are idiots.

[astrolocherry]

JUPITER SERIES

Birthday Jupiter in Aries - Girl Born with the Headache from Hell

written by Astrolocherry

People born with Jupiter in Aries feel like the world is at her feet and under her command, until her wings suddenly burn out and her feet crash back down to the ground. There's a vigour for life that is resistant to the limitations that hold other people back. Jupiter in Aries arms her with a celestial guard. Your diamond who doesn't mind for rough conditions or a little blood. She is inquisitive and curious to a level that near sends her parents mad. And it can be a contagious type of inspiration that is a lifelong reminiscent of the spirit of the young. Self-confidence is a potion mixed with the courage, sass, and the spunk to confront her fears and survive the toughest conditions. She is competitive to a relentless degree, winning is the only reason for actually competing. And she can turn even the smallest of daily activities into a competition with someone. When victory is in reach, she seems to summon an extra dose of supernatural adrenaline power, a second wind comes more like a hurricane with fierce determination to win. Organic talent for sports, usually recognisable at an early age is a common Jupiter karmic gift in Aries. These abilities express across wide spectrums and shine in high pressure conditions. Though a Jupiter in Aries temperament is more likely to prefer solo-sports that prevent her from having to rely on others, allow personal goal setting, and the prize will be all her's in the end.

The Jupiter in Aries person likes to stay in motion and doesn't care much for those who can't keep up with her. She will stop at nothing to get the outcome she wants, whether exalting herself by reaching an aspiration, or through acts of mischief, and sometimes vengeance. Her vitriol is a natural curse when directed toward another person, and she must stay armed against those who know how to provoke her. This can overwhelmingly occur with the parental figures and be especially volatile during the formative years. Sometimes, this can be instigated or accompanied by deliberate attempts to be made to feel inadequate to a female sibling.

In the mythological story, Zeus ordered Ares to break his head open to relieve an excruciating headache. Jupiter in Aries individuals can be subject to frequent headaches and debilitating migraines, along with sharp pain behind the eyes.

The condition of Jupiter in Aries tends to require self-inflection points relating to troubles with impulsivity coupled with a grandiosity that can disregard reason and well-informed advice. Along with developing skills that reduce the fight or fight response, learning to pause and reflect rather than react also serves her well. These individuals often require substantial physical outlets that alleviate the inflammation of high stress, agitation, and general frustration at other people. There's usually a therapeutic connection with dogs that may provide a calming effect and a companion with equal energy to expel.

The Jupiter genie grants a gift for enchanted speculation. She has the foresight to spot a fortuitous opportunity when it arrives, usually through a vision or an inclination that she has felt before and it served her well. Immoderation is often the affliction that compromises her game. Eventually, she refuses to be cut by losses and challenges bad habits with objectives and head games. She is certainly wired to be reckless and senseless at times, but she goes head first into anything so soon that she learns early, and often develops a street wise nature beyond her time. Astrology could never predict what the Jupiter in Aries could ever do next.

Cherry

art by Valfre

[justinspoliticalcorner]

Zoë Schlanger at The Atlantic:

In the United States, as in most other countries, weather forecasts are a freely accessible government amenity. The National Weather Service issues alerts and predictions, warning of hurricanes and excessive heat and rainfall, all at the total cost to American taxpayers of roughly $4 per person per year. Anyone with a TV, smartphone, radio, or newspaper can know what tomorrow’s weather will look like, whether a hurricane is heading toward their town, or if a drought has been forecast for the next season. Even if they get that news from a privately owned app or TV station, much of the underlying weather data are courtesy of meteorologists working for the federal government.

Charging for popular services that were previously free isn’t generally a winning political strategy. But hard-right policy makers appear poised to try to do just that should Republicans gain power in the next term. Project 2025—a nearly 900-page book of policy proposals published by the conservative think tank the Heritage Foundation—states that an incoming administration should all but dissolve the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, under which the National Weather Service operates. Donald Trump has attempted to distance himself from Project 2025, but given that it was largely written by veterans of his first administration, the document is widely seen as a blueprint for a second Trump term.

NOAA “should be dismantled and many of its functions eliminated, sent to other agencies, privatized, or placed under the control of states and territories,” Project 2025 reads. The proposals roughly amount to two main avenues of attack. First, it suggests that the NWS should eliminate its public-facing forecasts, focus on data gathering, and otherwise “fully commercialize its forecasting operations,” which the authors of the plan imply will improve, not limit, forecasts for all Americans. Then, NOAA’s scientific-research arm, which studies things such as Arctic-ice dynamics and how greenhouse gases behave (and which the document calls “the source of much of NOAA’s climate alarmism”), should be aggressively shrunk. “The preponderance of its climate-change research should be disbanded,” the document says. It further notes that scientific agencies such as NOAA are “vulnerable to obstructionism of an Administration’s aims,” so appointees should be screened to ensure that their views are “wholly in sync” with the president’s. The U.S. is, without question, experiencing a summer of brutal weather. In just the past week, a record-breaking hurricane brought major flooding and power outages to Texas amid an extreme-heat advisory. More than a dozen tornadoes ripped through multiple states. Catastrophic flash flooding barreled through wildfire burn scars in New Mexico. Large parts of the West roasted in life-threatening temperatures. Facing any of this without the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration would be mayhem. And future years are likely to be worse.

The NWS serves as a crucial point of contact in a weather crisis, alerting the public when forecasts turn dangerous and advising emergency managers on the best plan of action. So far in 2024, the NWS has issued some 13,000 severe-thunderstorm warnings, 2,000 tornado warnings, and 1,800 flash-flood warnings, plus almost 3,000 river-flood warnings, according to JoAnn Becker, a meteorologist and the president of the union that represents NWS employees. NOAA is also home to the National Hurricane Center, which tracks storms, and the Office of Marine and Aviation Operations, whose pilots fly “hurricane hunter” planes directly into cyclones to measure their wind speed and hone the agency’s predictions. NOAA even predicts space weather. Just this past May, it forecast a severe geomagnetic storm with the potential to threaten power grids and satellites. (The most consequential outages never came to pass, but the solar storm did throw off farmers’ GPS-guided tractors for a while.) Privatizing the weather is not a new conservative aim. Nearly two decades ago, when the National Weather Service updated its website to be more user-friendly, Barry Myers, then executive vice president of AccuWeather, complained to the press that “we work very hard every day competing with other companies, and we also have to compete with the government.” In 2005, after meeting with a representative from AccuWeather, then-Senator Rick Santorum introduced a bill calling for the NWS to cease competition with the private sector, and reserve its forecasts for commercial providers. The bill never made it out of committee. But in 2017, Trump picked Myers to lead NOAA. (Myers withdrew his nomination after waiting two years for Senate confirmation.)

Funding for many of NOAA’s programs could plummet in 2025, and the agency already suffers from occasional telecommunications breakdowns, including a recent alert-system outage amid flooding in the Midwest. It is also subject to political pressures: In 2019, the agency backed then-President Trump’s false claim (accompanied by a seemingly Sharpie-altered map) that Hurricane Dorian was headed for Alabama. Private companies might be better funded and, theoretically, less subject to political whims. They can also use supercomputing power to hone NOAA’s data into hyperlocal predictions, perhaps for an area as small as a football stadium. Some, including AccuWeather, use their own proprietary algorithms to interpret NWS data and produce forecasts that they claim have superior accuracy. (Remember, though: Without NWS data, none of this would happen.)

[...] The NWS also has perks that a private system would be hard-pressed to replicate, including a partnership with the World Meteorological Organization, which allows the U.S. access to a suite of other countries’ weather models. International collaboration proved crucial in 2012, when Hurricane Sandy was still churning in the Atlantic Ocean. Initially, the American model predicted, incorrectly, that the storm would turn away from the East Coast. But the European model accurately forecast a collision course, which bought emergency managers in the U.S. crucial time to prepare before Sandy made ferocious landfall in New Jersey.

Project 2025 could have an impact on how accurate and precise weather forecasts are delivered, since NOAA and NWS could be significantly altered.

This is one of many reasons why we must vote Blue up and down the line.

See Also:

Daily Kos: Project 2025 will affect every part of life. Even weather updates

[bobcatmoran]

So, with the 20th anniversary of the US's incredibly ill-advised and generally terrible invasion of Iraq, I've been reminded of where I was at the time that happened. Namely, I was in college, and I was taking a course called "Human Geography of Global Issues." The professor was a Texan, and was known for a) the fact that he loudly and proudly wore cowboy boots everywhere, sometimes capped off with a ten gallon hat — not your typical fashion at my Minnesotan college — and b) his repeated insistence, delivered in his drawling accent, that "Bush Junior is not a real Texan — the whole family are just a bunch of carpetbaggers from New England." (he was also just an absolute gem of a man — I have a very vivid memory of coming into the Geography Department offices the next year, distraught because a computer glitch meant that none of my class registrations for the next semester had taken and the GIS course I wanted to take for my minor was full — and he calmed me down, reassured me that there were ways around this for not only the GIS class but all the classes I was now locked out of, helped me navigate the system, and I got an email within the week saying that despite the GIS class having no room in the online course registration, I was now registered for it)

He was also an expert on the Middle East. And, as it became clearer and clearer as the semester went on that the then-Current Administration (which he had negative respect for) was hellbent on going into Iraq for reasons which seemed to largely amount to "Gonna finish what Daddy Bush started," he made predictions. Predictions about how easy it would be to topple Saddam Hussein and how hard it would be to fill the power vacuum. Predictions about the looming sectarian time bomb between the Shia and Sunni Muslims in Iraq. Predictions about how the Kurds would react. Predictions about how the US would get bogged down and wouldn't be able or willing to leave for years and years and would, in the meantime, commit warcrimes that would just lead to the rise of new terrorist groups.

Every single one of those predictions came true.

(He also predicted in detail during one class, with terrifying accuracy and illustrations, exactly what would happen if a major hurricane hit New Orleans, which it did two years later with Katrina).

Meanwhile, on campus, a "Peace Camp" sprung up in front of the campus center, with students living in tents until…uh…ok, the goals were kind of fuzzy, but it was a fixture for the rest of the school year. At one point, the Young Republicans (all three of them :P) decided to set up a "Freedom Camp" on the other side of campus, which wound up consisting of like, two guys with signs for a single day, and which led to a sprouting of mocking signs for "Weed Camp" and "Space Camp."

Also, a group of anti-war protestors took up a station kitty-corner from campus and they were there every day until I graduated, waving signs, with cars honking as they passed.

[allthebrazilianpolitics]

Rio Grande do Sul Floods: How Can Brazil's Politicians Not See Climate?

The deadly floods in southern Brazil are unprecedented but not unexpected. Ahead of the October local elections, Brazilians must remember that politicians have ignored scientists' predictions and weakened legislation that could have helped deal with climate change.

The tragedy that has stuck Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil’s southernmost state, is unprecedented. The amount of rain that has fallen in recent days and is still falling there is extreme and so are the consequences. The death toll has reached 100, and more than a hundred people are still missing. More than 1 million people have been affected.

These impressive figures and the images that look more like disasters caused by hurricanes or tsunamis can generate a false idea of rarity, of bad luck. “It rained like never before, we couldn't have prepared for it" is the phrase most often used to justify calamities like this.

But it is no accident. It was already known, already expected. And, I'm sorry to say, it's going to happen again. And again. And not just with the gauchos in Rio Grande do Sul.

Don't take me for an alarmist or a pessimist. Science has been warning for a long time that the increased occurrence of extreme events is one of the main consequences of climate change. The surreal amount of carbon dioxide that accumulates in the atmosphere — due to human activities — and warms the planet, alters the entire functioning of the climate system. A warmer Earth means more energy in the equation. Heat is synonymous with tragedy.

Due to its geographical location, Rio Grande do Sul is particularly sensitive to the natural phenomena El Niño and La Niña. That's why it's relatively common for droughts and heavy rains to alternate there. But global warming is making this worse. So is deforestation. And although much of this new reality translates into situations that seem to take us by surprise, scientists had already estimated that this would be the case. The consecutive tragedies that have been accumulating since last year were not for lack of warning.

The independent online newspaper Intercept Brasil recalled on May 6 a study commissioned in 2014 by the government of then president Dilma Rousseff that warned of the risk of flooding in Rio Grande do Sul. The "Brazil 2040" report mentioned the dangers of agribusiness, especially in the state, and also of hydroelectric dams, which clashed with the government's electricity expansion plans. The report ended up being shelved in 2015 without any action being taken.

We didn’t have to wait until 2040 for predicted dangers to become reality. And it wasn't just this study that warned about the risks. Local researchers, such as Francisco Aquino, a climatologist at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), have shown that extreme events are already intensifying, without anything having been done to prevent deaths and losses.

Last year, Rio Grande do Sul was the state with the highest number of rain-related emergency and disaster decrees in Brazil.

Continue reading.

[youcouldmakealife]

Bracket Challenge: Round One

A little late, because the NHL decided to be unorthodox and spring the second round before the first was even through (rude), but here are everyone’s predictions!

Florida Panthers 67% Tampa Bay Lightning 33%

Toronto Maple Leafs 52% Boston Bruins 48%

New York Rangers 58% Washington Capitals 42%

Carolina Hurricanes 75% New York Islanders 25%

Colorado Avalanche 68% Winnipeg Jets 32%

Edmonton Oilers 75% Los Angeles Kings 25%

Vancouver Canucks 87% Nashville Predators 13%

Dallas Stars 60% Vegas Golden Knights 40%

Pretty damn solid predictions, everybody, possibly YCMAL 'verse related amount of faith in the 2023/4 Washington Capitals aside (also probably YCMAL 'verse Vancouver Canucks bias, who 23 of 24 ESPN pundits expect to die an unceremonious death in the coming round, a piece of information I hope will fuel the underdog arc they’ve already established with the ‘All-Star goalie injured put in the second string — oop, second string goalie injured, put in the AHLer’ storyline. (It does help when said AHLer beat Team USA to win Latvia’s first Bronze medal in Worlds last year and is a hero of the people as a result, tbh. That’s EXCELLENT underdog storyline setup by the hockey gods a year in advance).

It does help that there was only one upset in the first round, and y’all predicted said upset would happen. But pat yourselves on the back, everyone: we went 7/8 in the first round, with only a 4% margin on the one series that went the other way (in OT of Game 7, so 50/50 seems pretty fair). Better than most of the pundits!

[mariacallous]

Hurricane Beryl’s record-shattering intensification into a scale-topping Category 5 storm has stunned even the most seasoned experts. This storm is the nightmare scenario that meteorologists were worried about heading into the 2024 hurricane season.

All the warning indicators were blinking red in the weeks and months leading up to Beryl’s formation. The ocean is a veritable sauna ready to support any tropical disturbance that can get its act together this year.

The storm slammed into the islands of Grenada and Carriacou as a high-end Category 4 on Monday, July 1, bounding into the Caribbean, where it quickly grew into a Category 5. Forecasters expect Beryl to hit Jamaica as a major hurricane on Wednesday, July 3, before trekking over Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula by July 4. The storm’s future is uncertain once it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend.

Beryl’s litany of records would be impressive during the peak of hurricane season, but that isn’t even close yet. The hurricane was the Atlantic’s earliest Category 4 and Category 5 storm on record, beating out the historic duo of Dennis and Emily, respectively, from July 2005. It was also the farthest east in the tropical Atlantic we’ve ever seen a hurricane form so early in the season.

It’s a grim sign that something is seriously amiss in the Atlantic when a storm sets these historic milestones before we’ve even reached the July 4 holiday.

Fueling the storm were some of the warmest sea surface temperatures ever observed during the months of June and July. Beryl traversed waters that were 28 to 30 degrees Celsius, providing more than enough energy to help the storm reach its full potential. This is the kind of heat you’d expect to see in the tropical Atlantic during the peak of the season in late August and early September.

Hot water provides the energy hurricanes need to grow and thrive. Gusty winds evaporate a tiny bit of water off the sea’s surface. This warm water vapor rises into the clouds and releases its heat, which powers the thunderstorms that drive a hurricane’s intensity.

The Atlantic Ocean has been running a fever for the past year and a half. Sea surface temperatures across the ocean were the warmest on record for almost all of 2023 and continuing into 2024.

It’s not just that sea surface temperatures are running historically hot—that heat also stretches hundreds of meters deep beneath the surface.

Scientists use ocean heat content (OHC) to measure the depth of the heat through the ocean. A hurricane’s intense winds churn the ocean and force cooler waters from below to rise to the surface, leaving behind colder waters in the storm’s wake.

Higher OHC values limit the amount of cooling left behind by a storm, which allows the ocean to more easily support high-end storms later on down the line.

OHC values across the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean far outpace normal values for this point in the summer, and that’s unlikely to change much as we inch closer to the peak of the season.

All that potential energy is what has meteorologists so worried heading into the rest of hurricane season. NOAA and Colorado State University both released aggressive seasonal forecasts calling for as many as two dozen named tropical storms this year.

Experts knew that the ocean would be capable of supporting frightening storms this year. The only surprise is that Beryl formed so soon. This early-season storm could serve as an omen for any storms that form later this year.

Water temperatures are only part of the equation. A tropical cyclone is an exceptionally fragile structure that also requires vigorous and organized thunderstorms, low wind shear, ample moisture in the atmosphere, and few obstacles in its way in order to grow into a formidable beast.

Plenty of those ingredients are also expected throughout this hurricane season as forecasters watch the potential for La Niña to develop later this summer. La Niña patterns can make conditions more favorable for Atlantic storms by decreasing wind shear over the region.

It’s not just the number of storms that could form this year that has experts concerned, but their nature. Beryl just proved that any storm that takes root in a favorable environment could use those exceptionally warm waters to swirl into the record books. Any one of the many storms expected this season could have the opportunity to grow into a destructive hurricane that warrants extra attention and preparation.

Folks who live along or near the coast should use the relative quiet of the early hurricane season to prepare for whatever comes your way later this summer. Make sure you’ve got an emergency kit packed with supplies to deal with long-lasting utility outages. Plan what to do and where to go if your area is told to evacuate ahead of a storm.

[archivist-crow]

On this day:

CHARLES COUGHLAN'S COFFIN CARRIED AWAY

On September 8, 1900, a hurricane stormed up the Texas coast, disrupting the sandy soil of the Galveston cemetery and sending a lead-lined casket and the lovesick soul inside it out to sea. The coffin contained Charles Coughlan, a classical actor from Prince Edward Island, Canada. Charles had excelled in school and then appalled his family by announcing that he intended to follow a career in the theater.

He consulted a fortune teller to gauge his success and was forewarned that he would die at the height of his fame in an American southern city. The fortune teller also warned him that he would have no rest until he returned to the place of his birth. The prediction made an impression on him, and he repeated it frequently to friends.

In 1899 Charles was with an acting troupe in Galveston, Texas, when he collapsed and unexpectedly died. He was buried in Galveston, and shortly after the interment, the tempest took the casket away. The helpful waters of the Gulf Stream floated his coffin from Galveston, along the Atlantic seaboard, and deposited it at Bay Fortune, Prince Edward Island. The journey was 2,000 miles long. It is said that just over eight years after the hurricane some fishermen discovered the huge box, covered with moss and barnacles, floating in the shallows of the island near where Charles once lived.

A more romantic version of the story has it that the popular actor was estranged from his wife, but had a lover on Prince Edward Island that he could not bear to be away from. When he died, his wife buried him in Galveston. Being so far away from his sweetheart caused his spirit great turmoil and drew him back to his true love in the north.

Text from: Almanac of the Infamous, the Incredible, and the Ignored by Juanita Rose Violins, published by Weiser Books, 2009

[tomorrowusa]

Predictions for seats in Parliament in the UK election

Although it's almost universally assumed that the Conservative Party will lose bigtime in the general election, the forecasts for number of seats in the House of Commons are more varied than one would expect. Survation predicts 470 seats for Labour while Britain Elects (at The New Statesman) predicts a mere 418 seats for them.

So I created this chart to compare predictions from five sources. In the right column are the number of seats for each party at end of the previous Parliament in May. If the image below is too small, try this direct link.

Sources...

The Guardian Electoral Calculus Nowcast Britain Elects (The New Statesman) Survation

326 seats out of the total 650 are needed for a majority. The numbers in the Nowcast prediction add up to just 649 because they aren't counting the Speaker who does not vote.

Polls close at 10:00 PM BST which is 2100 GMT. To determine when that is in your local time, click here.

According to this election night timeline at The Guardian, results from the 650 constituencies will start flooding in around 3:00 AM BST. Though some interesting results may be announced as early as a couple of hours before then.

What time will we know who won? Hour-by-hour guide to election night

Some constituencies which I'll be paying particular attention to tonight...

Richmond and Northallerton – Rishi Sunak's seat. The odds are (slightly) that he will keep his seat though it's far from certain. One of his challengers is a candidate who goes by the name Count Binface.

Godalming and Ash – Jeremy Hunt, the Conservative Chancellor of the Exchequer, who is said to be in serious danger of losing his seat.

Chingford and Woodford Green - Iain Duncan Smith, leader of the Conservative Party for a few years in the 2000s.

North East Somerset and Hanham – Jacob Rees-Mogg, a particularly annoying Tory grandee who would be lucky to get voted back to the House.

South West Norfolk – Liz Truss, Rishi Sunak's immediate predecessor whose time in Number 10 was famously outlasted by a head of lettuce.

Clacton – Nigel Farage, head of the far right Reform Party and infamous Brexit fanatic. Because Farage seems to be leading there, Clacton may be the only constituency where it's possible to justify voting Tory — just to block him.

Holborn and St Pancras – Sir Keir Starmer, the next Labour prime minister. Should be an easy win for him there.

Kingston and Surbiton – Sir Ed Davey, head of the Liberal Democrats. If the Lib Dems have a particularly good evening then it's within the realm of possibility that they could replace the Conservatives as the official opposition.

So why should you take an interest in this election? If you're reading posts in this blog then you are likely a political nerd. Also, UK elections are interesting and fun. Monty Python devoted several sketches to UK election scenarios.

But frankly, unless Putin is overthrown in a coup or a major hurricane strikes Mar-a-Lago, this will be the best political news of the month. So savor every minute of coverage of it.

There should be live coverage at the BBC here. ITV News and other reputable UK news providers may also offer live coverage. One source to avoid is GB News which is roughly the Fox News of the UK. *shudders*

[allthatsleftintheworld]

The Only Light Left Burning - Live blog (spoilers)

Andrew (chapter 2)

I’ve gotta say, I really love Eric’s writing pace. Leaving Jamie’s chapter on the hurricane and then dipping into the more day-to-day apocalypse issues is a nice touch. And with Andrew’s chapter I’m once again reminded why first person POV books are elite, his anxiety spiral is REAL. Don’t get me wrong, I fucking love Jamie, but I always feel comfort being in Andrew’s shoes in a weird way. I think they fit me better. Weird analogy, anyway…

Andrew interacting with the kids is lovely, and the humour in his internal monologue always gets me. Plus The Kid is very sweet. I have a horrible gut feeling that we’re getting introduced to these characters in preparation for them being taken over by fort Carolina, and now that I’m a mum it’s putting me on edge. But that’s a good thing, I want the book to make me invested in these characters, and I am in the span of literally a couple of pages.

Rocky Horror I am going to be so sad when you eventually use your body as a human shield to save Andrew from whoever is trying to kill them in this book. That is my prediction. I don’t know if it’s just because Eric has alluded to this book being absolutely heartbreaking, but the second I fall in love with a character I’m convinced he’s going to kill them off in a tragic way. And I may be taking this too personally, but Eric if you kill off this heavily tattooed character I’m going to think it’s a slight on me.

Last note, “where does one find lube in the apocalypse?” Did Eric read my fic? I’m concerned. I chose to believe he skimmed it and didn’t notice how rusty my writing is. Also it was a two year time jump so as long as Andrew doesn’t figure out the answer to this question during the book, my fic stays canon compliant.

[tobiasdrake]

It's over. All we can do now is find ourselves again. Then hold our heads high and walk forward. To violence.

Appreciated. This kind of mourning isn't something you can just do overnight. Some agonies can take weeks, months, or even years to get over. Some, you never do.

Though it helps to have friends with you who can share your pain. The worst impulse after a terrible loss is the impulse to bury yourself away from the people who love you.

Erlina knows what it's like to have someone so precious to you that you would scorch the world to see them safe. Someone whose wellbeing is so valuable that any indignity, any cruelty, any humiliation is worth it if it means they'll be able to smile again tomorrow.

She understands that kind of love. That kind of fear. What she doesn't understand is that kind of loss. If she's lucky, she never will. Hopefully, she'll never have to see what's surely become of Brugaves.

But I'm sure she can imagine what it feels like. It's kept her up at night for years.

So when she dies, when she's bleeding out onto the floor and staring up at my eyes full of despair and hatred, she'll understand why. Because she would do the same for hers.

The time for dismal showers is past. I'm ready to be a hurricane.

Appreciated. Is our deal fulfilled? Are you going to give us our vindictive passage?

Hold up, we're going down? I figured we were going up. Like, the Sea of Stars was a poetic term for space.

Is that not how this works? We can't access the other timelines by flying into space like Kingdom Hearts worlds?

Goddammit. ChatGPT wants me to fill out paperwork. Resh'an, is there a jailbreak or something we can use to skip this step?

See, if you'd ever bothered to fill out the proper forms for a legal name change, this wouldn't be a concern. You should think about that. Bureaucracy can be an asshole to navigate for anyone with personal information that isn't found on their birth certificate.

Yep. Lunar Monk, Pirate Co-Captain--

Serai: I never agreed to that!

--and Headmistress of Zenith Academy. Also Wheels Semi-Champion, co-Founder of Mirth, sponsor of a child labor workshop, liberator of Kiln Mountain....

...and Warrior Cook Apprentice. Just apprentice. I'll never be as good as the master but it would be my privilege to carry on his teachings.

Is that enough titles for my registration?

O.O Okay, yeah. That settles it. We are going down to reach the other timelines. This is throwing me for a loop. I did not anticipate down.

I thought the Sea of Stars would be more stars and less sea. Good thing I know how to make paths across water.

Oh, did I mention that one? Yeah, I fixed your bridge. You're welcome.

Down we go. I am excited to finally see what the titular Sea of Stars is.

These look like the crystals we can infuse with Solstice energy that we see lying around sometimes. But glowing with a power that's neither Solar nor Lunar.

And the place is protected not by creatures but... what? The idea of creatures given form and substance? Their memory?

By the moon. It's beautiful. And terrifying. And eldritch. A tapestry of realities and possibilities in a vast ocean of impermanence.

If this is our destination, then it's likely a timeline that's been completely overrun by a World Eater. It's unlikely Aephorul would make his fortress in a plane that's still in conflict. And he can't access ones defended by Guardian Gods.

What manner of world have we even--

Oh, we've crossed genres to get here. OKAY. THIS IS FINE.

My staff could use the warm-up. How about you, Zale? Blood in your eyes?

Blood in your eyes. Check.

The past isn't going to tell us jack shit about this place, Teaks. That's the wrong direction to be looking.

This is a world of technology. I. Was. Not. Expecting this. I need a moment to wrap my head around it. There's no way to predict what's going to happen here; We need to be prepared for anything.

ROBOT SKELETON OKAY I WAS NOT PREPARED FOR THAT

HI

UM

HI

BUDDY

...

I'm cool with it, I just... Of all the things I imagined your secret could be, this never even crossed my mind.

Does it hurt? Or... Wait... Are you a cyborg or an android?

YEAH I CAN SEE WHY

That's not an easy conversation to raise with people. Especially medieval people. There is a non-zero chance you would have been burned as a witch.

Hon, our ship is crewed by the Ghost of Melodies Past. This is a shock, but far from a dealbreaker.

I'm sure Teaks has a million questions for you. And I have a million questions for Teaks once she's finished. But we're as tight as we've ever been.