#hawkish

[scienza-magia]

Eurozona, tassi ed inflazione rallentano il mercato dell'export

Tassi, le strade diverse di Fed e Bce. L'economia Usa regge e Powell può alzare ancora. L'Europa invece rischia la recessione. Jerome Powell e Christine Lagarde sono arrivati con stati d'animo diversi tra le montagne del Wyoming, dove ieri si è aperto il simposio dei banchieri centrali organizzato dalla Federal Reserve. Entrambi saliranno sul palco oggi, ma se al numero uno di Eccles Building basterà esibire una bella faccia da poker per non spaventare i mercati, a Madame Bce sarà richiesto ben altro sforzo. Stati Uniti ed eurozona sono al momento affetti da un'inflazione appiccicosa, ma sempre più separati sotto il profilo congiunturale. E questa divaricazione fa una grande differenza quando si deve giustificare la volontà di mantenere una politica monetaria restrittiva. Di sicuro a Jackson Hole ci sono alcuni convitati di pietra evocati fin dal titolo dell'evento («Cambiamenti strutturali nell'economia globale»): il primo è la Cina, con le tensioni geopolitiche ed economiche che la circondano; l'altro sono gli sviluppi della guerra fra Russia e Ucraina; il terzo è il consolidarsi all'interno dei Brics di un nocciolo duro anti-dollaro. Tre incognite di peso, ma non ancora sufficienti per spostare i riflettori dalla traiettoria dei tassi.

Ed è qui, in quello che per Eurolandia appare sempre più come un terreno minato, che Powell ha ancora margini per incastonare, a ottobre o a novembre, la dodicesima stretta che porterà il costo del denaro al 5,50-5,75%. Come sostiene Blerina Uruci di T. Rowe Price, per il capo dell'istituto di Washington «non è il momento di agitare le acque» mostrandosi troppo «hawkish». Non ne ha neppure bisogno: l'indice Atlanta Fed Gdp Now stima per il terzo trimestre un'espansione del 5,8% sorretta dallo slancio dei consumi, dal rimbalzo della produzione industriale, da un tasso di disoccupazione in calo (al 3,5% in luglio) e dalla tenuta del mercato edile. Al netto delle nuvole grigie nel cielo a stelle e strisce portate dalla decisione di Moody's e Standard&Poor's di declassare alcuni banche e dai 400 fallimenti da inizio anno (il doppio dello scorso anno), si tratta di numeri solidi a sostegno della tesi secondo cui è necessario non togliere il piede dal pedale dei tassi. Anche perché, dopo 13 mesi consecutivi di calo, l'inflazione è salita in luglio al 3,2%. L'aspetto cruciale del discorso di oggi di Powell non è quindi se i tassi saliranno ancora, ma quando smetteranno di farlo. È però probabile che sul cosiddetto «pivot» il successore della Yellen tenga le carte coperte. La sola certezza è che un eventuale taglio del costo del denaro non arriverà prima del 2024, come peraltro confermato ieri da Patrick Harker, presidente della Fed di Philadelphia, che tuttavia prevede «tassi stabili per il resto dell'anno». Più complicato appare invece il lavoro della Bce. La Lagarde ha legato le prossime decisioni di politica monetaria ai dati economici, ma se l'inflazione è considerata ancora fuori controllo malgrado il calo di luglio (6,1% dal 6,4% di giugno), la contrazione subita anche dal settore dei servizi mostra che Eurolandia è sul binario della recessione. Il rallentamento della crescita cinese è un'arma a doppio taglio: se da un lato può accelerare il processo disinflazionistico, dall'altro rischia di indebolire l'export europeo, come già testimoniano le cifre dell'Ocse. L'Organizzazione parigina dà infatti conto che le esportazioni di merci del G20 sono calate da aprile a giugno del 3,1% (dopo +2,2% nel primo trimestre), con l'Italia finita in «rosso» (-0,7% dopo il +4,7% del primo trimestre). Buoni motivi per tenere le mani lontane dai tassi e vedere che succede. Read the full article

[diamondmine2020]

TERMINOLOGIES USED IN FOREX

This is Just Like every Field you try to learn, U would have to get accustomed to its Terms and TerminologiesSo also is the Field of Forex, U would need to learn about the Terminologies so as to be able to communicate with the Market, Analysts and also with your fellow Traders.U may be among the gathering of Forex Traders but U won’t understand a dime of what they are saying, this is because U…

[cheaphousespending]

Fed remains hawkish for 2023; rates remain mostly stable

The Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation is far from over, which means market volatility will likely remain the norm for 2023. Fed chairman Jerome Powell said in an interview with The Economic Club, “The disinflationary process has begun,” but it’s going to take “not just this year but next year to get down to 2%.” The 2% mark is the Fed’s preferred level of inflation. Currently, the United…

[mercoglianotrueblog]

#Fed expected to announce 25 basis points increase

but central #bankers still #hawkish

#inflation is overstated: inputs like #home prices lag, rate #hikes from 2022 yet to be fully felt and..

the shrunken #money

if not, #recession

https://salvatoremercogliano.blogspot.com/2023/01/if-fed

[nerevar-quote-and-star]

Yet another wild crackship between my LDB and some Skyrim dumbo, but this time it's General Tullius, and it actually gets madder from there

Look, a lot of this surprised me too. It sure surprised @elder-dragon-reposes and yet it makes sense and that's the strange beauty of it

ao3 | masterlist

He could be forgiven for not seeing her at Helgen. Between Ulfric's capture and the following dragon attack, Tullius had his hands full with escaped prisoners and a town in ruins. Not to mention Elenwen's attempts to take over his execution. One half-elf caught in the crossfire was below his attention at the time. When she came into Castle Dour, a cold wind in her wake as she spoke about fire and death, he had no choice but to pay attention to her. Especially when she brought up things like "peace" and "ceasefire." This Last Dragonborn was out of her mind.

Yet somehow, she led him into an agreement to meet with the Stormcloaks at High Hrothgar.

Tullius isn't quite sure he likes that. She's as double-edged as any Thalmor diplomat with her words. As noble as her intentions appear on the surface, he's not sure he can trust her.

At High Hrothgar, the Last Dragonborn, Leara, leads both sides into an agreement where no one gets what they want, but no one is worse off, and she plans to trap a dragon in a castle.

She . . . plans to trap a dragon in a castle.

Tullius knows he was sent to Skyrim to tame the rebellion, but no one ever prepared him for how maddening the people of Skyrim were. No one is as maddening as the Nords' hero. Tullius cannot understand her. He's not sure he wants to, all things considered.

The Legate is amused by his consternation. He knows this even without her saying anything. But Tullius is worried. This Leara has the power to sway Skyrim in whatever way she chooses, and if she joins the Stormcloaks, then he has a feeling that the Empire might lose more than Skyrim before all is over.

He keeps an ear out for the Dragonborn's movements. His spy network throughout Skyrim is extensive: If she breathes in Windhelm's direction, if she says anything about the Civil War, then he'll need to be ready. This woman has slain dragons. He doesn't want to see what she'll do to a legion of mortal men. Tullius needs to be ready.

Tullius is not ready when Leara walks into Castle Dour again, armorless and prim as she waltzs into his war room. Legate Rikke greets her, but Tullius pretends to give half an ear. He looks like he's going through reports, but he's trying to keep an eye on the anomaly in the room.

Legate Rikke and the Dragonborn talk quietly together. And then the Dragonborn leaves and Tullius finally puts down his paperwork. Legate Rikke is frowning.

"What did she want?"

The Legate's attention snaps to him.

"She wanted to know about our support from Cyrodiil, sir." "Support?" "She mentioned your inability to negotiate a peace settlement, General."

Tullius recalled that. He'd told the Dragonborn he couldn't do more than accept Ulfric's surrender. But why did the Dragonborn want to know about the Imperials' ability to negotiate with the rebels? Didn't she already get her peace treaty and trap her dragon?

Tullius cannot wrap his head around her. Everything his spies have reported paints her as kindness. Even the coldest Nords seem to thaw around her. But Tullius can't base his understanding of such a power player like the Dragonborn on reports and a handful of interactions. He'd have to speak with her himself.

The Winking Skeever is busy when he steps in. A few heads turn, but otherwise, no one pays Tullius any particular attention. The Dragonborn isn't difficult to find, either: She's at a corner table with her nose buried in a dusty book.

Tullius makes his way over to her.

The Dragonborn is surprised to see him but still invites Tullius to sit at her table.

"I assume this is about my discussion with your legate earlier."

She's perceptive. But Tullius already knew that.

"Do you always discuss politics in a bar?"

At his question, the Dragonborn offers a little half-smile, her eyes dancing with amusement.

"Do you?"

No. Honestly, Tullius couldn't recall the last tie he even visited a bar or tavern other than while traveling. Perhaps he was working too late, but between the Civil War, Elenwen, the dragons, and (maybe) the Dragonborn, he couldn't afford to slack off. Why else would Tullius chase the Dragonborn down to the local inn?

"Have you read much about Skyrim?"

Her question surprises him.

"War commentaries mostly. Military history."

The nod of her precise head is measured as if she expected that response. Marking her page, she closes her book and shows him the cover. It's some thick tome he's never heard of, but the knotwork dragon design around the edges breathes of old Nordic craftsmanship.

"As Dragonborn . . . [she pauses for a long moment] . . . As Dragonborn, I am highly invested in the preservation of the Empire and Skyrim."

She chews her lip.

Tullius almost asks if she's about to join the Legion. He can't deny that he'd hoped that would be her ultimate decision, but sitting here across from the Dragonborn as she was now, deliberating over words and tapping her book's cover, Tullius knew she wasn't about to swear fealty to the Emperor.

When she continues, she speaks slowly.

"General Tullius, would you be willing to help me? I need to reach out to people in the Imperial City about a peace summit, and I don't know where to begin."

A peace summit?

"I take it Ulfric didn't put you up to this?"

Her frown is surprising.

"No, he didn't. I asked him."

The Dragonborn asked Ulfric if she could talk to the Empire about a peace summit?

Before he could ask what in Oblivion that was supposed to mean, the server brought a tea service to the table. Just as quickly, he was gone.

"Would you care for a cup, General? I'm afraid all they have is lavender honey." "I . . . would like that--" "Leara."

She supplied. Her lips quirked.

So Tullius found himself ensconced at a table in The Winking Skeever and discussing different politicians and diplomats back in the Imperial City with the Dragonborn – Leara. He's halfway through his second cup when she admits that she's trying to find a peaceful resolution to the Civil War that could please everyone. He calls her a hopeful idiot, but she smiles.

"You can't please everyone." "Well, I don't think I can please the Dominion, but I can tie them in legal knots."

Leara wiggles her fingers at him, her rings glittering in the candlelight, and Tullius finds himself speechless.

If the Dragonborn – Leara – can tie the Thalmor up with a loophole, how imminent would their retaliation be? Tullius is at once intrigued and put off.

She was mad.

"Here, you'll want to write . . ."

But by the Divines, he was going to help her anyway, wasn't he? If Leara could talk Ulfric off his warpath, then maybe there was something to her hair-brained scheme.

Tullius sees Leara a few days later. She's been to the Blue Palace and the Bards College, she tells him when he meets her again at the 'Skeever. She's combing through maps and treaties, drafting letters, and making lists. Her mind is running at speeds Tullius can't comprehend, and yet she keeps looking to him for advice.

As Leara stirs a lump of sugar into her snowberry spice tea and peruses another list, Tullius wonders if she did this with Ulfric when she went to ask him to consider peace.

Her penmanship is as poised as the rest of her. He cannot see her against the harsh stony backdrop of Windhelm, amidst the snow and vitriol. She's too civilized for Skyrim. She's almost too civilized for Cyrodiil, but Tullius won't think of that.

He doesn't have a chance to give it much thought anyway when she's asking him about neutrality and the terms of the Concordat.

It's late when Tullius leaves her the second time. As he leaves, she's carrying a stack of papers upstairs. She has a hopeful lift in her step.

Tullius almost smiles.

Almost.

The next morning, Legate Rikke drops a new report on his desk. It's from Captain Aldis.

"What's this, Legate?" "There was a break-in, sir." "And we're concerned with this, because?"

Legate Rikke's jaw tightens, her eyes are wide. Whatever it is has unsettled her.

"It was at The Winking Skeever."

She sighs. Heavy. It's a familiar frustration.

"General, I believe that the Thalmor were exercising their Concordat-given rights."

A pit settles in Tullius's stomach.

"They took the Dragonborn, sir." "On what grounds?" "It doesn't say. sir. It doesn't even mention the Thalmor at all. But you know–"

Tullius doesn't hear the rest of the sentence because he realizes his mistake. He should never have discussed the possibility of an armistice with Leara in a public room. Who overheard her? Who saw Leara's notes and lists and books? Who ratted her out to the Thalmor?

Tullius's fist clenches, his knuckles pale. The one person with a Divine's chance in Oblivion to bring a favorable resolution to the Civil War and the Thalmor took her like every Talos worshipper the Empire was supposed to turn a blind eye too.

He paces around his office. Legate Rikke has left him alone, and now all Tullius can do is think and walk. Turn. Think and walk. Turn. The cycle repeats throughout his office. He only suspects that the Thalmor took Leara. Without concrete proof, he can't accuse them or he'll risk something far more uncomfortable than paperwork. But if he does nothing, then every hope for peace in Skyrim vanishes in the Dragonborn's wake.

Tullius stopped in the middle of his office, standing at a crossroads. Was it possible to ascertain that the Thalmoor abducted Leara and to request her freedom without bringing Elenwen down on his head? Probably not. But . . .

Tullius recalled the wide eyes, the fear swimming in the teary blue when Leara was faced with Elenwen at High Hrothgar. At the time, Tullius didn't think much of the Dragonborn's aversion to her. Most people hated the Thalmor Ambassador on a good day. But the terror that flickered in Leara's face before she grew cold and distant and manipulated the entire table to her own ends came back to him.

No, Tullius knew Elenwen personally had the Dragonborn. There was a history there he couldn't see, but it peeked at the edges of his vision in brilliant horror.

Elenwen had Leara, and she wouldn't let the half-elf go lightly.

If Leara could cheat an entire room of warring politicians and soldiers while ensuring a truce, then Tullius could sure as Hell try to manipulate Elenwen.

Sitting at his desk, the General ruled out any official Legion channels. Those would be tied back to him and ruin any chance Leara had of negotiating her armistice. Something under the table, then.

Mercenaries were messy. Robbing Elenwen would take a different hand. He grimaces and drafts a letter.

General . . .

The messenger hawk returns the next evening. Tullius doesn't want to think about why the hawk returned so quickly. He just hoped his charade would hold.

(Writing Galmar Stone-Fist of all people to encourage a Stormcloak raid on Northwatch Keep was something Tullius knew he could never live down if it got back to any of his superiors in Cyrodiil. He couldn't trust that General Stone-Fist would take an anonymous tip at face value, but as Leara soliloquised late that last night,)

"The enemy of my enemy is my friend."

It's four long days of giving only half his attention to his job before an Imperial scout reports that the Stormcloaks attacked the Thalmor fortress of Northwatch. When the Legion got there, nothing was left but smoldering ruins.

"They had a dragon, sir."

Tullius didn't want to know how they had a dragon, but he was optimistic that it meant Leara made it out of there alive.

With the Stormcloaks, but alive.

He sleeps through the night for the first time in over a week. When Tullius wakes up, he wonders how he could turn to the rebels to save the Dragonborn. Effective, yes, but it went against everything he was supposed to represent.

But she's alive.

She would be dead or worse off if he hadn't done it.

Tullius uses that thought to bolster himself through the coming weeks.

Then, a letter addressed to Tullius comes by way of Whiterun of all places. He recognizes the slender script curling his name across the paper. It's a short letter asking him to retrieve her belongings from her room at the 'Skeever. Two things stand out to him: The first is the thank you. Tullius cannot tell what Leara means by it because he knows that Stone-Fist didn't know who sent the tip about Northwatch. And yet there's a tearstain on the parchment, small and alone as if any others were quickly dashed away after the first one fell. The second is that all her books, papers, the things she worked on for her peace talk were all hidden in a panel behind the bookshelf in her boardroom.

Tullius didn't even think of Leara losing all her work. He was more concerned about getting her out. He was more worried about her than anything else.

Tullius buries his face in his hands.

This was a familiar feeling. It'd been years since the last time he felt like this.

Although, Tullius gave himself a wry smile, he doubted he'd have betrayed the Empire for the Countess of Anvil's cousin.

Tullius goes early the next morning to retrieve Leara's things, hidden or otherwise. A member of his spy network is tasked with getting the parcels to a Lydia in Whiterun. Then Tullius watches as every connection he has to the Dragonborn disappears out the doors of Castle Dour.

It's back to the everyday humdrum of war, then.

Until, some months later, a familiar half-elf comes into Solitude. Now, she's accompanied by a dark-haired Nord woman in heavy armor. Her stormy expression and hawkish eyes remind Tullius of Rikke at times. Leara introduces her as Lydia, her housecarl. Then Leara is handing him a folio of papers.

"I've been corresponding with some of the Elder Council. I'm planning a summit in Whiterun."

He takes the folio from her.

"What's this?" "My draft for a permanent peace treaty. I thought that since you helped me, you'd like to peruse it. Of course, I need to get it to Jarl Elisif when you're finished."

That Leara is offering to let him be a part of her peace treaty isn't lost on Tullius. He sets the folio on the table but leaves his hand on top, protecting it.

"I can come back for it tomorrow." "I'll get it back to you tonight."

Legate Rikke coughs, obviously. Tullius adds,

". . . we can discuss it over dinner, if you like?"

Leara's smile is full.

"I would like that."

They don't end up talking much about the draft. But Tullius gives Leara some of his favorite brandy after their dinner of roast lamb and stewed vegetables. Her giggle is light and airy, and her hand is cool like spring water when he takes it across the table.

Perhaps he drank more than he should have, but liquid courage was a reassuring friend.

At the end of the night, Leara, tipsy and yet all grace, presses a petal soft kiss to the corner of his mouth. She pulls away.

His hands slide up her arms, callused fingers catching on the soft linen of her sleeves. And he pulls her back and kisses her, full and properly on the mouth.

Leara tastes of tea and winter and something floral and frosted. There's more than magic in her mouth – there's music and mercy. If Tullius wasn't drunk before, he finds himself intoxicated on Leara.

She strokes his face, smiling, always smiling, and then backs away. Her eyes are bright and liquid and as deep as Lake Rumare. In the low glow of golden orange firelight, she is beautiful.

He loves her.

He doesn't say it, and soon she's gone, slipping through doors into the night. An angel passing from the room.

The next day, he finds that she left him her address. It had been a long time since Tullius even tried to write a love letter. They were never his strong suit, but Leara had a way of inspiring madness in him. He wrote her.

And Leara wrote him back.

Again and again and again.

Tullius doesn't expect for his presence to be needed when the summit is called in Whiterun. The Empire has its own group of delegates to negotiate the terms of Skyrim's division. But still, Elisif the Fair says that General Tullius has been asked to attend. The young queen seems as if she can't quite believe it, but she was often wide-eyed and overwhelmed as it was.

(Maybe Julia was right. He should listen to Elisif more. But pretty soon, it was likely Tullius would never see the Queen of Solitude again.)

Leara is there in Whiterun, laying out the terms of the Armistice with the light and delicacy he'd come to expect from her. How many others here knew she was anxious that things would crumble apart, that things would come to blows, and that the war would escalate for all her efforts to temper the fire?

Ulfric's face is a dark stormcloud, but somehow the Jarl of Windhelm appears to hold his tongue around the Dragonborn. He watches her, defers to her, and in return, Leara smiles at him.

Tullius is simply in an advisory position for the Imperial delegates to mine information on the state of the Civil War and the Imperial Legion. He never speaks to Ulfric, and seldom to Leara during the weeklong summit. But he sees the Jarl speak to her between sessions. Leara is quiet and nods. Her eyes are faraway and thoughtful.

Tullius remembers that when she first brought the idea of the summit to him, Leara mentioned that she convinced Ulfric to agree to it. For the first time, Tullius wonders how Leara went about winning Ulfric Stormcloak to her side.

His chest burns.

When the Armistice is signed and Skyrim divided in two–

"Divided, you can finally be united."

Leara said.

–there is a feast. Leara is in demand all night. Tullius watches from the sidelines, some Cyrodilic brandy in hand as he watches one person after another flit around her, bees buzzing around a blooming rose. After a while, Tullius gets up and retires to the quiet of the Dragonsreach porch.

He isn't out there long when the doors open again. From the dark stairwell where he sat, he saw Leara flit by, orbited by Ulfric.

Tullius's hand tightened on his glass.

"You must be relieved that's over." "I'm glad we could reach a resolution."

She deflected Ulfric's concern with a wave of her hand.

But Tullius knew the truth: She was terrified of the summit. She was terrified she'd fail.

"What will you do now?"

Leara's question broke through Tullius's thoughts.

Ulfric shifted.

"There's much to do. Skyrim hasn't been in a state like this since the Second Era. I'll need to work quickly to bring stability to the east before we can truly reap any of tonight's rewards." "You have a busy schedule, Jarl Ulfric! [her laugh is musical] Even when my work ends, you still have so much to do!" "Leara . . ."

There's a hesitation in Ulfric's voice that Tullius never would have imagined from the man who Shouted High King Torygg apart. Leara's responding,

"Yes, Ulfric?"

is careful.

"I was hoping that you would come to Windhelm with me. To help me." "Help you? As an advisor? Certainly, but–" "Not as an advisor. Not . . . as you're thinking. Leara, surely you must know what I feel for you." "Oh."

If Tullius didn't fear being caught, he'd have stormed from the porch. Or over to Ulfric and pushed him off. Or something. His blood was rushing in his ears.

Certainly, he and Leara hadn't truly defined what it was between them. This week was the first time he'd seen her since kissing her that night in Solitude, and in this week, they'd hardly been alone together long enough to discuss anything beyond the summit and the usual pleasantries.

But her letters were candid and funny and full of ideas. Her mind spilled across the page in curling and shifting lines.

Tullius knew then that while he had Leara's mind, there was every possibility that Ulfric had her heart. She was as divided as Skyrim was.

"Ulfric–" "While Skyrim was at war, I knew I couldn't give you the attention you deserved. But now that we can have some peace, I wish to ask you for your hand. Leara, you ignite a fire in my chest that burns my heart when you are near. Please do me the honor of agreeing to marry me."

There's silence. Long, drawn-out silence. Somewhere on the plains, a wolf howls. Its cry echoes the pain in Tullius's chest.

"Ulfric . . ."

Leara's voice is choked, emotional but she is forcing it down.

"Ulfric, you're very dear to me, but I can't marry you."

It was only Ulfric's loud,

"You can't? Why?"

That covered the sound of Tullius's brandy glass slipping to shatter on the stone stairs.

Leara hesitated.

"I can't give you my heart because it belongs to someone else. I can't take it back." "Who?"

Leara quieted.

"Please, Leara, if you won't marry me, then allow me the courtesy of knowing who I lost you to!" "I–"

Leara choked.

Tullius's heart sped up as his hands shook. He was as anxious as Ulfric to hear her answer.

"You won't like it." "Who is it? Galmar? I know he was the one to pull you from that Thalmor pit."

Divines. That would just be the cherry on top of this entire fiasco, wouldn't it?

"No, not . . . It's . . . General Tullius."

The silence that followed was more deafening than any that proceeded it. Even from the darkened stairwell, Tullius could since the thunder around Ulfric, rumbling silent and yet violent.

"You won't marry me because you're in love with Tullius?" "If that's how you want to put it, yes, that's it." "Leara – I, he . . ."

For once, all of Ulfric's fine speeches seemed to fail him.

"Please don't be upset."

Leara's voice is as soothing as the first spring rain, as far apart from Ulfric's hurricane as possible.

There was a rustle of skirts.

"You are a very important person to me, for more than you can possibly know, but I can't give you the love you want. It's not mine to give you." "But Tullius–" "Has been so vital to me during these last several months. We would not have this peace if not for him. I needed him." "I need you." "I know, but I've given you all I can. I can't give you any more."

Tullius peeks around the corner far enough to see Leara on her tiptoes. She whispers something in Ulfric's ear, then presses a fleeting kiss to his cheek. Tullius ducks back just in time to be hidden as Ulfric turns and leaves the porch. The doors shut behind him with a whisper of finality.

"You can come out now, General."

Tullius's knees are stiff as he gets up from the steps. Leara is waiting for him in the middle of the porch, her red hair a dark contrast against the white gold of her skin and the pale ivory of her gown. She's aetheric in the moon and aurora lights.

"I hope you finished your brandy before the glass fell."

His neck grows warm with embarrassment.

"Is that how you knew I was there?"

Leara's coy smile was her only answer. Yes, then. Well.

"Ulfric Stormcloak proposed to you." "Yes, he did." "And you turned him down." "Yes, I did. " "Why . . ."

Her hand was on the side of his face. She was perhaps a hairsbreadth taller than him, maybe an inch, but her hand felt so small against his face that Tullius couldn't help but reach up and clasp it with his own for fear that it slip away.

"I thought you were eavesdropping." "Well, I wouldn't say that–" "And, therefore, would know why I turned Ulfric down."

Tullius tries to swallow, but his throat is tight. Leara's hand is cool against his skin, and he takes comfort in that.

"You love me." "Yes, I do."

Her smile is radiant.

Tullius's hand slips from Leara's, but then his arms are around her waist, pulling her into him. She is slim and cool and everything a flower in winter might be. He buries his nose in her neck, amidst the frost and flowers.

"I love you."

She doesn't reply. She only tightens her arms around his torso. They stand there in the quiet of the night, away from the celebrations but togehter under the stars.

Later, when Tullius returns to Solitude for the last time, he packs his things for the return to the Imperial City. He takes his bags to the docks.

And there Leara is waiting for him, Lydia her housecarl in tow. She smiles at him, full and vivid.

"You're late. My trunks are already on board. Right, Lydia?"

Lydia rolls her eyes.

"All eleven of them, my Thane."

Tullius chuckles, quiet.

Leara's hand finds his, and he helps her up the gangplank of the Imperial Naval ship. It would be a long voyage, but Leara had never sailed before, so that would be their mode of transportation back to the Imperial City.

"What will we do when we get there?"

Leara's question is teasing and free of the burden of being Dragonborn and peacemaker. There were still the Thalmor to worry about, but after the ruin of Northwatch and the signing of the armistice, Tullius hoped they'd think thrice before going after Leara again.

"I'll buy you expensive teas and you'll drain my accounts on tea and books."

Her giggle rang out amidst the sounds of the ship preparing to leave the harbor.

"Oh yes, that must be why I've gone and married you."

Tullius pulled his wife to his side and slipped his arm around her waist.

"Must be."

It couldn't possibly be that she was the most maddening thing in the world and she drove him mad by proximity.

Madly in love.

What nonsense.

fin

[galedekarios]

i think abt this screen of alton a lot 🖤

[megamanrecut]

Quick Punk art (with bonus Quint)

[f1ghtsoftly]

Im being real I only want to organize with other women but my interest in like passing laws vs direct action is literally zero.

Laws are helpful, but they are ultimately reformist. I think, coming out of the 20th century a major takeaway I had is that women need to build things that cannot be taken away from us (basically separatism). Abortion should have never been a debate, it’s a right, if a government tries to legislate that then it is illegitimate. Women’s work should be paid. Women should run households. No women should be forced to live under constant threat of rape or battery. Sex is about love and connection not about owning someone (or their children). None of these things are complicated. Women understand this reality intuitively. It is men who do not. By asking rather than taking-we in turn legitimate this source of power but, men should not hold power over women. It is illegitimate.

The biggest failure, in my opinion, of second wave feminism in the US is it could not reproduce itself. I agree with Federici’s assessment that “Wages for Housework” (or some variation) is one of the biggest tasks left undone. By and large child production in the US remains a task for the nuclear family, ensuring patriarchy will live on for another generation and another generation of adult women will suffer inside of it. We can remedy this by creating intentional communities of women by women, raising our own wages and collectively supporting each other through family creation and in the workplace.

Furthermore, I really strongly encourage women to stop supporting causes, political movements or organizations that refuse to prioritize women’s issues. This is particularly relevant in the realm of foreign policy. I find it repulsive how many self styled radical feminists turn around and support US imperial projects abroad. We must reshape the way we organize the production of commodities if we are to liberate women. That means *not* supporting the imperialist powers in their quest to secure new markets and create sources of cheap labor+raw materials. Women’s piss poor wages in garment factories in Bangladesh is directly related to the strength of the conservative patriarchy in Bangladesh. Subsistance farmers in Brazil and South Asia need women to produce a large workforce as cheaply as possible, they accomplish this through patriarchal marriage and religion. The US forced it’s way into Eastern Europe to secure new markets and access to raw materials and the looting of the Soviet State saw the largest entrance of women into the sex trade in world history. Im not saying be uncritical about places like Iran, China or Russia, but I am saying be mindful of what exactly the person speaking intends to do about it. Global revolution is different than a proxy war between US+friends, solidarity with striking workers is different than Sanctions and Embargos which starve women and children. NGO’s operate in the interest of their donors, whoever they happen to be. Both horrors can be true and we must develop the capacity to see all of them-so that our intention to help does not untinentionally prolong the suffering of our global sisters. I cannot be more adamant that vigorous opposition to imperialism, vigorous opposition to the US government and her military is the absolute best way those of us living in the west can support women globally.

Many women are fooled by the belief that this is impractical and centering women and demanding real, revolutionary change is hopeless but allow me to ask you this, how many women have lived and died under this current regime? How many women have given their lives, have devoted themselves entirely to women’s advancement? We have made small gains-but it is not nearly commiserate to the effort we have put into achieving them. We are staring down the barrel of a new age, one where women’s bodies can be spliced and sold like pieces of meat. One where religious fundamentalism will remain a dominant global force. One where women can look forward to lives as drudges, whores or wives living with back to back pregnancies, constantly under the boot of men. Is that the world we want? Is that the world women have worked so hard to achieve?

We need a more radical, more prideful strategy befitting our dignity and in line with what we deserve. We deserve so much more than concessions. We deserve freedom and the fruits of our labor.

So please, consider that it is ok for you to be the main character in this story and stop lending your time, support and energy to causes that do not center women’s experiences. I don’t care if you’re “also lgbtq” or also a “poc” or also “colonized”. You’re suffering more than a man is, women deserve to be at the forefront of every single social movement, not a supporting role, a woman unfairly in prison is just as significant as her male counterpart. Lesbians get beat up and preyed on by homophobic men just as much, if not more, then gay men do. Women suffer worse under occupying armies, women suffer worse under sanctions, women suffer worse in post colonial political chaos then men do.

You matter just as much as they do and you need to *leave* if they do not recognize that. You will never lose by recognizing your worth.

[gothicprep]

in my years on this planet, I’ve seen plenty of bad takes across the internet, but that “haiti has limestone” tweet truly breaks new ground for bad takes. i can’t believe someone could type that with a straight face.

[mariocki]

Play for Today: One Bummer News Day (BBC, 1978)

"Ah, good morning to you. Peter Postgate of the Gazette, anything for us? No factory fires? No house fires? Well, what about your district agents? Not even a moggy up a tree? Wow, all right for some, isn't it. Yeah, and you."

[approximately20eggs]

highly recommend staring in the mirror and picking out all the things you like about your appearance. be a little vain about it. imagine how an author would describe you with the most flowery and dramatic language at their disposal. it will do wonders for your mental health I promise

[myrfing]

gourd question 11

THANK YOU (waving as I'm sent down the heavensward dark ride)

11. Were they more sympathetic to the dragons, Ishgardians, neither or both? 

oh god, the dragons. The Spires hunkered down in the Dravanian hinterlands throughout the winter &, I forget if this was from a leve or a FATE, but there are indications that there is literature and graffiti circulating around in that area that is sympathetic to the dragons. He starts off being extremely baffled at Ishgard's...for lack of a better word extreme dehumanization of dragons and their revisionism. He never got the full picture until the trip in HW though. on top of that, Yulie of the Spires was a dark knight and whilllee she wasn't from nor did she operate exclusively in Ishgard, and while a drk's struggles aren't necessarily tied to the dragonsong war at all, her master was ishgardian and her contempt of the citystate & it of her was not veiled LMFAOO. He also holds a strong disdain for Ishgard's millitarism and found them very similar to garlean imperials, which of course he has his whole thing about.

It's to the extent that he would have "defected" (never quite saw himself as Of Ishgard) from Ishgard's efforts in the war if he hadn't 1. felt like he owed it to Haurchefant and Alphinaud/Tataru to not like, feed his people to the wolves; and 2nd, he has trouble viewing people as a monolith unless they declare themselves of allegiance to a certain banner...and when he meets the people of the Brume, and before that the prisoners at the outposts, he sees how vastly different "being Ishgardian" is for each person. it is not that he felt sorry for them, but that he just couldn't disregard the reality of their lives.

BUT UHH third is that, because of Ysayle, he got the opportunity to converse with the dragons. if it were not for Vidofnir and for the fact Nidhogg's intent was to prolong the conflict, things stillll could've gone very differently. not that there was any way to "do it clean" as it were (and as ysayle learned), but if nidhogg's intent was to soley wipe out the high houses, the clergy, the ward, and the pope, and reclaim Ratatoskr's eye, he probably still would have thrown in his lot with him after the dialogue with hraesvelgr and would've left estinien to go get cooked alone LOL. that also meant he was willing to betray house fortemps for this. he was very quiet about all of this and estinien did not know at alllll because he would have hated him. in fact he still doesn't know LMFAOOOOO.

he never quite feels at home in ishgard even when edmont is like You are like son to me 2. he didn't say shit

[xariarte]

ok it all makes sense now 💀

[slyandthefamilybook]

מלחמה גוררת מלחמה

This does not end in violence

[vtopiia]

Title: No Service

Show/Movie: {Original}

Genre: Thriller, Horror

Cast: Amalia ; played by Melissa Barrera | Javier ; played by Danny Ramirez | Aleksander ; played by David Krumholtz | Carter ; played by Mason Gooding | Sofia ; played by Jenna Ortega | Carlos ; played by Oscar Isaac | Louise ; played by Sophie Nélisse | Beatrice ; played by Matilda Lutz | Alison ; played by Victoria Pedretti | Malcolm ; played by Hamish Linklater

Writing stages:

Plot? I have the intentions of the ‘bad guys’ understood, and the general gist, I’m just working on the specifics

Outline? nothing, but i think i know the format of what i’m going to do

Anything actually written? not yet

Posted?

Edit count? 7 already made, 3 currently in the works

Current focus? Yes (but between you and me I’m fighting off the urge to get distracted)

Plot details: (that I wish to disclose)

[ I’ll fill this in asp soon- ]

[mariacallous]

It has been nearly 50 years since the United States moved away from drafting members into military service. Since the Vietnam War ended, an all-volunteer force has kept America safe at home and abroad. During this period, volunteer numbers for military service have seen ups and downs, but recent reports indicate we may be near a historical low point for interest in military service.

Although some services report more significant challenges in recruiting than others, all need help to recruit enough members to sustain active duty and reserve numbers. The Army is the worst off, missing its fiscal year 2022 recruiting goal by 25%, and may need to cut its overall force size by 10,000 personnel in 2023 due to a lack of accessions. The Navy did better, falling short by only several hundred personnel. The Air Force and Marine Corps met 2022 numbers but only by dipping into pools of deferred candidates who would have typically entered service in 2023, putting both services at a deficit to start the new year. Compounding all of this is the fact that Reserve and National Guard forces, which augment the active-duty force, are also struggling to recruit.

With little intervention, numbers will decrease even more due to the lack of qualified candidates willing to volunteer for military service. Fewer qualified candidates will have significant implications for national security and fixing the problem will require significant changes.

The time to act is now, and there are two options. One is instituting nationally required service, like in other countries worldwide. Service could take several forms, from compulsory military service, akin to previous drafts, to compulsory civil service, with military service being one option. While national service of any form should be encouraged, two data points should lead us away from the required service option. Periods when the United States forced people into military service during previous conflicts, and the impacts on both the military forces and the public’s support of the military, should cause concern. To be clear, many Americans drafted into the military served honorably and rightfully deserved recognition from a grateful nation but never received it in some cases. However, sending military members compelled to serve into harm’s way is much different from sending people that are volunteering to serve.

Second, it would be unwise not to take notice of the recent challenges on the battlefield and domestically in Russia, as Russians are forced into military service in Ukraine. Although direct comparisons between the United States and Russia are challenging and each situation unique, people could expect comparable results with forced military service in any country. From a practical standpoint, compulsory military service is extremely likely to have significant pushback from the general population, become highly divisive, and is unlikely to be implemented nationally. Should the United States be involved in a major war, reinstating the draft may be necessary. Short of total war, the all-volunteer force, which has ensured safety and prosperity for the past 50 years, should be maintained at all costs.

We must revamp military accessions and recruiting based on practicality and necessary force effectiveness. With only 25% of the target population for military service able to meet accession standards, the services compete with each other and private industry for the same talent. There are two ways to address this issue: either change the requirements so more people are eligible or make more people able to meet the requirements. Pursue both in short order.

To be clear, do not lower the standards arbitrarily to increase accessions. However, the military services should more frequently review the standards. Examples of this include the Navy recently raising its age limit and the Air Force revisiting if a failed drug test is an ultimate disqualifier. In both cases, current dismissed candidates could become viable candidates with additional screening. Adjusting the standards in both directions should be an ongoing process.

The military has historically relied upon available eligible candidates and has not done much to make candidates eligible. This approach no longer works, and a key component to saving the all-volunteer force will be finding ways to make ineligible candidates who still want to volunteer become eligible. Body weight and aptitude are two areas where motivated candidates with help have now met the requirements through the Army’s Future Soldiers Preparatory Course, a pilot pre-boot camp course designed to address these issues. The services must consider these added costs for an all-volunteer force with volunteers in short supply.

Initial assessments of the Army initiative are positive, and expanding this program should be done nationally. The Department of Defense could run this program more efficiently than having every service run a separate program. Successful graduates would still proceed to service-specific accession points. For members facing body weight issues, implementing a program through a national fitness chain using in-person or virtual coaching might also reduce costs associated with housing and transportation.

A significant impact of the pandemic diminished access to potential recruits and the visibility of recruiters in the community. High schools and public gatherings closed or moved to virtual environments, making it harder for recruiters to attend school and community events. Rebuilding recruiting networks will require additional time, resources, personnel, and access to high schools, colleges, and public gatherings. The COVID-19 restrictions have eased, but all the services appear slow to send more recruiters to the field and open more recruiting offices. Recruiters need more locations than they currently have. If the nearest recruiting office is an hour away, it will impede recruiters from connecting with communities and building quality relationships. Overcoming this will require more people in the field and more field offices. One solution could be having Guard, Reserve, and active duty service branches in the same offices and establishing more recruiting centers driving down overall costs.

While GI Bill benefits are a tremendous incentive for military service, many private entities are now offering education assistance to their employees. GI Bill benefits do little for potential recruits who have already incurred student loans before joining the military. The Navy offers up to $65,000 in student loan repayments for new recruits. The other services could follow this approach. Enlistment bonuses are up to $50,000 in some cases, which may help get more volunteers interested in military service, but this cannot be the long-term solution to military recruiting challenges.

Military recruiters must find new ways to market the benefits of military service better. Historically, this involved recruiting videos and posters appealing to a sense of adventure and camaraderie. We should not completely abandon this approach. However, the benefits the military recruiters must emphasize are medical care, educational opportunities, and the blended retirement system’s post-service financial benefits, short of full military retirement. People care about these things, which have been historically underappreciated in our society and not marketed well.

In 2019, Congress granted the service secretaries the authority to award career credit to highly qualified civilians and enable lateral entry into service as a mid-grade officer. Each service will approach this authority differently by the nature of its differing missions. However, the lateral entry initiative illustrates the types of solutions and flexibility necessary to address the current recruiting challenges.

Last, the military services should, in parallel, look at ways to retain more members in the service, both active and reserve. These are members who have already volunteered and in whom the United States has invested significant resources to train and equip. Every member who remains in the service decreases the need for new recruits and defers the cost of training a recruit. The most vivid example of this “recruit and replace” model is the Marine Corps, which annually discharges roughly 75% of first-term enlistment Marines, driving a yearly recruiting goal of more than 30,000 personnel for a 172,000-person force.

Making continued service more attractive is difficult, as no single issue causes members to leave the military. While recent 2022 midyear housing allowance adjustments and 2023 pay raises are helpful, more than pay alone is needed to win the retention battle. The military must also continue efforts to improve housing, provide childcare, address sexual assault, and make educational benefits more accessible. Initiatives acknowledging evolving demographics and generational expectations through extended parental leave, offering career intermission options, and reduced frequency of military moves also deserve consideration. There is much that can be done to improve military service satisfaction by reducing time consuming administrative burdens, decreasing cumbersome procurement requirements, and facilitating easier access to family and medical care. Although hard to quantify, these issues go a long way in improving quality of life and giving members more reasons to join or stay in the military. Military and civilian leaders at all levels impact recruiting and retention and now is the time for bold action to save and sustain the all-volunteer force.