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plinko-mori · 1 year

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+100 Reasons Why I Love Ougai Mori

There are more but I'm too lazy to share them all

Original idea from sigma.analysis on Instagram!

Spoilers from manga, some light novels... And more

Of course this will be full of my personal opinion

Warning: Long post

Now let's start with the reasons!

1) He shares last name with an actress of a telenovela I love so much (Rubí, Bárbara Mori)

2) His voice (Latin Spanish, English and Japanese)

3) His smirks

4) His hairstyles

5) He knows what he wants

6) His ability, it's great and raises so many questions:

How free is Elise really? Does Elise know where she comes from and the abilities in general? How did Mori discovered his ability? And etc–

7) He is so smart, sad that people sometimes forget it

8) He is SO grey and questionable as a character → his morals, his way of being...

9) His calm energy

10) He can fight and defend himself without Elise

11) He can be scary when he wants to (example: that scene with Lucy)

12) He is so rational and realistic

13) How he changes his mood in one second to the next

14) He's hot (for me)

15) He got me into reading the works from the in real life author

16) His character and ability are GREAT references of works from the in real life author and his life

17) Now Rintarou Mori is my favorite writer thanks to him (as I said in reason 15, the character got me to reading about Rintarou)

18) Ougai is aware of the things he has done

19) ↑ And has a such and acidic and cruel attitude about the barbarities he has done that I love and hate so much

20) His knowledge of medicine and anatomy is frightening and wonderful in a weird way

21) He's so tall compared to me, I love taller people than me sorry (I'm 148 cm tall)

22) He gave me the lesson that a good leader doesn't have to be necessary a good person, and a good person doesn't have to be necessary a good leader

23) He is so badass

24) How similar he is compared to Chuuya's biological dad

25) The "Absolutely no chance!" with Fukuzawa and the punch

26) One of my highest kinnies

27) The way he was introduced in the chapter with Lucy

28) His first appearance with Elise and candle

29) ↑ I still was surprised when Mori goes to a place aND BOOM PORT MAFIA MEMBERS–

30) His pose with the hands supremacy

31) Okay but his attitude with Taneda (poor Ango)

32) His panels drawn by Hoshikawa-sensei

33) His laugh

34) He made a motherfucking big plan which Oda ends up dying and everything fOR A TINY (important) ENVELOPE– He thinks in everything!

35) Amazing antagonist

No, I don't think he's a villain

Yes, I'm too lazy to explain it here

36) The fact that Mori makes Elise disobeys when he wants her to do it even if that makes me want to cry

37) He is so clingy and cloying that I love knowing I'm not the only person like that

38) He's not obsessed with children because he's a pedo and I love that

He stuck himself between wanting to mentor the younger generation to help them grow into their potential and throwing everyone's emotions and desires (including his own) out the window in favour of the """optimal solution"""

He's not a pedo... He just has a weird obsession-favoritism with 12 year old girls and younger

That I can explain it to you using: Works from Ougai, Genetics, Society, Comparing 4 cases with Mori interacting with people + Elise...

39) He is like Perry The Platypus

«Weird old man?

OUGAI MORI THE PORT MAFIA BOSS WEIRD OLD MAN!?»

40) Hard to believe or not, the character helped me a lot to understand myself, comprehend my attitude and accept myself (as a walking red flag) when I was going through a rough time

I was really like "OMG NO I'M NOT LIKE MORI STOP–" and now I'm "Yeah I'm tiny Mori" that's character development my bois

41) He got my attention and I want to know about Thomas Schelling, John Forbes Nash and Henry Kissinger

42) His beautiful messy dark hair

43) How different he is with people and how he is with Elise, I find it so cute (and sad)

44) "Tell me Dazai, why is it your wish to die?" That chat was amazing

45) How different he looks compared to the in real life author

46) How observant and analytical he is

47) He helped Atsushi when he could get out of Lucy's ability by himself!

48) His soft smile when Chuuya accepts his vision of leadership and pledges his loyalty to him

49) In Yosano's backstory and Dazai's backstory... Mori did the same error and didn't learn a shit, you are amazing old man (mockery)

50) Dude how can you project yourself on Dazai and teach him manipulation? You did bad but you taught him many things that ended up helping him– But how can you project yourself in him???

51) I have SO many theories about Mori that I loved doing: His past and reasons why he is like that, why he projected himself on Dazai, why Elise is a child, etc... And his relationship with Natsume

52) I make so many content about him exploring fanon and canon Mori! OCs that either have a good relationship with him or have traumas with him, there's no in between

Some headcanons, random scenarios, etc

53) He's a drama queen sometimes, that's amazing

54) Wan Mori is my mood and my friends are really like Wan Dazai damn [sob]

55) He looks so ugly sometimes I love him

56) He's a (sadistic) doctor but I'm sure he made more damage than healing (that's the thing a doctor does). I'm completely sure of (and love) that irony of the character

57) His friendship with Kouyou

58) His chat with Ozaki after the things with Kyouka was sad for me

He really thought "Hey, this girl has nothing to bind her to the mafia, she's sure to leave, she can do it" but Ozaki chose to stay, to help him. Mori was so honest, didn't hide his emotions and was truly happy to hear that she was going to stay, such an emotional and relatable moment for me

I will not go deep on the dialogue, just the emotions

In the manga it was first a shock scene, just shock... I would say even distrustful of her words

But then his smile was very soft, nodding, maybe proud of the fact that Ozaki feels comfortable in the mafia after he became the leader

In the anime it was the same but with a sad expression, there was more melancholy in his words, his facial expression...

And that's why I cry a lot with that scene

59) He loves the city, he wants to protect it so much even if that's really hard to see...

Aww cute thing of the old man

60) His organization means so much for him, the PM is more than "a group of people" to him, I love how he takes care of them, how he seeks, acts and does everything possible for their wellness

Also he's really like «My bois, my people, I want the best of you but please don't act like idiots when I'm not looking– Omg you're just doing it! Damn I will fix everything because this is a disaster, and I hate disasters»

61) Just the fact, only the fact, that he throws everyone's emotions and desires (including his own) out the window in favour of the """optimal solution"""

62) He is aware to the fact that Osamu is superior to him in some things (predict future actions and be many steps ahead compared to the rest) and he accepts it

Ougai (in my point of view) is just irritated that he doesn't have Dazai at his side to use him, but he leaves it that way, he sees his reality, and accepts it but hates it a lot

63) “But doesn't Mori want to have him back to his side?”

Yes, as I said, he is irritated, accepts but hate that fact. He doesn't like it when when things are TOO far out his control, he is stubborn, he is "human" despite being a bastard

64) I appreciate that he kept his promise to Chuuya, Ougai REALLY GAVE HIM THE DOCUMENTS after he became executive when he could easily hide them from Nakahara to the end

Mori did good there, he kept his promise

65) I support that he dislikes dirty things, raw food and mackerel in miso–

SAME MORI SAME

66) One thing that MUST be appreciated:

Even of the traumas, how "evil" Port Mafia is, how bad is Mori, etc– He gives people with no home a place they belong to and where they are accepted

He created a whole good atmosphere for his people you know??? Dude they look comfy there, they don't desperately want to leave the organization (at least most of them, I'm not counting Kyouka and Dazai at all) and they are able to consider themselves a family, see the PM as a home, that is incredible. How close Black Lizard are, Chuuya and Ozaki, Ozaki and Mori, etc

67) He treats people in SUCH different ways I love it

68) He doesn't treat people with the same level of empathy, that's great and so normal... The not-normal thing about his empathy is how he traumatizes people but I'm talking in a people-in-the-real-world context

69) This panel:

How he looks at Natsume

70) He reminds me of many songs from my favorite band! (Set It Off) Such as Duality, Peekaboo, Skeleton... And more

But specially Skeleton

71) Compared to other characters I love: Idc if people hate him, it's great! Mori is a bastard, I don't have problems if you hate him until you obligate me to also hate him

I don't mind if you insult him, when some friends do that I join them because OMG HE DESERVES THOSE WORDS. But go on, hate him, I will not obligate you to love him because it's good that you hate him, just don't obligate me to hate him

72) He's a bastard BUT I STILL LOVE HIM– That thing is really weird in me, right Hisoka from Hunter X Hunter and Adam from SK8? /jk

Okay but actually compared to the rest, I love more Ougai because he's better compared to them

73) He makes the Port Mafia being the less bad option in awful scenarios

74) He also makes HIMSELF the less bad option in awful scenarios

75) How he saw Yosano fall to pieces in front of him because of his own words

That wasn't manipulation, he was literally hurting her because he wanted to...

That's a very shock scene and his face of "I don't give a fuck" omg I love this but hate myself of me liking that

I personally think that he said those things to hurt her on purpose for her to act in a way and/or affect the rest of the ADA that was there

76) He has beautiful eyes (anime)

77) This weird feeling-theory of him wanting to die...

Like dude why do you focus on you dying because of Dazai? Why do you keep torturing Yosano, you know she will end up doing something to you right? You really want that? You want to get hurt that badly? To die?

78) He is REALLY happy in Beast, not fake emotions there

79) Okay in Beast he offered emotional support to a lost teenager by LITERALLY offering to be his dad (+ expressed his past will to save another lost teenager)

AAWWWW MORI I LOVE U

80) He took over a shitty orphanage and made it good in Beast...

Same character, the only differences is where he is + he's 2 years younger

81) His weird "monologues" (like that scene of chess about Aku)

82) Elise treating him like trash, that's amazing AND sad because she has something of him, she's HIS ability! Dude do you see yourself as a trash that hard?

83) He wanted to catch Atsushi to gain the money AND NOT TO KILL HIM, dude that's nice, he didn't want to kill him

84) He isn't afraid of taking innocent lives to increase the Port Mafia's own benefit

85) He has cooperated with ADA <3 (his "enemy")

86) He doesn't punish Ryonosuke even if he disobeys lot of orders. Mori values his skills and contributions to the organization even if he does something that has nothing to do with what he was ordered to do

87) His eyes in the manga are drawing in different (and beautiful) ways... There's the normal ones, the "just black" (like, really just black or similar to black) and darker but not black...

And many shades–

88) A survivor to a war, THE GREAT WAR

89) No matter how high is the risk, Ougai takes that risk and even goes far as to raise the stakes

90) How he made Dazai feel true shock with Q, I love that panel

91) Has the same blood type as me (O)

92) His parallels with Mikoto Souh and Reisi Munakata (leaders of OPPOSING organizations) from K Project

93) Okay but he in the ops–

94) He sees many things as a chess game and how compared to me, chess doesn't give him anxiety

95) He shares birthday with other of my favourite characters, Kajii Motojirou!

96) He's a really mysterious character, we only know a little part of his past... Which is why I do theories about him, yes

97) How we don't know if he knows about Ryonosuke's illness

98) He sucks in throwing darts

99) Literally wrote a message to enemies using CRAYONS

100) I like to understand at least most of the character's mind and mimic him easily!

101) ↑ I also love helping friends with that, it feels amazing

102) We have seen few of his real emotions because most of the time he hides them or fakes them

103) Bro what did he do to Kyouka so only his presence could make her panic?

And Kouyou knows that???? Hi??? I need answers

104) Thank you for sending Kajii and make him do chaos in a boat/yacht/whatever, that was an amazing idea

105) When Mori got sick being close to death, the Port Mafia knowing that killing Fukuzawa could save him, went for that alternative immediately without thinking any consequences...

They love their boss I'm gonna cry

106) He knows the ADA aren't terrorists

107) His weird old doctor clothes

108) His weird dracula leader of the Port Mafia clothes

109) His uniform at the military

110) No trembling, second thoughts or second-guessing and the moment to kill someone (like poor Tachihara's brother)

111) The way in which he uses and attacks with scalpels

112) His hair is easy to draw for me

113) I want to give a hug to this man, dude aren't you stressed at the mafia???

Aren't you tired of people and your ability treating you like trash??? About all of your responsibilities???? You need a rest old man

114) Even if I don't shipp them: The parallels of Kouyou and Mori with Chuuya's biological parents. "Oh, I didn't tell you I'm from the army?" omg they are so close

115) How he scared Tachihara, that hat scene was amazing HE ACTED SO NORMALLY–

116) He always knew about the spies in his organization and let them have close relationships with other members, Ango is a loyal person himself, while Tachihara is now the most loyal member to the mafia, more than Chuuya...

Mori why??? Stop, you are torturing them–

117) His shock in the manga about Francis knowing where the Port Mafia was

118) His chat with Hirotsu about the previous leader

119) Changing his mood from one second to the next

120) There are great AMVs about him in YouTube! (not the shipps ones)

121) When Mori manipulates, he doesn't lie

He gives SOME parts of the information, he strategizes very carefully when, how and where he will reveal information to people

122) He earns Kouyou's royalty by being a better boss than the old boss

123) He earns Chuuya's loyalty by being a better leader with advice to give

124) He almost gets what he wants in return

125) He wanted Fukuzawa to died instead of him (cannibalism arc) because of 2 reasons: Ougai new that his organization would be mad about AND do stupid (destroy) things because of that

He knows them so well–

126) After what Paul did to the mafia, killing some members (Flags), Mori still helped him, hides him from the government aND MADE HIM AN EXECUTIVE-

That's so nice Mori

127) He is IMPORTANT in BSD Beast, the story without his scene hits different you know?

128) The way he manipulates, the way he uses words, the actions he does, how he sees it like a chess game– And he's so calm about it the fuck

129) His different types of smiles I swear

130) He used Ace as a tool because of his money LMAOOOOO

131) LITERALLY has a 3D version

That cosplayer supremacy 🛐

132) He makes mistakes, he isn't perfect, ignoring how he did the same mistake with both Yosano and Dazai, for example: Mori, sweetie, you didn't have to leave Ace in charge of Fyodor, that was a TERRIBLE idea

133) The theory from @/videogamelover99 about Mori related to the Arahabaki project

Specially the real-life connections

134) How Homra Daikazoku fits him and the Port Mafia a lot not only because of the meaning of the song, also because of the context with Homra in K Project

135) I love his ease in sacrificing several of his "pieces" in order to double or triple the damage to his enemy

136) Dude please stop enjoying the fact of people around you fearing you a lot 'cause I'm starting to envy your self-esteem or questionable thoughts as to be SO comfortable with that

137) He takes really serious to keep the balance in Yokohama

138) Vita Sexualis requires strength and energy...

And he uses it MOST of the time wow– How does he do that????

139) I can't say anything of his obsessive AND possessive personality because I'm the same–

Feel ya old man but pls stop

140) His first designs omg

141) I hate dogs, I dislike them a lot but damn I would be his dog and be "WOOF WOOF BARK BARK"

I simp him that hard damn

142) He's one of the few characters that I actually have memorized his voice (without counting seiyuus), the other ones are Undertaker (Kuroshitsuji), Izumo Kusanagi (K Project) and Cherry Blossom (SK8)

143) You can see how times go by on his face, he's physically different from his past self and it shows, specially in his wrinkles

144) This theory in about abuse chain, Akutagawa-Dazai, Dazai-Mori AND (@/amethystroselily) Mori-Natsume

145) "It's necessary to hit the enemy's vital point in one strike"

146) Ougai gives me the same vibes as Vita Sexualis protagonist, daddy and mommy issues + similar personalities you know?

147) "The leader of an organization is at the pinnacle of that organization and, at the same time, he is its slave. The leader must be more than willing to commit any atrocity in order to ensure the organization's survival"

148) THE WAYS KAJII CALLS HIM: Grand Marshal of Outer Space, Outer-space Marshal, Grand Marchal of Space

149) He calls his members by "kun" EXCEPT for Hirotsu, I love that detail

150) Changing his mood from one second to the next

151) "I like this city, its dark, seedier parts included... But parasites like you nauseate me" [dies]

152) The way Elise calls him, I feel sorry for him and laugh at how she insults Mori so much

153) Thank you for giving Arthur a home

154) Thank you for doing exams on Arthur because of his cold because you were worried

155) Love how Ougai can't control Verlaine and take him out if the Port Mafia's basement

156) His "Sakunosuke Oda is risking his life to eliminate a troublesome, violeny group. It's a win-win situation. So why are you so angry?" 'cause he's as blind as me, not all the people don't have problems about ignoring our own emotions–

157) In Stormbringer he was in a place far far away really safe AND OMG THAT CALL WAS AMAZING specially the part like "Oh yes, I can see everything of what's happening" LMAOOOOOO

158) Similar to the author, I have a weird mix of feelings: When I read the author's works (Hanako, Kinka, The Dancing Girl, for giving some examples) I'm in shock, amazed, curious and THE SAME happens with Ougai Mori from BSD

159) He's my blorbo: My favorite character that I can't stop thinking about him, I can't shut up when talking about him and I can't explain how he makes me feel

160) I did many things thanks to the character:

Read the manga, based on that I continue reading things related to BSD, accounts of theories, analysis, I meet people, an ex friend, some close friends I really love a lot...

Because of my fanaticism for him, my life change for better, Ougai and BSD makes me happy, and that's the biggest reason of why I love him

#sorry i can't shut up about my blorbo #blorbo #blorbo from my shows #bsd mori #mori ougai #bsd ougai mori #ougai mori #mori analysis #kinda #bungou stray dogs #bsd #bsd ogai mori #100 reasons why #100 reasons why i love bsd #100 reasons why i love mori

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ghelgheli · 7 months

Text

The Stuff I Read in September 2023

Stuff I Extra Liked Is Bold

Books

Orphans of the Sky, Robert A. Heinlein

Starship Troopers, Robert A. Heinlein

Revenant Gun, Yoon Ha Lee

All Systems Red, Martha Wells

Artificial Condition, Martha Wells

Rogue Protocol, Martha Wells

Exit Strategy, Martha Wells

Friendship Poems, ed. Peter Washington

Introduction to Linear Algebra, ch. 1-3, Gilbert Strang

Manga (mostly yuri [really all yuri])

Yagate Kimi ni Naru / Bloom Into You, Nio Nakatani

Kaketa Tsuki to Dōnattsu / Doughnuts Under a Crescent Moon, Shio Usui

Onna Tomodachi to Kekkon Shitemita / Trying Out Marriage With My Female Friend, Shio Usui

Kimi no Tame ni Sekai wa Aru / The World Exists for You, Shio Usui

Teiji ni Agaretara / If We Leave on the Dot, Ayu Inui

Nikurashii Hodo Aishiteru / I Love You So Much I Hate You, Ayu Inui

Tsukiatte Agetemo Ī Kana / How Do We Relationship? Tamifull

Himegoto - Juukyuusai no Seifuku / Uniforms at the Age of Nineteen, Ryou Minenami

Colorless Girl, Honami Shirono

Short Fiction

It gets so lonely here, ebi-hime [itch.io]

Aye, and Gomorrah, Samuel R. Delaney [strange horizons]

Evolutionary Game Theory

Red Queen and Red King Effects in cultural agent-based modeling: Hawk Dove Binary and Systemic Discrimination, S. M. Amadae & Christopher J. Watts [doi]

The Evolution of Social Norms, H. Peyton Young [doi]

The Checkerboard Model of Social Interaction, James Sakoda [doi]

Dynamic Models of Segregation, Thomas C. Schelling [doi]

Towards a Unified Science of Cultural Evolution, Alex Mesoudi, Andrew Whiten, Kevin N. Laland [doi]

Is Human Cultural Evolution Darwinian? Alex Mesoudi, Andrew Whiten, Kevin N. Laland [doi]

Gender/Sexuality/Queer Stuff (up to several degrees removed)

Re-orienting Desire: The Gay International and the Arab World, Joseph Massad [link]

The Empire of Sexuality, Joseph Massad (interview) [link]

The Bare Bones of Sex, Anne Fausto-Sterling [jstor]

On the Biology of Sexed Subjects, Helen Keane & Marsha Rosengarten [doi]

Vacation Cruises: Or, the Homoerotics of Orientalism, Joseph A. Boone [jstor]

Romancing the Transgender Native: Rethinking the Use of the “Third Gender” Concept, Evan B. Towle & Lynn M. Morgan [doi]

Scientific Racism and the Emergence of the Homosexual Body, Siobhan Somerville [jstor]

White Sexual Imperialism: A Theory of Asian Feminist Jurisprudence, Sunny Woan [link]

Haunted by the 1990s: Queer Theory’s Affective Histories, Kadji Amin [jstor]

Annoying Anthro

The Sexual Division of Labor, Rebecca B. Bird, Brian F. Codding [researchgate]

Factors in the Division of Labor by Sex: A Cross-Cultural Analysis, George P. Murdock & Caterina Provost [jstor]

Biosocial Construction of Sex Differences and Similarities in Behavior, Wendy Wood & Alice H. Eagly [doi]

Political Theory

Some critics argue that the Internal Colony Theory is outdated. Here’s why they’re wrong, Patrick D. Anderson [link]

Toward a New Theory of Internal Colonialism, Charles Pinderhughes [link]

The Anatomy of Iranian Racism: Reflections on the Root Causes of South Azerbaijans Resistance Movement, Alireza Asgharzadeh [link]

The veil or a brother's life: French manipulations of Muslim women's images during the Algerian War, 1954–62, Elizabeth Perego [doi]

A Difficulty in the Concept of Social Welfare, Kenneth J. Arrow [jstor]

Manipulation of Voting Schemes: A General Result, Allan Gibbard [jstor]

China Has Billionaires, Roderic Day [redsails]

Other

Conversations I Can't Have, Cassandra Byers Harvin [proquest]

Earth system impacts of the European arrival and Great Dying in the Americas after 1492, Alexander Koch et al. [doi]

Why prisons are not “The New Asylums”, Liat Ben-Moshe [doi]

Uses of Value Judgments in Science: A General Argument, with Lessons from a Case Study of Feminist Research on Divorce, Elizabeth Anderson [doi]

Boundary Issues, Lily Scherlis [link]

#reading prog #can you tell i've been depression-reading yuri #these categories are so janky a lot of the yuri is technically short fiction the murderbot series is novelettes etc. etc.#also murderbot is yuri

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europeanmusicals · 1 year

Note

Do you know of any Euro musical productions besides Rebecca going on in Jan-March 2023?

I'm trying to plan a vacation lol, anywhere in Europe would go

TIA!

Alright this isn't going to be a full list because I'm sure I can't find them all but I've done my best. I've decided to make this a list of all musicals in Europe for all of 2023, so that everyone might find this useful (that's code for I love making lists and got carried away).

Musicals in Europe in 2023

2022.12.10 Listed alphabetically by country and then by opening date. Countries listed below are Austria, England, France, Germany, Italy, The Netherlands, Russia, Spain, Switzerland. Click 'keep reading' to see the list.

Edit 2022.12.11: added some more musical in Austria, The Netherlands and Russia. Sources to websites where I found this information and where you can book tickets are now at the bottom of the list. Sorry they weren’t added originally, I made the original list at 1am.

Edit 2022.12.11: added performances at the open-air theatre in Tecklenburg, Germany.

Edit: 2022.12.12 added more shows for Switzerland, Netherlands, Germany, Ireland, Scotland, Wales and France.

Edit: 2022.12.15 i can’t keep up with all the asks telling me to add things to the list. please see this tag (european musicals in 2023) to see asks telling me about more shows, but i don’t have the time to keep sourcing and adding them to this list anymore.

Austria

Rebecca das Musical - Vienna, Raimund Theater September 9th 2022 - TBD Cast: Nienke Latten (Ich), Mark Seibet (Maxim de Winter), Willemijn Verkaik (Mrs Danvers), Boris Pfeifer (Jack Favell), Ana Milva Gomes (Mrs Van Hopper), James Park (Frank Crawly), Annemieke van Dam (Beatrice/Alt Mrs Danvrs), Aris Sas (Ben)

The Hunchback of Notre Dame (Disney) - Vienna, Ronacher November 10th 2022 - TBD Cast: Abla Alaoui (Esmerelda), David Jakobs (Quasimodo), Dominik Hees (Phoebus), Andreas Lichtenberger (Frollo), Mathias Schlung (Clopin)

My Fair Lady - Vienna, Volksoper December 14th 2022 - January 10th 2023 Cast: Juliette Khalil (Eliza Doolittle), Axel Herrig (Henry Higgins)

Catch Me if You Can - Linz, Landestheater Linz December 14th 2022 - June 3rd 2023

Anastasia - Linz, Landestheater Linz December 15th 2022 -

Hedwig and the Angry Inch - Vienna, Das Vindobona January 9th 2023 - January 29th 2023 Cast: Drew Sarich (Hedwig), Anna Mandrella (Yitzhak)

Lady in the Dark - Vienna, Volksoper January 26th 2023 - February 22nd 2023 Cast: TBD

Funny Girl - Baden, Stadttheater/Bühne Baden January 28th 2023 - March 25th 2023 Cast: Johanna Arrouas (Fanny Brice), Thomas Weissengruber (Nick Arnstein)

Natasha, Pierre and the Great Comet of 1812 - Linz, Landestheater Linz February 11th 2023 - June 17th 2023

Anatevka - Vienna, Volksoper February 23rd 2022 - March 31st 2023 Cast: TBD

Jesus Christ Superstar - Vienna, Raimund Theater March 31st 2023 - April 10th 2023 (Concert version) Cast: Drew Sarich (Jesus)

The Sound of Music - Vienna, Volksoper April 1st 2023 - May 1st 2023 Cast: TBD

Fun Home - Linz, Landestheater Linz April 13th 2023 - May 22nd 2023

Cabaret - Vienna, Volksoper May 5th 2023 - May 14th 2023 Cast: TBD

The Wizard of Oz (Arlen/Webber) - Vienna, Volksoper May 17th 2023 - June 25th 2023 Cast: TBD

Elisabeth das Musical - Vienna, Schloss Schönbrunn June 29th 2023 - July 1st 2023 (Open air concert) Maya Hakvoort (Elisabeth), Mark Seibert (Der Tod)

Cabaret - Baden, Stadttheater/Bühne Baden July 7th 2023 - August 25th 2023 Cast: Anna Mandrella (Sally Boweles), Drew Sarich (Emcee), René Rumpold (Herr Schultz), Maya Hakvoort (Fraulein Schneider), Alexander Donesh (Cliff), Iva Schell (Fraulein Kost), Jan Walter (Ernst Ludwig)

Dirty Dancing - Linz, Landestheater Linz July 11th 2023 - August 6th 2023

England (West End & UK Tours)

Les Misérables - London, Sondheim Theatre October 8th 1985 - TBD

The Phantom of the Opera - London, Her Majesty's Theatre October 9th 1986 - TBD

Mamma Mia! - London, Novello Theatre April 6th 1999 - September 30th 2023

The Lion King - London, Lyceum Theatre October 19th 1999 - TBD

Wicked - London, Apollo Victoria Theatre September 27th 2006 - TBD

Matilda - London, Cambridge Theatre October 25th 2011 - December 17th 2023

The Book of Mormon - London, Prince of Wales Theatre February 25th 2013 - March 18th 2023

Hamilton - London, Victoria Palace Theatre December 21st 2017 - September 30th 2023

Tina (The Tuna Turner Musical) - London, Aldwych April 17th 2018 - July 11th 2023

Six - London, Vaudeville Theatre January 17th 2019 - TBD

Only Fools and Horses: The Musical - London, Theatre Royal Haymarket February 9th 2019 - April 1st 2023

Mary Poppins - London, Prince Edward Theatre November 13th 2019 - January 8th 2023

& Juliet - London, Shaftesbury Theatre November 20th 2019 - March 25th 2023

Come From Away - London, Phoenix Theatre January 19th 2019 - January 7th 2023

Jersey Boys - London, Trafalgar Theatre July 18th 2021 - April 30th 2023

Pretty Woman - London, Savoy Theatre July 19th 2021 - April 2nd 2023

Frozen - London, Theatre Royal Drury Lane August 27th 2021 - March 26th 2023

Back to the Future - London, Adelphi Theatre September 13th 2021 - February 12th 2023

Get Up, Stand Up! The Bob Marley Musical - London, Lyric Theatre October 1st 2021 - January 8th 2023

Moulin Rouge! - London, Piccadilly Theatre November 12th 2021 - April 15th 2023

Cabaret - London, Kit Kat Club at the Playhouse Theatre November 15th 2021 - December 16th 2023

Heathers - London, The Other Palace Theatre November 25th 2021 - February 18th 2023

Bonnie and Clyde - London, Garrick Theatre March 4th 2022 - May 20th 2023

The Witches of Oz - London, The Vaults Theatre September 19th 2022 - January 14th 2023

Hex - London, Olivier Theatre November 26th 2022 - January 14th 2023

Newsies - London, Troubadour Wembley Park Theatre November 29th 2022 - April 16th 2023

Mandela - London, Young Vic November 29th 2022 - February 4th 2023

Bugsy Malone - London, Alexandra Palace December 3rd 2022 - January 15th 2023

The Rocky Horror Show - UK Tour January 3rd 2023 - September 2nd 2023

Fisherman's Friends - UK Tour January 31st 2023 - May 30th 2023

Jersey Boys - UK Tour January 10th 2023 - May 6th 2023

Sister Act - UK Tour January 11th 2023 - January 27th 2024

Blood Brothers - UK Tour January 17th 2023 - April 29th 2023

Dirty Dancing - Dominion Theatre January 18th 2023 - April 29th 2023

Sylvia - London, Old Vic January 27th 2023 - April 1st 2023

Oklahoma! - London, Wyndham's Theatre February 16th 2023 - September 2nd 2023

Bat out of Hell - London, Peacock Theatre February 17th 2023 - April 1st 2023

The Great British Bake Off Musical - London, Noel Coward Theatre February 25th 2023 - May 13th 2023

Guys and Dolls - London, Bridge Theatre February 27th 2023 - September 2nd 2023

Titanic the Musical - UK Tour March 16th 2023 - August 5th 2023

Ain't Too Proud - London, Prince Edward's Theatre March 31st 2023 - October 1st 2023

The Rocky Horror Show - London, Peacock Theatre May 3rd 2023 - June 10th 2023

Mrs Doubtfire - London, Shaftsbury Theatre May 12th 2023 - January 13th 2024

42nd Street - London, Sadler's Wells June 7th 2023 - July 2nd 2023

Crazy for You - London, Gillian Lynne Theatre June 24th 2023 - January 20th 2024

The Spongebob Musical - London, Queen Elizabeth Hall July 26th 2023 - August 27th 2023

The Drifter's Girl - UK Tour September 12th 2023 - January 13th 2024

France

The Producers / Les Producteurs - Paris, Theatre de Paris December 9th 2022 - April 2nd 2023

The Lion King / Le Roi Lion (Disney) - Paris, Théâtre Mogador December 13th 2022 - June 6th 2023

Cabaret - Paris, Lido2Paris - February 3rd 2023

Josephine Baker the Musical - Paris, Bobino Theatre - February 22nd 2023

Notre Dame de Paris - Paris, NODUS November 15th 2023 - December 3rd 2023

Germany

Tanz der Vampire - Stuttgart, Stage Palladium Theater October 5th 2021 - September 10th 2023 Cast: Filippo Strocchi (Graf von Krolock), Kristin Backes (Sarah), Vincent van Gorp (Afred), Jakub Wocial (Professor Abronsius), Oleg Krasovitskii (Chagal), Anja Bakus (Magda), Wolfgang Zarnack (Koukol), Andreas Nutzl (Herbert), Hanny Aden (Rebeca)

Aladdin (Disney) - Stuttgart, Stage Apollo Theater October 2021 - January 19th 2023 Cast: Gonzalo Campos López (Aladdin), Rita Sebah (Jasmin), Maximillian Man (Genie), Claus Dam (Sultan), Paolo Bianca (Jafar), Terry Alfaro (Iago)

Ku-Damm 56 das Musical - Berlin, Stage Theater des Westens October 2021 - February 19th 2023 Sandra Leitner (Monika), Pedro Reichert (Freddy), Katja Uhlig (Caterina Schollack), Patrik Cieslik (Joachim)

Mamma Mia - Hamburg, Stage Theater Neue Flora October 2021 - August 27th 2023 Cast: Sabine Mayer (Donna), Anna Thorén (alt Donna), Rose-Anne van Elswijk (Sophie), Jennifer van Brenk (Tanja), Franziska Lessing (Rosie), Sasche Oliver Bauer (Sam), Tetje Mierendorf (Bill), Detlef Leistenschneider (Harry)

Hamilton - Hamburg, Stage Operettenhaus October 2021 - September 30th 2023 Benet Monteiro (Alexander Hamilton), Diluckshan Jeyaratnam (alt Hamilton/Aaron Burr), Ivy Quainoo (Eliza Hamilton), Gino Emnes (Aaron Burr), Chasity Crisp (Angelixa Schuyler), Charles Simmons (George Washington), Daniel Dodd-Ellis (Lafayette/Thomas Jefferson), Redchild (Hercules Mulligan/James Maddison), Oliver Edward (John Laurens/Philip Hamilton), Mae Ann Jorolan (Peggy Schuyler/Maria Reynolds), Jan Kersjes (King George)

Frozen/Die Eiskonigin (Disney) - Hamburg, Stage Theater an der Elbe October 2021 - December 23rd 2023 Cast: Sabrina Weckerlin (Elsa), Celena Pieper (Anna), Janneke Ivankova (alt Elsa), Willemijn Maandag (alt Anna), Owen Playfair (Kristoff), Bob van de Weijdeven (Hans), Elindo Avastia (Olaf)

The Lion King/Der Konig der Lowen (Disney) - Hamburg, Stage Theater im Hafen October 2021 - December 17th 2023 Cast: Hope Maine (Simba), Andrea del Solar (Nala), OJ Lunch (Mufasa), Bongiwe Happiness Malunga (Rafiki), Bernd Lambrecht (Scar), Joachim Benoit (Zazu), Tobias Korinth (Timon), S'Thembiso Keith Machiane (Pumbaa)

Moulin Rouge! - Cologne, Musical Dome Autumn 2022 - June 30th 2023

Tina (The Tina Turner Musical) - Stuttgart, Stage Apollo Theater March 7th 2023 - December 23rd 2023 Cast: Aisata Blackman (Tina Turner)

Romeo und Julia: Liebe ist Alles (Plate/Sommer) - Berlin, Stage Theater des Westens March 21st 2023 - June 30th 2023

Madagascar: A Musical Adventure - Tecklenburg, Freilichtspiele Tecklenburg May 14th 2023 - August 30th 2023

Musical Meets Pop / Pfingstgala -Tecklenburg, Freilichtspiele Tecklenburg May 29th 2023

Mozart! das Musical - Tecklenburg, Freilichtspiele Tecklenburg June 16th 2023 - August 27th 2023

Robin Hood das Musical - Fulda, Schlosstheater June 18th 2023 - August 27th 2023

Miami Nights - Tecklenburg, Freilichtspiele Tecklenburg July 21st 2023 - September 10th 2023

Tarzan (Disney) - Stuttgart, Stage Palladium Theater November 18th 2023 - June 30th 2024 Cast: TBD

Ireland

Six - UK and Ireland Tour, Belfast April 11th 2023 - April 15th 2023

Italy

Sister Act - Milan, Teatro Nazionale CheBanca December 2022 - January 8th 2023

The Netherlands

Aladdin - The Hague, Circustheater Scheveningen October 2021 - February 26th 2023 Cast: Jonathan Vroege (Aladdin), Stanley Burleson (Genie), Keoma Aidhen (Jasmine), Roberto de Groot (Jafar), Michel Sorbach (Sultan), Darren van der Lek (Iago)

Tina (The Tina Turner Musical) - Utrecht, Beatrix Theater October 2021 - February 18th 2023 Cast: Nyassa Alberta (Tina), Nurlaila Karim (alt Tina)

Charlie and the Chocolate Factory - Netherlands Tour December 7th 2022 - March 5th 2023

The Prom - Royal Theater Carré January 20th 2023 - January 22nd 2023 Cast: Pia Douwes, Juliette van Tongeren

Les Misérables - Royal Theater Carré March 1st 2023 - March 19th 2023 Milan van Waardenburg (Jean Valjean), René van Kooten (alt Jeab Valjean), Freek Vartels (Javert), Yannick Plugers (Thénardier), Michael Muyderman (Marius), Channah Hewitt (Fantine), Vajén van den Bosch (Éponine), Ellen Pieters (Madame Thénardier), Mark Roy Luykx (Enjolras), Sem Gerritsma (Cosette)

Aida (Disney) - The Hague, Circustheater Scheveningen April 12th 2023 - June 30th 2023

Les Misérables - Royal Theater Carré July 5th 2023 - July 23rd 2023 Milan van Waardenburg (Jean Valjean), René van Kooten (alt Jeab Valjean), Freek Vartels (Javert), Yannick Plugers (Thénardier), Michael Muyderman (Marius), Channah Hewitt (Fantine), Vajén van den Bosch (Éponine), Ellen Pieters (Madame Thénardier), Mark Roy Luykx (Enjolras), Sem Gerritsma (Cosette)

Six - Amsterdam, Delamar Theatre September 20th 2023 - October 1st 2023

Six - Rotterdam, Nieuwe Luxor Theater October 4th 2023 - October 8th 2023

Russia

Fear Nothing, I Am With You НИЧЕГО НЕ БОЙСЯ, Я С ТОБОЙ - Moscow, MDM Theatre 2022 - February 26th 2023

First Date - Moscow, MDM Theatre December 17th 2022 - January 28th 2023

Valentine’s Day - Moscow, MDM Theatre December 22nd 2022 - January 21st 2023

Demon Onegin мюзикл Демон Онегина - St Petersburg December 23rd 2022 - July 23rd 2023

Master and Margarita МАСТЕР И МАРГАРИТА - St Petersburg December 29th 2022 - July 16th 2023

Alice in Wonderland (Gleb Matveychuk) - St Petersburg, Большой зал театра музыкальной комедии January 2nd 2023 - January 4th 2023

Miracle-Yudo ЧУДО-ЮДО- St Petersburg January 4th 2023 - January 6th 2023

Hits From The Broadway And The Whole World - St Petersburg, Большой зал театра музыкальной комедии January 5th 2023, January 19th 2023

The Count of Monte Cristo (Frank Wildhorn) - St Petersburg, Большой зал театра музыкальной комедии January 6th 2023 - January 8th 2023

Notre Dame de Paris + Romeo et Juliette - St Petersburg January 13th 2023

Can-Can - St Petersburg, Большой зал театра музыкальной комедии January 14th 2023 - January 15th 2023

Bely.Petersburg - St Petersburg, Большой зал театра музыкальной комедии January 17th 2023

Thieves’ Carnival - St Petersburg, Большой зал театра музыкальной комедии January 18th 2023

Peter I ПЁТР I (Frank Wildhorn) - St Petersburg, Большой зал театра музыкальной комедии January 20th 2023 - TBD

The Mousetrap - St Petersburg, Большой зал театра музыкальной комедии January 21st 2023

Queen of Spades Дама Пик - St Petersburg January 25th 2023 - January 26th 2023

Diamond Chariot Алмазная колесница - St Petersburg January 20th 2023 - April 9th 2023

Lolita Лолита - St Petersburg February 3rd 2023 - July 28th 2023

Seven Short Stories Семь новелл - St Petersburg February 11th 2023 - May 9th 2023

Rasputin РАСПУТИН - St Petersburg February 9th 2023 - May 6th 2023

Scotland

Six - UK and Ireland Tour, Edinburgh, Aberdeen, Glasgow May 2nd 2023 - May 13th 2023, August 29th 2023 - September 3rd 2023

Spain

Company - Madrid, UMusic Hotel Teatro Albéniz November 17th 2022 - February 14th 2023

The Lion King / El Rey León - Madrid, Teatro Lope de Vega December 2022 - March 31st 2023

Tina (The Tina Turner Musical) - Madrid, Teatro Coliseum December 2022 - January 8th 2023

Switzerland

Sister Act - Zurich, MAAG halle December 2022 - Feburary 23rd 2023

Lady Bess - St Gallen, Theatre St Gallen January 12th 2022 - April 26th 2023

Wustenblume - St Gallen, Theatre St Gallen May 23rd 2023 - June 10th 2023

Wales

Six - UK and Ireland Tour, Aberdeen August 8th 2023 - August 12th 2023

Sources (links not clickable otherwise Tumblr may block/hide the post):

musicalvienna.at

muzcomedy.ru

spotlight-musicals.de

stage-entertainment.com/productions

theatersg.ch

theatreinparis.com

mm-musical.ru

volksoper.at

companyelmusical.es

charliedemusical.nl

londontheatre.co.uk/whats-on

landestheater-linz.at/musiktheater

buehnebaden.at

drew-sarich.com

carre.nl/en

freilichtspiele-tecklenburg.de

sisteract-musical.ch

sixthemusical.com

moulin-rouge-musical.de

#i spent.. more time on that than i meant too #answeredasks #musicals #musical theatre #masterlists #european musicals #europeanmusicals #elisabeth das musical #tanz der vampire #rebecca das musical #drew sarich #european musicals in 2023

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mariacallous · 1 year

Text

A great deal of praise has been heaped on Europe and the United States for their sustained and determined response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with much of the congratulatory talk centered on the damage being done to Russia. Kyiv’s Western allies have provided the fledgling Ukrainian military with Javelin and Stinger missiles, rocket artillery, and, most recently, modern tanks. Yet, until Feb. 24, 2022, the United States made little effort to deter Russia, despite ample evidence that it intended to invade.

From President George W. Bush’s tepid response to the 2008 invasion of Georgia to the Biden administration’s antebellum halfhearted gestures of support for Ukraine, U.S. policies left the perception that the United States was not willing to make a renewed assault painful for Russia. The result was yet another war and a tremendously costly one at that.

It is often difficult to determine when deterrence works because, almost by definition, it is the proverbial dog that does not bark. Absent being in the room when leaders remark that they are not carrying out an action due to a threat, it is difficult to assign the cause to deterrence.

When it comes to war, realist scholars such as John Mearsheimer have noted that for deterrence to succeed, the state seeking war should perceive that the chances of success would be low and the costs high. Part of altering a state’s calculus is simple numbers: how many tanks, missiles, aircraft, and other weapons the defending state possesses. In his seminal work Arms and Influence, Thomas Schelling artfully puts it, “The power to hurt is bargaining power.”

This created the central failure of U.S. policy. Refusing to send sophisticated weapons to Ukraine failed to signal to Russian leaders that an invasion of Ukraine would hurt—and potentially even fail.

In the run-up to the war, Russian President Vladimir Putin thought that his forces would march into Kyiv in a matter of days with few losses. After all, the international community did little when he annexed Crimea in 2014. Washington’s muted reaction to previous Russian provocations signaled an unwillingness to incur any costs to prevent Russia from doing what it wanted. U.S. intransigence toward providing lethal aid seemed to confirm that Ukraine lacked the capacity to resist, further reinforcing the Russian belief that the invasion would likely be easy and quick. The recent war in Ukraine is, therefore, a direct result of the West’s lack of resolve and failure to credibly deter Russia. Moscow thought it could get away with murder—as it had in the past.

Recall the aftermath of the 2008 invasion of Georgia. The Bush administration airlifted Georgian soldiers serving in Iraq back to Georgia to fight, provided a humanitarian aid package, and offered tersely worded denouncements and demarches. But it categorically rejected providing Georgia with serious military assistance in the form of anti-tank missiles and air defense missiles and even refrained from implementing punishing economic sanctions against Russia. The United States’ lack of resolve to punish Russia for its gross violation of international law was underscored when U.S. National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley’s remark “Are we prepared to go to war with Russia over Georgia?”—made during a National Security Council meeting after the war started—was later released to the media.

When the Obama administration took office, his team sought to reset relations with Russia. In short order, the United States abandoned Bush administration plans to build a missile defense system in Eastern Europe, canceled sanctions against Russian arms sector, and reduced the U.S. presence in Europe. By 2013, there were no U.S. tanks on German soil, a historic end to a deterrent force that had been in place for nearly seven decades. U.S. Army troops across Europe shrunk to a historic low of 30,000, just one-tenth of the commitment during the Cold War.

The United States did little to prevent or respond to the 2014 Russian invasion of Ukraine. Rejecting calls from within the administration and a bipartisan coalition in Congress, the Obama White House outright refused to provide any form of lethal aid to embattled Ukrainian defenders.

President Barack Obama, encouraged by German Chancellor Angela Merkel, was worried that providing even defensive weapons could result in an uncontrollable escalation. Ukraine also suffered from significant corruption, and there was fear that the weapons might fall into the wrong hands—a consideration that hadn’t come into play in far more corrupt states like Iraq and Afghanistan. As a result, Ukrainian pleas for Javelin anti-tank missiles, Apache attack helicopters, and other weapons were ignored. Instead, the administration rapidly provided $120 million in security assistance and another $75 million in military equipment such as night vision goggles, medical supplies, Humvees, and unarmed unmanned aerial systems. During Obama’s tenure, total military assistance amounted to $600 million—but never included weapons.

For its primary response to the 2014 invasion, the administration banked on punishing sanctions to alter Russian behavior. These amounted to travel bans levied on senior Russian political, military, and economic leaders; frozen assets; and economic restrictions. Key business leaders and cronies of Putin were targeted, and entire industries were banned from doing business with the United States. Many allies followed suit.

Such actions were seen as “smart sanctions” that focused, like precision-guided munitions, on hitting critical industries or individuals involved in the conduct of the war. The hope was to minimize the damage to common Russians. But without making the public pay a price for war, the economic pain was inherently limited. Russia simply devalued the ruble and cashed out the reserves it had built up in its central bank from a decade of high energy prices to weather the sanctions-induced recession—a cost it felt worth paying in return for the seizure of Crimea.

The shootdown of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 in July 2014 by Russian-controlled separatists was also met with a muted response from Washington. The U.S. response was limited to assisting the investigation and calling on Russia to end the war against Ukraine. While some additional sanctions were levied against Russia, particularly by Europe, the attack actually served to harden Obama’s resolve against providing weapons to Ukraine, reflecting his worries about further escalation.

Instead, to improve deterrence against Russia, the administration pushed for NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence. The new defense posture consisted of four multinational battalion-sized units deployed to areas—the Baltic states and Poland—most likely to be attacked. However, these measures were meant to deter Russian aggression only against NATO states and had no bearing on the danger of future conflict in Ukraine.

Next, the Obama administration established the Joint Multinational Training Group-Ukraine in 2015 with the mission of training, equipping, training center development, and doctrinal assistance to the Ukrainian armed forces. The group included hundreds of trainers from the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Lithuania. Notably, U.S. trainers were limited to providing only “nonlethal training” to the Ukrainians, producing a muddled and incoherent set of rules. For example, U.S. trainers could train Ukrainians on small unit tactics that involved “shooting, moving, and communicating” but were prohibited from teaching sniper skills because these were considered “lethal.” That lack of commitment signaled, yet again, that the United States was not willing to give Ukraine the training or firepower it would need to repel Russia.

The Trump administration aimed to make a clean break with its predecessor and demonstrate strength. But in reality, President Donald Trump’s approach differed little from the previous two administrations. He reversed the prohibition on providing lethal aid to Ukraine and agreed to ship the much-desired Javelin missiles. Still, only 210 were delivered along with a paltry 37 launchers. More importantly, they were banned from being used in combat and instead were required to be locked up in a storage facility to serve as a “strategic deterrent.”

The amount of security assistance saw similar cosmetic changes, with a modest bump up to $350 million in the administration’s first year. But those unexceptional annual increases came with caveats and considerable drama. In 2019, when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky asked Trump for more Javelins, he demurred and blocked the delivery of nearly $400 million in assistance unless Zelensky agreed to investigate former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden—his opponent in the 2020 election—and his son. Trump held up the assistance for 55 days, only releasing it when his actions became public, eventually leading to Trump’s first impeachment.

Even though Trump begrudgingly allowed the Javelins and more aid, his administration was unwilling to send a general officer to serve as the senior defense official in Ukraine. The Obama administration had appointed retired Gen. John Abizaid to be the senior defense advisor to Ukraine, but he was only a part-time consultant and no longer on active duty. Abizaid supported assigning an active-duty general to Ukraine to coordinate the U.S. effort and made this known to U.S. European Command and the Defense Department. The response was that the U.S. military did not have a general it could dedicate to the mission.

Previously, when the priority was great enough, the U.S. miliary has assigned generals or admirals to serve in the U.S. embassies in Israel, the U.K., Egypt, Turkey, Pakistan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Iraq—yet could not spare even one of its 620 generals or admirals for Ukraine.

Further weakening the U.S. deterrent posture, Trump began questioning the United States’ commitment to NATO and even declined to affirm NATO’s Article 5, its most important mutual defense clause. Worse, in 2018, Trump employed heavy-handed tactics more suited for a transactional relationship than an alliance, explicitly threatening member states that he would not come to their aid in the event of a Russian attack unless they paid up. Trump described NATO as “obsolete” and, like a 1940s union boss, harshly decried its European members for not paying their dues.

By some accounts, Trump was even considering the nuclear option: leaving NATO altogether. The message to Russia from such fratricidal melees was clear: If the United States would not protect fellow NATO states that it was treaty-bound to defend, then the United States would definitely not defend a non-NATO country in Russia’s backyard.

The poor signaling only continued with the Biden administration. Even as it became clearer that Russia was considering an attack, the United States drastically limited the supply of weapons that it provided to Ukraine. In November 2021, U.S. officials snubbed Ukrainian requests for shoulder-fired Stinger anti-aircraft missiles—a purely defensive weapon.

Then, in December, barely two months before the invasion, the White House hesitated approving a package of “lethal and nonlethal assistance” that included Javelins, counter-artillery radars, sniper rifles, small arms, and other equipment because it worried that the assistance would be “too provocative to Russia.”

Only when it became clear that the invasion was imminent did the United States provide a modicum of uptick in aid, consisting of a limited number of Javelin and Stinger missiles, with the latter coming from U.S. allies as opposed to from the United States itself. Useful as those proved, they did not alter Russia’s cost-benefit analysis. And with little talk of additional aid, this was a clear signal to Russia that the United States’ commitment would hardly be different from what it was in 2014.

Most of all, the United States seemed to be convinced, as Moscow was, that Ukrainian resistance would rapidly crumble in the face of a Russian assault. Given the United States’ paltry efforts to build Ukraine’s military into one that could credibly deter Russia, it should not be surprising that both nations made this miscalculation. On Feb. 14, 2022, just prior to the invasion, the United States sent another important signal that further communicated a lack of commitment to Ukraine and a resignation that the war was already lost: It announced it was closing its embassy in Kyiv. By comparison, the United States refused to close its embassy in Paris even as Nazi Germany threatened France and maintained an embassy in Vichy after the surrender and occupation. The closure of the Kyiv embassy echoed moves by the U.S. military to withdraw the vast majority of military advisors days earlier.

Both actions conveyed clearly that the United States had little stake in Ukraine and was not willing to risk American lives. In many ways, it gave a green light for the Russian assault that Moscow anticipated to be a fait accompli repeat of Crimea. To the Ukrainians, it sent the message that instead of fighting, they should pursue a diplomatic solution as they had done, unsuccessfully, for Crimea in 2014.

In the final weeks before the invasion, there was some debate in Washington as to whether to impose withering sanctions in an attempt to deter Russia or afterward as a punishment and future deterrent. But Russia had already amassed more than 100,000 troops at Ukraine’s border, a momentous strategic move that bore considerable costs. Barring a significant deterrent act by the United States and its allies, the die had already been cast. Sanctions could possibly have inflicted enough of a cost to deter the invasion, but one of Russia’s key lessons from 2014 was that it could weather any new measures that the United States and its allies were likely to implement.

When the invasion came, U.S. actions spoke louder than words. Officials in the Biden administration believed that Ukraine could not win and that Kyiv would fall within days. The United States even offered to evacuate Zelensky, to which he famously replied, “I need ammunition, not a ride.” Publicly communicating an expectation that the invasion would be over quickly only undermined deterrence by signaling the cost would be minimal to Russia. It was only after Ukraine demonstrated capability and resolve that significant military assistance began flowing and punishing sanctions were enacted—actions that, ironically, might have deterred Russia in the first place.

The sad irony is that U.S. leaders, of both parties, chose to avoid deterrence for fear of escalating conflict—only to find themselves continually escalating their support once conflict started. Time after time, the United States chose the option that was perceived as the least provocative but that instead led to the Russians becoming convinced that they were safe to carry out the most provocative action of all: a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The United States ignored the eternal wisdom of the Latin phrase Si vis pacem, para bellum (“If you want peace, prepare for war”) and instead hoped that half-steps and compromise would suffice. While so far those decisions have prevented direct conflict between two nuclear-armed superpowers, they have caused Russia and the West to be locked in a continuing series of escalations with an increasing danger of a miscalculation that could lead to exactly that scenario.

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attonitos-gloria · 1 year

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Top 5 Fictional Character (non-asioaf)?

Hi baby! I just now realize this ask is a terrible idea because I want to put everyone in here, lol but okay, from the top of my head, books only, no shows/movies:

1. The doctor's wife from Blindness by José Saramago.

2. Richard Papen, from The Secret History by Donna Tartt. Everyone in TSH, tbh, and it's tight between Richard and Francis but, yes. Richard.

3. Oskar Schell from Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close by Jonathan Safran Foer.

4. Thomas Cromwell from The Wolf Hall series by Hilary Mantel. I am aware he is a real person but I the real Cromwell is not my blorbo, only Mantel's.

5. Eddis, from The Queen's Thief Series by MWT. I have loved her since I first read her. No joke.

Honorable mention to Horatio from Hamlet.

And yours?! I know Attolia is in there lol but who else?

#ask me stuff

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brookstonalmanac · 1 year

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Birthdays 2.12

Beer Birthdays

Adolph Schell (1858)

Jennifer Talley (1969)

Five Favorite Birthdays

Tex Beneke; jazz saxophonist, singer, bandleader (1914)

R. Buckminster Fuller; architect, engineer (1895)

Steve Hackett; rock guitarist (1950)

Abraham Lincoln; 16th U.S. President (1809)

Christina Ricci; actor (1980)

Famous Birthdays

Maud Adams; actor (1945)

Darren Aronofsky; film director (1969)

Lolly Badcock; English porn actor (1984)

Joe Don Baker; actor (1936)

Judy Blume; writer (1938)

Omar Bradley; U.S. general (1893)

Josh Brolin; actor (1968)

Paul Bunyan; mythical character (1834)

Thomas Campion; English writer (1567)

Charles Darwin; scientist (1809)

Pat Dobson; Baltimore Orioles P (1942)

Joe Garagiola; baseball C, sportscaster (1926)

Lorne Greene; actor (1914)

Arsenio Hall; comedian,, talk-show host (1955)

Michael Ironside; actor (1950)

Joanna Kerns; actor (1953)

Sarah Lancaster; actor (1980)

John L. Lewis; labor leader (1880)

Alice Roosevelt Longworth; socialite, daughter of Teddy Roosevelt (1884)

Ray Manzarek; rock musician, keyboardist (1939)

Cotton Mather; writer, clergy (1663)

Michael McDonald; rock musician (1952)

George Meredith; English writer (1809)

Anna Pavlova; ballerina (1881)

Chynna Phillips; pop singer (1968)

Mel Powell; jazz pianist (1923)

Bill Russell; Boston Celtics C (1934)

Sylvia Saint; porn actor (1976)

Forrest Tucker; actor (1919)

Judd Winick; cartoonist (1970)

Paula Zahn; television journalist (1956)

Franco Zeffirelli; Italian film director (1923)

#Birthdays

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voguecovers · 1 year

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▪️Vogue Czechoslovakia, December 2022

model Kim Schell @kimschell • photographer Abdul Artuev @abdullartuev • editor-in-chief Andrea Běhounková @andreabehounkova • creative director and styling Jan Králíček @kralicek • hair @cyrillaloue • makeup Thomas Lorenz @thomaslorenzmakeup • publisher Michaela Seewald @michaelaseewald_v24 • production @chudarovaa

| @kimschell wearing sheepskin hooded parka and Galop d’Hermès Swift calfskin bag, both @hermes, tights @wolford

...

Vogue Czechoslovakia Cover

FOLLOW ON INSTAGRAM

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alonewolfr · 3 months

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Come ogni cosa, se vorrai crederci, troverai i motivi per farlo.

|| Thomas Schell Jr.

#citazioni

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hassibah · 5 months

Text

It turned out the secret bombing of Cambodia and Laos, which lasted years, represented a template. When Nixon in 1970 revealed the secret bombings, it was a step too far even for Thomas Schelling, one of the Pentagon’s favorite defense academics, who called them “sickening.” As Grandin writes in Kissinger’s Shadow, the Cambridge-to-Washington set was not prepared in 1970 to accept that the U.S. had the right to destroy an enemy “safe haven” in a country it was not at war with and to do it all in secret, thereby shielding a war from basic public scrutiny. After 9/11, those assertions became accepted, foundational pillars of a War on Terror permitting four presidents to bomb, for 20 years, Pakistanis, Yemenis, Somalis, Libyans, Syrians, and others.

....

In 1999, Pinochet was arrested in London through an effort by Baltazar Garzon, a Spanish judge investigating Operation Condor. Kissinger urged the British not to extradite the general. “I would be very happy if Pinochet was allowed home,” he told an interviewer. “This episode has gone on long enough and all my sympathies are with him.” Two years later, the administration of George W. Bush responded contemptuously to the Chilean Supreme Court’s efforts to compel Kissinger to testify. “It is unjust and ridiculous that a distinguished servant of this country should be harassed by foreign courts in this way,” an official told the Daily Telegraph. The paper noted that Kissinger was an “informal adviser” to Bush, as he was to many presidents.

Bush’s declaration of protection for Kissinger, coupled with his rejection of the Rome Treaty on the International Criminal Court, extinguished a glimmer of hope that Kissinger would someday join Pinochet under arrest. It was always a fantasy. The international architecture that the U.S. and its allies established after World War II, shorthanded today as the “rules-based international order,” somehow never gets around to applying the same pressure on a hegemonic United States as it applies to U.S.-hostile or defiant powers. It reflects the organizing principle of American exceptionalism: America acts; it is not acted upon. Henry Kissinger was a supreme architect of the rules-based international order.

#henry kissinger #just got around to this piece

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alanshemper · 5 months

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But deterrence is not just a matter of weapons in arsenals, boots on the ground, planes in the air, ships at sea, or strategies on the planning table. Signaling a credible military threat is only part of a successful strategy of deterrence. It also takes assurances to keep potential adversaries at bay. A threatened state has little incentive to avoid war if it fears the unacceptable consequences of not fighting. As the Nobel Prize–winning economist Thomas Schelling wrote years ago, “‘One more step and I shoot’ can be a deterrent threat only if accompanied by the implicit assurance, ‘And if you stop, I won’t.’”

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Ill-advised statements made in the past by former and current U.S. officials suggesting that the United States should formally recognize Taiwan as a sovereign state or restore a clear alliance commitment to defend the island would, if adopted, undercut assurances and weaken deterrence as surely as would a lack of military readiness. U.S. military threats will lose their potency if Chinese leaders believe that the United States will take advantage of their restraint to promote Taiwan’s formal independence or to prevent unification under any circumstances, even if it were to result from peaceful, uncoerced negotiation. Beijing may determine that refraining from an attack would mean it would forever lose the possibility of unification or would allow the United States to restore something akin to a defense alliance with Taiwan. And if China comes to that conclusion, then Washington’s focus on beefing up military power in the region may still fail to prevent a war.

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Beijing, Taipei, and Washington are all focused on demonstrating resolve and building convincing wartime capabilities to signal their preparedness and willingness to use force. Beijing hopes to prevent Taiwan from further consolidating its separation from the mainland, while Taipei and Washington hope to deter Beijing from attacking Taiwan to force unification. Yet all three parties have neglected corresponding efforts to signal to one another that these military preparations are not meant to alter the status quo or to preclude the prospect of an eventual peaceful resolution of cross-strait differences.

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Biden administration officials have also noticeably failed to confirm that the United States would accept any peaceful resolution of cross-strait differences achieved through negotiations and without coercion. The Biden administration’s omission of this assurance has increased Beijing’s suspicions that Washington would never accept any form of cross-strait integration, even if achieved through nonviolent means. So have statements by Ely Ratner, the assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific affairs, that Taiwan is “located at a critical node within the First Island Chain” in the Western Pacific, implying that the island is strategically indispensable to the defense of U.S. allies and thus no form of unification would be acceptable to the United States.

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Just as the United States must not rule out the possibility of an eventual peaceful integration of the two sides of the strait (as long as such a move has the assent of the people of Taiwan), Taipei should also not take actions that would permanently foreclose that outcome. To deter war, Taiwan must allow leaders in Beijing to believe that peaceful unification remains possible.

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To the extent that Washington can influence Chinese President Xi Jinping’s thinking on this crucial issue, it should do so; the United States should avoid making statements or taking actions that could lead Beijing to conclude that unification can only be achieved through force.

Consistent with its “one China” policy of not supporting an independent Taiwan or seeking to restore a formal alliance with Taipei, the U.S. government should not use in its official communications symbols of Taiwan’s sovereignty, such as the flag of the Republic of China, or refer to Taiwan as either a country or an ally, as the Trump administration did in a 2019 Defense Department report. If U.S. officials do so inadvertently, such as when U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken referred to Taiwan as a country on two occasions in 2021, a correction should be swiftly issued.

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The Biden administration insists that it has made no changes to the “one China” policy. But Biden’s remarks have repeatedly broken with strategic ambiguity and mischaracterized U.S. policy. During an August 2021 interview with ABC News, Biden stated, incorrectly, that the United States has a treaty commitment to defend Taiwan, comparing the U.S. “sacred commitment” to the pledges it has made to Japan and South Korea. In the most egregious misstatement of U.S. policy on Taiwan to date, Biden told reporters in November 2021 that Taiwan “is independent” and “makes its own decisions,” a description that contravenes long-standing U.S. policy that does not recognize Taiwan as an independent, sovereign state.

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The U.S. commitment to Taiwan does not need further clarification or beefing up, and certainly no U.S. official should invoke or even suggest anything akin to a restoration of a formal alliance. Such an unqualified commitment to Taiwan could be seen on both sides of the strait as a green light for more strident pro-independence voices in Taiwan to pursue a formal separation from China.

30 November 2023

#biden administration #us foreign policy #china #taiwan

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