#100 days of Russia-Ukraine conflict

[nuadaargetlamh]

One is a convicted criminal that wants to institute a dictatorship “on day one only” (with majority support from his party!), would give a greenlight to Project 2025, use a weakened Schedule F to install THOUSANDS of cronies, was just given immunity for “official acts” (what counts as “official”? whatever his Project 2025-instituted judges want, of course), wants to institute military tribunals for his enemies (and allies!), will 100% support Russia in wiping Ukraine off the map, will use the combo of the removal of the Chevron deference/the Supreme Court allowing people to openly bribe them/Schedule F to extend the far-right’s reach into every government agency and deregulate everything to the benefit of his rich capitalist buddies, has already taken away so many freedoms from racial minorities/queer people/women/anyone-that-isn’t-a-rich-white-man that it would take hours to list them all in this post, and so so so so SO MUCH MORE.

The other is a typical neoliberal politician.

Remember also, you’re not just choosing a president, you’re choosing their cabinet, potential Supreme Court justices, federal employees as well. With Project 2025 ALONE, Trump would do so much more damage than just what he can do himself. That’s not including everything else his Federalist Society Supreme Court would and have given him on a silver platter.

Project 2025 really deserves a part to itself just to list some of what it includes: complete abortion/contraceptive ban (no exceptions), destroying worker’s unions and protections, remove Social Security/Medicare/Affordable Care Act, eliminate the ENTIRE DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION, end civil rights protections in government, ban teaching the history of slavery, remove climate protections while gutting the EPA, end equal marriage and enforce the “traditional family ideal”, use the military to gun down protests, mass deportation of legal immigrants (especially Muslims), ending birthright citizenship, pack the lower courts, and plenty more. The far-right wasn’t able to take full advantage of Trump’s presidency the first time since it was so unexpected. They’re preparing so that they won’t make the same mistake again. THERE ARE OVER 900 PAGES OF POLICIES AND PLANS THAT THEY ABSOLUTELY WILL IMPLEMENT IF THEY WIN. READ IT.

Not to mention, if you care about Palestine (like I do, a lot), Trump would be MUCH WORSE for Palestine than the other candidate, supporting Bibi going “from the river to the sea” and already cut off millions in aid to Palestine in 2018 (which Biden reversed!). If you support a free Palestine and don’t vote blue, you have categorically hurt them more than if you did. There is no quick and bloodless peace deal that both Palestine and Israel would ever agree to. The road to an end of the Palestine-Israel conflict is going to be long and difficult, probably decades of dedicated de-radicalization in both states, and will involve far more than one person’s decisions in the end. Unless Trump takes power, and avoids all that by sending enough bombs to turn the Gaza Strip into dust.

There are a few reasons you would choose to vote third party in a FPTP system (support ranked choice voting btw) or not vote “in protest” while ignoring all the state and local elections that affect your area more than the president. Either you’re privileged enough to not be affected by what Trump would bring, you’re ignorant of the consequences, or you care more about doing nothing perfectly rather than doing something, anything that isn’t 100% ideologically “pure” to fight against the far-right fascist movement.

Every voter that still supports Trump is energized by every cruelty he enacts, while thousands of Democrats care more about purity tests and manifesting socialist revolution tulpas than avoiding a fascist dictatorship.

Have a brain, touch grass, and vote blue all the way down that fucking ballot.

[sayruq]

Biden's visit has concluded. Israel has spent his entire visit trying to muddy the waters of what happened to Al Ahli Hospital and despite their cartoonish efforts, it hasn't worked

The Global South and especially West Asia know who is responsible for the bombing and no amount of AI voice recordings of 'Hamas operatives' can change that.

Israel war crimes continues to backfire on them even in America

Biden backing Israel has had an impact on America's image. Here's a Wall Street Journal article warning that America's continued support is turning countries towards Russia and China which is code for turning countries against America

An EU official said that the EU will pay a heavy price in the Global South for its continued, unabashed support for Israel

There's also speculation that the Biden administration knew about the bombing before it happened.

Countries that were/are allied with Israel continue to distance themselves from Israel like Russia. The reason I keep highlighting Russia is because the West has been running out of ammunition due to the Russia-Ukraine war and that includes Israel which is rumoured to have sent 80-90% of its ammunition to Ukraine. If this conflict lasts a long time, Israel will need to buy weapons and ammunition and Russia would be one of the countries they would turn to (same with China)

So, where are we in terms of the conflict? After days of waffling over a ground operation in Gaza, Israel postponed it until some time after Biden's visit and now we're back here again

Now I'm no military expert but constantly going back and forth on whether or not you'll invade Gaza is bound to do damage to your troops' morale. No wonder they're dealing with mass desertions while their citizens demonstrate on the streets. The Israeli leadership has no plan besides bombing Gaza.

I've seen people on twitter say that the hospital bombing was done deliberately to normalise IDF soldiers to mass civilian deaths in places like hospitals, schools, places of worship, etc. I don't know if I believe that - I think they wanted to push Iran and Hezbollah's buttons before hiding behind Biden. I don't think these people are thinking strategically.

As far as the possibility of regional war is concerned, all indicators show that the West preparing for the war to escalate

Seems to me the Israel has seen what Ukraine has received in just a year and a half of war. They're done receiving a paltry 3.8 billion every year and now prepared to drag out the conflict and I can't say I blame with Biden proposing a 100 billion package for both Ukraine and Israel. This will stretch America too thin as far as funding in concerned. Cracks are already showing

There are parts of the US government that is unhappy that the Ukraine war is losing attention. During the Ukraine war, you had parts of the government that wanted focus to shift from Russia to China. Because of that, the US government has spent the past year alternating between hostility to Russia and threatening to go to war with China over Taiwan. When Niger expelled France from within its borders, America was preparing to join that conflict until Mali and Burkina Faso declared they would fight with Niger. Now they're entering a third front in West Asia. In short, the mighty empire is expending a lot of resources right now and it is not the threat it was when it invaded Iraq and Afghanistan in the early 2000s.

At any rate, the ground invasion of Gaza won't go the way Israel and America hopes it will

The coalition of Palestinian resistance fighters are still patiently waiting for the IDF to come meet them. Their allies aren't backing down either

The reason I keep making these posts is to remind people that, while the genocide of the people of Gaza is horrifying, the war for the liberation of Palestine has not yet been lost.

Do not lose hope. From the river to sea, Palestine WILL be free

[simply-ivanka]

Ukraine's Zelensky

All I hear these days and almost on a daily basis is Ukraine's Zelensky criticizing the United States, the European Union, China or one of those listed for:

Not providing more money or weapons or both;

Not doing enough to help Ukraine;

Interfering with the Russia conflict;

or more.

This weekend Zelensky threatened former President Trump, personally, stating,

“Ukraine, barehanded, without weapons, will not be able to fight a multimillion [Russian] army,” Zelenskiy told the Guardian.

Speaking inside his presidential headquarters, he said he thought this scenario was unlikely. But he said if it happened there would be grave consequences for the US’s standing in the world – as well as for Trump personally. “Does he want to become a loser president? Do you understand what can happen?” Zelenskiy said.

The United States have given, GIVEN, over $100 billion to Ukraine with NO ACCOUNTABILITY! None.

They want more.

Why doesn't the US or the EU initiate peace talks with Russia?

Ukraine is incapable of managing this conflict any further without US and/or EU funding.

Let's just stop this mess now and punish those that have let this develop the way it has!

[mrooops]

ok guys, no jokes, but what the fuck?

i want to touch a really really serious topic in pink floyd fandom rn and i want you all to listen to me at least once. i would really appreciate it if you spread this information. thank you

if you're the type of person who writes "well, waters is still better than gilmour", then just please unfollow me forever the fuck out

but it's ok i'll explain you why

well, a little backstory

while many believe that roger's political views are now quite correct, i want to remind you that he supports an aggressive invasion of the country where i live (Ukraine). if you are still interested, then yes, the war in Ukraine is still going on even if in the west now no one wants to pay attention to it anymore. for your understanding, on average we have 100 air raids in the city per month, at least once a week i definitely hear explosions and, yeah, i don’t live in a hot spot. and this guy just goes out and does an interview where he openly says that he supports the aggressor country. yeah, that's right, he was also allowed to speak at the UN council, where he said that the conflict was provoked. very smart. the same guy who said a couple of days before the war that those who believe that it will start are “out of their minds”

ok ok, but how does this relate to gilmour?

very simple. his daughter-in-law is Ukrainian. and her mother lived in a city that was one of the first to be attacked by the russian army. if you have never seen footage from Kharkiv in the first days of the war, then believe me, it was a terrible sight, people tried to help each other as best they could

and it is still going on

i don’t think it's cool to talk shit about one person who supports israel but then turn a blind eye to how another openly says that Taiwan should belong to china and Ukraine to russia and say "well, he is based", "he's better than gilmour"

if you have any other information about gilmour, you can share it with me.

i know you all really like young waters and i see a lot of positive things in him too, but i really can't stand the fact that now people only really look at how he feels about Palestine, even if i see a lot of articles and posts from adults, who say his support for Palestine is also twofold. don't wanna say anything bad about that because i haven’t studied this topic, but i think you can google them yourself, they always just come up

don't get me wrong, i'm not stopping you from sending pictures of him or drawing him, i'm just asking you not to write that he's better than someone else at something when he's not

oh yeah and one last thing...

if you are a supporter of communism, then get the fuck out too, because communism led to the fact that in the 60s in my country they killed almost all the poets who did not write something in support of the state. in history they were persecuted and killed because they wrote in their native language and mentioned Ukrainian culture. communism led to three great famines in our country, when people had so little to eat that they resorted to cannibalism. it's very scary, but it's true. this is what the government has led to when it wants to bring communism to life

communism is not a cool thing. it's cool in words, not on practice, read history

thank you for your attention

[mariacallous]

U.S. Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris has reportedly selected Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate in a move aimed at energizing the Democratic Party’s progressive base in Midwestern battleground states ahead of a tight presidential election in November.

Walz, a 60-year-old second-term governor as well as a former high school teacher and congressman, was relatively unknown on the national stage before U.S. President Joe Biden abruptly withdrew from the presidential race and endorsed Harris as his successor on July 21.

Since then, Walz has emerged a leading voice in Democratic lines of attack on Republicans, repeatedly referring to former President Donald Trump and his running mate, Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, as “weird.”

Walz now faces an uphill battle of expanding his national visibility in a fledgling presidential campaign with less than 100 days to go until Election Day. The rival Democratic and Republican tickets reflect vastly different views on the United States’ role in the world, though it’s unclear how much foreign policy will be a factor for voters in the upcoming elections.

Trump and Vance have expressed skepticism toward U.S. alliance systems, and Vance in particular has become a vocal critic of continued U.S. aid to Ukraine as it fights its war against Russia, arguing that the United States should instead direct its military resources to countering China. Harris is expected to continue the Biden administration’s policy of supporting Ukraine. On the Middle East, however, Harris is facing mounting pressure from the progressive flank of the Democratic Party to reassess the U.S. relationship with Israel as it carries out its controversial war in Gaza—a driving issue for Arab American voting constituencies in battleground states such as Michigan.

Some progressive groups proactively campaigned to keep Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro—whom Harris was also considering as a potential vice presidential choice—off the Democratic ticket because they opposed his support for Israel.

Walz has hewed to the mainstream Democratic position of supporting Israel, but he has criticized Israel’s handling of the war in Gaza and called in March for the United States to push for a cease-fire. “I’ve asked for these humanitarian pauses to get folks out. … I want this thing to end; I don’t want a cease-fire to last for a week or something like that. We need a permanent solution,” he told Minnesota Public Radio at the time.

Walz grew up in Nebraska and worked as a teacher first in China, then in Nebraska, and finally in Minnesota. He also served for 24 years in the U.S. Army National Guard, rising to the rank of command sergeant major. During his time in Congress from 2007 to 2019, Walz served on the House Armed Services Committee, overseeing U.S. military policy and spending, where early on he became a sharp critic of the Iraq War and opposed sending additional U.S. troops there.

In 2009, Walz visited Syria and met with Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad as part of a congressional delegation that unsuccessfully tried to pressure Syria to stop the flow of arms to militant groups in Iraq, where Minnesota National Guard troops were deployed at the time.

He later opposed then-President Barack Obama’s plan to order military strikes on Syria in 2013 in response to Assad’s use of chemical weapons, citing opposition from constituents to further involving the U.S. military in conflicts in the Middle East. “This man [Assad] is a monster and the situation is horrific, but that is not compelling enough to come up with a plan that is not well thought out and in the best interest of this nation,” Walz said at the time.

Walz won his seat five more times before stepping down to run for governor in 2018.

[battleangel]

Truth, Justice & Northrup Grumman

Four genocides are happening right now:

Palestine/Gaza

Sudan

Congo

Tigra

Last 3 are in Africa so no mainstream news coverage.

US is funding the 1st one because of Zionism (Israel).

There is a 3 front war coming due to US presidential election being next November: Palestine (siding with Israel, Russia (siding with Ukraine), Iran (siding with Israel vs Iran & Palestine).

Biden is asking for $100 billion -- $60 billion for Israel & $40 billion for Ukraine.

He refuses to say how long the US engagements in Israel & Ukraine would be or to give any kind of timetable yet he is demanding 100 billion US dollars fund the genocide in Palestine & the war in Ukraine.

Biden is already openly threatening Iran using very bellicose statements that they had better stay out of Palestine and essentially doing everything he can to start WW3.

Biden is already making an argument that wars in Palestine & Ukraine are good for the US economy in trying to get Congress to approve the $100 billion in aid to Israel & Ukraine.

He claimed that US weapons manufacturing plants that make the weapons in the Israeli and Ukrainian conflicts would be responsible for creating 15k+ US jobs.

It is the Iraq War all over again.

Trumped up, contrived, fake as fuck, only happening to prop up sagging presidential approval ratings, to assure reelection & to drum up jingoism, nationalism & virulent blind patriotism that leads to nihilistic militarism, warmongering, national bloodlust & endless empire building on the corpses of young men, some idealistic, many black brown & poor, endlessly exploited by the capitalist war machine.

Ads to Be All You Can Be while Uncle Sam pays for college education that should be free when student loans literally just went back into repayment will coincide nicely with the aggressive push for WW3.

American jobs. American corpses. American mothers weeping for their dead sons.

Caskets draped in US flags for 21 year old boys.

18 year olds dying in a country they've never visited for no fucking reason.

Hamas is the enemy. Russia is the enemy. Iran is the enemy.

Go die for your country.

Go die for Biden.

Go die to build Americas empire.

Go kill people you've never even met.

Go pull a trigger when your only experience with guns is Call of Duty.

Go destroy your innocence.

Go make your parents proud.

Go risk your life for $30k.

Go risk your life for the VA to treat you like shit if you manage to survive.

Go risk your life so you can have your college education paid for.

Go get PTSD and night terrors.

Go be a man.

Go fight for your country.

Go get permanently injured and disabled.

Go be a wounded warrior.

Go for the propaganda.

Go so people can "Thank you for your service."

Go for free burgers at Applebees on Veterans Day.

Go so you can see your best friend in your squad get blown to smithereens in front of you.

Go to see civilians used as gun fodder and pregnant women used as shields.

Go to see toddlers killed and babies exploded.

Go so you can be given orders that will kill you just so your CO can look good.

Go to get endlessly hazed, bullied, harrassed and almost killed by your fellow Marines so you can get a fancy certcomm later.

Go so you can add "US veteran Armed Forces" to your LinkedIn.

Go endlessly traumatize yourself as an infantryman for noone to hire you once the "conflict" is over and you come home.

Go so you can see endless horrors in war then have endless difficulties "transitioning to a civilian career" once you get home.

Go for the death squads and rape parties.

Go to be captured by the enemy and tortured.

Go to be a prisoner of war.

Go so your weeping mother can be handed a folded flag at your burial to be put inside a glass case.

Go so you can fill the burial plots at military cemeteries across the country.

Go so Biden gets reelected and Trump gets reinstated on twitter.

Go for the chevrons and the stripes.

Go to get pinned.

Go for the trauma and nightmares.

Go so your VA benefits can get cut later.

Go so you can blow your brains out in a VA parking lot since theres still a waiting list to see a psychiatrist for your PTSD, depression, suicidal ideation, insomnia and night terrors.

Go for the sleep demon paralysis.

Go for the disfigurement.

Go for the IEDs.

Go for the bombs on the side of the road.

Go to drive a Humvee.

Go for the Nazi dress blues and shining saber.

Go for valor.

Go for courage.

Go to brag at future Christmas dinners and family parties.

Go to be a dutiful son.

Go because America needs her sacrificial lambs.

Go to be a colonizer.

Go to build empires.

Go to liberate people by destroying their country.

Go to be dehumanized in boot camp.

Go to be broken down and never built back up.

Go to be hazed by the biggest fraternity in the world, the United States military.

Go for the toxic masculinity, stay for the lifelong traumatization.

Go to be a stone cold killer.

Go to kill without blinking or thinking.

Go for the brainwashing and endless conditioning.

Go for the psychological torture.

Go for the pseudosexual sadomasochistic ritualistic tortures and humiliations of boot camp.

Go for the endless mindless roll calls.

Go for the halls of Montezuma to the shores of Tripoli.

Go to lose your humanity.

Go to have your sensitivity shredded in a blender.

Go to assert your manhood.

Go because the NFL had fighter jets fly over the stadium during Sunday Night Football.

Go because youre proud to be an American.

Go because its The American Way.

Go because of Pat Tillman.

Go because its what tough guys do.

Go because you cant find a job anyway.

Go because you can make a career out of it.

Go because of Modern Warfare III.

Go because of the Star Spangled Banner.

Go because of the Stars and Stripes.

Go because of the Pledge of Allegiance.

Go for the bald eagle.

Go for Reagan and the shining city on the hill.

Go for Dubya.

Go for the rockets red glare and the bombs bursting in air.

Go for the Super Bowl honoring you at half time.

Go for the proof through the night that our flag was still there.

Go for the home of the free and the land of the brave.

Go for spacious skies and amber waves of grain.

Go for purple mountains majesty above the fruited plains.

Go to crown thy good with brotherhood from sea to shining sea.

Go for the blood on your hands.

Go to blow someones brains out.

Go to rape a local girl.

Go to vent some steam.

Go for the myth and to build your own mystique.

Go to build a persona.

Go to reinvent yourself.

Go for GI Joe.

Go for Captain America.

Go to be superman.

Go to be a boy scout.

Go for truth, justice and the American Way.

Go to spray nerve gas on a local population.

Go to commit war crimes.

Go for the genocide.

Go for chemical warfare.

Go for psychological warfare.

Go for espirit de corps.

Go for teen spirit.

Go for Northrop Grumman and Raytheon.

Go for Lockeed Martin.

Go for Skunkworks.

Go for the CIA.

Go because pain is weakness leaving the body.

Go to get your head shaved and humanity stripped away.

Go be a cog in the machine.

Go because you havent done anything for your country today.

Go for the military industrial complex.

Go so your father can Friday Night Lights you and vicariously live through your military experience.

Go to be a neighborhood small town hero.

Go to get your head blown off so your high school gymnasium can be named after you.

Go to be a local dead celebrity.

Go to be honored at your hometowns Memorial Day Parade next year.

Go for the NFL to have a collective moment of silence for you and the other dead boys before kickoff.

Go to be thanked in a random celebrity PSA.

Go for free pancakes at IHOP on Veterans Day.

Go to fulfill your fathers warped sense of manhood, masculinity and being a man.

Go to continue the US history of violence and patrimony.

Go for the blood.

Go for the foreign pussy.

Go for the horrors.

Go for the viscera.

Go for the spilled intestines.

Go for the agonizing screams.

Go for the panic attacks and endless insomnia.

Go be a paranoid android.

Go because you havent earned your freedom.

Go to write your name in future US history books.

Go to cotinue the endless cycle of war, terror and violence.

Go for the injustice and genocide.

Go for the inhumanity.

Go for bootcamp graduation.

Go for the framed picture in your dress blues.

Go to be brave and strong.

Go to be fearless.

Go to be John Wayne.

Go for Oppenheimer.

Go for 9/11.

Go for America.

Go because We're number 1!

Go for a US flag waving on a Ford pickup truck.

Go for a Budweiser commercial with galloping horses and amber waves of grain.

Go for the Korean War.

Go for Lyndon B. Johnson.

Go for Richard Nixon.

Go for General Dwight Eisenhower.

Go for the Department of Defense.

Go for the Vietnam War.

Go for Emperor Hirohito.

Go for Hitler, Mussollini and Stalin.

Go for General Franco.

Go for Lenin.

Go for Mao.

Go for Admiral Yamamoto.

Go for Pearl Harbor.

Go for Operation Iraqi Freedom.

Go for Ferdinand being assassinated.

Go for the Hundred Years War.

Go for the Spanish Inquisition.

Go for Columbus.

Go for the Founding Fathers.

Go for the sweet land of liberty.

Go for the land where my fathers died.

Go for the Pilgrims pride.

Go for General Washingtons apotheosis in the rotunda as a American god.

Go to deify yourself as a war hero.

Go to make yourself a comic book character.

Go so Ben Affleck can play you in a war movie.

Go for Blackhawk Down.

Go for Napoleon Bonaparte.

Go for Ridley Scott.

Go to be a gladiator.

Go for Julius Ceasar.

Go because Rome was built in a day.

Go for Christendom.

Go for Alexander the Great.

Go for manifest destiny.

Go for militaristic expansionism.

Go for your corpse to be found on the side of the road in a foreign country you cant even find on a fucking map.

Go so your Humvee can be exploded.

Go to terrorize the local populace.

Go to put on the armor of God and breastplate of righteousness.

Go be a christian soldier.

Go climb Jacobs Ladder.

Go be a soldier of the cross.

Go to be baptized in the blood.

Go wade in the water.

Go for the homesickness and depression.

Go for the drugs and alcoholism.

Go for the panic attacks and anxiety disorders.

Go have your sensitivity, vulnerability and innocence destroyed.

Go to be violated.

Go for the smell of napalm in the morning.

Go for Apocalypse Now.

Go for the victory formation.

Go for the mushroom cloud.

Go for the blitzkrieg.

Go for Army vs Navy.

Go to be politely saluted by strangers at airports.

Go to be a commissioned officer.

Go for the honorable discharge.

Go help Biden beat Trump.

Go help the Democrats look tough.

Go help the Army go viral on TikTok.

Go so Sexyy Red names her baby after you.

Go be used and abused.

Go for Saving Private Ryan and Tom Hanks.

Go for Schindlers List.

Go for Braveheart and Mel Gibson.

Go to remeber the Alamo!

Go for General Custer and Henry Fonda.

Go for John Ford and John Wayne.

Go for Green Berets.

Go for The Last Samurai and Tom Cruise.

Go for Gundam and Neon Genesis Evangelion.

Go for Star Blazers and the Battleship Yamato.

Go to rape comfort girls.

Go for Voltron.

Go to transform like Optimus Prime.

Go for the Gram.

Go for the likes.

Go for the follows.

Go for the LinkedIn reactions.

Go for a pinned tweet.

Go to blow up on the for you page.

Go for virality.

Go for the silver play button on Youtube.

Go for the blue checkmark and verified account.

Go for the clout.

Go to be respected and admired.

Go to be shipped home to your mother in a pine box.

Go to prove youre a man and unafraid.

Go to be a Roman gladiator in the arena.

Go to slay the dragon.

Go to be King Arthur.

Go for the Sorcerers Stone.

Go for the key to the Euphrates River.

Go for the Sword in the Stone.

Go to be a Knight of the Round Table.

Go for the Queen of England.

Go for King and Country.

Go for your rightful place on Mount Rushmore.

Go for E Pluribus Unum.

Go for the Iliad.

Go for The 300.

Go for Thermopylae.

Go to bring down the walls of Jericho.

Go for Numbers 31:18 -- "Kill all the boys and all the women who have slept with a man. Only the young girls who are virgins may live; you may keep them for yourselves."

[godisarepublican]

You're clearly a child and I shouldn't waste my time with you but, think of this as more so my mocking your shocking level of stupidity rather than "Responding"....

The First World War created WWII when it punished Germany even though Germany was no more guilty for the war than any other country. The allies, the EuroTrash, against the wishes of the United States, the pleading of President Wilson, punished Germany and stripped Germany of lands. And a lot of that land went to... guess where? Did you guess? Of course not.

It went to Poland.

So the peace after the First World War didn't look forward. It wasn't an actual attempt at bringing peace to Europe. It was 100% a case of "We won! We can do anything we want to you and you can't stop us!" Then as soon as Germany got strong again another war started.

A similar thing happened after the collapse of the old Soviet Union. Instead of looking forward to an ever lasting peace it was "How can we exploit them?" the "Winners" took advantage of Russia's weak state and forced concessions that they never ever wanted to make. And then Russia got powerful again.

The EuroTrash did exactly what they always have done since the fall of the Roman empire: Screwed each other without regard for tomorrow!

Now fast forward to 2013. Western Europe can't feed itself. "Europe" likely can, with the addition of eastern nations like Poland but western Europe is facing food insecurity. And here's the Ukraine, the breadbasket of Europe.

This, btw, is exactly why Hitler wanted the Ukraine!

So there's a fascist coup in the Ukraine which by now most sources online have "Cleaned Up," either wrote out or downplayed the fascists, or even insisted that the fascists went away immediately after they won.

NOTE: If the fascists are no longer in power, why did Zelensky cancel elections? Hmm? Not exactly a "Democratic" thing to do, now was it?

So this fascists coup instantly sparked conflict with the autonomous regions and war broke out. It was in full swing by early 2014.

The fighting never stopped. There was an attempt at ethnic cleansing and then finally Putin moved in, annexed the territories. And that's where we are now.

The "Peace" at the end of the Cold War brought us here exactly how the "Peace" at the end of the First World War brought us to WWII.

What can I say? You don't know history, all of this is Greek to you and your precious media ordered you to believe something else...

Let me put it another way: Russia is there to stay. They don't give a fat flying fuct what you think. And this ends either when someone slaps Zelenky upside the head so hard that a clue sneaks in, or with a nuclear exchange. When that nuclear exchange happens there is nothing you wouldn't give to go back to this moment, throw that whole stinking cesspool of a Whitehouse is jail and broker a peace that the fascists in the Ukraine and the selfish bastards in the E.U. don't want.

The problem with filth like you is that you're never thinking about tomorrow or the next day. You're incapable of stopping & asking yourself, "What happens next?" And you're also not bright enough to listen to adults instead of wetting your pants and crying until you get what you want.

[dzthenerd490]

News Post

Palestine

‘Heinous massacre’: Israel’s attack on Rafah tent camp widely condemned | Israel-Palestine conflict News | Al Jazeera

Palestinian medics say Israeli airstrikes kill 35 in Rafah : NPR

Israel's Envoy to Ireland, Recalled in Palestine Dispute, Warns of Tech Impact (usnews.com)

Israel-Gaza briefings: How plans for ‘the day after’ could help end war in Gaza (bbc.com)

Ukraine

Ukraine war: Force Russia to make peace, Zelensky urges West (bbc.com)

Putin says Ukraine's Zelenskiy lacks legitimacy after term expired | Reuters

Ukraine Attacks Russian Radar at Record Distance: Kyiv (newsweek.com)

West should rethink restrictions on weapons for Ukraine: NATO chief | Euronews

Sudan

More than 100 killed in two weeks of fighting in Sudan’s el-Fasher: MSF | News | Al Jazeera

Sudan civil war: Death toll in El Fasher reaches 134 amid deadly fighting, MSF says | CNN

https://sudantribune.com/article286118/

Sudan: 2.5m people could die from hunger by September 2024, warns Dutch think tank | Middle East Eye

[darkmaga-retard]

Joachim Hagopian

With the precedent already set this week, a number of close allied leaders are aggressively pushing the greenlight for Ukraine to use their Western delivered long-range weapons to target sites deep inside Russia, including Moscow. It seems that we are now just hours away from all the Western puppet powers, including the big cheese paper tiger US, granting Kiev its greenlit license to doomsday. Five days ago, Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans boldly asserted:

The right to self-defense does not end 100 kilometers from the border. We have not placed any operational restrictions on Ukraine regarding distance. Yes, Ukraine can use our weapons on Russian territory for self-defense in accordance with international law. Kyiv has the right to defend itself. If the country is attacked from border areas or Russian airfields, it can target military objects. The same applies to enemy missiles — they can also be intercepted by our weapons over Russian territory.

On Friday the 13th while UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and US President Joe Biden were meeting to discuss the weapons greenlight, cheerleading Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau egged them on jumping aboard this Western puppet bandwagon:

Canada fully supports Ukraine using long-range weaponry to prevent and interdict Russia’s continued ability to degrade Ukrainian civilians (and) infrastructure, and mostly to kill innocent civilians in their unjust war.

On Saturday September 14th the NATO Military Committee Chair Dutch Adm. Rob Bauer joined the growing chorus maintaining Ukraine’s solid military and legal right to hit farther away Russian targets:

Every nation that is attacked has the right to defend itself. And that right doesn’t stop at the border of your own nation.

Ukraine’s use of longer-range Western missiles targeting deeper inside Russia (France’s SCALPs and UK’s Storm Shadows 250 km/155 miles; US’ ATACMs 300 km/187 miles) have been the big topic this week, especially after Thursday September 12th when Russian President Vladimir Putin verbalized his strongest words yet warning the West against it:

This will mean that NATO countries, the U.S. and European countries are at war with Russia. And if this is so, then, bearing in mind the change in the very essence of this conflict, we will make appropriate decisions based on the threats that will be created for us.

[beardedmrbean]

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia is ready to negotiate on the war in Ukraine, in an interview with Chinese media.

Russia has "never refused to negotiate," Putin was quoted saying, according to China's state-run Xinhua news agency. It seeks a "comprehensive, sustainable and just settlement of this conflict through peaceful means."

Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.

Putin is set to visit Beijing Thursday for two days at the invitation of Chinese President Xi Jinping, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said Tuesday.

Xi and Putin will "have a detailed discussion on the entire range of issues related to the comprehensive partnership and strategic cooperation and determine the new directions for further development of cooperation between Russia and China,” the Kremlin said in a statement.

They will “also have a detailed exchange of opinions on the most acute international and regional issues," it added.

Russia has intensified its attacks on the Kharkiv region in northeastern Ukraine in the past week, forcing nearly 8,000 people to leave their homes.

China says it is a neutral party in the Ukraine conflict. But it has economically, politically and rhetorically backed Russia and refuses to condemn Moscow’s offensive.

“I don't think Xi is going to be 100% supportive of Russia's continuing hostilities,” Lyle Morris, a senior fellow at Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis, told VOA. “I think Putin knows that. So, his hand is getting weaker.”

Putin said that China understands the origins of the Ukraine crisis and has a sincere desire to stabilize the situation, according to Xinhua.

Just weeks before Russian troops invaded Ukraine in 2022, Xi and Putin signed a pledge declaring their “no-limits” bilateral partnership. Beijing has since become Moscow’s most reliable economic and diplomatic partner as Western nations have imposed strict economic sanctions in response to the invasion.

“China is becoming steadily more important” in Russia and China's relationship, Edward Lucas, senior adviser at the Center for European Policy Analysis, told VOA.

Putin’s “number one issue is help on Ukraine,” he said. “He wants diplomatic help. He wants help with breaking sanctions. He would like more weapons.”

Lucas said Xi's interest is slightly different. Xi “doesn't want Russia to lose, but he also doesn't want Russia to escalate going up the nuclear ladder,” he said.

Putin’s trip to China will be his first foreign visit since he was reelected in March for a fifth term in office. The trip is his second visit to China in six months.

He traveled to Beijing in October to attend a forum on China's “Belt and Road” initiative, a project launched by Xi a decade ago to build global infrastructure and energy networks connecting Asia with Europe and Africa.

[lethimfertilise]

Market participants kept exchanging news about Egyptian urea production yesterday:

“MOPCO - no change…”

“Abu Qir is down due to technical issues rather than gas supply.”

“AlexFert is 100% down due to gas supply.”

“KIMA's production is halted 100%.”

“Helwan's production is halted 100%.”

It reminded me of another story related to the gas supply cutoff and its influence on urea prices.

In the 2000s, the Port of Yuzhny in Ukraine played a crucial role in the export of urea. The terminal at Yuzhny is one of the largest for fertilizer exports in Ukraine, with an annual capacity of 3.5 million tons. Due to its geographical location, urea routes from Yuzhny included small vessels to the Turkish Black Sea ports, as well as Panamax cargoes to India.

Indirectly, many countries and market participants were involved in the 2008-2009 gas dispute between Russia and Ukraine. It was primarily driven by disagreements over gas prices, debts, and political tensions.

Gazprom, the Russian state-owned gas company, sought to increase the price of gas sold to Ukraine from the heavily subsidized rates that had been in place since the Soviet era to market rates. This was part of Russia's broader strategy to transition former Soviet states to market prices for gas.

There were significant disagreements over the amounts owed by Ukraine to Gazprom for past gas deliveries. Russia claimed that Ukraine had accumulated substantial unpaid debts, which Ukraine disputed. These debts were a central issue in the negotiations leading up to the gas cut-off.

Last but not least, the Kremlin was trying to exact revenge for a painful defeat during the Orange Revolution in 2004, when Moscow’s protégé Victor Yanukovich lost his presidential battle to the west-oriented candidate Victor Yushchenko.

On January 1, 2009, Gazprom cut off gas supplies to Ukraine after negotiations failed to resolve the pricing and debt issues. The moment of the gas cutoff was widely broadcast on Russian TV. This disruption affected not only Ukraine but also several European countries that relied on gas transiting through Ukraine. Additionally, it was a particularly cold winter.

Urea prices reacted quickly: according to CRU, Urea Prilled Bulk FOB Black Sea price changed from $215 per metric ton on December 25, 2008, to $283 per metric ton on January 15, 2009. I remember it painfully well, as one of my Ukrainian suppliers had declared Force Majeure and never supplied the tons after the gas dispute was over.

Prices held in the high-280s per metric ton FOB Yuzhny until mid-March 2009, before starting to correct downwards.

Happily, the current Egyptian situation is not related to any political conflicts but is a consequence of extremely hot weather in the region. The forecast predicts daytime temperatures above 40°C for at least 5 more days.

Let’s wait and see.

#urea #ukraine #russia #gas #fertilizers #fertilisers #odesa #yuzhny #cru #price #imstory

[georgegraphys]

it bugs me how not even a template to support palestinians most of f1 drivers can’t even post, i wanted to know from what you think from your job experience/pr views if they are not saying nothing because of sponsors (ofc it doens’t justify it but i like your opinions towards that kind of topic)

some footballers are supporting palestine and most of them have zionists sponsors/team owners etc so i don’t understand

Ohh this is interesting. But I honestly can't answer much since I don't know much about work cultures in respectful countries those F1 drivers work nor the sponsors dynamics (contracts, relationship, obligation) but I'll try?

I came from a country that supports Palestine and Palestinian's freedom. We acknowledged Palestine as a country. As I've said before, I'm a Geophysics student before and in our curriculum, the map in our country includes Palestine, not isn'treal. To ME and to my country, a country named isn'treal does not and will NEVER exist. It is just a war criminal state. Palestine will always be the only country that exists. But this stance obviously comes from me who lives in a country that supports Palestine 100%.

I do think some of the F1 drivers are not tied that strictly to sponsors obligations. I'm not gonna name them because I don't know for sure which one. But it could be those from lower teams with lesser sponsors because uhhh technically some sponsors work like "you pay more=you follow these rules more, you pay less=you don't need to follow much". I don't think these sponsors explicitly restrict someone on speaking out regarding the war going on right now as you know how they speak up about Russia-Ukraine war or other atrocities committed around the world. There are indeed possibilities that some might restrict them like probably that zionist HP? But I don't think these sponsors can actually threaten these drivers MESSILY. They're F1 drivers anyway. Only 20 actively exist in this world every year.

I actually thought of this topic as well because you know how some of the teams are funded by the middle east money and how the middle east (by logic) should've supported Palestine (i know they don't really :( in the end and i hope they did one day... like that's our brothers and sisters come on...) and F1 itself is heavily supported by those companies. You'd think they'd support or encourage the drivers to post something but sadly no. It is very disappointing but you have to accept the fact that these corporations and rich countries don't care and they don't bother to encourage something.

I'm very sorry for saying this but I don't think sponsors are the main catalyst as to why they don't AT THE VERY LEAST speak out or put up a post like "no children deserves to get hurt" (like what I see in some of the footballers. no explicit show of support sometimes but they say these words). I do think it's the drivers themselves 😃. Again, I don't come from their country and I have no idea about their stance there. A stance on things like that actually stems from the country's history as well. I came from a country that has supported Palestine since forever that's part of the reason why I've been to get educated on the conflict. But we're talking about F1 drivers whose last education is probably 6th grade primary school. Their lives revolve around a kart and a car. Maybe they are scared to speak out on those things. The fear of saying wrong things. The fear of ruining their image and upsetting one side of the fan. It's a part of a public figure's daily life. But you have to SADLY know that this is part of rich people's ignorance as well. They think being neutral is something. They don't want to 'taint' their name, getting dragged to shits while it's literally standing up for human rights and justice. These are the basic characteristics of rich people.

So anon, I don't think this is too much of a sponsor problem/restriction. Yes it MAY happen but I do think that the main problem lies in the country they live in, the culture, the environment they grow up and themselves. The ignorance. The privilege. Those things made them turn away from speaking out against those 'controversial' things. Sometimes they might view these things as a 'loss' and their mindset is probably "well i can't stop the war as well 🥴 why should i speak out" again... It's a very complex matter.

As to why the footballers have more freedom in expressing things, I do think the fact that football is a bigger and more diverse field comes to play. The fans there are not just a bunch of rich white people. The players are diverse. When being in a diverse environment, sometimes that changes you and forces you to educate yourself as well. And the fact that probably in football, where the people vary and what's important is performance on the field, makes the sponsor not matter really much. In formula one, the sponsors are presented in a more flashy way judging by the PR duties done by the drivers (literally ad filming, modelling, etc 24/7) and the brand coverage, that might also be the reason why F1 sponsors can be more powerful and have that influence more than those sponsors in football because in F1, the PR things are still really strong and also one of the strong points that represents a driver/trams. I doubt footballers do as much PR as F1 drivers. Also look at Formula One! The people of colors there are the 1% and sometimes they even got the worst hate and the fans are a bunch of white traditionalists who are also ignorant to these things. Like fan like sports ig 🤷🏻‍♀️

I feel like this is the best answer i can give? I hope it helps anon and sorry if I don't answer much 🙏

[rajwillwrite]

World on Fire

By Raj Chauhan

According to the ACLED index, 50 Countries in the world are either currently at war or debilitated by ongoing violence at the beginning of 2024. 1 out of 6 humans is exposed to armed conflicts in one way or another and what's most concerning is the level of violence worldwide has been steadily increasing in the past few years. 2023 witnessed, a 12% increase in unrest over 2022, and a 20% increase over 2019. Most of us are acutely aware of two main conflicts going on at the moment the war between Russia and Ukraine and the conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.

But the media doesn’t give much coverage to conflicts in many other parts of the globe. So much of the blood continues with little attention. The truth is much more is going on than you probably realize and diplomatic tensions international conflicts and civil wars have continued to heat up in the past few months.

In this piece of work, we will go over as many ongoing conflicts as possible and uncover many ill-known strategies of the world and as we move ahead we will discuss less and less known wars that the media fails to cover.

So, arguably the third most well-known conflict is between Armenia and Azerbaijan, over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, since the days of the Soviet Union, both countries were part of Russia has long acted as the mediator between these two small countries but Russia’s attention now elsewhere the delicate balance has been offended, despite US efforts to mediate in June last year, the self-proclaimed Republic of Asdac, ruled by the Armenian majority enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, since the 1990s which is surrounded by the Azerbaijan. Russia's peacekeepers have protected the Lachin Corridor a vital route for supplies like food and medicines flowing from Armenia but after they left Azerbaijan took advantage and blockaded the corridor in December 2022 causing severe shortages.

On September 19th, 2023 Azerbaijan sent as many as 1,00,000 troopers to invade the Nagorno-Karabakh region. In 24 hours, Azerbaijan troopers completely took over it and Asdac officially seized to exist on January 1st, 2024 with Armenia weakened and threatened by neighbouring Turkey and abandoned by its international allies. Azerbaijan remains officially at war with the country, and fear that the situation could explode soon as Azerbaijan started demanding a corridor through Armenia to connect the exclave of Nakhchivan to the rest of the country.

However, a little farther to the east lies one of the longest ongoing border disputes in the recent history between the recent history between the ex-Soviet Republic of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. The news surfaced worldwide in September 2022 when reputed media reported on lives lost in the conflict.

Kyrgyzstan-Tajiskistan border clashes claim nearly 100 lives.

                                                                                         -BBC

24 were Killed on the Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan border in the latest fighting to hit the former Soviet Union.

                                                                                         -CNN

The new casualties along the border led to the fear of spiralling instability now that Russia, which is now distracted could no longer mediate the dispute the conflict continues to claim occasional victims with intermittent skirmishes but Turkey has stepped in to try and negotiate a border agreement deal between the two countries.

Now let us move to Africa where regional instability in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo threatens to become a regional conflict. Between 2022 and 2023, a dangerous political crisis spilled over the border into neighbouring Rwanda. Over the past decade, the ethnic Tutsi rebels in the east of the country formed a rebel military group against the national government in June. North Kivu region – M23 movement.

In June 2022, the Congolese government accused neighbouring Rwanda of backing rebels which was later confirmed true by UN experts. The situation has led to a border crisis between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda in 2024 and the situation continues to deteriorate rapidly after Burundi accused Rwanda of actually training rebels of the same ‘Red Tobara Movement’ that tried to overthrow the Burundian government in 2015. Many fear the war will spread into the greater East African Region.

Another potential International war could break out between Venezuela and Guyana after Venezuelans voted to claim a huge chunk of Guyana's territory and send troops to the border war is not always a conflict between two nations, you see civil wars are happening in all different parts of the world. Yemen has been involved in a brutal civil war since 2014, between the Saudi-backed government coalition and Iran-backed Houthis rebels. The situation is already dire enough with as much as 75% of the population left in need of humanitarian aid and close to half of the Yemens population currently facing the risk of starvation due to the ongoing conflict. Right now the country is sparsely controlled by a handful of different factions beyond the Houthis rebels controlling the capital ‘Sanaa’ and all of the former North Yemen except the Eastern Marib Government, and the official government controlling much of the Eastern side of the country. Jihadist groups are taking advantage of local dire situations here and there. In addition to that the STC otherwise known as the Southern Transitional Council Movement is profiting from the support of UAE to seize control over to power the southern portion of the country to claim its independence pretty much like Yemen was split before it united in 1990. Yemen Civil war has yet again made news as ‘Houthis’ have been firing rockets across the Middle East against Israel in retaliation for the military operation against ‘Hamas’. This is contributing to the disruptions to global trade in the focal point of the ‘Bab el Mandeb Strait’ forcing cargo ships around Africa to deliver goods to Europe in Response, Western forces like the US and the UK have summoned attacks on the Houthi military targets.

Another civil war is carried on in Myanmar, where the military Junta returned to power in a Brutal Coup in 2021. The situation heated up in October 2023, when the different rebel factions brokered a deal to unite against the military government in a Joint offensive operation that has now displaced more than 3,50,000 people from their homes.

Moving back to Africa to a small country of Cameroon has also suffered a Civil War since 2016 when separatist from the Ambazonia Region declared their independence. If we look into Cameroon’s history it was once split into French and British colonies. The result is that the Amabazonia region is English-speaking while the rest of the country speaks French. This crisis is called the Anglophone War as the English-speaking minority fights against the wealthier and more powerful Francophone majority.

Elsewhere on the continent (Africa) Sudan is being torn apart by civil war, where military factions ripped open old wounds when they staged a coup in 2021. The United Nations is seriously concerned about the stability of the country as millions of people have been displaced to refugee camps and growing clashes threatened to spill over into South Sudan which gained its independence from Sudan in 2011.

Perhaps one of the worst situations in Africa is currently in Ethiopia's ‘Tigray’ region (North). Already one of the poorest areas of the country Tigray is scared by poor conflicts that led to the independence of the Eritrea region in the 1990s. The war with Eritrea left a strong Ethiopian military presence in the Tigray region which is home to the Tigrain people who have long enjoyed a degree of autonomy. However, the tide changed in 2021, when the current prime minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party gained a large majority in the European Parliament and called for more centralization of power. Tigray’s subsequent rebellion was severely repressed. Pushing three and a half million people or more than half of its population to the brink of starvation tension already came to a boiling point in November 2020 when the Ethiopian Federal force invaded the Tigray capital Nekelle. They installed an interim government after the previous administration authorized new parliamentary elections despite a ban by Prime Minister Abiy due to the pandemic. More recently Abiy Ahmed has decided to divert international attention from Tigray by threatening neighbour Eritrea to six years after the last standing peace deal between the two countries which had earned him a Nobel Peace Prize. The issue at hand is Eritrea’s independence which made Ethiopia a landlocked country denying it access to the global trade opportunities of the Red Sea. Ethiopia is now threatening to regain Red Sea access by force for the time being Ethiopia seeking to establish a port in the neighbouring Somaliland a de-facto independent region of Somalia. If this idea is successful war could spread to the entire ‘Horn of Africa’ and beyond as Ethiopia is promised to formally recognize and protect Somaliland in return for the deal has irritated neighbouring Egypt and Somalia.

The list of other Civil wars and unrest is unfortunately quite long so we will quickly mention the recent coupes in Niger, Gabon, Burkina Faso, and Sierra Leone. There is reasonable suspicion that Russia is behind some of these geo-political shifts of power in Africa or that they are at least taking advantage of ongoing tensions between several African countries and France. Western neglect and lack of involvement in the region have paved the way for terrorist on nationalist groups to overthrow pro-western governments or long-established dictatorships. The disappearance of the mercenary group has opened the doors to other influences in the Sahel region, as China expands its presence in the area. Lastly, central America’s Affliction of organized crime and cartels is getting out of the land as conflict develops into proper civil wars according to many analysts.

Cartel turf war rages in Mexico Chiapas as groups fight over territory.

                                                                                                       -France 24(2023)

Honduras Declares war against gangs and for Control of popular Narratives.

    -The Guardian

Honduras declares war against gangs that are causing rest on the national level.

Haiti’s government has lost control over public safety as gang conflict overwhelmed the capital Port-au-Prince- Prince causing more than 5,000 civilian deaths in 2023 alone. The UN has declared an emergency and will be sending troops to keep the peace. Similarly, Mexico’s long-standing problem with the drug cartel is reaching a point of no return which pushed President Joe Bidden to temporarily send 1,500 troops to patrol the US border and tackle the resulting migrant crisis. As a result, Mexico has been labelled as the fourth most violent country in the world, despite not being a part of any war.

On the other side of the region, drug cartels have reportedly been funding civil unrest and gang movement in Ecuador effectively crippling control of the government's ability and capacity to maintain order in some regions. The one bright spot of the region is El Salvador where President Nayib Bukele seems to have fixed the country. Unbelievable gang problems with Authoritarian measures like throwing anyone suspected of gang membership in jail. The country's homicide rate dropped from 1,147 to 556 in the past few years.

But giving up freedom for security is worth the price.

It is up to you to decide that. But we have more to worry about than ongoing conflicts and civil wars because many disputes threaten to become Tomorrow's wars.

The globe has become significantly more violent in recent years, conflict event rates grew by more than 40% between 2020 and 2023, and by 12% in 2023 compared to 2022 rates. However, 2020 was a less violent year than 2018-2019, when hostilities in Afghanistan and Syria raged. In comparison to prior years, the gain in 2023 remains large, at an average of 20%.

As of January 2024, 15 nations' Index rankings had improved over the five years from 2019 to 2023, while 16 had seen deteriorating levels of violence. Sixteen nations have constantly been classified as having 'severe' or 'high' conflict levels, with no change from 2019 to 2023. Overall, among the 50 nations at the top of the Index, more than half (42) are facing continuous or growing levels of violence compared to 2019. In the six months between the Index's mid-year update (July 2023) and the conclusion of the year, eight nations saw deteriorating levels of conflict, with three of those countries (Palestine, Haiti, and Sudan) falling into the 'severe' conflict category.

Source: ACLED index

Taiwan recently elected the most pro-independence leader (William Lai) as their president since it became a democracy and Chinese President Xi Jinping responded with a threat in his recent New Year speech, claiming that China will surely protect its territorial integrity. The threat in the Asia-Pacific region comes at an opportunity moment as the US and its allies are occupied with Ukraine and distracted by internal politics. Japan is preparing for the worst and plans to rearm itself to a level unseen since World War 2.

Moving on to the Mediterranean Island partially occupied by Turkey since 1974, Cyprus where recent incidents have pushed Turkey (Cypriots) to attack UN peacekeepers inside the buffer zone.

UN peacekeeper hurt in Cyprus buffer zone clash with Turkish Forces.

                                                                             -Reuter (2023) 

Splitting the Island in two. This attack has been condemned as a serious escalation pushing Cyprus's president to announce an increase in military spending by 2% of its GDP. Lastly, many are concerned about the potential spill over of the Israel-Gaza conflict, especially as Israel targets, Iran-backed Hezbollah fighters inside Lebanon territory all while Western allies target Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. Everybody is watching closely for Iran's response which has been surprisingly tempered as far except for a surprise ballistic attack in Erbil, Iraq. Erbil the capital of Iraq’s autonomous Kurdish region is home to both a US consulate and an alleged Israeli spy base but the chance that major Middle-Eastern players like Iran will enter the conflict is heightened by the recent crisis at the eastern border. 2023 ended with Iranian Border forces skirmishing with Afghani Taliban over the border dispute. After New Year's Iran and Pakistan started attacking each other's border provinces with ballistic missiles in a sudden act of hostility the conflict seems to have been resolved for now as the aim on both sides was to attack groups acting in both countries towards independence of the cross-region of Baluchistan. Still, border tension remains high as neither Pakistan nor Iran wants to appear weak or accommodating in such a tense period for geo-political relations.

Russian President Vladimir Putin called for restraint from both Israel and Iran following a major escalation in tensions. Iran launched a large drone and missile attack on Israel over the weekend, in retaliation for an Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus.

The Kremlin warned of "catastrophic consequences" for the Middle East if tensions escalate further.

Iran claims its attack was a limited response to the Israeli strike, which killed several Iranian military officials.

Both Russia and Iran agree on the need for a Palestinian state based on pre-1967 borders. However, the situation is complicated by Russia's recent purchase of Iranian weapons, which are being used in the war in Ukraine.

Renewed clashes along the northeastern border of Ukraine have triggered a fresh wave of displacement, with over 1,700 civilians forced to flee their homes. Russia's Ministry of Defence reported capturing five villages in a recent ground offensive. Ukrainian officials haven't confirmed these claims, but acknowledge ongoing fighting in some of the contested areas. The city of Vovchansk has borne the brunt of the attacks, with relentless airstrikes and rocket barrages causing widespread destruction.  Journalists witnessed numerous air attacks and documented damaged buildings, some ablaze. The Associated Press described a harrowing scene of deserted streets, smouldering buildings, and the constant threat of air raids.

A bitter dispute between Mexico and Ecuador has erupted after Ecuadorian police raided the Mexican embassy in Quito to arrest a former vice president.  Mexico has severed diplomatic relations and is considering legal action against Ecuador. The incident has divided Latin America, with some countries condemning Ecuador's actions and others expressing support.  Colombia and Nicaragua have followed Mexico in severing ties with Ecuador.

[ukrainenews]

Daily Wrap Up February 25-26, 2023

Under the cut:

Ukrainian troops are standing their ground around Bakhmut despite a significant concentration of Russian forces near the eastern town, a Ukrainian commander said Saturday.

For the first time since the two countries established diplomatic relations 30 years ago, a Saudi foreign minister has visited Ukraine. "Ukraine will receive real help from Saudi Arabia," the Ukrainian official said. "The Presidential Office signed two documents formalizing a $400 million aid package to Ukraine: $100 million in humanitarian aid and $300 million in oil products."

The delivery of 12 Mi-8 MTV-1 and two Mi-8 T helicopters from Croatia to Ukraine is underway, Croatian newspaper Jutarnji said it had learned, without citing its sources.

Poland’s largest oil company, PKN Orlen, has stopped receiving oil via the Druzhba pipeline from Russia, its chief executive officer, Daniel Obajtek, has said.

Explosions have reportedly been heard in the Russian-occupied city of Mariupol in southern Ukraine, according to Petro Andriushchenko, an adviser to the exiled city’s mayor. The explosions were reported in the location of a large Russian military personnel cluster, he said.

“Ukrainian troops are standing their ground around Bakhmut despite a significant concentration of Russian forces near the eastern town, a Ukrainian commander said Saturday.

Cmdr. Yuriy Fedorovych Madyar, a colonel in Ukraine's military, published a video message on his Telegram channel about the state of the fighting around Bakhmut, which remains one of the most fiercely contested territories in the war.

"Ukrainian troops have retained their positions on all three suburbs of Bakhmut — the northern, eastern and southern-southwestern. The enemy had no territorial successes," Madyar said. "Enemy assault operations were unsuccessful." The colonel said Ukrainian forces "don't see any additional accumulation" of Russian troops in these areas. Still, the concentration of Russian forces in Bakhmut is "already considerable," allowing the Russians "to launch assault operations several times a day."  

Madyar said the situation in the southern suburbs of Bakhut is stable, and that it's the northern suburbs that are proving "the most difficult part of the front lines to hold on to."

"There is a large number of enemy troops and high intensity of enemy assault operations," Madyar said, describing the situation in the northern suburbs. "Appropriate forces were sent there to prevent the enemy from implementing its plan to surround the city and its outskirts."   Madyar said that over the past week, the number of remaining civilians seen in the streets of Bakhmut "has fallen to zero."

What Russia is saying: Russia state news agency RIA Novosti carried a report this week showing a Russian soldier walking through the outskirts of Bakhmut, saying that Ukrainian forces have been holding on to their lines but retreating "occasionally."

And the Russian private military company Wagner has claimed that it now controls the village of Yahidne. The village is in the northern suburbs of Bakhmut — the same area that Madyar, the Ukrainian colonel, said was proving the most difficult to hold.

CNN has not been able to independently verify either side's claims on recent troop movements around Bakhmut.”-via CNN

~

“For the first time since the two countries established diplomatic relations 30 years ago, a Saudi foreign minister has visited Ukraine.

President Volodymyr Zelensky's office released a video of him meeting Saudi Arabia's Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud on Sunday.

Zelensky said he expected the meeting would "provide a new impetus to further intensification of our mutually beneficial dialogue."

"Thank you for supporting peace in Ukraine, our sovereignty, and territorial integrity," he continued. "This is very important for us and our society."

Saudi Arabia has steered a neutral course in the conflict. The Kingdom mediated a prisoner exchange last year, in which two American and five British citizens were released from Russian detention.

Andriy Yermak, head of the Ukrainian presidential office, called the meeting successful in a message on Telegram.

"Ukraine will receive real help from Saudi Arabia," the Ukrainian official said. "The Presidential Office signed two documents formalizing a $400 million aid package to Ukraine: $100 million in humanitarian aid and $300 million in oil products."

"Ukraine and Saudi Arabia have common challenges and experiences in dealing with them. We are talking about Iranian UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles, or drones) that were supplied to certain 'rebels' and attacked Saudi oil facilities," Yermak said, in a reference to the use of Iranian drones by Houthi forces in Yemen.

"Since last year, the same Iranian UAVs have been in possession of Russian terrorists and have been attacking Ukraine's energy infrastructure."”-via CNN

~

“The delivery of 12 Mi-8 MTV-1 and two Mi-8 T helicopters from Croatia to Ukraine is underway, Croatian newspaper Jutarnji said it had learned, without citing its sources.

As the Croatian government keeps all information on military aid confidential, the news outlet said obtaining official confirmation of the delivery was impossible.

Reports that Croatia's Defense Ministry would donate some of its Soviet-made Mi-8 helicopters to Ukraine emerged last year in November.

According to the outlet's sources, however, the helicopters are currently being disassembled and prepared for delivery and will be ready for transport in about ten days.

While Croatia's Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic has publicly voiced support for Ukraine, the country's president, Zoran Milanovic has repeatedly spoken out against providing military support to Ukraine as it defends against full-scale Russian invasion.

Jutarnji reported that Milanovic was angered by the announcement that Croatia would deliver helicopters to Ukraine last November, saying at the time that Croatia's Defense Ministry did not inform him how these helicopters would be replaced.

On Jan. 30, Milanovic criticized the West's decision to send tanks to Ukraine and said that the Russian-occupied Crimean Peninsula would "never again be part of Ukraine," prompting a response from Ukrainian officials.”-via Kyiv Independent

~

“Poland’s largest oil company, PKN Orlen, has stopped receiving oil via the Druzhba pipeline from Russia, its chief executive officer, Daniel Obajtek, has said.

Posting to Twitter, Obajtek said:

We’re effectively securing supplies. Russia has halted supplies to Poland, for which we are prepared.

Orlen said it could fully supply its refineries via sea and that consumers would not be affected by the halt.

The Druzhba pipeline, which supplies oil to Poland and Germany, as well as to Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, was exempted from EU sanctions to help countries with limited options for alternative deliveries.

Russian oil accounts for about 10% of Polish supply after Warsaw cut imports after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year.”-via The Guardian

~

“Explosions have reportedly been heard in the Russian-occupied city of Mariupol in southern Ukraine, according to Petro Andriushchenko, an adviser to the exiled city’s mayor.

The explosions were reported in the location of a large Russian military personnel cluster, he said.

Andriushchenko, posting on Telegram, wrote:

The sounds of explosions along the line of Yalta village / Yuryivka village (location of a large concentration of occupiers) in Mariupol district are reported. We verify the reports. Air raid alert was announced in Ukraine, but occupiers are struck.

“It’s a good trend,” he added.

Ukraine’s armed forces have in recent days claimed strikes on Mariupol, previously thought to be outside the effective range of Ukrainian missiles, Kyiv Post has reported.

Nataliya Humeniuk, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s armed forces, on Thursay said:

At this stage, we can only state that inaccessibility is a very relative concept. What is considered so remote that it is unreachable, is not always so. The direction of Mariupol is no longer completely unreachable for us.”-via The Guardian

[nicklloydnow]

“Russia has successfully conducted tests on parts of its next-generation "Poseidon" nuclear-capable torpedo, according to reports.

Testing of reactors for the Poseidon unmanned nuclear-powered underwater drones shows "their operability and safety have been confirmed," Russian state news agency RIA Novosti reported on June 23. The report was also shared on Russian-language social media channels.

"They are ready to work as intended," the Kremlin-backed outlet quoted an unnamed source "in the military-industrial complex." The first "sea tests" are scheduled for this summer.

The existence of the Poseidon "super-torpedo" was leaked to the international media in 2015 before it was formally announced in 2018. Moscow intends for the Poseidon, which can carry both conventional and nuclear warheads, to be a "second- or third-strike option that could ensure a retaliatory strike against U.S. cities," according to a Congressional Research Service (CRS) report from March 2022.

(…)

Also known as "Status-6" or "Kanyon," state media reported that the torpedo is 20 meters long and 1.8 meters in diameter, weighing in at around 100 tons. Sidharth Kaushal, a research fellow for seapower and missile defense at the Royal United Services Institute think tank, told Euronews Next in May 2022 that the weapon could have a range of at least 10,000 kilometers, or 6,200 miles.

(…)

The Russian state news agency Tass reported in January 2019 that the Russian Navy would put around 32 Poseidon drones on combat duty across four submarines, with each vessel carrying eight Poseidon torpedoes. These submarines would be part of Russia's Northern and Pacific fleets, the outlet said.

Special-purpose submarines, carrying the Poseidon "super-torpedo," will join the Pacific Fleet in the far eastern Kamchatka peninsula between the end of next year and the start of 2025, according to Tass.”

“We believe Russia’s continued observance of New START Treaty limits is increasingly unlikely. Russian President Vladimir Putin could rely more on nuclear weapons to compensate for his declining conventional performance in Ukraine. Should Russia do so and, on the worst day, choose to preemptively strike the U.S. nuclear arsenal in a crisis, President Putin has a range of options to employ against America’s intercontinental ballistic missile force. For this and other reasons discussed below, we believe that the United States should keep its intercontinental ballistic force “on alert” and maintain its “launch under attack” option to both ensure the force’s survivability in a conflict and deter adversaries from seriously contemplating a first strike.

(…)

While not stated directly, the only way to demonstrate a commitment to end the launch under attack option and to prevent the president from executing this option is to de-alert the force. These actions would be dangerous and would undermine America’s response to the rapid nuclear breakout of China and Russian aggression.

Montoya and Kemp are correct in suggesting that it is difficult to successfully eliminate land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles in a first strike because of the total number of weapons required for this task. The 400 missiles, across 450 silos, with 45 launch control centers, and the ability to launch from the Airborne Launch Control System, make the intercontinental ballistic missile leg of the nuclear triad a formidable challenge to a Russian first strike. These characteristics of the nation’s silo-based single-warhead missiles make them valuable; ensuring their destruction is a daunting task that enhances American deterrence.

(…)

Montoya and Kemp are correct in saying that “the United States currently maintains the option to launch under attack so that in the event of a first strike by Russia, U.S. silo-based missiles could be launched before they are destroyed.” An option does not constitute a posture or a doctrine.

The primary purpose of a launch under attack option is to enhance not missile survivability but deterrence. Deterrence is a psychological effect achieved in the mind of an adversary. The United States enhances deterrence by threatening cost imposition, reducing the benefits of action, and encouraging restraint. Launch under attack reduces the benefits of action by increasing uncertainty and perceived risk. President Putin does not know if he will strike empty silos.

(…)

With a ballistic missile force on alert, Russia must employ a shoot-shoot-look tactic because it must achieve complete destruction with a first strike or risk retaliation. This is necessary because the current launch under attack option forces Russian planners to employ a much higher percentage of the force in a first strike, hoping the United States does not launch its long-range missiles before Russian reentry vehicles strike their targets. This creates the uncertainty needed to deter a first strike.

It is also worth reiterating that a Russian first strike is highly unlikely prior to a breakout that gives the Russian military significantly more fielded warheads than the United States. In such a situation, launch under attack becomes even more important because a larger Russian arsenal means the percentage of their force needed to conduct a first strike decreases, and exchange ratios are meaningless.

(…)

Putin’s recent suspension of Russian participation in New START only underscores our view that any Russian strike on the United States will take place after a breakout that is unmatched by the United States. Given Russia’s track record for cheating on treaties (Convention on Biological and Toxic Weapons, Chemical Weapons Convention, Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, and Open Skies), it is unwise to think they would abide by treaty requirements prior to a nuclear strike on the United States.

(…)

Thus, arguments that suggest an attack on the missile fields are somehow acceptable because the submarine and bomber legs of the triad will go untouched in a conflict are fundamentally flawed. We assess that any attack will begin with attempts to blind the United States by taking out space-based integrated tactical warning and attack assessment capabilities, all while cyber attacks and sabotage attempt to take out command and control. In our assessment, attacks on submarine and bomber bases are also likely to precede or coincide with attacks across the missile fields.

Military planners must consider the enemy’s most dangerous course of action, in which a Russian attack employs surprise and, consistent with Russia’s operational approach, uses overwhelming force in an initial attack. This leaves the United States insufficient time to deploy the submarine fleet or load and disperse bombers. Under these conditions, ported submarines and much of the bomber fleet are early casualties in a Russian first strike. With the development of a second nuclear-armed peer adversary, America must take the steps necessary to enhance survivability across the triad.

Conclusion

We do agree with Montoya and Kemp when they write, “Instead of holding fast to the idea of immediate launch, it is far sounder to build a nuclear capability that can survive a first strike and for which decision-makers are not pressed to make decisions with incomplete information.” To achieve this objective, it will take strategic decisions like building mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles, increasing the number of hardened and deeply buried facilities, and placing strategic bombers on dispersed nuclear alert. Continuing on America’s current modernization trajectory will never achieve what both Montoya and Kemp and these authors desire.

It is important to maintain an on-alert missile force capable of launching under attack if the United States desires to deter Russia from contemplating a first strike on the nation’s missile fields. Removing the launch under attack option will not improve the credibility of American deterrence or reduce the risk of accidental detonation or war. It will only further undermine American credibility. With President Putin suspending Russian participation in the New START Treaty, a breakout from treaty restrictions cannot be ruled out. Such a decision would only make a launch under attack option even more important for maintaining deterrence.”

“These days, it is nuclear issues reawakened by the Ukrainian war, the widespread discussion of war with China provoked by the Taiwan dispute, the unsettled Iran question and the growing North Korean capability that are in the limelight. They are being treated as something novel under the sun. That is perplexing – and disturbing. Decades ago, very able minds conducted fine-grain examinations of the logic and psychology of nuclear strategy which produced analysis of remarkable sophistication. It acquired further authority by the experience of the past 70 years. Yet, today self-proclaimed experts and pundits take exceptional liberties that reflect neither focused thought nor history nor any awareness whatsoever that the matters they freely pronounce on have been addressed previously in a thorough-going fashion.

This situation has prompted me to attempt a summing up of what we have learned since 1945 and to apply it to present and prospective circumstances. It is intended to establish a conceptual framework for consideration of the two current deviations from orthodox nuclear wisdom that have gained currency: 1) the feasibility of employing low yield tactical nuclear weapons (TNW) to alter the balance in a conventional military conflict; 2) the possibility that the protagonists could engage in restricted nuclear exchanges without it escalating into a cataclysm. The commentary is unusually lengthy due to the inclusion of supplementary material. (…)

10. This above logic manifestly has been absorbed by everyone who has been in a position to order a nuclear strike. No civilian leader (and nearly all military commanders) with the authority to launch a nuclear attack ever believed that the result would be other than a massive exchange -mutual suicide for those with large arsenals. Certainly, that was true from the early 1960s onwards once the USSR had deployed reliable retaliatory nuclear weapons and the notion of ‘winning’ a nuclear exchange of any kind faded in the Pentagon and among its intellectual auxiliaries. This sobering reality did not encourage risk-taking at lower levels of conflict. Just the opposite.

(…)

2b. Two things deter: certainty (see ‘3’); and total uncertainty (see ‘1’ above). Certainty can take the form of tripwires: e.g. Tactical Nuclear Weapons in Europe deployed on the battlefield that almost surely would escalate into strategic, inter-continental exchanges. Certainty could take another form: “launch-on-warning.” That is to say, as soon as incoming missiles are detected – in whatever number, on whatever trajectory – ICBMs and SLBMs are activated and launched. That also obviates the risk that an incoming strike might ‘decapitate’ the targeted government’s leadership – leaving it paralyzed to respond. Knowledge that such arrangements are in place should be the ultimate deterrent to an intentional first-strike. However, in the event of an accidental launch or limited launch, you have committed both sides to suicide. The U.S. government never has stated that in has in place any such arrangement to provides a direct link between warning system and release of ICBMs – but there are recurrent assertions that in fact they have existed since Jimmy Carter’s day.

(…)

4d. In nuclear matters, it is dangerous to put together a team of intelligent strategic planners who have plenty of time and a mandate to think out of the box. They likely will generate intricate schemes which have a surface plausibility but in fact only a tenuous connection to reality. The performance of the RAND Corp in service to the Air Force confirms that fear. Here is an example of the extreme proposals that can emanate from this type of blue-sky thinking; One idea that got off the drawing board envisaged a reaction to signals that NORAD had picked up flights of Soviet missiles on a trajectory pointing to our own missile silos. It called for a synchronized startup of our 1,000 plus liquid-fueled ATLAS rocket engines which would produce such a tremendous reverberation as to stop the rotation of the earth for a micro-second. As a result, the Soviet missiles would miss their targets – winding up in Missouri cornfields, Mount Rushmore and Yellowstone Park instead. Physicists possessing a modicum of knowledge realized that it was a ridiculous expectation – and, if such a shock could be produced, the earth itself would split open. (See Ellsberg for a fuller account).

In short, the nuclear doctrine with attendant deployments that is most effective as deterrent is the worst to have in place were actual hostilities to break out.

Theoretically, there is a way to reconcile the two objectives: loudly announce that you have set in place launch-on-warning arrangements but refrain from doing so. Nobody is likely to call your bluff.

(…)

This reasoning highlights how reckless is both the idea that a conventional war between nuclear powers could be fought without escalating to the nuclear plane, and the belief that there is no escalatory ladder from battlefield TNWs and an all-out nuclear exchange.

7g. For a while, concocting nuclear scenarios – strategic (counterforce) and tactical focused on TNWs in Europe – was a sort of intellectual parlor game among defense intellectuals (including some military people). By the mid-70s, it ran its course as everyone came to accept the ‘Bomb’ even if they didn’t come to love it. The role of SLBMs in solidifying MAD was the capstone.

(…)

8h. Here is one general thought about extended deterrence as a ‘generic’ type. Throughout the Cold War years, the United States and its strategically dependent allies wrestled with the question of credibility. Years of mental tergiversations never resolved it. For one intrinsic reason: it is harder to convince an ally than it is to convince a potential enemy of your readiness to use the threat of retaliation to protect them. There are two aspects to this oddity. First, the enemy has to consider the psychology of only one other party; the ally has to consider the psychology of two other parties. Then, the enemy knows the full direct costs of underestimating our credibility and, in a nuclear setting, will always be ultra conservative in its calculations. By contrast, the ally that has not experienced the hard realities of both being a possible target of a nuclear attack and the possible originator of a nuclear attack cannot fully share in this psychology.

(…)

It is imperative that we restate and absorb the understanding acquired decades ago. For there is a new generation of writers on nuclear strategy that seems bent on either ignoring or rejecting it. One is the revival of “counterforce” doctrine. Simply put, “counterforce” is apposite to Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) in that it posits the possibility of fighting a winning a nuclear encounter. The postulated ability to destroy the retaliatory capability of the enemy through a first-strike that eliminates its missiles (land or sea-based), strategic bombers and nuclear tipped cruise missiles deployed on ships. Such a disarming blow, as the scenario goes, neutralizes the opponent’s deterrence – making the country hostage to your coercive demands. General speaking, it encourages risk-taking in crisis-management.

‘Counterforce’ concepts defined American nuclear war plans throughout the 1950s. Kennedy and McNamara forced modifications but the Single Integrated Operational Plan (SIOP) designed by the Joint Chiefs of Staff was amended only gradually. Right into the 1970s, the SIOP gave primacy to variations of ‘Counterforce’ doctrine – this despite the Soviet Union’s development of an assured second-strike retaliatory capability. They remain an integral part of the SIOP to this day.

“Counterforce” ideas always have encountered two analytical obstacles: one technical, the other psycho/political. In order to contemplate such a strategy,` one must have at its disposal missiles of extreme accuracy able to destroy hardened missile silos, means to detect and destroy nuclear armed submarines, and wide coastal coverage that ensures the targeting of surface vessels. This conjectured capability, moreover, must possess a degree of reliability and precision that makes success a near certainty. Otherwise, you open your country to destruction by the enemy’s surviving force – a small fraction of which are adequate to wreak intolerable damage on population centers. Any government that perceives even a slight vulnerability to a first-strike would, of course, reject the idea of playing a “counterforce game” and instead threaten massive retaliation.

New-age “counterforce” revivalists focus on technical advantages which might aid the aggressor. In particular, there is reference to improved missile accuracy aimed at hard targets.4 Reducing the CEP (Circular Error Probability) by a few tens of feet, though, is not the crucial variable. That number already has been extremely low (50 – 100 feet) for decades. Emphasis is also placed on improved tracking technique for detecting submarines. What lacks is assurance that the net effect is to reduce the odds on retaliation by SLBM to near zero. Unless one can do that, unilateral deterrence sets in.

That leads us to the second precondition: the ability to intimidate a nuclear armed opponent by a) demonstrating a first-strike capability or b) launching a comprehensive first-strike and daring the enemy to retaliate with the remnant of its own nuclear force and face destruction itself. The counter to the first, as noted above, is to threaten retaliation against high-value targets (cities) and perhaps to deploy and advertise “launch on warning” or trip-wire mechanisms. The counter to the second is a matter of will and emotion. Nobody considering a first-strike can know with confidence what the enemy’s state of mind and emotion would be in the hypothetical circumstances. When the stake is your continued existence as an organized society, no reasonably sane person(s) will tempt fate in the hope of guessing right.

(…)

All doctrines and strategies for nuclear war-fighting – whether of the ‘counterforce’ variety or TNW variety – are largely fanciful. Not only is their logic flawed, as demonstrated above, but they predicate a cool-headed rationality of individuals and institutions which is unrealistic. Human beings are not calculating machines, no matter how high their office or how grave the matters they treat. They are susceptible to emotions and impulses that can distort or even override pure rationality. When you place them in settings where multiple other human beings are involved under intense pressure, the possibility of deviating off the track of impeccable logic increases.

In truth, we have no grounds for assuming that government leaders, at multiple levels making decisions and charged with operationalizing them, will collectivity behave as postulated by nuclear war-fighting scenarios. Herman Kahn, the early Henry Kissinger, Thomas Schelling at times, and today’s self-conscious revisionists have fantasized about a world that doesn’t exist.* These days, when the head of the biggest nuclear power is Donald Trump, the purveyors of doctrines that feature intricate nuclear games are as deluded as the President himself.

(…)

Nuclear strategy is a bit like Marxism or Freudian analysis or market fundamentalist economics. A lot of superior minds deploy their talents to concoct ingenious elaborations of received Truth that demonstrate brilliant logic – but their conclusions are completely divorced from reality.”

[mariacallous]

Roman Pohorilyi was 22 when he started tracking Russian troop movements near Ukraine’s border. It was the fall of 2021, and he and a childhood friend, Ruslan Mykula, had been sharing news about foreign affairs to an audience of about 200 subscribers on a Telegram channel. It was just a hobby for them. Neither imagined that a year later their country would be in a state of absolute war with Russia, and that their hobby, which they called Deep State, would be tracking every aspect of it.

Although Deep State started as a news channel, it has become most famous for its open access map that charts the shifting front line of Russia’s invasion, and which has become a crucial tool for Ukrainians to keep track of the conflict that once threatened to overrun their country. On some days in late 2022, Deep State’s map received as many as 3 million views. Mykula showed WIRED a screenshot from the website’s dashboard that recorded more than 482 million views between June 2023 and June 2024.

Mykula and Pohorilyi created the map on the first day of the war, after recognizing a demand from their Telegram subscribers for frequent updates about what was happening. Pohorilyi was in the penultimate year of a law degree, and Mykula was working in marketing. But both had been learning open source intelligence skills to help verify videos of military activity that actors on all sides were publishing online.

The basic map itself, which a friend helped to design, is simple but precise. Territories occupied by Russia are shaded in red; those held by Ukraine are shaded in green. Blue marks areas that Ukraine has recently liberated. Known Russian units, airfields, and HQs are marked with small red squares; troop movements with arrows; and railways with black and white lines (Ukrainian positions are not shown). Zooming in, one can see detail down to the level of individual streets, villages, and tree lines. It looks like the board of a computer strategy game.

Over time, Deep State has added more advanced features and quirks to the map. A toolbar in the bottom-left corner offers the option to enable different layers, including weather patterns, fortifications, and gamma radiation levels in case of nuclear disaster. Users can simulate the effect of different weapons, calculating the range and potential damage of everything from self-propelled howitzers and ballistic missiles to Patriot air defense systems and nuclear explosions. A hidden Easter egg summons an animation of Baby Yoda that, when poked, uses the Force to destroy Russian units.

The map soon became too much for Mykula and Pohorilyi to manage alone; they now enlist the help of more than 100 paid employees and volunteers. Their methods have also evolved. They still use open source intelligence to verify new information, but also acquire data directly from frontline military units whom they’ve developed relationships with. In some cases, the authority of a single source whom they’ve learned to trust is enough, though Mykula admits there have been occasional errors. In other cases, when multiple sources contradict one another, they wait until definitive evidence emerges. Propaganda is rife on both sides, and Mykula insists that Deep State will take no part in it. “We want to win,” he says. “Propaganda will not win.”

Mykula and Pohorilyi do, however, oblige when Ukrainian military commanders request delays to map updates that may compromise their activities. They also receive some government funding for an alternate version of the map available only to verified members of the military. The government funding also goes toward other intelligence activities that Ruslan refuses to discuss; most of their funding comes from public donations.

Late in the first year of the war, Mykula and Pohorilyi learned that their map was helping another, unexpected group of users: Russian soldiers. The map’s designer had added a function that would display instructions to surrender if a user tried to access from a Russian IP address. Then, in October 2022, in an interview with a popular Ukrainian blogger, a Russian POW testified that he had used Deep State’s map for this exact purpose.

The success of Deep State’s map has attracted more users to their original Telegram channel, which now has more than 700,000 subscribers. It publishes its own original reports of the war, all available through a free app, which other established Ukrainian media organizations sometimes refer to. But the map remains the most popular product, used by Ukrainians at home and abroad to track the front line that, at the time of writing, creeps further toward their office in Kyiv every day.

Both Mykula and Pohorilyi approach their work with a stern dedication that belies their youth and inexperience. “We don’t want to disappoint our audience because our projects have become critical for Ukrainians,” Mykula says. “If you compare us to other maps, you will see that Ukrainians don’t go to check on them. They come to us.”