#I am not immune to inertia

[asinglesock]

If you see me posting motivational memes in excess please forgive me

[centrally-unplanned]

Atomic bombing of Hiroshima & Nagasaki: Based or Cringe?

Hiroshima = based, Nagaski = cringe, we having it both ways today baby!

But okay to not meme, this is a very complex question. Fundamentally, the mass-scale strategic bombing of civilian targets in World War Two was a dubiously effective policy that killed millions of innocent people. I judge no one for strategically bombing tank factories with the accuracy you had in 1943, that is just the harsh realities of that war, but that is not a description of what Allied strategy was (or not just, they also bombed tank factories). There were legions of air power proponents executing a strategy of "maximizing civilian casualties to break the back of the enemy", killing babies was the point, and the horrors of things like the firebombing of Tokyo are literally inconceivable to those who have never been in such times. Morality is not divorced from results - if it worked, if it made Germany & Japan surrender after a night of bloodied streets, then I would be hard-pressed to fault them. But that isn't what happened. It probably did something, sure, but the calculus is grim.

From that lens you can see Hiroshima as a culmination of a horrible strategy; but I don't think that is the only lens you have. World War Two was, in my opinion without peer, the highest stakes conflict humanity has ever fought. Nazi Germany's combination of dystopian vision and backed-by-steel ambition makes it the worst government to ever exist; Japan is certainly in the top 10 as far as these things go. And while we with our tables of GDP and steel output can say the Allies had it in the bag, that is never how people fighting a war see things.

Additionally, the methods of World War Two emerged from the almost-as-cataclysmic horrors of World War One; a conflict that utterly destroyed the governments of half the countries that fought it in. And their replacements were...not great! It was not a war that broke imperialism to usher in liberalism, even if steps were made that way. After WW1, people were desperate to find a way to fight the next war in a way that wouldn't condemn themselves to endless trench warfare they had gone through, one that wouldn't bring them to the brink of collapse, even if it fucked over the other guy.

Strategic bombing was born from this impulse - its founders truly hoped it would break the back of opposing nations, that once you "won air superiority" and started smacking Berlin the white flag would be raised. This didn't happen, but you didn't know that in 1941. Or in 1942. Or in 1943. Maybe it's just around the corner in 1944? You really want to stop now? 90% of Strategic Bombing Commands quit just before their enemy's will is finally broken, don't you know? In hindsight it is easy to say, in 1944, that they should have taken to foot off the pedal, that the war was won, and that this strat wasn't the way. And to be clear, they should have, they should have done that. Better men would have done that. But that is the high bar I am holding them too, not the floor. In this time period most people just didn't think civilians got spared in war, it was a different time. Morality's aim is universal, but the steps of the individual towards them can only be contextual. I think they were wrong, and to be clear by 1945 it was becoming quite obvious that the war was over and this was unnecessary. But few of us are so immune to the sins of inertia in a war.

From that lens, Hiroshima is the most justified civilian-targeted strategic bombing conducted in the entire war. Because unlike the inertia-creep of the Dresden firebombing, it had a very clear purpose - compel the Japanese government to surrender by demonstrating a weapon they could not hope to defeat, something that would save tens of thousands of American lives and likely hundreds of thousands of Japanese lives. I believe it did do that - not only do I think it was at least as important as the Soviet declaration of war, but the one-two punch of timing them together was a calculated psychological blow that certainly didn't hurt.

But more importantly Truman was not privy to the sessions of the Supreme Council for the Direction of the War, he could only guess where they stood. Within that context Hiroshima was a calculated gambit that makes sense; because strategically bombing civilian targets was the order of the day at that time, and that all the big solo-military targets were essentially bombed away at that point, the idea of some kind of "display" against a dummy target or something - to a government the US had barely any communication with, wasting a scarce resource - was just not politically in the cards. Hell, neglecting to bomb Kyoto for cultural reasons, and doing things like dropping leaflets warning civilians ahead of the attack to flee, were already tail-end of the humanitarian practices of the time. I cannot armchair judge Truman for making hard calls with the stakes as high as they were.

However, Nagasaki was a classic interia case. It was done because the US had the bomb and we were bombing cities. It made even less sense than campaigns before, because now the US had a "reason" to think surrender might be imminent, so giving it a few days had far more logic. This one I judge much more harshly. It was the decision of a system that just did violence by default. Which of course it was, it was World War Two. But results are morality - Hiroshima probably saved Japanese lives. Nagasaki did not. Them's the breaks.

[themarsbar]

i was tagged by @skibasyndrome (thank you amo ily <3<3<3) in this game but since the chain is getting long i'm making a new post

5 boring facts about me let's go

i am not immune to pomegranate inertia (it's when you start eating a pomegranate and you can't stop unless someone yanks it away or you eat it all)

i have a weird last name

i always wear two hair ties on my right wrist

i've been looking for a lavender essential oil that actually smells like lavender for years and i still haven't found one

i can't whistle

no pressure tags 💜 @justfriendsbestthings @impossibleknots @belly-aches @toffeelemon

[dankusner]

Devoted nap-takers explain benefits of sleeping on the job

HEALTH

Experts say proper rest is as important as diet and exercise; now, more people are finding ways to get a mid-day boost

NEW YORK — They snooze in parking garages, on side streets before the afternoon school run, in nap pods rented by the hour or stretched out in bed while working from home.

People who make a habit of sleeping on the job comprise a secret society of sorts within the U.S. labor force.

Inspired by famous power nappers Winston Churchill and Albert Einstein, today’s committed nap-takers often sneak in breaks because they think the practice will improve their cognitive performance but still carries a stigma.

Multiple studies have extolled the benefits of napping, such as enhanced memory and focus.

A mid-afternoon siesta is the norm in parts of Spain and Italy.

In China and Japan, nodding off is encouraged since working to the point of exhaustion is seen as a display of dedication, according to a study in the journal Sleep .

Yet it’s hard to catch a few Z’s during regular business hours in the U.S., where people who nap can be viewed as lazy.

The federal government even bans sleeping in its buildings while at work, except in rare circumstances.

Individuals who are willing and able to challenge the status quo are becoming less hesitant to describe the payoffs of taking a dose of microsleep.

Marvin Stockwell, the founder of PR firm Champion the Cause, takes short naps several times a week.

“They rejuvenate me in a way that I’m exponentially more useful and constructive and creative on the other side of a nap than I am when I’m forcing myself to gut through being tired,” Stockwell said.

Sleep is as important to good health as diet and exercise, but too many people don’t get enough of it, according to James Rowley, program director of the Sleep Medicine Fellowship at Rush University Medical Center.

Napping isn’t common in academia, where there’s constant pressure to publish, but University of Southern California lecturer Julianna Kirschner fits in daytime naps when she can. Kirschner studies social media, which she says is designed to deliver a dopamine rush to the brain.

Viewers lose track of time on the platforms, interrupting sleep.

Kirschner says she isn’t immune to this problem — hence, her occasional need to nap.

The key to effective napping is to keep the snooze sessions short, Rowley said.

Short naps can be restorative and are more likely to leave you more alert, he said.

“Most people don’t realize naps should be in the 15- to 20-minute range,” Rowley said.

“Anything longer, and you can have problems with sleep inertia, difficulty waking up, and you’re groggy.”

A matter of timing

Mid-afternoon is the ideal time for a nap because it coincides with a natural circadian dip, while napping after 6 p.m. may interfere with nocturnal sleep for those who work during daylight hours, said Michael Chee, director of the Centre for Sleep and Cognition at the National University of Singapore.

“Any duration of nap, you will feel recharged. It’s a relief valve. There are clear cognitive benefits,” Chee said.

A review of napping studies suggests that 30 minutes is the optimal nap length in terms of practicality and benefits, said Ruth Leong, a research fellow at the Singapore center.

“When people nap for too long, it may not be a sustainable practice, and also, really long naps that cross the two-hour mark affect nighttime sleep,” Leong said.

Experts recommend setting an alarm for 20 to 30 minutes, which gives nappers a few minutes to fall asleep.

But even a six-minute nap can be restorative and improve learning, said Valentin Dragoi, scientific director of the Center for Neural Systems Restoration, a research and treatment facility run by Houston Methodist Hospital and Rice University.

Bucking the trend

While workplace dozing is uncommon in the U.S., some companies and managers encourage it.

Will Bryk, founder of AI search startup Exa, swears by 20-minute power naps and ordered two sleeping pods for employees to use in his company’s San Francisco office.

Ice cream maker Ben & Jerry’s has had a nap room in its Vermont headquarters for a couple of decades, and a handful of employees use it, company spokesman Sean Greenwood said.

“Employees who feel taken care of are much more likely to use this responsibly,” he said.

Arianna Huffington, the celebrity author who co-founded the news website Huffington Post, became an advocate of a good night’s sleep and occasional naps after she collapsed from exhaustion in 2007.

She installed a nap room at her former company.

“If people have been up all night because of a sick child or a delayed flight, if they have the opportunity to nap, … then they will be much more productive and creative for the rest of the day instead of dragging themselves or trying to boost their energy through multiple coffees or cinnamon buns,” Huffington said in an email.

[boozeforblues]

Time Doesn’t Heal All Wounds, It Just Helps Them Find A Place To Hide

You should have known better, even though we were just kids The heavy price of living life on the skids Here I am, going back to the well that is your death I keep hoping it's as dry as your last breath But it seems I still have something to say Trying to figure out which figure to whom I'll pray Calling on Dymphna and other patron saints who can't Save us from ourselves, we're all looking to supplant The horrifying realities of our condition Living lives replete with feigned contrition Shadow boxing with memories, I've got the black eyes to prove it Life was a tumor and you figured out how to remove it The once living embodiment of being a victim of your own design Your ashes are gone, but your spirit has co-opted mine And you've haunted me for far too long If time has taught me anything, it's that I'm exactly as strong As you were at the end, it's been an entire lifetime since I've seen you I stopped telling myself that you didn't mean to I finally understand that I was powerless to stop you Your mind made itself up as soon as the crop flew From state to state, your wheel landed on depression We've both got the luck of the draw, and secession Was on the table, only your war was civil Too bad you couldn't make it past incoherent drivel Or maybe I just wasn't receptive back then And just like your cracked copies of 50 Cent and Mack 10 You're relegated to decades past, but I'm fruitlessly keeping this going Immune to the strengths you spent decades showing I'll keep your torch glowing every four years like the Olympiad Don't let the tenor fool you, I truly am glad That we wasted those years together Because this is a goddamn far cry from never Writing you annually like I'm in your debt A dear friend on a trip, take the gross with the net And cash in your chips like you haven't already This is just my crutch to keep myself steady I'll act like I'm holding you down, but it's vice versa Unwilling to budge, it's the ultimate display of inertia Emboldened by the prospect of matter over mind Giving poetical historians something to find In the trash heap of my useless words Pretending it's parity, but fully two thirds Of my sentiments seem to go ignored But when you're the subject, my work is adored You made your choice, but the consequence is mine All these years later, and I'm still not fine It's how I understand and pretend not to condone That your trigger finger may some day guide my own It's how I chose to believe you when you said you were okay A blank canvas that should have stayed that way Cliche of a cliche, I'm all out of clever metaphors When I think of all the things that this pen was never better for My only wish is that you were a lousy shot Writer's block for a friend who's not Here to tell me to put all my arrows away Hopefully I'll remember you without sadness one day All this time, I know you would hate the thought of me assuming responsibility For your morbid fascination with volatility Your cross to bear was to bear arms Robbing the world of all your charms So fuck you and your perfect aim I'm living out what was left of your shame I still remember taking a screwdriver to the door knob Turns out being you was a dangerous job…

[crystalelemental]

I know I’m in a bad mood, but I am going to try to be judicious with their overall performance and kits.  Because while I’m not happy, these kits are...enticing.

SYNGA SUIT HAU Hau got a Sygna Suit with Tapu Koko, and is an Electric Tech unit.  He gives Electric Terrain on entry and Extension 5, powers up moves of all allies while under Electric Terrain, and +1 special moves next when setting a field effect.  Moves are Dazzling Gleam, Fairy Wish, Buddy Electroweb which is AoE and doubles in power under terrain then hits -2 speed on foes and +2 speed for allies, and a trainer move that's +4 special attack and +2 crit for himself, then reduces sync countdown by 1 under Fairy Zone.  Instantly, this kid is trying to compete with SST Red, and while I appreciate his moxie, it's never going to work.  Red beats the game solo.  Thankfully, I like Hau better, and he offers what Red cannot: actual team support.  At 1/5, Hau is offering perfect Cakewalk/Inertia support in just three actions.  Adding in Fairy Zone support that speeds up sync cooldown is nice too.  This is great for a 1/5 pair.

Grid offers Adrenaline 1, Unfortuitous 9 which is great with his AoE moves, Fairy Wish Brain Gain 1 which is actually good this time because it means +2 stacks, Team Altered Field Dodge for evasion boosting when a field effect is set, it says Weird Vibes but I'm guessing it's the electric version, Whimsical Sync 5, MIND GAMES 9 HOLY SHIT, Shock Recovery, Power Plant to apply terrain again after sync, and Cakewalk.  His 5/5 nodes are Brain Gain 9, Quick Tempo, Unfortuitous, and Adrenaline.  Which...Unfortuitous is okay, but Brain Gain is the big bonus if you care.

Okay yeah, I actually like this one a lot.  He supplies some insanely useful tools for both Electric and Fairy pairs, but has unique tools broadly. Having a move that can be spammed right away that hits -2 foe speed and +2 team speed? That's Inertia and Cakewalk simultaneously.  Gordia and Lodge Serena are weeping with joy.  To say nothing of the Electric types that need those skills, like Sophocles.  And having Fairy Zone with -1 cooldown is ideal for SS Wally and Diantha.  And the special moves up next?  That's just icing.  Hau is actually great, at just 1/5, as a supportive boy for his team.  I am particularly stoked for Eevee Kris.  Nonstop infinite Terrain, with Mind Games at 3/5, is fantastic utility. I really like this.  Definitely getting 1/5, 3/5 debated. SYGNA SUIT MINA Mina. Why did Mina get Fini?  I just...ugh, I guess this is better than Hapu. Anyway.  Fairy Zone on entry and extension, so there's our answer: Misty Terrain isn't real.  I agree with this decision.  30% special damage reduction under Zone.  Ooooh, okay, +1 to both defenses for the team when any field effect is set.  Slow, but nice.  Draining Kiss, Rain Dance, Buddy Protect to give damage guard next to the team and restore 20% of their HP (30% if Fairy Zone) then resets stat debuffs, and trainer move gives crit defense +4 special attack and Gradual Healing to the team, alongside +2 more special attack if it's rainy.  Instantly, there is a problem.  We need crit rate.

Grid offers Team Sharp Entry which is great, Flabbergast 4 which is nice synergy with Wally and Bede, Sync Wall which is one I'm a personal fan of, Whimsical Immunity which is pretty nice, Fairy Kingdom which is the sickest entry skill ever for Fairy Zone, Barricade Buddies on Rain Dance, and Refreshing Rain.  5/5 nodes are Catalytic Kick on Rain Dance, Master Healer 1, Adrenaline, and Synchro Healing.

It's...okay. The good news is, that Team Sharp Entry and instant +6 under Rain is basically Diantha firing at full power on turn 2.  Any special attacker with Dire Hit+ in their kit is getting full benefits from Mina regardless, which is pretty nice. I do think it's important to note that her max special is two turn, thanks to Rain Dance, but if your support acts first in the rotation (which they should), then this is free money.  Turn 2 full power.  As long as you can buff your own crit by 2. The main issue with Mina is that, unlike Acerola, Fairy Zone and Rain do not synergize.  There aren't any sync pairs who need both.  So Mina has to be relegated to one or the other.  And Rain Support means competition with SS Kris.  While Mina is faster for basic offenses, this is a fight she cannot win.  Kris is miles ahead.  And C!Calem helps physical Rain, so Mina's left without much niche there.  Fairy Zone compression on support is really what she gains from this, and it's a pretty respectable niche.  But again, just like Acerola, the Zone won't last until second sync, so she's reliant on DPS allies if she's taking first sync.  Which, in Fairy?  Is basically none of them.  Certainly no one she wants. Diantha and/or SS Wally take first sync every time.   Bede and Valerie have shit for DPS.  NY!Lisia, the obvious DPS unit, is physical.  Mina is a really cool support without much of a niche right now. SYGNA SUIT LANA UUUUGH. Okay look, I don't like Lana.  She does absolutely nothing but chatter on about finding hunky swimmers, and listen.  If I don't like it when the men are perverts, I assure you I will not like it when the girls do it.  She's weird about it, and not in a good way.  She's just offputting to me, and I'm pissed they gave her Lele.  Literally anyone else would have been preferable, but this is my cross to bear.  Oh, and she's a strike, so get ready for some real heavy salt.

Psychic Terrain on entry and extension.  Powers up moves of all allies by 20% under Terrain.  Increases both moves up next when any field effect is activated, but unlike everyone else, only for herself. Moonblast, Psychic Terrain, Buddy Psycho Cut which is sure crit and Piercing Gaze and costs 2 less gauge under terrain.  Its power is fairly middling, and her offenses aren't great.  Trainer move gives +6 to both offenses, and SEUN.  Instantly, you can sense the problem, but I'll hold on to that for now.

Grid offers...I'm sorry is that Power Induction?  Is Hau's thing with Psychic not incorrect?  Weird.  Critical Sync so she doesn't need crit support, On a Roll 2 on Moonblast which is a 90%, Terrain MPR which none of the others got for their effects, Weird Might 4 to get +1 Physical Moves Up Next every time she attacks under terrain, Weird Charge 9 to regain 1 gauge when she attacks under terrain, Haymaker, Weird World for a second terrain application on sync, Propulsion on trainer move, and Furious Brain.  Her 5/5 tools are Adrenaline, Brainpower, Catalytic Kick on Terrain, and Impervious.

Okay, let's jump into the obvious: SS Lusamine has been waiting for Lele all her life.   Unfortunately, she received it as a joke.  Lele is stronger than Necrozma. Straight-up, its DPS and sync performance is far and away superior, with better self-sufficiency.  Sure, it can offer the needed terrain forever, and provides -1 sync cooldown to complete Lusamine's setup.  But who cares?  Lele's EX Strike sync clears CS just fine, and it's not like you'd run both in one comp in Gauntlet.  Lele wins even harder there, where everything is single-target, so Lusamine loses her only value as a no-penalty AoE DPS.  This is always the issue with these kinds of units.  They outshine the options they're supposed to be supporting, so they don't actually hold any value.  In order to perfectly complement Lusamine, you need 3/5 for that Propulsion.   Without it, Lana's just a minor 15% more move damage over Bianca.  Half a Furious Brain, hope it's worth it.  But on the other hand, if you want to just never run out of terrain, here's Lana with the steel chair.   Even just entry and 2MP on Psychic Terrain with extension is a guarantee of a whole fight.  So a 1/5 can't hurt, but it does come at the cost of variety like the other Tapu. SYGNA SUIT ACEROLA God, I know it's island-themed and appropriate but I hate the midriff exposing outfits so much.  Anyway.  Grass support, Grassy Terrain on entry with extension 5, reduces physical damage 30% under terrain, and physical moves up next +1 when anyone sets weather.  Bullet Seed which should've been Horn Leech, Sunny Day, Buddy Swords Dance to give +2 attack +1 physical moves and +2 gauge under sun each use so have fun with physical damage, and trainer move with 1MP giving +2 defense +3 crit and +2 speed if sunny.  And she's got gauge control.  Hot damn.   Acerola here is attempting to compress the roles of SS Morty and SS Lyra into one unit for the purposes of someone like SS Erika or SC Sonia.   It's an ambitious goal, but I respect it.

Grid gives Bullet Seed No Quarter and Tripping Stirke 4 which are fine.  Pep Rally on trainer move is fairly nice, +3 is about what you can expect out of SS Morty.  First Aid 4 and Safety Tether are nice.  Team Grassy Restoration approximates Morty as well.  Green Thumb is the second application on sync.  5/5 stuff is Recharging/Punishing Strike, Vigilance, and Adrenaline.

I'd say Acerola does well enough as a compression of Morty and Lyra.  It's not the worst job I've seen.  The main issue is one application of terrain.  Moreover, she's support.  So she wants first sync when possible, but Terrain won't last to second sync.  Extension 5 is double time, but if regular terrain won't last from entry to first, extended terrain won't last from entry to second.  Which is why Adrenaline was key, it saved a turn.   But it's 4/5, and at that point just take 3/5 with the second application man.  There's also the issue of SS Lyra having the guaranteed flinch, so like...I don't think Acerola quite competes with that.  Or with Morty's pop heal Potions.  She's trying her best, but she literally can't duplicate all the nonsense those two throw out.  If was an attempt though, I'll give her that.  What she does do is excel at Grass-type strikers who need Sun.  Because of SC Steven offering Rebuff, SEUN, and extra physical moves up next, and bottoming out defense.  Those two are the response to Morty and Lyra.  But it’s only for physical. LODGE ACEROLA Acerola is our lodge unit this time around.  She comes with Banette, which I love, but cannot mega evolve.  She's a support that emphasizes evasion. Uh-oh. Group Slapdash boosts team speed by 1 when she dodges, Fail Forward gives 1 gauge when she dodges, and Wide Awake prevents sleep.   Her moves are Confuse Ray, X Atk All, Phantom Force, and trainer move buffs +4 evasion, +2 crit, and Gradual Healing but that last bit only for herself.  Now, I believe that things like fail forward count when confuse denies an attack, and Phantom Force ensures a miss.  So she has means of capitalizing on this stuff by default.  What I'm hoping to see is Ridicure, Team Sharp Entry, and Stop Hitting Yourself.  But she's free so...

Static Cling 2 is interesting if inconsistent; she's partially responsive to Uxie. Offensive Defense 4 on Phantom Force is...choices, but at least she gets MPR. Recuperation 1 is...fine.  Stop Hitting Yourself 5!  Okay, that's nice.  Queue Cutter is a cute -1 sync cooldown 20% of the time when she dodges, too unreliable.  Tighten Up 4 is odd, because it relies on her getting hit. Quick Cure is nice.  Yeah, I guess 1/3 isn't the worst outcome, but this isn't good.  She has no real staying power.  Evasion play is high-risk high-reward, and most Gauntlet stages involve boosted accuracy, and eventually Piercing Gaze.  Her kit also doesn't cap attack or crit, so like...that's a pain.  Moreover, Hop exists, does her buffing job much better, and is more consistent.  Acerola's pulled between getting hit and not getting hit for random chance effects that don't amount to much.  I can't see this alt being particularly good.

VARIETY LANCE *sigh*   Lance and Dragonair.  You know, I have this whole thing where I like to think Clair keeps Dragonair because she's trying to differentiate herself.  And now that's gone.  I'm not mad.  Anyway,  Dragon Shift, so Hyper Beam.  Shocked Hit Freebie is a 50% chance for Free Moves Next when the foe is paralyzed, so already better than Caitlin.  Afflict Dragon TR Down, which is just applying Dragon rebuff when his Thunder Wave hits.  Dire Hit All+ is nice, and his trainer move is -1 sync cooldown, +4 special attack, +2 team speed, +1 team accuracy, and -20% of his own HP, because Lance cannot help himself.  It's better support than I would have given credit for.

Grid gives paralysis synergy 3, Brain Gain 2 broadly which feels legitimately insane, Brainpower because fuck Caitlin in particular, First Aid 4, Ramp Up 2 on trainer move for max special attack, Static Shock 5, and Go Viral...4 for some reason.  Yeah, this is good for what it is, and what it is is pure power.  Lance is pretty easy to understand here.  Self-setup, paralysis with potential spread, start firing Hyper Beam.  The ability to boost his own special moves next is kinda nuts.  I'm gonna be honest, I...might like this more than Dragonite.  Not that I'll pull for it.   Dragon isn't hard to come by.  But you know.  It's actually kinda decent, unlike a lot of the variety scouts with Kanto.

VARIETY AGATHA Variety Agatha is a Poison support with Arbok, which is...cute.  She can heal all allies a bit when attacking a foe under status (50% rate), boosts her own defenses by 1 stage each when using a move, and has Hostile Environment 1.  Moves are Acid, Wrap, Leer, and a trainer move with 1MP that boosts both offenses and crit rate by 2.  1MP.  Are you serious?

Grid gets Hostile Environment 2, Team Sharp Entry, Hit And Heal (just for herself), All Ramped Up and Berserk Bunch for +3 to offenses, First Aid 4, Status Immunity, Quick Cure, and a 40% chance to heal with Leer.   Listen.  It's not that it's strictly bad.  It's that it doesn't do anything useful.  This is a stall mon.  A stall mon that functionally accomplishes the same goal as BP Erika and Lucy.  Sure, she's more defensive, and has more passive healing.  That's not a terrible thing.   But this isn't...needed.  Like, the combination of BP Erika/BP Clemont accomplishes the same thing for free.  So forgive me if I kinda feel like Agatha is a BP unit in disguise, given defensive stats above that weight class and locked to limited for no reason.

ETHAN Ethan got his grid expansion!  He's literally the only one!  For some fucking reason!  No common EX, no other general pool, not even a PokeFair expansion! Just Ethan.  Alola’s hated so bad that even Johto outranks them.  But don't worry!  He got Brainpower!  Because fuck Caitlin!  Oddly, his upgrade seems just as bad, if not worse.   Critical Eye on X Sp Atk is okay but leaves him with three turn setup, while Caitlin got two.  Initial Guard is fine but it's not like it's doing a ton beyond preserving Eruption damage slightly.  And Recuperation 1 is fine, but given Lodge Lillie, I think Synchro Healing would've bee justifiable.  Recuperation 2 at the very least, since he's a striker.  I dunno, this is...kind of another stinker.  I think they got us, guys.  I think they found out the general pool upgrades were too good and started making them worse on purpose.

SOLGALEO Solgaleo gains an EX and expansion, and admittedly, I'm curious.  Solgaleo sucks as a sync nuke, I'm curious what they'll give it.  Critical Eye on its Trainer Move means Sharp Entry finishes the job, immaculate self-setup, called it. Haymaker good.  BOGO on its trainer move is fantastic.   Furious Brain is a delightful multiplier as well, considering how easy it is to cap.  Solgaleo eatin good.

FINAL THOUGHTS I have many.  The Tapu are interesting, I will credit them for that.   Instead of just playing to their one role as a Terrain setter, they included some interesting variety that is...well, not good, per se.   Only Acerola's double effect combo overlaps.  Grassy Terrain and Sun are a venn diagram that is also a circle; grass types love this.  But compared to the SS Morty/SS Lyra combo, the role compression doesn't offer anything truly substantial that isn't covered in the initial core.  A major reason SS Kris and SS Morty and Ingo worked so well when they came out was that their buffing kits combined with the field effects opened up options for debuffers and the like.  And that's still technically true, but SS Lyra's flinch and Morty's god-tier healing more than made up for the lack of Leer, you know?  I don't find her essential.  Hau and Mina, by comparison, and wildly bad, having almost nothing that appreciates the combination of their Zone and Terrain/Weather.  No Fairy also needed Electric Terrain or Rain.  So instead of being role compression, they're just...able to support two different styles.  Which is fine, for the record.  I think the other aspects they offer are sound. Really, it's Lele that loses this round hard.  While infinite Psychic Terrain is a blessing, she struggles with the same thing as, say, Champion Hop.   Everyone you could support is worse than you, so why would you bother being a support?  You're a striker, and you're better at it than they are.  Lean into that.  So I actually think Lana has the least value of all four, which hurts my entire soul, because I was legitimately hopeful on Lele's introduction being a solid option.  But I guess this leaves the door open for a Psychic Terrain support?  Maybe Caitlin stands a chance after all (she does not).

The Variety scouts are bad.  Lance has some nice tools, but isn't exactly going to break records.  He's just better than the others, which is a low bar.   Agatha is probably the worst of the set, offering basically nothing that I consider valuable. She'll be useful in Gauntlet as a general blanket check to basically everything, but I really feel like you can get the job done with free pairs and miss nothing. Additionally, Ethan's expansion is fairly poor, so even that's not all that exciting. At least Solgaleo is doing well for itself.

Do I feel like this month could be safely skipped?  Probably.

Hau is good 1/5 for the archetypes he supports, so he's worth a copy.

Mina is okay at 1/5, but I think 3/5 is fairly necessary for Team Sharp Entry to save buffing turns, and the second application of Zone for her low DPS allies.

Acerola at 1/5 emulates the SS Morty/SS Lyra comp well enough, but isn't as reliable, unless you got SC Steven.

Lana is a greedy Psychic Striker whose "Support" is being stronger than her allies but at least she doesn't consume gauges so you have dual strike comps right?  1/5 is fine.

Variety Agatha is just BP Erika with Leer and some recovery, nothing BP Clemont couldn't do for stall.   Good news is, 1/5 will get your needed tools just fine.

Variety Lance is solid DPS and Tech sync from what I can see, but isn't breaking any new borders with what he does.  3/5 kinda necessary for the tech, though Hyper Beam DPS is fine 1/5.

Ethan's upgrade is kinda butt.

Solgaleo is now self-sufficient and has real multipliers, which is nice.

I dunno.  It's weird.  I think everything has some utility, even though nothing is groundbreaking.  What's odd is that there's an argument that all of them are fine 1/5.  In the era of 5/5 PokeFair, it's odd to have so many that are like...yeah, 1/5 will do just fine actually.  I dunno. Is anyone else weirded out by this?  It's weird.

[thatsadorbsyo]

Lucas - Reclamation

((cw: non-graphic sexual themes))

The Twelveswood reminds me of my mother’s homeland, but that’s a place I can only ever see in the hazy golden-green of childhood nostalgia, and I’m never quite sure if these are memories that I have of a real place, or if my imagination cobbled them together from her stories and my impressions. I’m not immune to that particular breed of infantile whimsy where things like pixies feel just as real as the sunlight on your face, and Gridania is a little bit like that. It’s alive in a way that makes me feel stupid, like nothing I’ve trained for could prepare me for the simple awe of looking up in a dark cave to see roots as thick as my whole body jutting out of the ceiling like the vaulted arches of a chapel sanctuary.

This place is full of that kind of shit, and I’ve never felt more foreign than I do around the density of Nophica’s fat bounty. I feel unshielded, unprepared, painfully seen by the matron and her vines that creep into every breach in my defenses like nature taking back an abandoned castrum. I am caught flat-footed by the simple intimacy of an unshakable truth: I am lonely here, without you.

I sit on the forest floor with my scabbed hands curled in my lap, palms open for Nophica’s green vines to hold like a tangle of fingers, and I imagine a different kind of intimacy: the anguish of letting someone like you roll me over the hard-packed dirt until my shell splits and cracks open, sliding away to reveal that I am not a man of nature’s meat and bones but rather of intelligently crafted cogs and wires, kept chugging in perpetual motion by a fine clockwork heart. I’m a creature of careful stasis and painfully susceptible to inertia, but, fuck, I do love having a worthy stimulus to react to. I feel soft heat, I taste the tang of blood, and every servomotor in my body begins to spin with agonizing friction.

That’s a long and incredibly fucking stupid way of saying that I can’t stop thinking about your mouth. I love how you open up for me so I can taste myself on you--and you should know that when I say this, it’s not admiration; it’s narcissism. You take the familiar and uncomfortable parts of me and make them strange and palatable by putting them in the novel frame of your obscene lips.

The clarity I find under the living white noise of the forest tells me that what I want, what I really fucking want, is for you to speak my name into my mouth until the hot, imperious moisture of your breath starts to rust all of my gears, until abrasion makes all the motion inside of me come to a flaking, shuddering stop. Lucas, I hear you say. Lucas, Lucas, not Nevin but Lucas, because my name is gilded in a false gold that will soften and dent under your canines, and splitting my skin is the holiest thing you can do with that mouth your father gave you.

Being surrounded by all this natural fucking splendor emboldens me to meditate on a more perfect world, one where you put your hands on me and this time I don’t stop you. My brass buttons slip through your fingers like three more of my tarnished wishing coins pinking into the river, and when your fist slides into my clothes, the feeling that I get is a little more like if you grasped my throat and throttled me with a tyrannical clench.

Fuck, you’re so good at this.

A flush rises to my cheeks to remind me that there are honest parts of me yet; my body has reactions that I still cannot control. The warm rush of my blood tells the truth even when my mouth is too busy sucking on your bottom lip to fashion a suitable lie about how I don’t spend every conversation aching to kiss you. Not because I like you--make no mistake, you are the most impetuous piece of decorated dog meat that I’ve ever met--but because being furious with you makes me feel more at ease than any amount of loose flattery from everyone else. That’s fucked up, isn’t it?

It’s fucked up, but it’s my truth, and the truth needs to be spoken aloud to the gods even when it’s embarrassing and inconvenient. I have to own it, don’t I? That’s how this works.

I open my mouth to invoke you--yes, you--under the dappled light of these holy, ancient trees. I open my mouth to whisper your name in a blasphemous tone, in the hopes that this will suffice in place of a more thorough accounting of the schism you’ve created in me, but all I can get out is an aborted syllable before the boughs around me explode without warning into the furious beat of a dozen black wings. Jerking forward a few ilms as though stumbling ass-first out of a dream, I awake to find a flock of crows screaming to the clouds that they have perceived my sins and judged me disloyal.

Well... shit, man, what else is new?

[alpenlyriker]

Crowd(s). Individual – human, many people – individuals. Crowds. Man, few people – minorities. Medium, media – mainstream media. Mass manipulation. Activities. Mass fear. Mass hysteria. Majority. Minority. Mass testing. Mass immunity. Mass events. Mass movements. Media groups. Multimedia corporations. Mass trials. Mass exodus. Mass vaccinations. Mass expropriations mass testing. Mass attitude. Mass extinction. Mass incitement. Mass murders. Inertia. Mass dead. Mass destruction. Mass protests. Mass manipulation. Mass madness. Mass psychosis. Mass panic. Mass disaster. Mass extinction. Masses of stupidity. Mass influencing. Mass destruction. Mass suicide. Mass crime. I am a person, an individual, every single one in the crowd is that! Do not forget what you are and who you are!

[heatherwitch]

My Spoonie Sigils 2.0

Tumblr won’t let me edit my own posts so I had to make a new version!

UPDATED: 5/16/19

These are designed to supplement medication, medical care, and professional treatment. You do not have my permission to use these as a sole alternative for those methods. Please be responsible with your health. 

Energy/Motivation:

Dispel unwanted high energy

I have enough energy to complete tasks

Work doesn’t drain my energy so quickly

I have the energy to take care of myself

I get extra energy throughout the day

I have enough spoons to get through the day

I have enough spoons

I have the energy and motivation to take a shower

I am motivated; I go on

I have energy and motivation

I have the power to do

I find the will to keep going

Pain:

My muscles are relaxed

Bye-bye back stiffness

Ease my neck pain

Ease my lower back and hip pain

My back is relaxed and free from pain

Ease my joint pain

My headache goes away

Ease my morning headaches

Ease my migraine

Ease my chest pains

Ease the pain and fatigue of EDS

Ease my fibromyalgia

Ease my endometriosis pain

My arthritis is manageable

My pain is manageable

I am able to walk (with minimal pain)

I find moments of peace from my pain

Symptoms:

I fall asleep easily

I sleep soundly for my desired length of time

Stay still while sleeping (sleepwalking)

My chronic pain does not affect my sleep

Relief from endometriosis symptoms

I have minimal IBS symptoms

Ease my stomach ache/pain

I eat a healthy amount of nourishing food

Soothe my sore throat

Breathe easy

Balance my blood pressure

My blood pressure is a healthy level

My blood sugars balance

My legs are steady

My focus will not falter

My joints are stable

I avoid dislocations and subluxations

Boost my immune system

Ease the unbearable itchiness/my body does not itch

I tune out my tinnitus

Healing:

My injuries heal

I heal quickly

I recover swiftly from illness

Mental illness:

I can leave my home comfortably

My mental illnesses do not hinder me

Free me from my PTSD/chronic trauma

Ease the anger I experience related to mental illness

My anxiety does not control me

My anxiety does not stop or limit me when speaking with others

Ease my panic attacks

My trauma does not hold me back

Brainfog begone

My mind is clear

My mind is quiet

I am grounded, and in control of my emotions + reactions

I keep rational state of mind

Balance my bipolar disorder

I can harness all hypomanic energy

My alters work together (D.I.D)

OCD does not interfere with my day

My ROCD will subside

My depression will dissipate

Ease depression induced sickness

I resist the urge to pick my skin

I keep from picking

I don’t pull out my hair or eyelashes

I do not disassociate

I am verbal

I combat sensory overload and avoid meltdowns

My hypersensitivity is manageable

I combat inertia

Other:

My body manages intensive treatment

My shots are not painful

I remember to take my medication

People are patient with my disability

People are patient with my dietary restrictions

I accept change related to injury and illness

I learn to accept my illness

I gently change my expectations

Others understand and accept my illness

I attract money (without having to work)

I am able to manage my pain at work

I am able to clean and organize without pain

I am able to carry on through pain

I find strength in pain

I have the strength to do my physiotherapy exercises

My hospital visit is productive and successful

My doctor’s appointment goes smoothly and yields helpful results

My doctors listen to and believe me

DONATIONS - “What is a spoonie?” [X] - Spoonie specific sigils ALWAYS open + ALWAYS free!

[wings-of-a-storm]

Hello! Don’t even know why I’m writing this but I’ve been highly entertained by the fandom self-combusting after what Axel said to that fan who told everybody on Twitter. Really, what he said could mean anything, and it’s really amusing to see people losing it, trying to analyze what he meant by that. I’m worried about it myself, but with what’s been happening since Friday, I can’t wait for the rest of the episode. How are you handling it so far? Do you reckon the episode will finish on a high?

Anon, you very nearly gave me the giggles. We just can’t help ourselves, can we? It is completely Skam culture to be handed a crumb and to try and make a feast out of it. Even when we don’t know if the crumb is a figment of our imagination.

WHY ARE WE LIKE THIS? (100% rhetorical.)

As for this Axel (feat David) comment, I’ve been at work for most of the wildfire, so I’ve been rather protected from it. I saw a few things though. Like the legit possibility that Axel is just being Axel ;). His remark could be anything and nothing, just as you say. We will achieve close to nill by speculating, but gosh, hand us any excuse to talk about Skam and our souls can feel a little at ease in this clip-by-clip purgatory.

It’s not even really unexpected that we still have some more angst ahead of us. Particularly with the Eliott situation, which very clearly has a lot more mileage to cover before it can be resolved. We been knew. I guess the fun part is trying to figure out exactly which way our deaths will play out. Surely by now we’ve reached a cap on Lucas Tears for one episode, but we still have some stock left of Physical Altercations and this jar of Eliott Tears hasn’t been opened yet, so lucky us!

How am I handling it? Clearly I’ve almost reached hysteria. But no, I’ve fortunately been gifted with an ailment called masochism ;). I like the way Skam France makes me feel things and then shocks me by making me feel things I thought I’d be immune to by now. 

So basically I am super excited to see how the rest of this extended hell week plays out. If you’ve seen any of my previous Answers, you’ll see how very much on board I am to see an end to those drawings -- drawings mean nothing when nothing has changed. It’s just cruel at this point to lead Lucas on just because Eliott can’t stay away and let it be a clean break. I am so ready for Lucas to stand up for himself. (I may have groaned out loud when Lucas found the Fate drawing in his pocket. Whoops.) If an actual face-to-face confrontation rids Lucas of this relationship inertia, then I am all for it -- even if there are tears involved.

I know it makes me sound horrendously cruel to Eliott but I actually relate to him the most, which is probably why I want him to win over his fears and trust others with his mental illness so muchhhh. Sometimes when you are stuck in your own purgatory, you need an outside force to give you a firm push into a healthier state of mind. (I say this as if I don’t know that the wrong kind of push can send you into a worse place, which is a fundamental part of the plot probably still to come but shhhhhh!)

Do I think the episode will end on a high? If they want to still fit the bipolar storyline into the show (in whatever form), then yes I think the episode will (and should) end on a high. If they weren’t to end this episode on a high then I’d worry about the health of Elu’s relationship. There is only so much suffering someone can take before things tip over into toxicity. I think realistically, Lucas will need to have this ‘bad’ encounter with Eliott before the end of the episode, in lieu of the Gang helping Lucas give last minute text ultimatums. That way Lucas and Eliott can find common ground again and be free to feel that beautiful love they share.

So yep, if Axel is hinting that Eliott and Lucas will have a confrontation to end this hellish limbo, then I say THANK GOD.

[audio-luddite]

IGD

Sounds like a medical condition. Inner Groove Distortion is it written out. It is the nasty buzzing insect sound that often occurs in the last song of an LP side. It indicates poor adjustment of the hardware or at least poor ability to cope. Or both.

My system is blissfully free of it. I believe one of the great advantages of a linear tangential tracking tone arm is if not immunity at least significant freedom from IGD. Why? See below.

IGD is typically the mistracking of a cartridge as it gets close to the center of the record. The tiny needle bounces around in the groove rather than faithfully following it. Part of this is insufficient downward force or tracking weight. Part is with a pivoting arm the cartridge azimuth is misaligned by being twisted with respect to being tangent with the groove. And part is that the velocity of the LP groove passing the pickup is about half of the ideal so the wiggles are compressed closer together. Also the anti-skating force if not perfectly adjusted will imbalance one side of the groove compared to the other. Anti-skate is at best a compromise so is always off somewhere.

If everything is working against you the insect like buzz happens.

My classic set up with the Grace 707 and the Shure V15 III occasionally manifested it. Two albums in particular had it. Emmylou Harris "1/4 moon..." album and Paul Simon "there goes rhyming simon" would go buzzy. I am an inveterate tweak and the V15 was supposed to be the finest tracking pickup out there. I adjusted everything until it was the least possible IGD. Very often it did not happen.

Tracking force and anti-skate load were the usual fixes.

When I went to pickups with higher frequency response it helped a lot. The Signet TK7e was usually free of IGD. As it could respond to 45 khz the tightly compressed inner wiggles were well within its capacity. It is not that they were higher frequency, just the demands of the inner groove were similar to having to respond to high frequency. But that did not address azimuth drift or varying anti-skate.

With Linear trackers there is no anti-skate required. Also the Azimuth is the same all across the album. There are those that say it is always wrong by a bit. Pivot arms if perfectly set up are right in two places in the arc and wrong everywhere else. Sort of like a clock that is stopped being right twice a day. Not a bad analogy. So in a linear tracker Two of the four problems are gone. It becomes much easier as you only have to select a well tracking cartridge and get the right vertical force.

The downside is there are not that many really good linear trackers out there. The B&Os are usually really good if well taken care of or restored. But they only have a single (very good) source of pickups. Not cheap at all but less than some.

The absolute high end has a few available.

This is a Goldmund. (from their website)

This is a Clear Audio (from their website)

If you have to ask how much well......

There are a number of roughly 30 year old Japanese TTs with linear tracking and reasonable cost. Typically they are both very good and around $2k in good shape.

This is a Mitsubishi from a CAM listing.

This is a Yamaha PX3.

Of course the Pioneer PL1000 family of which mine is silver.

All of these have interchangeable head shells so you can mount different pickups with ease. There are several places to get them refurbished.

Also you can find several "frictionless" air bearing linear tone arms. I do not like them. They may have very low friction, but still have inertia. The ones above all have active lateral drives.

If you are patient and lucky you may even find an Harman Kardon STx

It has both good and bad things about it. If in good condition and tweaked you can have a fine time. It is usually well under $1000. I spent $250 for my ST5 and $300 for upgraded feet and dynamat. It uses a very clever active mechanical drive.

I have fully defeated IGD with my system without excessive tracking force. Even the records noted above are crystal clear with no trace of the buzzy bugs.

[fidei]

COOL HAND LUKE

“I have no one with me but Luke.” —2 Timothy 4:11

St. Luke compiled his Gospel and the Acts of the Apostles not to describe how good things were in the early Church but to address how bad things were becoming after the first generation of Christianity. The Christian community got bogged down with internal problems and was no longer motivated to evangelize. The Church was lukewarm (Rv 3:16). Luke composed his Gospel and Acts of the Apostles to change this.When things go wrong and discouragement begins to set in, it’s hard to be the only one motivated and immune to the prevailing apathy. However, Luke moved when no one felt like moving, tried when not many were trying, hoped when the stench of despair polluted the spiritual atmosphere. We likewise live in a lukewarm, apathetic environment. We need Luke to show us we can break free from the inertia of sin and the paralysis of selfishness.The harvest is rich, but the workers continue to be few (Lk 10:2). We need Luke to give us hope, give us a jump-start, and proclaim: “The reign of God is at hand” (Lk 10:9).

Prayer:  Father, may I stop complaining and start believing, loving, and working.

Promise:  “Be on your way and remember: I am sending you as lambs in the midst of wolves.” —Lk 10:3

Praise:  “Luke, our dear physician, sends you greetings” (Col 4:14). As St. Paul foreshadowed, the Catholic Church honors St. Luke as the patron of physicians. St. Luke, pray for our healing!

[mintybreakfast]

It's that time of night again... Where I write something stupid.

What is on my mind tonight, eh?

Principally, how we in America just celebrated the fourth of July. Also how we, in America (and I'm not familiar with exactly how this is going in the rest of the world) are required to wear masks everywhere we go (so as to not infect my neighbor's grandmother). Also because wearing masks in "public" (whatever that means) is mandatory in the land of the free. And if you don't wear a mask in the land of the free, you're killing your neighbor's grandmother and you should therefore be jailed because you're obviously too selfish to be free.

For real tho... Are we all really this fucking stupid?

The hot water... Are we really as stupid as the frog in that pan? Waiting until it's boiling and there's no escape?

But then... What can we do?

And, who are "we" in the first place?

I don't fully agree with Trump on everything, and I definitely don't fully agree with anything else that's been going on.

So wtf am I to do?!

Am I gonna have to pick sides? Cus you're both fucking retarded. I'm not dying on either one of your pathetic hills.

My understanding of the universe goes well beyond what you idiots have been fighting over.

Essentially, there are forces at work here that none of us understand. We all need to take steps back and evaluate ourselves and our positions.

It all comes down to fluid dynamics.

History has an inertia behind it and that inertia is not immune to the universal laws of fluid dynamics.

My philosophy doesn't adhere to "right" or "left".

My philosophy adheres to my understanding of the fluidic motion of matter within this universe

[7wolfmoon]

in-inertia​:

Hm. Well. I was, at the very least. Now, I’m not sure what the best course of action is. Nonetheless, I believe contacting Ægir to be a necessity in combatting the Seaborn scourge. Ægir’s body of research on the creatures alone would prove invaluable to finding a solution. The Seaborn are too numerous, and are constantly evolving—long-term warfare is doomed to failure, and so we’ve begun searching for other means.

It’s been eighteen years since I’ve begun fighting the Seaborn. They’re a rather unique threat, immune to most conventional tactics, and I’m a weapon honed towards their extermination. In truth, I was only put into peril because I refused to allow one of my men to die. That such a scenario ever transpired is a mistake I will not allow to happen again.

I am curious, though. What sort of ‘horrible beasties?’

ahem.

So thge SEaborn  are itntelligent foes, if I’m understnading correctyly? Intentionally preventing y ou form gathering hte information that would be the most beneficail in bringing them down..,,,, IUt only makes hsense that creautre s from another realm would fucntion different ly thatn what I’m used to though.

I doubt tyou neecd any reassurance=s but it sounbds  like yoyu’re a worhty leader. I hoep your labors abear furit soon,.

OH, you nknow., SElkidomious, slitherbeasts,, chrimeras,  bugbaears. the usual horrirb le beast and bug dmeon sorts.

[catherineadunphy]

One more thing....

Late summer I was diagnosed with Lymphocytic Colitis- an autoimmune disease most likely caused by my treatment for another autoimmune disease (RA).

Needless to say this new diagnosis has taken some getting use too, actually it has upended my life.

It’s hard not feeling smothered by the avalanche of autoimmune diagnoses.

In many ways It feels like they have hijacked my life. I’m constantly bombarded by pain and symptoms. But yet I want to move forward so I keep attempting to manage, medicate - to be as well as I can be.

So much of having a chronic illness, is the inertia that grabs hold of your life and stops progress. You are left to just be in that moment- aware of the tediousness of holding out for relief. Relief in the form of drugs, or the abyss of sleep that you hope is restorative.

Mostly it’s an excercise in acceptance. I’m not giving up.

But, I know I can’t stop this train track my immune system is blazing down.

I try to appease myself by managing what I eat, how much I eat, when I sleep, for how long. How much I stand, if I can walk with minimum pain. I think constantly of these little things that most people don’t have to bother thinking about - and it is exhausting.

In all of this suffering, do I cry out in the wilderness asking god why I have been forsake?

Nope. There is no god that can heal me, no faith that can transform bone deformed by inflammation. No saint that can restore me to health.

Giving up the god of my childhood meant giving up an intangible secret meaning imprinted in all my suffereing.

Now I am confronted by my acceptance that my sufferering has no meaning. I am not a beacon of hope for others. I’m not closer to Jesus because I understand suffering. My pain does not purify me. I cannot and will not offer it up.

It just is.

I like to think of my pain-experience as not dissimilar to the way the moon is scarred by the impact of asteroids colliding with its orbit.

Both events are indeterminate, void of intent. They happened, and will continue to happen. There is no stopping it.

I must accept that this is nothing personal. Just a statistical anomaly. And I’m an ordinary person, living a chronic reality.

Next step, #tomorrow.

[michaeldempsey]

3/20 Market Views

Disclaimer: This is more for scalable sending notes and personal accountability. Not a professional public market investor, not investment advice, likely all bad advice from someone spending not nearly enough time researching public market dynamics. Also not really editing these pre-posting.

First - we published our letter to LPs on how we’re thinking about COVID-19 and our portfolio/venture investing broadly. Read it here.

It seems like public markets are set to open and rebound again today (after a small up day yesterday. I bought new, short dated S&P puts (April 17th) as I believe I misjudged the ramp time for the market’s understanding of economic impact due to massive losses to hospitality sectors, tied with ramp time of cases and more drastic measures creating volatility (that said, Gov. Newsom shut down California last night).

With respect to hospitality, I don’t think we have a good understanding for just how much food is falling off a cliff (regardless of delivery), and both the ramp down time (almost immediate) as well as the ramp back up time in an economic downturn (restauranteurs that were burned and forced to bankrupt aren’t going to just all sign new leases, hire staff, and go right back into business at the first sign of neutralization of COVID-19, and investors aren’t going to come back to the table either). As many have pointed out, hospitality employs a similar number of people to manufacturing, however the fragmentation and inertia needed to re-enter the labor force for manufacturing even feels lower than restaurants. There will be more stark economic impacts than we think, however I don’t have deep confidence in when that will become priced into the market (and send markets down further, as I believe we’re directionally going).

If I were to bet (I am.) I’d guess that markets hold steady today and sell off into the weekend. But I don’t feel great about that outside for the fact that we know there is some point in time where the CDC needs to step in and give an update, and based on spiking cases, I’m not sure people want to be holding equities over the weekend.

Other Notes

- There’s more research to be done on understanding when are the earnings reports for companies that have taken a less than market hit (a lot of tech) and understanding how analysts have revised their earnings reports. Based on all the narratives floating around surrounding procurement and things we’ve talked about here, I’d imagine there are some poorly understood revisions that need to happen. Especially interesting if we can understand customer composition for usage-based pricing models (think API-centric businesses) and work through the secondary effects of customer slowdowns. Possible this has been priced in, but likely not across the board.

https://twitter.com/garrytan/status/1240684513677590528

Garry brings up a good point that due to reduced spending from larger palyers we’re seeing ad costs and overall CAC begin to fall for some categories. That said, I’m not sure how the other side of the CAC equation will swing in terms fo converting users to purchase. It is a fun time to experiment and perhaps we’ll see newer brands benefit but my general sentiment seems to be that enterprises are freezing new procurement and consumers aren’t exactly fleeing to spend discretionary income.

https://twitter.com/eladgil/status/1240580676664979457

Elad brings up a good point here, but also, it’s remarkable how fast we’ve seen sentiment begin to turn from “we know we fucked up, but everyone needs to distance for us to get through this” to “we fucked up, it’s unacceptable, and we need to get through this, but...the economy?” This change has happened in <7 days (Elad and many other smart people have been worrying about COVID-19 in the US for far longer). I’m not sure what the right answer is but IMO this is a dangerous rallying cry at this point in the quarantine cycle as we don’t understand what has already happened yet, and we are having enough trouble as is encouraging responsible behavior by large swaths of the population. TLDR; I get it, but I don’t deeply oppose Elad’s view on econimic destruction being worse than human destruction, but I do oppose ringing the counter-narrative bell right now.

Listen to kevin please and read his thread here. Layoffs are happening already and we’re going to see them accelerate over the next few weeks into startups at scale.

What a shitshow the UK policy around COVID-19 turned into. The comparisons between Trump and Boris Johnson only continue, but it feels like where Trump says stupid things and probably knows he doesn’t know what he’s saying, Johnson genuinely believes he’s smarter than everyone. At least, until a group of scientists, economists, and more all come to him and tell him he’s going to kill a large portion of the population of his country. I personally was intrigued by what could have been the largest A/B test in recent human history, but alas, we’ll have to wait for the next pandemic for someone to go hard into the herd immunity route at a material scale.