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lordadmiralfarsight · 4 months ago

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Boat touching : shipping edition

"Rule for thee, but not for me ! Grab ‘em by the boaty !" - Trump, apparently

As you may or may not have heard, President Trump, the world’s most economically illiterate dorito (no, he is not a tangerine, he is far too salty for that) has decided that China is being bad on the waters of the 7 seas too, and has decided that the perfect retaliation to such dishonor would be a tax on Chinese ships. Yes, yes, not products, ships. That come into US ports. With stuff on board. Those ships. One might expect a nation that so passionately tells the world ‘don’t touch our boats’ to understand that molesting other peoples’ fleet may not be conductive to a better situation, but alas, here we apparently are going. So, since this is a rather niche topic, but with wide reaching consequences, I have decided to continue in my glorious efforts to become the Economy Side of Tumblr (what has my life come to) and explain just how deeply and passionately boned we are if this goes from proposal to law.

The facts

First off, let us set this stage with the letter of the (proposed) law.

The text (called USTR) has 3 tax triggers :

- The ship is operated by a Chinese company, 500K to 1 million dollars of entry fee

- The ship is chinese-made or its owner company has chinese-made ships, 500K to 1,5 million dollars of entry fee

- The company ordered a ship in China, 500K to 1 million dollars of entry fee

It is currently unclear to me if those fees are cumulative, despite looking it up, I could not find an answer at this time, the only thing clear is that the fee, whatever it ends up being, will be paid at each entry into a US port. I suspect the cumulativity of the fees will be left to interpretation and later deliberation, which creates deep economic uncertainty, easily one of the most hateful kinds of uncertainty.

I mean, not knowing if you’re ordering oatmeal or chocolate cookies is already bad enough, but not knowing if the ship carrying them to your shores is going to pay 500k to 1,5 million dollars or 500K to 3,5 million dollars PER STOP is just … that ruins the cookies regardless of what you get. No amount of milk can salvage that. In large parts because, at this point, each cookie may end up costing as much as the entire bottle of milk.

“Oh hoho, oh Admiral, you jokester, you jester, you funny person you”, you say desperately hoping that I am joking. But you are desperate for a reason. There is no humor here, there is no mirth or hope or joy, only suffering and taxes. And barnacles. Those get everywhere on topics related to the sea. But mostly taxes.

Second, container ships tend to make 3 to 4 stops in US ports for a single trip (as explained in this lovely article from the Cato Institute), which results in a total potential sum of 1,5 to 14 million dollars. Per ship. For a single trip. You can scream now.

Third, how many companies could be affected by this issue ? I do not have a precise number, in large parts because “who has Chinese ships” wasn’t exactly a metric that got tracked before, but the answer to that question is in an order of magnitude scientifically called “a metric fuckton”. You see, the chinese fleet of cargo ships represents 19% of the global total of cargo ships. And I mean ocean-going cargo ships. So that’s a good 5th of worldwide maritime trade having to scrape off even their barnacles to try and make payments. But that’s just Chinese companies. You also have to take into account that China has 50% of all shipbuilding market shares, meaning it builds half the commercial ships in the world. Among which are 95% of container ships. The big chunky bois, those that can get to lengths greater than the Nimitz class super-carriers operated by the US Navy and do a respectable 2/3rd of their width. Oh, and China also does 86% of intermediate sized cargo ships.

Fourth, fun fact : big container ship dockyards stopped operating in the US in 1980. You know, just in case you thought you could revive that industry quickly, or on the cheap, or on the costly. Or at all, really. Building those big ships is VERY costly, and takes very long, and also there’s no adapted infrastructure in the US for ships of that size outside of military dockyards (which are already being used, thank you). So between the cost to build the new dockyards, train employees, build the ship itself and recruit and train a crew … Oh, and the end result would likely not even be competitive price-wise. You know, just in case you had any hope left for that.

Five, SALVATION ! One can have their entry fees waved, if only they have a USA made ship enter into a US port with stuff on board, huzzah, Trump 5D chess confirmed !!!! All you have to do is have a US-made ship enter a US port for each Chinese-made ship that does the same ! Surely, the overbooked, chronically late, undersized ship-building industry of the US will be up to the challenge !!!! Yeah, no, I can’t keep this up any longer. That’s not going to work. It’s not even being spoken about in most of the articles I’ve seen, that’s how insignificant in reality that measure is.

Boat touching, and why it is a bad idea

Now, let’s talk about the funny part : the consequences ! Aaaah, FO, what a wonderful acronym. Am I telling people to fuck off or to find out ? What suspense !

First off, the obvious : if the fee is on entry into US ports, why not go elsewhere ? Good question ! And honestly, it’s likely that it will happen, to some degree. The obvious answer would be Mexico or Canada, but it’s unlikely they could absorb all that transit, which would results in slow-downs (and thus, lost money) in a lot of logistic chains. As you may have guessed, disrupted logistic chains aren’t exactly economically tasty.

Mexico in particular doesn’t have that many ports adapted to such large ships and large numbers of containers, meaning there’d be even more slow-downs. And then there’s the issue of getting the goods across the border, and Trump can definitely decide to slap on even more tariffs, he’s like that. So more slow-downs for even more costs ! Yay ! But meanwhile, US ports would still see lower numbers of ships coming through, meaning less activity and less cash-flow, meaning job losses.

Second, you have to consider the impact on US exports. Because you see, Chinese-made or owned ships don’t just come in, drop stuff off and disappear over the horizon with a vaguely oriental soundtrack, we’re in reality, with serious people, they drop containers off in 3 or 4 ports, all while picking up containers of US exports at each stop. So the fees to sail into port will be spread on both the foreign imports and on US exports. Meaning US exports will cost more, compounded by retaliatory tariffs. Meaning competitors will be cheaper, or even than US products will leave reasonable price ranges. Either way, loss of sales and income for US companies, and thus loss of jobs.

Third, this will increase prices inside the US, once again compounded by tariffs, but this time Trump’s tariffs. Either way, this will increase prices of products, likely pricing out entire communities, or making entire companies economically non-viable. As you guesses, that means job losses, but also loss of comfort.

Fourth, some degree of economic chaos as worldwide shipping reorganizes to face this new and unpleasant situation. And that will likely hit everyone to some degree, so expect some grudges to spawn from that, too.

In conclusion, while there is reasonable concern to be had about China’s dominance of shipbuilding, Trump’s measures will do a grand total of fuck all to solve that issue. All they will really do is make the situation worse and costlier for the US. The measure aims for an impossibility (speedy resurrection of a US shipbuilding sector for large scale cargo ships) without doing anything to support that or to make such an activity economically viable in the US. It is, in effect, an economic scarification ritual, based entirely on the idea that by hurting others and themselves and incantating enough, the US will be able to magic viable dockyards into existence and produce ships quickly.

I hope I don’t have to explain why that’s not realistic. And honestly, I am almost impressed, it’s incredible to come up with a policy that harms that many different economic agents in your own country. Honestly, at this point, I don’t know if Trump’s economic policies are dictated by The Most Incompetent failed student, or by a squad of drunk chimps going ham on a typewriter and somehow randoming their way into only the worst possible economic policies. If Trump suddenly subsidizes banana plantations, we’ll know, and likely be in better hands, even with how psychotic chimps are.

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chimerafeathers · 2 months ago

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i really love how intensely Mirabelle reacts to act 5 Siffrin botched friendquest.

Isabeau is mostly operating out of concern and, eventually, hurt. he already knows something’s up before Siffrin gets to him. he knows something truly awful must be wrong for Siffrin to be lashing out like they are, and as soon as he can’t handle the situation anymore, he leaves and asks (with strained cheer) for time apart to cool off.

most of Bonnie’s anger comes from being upset and afraid that Siffrin would willingly put themself in danger for no reason, when that’s exactly why they’ve been so unsettled since the eye incident. they hate that Siffrin values their own life so little, they hate that they’re the cause of any pain or loss for him, and here he is, putting himself in that situation AGAIN. on purpose. it’s loud and explosive, but it’s familiar, too, being “hated” by Bonnie for this reason.

Odile pushes, and keeps pushing, until her concern overwhelms Siffrin and they strike where they know she’s most vulnerable. she gets physical, just for a moment, grabbing his collar before controlling herself and letting go. her fury shuts down into cold detachment, and she walks away.

but Mirabelle—dear, sweet, gentle, loving Mirabelle, “the most wonderful being on earth,” with her secret “ruthless side” that largely involves lightly badmouthing people behind their backs and then apologizing—slaps them. immediately.

and then COMPLETELY RENOUNCES THEIR FRIENDSHIP.

not just “we’re not friends anymore,” but “we were never friends in the first place.”

that’s!!! pretty extreme!!!!

of course, she ALSO starts by asking what’s wrong. something must have happened for him to act like this. but as soon as Siffrin brushes her off, she jumps past that line of questioning and dives headfirst into re-evaluating everything she thought she knew about them as a a person.

if he could say something like that to her and not see anything wrong with it, then she was wrong to treat him as a friend, wrong to read camaraderie into his teasing, wrong to think they must care about them all under their aloof demeanor.

that’s how Mirabelle phrases it—“I was wrong about you”—but i think that there’s a hidden layer of I was right about you, too.

she talks about the way they tease her like she had to convince herself that he was doing it in a friendly way. she says they talk like they “know better than her” like that’s a thought she’s had for a LONG time.

“Always soooo mysterious, Siffrin, always talking as if you're better than me! As if you know me!!! But you don't, Siffrin!!! You're just as lost and useless as I am!!! So stop!!! Talking!!! As if you know me!!!!!!”

none of this comes across as a new, sudden way to view Siffrin for her. it doesn’t shock or confuse her. it makes her angry, defensive, almost like she was waiting for something like this to happen at some point. the feeling of resentment, frustration, jealousy, being patronized and condescended to—this is something she’s been actively pushing down and rejecting this entire time, but they’ve given her ample reason for it all to boil to the surface. violently.

Mirabelle’s kindness is not inherent or easy. it’s a choice she’s making. she treats Siffrin warmly because she gives him the benefit of the doubt—refusing to act based on anxiety-fueled, cynical speculation, and reassuring herself that his actions are driven by care and friendship even if she can’t quite see it.

“I was wrong about you” doesn’t mean she always and without question believed them to be a fundamentally kind, caring person from the beginning—it’s that her first, colder instincts were right, and she was wrong to convince herself otherwise.

never mind that she asked what was wrong at first. she barely gives them time to speak in their own defense, to explain what they really meant by what they said. all of her suppressed doubts and frustrations are getting aired out now, now that all the trust she’d so deliberately placed in him has been betrayed. her pain feels bigger than this singular moment, so when she hurts him back, she makes sure it extends back through the entirety of their relationship for him, too.

“You're awful. You're not my friend, not my ally, not anything. You never were.”

like the others, she goes back to the clocktower and tells Siffrin not to come back until later. but there’s a finality to the way she ends this confrontation that isn’t quite there with the others. Isabeau and Odile reach their breaking point and remove themselves from the situation, asking for space to cool off but still somewhat leaving the door open for Siffrin to tell them what’s really going on at some point. Mirabelle is the only one who tries to fully cut ties—after everything else she says, her “I don’t want to see you until tonight” reads to me somewhat as “I don’t want to see you anymore unless I have to.”

I can’t wait to never see you again.

even back at the clocktower, Mirabelle doesn’t really defend Siffrin’s place in the party when Odile suggests leaving them behind out of concern for their trustworthiness on the most important day of the journey. Isabeau and Bonnie protest out of sentimentality and faith in Siffrin’s abilities and connection to them, and Mirabelle agrees, but…

“I agree, but... B-But would he even agree to come with us, still? Maybe they won't even come back tonight...”

she doesn’t say much outside of that. maybe the stutter and hesitation here are signs of regret about how things happened, but she lacks Isabeau and Bonnie’s confidence that Siffrin even wants to come back to them in the first place. she doesn’t trust that their bond was real anymore. maybe it never was in the first place, or maybe she broke whatever was there herself.

and she’s still mad when they finally catch up to Siffrin at the King! and she makes sure Siffrin knows that—after saving them, assuring him that he no longer needs to fight, that they’re all there for him. she still cares, of course she still cares—she’s still hurt, too, but they can figure that part out once there’s less world-ending stuff going on.

she’s the first to say that they all reserve the right to still be angry at Siffrin later—and that they’ve already forgiven him.

she’s also the first to say we want to stay with you, too. it’s not just you.

she was wrong! she thought they didn’t care but they care so much, it’s overwhelming, it’s world-ending.

i think she’s gonna be wallowing in guilt post-canon the moment she remembers what she said and did TO SIFFRIN and not just what Siffrin said to her. especially now that she knows Siffrin’s exact hangups, and especially especially if she figures out what Siffrin was trying to say.

they put themself through hell out of loneliness and fear that none of the others cared about him the way he cared about them, he was going insane from repetition and exhaustion and hunger and trying to keep them all safe and together, and all they did in the midst of all that was say something kind of mean to her one time (that turned out to not even be MEANT to be mean it was supposed to be HELPFUL they just SAID IT ALL WRONG) and she SLAPPED THEM? and told him that they WEREN’T FRIENDS AT ALL??? how could she!!! she should have known better!! what they said hurt a lot but still!!!

so when they eventually manage to try to talk about it, they end up almost in, like, a guilt competition.

Mirabelle apologizing for how she reacted, that she shouldn’t have yelled or hit him, that she doesn’t want to be the kind of person who acts that way out of anger and she’s sorry that she made Siffrin expect that reaction from her, she should have known better and believed in him more and they only messed up like that because they were losing their mind in a time loop but what’s HER excuse—

and Siffrin going nononono stop I deserved it—(HUH DON’T SAY THAT NO YOU DIDN’T)—and that he should never have said such awful things to her, ever, and she was under so much pressure already with the weight of the country and everyone’s lives and futures and her religion and their whole party counting on her to do this impossible task because she’s the only one who can, all this unbearable expectation and hope crushing her, and they KNEW that but they thought they could skip to the ending as though her feelings didn’t matter at all, like helping her wasn’t as important as saving a little time—

until they’re just. in tears together, apologizing for all the horrible things they did in between complimenting each other’s strength and kindness and resilience and how much they admire each other and saying that no, everything you did was completely understandable, actually, the only one who sucks here is me. which neither of them will accept coming from the other!!

they’re so similar, in ways they couldn’t really understand, before.

warm, affectionate, perfect Mirabelle, the resolute hero, a beacon of compassion and hope for all those around her, who wears her heart on her sleeve, her fear making her courage shine all the brighter—nothing like the insignificant, forgettable Siffrin, too terrified to be known, too fragile to touch, too selfish and disgusting to bear letting go.

cool, mysterious, unflappable Siffrin, the worldly traveler, as charming and silly as they are confident and skilled, who brushed off losing an eye like it was nothing, accepting the risks of this journey with barely more than a shrug—nothing like the anxious, stagnant, undeserving Mirabelle, a fraud and a nobody crumbling under the weight of a mission too important to be entrusted to someone like her, doubting herself, doubting her friends, doubting her mentor, doubting her faith, too weak and brittle to bend and change the way the world needs her to without breaking.

not worth bothering others with their problems. they should be able to handle this alone. stay positive, stay calm. breathe in, and out.

they’ll struggle with it, still—the hiding, the minimizing—but now, they understand each other a little better. they can hold each other accountable for what they leave unsaid.

it’ll get easier, eventually. they have plenty of time.

#i!!! don’t know how to end posts!#this was supposed to be about One Quick Thought and then i just. kept going.#it’s REALLY LONG. SORRY?#some of this is a rehash of what i said in the mirabelle edition loop hangout post #i didn’t want to repeat EVERYTHING though so. no prologue discussion this time #isat #isat spoilers #in stars and time #in stars and time spoilers #isat mirabelle #isat siffrin #mypost #isat meta #mirasif qpr #it makes me wonder what other negative impressions she’s harboring about the others #surely siffrin isn’t the only one that she has twisted up somewhat in her head in ways that she has to talk herself out of #it’s a very anxiety-based behavior. making up worst-case stories in your head about yourself and other people #and having to remind yourself that those worst cases aren’t necessarily reality #the most obvious (to me) in the party would be comparing herself to Isabeau and feeling Some Type of Way about finding herself lacking #even if no one else sees it like that.#he’s strong he’s brave he’s reliable he’s heroic—he’s COMFORTABLE WITH CHANGE……#meanwhile she’s just!!! same old mirabelle!!!!!#incapable of changing in so many ways that seem so easy for everyone else! what’s wrong with her that she can’t!!!!#if it’s not clear absolutely none of this is like. critical or disparaging of mirabelle. i fucking adore her.#and her handling this the absolute Worst out of all of them (Bonnie included!) is part of that #LET HER BE MESSYYYYYY #btw for those familiar i’m picturing the guilt competition very much in Steven Vs Amethyst (steven universe) style

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